Freezing of assets spurs U.K. spat with Isle of Man

6 November 2008 - The Wall Street Journal
Freezing of assets spurs U.K. spat with Isle of Man

The credit crunch has raised tensions between the U.K. and the Isle of Man, as the offshore tax haven in the Irish Sea tries to recover assets frozen amid the nationalization of Icelandic banks.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling called Monday for a review of relations with the Isle of Man. The island is a self-governing U.K. crown dependency but is represented by the U.K. on the world stage.

It has clashed with the U.K. over the latter's decision to freeze the assets of Icelandic banks, including the Isle of Man branch of nationalized Icelandic lender Kaupthing Bank.

"Alistair Darling's comments were most unfortunate, to say the least," Isle of Man Chief Minister Tony Brown said in a statement. "He did not seem to be aware that the relationship between the United Kingdom and the Isle of Man has already been reviewed, and that an agreement reinforcing that relationship was signed . . . in May last year."

- By Laurence Norman

--------------------------
Sunday, 9th November 2008

06 November 2008
By ADRIAN DARBYSHIRE

WHAT is the UK's hidden agenda for the Isle of Man?

Anger and confusion have greeted 'unfortunate and ill-informed' comments by UK Chancellor Alistair Darling, who told a Commons select committee that there was a need for a 'long, hard look' at the UK's relationship with the Isle of Man, describing us dismissively as a 'tax haven sitting in the Irish Sea'.

Fears of a hardening attitude towards the Island from our bigger neighbour have been prompted by a series of unwelcome moves by the UK Government in recent weeks.

At the beginning of October, it announced it will scrap our reciprocal health agreement, leading to Island residents potentially facing hefty hospital bills in future when visiting the UK.

Later the same month, the use of anti-terror legislation by the Gordon Brown administration against Icelandic banks ultimately sparked the collapse of the Island's Kaupthing bank.

Mr Darling's comments to the Treasury Select Committee were variously condemned by government ministers as 'astonishing', 'unprecedented' and 'ill-informed'.

UK Treasury moved quickly to deny Mr Darling was considering a review of the constitutional relationship with the Crown Dependencies.

In a statement aimed at clarifying the position, a UK Treasury spokesman said it was 'vital that in these times of global economic turbulence that we make sure the financial regulatory framework between the UK and the Crown Dependencies is appropriate'.

Chief Minister Tony Brown responded: 'The Isle of Man Government is seeking clarification of the UK's position following Mr Darling's comments.

'As far as financial regulation is concerned, the Isle of Man meets the highest international standards, and the UK Government is aware of that.'

Douglas North MHK John Houghton said: 'There does appear to be some form of conspiracy building up against us. It doesn't help when Britain's most senior politician makes ill-informed comments about how we operate and how we're regulated. I think he's being badly advised.'

Fellow Douglas North MHK Bill Henderson said he saw the comments as a 'veiled threat'.

Treasury Minister Allan Bell said the UK was looking for a scapegoat for its own financial ills, adding: 'Whether there is a wider agenda – well the situation is so serious that to speculate does not help at all.'

Trades Union Council president Bernard Moffatt said the UK Chancellor had by his comments 'kicked every hard-working family in the Island in the teeth' – and he urged the unions to drop paying their political levies to the UK Labour Party.

He said: 'This is an act of hypocrisy on the part of Alistair Darling who has attacked the working people of the Island. He and his party have benefited from trade union members through their political levies.

'I personally believe this money should not be exported to people who have let us down terribly.

'I've not had any illusions about the UK Labour Party. They have a mean streak and have always had it in for the Isle of Man. They've attacked us at every turn. They've an idea that everybody here has millions in the bank and is knocking back pink gin.

'Their very negative image of the Island has now crystallised into these ill advised comments by Alistair Darling. The Chancellor is scapegoating the Isle of Man to deflect attention from himself.'

Mr Moffatt, a Manx nationalist, said we should now look at cutting our links with the UK and join Europe.

'Do we want to be part of the UK or part of a bigger club?' he asked.

-----------------------------
Zero Rate World May Lie Ahead as King, Trichet Cut (Update4)

By Simon Kennedy and Craig Torres
Enlarge Image/Details

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The age of free money may be at hand.

As major central banks slash interest rates with unexpected speed, benchmark borrowing costs are now below core inflation for the first time since the early 1980s, and policy makers are signaling they will go deeper.

Yesterday's cuts by the Bank of England and European Central Bank, which came with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan on the cusp of zero rates, are a bid to shock life back into their recessionary economies and strained money markets. It may be an uphill battle as consumers and businesses show greater interest in saving than spending, and banks hoard capital rather than lend it.

``It's the race to zero,'' said Stewart Robertson, an economist at Aviva Investors Ltd. in London, which manages about $230 billion. ``There's no obstacle to more rate cuts.''

The U.K. central bank led by Governor Mervyn King yesterday axed its benchmark rate to 3 percent, the lowest level since 1955. The reduction of 1.5 percentage points was the biggest in 16 years. The ECB followed with its second half-point cut in a month, to 3.25 percent, and President Jean-Claude Trichet declined to rule out further moves south.

The action in Europe, which extended to reductions in the Czech Republic, Switzerland and Denmark, followed decisions last week by the Fed to drop its key rate to 1 percent, matching the lowest in a half-century, and the Bank of Japan to cut to 0.3 percent in its first paring in seven years. The central bank of South Korea today cut its benchmark for a third time in a month.

Harsher Blows

Monetary policy is being eased because the 15-month credit crisis is inflicting harsher blows to growth and inflation than central bankers anticipated just two months ago. Yesterday the International Monetary Fund cut its month-old forecast for next year's global expansion to 2.2 percent from 3 percent, and predicted the first contraction in advanced economies since it was created in 1945. It estimated prices would rise just 1.4 percent in rich nations, less than half of this year's pace.

The conundrum for central banks is their rate cuts may still not be packing a punch, even on top of record injections of cash and a willingness to accept lower-rated collateral for their loans.

One reason: credit markets remain fragile, indicating financial institutions are still conserving cash after recording losses and writedowns of about $691 billion. The London interbank offered rate for three-month loans fell to 2.29 percent today from 4.82 percent on Oct. 10. The record drop still leaves Libor 129 basis points above the Fed's benchmark, compared with an average of 22 basis points in the five years before the global credit crisis began in August 2007.

Problems `Severe'

``The problems in money markets are still quite severe,'' said Dario Perkins, an economist at ABN Amro Holding NV in London. ``Market rates are above where central banks have their rates, and that's alarming them.''

Credit standards for loans to companies tightened ``significantly'' in the third quarter and will probably tighten again in the current quarter, the Frankfurt-based ECB said in its quarterly bank lending survey.

At the same time, companies and consumers are retrenching in the face of slowing growth and tighter credit. In the U.S., Cisco Systems Inc., the top maker of networking equipment, is forecasting the first revenue drop in five years because of the financial crisis. Across the Atlantic, Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest steelmaker, this week said diminished demand is forcing it to double production cuts.

Companies Retrenching

Automakers and retailers are among the companies being battered by a collapse in consumer demand. In Japan, Toyota Motor Corp., the world's second-largest, yesterday forecast the biggest drop in profit in at least 18 years. Macy's Inc., Target Corp. and Gap Inc. all posted October sales declines in the U.S.

U.S. payrolls shrank by 240,000 workers last month, the Labor Department said today, taking the two-month decline to the biggest since 2001. The jobless rate rose to 6.5 percent, the highest in 14 years.

Another complication for central banks is that some financial institutions are proving averse to passing on lower rates to borrowers. HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc and HBOS Plc are among U.K. mortgage lenders that have still to decide whether to follow the Bank of England's rate cut by paring their own standard variable rates. In the euro area, banks yesterday deposited a record 297.4 billion euros overnight with the ECB rather than lend it elsewhere.

``We expect the banking sector to make its contribution to restore confidence,'' Trichet said yesterday.

Cautious Banks

The combination of cautious banks and reluctant spenders is forcing central banks to cut interest rates below inflation. JPMorgan Chase & Co. calculates borrowing costs adjusted for underlying inflation in developed markets fell below zero last month for the first time since the early 1980s and are still declining.

Central banks are betting that negative real interest rates will induce people to spend rather than save money that is declining in value, economists said. The strategy also aims to jolt investors and banks into seeking higher yields by making riskier long-term loans.

``It's clear you need to have interest rates that are lower than inflation going forward,'' said Jan Amrit Poser, chief economist at Bank Sarasin in Zurich. ``Central banks are rushing to get interest rates down.''

`Too Early'

Still, it's ``far too early'' to talk about zero interest rates throughout the industrial world, given inflation expectations remain positive, says Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London.

``People should be wary of rushing to shift the debate from inflation to deflation,'' he said.

Rapid rate cuts are intended to avoid the fate of Japan, which endured a decade-long slump after its asset bubble burst in 1990 in part because its central bank was ``initially too timid and too slow to react,'' economists at Deutsche Bank AG said in a report yesterday.

As rates fall further, central banks will have to consider less conventional steps to cushion their economies. Among them: making a public commitment to keep rates low, and lowering long- term borrowing by pumping large amounts of cash into banks with direct purchases of government securities.

The debate over what comes next could begin at the Fed as soon as Dec. 16, when policy makers next meet amid expectations for another quarter-point cut.

``We've got a global deflationary environment now and central banks will have to respond,'' said Stuart Thomson, who helps oversee $46 billion in bonds at Resolution Investment Management.

-------------------------------
異業種からの参入続々だが…外国為替証拠金取引（ＦＸ）業界に迫る大量淘汰の足音(1) - 08/11/10 | 07:00


　世界的な金融危機を反映して乱高下する為替相場。これを受けて“活況”を呈しているのが外国為替証拠金取引（ＦＸ）だ。しかし売買高急増の裏で、ＦＸ業界には淘汰・再編の荒波が迫りつつある。

　「１０月の当社のＦＸ取引金額は、月間ベースで過去最高」。カブドットコム証券の雨宮猛常務執行役は打ち明ける。急激な円高ドル安進行を逆手に取り、相場反転狙いで一獲千金をもくろむ「逆張り」の取引が増加。為替差損が一定額以上に膨らんだ場合、ＦＸ会社が投資家の代わりに強制手仕舞い（反対売買）して損失を確定する「自動ロスカット」が相次いだのも原因とみられる。

　ＦＸは、個人向けの外貨売買金融商品（差金決済）。証拠金に対し取引額の倍率「レバレッジ」を高めれば、少ない元手でも多額の利益を得られる「ハイリスク・ハイリターン」型の金融商品だ。株と違い、為替の値動きを見て投資するわかりやすさも人気を呼び、急成長を遂げた。

　２００８年３月期の口座数は１２３万件と前年比約９２％増。０９年３月期には１７９万口座に達する見込みだ（矢野経済研究所調べ）。日銀の「本邦の外為証拠金取引の最近の動向」によると、取引量は０８年１～３月期に２３０兆円と２年前の４・６倍に膨らんだ。市場拡大に伴い、ＦＸ会社の競争も激化している。消耗戦で体力をすり減らし、経営に行き詰まるケースも少なくない。

　１０月下旬、トレイダーズＦＸが１２月１日で廃業すると発表した。「業界最高水準」のサービスを標榜し、７月に新規参入してからわずか３カ月後のことだった。

　同社は、大証ヘラクレス上場のトレイダーズホールディングスの全額出資子会社。トレイダーズＨＤはグループの証券子会社を通じてＦＸを展開しており、それとは別に新サービスを手掛ける別働隊として、トレイダーズＦＸを立ち上げた。

　トレイダーズＦＸは、顧客の取引コストを徹底的に下げる戦略を採った。インターネット取引の手数料は“業界標準”に倣って無料。レバレッジは最高４００倍に設定した。買値と売値の価格差である「スプレッド」も最低でゼロにした。スプレッドはＦＸ会社の実質的な手数料に相当。つまり取引手数料を無料化し、スプレッドもゼロに設定すれば「本来は絶対儲からない」（業界関係者）。無理をしても競合から顧客を奪う作戦だった。

　だが、すぐにつまずいた。ＦＸ会社は通常、顧客から受けた注文を「インターバンク」市場で執行する。「カバー取引」と呼ばれる売買だ。たとえば、ドル売り注文に応じたＦＸ会社はドルの買い持ちになるため、ドル安になると為替差損を被る。この場合、「カバー先」と呼ばれる金融機関へドル売り注文を出せば、ドル安のヘッジができる。

　トレイダーズＦＸはコスト度外視で顧客取り込みに走った結果、「予想以上の注文が殺到したが、カバー先の金融機関との取引がうまくいかず多額の為替差損を抱えた」（同社関係者）。大量の顧客注文の処理に手間取り、価格変動リスクを防ぎきれなかったと推測される。

証拠金の管理状況を金融庁が一斉調査

　同社のカバー先に破綻した米リーマン・ブラザースが名を連ねていたことも命取りとなった。顧客の証拠金をリーマンに預託しており、破綻に伴って貸し倒れとなったのだ。

　ＦＸでも表面化し始めたカウンターパーティリスク（取引相手の信用リスク）。金融庁も実態把握へと乗り出している。

　１０月中旬、金融庁は全国のＦＸ会社約１３０社を対象に一斉調査を実施した。顧客から預かった証拠金の管理状況を調べるのが目的だ。

　ＦＸ会社は顧客から預かった証拠金を、会社自体の財産と分けて管理しなければならないことが法令で定められている。信託銀行で管理する「信託保全」が比較的多いようだが、「カバー先」への預託も認められている。

　だが、今回の調査結果を受けて、金融庁はルール見直しを検討し始めたようだ。具体的にはカバー先への預託を禁止し、信託保全へ一本化するなどの案が浮上している。仮に実現すれば、カバー先に対する証拠金には自己資金を充当せざるをえないが、「資金調達できる会社は多くない」（業界関係者）のが現状。事業縮小や廃業を余儀なくされるケースが続出する可能性もある。金融庁担当者は「投資者保護の観点から適切に判断したい」と話す。

　金融庁の調べでは、０７年１２月時点でカバー先へ預託した証拠金を自社の資産と同じ口座で管理しているＦＸ会社が４１％に達する。０７年に破綻したＦＸ会社２社は、いずれも顧客資産を明確に分別管理していなかった。「顧客と自社の資産を明確に分けて管理していれば問題ないが、その線引きがあいまいな例も少なくない」（金融庁担当者）と問題視する。

　矢野経済研究所の白倉和弘上級研究員は「今後は経営体力の劣る業者が退場を迫られるだろう」と指摘。業界でも「遅かれ早かれ５～１０社まで寡占化するのでは」（ＦＸプライムの三浦俊一社長）との声もある。市場が拡大する一方で、業者の淘汰は避けられそうにない。

--------------------------------
Bear market: Time to buy?

By John Authers

Published: November 9 2008 20:21 | Last updated: November 9 2008 20:21

American Union bank

As world stock markets plunged last month, investors were able to take heart from the latest words of Warren Buffett: he announced he was buying stocks. “A simple rule dictates my buying: be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,” proclaimed the man known as the Sage of Omaha. “And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors.”

Nobody could disagree. But the extreme fear that was in evidence did not guarantee that stocks had hit a bottom. Mr Buffett acknowledged as much in his column for The New York Times and advised investors not even to try to time the market. His point was that stocks were cheap, so people should not take the risk of waiting.

“I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month – or a year – from now,” he wrote. “What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.”

But is there a way of telling when equities might have hit bottom? Certainly, when fear overcomes greed to this extent, attempts to assess a stock’s value according to fundamental measures go out of the window. Instead, all people have to go on is history. Yet precedents as extreme as last month’s “Black October” are few. Only four periods in the past 100 years (two of them during the 1930s) match the 46 per cent slide since the Standard & Poor’s 500, the world’s most widely tracked index, reached an all-time high in October last year.

In the weeks since its latest extreme sell-off, the S&P regained as much as 20 per cent at one point but continues to trade in a volatile range. Almost all other markets worldwide have displayed similar patterns, shedding even more than the US and rebounding more before lapsing into a range.

Nobody thinks that anything like normality has been restored; the weeks since then have included the biggest crash in history for the foreign exchange market and further acute difficulties for the credit market. Historical pointers look ominous too: after the crash of 1929, anybody buying when the market started to stabilise would have lost more than three-quarters of their money over the next two years.

But some are beginning to set aside such fears. “For an unparalleled 20 years, global equities, especially US equities, have been overpriced,” Jeremy Grantham, founder of the Grantham Mayo Otterloo fund management group in Boston and for years a voice that counselled caution, wrote late last month. “Now, finally, they are cheap and likely to get cheaper. Likely, I believe, to set up a once-in-a-lifetime investing opportunity (or maybe twice in a long career).”

He is only starting to buy, however, and has not deployed all the cash he has available. Buying now makes sense for those truly in it for the long term; the bottom may still be ahead.


When markets experience dislocations as extreme as Black October, as Mr Buffett implies, what is important is the mass psychology reflected in the market’s moves.

Indeed, there are ways to assess investor psychology. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Vix index, for instance, measures “anxiety” from how much investors in options are prepared to pay to protect against future falls in the S&P 500. This measure was not around during previous great bear markets but the spike in volatility in recent years took it to all-time highs. When sentiment becomes this extreme, it is fair to hope that stocks have become too cheap, creating bargains once confidence returns.

Looking instead at realised volatility, or the extent to which stocks vary on a monthly basis, the S&P last month was as volatile as it had been at any time since 1929, except October 1987. All previous spikes in volatility returned swiftly to calm.

Yet another measure comes from US Treasury bills, short-term loans to the US government that are arguably the safest investments in existence. When T-bill yields fall, investors are prepared to pay more for that safety. At the worst of the recent panic, T-bill yields reached 0.02 per cent, their lowest since 1940. They have barely recovered. Again, such an extreme desire for security might imply that the market cannot fall much further and is ready to swing in the other direction.

A further measure, comparing the yields available on the highest-rated – triple-A – bonds with bonds of only slightly lower quality once again shows the desire for safety leaping to extremes not seen since the 1930s.

A popular model – although academics suggest that it is flawed – compares the yields on stocks to the yields on bonds. The model does have a kernel of common sense. When bond yields are very low, as they are now, that could signal that it makes sense to pay more for stocks, in search of a higher return.

There is therefore a respectable case to be made that in the past few weeks fear has conquered greed to an extent that goes beyond the rational. The return of stability in due course creates the opportunity for a big rally. But this may merely be a “bear market rally”. In the past two weeks, the S&P both staged its 20 per cent revival and then gave up half of it. That is not surprising – the bear market after 1929 was punctuated by several rallies of 20 per cent or more.

A market bottom cannot hold if stocks remain too expensive, so long-term measures of valuation have proved to be great indicators of bear market tops and bottoms. One suggested in the 1930s by Benjamin Graham, an investment theorist, looks at cyclical price/earnings ratios, where the price of a stock is compared with the average of the earnings per share it has produced over the previous 10 years. This controls for the effect of the profit cycle, which otherwise would mean that year-by-year multiples tended to be higher when profits were at the low point of the cycle and lower when profits were high.

This measure has been revived by Yale University’s Robert Shiller, who gained fame for publishing Irrational Exuberance, in which he warned that stocks were badly overvalued, shortly before the internet bubble burst in 2000. Enhancing that fame in recent years have been his indices showing that another bubble, in US housing, was about to burst. Shiller p/e multiples reached their greatest extremes in 1929 and 2000, two market tops that were followed by bear markets. In October 1987 they peaked at a much lower level, giving an important clue that the market break of that year would prove to be less significant. Further, the lows have coincided with long-term market bottoms. There is also a tendency to revert to the mean over long periods.

Valuation of the US stock market

Significantly, the cyclical p/e now suggests that stocks are slightly cheaper than their long-term average, for the first time since 1991. That in turn implies that those who can afford to wait a number of years for a pay-off should start to feed money into the stock market.

A variation on this theme is to look at very long-running trends. There are various ways of doing this, but Mr Grantham’s simple model holds that over time, stocks rise by inflation plus 2 per cent. This produces an upward trend line, to which stocks will eventually revert. On this basis, stocks have recently snapped back to fair value, having been wildly overpriced. As with the cyclical p/e model, this suggests that the stock market had been overvalued since 1991.

Again this is encouraging, but the news has to come with the caveat that markets are prone to overshoot and become too cheap after prolonged periods when they have been too expensive. Hence, both these measures are consistent with stocks falling much lower before they find a bottom, even though they are currently fairly priced.

A further measure that has signalled market tops and bottoms over the years is known as q. This refers to the ratio of the value of a company to its net worth – the value of the equity on its balance sheet. Again, over time, the market value of a company will tend to converge on this measure. Again, after being overvalued for more than a decade, stocks now appear to be at about fair value according to q.


Jim WinsletThe final, critical element in the equation concerns the future. How bad will this recession be? Usually, market bottoms are related to recessions, with markets generally beginning to recover when the economy is on the floor and some months before a broader upturn.

For those who believe this recession will end in the early months of next year, therefore, there appears to be an argument to buy stocks now, as they already implicitly discount a long and severe recession. Tim Bond, of Barclays Capital, suggests that equities might present the “buying opportunity of a generation”. According to Barclays’ model of implied economic forecasts from credit spreads, the market is discounting as much as a 15 per cent decline in real gross domestic product for the US next year. By way of comparison, the average annualised GDP contraction during the Depression was 14.1 per cent and the worst single year, 1932, saw a contraction of 23 per cent.

If the final scenario is any better than this – with the political response to this recession very different as lessons of the 1930s have been learnt – stocks could be ready to rise. But Albert Edwards, a strongly bearish equity analyst at Société Générale in London, suggests that this is a mistake. “Previously, equity rallies in the depth of recessions were driven not by predictive power but by expanding multiples as interest rates and bond yields collapsed. Bad economic news was good news for valuations.”

This time, he suggests, the world is dealing with a historic overhang of debt. Interest rates have already been slashed without turning round either the market or the economy. Rather than correlating with bonds, therefore, equities are more likely to become correlated with economic growth. That in turn means stocks might not rally ahead of an economic recovery.

A confident attempt to call a bottom to the market requires, in any event, a belief that the economy will be rebounding soon. Yet there is a flip side to that. “It is typical for great bubbles to overrun badly. But usually we don’t invest our money on estimated likely overruns, but instead filter our money in slowly and hope to get lucky,” says Mr Grantham.

“After all, if stocks are attractive and you don’t buy and they run away, you don’t just look like an idiot, you are an idiot.”


DOWN TIME: 1929-32

S&P 500 index

The mother of all bear markets started in 1929, lasted at least until 1932 and coincided with the onset of the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 86 per cent.

Although many market scholars would count it as a separate incident, a further drop in equities began in 1937. The S&P endured a new fall of 54.5 per cent in the space of a year, though ending above its high from 1932. It took 25 years to get back to the 1929 peak.

The precedent is alarming: at this point in the 1929-32 bear market, stocks had another 75 per cent to fall before hitting bottom.


OILY SLIDE: 1973-76

1973-1976

The other era that most closely compares is the bear market that began in 1973, coinciding with the oil price spike and the beginning of the great “stagflationary” cycle of the 1970s. The S&P fell 47.8 per cent.

At its worst so far, the 2007-08 sell-off displayed a virtually identical loss of 46.9 per cent – after reaching these depths much more swiftly.

A few months ago, with fears of inflation resurfacing as oil prices surged to unprecedented levels (just as they did, for different reasons, in 1973), this was a very popular parallel. But now, with central banks cutting rates to fight fears of deflation, the comparison looks stretched.


WORST OF DAYS: 1987-90

1987-1990 S&P 500 index

If another example is needed, there is always the Black Monday crash of 1987. But this could be a red herring. It was the worst single day in stock market history, but the plunge came when the market had grown very frothy, at a time when the economy was reasonably strong, and there was a swift rebound.

The economic backdrop this time is far more menacing and the market has now fallen far more from top to bottom. Comparisons with 1987 are therefore wishful thinking.





FALSE BOTTOM? 2000-03

2000-2003

After the “internet bust” of 2000, the S&P fell 49.1 per cent. This is fresh in the mind but its lessons are questionable. It started with stocks more overvalued than ever before – and the sell-off stopped before a return to normal valuations.

But was the bottom during the WorldCom scandal of 2002 a false one? On one theory, the rebound came only because of excessive cuts in interest rates that stoked the credit bubble. That implies that this latest sell-off can end only once it has tested whether 2002 was a false bottom – meaning stocks need to fall significantly from last month’s low. If they breach that, parallels with the 1930s look all the more disquieting.

---------------------------------
Tax War Looms Amid More Gloom

1 hour 18 mins ago
SkyNews Sky News

* Print Story

Gordon Brown and David Cameron are expected to go to war over tax cuts this week as yet more bad news emerges on the state of the economy. Skip related content
Related content

* Fitch downgrades ratings outlook on SKorea
* France, Australia ministers in talks on financial crisis
* US govt near deal to review AIG rescue package: report
* Related Hot Topic: Financial Crisis

Have your say: Financial Crisis

The Prime Minister has hinted tax reductions could be on the way for families struggling to pay their bills.

And tomorrow, the Conservatives will pre-empt the Government's pre-budget report by outlining their own bid to persuade us they can be trusted with the economy.

Experts say that despite the big borrowing involved, tax must be reduced.

Chancellor Alistair Darling should consider a temporary cut in VAT from 17.5% to 12%, according to the the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

A reduction until the end of 2009 would cost £24bn but the net impact would be much less - possibly even nothing - if it stopped recession from intensifying, the research group claimed.

Meanwhile, research from the high street says consumer confidence has fallen to a new low as people worry whether they will be in work by next year.

A report by the British Retail Consortium says 84% of people think Britain is already in a recession.

Only 14% think the country will get out of it within a year.

And job creation is at a "virtual standstill", according to one report.

A survey of over 700 employers showed that the balance between the proportion expecting to recruit staff in the next three months and those lining up to make redundancies has plunged from plus 41 a year ago to just plus two.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said it was the lowest figure since it launched its labour market outlook survey over four years ago.

A separate report by the CBI shows a huge fall in jobs at small to medium sized manufacturers, with employment prospects expected to get worse in the next few months.

CIPD chief economist John Philpott, says: "We are now at the start of a period of contraction, with jobs being lost, new jobs hard to come by and, as this week's official statistics are set to confirm, unemployment on an ever sharper upward rise."

----------------------------
GM says East Europe car boom could be over

Saturday, November 8 03:26 pm
Reuters

* Print Story

A downturn in car demand is bound to spill over into eastern Europe which has been a stronger growth area than western European, GM Europe President Carl-Peter Forster said in a trade press interview. Skip related content
Price by Yahoo! Finance
PriceStock prices Company name Last price Percentage change

"This area used to be a growth area, but not any more," Forster said in an abstract of an interview which will run in full length on November 10 in Automotive News Europe.

"I would not expect them to be able to decouple themselves from a more difficult situation in Europe," he said.

The publication said a slowdown was expected in eastern Europe next year due to the tightening of available credits, the collapsing consumer confidence, and the increase used car imports from western Europe.

Europe had so far provided a silver lining for many leading U.S. auto suppliers but the slump that started in the U.S. is spreading to other key markets as the global credit crunch rocks consumer confidence.

---------------------------
Fitch downgrades ratings outlook on SKorea

20 mins ago
AFP

* Print Story

An international credit assessor said Monday it has downgraded its sovereign ratings outlook on South Korea to negative from stable due to the impact of the global financial crisis. Skip related content
Related photos / videos
Fitch downgrades ratings outlook on SKorea Enlarge photo
Related content

* France, Australia ministers in talks on financial crisis
* Tax War Looms Amid More Gloom
* US govt near deal to review AIG rescue package: report
* Related Hot Topic: Financial Crisis

Have your say: Financial Crisis

Fitch Ratings said in a statement that the downgrade follows a review of the sovereign ratings of 17 major investment-grade emerging market economies.

It said the de-leveraging of Korea's banking system "may contribute to an erosion of the sovereign's external credit strengths, especially if it were accompanied by central bank interventions in the currency market to support the exchange rate."

The agency said authorities had responded quickly to banks' problems with comprehensive measures -- including a 30 billion dollar foreign-currency swap facility and a 100 billion dollar guarantee for new foreign borrowing by its banks.

Fitch, which has also downgraded Malaysia 's ranking, estimated potential foreign financing needs in South Korea next year at 211 billion dollars -- a forecast current account deficit plus outflows of net foreign direct investment of 35 billion dollars, plus short-term and liquid foreign liabilities estimated at 176 billion dollars.

However, it said concerns remain moderate given the central bank's foreign exchange reserves of 212.3 billion dollars as of end-October.

The agency also noted the 30 billion dollar swap arrangement with the US Federal Reserve and other arrangements being discussed with China and Japan.

"Even so, the fiscal and foreign exchange cost of funding the 'de-leveraging' of the banking system against the backdrop of a sharp slowdown in the economy and deterioration in bank asset quality could erode Korea's external credit strengths, especially if the (central bank) engages in less targeted foreign exchange intervention," it said.

The central bank has spent billions of dollars in recent months trying to prop up the won, which has been Asia's worst-performing major currency this year.

--------------------------------
Libya to host $5 billion energy hub

Yesterday, 03:44 pm
AFP

* Print Story

Gulf Finance House (GFH) -- a Bahrain-based Islamic investment bank -- on Sunday unveiled plans for a five-billion-dollar energy sector business hub at Sabratha. Skip related content
Related photos / videos
Libya to host $5 billion energy hub Enlarge photo
Related content

* Fitch downgrades ratings outlook on SKorea
* France, Australia ministers in talks on financial crisis
* Tax War Looms Amid More Gloom
* Related Hot Topic: Financial Crisis

Have your say: Financial Crisis
Price by Yahoo! Finance
PriceStock prices Company name Last price Percentage change

Energy City Libya is the latest in a series of projects, which already includes Energy City locations in Qatar, India and Kazakhstan, the bank said.

The six square-kilometre (2.4-square-mile) coastal development will include a data centre and an environmental, renewable energy and regulatory advisory centre, plus a dedicated cluster for oil and gas producers.

Alongside the business components, the city -- 70 kilometres (43 miles) west of Tripoli -- will include homes, shops and leisure facilities, the company said.

GFH chairman Issam Janahi said the project will be 60 percent financed by his bank and 40 percent by the Libyan economic and social development fund, through a joint venture.

Work is expected to start early next year and construction is likely to take three to five years, he said at a news conference.

The first stage, lasting 18 months, will focus on developing infrastructure at a cost of 400 million dollars. "The bank is working on raising more funds," Janahi said.

With approximately 40 billion barrels of oil, Libya has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, in addition to considerable gas resources.

Libya is Africa's third biggest oil producer -- pumping around two million barrels a day (bpd).

Tripoli has been seeking foreign investors, to help it reach a target of three million bpd by 2012, Hamed al-Hadhiri, chairman of the Libyan fund, told the news conference.

--------------------------------
Demand maintains Dubai property growth: Emaar

Yesterday, 03:34 pm
AFP

* Print Story

A top Dubai property development executive said on Sunday that the emirate's booming real estate sector would maintain growth despite the global crisis as demand continued to outstrip supply. Skip related content
Related photos / videos
Demand maintains Dubai property growth: Emaar Enlarge photo
Related content

* Fitch downgrades ratings outlook on SKorea
* France, Australia ministers in talks on financial crisis
* Tax War Looms Amid More Gloom
* Related Hot Topic: Financial Crisis

Have your say: Financial Crisis

"Domestic demand for real estate continues to outstrip supply, and it will be so for several years," Mohammed Alabbar --chairman of real estate giant Emaar -- told participants at a World Economic Forum meeting in Dubai.

"This demand is real, and there is a positive shift now towards an end-user market," he said, in an apparent reference to a reported exit by speculators from the sector which saw a significant overheating in past years.

Alabbar, who is also a member of the Dubai Executive Council, shrugged off claims that Dubai's thriving economy was poised to slow down due to a drop in real estate, stressing that the city-state's economy has other driving sectors.

"For several analysts, the 'Dubai Inc.' story is tied in to its real estate sector. They miss the mountain for the hill," he said.

"The Dubai economy is driven by traditional sectors such as re-exports and trading; tourism and retail; transportation and logistics; manufacturing; the free zones and the business hubs for IT, media, financial services, education and healthcare. These are the sectors that drive real demand," he argued.

He claimed that the impressive growth in real estate was "Dubai's answer to the demand created by these traditional sectors".

Alabbar downplayed the impact of the global credit crunch on Dubai's real estate sector, saying the bulk of the market was equity or cash-driven, with very little mortgage-dependent developments.

"This takes out a lot of risk from the system," he said.

----------------------------
Fitch downgrades four emerging markets

By Neil Dennis

Published: November 10 2008 11:49 | Last updated: November 10 2008 11:49

The threat of global recession prompted ratings agency Fitch to cut its sovereign ratings on four emerging market countries on Monday, including Romania, which was lowered to ”junk” status.

Fitch lowered its long-term foreign-currency ratings on Bulgaria and Kazakhstan to BBB-minus from BBB, while Hungary was cut to BBB from BBB-plus.

Romania, which received a non-investment grade rating two weeks ago from Standard & Poor’s, was cut by two notches to BB-plus from BBB, leaving it with a ”junk” rating at Fitch also.

David Riley, head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch, said: ”The profound shift in the global economic and financial outlook pose significant real economy and policy challenges for emerging markets.”

He added: ”Policymakers in emerging economies have even less scope for policy errors than their counterparts in so-called ’advanced’ countries.”

Romania last month declined help from the International Monetary Fund, attracting criticism of its economic policies and dependence on foreign lenders.

Lars Christensen at Danske Bank said: ”The downgrades are bad news for the entire region and we expect central and eastern European markets to come under further selling pressure this week.

”The markets are especially likely to focus on the countries with large external funding needs: the Baltic states, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.”

Fitch also lowered its outlook on four other emerging markets – South Korea, South Africa, Russia and Mexico.

Emerging market equities, however, got a surprise lift on Monday after China announced its own $586bn fiscal stimulus plan to boost economic growth.

But currencies remained under pressure. Romania’s leu fell 0.7 per cent to 3.7360 lei against the euro, while Hungary’s forint lost 1 per cent against the euro to Ft264.55. South Korea’s won fell 0.4 per cent against the dollar to Won1.327.50.

---------------------------
UK, Sweden join backers of Russia talks

By Tony Barber in Brussels

Published: November 10 2008 10:13 | Last updated: November 10 2008 10:13

The UK and Sweden said on Monday they supported the resumption of talks between the European Union and Russia on a long-term partnership agreement that were suspended after the Kremlin’s invasion and de facto partition of Georgia in August.

In a joint statement, David Miliband and Carl Bildt, the British and Swedish foreign ministers, said the resumption of talks was in the EU’s interests, but added: “We are not returning to business as usual, nor are we turning the page on the conflict in Georgia. The EU will stick to the tough mandate that has been agreed for the negotiations.”

The statement was issued on the sidelines of a meeting in Brussels of EU foreign ministers that was due to prepare the bloc’s position ahead of a summit of EU and Russian leaders on Friday in the French city of Nice. Sweden and the UK have been among the western European countries most critical of Russian policies, but Monday’s joint statement made clear they did not want to be lumped together with more hostile former communist countries in the EU debate on the subject.

The issue has exposed divisions in the 27-nation EU between countries such as Germany and Italy that are keen to restart the talks as soon as possible and others, led by former Soviet bloc states, that say the EU should not be in such a hurry given Russia’s actions in Georgia.

Valdas Adamkus and Lech Kaczynski, the presidents of Lithuania and Poland, issued a statement last Monday saying the time was not ripe to resume the talks with Moscow. Two days later, however, the European Commission published a review of EU-Russian relations that spoke in favour of restarting the talks.

The suspension of the talks was the only concrete measure that the EU took against Russia, after the short August war in Georgia resulted in Moscow’s recognition of the independence of the pro-Russian Georgian enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Germany and Italy argued against tougher measures on the grounds that the EU’s overall political and economic relationship with Moscow, including its dependence on Russian energy supplies, was too important to be sacrificed for Georgia. They held Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s president, partly responsible for the fighting in the first place.

The UK-Swedish statement expressed concern that Russian forces had still not fully withdrawn to positions occupied before the clashes started on August 7, as the EU has demanded.

But it added: “We need and want to work with Russia. Negotiations on the agreement are a pragmatic way of pursuing our interests across a range of important issues, like energy, climate change and trade, as well as deepening the rules-based framework to our relationship.”

---------------------------
Nordic region feels economic chill

By David Ibison in Stockholm

Published: November 9 2008 18:48 | Last updated: November 9 2008 18:48

There has been a whiff of self-satisfaction across the Nordic region for much of the past 12 months as it appeared the worst of the global financial crisis would leave northern European states largely unscathed.

While other countries launched bank rescues, none of the Scandinavian banks appeared to need bailing out. There was no property market boom turning to bust and no looming exposure to noxious financial instruments overseas. Furthermore, both exports and domestic consumption looked relatively sturdy.

But this Nordic exceptionalism has finally given way to the chilly realisation that Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland are not immune to events in the rest of the world and face dramatic slowdowns of their own.

UBS, the bank, last week downgraded forecasts for 2009 economic growth across the region.

It says Sweden’s economy will contract by 0.5 per cent in 2009, compared with a previous forecast for growth of 0.4 per cent. Norway is expected to stagnate at zero per cent growth in 2009, Denmark to shrink by 1.8 per cent and Finland to slow from growth of 2 per cent to 0.6 per cent.

“They have perhaps been a little behind the curve as a result of being too optimistic in their outlook for global growth,” says Sunil Kapadia, economist at UBS.

The sense that the region’s problems are escalating has been heightened by recent events. Multibillion dollar plans have been announced to provide liquidity for Nordic banks.

Swedbank, Sweden’s largest savings bank, said last week that it would make use of its government’s assistance package, with others expected to follow suit.

Carnegie, the Nordic region’s oldest homegrown investment bank, has been forced to go to the Swedish central bank for funds to stave off bankruptcy and is now up for sale.

There have also been sackings in the core manufacturing sector, including household names such as Volvo in Sweden, Bang & Olufsen in Denmark and the big paper makers in Finland, among many others.

October was the worst month for job losses in Sweden in more than 15 years, according to official statistics.

In terms of interest rates, the story is mixed. Denmark has been forced to make two emergency interest rate increases and used up about a fifth of its foreign exchange reserves in October to defend its currency peg to the euro.

Rates in Sweden are 3.75 per cent in Norway 4.75 per cent and both central banks are forecasting accelerated decreases.

In Finland, the least affected of the Nordics, rates are set by the European Central Bank at 3.25 per cent as it is a member of the eurozone.

But, in terms of fiscal policy, the story is more unified. The Nordic countries all run fiscal surpluses, having avoided the temptation common elsewhere in Europe to borrow heavily during the boom, and they have all announced expansionary budgets.

With the situation deteriorating, Denmark this week started redrafting its proposed budget to loosen the fiscal strings further.

Pressure is starting to grow on Norway and Sweden from unions, opposition parties, academics and think-tanks to announce additional spending plans.

Jens Stoltenberg, Norway’s prime minister, has said further spending would be provided if necessary.

In spite of being late to admit that there was going to be a big problem, the monetary and fiscal policy flexibility the Nordic regions are able to utilise provides some comfort to private sector economists that the region’s slowdown should not be too painful.

UBS, for example, forecasts all four economies will be back in positive territory by 2010.

-----------------------------
System popular with steel makers, garden centres and luxury gift groups

By David Oakley, Capital Markets Correspondent

Published: November 10 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 10 2008 02:00

An increasing number and variety of companies are using Islamic finance to raise money for expansion, research and product development, writes David Oakley .

They range from steel manufacturers to garden centres and luxury gift companies, which are often owned by or have Muslim shareholders.

These companies want to operate in a Sharia- compliant way that enables them to avoid paying interest, which is banned under Islamic law.

Thamesteel, a Kent-based steel manufacturer and part of the Saudi Arabian Al Tuwairqi group, used Islamic finance to buy scrap metal.

The Bank of London and the Middle East, the UK's biggest Islamic bank, bought the materials on the steelmaker's behalf and then sold them on at a higher price. This involved no interest payments.

The Peterborough Garden Park, a gardening company, is also using Islamic finance to develop one of its garden centres. The company was attracted by the competitive financing on offer rather than for religious reasons.

Edible Arrangements International, a luxury gift company based in the US, also turned to the BLME to help it raise money for expansion.

The company, which delivers fruit arrangements to customers in the US, has a Muslim owner who wanted to stick to principles of Sharia.

----------------------------
米ＡＩＧ損失２兆４４６８億円　７～９月期　支援総額１５兆円に拡大
2008.11.10 22:28

　【ワシントン＝渡辺浩生】米政府管理のもとで経営再建中の米保険最大手アメリカン・インターナショナル・グループ（ＡＩＧ）が１０日発表した２００８年７～９月期決算は、最終損益が２４４億６８００万ドル（約２兆４４６８億円）の赤字となり、前年同期の３０億ドルの黒字から大幅赤字に転落した。今年９月以降の金融危機の深刻化により損失が拡大した。

　米紙ウォールストリート・ジャーナルによると、政府はＡＩＧに対して支援策を拡大する方針。金融安定化法を使って４００億ドル（約４兆円）を資本注入するなど、支援総額は現在の１２２８億ドルから１５００億ドルに拡大する見込み。実施されれば公的資金による資本注入の対象が、銀行から保険会社に広がる初のケースとなる。

　７～９月期は、不良資産の評価損計上やリストラ経費など金融市場の混乱を受けた関連損失が１３８億ドルに上り、収益を圧迫した。総合保険部門は８億９９００万ドル、金融サービス部門は８３億ドルの赤字をそれぞれ計上した。

　今年に入って９カ月の累積赤字は３７６億３０００万ドルに上ったとしている。

　ＡＩＧは今年９月、資金繰りが急激に悪化し、連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）から緊急融資を受けて公的管理下に入った。しかし、その後も、企業破綻（はたん）や住宅ローン担保証券の焦げ付きリスクを保証するクレジット・デフォルト・スワップ（ＣＤＳ）取引で追加損失が拡大している。

　ウォールストリート・ジャーナルによると、総額１５００億ドルの新支援策のうち、４００億ドルの資本注入のほか、６００億ドルを融資、５００億ドルが政府による不良資産買い取りにあてられるという。

----------------------------
三井造船、アブダビで太陽熱実証プラント受注

　三井造船は10日、コスモ石油とアラブ首長国連邦アブダビ政府系のアブダビ・フューチャー・エナジー・カンパニーから、太陽熱実証プラントを受注したと発表した。受注金額は8億円。アブダビで建設が進む環境モデル都市に建設、2009年末に完成させる。東京工業大学が開発した低コストの太陽熱集光技術を採用し、将来の太陽熱発電プラントの商業化につなげる。

　アブダビ国際空港の隣接地で建設する。東工大の玉浦裕教授が開発した「ビームダウン式」と呼ぶ集光技術を活用、100キロワットの集光能力を持たせる。コスモ石油などは実証プラントで集光性能などを確認、太陽熱を利用した発電プラントの実用化を目指す。(20:01)

---------------------------
露鵬ら検査は不当と提訴 伊勢ノ海理事らに１億円請求

　尿検査で大麻に陽性反応を示し、日本相撲協会から解雇されたロシア出身の兄弟、元幕内露鵬（２８）と元十両白露山（２６）が１０日、「不当な検査の結果で２人を解雇させた」として、協会の「再発防止検討委員会」のメンバー４人に慰謝料計１億円を求め、東京地裁に提訴した。

　４人は、協会理事の伊勢ノ海委員長や、日本アンチ・ドーピング機構専門委員でもある大西祥平委員ら。

　元露鵬らは大麻吸引を否定し、「検査の結果次第で解雇という不利益を受ける可能性を知らせないなど手続きは不当。簡易検査の段階で２人が大麻を使ったように公表し、名誉を傷つけた」と主張している。

　大麻所持容疑での元幕内若ノ鵬逮捕を受け、協会は検討委員会を中心に力士の尿検査を実施。２人に陽性反応が出たとして、９月に解雇した。

　元露鵬らは既に「解雇は不当」として、地位確認を求め提訴。仮処分も申し立てている。

----------------------------
「ずさんな検査で解雇」、元露鵬と元白露山が協会を提訴

2008年11月10日18時57分

　大麻の陽性反応が出て日本相撲協会を解雇された大相撲の元露鵬（２８）と元白露山（２６）が１０日、検査を担当した協会の再発防止検討委員会の４人を相手取り、計１億円の慰謝料を求める訴えを東京地裁に起こした。不当な解雇手続きなどで名誉が傷つけられ、精神的苦痛を負ったと主張している。

　訴えられたのは、委員長の伊勢ノ海理事や、検査を実施した大西祥平・慶大教授ら。

　原告側代理人によると、元露鵬らは（１）ずさんな検査で解雇された（２）簡易検査の段階で大麻を使用したことが明らかのように公表された（３）米ロサンゼルス巡業で元露鵬が大麻使用を認めたような虚偽の事実を作られた、などと主張している。

　日本相撲協会は９月、大麻の陽性反応が出た元露鵬と元白露山を解雇。２人は協会を相手取り、力士としての地位確認などを求め、東京地裁に提訴している。

----------------------------
大相撲：大麻検査巡り協会の防止委員ら提訴　元露鵬ら

　尿検査で大麻の陽性反応が出て日本相撲協会から解雇されたロシア出身の元露鵬（２８）と元白露山（２６）の兄弟が１０日、ずさんな検査で名誉を傷付けられたとして、検査を実施した協会の再発防止検討委員会の委員らを相手取り、計１億円の賠償を求めて東京地裁に提訴した。訴えられたのは、同委員会の伊勢ノ海委員長や大西祥平・慶応大教授ら４人。

　元力士側は「弁明の機会も与えられず、大麻使用が明らかであるように公表され、精神的苦痛を受けた」と主張している。

-----------------------------
元露鵬、白露山が慰謝料１億円請求し提訴

　大麻検査で陽性反応が出たとして日本相撲協会を解雇された元幕内露鵬（２８）、元十両白露山（２６）が１０日、協会の再発防止検討委員会のメンバー４人を相手取り、合計１億円の慰謝料を請求する訴えを東京地裁に起こした。請求額は２人とも５０００万円ずつ。

　２人の代理人を務める塩谷安男弁護士は都内で記者会見を行い、簡易検査がずさんだった上、検査結果次第で不利益が生じる可能性を事前に通知しなかったことを指摘。さらに、検査手続きの段階で警察に通報し、大麻使用を既成事実化するなどして、２人の名誉を棄損したとしている。

　検査は同委員会の主導で行われており、中でも主要な立場だったとされる協会の伊勢ノ海、友綱、秀ノ山の各親方と、慶大の大西祥平教授を相手取り、提訴に踏み切った。

-------------------------------
妊婦たらい回し防止　医師の情報自動で登録　厚労・経産省　新システム開発へ
2008.11.10 23:00

　東京都内で脳内出血の妊婦が相次いで搬送拒否された問題で、厚生労働、経済産業両省は１０日、医師の稼働状況や受け入れ可否を判断できる最新鋭の情報伝達システムの共同開発を行うことを決めた。舛添要一厚労相と二階俊博経済産業相が同日、合意した。

　現在のシステムは、「空きベッドの有無」「手術の可否」など受け入れ状況を「○」「×」で表示できる東京都のネットワークシステムが周産期母子医療センターなど２４医療機関を結んでいる。だが、先月上旬、都内の妊婦（３６）が８病院から受け入れを断られて死亡した際には、受け入れが「○」となっていた３つの病院が、実際には搬送を断っていた。医師らが診療に忙殺され、更新が遅れたことなどが原因だった。

　このため、同問題を所管する厚労と、医療技術開発を支援する経産の両省大臣は改善策に乗り出すことで一致。具体的には、産科や脳外科といった救急にかかわる医師に位置情報を把握できる医療用携帯電話を持たせて、自動的に診療中か否かを判断できるシステムを国立病院など救急医療を扱う都内の５～６病院へ試験的に導入させる。病院内で情報が一元化できるかを確認した上で、将来的には病院ごとのネットワーク化を実現し、救急隊も把握できるようなシステムの開発を目指すという。

　舛添厚労相は「医師は情報を更新する暇がない。早急に技術協力して、情報ギャップが起こらないようにしたい」としている。

-------------------------------
メソポタミア湿原救え、水質データ公開で世界から知恵募る　ＩＬＥＣ (1/2ページ)
2008.11.9 00:13

　フセイン政権時代に荒廃したイラク南部の湿地帯「メソポタミア湿原」を再生するため、湖沼の環境問題に取り組む世界湖沼会議を主催する財団法人「国際湖沼環境委員会（ＩＬＥＣ）」（滋賀県草津市）が湿原の観測資料を公開する計画を進めていることが８日、わかった。湿原は一時約９割が消失。現在は徐々に回復しつつあるが、高い塩分濃度などの水質は改善されておらず、データを公開して世界の専門家から水質改善策の知恵を募り、再生に役立てたいという。

　メソポタミア湿原は、チグリス川とユーフラテス川の合流部に位置し、かつては日本の四国より広い約２万平方キロの面積があった。ヨシなどの植物に覆われた大小の湖や固有の魚や水鳥などが生息。旧約聖書の創世記に登場する「エデンの園」があったとする説もあり歴史的、文化的に重要な地域とされる。

　しかし、１９７０年代以降、上流でのダム建設などで水量が減少。９０年代に入ると、湿地を拠点にする反政府ゲリラに対する旧フセイン政権の掃討作戦で、約９割が干上がり、周辺住民の多くが土地を離れたという。その後、フセイン政権が倒れ、堤防が撤去されるなどし湿地面積は回復傾向だが、水量の減少による塩分の高濃度化、生活排水の流入による富栄養化など、水質の悪化は改善されていない。