King hints at need for ‘aggressive’ cuts

King hints at need for ‘aggressive’ cuts

By Alex Barker, Political Correspondent

Published: November 26 2008 03:26 | Last updated: November 26 2008 03:26

Interest rate cuts may need to be more “aggressive” than normal in order to counteract dysfunctional credit markets and the unwillingness of lenders to pass on changes, senior Bank of England officials said on Tuesday.

Appearing before the Treasury select committee, governor Mervyn King said he would do whatever was necessary to “steer the economy back into calmer waters” as the inflationary outlook “shifted down significantly”.

“We may need to cut the Bank rate more than we would otherwise have done,” he said. Since October, the Bank has brought rates down by 2 percentage points to 3 per cent, bringing the official rate to its lowest level in 53 years.

The hints at further cuts were echoed by Charlie Bean, deputy governor, who said signals on interest rates may need to be stronger than in “more normal circumstances”.

“The bank credit channel in particular is impaired by the balance sheet contraction taking place in financial institutions,” Mr Bean said. “In such circumstances, Bank rates may need to be moved more aggressively to achieve the same impact.”

In a welcome boost for Alistair Darling, Mr King offered broad support for the government’s £20bn ($30bn) fiscal stimulus package, saying it was a “reasonable and appropriate” way to mitigate the downturn.

But while he was reassured the measures were temporary, he warned that the chancellor had set “a long, hard path back to fiscal stability”.

“The implied ratio of debt to national income only starts falling in 2015-16, which is a very long way away,” the governor said. “This is an indication of how serious the fiscal position is at present.”

Media in dock

The parliamentary probe into the banking crisis will consider whether journalists should be gagged during an emergency to preserve financial stability, writes James Mackintosh.

The inquiry by the Treasury select committee will consider “the role of the media in financial stability and whether financial journalists should operate under any form of reporting restrictions during banking crises”.

The inclusion of the media comes after calls by Michael Howard, former Tory leader, for the Financial Services Authority to investigate the source of BBC reporter Robert Peston’s story that banks had asked for government cash.

John McFall, Labour chairman of the committee, said the media were just one part of the debate.

Responding to a series of questions on the stimulus measures, both Mr King and Mr Bean backed the choice of a VAT cut, arguing that a reduction in income taxes would have given less of an incentive to spend. But Mr King noted that it was still unclear when the full economic impact of the VAT cuts would be felt, as the incentive to shop would be greater when the temporary measure was about to lapse.

The cut in VAT would add to deflationary pressures that could push the UK into negative inflation next year, at least on the retail price index. But Mr King expected Britain to avoid a negative spiral of deflation and reiterated the Bank forecast that the consumer price index would remain in positive territory. “The other definition of deflation – the one economists worry about – is a period of continuing self-reinforcing falls in prices which then make it very difficult for real interest rates to fall to sufficiently low levels to get out of a downturn in spending,” he said.

“I do not think we feel that is the position we are in or likely to be in because the likely duration of the period in which the measured inflation rate is negative is likely to be pretty short, indeed the VAT cut itself will be reversed.”

Nevertheless, Mr King was willing to discuss the eventuality of interest rates falling to zero. “At that point there needs to be close co-ordination between the government and the central bank because monetary policy is very close to debt management,” he said.

Throughout the session, Mr King stressed that the “single most pressing challenge” was breaking the logjam in lending – an essential step to tackling both the deflationary pressures and avoiding a “steep recession”.

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VAT rise to 18.5% scrapped at last minute

By Vanessa Houlder and George Parker

Published: November 25 2008 21:29 | Last updated: November 25 2008 21:29

The government considered raising value added tax to a record 18.5 per cent, it emerged last night, prompting the Conservatives to claim they had unearthed a “secret Labour tax bombshell”.

The inadvertent publication of an early version of the pre-Budget report documents revealed Alistair Darling, the chancellor, only decided at the last minute to abandon plans for the VAT hike in 2011-12.

The disclosure is politically damaging to Mr Darling, since it allows the Tories to suggest that Labour is planning additional tax rises if it wins the next election as borrowing rises to £118bn.

The Treasury insisted last night the VAT rise, which would have raised £5bn a year, was ditched by Mr Darling in favour of a 0.5 per cent rise in national insurance contributions and a new 45p income tax rate on high earners.

An official said those two measures combined raised about £5bn a year and there was no hole in the government’s forecasts for future revenue.

But George Osborne, shadow chancellor, said: “At the last minute Gordon Brown clearly decided to keep secret his plan to hit everyone with an extra tax rise to pay for his borrowing binge.”

After Mr Darling delivered his statement on Monday, the Tories identified what they claimed was an unexplained £100bn rise in tax receipts over the next parliament, starting in 2011-12.

Mr Osborne claims the original plan to raise £5bn a year from raising VAT to 18.5 per cent accounted for part of that “black hole”.

Vincent Cable, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, said: “The government has been at best incompetent and at worst highly duplicitous.”

In his PBR statement, Mr Darling announced plans for a cut of VAT from 17.5 per cent to 15 per cent on December 1. The rate would revert to 17.5 per cent in January 2010.

But a Treasury study on the website of the Office of Public Sector Information, part of the National Archives, said: “The standard rate will then return to 17.5 per cent from 1 January 2010, and subsequently increase to 18.5 per cent in 2011-12.”

The reference to the 18.5 per cent rate had been erased by the time the Budget documentation was printed at the weekend.

As Britain has the fourth lowest rate of value added tax in the EU, pushing up VAT to 18.5 per cent may have seemed attractive because it would have still left it well below the EU average of 19.5 per cent. Bill Dodwell of Deloitte said that whether or not it would make sense to push up VAT in 2011 would depend on the fragility of the economy.

The Treasury often makes its final decisions on Budget changes at a very late stage. The VAT increase would have raised more than £5bn in 2011-12, a similar sum to that raised by the increase in national insurance contributions, suggesting that the two options may have been considered as alternatives.

The Treasury said: “In all Budgets, ministers consider a range of policy options, most of which are rejected. As the chancellor said in his PBR statement to parliament, “we considered a number of options to raise revenue in future years, and I have chosen those which are fairest”.

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事故米を食用転用　「三笠フーズ」が破産申し立て

2008年11月25日21時19分

　農薬などに汚染された工業用の事故米を食用に転用したとされる事件で、大阪府警などの捜査を受けた米販売会社「三笠フーズ」（大阪市）は２５日、関連会社の米卸売会社「辰之巳」とともに経営の再建は困難と判断し、大阪地裁に２１日付で破産手続きの開始を申し立てたことを明らかにした。また、借入金の保証債務を負っている両社の冬木三男社長も自己破産を申し立てたという。負債総額は三笠フーズが約９億円、辰之巳が約６億５千万円。

　両社によれば、今年９月以降、事故米を食用と偽って転用するなどの不正が相次いで発覚。焼酎メーカーなどの取引先から損害賠償や違約金の請求を受けるなどし、資金繰りが急速に悪化したため、事業の継続は難しいと判断したという。冬木社長は文書で「国民の皆様及び食品業界に及ぼした不信感は極めて大きく、信用を回復できませんでした」とコメントした。

　三笠フーズは９月１０日、全従業員計１０６人を解雇し、一部社員らを辰之巳に再雇用して事故米の回収業務などに当たっていたが、作業終了のめどもたったという。

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Fed adds $800bn to boost borrowing

By Joanna Chung in Washington and Michael Mackenzie and Nicole Bullock in New York

Published: November 25 2008 14:30 | Last updated: November 26 2008 02:40

The US Federal Reserve on Tuesday escalated its efforts to revive the financial system, pledging $800bn to bolster markets for loans to homebuyers, consumers, students and small businesses.

The planned intervention in consumer lending markets had a dramatic impact on interest rates for mortgage-backed securities, which fell to their lowest levels since January after having remained stubbornly high despite Fed interest rate cuts.

However, the announcement also underscored the severity of the credit crisis and raised concerns among some analysts that the Fed might be taking too much risk – and printing too much money – in response.

“I wish there was one action that we could take, and all this would end, and the financial system would turn around ... but that is not the world we live in today,” Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, said in discussing the measures. “We are dealing with a historic situation that happens once or twice in a 100 years.”

The Fed said it would buy up to $600bn of mortgage bonds issued or guaranteed by government-sponsored housing enterprises such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae and the Federal Home Loan Banks.

The Fed said it was launching another programme – the term asset-backed securities loan facility, or Talf – to lend up to $200bn to holders of AAA-rated securities backed by student loans, auto loans, credit card loans and small business loans.

Will the latest Fed plan unfreeze credit markets?

* Have your say

The Treasury will use $20bn from its $700bn troubled asset relief programme, or Tarp, to provide credit protection for the Talf. Mr Paulson said that the $200bn facility could expand to include commercial and non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities.

The yield on Fannie Mae’s 30-year mortgage bond fell as much as 60 basis points to 4.81 per cent, its lowest level since last January. Rates on 30-year conforming mortgages – meaning they can be bought by Fannie and Freddie – fell to 5.77 per cent from 6.06 per cent on Monday, according to HSH Associates.

However, some analysts expressed concerns about the new programmes’ impact.

“Instead of having the Treasury borrow the cash to fund these programmes through the Tarp, we’re just going to crank up the magical printing presses and expand the Fed’s balance sheet,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital. “For those not connecting the dots, the Treasury has essentially just outsourced the purchase of troubled assets to the Fed, with lots of leverage.”

The Fed moves came as the European Union prepared on Wednesday to unveil its own fiscal stimulus plan.

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Moscow faces state regulation calls

By Charles Clover in Moscow

Published: November 25 2008 18:26 | Last updated: November 25 2008 18:26

During the 1980s, Mikhail Gorbachev had a stock answer to the frequently asked question: would perestroika – Russia’s liberal economic reforms – ever be rolled back? “I am certain that perestroika is irreversible” the then Soviet leader, would say. “But everything can change.”

Russia’s leaders today display a similar attitude towards their economy in the face of the worst crisis it has faced in 10 years. Something resembling liberal economics still rules Russia, even if liberal politics vanished long ago.

And the government is still loathe to increase regulation of the economy in response to the crisis in the financial markets and banking system which has started to seep into the real sector, increasing unemployment and wage arrears.

Two months ago President Dmitry Medvedev told leading business people that Russia’s commitment to market economics was unbendable: “Nothing in the principles of economic policy will be changed,” he said. “There should not be a change in priorities. We do not need militarisation of the economy or a statist economy.”

However, a market-based rescue plan for reviving the moribund credit markets and halting capital flight from the central bank have seemingly fizzled. More than $200bn (€154bn, £131bn) in government bail-out funds announced since September has done little good. Increasingly, a consensus is emerging among Russia’s economists, bankers and top business people that liberal economics needs to be given a temporary holiday.

Ruslan Grinberg, head of the institute of economics in the Russian Academy of Sciences, last week told a conference hosted by the Association of European Businesses: “The market does not believe in the rescue operations of the government. This liberal capitalism must temporarily stop its existence, and be replaced by a more regulated model of the economy.”

The stock market, which has fallen 75 per cent since May, continues to slide and the central bank has lost nearly $150bn in foreign exchange reserves since August, much of it spent defending the rouble.

Peter Aven, president of Alfa Bank, said in an interview that he supports the trend to greater state intervention: “I am a very liberal economist and I believe in very liberal values, especially in the economy, but this is for peacetime. Not during war. This is in some sense a war. And it is essential to implement some non-liberal measures.”

“The main thing is that these measures have to be temporary, not to stay forever. And of course that depends on the government.”

One factor that may lead in the direction of greater state control is the fact that the state is taking collateral for bail-out loans in shares, which may be temporarily “nationalised”.

A 25 per cent stake in Norilsk Nickel, the troubled metals producer, which was collateral for a $4.5bn loan to UC Rusal, Russia’s aluminum giant, was recently taken over by state-owned bank VEB. VEB has taken over a number of other stakes in exchange for bail-out loans as well.

In an interview with Russia Today last week, Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, Norilsk Nickel CEO, said he favoured the government taking Rusal’s 25 per cent stake as a first step to nationalisation. “I think the state buying into our firm is a positive move. Especially since the government will only give us loans if they get politicians on our board. But that’s just a temporary measure in the global financial crisis, not a permanent step.”

Mr Aven said he expected reprivatisation of shareholdings forfeited to the government by 2012. One of Alfa Bank’s holdings, a 44 per cent stake in Vimpelcom, was taken over by the state in exchange for a $2bn bail-out loan, but Mr Aven said that Alfa would have no trouble repaying the loan on time and the stake would not be nationalised.

Some experts fear greater state intervention will be open to abuse, however. Chris Weafer, head strategist at Uralsib investment bank, said many in the stock market believe the government’s ultimate aim is to take control of Norilsk and turn it into a state-run metals conglomerate similar to Gazprom.

“Norilsk Nickel appears to be heading into state control. The administration has never made any secret of its desire to create a national champion company in the metals and mining sector ... The debt problems at Rusal have presented the government with an unexpected opportunity to fill this gap and it seems that they are going for it,” said Mr Weafer in a recent client briefing.

Another target for state intervention may be banks, which have been hoarding cash, afraid to lend. As a result interbank interest rates have sharply spiked and a payments crisis has emerged in the real economy. Wages arrears, a chronic problem in the 1990s, have returned, rising sharply in October according to government statistics.

Vladimir Putin, prime minister, said in a major speech on Thursday that the state would increasingly be required to take over the role of providing credit to the economy, in the absence of western banks.

So far the government has offered bail-out funds to banks and businesses, but has not interfered in the running of banks.

While it has nationalised a handful of insolvent banks, it has largely left the highly dysfunctional sector alone. But that may yet change.

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Ex-Kremlin official could get Norilsk Nickel top job - paper
13:39 | 26/ 11/ 2008

MOSCOW, November 26 (RIA Novosti) - Norilsk Nickel could appoint a former Kremlin official as chairman of the metals giant's board of directors, a Russian business paper reported on Wednesday.

The post could go to Alexander Voloshin, who previously served as the head of the Russian presidential administration, Kommersant said, referring to a source close to the company.

Rival billionaire shareholders in Norilsk Nickel ended on Tuesday a long-standing conflict and agreed to resolve issues over control of the company, the paper said.

Vladimir Potanin, the owner of Interros holding company, which possesses around 30% of shares in Norilsk Nickel, told a press conference that he and Oleg Deripaska, the owner of aluminum giant RusAl, which holds 25% plus two shares in Norilsk Nickel, "had managed to resolve all the disputed issues as a result of dialogue."

According to Kommersant, the parties agreed on parity management of the company. In addition to Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, the general director of Norilsk Nickel who was recently appointed on Potanin's recommendation, Deripaska will appoint an executive director for the metals giant while Voloshin will oversee the company's management on behalf of the state, the paper said.

Both billionaire shareholders will also enjoy parity in the company's board of directors, which will be enlarged from 9 to 13 at a shareholder meeting on December 26, the paper said.

According to Kommersant, RusAl and Interros will have four seats each in the board of directors, which will also include three independent directors, Strzhalkovsky, and the state's representative.

The inclusion of the state's representative in the Norilsk Nickel's board of directors was one of the terms under which state-controlled Vnesheconombank agreed to grant RusAl a $4.5 billion loan to refinance its debt to a consortium of Western banks accumulated as a result of purchasing a stake in Norilsk Nickel, the paper said.

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Navies 'must co-operate' to fight piracy

By Andrew England in Ismailia

Published: November 26 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 26 2008 02:00

The head of the Suez canal yesterday urged navies patrolling the pirate-ridden waters off the east coast of Africa to take greater measures to protect ships, such as forming convoys and providing escorts for vessels vulnerable to attack.

Ahmed Aly Fadel, chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, said there needed to be greater co-ordination between the navies deployed to the region, and warned that Arab governments had to take action to prevent the piracy spilling over into the Red Sea, which is home to the key Saudi Arabia ports of Jeddah and Jizan.

The shipping world - as well as the navies patrolling the region's waters - was stunned this month when Somali pirates seized the Sirius Star, a Saudi-owned tanker fully laden with 2m barrels of oil, more than 420 nautical miles out to sea. The attack illustrated the boldness and capability of the pirates, who capture ships for ransom, often of about $2m.

The Sirius Star was heading towards the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa, but the majority of attacks have taken place in and around the Gulf of Aden, causing some shipping companies to avoid using the Suez canal.

The international waterway is critical to the Egyptian economy and in the last fiscal year it earned a record $5.2bn (€3.9bn), making it the nation's third highest source of foreign currency revenues behind tourism and remittances. The canal already faces a reduction in traffic as result of the global economic crisis.

"We can say that the international steps taken to safeguard the . . . routes in the Gulf of Aden are not enough," Mr Fadel said. "It's not a matter of more ships, it's a matter of more co-operation, more effectiveness of all the fleets there."

In response to a growing number of attacks this year, governments from around the world have deployed ships to the region in a bid to protect sea lanes. Nato also sent a task force, but after the hijacking of the Sirius Star, navies now face trying to patrol 2.5m square nautical miles.

No formal agreement exists between the navies.

There have been around 96 attacks on vessels off the Somali coast this year and dozens of ships - including a Yemeni vessel taken yesterday - have been seized.

Mr Fadel said Egypt was calling on Arab countries to co-operate to ensure that they keep the Red Sea "out of this crisis".

Last week, six Arab countries that share the Red Sea held a meeting in Cairo to come up with a response to the piracy threat, and Mr Fadel said the Egyptian and Saudi Arabian navies conducted a joint exercise in recent days. He said a follow-up to the Cairo meeting was scheduled to take place in Yemen early next month.

He claimed that foreign individuals and gangs were working with Somali pirates and warned that they could use ransom money they have collected to acquire better equipment to conduct their attacks.

However, in spite of shipping companies, including AP Moller-Maersk and Odfjell, a Norwegian company, announcing that they would divert some of their tankers to the Cape, Mr Fadel said that the piracy was not yet having any effect on traffic levels through the Suez canal.

Mr Fadel said his biggest concern was the effect of a global recession, which he estimated could cause a 10 per cent reduction in number of ships using the Suez next year.

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Mexico’s drugs war

Published: November 25 2008 21:56 | Last updated: November 25 2008 21:56

Mexico’s war on drugs costs more lives with every passing day. Drug-related killings this year exceed 4,300, according to media reports, almost double the rate of 2007.

Swathes of Mexican territory are in the control of drug cartels, rather than the government. The heavy cost of fighting them is also paid in the corrosion of Mexican democracy and its institutions, as emphasised by recent arrests of high-profile police officers allegedly in the pay of the drug barons.

Mexican territory has been the favoured route between the Andean coca growing regions and the world’s largest cocaine market since the late 1980s. But the intensification of the conflict follows a maturing of the market and a decision by the Mexican president to confront the traffickers.

The market for cocaine in the US has certainly plateaued and may be in gradual decline. This has led to a struggle for market share among rival gangs controlling the trafficking routes. Some gang members are said to have left the business and moved into other lucrative market segments, such as kidnapping.

Leadership battles within cartels also appear to have intensified following President Felipe Calderón’s decision to allow extradition of some drug barons to the US, leaving them unable to run operations from inside Mexican prisons.

In his most dramatic decision, Mr Calderón also sent in Mexico’s army to confront the traffickers. This move has had some success, though it could perhaps have been more precisely targeted, but it has stirred up a hornets’ nest. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of this policy is likely to weaken over time as corruption takes its toll in the military.

Mr Calderón deserves credit for addressing an issue to which his predecessors devoted insufficient attention. The violence is the price being paid for that oversight.

Nonetheless, the role that the US plays in this crisis is clear. As well as being the largest cocaine market, it supplies most of the traffickers’ weaponry. Meanwhile, US aid for Mexico’s drug efforts focuses excessively on hardware such as helicopters and is not sufficiently directed at supporting the police, the legal system and the judiciary.

As he reviews policy towards Mexico, president-elect Barack Obama should re-examine the aid programme. More fundamentally, he should acknowledge that reopening negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement, as he pledged during his election campaign, would severely undermine legitimate business south of the border. That would bode ill for Mexico – and for the US.

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Cash woes hit Gulf investment plan in China

By Simeon Kerr in Dubai

Published: November 26 2008 01:56 | Last updated: November 26 2008 01:56

A private equity fund launched earlier this year for Gulf money to invest in Chinese companies has been delayed as liquidity woes hit the oil-rich region, one of the fund’s partners said on Tuesday.

Victor Chu, chairman of First Eastern Investment Group, said capital constraints in the region had limited fundraising opportunities for the China Dubai Fund, a partnership with Dubai International Capital.

Cash concerns in Dubai have combined with the plummeting price of oil to slow once-roaring Gulf state economies, straining the appetite of regional investors for overseas investments.

Mr Chu, who is also a board member on DIC, said he and DIC would review the fund, which may be able to revive its activities over the next two years. The fund had originally expected to close $1bn (£650m) last month but the financial crisis has derailed these plans.

DIC on Tuesday said it had not shelved the fund, but regional fundraising had slowed and it had no timeline for a closing on the fund.

First Eastern, a Hong Kong-based direct investment company, said it remained committed to the strategic logic of linking the Gulf with the Far East as a means of forging growth.

“We are going ahead with other investments here in the Gulf,” said Mr Chu.

“We see value in bringing Chinese companies to the Gulf and helping companies here expand into the Chinese market.”

First Eastern is moving ahead with another fund, with backing in Abu Dhabi, while Mr Chu is scouting for regional buying opportunities as he seeks to invest some of the company’s $1bn in cash. “We are committed to the strategic logic of linking the Middle East with China,” he said.

DIC, the investment arm of Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, said on Tuesday the net value of its $12bn-$13bn portfolio might have been reduced to $10bn as global markets fell.

But Sameer al-Ansari, DIC chief executive, said it was hard to provide a concrete valuation as 70 per cent of the fund’s portfolio was in private equity investments.

He said there would be “tremendous opportunities” in the US over the next 12-18 months but that now was not the right time to bid.

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Detroit’s blue-collar aristocrats face fight

By Bernard Simon in Toronto

Published: November 25 2008 17:40 | Last updated: November 25 2008 17:40

Ron Gettelfinger, president of the United Auto Workers union, normally shuns the limelight. But these are not normal times for the union. Mr Gettelfinger now pops up regularly in media interviews, press conferences and, last week, at congressional hearings with the chief executives of the three Detroit-based carmakers.

The UAW chief is one of the most outspoken of those demanding $25bn in emergency funding that cash-strapped General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler are seeking from Washington to prevent them sinking into bankruptcy.

“The consequences of a collapse by the domestic auto companies would be truly devastating,” the UAW says on its website as part of what it describes as “talking points designed to get the facts out”. But the consequences of a bail-out could also be costly for the union.

Although the headlines have been dominated for the past week by the chief executives’ decision to bring their begging bowls to Washington in their corporate jets, numerous politicians, analysts and bloggers have insisted that shopfloor workers also tighten their belts.

UAW members have long enjoyed a reputation as America’s blue-collar aristocrats, with wages and benefits far above the average. Members of Congress questioned Mr Gettelfinger last week about the so-called Jobs Bank, which allows idled car workers to collect full pay just for showing up at the plant each day or performing community work.

Foreign carmakers shun big show

The squeeze on Motown has extended to the Detroit auto show, North America’s premier motor industry event.

Six foreign carmakers have dropped out of next year’s event, which opens in early January.

Nissan, the latest and biggest to pull out, said that it had no new vehicles to display and that the US economic slowdown would dent the show’s “marketing effectiveness”. Others that have abandoned Detroit include Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Rolls-Royce, Ferrari and Land Rover.

In contrast, Toyota has chosen the home turf of its embattled US rivals to unveil the latest version of its Prius hybrid hatchback.

● Several German carmakers on Tuesday announced production cuts.

Porsche said it had halted production for one day last week and planned another seven days of factory closures. It also scrapped its target of selling more vehicles than in the last fiscal year, when its sales stagnated at 98,650 cars.

Volkswagen , which is partly owned by Porsche, said it was considering suspending production for three weeks over the Christmas period at its main Wolfsburg plant, which employs 44,000.

Audi, VW’s luxury brand, said it would also stop production around Christmas for several days longer than usual.

“There’s little question that there’s going to be pressure on existing wages and salaries,” says Harley Shaiken, a labour relations expert at the University of California at Berkeley, who is normally sympathetic to the UAW. “The union and its allies will resist that, but it’s going to be a tough fight.”

The union has been in a tight spot for several years as the carmakers have slashed production in line with their falling market share and, more recently, with the shift from sport-utility vehicles and pick-up trucks to more fuel-efficient cars.

In spite of actively recruiting in hospitals, universities and at other employers outside the motor industry, the UAW has lost almost a quarter of a million members in the past seven years, in large part due to motor industry job losses. Its membership dropped to 464,900 last year, the lowest since 1941.

The union made significant concessions in new contracts negotiated last year. It agreed to take over responsibility for healthcare benefits, and backed away from its earlier opposition to a two-tier wage structure. New assembly-plant recruits will start at about $14 an hour, half the wage for existing workers, and enjoy fewer benefits. Staying in the Jobs Bank is more difficult than it used to be. But the carmakers will not reap the benefit of lower healthcare costs until 2010 and a two-tier wage structure means little at a time when few workers are being hired.

The union takes the view that it has sacrificed enough. “They haven’t fully utilised the concessions we’ve given them”, says Fred Swanner, head of a UAW local at a GM transmission plant in Baltimore. Mr Swanner also points to more flexible work practices negotiated at the plant level.

Mr Shaiken adds that “what’s key for the automakers is to have the right products. If you slash the wages of everyone remaining, that won’t get you through the current crisis.”

Mr Swanner says that in considering further sacrifices, he will be guided by Mr Gettelfinger and other union leaders. Workers at the GM plant in Baltimore, he adds, “are just as concerned and worried about the company going into bankruptcy”.

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Rio Tinto under pressure on asset sales

SYDNEY/MELBOURNE, Nov 26 – Global miner Rio Tinto Ltd said on Wednesday it was confident it could sell billions of dollars in assets to pay down massive debt, despite concerns about a lack of buyers, a day after rival BHP Billiton Ltd dropped a bid for the firm.

BHP’s shock decision on Tuesday to pull its $66 billion bid sent Rio’s shares plunging by almost 40 percent, amid concerns Rio would struggle to sell assets and cut its $39 billion in net debt during a severe global economic downturn.

”There’s no doubt it puts pressure on the management of Rio,” said Tim Barker, resources analyst at BT Investment Management, adding the debt Rio took on with its takeover of Alcan last year and the subsequent slide in aluminium prices were a key problem.

BHP Billiton cited Rio’s debt position in scrapping its hostile bid approach, as well as sliding metals prices, the threat of global recession and demands from European competition regulators to sell off some iron ore and coal assets.

But Rio Chairman Paul Skinner, speaking at a scheduled business breakfast, said the group was comfortable with its financial position, dismissed market speculation Rio would now need to raise equity and said it would make asset sales in the next few months.

”We now move on, we have a very strong company,” Skinner told reporters. ”We are confident with our financial position. We have other ways of managing our debt.”

Credit rating agency Moody’s immediately signalled a possible downgrade to Rio’s high-investment-grade A3 rating, noting that asset sales would be a key focus of its rating review.

Assets on the block include a major packaging business, aluminium products, its U.S. coal business, an Australian copper mine and its U.S. Sweetwater uranium mine.

BHP’s Rio bid was hatched last November, as mining boomed on soaring demand for iron ore, steel and other resources from China and other emerging markets. At its peak, the all-share offer valued Rio at about $193 billion, promising to be the second-largest takeover in history.

Rio Tinto shares plunged 36 percent in the first trading in Australia after BHP abandoned the bid, matching a slide in its London-listed shares. BHP jumped as much as 9 percent in Australia, following a 7 percent rise in London.

Fund managers said the slide in Rio’s shares, spurred by investors unwinding bets on the bid going ahead, created a buying opportunity.

”From a Rio Tinto point of view, we’re still dealing with a company that has first class assets,” said Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager at Pengana Capital, which holds Rio and BHP shares.

Aluminum Corp of China (Chinalco), which bought a stake in Rio in a move widely seen as an attempt to win leverage over the bid, said it planned to raise its 12 percent stake to at least 14.99 percent.

Chinalco’s U.S. partner in the stake, Alcoa Inc, had no immediate comment, but noted the companies previously said they wanted to increase their stake in Rio.

Chinalco and Alcoa have lost about $11 billion, or three-quarters of the value, on their investment last February.

Rio’s Skinner said on Wednesday the company was not courting outside investors and had never done so with Chinalco.

Rio took on debt to finance its $38.1 billion purchase of Alcan in late 2007, and committed to sell $15 billion in assets, including $10 billion this year, but the timeframe has slipped.

”There is clearly a lot to do over the coming months for Rio Tinto,” Skinner said. ”We have $9 billion debt due October 2009, and we don’t see any need to issue equity to meet that.”

Moody’s raised concern about sliding prices for copper and aluminium in the medium term and uncertainty over the outlook for iron ore. Prices of major world commodities such as copper and iron ore have halved in the five months since peaking in July.

BHP will write off about $450 million in bid costs, and is also taking $2.1 billion in pretax writedowns on nickel assets.

Fund managers said they did not expect any serious pressure on BHP’s CEO or chairman to quit over the failed bid.

”(Kloppers) has not necessarily made a mistake. But the world has changed and there’s little point in destroying shareholder value,” said Peter Chilton, an analyst at Constellation Capital Management, which has stakes in both BHP and Rio.

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Australia’s QBE to buy ZC Sterling for $575m

SYDNEY, Nov 26 – QBE Insurance Group Ltd, Australia’s top insurer by premium income, will buy U.S.-based underwriting agency ZC Sterling Corp for $575 million, part funded by a $1.3 billion equity raising, and has upped its 2008 revenue growth target.

QBE would also buy three more underwriting agencies for a total cost of $120 million. The new purchases would help QBE to achieve gross written premium of A$16.5 billion in 2009.

The company said in a statement on Wednesday it plans to raise A$2 billion ($1.3 billion) through a share placement to help fund the acquisitions.

QBE, which earns about two-thirds of revenues from offshore, said the fall in Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar was having a positive impact on QBE’s revenue. As a result, QBE raised its 2008 revenue growth forecast by 6.4 percent to A$13.3 billion.

QBE, which has completed more than 115 acquisitions in the past 25 years, said it plans to buy back up to A$1.25 billion in face value of its tier 1 perpetual securities issued in 2006 and 2007 in exchange for five-year senior notes.

The capital raising and exchange of notes is expected to strengthen QBE’s capital base, the company said.

--------------------------------
‘Problem’ banks stoke fears over FDIC fund

By Saskia Scholtes in New York

Published: November 25 2008 19:29 | Last updated: November 25 2008 21:23

The list of “problem” banks grew by almost 50 per cent in the third quarter, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation reported on Tuesday, stoking fears that further bank failures could put the agency’s insurance fund under severe pressure.

Sheila Bair, FDIC chairman, suggested more failures were likely in spite of government support for the banking industry. While the US Treasury’s capital purchase programme would bolster bank capital levels and revive lending, she said the scheme was not intended to help banks that were not “viable”, such as those on the problem list.

The number of problem banks, those deemed at risk of failure, grew from 117 to 171 in the third quarter, the largest number since the end of 1995, according to the FDIC’s quarterly report. Total assets of problem institutions increased to $115.6bn from $78.3bn.

The FDIC is working on plans to raise additional capital to shore up reserves that have been depleted by 22 bank failures so far this year, including Washington Mutual, the biggest bank to go under in US history.

Provisions for current and future failures have reduced the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund to $34.6bn, down from $45.2bn at the end of June.

The FDIC insures up to $250,000 per depositor in each bank, a temporary increase on the previous level of $100,000 that will expire at the end of 2009.

The agency is required by law to make sure its insurance fund has at least $1.15 for every $100 of insured deposits, a calculation that does not currently include the additional temporarily insured deposits.

The fund slumped to 76 cents for every $100 of insured deposits in the third quarter, a ratio that would be much lower if the temporary $250,000 insurance level were made permanent.

The FDIC said commercial banks and savings institutions reported new income of $1.7bn in the third quarter, a 94 per cent decline from the $28.7bn the industry reported a year earlier, as banks put aside more money for bad loans and sold securities and other assets at a loss. Almost one in four banks reported a net loss in the quarter.

“We’ve had profound problems in our financial markets that are taking a rising toll on the real economy,” said Ms Bair.

She urged community banks – those with assets of less than $1bn – to tap the FDIC’s debt guarantee programme and to apply for the US Treasury’s capital purchase scheme to help maintain lending levels in their communities.

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Moscow forces truce in battle for Norilsk

By Catherine Belton in Moscow

Published: November 25 2008 14:53 | Last updated: November 25 2008 20:32

The Russian state extended its grip over the world’s biggest nickel miner on Tuesday after two of the country’s richest men agreed to end a bitter battle for Norilsk Nickel and cede greater control to the government.

Oleg Deripaska and Vladimir Potanin, Norilsk’s two biggest billionaire shareholders, said the credit crunch had pushed them into agreeing a truce in their battle for control, which has helped to wipe off more than 70 per cent of Norilsk’s value since May.

The planned merger between Mr Deripaska’s UC Rusal aluminium group and Norilsk, which sparked the battle for shareholder supremacy, has been called off for at least three years.

Mr Potanin, who owns a 30 per cent stake in Norilsk and effectively seized control of the company in a shareholder vote in June, is to step down as chairman. He will be replaced by an “independent” candidate who is likely to represent the state, a person close to one of the big shareholders said.

Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, the former KGB agent and state tourism chief who took over as Norilsk’s chief executive in August, is to keep his role.

Rusal and Interros, Mr Potanin’s holding company, will have equal representation on an enlarged 13-member board, which will also include three independent directors. Candidates for the new board are to be announced on December 1.

One leading western investor in Norilsk said the state looked to have pushed the two sides into ending the conflict that has damaged the investment climate amid claims of corporate governance abuses by Mr Potanin’s Interros, which the holding company denies.

“The government has played a constructive role in telling them to stop fighting as opposed to just destroying the company in an attempt to destroy each other,” he said.

Mr Potanin said that it would be “irrational” for the group, which is battling to survive a slump in nickel prices, to go without more state involvement.

“Big private business has not exhausted its possibilities and effectiveness and we hope that our agreement will allow this to be shown,” he said. “But at the same time during the crisis it is difficult and irrational to go without help from the state.

However, Mr Deripaska insisted yesterday that a state representative taking over as chairman of Norilsk would not mean the company’s de facto nationalisation. “The state has not tried and will not try to de-privatise Norilsk,” he said.

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Shipping groups make major capacity cuts

By Robert Wright in London

Published: November 25 2008 22:55 | Last updated: November 25 2008 22:55

The world’s two largest container shipping alliances on Tuesday announced major service reductions, marking the third major set of capacity cuts in the recession-hit sector in five days.

The Grand Alliance (Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, Hong Kong’s OOCL and Japan’s NYK Line) and New World Alliance (Singapore’s Neptune Orient Lines, Korea’s Hyundai Merchant Marine and Japan’s Mitsui OSK) announced they were merging their services between Asia and the US east coast over the sector’s traditionally slow winter period. The cuts nearly halve the capacity available, to nine ships from 16.

The announcements mark an unprecedented level of co-operation between lines as they struggle with the effects of plunging demand for the consumer goods that are their main cargo. Rates to move a 20-foot container from Hong Kong to northern Europe have fallen from about $2,000 to roughly $200, creating the industry’s deepest-ever crisis.

On Monday, another major alliance, the CYKH – China’s Cosco, Taiwan’s Yang Ming, Japan’s Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha and Korea’s Hanjin – said it was cutting capacity on its Asia-Europe services by 30 per cent over the slack period.

On Friday, Denmark’s Maersk Line and France’s CMA CGM, operators respectively of the world’s largest and third-largest container ship fleets, announced they would rationalise their joint services between Asia and the United States from May next year. They did not say which services would be cut under the arrangement.

Unlike most forms of shipping, container lines run scheduled, usually weekly, sevices on each route. They suffer in downturns because vessels are left with too little cargo to cover each sailing’s operating costs.

The problems this time are being exacerbated by the extra capacity created by delivery of a new breed of far larger container ships. Some are capable of carrying as many as 13,000 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of containers, the standard capacity measure.

The vessels were intended to cut lines’ costs by distributing the ship’s fixed costs over a larger number of containers.

Philip Damas, director of liner shipping at London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants, estimated successive rounds of service cuts had already reduced the capacity of Asia-Europe services by 24 per cent this year.

“I think all the carriers are doing their utmost to employ their larger container ships by merging their services and finding a way to employ these larger ships,” he said.

Many smaller vessels, which cost more per container moved to operate, are now being temporarily taken out of service.

Mr Damas said he had estimated the industry would lose $5bn next year before the latest service cuts, although they should help to mitigate losses.

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Panasonic bid for Sanyo close to collapse

By Robin Harding in Tokyo

Published: November 26 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 26 2008 02:00

Panasonic's bid to buy Japanese rival Sanyo Electric was close to collapse yesterday after Goldman Sachs, one of Sanyo's three controlling shareholders, walked away from negotiations.

Goldman Sachs said the bank was breaking off talks because the sides were too far apart on price. There was also disagreement about the proposed deal structure, which would give Panasonic majority control while leaving a rump of listed shares in Sanyo.

A source at Daiwa SMBC Securities, another member of the controlling group, also expressed doubt about the price. "The Y120 that is being talked about does not properly reflect Sanyo's value," it said.

A possible bid at Y120 a share would give the ordinary shares a value of Y225bn ($2.4bn). However, that figure does not include the near 70 per cent held by financial investors in preference shares.

Goldman Sachs and Daiwa SMBC each own preference shares that convert to 29 per cent of Sanyo's common equity, so without their support a deal cannot go ahead.

Sanyo, which agreed to be bought by Panasonic at the start of November, will now be under pressure to explain how it will survive an economic downturn alone.

"The timing of this offer, after the financial crisis in September, meant we had to consider it concretely," said Sanyo's president, Seiichiro Sano, when he announced the negotiations.

The collapse of the deal would delay the consolidation of Japan's fragmented electronics sector. A combined Sanyo and Panasonic would have sales of Y11,000bn, matching Sanyo's leading position in lithium-ion batteries and its growth prospects in solar power with Panasonic's financial clout. Analysts have praised the industrial logic of the merger.

Both Panasonic and Sanyo declined to comment on the breakdown of negotiations.

Trading in Sanyo shares was briefly suspended yesterday after a Japanese media report that Panasonic had offered Y120 for each share in Sanyo, well below the market price, which closed down 2.5 per cent yesterday at Y156.

Panasonic said that "the company has not decided anything" in regard to the bid price, but sources close to the deal confirmed that Panasonic had indicated a price of Y120 without making a formal offer. That price is far below what Goldman Sachs wants.

The final member of the controlling group is Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp, with preference shares that convert to 11.6 per cent of Sanyo.

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East as well as west needs shelter in this crisis

By Yulia Tymoshenko

Published: November 25 2008 19:50 | Last updated: November 25 2008 19:50

Tumbling stock markets and credit crunches always unnerve. Familiar fears rush in: of expanding waves of financial distress causing weak countries and firms to flounder, of a crippled real economy and, above all, of events stampeding out of control.

Voters want their governments to do something. Those demands can create a trap that is perhaps the biggest danger in any market slide. At first, governments have mostly avoided the “beggar thy neighbour” policies that helped cause the Great Depression. In Europe, old nationalistic sins were not revisited because of wise past decisions, in particular the creation of the euro and single European market. The European Central Bank has provided almost unlimited liquidity to eurozone financial systems. The stability pact has been relaxed so that governments can borrow all they need to recapitalise their banks. Eurozone members have thus been spared confronting a currency crisis and competitive devaluations as they resolve the banking crisis.

As some calm returns, however, unforeseen traps are being exposed. The biggest is in eastern Europe, where a financial fault line has appeared owing to the public guarantees European Union governments have given their financial sectors. While EU banks have been stabilised by the guarantees, their east European subsidiaries have been left out on a limb because some governments declared that taxpayer money could not be used abroad.

The result? There has been a flight to safety by investors and bankers who fear their stakes in Ukraine and elsewhere in the region are on the wrong side of a financial Iron Curtain that the bank guarantees have created between supposedly “safe” and “risky” assets.

One reason the EU has not given priority to the fallout in eastern Europe from its policies is its failure to recognise how critical the region has become to western Europe’s prosperity. Our countries are now the eurozone’s most important export markets. If the crises in Ukraine, Hungary, Poland, the Baltic states and elsewhere in eastern Europe linger, production processes across Europe will be disrupted. There is a risk of the contagion causing lasting damage to the EU’s real economy.

My government will use the agreement with the International Monetary Fund to pass new reforms. Although we borrowed responsibly in inter­national markets, we now have to repay loans made to state-owned companies, many of which we did not know about. We will meet our obligations. But we will also ensure we are not blindsided in this way again. We will make it mandatory for all loans for which the government may be responsible to be reported – before they are made – to the finance ministry, something Austria has long required its state-owned companies to do.

Moreover, the privatisations that have been blocked for spurious political reasons for the past year will now be pushed ahead in a transparent way, with the revenues gained giving Ukraine a “rainy day” fund of the type it could have used to fight this crisis.

But nothing Ukraine and other eastern Europeans can do on our own will be enough to counter the extraordinary pressures we face. The region needs more than IMF support. We need a recognition that everyone in Europe is in this together.

The EU needs to recognise that its neighbourhood policy, never robust, must be rethought. To revive our financial systems western European banks must be allowed to use their recapitalisations to help subsidiaries in eastern Europe. The ECB must also act as a lender of last resort and provide liquidity to support eastern European currencies. We cannot print the euro liquidity that our banks need. Interest rate rises to attract euro liquidity cannot do the job. The swap arrangements the ECB has made with EU members not in the eurozone need to be extended to countries such as mine.

If European solidarity is not enough to get the EU to respond proactively, naked self-interest should be. Collapsing eastern European currencies, and resulting trade pressures, will make it harder for our governments to prevent unemployment and falling demand. Should this happen, European growth will be damaged for years to come.

Today, countries that once chose to remain outside the euro – Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, even Switzerland – are reconsidering. Hungary, Poland and others wanting to join the euro are committed to redoubling their efforts. As usual with European crises, the best solution for Europe is more Europe. That “more Europe” also needs to include every European nation.

The writer is prime minister of Ukraine

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SKorean police bust 2.6 bln dlr "pyramid" scam

AFP

Police said Wednesday they have busted South Korea's biggest-ever "pyramid" financial scam involving nearly 2.6 billion dollars collected from tens of thousands of investors.

They said they are hunting 14 swindlers, including Cho Hee-Pal who is accused of raising about 3.9 trillion won (2.6 billion dollars) from more than 30,000 investors.

Cho, 51, established a company called BMC in 2004 to lease medical devices to hospitals, bathhouses and beauty salons and recruited investors the way multi-level merchandising firms do.

He and other suspects fled early this month when police launched an investigation in two cities, Daegu and Daejeon.

"This is the country's largest pyramid fraud case. The amount of money involved and the number of victims have been swelling," Kwon Duk-Eon, a police spokesman in Daejeon, told AFP.

"Many investors may not retrieve their money because it's hard for investigators to track the bank accounts of Cho's group," he said.

Police said Cho's company lured investors, mostly middle-aged or elderly women with scant financial knowledge, with the promise of high returns. Many reinvested their dividends in the company.

Police arrested the company's vice chief Monday, and charged 103 employees without ordering their detention.

"I lost 200 million won, including 80 million won I saved over the last 20 years and 120 million won borrowed from five relatives," an unidentified woman in Daegu told the JoongAng Daily.

"An acquaintance urged me to invest in the firm last February, claiming a return of 32 percent in eight months through the business of leasing medical instruments," she added.

A pyramid scheme is a non-sustainable business model that involves the exchange of money primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme, without any product or service being delivered.

They are illegal in South Korea and many other countries.

----------------------------
World's luxury brands pin hopes on Chinese consumers

AFP Peter Harmsen

Katidja Valy has visited seven countries over the past two months, trying to sell his super-expensive Swiss watches to the world's rich, and nowhere has the interest been greater than in China.

Marketing a series of watches incorporating pieces of steel salvaged from the Titanic wreckage might seem a tough assignment against the backdrop of the worst financial crisis in half a century, but not, he said, in China.

"In some countries, they don't believe in the future. This is not the case here. Everybody wants to make business," said Valy, a communications manager with Geneva-based Romain Jerome Watches.

"It can change tomorrow, but I don't feel the financial crisis for my own brands or for any of the people I have spoken to."

Valy was exhibiting his Titanic-DNA series of watches at the Top Essence exhibition held recently in Beijing -- an opportunity for the world's top luxury brands to get a snapshot of the China market.

World-class brands such as cognac producer X.O and auto maker Bentley were present at the event -- which attracted Chinese actors and other celebrities -- but some participants admitted to having had somewhat modest expectations.

"The times have been hard since October, because of the financial crisis," said Zhao Qianying, a marketing supervisor at Mercedes Benz.

"But we think it's just a short-term phenomenon. Generally, the forecasts for Beijing are good. We expect next year to be good for luxury products."

Attendance at the exhibition turned out to be respectable, but not spectacular.

About 10,000 people paid the 150-yuan (22-dollar) ticket, roughly the same as last year, according to reports in the local media.

Not all of them were window shoppers -- take the example of Li Jingge, an IT executive, who declined to say how much he was making every year.

"I'm looking for a car. It's essential that it's a model I like. Money is not that important," he said.

But Jessica Liu, an advertising executive who was touring the show to get a sense of new trends, said she saw little concrete consumption.

"My feeling is that most people come here out of curiosity. They're window shopping. They don't really want to buy anything," she said.

Even so, foreign luxury brands are increasingly looking to China to tide them over until the world economy returns to normal.

Just as it is expected to save other parts of the world economy amid the continuing global woes, China could also become the saviour of the luxury industry -- or so the reasoning goes.

"Look at what happens to many, many brands that suffer in the United States. They are investing in China now," said Valy, of Romain Jerome watches. "Big players that have overstocked have to pay attention to China."

The question is how realistic such predictions are. The jury is still out on what to expect in the Chinese market for luxury items, which has seen annual growth of 20 to 30 percent in recent years.

Recent data are making for more pessimistic predictions for the market in the short term.

A list of China's richest people, published by US magazine Forbes in October, showed that the net worth of the 40 wealthiest fell 57 percent from a year earlier.

And economic growth next year could hit a 19-year low in 2009, the World Bank predicted this week, although at 7.5 percent this would still be a dream for Western nations fighting off recession.

"Although the situation for the domestic market is still not clear, luxury consumption will certainly be affected by the global economic crisis," Liu Zheng, an analyst of the luxury goods industry, told the China Daily newspaper recently.

"Previous surveys have shown that many consumers of luxury goods are young office workers, whose purchasing power for the items is extremely unstable," he said

-----------------------------
Sweden's Skanska cuts 3,400 jobs

AFP

Swedish construction group Skanska said on Tuesday that it is to cut 3,400 jobs in the Nordic region, of which 2,000 are to go in Sweden, owing to the slowing in the economy.

Skanska employs 20,500 people in the Nordic region and 60,000 worldwide.

The company said it was adapting to "anticipated volume declines" in the Nordic market.

The measures were expected to affect 2,000 employees in Sweden, with 600 in Finland and 800 in Norway, next year.

"The main reason is the extremely sharp decline in the residential (construction) markets but a weakening of other building segments is also anticipated," the company said.

The reorganisation will cost about 600 million kronor (58 million euros, 74.5 million dollars).

The group recalled that in the third quarter it had reported a fall in profits, notably in its core construction business, and it expected this trend to continue into 2009 as orders in the Nordic countries falls 15 percent.

In the July to September period, Skanska's net profit dropped 3.05 percent to 1.19 billion kronor (121.4 million euros, 149 million dollars), while sales dipped one percent to 36 billion kronor.

In the core construction division, sales were off 4.5 percent to 35.89 billion kronor.

--------------------------
Imperial Tobacco annual profits drop 52%

AFP

Britain's Imperial Tobacco said on Tuesday that its annual net profits tumbled 52 percent on costs related to its takeover of French-Spanish rival Altadis.

Net profit plunged to 428 million pounds (503 million euros, 646 million dollars) in the year to September 30, the maker of Davidoff and Embassy cigarettes said in an earnings statement.

Group revenue, however, soared 66 percent to 20.528 billion pounds thanks to Imperial's purchase of Altadis for 12.8 billion euros (18.8 billion dollars).

The takeover created Europe's second-biggest tobacco company, behind Altria Group's Philip Morris, making about 312 billion cigarettes a year.

Imperial announced in June following its takeover that the new group was cutting 2,440 jobs.

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Chinalco plans stake increase in Rio Tinto

Reuters Polly Yam

Aluminium Corp of China (Chinalco) plans to lift its stake in Rio Tinto to at least 14.99 percent, Chinalco vice president and spokesman Lu Youqing said on Tuesday, after BHP Billiton said it was abandoning a $66 billion (43 billion pounds) bid to buy Rio Tinto.

State-owned metals firm Chinalco, the parent of listed aluminium producer Chalco, teamed up with U.S. aluminium firm Alcoa at the end of January to buy about 9 percent of Rio Tinto for $14 billion, seen by analysts at the time as posing an obstacle to BHP's bid for Rio.

Lu said Chinalco was now aggressively preparing to raise its Rio stake to the 14.99 percent level approved by Australian regulators.

"(I) cannot say when, because it will affect the price of Rio shares," Lu said.

Rio Tinto's London-listed shares fell 36.73 percent to 1,575 pence by 4:56 p.m. GMT.

Gaining 14.99 percent was the first step in Chinalco's plan to buy Rio's shares, he said, adding that the Chinese firm had confidence in Rio's assets and management.

"There will still be room for buying more Rio shares. After completing (the purchase of 14.99 percent), we may apply to buy more if we see that is a good buy," Lu said.

Lu said Chinalco might consider seeking as much as 49.99 percent of Rio, but that was an idea that had been suggested by investment bankers and was not the company's policy.

"Some company leaders are considering 49.99 percent," Lu told Reuters by phone.

Later, Chinalco issued a statement to clarify its stance.

"Chinalco has not made any decision in respect of its investment options in Rio Tinto, including the possibility of increasing its holding above 15.00 percent," it said.

On the possibility of merging Chinalco and Rio, Lu said: "This may be difficult because of legal issues. The Chinese government would not want us to be controlled, and the Australian government would not want Rio to be controlled."

But Lu said he did not rule out a possibility of such a merger in the future, given changing market conditions.

Asked if Chinalco wanted to become a majority shareholder in Rio, he said: "We would certainly want to."

Lu said Chinalco was increasing its funds amid the tough financial situation, and planned to save up to 60 billion yuan (5.7 billion pounds), excluding funds for buying more Rio shares.

Lu said BHP's decision to pull out of its bid for Rio was good for the two Anglo-Australian mining giants and for Chinalco as the companies would focus on their own development.

"BHP's decision is the right one," Lu said.

NO INTEREST IN BHP

For now Chinalco was not considering buying a stake in BHP, even though it was a good company, he said. It might consider doing so if its plan to take a higher stake in Rio was barred.

Chinalco's investment in Rio -- China's biggest overseas purchase ever -- prompted regulators in Australia, which has strict foreign ownership rules, to launch a review of the deal.

They later said Chinalco and Alcoa could buy up to 14.99 percent of Rio Tinto.

BHP's decision would improve Rio's performance because its management would no longer be worried about being taken over, Lu said.

"The current economic conditions are a test to firms. To a good company, it is an opportunity," Lu said.

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正社員１０００人削減へ業績悪化で日本ＩＢＭ
2008.11.26 11:42
このニュースのトピックス：景気

　日本ＩＢＭが正社員の６％に当たる１０００人規模の人員削減を年内に実施することが２６日、分かった。金融危機を受けた景気減速などから７～９月期の売上高が前年同期比で減少するなど業績が悪化。人件費を削減し収益力を高める狙いとみられる。

　東芝やシャープは既に派遣社員の削減に乗り出しており、電機業界のリストラは一段と広がってきた。

　具体的には、定年の５５歳まで勤めた社員に対し現在行っている経済援助制度を廃止し、定年まで勤務するメリットをなくす。これによって退職を促す方針だ。

　同社はこれまでも業績目標を達成できない社員に退職を勧めてきた。退職者には退職金を積み増す場合もあるという。

----------------------------
シリア技術協力めぐり対立　米欧とＩＡＥＡ事務局長
2008.11.26 16:32

　北朝鮮の支援による秘密核開発が指摘され、国際原子力機関（ＩＡＥＡ）が調査をしているシリアに、ＩＡＥＡの技術協力を新たに認めることをめぐり米国や欧州連合（ＥＵ）が難色を示し、認めるべきだと主張するＩＡＥＡのエルバラダイ事務局長と対立。２７日からのＩＡＥＡ理事会で最終決定する。

　問題になっているのは原子力発電所の「実現可能性と候補地選択」に関する技術協力。２００９年から１１年を対象とした３５万ドル（約３３００万円）規模。ＩＡＥＡは核物質の軍事転用防止に向けた査察活動のほか、原子力の平和利用促進を目的とした技術協力なども行っている。（共同）

----------------------------
けいざいフラッシュ：日本水産、９月中間赤字２０億円に

　日本水産は１２日、０８年９月中間連結決算で２０億円の最終（当期）赤字（前年同期は１２億円の黒字）に転落したと発表した。中間決算段階での最終赤字は、連結決算の公表を始めた００年以降初めて。米国発の金融危機により北米での食品販売が低迷したほか、南米でのサケ養殖事業が魚病の発生で振るわなかったことなどが響いた。売上高は前年同期比３％減の２５９０億円、営業利益は同６０％減の２５億円だった。スケソウダラなど原材料の価格高騰によるコスト増が約３３億円に上り、収益を圧迫した。

-----------------------------
漁業大手　日水が赤字転落、他２社は増益

2008年11月12日22時28分

　漁業大手３社の０８年９月中間連結決算が１２日出そろった。海外の養殖事業で損失が発生した日本水産が純損益で赤字に転落。マルハニチロホールディングスと極洋の２社は、原料値上げ分の販売価格への転嫁が順調に進むなど、増益だった。

　日水は、チリのサケ養殖会社で魚の病気が発生したほか、北米での外食事業が不振だった。連結決算を発表し始めた００年以降の中間決算で赤字は初めて。０９年３月期通期も、純利益５０億円の見通しを２０億円に下方修正した。

　最大手のマルハニチロは、子会社の「神港魚類」（神戸市）が関与した中国産ウナギの偽装問題で、販売を中止したウナギの在庫の評価損７億円を特別損失に計上した。

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庶民の味方ノリ弁が危機！　救世主は“ナマズ”？
ノリ弁に欠かせないものといえば白身魚のフライ。しかし価格高騰から存亡の危機に立たされているため、“代替魚”としてナマズに注目が集まっている。弁当チェーンやファミレスなどにフライ用として売り込んでいくようだが、果たして日本人に好まれるのだろうか？

　ノリ弁に欠かせない白身魚のフライが、価格高騰から存亡の危機に立たされている。欧米の需要増や漁獲制限により、材料として多用されるスケトウダラはここ数年で倍に値上がった。そこで救世主（？）として立ち上がったのがナマズだ。大手水産会社は“代替魚”にナマズの一種で安いベトナム産淡水魚「バサ」に着目し、輸入量を大幅に増やす方針だ。

　2006年にバサの輸入を始めた水産大手「マルハニチロホールディングス」傘下の「マルハニチロ水産」は、2009年度に2007年度比で3.5 倍の850トンをベトナムから輸入する。現地の工場でフィレ切り身に加工して冷凍。輸入後は主に弁当チェーン、学校給食、ファミレスなどへフライ用として売り込んでいく。

　バサは大きなもので体長1.5メートル、体重250キロの超大型淡水魚で、主にメコン川に生息し、カンボジア、ベトナムでは食用魚として親しまれている。特にベトナムではベトナム戦争後、日常的にナマズを食べる米国への輸出用として養殖が盛んになった。

　白身フライの主役だったスケトウダラは2004年に1キロあたり300円台だったのが、昨年後半に500円台まで上昇した。今年に入ると600円台まではね上がり、秋になっても下がる気配はない。「漁獲資源が減少しても健康食志向による欧州の買いが旺盛で、日本が国際価格を先導できなくなった」（卸会社）と、日本の“買い負け”状態が続いた。価格高騰は学校給食や弁当チェーンを直撃。弁当店ではノリ弁など300円台の激安弁当に白身魚フライは定番だけに、「このままではおかずを抜いた生粋のノリ弁にせざるを得ない」（都内の弁当店）と追い込まれていた。

　バサの価格はスケトウダラと比べて3分の1程度。マルハニチロHDでは「欧米ではかなりの量が流通していて、『魚臭さ』がないためソテーやフライ用に好まれている」（広報IR部）と説明するように、淡泊な味でクセはないという。「〇〇ナマズ」のような和名は付けずバサのままで販売していく。

　ただ課題もある。同社では「世界一の魚食大国で目と舌が肥えているだけに、日本人になじみのない魚を売るのは本当に難しい。メロやホッコクアカエビなどの成功例もあるが、バサはどうなるか……」と懸念している。

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定額給付金めぐり町村会…麻生氏にヤジ、鳩山氏に喝采

　全国町村会が２６日に東京都で開いた大会で、定額給付金交付への協力を求めた麻生首相が厳しいヤジを浴びた。

　「実施にはすべての市町村の協力が不可欠だ」と呼びかけた首相に対し、一部の出席者が「丸投げをやめろ」などと声を上げた。所得制限に関する方針が二転三転した揚げ句、実施するかどうかを市町村の判断に委ねたことへの不満からだ。首相のあいさつ後には、「麻生内閣総理大臣万歳」を三唱したが、同調しない町村長も少なくなかった。

　　　　　　　　　　◇

　逆に拍手喝采(かっさい)を受けたのは、民主党の鳩山幹事長だった。

　大会に欠席した弟の鳩山邦夫総務相が所得制限のあり方などに異を唱えたことを踏まえ、「兄弟がますます仲良くなった。釈然としない、という思いを共有しているからだ」と語りかけた。さらに、「（定額給付金の）２兆円を市町村に１０億円ずつ渡せば、はるかに効率的にお金が回る。今からでも遅くないので鳩山大臣にお伝え願えれば」と提案し、会場を沸かせた。

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European vote to take sting out of falling bee numbers

By Helen Warrell

Published: November 21 2008 14:18 | Last updated: November 21 2008 14:18

MEPs voted on Thursday overwhelmingly in favour of providing ’recovery zones’ in European farmland to help rebuild the region’s declining bee population.

The resolution, which was passed by 485 votes to 13, follows fears that European food production could be threatened if there were fewer bees to pollinate crops of fruit and vegetables. So far this year German bee populations have dropped by a quarter and British beekeepers are expected to lose up to ten per cent of their hives this winter alone.

The population has been endangered by long distance transportation of bees between countries as well as increased use of pesticides, which can weaken the insects’ immune systems. The development of genetically-modified crops and the spread of fungal infections and viruses have also contributed to the decline.

MEPs hope their directive – set up under the Common Agricultural Policy – will spur the EU executive to help to set up patches of farmland planted with pollen and nectar-rich plants to act as ’recovery zones’ for ailing insects. It would also fund research into the parasites and diseases which are harming bee populations, provide financial aid to apiaries with infected colonies, and combat ineffective pollination by banning pesticide treatment while crops are in flower.

Struan Stevenson, the Scottish Conservative MEP said: ”Albert Einstein wasn’t lying when he said that if bees disappeared from the world then mankind would follow shortly after.”

”We must invest more into bee research to establish the exact causes of the shrinking bee population so that we can urgently put measures in place to combat the decline.”

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Caucasian students attack Slavic-looking people in Moscow screaming 'Slay the Russians!'
26.11.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/history/106749-caucasian_students-0

The Moscow police are seriously concerned about ethnic conflicts at Moscow universities. The incidents became a lot more frequent after the recent fight between the students of the Moscow Pedagogical University – the natives of Ingushetia and North Ossetia. The massive fight took place on November 17 and ended with the killing of a 19-year-old student.

Such incidents are not rare for Moscow high schools, the Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports. Their discussion boards are abundant with expressions of hostility. Officials say that extremist individuals, who stand strongly against the presence of non-Russian students at Moscow colleges, provoke the conflicts. However, the above-mentioned fight shed the new light on the problem. Most of such conflicts occur between non-Russian students representing different nations, presumably Caucasian.

There are about 120,000 foreign students studying at Moscow universities and institutes. Most of them come from the Commonwealth of Independent States, as well as Asia, Africa and Latin America. In addition, Moscow colleges provide targeted positions for university entrants from national republics. For example, Russian universities have been providing about 600 state-funded spaces for applicants from Chechnya during the recent several years. Ingushetia received 700 spaces at Russian universities last year; 153 spaces were provided for Dagestan.

Senior official of the Moscow Police Department, Ivan Glukhov, said at a recent press conference that the number of hate crimes committed by students was growing in Moscow. The students of Caucasian nationalities have engaged into several massive fights in Moscow recently. The students presumably came from Azerbaijan, Armenia, north Ossetia and Kabardino-Balkaria.

The official added that the students of Caucasian nationalities organize their own criminal groups to conduct subversive activities against the people of Slavic looks. “They attack people screaming “Slay the Russians” and film their attacks on video,” the official said. One of such groups was known in Moscow as “Black Hawks.”

A spokesperson for one of the Moscow universities said on conditions of anonymity that many of the students, who arrive in Moscow from foreign countries, come from well-to-do families. Once they settle in Moscow, the young people prefer not to spend their time on studies. They simply do what they want and wait for their diplomas. If problems arise, they all can be solved financially, the official said.

The problem of Caucasian students at Moscow universities is not new at all. Moscow students held an action of protest in September 2006. The students from 26 Moscow high schools signed an address to the Ministry for Education. The students attempted to attract officials’ attention to Moscow dormitories and urged to cancel the targeted enrollment of school graduates from Caucasian and CIS republics. The Russian students protested against the tyranny of Caucasian natives at Russian universities.

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Russia set to re-enter Latin American markets
20:31 | 25/ 11/ 2008

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Fedyashin) - On November 22-23, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev attended the 16th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, the capital of Peru, and subsequently paid an official visit to Peru November 24.

Through November 28, President Medvedev will also visit Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba.

The Russian leader's visits to these four countries are even more important than the APEC summit, because APEC is just a top-level discussion club, whose members are under no obligation to abide by any contractual-legal commitments or regulations or to implement specific declarations being passed by consensus. In effect, all APEC decisions are purely voluntary.

The latest APEC summit was held in the wake of the G20 summit in Washington that achieved general agreement on how to cooperate in key areas to strengthen economic growth, deal with the financial crisis, and lay the foundation for reform to avoid similar crises in the future.

The Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (G20) includes officials from 20 economies: 19 of the world's 25 largest national economies, plus the European Union, comprising 90% of global gross national product, 80% of world trade (including EU intra-trade) and two-thirds of the world population.

Unlike previous APEC summits, the latest meeting passed two documents, namely, the Lima political declaration and a special economic statement stipulating commitments in 12 areas. The 21 summit delegates, including 10 G20 members, supported the G20 summit's decisions.

APEC, which was established in 1989, comprises 21 countries and territories, namely, Australia, Brunei, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Canada, the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Russia, Singapore, the United States, Thailand, Taiwan, the Philippines, Chile, South Korea and Japan.

The 2012 APEC is scheduled to be held on Russky Island near Vladivostok in Russia's Far East.

The Lima summit pledged to liberalize trade still further and to make headway on the Doha Development Round, the current trade-negotiation round of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which commenced in November 2001.

Although APEC has been promising to continue the Doha Development Round, it has still achieved little in this respect.

APEC leaders also pledged to contribute more to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to fight the global economic crisis and high-seas piracy, the latest challenge facing humankind. But it was decided not to introduce any new protectionist measures in the next 12 months because at present there are more than enough trade barriers.

The final Lima declaration says it will take 18 months to overcome the current crisis. This provision was allegedly included at the insistence of Peruvian President Alan Garcia.

President Garcia has found himself in an involved situation made worse by the global crisis. The people of Peru are suffering from inflation and poverty, and becoming more discontent with his extravagance.

The Peruvian leader, who leads the Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana, a left-wing political party, is now supported by just 19% of the population, but wants to run for president again. Consequently, he wants to demonstrate economic successes and to set a deadline for ending the crisis.

President Garcia ranks among other leftist or moderately leftist Latin American leaders now ruling many South American countries. Nonetheless, he has already managed to quarrel with the firebrand Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivia's Evo Morales.

Regardless of who rules Peru, Moscow has maintained strong relations with Lima since the late 1970s. Numerous Peruvian students enroll at Russian universities. The country's armed forces still have Soviet-made weapons, including Russian helicopters.

Russian-Peruvian military-technical cooperation will continue. Moreover, Russia is ready to conduct joint prospecting operations in Peru and to help develop local oil deposits.

To be frank, oil and gas cooperation is a major aspect of the Russian president's foreign visits.

Brazil, a member of the BRIC group, which also comprises the rapidly developing economies of Russia, India, and China, is no exception. Moscow is ready to expand ties with this country, which is called a separate continent by other Latin American nations.

President Medvedev will visit the headquarters of Petrobras, or Petroleo Brasileiro S.A., a semi-public Brazilian energy company in Rio de Janeiro. He will also meet with the CEOs of state-owned and private companies working in the energy, ore-mining, agro-industrial and banking sectors.

Russian energy giant Gazprom is set to open a Brazilian office next year. Moscow and Brasilia are also ready to expand bilateral cooperation in the field of space research and to build a space center near the Equator.

Moscow considers Venezuela a high-priority partner. Hugo Chavez has established strategic partnership relations with the Kremlin. Both countries are setting up a joint bank with a $4 billion statutory capital for financing oil refinery construction.

Russia is ready to help Venezuela with nuclear power plant construction. RusAl (Russian Aluminum), the world's largest aluminum company, has announced plans to build an aluminum plant in Venezuela.

Russia's largest automaker, AvtoVAZ, is prepared to build assembly plants in the country.

Since 2005, Caracas and Moscow have signed 12 arms sale agreements stipulating the delivery of Kalashnikov assault rifles, T-90 main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, Sukhoi Su-30 fighters and helicopters worth $4 billion. Venezuela also wants to buy submarines and warships from Russia.

On November 25, presidents Medvedev and Chavez will open the first large-scale Russian-Venezuelan naval exercise, due to last through November 30.

The Russian leader will also visit Cuba, especially since bilateral relations are receiving a new lease of life. Both sides are to sign documents stipulating cooperative oil-prospecting operations within Cuba's international boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico. Experimental wells are currently being drilled there.

President Medvedev's visit highlights Russia's increasingly de-ideologized relations with Latin America. Frankly speaking, mutual relations have always been marked by serious national-pragmatic considerations. Suffice it to say that Lada cars became the most popular motor vehicles in Chile under the then dictator Augusto Pinochet (1915-2006).

The administration of George W. Bush has also de-ideologized relations with Latin America to the extent possible. Since 2000, Washington has virtually ignored every Latin American nation south of the Panama Canal except Mexico.

U.S. officials who are scaring Americans with Russia's assertion in South America overlook the fact that Washington supported most South American dictators but then unexpectedly started ignoring its own "backyard."

It was Latin America who invited Moscow to cooperate. In fact, Russia didn't have to do much to be a part of politics there.

We should not have any illusions about Russia's Latin American foray because the United States will never leave the region and because it will restore ties with nations that have hit an all-time low under President Bush.

Although Barack Obama will facilitate this process, it will take some time to reinstate mutual contacts because the next U.S. administration will first have to deal with the global economic crisis and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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Courting Syria: London joins the queue
15:36 | 25/ 11/ 2008

Rime Allaf for RIA Novosti

There was much ado about very little last week, as British media covered the visit of Foreign Secretary David Miliband’s visit to the Middle East. In particular, his trip to Syria was feted as an exploit of British diplomacy, with various journalists and analysts describing the event as a move to “bring Syria in from the cold” and to lead it back into the greener pastures of the Anglo-American sphere (also known as “the international community”).

While a few reports reluctantly acknowledged that France had actually initiated the rapprochement earlier this year, this was apparently just “breaking the ice;” in other words, we are to understand that Britain is single-handedly bringing Syria out of its isolation, so long as the latter undertakes to tackle the usual set of demands. Speaking to the BBC, Miliband summed up his diplomatic stance with great precision, stating that Syria could be “a force for stability or it can be a force for instability.”

This seemingly vague explanation is actually a fitting illustration of Britain’s current political position, especially in the Middle East, and especially during this transitional period when nobody is quite sure how the new American president will conduct foreign policy. By the time President Obama gets settled in January 2009, the region will be expecting elections in Israel (February), in Lebanon (May) and in Iran (June), in addition to the provincial elections in Iraq scheduled for end January. While this would put many big decisions on hold, politics and bilateral relations have continued to develop while Britain was a mere spectator, and this might explain its eagerness to claim its stake in the regional pie. However, for the time being, it is unclear exactly where Britain stands, as demonstrated in its equivocal and hesitant approach.

It was of course France which broke ranks with a general American and European coolness, if not total freeze, towards Syria. Following Syria’s contribution to ending the stalemate in Lebanon (leading to the Doha Agreement in May this year), President Nicolas Sarkozy invited Syrian President Bashar Assad to attend the Union for the Mediterranean Summit in Paris, and the subsequent military parade on July 14. Photos of Assad on the official tribune along the Champs-Elysées, and of the increasingly busy VIP lounge at Damascus airport, speak volumes about the definite thaw in Syria’s relations with most European countries; Britain is merely trying to catch up with the rest, and media reports claiming a leading role (or reporting planned Anglo-Syrian intelligence cooperation as if it were a British concession) have bordered on the ridiculous.

France has even brought a new element into the equation with Syria: instead of pressuring it to cut its ties with the Iranian regime, Sarkozy has suggested using the good offices of Damascus as a conduit to Tehran, with which most still have trouble dealing. For three decades, the Syrian-Iranian relationship has survived a sustained Western effort to break the alliance (through sanctions and isolation) and to shift the politics of both regimes. Neither Syria’s rapprochement with its critics, nor its on-off negotiations with Israel, have dampened the rapport, which only a radical change in either country would shift.

While Syrian-European relations continue to improve, interesting developments in the relations with Russia have caught many observers’ attention. During the so-called Russian-Georgian war last August, Syria was quick to position itself on the side of Russia and to describe the incident as a provocation from Georgia. While Syria’s particular support makes no difference to a powerful country like Russia, it nevertheless served to remind everyone of two major points: first, Russia’s involvement in the region could make a difference and is wanted, and second, attempting to isolate Syria is delivering the wrong results.

There is a definite nostalgia in the region, on the popular level if not necessarily on the official one, for a return to the days of Russian involvement in the Middle East. The events of August were viewed by many in the region as being a typical American-backed enterprise to position a puppet for more power, and the response of Russia was mostly defended by Arabs, who saw similarities with their own predicament. (Even in the blogosphere, there was much solidarity with the Russian position, and much delight with the reported conversation between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his British counterpart, in which the latter was given a strong dressing down.)

All these developments cannot have been good news for countries trying to increase the limited influence to which they cling in the Middle East. Thus, caught between a French government which took a leading role and beat everyone to the front line, an American administration which has already pledged to rely on dialogue before other measures, and a Russian government which is being lured back into the Middle East, Britain wants to gain a foothold and to rekindle its relations with Syria, a country whose rising fortunes, and whose strategic weight, it has unwisely disregarded.

There is no doubt that Syria stands to gain from better relations with the UK, while knowing full well that Britain needs this too; simultaneously, Syria does not feel it excludes it from having stronger relations with Russia. What remains to be seen is the attitude of the new administration in the US, and how it may affect the changing political arena.

Rime Allaf is an Associate Fellow, Chatham House, London

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生保９社の基礎利益　全社落ち込み　上期業績「金融危機」直撃
2008.11.26 21:41

　日本生命保険など生命保険主要９社の平成２０年度上半期（４～９月期）業績が２６日、出そろった。金融危機による市場の混乱で保有する株式などで損失が大幅に膨らんだのに加え、本業のもうけを示す基礎利益も全社が落ち込み、９社合算で前年同期比１９・０％減の９１７１億円となった。

　国内外株式を含む有価証券評価損は住友生命保険を除く８社で拡大した。中でも、三井生命保険の評価損は３７９億円と、前年同期の７８・８倍と大きく膨らんだ。健全性向上のため、三井生命は５００億円、朝日生命保険は３５０億円の資本増強を行うと発表した。

　一般企業の売上高に相当する保険料等収入は、９社合算で前年同期比０・４％減の８兆５２５２億円。株式市場の低迷で変額年金保険の販売が落ち込んだことなどが響いた。

　一方、経営再建中の米ＡＩＧ（アメリカン・インターナショナル・グループ）傘下の国内３生保も上半期業績を発表した。アリコジャパンは保有するＡＩＧ株式の下落を受けて、１４１０億円の最終赤字となり、一般の株式会社の資本金に相当する持ち込み資本を５２６億円追加で積み立てたと発表した。

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路交通量２・６％減　２０３０年予測　初の下方修正
2008.11.26 22:27

　国土交通省は２６日、道路整備の中期計画策定の基となる平成４２（２０３０）年の交通量予測を、１７（０５）年に比べ少子高齢化の加速などにより２・６％減少すると発表した。交通量は従来、３２（２０）年まで増えると予測していたが、今後は減少に転じると初めて示した。国会などで「需要予測が甘く、道路事業費を過大に見積もった」などの批判を受けていた。

　交通量の予測は、全国の車の総台数に走行距離を掛けた「台キロ」で示す。今回の予測によると交通量は３２年に７５６０億台キロ、４２年には７４９０億台キロと試算。１７年の実績値は７６９０億台キロで、それぞれ１・７％、２・６％の減少となる。

　昨年まとめた予測では、人口が１７年から減り始めるものの、女性や高齢者のドライバーが増え、交通量は３２年ごろまで増加するとしていた。しかし既に足元の１８年時点でも予測を下回っており、見通しの甘さが指摘されていた。

　今回の予測にあたっては、自動車の保有台数の減少や高齢者の免許返納率の上昇、ガソリン価格変動などを加味。その結果、毎年０・１％前後の減少を続けると変更した。

　国交省はこの予測などを基にして１２月中に新たな道路整備の中期計画（２０～２４年度）をまとめる。２６日に公表した同計画の骨子によると、「選択と集中の基本的な方向性を示す計画」と位置づけ、「徹底したコスト縮減と無駄の排除に取り組む」と明記。道路整備に必要な事業費は、来年度から特定財源が一般財源化されるため、計画には示さない。

　このほか、新たに地方版の計画を作るなど、地方への配慮も示した。ただ各地の道路建設が抑制される可能性もあり、整備の遅れている地方からは不満の声が上がることも予想される。

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「保育ママ制度」を法制化　改正児童福祉法が成立
2008.11.26 20:48

　保育所の待機児童対策として自宅で原則３歳未満の乳幼児を預かる「保育ママ制度」の法制化などを柱とする改正児童福祉法が、２６日の参院本会議で全会一致で可決、成立した。一部を除き来年４月に施行される。

　同法では、保育ママ制度を「保育に欠ける乳幼児を家庭的保育者の居宅などで保育する」と明確に位置付け、市区町村が国庫補助を受けやすくする。これに伴い、厚生労働省は保育ママの実施基準（省令）とガイドラインも新たに作成する。保育士や看護師でなくても、子育て経験者などが一定の研修を受講した場合は、保育ママとして国が補助できるようになる。

　同法には、生後４カ月までの乳児がいる全家庭を行政側が訪問する「こんにちは赤ちゃん事業」の法制化や、児童養護施設での虐待対策強化、養子縁組を前提としない養育里親の制度化なども盛り込まれた。

　また、従業員３０１人以上の企業に子育て支援の行動計画策定を義務付けている次世代育成支援対策推進法も改正され、対象が従業員１０１人以上の中小企業まで広がることになった。

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経団連、副会長枠を３人増員

　日本経団連は26日、現在10―15人の副会長の枠を13―18人に増やすと発表した。年末に定款を変え、経済産業相の審査を経たうえで来年5月から適用する。今の金融危機が長引く恐れがあるため、副会長の布陣を厚くすることで政策課題に弾力的な対応ができる体制とする。

　経団連は2002年に旧日経連と統合した際に今の定款を定めており、副会長はこれまで15人体制が続いてきた。経団連は「世界同時不況で副会長が経営する各社の活動が忙しくなる一方、少子化、環境、グローバル化の課題が多い。人数を増やし事態に備えたい」としている。

　いまの15人の副会長を何人まで増やすかはまだ決めていない。副会長の任期は通常は2期4年まで。来年5月に丸4年を迎える副会長は張富士夫トヨタ自動車会長と三村明夫新日本製鉄会長の2人。(22:38)

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アリコジャパンの上期、純損失1410億円

　経営危機に陥った米アメリカン・インターナショナル・グループ（ＡＩＧ）傘下のアリコジャパンの2008年度上半期の純損失が、1410億円に達した。保有するＡＩＧ株の大幅な下落が響いた。財務基盤の安定化に向け、経営母体の米アリコは26日付でアリコジャパンに、526億円の資本注入を実施した。

　アリコジャパンは今上期、有価証券含み損3061億円を計上。このうち2235億円を日本の法律上、資本金の代わりに持っていたＡＩＧ株が占めた。

　アリコジャパンへの資本注入は9月末に続き2度目。総額1434億円に達した。

　ＡＩＧ関連ではＡＩＧスター生命保険との合併を目指すＡＩＧエジソン生命保険も同日、605億円の資本増強を発表した。アリコ、スター、エジソンの3社はＡＩＧのリストラで売却対象となっている。「10月以降も銀行窓販で販売に大きな影響が出ている」（ＡＩＧ広報部）としており、資本増強で資産の劣化を防ぎたい考えだ。(20:02)

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全信組連、初の中間赤字　リーマン債の売却響く

　信用組合の上部組織である全国信用協同組合連合会（全信組連）が26日発表した2008年9月中間期業績は最終損益が32億円の赤字だった。前年同期は 26億円の黒字。破綻した米リーマン・ブラザーズ債の売却損が響いた。全信組連は自己資本比率の低下を補うため、来年1月末までに300億円程度の資本増強を実施する方針だ。

　全信組連が中間赤字に転落するのは中間期業績の開示を始めた02年度以降で初めて。59億円分保有していたリーマン債を全額売却したことによる損失が主因だ。自己資本比率（単体）は11.82％と3月末から1.43ポイント低下した。

　全信組連は自己資本比率を引き上げるため、09年1月末までをメドに300億円程度の資本増強に踏み切る。傘下の信用組合から劣後ローンで調達する方針だ。増資によって経営の健全性を高めるとともに、年度末に向けた傘下信組への資本支援に備えるのが狙い。全信組連は全国の信組の余剰資金を預かって一括運用する一方、経営不振の信用組合に対して資本注入による支援を実施している。(15:12)

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「総合取引所」実現へ法改正　政府方針

　政府は商品取引所法と金融商品取引法を改正する。証券取引所と商品取引所が持ち株会社を設立し、経営統合に踏み切りやすい環境を整える。ひとつのグループで株式や債券、商品先物などを扱う「総合取引所」の実現を促す。世界的な金融危機で市場環境が悪化しているものの、国内取引所の競争力を強化し、金融センターとしての日本の地盤沈下に歯止めをかけるべきだと判断した。2010年をめどに施行したい考えだ。

　経済産業省は商品取引所法改正案の骨格をまとめ、27日に開く産業構造審議会（経産相の諮問機関）の商品取引所分科会に提出する。金融庁も金商法改正案の詳細を年末までに詰め、両省庁が来年1月の次期通常国会に法案を提出する見通しだ。(07:00)

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農林中金、08年度中に１兆円増資へ　金融危機下で国内最大規模

　農林中央金庫は25日、今年度中に1兆円を上回る規模で資本を増強する方針を固めた。当初は3000億円規模を計画していたが、長引く金融市場の混乱を踏まえ、保有する有価証券の価格下落に伴う自己資本の目減りを補うため、増資額を大幅に増やして財務基盤を強化する。全国の信用農業協同組合連合会（信連）などＪＡグループ内から資金調達する方向で調整している。

　増資額が1兆円を超えると、今回の金融危機下での資本増強としては国内金融機関で最大規模。具体的な調達方法は今後詰めるが、返済義務のない資本（中核的資本）に算入可能な優先出資証券などの方法で調達する見通し。9月中間期末の自己資本比率は国際業務を手がける金融機関に求められる8％を上回る11％超のもようだ。(07:00)

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不動産ファンド大手パシフィック、中国資本が支援

　信用力が低下している不動産ファンド大手のパシフィックホールディングスに対して中国資本が支援に乗り出すことが26日、明らかになった。パシフィックは優先株を中心に総額約475億円を中国資本から調達する。26日夕方にも発表する。

　パシフィックの支援先となる中国資本は、中柏ジャパン（東京・千代田）を受け皿会社として資金を拠出する。中柏ジャパンは近く、複数の中国の大手上場不動産会社から約475億円の資金を調達する計画。その後、パシフィックが実施する第三者割当増資（普通株約5億円、優先株約200億円）と、新規に発行する普通社債約270億円のすべてを引き受ける。

　パシフィックは08年11月期に不動産不況の影響で250億円の連結最終赤字（前期は120億円の黒字）に陥る見通し。信用力を補完するため、大和証券グループ本社と支援交渉を進めたが折り合わず、9月末から新たな支援先を探していた。大和との交渉は打ち切る。(16:20)

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プリン体も85％カット　アサヒビールが第3のビール

　アサヒビールは26日、同社が発売している他の第3のビールに比べプリン体を85％、糖質を70％カットした新製品「オフ」を2009年2月24日に発売すると発表した。低価格の第3のビールは消費者の節約志向で需要が伸びていることから同分野を拡充する。これまでの商品でも含有量を削減していた糖質のほか、痛風や結石の原因となるとされるプリン体も減らすことで健康に配慮する30―40代に売り込む。

　アルコール度数は3.5％以上4.5％未満。350ミリリットル缶と500ミリリットル缶の2品目を販売する。店頭での想定価格は350ミリ缶が140 円前後、500ミリ缶が200円前後で、09年末までに700万ケース（1ケースは633ミリリットル入り大瓶で20本）の販売を目指す。(18:48)

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ＮＡＴＯとの協力拡大へ　政府、旧ソ連圏の兵器廃棄に資金

　政府が北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）との協力拡大に動いている。ＮＡＴＯが旧ソ連・東欧諸国で進める兵器の廃棄作業やアフガニスタンの武器管理体制の整備に資金を供与。アフガンの治安維持活動を主導するＮＡＴＯとのパイプを強め、将来的なアフガン復興支援への布石を打つ狙いもありそうだ。

　ＮＡＴＯとの連携は麻生太郎首相の持論でもある。外相だった2006年5月、日本の閣僚として初めてブリュッセルのＮＡＴＯ理事会で演説し、対話の強化に乗り出した。(11:38)

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雇用機構、公益法人化し存続案　行革相が近く調整

　厚生労働省所管の独立行政法人雇用・能力開発機構の新たな組織改革案が25日、明らかになった。独法形態は廃止するが、公益法人に衣替えして職業訓練業務などを存続。新法人の理事会に中小企業庁長官や中小企業関係団体の代表らを送り込み、運営に直接関与できるようにする。甘利明行政改革担当相が検討しており、近く舛添要一厚労相と調整に入る。

　存続案は同機構が運営する「私のしごと館」（京都府）の廃止方針は維持するなど業務の大幅なスリム化が前提。行政支出の無駄遣いを最終的にどこまで排除できるかが焦点だ。(07:01)

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オウム真理教：破産手続きが終結　被害者配当総額１５億円

　オウム真理教の破産手続きで、最後の債権者集会が２６日、東京地裁（佐村浩之裁判長）で開かれた。元日本弁護士連合会会長で破産管財人の阿部三郎弁護士（８２）は、被害者への配当総額が約１５億４２７０万円であることを報告した。債務総額（約３８億円）に占める配当率は４０．３９％。これで９６年３月に始まった破産手続きは終了した。

　１７回目となる集会で阿部管財人が、６月に実施された最終配当が約７８６８万円だったことを報告。裁判所による救済手続きの終結を伝えた。

　配当総額に被害者救済法（６月成立）に基づき国から支払う給付金約８億円を合わせても、約１５億円の被害が残る。今後は、裁判手続きとは別に被害者以外の債権者から債権を譲り受け配当を進めている「オウム真理教犯罪被害者支援機構」（理事長・宇都宮健児弁護士）が救済業務を行う。【銭場裕司】
　◇管財人奮闘１２年、「救済法」を実現

　被害者への配当は約４割にとどまったが、被害者救済法の成立にこぎ着けた。「実績を残すことができ管財人冥利に尽きる」。１２年８カ月に及ぶ破産手続きを終えた阿部三郎弁護士は笑顔を見せた。

　相手は前例のない事件を起こした教団。身に危険が及ぶ可能性もあったが「被害者救済に、あらゆる努力を尽くす」との思いで奔走してきた。

　手続きが異例の長期に及んだのは、配当をできる限り高めようと手を尽くしたためだった。国に債権を放棄させたり、市民向けのバザーを開き、教団に残っていたのこぎりや金づち、生活用品などを売却したこともある。

　債権回収に限界が見えた昨秋からは「被害回復はまだ道半ば」と法整備の必要性を訴え救済法を実現した。集会後の会見では地下鉄サリン事件被害者遺族の高橋シズヱさん（６１）から「感謝をこめて」と刻まれた楯を贈られ、「光栄です」とほっとした表情を見せた。今後も被害者支援機構メンバーとして救済を手伝うという。【銭場裕司】

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オリエンタル白石：会社更正法の適用申請　負債６０５億円

　東証１部上場の建設業中堅、オリエンタル白石は２６日、東京地裁に会社更生法の適用を申請し、受理されたと発表した。負債総額は６０５億円。資材価格の高騰や金融危機に伴う景気後退に加え、金融機関の融資姿勢の厳格化で資金繰りに行き詰まった。帝国データバンクによると、今年の上場企業の倒産は３０社に達し（上場廃止後を含む）、０２年の２９社を抜いて年間件数の戦後最多を更新した。

　オリエンタル白石の前身であるオリエンタル建設は１９５２年創業で、コンクリート橋建設を得意としていた。０８年９月中間連結決算では１８００万円の最終黒字を計上し、通期で４年ぶりに黒字転換する見通しだった。

　しかし、「建設業や不動産業に対する金融機関の評価が低い」（オリエンタル白石）ため、今月末に必要とされた運転資金の一部について金融機関が新規借り入れや借り換えを拒否。筆頭株主である太平洋セメントからの支援も得られなかった。

　東京証券取引所は１２月２７日付で同社株を上場廃止する。【太田圭介】

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財政審：「埋蔵金」流用容認　健全化路線の後退象徴
財政審の建議を西室泰三会長（左）から手渡される中川財務相＝東京・霞が関の財務省で２００８年１１月２６日午後４時７分、塩入正夫撮影
財政審の建議を西室泰三会長（左）から手渡される中川財務相＝東京・霞が関の財務省で２００８年１１月２６日午後４時７分、塩入正夫撮影

　財政制度等審議会（財務相の諮問機関、西室泰三会長）は２６日、０９年度予算編成に向けた建議（意見書）を中川昭一財務・金融担当相に提出した。世界的な経済・金融の混乱を理由に政府の追加経済対策を追認した上で、これまで慎重だった特別会計の積立金（埋蔵金）の歳出財源への流用も「臨時・特例的措置」と容認。国と地方を合わせた基礎的財政収支（プライマリーバランス）を１１年度に黒字化する政府目標についても従来の「堅持すべきだ」との表現が消え、事実上、努力目標と位置付けるなど、政府の財政健全化路線の後退を象徴する内容となった。

　西室会長は２６日夕の会見で「最も大事なのは経済が沈むのを食い止めること。財政審としては極めて異例だが、経済対策、積立金流用を認めざるを得なかった」と話した。

　建議は、高齢化で膨らむ社会保障の安定財源確保についても「政府は『消費税が社会保障財源の中核』との０７年の政府税制調査会の答申に沿って速やかに対応すべきだ」とするにとどまり「消費税を含む税制の抜本的改革の早期実現」を求めた従来の姿勢から大きくトーンダウン。政府・与党が年末までに策定する税制改革の「中期プログラム」に対しては「内容が絵に描いた餅にならないように」とクギを刺したが、具体像には触れず、中期の財政再建の取り組みも事実上、政治判断に委ねた。０９年度予算編成の焦点となっている社会保障費の自然増２２００億円の圧縮方針の継続は求めたが、道路特定財源の一般財源化のあり方でも踏み込み不足が目立った。【清水憲司】
　◇財政審建議の骨子

＜総論＞

・国際金融情勢は「１００年に１度」の大混乱

・追加経済対策に伴う大規模な財政支出は経済大混乱時の緊急避難措置

・特別会計の積立金の歳出財源への活用は臨時、特例措置と認識

・１１年度の基礎的財政収支黒字化の目標達成への取り組みを怠ってはならない

・「消費税は社会保障財源の中核」との０７年政府税調答申に沿って速やかに対応すべきだ

＜０９年度予算編成に向けた各論＞

・雇用保険の国庫負担削減などで社会保障費の自然増２２００億円圧縮に努力

・公共事業予算の規模を抑制、前年度比３％削減の目標達成を図るべきだ

・教職員定数純減の政府方針を順守、教員の過剰な待遇の見直し

・中小企業の資金繰り支援制度の充実

・経済活性化を理由に地方の歳出膨張圧力が強いが、歳出改革努力を継続すべきだ

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日産ディーゼル：直販１１社を１社に統合へ

　日産ディーゼル工業は２６日、国内の直営販売会社１１社を０９年１１月１日付で１社に経営統合させると発表した。低迷する国内販売をてこ入れする狙い。

　統合で発足する販売会社は「日産ディーゼルトラックス」（東京都江東区）で、社員数約４１００人。地元企業に販売を任せている群馬県などを除く４２都府県と北海道の一部の販売店計１５２店を統括する。統合に合わせて管理部門をスリム化し、販売現場に多くの人員を配置する予定。一部の店は車体整備専門の拠点などに改装する。

　日野自動車も２６日、直営販売会社「茨城日野自動車」（茨城県茨城町）の全株式を２８日付で地元資本が経営するトヨタ自動車系販売会社「茨城トヨタ自動車」（水戸市）に売却すると発表した。売却額は約１１億円。【宮島寛】

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ダイオキシン：地下水から環境基準の２５倍　大日精化興業

　着色剤製造の大日精化興業（本社・東京都中央区）と東京都は２６日、同社の東京製造事業所（足立区）の地下水から環境基準の２５倍のダイオキシンが検出された、と発表した。都と足立区は「周辺へダイオキシンが染み出している可能性がある」として、同社を中心とした半径１キロの範囲で確認されている１８の民間の井戸の検査を始めた。

　都は「飲料として利用しない限り健康被害はない」としており、現在までに健康被害は確認されていない。周辺の井戸は、届け出によると飲料用ではなく風呂水などの利用となっている。

　同社によると、今年２月、地表から深さ２２～２７メートルの地点で地下水１リットルあたり２５ピコグラムのダイオキシンが確認された。「６２～６９年の間に顔料製造で使っていたトリクロロベンゼンが原因とみられる」としている。同社は今後、地下水浄化処理を実施するという。【江畑佳明】

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海賊逮捕へ“法の後ろ盾”整備　英国「軍艦が摘発」「自国で裁く」 (1/2ページ)
2008.11.26 22:47

　【ロンドン＝木村正人】アフリカ・ソマリア周辺海域で横行する海賊を取り締まるため、英政府は英軍艦が公海上でも警察権を行使できるよう海運法を改正する手続きを進めていることが、英海事筋の話で２６日分かった。海賊を逮捕して自国などの法廷で裁きにかけるのが狙い。欧州ではフランスを除き国内法が未整備で、海賊を野放しにする一因になっていた。欧州連合（ＥＵ）も英国方式を参考に海賊摘発策の検討を始めた。

　海運法改正案は１２月３日の女王演説で発表される。

　国連の国際海事機関（ＩＭＯ）によると、１９８４年以降、ソマリア周辺海域で約４４０件の海賊事件が発生、３５隻以上が拿捕（だほ）され、船員ら６００人以上が捕らえられた。現在も１４隻、２５カ国の約２８０人がソマリアに抑留されている。

　北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）やＥＵ加盟国は海賊対策として、アラビア半島とソマリア間のアデン湾に軍艦４～７隻を派遣、船舶の安全航行を確保する５００マイル（９２６キロ）の“海廊”を設けている。

　国連海洋法条約は締約国に海賊の取り締まりを認めているが、警察権を持たない軍艦が公海上で海賊を逮捕しても、どの国で裁判を受けさせるのか国内法が未整備の国が多かった。