Alwaleed Buys Citigroup Stock as Loss Exceeds Buffett (Update2)
By Ben Holland
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Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Warren Buffett of the Gulf is taking a bigger hit from the credit crunch than the original.
Prince Alwaleed bin Talal was lauded by Time magazine as the Middle East’s answer to the Sage of Omaha after a 1991 investment in Citigroup Inc.’s predecessor helped make the Saudi billionaire one of the world’s five richest people.
This year, Alwaleed’s investments aren’t keeping pace with regional benchmarks, let alone Buffett. His Riyadh-based Kingdom Holding Co. has slumped 63 percent -- more than Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All-Share Index or Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. -- wiping out $13 billion in value. Kingdom today said Alwaleed will boost his Citigroup stake, his largest holding, to 5 percent, even after the shares fell more than 80 percent since Jan. 1.
“When people nail their colors to the mast in such an obvious way, if then it all blows up, then that’s very damaging to your reputation,” said Ken Murray, chairman of Blue Planet Investment Management in Edinburgh, who says he shorted shares in Citigroup last year.
Alwaleed and his companies are buying Citigroup shares because the prince believes they are “dramatically undervalued,” Kingdom Holding said in a news release. The combined stake stands at less than 4 percent after recent Citigroup share sales diluted the holding, Kingdom said.
“Prince Alwaleed is fully confident that Citigroup’s universal banking model and global franchise will make it a long- term winner in the financial services industry,” Kingdom said.
The announcement failed to halt Citigroup’s slide. The shares slumped 17 percent to $5.30 as of 10:10 a.m. in New York trading, extending this week’s drop to 45 percent on concern banks will post further losses next year as the economy falters.
A Billionaire’s Life
Like Buffett, Alwaleed, 53, built his fortune by investing in brand-name companies he considered were undervalued, including Apple Inc., News Corp. and Time Warner Inc. Forbes magazine estimated he was worth $21 billion in March, ranking him 19th among the world’s billionaires.
A nephew of the late King Fahd bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, Alwaleed stands out among more than 2,000 Saudi princes because he’s made money. After earning a bachelor’s degree from Menlo College near San Francisco, he returned to the Persian Gulf and parlayed an inheritance of less than $1 million into a billion-dollar fortune in the 1980s, mostly through real estate investments, according to Riz Khan’s biography “Alwaleed: Businessman, Billionaire, Prince” (William Morrow, 2005.)
Alwaleed’s arrival as a celebrity investor came with the Citicorp stake, for which he paid the equivalent of $2.98 a share after adjusting for stock splits, acquisitions and spinoffs, according to Bloomberg calculations. In the decade through 2007, the stock averaged $42.
$319 Million Plane
Unlike Buffett, who for years drove a 2001 Lincoln Town Car, Alwaleed enjoys the trappings of wealth. His garage contains two of everything -- including a pair of Rolls Royce Phantoms -- as the prince buys a matching model for his bodyguards whenever he picks a new car, according to Forbes. Buffett paid $31,500 for the home in Omaha where he’s lived for 30 years; Alwaleed spent $100 million on his 317-room Riyadh palace.
And when Airbus SAS put the world’s biggest aircraft, the A380 superjumbo, on sale last year, Alwaleed was the first private customer to order one. That cost him $319 million, and fitting out the plane’s interior may cost “several hundred million” more, Airbus said.
Also in contrast to Buffett, Alwaleed’s investments are underperforming in the credit crunch. The prince’s reluctance to exit positions may be one reason.
‘Never Sell’
“There are some assets I would never sell,” he told the U.K.’s Independent newspaper in 2005, citing Citigroup, News Corp. and the luxury hotel group Four Seasons Hotels Inc.
In another 2005 interview with Charlie Rose of the U.S. Public Broadcasting Service, Alwaleed outlined his criteria for buying stocks. “The return on investment in the coming five to 10 years has to be within our acceptable conditions,” he said. That means “at least 20 to 25 percent” annual returns.
Few investors, including Buffett, are making that kind of money this year.
Berkshire Hathaway fell the most in at least 23 years yesterday, dropping for the eighth straight day since reporting a 77 percent decline in third-quarter profit.
Still, the stock has beaten the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index this year, falling 41 percent compared with a 45 percent drop in the U.S. benchmark.
Those who bought Kingdom Holding shares when Alwaleed took his company public in a July 2007 initial share sale have lost 55 percent. The Tadawul index fell 45 percent in the same period. Alwaleed still owns 94 percent of Kingdom Holding.
Bargain Hunter
There’s every chance the prince will unearth fresh bargains in the current slump, says John Rossant, executive chairman of Publicis Live, which organizes World Economic Forum events in the Middle East and elsewhere.
When Alwaleed bailed out Citicorp in 1991, the New York- based bank “was very close to going bankrupt, the stock price was a fraction of what it is even today,” says Rossant, who has worked with Alwaleed since the mid-1990s and calls the Citicorp investment “one of the smartest of all time.”
“You’ve got to think, if you look over the equity landscape today, that there are similar situations,” he says. “If you’ve got capital now, and you have to assume that someone like Alwaleed does, he would stand to make a lot of money.”
Right now, he isn’t. Kingdom Holding has stakes in 15 publicly traded non-Gulf companies, according to its Web site. Only four have outperformed their national benchmark this year, according to Bloomberg data.
Those four are among Kingdom’s smaller stakes: it owns 1 percent or less of Hewlett Packard Co., PepsiCo Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Procter & Gamble Co., according to the Web site.
Jeddah Skyscraper
Alwaleed’s larger holdings are faring worse.
Kingdom holds 7 percent of New York-based News Corp., Rupert Murdoch’s media company, which has fallen 69 percent this year. Songbird Estates Plc, the majority owner of London’s Canary Wharf financial district, plunged 82 percent as tenants such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. went bust. Alwaleed owns 21 percent of Songbird, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Alwaleed is also one of two Middle Eastern investors racing to build the world’s first kilometer-high skyscraper in the Persian Gulf. On Oct. 13, Kingdom Holding announced plans for the Kingdom Tower, part of the $27 billion Kingdom City real-estate project in the Red Sea city of Jeddah.
Such attention-grabbing projects are under review throughout the Gulf, as oil prices plunge and borrowing costs rise. On Nov. 17, Nakheel PJSC, the Dubai-owned developer that’s Alwaleed’s rival to break the 1,000-meter barrier, announced it was “scaling back” some projects, without saying which ones.
“Real estate is bound to correct downward, and a lot of projects are going to get delayed,” says John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Saudi British Bank in Riyadh. “The region’s going through the final stages of what I call the ‘mine is bigger’ syndrome.”
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Short View: Confidence collapse
By John Authers
Published: November 20 2008 19:15 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:15
History is the only way to grasp what is gripping markets.
The yield payable on the two-year US treasury bond, which reflects trends in interest rates, is below 1 per cent for the first time ever. The yield on 30-year Treasuries, led by expectations of inflation, is below 4 per cent, at an all-time low.
Thus the bond market expects historically low interest rates in the developed world, which will fail to avert a protracted dose of slow growth and deflation.
Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year bonds is less than the dividend yield on the S&P 500 index for the first time in 50 years. Stocks’ superior potential to grow over time is now valued as worthless, swamped by the risk of further declines.
As for stocks, the S&P fell on Thursday to 776.76, equal – to two decimal places – to its lowest close during the bear market of 2002, before rallying. Falling through that level would be a huge psychological blow.
The price of crude oil fell below $50, to its lowest level since 2005, in spite of the widespread belief that world production is near its peak level and is set to decline.
In combination, this is an historic loss of confidence in the western economy. Why?
Data continue to show that the economy sustained a sharp jolt after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September. New US jobless claims, the highest since 1982, are the latest bad news.
And confidence in the financial sector, which has led the decline in the economy, sustained a critical new blow last week when the US Treasury secretary Hank Paulson said that the “Tarp” bail-out fund would not, after all, buy troubled mortgage-backed assets. That caused a renewed collapse in the value of those assets and the institutions holding them.
History will judge whether this collapse in confidence makes sense; it seems highly likely to judge Mr Paulson’s statement a mistake.
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Short View: Banking confidence collapse
Published: November 21 2008 02:08 | Last updated: November 21 2008 02:08
The five-year rally in US stocks that began shortly before the invasion of Iraq and peaked last October can now be dismissed as an aberration.
On Thursday, the S&P 500, the most important index of the US market, fell 6.5 per cent, dropping through the low it set in October 2002, and bringing it to levels it last saw in April 1997.
It is back to a level it last recorded a month before Amazon.com went public. Both the dotcom bubble and what is now known to be the credit bubble have burst – but there is no clarity as to where stock valuations may come to rest.
The bond market suggests we are in territory much more inhospitable than in 1997. The yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which reflects trends in interest rates, is below 1 per cent for the first time. The yield on 30-year Treasuries, led by expectations of inflation, is below 4 per cent, at a record low.
Thus the bond market expects historically low interest rates in the developed world, which will fail to avert a protracted dose of slow growth and deflation.
The yield on 10-year bonds is less than the dividend yield on the S&P 500 index for the first time in 50 years. Stocks’ greater potential to grow over time is now valued as worthless.
Why such a total loss of confidence in the US economy?
Data continue to show that the economy sustained a sharp jolt after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September. New US jobless claims, the highest since 1982, are the latest bad news.
And confidence in the banking sector, which led the decline in the economy, took a critical new blow last week when the US Treasury secretary Hank Paulson said that the Tarp bail-out fund would not, after all, buy troubled mortgage- backed assets. That sent the value of companies holding those assets tumbling, led by Citigroup, which is back to its level of May 1995.
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Swiss franc sinks after rate surprise
By Peter Garnham and Miles Johnson
Published: November 20 2008 11:32 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:03
The Swiss franc dropped to its weakest level in 15 months against the dollar after an interest rate cut from the Swiss National Bank surprised investors.
The central bank cut rates by 100 basis points, taking its three-month interest rate target range to 0.5-1.5 per cent. It was the third time in two months the SNB had eased monetary policy outside a scheduled meeting.
The accompanying statement indicated that the SNB expected inflation to fall below 2 per cent as early as the end of this year and acknowledged higher risks of a marked slowdown in economic activity in Switzerland next year.
Geoffrey Kendrick at UBS said the move signalled that the SNB was concerned about deflationary risks.
He said that while the immediate impact of the rate cut would be towards Swiss franc weakness, the resultant anxiety over the possibility that the central bank knew something about the economic deterioration that investors did not could push stock markets lower. This, he said, could ultimately boost the Swiss franc.
“With Switzerland originally considered as one of the better placed economies amid the current crisis, uncertainty would only add to market woes and continue to support safe havens,” said Mr Kendrick.
By midday in New York, the Swiss franc had fallen 0.5 per cent against the dollar to SFr1.2194, its weakest level since August 2007, and lost 0.6 per cent to SFr1.5269 against the euro.
Meanwhile, the yen advanced as heightened concerns over the global economy sparked a fresh wave of deleveraging across asset markets.
The yen benefits from increased risk aversion since many investments in riskier, higher-yielding assets have been funded by selling the low-yielding Japanese currency.
Analysts said one factor behind the deterioration in investor sentiment was concern over the effectiveness of the US Treasury’s Tarp (Troubled Assets Relief Program) rescue plan, which sent financial stocks lower.
Derek Halpenny at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ said the collapse in financial stocks had brought the issue of bank solvency back to the fore, which could have an impact on risk appetite and boost the yen.
The yen rose 1.2 per cent to Y94.68 against the dollar, climbed 1 per cent to Y118.50 against the euro and gained 2.2 per cent to Y140.02 against the pound.
The yen also advanced against the higher-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars, rising 3.6 per cent to Y58.78 and 2.6 per cent to Y50.56 respectively.
Meanwhile, the dollar gained 1.2 per cent against the pound to $1.4782, in spite of the gloom emanating from the US, and held steady against the euro at $1.2528.
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Fresh worries over Asia’s sliding currencies
By Peter Garnham in London, Song Jung-a in Seoul and John Aglionby in Jakarta
Published: November 20 2008 19:03 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:03
Emerging market currencies in Asia came under renewed pressure on Thursday, with the South Korean won and the Indonesian rupiah falling to their lowest levels since the Asian financial crisis of 1998.
Analysts said that fears over a sharp slowdown in global growth prompted a renewed downward shift in risk appetite. This drove wary foreign investors into repatriating funds from the region, piling pressure on local currencies.
Emerging market currencies were hit hard last month as interbank lending seized up. This had led foreign investors to sell emerging market assets as they scrambled for dollar liquidity. However, the announcement that the Federal Reserve had established currency swap lines with four emerging market central banks, including South Korea, helped ease liquidity concerns and pulled emerging market currencies away from their lows at the end of October.
But David Hauner at Bank of America said it was clear that the move was just a bear market rally and that the downward trend in emerging market currencies remained in place.
The Korean won plunged 3.5 per cent to a 10-year low of Won1,496.00 against the dollar as foreign investors continued to dump Korean shares. On Thursday foreign investors sold a record amount of Korean shares, pushing the main Kospi index 6.7 per cent lower. The Korean currency has lost 37 per cent of its value so far this year including a 13 per cent drop this month alone.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah fell on fears that Indonesia might become the next global victim of the ongoing turmoil. The rupiah slid 2.3 per cent to a 10-year low of Rp12,475 to the dollar, taking its fall so far this month to 13.6 per cent.
Financial instruments were indicating the market expects the rupiah to weaken another 12 per cent within the next month. Meanwhile credit default swap spreads over US Treasuries, an indicator of perceived sovereign risk, rose to 950 basis points. This compares to 510 basis points on November 4.
Fauzi Ichsan, of Standard Chartered Bank, said: “I reckon [the falling rupiah] is 80 per cent global factors and 20 per cent domestic ones. The main local issue is drying up dollar liquidity as demand is rising – but that’s happening across the region too.” Analysts say Jakarta’s refusal to give a full guarantee on bank deposits, unlike Singapore and Hong Kong, is prompting demand for dollars.
Elsewhere in the region, the Thai baht traded as low as Bt35.17 to the dollar, its weakest level in 20 months, the Philippine peso eased 0.2 per cent to 49.978 pesos while Taiwan dollar dropped 0.4 per cent to T$33.405.
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Reykjavik borrows $10bn to stave off collapse
By David Ibison in Stockholm and Alex Barker in London
Published: November 20 2008 08:56 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:49
Iceland had to borrow about $10bn on Thursday, roughly the size of its entire gross domestic product, to prevent its economy collapsing.
The move underlined the damage wrought by last month’s disintegration of the country’s banking system.
Iceland finally secured a $5.1bn (€4bn, £3.4bn) bail-out for its crisis-stricken economy, comprising $2.1bn from the International Monetary Fund and additional loans of up to $3bn from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, Poland and the Faroe Islands.
It also agreed to borrow £2.2bn from the UK government and €1.3bn from the Netherlands government which will be used to compensate depositors in Icesave, the online arm of Landsbanki, the collapsed bank.
The loans will expose 320,000 Icelanders to a brutal recession, soaring inflation and an enormous debt burden that will haunt them for years in the form of taxes, threatening to trigger mass emigration. Up to a third of the population have said they want to flee the island.
The huge rescue package and its damaging domestic effect mark the official end of a 17-year experiment in free market economics that transformed Iceland from a fishing-based backwater to a booming tiger economy and now to the humiliation of an IMF-led bail out.
The £2.2bn owed to the UK has been a source of acute tension between London and Reykjavik since Iceland’s banking system collapsed, triggering the worst breakdown in diplomatic relations between the two states since the cod wars of the 1970s.
UK treasury officials said yesterday that while exact terms of the debt financing agreement would be set over coming weeks, the acceptance of the principle of treating all creditors fairly was a significant step forward.
The IMF-led loans, which will be used to bolster Iceland’s foreign exchange reserves, clear the way for the country to refloat its currency, which is regarded as a crucial next step towards restoring its international credibility.
“It is imperative that the authorities move quickly to stabilise the currency and lay the foundations for economic recovery and a normalisation of financial flows,” said Paul Rawkins, senior director at Fitch Ratings.
The krona has lost about 70 per cent of its value since the crisis. Authorities are braced for a new wave of selling by foreign owners of up to IKr400bn ($3bn, €2.4bn, £2bn) of Icelandic bonds that could push it even lower.
The social and political implications of the crisis and the loans needed to bail the country out will be apparent in the months to come.
The government has already agreed to reverse its long-standing opposition to joining the European Union and adopting the euro as its currency. It hopes to start discussions early next year.
But frequent demonstrations on the streets of Reykjavik by disgruntled citizens against Geir Haarde, prime minister, and David Oddsson, the governor of the central bank, indicate that there could be pressure for political change in the near future.
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Basel outlines stricter limits for banks’ capital
By Peter Thal Larsen in London
Published: November 20 2008 19:20 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:20
Plans to make banks hold greater capital reserves and limit the amount they can borrow have been outlined by the world’s leading banking watchdog in an effort to prevent a repeat of the credit crisis.
The proposals from the standard-setting Basel Committee on Banking Supervision are an attempt to salvage a global regulatory framework for the industry.
The move comes after a string of state-backed rescues in the US and Europe as governments have injected capital into their banks in an bid to shore up confidence in the financial system.
The crisis has triggered calls from some policymakers to scrap the Basel II framework for global bank regulation, which is seen as having contributed to the crisis by allowing banks to operate with relatively low capital reserves.
However, some regulators believe that the Basel framework, which took nine years to put in place, can be salvaged.
The Basel Committee yesterday signalled that over the long term it would encourage banks to make provisions for bad debts throughout the economic cycle. This would boost banks’ capital reserves while also providing a brake on growth in new lending.
The watchdog also signalled it might introduce rules to limit the absolute amount of debt a bank can take on relative to its capital base.
This measure, known as a leverage ratio, had been fiercely resisted by European banks but was recently introduced by the Swiss regulator following the meltdown at UBS.
Nout Wellink, president of the Dutch central bank and chairman of the Basel Committee, has defended Basel II, arguing that the framework had only come into force in many countries at the beginning of 2008.
However, he acknowledged that the crisis had created the need for fundamental reform. “Ultimately, our goal is to help ensure that the banking sector serves its traditional role as a shock absorber to the financial system, rather than an amplifier of risk between the financial sector and the real economy,” he said in a recent speech.
Basel officials believe the new rules, details of which will be drawn up over the next year, would provide a basis for reestablishing privately owned financial institutions. However, they stressed that the Basel Committee had no intention of forcing through new measures until the crisis has eased.
“We’re not going to jack up all the minimum capital requirements in the middle of a crisis,” one said.
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Aerospace sector prepares for rocky ride
By Michael Kavanagh
Published: November 20 2008 19:48 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:48
British aerospace and defence companies have joined their manufacturing peers in pointing to a rocky 2009 for employees and investors, with job cuts announced at Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems.
Sir John Rose, Rolls-Royce chief executive, has become known in policy circles as a champion of British manufacturing competence in the face of competition from lower-cost economies. He set out a year-long programme of tough medicine for the aircraft engine maker as it faces a long-anticipated slowdown in civil aviation.
So far the company has set out specific plans for 140 job cuts at its assembly and test facility in Derby. But the supplier of engines and power turbines is seeking a headcount reduction internationally of 1,500-2,000 from a global total of 39,000.
If the cuts are applied proportionately across the globe, the British aerospace sector could be facing the loss of more than 1,000 Rolls-Royce jobs. The company employs 22,000 in the UK, including 12,500 in Derby.
News of the job losses will be unwelcome in the east Midlands, where JCB, the digging machine maker, is already extending job cuts because of a drop in demand.
Rolls-Royce said it hoped normal attrition of staff, voluntary redundancy and curtailing recruitment could help avoid the need for widescale compulsory job losses.
The company is backing a planned academy, focusing on developing local engineering skills, to be based near Derby. The academy’s main sponsor is JCB. Rolls-Royce said it would continue its “commitment to apprentice and graduate recruitment” as it planned beyond the downturn.
The question remains, how bad will things get?
Nick Cunningham, an aerospace and defence analyst at Evolution, said: “The job cuts of about 4 per cent is what big companies are doing anyway.” But he argued that a protracted downturn in aerospace could herald harsher cuts.
As a so-called “late-cycle” company, meaning it will be among the last to feel the pain from an aviation downturn, Rolls-Royce will need to plan for a protracted decline in aircraft deliveries from 2010, Mr Cunningham argued. It will also need to negotiate a decline of 15 to 20 per cent in the after-market, or maintenance, segment of its business in the coming year.
With many of its costs in sterling and revenues in dollars, Rolls-Royce put in place a robust hedging policy to protect against a stronger pound. Unfortunately, this means it will not benefit from sterling’s sharp decline.
Better news for Rolls-Royce is that its management is “operationally smart”, said Mr Cunningham, and by acting early and through flexible labour agreements, it should be as well placed as any rival to face the storm.
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Opec disarray as oil sinks to $50
By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London
Published: November 21 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 21 2008 02:00
The oil price yesterday sank below $50 a barrel for the first time since 2005 as the first signs of fractures within the Opec oil cartel became apparent.
Nigeria said it did not want to cut its production to try to stop the slide in prices because it needed high output to balance its budget, while Iran, Kuwait and others said they would support another production cut.
Odein Ajumogobia, Nigeria's energy minister, said it was not in his country's interest to cut production further, raising the likelihood the cartel could fail to achieve its goal of boosting prices by cutting output.
"We are in the process of [processing] our budget . . . based on an [oil] benchmark of $45 . . . If you cut the volume then it is going to affect your budget, so obviously we are not advocating a cut because it is not in our interest," he said.
Opec risks collapse if it is unable to act cohesively. The power of a cartel to boost prices depends on all significant members forgoing the revenue gain from selling more oil for the gain from the price boost that comes from withholding oil from the market. If one player cheats, the rest follow and the effort collapses, as it did in the early 1990s.
Opec members in October pledged to reduce their production by as much as 1.8m barrels a day. Though they have yet to fully implement that agreement, the group is considering a further production cut at its meeting in Cairo next week.
In New York, US oil futures prices plunged to an intraday low of $49.75 a barrel, down more than $3.50, and its lowest level since May 2005.
The drop came as investors dumped oil and other commodities on heightened fears of a protracted global recession and after Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's largest oil trader, told its clients it was closing all its trading recommendations in energy.
The options market priced in a growing likelihood that oil prices could sink as low $40-$45 a barrel before the end of the year, with the cost of insuring against such an event jumping overnight by as much as 90 per cent.
Investment banks such as Deutsche Bank and companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation have warned that oil prices could fall to $40 a barrel early next year as the credit crisis hits the real economy, with the slowdown spreading from the US and Europe into emerging markets such as China.
The slowdown is curbing demand for raw materials from oil to copper on a scale not seen in decades. Antoine Halff, of brokerage Newedge in New York, said: "Demand destruction today rivals that caused by the oil shocks of the 1970s."
The tone of a recent meeting of national oil companies, many of which came from Opec countries, was "panic", Fu Chengyu, chief executive of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, said this week.
All Opec members are struggling with the sharp drop in oil prices from this summer's record of $147. Ecuador, Opec's newest member, this week raised the spectre of defaulting on its loans.
Only the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Qatar can balance their external accounts in 2009 with prices below $50 a barrel, according to research by PFC Energy, the US-based industry consultant. Saudi Arabia needs barely more than $50, PFC said.
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Gem cuts back as diamond price falls
By William MacNamara
Published: November 18 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 18 2008 02:00
Gem Diamonds, the Aim-traded owner of a white diamond mine in Lesotho, has warned of operational cutbacks and a possible annual loss as the plunge in diamond prices takes its toll.
The shares tumbled 131½p to 213½p.
The miner will focus on the high-value Letseng mine and cut most exploration activity, reflecting a trend across commodity companies known as "high-grading" - or dropping everything but the most profitable operations to conserve cash as commodity prices fall.
Gem said yesterday that the average diamond sales price at Letseng fell from $2,512 a carat in the first half of the year to $1,557 in the third quarter and $1,382 in the fourth quarter thus far.
Although the value of Letseng's diamonds are far higher than industry averages, the 11 per cent quarter-to-quarter decline is an indication of the recent loss in value in the non-exchange-traded stones. Consumer cutbacks in jewellery spending are behind the fall, alongside a freeze in diamond banking that prevents traditional buyers from taking on stock in centres such as Antwerp.
Industry leaders De Beers and Alrosa have both started to cut production this month in response to falling prices.
Gem indicated it would mothball its low-margin Cempaka mine in Indonesia, curtail production at part of its Ellendale mine in Australia and cut exploration in Democratic Republic of Congo and Central African Republic. Such measures, it said, were intended to make the company profitable next year if diamond prices remained depressed.
But it noted its 2008 performance "will be significantly lower than our expectations in August . . . and could result in a loss for the full year." Such a loss would erase first-half pre-tax profit of $23.8m (£16.2m).
Glenn Turner, chief commercial director, joined other industry executives by stressing the fundamentals of the industry were sound, with demand continuing to outpace supply over the long term. "This is a glitch in an upward trend," he said. "Once the world's economies get back into equilibrium, the trend in diamond prices will pick up again."
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Canadian partner criticises De Beers
By William MacNamara in London
Published: November 20 2008 18:23 | Last updated: November 20 2008 18:23
The world’s largest diamond deposit remains undeveloped for no good reason, shareholders of a Canadian diamond company have claimed in a criticism of De Beers. The industry leader is the company’s joint venture partner in developing the enormous deposit in Canada.
Mountain Province Diamonds, a Canadian junior backed by billionaires Dermot Desmond and Harry Dobson, is seeking to either agree revised terms of its 12-year-old joint venture or initiate legal action against De Beers, according to people close to the company.
In 1995, MPD discovered the Gahcho Kue diamond lode near Yellowknife in Canada’s Northwest Territories. It is estimated to contain 47m carats of diamonds.
MPD signed a joint venture agreement with De Beers in 1997 under which the South African company was named project operator with a 51 per cent stake.
De Beers has since funded a standard series of drillings tests at Gahcho Kue but critics claim progress never gained momentum. Production will not start until 2012 at the earliest.
“The [MPD] board have been very frustrated over the years by perceived delays in pushing forward the project,” said Mr Dobson, the Scottish mining entrepreneur who owns 2 per cent of MPD shares. Frustration intensified “as we watched De Beers place in production two other operations in Canada that we think of as inferior”.
In July De Beers, which controls 40 per cent of global diamond production, opened two diamond mines in Canada in a sign of the Canadian diamond industry coming of age. It owns 100 per cent of both. The larger mine, Snap Lake, is close to the Gahcho Kue deposit and was tested, built and brought into production over an eight-year period from 2000.
Jim Gowans, chief executive of De Beers Canada, said De Beers had spent $180m exploring and testing Gahcho Kue in a clear sign of its commitment. But he said De Beers had much more information about the two mines it bought and developed than about Gahcho Kue, where the required test work took longer because of difficult conditions in northern Canada.
“These projects can take 10 to 12 to 20 years to bring into production,” he said. “Until Gahcho Kue is developed, Mountain Province will have no cash flow and about that I have a lot of empathy for them.”
However, he said De Beers managed and developed three sites in Canada and other sites globally, and so had different priorities from MPD with its single deposit.
Patrick Evans, MPD chief executive, said: “Litigation is always an option but it’s the last resort.” Long-term projections of diamond demand outstripping supply made developing large deposits essential, he added.
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Diamond dispute heats up in frozen north
By William MacNamara in London
Published: November 20 2008 18:17 | Last updated: November 20 2008 18:17
To reach the diamonds of sub-Arctic Canada, miners must drill through frozen rock in a desolate environment almost devoid of roads. A mine in the region can take a decade or longer to bring into production.
Yet when the process takes 15 years, investors in any climate might begin wondering what is going on – especially if the miner in question is De Beers.
The company has deeper pockets and more expertise than anyone in the industry. In the case of a diamond deposit the size of Gahcho Kue in Canada’s Northwest Territories, De Beers would seem to have an incentive to unearth the stones as soon as possible.
However, perceptions of De Beers’ power, and what the company does with it, are behind the dispute over Gahcho Kue as much as geology or budgets.
It has been 12 years since Mountain Province Diamonds entered a joint venture with De Beers to develop Gahcho Kue, with De Beers as project operator holding a 51 per cent stake.
But the bonanza remains at initial stages of development and the soonest it could reach production is 2012. Meanwhile, everyone in the diamond industry warns that no big discovery has been made in a decade, creating long-term expectations of supply shortages.
“This is a source of tremendous frustration for us,” said a shareholder of Mountain Province, which discovered Gahcho Kue in 1995. “At the heart of the [joint venture] was De Beers committing to a proper and timely development of the project, and, 12 years later, there has been nothing proper and nothing timely about it,” said the shareholder, who asked not to be identified.
Some shareholders say it is not inconceivable that De Beers, which in an earlier era stockpiled diamonds to prop up the price, is delaying Gahcho Kue to control the entry of so many diamonds on to the market.
De Beers dismisses such claims, saying the project was taking a long time because its economic viability was still not determined. The carat value of the deposit’s diamonds is relatively low, said Jim Gowans, chief executive of De Beers Canada, so more testing is needed to decide if it is economical to bring them out of the ground. “We’re excited about Gahcho Kue,” he said, “but we’re going to do things systematically.”
Mountain Province says the diamonds are worth more than De Beers’ estimates, and it disputes the rationale for delay. It is considering legal options to have De Beers dismissed as project operator.
The dispute is likely to end in settlement. De Beers enjoys less market share and room for tough tactics than ever before. Its posture in recent years has been conciliatory.
In October, De Beers settled a dispute with its joint venture partner African Diamonds, a junior miner. The company claimed De Beers, with a 71 per cent stake, was trying to delay development of the AK06 mine in Botswana to arrange terms for the diamonds to be sold through De Beers channels.
De Beers claimed its primary concern in requesting a project delay was unreliable power supplies.
In a compromise, De Beers agreed to start mine production on schedule but also won approval for the stones to be sold through Diamond Trading Company Botswana, its marketing arm, which is half-owned by Botswana’s government.
Threatening De Beers with lawsuits – as both African Diamonds and Mountain Province have done this year – is a sign of the reduced influence of De Beers as its share of global diamondproduction declines, according to one industry veteran.
The company under Gareth Penny, managing director, has taken pains to clean up its image. It has poured money into the Kimberley Process, outlawing “conflict diamonds” from strife-torn regions.
It has also spearheaded diamond beneficiation, or the sharing of diamond revenues with producer countries such as South Africa and Botswana.
De Beers’ handling of the Mountain Province dispute could change attitudes in an industry where negative perceptions of the company linger. But it appears less likely than ever to give Mountain Province an answer the junior company wants to hear.
“We are going to have to do a lot more work on capital costs to find an economical deposit [at Gahcho Kue],” Mr Gowans said.
Diamond prices are falling, he said, making Gahcho Kue’s cost effectiveness lower and further delays possible. On Tuesday, he told Reuters that De Beers Canada was cutting production by 10-20 per cent at its two fully owned mines in Canada.
De Beers, which has invested $180m in Gahcho Kue to date, has no intention of resigning as project operator, he added.
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EU urges action to exploit Arctic oil and gas
By Tony Barber in Brussels
Published: November 20 2008 15:10 | Last updated: November 20 2008 23:07
European Union policymakers called for a carefully managed international effort to exploit the Arctic’s oil and gas resources and said that its vast untapped reserves could enhance Europe’s energy security.
The European Commission demanded observance of the highest environmental standards and appealed for full protection of the rights of indigenous Arctic people.
The Commission’s initiative reflected concern about the risk of sharp rivalries among global powers in a region that is not governed by a specific international treaty regime and where no single country has sovereignty over the North Pole or the ocean around it.
According to the US Geological Survey, the Arctic accounts for about 22 per cent of the world’s undiscovered, technically recoverable resources, including 30 per cent of natural gas and 13 per cent of oil.
Scientists warn that the exploitation of these resources, if not properly managed, could damage a region where air temperatures are already increasing twice as fast as the global average and the polar ice is melting rapidly.
The Commission proposed that the EU engage in long-term co-operation with other countries with Arctic interests, particularly Norway and Russia.
Russia caused alarm in August 2007 when it planted a flag on the seabed under the North Pole, in support of a territorial claim on the pole and a large part of the Arctic first lodged in 2001.
Among western countries, Norway has submitted a similar claim. Canada and Denmark could follow.
The Commission’s report said: “Arctic resources could contribute to enhancing the EU’s security of supply concerning energy and raw materials in general. However, exploitation will be slow, since it presents great challenges and entails high costs due to harsh conditions and multiple environmental risks.”
Under the Commission’s proposals, new fishing in the Arctic would be banned until conservation and management rules had been established for areas where none are yet in force.
With the melting of sea ice opening up shorter trips from Europe to the Pacific, the Commission said it would be important to defend the principle of freedom of navigation.
The EU has a direct interest in the Arctic because three of its 27 member states have land territories there: Denmark, which owns Greenland, Finland and Sweden. The three non-European Arctic powers are Canada, Russia and the US.
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Untapped riches prompt fears of land grab
By Joshua Chaffin
Published: November 21 2008 01:16 | Last updated: November 21 2008 01:16
Long frozen both politically and geographically, the Arctic is rapidly thawing into another slippery terrain on which Europe’s twin desires to both preserve a planet in peril and secure a share of its dwindling resources are now playing out.
On Thursday, the European Commission made its most substantive effort to reconcile those competing agendas with the release of an Arctic initiative that urges nations to establish a better system of international governance for the region, to protect its environment and native people and to commit themselves to harvesting its resources sustainably.
However, the sheer abundance of the Arctic’s mineral wealth and the extreme fragility of its ecosystem will make that a complicated task.
This year, the US Geological Survey laid out some of the figures that are inspiring a frosty land-grab by governments and global energy companies. It predicted that the northern Arctic held some 90bn barrels of oil and a third of the world’s undiscovered natural gas, calling it “the largest unexplored prospective area for petroleum remaining on earth”.
The oil, more than 80 per cent of which was located offshore, was considered “technically recoverable” with current technology, according to the USGS.
“It is a region that is going to have a lot more attention,” said Jonas Garh Store, Norway’s foreign affairs minister, who observed in a 2005 speech that cold-war military calculations once governing the region were giving way to a scramble for its energy resources.
In addition to fossil fuels, the region also includes shipping routes and abundant fish resources, a scarce commodity that has become a regular source of strife among EU member states.
As the Arctic’s economic riches come into sharper focus, its environmental vulnerabilities also appear to be growing more acute. Last year it recorded its thinnest cover of summer ice on record. Some scientists predict that summer ice could disappear from the Arctic altogether by 2013, decades earlier than previous estimates.
That process not only threatens to raise sea levels, but could also accelerate global warming by releasing more carbon into the atmosphere, according to the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Those changes are already undermining the livelihood of the Innuit and other native populations.
Perversely, though, the ravages of global warming could make the region’s resources more plentiful and accessible than ever, opening up new shipping lanes and fishing grounds, as Joe Borg, the European fisheries commissioner, acknowledged last month.
“As the ice recedes, we are presented with a first-time opportunity to use transport routes such as the Northern Sea route. This would translate into shorter transport routes and greater trading possibilities, and will provide a better opportunity to draw upon the wealth of untapped natural resources in the Arctic,” Mr Borg said.
That, in turn, is bringing new players into the mix, including China, South Korea and Japan, which could complicate efforts to manage the area.
Mr Store, who consulted the Commission on its proposals, argued that new laws and diplomatic bodies were not needed to oversee the Arctic’s development.
Instead, he called for a greater focus on the Law of the Sea and other existing instruments.
He and other leaders are also citing the Arctic’s plight as they try to make their case for an ambitious agreement to reduce greenhouse gases at an international meeting in Copenhagen next year.
“The Arctic is a clarion call for the need to act on climate change,” Mr Store. “It is the canary in the coal mine.”
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Lukoil linked with Repsol deal
By Mark Mulligan in Madrid and Catherine Belton in Moscow
Published: November 20 2008 11:59 | Last updated: November 20 2008 17:17
Russian oil group Lukoil emerged as a possible investor in Repsol after one of its largest shareholders confirmed talks about the sale of its stake in the Spanish energy group.
La Caixa, the Catalan savings bank that controls 12.5 per cent of Repsol, said in a regulatory filing there had been “informal contacts” with possible buyers of all or part of its stake.
However, it added that “no concrete offer had been received.”
The bank was responding to Spanish media reports that Lukoil, Russia’s biggest non-state-owned oil company, was poised to take a 29.9 per cent stake in Repsol.
Speculation about the fate of Repsol has been rife since September when Sacyr Vallehermoso, the cash-strapped construction company, admitted it was seeking buyers for its 20 per cent stake in the energy group.
Last week, it emerged that Gazprom was also interested in buying the holding, although it denied it was in talks with Sacyr.
Sacyr, which paid €6.5bn ($8.1bn) for the stake in the 2006 bull market, is struggling under the weight of an €18.5bn debt load and risks breaching covenants on a €5.1bn bank loan taken out to fund the Repsol purchase.
This loan, in turn, is secured against the Repsol shares, meaning recent stock market turmoil has forced Sacyr to pledge additional assets to lenders.
The construction group is also close to agreeing the sale of Itínere, its toll road business. Sacyr’s drive to sell the Repsol stake has unsettled the Spanish government, which fears the divestment could lead to a full-blown takeover bid for the country’s only fully integrated oil and gas group.
Sacyr is seeking a large premium to Repsol’s current market value, meaning any buyer would want eventual control of the target.
Miguel Sebastián, the industry minister, said Repsol was a “strategic company and the key to strategic [energy] supplies in Spain . . . We will do everything possible to keep it independent and Spanish.”
Jose Luís Rodríguez Zapatero, the prime minister, appeared slightly more open to a deal, saying: “We are talking about private companies. The government must respect the companies and negotiations for the incorporation of other shareholders.”
Repsol declined to comment.
The company has had its sights on Russia’s massive oil and gas reserves, and could use the stake to negotiate access to exploration and development sites such as Sakhalin Island.
Russia’s oil companies are struggling under the weight of the global financial crisis, lower oil prices and high Russian taxation.
Lukoil has asked the Russian government for debt refinancing of $2bn-$5bn, and said it could consider eliminating annual bonuses and other supplementary compensation.
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S Korea plans to lend $1bn to Vale
By Christian Oliver and Song Jung-a in Seoul and Rebecca,Bream in London
Published: November 21 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 21 2008 02:00
South Korea plans to lend up to $1bn to Vale, the Brazilian mining company, in an effort to secure a stable supply of iron ore for the country's heavy industry, the bedrock of Asia's fourth biggest economy.
Korea is following China in an aggressive pursuit of raw materials across the developing world, signing contracts to plant crops, dig mines and drill for oil. Such deals are attractive because commodity imports, made painfully expensive by the weak won, are bleeding Korea's coffers.
The state-run Export Import Bank of Korea said it would conclude the financing contract in the first half of next year. The deal, currently a memorandum of understanding, will only fund Vale's iron and nickel projects in South America if Korean miners get a stake.
"Through this agreement, we can take advantage of the know-how and network of this leading resource developer," the Korean bank said. "We expect our companies to participate actively in resource development projects in South America."
The deal will offer some relief to a metals industry depressed by the global credit crisis. Iron ore prices are falling and steelmakers face anaemic demand from manufacturers.
Vale has a relatively strong balance sheet, having raised $12bn through a rights issue in July, but it also has an ambitious programme of new mine development in Brazil, for which it will need to attract extra funding.
Korea imports 23 per cent of its iron ore from Brazil, predominantly supplied by Vale, the world's biggest producer. Australia supplies 68 per cent of Korea's needs.
Although steel demand has weakened in the past two months, steelmakers are keen to secure iron ore supplies in preparation for an expected market rebound in 2009 or 2010.
The Export-Import Bank of Korea could not immediately say which Korean mining companies would join Vale's projects or say where the projects would be, but it is expected that Posco, the Korean steelmaker, will play a role in processing the ore.
The bank said Korean companies were already working in 19 projects across five South American countries and highlighted the role of SK Energy in developing liquefied natural gas in Peru.
Vale has also had previous dealings with Korea. Steelmaker Dongkuk signed a MOU with Vale earlier this year to study the feasibility of producing steel slabs in north-east Brazil.
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Cambodia holds land deal talks
By Raphael Minder in Hong Kong
Published: November 20 2008 18:22 | Last updated: November 20 2008 18:22
Cambodia is in talks with several Asian and Middle Eastern governments to receive as much as $3bn in agricultural investment in return for millions of hectares in land concessions, according to a senior government official.
Some of the deals would be finalised “in coming months”, said Suos Yara, under-secretary of state responsible for economic co-operation.
The revelation comes as impoverished countries rich in fertile land and water such as Cambodia, but also nations in east Africa, seek agriculture investments from resource-poor but capital-rich countries.
Kuwait and Qatar were “very strongly interested” in securing more farming land, he said, with South Korea and the Philippines, which suffered from rice shortages this year, among potential Asian investors.
“Food prices have recently fallen but that really makes little difference because the food supply issue will be there for the long term,” he said. “With this financial crisis, we need to seize this opportunity to develop our farming and switch [foreign] investment from construction to agriculture.”
Kuwait has already agreed to give Cambodia loans totalling $546m (€436m, £369m) to develop agriculture, the second largest aid pledge ever received by Cambodia, after aid and loans totalling $601m offered by China last year.
This week, Daewoo Logistics of South Korea secured a landmark deal with Madagascar to grow food crops to send back to Seoul on a 99-year lease. Daewoo hopes to farm its Madagascar lease for free but is promising local jobs and infrastructure investments in road and irrigation.
Suos Yara would not detail the terms of the potential deals but said leases would run between 70 and 90 years. He did not say how much investors will pay for the leases, with the $3bn more likely in infrastructure investments than rent.
Phnom Penh calculates that Cambodia has 6m hectares available for farming, of which 2.5m are under cultivation. By comparison, the Korean deal with Madagascar covers 1.3m hectares.
Apart from boosting farming acreage, Suos Yara said the deals would make an equally significant contribution in terms of infrastructure and technology upgrades in a country that has emerged from decades of war and a 1970s genocide.
Last year, Cambodia produced 2.5m tonnes of rice, of which about 1.3m was exported, from a sector that relies on a single annual harvest and family-run farms. “With better technology and irrigation, rice production could double in some areas,” he said.
Cambodia’s farming push comes as the government faces an abrupt economic slowdown after averaging growth of 9 per cent over the past decade, as Korean property developers and other cash-strapped foreign investors start to shelve real estate projects.
Cambodia attracted about $3bn of foreign direct investment in 2007, of which 45 per cent was in real estate projects and 25 per cent in agriculture. Suos Yara said the land deals would help maintain foreign investment at such levels but with about half of the total coming from farming investments.
The country has suffered a food crisis, with the Asian Development Bank providing $35m in emergency food assistance last month. However, Suos Yara said conditions had returned to normal. “It was a distribution problem and not a food shortage problem,” he said.
While most of the potential investors were seeking to bolster their food reserves, Phnom Penh had also been talking to biofuel producers, including Indonesia, about ceding land for crops such as jatropha, a succulent plant becoming increasingly popular in the production of biofuels.
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New threat to 2010 mulesing ban
* Marius Cuming, Perth, and Darren Gray
* November 20, 2008
THE Australian wool industry's commitment to end the controversial practice of mulesing by the end of 2010 is under serious question, after a sharp power shift at the top of the wool-growers' industry body.
A new broom was put through the leadership of the industry's research and marketing body (Australian Wool Innovation) at the group's annual general meeting in Perth yesterday, with the result heavily based on the future of mulesing.
A faction that has concerns about the mulesing deadline won control of AWI, after four new faces were elected to its nine-member board to add to the support on the board it already had.
Mulesing is the controversial practice of removing skin from around the backside of young Merino sheep to keep them from being eaten alive by blowfly maggots. It has been widely used since the 1950s as an effective method of protecting sheep from blowfly strike, but animal rights groups have attacked its use since 2004.
A wide cross-section of wool industry groups agreed at a meeting in Sydney four years ago to phase out mulesing by the end of 2010, but the issue has remained contentious.
AWI's Brian van Rooyen stood down as chairman yesterday but was re-elected to the board. He told the meeting growers did not have to adhere to the mulesing phase-out but said the world's retailers, who had been threatened by animal rights groups, expected it.
"Retailers are not prepared to fight the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) at their front doors over the mulesing issue," he said.
PETA bought the issue to the world's attention in 2004 when it drew high-profile retailers such as Abercrombie and Fitch to boycott Australian wool.
But AWI has struggled to find a viable alternative, with most growers continuing to mules their animals with the aid of pain relief.
The inventor of that pain relief product, known as Tri-Solfen, is a newly elected AWI director. The product was licensed to Bayer Animal Health in 2006.
Meredith Sheil admits she may have a potential conflict of interest given her company, Animal Ethics, has commercial arrangements with pain relief products under development and has said she may have to abstain from decisions regarding products that are being developed for sheep.
Also elected to the board was Englishman Laurence Modiano, one of the world's largest early-stage processors, New South Wales stud breeder George Falkiner and West Australian woolgrower and stud breeder David Webster.
The AWI election result came after a long and hard-fought campaign over the future of the Australian wool industry, once the biggest-earning segment of agriculture in the land but struggling under a 10-year drought, depressed prices and wool-growers dropping sheep for cropping and cattle.
Sheep numbers at the end of June had plummeted to 79.2 million, the lowest since the 1920s.
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EU approves reform of farm subsidies
By Joshua Chaffin in Brussels
Published: November 21 2008 03:49 | Last updated: November 21 2008 03:49
European farmers will continue to see direct subsidy payments give way to a more market-based incentives after EU ministers on Thursday agreed to the most sweeping reform of the group’s agricultural policy in five years.
However, the shift, agreed upon after an all-night bargaining session, was more gradual than some governments had hoped, leading to expressions of disappointment from the UK, in particular, that the EU had not gone further.
“On the big items of reform this is a step forward, but I regret what has been conceded in order to secure a deal which will lead to some new distortions in the short-term,” Hilary Benn, the UK farm minister, said in a statement.
Under Thursday’s agreement, farms that receive at least €5,000 ($6,200) in annual subsidies will see 10 per cent of those payments shifted to rural development budgets by 2012 – twice the current level.
That fell short of the commission’s proposal for a 13 per cent shift by 2012. The UK had been calling for a far more aggressive increase, arguing that such payments distort trade.
Ministers also agreed to allow more flexibility in how member states spread their direct payments to farmers – something that opponents claimed could create backdoor subsidies.
Marianne Fischer Boel, Europe’s agriculture commissioner, praised the agreement, saying: “I’m pleased we managed to find a compromise which preserved all the principles of our original proposal.”
The commission pointed to other measures that it argued would free farmers from the shackles of Brussels-based production quotas and tie them more closely to the free market. These included an abolition of requirements that farmers leave fallow 10 per cent of their arable land and a 1 per cent annual increase in the milk quota until it is removed altogether in 2015.
Italy, a chronic over-supplier of milk, was one of the biggest beneficiaries, winning approval to push forward its entire quota increase from next year.
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Shipping avoids Suez on piracy fears
By Heba Saleh in Cairo and Roula Khalaf in London
Published: November 20 2008 19:04 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:04
The Suez Canal, the international waterway crucial to Egypt’s economy, faces the threat of a dramatic decline in traffic as shipping companies shift to other sea routes to avoid Somali pirates.
AP Møller-Maersk, Europe’s biggest ship owner, said on Thursday it had decided to divert its fleet of 83 tankers to the longer and more expensive sea route around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa.
The Suez Canal is Egypt’s third source of foreign currency revenues after tourism and remittances and earned Egypt a record $5.2bn last year (€4.2bn, £3.5bn). Even before the piracy threat, the Canal was facing a decline in traffic amid a slowdown in international trade.
The hijacking last week of a Saudi supertanker, the Sirius Star, loaded with $100m-worth of crude in the Indian Ocean has refocused attention on the threat of piracy by well-armed Somali bandits operating in the Gulf of Aden and off the coast of east Africa.
On Monday Odfjell, a Norwegian company, ordered its more than 90 chemical tankers to take the longer route around Africa. Another Norwegian group, Frontline Shipping, the world’s biggest tanker operator, said on Thursday it was considering whether to stop using the canal. Somali pirates were reported to be demanding $25m in ransom to release the Saudi supertanker. Saud al-Feisal, the foreign minister, said in London that Riyadh was opposed to negotiations.
In Egypt, six Arab countries that share the Red Sea held an emergency meeting to forge a united response to the upsurge in piracy. Officials said ahead of the Cairo meeting that it would consider establishing a warning system for ships and setting up a piracy monitoring centre. But Cairo appeared to rule out taking part in any naval force deployed to secure the sea route.
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Glitterati heed call to Dubai's grand hotel
By Simeon Kerr in Dubai
Published: November 21 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 21 2008 02:00
A star-studded cast descended on Dubai last night as the Atlantis hotel held the emirate's swankiest party in years, ignoring the growing sense of economic uncertainty.
Film stars such as Robert de Niro and Charlize Theron rubbed shoulders with business luminaries such as Sir Richard Branson and Dubai's elite, while Australian singer Kylie Minogue entertained the crowd before a huge fireworks display filmed by a passing satellite.
The mood of celebration at the $1.5bn (£1bn) hotel - and the launch of a palm-shaped artificial island, Palm Jumeirah - flew in the face of the accelerating gloom, as the global financial crisis hits the Gulf's most ambitious city-state.
Dubai's supersonic growth over the past decade has turned it into a trade and business hub. But it faces a severe test as the financial storm forces a correction in real estate prices and raises questions of tourism plans.
Citibank warned this week Dubai's exposure to real estate and debt made it the most vulnerable economy in the Gulf to the crisis. Real estate prices are falling for the first time since 2002 and analysts have expressed concerns at Dubai's debt, which reaches more than 100 per cent of gross domestic product. Bankers and analysts say that while many of the projects under way in Dubai will be completed, the ambitious emirate's insatiable appetite for bigger and more extravagant buildings will now be constrained.
Sol Kerzner, chief executive officer of Kerzner International, part-owner of the hotel with government developer Nakheel, said occupancy at the Atlantis resort of 80 per cent plus had satisfied his hopes. He conceded that the next few years would be tough, though he still hoped to hit occupancy levels of 70 per cent plus as more developed markets fell into recession.
Mr Kerzner also acknowledged that plans for expanding the Atlantis resort and apartments were on hold as funding evaporated. He said he saw great growth potential in Dubai, but whether the future is as rosy as the Atlantis's salmon-soaked walls will be tested over the coming year.
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US report sees shift of power to east
By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington
Published: November 21 2008 00:27 | Last updated: November 21 2008 00:27
The world is shifting towards a multi-polar system with a less dominant US and a more powerful China and India, and a “historic” transfer of wealth from west to east, according to a new US intelligence report.
The Global Trends 2005 report, released by the director of national intelligence on Thursday, says that while the US will remain the most powerful country in 2025, the rise of emerging powers and regional blocs will constrain its ability to “call the shots” across the world.
The National Intelligence Council analysis concluded the US would be ever more constricted by scientific advances in other countries, the expansion of irregular warfare by state and non-state actors, the proliferation of long-range precision weapons and the growing frequency of cyber warfare. “The multiplicity of influential actors and distrust of vast power means less room for the US to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships.”
The report said the international system prevailing since the second world war would be “unrecognisable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from west to east, and the growing influence of non-state actors”.
The NIC analysis warned such multi-polar systems have historically been more unstable than bipolar or unipolar ones. It added that while there were likely to be strategic rivalries over trade, investment, technological innovation and acquisition, it could not “rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries”.
The report comes a week after the G20 leaders discussed the financial crisis, in a meeting seen as underscoring the growing importance of countries such as China, India, Brazil and Russia.
It said the financial crisis had the capacity to accelerate many current global trends but concluded the world was not “headed toward a complete breakdown of the international system as occurred in 1914-18 when an earlier phase of globalisation came to a halt”.
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Russian market reformer dies at 50
MOSCOW, Nov 20 - Boris Fyodorov, who advised on economic reform before the collapse of the Soviet Union and went on to found one of Russia’s biggest investment banks, died on Thursday in London, a spokesman said.
He was 50. Fyodorov was educated in the socialist economics of the Soviet Union but went on to switch between two roles as one of Russia’s most prominent economic reformers and a financier with wide contacts in the City of London and Wall Street.
His academic credentials, thick horn-rimmed glasses and bookish manner, hid a savvy investment sense. Fyodorov had held a seat on the board of state controlled gas giant Gazprom since 2000.
He said he was backed by more than 7 percent of shares, though he never confirmed the size of his stake in the world’s biggest natural gas company. In 1994 Fyodorov founded one of Russia’s first investment banks, UFG, with Harvard-educated banker Charlie Ryan, who had begun his career at Credit Suisse First Boston and come to Russia to advise on market reforms.
”Boris was a shining example that one person could combine Russian patriotism and liberalism. He was fervently pro-Russian and fervently pro-market,” said Florian Fenner, who set up UFG Asset Management with Boris Fyodorov six years ago.
At Gazprom, Fyodorov played a major role in pushing for better corporate governance at the company, which in the 1990s was brought to its knees by corruption and internal disputes. ”Everybody talked about corporate governance but he was one of the only people who stood up for it, at extreme personal risk to himself, in the bad old days of Gazprom,” said Mr Fenner.
Convinced of Russia’s lucrative investment opportunities, Fyodorov and Mr Ryan steered UFG through the chaotic and sometimes violent Russian economy of the 1990s that was dominated by a few dozen rich businessmen, known as the oligarchs. By the time Vladimir Putin – who both Fyodorov and Mr Ryan had met in St Petersburg the early 1990s – was elected president in 2000, UFG was one of Russia’s most respected investment banks.
As the Russian economy boomed, foreign investment banks started to look for local purchases and Deutsche Bank bought stakes in UFG, finally taking control and turning UFG into its Russian unit.
More recently, UFG Asset Management formed a joint venture with the German bank. UFG’s signature offering was a derivative which allowed foreigners to indirectly hold local shares in Gazprom despite a web of Kremlin rules and government decrees – known as the ring fence – which restricted foreign ownership.
Mr Putin – and a then little known adviser, Dmitry Medvedev – vowed to bring down the ring fence despite vested interests inside Gazprom who wanted the restrictions to stay. The ring fence meant that shares in Gazprom, Russia’s most important company, were significantly undervalued compared to other energy companies and Gazprom’s foreign traded shares.
Mr Putin removed the ring fence in 2005, fuelling a surge in Gazprom’s share price and allowing UFG and its clients to earn handsome profits. By May 2008, Gazprom was worth $370 billion.
Born in Moscow in 1958, Fyodorov studied economics. As the Soviet Union crumbled, he advised Mikhail Gorbachev’s Politburo on economic reforms and was made Finance Minister in 1990. He later served as Finance Minister under late former President Boris Yeltsin.
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Judge orders 5 Algerians at Guantanamo freed
WASHINGTON, November 20 – Five of six Algerians held nearly seven years at the US military prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba must be released, a federal judge ruled on Thursday in a setback for the Bush administration.
US District Judge Richard Leon ruled from the bench after holding the first hearings under a landmark Supreme Court ruling in June that gave Guantanamo prisoners the legal right to challenge their continued confinement.
US President-elect Barack Obama has promised to close the prison camp after he takes office in January. Meanwhile, US judges in Washington are moving ahead with case-by-case reviews of about 200 detainee legal challenges.
Reading his ruling as the detainees listened in Guantanamo via a telephone hookup, Mr Leon said the US government failed to prove the five men who had been living in Bosnia had planned to travel to Afghanistan to fight against US forces.
He ordered the US government to take all necessary and appropriate diplomatic steps to facilitate their release “forthwith.”
There are about 255 detainees at Guantanamo, which was set up in January 2002 to hold terrorism suspects captured after the September 11 attacks on the US by al Qaeda militants. Most have been held for years without being charged and many have complained of abuse.
The Algerians, who were picked up by Bosnian authorities in October 2001, were sent in January 2002 to Guantanamo and remain held there as “enemy combatants” without being charged.
US President George W. Bush said in 2002 the six men had been planning a bomb attack on the US embassy in Sarajevo. But Justice Department attorneys said last month they no longer would rely on those accusations to justify the continued detention of the six men.
However they argued the Algerians should be held because they planned to go to Afghanistan in late 2001 to fight US forces.
In ordering the release of the five men, Mr Leon said the allegation was based on only one unnamed source and he did not have enough information to judge the source’s reliability or credibility.
“To rest on so thin a reed would be inconsistent with this court’s obligation” to protect the Guantanamo detainees from the risk of erroneous or unlawful detention, Mr Leon said.
He ruled the government did provide enough evidence that one of the detainees, Belkacem Bensayah, supported al Qaeda and planned to fight against the United States in Afghanistan.
The ruling was the second involving Guantanamo prisoners seeking their release and another Bush administration defeat.
Last month, US District Judge Ricardo Urbina ordered the release of 17 Chinese Muslims, members of the Uighur ethnic group, after the government acknowledged they were not enemy combatants. Their release has been stayed, pending an appeal.
Mr Leon, who was appointed to the bench by Bush in 2002, held hearings in November to consider the government’s factual basis for holding the six detainees. The hearings were closed because of classified evidence.
He was the first federal judge to hold a full hearing under habeas corpus – a long-standing legal principle by which people can challenge their imprisonment – in a Guantanamo case since the Supreme Court’s ruling.
The six Algerians were among the more than 30 Guantanamo prisoners who won before the Supreme Court. The five ordered released were Lakhdar Boumediene, Mohamed Nechla, Mustafa Ait Idir, Saber Lahmar and Hadj Boudella.
Nadja Dizdarevic, who is Mr Boudella’s wife, told Reuters by telephone in Bosnia, “This is the victory of justice even though it comes after seven years of legal struggle.”
She said US and Bosnian authorities must ensure that the five get back to Bosnia, instead of being extradited to Algeria, and must allow them to join their families.
Mr Leon said the US government can appeal his ruling on the five men, but strongly urged top administration officials to forgo an appeal that would take as long as two years.
Mr Leon also cautioned that the case was “unique” and that “few if any” of the other detainee challenges were like it.
The White House said it disagreed with the portion of the ruling ordering the five men must to be released, but was pleased that one Algerian was affirmed as an enemy combatant and can continue to be held at Guantanamo.
White House spokesman Tony Fratto said the Justice Department was reviewing the decision on the five Algerians.
Justice Department spokesman Peter Carr said the ruling demonstrated the need for Congress to adopt procedures that are fair to the detainee, but allow ”the government to present its case without imperiling national security.”
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Bombed facility likened to reactor
By James Blitz in London and Anna Fifield in Damascus
Published: November 20 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 20 2008 02:00
A Syrian complex bombed by Israel in 2007 showed strong similarities to a nuclear reactor, the United Nations nuclear watchdog said yesterday as it urged Damascus to co-operate with an inquiry into the plant.
Syria denies the site was a nuclear facility but the International Atomic Energy Agency indicated in a report there was strong circumstantial evidence to suggest it had been a nascent reactor.
"While it cannot be excluded that the building in question was intended for non-nuclear use, the features of the building, along with the connectivity of the site to adequate pumping capacity of cooling water, are similar to what may be found in connection with a reactor site," it said.
The agency said Syria "has not yet provided the requested documentation in support of its declarations concerning the nature or function of the destroyed buildings".
The report said the agency had found "significant" amounts of uranium particles at the site in June but not enough to prove the existence of a reactor.
The allegations are a diplomatic embarrassment for Syria, which is moving towards a rapprochement with the European Union.
A Syrian official said: "The IAEA has taken samples of the soil for two or three months but they have found nothing nuclear - no radiation - so if they want to look at other spots they are diverting from their main purpose . . . maybe they want to spy for some power."
The agency said its inquiries were set back by the killing in August of its main Syrian contact, an apparent reference to Brigadier General Mohammad Suleiman, a security adviser to Bashar al-Assad, the president.
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Oxbridge accepts engineering diploma students
By David Turner, Education Correspondent
Published: November 21 2008 02:56 | Last updated: November 21 2008 02:56
Oxford and Cambridge universities on Thursday gave a boost to vocational qualifications by agreeing to accept candidates studying one of the six controversial new diplomas. Their decision to consider pupils who have studied the diploma in engineering is good news for ministers who have struggled to win acceptance for the qualifications – designed as a more work-relevant alternative to A-levels.
Geoff Parks, director of admissions for Cambridge and an engineering lecturer, said the advanced engineering diploma “may prove to be a better preparation” than the typical spread of A-levels a student would take before an engineering degree.
Mike Nicholson, head of undergraduate admissions at Oxford, said the decision would open up the university to engineering enthusiasts who wanted to concentrate on the subject while still only school-age.
“We recognise there are students who from an early age have identified they want to work in engineering and this provides a route for those who opt to study the advanced diploma in engineering to apply to study engineering at Oxford,” he said. Successful candidates could enter Oxford and Cambridge from 2010.
Ministers know the qualifications need to win the support of top universities to avoid being seen as inferior to A-levels, and therefore the province of less bright children. But the victory was bitter-sweet and is far from enough to ensure that diplomas will avoid second-class status as qualifications.
Both universities confirmed that the remaining five diplomas already being studied by pupils were unlikely to be suitable for any of their degrees. These include less academic subjects such as creative media and health and development.
Oxford and Cambridge also laid down rigorous conditions for candidates with an engineering diploma. Students will also need physics A-level and the diploma level 3 certificate in mathematics for engineering. This is narrower than maths A-level but has the virtue of being concentrated on maths, useful for engineering.
Meanwhile, ministers announced that 27 neighbourhoods in England had expressed an interest in setting up new higher education centres – which might be new universities or simply new campuses of existing institutions.
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財務相「為替変動に断固として対応」
中川昭一財務・金融担当相は21日午前の外国特派員協会での講演で、為替相場や株式市場の動向について「急激な変動はよくない。与えられた権限の中で断固として対応していく」と述べた。行き過ぎた円高・ドル安進行に対する為替介入実施や、一段の株価安定化策の検討を示唆したもの。
また、追加経済対策の財源となる08年度第2次補正予算案に関連し、「税収減への対応について国債を発行しないとは決めていない。つまり発行せざるを得ないということだ」と述べた。(14:16)
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たばこ、1本3円増税案 自民、社会保障の財源に
来年度税制改正で、たばこ税を一本当たり3円程度引き上げる案が20日、自民党内で浮上した。来年度予算編成で焦点となる社会保障費の増加分を2200 億円圧縮する計画を達成するのが狙い。ただ1箱（20本入り）当たり60円の値上げには喫煙者の反発も予想され、議論を呼びそうだ。
現行の税制では1箱300円のたばこで、国・地方合わせて約175円のたばこ税が課税されている。自民党幹部は同日夜、「1本当たり3円上げると、国・地方合わせて数千億円の税収増が見込める。社会保障費に充てるほか、一部は葉たばこ農家の経営支援に充てたい」と語った。
自民党は20日、道路特定財源の一般財源化を巡り、暫定税率を含めた現行の税率水準を3年程度、維持する方針も固めた。麻生太郎首相は早ければ3年後に消費税率を引き上げる考えを示しており、これに合わせて自動車関係諸税の簡素化や税率を見直す。保利耕輔政調会長と津島雄二税制調査会長ら幹部が同日夕に会談して大筋合意した。(09:44)
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中国、アリコ出資へ交渉 49％上限にＡＩＧから取得
中国の政府系ファンドである中国投資有限責任公司（ＣＩＣ）が経営難に陥っている米保険大手アメリカン・インターナショナル・グループ（ＡＩＧ）傘下の生命保険会社、アリコに出資する方向で交渉を始めたことが20日、明らかになった。最大でアリコ株の49％を取得することを軸に、年内の合意を目指している。アリコは日本を含む50カ国以上で生保事業を展開。金融危機を好機とみた中国が、国際的な保険会社の再編の主役に躍り出た形だ。
関係者によると、ＡＩＧは保有するアリコ株について、ＣＩＣと中国の保険会社の投資連合を相手に、交渉期限を年内に区切って優先的に交渉を進めているという。買収額は明らかにしていないが、アリコの時価総額を勘案すれば、49％の買収額で5000億―1兆円程度に上るとみられる。(07:00)
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埋蔵金の活用は「特例」 09年度予算編成 財制審の建議全容
財政制度等審議会（財務相の諮問機関）の2009年度予算編成に関する建議の全容が20日、明らかになった。政府の追加経済対策の財源に財政投融資特別会計の余剰資金を活用することについて「あくまで臨時的・特例的な対応」と容認、今後は国債償還に充てる原則を守るよう明記した。21日の会合での審議を経て、26日に中川昭一財務相に提出する。
社会保障を巡っては、基礎年金の国庫負担割合を来年度から2分の一に引き上げる政府方針を踏まえ「安定財源の確保は可及的速やかに対応すべき」と指摘した。政府・与党が年末に策定する税制抜本改革の「中期プログラム」に関しては、工程表を定めるプログラム法案の策定などを念頭に「絵に描いたモチにならないよう、しっかりとした担保が求められる」と明記した。(07:00)
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企業の海外利益還流策、政府税調案に明記へ 来年度税制改正
政府税制調査会（首相の諮問機関）の2009年度税制改正答申の原案が20日分かった。日本企業が海外で稼いだ利益を国内に戻しやすくする税制の創設などを盛り込む。消費税については、社会保障の財源として引き上げの必要性を明記した昨年の答申をほぼ踏襲。政府・与党が消費税を含めた税制改革に向けた「中期プログラム」を作成する方針を決めたことを前向きに評価する。
現行の日本の法人税制度は企業の海外所得も課税する「全世界所得課税制度」。日本企業は海外で稼いだお金を配当として日本に戻すと、法人実効税率で約 40％と主要国で最高水準の税負担がかかる。日本の現地法人が持つ内部留保の残高は過去最高水準に膨らんでおり、政府税調はこうした受取配当を非課税にするよう求める。(07:00)
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ブラジル・インドと社会保障協定の交渉へ 政府
政府はブラジル、インドと相次ぎ、社会保障協定の締結に向けた交渉に入る。現地で働く日本人が年金保険料を二重払いしなくて済むほか、加入期間が短くて保険料が掛け捨てになる事態を回避できる。経済成長著しいＢＲＩＣｓ（ブラジル、ロシア、インド、中国）の一角との協定を皮切りに、先進国から新興国に適用範囲を拡大する。
ブラジルで働く日本人の会社員は日本だけでなく、ブラジルでも年金保険料を払っている。協定を結べば、ブラジルで働く期間が5年未満なら日本の公的年金保険料を支払うだけでよくなる。一方、5年以上ならブラジルの保険料のみを支払うことになる。
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消費税4-8％上げ必要、社会保障充実へ試算 諮問会議
政府の経済財政諮問会議は20日の会合で、社会保障制度の充実に向けて2015年度に必要になる国と地方の財政負担を試算した。社会保障の機能充実や国債の発行抑制など複数の選択肢で算出。消費税換算で4％台前半―8％台半ばの追加財源が必要となる。ただ増税分を機能の充実に使うか、財政再建に振り向けるかなどで、関係者の意見の開きは大きい。
試算は医療・介護の充実や財源の安定など四つの政策について、それぞれ必要な財源額を民間議員がまとめた。年末までにまとめる「社会保障・税財政改革中期プログラム」で示す財源の議論のたたき台となる。(07:00)
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11月の消費意欲指数が低下、「節約志向に拍車」 博報堂調べ
博報堂が21日発表した11月の「消費意欲指数」は、10月から1.8ポイント低下して49.6となった。11月としては1993年の調査開始以来、2 番目に低い水準。景気減速の懸念が強まっていることなどが響き、消費者の「節約志向に拍車がかかっている」と分析している。
指数は「モノを買いたい、サービスを利用したい」という意欲が最高に高まった状態を100とし、11月の状態を消費者419人に聞いて算出した。調査は10月末に実施した。(12:25)
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衣料液体洗剤を増産 花王５割、Ｐ＆Ｇ２割
花王やプロクター・アンド・ギャンブル・ジャパン（Ｐ＆Ｇ）など日用品大手が、衣料用液体洗剤の生産能力を2―5割増強する。節約志向から節水型洗濯機の売れ行きが好調で、これにつれて粉末洗剤のように溶け残る心配のない液体洗剤の需要が年率30％台で伸びているためだ。粉末洗剤に比べ製造コストも安く、拡販により収益力を高める。
花王は和歌山工場（和歌山市）の生産ラインを改良し、来春をめどに液体洗剤の製造を始める。既存の川崎工場（川崎市）とあわせ東西2拠点体制にする。設備投資は数億円規模で、生産能力を1.5倍程度に高める。和歌山では主力の「アタックバイオジェル」「スタイルフィット」などを作り、西日本向けの拠点とする。(07:00)
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ＪＡＬホテルズ、インド９都市に進出
日本航空グループのホテルチェーン、ＪＡＬホテルズ（東京・品川）はムンバイ、デリーなどインドの主要九都市に進出する。現地の複合企業、ディービー・グループと、ホテル設計から運営受託までの包括契約を結んだ。早ければ2010年から各都市で開業していく予定だ。
契約を結んだのはホテル、不動産、乳製品製造、通信事業などを手がけるディービー・グループのホテル事業会社、ディービー・ホスピタリティ（ムンバイ）。同グループは今後4年で、インド国内で10億ドル以上を投資し、ホテル事業を拡大する計画だ。九都市で展開するホテルの設計から運営までをＪＡＬホテルズが受託する。
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商社各社、投資意欲に温度差 Ｍ＆Ａ、金融危機で競合少なく
伊藤忠商事は20日、中国の加工食品最大手、頂新グループに20％、700億円を出資すると正式発表した。10月にはブラジルの鉄鉱石権益取得も決め、金融危機でファンドなどによるＭ＆Ａ（合併・買収）が減るなか、好調な業績を背景に存在感を高めている。ただ三菱商事や三井物産は投資拡大に慎重で、商社間には温度差も見える。
「中国での新しい事業基盤の構築と位置付けている」。伊藤忠の田中茂治常務は、頂新への投資がすそ野の広い事業に育つ期待感を表明した。(07:00)
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日本製鋼所、原発向け生産能力3倍に 300億円追加投資で新工場
日本製鋼所は20日、300億円を投資し、主力の室蘭製作所（室蘭市）の隣接地に原子力発電機器向けの鉄鋼製品を製造する新工場を建設すると発表した。現在500億円を投じて設備増強を進めているが、一層の需要の高まりを見込み追加投資する。計800億円の投資が完了する2012年3月期の原発向け鉄鋼品の生産能力は08年3月期末に比べ3倍の12基分となる見込み。
新工場では比較的小型の原発用部材の鍛錬、熱処理、機械加工の各工程を担当する。昨年決定した500億円の投資では加圧能力が1万 4000トンの大型プレス機の導入が中心。小型品の生産を新工場に集約することで大型プレス機の稼働率を向上させ、全体の生産能力を増強する狙い。石油精製用の圧力容器に使う鍛造品の生産能力も1.6倍に増える。
設備増強に合わせて、毎年40人程度の新卒採用と中途採用を実施していたが、今回の追加投資で上積みも検討する。
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貴金属買い取りのマックスガイ、北海道・北陸へ出店強化
貴金属買い取り専門店のマックスガイ（福島県いわき市、矢内芳則社長）は北海道と北陸への出店を強化する。従来は福島県や宮城県を地盤に店舗を広げてきたが、両県での出店が一段落したと判断。出店地域を拡大し、店舗数を現在の約50から2009年度中に70に増やす方針だ。
同社の展開する専門店「ザ・ゴールド」は、指輪など貴金属を使った製品を消費者から買い取り、地金商などに販売して利益を得る。店舗面積は70平方メートル前後で、主に郊外に出店。福島、宮城、新潟の3県と北海道に約10店ずつ出し、岩手、青森、長野の各県でも展開している。
09年度中に北海道函館市や室蘭市に進出し、道内の店舗数を現在の10から20に引き上げる。富山、石川両県にも来年5月をメドに出店する。出店地域は周辺人口20万人を目安に選ぶ。当面の設備資金は、東邦銀行を引受先に発行した私募債の1億円を充てる。
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早起き通勤、三文の得 混雑避けてポイント、賞品
東京メトロは朝の通勤ラッシュの緩和で、混雑時間帯より早く通勤した人に賞品を提供する。混雑が激しい東西線で設定した時間に改札を通過した回数に応じて、最高4000円分の賞品を贈る。電車が混雑すると定時運行に支障が出る。乗客に時間帯をずらすオフピーク通勤を促す。
12月1日から来年2月27日の期間限定で実施する。東西線で千葉方面から通勤する乗客で、南砂町―茅場町駅間のいずれかで降りる定期券を持っている人が対象。1万7000人の参加を想定している。
ＩＣカード乗車券「パスモ」か「スイカ」の定期券で、指定時間に原木中山―門前仲町駅の改札から入場すると点数を得られる。たまった得点に応じて商品券か、東京メトロが発行するクレジットカードのポイントをもらえる。ポイントは最大4000円分で、パスモに移行して同額を使える。
東京メトロによると東西線は同社の中でも最も込む路線。朝の混雑が激しい時間帯の平均乗車率は199％という。
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板橋組、再建へ事業譲渡 09年１月、東武資材の子会社に
栃木県南部を地盤とする建設土木業の板橋組（小山市、板橋幸雄社長）が経営再建に向けて、事業を譲渡することが20日、明らかになった。同社の株式の 40％を持つセメント卸大手、東武資材（同、森戸勝社長）が全額出資で設立した会社が事業や債務を引き継ぐ。50人いる従業員の雇用も継続する。事業譲渡は来年1月となる予定。
板橋組は1935年創業の老舗建設会社。公共事業削減などの影響で、ピーク時（93年）78億円あった売上高が08年8月期には約3分の1の25億円まで減少。バブル期の不動産投資の失敗などで膨らんだ33億円の有利子負債が経営を圧迫していた。
事業を引き継ぐ受け皿として、東武資材が10月に設立した小山建設（小山市）は資本金5100万円。社長には東武資材の毛塚均常務が就任、板橋組の板橋社長は代表権を持つ会長に退く。
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石破農相、「輸入国の立場」を主張 ＷＴＯ事務局長らと会談へ
石破茂農相は21日の閣議後の記者会見で、23日から訪問を予定しているジュネーブで、世界貿易機関（ＷＴＯ）のラミー事務局長やファルコナー農業交渉議長らと会談する際には「（食料）輸入国としての日本の立場が反映されるように努力する」と述べた。ＷＴＯ交渉が合意して農産物の関税が下がった場合には「短期的にいろいろな影響は出る。対策を講じていくのは当たり前だ」と指摘した。
ＷＴＯは20カ国・地域（Ｇ20）による緊急首脳会合（サミット）で、年内のドーハ・ラウンドの大筋合意に向けて努力する方針が明記され、閣僚会合の開催の機運が高まっている。関税削減率が例外的に緩和される「重要品目」の数について石破農相は「これまで8％と主張してきた。それを踏まえて交渉する」としたうえで、「重要品目の数を増やせば代償もある。総合的に日本の利益をどう確保するかだ」と述べた。(16:01)
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退職後の資金、日本は94％が「不安」 9カ国・地域で首位
ハートフォード生命保険は、日米や欧州・アジアの9カ国・地域に住む45歳以上の男女を対象にした「退職後意識調査」を発表した。それによると、退職後の資金が十分かどうか不安な人は日本では94％に上り、9カ国・地域で最も高かった。イタリアの93％、韓国の92％が続いた。米国は75％で8番目だった。年金や預貯金といった退職後の資金が「十分あると確信しているか」と尋ね、「あまり確信がない」「全く確信がない」と答えた割合を比較した。
老後の資金計画が「ない」と答えた割合は、日本が82％でトップ。2位のドイツ（66％）、3位のイタリア（64％）を大きく引き離した。同社は「金融市場の混乱で資金面の不安感は強まっているものの、日本では自分で運用して乗り切ろうとする姿勢が欧米に比べて弱い」とみている。
調査は8月にインターネットで実施。日米韓独伊のほか、英国、スペイン、台湾、オーストラリアの45歳以上の男女750人、計6750人が回答した。(16:26)
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国内漁業団体、マグロ漁船の減船を検討
日本のマグロはえ縄漁業団体が漁獲規制の強化をにらみ、来春にも減船する検討に入った。モロッコで開催中の大西洋まぐろ類保存国際委員会（ＩＣＣＡＴ）年次会合などで討議する漁獲枠削減案を水産庁は受け入れる方針。経営環境が一段と厳しさを増すのに備える。マグロ漁船の計画減船は1999年以来およそ 10年ぶり。
日本かつお・まぐろ漁業協同組合（日かつ漁協）は船齢20年の漁船で補償金約1億円、来年3月廃業という目安を示して減船希望を調査。冷凍設備のある大型船約230隻のうち、約60隻の減船希望があった。(16:01)
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遺言関連業務の受託、弁護士がＮＰＯ法人
弁護士が遺言書の作成助言、保管などを一括して請け負う遺言信託業務を手掛ける特定非営利活動法人（ＮＰＯ法人）が年内にも活動を始める。これまでは弁護士が個々に請け負ってきたが、作成から執行まで長期間かかることから依頼者より先に弁護士が死亡することもあった。同ＮＰＯ法人はこうした場合も、速やかにほかの登録弁護士に引き継ぐ。
ＮＰＯ法人の名称は「遺言・相続リーガルネットワーク」（東京・中央、松田純一理事長）。東京を中心に約100人の弁護士が登録、順次全国に広げる予定。弁護士が遺言書の作成助言や、実際に財産を分ける遺言執行を担当する。遺言書は同法人で保管する。
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運送会社役員の死体遺棄、元暴力団幹部ら数人を逮捕 警視庁
静岡県富士市の山林で2006年10月、東京都江戸川区の運送会社役員の栩野雅晴さん（当時66）の白骨化した遺体が見つかった事件で、警視庁捜査一課は21日、別の強盗事件などで起訴された元暴力団幹部、野崎稔被告（51）ら数人を死体遺棄容疑で再逮捕した。今後、殺人容疑でも調べる。
調べによると、野崎容疑者らは06年、栩野さんの遺体を静岡県富士市の山林に捨てた疑い。同容疑者は「暴力団関係者から依頼された」と供述、殺害行為も認めているという。
栩野さんは土地取引などで勤務先の元社長（71）とトラブルになっていたという。同課は元社長が暴力団関係者を通じて野崎容疑者らに犯行を依頼した疑いがあるとみて、元社長からも事情を聴いている。(15:25)
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「凶運のダイヤ」、仏王家の出身 盗難後、米博物館へ
【パリ＝共同】フランス国立自然史博物館は20日までに、米ワシントンのスミソニアン博物館が所蔵する「ホープのダイヤモンド」は、フランス革命中にパリで盗まれた「王家の青ダイヤ」（別名パリのバラ）をカットし直したものである可能性が高いとの研究結果を発表した。
20世紀半ばにダイヤ商人がスミソニアンに寄贈した「ホープ」は、着用した者の多くが不幸に見舞われたと言い伝えられる「凶運のダイヤ」。今回の研究結果で、革命に倒れたルイ王朝の悲劇がホープの来歴に付け加わった形だ。
69カラットの大きさだったとされる王家の青ダイヤは、フランス人旅行家がインドから持ち帰り、国王ルイ14世に売却した品とされる。青ダイヤを身に着けたとみられるルイ16世は1793年に断頭台で処刑された。
青ダイヤは1792年の展覧会で盗み去られた後、行方が分からなくなったが、フランス国立自然史博物館でこのほど、鉛で作った青ダイヤの複製品が見つかった。分析の結果、この複製品の中に45.5カラットのホープがすっぽりと納まることが分かったという。
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障害者雇用率、1.59％で過去最高 6月時点
全国の民間企業で働く障害者が今年6月1日時点で約32万5000人と過去最多だったことが20日、厚生労働省の調査で分かった。全労働者数に占める障害者の割合（障害者雇用率）も1.59％と過去最高。ただ景気減速の影響で改善にかげりが見え始めるといい、同省は「一層の採用を呼び掛けたい」と話している。
障害者雇用促進法は従業員56人以上の民間企業に、1.8％の法定雇用率の達成を義務付けている。6月時点で対象となる全国約7万3000社が雇用する障害者は32万5603人（前年比約2万2800人増）で、雇用率は1.59％（同0.04ポイント増）だった。
法定雇用率を達成した企業は約3万2800社で、達成率は44.9％（同1.1ポイント増）だった。企業規模別では、従業員1000人以上では雇用率 1.78％とほぼ法定雇用率に近い結果だったが、中小企業の雇用率は依然として低く、100―299人の企業では1.33％にとどまった。(07:00)
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フトコロに寒気到来！主要企業ボーナス支給額を公開
新日鉄１４万減、村田製作所１７万減
いよいよ冬のボーナスシーズンがやってきた。気になる支給額では、好業績を背景にこれまで大盤振る舞いをしてきた大企業で大幅減額となるケースが目立つ。中小企業も含めた民間企業全体で前年実績割れとなるのは確実な情勢で、この冬のサラリーマンのフトコロは、強い寒気にさらされることになりそうだ。
急成長する新興国向けの輸出が好調で、ここ数年、ボーナスでも羽振りが良かった鉄鋼業界。しかし、この冬は状況が一変している。
業界最大手、新日鉄の冬のボーナスは、昨年冬の実績から約１４万円（１１．６％）も減って１１０万円。原材料価格の上昇により、２００８年３月期の経常利益が減益となったことが響いた。業界２位のＪＦＥスチールは１万円（０．８％）減の１２０万円と、支給額で新日鉄を上回った。
エネルギー関連では、石油元売り大手の新日本石油が約９万円（１２．２％）減少する。同社は昨年冬のボーナスも約１２％減っており、厳しい冬が続いている。
東京電力も６万円（６．９％）減。同社広報部は「新潟県の柏崎刈羽原子力発電所の運転停止と燃料価格の急激な上昇で業績が悪化しており、賞与削減で収支の改善に努めている」と説明している。
エレクトロニクス業界では、京都の電子部品大手、村田製作所が１７万円超（２１．６％）の大幅減少となった。０８年３月期は増収増益だったが、０９年３月期は大幅減益を見込んでおり、７月と１０月に業績の下方修正を行った。「欧米の景気冷え込みで部品の需要が芳しくないうえ、円高の影響も出ている」（広報部）という。
多くの企業は春の段階で年間のボーナス支給額を決め、夏と冬に分けて支給しているが、電子部品大手のＴＤＫでは「半期ごとの業績を反映させている」（広報部）。同社の９月中間期は減収減益となっており、これがボーナスを直撃し、約１０万円（１２．８％）の減少となる。
昨年冬の支給額が３６％減だった日本航空インターナショナルの地上職。親会社の日本航空の０８年３月期は当初目標を上回る利益を上げたが、「１０年度までの中期経営計画を達成する責任がある」（広報部）として、この冬の支給額も５０００円（１．４％）減とわずかながら減っている。
【昨年１４７万円の任天堂は…】
“寒風”が吹きすさぶ企業がある一方で、支給額が急増している会社もある。
環境装置やプラント製造が主力の日立造船は、業績好調で約１２万円（１９．１％）増える。三菱自動車も業績好調で約１０万円（１８．５％）増。同社はリコール隠し問題で０４年冬のボーナスがゼロだったが、０５年以降増加を続けている。
兵庫県姫路市の鉄鋼メーカー、大和工業は１５万円（１４．３％）増の１２０万だが、同社によると「年間の支給額では前年と同じ」だという。今夏のボーナスを前年から減らしたが、海外子会社の業績が好調だったため、冬の支給額を増やしたとか。
高額支給で知られるゲーム大手の任天堂。昨年冬のボーナスは１４７万円だった。０８年３月期も大幅な増収増益。同社は業績連動型ではないが、この冬も高水準の支給が続くのか注目される。支給額が決まるのは１２月以降になる見込みだ。
【平均２．３％減】
業績がボーナスに反映される企業のサラリーマンにとっては、０９年以降一段と厳しさを増す。
ソニーは０８年３月期の業績が好調だったため、この冬のボーナスは増額されるが、０９年３月期の業績見通しは下方修正されている。トヨタ自動車も利益の見通しを大幅に下方修正した。ともに０９年春に決まる年間支給額が気になるところだ。
日本総研は、民間企業の冬のボーナスの平均支給額を前年の４１．７５万円から２．３％減の４０．８１万円になると予想。前年の２．８％減に続き２年連続のマイナスが見込まれている。
資源価格の高騰や輸出の減速、国際金融市場の混乱で資金調達がしにくくなったことなどを背景に、企業収益は大幅に悪化している。さらに人手不足感が急速に後退していることも、企業がボーナスを出し渋る要因になっているようだ。
ZAKZAK 2008/11/21
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厚生次官連続テロ…年金クレーマーをリストアップ
嫌がらせ電話やメール、事件後も１００件以上
厚生次官連続テロで、捜査当局は厚生労働省に対する年金問題などの抗議や苦情を寄せた中に犯人が含まれている可能性もあるとみて、脅迫的で特異だった“年金クレーマー”をリストアップし、一斉捜査に乗り出した。厚労省トップが狙われた背景には、厚労行政に対する不満もあるとみられ、捜査員を大量に投入し、犯人をあぶり出す。
厚労省は以前から年金局のみならず後期高齢者医療制度、労働問題、薬害問題など批判の矢面に立つ頻度が高く、日常的に苦情が殺到。事件直前も誹ぼう中傷がネット掲示板に多数書き込まれている。
特に、年金問題で批判にさらされている社会保険庁では、現在も「コールセンターがつながりにくい」などの苦情が殺到。関係者は「激高して『事件を起こす』『職員に危害を加える』といった電話があった事例は過去にあったが、実害は１件もない」と話すが、最近は若い世代にも「ねんきん特別便」が届くようになり、幅広い世代からクレームが寄せられているという。
今年４月以降は、厚労省の電話交換手が男の声で「厚労省を爆破するぞ」という脅迫電話を受け、警視庁に通報。庁舎内の不審物を点検したほか、各階のごみ集積所に施錠する対策が取られた。このほか、後期高齢者医療制度に関係する職員を名指しで「家族へ危害を加える」といった脅迫電話があり、当該職員の登庁を見合わせる事態が発生していた。
【犯行に周到な計画性】
事件から一夜明けた１９日にも、同省には嫌がらせの電話やメールが相次ぎ、「年金問題の報いだ」「おまえも同じ目に遭わせてやる」など過激な内容の中傷メールが１００件以上も殺到した。
厚労省への強い怨念は、その犯行手口からも十分にうかがえる。さいたま市の山口剛彦さん（６６）夫妻殺害に使われた凶器は、刃の厚い出刃包丁のような和包丁とみられることが判明。剛彦さんの傷口は１０カ所近くあり、最も深い傷は１６．５センチで心臓に達していた。２人を執拗に刺したことで刃先が鈍磨したとみられ、中野区で吉原健二さん（７６）の妻（７２）を襲った際は、別の凶器が使われたとみられている。
また、家族皆殺しを目論み、大量の血がついた靴で屋内を歩き回るなど強い衝動性がうかがえる一方で、２件目の犯行までに冷静に凶器を持ち替え、靴を履き替える周到な計画性が浮かび上がっている。
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ニセ医者生活３０年の男逮捕…年収１５００万円荒稼ぎ
スピード違反で小細工バレる
免許がないのに、３０年間、医師をかたり年収約１５００万円を荒稼ぎしていた６５歳の男が千葉県警に逮捕された。妻子をも欺く鮮やかな詐欺の手口。捜査官も「小細工しなければ発覚しなかったかも」というが、一体なんでバレたのか－。県警環境犯罪課に事件の詳細を直撃した。
－－事件の概要は
「無免許で診療行為を行った医師法違反（無資格医業）容疑です。逮捕したのは６５歳の男。実在する他県の医師になりすまし、２００７年１０月２２日－０８年１０月２７日、同県船橋市の診療所などで４－８８歳の男女１０人に治療を施した疑いがあります。でもこれは氷山の一角にすぎません。８０年ごろから診療所でニセ整形外科医師として勤務。カルテが残っている０４年からだけでも患者は延べ２４００人にもなり、約１５００万円の年収があったそうです」
－－どうしてバレた？
「ニセ医師のくせに、妙なプライドを見せてしまった。０５年７月に千葉県内の高速道路で５０キロの速度違反で県警に呼び出されたんですが、その時『警察に頼まれて検視に行く』と見栄を張ったのです。それで提出させた書類を確認すると真っ赤なウソで、医師免許の偽装も発覚。小細工しなければそのまま発覚しなかったかもしれません。妻子も知らなかった」
－－それにしても医療の知識はどこで得たのか
「もともとレントゲン車の運転手だったそう。独学と本人は言っているが、どこまで本当か…」
ZAKZAK 2008/11/21
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カースト制度の国インドで身分違いの恋は“命取り”
【パトナ（インド）２０日＝ロイター】自分よりも下級カーストに属する少女にラブレターを書いたインドの１５歳の少年が、髪を刈られて通りを引き回された上、列車に投げ込まれて殺害されるという事件が起きた。ビハール州の警察が２０日に明らかにした。
警察によると、登校途中に相手のカーストメンバーに拉致された少年は、髪を刈られた上、母親が慈悲を懇願する中、列車に投げ込まれた。
この事件でこれまでに、１人の男が逮捕され、警察官１人が停職処分となっている。
ZAKZAK 2008/11/21
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国内保険大手が“駆け込み寺”に…株売却、資本増強
「これ以上…」懸念の声も
金融危機が深刻化するなか、国内の保険会社が“駆け込み寺”と化している。経営不振の米自動車大手フォード・モーターは、保有するマツダ株を日本の保険会社などに売却。三菱ＵＦＪフィナンシャル・グループなどメガバンクの増資でも、保険会社が引き受けることになる。引く手あまただが、「こんなときばかり都合よく助けを求められても…」（損保首脳）と困惑の声もある。
マツダは１８日に、フォードが保有するマツダ株（発行済み株式の３３．４％）のうち約２０％を売却すると発表。マツダ自身が最大約７％を取得し、残りを約３０社の取引先が引き受ける。
自動車保険で関係が深い損保では三井住友海上火災保険、損害保険ジャパン、日本興亜損害保険が、生保では日本生命保険、住友生命保険が引き受ける見通しだ。
ある損保会社の幹部は「取引関係があるからむげにはできないが、引受先が約３０社もある以上、金を出したからといって特別に関係が強化できるわけでもない。うまみがある話ではない」と漏らす。
一方、金融危機の影響をモロに受けているメガバンクは一斉に資本増強に走り、生損保が有力な引受先となっている。
三菱ＵＦＪは約１兆円の増資を年内に実施。このうち３９００億円は１１月下旬に優先株を発行して調達する。
優先株の引受先は日本生命（１０００億円）、明治安田生命保険（１０００億円）、太陽生命保険（５００億円）、大同生命保険（５００億円）の４生保と、東京海上日動（５００億円）、日本興亜（３００億円）、あいおい損害保険（１００億円）の３損保。
みずほフィナンシャルグループは優先出資証券を発行して３０００億円規模の資本増強を準備しており、第一生命保険、明治安田生命、損保ジャパンなどの親密先に協力を要請している。三井住友フィナンシャルグループも４０００億円規模を検討しており、住友生命が優先出資証券を引き受ける方向。三井住友海上グループホールディングスや日本生命などにも引き受けを打診しているもようだ。
【生保サイド「望ましいわけでは」】
ただ、当の生保サイドは「迷惑というわけではないが、望ましいわけでもない」（生保関係者）と微妙だ。株価急落により、主要生保９社のうち８社で保有株の含み益が消失。残り１社も含み益を大きく減らしているとみられ、各社とも財務的な余裕があるとは言い難い状態だ。
豊富な資金を持つ大手生保ですら「（救済要請の）案件がきたら、『はい、そうですか』と受けられる状況にない。取捨選択は必要になる」（幹部）と話す。
これまでも銀行の増資を引き受けてきたため、「リスク管理上、これ以上金融株を増やすのは簡単ではない」と懸念する関係者もいる。
経営再建中の米保険最大手、アメリカン・インターナショナル・グループ（ＡＩＧ）が計画する日本やアジアの生保事業売却も問題を複雑にしている。具体的なスケジュールは明らかになっていないものの、１件あたり数千億円規模の資金が動く可能性が高い。買収を狙っている保険会社にすれば、余裕資金を残しておきたいところだ。
救済要請があまたくるなか、勢力拡大のチャンスも目の前にある。各社は難しい判断を迫られそうだ。
ZAKZAK 2008/11/21
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酸素カプセルは規制対象外…ドーピングでＷＡＤＡ回答
けがの治癒や疲労回復を促進するとされる「高圧酸素カプセル」について、販売メーカーなどが加盟する日本国際健康気圧協会は２１日、世界反ドーピング機関（ＷＡＤＡ）の検討委員会から「高圧酸素カプセルはドーピングの規制対象にならない」との文書が届いたことを明らかにした。
この問題で日本アンチ・ドーピング機構（ＪＡＤＡ）はドーピング違反の恐れを指摘し、北京五輪前に日本選手団へ使用自粛を求めていた。同協会はＷＡＤＡに質問状を送付し「９月の検討委で協議した結果、競技力を増進する十分な科学的データの証明がない」との回答を得た。ＪＡＤＡによると、ＷＡＤＡはモントリオールで今週末にも理事会を開催する予定で「まだ通達がなく、最終見解に従う」と述べるにとどまった。
日本オリンピック委員会もＷＡＤＡの見解に従う方針を示した。
ZAKZAK 2008/11/21
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誤認逮捕：無差別殺人予告で三重県警謝罪 別の男を再逮捕
三重県警は２１日、インターネットの掲示板に、三重県桑名市のナガシマスパーランドのプールでの無差別殺人予告を書き込んだとして今年８月２７日に偽計業務妨害容疑で逮捕した当時名古屋市在住、料理店店員、小平滋彦さん（３９）が事件とは無関係だったと発表、謝罪した。また２１日、実際に書き込みをしたとして同県鈴鹿市岸岡町、会社員、藤田拓也被告（２４）＝別の威力業務妨害罪で起訴＝を威力業務妨害容疑で再逮捕した。
調べでは、藤田容疑者は７月１７日午前４時半ごろ、小平さんが勤務先の店に置き忘れた携帯電話を使ってインターネット掲示板の「２ちゃんねる」に「今週日曜日ナガシマのプールで水着女を刺し殺します」「鈴鹿サーキットで刺し殺す」「（近鉄の）特急アーバンライナーに爆弾仕掛けます」などと書き込み、同ランドなどの業務を妨害した疑い。容疑を認めているという。
藤田容疑者は自分の携帯電話からも同様に鈴鹿サーキットでの殺人予告をしていたため、今月６日に同容疑で逮捕された。藤田容疑者は７月の事件当時、小平さんの勤務する店が入ったビルで警備員をしていた。
小平さんは１７日間拘置された後、処分保留で釈放されていた。倉谷守・刑事部首席参事官は「小平さんには大変ご迷惑をお掛けした。心よりおわびする。より慎重かつ適切な捜査に努め、再犯防止にも努めていきたい」とコメントした。
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メラミン：タイから輸入のクラッカーから検出
大阪市は２０日、菓子輸入販売会社「エヌエス・インターナショナル」（同市淀川区）がタイから輸入した「コーヒークリームクラッカー」（１袋１８枚入り）から、有害物質メラミンが検出されたと発表した。同社の検査で４～２ｐｐｍが検出され、同社は流通している約８２万袋の自主回収を始めた。タイ産食品からのメラミン検出は、国内で初めて。市によると、ただちに健康被害が出る量ではないという。
検出されたのは賞味期限０９年１０月６日（４万４４００袋が流通）の商品と、同１０月１０日（未流通）のもの。同商品は０６年９月以降、約１２６万袋が輸入されている。
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特集ワイド：この国はどこへ行こうとしているのか ドナルド・キーンさん
◇平常心で交流を－－日本文学研究家、ドナルド・キーンさん（８６）
玄関のドアを開けると、花の香りがした。白や黄のランの鉢植えに囲まれたドナルド・キーンさんは「どうぞ、お入りください」と、会釈をして迎えてくれた。
東京都内の静かなマンションは、このほど授与された文化勲章を祝う贈り物や電報でいっぱいだった。「でも、アメリカ大使館は何も言ってくれません。もし、私が映画俳優だったら関心を示すでしょうが、ハハハハ」
母国をユーモアでチクリとすると、優しい顔で続けた。
「受章に感謝しています。５０年以上前から日本文学を研究して、広い層の人に訴えたいと、なるべく分かりやすい言葉で書いてきました。日本語と英語でものを書いて、二つの国で読まれていることを考えると幸せです。ただ、１０年前だったらもっとうれしかったかもしれません」
と、おっしゃいますと。
「文化勲章に値する人間であることをもう一度証明したい。何か新しい作品を書いて、勲章をくださったことがよかったと証明したい。私は８６歳。１０年前だったらもっと自信があったのですが」。なんという向上心……。
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キーンさんは毎年、夏から年明けまでを日本で過ごす。「東京の夏は悪くないですよ」。しかし、この国の政治は立冬を過ぎてもムシムシが続いている。２代続いて１年で首相が代わり、民意を問う選挙は見送られた。閉塞（へいそく）感を吹き払う風が吹かない。一方、海の向こうではオバマ旋風。熱狂的な選挙の末、米国民は４７歳の黒人指導者を選んだ。
ニューヨーク育ちのキーンさんは１９歳のとき、人種差別の現実を見た。「（南部の）ノースカロライナ州で乗ったバスで、黒人は一番後ろの席だけで、前の席が空いても腰をかけることができなかった。それが嫌だった」。そのノースカロライナ州も今回、オバマ氏支持が多数を占めた。「大きい変革です」
キーンさんの思いを乗せた投票用紙も、日本から郵便で海を渡った。「どうしても投票したいと思いました、オバマに。私の良心の問題として。ただ、恥ずかしいことですが、大統領選への投票は６０年ぶりなんです。まあ、その間は、両方（の候補）とも嫌いだったり……」
「前回」は、太平洋戦争中にさかのぼる。１９４４年、フランクリン・ルーズベルト大統領（民主）が４選を果たした。２９年のニューヨークでの株価暴落に始まった世界恐慌に、ニューディール政策と名付けた積極的介入で対処した。「戦争」と「経済危機」という点で、現在の米国と不思議と重なる。
自著「二つの母国に生きて」（朝日新聞社）にルーズベルトへの思いが記されている。＜少年のころ、ルーズヴェルト大統領は私の偶像であった。言いようもない重苦しい不況の暗闇に、彼の演説が希望の光を放った。そして彼はいつも弱者、圧迫を受けた人々の味方であり、ファシズムへの抵抗をやめぬ人に見えた＞。オバマ氏への期待にも通じるのだろう。
父親譲りの反戦主義者だったキーンさんは、苦しんでいた。「１９４０年、ドイツ軍がオランダ、デンマーク、ベルギーを攻め、ロンドンに空爆がありました。次は米国だと言われていた。戦争は人間の最も悪い行為だと思っていました。その時、源氏物語に救われました」
当時１８歳。コロンビア大の学生だった。「アーサー・ウェイリーが英訳した源氏物語を本屋で偶然買いました。戦争が全然描かれていないし、悪い人物がいない。人間は美を探していた。自分の生活はあらゆる面で、美しくすることができると思った」
戦争から逃れられるわけではなかった。しかし日本に興味を抱いたキーン青年は、海軍日本語学校へ。そして、日本の文書を解析するハワイの部署に配属された。
「手書きの日記や手紙の専門でした。日記の内容の多くは、内地の間は模範的です。しかし、隣の運送船が米国の戦艦にやられた時から心配する調子が入りました。島に着いて食べ物がない、病気になったと。『これを拾うアメリカ人の兵隊は戦争が終わったら家族に日記を返してください』と英語で書かれているものもありました。途中で軍に取り上げられたのでできなかったが、返したかったです。日記には人間味があり、とても深く感動しました」
日本人捕虜に対する尋問もした。「名前や年齢、そして海軍が知りたいことは聞きました。大和と武蔵は見たことがあるかと。その後は、好きな音楽は何ですか、好きな小説家はだれですかと。敵対心は全くなかった。それどころか友達になりました」。なぜ、敵と友達になれたのだろう。「同じ人間だと思ったんです」
■
戦後、京都に留学した。京大助教授だった永井道雄元文相や中央公論社の嶋中鵬二社長のほか、谷崎潤一郎、川端康成、三島由紀夫、安部公房、大江健三郎ら日本を代表する作家たちと交際を深めた。「ごく普通の日本人と同じように付き合っただけです。みなさん、日本の友達を呼ぶようにキーンさんと呼んでくれました。そう、安部さんだけがキーン君だった。一緒にご飯を食べて文学の話をして冗談を言い合った。普通の対応でした」
「普通」が今もまだ日本人には難しいのだろうか。電車をめぐる笑い話になった。「英語のアナウンスで、田端を『た、ばあた』とか、巣鴨を『す、があも』って言うのを聞くと、えっ？て思う。普通に言えばいいのに。日本人が外国人に親切なのはいいけれど、日本語を理解できないと思いこんでいる。普通に付き合うというのが一番大事です」
米国を「自分が生まれた国」と呼び、日本を「精神的に育ててくれた国」と呼ぶキーンさんにかかれば、国際交流とは実に単純なことに見える。大事なのは「相手が同じ人間である」という信頼感と、「普通に付き合う」という平常心だろう。個人がそうであるように、国同士も付き合えないものだろうか。
現在の米国経済を問うと、苦笑いした。「経済のことは知らないんです。ただ、デパートに米国製はほとんどない。中国、台湾、韓国、グアテマラとか。安いところで作れば得をすると思って、米国の会社のものを売らなくなった。グローバリゼーションといっても、どこの国のためなんでしょうか。まったく不思議な時代です」
日本では、源氏物語千年紀のブームが続く。私たちは、時代を超えた名作から何を学ぶべきなのか。
「優れた文学の世界に入って、その美しさを感謝して喜びを感じるだけでいいのではないでしょうか。学ぶ必要はないし、教訓はないのでは。心を動かすだけで十分だと思います」。小春日和のインタビュー。諭す口調は最後まで穏やかだった。
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米シティ：身売りや事業の一部売却含め、生き残り策検討
【ワシントン斉藤信宏】経営不安で株価が急落している米金融大手シティグループは２０日、身売りや事業の一部売却を含めた生き残り策の検討に入った。複数の米メディアが同社幹部の話として報じた。合併や資本提携も模索しており、相手先としてゴールドマン・サックスやモルガン・スタンレー、ステートストリート銀行などの大手金融機関が候補に挙がっているという。
シティは金融危機などの影響で経営不安に陥り、米政府が公的資金による資本注入を行った後も株価は下落。２０日には前日終値比２６％安の４．７１ドルで取引を終えるなど経営危機が深刻化している。米紙ウォールストリート・ジャーナル（電子版）によると、シティは２１日にも緊急取締役会を開き、株価急落に対応した抜本的なリストラ策を話し合う予定で、身売りを含めた今後の経営方針も議論の対象になると見られる。
シティは１７日にも約５万３０００人の人員削減計画を発表したばかり。０８年７～９月期決算では４四半期連続の大幅赤字を計上。低所得者向け高金利住宅ローン（サブプライムローン）問題に絡む損失が６７５億ドル（約６兆３５００億円）と欧米金融機関では最大規模に膨らみ、株価は過去１年間で８４％も下落している。
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新銀行東京：不良債権、１７％に上昇 当期赤字は７０億円－－９月中間
東京都から追加出資を受けて経営再建中の新銀行東京は２１日、０８年９月中間決算を発表した。当期赤字は７０億円で、再建計画を３億円下回った。０９年３月期決算の赤字も計画通りの１２６億円を達成できるとの見通しを示した。不良債権残高は前期比４３億円増の３４８億円、不良債権比率は同４・３８％増の１７・０８％に上昇した。
貸し倒れ引当金は前期の３月期比６１億２１００万円増の３６０億５６００万円を計上した。自己資本比率は４８・５％と国内営業基準（４％以上）を大幅に上回り、財務体質についての健全性は維持した。
４～９月の新規融資実行額は計画比９億円減の１００億円で、うち約４０億円が中小企業向けという。本業のもうけを示す実質業務純益は５億円の赤字にとどまった。
金融庁は４月から新銀行に対して０５年の開業後初の検査を始め、１０月２１日に結果を通知した。今回の決算について新銀行東京は「検査結果を反映した」としている。【木村健二】
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ラスター爆弾：「最新型」も導入せず 政府方針
不発弾が市民に被害を与えているクラスター爆弾について、政府は、現有爆弾を全廃したうえで、欧州諸国が維持する「最新型」のクラスター爆弾も今後、導入しない方針を固めた。これで日本はあらゆるクラスター爆弾を保持しないことになる。人道面を重視したためで、代わりに子爆弾をまき散らさない単弾頭の爆弾を整備するため、約７３億円を来年度予算に計上する。
日本は、子爆弾を数百個まき散らし、不発率が極めて高い「旧型」や「改良型」のクラスター爆弾を４種類保有している。政府は１２月３日、クラスター爆弾禁止条約に署名する予定で、０９年度から廃棄方法の調査を始める。批准後は８年以内に廃棄する義務を負う。
ただ、禁止条約案では、子爆弾が数個と少なく不発率が極めて低い「最新型」は例外として保有が認められた。独仏などが生産しており、欧州諸国が導入するとみられる。
政府は人道上、不発弾による「副次的被害を避ける」ことを重視。最新型でも不発弾による被害が完全になくなる保証がなく、コストもかさむため、導入を見送り、子爆弾による被害の根絶を目指す方針を決めた。
同時に条約の規制による影響を「極小化」する方策を模索。今後、子爆弾を持たずＧＰＳ（全地球測位システム）によって正確に目標に誘導し、より遠距離から狭い範囲を攻撃するロケット弾などを導入する。
日本は、海岸線から上陸する敵の「着上陸侵攻」を、大量の子爆弾をまくことで「面的に制圧」するため、クラスター爆弾を配備してきた。条約案の採択後、防衛省や自民党内の一部から「廃棄する旧型に代え最新型を導入すべきだ」との声が相次いだ。しかし、現在は着上陸侵攻の可能性が考えにくく、「面的制圧」の効果を疑問視する見方もあり、必要性が低いと判断した。
禁止条約案は、ノルウェーなど有志国や非政府組織が主導する軍縮交渉「オスロ・プロセス」が５月、日英独仏など１０７カ国の賛成で採択した。
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周産期センター：６割が土日夜間当直１人 妊婦拒否は７割
産科救急の「最後のとりで」と位置づけられる全国７５カ所の総合周産期母子医療センターのうち、夜間と土日の産科の当直医が１人しかいないセンターが計４５施設と全体の６割に上ることが、厚生労働省の初の調査で分かった。０７年度中に母体の受け入れを一度でも断ったセンターは７割の５３施設。受け入れ拒否の理由に集中治療室の満床を挙げる施設が多い一方、診療可能な医師が不在とする施設も２割を超え、産科医不足が母体救命に支障をきたしている実態が裏付けられた。
厚労省は総合周産期センターの整備指針で産科医の２４時間対応を求めており、ＭＦＩＣＵ（母体・胎児集中治療室）が７床以上なら「複数による対応が望ましい」としている。
調査によると、ＭＦＩＣＵが６床以下のセンター５３施設のうち３９施設で夜間と土日の当直が１人、７床以上でも２２施設中６施設が指針に反して１人だけだった。妊婦の受け入れ拒否問題が起きた東京都の都立墨東病院と杏林大病院も、当時の当直は１人だった。
また、０７年度に母体の受け入れを断った理由（複数回答）は「ＮＩＣＵ（新生児集中治療室）の満床」が９３％と圧倒的で、５６施設は年間の病床利用率が９割を超えていた。ＭＦＩＣＵ満床による受け入れ不能は５９％、医師の不在は２３％だった。
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宇宙地図：３倍詳しい地図できた！ 天文衛星「あかり」データで
約７０万個の星や銀河をとらえた宇宙地図を、宇宙航空研究開発機構（ＪＡＸＡ）が１９日、発表した。日本の赤外線天文衛星「あかり」の観測データを基に作製した。映し出された天体の数は、従来の地図より３倍も多い。
赤外線のうち遠赤外線をとらえた地図は、中心の赤い部分が天の川。星が誕生する際、強い赤外線を発するため、天の川で星が活発に作られている様子が分かる。また、赤外線観測は太陽系から遠い天体ほど検出しやすく、遠い天体ほど宇宙のより初期に生まれたもの。このため、今後の解析で未知の天体が見つかる可能性がある。
ＪＡＸＡの山村一誠准教授は「この地図は、今後の天文学研究の基礎資料になる。初期宇宙で、どの程度の星が生まれたかを知るのに役立てたい」と話す。【下桐実雅子】
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