Alwaleed Buys Citigroup Stock as Loss Exceeds Buffett (Update2)
By Ben Holland
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Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Warren Buffett of the Gulf is taking a bigger hit from the credit crunch than the original.
Prince Alwaleed bin Talal was lauded by Time magazine as the Middle East’s answer to the Sage of Omaha after a 1991 investment in Citigroup Inc.’s predecessor helped make the Saudi billionaire one of the world’s five richest people.
This year, Alwaleed’s investments aren’t keeping pace with regional benchmarks, let alone Buffett. His Riyadh-based Kingdom Holding Co. has slumped 63 percent -- more than Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All-Share Index or Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. -- wiping out $13 billion in value. Kingdom today said Alwaleed will boost his Citigroup stake, his largest holding, to 5 percent, even after the shares fell more than 80 percent since Jan. 1.
“When people nail their colors to the mast in such an obvious way, if then it all blows up, then that’s very damaging to your reputation,” said Ken Murray, chairman of Blue Planet Investment Management in Edinburgh, who says he shorted shares in Citigroup last year.
Alwaleed and his companies are buying Citigroup shares because the prince believes they are “dramatically undervalued,” Kingdom Holding said in a news release. The combined stake stands at less than 4 percent after recent Citigroup share sales diluted the holding, Kingdom said.
“Prince Alwaleed is fully confident that Citigroup’s universal banking model and global franchise will make it a long- term winner in the financial services industry,” Kingdom said.
The announcement failed to halt Citigroup’s slide. The shares slumped 17 percent to $5.30 as of 10:10 a.m. in New York trading, extending this week’s drop to 45 percent on concern banks will post further losses next year as the economy falters.
A Billionaire’s Life
Like Buffett, Alwaleed, 53, built his fortune by investing in brand-name companies he considered were undervalued, including Apple Inc., News Corp. and Time Warner Inc. Forbes magazine estimated he was worth $21 billion in March, ranking him 19th among the world’s billionaires.
A nephew of the late King Fahd bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, Alwaleed stands out among more than 2,000 Saudi princes because he’s made money. After earning a bachelor’s degree from Menlo College near San Francisco, he returned to the Persian Gulf and parlayed an inheritance of less than $1 million into a billion-dollar fortune in the 1980s, mostly through real estate investments, according to Riz Khan’s biography “Alwaleed: Businessman, Billionaire, Prince” (William Morrow, 2005.)
Alwaleed’s arrival as a celebrity investor came with the Citicorp stake, for which he paid the equivalent of $2.98 a share after adjusting for stock splits, acquisitions and spinoffs, according to Bloomberg calculations. In the decade through 2007, the stock averaged $42.
$319 Million Plane
Unlike Buffett, who for years drove a 2001 Lincoln Town Car, Alwaleed enjoys the trappings of wealth. His garage contains two of everything -- including a pair of Rolls Royce Phantoms -- as the prince buys a matching model for his bodyguards whenever he picks a new car, according to Forbes. Buffett paid $31,500 for the home in Omaha where he’s lived for 30 years; Alwaleed spent $100 million on his 317-room Riyadh palace.
And when Airbus SAS put the world’s biggest aircraft, the A380 superjumbo, on sale last year, Alwaleed was the first private customer to order one. That cost him $319 million, and fitting out the plane’s interior may cost “several hundred million” more, Airbus said.
Also in contrast to Buffett, Alwaleed’s investments are underperforming in the credit crunch. The prince’s reluctance to exit positions may be one reason.
‘Never Sell’
“There are some assets I would never sell,” he told the U.K.’s Independent newspaper in 2005, citing Citigroup, News Corp. and the luxury hotel group Four Seasons Hotels Inc.
In another 2005 interview with Charlie Rose of the U.S. Public Broadcasting Service, Alwaleed outlined his criteria for buying stocks. “The return on investment in the coming five to 10 years has to be within our acceptable conditions,” he said. That means “at least 20 to 25 percent” annual returns.
Few investors, including Buffett, are making that kind of money this year.
Berkshire Hathaway fell the most in at least 23 years yesterday, dropping for the eighth straight day since reporting a 77 percent decline in third-quarter profit.
Still, the stock has beaten the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index this year, falling 41 percent compared with a 45 percent drop in the U.S. benchmark.
Those who bought Kingdom Holding shares when Alwaleed took his company public in a July 2007 initial share sale have lost 55 percent. The Tadawul index fell 45 percent in the same period. Alwaleed still owns 94 percent of Kingdom Holding.
Bargain Hunter
There’s every chance the prince will unearth fresh bargains in the current slump, says John Rossant, executive chairman of Publicis Live, which organizes World Economic Forum events in the Middle East and elsewhere.
When Alwaleed bailed out Citicorp in 1991, the New York- based bank “was very close to going bankrupt, the stock price was a fraction of what it is even today,” says Rossant, who has worked with Alwaleed since the mid-1990s and calls the Citicorp investment “one of the smartest of all time.”
“You’ve got to think, if you look over the equity landscape today, that there are similar situations,” he says. “If you’ve got capital now, and you have to assume that someone like Alwaleed does, he would stand to make a lot of money.”
Right now, he isn’t. Kingdom Holding has stakes in 15 publicly traded non-Gulf companies, according to its Web site. Only four have outperformed their national benchmark this year, according to Bloomberg data.
Those four are among Kingdom’s smaller stakes: it owns 1 percent or less of Hewlett Packard Co., PepsiCo Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Procter & Gamble Co., according to the Web site.
Jeddah Skyscraper
Alwaleed’s larger holdings are faring worse.
Kingdom holds 7 percent of New York-based News Corp., Rupert Murdoch’s media company, which has fallen 69 percent this year. Songbird Estates Plc, the majority owner of London’s Canary Wharf financial district, plunged 82 percent as tenants such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. went bust. Alwaleed owns 21 percent of Songbird, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Alwaleed is also one of two Middle Eastern investors racing to build the world’s first kilometer-high skyscraper in the Persian Gulf. On Oct. 13, Kingdom Holding announced plans for the Kingdom Tower, part of the $27 billion Kingdom City real-estate project in the Red Sea city of Jeddah.
Such attention-grabbing projects are under review throughout the Gulf, as oil prices plunge and borrowing costs rise. On Nov. 17, Nakheel PJSC, the Dubai-owned developer that’s Alwaleed’s rival to break the 1,000-meter barrier, announced it was “scaling back” some projects, without saying which ones.
“Real estate is bound to correct downward, and a lot of projects are going to get delayed,” says John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Saudi British Bank in Riyadh. “The region’s going through the final stages of what I call the ‘mine is bigger’ syndrome.”
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Short View: Confidence collapse
By John Authers
Published: November 20 2008 19:15 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:15
History is the only way to grasp what is gripping markets.
The yield payable on the two-year US treasury bond, which reflects trends in interest rates, is below 1 per cent for the first time ever. The yield on 30-year Treasuries, led by expectations of inflation, is below 4 per cent, at an all-time low.
Thus the bond market expects historically low interest rates in the developed world, which will fail to avert a protracted dose of slow growth and deflation.
Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year bonds is less than the dividend yield on the S&P 500 index for the first time in 50 years. Stocks’ superior potential to grow over time is now valued as worthless, swamped by the risk of further declines.
As for stocks, the S&P fell on Thursday to 776.76, equal – to two decimal places – to its lowest close during the bear market of 2002, before rallying. Falling through that level would be a huge psychological blow.
The price of crude oil fell below $50, to its lowest level since 2005, in spite of the widespread belief that world production is near its peak level and is set to decline.
In combination, this is an historic loss of confidence in the western economy. Why?
Data continue to show that the economy sustained a sharp jolt after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September. New US jobless claims, the highest since 1982, are the latest bad news.
And confidence in the financial sector, which has led the decline in the economy, sustained a critical new blow last week when the US Treasury secretary Hank Paulson said that the “Tarp” bail-out fund would not, after all, buy troubled mortgage-backed assets. That caused a renewed collapse in the value of those assets and the institutions holding them.
History will judge whether this collapse in confidence makes sense; it seems highly likely to judge Mr Paulson’s statement a mistake.
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Short View: Banking confidence collapse
Published: November 21 2008 02:08 | Last updated: November 21 2008 02:08
The five-year rally in US stocks that began shortly before the invasion of Iraq and peaked last October can now be dismissed as an aberration.
On Thursday, the S&P 500, the most important index of the US market, fell 6.5 per cent, dropping through the low it set in October 2002, and bringing it to levels it last saw in April 1997.
It is back to a level it last recorded a month before Amazon.com went public. Both the dotcom bubble and what is now known to be the credit bubble have burst – but there is no clarity as to where stock valuations may come to rest.
The bond market suggests we are in territory much more inhospitable than in 1997. The yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which reflects trends in interest rates, is below 1 per cent for the first time. The yield on 30-year Treasuries, led by expectations of inflation, is below 4 per cent, at a record low.
Thus the bond market expects historically low interest rates in the developed world, which will fail to avert a protracted dose of slow growth and deflation.
The yield on 10-year bonds is less than the dividend yield on the S&P 500 index for the first time in 50 years. Stocks’ greater potential to grow over time is now valued as worthless.
Why such a total loss of confidence in the US economy?
Data continue to show that the economy sustained a sharp jolt after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September. New US jobless claims, the highest since 1982, are the latest bad news.
And confidence in the banking sector, which led the decline in the economy, took a critical new blow last week when the US Treasury secretary Hank Paulson said that the Tarp bail-out fund would not, after all, buy troubled mortgage- backed assets. That sent the value of companies holding those assets tumbling, led by Citigroup, which is back to its level of May 1995.
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Swiss franc sinks after rate surprise
By Peter Garnham and Miles Johnson
Published: November 20 2008 11:32 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:03
The Swiss franc dropped to its weakest level in 15 months against the dollar after an interest rate cut from the Swiss National Bank surprised investors.
The central bank cut rates by 100 basis points, taking its three-month interest rate target range to 0.5-1.5 per cent. It was the third time in two months the SNB had eased monetary policy outside a scheduled meeting.
The accompanying statement indicated that the SNB expected inflation to fall below 2 per cent as early as the end of this year and acknowledged higher risks of a marked slowdown in economic activity in Switzerland next year.
Geoffrey Kendrick at UBS said the move signalled that the SNB was concerned about deflationary risks.
He said that while the immediate impact of the rate cut would be towards Swiss franc weakness, the resultant anxiety over the possibility that the central bank knew something about the economic deterioration that investors did not could push stock markets lower. This, he said, could ultimately boost the Swiss franc.
“With Switzerland originally considered as one of the better placed economies amid the current crisis, uncertainty would only add to market woes and continue to support safe havens,” said Mr Kendrick.
By midday in New York, the Swiss franc had fallen 0.5 per cent against the dollar to SFr1.2194, its weakest level since August 2007, and lost 0.6 per cent to SFr1.5269 against the euro.
Meanwhile, the yen advanced as heightened concerns over the global economy sparked a fresh wave of deleveraging across asset markets.
The yen benefits from increased risk aversion since many investments in riskier, higher-yielding assets have been funded by selling the low-yielding Japanese currency.
Analysts said one factor behind the deterioration in investor sentiment was concern over the effectiveness of the US Treasury’s Tarp (Troubled Assets Relief Program) rescue plan, which sent financial stocks lower.
Derek Halpenny at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ said the collapse in financial stocks had brought the issue of bank solvency back to the fore, which could have an impact on risk appetite and boost the yen.
The yen rose 1.2 per cent to Y94.68 against the dollar, climbed 1 per cent to Y118.50 against the euro and gained 2.2 per cent to Y140.02 against the pound.
The yen also advanced against the higher-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars, rising 3.6 per cent to Y58.78 and 2.6 per cent to Y50.56 respectively.
Meanwhile, the dollar gained 1.2 per cent against the pound to $1.4782, in spite of the gloom emanating from the US, and held steady against the euro at $1.2528.
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Fresh worries over Asia’s sliding currencies
By Peter Garnham in London, Song Jung-a in Seoul and John Aglionby in Jakarta
Published: November 20 2008 19:03 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:03
Emerging market currencies in Asia came under renewed pressure on Thursday, with the South Korean won and the Indonesian rupiah falling to their lowest levels since the Asian financial crisis of 1998.
Analysts said that fears over a sharp slowdown in global growth prompted a renewed downward shift in risk appetite. This drove wary foreign investors into repatriating funds from the region, piling pressure on local currencies.
Emerging market currencies were hit hard last month as interbank lending seized up. This had led foreign investors to sell emerging market assets as they scrambled for dollar liquidity. However, the announcement that the Federal Reserve had established currency swap lines with four emerging market central banks, including South Korea, helped ease liquidity concerns and pulled emerging market currencies away from their lows at the end of October.
But David Hauner at Bank of America said it was clear that the move was just a bear market rally and that the downward trend in emerging market currencies remained in place.
The Korean won plunged 3.5 per cent to a 10-year low of Won1,496.00 against the dollar as foreign investors continued to dump Korean shares. On Thursday foreign investors sold a record amount of Korean shares, pushing the main Kospi index 6.7 per cent lower. The Korean currency has lost 37 per cent of its value so far this year including a 13 per cent drop this month alone.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah fell on fears that Indonesia might become the next global victim of the ongoing turmoil. The rupiah slid 2.3 per cent to a 10-year low of Rp12,475 to the dollar, taking its fall so far this month to 13.6 per cent.
Financial instruments were indicating the market expects the rupiah to weaken another 12 per cent within the next month. Meanwhile credit default swap spreads over US Treasuries, an indicator of perceived sovereign risk, rose to 950 basis points. This compares to 510 basis points on November 4.
Fauzi Ichsan, of Standard Chartered Bank, said: “I reckon [the falling rupiah] is 80 per cent global factors and 20 per cent domestic ones. The main local issue is drying up dollar liquidity as demand is rising – but that’s happening across the region too.” Analysts say Jakarta’s refusal to give a full guarantee on bank deposits, unlike Singapore and Hong Kong, is prompting demand for dollars.
Elsewhere in the region, the Thai baht traded as low as Bt35.17 to the dollar, its weakest level in 20 months, the Philippine peso eased 0.2 per cent to 49.978 pesos while Taiwan dollar dropped 0.4 per cent to T$33.405.
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Reykjavik borrows $10bn to stave off collapse
By David Ibison in Stockholm and Alex Barker in London
Published: November 20 2008 08:56 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:49
Iceland had to borrow about $10bn on Thursday, roughly the size of its entire gross domestic product, to prevent its economy collapsing.
The move underlined the damage wrought by last month’s disintegration of the country’s banking system.
Iceland finally secured a $5.1bn (€4bn, £3.4bn) bail-out for its crisis-stricken economy, comprising $2.1bn from the International Monetary Fund and additional loans of up to $3bn from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, Poland and the Faroe Islands.
It also agreed to borrow £2.2bn from the UK government and €1.3bn from the Netherlands government which will be used to compensate depositors in Icesave, the online arm of Landsbanki, the collapsed bank.
The loans will expose 320,000 Icelanders to a brutal recession, soaring inflation and an enormous debt burden that will haunt them for years in the form of taxes, threatening to trigger mass emigration. Up to a third of the population have said they want to flee the island.
The huge rescue package and its damaging domestic effect mark the official end of a 17-year experiment in free market economics that transformed Iceland from a fishing-based backwater to a booming tiger economy and now to the humiliation of an IMF-led bail out.
The £2.2bn owed to the UK has been a source of acute tension between London and Reykjavik since Iceland’s banking system collapsed, triggering the worst breakdown in diplomatic relations between the two states since the cod wars of the 1970s.
UK treasury officials said yesterday that while exact terms of the debt financing agreement would be set over coming weeks, the acceptance of the principle of treating all creditors fairly was a significant step forward.
The IMF-led loans, which will be used to bolster Iceland’s foreign exchange reserves, clear the way for the country to refloat its currency, which is regarded as a crucial next step towards restoring its international credibility.
“It is imperative that the authorities move quickly to stabilise the currency and lay the foundations for economic recovery and a normalisation of financial flows,” said Paul Rawkins, senior director at Fitch Ratings.
The krona has lost about 70 per cent of its value since the crisis. Authorities are braced for a new wave of selling by foreign owners of up to IKr400bn ($3bn, €2.4bn, £2bn) of Icelandic bonds that could push it even lower.
The social and political implications of the crisis and the loans needed to bail the country out will be apparent in the months to come.
The government has already agreed to reverse its long-standing opposition to joining the European Union and adopting the euro as its currency. It hopes to start discussions early next year.
But frequent demonstrations on the streets of Reykjavik by disgruntled citizens against Geir Haarde, prime minister, and David Oddsson, the governor of the central bank, indicate that there could be pressure for political change in the near future.
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Basel outlines stricter limits for banks’ capital
By Peter Thal Larsen in London
Published: November 20 2008 19:20 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:20
Plans to make banks hold greater capital reserves and limit the amount they can borrow have been outlined by the world’s leading banking watchdog in an effort to prevent a repeat of the credit crisis.
The proposals from the standard-setting Basel Committee on Banking Supervision are an attempt to salvage a global regulatory framework for the industry.
The move comes after a string of state-backed rescues in the US and Europe as governments have injected capital into their banks in an bid to shore up confidence in the financial system.
The crisis has triggered calls from some policymakers to scrap the Basel II framework for global bank regulation, which is seen as having contributed to the crisis by allowing banks to operate with relatively low capital reserves.
However, some regulators believe that the Basel framework, which took nine years to put in place, can be salvaged.
The Basel Committee yesterday signalled that over the long term it would encourage banks to make provisions for bad debts throughout the economic cycle. This would boost banks’ capital reserves while also providing a brake on growth in new lending.
The watchdog also signalled it might introduce rules to limit the absolute amount of debt a bank can take on relative to its capital base.
This measure, known as a leverage ratio, had been fiercely resisted by European banks but was recently introduced by the Swiss regulator following the meltdown at UBS.
Nout Wellink, president of the Dutch central bank and chairman of the Basel Committee, has defended Basel II, arguing that the framework had only come into force in many countries at the beginning of 2008.
However, he acknowledged that the crisis had created the need for fundamental reform. “Ultimately, our goal is to help ensure that the banking sector serves its traditional role as a shock absorber to the financial system, rather than an amplifier of risk between the financial sector and the real economy,” he said in a recent speech.
Basel officials believe the new rules, details of which will be drawn up over the next year, would provide a basis for reestablishing privately owned financial institutions. However, they stressed that the Basel Committee had no intention of forcing through new measures until the crisis has eased.
“We’re not going to jack up all the minimum capital requirements in the middle of a crisis,” one said.
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Aerospace sector prepares for rocky ride
By Michael Kavanagh
Published: November 20 2008 19:48 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:48
British aerospace and defence companies have joined their manufacturing peers in pointing to a rocky 2009 for employees and investors, with job cuts announced at Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems.
Sir John Rose, Rolls-Royce chief executive, has become known in policy circles as a champion of British manufacturing competence in the face of competition from lower-cost economies. He set out a year-long programme of tough medicine for the aircraft engine maker as it faces a long-anticipated slowdown in civil aviation.
So far the company has set out specific plans for 140 job cuts at its assembly and test facility in Derby. But the supplier of engines and power turbines is seeking a headcount reduction internationally of 1,500-2,000 from a global total of 39,000.
If the cuts are applied proportionately across the globe, the British aerospace sector could be facing the loss of more than 1,000 Rolls-Royce jobs. The company employs 22,000 in the UK, including 12,500 in Derby.
News of the job losses will be unwelcome in the east Midlands, where JCB, the digging machine maker, is already extending job cuts because of a drop in demand.
Rolls-Royce said it hoped normal attrition of staff, voluntary redundancy and curtailing recruitment could help avoid the need for widescale compulsory job losses.
The company is backing a planned academy, focusing on developing local engineering skills, to be based near Derby. The academy’s main sponsor is JCB. Rolls-Royce said it would continue its “commitment to apprentice and graduate recruitment” as it planned beyond the downturn.
The question remains, how bad will things get?
Nick Cunningham, an aerospace and defence analyst at Evolution, said: “The job cuts of about 4 per cent is what big companies are doing anyway.” But he argued that a protracted downturn in aerospace could herald harsher cuts.
As a so-called “late-cycle” company, meaning it will be among the last to feel the pain from an aviation downturn, Rolls-Royce will need to plan for a protracted decline in aircraft deliveries from 2010, Mr Cunningham argued. It will also need to negotiate a decline of 15 to 20 per cent in the after-market, or maintenance, segment of its business in the coming year.
With many of its costs in sterling and revenues in dollars, Rolls-Royce put in place a robust hedging policy to protect against a stronger pound. Unfortunately, this means it will not benefit from sterling’s sharp decline.
Better news for Rolls-Royce is that its management is “operationally smart”, said Mr Cunningham, and by acting early and through flexible labour agreements, it should be as well placed as any rival to face the storm.
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Opec disarray as oil sinks to $50
By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London
Published: November 21 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 21 2008 02:00
The oil price yesterday sank below $50 a barrel for the first time since 2005 as the first signs of fractures within the Opec oil cartel became apparent.
Nigeria said it did not want to cut its production to try to stop the slide in prices because it needed high output to balance its budget, while Iran, Kuwait and others said they would support another production cut.
Odein Ajumogobia, Nigeria's energy minister, said it was not in his country's interest to cut production further, raising the likelihood the cartel could fail to achieve its goal of boosting prices by cutting output.
"We are in the process of [processing] our budget . . . based on an [oil] benchmark of $45 . . . If you cut the volume then it is going to affect your budget, so obviously we are not advocating a cut because it is not in our interest," he said.
Opec risks collapse if it is unable to act cohesively. The power of a cartel to boost prices depends on all significant members forgoing the revenue gain from selling more oil for the gain from the price boost that comes from withholding oil from the market. If one player cheats, the rest follow and the effort collapses, as it did in the early 1990s.
Opec members in October pledged to reduce their production by as much as 1.8m barrels a day. Though they have yet to fully implement that agreement, the group is considering a further production cut at its meeting in Cairo next week.
In New York, US oil futures prices plunged to an intraday low of $49.75 a barrel, down more than $3.50, and its lowest level since May 2005.
The drop came as investors dumped oil and other commodities on heightened fears of a protracted global recession and after Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's largest oil trader, told its clients it was closing all its trading recommendations in energy.
The options market priced in a growing likelihood that oil prices could sink as low $40-$45 a barrel before the end of the year, with the cost of insuring against such an event jumping overnight by as much as 90 per cent.
Investment banks such as Deutsche Bank and companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation have warned that oil prices could fall to $40 a barrel early next year as the credit crisis hits the real economy, with the slowdown spreading from the US and Europe into emerging markets such as China.
The slowdown is curbing demand for raw materials from oil to copper on a scale not seen in decades. Antoine Halff, of brokerage Newedge in New York, said: "Demand destruction today rivals that caused by the oil shocks of the 1970s."
The tone of a recent meeting of national oil companies, many of which came from Opec countries, was "panic", Fu Chengyu, chief executive of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, said this week.
All Opec members are struggling with the sharp drop in oil prices from this summer's record of $147. Ecuador, Opec's newest member, this week raised the spectre of defaulting on its loans.
Only the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Qatar can balance their external accounts in 2009 with prices below $50 a barrel, according to research by PFC Energy, the US-based industry consultant. Saudi Arabia needs barely more than $50, PFC said.
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Gem cuts back as diamond price falls
By William MacNamara
Published: November 18 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 18 2008 02:00
Gem Diamonds, the Aim-traded owner of a white diamond mine in Lesotho, has warned of operational cutbacks and a possible annual loss as the plunge in diamond prices takes its toll.
The shares tumbled 131½p to 213½p.
The miner will focus on the high-value Letseng mine and cut most exploration activity, reflecting a trend across commodity companies known as "high-grading" - or dropping everything but the most profitable operations to conserve cash as commodity prices fall.
Gem said yesterday that the average diamond sales price at Letseng fell from $2,512 a carat in the first half of the year to $1,557 in the third quarter and $1,382 in the fourth quarter thus far.
Although the value of Letseng's diamonds are far higher than industry averages, the 11 per cent quarter-to-quarter decline is an indication of the recent loss in value in the non-exchange-traded stones. Consumer cutbacks in jewellery spending are behind the fall, alongside a freeze in diamond banking that prevents traditional buyers from taking on stock in centres such as Antwerp.
Industry leaders De Beers and Alrosa have both started to cut production this month in response to falling prices.
Gem indicated it would mothball its low-margin Cempaka mine in Indonesia, curtail production at part of its Ellendale mine in Australia and cut exploration in Democratic Republic of Congo and Central African Republic. Such measures, it said, were intended to make the company profitable next year if diamond prices remained depressed.
But it noted its 2008 performance "will be significantly lower than our expectations in August . . . and could result in a loss for the full year." Such a loss would erase first-half pre-tax profit of $23.8m (£16.2m).
Glenn Turner, chief commercial director, joined other industry executives by stressing the fundamentals of the industry were sound, with demand continuing to outpace supply over the long term. "This is a glitch in an upward trend," he said. "Once the world's economies get back into equilibrium, the trend in diamond prices will pick up again."
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Canadian partner criticises De Beers
By William MacNamara in London
Published: November 20 2008 18:23 | Last updated: November 20 2008 18:23
The world’s largest diamond deposit remains undeveloped for no good reason, shareholders of a Canadian diamond company have claimed in a criticism of De Beers. The industry leader is the company’s joint venture partner in developing the enormous deposit in Canada.
Mountain Province Diamonds, a Canadian junior backed by billionaires Dermot Desmond and Harry Dobson, is seeking to either agree revised terms of its 12-year-old joint venture or initiate legal action against De Beers, according to people close to the company.
In 1995, MPD discovered the Gahcho Kue diamond lode near Yellowknife in Canada’s Northwest Territories. It is estimated to contain 47m carats of diamonds.
MPD signed a joint venture agreement with De Beers in 1997 under which the South African company was named project operator with a 51 per cent stake.
De Beers has since funded a standard series of drillings tests at Gahcho Kue but critics claim progress never gained momentum. Production will not start until 2012 at the earliest.
“The [MPD] board have been very frustrated over the years by perceived delays in pushing forward the project,” said Mr Dobson, the Scottish mining entrepreneur who owns 2 per cent of MPD shares. Frustration intensified “as we watched De Beers place in production two other operations in Canada that we think of as inferior”.
In July De Beers, which controls 40 per cent of global diamond production, opened two diamond mines in Canada in a sign of the Canadian diamond industry coming of age. It owns 100 per cent of both. The larger mine, Snap Lake, is close to the Gahcho Kue deposit and was tested, built and brought into production over an eight-year period from 2000.
Jim Gowans, chief executive of De Beers Canada, said De Beers had spent $180m exploring and testing Gahcho Kue in a clear sign of its commitment. But he said De Beers had much more information about the two mines it bought and developed than about Gahcho Kue, where the required test work took longer because of difficult conditions in northern Canada.
“These projects can take 10 to 12 to 20 years to bring into production,” he said. “Until Gahcho Kue is developed, Mountain Province will have no cash flow and about that I have a lot of empathy for them.”
However, he said De Beers managed and developed three sites in Canada and other sites globally, and so had different priorities from MPD with its single deposit.
Patrick Evans, MPD chief executive, said: “Litigation is always an option but it’s the last resort.” Long-term projections of diamond demand outstripping supply made developing large deposits essential, he added.
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Diamond dispute heats up in frozen north
By William MacNamara in London
Published: November 20 2008 18:17 | Last updated: November 20 2008 18:17
To reach the diamonds of sub-Arctic Canada, miners must drill through frozen rock in a desolate environment almost devoid of roads. A mine in the region can take a decade or longer to bring into production.
Yet when the process takes 15 years, investors in any climate might begin wondering what is going on – especially if the miner in question is De Beers.
The company has deeper pockets and more expertise than anyone in the industry. In the case of a diamond deposit the size of Gahcho Kue in Canada’s Northwest Territories, De Beers would seem to have an incentive to unearth the stones as soon as possible.
However, perceptions of De Beers’ power, and what the company does with it, are behind the dispute over Gahcho Kue as much as geology or budgets.
It has been 12 years since Mountain Province Diamonds entered a joint venture with De Beers to develop Gahcho Kue, with De Beers as project operator holding a 51 per cent stake.
But the bonanza remains at initial stages of development and the soonest it could reach production is 2012. Meanwhile, everyone in the diamond industry warns that no big discovery has been made in a decade, creating long-term expectations of supply shortages.
“This is a source of tremendous frustration for us,” said a shareholder of Mountain Province, which discovered Gahcho Kue in 1995. “At the heart of the [joint venture] was De Beers committing to a proper and timely development of the project, and, 12 years later, there has been nothing proper and nothing timely about it,” said the shareholder, who asked not to be identified.
Some shareholders say it is not inconceivable that De Beers, which in an earlier era stockpiled diamonds to prop up the price, is delaying Gahcho Kue to control the entry of so many diamonds on to the market.
De Beers dismisses such claims, saying the project was taking a long time because its economic viability was still not determined. The carat value of the deposit’s diamonds is relatively low, said Jim Gowans, chief executive of De Beers Canada, so more testing is needed to decide if it is economical to bring them out of the ground. “We’re excited about Gahcho Kue,” he said, “but we’re going to do things systematically.”
Mountain Province says the diamonds are worth more than De Beers’ estimates, and it disputes the rationale for delay. It is considering legal options to have De Beers dismissed as project operator.
The dispute is likely to end in settlement. De Beers enjoys less market share and room for tough tactics than ever before. Its posture in recent years has been conciliatory.
In October, De Beers settled a dispute with its joint venture partner African Diamonds, a junior miner. The company claimed De Beers, with a 71 per cent stake, was trying to delay development of the AK06 mine in Botswana to arrange terms for the diamonds to be sold through De Beers channels.
De Beers claimed its primary concern in requesting a project delay was unreliable power supplies.
In a compromise, De Beers agreed to start mine production on schedule but also won approval for the stones to be sold through Diamond Trading Company Botswana, its marketing arm, which is half-owned by Botswana’s government.
Threatening De Beers with lawsuits – as both African Diamonds and Mountain Province have done this year – is a sign of the reduced influence of De Beers as its share of global diamondproduction declines, according to one industry veteran.
The company under Gareth Penny, managing director, has taken pains to clean up its image. It has poured money into the Kimberley Process, outlawing “conflict diamonds” from strife-torn regions.
It has also spearheaded diamond beneficiation, or the sharing of diamond revenues with producer countries such as South Africa and Botswana.
De Beers’ handling of the Mountain Province dispute could change attitudes in an industry where negative perceptions of the company linger. But it appears less likely than ever to give Mountain Province an answer the junior company wants to hear.
“We are going to have to do a lot more work on capital costs to find an economical deposit [at Gahcho Kue],” Mr Gowans said.
Diamond prices are falling, he said, making Gahcho Kue’s cost effectiveness lower and further delays possible. On Tuesday, he told Reuters that De Beers Canada was cutting production by 10-20 per cent at its two fully owned mines in Canada.
De Beers, which has invested $180m in Gahcho Kue to date, has no intention of resigning as project operator, he added.
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EU urges action to exploit Arctic oil and gas
By Tony Barber in Brussels
Published: November 20 2008 15:10 | Last updated: November 20 2008 23:07
European Union policymakers called for a carefully managed international effort to exploit the Arctic’s oil and gas resources and said that its vast untapped reserves could enhance Europe’s energy security.
The European Commission demanded observance of the highest environmental standards and appealed for full protection of the rights of indigenous Arctic people.
The Commission’s initiative reflected concern about the risk of sharp rivalries among global powers in a region that is not governed by a specific international treaty regime and where no single country has sovereignty over the North Pole or the ocean around it.
According to the US Geological Survey, the Arctic accounts for about 22 per cent of the world’s undiscovered, technically recoverable resources, including 30 per cent of natural gas and 13 per cent of oil.
Scientists warn that the exploitation of these resources, if not properly managed, could damage a region where air temperatures are already increasing twice as fast as the global average and the polar ice is melting rapidly.
The Commission proposed that the EU engage in long-term co-operation with other countries with Arctic interests, particularly Norway and Russia.
Russia caused alarm in August 2007 when it planted a flag on the seabed under the North Pole, in support of a territorial claim on the pole and a large part of the Arctic first lodged in 2001.
Among western countries, Norway has submitted a similar claim. Canada and Denmark could follow.
The Commission’s report said: “Arctic resources could contribute to enhancing the EU’s security of supply concerning energy and raw materials in general. However, exploitation will be slow, since it presents great challenges and entails high costs due to harsh conditions and multiple environmental risks.”
Under the Commission’s proposals, new fishing in the Arctic would be banned until conservation and management rules had been established for areas where none are yet in force.
With the melting of sea ice opening up shorter trips from Europe to the Pacific, the Commission said it would be important to defend the principle of freedom of navigation.
The EU has a direct interest in the Arctic because three of its 27 member states have land territories there: Denmark, which owns Greenland, Finland and Sweden. The three non-European Arctic powers are Canada, Russia and the US.
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Untapped riches prompt fears of land grab
By Joshua Chaffin
Published: November 21 2008 01:16 | Last updated: November 21 2008 01:16
Long frozen both politically and geographically, the Arctic is rapidly thawing into another slippery terrain on which Europe’s twin desires to both preserve a planet in peril and secure a share of its dwindling resources are now playing out.
On Thursday, the European Commission made its most substantive effort to reconcile those competing agendas with the release of an Arctic initiative that urges nations to establish a better system of international governance for the region, to protect its environment and native people and to commit themselves to harvesting its resources sustainably.
However, the sheer abundance of the Arctic’s mineral wealth and the extreme fragility of its ecosystem will make that a complicated task.
This year, the US Geological Survey laid out some of the figures that are inspiring a frosty land-grab by governments and global energy companies. It predicted that the northern Arctic held some 90bn barrels of oil and a third of the world’s undiscovered natural gas, calling it “the largest unexplored prospective area for petroleum remaining on earth”.
The oil, more than 80 per cent of which was located offshore, was considered “technically recoverable” with current technology, according to the USGS.
“It is a region that is going to have a lot more attention,” said Jonas Garh Store, Norway’s foreign affairs minister, who observed in a 2005 speech that cold-war military calculations once governing the region were giving way to a scramble for its energy resources.
In addition to fossil fuels, the region also includes shipping routes and abundant fish resources, a scarce commodity that has become a regular source of strife among EU member states.
As the Arctic’s economic riches come into sharper focus, its environmental vulnerabilities also appear to be growing more acute. Last year it recorded its thinnest cover of summer ice on record. Some scientists predict that summer ice could disappear from the Arctic altogether by 2013, decades earlier than previous estimates.
That process not only threatens to raise sea levels, but could also accelerate global warming by releasing more carbon into the atmosphere, according to the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Those changes are already undermining the livelihood of the Innuit and other native populations.
Perversely, though, the ravages of global warming could make the region’s resources more plentiful and accessible than ever, opening up new shipping lanes and fishing grounds, as Joe Borg, the European fisheries commissioner, acknowledged last month.
“As the ice recedes, we are presented with a first-time opportunity to use transport routes such as the Northern Sea route. This would translate into shorter transport routes and greater trading possibilities, and will provide a better opportunity to draw upon the wealth of untapped natural resources in the Arctic,” Mr Borg said.
That, in turn, is bringing new players into the mix, including China, South Korea and Japan, which could complicate efforts to manage the area.
Mr Store, who consulted the Commission on its proposals, argued that new laws and diplomatic bodies were not needed to oversee the Arctic’s development.
Instead, he called for a greater focus on the Law of the Sea and other existing instruments.
He and other leaders are also citing the Arctic’s plight as they try to make their case for an ambitious agreement to reduce greenhouse gases at an international meeting in Copenhagen next year.
“The Arctic is a clarion call for the need to act on climate change,” Mr Store. “It is the canary in the coal mine.”
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Lukoil linked with Repsol deal
By Mark Mulligan in Madrid and Catherine Belton in Moscow
Published: November 20 2008 11:59 | Last updated: November 20 2008 17:17
Russian oil group Lukoil emerged as a possible investor in Repsol after one of its largest shareholders confirmed talks about the sale of its stake in the Spanish energy group.
La Caixa, the Catalan savings bank that controls 12.5 per cent of Repsol, said in a regulatory filing there had been “informal contacts” with possible buyers of all or part of its stake.
However, it added that “no concrete offer had been received.”
The bank was responding to Spanish media reports that Lukoil, Russia’s biggest non-state-owned oil company, was poised to take a 29.9 per cent stake in Repsol.
Speculation about the fate of Repsol has been rife since September when Sacyr Vallehermoso, the cash-strapped construction company, admitted it was seeking buyers for its 20 per cent stake in the energy group.
Last week, it emerged that Gazprom was also interested in buying the holding, although it denied it was in talks with Sacyr.
Sacyr, which paid €6.5bn ($8.1bn) for the stake in the 2006 bull market, is struggling under the weight of an €18.5bn debt load and risks breaching covenants on a €5.1bn bank loan taken out to fund the Repsol purchase.
This loan, in turn, is secured against the Repsol shares, meaning recent stock market turmoil has forced Sacyr to pledge additional assets to lenders.
The construction group is also close to agreeing the sale of ItÃnere, its toll road business. Sacyr’s drive to sell the Repsol stake has unsettled the Spanish government, which fears the divestment could lead to a full-blown takeover bid for the country’s only fully integrated oil and gas group.
Sacyr is seeking a large premium to Repsol’s current market value, meaning any buyer would want eventual control of the target.
Miguel Sebastián, the industry minister, said Repsol was a “strategic company and the key to strategic [energy] supplies in Spain . . . We will do everything possible to keep it independent and Spanish.”
Jose LuÃs RodrÃguez Zapatero, the prime minister, appeared slightly more open to a deal, saying: “We are talking about private companies. The government must respect the companies and negotiations for the incorporation of other shareholders.”
Repsol declined to comment.
The company has had its sights on Russia’s massive oil and gas reserves, and could use the stake to negotiate access to exploration and development sites such as Sakhalin Island.
Russia’s oil companies are struggling under the weight of the global financial crisis, lower oil prices and high Russian taxation.
Lukoil has asked the Russian government for debt refinancing of $2bn-$5bn, and said it could consider eliminating annual bonuses and other supplementary compensation.
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S Korea plans to lend $1bn to Vale
By Christian Oliver and Song Jung-a in Seoul and Rebecca,Bream in London
Published: November 21 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 21 2008 02:00
South Korea plans to lend up to $1bn to Vale, the Brazilian mining company, in an effort to secure a stable supply of iron ore for the country's heavy industry, the bedrock of Asia's fourth biggest economy.
Korea is following China in an aggressive pursuit of raw materials across the developing world, signing contracts to plant crops, dig mines and drill for oil. Such deals are attractive because commodity imports, made painfully expensive by the weak won, are bleeding Korea's coffers.
The state-run Export Import Bank of Korea said it would conclude the financing contract in the first half of next year. The deal, currently a memorandum of understanding, will only fund Vale's iron and nickel projects in South America if Korean miners get a stake.
"Through this agreement, we can take advantage of the know-how and network of this leading resource developer," the Korean bank said. "We expect our companies to participate actively in resource development projects in South America."
The deal will offer some relief to a metals industry depressed by the global credit crisis. Iron ore prices are falling and steelmakers face anaemic demand from manufacturers.
Vale has a relatively strong balance sheet, having raised $12bn through a rights issue in July, but it also has an ambitious programme of new mine development in Brazil, for which it will need to attract extra funding.
Korea imports 23 per cent of its iron ore from Brazil, predominantly supplied by Vale, the world's biggest producer. Australia supplies 68 per cent of Korea's needs.
Although steel demand has weakened in the past two months, steelmakers are keen to secure iron ore supplies in preparation for an expected market rebound in 2009 or 2010.
The Export-Import Bank of Korea could not immediately say which Korean mining companies would join Vale's projects or say where the projects would be, but it is expected that Posco, the Korean steelmaker, will play a role in processing the ore.
The bank said Korean companies were already working in 19 projects across five South American countries and highlighted the role of SK Energy in developing liquefied natural gas in Peru.
Vale has also had previous dealings with Korea. Steelmaker Dongkuk signed a MOU with Vale earlier this year to study the feasibility of producing steel slabs in north-east Brazil.
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Cambodia holds land deal talks
By Raphael Minder in Hong Kong
Published: November 20 2008 18:22 | Last updated: November 20 2008 18:22
Cambodia is in talks with several Asian and Middle Eastern governments to receive as much as $3bn in agricultural investment in return for millions of hectares in land concessions, according to a senior government official.
Some of the deals would be finalised “in coming months”, said Suos Yara, under-secretary of state responsible for economic co-operation.
The revelation comes as impoverished countries rich in fertile land and water such as Cambodia, but also nations in east Africa, seek agriculture investments from resource-poor but capital-rich countries.
Kuwait and Qatar were “very strongly interested” in securing more farming land, he said, with South Korea and the Philippines, which suffered from rice shortages this year, among potential Asian investors.
“Food prices have recently fallen but that really makes little difference because the food supply issue will be there for the long term,” he said. “With this financial crisis, we need to seize this opportunity to develop our farming and switch [foreign] investment from construction to agriculture.”
Kuwait has already agreed to give Cambodia loans totalling $546m (€436m, £369m) to develop agriculture, the second largest aid pledge ever received by Cambodia, after aid and loans totalling $601m offered by China last year.
This week, Daewoo Logistics of South Korea secured a landmark deal with Madagascar to grow food crops to send back to Seoul on a 99-year lease. Daewoo hopes to farm its Madagascar lease for free but is promising local jobs and infrastructure investments in road and irrigation.
Suos Yara would not detail the terms of the potential deals but said leases would run between 70 and 90 years. He did not say how much investors will pay for the leases, with the $3bn more likely in infrastructure investments than rent.
Phnom Penh calculates that Cambodia has 6m hectares available for farming, of which 2.5m are under cultivation. By comparison, the Korean deal with Madagascar covers 1.3m hectares.
Apart from boosting farming acreage, Suos Yara said the deals would make an equally significant contribution in terms of infrastructure and technology upgrades in a country that has emerged from decades of war and a 1970s genocide.
Last year, Cambodia produced 2.5m tonnes of rice, of which about 1.3m was exported, from a sector that relies on a single annual harvest and family-run farms. “With better technology and irrigation, rice production could double in some areas,” he said.
Cambodia’s farming push comes as the government faces an abrupt economic slowdown after averaging growth of 9 per cent over the past decade, as Korean property developers and other cash-strapped foreign investors start to shelve real estate projects.
Cambodia attracted about $3bn of foreign direct investment in 2007, of which 45 per cent was in real estate projects and 25 per cent in agriculture. Suos Yara said the land deals would help maintain foreign investment at such levels but with about half of the total coming from farming investments.
The country has suffered a food crisis, with the Asian Development Bank providing $35m in emergency food assistance last month. However, Suos Yara said conditions had returned to normal. “It was a distribution problem and not a food shortage problem,” he said.
While most of the potential investors were seeking to bolster their food reserves, Phnom Penh had also been talking to biofuel producers, including Indonesia, about ceding land for crops such as jatropha, a succulent plant becoming increasingly popular in the production of biofuels.
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New threat to 2010 mulesing ban
* Marius Cuming, Perth, and Darren Gray
* November 20, 2008
THE Australian wool industry's commitment to end the controversial practice of mulesing by the end of 2010 is under serious question, after a sharp power shift at the top of the wool-growers' industry body.
A new broom was put through the leadership of the industry's research and marketing body (Australian Wool Innovation) at the group's annual general meeting in Perth yesterday, with the result heavily based on the future of mulesing.
A faction that has concerns about the mulesing deadline won control of AWI, after four new faces were elected to its nine-member board to add to the support on the board it already had.
Mulesing is the controversial practice of removing skin from around the backside of young Merino sheep to keep them from being eaten alive by blowfly maggots. It has been widely used since the 1950s as an effective method of protecting sheep from blowfly strike, but animal rights groups have attacked its use since 2004.
A wide cross-section of wool industry groups agreed at a meeting in Sydney four years ago to phase out mulesing by the end of 2010, but the issue has remained contentious.
AWI's Brian van Rooyen stood down as chairman yesterday but was re-elected to the board. He told the meeting growers did not have to adhere to the mulesing phase-out but said the world's retailers, who had been threatened by animal rights groups, expected it.
"Retailers are not prepared to fight the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) at their front doors over the mulesing issue," he said.
PETA bought the issue to the world's attention in 2004 when it drew high-profile retailers such as Abercrombie and Fitch to boycott Australian wool.
But AWI has struggled to find a viable alternative, with most growers continuing to mules their animals with the aid of pain relief.
The inventor of that pain relief product, known as Tri-Solfen, is a newly elected AWI director. The product was licensed to Bayer Animal Health in 2006.
Meredith Sheil admits she may have a potential conflict of interest given her company, Animal Ethics, has commercial arrangements with pain relief products under development and has said she may have to abstain from decisions regarding products that are being developed for sheep.
Also elected to the board was Englishman Laurence Modiano, one of the world's largest early-stage processors, New South Wales stud breeder George Falkiner and West Australian woolgrower and stud breeder David Webster.
The AWI election result came after a long and hard-fought campaign over the future of the Australian wool industry, once the biggest-earning segment of agriculture in the land but struggling under a 10-year drought, depressed prices and wool-growers dropping sheep for cropping and cattle.
Sheep numbers at the end of June had plummeted to 79.2 million, the lowest since the 1920s.
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EU approves reform of farm subsidies
By Joshua Chaffin in Brussels
Published: November 21 2008 03:49 | Last updated: November 21 2008 03:49
European farmers will continue to see direct subsidy payments give way to a more market-based incentives after EU ministers on Thursday agreed to the most sweeping reform of the group’s agricultural policy in five years.
However, the shift, agreed upon after an all-night bargaining session, was more gradual than some governments had hoped, leading to expressions of disappointment from the UK, in particular, that the EU had not gone further.
“On the big items of reform this is a step forward, but I regret what has been conceded in order to secure a deal which will lead to some new distortions in the short-term,” Hilary Benn, the UK farm minister, said in a statement.
Under Thursday’s agreement, farms that receive at least €5,000 ($6,200) in annual subsidies will see 10 per cent of those payments shifted to rural development budgets by 2012 – twice the current level.
That fell short of the commission’s proposal for a 13 per cent shift by 2012. The UK had been calling for a far more aggressive increase, arguing that such payments distort trade.
Ministers also agreed to allow more flexibility in how member states spread their direct payments to farmers – something that opponents claimed could create backdoor subsidies.
Marianne Fischer Boel, Europe’s agriculture commissioner, praised the agreement, saying: “I’m pleased we managed to find a compromise which preserved all the principles of our original proposal.”
The commission pointed to other measures that it argued would free farmers from the shackles of Brussels-based production quotas and tie them more closely to the free market. These included an abolition of requirements that farmers leave fallow 10 per cent of their arable land and a 1 per cent annual increase in the milk quota until it is removed altogether in 2015.
Italy, a chronic over-supplier of milk, was one of the biggest beneficiaries, winning approval to push forward its entire quota increase from next year.
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Shipping avoids Suez on piracy fears
By Heba Saleh in Cairo and Roula Khalaf in London
Published: November 20 2008 19:04 | Last updated: November 20 2008 19:04
The Suez Canal, the international waterway crucial to Egypt’s economy, faces the threat of a dramatic decline in traffic as shipping companies shift to other sea routes to avoid Somali pirates.
AP MÞller-Maersk, Europe’s biggest ship owner, said on Thursday it had decided to divert its fleet of 83 tankers to the longer and more expensive sea route around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa.
The Suez Canal is Egypt’s third source of foreign currency revenues after tourism and remittances and earned Egypt a record $5.2bn last year (€4.2bn, £3.5bn). Even before the piracy threat, the Canal was facing a decline in traffic amid a slowdown in international trade.
The hijacking last week of a Saudi supertanker, the Sirius Star, loaded with $100m-worth of crude in the Indian Ocean has refocused attention on the threat of piracy by well-armed Somali bandits operating in the Gulf of Aden and off the coast of east Africa.
On Monday Odfjell, a Norwegian company, ordered its more than 90 chemical tankers to take the longer route around Africa. Another Norwegian group, Frontline Shipping, the world’s biggest tanker operator, said on Thursday it was considering whether to stop using the canal. Somali pirates were reported to be demanding $25m in ransom to release the Saudi supertanker. Saud al-Feisal, the foreign minister, said in London that Riyadh was opposed to negotiations.
In Egypt, six Arab countries that share the Red Sea held an emergency meeting to forge a united response to the upsurge in piracy. Officials said ahead of the Cairo meeting that it would consider establishing a warning system for ships and setting up a piracy monitoring centre. But Cairo appeared to rule out taking part in any naval force deployed to secure the sea route.
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Glitterati heed call to Dubai's grand hotel
By Simeon Kerr in Dubai
Published: November 21 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 21 2008 02:00
A star-studded cast descended on Dubai last night as the Atlantis hotel held the emirate's swankiest party in years, ignoring the growing sense of economic uncertainty.
Film stars such as Robert de Niro and Charlize Theron rubbed shoulders with business luminaries such as Sir Richard Branson and Dubai's elite, while Australian singer Kylie Minogue entertained the crowd before a huge fireworks display filmed by a passing satellite.
The mood of celebration at the $1.5bn (£1bn) hotel - and the launch of a palm-shaped artificial island, Palm Jumeirah - flew in the face of the accelerating gloom, as the global financial crisis hits the Gulf's most ambitious city-state.
Dubai's supersonic growth over the past decade has turned it into a trade and business hub. But it faces a severe test as the financial storm forces a correction in real estate prices and raises questions of tourism plans.
Citibank warned this week Dubai's exposure to real estate and debt made it the most vulnerable economy in the Gulf to the crisis. Real estate prices are falling for the first time since 2002 and analysts have expressed concerns at Dubai's debt, which reaches more than 100 per cent of gross domestic product. Bankers and analysts say that while many of the projects under way in Dubai will be completed, the ambitious emirate's insatiable appetite for bigger and more extravagant buildings will now be constrained.
Sol Kerzner, chief executive officer of Kerzner International, part-owner of the hotel with government developer Nakheel, said occupancy at the Atlantis resort of 80 per cent plus had satisfied his hopes. He conceded that the next few years would be tough, though he still hoped to hit occupancy levels of 70 per cent plus as more developed markets fell into recession.
Mr Kerzner also acknowledged that plans for expanding the Atlantis resort and apartments were on hold as funding evaporated. He said he saw great growth potential in Dubai, but whether the future is as rosy as the Atlantis's salmon-soaked walls will be tested over the coming year.
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US report sees shift of power to east
By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington
Published: November 21 2008 00:27 | Last updated: November 21 2008 00:27
The world is shifting towards a multi-polar system with a less dominant US and a more powerful China and India, and a “historic” transfer of wealth from west to east, according to a new US intelligence report.
The Global Trends 2005 report, released by the director of national intelligence on Thursday, says that while the US will remain the most powerful country in 2025, the rise of emerging powers and regional blocs will constrain its ability to “call the shots” across the world.
The National Intelligence Council analysis concluded the US would be ever more constricted by scientific advances in other countries, the expansion of irregular warfare by state and non-state actors, the proliferation of long-range precision weapons and the growing frequency of cyber warfare. “The multiplicity of influential actors and distrust of vast power means less room for the US to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships.”
The report said the international system prevailing since the second world war would be “unrecognisable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from west to east, and the growing influence of non-state actors”.
The NIC analysis warned such multi-polar systems have historically been more unstable than bipolar or unipolar ones. It added that while there were likely to be strategic rivalries over trade, investment, technological innovation and acquisition, it could not “rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries”.
The report comes a week after the G20 leaders discussed the financial crisis, in a meeting seen as underscoring the growing importance of countries such as China, India, Brazil and Russia.
It said the financial crisis had the capacity to accelerate many current global trends but concluded the world was not “headed toward a complete breakdown of the international system as occurred in 1914-18 when an earlier phase of globalisation came to a halt”.
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Russian market reformer dies at 50
MOSCOW, Nov 20 - Boris Fyodorov, who advised on economic reform before the collapse of the Soviet Union and went on to found one of Russia’s biggest investment banks, died on Thursday in London, a spokesman said.
He was 50. Fyodorov was educated in the socialist economics of the Soviet Union but went on to switch between two roles as one of Russia’s most prominent economic reformers and a financier with wide contacts in the City of London and Wall Street.
His academic credentials, thick horn-rimmed glasses and bookish manner, hid a savvy investment sense. Fyodorov had held a seat on the board of state controlled gas giant Gazprom since 2000.
He said he was backed by more than 7 percent of shares, though he never confirmed the size of his stake in the world’s biggest natural gas company. In 1994 Fyodorov founded one of Russia’s first investment banks, UFG, with Harvard-educated banker Charlie Ryan, who had begun his career at Credit Suisse First Boston and come to Russia to advise on market reforms.
”Boris was a shining example that one person could combine Russian patriotism and liberalism. He was fervently pro-Russian and fervently pro-market,” said Florian Fenner, who set up UFG Asset Management with Boris Fyodorov six years ago.
At Gazprom, Fyodorov played a major role in pushing for better corporate governance at the company, which in the 1990s was brought to its knees by corruption and internal disputes. ”Everybody talked about corporate governance but he was one of the only people who stood up for it, at extreme personal risk to himself, in the bad old days of Gazprom,” said Mr Fenner.
Convinced of Russia’s lucrative investment opportunities, Fyodorov and Mr Ryan steered UFG through the chaotic and sometimes violent Russian economy of the 1990s that was dominated by a few dozen rich businessmen, known as the oligarchs. By the time Vladimir Putin – who both Fyodorov and Mr Ryan had met in St Petersburg the early 1990s – was elected president in 2000, UFG was one of Russia’s most respected investment banks.
As the Russian economy boomed, foreign investment banks started to look for local purchases and Deutsche Bank bought stakes in UFG, finally taking control and turning UFG into its Russian unit.
More recently, UFG Asset Management formed a joint venture with the German bank. UFG’s signature offering was a derivative which allowed foreigners to indirectly hold local shares in Gazprom despite a web of Kremlin rules and government decrees – known as the ring fence – which restricted foreign ownership.
Mr Putin – and a then little known adviser, Dmitry Medvedev – vowed to bring down the ring fence despite vested interests inside Gazprom who wanted the restrictions to stay. The ring fence meant that shares in Gazprom, Russia’s most important company, were significantly undervalued compared to other energy companies and Gazprom’s foreign traded shares.
Mr Putin removed the ring fence in 2005, fuelling a surge in Gazprom’s share price and allowing UFG and its clients to earn handsome profits. By May 2008, Gazprom was worth $370 billion.
Born in Moscow in 1958, Fyodorov studied economics. As the Soviet Union crumbled, he advised Mikhail Gorbachev’s Politburo on economic reforms and was made Finance Minister in 1990. He later served as Finance Minister under late former President Boris Yeltsin.
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Judge orders 5 Algerians at Guantanamo freed
WASHINGTON, November 20 – Five of six Algerians held nearly seven years at the US military prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba must be released, a federal judge ruled on Thursday in a setback for the Bush administration.
US District Judge Richard Leon ruled from the bench after holding the first hearings under a landmark Supreme Court ruling in June that gave Guantanamo prisoners the legal right to challenge their continued confinement.
US President-elect Barack Obama has promised to close the prison camp after he takes office in January. Meanwhile, US judges in Washington are moving ahead with case-by-case reviews of about 200 detainee legal challenges.
Reading his ruling as the detainees listened in Guantanamo via a telephone hookup, Mr Leon said the US government failed to prove the five men who had been living in Bosnia had planned to travel to Afghanistan to fight against US forces.
He ordered the US government to take all necessary and appropriate diplomatic steps to facilitate their release “forthwith.”
There are about 255 detainees at Guantanamo, which was set up in January 2002 to hold terrorism suspects captured after the September 11 attacks on the US by al Qaeda militants. Most have been held for years without being charged and many have complained of abuse.
The Algerians, who were picked up by Bosnian authorities in October 2001, were sent in January 2002 to Guantanamo and remain held there as “enemy combatants” without being charged.
US President George W. Bush said in 2002 the six men had been planning a bomb attack on the US embassy in Sarajevo. But Justice Department attorneys said last month they no longer would rely on those accusations to justify the continued detention of the six men.
However they argued the Algerians should be held because they planned to go to Afghanistan in late 2001 to fight US forces.
In ordering the release of the five men, Mr Leon said the allegation was based on only one unnamed source and he did not have enough information to judge the source’s reliability or credibility.
“To rest on so thin a reed would be inconsistent with this court’s obligation” to protect the Guantanamo detainees from the risk of erroneous or unlawful detention, Mr Leon said.
He ruled the government did provide enough evidence that one of the detainees, Belkacem Bensayah, supported al Qaeda and planned to fight against the United States in Afghanistan.
The ruling was the second involving Guantanamo prisoners seeking their release and another Bush administration defeat.
Last month, US District Judge Ricardo Urbina ordered the release of 17 Chinese Muslims, members of the Uighur ethnic group, after the government acknowledged they were not enemy combatants. Their release has been stayed, pending an appeal.
Mr Leon, who was appointed to the bench by Bush in 2002, held hearings in November to consider the government’s factual basis for holding the six detainees. The hearings were closed because of classified evidence.
He was the first federal judge to hold a full hearing under habeas corpus – a long-standing legal principle by which people can challenge their imprisonment – in a Guantanamo case since the Supreme Court’s ruling.
The six Algerians were among the more than 30 Guantanamo prisoners who won before the Supreme Court. The five ordered released were Lakhdar Boumediene, Mohamed Nechla, Mustafa Ait Idir, Saber Lahmar and Hadj Boudella.
Nadja Dizdarevic, who is Mr Boudella’s wife, told Reuters by telephone in Bosnia, “This is the victory of justice even though it comes after seven years of legal struggle.”
She said US and Bosnian authorities must ensure that the five get back to Bosnia, instead of being extradited to Algeria, and must allow them to join their families.
Mr Leon said the US government can appeal his ruling on the five men, but strongly urged top administration officials to forgo an appeal that would take as long as two years.
Mr Leon also cautioned that the case was “unique” and that “few if any” of the other detainee challenges were like it.
The White House said it disagreed with the portion of the ruling ordering the five men must to be released, but was pleased that one Algerian was affirmed as an enemy combatant and can continue to be held at Guantanamo.
White House spokesman Tony Fratto said the Justice Department was reviewing the decision on the five Algerians.
Justice Department spokesman Peter Carr said the ruling demonstrated the need for Congress to adopt procedures that are fair to the detainee, but allow ”the government to present its case without imperiling national security.”
--------------------------------
Bombed facility likened to reactor
By James Blitz in London and Anna Fifield in Damascus
Published: November 20 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 20 2008 02:00
A Syrian complex bombed by Israel in 2007 showed strong similarities to a nuclear reactor, the United Nations nuclear watchdog said yesterday as it urged Damascus to co-operate with an inquiry into the plant.
Syria denies the site was a nuclear facility but the International Atomic Energy Agency indicated in a report there was strong circumstantial evidence to suggest it had been a nascent reactor.
"While it cannot be excluded that the building in question was intended for non-nuclear use, the features of the building, along with the connectivity of the site to adequate pumping capacity of cooling water, are similar to what may be found in connection with a reactor site," it said.
The agency said Syria "has not yet provided the requested documentation in support of its declarations concerning the nature or function of the destroyed buildings".
The report said the agency had found "significant" amounts of uranium particles at the site in June but not enough to prove the existence of a reactor.
The allegations are a diplomatic embarrassment for Syria, which is moving towards a rapprochement with the European Union.
A Syrian official said: "The IAEA has taken samples of the soil for two or three months but they have found nothing nuclear - no radiation - so if they want to look at other spots they are diverting from their main purpose . . . maybe they want to spy for some power."
The agency said its inquiries were set back by the killing in August of its main Syrian contact, an apparent reference to Brigadier General Mohammad Suleiman, a security adviser to Bashar al-Assad, the president.
----------------------------
Oxbridge accepts engineering diploma students
By David Turner, Education Correspondent
Published: November 21 2008 02:56 | Last updated: November 21 2008 02:56
Oxford and Cambridge universities on Thursday gave a boost to vocational qualifications by agreeing to accept candidates studying one of the six controversial new diplomas. Their decision to consider pupils who have studied the diploma in engineering is good news for ministers who have struggled to win acceptance for the qualifications – designed as a more work-relevant alternative to A-levels.
Geoff Parks, director of admissions for Cambridge and an engineering lecturer, said the advanced engineering diploma “may prove to be a better preparation” than the typical spread of A-levels a student would take before an engineering degree.
Mike Nicholson, head of undergraduate admissions at Oxford, said the decision would open up the university to engineering enthusiasts who wanted to concentrate on the subject while still only school-age.
“We recognise there are students who from an early age have identified they want to work in engineering and this provides a route for those who opt to study the advanced diploma in engineering to apply to study engineering at Oxford,” he said. Successful candidates could enter Oxford and Cambridge from 2010.
Ministers know the qualifications need to win the support of top universities to avoid being seen as inferior to A-levels, and therefore the province of less bright children. But the victory was bitter-sweet and is far from enough to ensure that diplomas will avoid second-class status as qualifications.
Both universities confirmed that the remaining five diplomas already being studied by pupils were unlikely to be suitable for any of their degrees. These include less academic subjects such as creative media and health and development.
Oxford and Cambridge also laid down rigorous conditions for candidates with an engineering diploma. Students will also need physics A-level and the diploma level 3 certificate in mathematics for engineering. This is narrower than maths A-level but has the virtue of being concentrated on maths, useful for engineering.
Meanwhile, ministers announced that 27 neighbourhoods in England had expressed an interest in setting up new higher education centres – which might be new universities or simply new campuses of existing institutions.
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