Wary investors fuel forex jitters

Wary investors fuel forex jitters

By Neil Dennis

Published: October 31 2008 10:48 | Last updated: October 31 2008 18:36

Foreign exchange markets experienced extreme volatility in October as recession-wary investors continued to shy away from risk and parked cash in the relative safety of yen and dollars.

Analysts said the financial crisis hit currency markets with a crunch in October. Concerns for some currencies were such that equity markets took a beating and policy responses from some of the world’s leading organisations were necessary.

“It’s like every major currency crisis that’s happened in the last 30 years all happened at once,” said Simon Derrick, of Bank of New York Mellon.

Worst hit were the emerging markets, where massive selling of equities left indices at multi-year lows.

The accompanying currency declines prompted action from the International Monetary Fund, which helped a number of countries including Hungary, Ukraine and Iceland. Hungary’s forint at its worst point last week was down 18 per cent against the euro on the month but rallied 5 per cent this week to Ft260.81 – down 8 per cent over the month.

Against the dollar it was more dramatic – down 19.7 per cent in spite of this week’s rally. “Aid packages from the IMF and other organisations should substantially reduce the risk of defaults and currency collapses,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, of Commerzbank.

It was a volatile month for the majors, too. The pound fell to a record low against the euro, which had its worst monthly decline against the dollar, while the yen’s rapid appreciation raised the prospect of intervention in the FX market by central banks.

Deleveraging gained pace throughout the month as margin calls on funds forced the selling of stocks, commodities and corporate bonds. This pushed the dollar higher as US investors repatriated their cash into the Treasury market while the yen found itself the target of funds looking for safety in its low yield and current account surplus.

The dollar also had help from the Federal Reserve, which drew praise from analysts for its proactive approach in trying to avert a severe recession.

Its half-point interest rate cut on Wednesday helped stabilise equity markets and increased speculation that the Bank of England and European Central Bank will follow suit next week.

Sterling fell 9 per cent against the dollar, its worst monthly fall since October 1992 – the month after the pound’s expulsion from the exchange rate mechanism. This week, the pound rose 1.8 per cent to $1.6212.

The euro, meanwhile, was down 9.6 per cent, its biggest monthly decline. It, too, rallied this week, standing at $1.2749 Friday, up 1.6 per cent on the week.

The euro hit a record high against sterling last week at £0.8195. But the pound finished this week, and the month of October, better off against the single currency. By late trade in London on Friday, the pound stood at $0.7861, up almost 2 per cent on the week and 0.6 per cent higher on the month.

Gains for Japan’s currency were even more spectacular in spite of its losses this week. The Bank of Japan on Friday acknowledged the work being done by other central banks as it lowered its own main rate by 20 basis points to 0.3 per cent.

During October, the yen climbed more than 16 per cent against the euro to Y125.01 and 16 per cent versus sterling to Y158.66. It also rose 7.5 per cent against the dollar to Y98.06.

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Weaker pound provides crumb of comfort for investors

Published: October 31 2008 19:37 | Last updated: October 31 2008 19:37

For UK equity investors looking for a glimmer of hope in the current turmoil, the weakening of the pound offers some solace.

Light relief is certainly in short supply, with some commentators convinced that the world is heading for its worst recession since the second world war.

This has been reflected in the performance of equity markets, with the FTSE 100 falling 10.7 per cent in October after a 13 per cent drop in September.

In dollar terms, the performance has been even worse, with the UK market falling 19.2 per cent in October. This is important since the FTSE 100 has historically been sensitive to movements in the pound against the dollar.

Sterling fell 9 per cent against the dollar last month. This was its worst performance since October 1992 when the pound was ejected from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

But this should be good news for large UK stocks.

Markets have been clamouring for an interest rate cut ... the pound’s poor performance has in effect already delivered one

This is because the UK has very significant revenues coming from the US, with healthcare companies, media companies and consumer goods companies all large dollar earners. Furthermore, mining and oil companies receive a high proportion of their earnings in dollars.

Indeed, 40 per cent of FTSE 100 revenues are priced in dollars.

It is not just earnings that benefit from a weaker pound, however.

There is also a significant boost to dividends, given that a number of the UK’s largest companies report in dollars.

These include the oil companies BP and Royal Dutch Shell, the miners Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, banking groups HSBC and Standard Chartered, as well as AstraZeneca and Shire, the pharmaceutical companies.

According to Morgan Stanley, companies that report in dollars accounted for 41 per cent of market capitalisation last year, 43 per cent of market net income and 39 per cent of market dividends.

Calculating an FX-related rule of thumb for earnings is tricky, given the lack of information about the denomination of companies’ cost bases and financing requirements.

However, for dividends it is much more straightforward: every 10 per cent fall in the value of the pound against the dollar adds nearly 4 per cent to UK dividend growth, all other things being equal.

The pound has not just been weak against the dollar. It also dropped to a record low against the euro last month and is down more than 7 per cent so far this year. This should provide UK exporters with a semblance of comfort, given that the eurozone is the country’s largest trading partner.

Sterling’s weakness is not, of course, a boon to all sectors. Retailers are looking particularly vulnerable as the price of imports rise.

JPMorgan estimates that adverse foreign exchange movements have pushed annual UK retail inflation up from 7.7 per cent in June to 10.5 per cent.

Retailers may try to pass on these increases to maintain margins. However there is every chance that, in a deflationary world, consumers will respond by trading down or buying less. This puts retailers such as Next in the firing line due to the comparatively high prices they charge.

However, on balance, sterling’s weakness should be a boon for UK stocks, albeit a limited one given the air of gloom surrounding global asset markets.

Of course, what UK markets have really been clamouring for is an interest rate cut. There is certainly room for the Bank of England to deliver at its meeting next week, given UK rates stand at a lofty 4.5 per cent compared to just 1 per cent in the US. A 50 basis point cut is already priced into the market. A more aggressive move could not only boost stocks but send the pound lower.

The pound’s poor performance has, in effect, already delivered one rate cut. A rough yardstick suggests that every 10 per cent fall in the pound against the dollar equates to 25 basis points in monetary easing due to the beneficial effect on exporters and the pressure it takes off domestic manufacturers at home. What markets need now is for the Bank of England to deliver the real thing.

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MasterCard to issue diamond-studded cards

By Jeremy Grant

Published: October 31 2008 23:33 | Last updated: October 31 2008 23:33

Markets are plunging, banks are collapsing and talk of recession is all about, but the global gloom is not stopping the launch of a MasterCard credit card inlaid with a diamond and laced with gold.

Known as the “Diamond”, the card has a 0.02-carat gem­embedded in its centre and a picture of a peacock for female cardholders and a winged horse for men.

The card, which has a $1,000 (£620) annual fee, is to be issued in two weeks’ time by MasterCard and Kazkommertsbank, the second largest bank in commodities-rich Kazakhstan, where the oil and minerals boom of recent years has created a fresh crop of billionaires.

Asked about the timing of the launch, the bank’s head of international payment systems, Alla Voyakina, said: “The [financial] crisis is also affecting us but we are talking about rich people, they can afford to have such cards. It’s a question of prestige to have such cards in your ­wallet.”

The diamond was “only a design element”, Ms Voyakina said. “It’s showing your status.”

MasterCard had done “all the testing” to make sure such a card would fit into automated teller machines and point of sale slots, she added.

The card comes as even the super-rich are feeling the pain of the credit crunch. Spending on items such as $1,000 mobile phones is expected to end a boom that more than doubled the size of the global luxury goods market in the past decade.

However, Ms Voyakina said the bank had a target audience of “the best of VIP customers” and only planned to issue 1,000 cards, at a rate of about 30 a month, starting on November 13.

Each would have a credit limit of $50,000, about $20,000 higher than the highest limit on some MasterCard platinum cards.

MasterCard, which launched a similar card in Dubai last year, said such cards were “leading examples of MasterCard’s ability to support our customers in meeting the lifestyle needs of these premium customers”.

The invitation-only “Royale” card issued by Dubai First, a consumer finance group owned by the emirate’s ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, offers a “lifestyle manager” and has no pre-set spending limits.

The Kazakh card comes with a personal card “manager”, available around the clock.

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Making religious capital out of Das Kapital

By Bertrand Benoit in Berlin

Published: October 31 2008 18:25 | Last updated: October 31 2008 18:25

As doubts about the self-regulating nature of the market mount, it is perhaps no surprise that Marx’s Das Kapital is on the bestseller list in Germany.

This is not, however, the book that springs to mind, and the Marx in question is not Karl, the 19th-century theoretician of collectivism, but Reinhard, bishop of Munich.

With a dose of humour – the book’s cover is dressed in ecclesiastic purple but modelled on the German edition of Karl’s tome – the marketing-savvy prelate has produced a modern restatement of the Christian social doctrine as an answer to the current turbulence.

Hitherto seen as a liberal and a supporter of unpopular economic reforms in Germany, Bishop Marx puts himself back in the political centre, emphasising freedom over coercion and criticising the excesses of unbridled capitalism. He endorses free markets but calls for a return to the cosy, socially responsible “Rhineland model” of capitalism that has been dismissed “as a social-romantic relic of the postwar years”.

The message is hardly groundbreaking. But with the publication’s impeccable timing and whimsical wrapping, the bishop has lived up to his reputation as the German Catholic Church’s most clever salesman. The 320-page book, which went on sale on Thursday, has struck a chord. Pattloch, the Christian publisher, only printed 15,000 copies, most of which have been sold.

Such success can in part be credited to the author’s personality. At ease with journalists and something of a public performer, the bearded, jocular cleric is a ubiquitous presence in the country’s media and his appeal reaches well beyond the ranks of regular churchgoers.

Yet at a time when not even churches are being spared by the financial storm – the Benedictine abbey of Münsterschwarzach and the protestant Church of Oldenburg were among the victims of the Lehman Brothers collapse – many Germans, believers or not, are reassessing their allegiance to the country’s social market economy, with its mixture of free-market and generous welfare state.

They are not yet turning their backs on the liberal dogma of mainstream economic policy thinking. All the parties in parliament save the radical Left, had a hand in the retreat of the state through privatisations and deregulation in the past 20 years and, combined, still enjoy 85 per cent support.

Yet the near-collapse of the world’s financial system, the looming threat of recession and a swelling tide of anti-business sentiment have created a growing appetite for critically revisiting the tenets that underpin Germany’s economic order.

Bishop Marx is not alone in having sensed the need for a debate about principles rather than policies. Politicians have also been rising above the mundane level of day-to-day business.

After prophesying the end of the US as a “financial superpower”, Peer Steinbrück, the Social Democratic finance minister, reflected that “certain parts of [Karl] Marx’s thinking are really not so bad”. While sales of Marx’s 1848 opus are on the increase, this month saw the return to the public arena of Friedrich Merz, the free-market conscience of the Christian Democratic Union of Angela Merkel, the chancellor, who took a step back from politics last year in protest at his party’s increasingly centrist course.

Mr Merz has produced a robust defence of liberalism provocatively titled Let us dare more capitalism. By last week, it had climbed Amazon’s bestseller list to within striking distance of Wetland, Charlotte Roche’s pornographic novel.

Meanwhile, the political talk shows that seem to make up most of the prime-time offering on public sector television have also been teeming with serious arguments about fundamentals.

This week, Maybrit Illner, host of the eponymous ZDF show, dropped her round-table format for a heated one-on-one debate between Mr Merz and Oskar Lafontaine, the Left party’s formidable chairman. She entitled the discussion “Capitalism vs Socialism”.

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The Long View: The markets’ no-lose election

By John Authers

Published: October 31 2008 19:10 | Last updated: October 31 2008 19:10

This year has seen two epic and intersecting narratives. All year, the slow-motion crash of the world’s capital markets has played out alongside the spellbinding, and rancorous, battle for the presidency of the US.

That these two narratives are closely entangled is revealed by comparing a chart of the S&P 500 index with charts from political prediction markets. For months now they have been closely aligned.

Judging by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Market, John McCain’s chances hit bottom and he began a two-month recovery on July 15 – the day that the S&P also hit a bottom and began a rally for the summer.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September came as Mr McCain’s chances had reached a plateau. Then, as Americans beheld the worst financial crisis in two generations, the odds on Barack Obama took off. In the past two weeks, they have hit a plateau and then reduced slightly, as stocks have begun to improve somewhat. (Mr McCain still has a chance of between 15 and 17 per cent, so traders still see a real chance that he could win the election.)

The correlation is clear, but what is the causation? There are three possibilities. First, the bad economy simultaneously brought down stocks and the chances of the incumbent party. This is almost wholly convincing.

But second, Americans’ sense of wellbeing is sensitive to stock prices (because pensions are now largely kept in accounts whose movements can be tracked daily), and the fall in stocks made them much more inclined to try the candidate of “change”.

To paraphrase Ronald Reagan, they ask themselves if they are better off than they were four years ago, and their pension balances show that they are not.

Or third, the markets are selling off out of fear that Mr Obama will win. As the election approaches, he is being called a socialist.

As socialism calls for “the common ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange” it would obviously be very bad for the stock market.

But there is a problem with this theory. Mr Obama does not call himself a socialist, and he does not sound remotely like one. It is his opponents who make this claim.

They claim this because he supports progressive income tax (charging a higher marginal rate on those earning $250,000 or more). But this idea goes back to Adam Smith, the father of free market economics. It has been US policy for decades.

Moreover, socialism – the forced nationalisation of banks – is already with us. It was born of necessity, not of an election.

Further, other global stock markets have suffered worse than the US in the past two months, and funds have flowed to the dollar. This implies, if anything, that the US is benefiting from an “Obama premium”.

A more plausible take on the “Obama fear” theory is that markets dislike the prospect that Democrats will control both Congress (where Democrats tend to be stridently populist) and the presidency. The theory goes that markets prefer gridlock, as this gives them the moderate and pragmatic policies they like.

But research by the CFA Institute shows that stocks do better when one party runs both branches of government.

Trying to shut out the noise of the campaign, let us look at what markets want from politicians. In a crisis, they need clear leadership. This requires a president with political capital and economic policy officials the market trusts.

George W. Bush has no political capital; he is the lamest of lame ducks. This led to the disaster when Congress voted down the first version of the Tarp bank bail-out plan.

Many traders complain that his Treasury secretary, Hank Paulson, has made mistakes, notably in not rescuing Lehman Brothers.

Either candidate will at first have more political capital than Mr Bush – particularly Mr Obama.

And markets may take his choice of economic advisers as a clear signal that he is no socialist. Mr Obama has the endorsement of Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman who beat inflation in the 1980s, and repeatedly cites him as an adviser.

The names mentioned as possible Treasury secretary under Mr Obama are mostly “market-friendly” figures from the Clinton administration.

Further, this election happens just as the Federal Reserve has conceded that deflation is a greater danger than inflation. Politicians and markets now share an interest in inflating out of the recession.

And markets can see the constraints Democrats could face. The recession makes many populist proposals infeasible. And the extent of voters’ anger means that the Democrats will be under intense pressure to show evidence of economic improvement in the next two years. The fact that someone will have both political capital and political accountability is encouraging for markets.

Americans have been told loudly that their likely next president is a socialist. That may have a marginal negative effect on stocks.

But whoever wins on Tuesday, markets should have what they want – a leader with political capital. And, like everyone else, they will be glad it is over.

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Brazil signs new oil deal as Cuba hopes for economic revival

3 hours 32 mins ago
AFP

Brazil has inked a multi-million-dollar deal to explore for oil off the Cuban coast, joining India, Vietnam, Malaysia Spain, Norway and Venezuela in cash-strapped communist Cuba's quest for black gold.

The deal between Brazil's state oil giant Petrobras and Cubapetroleo, announced by President Raul Castro and visiting Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is the latest offshore front on which Havana is fighting to achieve energy independence, and reverse its dire economic straits.

"If there is a chance of finding oil in Cuba, don't be worried Raul, it can be at 500 meters depth, at 1,000, at 3,000 meters, at 7,000, we are going to look for it, find it and turn it into energy," Lula told his host.

Cuban authorities in October announced that the Caribbean nation's crude reserves were more than double what had been thought -- 21 billion barrels of crude.

If the development pans out, it could give rise to an amazing tropical Cinderella story.

Cuba, the Americas' only communist country, is an oil importer, and relies heavily both economically and politically on support from oil-rich leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a staunch ally of the Castros.

If it becomes energy independent, the communist regime can project itself into the future indefinitely, and would be jolted from being virtually unable to obtain credit to being flush with budget funds.

The country's centrally planned economy is frail on a good day, and its population of over 11 million desperately eager for economic progress after surviving economic dire straits since 1990. Cuba also has ridden out two major hurricanes in recent months, and seen a major share of its food crops wiped out.

Castro, 77, took over from his ailing brother Fidel Castro , 82, officially in February. The elder Castro was at Cuba's helm for five decades.

Raul Castro has promised progress but on the economic front it has not materialized.

Now, it would appear Havana is betting against unknown odds on the oil card's promise.

Lula and Castro said that under the deal between the two state firms, Petrobras will operate a 1,600 square kilometer bloc in Cuban waters in the Gulf of Mexico, at a depth of 500 to 1,600 meters, off the coast of the province of Matanzas east of Havana.

The Brazilian giant from 1998-2001 explored another bloc unsuccessfully; now Petrobras will start its investment with eight million dollars, and can explore within a seven-year period, while having 25 years to pump, should oil be found.

Raul Castro said he was fully confident that Brazil would find crude "because we already are extracting some, and because of the Brazilian company's capacity."

Petrobras is among the companies looking for oil in Cuban waters in the Gulf of Mexico, sprawling over 112,000 square kilometers divided up into 59 blocs in 1999.

Cubapetroleo exploration chief Rafael Tenrreyro has said the oil in question is part of the same subsea geological formation exploited by Mexico and the United States in the Gulf of Mexico. But he also cautioned that any big Cuban oil find would take three years to begin to be pumped.

But official Cuba is glowing with hope.

"Perhaps we will become, within a relatively short time, oil exporters," Fidel Castro wrote in an October 3 essay in the official newspaper Granma, in a country where official media tend not to fuel false hopes.

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Serbia not to seek IMF loan, only advice: PM

Yesterday, 06:13 pm
AFP

Serbia is negotiating a new two-year arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to monitor its economy but will not ask for a loan, Prime Minister Mirko Cvetkovic said Friday.

"Our idea is not to ask (the IMF) for additional money because at this very moment we are not considering that our (foreign) reserves are tiny like (in) other countries," Cvetkovic told AFP.

However, "the aim of this arrangement is a precaution, so if we realise that there will be some need of money it will allow us to do so," he said.

An IMF team headed by Alber Jaeger arrived to Serbia earlier this week as many east European countries came under pressure from the global financial crisis which has seen Hungary and Ukraine arrange special IMF loan packages.

The team was to hold talks with the government, central bank and other institutions during a 10-day mission.

"We have discussed with the IMF an agreement so that they can monitor our situation and help us in achieving the goals" of the 2009 budget, Cvetkovic said.

Reducing the budget deficit to below two percent of gross domestic product (GDP) was a crucial task, he noted.

In addition, the "IMF will help us to convince different interest groups like pensioners and unions not to ask" for payments to be increased, he said.

The prime minister, heading a pro-European government dominated by pro-western President Boris Tadic's Democrats, said his cabinet intended to "strengthen our fiscal policy and basically reduce spending generally, including government spending as well as private sector spending."

During a September visit to Belgrade, the IMF had urged Serbia to adopt ambitious economic reforms and a strict fiscal policy in order to cope with the crisis.

Cvetkovic said the crisis would not hit Serbia severely in the short-term but he expected some negative consequences in the longer-term, especially in terms of foreign investment.

Earlier this week, the Belgrade Stock Exchange hit an all-time low, having lost some 70 percent as the financial crisis compounded political and economic uncertainty in the former Yugoslav republic.

At the same time, the dinar has faltered, hitting Friday its lowest point this year of 84.99 against the euro despite central bank intervention.

Earlier on Friday the central bank hiked interest rates sharply to 17.75 percent from 15.75 percent, the Beta news agency reported.

Serbian interest rates were last raised in May by half a point to 15.75 percent as authorities targeted a 2008 inflation rate of 10 percent.

The Serbian statistics institute said Friday that inflation in the first six months of this year came in at 8.0 percent.

The prime minister said the economy would be under pressure next year "but I hope it will not be so damaging ... and that we might be able to get through the crisis with less development but ... (continuing) competitiveness."

Cvetkovic said that while there had been some withdrawals of savings from Serbia's banks, "we are not in so bad shape."

Last week the government increased the deposit guarantee from 3,000 to 50,000 euros among other measures to boost confidence in the banking system.

The measures brought results quickly, Cvetkovic said. "At this very moment there are no more withdrawals. I'm not so much worried about that."

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Strikes planned in Germany's key metalworking sector: union

Yesterday, 05:01 pm
AFP Deborah Cole

With a recession looming in Europe's biggest economy, Germany's largest industrial trade union IG Metall on Friday announced warning strikes this weekend in the key metalworking and electronics sector.

Union chief Berthold Huber slammed an offer by employers of a 2.9 percent wage hike and said preliminary work stoppages on behalf of the industry's 3.6 million workers would begin overnight Friday to Saturday.

IG Metall is seeking an eight percent pay increase -- the highest the union has demanded in 16 years. If no pay deal is reached, "the real wave of strikes" would start Monday, Huber told Friday's Bild newspaper.

"This offer by the employers is indecent because it would mean real wage losses for staff" due to inflation, he said.

"It is irresponsible because it would choke off economic growth. The conflict cannot be resolved this way -- I see no solution without work stoppages."

Late Thursday, after a month of bitter negotiations, employers tabled a sweetened offer of a 2.1 percent wage hike for 2009 and 0.8 percent more for the last two months of 2008 in the pilot region of Baden-Wuerttemberg.

IG Metall rejected the offer and said workers at an Audi and Siemens plants in Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg, among others, would down tools at midnight, when the current wage agreement for the sector runs out.

Further warning strikes at plants of corporate giants including Daimler could begin Monday, it said.

Germany pay negotiations begin simultaneously in several regions and the first to reach an accord generally serves as a guideline for the rest of the country and sets the tone for salary talks in other industries.

Analysts say the union knows it is unlikely to reach its target of eight percent, particularly with the shaky economic outlook, but it is unlikely that it will settle for less than five percent.

The head of the regional employers' group conducting the negotiations, Jan Stefan Roell, called the latest offer "a sign of fairness and responsibility in an extraordinary situation" for the economy.

Daimler, heavy truck and diesel engine maker MAN and auto parts maker Continental have all cut their profit forecasts recently and warned they would scale back production as the global financial crisis begins to bite.

Employers may also point to a dip in inflation, which fell to 2.4 percent this month from three percent in September due to the decline of oil prices, to take the wind out of IG Metall's sails.

The conflict in the metalworking sector comes amid recession fears after the government in mid-October slashed its growth forecast for next year to 0.2 percent from 1.2 percent previously.

Weaker global demand will depress activity in the export-oriented German economy, officials warn.

Meanwhile the national statistics office reported Friday that September retail sales plunged 2.3 percent from October, deepening the gloom.

Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, a Social Democrat, said Thursday he backed calls for higher pay, noting that the trends in wages and corporate wealth had drifted far apart in recent years.

"I consider wage increases in the current climate to be not only defensible but also justified," he said.

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Ecuador ends contract with Repsol YPF

Yesterday, 07:08 pm
AFP

Ecuador on Friday broke off its oil extraction contract with Spanish-Argentine company Repsol YPF after they failed to agree on a new oil deal, as the Socialist government seeks more control over the energy sector.

"Unfortunately, we could not reach an agreement with Repsol," Oil Minister Derlis Palacios told a news conference.

"They constantly changed their criteria and we were unable to negotiate," Palacios said.

Repsol YPF said in Madrid that it still hoped to reach an accord with Quito to continue operating in Ecuador's Amazon jungle.

"We don't consider the negotiations are broken," said a company spokesman.

The 60,000 barrels of oil a day extracted in Ecuador were a minute part of the company's total world production, which was more than one billion barrels a day in 2007.

Ecuador's Socialist President Rafael Correa, elected in 2006, wants foreign oil companies to transfer to new service contracts that guarantee the government a larger share of profits.

Correa has in the past threatened to end deals with foreign companies as a negotiation strategy to improve the terms for the state.

Chinese company Andes Petroleum has already agreed to modify its contract and Brazilian Petrobras, also threatened with losing its contract, has reached a preliminary accord.

Ecuador is the smallest member of OPEC, producing 508,000 barrels per day.

In the public works sector, the government on October 11 said it would expel Brazilian giant BTP Odebrecht and end all its contracts.

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Russo-Czech economic relations are rapidly growing-Zhukov

31.10.2008, 12.35

MOSCOW, October 31 (Itar-Tass) - Members of the Russo-Czech Intergovernmental Commission for Economic, Industrial, Scientific and Technical Cooperation have arrived at the conclusion that the economic relations between the two countries are rapidly growing, Head of its Russian Part of the Commission Vice-Premier Alexander Zhukov stated on Friday, summing up the results of the Commission’s work.

It was noted during the meeting of the Commission that the figures of 2007 foreign trade and the results of the eight first months of 2008 show that they are continuing to grow at a rapid pace,” he said, noting that “cooperation in the field of investments has become much more active and several large-scale joint projects are being implemented”.

Most attractive for Russian investors in the Czech Republic are metalworking, machine-building and chemical enterprises, as well as fuel and energy plants, tourist and health-building recreation establishments, Zhukov stated. The most promising areas for Czech investments in Russia are building construction projects, building materials plants, pharmaceutical and food factories, as well as establishment of Czech enterprises in the special economic zones that are now being created in Russia.

Zhukov specially noted the successful development of interregional cooperation, the success of the Czech national exhibition in the Republic of Bashkortostan, the presentation of Czech export goods and investment projects in Omsk Region and the Moscow Days in Prague.

At the same time, he acknowledged that the extensive factors of commercial and economic cooperation, based on increased deliveries of energy and raw materials, are practically exhausted”. Therefore, he added, “our cooperation has to shortly attain a qualitatively new level”, in which special role should be played by investment initiatives, production cooperation, innovation projects, exchanges of licences and know-how, joint transactions on the markets of third countries, etc. “I am sure that as a result of our work we shall be able to find new areas of cooperation,” Zhukov stated.

Chairman of the Czech Part of the Commission, Minister of Industry and Trade Martin Riman noted in turn: “I highly appreciate the fact that we have been meeting regularly every year in October and I am sure that our cooperation will be successfully continued in the future, too”. He also said that “trade turnover between the two countries has reached last year’ s level during the first seven months of the current year”.

“The dynamics of our cooperation have attained a high level,” he stressed, adding that he had already received expert reports on the joint results of the negotiations of the working groups, which have “drawn up a whole line of various decisions”.

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Russia limits meat import from Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, US

31.10.2008, 11.28

MOSCOW, October 31 (Itar-Tass) -- The Russian Federal veterinary and phyto-sanitary control service (Rosselkhoznadzor) has imposed a temporary ban on meat import to Russia from twelve companies of Belgium, Brazil. Denmark and the United States.

Dangerous listeriosis disease germs, intestinal infection germs, tetracycline antibiotics and anti-parasitic medicines dangerous for human health were detected in the meat products, a Rosselkhoznadzor source told Itar-Tass on Friday.

The ban is imposed beginning October 28. Veterinary services in the countries were informed immediately after it was imposed to conduct an investigation into the infection causes. After they report to the Russian service about the results and measures to prevent infection of products, the service will consider lifting of the ban with their guarantees or after an examination by Rosselkhoznadzor specialists, said the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor press service, Alexei Alexeyenko.

The products already sent before October 28 will pass through strict laboratory control, and only after the thorough examination, it will be decided whether to allow the transportation into the country.

Federal service specialists will also conduct inspections in Russian regions to check whether there are products of the listed companies.

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Hundreds of people mysteriously disappear in Russia every day
30.10.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/history/106646-people_disappear-0

Several hundreds of people vanish in Russia every day. The number of those who disappeared without a trace during the recent several years has doubled and reached 120,000 people. Out-of-town visitors, entrepreneurs and lonely proprietors make the largest risk group at this point.

The sad statistics has been recently discussed with the participation of law-enforcement officers, lawyers and law-makers within the scope of a special conference in Moscow. Experts tried to analyze which measures could be taken to stop the unrestrained growth of mysterious disappearances, the Rossiiskaya Gazeta wrote.

The majority of the 120,000 people, who disappeared in Russia in 2007 alone, are men – nearly 59,000. About 38,000 of them are women, whereas teenage and underage children make 23,000 of the total number. Most of those people are found alive, although the process may take from several months to several years.

A precise legal definition of the term ‘missing’ can not be found in any normative document in Russia. The term usually indicates a human being, who unexpectedly disappeared under unclear circumstances and with no apparent reasons for it.

The only Moscow–based service, which collects the information about the found victims and dead bodies, is the Bureau of Registration of Accidents. The employees of the bureau say that people disappear most frequently during autumns and springs. Medics say that mental illnesses usually exacerbate during these two seasons.

Most harmless incidents occur when people decide to hide from their family conflicts or escape from their debts. A police officer told the story of a woman, who filed a report looking for her husband. The woman said that her husband simply left for work one day and never came back. The police found the man six months later: he moved to another region and was living with another woman. The man literally begged the police “not to find him.”

The statistics of the Internal Affairs Ministry says that most of the missing – 80 percent – are adults who depart from their homes in search of jobs. Many of them face hard reality and do not make any money at all. They eventually decide not to send home any news .

The ministry links the number of disappearances with migration and the unfavorable criminal situation in the country.

The number of missing people grows 12-15 percent every year. It is not just common workers who disappear without a trace. Police records say that not less than five high-ranking officials go missing every year along with about 200 military men and police officers.

About a fourth of those on the missing lists are people who make first steps on the way to homelessness. Such people may lose any connection with their relatives and friends. Others die under unclear circumstances or fall victims to unsolved crimes.

It is impossible to define the percentage of those who die as a result of their mysterious disappearances.

The police usually find up to 80 percent of missing adults and up to 90 percent of missing children. Children may often be kidnapped for panhandling or even sectarian activities. A sect with about 100 teenage members has recently been unmasked in the Siberian region of Russia. Nine of those teenagers were on wanted lists.

If a person goes missing in Russia, he or she will be sought after for 15 years, as the law stipulates. Afterwards, the person will be declared officially dead.

Up to 3,000 people disappear in Russia’s every large city (with a million-strong population and more) every year. However, a joint database of those people does not exist, whereas the information about the missing is spread between the police, hospitals and morgues.

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USA to resume nuclear tests to save its Cold War stockpile from decline
30.10.2008 Source: AP © URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/106648-usa_nuclear_tests-0

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates believes the United States needs to resume its nuclear tests. The US needs to take steps to transform an ageing and very expensive complex of nuclear weapons from the Cold War era to a smaller and less costly enterprise that could meet the nation’s security needs for the future.

He said the current nuclear stockpile has been re-engineered to extend its life span, but such extensions cannot continue indefinitely. Without a modernization program, Gates said, the long-term outlook for the arsenal is "bleak."

"No one has designed a new nuclear weapon in the United States since the 1980s, and no one has built a new one since the early 1990s," he said. "To be blunt," Gates said, "there is absolutely no way we can maintain a credible deterrent and reduce the number of weapons in our stockpile without resorting to testing our stockpile or pursuing a modernization program."

The US National Nuclear Security Administration has lost a quarter of its personnel since the middle of the 1990s. A half of US nuclear scientists are over 50 years of age, whereas young specialists have never been involved in the development of nuclear arms. In addition, the USA has not been holding nuclear tests since 1992.

"Currently, the United States is the only declared nuclear power that is neither modernizing its nuclear arsenal nor has the capability to produce a new nuclear warhead," Gates said. Britain and France have programs to support their potentials, whereas China and Russia harbor ambitious plans to develop new weapons, he added.

Robert Michael Gates (born September 25, 1943) is currently serving as the 22nd United States Secretary of Defense. He took office on December 18, 2006. Prior to this, Gates served for 26 years in the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Council, and under President George H. W. Bush as Director of Central Intelligence. Before he joined the CIA, he served with the United States Air Force (USAF). After leaving the CIA, Gates became president of Texas A&M University and was a member of several corporate boards. Gates also served as a member of the Iraq Study Group, the bipartisan commission co-chaired by James A. Baker III and Lee Hamilton, that has studied the Iraq War. He was also the first pick to serve as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security when it was created following the September 11, 2001 attacks, but he declined the appointment in order to remain President of Texas A&M University.

Gates accepted the nomination as Secretary of Defense position on November 8, 2006, replacing Donald Rumsfeld. He was confirmed with bipartisan support. In a 2007 profile written by former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, Time named Gates one of the year's most influential people

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Iran to buy 50 An-148 airliners from Ukraine
20:29 | 31/ 10/ 2008

KIEV, October 31 (RIA Novosti) - Iran will buy 50 An-148 medium-haul airliners from Ukraine, Kiev's Unian news agency reported on Friday.

Iran's HESA company and four Ukrainian companies - the aircraft maker Antonov, the Kiev-based Aviant aircraft plant, the Motor Sich engine making plant, and the Kharkov production association - signed a letter of intent on Friday.

The two countries have yet to sign an intergovernmental agreement before the deal can move ahead.

In its basic modification, the An-148 is designed to carry 70-90 passengers up to 5,000 kilometers. It costs an estimated $20 million to build, less than Sukhoi's Superjet 100 (around $28 million).

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China, Russia renounce the dollar?
20:32 | 30/ 10/ 2008

MOSCOW. (Anatoly Gorev for RIA Novosti) - The recent meeting between Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao, created a financial sensation. Wen said that the two nations could withstand the global financial crisis if they joined forces; Putin urged him to go farther and stop using U.S. dollars in Russian-Chinese settlements.

This idea is nothing new. Russia and China reached a "framework" agreement in November 2007, which was followed by China's similar agreement with Belarus.

Earlier this year, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez turned against the dollar as well when they asked their OPEC partners to stop using the dollar for oil settlements. They argued that the "green" currency was no longer reliable and it was high time they look for a more stable and predictable alternative.

Curiously, unlike the Ahmadinejad and Chavez appeal, Putin's proposal came as the dollar was on the rebound and even began pushing the euro. Economists even started talking in terms of a reversal of the global currency trends, rather than the temporary appreciation of the dollar.

Analysts predict that the dollar will regain its value in the next few months. They do not see anything which could hinder its steady growth.

Yet, Putin proposed that Russia and China stop using it as a settlement instrument. What is it - lack of confidence in the dollar's prospects or a political move?

Experts differ on this count. Igor Nikolayev, chief strategic analyst at FBK private auditing firm, sounded skeptical: "I think it was a political statement rather than an economic decision. There is a dominant public sentiment that the United States is the source of all evil, so let's stop using the dollar," he explained.

One has to bear in mind, though, that some other currency will need to be found to replace the dollar for international settlements. China is unlikely to use the ruble, and Russia would be equally reluctant to accept the yuan.

"They could opt for the euro, but its future is uncertain, especially considering current developments on global financial markets. It is also unclear whether China would be happy to start using the euro while most of its international reserves are held in dollars," he added.

There are more questions than answers here, Nikolayev concluded.

To be objective, one has to admit that other analysts are not as skeptical about the possibility of using other currency units between Russian and Chinese companies.

Andrei Marinchenko, director general of the Kalita-Finance company, said the idea was quite realistic. Moreover, he thinks that the ruble stands a good chance of being selected as a reserve currency, primarily because the Chinese are disappointed in the dollar but aren't yet accustomed to the euro.

Only time will show who is right. But to stop using the dollar in Russian-Chinese settlements is too important a decision to make for purely political reasons - that much is obvious.

Suppose we do it; what will be the implications for Russian businesses, how will the new financial and political reality affect their incomes and savings?

Marinchenko is convinced of a beneficial impact. According to Marinchenko, once the ruble is recognized as a settlement unit, it will enjoy growing demand with Chinese companies and individuals. The Russian currency will consequently grow stronger and more influential globally.

Russia will also become immune to many shocks from stock market meltdowns and won't have to fear future devaluation or revaluation of the ruble. It will happen because the role of the U.S. dollar, which has earned a reputation as an unstable and unreliable currency lately, will be much less important.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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Russia-China: oil for loans
14:52 | 30/ 10/ 2008

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti economic commentator Oleg Mityayev) - On October 28, when China's Premier Wen Jiabao was visiting Moscow, he signed an agreement calling for the construction of an oil pipeline to China as part of the prospective Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline.

The agreement is expected to be followed by a contract for oil supplies to China for many years to come, against which Russian oil companies will be loaned between $20 billion to $25 billion. The loan will assist in repaying other previous loans to Western banks and in securing investments for new projects.

The ESPO system will transport Russian oil from Eastern Siberia to the Asia-Pacific region. The first stage, with an annual capacity of 30 million metric tons, is expected to be completed by the end of 2009. This section runs from Taishet in the Irkutsk Region to Skovorodino in the Amur Region, only 70 kilometers from China. The project provides for a divergence of the line, with one section to China and the other to the Pacific coast at the Kozmino oil terminal.

A decision on the branch to China was up in the air until the last minute. On October 25, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, who oversees fuel and energy, said state-controlled Transneft had already designed the branch. The agreement was signed by Transneft and by China's state-owned oil company CNPC.

In addition, on October 28, Russia and China signed a memorandum of understanding on oil cooperation. Press leaks say this agreement provides 15 million metric tons of Russian oil to China annually (for up to 20 years). At the same time, negotiators are discussing a loan (to be used as a prepayment for oil supplies) of $20 billion to $25 billion, which China will issue to Russian oil companies. Rosneft, which will deliver the oil to China, plans to receive $12 billion to $15 billion, while Transneft, which will build the line, will get $8 billion to $10 billion.

China issued a similar loan to Rosneft before. In 2004, the Russian company agreed to supply 48.4 million metric tons of oil (9.7 million metric tons a year), currently being shipped to China by rail, for five years. The CNPC paid Rosneft $6 billion in advance. This contract expires in 2010, and China needs to extend it, but also needs to contract more oil from Russia.

For the Russian companies, a new contract will be very timely amid a global financial crisis. Rosneft alone requires at least $800 million to repay its loan to the Western banks (plus another $13.4 billion to be paid before the summer of 2009). Transneft, on the other hand, will be able to secure funds for new projects, including the construction of the second leg of the ESPO (toward the Pacific coast), with an estimated cost of $11 billion.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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政府、ベトナムの宇宙開発を支援　円借款、09年度にも検討

　政府はベトナムの宇宙開発事業を支援する方針を固めた。今年度末までに官民による事前調査を実施。同国から要請があれば、2009年度にも数百億円規模の円借款の供与を検討する。日本が宇宙開発事業で他国を本格的に支援するのは初めて。日本の宇宙産業の海外市場開拓を支援する。

　調査には宇宙航空研究開発機構（ＪＡＸＡ）のほかＮＥＣや三菱商事などが参加する。画像処理や機材調達など協力分野の選定が目的。ベトナムが建設を計画する「ホアラック宇宙センター」（仮称）などインフラ整備への支援も想定している。ＪＡＸＡは、宇宙事業を進めるベトナム科学技術院（ＶＡＳＴ）との包括協力も模索している。(16:00)

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生損保７社、評価損1000億円超に　三井住友海上は450億円

　世界的な金融危機などを背景とした市場の混乱を受け、生損保大手の有価証券評価損が膨らんでいる。三井住友海上グループホールディングスなど上場生損保 7社が31日までに公表した2008年4―9月期の評価損の合計額は1147億円に達した。Ｔ＆Ｄホールディングスは同日、評価損計上などで4―9月期の業績見通しを下方修正した。

　31日までに評価損を公表したのは三井住友海上、Ｔ＆Ｄ、あいおい損害保険、日本興亜損害保険、富士火災海上保険、ニッセイ同和損害保険、ソニーフィナンシャルホールディングスの7社。最も大きかったのは三井住友海上で、破綻した米リーマン・ブラザーズ関連の125億円など合計で450億円。(09: 42)

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６大銀、損失１兆円　９月中間、純利益は６割減に

　米国発の金融危機が大手邦銀の業績に深刻な影響を及ぼし始めた。三菱ＵＦＪフィナンシャル・グループなど6大銀行グループは今年9月中間期に株式の減損処理で総額2800億円、不良債権処理で前年同期の2倍近くとなる7200億円と、株安と景気減速を主な要因とする損失を1兆円計上する。不良債権は増勢が見込まれ、株価の低迷は収益や財務に打撃となる。銀行経営に再び「有事モード」が高まってきた。

　三菱ＵＦＪとりそなホールディングスは31日、9月中間期の連結純利益がそれぞれ前年同期比61％減の1000億円、29％減の850億円になったと発表した。みずほフィナンシャルグループの9月中間期は7割減の940億円になった。三井住友、住友信託、中央三井トラストも10月に入って業績下方修正を発表済みだ。

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英投資ファンドＴＣＩ、Ｊパワー株売却へ

　英投資ファンドのザ・チルドレンズ・インベストメント・ファンド（ＴＣＩ）が、保有する9.9％分のＪパワー（電源開発）株全株をＪパワーに売却することで会社側と合意した。増配などによる資本効率の改善を迫ってきたが、株式持ち合いで「守り」を固めたＪパワーに今後要求をのませるのは難しいと判断した。外資規制や持ち合いの是非を巡って世論を2分したＪパワー問題はこれで完全に終結する。

　ＴＣＩがＪパワー株の売却を決めたのは、Ｊパワーが7月末に発表した子会社事業を本体に取り込む事業再編が直接のきっかけだった。

　Ｊパワーはこの事業再編を、株主総会での決議を経ない簡便な方法で実施。再編に反対する株主は、会社法に従って会社側に保有株の買い取りを請求できる。ＴＣＩは8月13日に事業再編への反対を表明。請求期限ぎりぎりの9月29日に買い取りを要請した。(07:00)

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シアン化物混入問題　伊藤ハム、４日に調査委初会合

　伊藤ハムは1日、有害なシアン化物が混入した地下水を加工食品に使った問題で、外部有識者による調査対策委員会（委員長・藤巻正生東京大学名誉教授）の初会合を4日に開くと発表した。地下水の検査報告が社内で約1カ月遅れたコンプライアンス（法令順守）上の問題点や混入原因について究明する。

　問題を起こした東京工場（千葉県柏市）は1日に全面休止した。時期は未定だが、調査委が再発防止策や安全性を確かめた報告書をまとめられれば、工場再開に一定のめどがつきそうだ。

　調査委は藤巻氏のほか、食品衛生の専門家、弁護士ら計6人で構成、週1回をめどに会合を開くほか、東京工場を視察する予定。河西力社長も会合に加わる。(22:48)

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パナソニック、三洋買収で株過半数取得目指す

　三洋電機を買収する方針を固めたパナソニック（旧松下電器産業）は来週にも、三井住友銀行など三洋の主要株主3社と交渉に入る。株式の過半を取得する方針で、取得数や価格などを協議する。三洋の主力事業の充電池や太陽電池を取り込み、ＡＶ（音響・映像）機器などに並ぶ収益の柱に据える考え。合意すれば、年間売上高が11兆円を超える国内最大の電機メーカーが誕生する。

　電機業界では厳しい価格競争を背景に再編が加速している。今年10月には中堅の日本ビクターとケンウッドが経営統合。京セラが三洋電機の携帯電話事業を買収するなど事業単位の再編も進んできた。今回の買収が実現すれば、大手同士で初のＭ＆Ａ（合併・買収）となり、新たな再編の引き金になるのは必至だ。

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定額給付金、所得制限が浮上　与謝野氏「上限は1000万円前後」

　政府の追加経済対策の目玉となる定額給付金を巡って、支給対象に所得制限を設ける案が政府・与党内で浮上している。高額所得者を対象外とする代わりに高齢者や子育て世帯への支援を厚くし、バラマキ批判をかわすのが狙いだ。ただ麻生太郎首相が10月30日の記者会見で「全世帯」への支給を表明したばかり。急な方針変更は野党の攻撃材料になる可能性もある。

　与謝野馨経済財政担当相は1日のテレビ東京番組で「高い所得階層の人にお金を渡すのは変だ」としたうえで、支給対象となる年収の上限は1000万円前後が望ましいとの考えを示した。

　公明党の山口那津男政調会長も同日のＴＢＳ番組で「あまりに高額な所得の方に支給する必要があるのかという議論もある」と所得制限が検討課題の1つだとの認識を示した。(21:27)

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震度表、気象庁が修正　木造建物に新指標も視野

　気象庁は31日、地震の震度ごとに想定される被害を示した「震度階級関連解説表」の内容を見直すと発表した。学識者らによる検討会を12月に立ち上げ、年度内に解説表の表記を修正する。検討会では人間を基準にした現在の震度とは別に、木造建築物の被害想定に限定した新たな指標の設定も視野に入れ、必要があれば来年度以降も審議を続ける。

　現在の解説表は阪神大震災を機に、体感で決めていた震度を震度計による観測に切り替えた1996年から使っている。7月の岩手北部地震などでは想定被害と実態にズレが生じるなど、見直しを求める声が出ていた。表記見直しは初めて。(07:00)

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「おふくろさん」騒動再燃？　川内サイド「歌わせない」

一部スポーツ紙が和解、解禁報道も…

　歌手、森進一（６０）が作詞家の故・川内康範さんに歌うのを禁止されていた代表曲「おふくろさん」をめぐり、新たな動きが出てきた。一部スポーツ紙で、森、川内さんの両サイドが和解し、歌唱が解禁されると報道されたのだ。しかし、川内さんに親しい関係者は「川内先生の遺志のとおり森には歌わせない」としており、あの騒動が年末に向けて再燃しそうだ。

　「おふくろさん」解禁を報じたのは、１日付のスポーツ報知。これによると、森は今年４月に川内さんが死去した後も、川内さんの所属事務所に「おふくろさん」を再び歌いたいとの希望を熱心に伝え続けてきたといい、川内さんサイドと和解が成立。日本作詩家協会にもあいさつを済ませ、大みそかのＮＨＫ紅白歌合戦での解禁が確実だという。

　ところが、川内さんと親しい関係者はこれを全面否定。「森が事務所の人間と接触したという話も、和解したという話もない。先生の遺志どおり、森には歌わせない」と呆れた様子。川内さんの生前、両者の和解に向けて尽力していた音楽関係者も「全く聞いていない」と驚いている。

　また、森が所属するレコード会社、ビクターの担当者も「話は進めているが、和解したという話は聞いていない。どこからそんな話が出たのでしょう」と話した。

　この騒動は、一昨年の紅白で、森が川内さんに無断で、セリフ付きの歌詞で歌ったのがきっかけで勃発。川内さんは「森におれの歌は歌わせない」と歌唱禁止を宣言。これに対し、森は「おふくろさんは僕の歌」と会見で話し、川内さんをますます怒らせた。

　森は、川内さんが滞在する都内のホテルや、青森県八戸市の自宅に謝罪に出向き、関係者を通じて面会を求めたが、いずれも門前払いに。和解できないまま、川内さんは今年４月に慢性呼吸不全で死去。川内さんは関係者に「おれが死んでも、森には歌わせるな」と厳命していたという。

　その後、名曲だけに後世に歌い継いでほしいとの声もあり、最近になって音楽関係者や大物政治家までもが、和解の仲介に動いているとのうわさが飛び交っていた。

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航空幕僚長：複数の現職自衛官も応募　「更迭」の懸賞論文

　航空自衛隊の田母神（たもがみ）俊雄・前航空幕僚長が、民間企業主催の懸賞論文に応募して「我が国が侵略国家というのは濡（ぬ）れ衣（ぎぬ）」などと執筆し更迭された問題で、他に複数の現職自衛官が同じ懸賞論文に応募していたことが分かった。入賞者は田母神氏以外はなく、論文は公表されていないが、防衛省では、上司への連絡を怠るなど内規違反がないか、事実関係の調査を検討している。

　田母神氏が応募したのは、ホテルチェーンなどを展開する総合都市開発「アパグループ」（東京都港区）が主催する「真の近現代史観」懸賞論文。今年５月からの募集に対して約２３０件の応募があり、田母神氏の「日本は侵略国家であったのか」と題した論文が最優秀賞を受賞した。この論文を含めて入賞した１３件の受賞作品集出版も予定されている。１３件には他に現職自衛官の論文はないが、入賞しなかった中に現職自衛官の論文があったという。

　防衛省では内部の規則で、隊員が職務に関する意見をメディアなどで発表する際、文書で上司に届けることを求めている。空幕長の場合、官房長に連絡する必要があるが、他の隊員の場合は上司に連絡する必要がある。このため防衛省では、内規違反がないかについての調査などを検討している。【本多健】

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新型ウイルス：ザンビアから帰国の４人死亡　南ア

　【ヨハネスブルク高尾具成】南アフリカ保健省は１０月３０日、９月にザンビアから南アに帰国した女性ら４人が原因不明のウイルス性出血熱で死亡し、病原体が新型のアレナウイルスであると特定したと発表した。

　女性は９月１２日に、ザンビアから航空機でヨハネスブルクの病院に緊急搬送され、２日後に死亡した。その後、女性に同行した医師や担当の看護師、接触のあった清掃員が相次いで発症し、１０月６日までに死亡した。

　南ア・国立感染症研究所（ＮＩＣＤ）の特別病原体班が、米アトランタの疾病対策センター（ＣＤＣ）特殊病原体感染症部門に検体を送り、協力して解明が進められていた。１０月、ザンビア政府も世界保健機関（ＷＨＯ）と協力し、調査を開始していた。

　病院によると、ほかにも約１００人に感染の可能性があったため、追跡調査を実施。その結果、病状が悪化していた患者も抗ウイルス薬治療などで安定した状態となり、全員、危険な状態は脱したという。

　アレナウイルスはネズミなどのげっ歯類が宿主となり、アフリカや南米で人間に対してウイルス性出血熱を引き起こしている。発熱や頭痛などの症状で始まり、肺不全や出血症状を合併して死に至ることもある。

　▽山本太郎長崎大教授（国際保健学）の話　人間に対して病原性を持つ新型のウイルスの出現には注意深い対応が必要だ。現時点の情報では、今後、感染が拡大するかどうかは分からない。ウイルスは環境破壊などで生態系が乱れると、自身が生き残りを図ろうとして、本来の宿主から人間に感染するケースが出てくる。

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日本主催のエネルギー・フォーラム延期　金融危機の影響

2008年10月30日17時13分

　経済産業省は３０日、７月の北海道洞爺湖サミットで日本主催が決まった国際会議「エネルギー・フォーラム」を当面延期すると発表した。１１月開催で調整していたが、金融危機の影響で各国の閣僚級の参加が難しくなったという。主要８カ国（Ｇ８）と中国、インド、韓国が参加し、省エネや技術革新を協議することになっていた。

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【メラミン混入】「２年で解決できる」中国首相
2008.11.1 14:17

　１日付の香港英字紙サウスチャイナ・モーニング・ポストによると、中国の温家宝首相はカザフスタンを訪問中に応じたテレビ局とのインタビューで、有害物質メラミン混入など中国の「食の安全」問題について「１、２年以内に解決できないとは信じない。もっと早くできるかもしれない」と述べ、２年以内に解決するとの決意を示した。

　同紙は９月に粉ミルクへのメラミン混入問題が発覚して以降、政府が示した最も明確な決意表明だとしている。

　また温首相はメラミン汚染が飼料を通じて卵などにも広がっていることを踏まえ「われわれはメラミンが食品だけでなく、動物の飼料に加えられることも許さない」と語った。（共同）

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伊藤ハム、トルエン検出ウインナー　原因は袋の過剰残留接着剤
2008.10.31 23:50

　伊藤ハム東京工場（千葉県柏市）で製造、ユーコープ事業連合（本部・横浜市）が販売したウインナーから異臭がするとの苦情が相次ぎ、一部からトルエン成分が検出された問題で、伊藤ハムは３１日、ウインナーの袋に接着剤のトルエン成分が過剰に残留したことが原因と発表した。

　伊藤ハムによると、袋の材料のフィルムを製造した大日本印刷（東京）から「フィルム製造機器に不具合があり、一部のフィルムから過剰のトルエンを検出した」と連絡があったという。

　２枚の薄いポリエチレンを重ねて袋のフィルムを作る際、トルエンを含む接着剤を使用。製造過程でドライヤーを使い、接着剤を乾燥させることでトルエン成分を消すが、フィルムを重ねる機械に不具合があり、過剰なトルエン成分が残ったという。

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ヤマサ製などからトルエン　中国で、しょうゆやわさび
2008.10.31 23:43

　北京の日本大使館は３１日、日本から中国に輸入されたヤマサ醤油とキッコーマンのしょうゆ、万城食品のわさびペーストからトルエンと酢酸エチルが検出されたとの連絡を中国国家品質監督検査検疫総局から受けたと発表した。

　ヤマサは「健康に問題ない水準だが、緊急に調査を開始した」、キッコーマンは「トルエンなどは通常、しょうゆに含まれ、微量であるため、健康に影響を及ぼすものではないと考える」としている。

　しょうゆでは、ヤマサ製からトルエンが１キロ当たり０・００５３ミリグラム、酢酸エチルが０・４１７ミリグラム、キッコーマン製からトルエンが０・０００６４ミリグラム、酢酸エチルが０・５３７ミリグラムが検出された。わさびでは、トルエンが０・０００９ミリグラム、酢酸エチルが０・０７９６ミリグラムだった。これらの製品は輸入した企業がいずれも廃棄処分にした。（共同）