German investor confidences rebounds

German investor confidences rebounds

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

Published: November 11 2008 11:03 | Last updated: November 11 2008 11:03

Germany investor confidence has rebounded unexpectedly this month amid hopes that government and central bank action will offer some relief in the economic crisis.

The Mannheim-based ZEW institute said its “economic sentiment” indicator rose by 9.5 points to minus 53.5 in November. But the index, which is regarded as a guide to possible trends in economic activity, was still far below its historical average of 27.1 points.

“This doesn't mark the end of the financial crisis and a turnaround in the growth outlook,” warned Alexander Koch, economist at Unicredit. “Credit conditions have continued to tighten, especially in emerging markets, fuelling fears of a global recession or even a depression….This weighs heavily on the economic outlook for the export world champion Germany.”

Over the past year, the ZEW index had been on a steady downward trend. That was reversed temporarily in August and September. But the intensification of the global economic crisis after the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank in the middle of September, sent the index plummeting again in October.

The ZEW institute said confidence this month had been “raised slightly” by the German government’s financial sector rescue plans and proposed economic stimulus package. Cuts in interest rates by central banks around the world had also helped.

Wolfgang Franz, ZEW president, said that while financial market experts remained gloomy about current conditions they “seem hopeful that the collective actions of governments and central banks will mitigate the economic slowdown.”

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World Bank in $100bn aid push

By Daniel Dombey in Washington and Michael MacKenzie in New York

Published: November 11 2008 19:38 | Last updated: November 11 2008 19:38

The World Bank is set to provide up to $100bn in new aid to developing countries, amid fears that the spreading effects of the financial crisis could devastate poorer and middle-income states.

Ahead of an international summit on the crisis this weekend, Robert Zoellick, World Bank president, said it would be an “error of historic proportions” to ignore the interests of developing states whose projected growth rates have been slashed in the wake of the crisis.

As requests for aid continued to come in from around the world, he forecast the Bank would provide up to $100bn in loans over the next three years through its International Bank for Reconstruction and Development arm. He said the IBRD would increase loans available for developing countries to more than $35bn this year, up from about $16bn planned a few months ago. Last year, such aid totalled $13.5bn.

“You are seeing countries that had very good, sound macro­economic programmes – Mexico, Indonesia – that are in a position where . . . they are not at financial risk but they are worried about . . . getting financing,” Mr Zoellick said. “These are the types of countries – Colombia, others – that we are offering as much support as we can.”

Underlying his concern, Mr Zoellick said global trade was projected to contract next year for the first time since 1982, while developing countries’ growth, which had been expected to reach 6.4 per cent in 2009, was now projected to be 4.5 per cent. On Tuesday the MSCI emerging markets index fell 5.2 per cent.

The World Bank estimates that each percentage point decline in developing country growth rates pushes an additional 20m people into poverty.

The problems facing the world economy and renewed risk aversion among investors were further highlighted on Tuesday when global stocks fell sharply and the yen gained appreciably against the euro.

Mr Zoellick added it was particularly important to ensure that countries maintained social safety nets, infrastructure investment for the future, and were able to capitalise troubled banks and finance trade.

He said the World Bank would seek to “front load” a separate $42bn in aid available to the world’s poorest countries.

“Many of these lower and middle-income countries don’t have much fiscal space: much of it has been used up in trying to buffer the effects of the food price crisis,” said Eswar Prasad, an expert in the global economy at Brookings Institution, a Washington DC-based think-tank. “It’s a question of whether the financial crisis is going to make life desperate or just difficult.”

He cited the Philippines, Vietnam and sub-Saharan countries as being on the brink, while noting that petrol producers such as Venezuela and Mexico were suffering from the fall in oil prices.

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Bank predicts deep recession next year

By Vanessa Houlder and Norma Cohen

Published: November 12 2008 11:37 | Last updated: November 12 2008 13:38

The Bank of England on Wednesday unveiled the biggest single downward revision in its inflation outlook since it gained independence in 1997 and said it was “very likely” that Britain was already in a recession.

In its quarterly Inflation Report, the Bank forecast that national income could shrink by one to two percentage points over the next few quarters and growth would probably be flat by the end of next year. Consumer price inflation, which at its last reading registered an annualised rate of 5.2 per cent, will fall to its target rate of 2 per cent by the middle of 2009.

In remarks at a press briefing Mervyn King, Bank of England governor, said interest rates could fall much lower than their current 3 per cent and declined to rule out cutting rates to zero.

“We are certainly prepared to cut Bank rates again if that proves necessary,” Mr King said.

Chart: CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations

He also declined to rule out the possibility of deflation. However, he said “there is a great likelihood” that RPI inflation – a rate which includes a measure of housing costs – will turn negative next year

Pressed repeatedly to state whether he believed the Bank’s monetary policy committee, which sets interest rates, could or should have acted differently in the months before the worst of the financial crisis hit, Mr King declined to say whether he believed that any mistakes had been made or whether the Bank had learned anything new about monetary policy.

Chart: GDP projection based on market interest rate expectation

Mr King also appeared to offer a green light to broad hints from the government that it is planning to offset the recession with fiscal stimulus.

“The world has changed”, Mr King said, noting that the MPC last week cut rates by 1.5 percentage points, a move completely unpredicted by markets. “In these extraordinary circumstances it is reasonable [to use fiscal stimulus],” Mr King said. “I believe we are seeing that around the world.”

Analysts seized on the Bank’s projections, released after labour data showing unemployment soaring above 1.8m, as evidence that further cuts in interest rates were likely. Jonathan Loynes, of Capital Economics, said they gave “a very strong indication that the MPC expects to cut interest rates much further over the coming months”.

Ross Walker, of RBS, said the report was much more dovish than expected, with an “enormous” projected undershoot in inflation.

The pound came under renewed selling pressure after the release of the report, hitting a six-year low against the dollar and a record trough against the euro.

But the Bank warned that the prospects for economic growth and inflation were unusually uncertain, reflecting the “exceptional” economic and financial factors affecting the outlook.

It added: “There are also marked uncertainties over the extent to which the slowdown in demand results in spare capacity despite slowing supply growth, and the degree to which it feeds through into easing price pressures; the prospects for world commodity prices; and the likely scale and pace of pass-through of a lower exchange rate.”

The Bank envisaged a decline in output in the short term, driven by a sharp tightening in the supply of money and credit, subdued growth in incomes and past falls in asset prices.

But it projected that gross domestic product would begin to recover in the second half of next year, rising somewhat above its historical average by 2011. Activity could be stimulated by assumed reductions in the bank rate, a gradual expansion in credit supply, lower world energy and food prices, the lower levels of sterling and a continued expansion in government spending.

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China's CNPC says signed 3 bln dlr Iraq oil development deal

AFP

China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), the country's largest oil producer, said Wednesday that it had signed a three-billion-dollar deal to develop an oil field in Iraq.

The contract, signed on Monday in Baghdad, allows CNPC and another Chinese company, Zhenhua Oil, to develop the Al-Ahdab oil field in the province of Wasit for 23 years, CNPC said in a statement on its website.

Oil production is expected to reach 25,000 barrels per day in the first three years and expand to 115,000 barrels per day in six years, it said.

While output from the field will be exported, a portion of it will be used to fuel power generation stations nearby to alleviate electricity shortages in Iraq, it added.

The project, the first major oil development deal that a foreign firm has secured in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, revives a contract signed in 1997 that granted China exploration rights to the Al-Ahdab oil field.

After China won the rights in a deal then valued at 700 million dollars over 23 years, activities were suspended due United Nations sanctions and security issues following the US-led invasion in 2003.

Baghdad said earlier it had managed to change the previous joint venture contract into a mere service agreement, under which CNPC would charge a service fee of six dollars a barrel. The fee will decrease eventually to three dollars.

China's demand for oil has increased markedly in recent years, as its economy has grown at double-digit pace and its population of more than 1.3 billion people has grown richer.

The Al-Ahdab oil contract is not expected to generate any revenues for China except the service fees, but still offers an entry into Iraq's oil reserves ahead of Western majors.

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Bush resists $25bn aid for US carmakers

By James Politi in Washington and Bernard Simon in Toronto

Published: November 11 2008 20:08 | Last updated: November 11 2008 20:08

Hopes of quickly securing $25bn in emergency government support for troubled US carmakers have been caught in a stand-off between the outgoing Bush administration and, on the other side, congressional Democrats and Barack Obama, the president-elect.

As bad news about the health of the big three carmakers in Detroit multiplied during the past 10 days, the White House came under pressure to justify its decision to rescue swathes of the financial services industry while ignoring the motor manufacturers.

Shares in General Motors fell a further 13 per cent on Tuesday to a 65-year low of $2.92.

Democratic leaders in Congress have urged Hank Paulson, the Treasury secretary, to consider tapping on behalf of the motor industry the $700bn financial rescue package agreed last month. Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, on Tuesday asked Barney Frank, chairman of the financial services committee, to begin drafting legislation that would release the emergency cash for the industry.

“I am confident Congress can consider emergency assistance legislation next week during a lame-duck session and I hope the Bush administration would support it,” said Ms Pelosi.

Mr Obama made a point of singling out the troubles in Detroit in his first press conference following last week’s election. Even lobbying groups sympathetic to the administration on many issues, such as the US Chamber of Commerce, have backed a carmaker rescue, saying a collapse of the companies could cause the loss of 2.5m jobs next year.

But George W. Bush appears unwilling to cave in to the demands. Although the administration has not ruled out intervention, officials have been resisting the notion amid fears that it could open the way for a wide range of companies struggling during the economic downturn to come knocking at their door for help.

Some observers have suggested that a deal might be reached if the administration agreed to aid the carmakers in exchange for congressional passage this year of the Colombia Free Trade Agreement – a priority of the outgoing president.

Dana Perino, White House press secretary, acknowl­edged trade was discussed during the meeting between Mr Bush and Mr Obama in the Oval Office on Monday, but denied that any “quid pro quo” was offered.

A deal along the above lines would represent a high hurdle for congressional Democrats. The contentious pact was put on ice by Ms Pelosi in April, amid opposition from many Democrats and trade unions concerned about violence against labour leaders in Colombia.

Mr Obama sharply criticised the Colombia deal less than a month ago, making it harder to imagine that he would support it now.

Any assistance could take two forms: either unlocking part of the $700bn financial rescue plan for use by carmakers or making it part of a second stimulus package.

Separately, carmakers have been angered by the terms of a $25bn (£16bn) low-cost loan package approved by Congress last year to finance retooling plants to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles.

With public money markets all but closed to the ­ailing Detroit carmakers, the loans have become a crucial prop for their survival.

The department of energy published regulations last week governing the loans, but these have been met with scepticism in Detroit. The industry said none of the three big carmakers could meet the proposed test of financial viability.

“No one could meet the criteria,” said Steve Collins, president of the Automotive Trade Policy Council.

General Motors said it was seeking “appropriate modifications that may make sense to meet the spirit and intent of this programme”.

Chrysler said it had submitted an application for the loans, while GM aimed to apply before the end of the month. Ford said it was studying the proposed rules.

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Dubai business leader in cash probe

By Simeon Kerr in Dubai

Published: November 12 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 12 2008 02:00

A senior member of Dubai's business and political elite has been caught up in an investigation into financial irregularities in the emirate's property sector, the Financial Times can reveal.

A government financial audit department report identifies Mohammed Khalfan bin Kharbash, former chairman of Dubai Islamic Bank and its realestate affiliate Deyaar, in connection with allegations of financial wrongdoing at Deyaar.

Zack Shahin, Deyaar's former chief executive, and John D'Cunha, former operations director, are among a handful of ex-employees who could face trial as early as this month as the public prosecution finalises its case.

The official report sheds light on the year-long corruption investigation that has led to the detention of dozens of executives in state-backed companies linked to the Gulf business hub's booming property sector.

The continuing inquiry, the most sweeping anticorruption exercise in the emirate's history, highlights the ruler's determination to clean up the excesses of the seven-year property boom.

The investigation is all the more important today as Dubai tries to navigate through the global financial crisis and a potential correction in its property market.

Mr bin Kharbash, who was not reappointed to his United Arab Emirates cabinet position of minister of state for finance in February, has been questioned in connection with the Deyaar case, but has not been detained. Although prosecutors are preparing charges against Mr Shahin, they do not have enough corroborating evidence to charge Mr bin Kharbash. When asked to comment, Mr bin Kharbash said he "did not know anything" about the allegations. The public prosecution declined to comment.

The government financial audit investigation said it had uncovered "the use of influence and reciprocal interests" between Mr Shahin and Mr bin Kharbash.

Its report says that in late March Mr bin Kharbash repaid 33.4m dirhams ($9.1m, €7.3m, £5.9m) to Deyaar after the audit department discovered that costs relating to two real-estate projects owned by the former minister, Churchill Towers and Seif III, had been covered by Deyaar.

The more serious allegations of irregular payments are made primarily against Mr Shahin.

The report claims that many financial irregularities were carried out with the agreement of Mr bin Kharbash, but without the board's knowledge.

Mr Shahin, who has been detained for more than seven months, has denied responsibility, and lawyers close to the former chief executive say he will contest the allegations if the case goes to court.

The report says the Deyaar board took measures to correct some of the irregularities in its books once presented by the audit department's initial report in February.

The board set up audit, technical, compensation and pricing committees to oversee the awarding of contracts and staff bonuses, while also banning Deyaar from dealing with companies linked to board members.

Mr bin Kharbash resigned as chairman of Deyaar soon afterwards. He did not attempt to renew his three-year term as chairman of Dubai Islamic Bank.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai, has made clear in a recent statement that the emirate will not tolerate any officials abusing their authority for personal gain.

The rapid rise in property prices seen since foreigners were allowed to buy in 2002 has made many investors rich. But it has also opened the door for some officials to exploit their authority.

"This case should accelerate better corporate governance in the region," said Ewan Cameron, managing partner of law firm Linklaters' Dubai office.

While the UAE is perceived as less corrupt than most of its regional neighbours, foreign investors in Dubai's services economy are watching developments with interest. "In this economic environment, companies are more wary than ever about the reputations of institutions they deal with," said Mr Cameron.

How events have unfolded

March 2008 Mohammed bin Kharbash, chairman of Deyaar, resigns

April Zack Shahin, Deyaar chief executive, detained on allegations of financial irregularities at the property developer

June News emerges that British banker Charles Ridley has been detained in relation to allegations of wrongdoing at Dubai Islamic Bank, Deyaar's parent

June JPMorgan executive Omair Mooraj detained on allegations relating to former employer Dubai Islamic Bank

August Adel Shirawi, former chief executive of mortgage company Tamweel, and staff at government-owned Nakheel and Sama Dubai, detained as probe widens

October Former chief executive of Dubai Islamic Bank, Saad Abdul Razak, detained in connection with the Deyaar investigation

November Public prosecution again extends detention of Mr Shahin as investigation continues

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Major Dubai developer cuts 200 jobs

By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi

Published: November 11 2008 12:16 | Last updated: November 11 2008 12:16

One of the largest private real estate developers in the Gulf on Tuesday said it would cut 200 jobs due to the worsening global outlook, news which is likely to deepen concerns over the region’s property market, especially in Dubai.

Dubai-based Damac Group, which owns Damac Properties, said in a statement that it would cut 2.5 per cent of its work force, the first time a Gulf developer admitted to laying off staff due to market conditions.

“This continuing global slowdown will inevitably lead all companies to review their staffing levels and recruitment requirements,” Peter Riddoch, Damac’s chief executive, said in a statement.

There are mounting signs that Dubai’s real estate market is heading for a correction, which some analysts say could spread to other regional markets.

Property prices have soared across the Gulf in recent years, led by Dubai, which is often seen as a bellwether state for the region’s economy. But as domestic and international banks cut back on lending to projects, there are rising fears of a correction, or even a crash.

“I have little doubt that the United Arab Emirates is still better placed than many other nations to deal with the challenges ahead in the global market,” said Mr Riddoch.

The real estate and financial sectors led falls in the Dubai stock market, where the benchmark Dubai Financial Market General Index lost 7.29 per cent on Tuesday, the worst performance of all regional exchanges. It has dropped over 60 per cent so far this year.

Damac is not listed.

The neighbouring Abu Dhabi bourse fared little better on Tuesday, dropping 4.87 per cent, and Saudi Arabia’s Tasi exchange, the biggest in the region, fell 5.21 per cent.

Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain shed 2.98 per cent, 6.25 per cent and 2.74 per cent respectively. Oman’s securities market, the smallest in the region, slipped 1.99 per cent.

The credit crunch is forcing companies across the Gulf to reassess ambitious expansion and investment plans, and even cash-rich governments could delay spending on less-than-essential projects due to declining oil prices, according to local media reports.

The MSCI Gulf index has lost nearly half its value this year.

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Saudis in move to improve image of Islam

By Abeer Allam in Riyadh

Published: November 12 2008 01:50 | Last updated: November 12 2008 01:50

Saudi Arabia is sponsoring a two-day United Nations conference in New York to promote interfaith dialogue to improve the image of Islam as a religion that favours dialogue over violence.

The conference, which begins on Wednesday, is seen as part of the Saudi monarch’s efforts to promote a more moderate brand of Islam in a kingdom that has been accused of breeding extremism since the September 11 attacks in 2001. By sponsoring interfaith events, King Abdullah may also be hoping to advance the debate over radicalism within the kingdom.

George W. Bush, US president, and Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, are among those listed to speak. Shimon Peres, Israeli president, and Tzipi Livni, foreign minister, will also attend.

“The dialogue comes at a time when the world is criticising Islam,” the Saudi monarch told local media. “It is regrettable that some of our sons have been tempted by Satan or the brothers of Satan.’’

Last year the king met Pope Benedict XVI at the Vatican; earlier this year, he arranged a conference of Muslim sects at the holy city of Mecca and, in July, he presided over a gathering of Jews, Muslims, Christians, Hindus and Buddhists hosted by Spain.

The Vatican, however, is sceptical about the merit of the New York summit and concerned that the issue of religious freedom for Christians in Muslim countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, which permits no churches, will be pushed aside.

Cardinal Jean-Louis Tauran, who will represent Pope Benedict at the UN and heads the Vatican’s interfaith efforts, said in a recent Reuters interview that “too many” Christian-Muslim initiatives were sowing “a bit of confusion”. However, he also praised King Abdullah for his courage in acting in spite of opposition from fundamentalist religious leaders in Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom, the birthplace of Islam, adheres to the puritanical Wahabi Islam and fares poorly in international reports on religious freedom because it does not permit the open practice of other faiths and restricts or brands heretical other Muslim sects, including Shia, Sufi and Ismaili.

Some Saudis remain sceptical as to the local benefits of such a dialogue, however, particularly for the estimated 1.5m to 2m Shia living in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province. Jafar al-Shayeb, a Shia activist, says: “They fulfil the purpose of improving the image abroad, but locally, we need an internal dialogue with a clear mandate to eliminate sectarian discrimination.”

Human Rights Watch urged world leaders in a statement on Tuesday to pressure King Abdullah to end discrimination against religious monitories in the kingdom. “There is no religious freedom in Saudi Arabia,’’ says Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at the rights watchdog. “The dialogue should be about where religious intolerance runs deepest, and that includes Saudi Arabia.”

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Kurdistan: the other Iraq

By Anna Fifield

Published: November 11 2008 20:08 | Last updated: November 11 2008 20:08

In one of the oldest tea houses in Irbil, a cavernous room of hissing kettles that spills into the spice and shampoo shops of the souq, Ali and his friend Mohammad personify the Kurdish dilemma. Ali, a Kurd with a plush moustache dressed in the region’s traditional baggy open suit, sits on a bench drinking tea with Mohammad, an Arab electrical goods merchant who has driven from Baghdad in search of cheaper supplies.

Iraq election

Audio slideshow: The Kurdish share their stories and concerns with the FT’s Anna Fifield

“Kirkuk is Kurdish – the population is Kurdish, so Kirkuk is Kurdish,” says Ali, referring to the oil-rich city that lies just outside the northern Iraqi province but was historically part of Kurdistan. Asked his opinion, Mohammad looks around warily as the half-dozen tea-drinking Kurds stop their conservations to listen in and simply says: “I think our leaders know better than I do.”

This diplomatic answer belies the potential of Kirkuk to become the next big flashpoint in Iraq. For while sectarian violence has dropped sharply this year, stemming the slide into civil war and relieving pressure on the US military, the dispute over Kirkuk underlines the fragility of the country and the challenge that Barack Obama, the president-elect, will face in Iraq.

Below: A long search for statehood

Whether Mr Obama will be able to fulfil his campaign promise of bringing US troops home within 16 months of taking office will partly depend on what happens in the oil-rich city – and therefore on the ability of the US to mediate a lasting compromise over Kirkuk’s status.

Below: Tehran strengthens economic ties

But tensions are rising over whether the city belongs in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region or in Iraq proper. “For many Kurds, it has become a rallying point for an autonomous Kurdistan and for the rights of Kurdish people inside Iraq. And for many Arabs, it has become a rallying cry for the unity of the country,” says a senior US official in Baghdad. “The challenge is to get both sides to calm down and have a rational discussion.”

This will become a pressing foreign policy concern for the next US administration not just because the Kirkuk dispute has the potential to pit Arab against Kurd and provoke intervention from neighbouring states. It could also harm Washington’s relations with its closest allies in Iraq – the Kurdish authorities.

Kirkuk, together with other nearby oil towns, was “Arabised” by Saddam Hussein, who forced Kurds to leave and moved in Arabs from Iraq’s south in an effort to change the demographics. Now Kurdistan, whose people were killed by the thousands under Saddam, wants the cities back. “For us it’s not about the oil – the oil revenue will go back to the Iraqi people – it’s symbolic, it’s about the injustices that have been done to us,” says Fuad Hussein, chief of staff to Masoud Barzani, the Kurdish president. “When we think about the situation of Kirkuk, we all feel Kirkuki.”

Kurdistan, a fertile, rocky region where Iraq meets Iran and Turkey, already has several big oil deposits but several more lie just outside its current borders. The Kirkuk field is thought to have a production capacity of about 1m barrels a day. Under the constitution’s revenue-sharing formula, Kurdistan receives 17 per cent of all Iraqi oil revenue, but many Kurds think their economy deserves more. Some Arab politicians, meanwhile, are calling for the Kurds’ share to be reduced to 12 per cent.

AMERICAN PRESENCE:

Battle against time over forces’ status

The outgoing US administration of President George W. Bush is in a fight against time to agree a “status of forces” agreement with Iraq to set out new rules for American troops in the country and lay out a timetable for drawing down their numbers, writes Daniel Dombey.

According to recent drafts under negotiation, US combat troops would leave Iraqi cities by mid-2009 and exit Iraq altogether in 2011. The Bush administration insists that such a schedule should be “conditions-based” rather than setting dates in stone.

Washington had wanted to conclude the deal in July. If the two sides fail to reach agreement by the end of this month, the US could be forced to look instead for a renewed United Nations authorisation for the troops it has present in the country. The
current UN mandate expires on December 31.

But the context has changed following last week’s US presidential election, with many Iraqi officials expressing sympathy with US Democratic demands for a speedier drawdown.

Barack Obama, the US president-elect, campaigned on the promise that he would pull out combat troops from Iraq over 16 months. But he has emphasised he would consult his military commanders over the process.

Mr Obama has also allowed himself wriggle room by stressing that a “residual” force would remain in Iraq even after the 16-month drawdown is complete.

John Podesta, the co-chair of his presidential transition team, said at the weekend that such a residual force would be needed to carry out duties including counter-terrorism missions and training – activities that could leave many thousands of troops in the country.

Any agreement needs backing within the Iraqi government as well as in the Baghdad parliament. Democrats in the US Congress have also called for a vote on the matter.

The Kurdistan regional government is pushing for a vote to allow Kirkuk residents to decide whether they become part of the northern region. But the disputed territory has become so sensitive that Kirkuk will be excluded from nationwide provincial polls due to be held before January 31 as an Iraqi parliamentary commission examines the demographic changes that have taken place there. It is due to report back by March.

Rochdi Younsi, Middle East analyst at the Eurasia Group think-tank, says the electoral delay benefits the Kurds, who will retain control over the disputed areas during the deadlock. “Unless there is a concrete international effort to address the Kirkuk question, the risk of instability in the northern part of Iraq will heighten and the dispute among various sectarian groups claiming historical ownership of the city will erupt again,” Mr Younsi wrote recently.

The disputes have stoked ethnic tensions in northern Iraq. Kurdish troops, known as peshmerga, have reportedly moved beyond the boundaries of the Kurdistan region and into ethnically mixed areas, erecting Kurdish flags at checkpoints in acts that worry Arab residents of these areas.

Some diplomats in Irbil question suggestions of any land grab, saying peshmerga have been patrolling outside the region’s boundaries for some time. Mr Hussein, the president’s aide, says that Kurds simply serve in the national security forces. He characterises the common view as: “When a Kurd is in the police, he is a peshmerga, but when an Arab is there, he is an Iraqi soldier.”

The United Nations has suggested giving 32 per cent of the Kirkuk council to Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmen, leaving 4 per cent for Christians. Kurdish factions would also get the first pick for governor, deputy governor, and head of the provincial council.

But Kurds oppose any power-sharing arrangement that would not reflect what they believe is their majority. Kurdish officials are acutely aware of the issue’s potential to explode. “We have made a lot of concessions for the sake of greater Iraq but now, instead of supporting us, some people are trying to blame the Kurds for the problem remaining unsolved,” says Falah Mustafa, head of the department of foreign relations.

Kurdish leaders have long held up their region as a role model for the rest of Iraq. It has functioning democratic institutions, the government is relatively secular and its economy is ticking over. Irbil became a partner in the US-backed central government in Baghdad following the 2003 invasion of Iraq – the national president, Jalal Talabani, is Kurdish – and the US wanted to champion Kurdistan as an example of how democracy could be made to work in the Middle East.

But, five years after the invasion, Kurds are feeling short-changed by the Bush administration, which they say has not sufficiently rewarded them for their support. “They have done nothing for us,” says one senior Kurdish official, calling for Washington to encourage American companies to invest. “We are the success story of the US in Iraq. All of Iraq could be like us.”

Washington cites a lack of democratic development and endemic corruption as threats for the future of Kurdistan. “A lot of people in Baghdad are looking at Kurdistan not as a model for the future but for the mistakes they have to avoid,” says one senior American official in Baghdad. The Kurds, he adds, are “without a doubt . . . in the best position in their history. The big question among Kurds right now is, what next for us?”

-...Iraq President Jalal Talabani (R) and Massud Barzani (L), president of the autonomous Kurdish administration of Iraq, arrive on October 6, 2008 at the Salaheddin resort, 10 kms north of Arbil. The rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on Monday claimed it had the dead bodies of two Turkish soldiers killed during a weekend clash in the mountainous southeast of Turkey. AFP PHOTO/SAFIN HAMED
Massoud Barzani (left) with Jalal Talabani

The way that Irbil exercised its authority in Kirkuk has not been encouraging. Analysts say that the Kurdish government was given an opportunity to prove its ability to govern when the US in effect handed them control of the city in 2003. But the Kurdish authorities sidelined the Arab and Turkmen minorities rather than bringing them into the fold.

The extent of corruption has undermined confidence in the Kurdish parties ruling the north. Ordinary Kurds privately complain that, to succeed, they must belong to one of the “two circles” – that revolving around the Talabani family and their Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, or that associated with the Barzanis and the Kurdistan Democratic party.

The two families largely control business and politics in the region, offering preferential treatment for their relatives and allies. “Some people are living the high life but other people are so desperate,” Ali says in the tea shop. “Kurds don’t like it but what can we do about it?”

So sensitive has the issue become, even foreigners know where the red lines are. One British businessman working in Irbil becomes visibly angry when asked about corruption. “Why do you ask such questions?” he asks, his voice rising several decibels. “These kinds of questions can create a lot of problems for us.”

The government says it will introduce laws and educational programmes to tackle the problem. But Karam Rahim, editor of Hawlati, the region’s biggest independent paper, suggests the US could have an influence when provincial and regional parliamentary elections are due to be held.

“We thought that the Americans would make our government more democratic and more transparent,” says Mr Rahim. “The US must choose between two options – they can support Talabani and Barzani, or they can support the Kurdish people.”

TEHRAN STRENGTHENS ECONOMIC TIES

By backing Shia groups, Iran has long exerted influence over Iraqi politics. But the parties of Iraqi Kurdistan have also been allies of Tehran, whose reach is growing. “There is a lot of concern about Iran and Iran’s interests in Kurdistan,” says one US official.

Of the $7bn (£4.5bn, €5.6bn) in goods that Iran sent to Iraq last year, about $1.2bn-worth was destined for Kurdistan, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency. The figure is projected to rise to $3bn this year. Two of the three transit routes between Iran and Iraq are in Iraqi Kurdistan. Flights between Irbil and Urumia, capital of the Iranian province of Western Azerbaijan, are set to begin soon.

The US accuses Tehran of sending arms into Iraq, which Iran denies. Kurdish officials say they welcome the right involvement. “If they can help the people of Iraq, then that’s one issue,” says Falah Mustafa, head of the department for foreign relations. “But if they meddle in Iraqi affairs, we don’t believe that is in keeping with our policies of non-interference.”

A LONG SEARCH FOR STATEHOOD

● An estimated 15m to 20m Kurds, a largely Sunni Muslim people, live in the area straddling Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey and Armenia.


● Iraqi Kurdistan – slightly larger than the Netherlands and with a population of 4m – enjoys relative economic stability, helped by investment in construction and oil.


● Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons against Iraqi Kurds in retaliation for their support of Iran during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.

● After the 1991 Gulf war, Iraqi Kurds gained significant autonomy; this was later formalised under Iraq’s 2005 constitution.


● Rivalry between the Kurdish Democratic party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan led to civil war in the mid-1990s. In 1998 the two sides came to a power-sharing agreement.


● Kurdistan is a cause of friction between Iraq and Turkey, which has carried out military raids on northern Iraq against the separatist Kurdish Workers’ party (PKK).

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Ballet dancers on UK’s most-wanted list

By Andrew Taylor, Employment Correspondent

Published: November 11 2008 13:17 | Last updated: November 12 2008 00:12

Sheep shearers, ballet dancers, maths teachers, geologists, chemical engineers, racehorse exercisers, physicists and biologists have been placed on Britain’s most wanted list under a new immigration points system, the Home Office announced on Tuesday.

The scheme is designed to stem the inflow of low- skilled workers from outside the European Union and give preference to entrepreneurs, financial high-flyers and professionals such as scientists and engineers.

The first stage, for highly skilled workers, was introduced at the end of February. The next stage for tier II levels skills is due to be launched on November 27. Only workers in industries with skill shortages will be allowed in under the rules.

As a result, the number of jobs available to non-EU workers would fall from 1m to just under 800,000, said Phil Woolas, the immigration minister.

Care homes, however, warned that their fees would have to rise steeply and some homes would be forced to close as a result of the restrictions on the number of overseas workers they will be allowed to hire.

Under the new rules, care workers from outside the EU will be allowed to work in the UK only if they earn more than £8.80 an hour. Peter Carter, general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, said: “These changes are going to have a huge impact on the care-home sector, which has become heavily reliant on overseas nurses and care workers.

“The new rules mean that many independent care providers will end up poaching much-needed NHS staff because the system is making it harder and harder to recruit from outside Europe.

“With 180,000 nurses in the UK due to retire within a decade, the NHS is already facing a serious staff shortage over the coming years.”

Jeanetta Laurence, assistant director of the Royal Ballet, said that top ballet companies such as international banks and top football clubs needed to recruit the best talent from round the world. “We would prefer to find home grown talent, but I am afraid that is not always possible,” she said.

Rupert Arnold, chief executive of the National Trainers Federation, said there were insufficient British youngsters who were small, light enough and sufficiently athletic to provide all the exercise riders needed by the racing industry.

Other employment areas with skill shortages in which migrants will be allowed to apply for jobs include frozen fish filleters in Scotland, maths and science teachers in secondary schools but not other types of teachers, and theatre nurses but not midwives – even though this last sector is one that has also reported skill shortages.

Engineering technicians were restricted to those working in the aircraft component industry. Civil engineers and construction managers were also considered to be in short supply but there was no room on the Home Office list for skilled bricklayers and plasterers. Chefs, however, would be allowed in provided they earned more than £8.10 an hour.

Employers seeking workers for jobs not on the tier II list must advertise the job in the UK to show that there were no indigenous skilled workers available before they would be allowed to bring in staff from outside the EU, it said. They must also obtain a sponsor licence.

Employers that fail to carry out adequate checks that workers are sufficiently qualified face fines and even jail. Small businesses are worried, however, that the conditions are too onerous.

● The Home Office has drawn up its tier I and tier II criteria for skilled non-EU migrant labour to ensure UK nationals get the best chance of filling vacancies. The Australian-style points-based criteria replace a system of work permits. Employers now must prove they cannot fill a post with a British worker before taking on a non-EU migrant.

Tier I Highly skilled workers, entrepreneurs and investors: Workers do not need a job offer but must show they are highly skilled, speak English and have the means to support themselves. Entrepreneurs need to show they are in the process of setting up or taking over a company they will be involved in running in the UK, while investors need to show they have the money to do that.

Tier II Skilled: In addition to meeting an identified skills requirement, workers must have English language skills, prospective earnings of £24,000, depending on qualifications, or the offer of a job, and be able to support themselves for the first month.

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Barclays’ Mideast deal hit by dissenters

By Kate Burgess and Peter Thal Larsen in London

Published: November 11 2008 23:31 | Last updated: November 11 2008 23:31

Some of Barclays’ biggest shareholders have threatened to vote against the bank’s planned £7bn capital raising unless it improves the terms of the deal that would leave it almost a third owned by Middle Eastern investors.

Those voicing dissent include Legal & General Investment Management, which owns more than 5 per cent of the bank, and Aviva Investors in the UK, with 1 per cent. They are pushing Barclays to come up with better terms for the bank’s long-term investors or face a revolt at the extraordinary meeting on November 24 to approve the deal.

The dispute will come to a head on Friday, when members of the Association of British Insurers, which represents a fifth of all UK investors, meets senior Barclays executives, including Marcus Agius, the bank’s chairman.

Faced with the revolt, Barclays has signalled it is willing to explore amending the terms of the deal with the Qatar Investment Authority and Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a member of Abu Dhabi’s royal family.

However, if a compromise cannot be reached, and shareholders carry out their threat, it would be a massive blow to Barclays’ management team, led by John Varley, chief executive.

Investors were shocked when Barclays unveiled the terms of its £7bn capital injection last month without existing shareholders being given the chance to take part. One said: “The deal was sprung upon us. It is extremely expensive and dilutive, and the company has failed to demonstrate that they have got a better deal than they would have got from the government.”

But Barclays was determined to avoid the British government bail-out accepted by other UK banks, which now appears less prescriptive than first feared.

Barclays is issuing £3bn in reserve capital instruments to the QIA and Sheikh Mansour that pay an interest rate of 14 per cent, before tax, until 2019. The Middle Eastern investors are also buying £2.8bn in convertible shares, which convert into ordinary shares next summer, and receiving warrants that will further dilute existing investors. Barclays has placed convertible shares worth a further £1.25bn with institutional investors.

Shareholders have urged Barclays’ board to look at adjusting the price of the warrants, to replace part of the capital increase with an equity issue that would allow existing investors to participate.

Legal & General and Aviva would not comment. Barclays said its conversations with shareholders were “constructive and ongoing”.

Several other large Barclays shareholders have voiced anger. Another said: “We have given the message to the bank that we are very unhappy with what it has put in place. The bank did not give existing shareholders a chance to participate on the same terms as new investors.”

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Less with more

By Chris Hughes

Published: November 11 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 11 2008 02:00

Late on Monday October 13, Canary Wharf played host to one of the most unusual parties London's financial district has ever witnessed.

There was no champagne. The UK's financial sector had been humiliated that same morning, as the government committed itself to a £37bn ($58bn, €45bn) part-nationalisation of several leading banks, and the mood was subdued. The entertainment consisted of a Japanese drum dance designed to ward off evil spirits.

The location was 25 Bank Street, the former European headquarters of Lehman Brothers, the failed US investment bank. Nomura, the Japanese bank, had just signed a deal to buy the bulk of Lehman's operations in the region out of administration.

It was an event that would have been unimaginable even three months earlier. The shiny new office building had been the staging post for the 158-year-old Wall Street bank as it pursued ambitions to branch eastwards and become a global player. Now it was home to an eastern financial institution keen to move westwards as it pursued the same ambition.

"It's over," Christian Meissner, Lehman's former head of Europe, had told staff when the bank collapsed a few weeks earlier. Now Mr Meissner was breaking open sake barrels with Yugo Ishida, Nomura International's president and chief executive.

The ascendancy of eastern finance, the end of self-regulation and, above all, a lack of fizz: it is hard to imagine a moment that better captures the transformation under way in the City of London. After decades of almost unbroken expansion, in which it was given the benefit of the doubt by government and regulators, Europe's premier financial centre is now retrenching.

A City in disarray has far-reaching consequences for the companies that rely on it to raise capital, as well as for investment institutions that trade billions of dollars through London's financial district on behalf of savers and pensioners. "The City is going through a hangover after a tremendous party," says a top banker at one of the Square Mile's leading investment banks.

The immediate impact of the credit crisis on the City can be measured in job losses. From a peak of 353,000 last year, London's financial district will see employment fall to around 291,000 during 2009, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

At the sharp end of this decline are the businesses that represent the core of the City - the investment banks, stockbrokers and advisory boutiques that act as intermediaries between companies seeking to raise capital and investors looking to invest.

But aside from this obvious contraction, the City has also started to see some structural changes. It is not just the substitution of a globally ambitious Japanese bank for Lehman in Canary Wharf. The two investment banks that led in the so-called "middle market" are being consigned to history.

Dresdner Kleinwort, the latest incarnation of the venerable Kleinwort merchant bank whose roots go back to the 18th century, is being shrunk following the acquisition of its parent by Germany's Commerzbank. The new owner has said it is not keeping the Dresdner Kleinwort name - although the brand could yet be sold.

ABN Amro, Kleinwort's closest mid-market rival, is also facing aggressive shrinkage under Royal Bank of Scotland, which bought it last year. RBS had intended to use ABN as the foundation for a push into investment banking. That strategy is now being reversed in the wake of its government-sponsored recapitalisation.

On a narrow view, the credit crisis could be seen as accelerating a trend already under way - the decline of the investment banking middle-market - while taking only selective casualties at the extremes of the marketplace.

But the changes so far are early evidence of some fundamental forces that will reshape London's financial district over the coming decade: the shift in the balance of financial power from west to east, the decline in the appetite for risk-taking and the need for what were previously thought of as large players to become even bigger.

"If you look back at what has happened to the City from the late 1960s onwards, you see change that was pretty radical and evolutionary. And I expect it will go on changing in relatively surprising ways," says John Nelson, a veteran of Kleinwort Benson, Lazard and Credit Suisse, and now a non-executive of JPMorgan Cazenove.

The challenge is, in essence, simple. If the City is about making money out of money, in future it will require more to make less at the end of the day.

Regulators are insisting that banks become less risky, holding bigger capital cushions for even relatively low-risk activities. Meanwhile, banks are under pressure to strengthen back-office operations and invest in staff whose job is to keep an eye on the "front office" staff and the risks they are running.

The greater caution of regulators is shared by the wider investment community. Perceiving higher risk, investors are demanding higher returns, and this is raising the cost of capital for financial institutions.

The result? Activities that flourished in a world awash with easy money have become much less profitable, or even unviable. This new dynamic amounts to a massive increase in the cost of doing business for the City. It will favour larger institutions and become a force driving consolidation even between institutions that are already thought of as large.

"The middle ground is getting squeezed. You will have to be of a size that you can absorb what amounts to an indirect tax of increased regulation and compliance. That is inevitable. You've got to be bigger today than in the past," says Alan Yarrow, chairman of the London Investment Banking Association and vice-chairman of Dresdner Kleinwort.

Philip Augar, the former broker and author of The Death of Gentlemanly Capitalism , the seminal work on the decline of British merchant banking,says only the largest financial institutions can now be thought of as genuinely big. "Scale is being redefined. Now a scale player means Citi, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase," he says.

But some observers believe this new world also favours the very smallest players in the City - the boutique firms that sell pure advice and whose raw material is human capital rather than financial capital. Having always eschewed lending and underwriting, they are largely unaffected by the revolution elsewhere.

"The market will favour the scale battalions, but the position of boutiques as independent advisers will be strengthened by concentration among the scale players. The City will be a fertile ground for people with a reputation for a high degree of independence and integrity," says Roger Carr, chairman of Centrica, the UK energy group, and Cadbury Schweppes, the confectioner.

This raises a question as to who will occupy the ground vacated by the likes of Dresdner Kleinwort and ABN, providing advice to medium-sized companies, making markets in their shares and providing associated investment research. They have proved to be both too big to be niche players and too small to enjoy economies of scale.

It is a tough segment of the industry, but some believe it could be a target for non-banking institutions, possibly including the large audit and consulting firms. "Hedge funds and private equity could become the new independent investment banks. One of the biggest relationship bankers of the last 15 years has been John Studzinski. And he now works for Blackstone as an M&A adviser," says Mr Augar.

Either way, the City of the future looks less diverse. That will have an impact on its customers, which broadly fall into two categories - investment clients that trade in securities such as bonds and shares, and corporate clients that use the City to raise capital and for advice in pursuing deals.

The trading desks of investment banks will return to the job of matching buyers with sellers. This may sound like going back to business as usual. But the reality is that, over the past decade, investment banks became increasingly willing to act as a direct counterparty to their clients' trades, confident that they could find a third-party buyer to take on the position afterwards.

Banks will now charge more for it. Legal & General, the UK insurer, is among the biggest users of the City. Its investment management business has £300bn under management on behalf of retail and institutional clients, and its life and pensions business also manages billions in assets and liabilities.

"We were enjoying doing £250m trades at mid [price]. Today, you can't get these things done. The cost of capital will be higher and the amount of capital put up to support trading will be lower. If you want to buy bond A and sell bond B, or trade shares, it will cost more," says Tim Breedon, chief executive.

This increased cost of trading is a direct cost for pension funds, and it is likely to make investment managers think twice before making changes to client portfolios. But this may not be a bad thing if it means they also think more carefully about their long-term investment strategies.

There are also consequences for corporate clients. The City of the past decade was one where it seemed that no deal was beyond financing in myriad ways. Investment banks were quick to commit their resources to underwriting even the largest fundraisings. In future, corporations will have fewer, albeit larger, underwriting institutions to choose from when raising capital.

Mr Carr says the changes should not be overplayed, reflecting on the favourable support he sees for the large rights issue recently launched by Centrica. "What is interesting is that in all the turbulence, the fundamentals [of the process] still hold good . . . [Before the crisis] there would have been multiple routes for obtaining finance. Now the routes may have reduced. But the fundamental process is intact."

Consolidation

New for old?

One of the City's oldest names in investment banking, Kleinwort's, is facing extinction following the acquisition of its parent, Dresdner Bank, by Germany's Commerzbank. DK is the latest incarnation of the Kleinwort Benson merchant bank, created in 1961 from the merger of Robert Benson Lonsdale and Kleinwort, Sons & Co, whose roots date back to the 18th century. However, there are hopes that the UK part of DK Dresdner might be saved by a management buy-out. If so, that might even see a resurrection of the partnership model long since abandoned by great City institutions including Lazard, Cazenove and Warburgs, but the subject of renewed interest in the wake of the credit crisis.

Terms of trade

No free lunch

The contraction and restructuring of the City threatens to have an indirect cost for millions of savers and investors as investment banks change the way they do business.

Fund managers, who trade shares and bonds on behalf of retail investors and pension funds, have been increasingly able to trade directly with, rather than through, an investment bank or broker.

Rather than wait to find a counterparty to a complex trade, a fund manager could execute a transaction instantly with an investment bank. The bank would agree a price and worry about finding suitable counterparties later on.

Cut-throat competition between the banks meant that this was often a lossmaking or at least a low-return business. But now, with investment banks under pressure to pull out of risky activities, this often free lunch for fund managers is coming to an end. Banks may prefer to play a so-called agency role, connecting counterparties without putting their own account in the middle of the transaction. Or they will charge more for quoting these so-called "risk prices".

"It was all too clever, too good to be true. It was very alluring," says Tim Breedon, chief executive of Legal & General, one of the UK's largest investment institutions.

"Trading was all done on the bank's balance sheet and now we're going back to agency broking . . . if the business is going to be profitable again, banks will have to raise margins."

These trading costs will have to be born ultimately by the end investor. But some analysts argue that this may be a good thing in that it will force fund managers to trade more thoughtfully and to make genuinely long-term investment decisions.

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年金改革、財源確保が必須

　社会保障審議会年金部会は年金制度改革に向け8つの主な検討項目を示したが、国民年金保険料を軽減し、税で補助する案などの実現には新たな財源が必要になる。数年後に税制抜本改革で財源が確保できると当て込んだ形だ。しかし制度見直しの前に、まず来年度に基礎年金の国庫負担割合を引き上げるための安定的な財源を確保することが、制度を維持していくうえで必須の条件になる。

　いまの年金制度では保険料負担が上限まで段階的に引き上げられる。一方、給付については現役世代の平均手取り収入に対する年金額の割合（所得代替率）が「将来も50％を下回らないようにする」と約束している。その前提は来年度の基礎年金の国庫負担割合の2分の1への引き上げだ。(17:28)

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金融庁、ジョインベスト証券を処分へ

　金融庁は12日、野村ホールディングス傘下のインターネット証券会社、ジョインベスト証券（東京・港）に対し、近く行政処分を発動する方針を固めた。業務改善命令を軸に検討している。顧客に取引が成立したことを通知する作業が丸1日以上遅れ、翌日の売買機会を奪ったことが金融商品取引法で禁止する行為に違反したと判断したもようだ。

　顧客とのトラブルは10月14日の取引で発生した。この日は日経平均株価が過去最大の14％を超える上昇率となり、大量の注文が殺到。同社の受け入れ態勢を超えて、事務作業に時間がかかり、顧客への通知が遅れた。この結果「株式の売買機会を失った」などと苦情が寄せられていた。(17:01)

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太陽光など新エネ費用、電気料金に明示し上乗せ　経産省方針

　経済産業省は地球温暖化対策を加速するため、2009年度内にも電気料金制度を改定する方針を固めた。温暖化ガスの排出は少ないものの割高な太陽光など新エネルギーの発電・調達コストの明示を電力会社に義務づけるのが柱。電力会社が利用者に費用負担を求めやすくすることで、普及を後押しする。中長期でみると料金の上昇要因となるが、低炭素社会づくりを急ぐには家計や企業の負担増は避けられないと判断した。

　燃料価格高騰を受けた激変緩和とは別の措置。電力会社は現在、新エネ導入にかかった費用を明らかにしていないが、経産省は電力会社の会計規則を定めた省令を09年度中にも改正、費用の開示を義務づける。(07:01)

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アーバンコーポ破たん前の重要情報、パリバが非開示促す

　経営破綻したアーバンコーポレイションが重要情報を開示しないまま、仏ＢＮＰパリバとの間で資金調達契約を結んでいた問題で、パリバの外部検討委員会（委員長、松尾邦弘元検事総長）は11日、調査結果を公表した。非開示はパリバがアーバンコーポに働きかけたと認定し、「市場を軽視した極めて不適切な行為」と批判。その上で、未公表情報を知りながらアーバンコーポ株の取引を続けていたのは「インサイダー取引に該当する可能性がある」と指摘した。

　パリバは委員会の指摘を受け、経営陣などの処分を実施する方針。金融庁や証券取引等監視委員会が今後、事実関係の精査に乗り出す可能性がある。

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ガソリン価格、136.6円に　14週連続で下落

　石油情報センターが12日発表した、11月10日時点のレギュラーガソリンの給油所店頭価格（全国平均）は1リットルあたりで前週比4.4円安い136.6円だった。下落は14週連続で、140円を割り込むのは暫定税率の失効期間を除けば2007年の7月初め以来。

　石油元売り各社で週ごとに卸値を変える動きが広がっているため、原油相場の下落が反映されやすくなっている。ハイオクは同4.4円下がって147.5円、軽油は3.4円安い127.8円だった。(17:02)

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横浜ゴム、タイ南部に天然ゴムの加工工場

　横浜ゴムは12日、約10億円を投じて、タイ南部のスラタニ県に天然ゴムの加工工場を建設すると発表した。生産能力は月3000トンの見込みで、 2009年10月の稼働を目指す。同社はこれまで天然ゴムを輸入しており、自社で加工工場を持つのは初めて。治安情勢などに左右されず安定的に天然ゴムを調達できるとしている。

　工場建設に先駆け、9月にタイの天然ゴム加工会社テックフーと合弁で「ワイ・ティー・ラバー」を設立した。資本金は1億バーツ（約2億8000万円）で、出資比率は横浜ゴムが95％、テックフーが5％。(15:04)

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10月のプラチナ販売量が最高、価格急落で個人動く　田中貴金属

　田中貴金属工業は12日、10月の個人向けの投資用プラチナ地金の販売量が前年同月に比べて約17.6倍に膨らみ、過去最高になったと発表した。 2001年1月を100とした指数でみると08年10月は2412で、わずか1カ月間で2007年の年間販売量の1.3倍を記録した。

　ニューヨーク市場の先物取引などをもとに算出した1グラムあたりの価格は、10月の月間平均で3058円（税別）と、前月より約1300円下落。2005年5月以来の低水準となったため、割安とみた国内の個人投資家が購入を増やしたとみられる。

　プラチナの月間平均価格は、08年6月には1グラム7000円台まで上昇したが、世界景気の減速で自動車触媒用の需要が落ち込むとの見方などから、7月以降急落している。(14:22)

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ＩＮＡＸ、韓国に販売子会社　建材やトイレ拡販

　ＩＮＡＸは12日、韓国ソウルに現地法人を設立、このほど営業を始めたと発表した。顧客の新規開拓や販売店への営業支援を強化する。脱臭機能付きタイルやシャワートイレを拡販するほか、月内をめどに外装タイルの販売も始める考えだ。国内需要が伸び悩む中、アジア市場に注力する。

　資本金は3億ウォン（約2200万円）で、ＩＮＡＸが全額出資した。約165平方メートルの本社事務所の一部は、シャワートイレを体験できるショールームとしても使えるという。(13:01)

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サウジ、対日原油供給５％削減　元売り各社に通告

　サウジアラビアの石油会社、国営サウジアラムコは11日、日本向けの原油供給量を12月積みで当初契約に比べて5％前後削減すると石油元売り各社に通告した。石油輸出国機構（ＯＰＥＣ）が10月に打ち出した減産に伴う措置で、供給カットは1年10カ月ぶり。ガソリンや灯油などの国内需給を引き締める要因となるが、石油製品需要は低迷が続いているだけに、製品価格への影響は不透明だ。

　サウジは日本の最大の原油輸入先で、輸入量の27％を占める。サウジの輸出向け生産量は全体で日量700万バレル程度。ＯＰＥＣが打ち出した日量150 万バレルの減産のうち、サウジは46万6000バレル減らす。350万―400万バレルを占めるアジア向けで20万バレル近く削減する見通し。削減幅は 2009年1月積み以降、毎月見直すが、同程度の削減が続く公算が大きい。(09:52)

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伊藤忠、米国でバイオマス発電　米最大級を３基建設

　伊藤忠商事は米国で木質廃材を燃料にするバイオマス（生物資源）発電事業に参入する。米エネルギー企業などと共同で2009年に米最大規模のバイオマス発電所を建設、10年以降も続けて2基を建設する。3基の合計出力数は一般的な火力発電所1基に相当する30万キロワット程度となる見通し。米政府が新エネルギーの普及に向けた優遇策を整備する中、成長が見込める同分野で攻勢をかける。

　現在、米国では出力2万キロワット級のバイオマス発電所が普及しており、6万―7万キロワット級だと大型とされる。(08:18)

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米グーグル、サイト内検索エンジンを無料提供　日本向け

　米グーグルは11日、個人のブログやホームページの中身を同社の検索エンジンを使ってキーワード検索できるようにする無料サービスを日本向けに始める。同時に企業向けに高機能の有料検索サービスも提供する。ともにキーワードに関係する広告を画面に表示する「検索連動広告」を利用でき、サイト運営者は広告がクリックされるたびに収入を得られる。新サービスにより検索国内首位のヤフーを追撃する。

　個人向けサービスは「カスタム検索」、企業向けは「サイトサーチ」。誰でも自分のサイト内に検索窓を設置し、グーグルの検索技術で求める文章を探せる。

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住友金属鉱山、比でのニッケル工場建設を１年延期

　住友金属鉱山はフィリピン・ミンダナオ島で計画していたニッケル製錬工場の建設を最長1年延期する。2009年初めの着工予定を10年初頭に先送りする。金融危機や景気減速でニッケル価格がピーク時の5分の1に急落、建設費用も当初見込みの1.5倍に膨らむ恐れがあり、採算性が不透明になってきたため。日本の非鉄各社や商社は大規模投資で資源の確保を急いできたが、今後計画を見直す動きが広がる可能性もある。

　住友鉱山はフィリピンの鉱山会社と07年に事業化調査に着手し、09年にも低純度の鉱石からニッケルを取り出す製錬工場を建設。ニッケル量換算で年3万トンの中間原料を生産し、全量を住友鉱山の愛媛県の工場で地金にする計画だった。(07:00)

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神奈川県内自治体、産科医への支援相次ぐ　院内保育所設置も

　神奈川県内で医師不足が指摘される産科医への支援策を強化する自治体が増えている。大和市は市立病院の産科医の年収を現行の約2倍の3000万円以上への引き上げを検討。昨秋から1000万円の追加手当を支給し始めた厚木市の例もある。助産師の活用や医師用の院内保育所の設置も相次いでいる。

　大和市立病院は産科医不足を理由に、2007年7月から分娩（ぶんべん）を月間30件ほどに制限してきたが、09年3月末に常勤医が 1人辞めて2人に減るため、今月10日から分娩の受け付けをやめた。同病院では「産科医を引き付ける要因になる」として、分娩再開に向けた医師確保のためには年収の引き上げが必要との認識だ。

　産科医が分娩を扱うたびに支給される手当は横須賀、小田原、茅ケ崎、大和、厚木、藤沢市の6市が導入している。このうち小田原市立病院は責任者である主治医の分娩手当を4月に1万円から3万円に増やした。

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国籍法改正案、民主が賛成へ　今国会で成立の公算

　民主党は11日の法務部門会議で、日本人男性と外国人女性の間に生まれ、父親が出生後に認知した子に両親が結婚していなくても日本国籍の取得を認める国籍法改正案への賛成方針を確認した。政府提出の同改正案は、両親の結婚を国籍取得の条件とする国籍法の規定を違憲とした最高裁判決を踏まえた措置。民主党の賛成方針により、今国会で成立する公算が大きくなった。(11日　19:46)

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日本の「男女平等指数」は98位に後退　世界経済フォーラム

　世界経済フォーラムは12日、世界各国の男女平等の度合いを指数化した「ジェンダー・ギャップ指数」の2008年版を発表した。日本の総合順位は前年より7つ下がり、98位に後退。女性国会議員が少なく政治面での参加が遅れ、経済面でも収入や昇進などで男女間に大きな格差が残っているためだ。

　首位はノルウェー、2位はフィンランド、3位はスウェーデンで、北欧勢が前年に引き続き上位を占めた。日本は先進国で最低の評価。順位を16上げて57 位に躍進した中国には大きく引き離され、イスラム諸国の一部にも抜かれた。評価対象は全130カ国で、日本は下から数えて33番目だ。(17:27)

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鋼板カルテル、大口顧客向けも合意か

　建材向け亜鉛めっき鋼板を巡る価格カルテル事件で、大手鋼板メーカー5社（当時）が2006年4―6月、独占禁止法違反容疑で公正取引委員会に刑事告発された小口顧客向けの販売ルートだけでなく、大手ゼネコンや住宅メーカーなどの大口顧客向けの販売ルートでも協調値上げで合意していた疑いがあることが 11日、関係者の話で分かった。

　調べによると、日新製鋼、淀川製鋼所、日鉄住金鋼板（東京）への統合前の2社、ＪＦＥ鋼板（同）の営業担当幹部は06年4―6月、同鋼板の同7月出荷分から1トンあたり1万円（約10％）の値上げで合意した疑いが持たれている。(07:00)

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みずほ、三井住友、りそな株「１２月暴落」説浮上

大幅分割実施で年末売買停止

　みずほフィナンシャルグループや三井住友フィナンシャルグループなどの株価が１２月に急落－。こんな観測が市場で浮上している。両グループは来年１月の株券電子化を前に、大幅な株式分割を実施。それに伴い、１２月２５日から年内いっぱい、両グループの株式の売買が停止されるのだ。「深刻な金融危機のなか、株式売買ができない期間が生じるのは非常に不安」（機関投資家）として、年末に向けて株式が一斉に売られるのではないか－というわけだ。

　１２月２５日から株式売買を停止するのは、銀行界ではみずほ、三井住友のほか、りそなホールディングス、札幌北洋ホールディングス、八千代銀行の計５グループ・行。

　それ以外の業種では、日本製紙グループ本社やＪＲ東日本、ＮＴＴなども売買を停止する。
三井住友（クリックで拡大）

　これらの企業に共通するのは、０．１株のような１株未満の株（端株）の保有者がいるということ。端株は、経営統合の際の統合比率で小数点以下の数値があった場合などに発生する。

　来年１月５日に実施予定の株券電子化では株券１枚１枚を電子データ化することになり、端株は電子データとして扱えなくなる。そのため、これらの企業では大幅な株式分割を実施して、端株を解消する。
りそな（クリックで拡大）

　東京証券取引所は株式分割での混乱を避けるため、１２月２５日から今年最後の取引日となる３０日までの４営業日、これらの銘柄の売買を停止することを決めている。

　みずほは今年５月に、「株券電子化の前日にあたる来年１月４日に株式を１０００分割して、これまでの０．１株を１００株とする」と発表。三井住友やりそなも大幅な株式分割を実施することにしている。

　三菱ＵＦＪフィナンシャル・グループ、住友信託銀行、中央三井トラスト・ホールディングスの３グループ・行は、すでに端株解消作業を終えており、こうした手続きは行わない。

　みずほ、三井住友、りそなの株式が売買停止になることには、「深刻な金融危機のなか、株式売買ができない期間が生じるのは非常に不安」（機関投資家）との声も聞かれる。

　ある証券ディーラーはこう指摘する。

　「９月に米大手証券リーマン・ブラザーズが破綻して以降、金融株に対する投資家の不安は根強く、非常に不安定な値動きが続いている。そんな状況のなか、１２月２５日からの売買停止期間中に、もし市場環境が一変するような不測の事態が世界の金融界を襲ったら、みずほや三井住友株の保有者は売りたくても売れないという事態に直面することになる」

　そして「こうしたリスクを回避するため、みずほや三井住友株を売買停止前にいったん売ってしまうことも選択肢の１つになるだろう。現物株を持ったまま信用取引で売ってヘッジする手もあるが、いずれにしろ株安要因になる」という。

　また、売買停止の時期が年末というのも不安感をあおることになる。

　「１２月末は米国でクリスマス商戦の状況が報じられる時期。ここで米国の個人消費の落ち込みがより鮮明になれば、世界中で投資家心理が冷え込む恐れもある」（外資系金融機関幹部）

　そうなれば、「世界中の投資家が市場から一時撤退していきかねない」（同）だけに、世界的な株暴落がまたまた起きる可能性もある。それが売買停止の時期とぶつかったら、泣くに泣けないだろう。

　みずほ株の株価は、１０月１日の４５万円から１１月１１日には２７万９６００円と約３８％下落。三井住友株も６５万５０００円から約４０％下落して４１万６０００円になった。比較的キズが浅いりそな株でも１４万６００円から１１万７０００円へと約１７％下がっている。

　いずれもひところよりはやや持ち直しているものの、年末に向け、その株価動向から目が離せない。

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今や就活もＩＴ化…採用新たな判断ツールに「ブログ」

　景気後退の加速で、就職戦線も過酷さを増している。ここ数年の超売り手市場の終焉で、多くの企業は採用の門戸を狭くし、効率的に優秀な学生を確保しようと躍起だ。そんななか、若者の間で急速に普及するブログが採用のための判断ツールとして、にわかに注目を集めている。

　今年はすでに終戦に近い就職戦線だが、早くも内定取消を出す企業も現れるなど、ここ数年継続していた「超売り手市場」は見る影もない。

　就職情報サイト「リクナビ」を運営するリクルートの広報担当は「２００８、０９年度と大量採用が続いた反動で、来春は採用人数を縮小するのが元々の流れだった。企業の業績悪化とのＷパンチで採用減は必至」と厳しい見通しを示す。

　そんななか、若者に馴染みのブログや会員制サイト（ＳＮＳ）を活用しての採用活動が、急速に広まっている。

　都内のＩＴ関連会社社員、斎藤のり子さん（２６）は０４年、ランキング２位を獲得する人気ブログを運営していたことから、ネット大手「ライブドア」（当時）から直接オファーを受けた。

　「ブログを≪ライブドアに就職したいなあー≫と直球のタイトルに変更したら人事部から連絡があり、すぐに就職が決定。似たようなケースで採用に至った同僚もいました」（斎藤さん）

　インターネット検索サービス「人力検索はてな」運営の「はてな」（京都）ではブログを履歴書として活用している。同社の輿水宏哲取締役（３１）は「技術者採用で、こちらからのアプローチを頻繁に行っています。今年も奄美大島からブログ枠で１人採用しました」と語る。

　これ以外にも、ＳＮＳ最大手「ミクシィ」で熱心な女性会員が社員登用されたことがネット上で話題になったことも。

　一方、ブログを利用した企業ＰＲも盛んだ。

　「リクナビ」では昨年度から人事担当者ブログのサービスを開始し、登録する６７８６社のほとんどで採用。求人求職サービス情報大手「エン・ジャパン」（東京）が５２５社を対象にした調査では、今年度、ブログを採用活動に導入する企業は前年比約２倍の４４．６％に急増している。

　「エントリー者しか閲覧できない裏ブログを開設する企業もある。ＨＰより情報の自由度が高い点で、採用活動の実態や企業の内側を学生に伝えやすい。今後、採用ツールとして急速に普及するでしょう」（同広報）

ZAKZAK 2008/11/12

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白昼の青山で火薬爆発、炎上…２遺体発見、３人けが

「調合中に爆発した」と男性

　１２日午後０時半ごろ、東京都渋谷区神宮前３丁目のイベント会社「ブロンコ」の作業所兼住宅から出火、火元と向かいの民家の２棟を全焼した。火元の１階と２階でそれぞれ遺体が見つかった。８０代と５０代の女性２人が逃げ遅れたとの情報があり、警視庁原宿署は身元確認を急いでいる。

　同庁や住民の話によると、火元はイベント会社「ブロンコ」経営の男性（６０）方３階建て事務所兼住宅。男性ら３人が顔にやけどするなどして病院に運ばれた。

　「ブロンコ」は映画用のピストルに使う火薬を扱うことで有名な会社で、１階が事務所兼作業場。男性は救急搬送中に「１階の作業場で火薬を調合中に爆発した」と話しており、原宿署は調合ミスから爆発につながった可能性があるとみて調べている。住居部分には普段から男性と妻ら家族６人で生活していた。

　男性を救出した近くに住む岸田真介さん（４２）は「大きな爆発音の後に５メートルぐらいの火柱が上がった。１階部分は半分くらいが吹き飛んでおり、男性が全身血だらけで倒れていた」とし、「助けだそうとすると、『２階に祖母がいる』と話した。救助中も大小の爆発音が鳴り続けていた」と振り返った。

　現場は神宮球場の南西約３００メートルで、商店と住宅が混在する一角。

ZAKZAK 2008/11/12

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爆発：火薬扱う事務所で調合中？　２人死亡　東京・渋谷

　１２日午後０時半ごろ、東京都渋谷区神宮前３のイベント会社「ブロンコ」経営、横山信一さん（６０）方から出火し、３階建ての住宅兼会社事務所を全焼。隣接する住宅１棟と合わせ計約２２０平方メートルを焼いた。焼け跡から２人の遺体が見つかり、警視庁原宿署は行方が分からない横山さんの妻でパート従業員の洋子さん（５５）と母の喜代子さん（８８）とみて身元確認を急いでいる。横山さんも全身やけどで重体。ほかに家族ら３人が負傷し病院に運ばれた。横山さんが搬送される際「火薬の調合中に爆発した」と話したことから、警視庁は保有していた火薬が何らかの原因で爆発、出火したとみて調べている。

　ほかにけがをしたのは、横山さんの長男でアルバイト、信吾さん（２９）と次男渉さん（２３）、近所の男性（６６）の３人。

　調べでは、横山さんは自宅１階をブロンコ社の事務所兼作業場として映画の特殊効果音を作っていた。火薬類はその作業のため必要で保有していたとみられる。横山さんは救急隊員に「調合中に火薬がくすぶり始め爆発した」と話しており、１階で調合作業中に出火したらしい。

　横山さん方は６人家族で、出火当時は１階作業場に横山さんと喜代子さん、２階に洋子さん、３階に信吾さんと渉さんがいた。長女（２６）は外出中で無事だった。

　遺体は１階風呂場と２階リビングで見つかったという。

　調べに対し、信吾さんと渉さんは「爆発音がして下の階に行こうとしたら、火と煙で行けなかったので窓から逃げた」と説明しているといい、警視庁は当時の状況や火薬の保管方法について調べを進める。

　現場は神宮球場から南西に約３５０メートル、東京メトロ銀座線外苑前駅北西約４００メートルの住宅街。近くには、都立青山高校やブラジル大使館などがある。

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金融サミット：政府がＩＭＦに１０兆円融資

　政府は１２日、金融危機で財政難に陥った新興国に向けたＩＭＦ（国際通貨基金）緊急融資制度を支えるため、新たに日本の外貨準備から１０００億ドル（約１０兆円）規模の融資をする方針を固めた。１４日から米ワシントンで開催される第１回緊急首脳会議（金融サミット）で麻生太郎首相が表明する方向で調整しており、世界に広がる金融危機への日本の貢献をアピールしたい考えだ。

　１兆ドル（約１００兆円）に上る日本の外貨準備の中から、必要に応じてＩＭＦに資金を貸し付ける方式で調整しており、今後、ＩＭＦの緊急融資が急増した場合は、さらに日本の融資枠を拡大することも検討する。

　米国発の金融危機は欧州や新興国にも拡大し、アイスランドのように国家規模を上回る資産規模を持つ金融機関の救済を迫られたケースでは、一国だけでは対応できず、国家破綻（はたん）を回避するにはＩＭＦによる緊急融資発動が不可欠だ。

　ＩＭＦはアイスランドのほかハンガリー、ウクライナなどへの支援を決定。トルコやパキスタンも今後、支援要請する意向で、支援対象国が急増する可能性があり、ＩＭＦは「支援融資向けの資金枠（総額２０００億ドル＝約２０兆円）を早急に拡大させる必要がある」（幹部）とみている。【清水憲司】

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教科書：指導要領外の記述が自由に　文科省

　文部科学省は１２日、学習指導要領の範囲を超えた「発展的な学習」の教科書への記載について、「小中学校は全体の１割程度、高校は２割程度」とする現行の上限規定を廃止することを盛り込んだ制度改定原案を、教科用図書検定調査審議会に示した。審議会の作業部会も同日、承認し来年度の検定から適用され、厚みを増した新しいスタイルの教科書が登場することになりそうだ。

　審議会は、学ぶ内容が増える新学習指導要領が１１年度以降に全面実施されることに合わせ、教科書の改善方法を検討してきた。

　教科書に指導要領の範囲外の内容を記述することは、０２年８月の検定基準改定で「本文では記述せず、発展学習であることを明示する」などの条件付きで認められた。記述量は示されていないが、文科省は検定で小中学校１割程度、高校２割程度を上限として運用、教科書会社もその範囲内で申請してきた。

　審議会ではこれまでに「理解力や学習段階などに応じて知識を活用し、探求していけるような教科書が望ましい」などの意見が出た。文科省も「教科書構成上の配慮や工夫が必要」と結論を出しており、政府の教育再生懇談会は７月に「国語、理科、英語でページ数を倍増すべきだ」と提案している。このため教科書に指導要領の範囲を超えた内容が大幅に加えられる見通しだ。

　文科省の原案は「補充的な学習」として例えば小学校算数の学習内容を中学校数学の教科書で取り上げることを認めるよう検定基準を見直すことを提案。児童生徒が学習済みの内容を反復したり、家庭で自習しやすいように練習問題を充実させることも示した。漫画などのイラストや写真の多用は子供たちの想像力を阻害するとして、避けることを求める記述も盛り込んだ。

　審議会が年内にもまとめる最終報告を受け、文科省は検定基準を改定する方針。【加藤隆寛】

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所得制限は自治体判断、定額給付金で自公合意　1800万円下限に

　自民、公明両党は12日午前、定額給付金の支給方式で合意した。高額所得者に自発的な辞退を求めるかは市町村の裁量に委ね、その際の目安として所得で1800万円を下限とする方針を示した。政府は総務省の定額給付金実施本部で今年度内の支給に向けた詳細の検討に入る。

　両党の政調会長が河村建夫官房長官に内容を伝え、麻生太郎首相も了承した。この後、首相は「基本的に迅速、公平、いろんな話を申し上げたが、大筋その線に沿っていて良かった」と首相官邸で記者団に語った。

　支給額は1人当たり1万2000円で、65歳以上の高齢者と18歳以下の子どもに8000円を加算する。総額は約1兆9600億円。与党は「今年度第二次補正予算の成立後できるだけ速やかに実施したい」（自民党の保利耕輔政調会長）考えだが、支給は来年3月ごろになる可能性が高い。(13:38)

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定額給付金、通知で「辞退」目安例示へ　所得で1800万円有力

　与党は11日、総額2兆円規模の定額給付金を巡って最終調整を続けた。制度上は所得制限は設けないが、一定の水準を上回る高額所得者には自発的な辞退を促す方針。年間所得で1800万円以上を目安とする案が有力だ。自民党の細田博之、公明党の北側一雄両幹事長ら両党幹部が12日午前に会談し、具体案を正式決定する。

　これまでの調整では(1)支給額は1人当たり1万2000円、65歳以上の高齢者と18歳以下の子どもに8000円を加算する(2)高額所得者には受け取り辞退を促すが、強制力や拘束力は持たせない――ことなどが固まった。(07:01)

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１８００万円で与党合意…定額給付金所得制限問題

　自民、公明両党は１２日、総額２兆円の定額給付金を１人当たり１万２０００円とし、所得制限の有無については各市町村の判断に委ねることで合意。制限をする場合は年間所得１８００万円を下限とした。一方、鳩山邦夫総務相は１１日、年収２０００万円を超える国会議員について「法律上、返納はできないのでは」と述べた。受け取るつもりはないと思うが…。

　与党合意では、給付金に必要な総額を国が各市町村に交付し、所得制限に関しては市町村が交付要綱で決める。

　所得制限の対象となる可能性がある「１８００万円超」とは、サラリーマンの場合、給与収入が２０７４万円を超えるケース。

　年間歳費だけで２３００万円の収入がある国会議員は、どうなるのか。

　鳩山総務相は１１日午前、所得を理由に「国会議員は受け取るべきでない」としたうえで、「例えば、われわれが自主的に返納したら、選挙法上、大丈夫なのかな。寄付できませんよね、地元に」と述べ、給付金の返還は難しいとの認識も示した。

　公職選挙法では候補者が自分の選挙区内にある団体に寄付をすることを禁じており、国や地方公共団体も含まれる。鳩山氏はこのあたりを懸念して問題提起したわけだ。

　総務省選挙課は「確かに、一度受け取ったものを市町村に返すと寄付になる。ただ、例えばそもそも受け取らなければ、寄付には当たらない」と話している。

　【与党合意の骨子】

　（１）給付金は１人１万２０００円。１８歳以下の子どもと６５歳以上の高齢者には８０００円を加算。

　（２）給付金に要する総額を各市町村に交付。

　（３）所得制限を設けるかは各市町村が実情に応じて交付要綱で決定。所得制限の下限は年間所得１８００万円。

　（４）所得制限を設定した市町村で、給付金が返還請求に基づき返還された場合、返還された給付金は、返還関連事務費の一部に充てることができる。

ZAKZAK 2008/11/12

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高所得者の課税強化　自民税調が「格差是正」検討

2008年11月12日3時4分

　自民党税制調査会は将来の消費増税に合わせ、高所得層の所得税引き上げや相続税強化、低所得層の税負担軽減などの「格差是正税制」の検討に入った。消費税は「所得が低いほど負担が大きい」との批判があるため、高所得者らへの課税強化で不満を抑える狙いだ。

　自民党税調は１２月中旬をめどに、今後の消費増税などの道筋を示す「中期プログラム」を作る方針だ。プログラム策定は、麻生首相が１０月３０日に発表した新総合経済対策で打ち出したもので、党税調がとりまとめる。

　首相は「景気状況を見たうえで、３年後に消費税の引き上げをお願いしたい」としているが、消費増税には批判が根強い。所得に関係なく、一律に生活必需品や食料品にかかるため「低所得者ほど重税感が強まる」との指摘があるほか、小泉政権以降の「格差拡大」への批判も強まっている。党税調のなかには、こうした批判に配慮し、所得税や相続税などの改正も同時に打ち出す必要があるとの意見が出ている。

　所得税では、課税所得のうち１８００万円を超える部分にかかる最高税率を現在の４０％から引き上げる案などが浮上。過去の税制改正では、所得が高いほど税率が上がる累進課税を弱める傾向が続いてきた。この案が実現すれば、転換を図ることになる。一方、低所得層に対してはさらに税負担を減らす案が出ている。

　相続税は課税強化を検討。遺産にかかる課税最低限（５千万円に、法定相続人１人につき１千万円を加算）の引き下げや最高税率の引き上げなどが議論されそうだ。

　法人税の引き下げも検討する。国・地方合わせて約４０％になる法人税などの実効税率が諸外国より高いとの批判が経済界からあるためだ。企業向けの租税特別措置の整理も進める。個人、法人にかかる税を見直し、抜本的な税制改正を議論する。

　党税調では新総合経済対策に盛り込まれた減税策もとりまとめる。過去最大級となる住宅ローン減税については、１１日の総会で柳沢伯夫・小委員長が国税の所得税だけでなく、地方税の住民税も対象に含め、減税効果を高めることを提案。減税による地方自治体の減収分は国が補う考えも示した。（山川一基）

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国内の臓器移植に厳格な要件、海外渡航者多く

　臓器移植について、日本では1997年10月、脳死判定された人からの臓器摘出と移植の手続きを定めた臓器移植法が施行された。提供する本人が生前に文書で意思表示し、家族の同意が必要としたほか、15歳未満の臓器提供は認めないなど厳格な要件が規定されている。

　この結果、日本臓器移植ネットワークに登録する移植の待機患者は年約1万2000人に達する一方、同ネットを介しての移植は、脳死や心停止など死体からの臓器提供に限られることから、移植を受けられる人は200人程度。生体からの腎臓、肝臓移植も年間計約1500件にとどまっている。(17:01)

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Genetically modified maize lowers fertility in mice, study finds

Posted : Tue, 11 Nov 2008 13:39:38 GMT
Author : DPA

Vienna - Feeding mice with genetically engineered maize developed by the US-based Monsanto corporation led to lower fertility and body weight, according to a study conducted by the University of Veterinary Medicine in Vienna presented Tuesday. In the study, mice fed with the NK603 x MON810 sweetcorn variety over a period of 20 weeks showed a smaller litter size and lighter offspring than mice fed with non-engineered maize.

The differences "were statistically significant in the third and fourth litters," according to an abstract of the study led by Professor Juergen Zentek and commissioned by Austria's Environment Ministry.

Although in an alternative set-up of the study the differences between the groups of mice were found to be less pronounced and statistically not significant, the environmental organization Global 2000 said this meant that further long-term tests were needed.

Austria has long resisted calls by the European Commission to allow the use of genetically modified food, but it finally had to lift its ban on MON810 maize as animal feed last year.

However, Austrian feed companies have so far agreed to a self- imposed ban on MON810.

The tested corn breed is a cross of MON810 and another variety and is designed to be resistant against herbicides and insects.

An expert panel of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) found in 2005 that the hybrid was "safe for human and animal health."

Following the release of the study at a conference in Vienna, Global 2000 and Greenpeace criticized EFSA's approval of the variety and called for a ban of genetically engineered maize.

"It is now vital to keep animal feed in Austria free of genetically engineered maize, and an immediate ban on the use of genetically engineered maize MON810 in Austria is the order of the day," Global 2000 spokesman Jens Karp said.

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Why eating GM food could lower your fertility

By Sean Poulter
Last updated at 11:22 AM on 12th November 2008

Genetically modified corn has been linked to a threat to fertility in an official study that could deliver a hammer blow to controversial 'Frankenstein Food'.

A long-term feeding trial commissioned by the Austrian government found mice fed on GM corn or maize had fewer offspring and lower birth rates.

The trial has triggered a call from Greenpeace for a recall of all GM food crops currently on the market worldwide on the grounds of the threat to human health.

Most of the research on GM crop safety has been conducted by biotech companies, such as Monsanto, rather than outside independent laboratories.

GM advocates have argued that the fact the US population has been eaten some types of GM food for more than a decade is proof of its safety.

However, these reassurances have been turned on their head by the study commissioned by the Austrian Ministries for Agriculture and Health, which was presented yesterday at a scientific seminar in Vienna.

Professor Dr Jurgen Zentek, Professor for Veterinary Medicine at the University of Vienna and lead author of the study, said a GM diet effected the fertility of mice.

GM expert at Greenpeace International, Dr Jan van Aken, said: 'Genetically Engineered food appears to be acting as a birth control agent, potentially leading to infertility.

'If this is not reason enough to close down the whole biotech industry once and for all, I am not sure what kind of disaster we are waiting for.

'Playing genetic roulette with our food crops is like playing Russian roulette with consumers and public health.'

The Austrian scientists performed several long-term feeding trials with laboratory mice over a course of 20 weeks.

One of the studies was a so-called reproductive assessment by continuous breeding (RACB) trial, in which the same parent generation gave birth to several litters of baby mice.

The parents were fed either with a diet containing 33per cent of GM maize, a hybrid of Monsanto's MON 810 and another variety, and a normal feed mix..

The team found changes that were 'statistically significant' in the third and fourth litters produced by the mice given a GM diet. There were fewer offspring, while the young mice were smaller.

Prof Zentek said there was a direct link between the changes seen and the GM diet.

A press release from the Austrian Agency for Health and Nutrition, said the group of mice given a diet of genetically engineered corn saw a significant change in fertility.

It said: 'The number of litters and offspring decreased in the GE-fed group faster than in the control. In the GE-fed group more females remained without litters than in the control group.'

Monsanto press offices in the UK and USA were unable to provide a comment on the findings.

CropGen, which speaks for the biotech industry, claims GM crops have been accepted as safe by Government authorities on both sides of the Atlantic.

British scientists recently unveiled a GM purple tomato they claimed could help people avoid developing cancer. The tomato is high in antioxidants - naturally found in other fresh produce such as blueberrys, cranberries and carrots - which are seen as a protection against ill health.