Concern for nations outside magic circle
By Krishna Guha and Alan Beattie in Washington
Published: October 30 2008 23:25 | Last updated: October 30 2008 23:25
Moves by the Federal Reserve and International Monetary Fund to make dollars available quickly and without conditions to a select group of emerging markets raise questions about the impact on those left out of the schemes.
The initial response was very positive, with a broad-based rally across emerging market stocks and bonds, as investors took the view that more support for emerging markets in general was good for all of them.
But there were some signs of differentiation in the currency market between those that now have access to Fed dollars – Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Singapore – and those that do not.
Meanwhile, experts expressed lingering concerns that by throwing a protective cordon around some emerging economies, the Fed and the IMF could aggravate the challenges facing those outside the new magic circle.
“If you create a class of emerging markets that are really protected and close to the developed countries there is a danger that the second-class citizens are marked out more clearly,” says Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the IMF.
Raghu Rajan, another former IMF chief economist, says there is now a division between “those inside the club and those outside the club” – although he believes the negative effects on those excluded will be limited.
The hazard that helping some countries might hurt others is an international variant of the problem created when governments rushed to rescue their banks, fuelling pressure on non-bank financial institutions.
Policymakers call it the “boundary problem” and it is a recurring dilemma as authorities around the world ramp up their efforts to curb the credit crisis.
The Fed and the Fund are creating two protective walls to shield emerging markets in need of dollars. Within the inner wall are the four nations that are receiving $30bn (€23bn, £18bn) each from the Fed.
The Fed says they are “systemically important” and “well-managed”. They resemble the core banks at the centre of bank rescue plans. Within the outer wall are the emerging markets eligible for large rapid loans from the IMF under its new no-strings-attached lending programme.
The IMF has not named countries eligible for these loans, but the list would include the four backed by the Fed, the Czech Republic, Chile plus possibly Poland and some Asian nations. Other emerging markets will still be eligible for IMF bail-outs, but on an ad hoc basis.
The enhanced differentiation between markets changes their relative riskiness. The question is whether it could even make some outside the boundaries more vulnerable than before.
This is what happened to non-banks excluded from bank rescue plans. Auto finance companies and insurance firms are now asking to be treated like banks, even if they have to become banks in the process.
There are differences. The new international lines of defence resemble a set of concentric circles rather than the binary division between banks and non-banks.
No nation is explicitly excluded from aid and the $120bn from the Fed means there is now more money available overall.
Moreover, nations do not compete with each other in the way that banks and insurance companies do. There is a “public good” in the form of system stability.
Still, concerns remain. Exclusion from the new facilities may be seen as signalling unsustainable policies, or a lack of international support.
With almost $50bn committed to bail-outs, and $100bn notionally set aside for new no-strings loans, the IMF will have only $100bn left for all other cases.
Moreover, emerging economies compete for private capital. Changes in relative standing can lead to portfolio shifts that could result in some countries losing in absolute terms – just as the bank rescue pushed up the cost of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt.
Michael Hugman, a strategist at Standard Bank, says: “There is always a danger, particularly in the current market environment, that any intervention ... will have negative effects on those countries excluded from the new facility.”
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European funding for UK business ‘too little, too late’
By Jonathan Moules, Enterprise Correspondent
Published: October 30 2008 22:58 | Last updated: October 30 2008 22:58
The European Investment Bank funding announced on Thursday will be too little too late for many UK businesses that are struggling for cash in the face of customers tightening their payment terms and high street lenders withdrawing facilities.
The Federation of Small Businesses welcomed Thursday’s announcement as a step in the right direction. However, Andrew Cave, FSB spokesman, said the problem was that the money was unlikely to be available to the companies that need it for at least five months.
This would be too late for Mark Olbrich, director of Salade, an upmarket sandwich shop chain, which opened five stores before its bank pulled vital creditfacilities.
Mr Olbrich’s problem is that he needs at least six stores to break even and he has run out of cash from his own resources. “It is touch and go right now,” he said.
Sally Preston, founder of frozen babyfood producer Babylicious, said her business has kept its head above water in part by shaving expenditure on items, such as insurance.
“Everybody needs liquidity because payment terms are being slashed everywhere,” she said, adding that many of the businesses she knows are on the verge of going under because they cannot get credit.
“Banks want more and more personal security for loans, which at a time when your house is going down in value is difficult to do.”
She holds out little hope of renewing her overdraft facility after hearing of another business with a £1m contract with Tesco that was refused an overdraft by its bank.
However, Andrew Carruthers, chief executive of Spark Ventures, an early-stage venture capital investor, said provision of additional funding support for loans missed the point – the main problem for many small businesses now was falling sales due to the economic downturn.
“It actually may have started in the banking sector, but it has gone past that point,” he said. “A lot of small businesses are saying that contracts they expected to raise this month have either been pulled or delayed. It is now for the banks to assess whether they are good risks or not.”
The Forum of Private Business, which represents 25,000 small and medium-sized enterprises, has seen increasing numbers of members call with stories of increased overdraft rates and withdrawn credit lines.
“There can be no excuse for the major lenders not to live up to their responsibilities to small businesses,” said Nick Palin, the FPB’s director of finance.
Kevin Whiting, who runs Sherdon Estate Agents, near Basingstoke, has banked with HSBC for 17 years. However, his application to increase his small mortgage in order to develop the site, which he estimates will bring in an additional £600 each month, was rejected.
“Small businesses like mine are being seriously hit by these economic conditions,” he said. “Over the past eight weeks or so banking issues have compounded an already difficult situation. I suffered bad experiences during the previous recession and, unless the banks free up funding, it will ultimately be the employees of small firms who suffer.”
John Wright, the national chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses, said: “The government must insist more banks apply to the EIB so more small businesses can access the much-needed funds. More than 80 per cent of small businesses use the four major banks, yet only one – Barclays – currently supplies EIB finance. We need to be assured that this money will actually filter down to small businesses.”
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The Short View: Trick or treat?
By John Authers
Published: October 31 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 31 2008 02:00
Kids dressing up for Hallowe'en tonight could do worse than go dressed as a stock market trader. It is the anniversary of the day when world market indices touched their all-time high.
The FTSE World index is down 44 per cent since the rally in stocks finally turned into a pumpkin (in dollar terms - yen-based investors are sitting on a fall of 52 per cent while lucky UK investors have seen a decline of only 28 per cent, according to Bloomberg data).
The fall was universal. Treats go to investors who targeted the stock markets of Tunisia and Lebanon a year ago, which are the only ones to have risen - by 9.5 and 6 per cent respectively - in the past year. Even they are down in yen.
Tricks go to everyone else. The worst performers were the smaller European emerging markets, led by Iceland with a decline of 95 per cent.
At least investors who buy now can do so more cheaply. Several noted bears have said that stocks look slightly cheap compared with historical trends. They are buying, but slowly, as stock valuations tend to overshoot and become far too cheap before markets stage a lasting rebound.
There are other reasons to believe in a Hallowe'en respite this year. Money is piling up in money market funds and T-bills, suggesting there is a pile of cash waiting to enter stocks. Many institutions have less than their target asset allocation invested in stocks and have to sell bonds and buy stocks. And indices have fallen so far that they can rebound more without breaking the stubborn downward trend that started last Hallowe'en. The US election will remove some uncertainty.
None of this implies, alas, that the evil spirits afflicting equities have been permanently rebuffed. That must await the end of the wave of forced sales and evidence of the extent of the damage to the global economy and corporate profits.
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Lack of export credit threatens Latin America
By Mark Mulligan in Madrid
Published: October 30 2008 23:31 | Last updated: October 30 2008 23:31
A shortage of export credit threatens to accelerate the downturn in Latin America, which is already suffering the impact of softening commodity prices, according to a former head of the regional development bank.
Enrique Iglesias, head of the Iberoamerican Summit Secretariat in Madrid and a former chief of the Inter-American Development Bank, said the region’s dependence on foreign capital had made it particularly vulnerable to current financial turbulence.
“In the last few years, medium-sized and large companies in Latin America have been funding themselves in New York. They issue bonds, arrange loans . . . so the credit crunch is hitting the region hard. One aspect of this is that there is a shortage of export credits. For a region that relies so heavily on exports, this is a serious problem.”
On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve lent $30bn (€23bn, £19bn) each to Brazil and Mexico through currency swaps in an attempt to ease the shortage of dollars in the region’s biggest economies.
Although in better condition than in previous years to withstand the current crisis, many countries now faced a sharp downturn in growth rates, said Mr Iglesias. Softening commodity prices had hit state revenues, while falling stock markets and currencies reflected declining investor confidence. Remittances, an important component of income in countries such as Mexico and Ecuador, were also falling rapidly.
The most vulnerable countries were oil exporters such as Venezuela and Ecuador. Argentina and Brazil, which are big agricultural exporters, would also suffer “Argentina, for example, will lose about $3bn this year in tax revenues simply because of the fall in the price of soya beans,” he said.
The World Bank recently slashed its 2009 growth forecasts for Latin America from between 4.2 and 4.6 per cent to 2.5 to 3.5 per cent. The bank, through its International Finance Corporation, recently responded to exporters’ demands by lifting the amount of guarantees in its trade finance programme by $500m, to $1.5bn.
The financial crisis would be the dominant theme of the Iberoamerican summit which began on Thursday in El Salvador, said Mr Iglesias.
Despite the gloom, he added: “We have $460bn in reserves. Although inflation has gone up recently, it is still under control.
“Debt has been reduced considerably and is completely manageable. The fiscal situation is solid.”
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US closes Syria embassy for a day
By Anna Fifield in Beirut
Published: October 30 2008 08:36 | Last updated: October 30 2008 08:36
The US on Thursday closed its embassy in Syria for a day, amid increased
tensions between Washington and Damascus after a US military attack
killed a Syrian who was allegedly sending foreign fighters into Iraq.
An anti-US demonstration is due to be held in Damascus to protest against Sunday’s US night raid on Bou Kamal, a Syrian village that is a main transit point into Iraq.
The attack killed eight people including Abu Ghadiyah, who was alleged to have been supporting the insurgency in Iraq. Damascus has denied that the man was involved in terrorism.
”Due to increased security concerns, the US Embassy will be closed on Thursday, October 30, 2008,” the embassy said in a statement on Wednesday night. It had previously advised Americans in Syria of an increased threat of terrorist attacks, emonstrations and other violent actions
against them.
The US recalled its ambassador to Syria following the assassination in 2005
of Rafiq Hariri, former Lebanese prime minister, in which Syria was accused
of involvement.
Sunday’s military action – the first such raid inside Syrian territory, and one that echoes recent US attacks on Taliban fighters inside Pakistan – has sparked an angry response from Damascus.
The Syrian government had ordered an American school and cultural centre in
Damascus to close, and it had asked the United Nations Security
Council to act to prevent another such attack.
Bashar Ja’afari, the Syrian ambassador to the UN, called the raid a”flagrant act of aggression”.
Analysts say Sunday’s attack was a reminder that relations between Washington and Damascus remain strained.
”Syria’s indirect talks with Israel and its diplomatic developments with Lebanon had eclipsed the whole reason why the US had problems with Syria,”
said Andrew Tabler, a US expert on Syria. “It goes back to the whole issue
of foreign fighters in Iraq. This issue is the major bone of contention
between the two countries and this raid shows it will continue to be.”
The US has repeatedly accused Syria of failing to do enough to stop
militants, including al-Qaeda insurgents, from crossing into Iraq, and has
been sceptical of Damascus’ claims that it is more closely policing the
border.
Syria is on Washington’s list of countries that support terrorism and has
been under US sanctions since 2004, because of its alleged support for
militant groups such as Lebanon’s Hizbollah.
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Shell pulls back from oil sands investment
By Ed Crooks and Maggie Urry in London
Published: October 30 2008 08:33 | Last updated: October 30 2008 22:41
Royal Dutch Shell has delayed a planned investment in Canada’s oil sands, in the latest sign of companies adjusting their plans to reflect the global economic downturn and the fall in the price of oil.
Shell had planned to make a decision next year on the second phase of the expansion of its Athabasca oil sands project, but Jeroen van der Veer, the chief executive, said the company would “wait for costs to cool down . . . before any new investment decision is made”.
Mr van der Veer was speaking as Shell reported a 31 per cent rise in underlying net income to $8.04bn. The result was ahead of expectations but less buoyant than those of its rivals BP and ExxonMobil.
Shell is one of the western oil companies most strongly committed to “unconventional” resources such as the oil sands, and has set a target of deriving 15 per cent of its production from those sources by 2015.
Projects in the oil sands of Alberta, which have been fiercely criticised by environmentalists, are among the world’s highest-cost oil developments.
In recent weeks, several companies operating there, including Suncor, Petro-Canada, Nexen and Opti Canada, have delayed investment plans.
Construction of the first phase of Shell’s Athabasca expansion is already under way, and will go ahead as planned, adding 100,000 barrels per day of additional capacity, of which Shell has 60 per cent.
Phase two is intended to add a further 100,000 barrels per day.
Shell announced on Wednesday that Peter Voser, chief financial officer,would take over from Mr van der Veer on July 1 next year.
The results gave a sense of the challenge he will face in delivering growth at a turbulent time for the world economy, financial markets and the oil price.
Shell’s oil and gas production fell by 6.6 per cent in the quarter, mostly caused by hurricanes in the US and planned maintenance in the North Sea.
Mr Voser said Shell stuck by its “long-term aspiration” that in the next decade production would grow by 2-3 per cent a year as a result of Shell’s investment in long-lived projects such as the oil sands.
Mr van der Veer called the results, which benefited from the sharp rise in the oil price, “satisfactory”.
The group was “watching the world economic situation closely” but was “robust across a wide range of energy prices”, he added.
Shell promised “competitive and progressive dividends”, echoing BP’s recognition on Tuesday that investors are concerned about the income from their shares.
Shell declared a third-quarter dividend of 40 cents a share, a rise of 11 per cent over the same quarter last year.
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Caution grows after run on Kuwait bank
By Andrew England in Abu Dhabi
Published: October 30 2008 19:14 | Last updated: October 30 2008 19:14
The outlook for Kuwait’s banking system is shifting towards negative for the first time in a decade, Moody’s rating agency said on Thursday – a sign likely to heighten concerns about potential weaknesses in the nation’s financial services.
The Moody’s report comes days after a run on Gulf Bank, Kuwait’s second-largest commercial bank, following revelations that it had incurred significant losses as a result of derivatives trading. Although modest, it was the first bank run in the Middle East since the global financial crisis erupted.
Analysts say most banks in the oil-rich Arab Gulf are well-capitalised and that the region is better positioned than most to navigate the storm. There is also a belief that governments would be likely to bail out troubled institutions rather than lose face or create panic. But the disclosures about Gulf Bank shocked many, and highlighted the growing impact of the turmoil on the region.
Standard & Poor’s said it had revised its outlooks on six Gulf banks from positive to stable, a further sign that analysts are becoming more cautious about the prospects of the region’s financial sector. The banks included Kuwait Finance House, an Islamic bank that is Kuwait’s second-largest financial institution, and two Dubai banks that merged last year to create Emirates NBD – the United Arab Emirates’ largest bank.
“The impact of the global market turmoil, plunging oil prices, falling stock markets and the liquidity dry-up is creating fresh challenges for . . . [Gulf] banks in terms of business growth, profitability, asset quality and liquidity,” said Standard & Poor’s.
Moody’s said Gulf Bank’s losses cast doubts on control and risk management practices, “particularly in relation to banks’ capacity to identify and manage risks”.
After suspending Gulf Bank’s shares on Sunday, the government moved to guarantee all bank deposits. A week earlier it had insisted all was well in the financial system and no such protection was required.
Gulf Bank has not revealed the size of its losses, but some estimates put them at $800m (€622m, £493m). Moody’s called Kuwait’s financial sector “stable to negative” and said banks’ operating environment remained strong. But it was concerned about banks’ large exposure to real estate, with lending to the sector growing by 52 per cent in 2007 and reaching 25 per cent of total loans, while exposure to construction accounted for almost 7 per cent of loans.
Property prices in the Gulf have soared in recent years, and fears of corrections have been mounting.
Moody’s said a large slice of conventional banks’ retail credit portfolios comprised lending to finance share purchases. The Kuwait stock market – like others in the region – has suffered sharp declines recently, sparking protests by investors and raising concerns about some of the country’s smaller investment companies.
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Kidnap alleged in China dispute
By Mure Dickie in Beijing
Published: October 30 2008 23:57 | Last updated: October 30 2008 23:57
A British scrap metal company has accused Chinese customers of abducting its chief trader for ransom in a case that underlines the challenges of doing business in China.
Goldarrow Metals alleged that Anil Srivastav was seized from a Shanghai airport this month and held for days in a small hotel in the eastern port city of Ningbo.
The company said it was forced to send shipping documents worth $350,000 to Ningbo Yibao Import and Export, a customer, to secure Mr Srivastav’s release after local police and British consular officials refused to intervene.
The affair comes amid mounting friction in the international scrap metal trade caused by a slump in commodity prices. Tens of thousands of tonnes of imported copper and aluminium scrap are reported to be sitting in Chinese ports after local companies defaulted on deals.
Goldarrow said Mr Srivastav went to Ningbo this month to seek $1.2m in due payments from Ningbo Yibao and associate companies. It alleged that James Xu, a Ningbo Yibao trader, instead told him he would not be allowed to leave the city until Goldarrow paid compensation for quality problems with a previously delivered scrap shipment.
When Mr Srivastav slipped away to a Shanghai airport to return to the UK, he said, he was dragged from the terminal by a group of men and bundled into a people carrier. “I was shouting, ‘Help! Help! Help!” he said. “I was totally terrified...one guy pointed his finger like a gun and put it to my temple.”
Mr Xu denied any involvement in holding Mr Srivastav against his will and said his only role in the case had been as a friend of the boss of another company, Ningbo Guanghe Metal Recycling, known as Guanghe. Ningbo Yibao said it had no knowledge of the transaction.
However, Mr Xu, when contacted by telephone, acknowledged that Ningbo Yibao had received the $350,000 in shipping documents sent by Goldarrow ahead of Mr Srivastav’s return to the UK. The documents had been transferred subsequently to Guanghe, Mr Xu said.
Goldarrow said it was forced to send the receipts to Ningbo Yibao – allowing it to redeem $350,000 of cargo from Chinese ports – to secure Mr Srivastav’s release.
The head of Guanghe, who gave his name only as Meng, said representatives of the company found Mr Srivastav at a Shanghai airport early on October 17 and had asked him to return.
Mr Meng said Mr Srivastav had then been taken to a police station because Guanghe believed he was guilty of fraud. He denied holding him against his will.
After the dispute was resolved, Guanghe staff had merely accompanied him to Mr Xu’s wedding and to places of entertainment before sending him off with gifts on October 21. “We didn’t kidnap him,” Mr Meng said.
Mr Srivastav said he was taken to a Ningbo police station where he appealed for protection but was returned to Guanghe staff. “I said, ‘Please put me in jail’, but they said, ‘We can’t put you in jail because you haven’t committed any crime’.”
The embassy in Beijing said it did not become involved after concluding it was a business dispute. Ningbo city police confirmed they had been involved in a case involving Guanghe and a foreigner but declined to give further details by telephone.
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Mining groups face cuts to iron ore prices
By Javier Blas in London and Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai
Published: October 31 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 31 2008 02:00
Iron ore miners face the prospect of the first price cut in seven years as steel production in China and elsewhere plunges amid the global downturn.
After an informal meeting last week at a conference in the Chinese city of Quingdao, traders and bankers said a cut of 10-20 per cent was a likely outcome of the formal negotiations, due to begin in November, for annual contracts.
However, these people warned that chaotic global economic conditions made any forecast tentative.
After this year's record 85 per cent jump in iron ore prices, a price reduction would damp the cost of cars, machinery and construction materials, contributing to lower inflationary pressures as central banks slash rates.
Bankers said a price cut would make only a small dent in miners' revenues as ore prices have jumped more than 300 per cent in the past five years.
Any cut would be the first reduction since iron ore prices fell 2.4 per cent in 2002, when the global economy slowed in the wake of the dotcom bubble.
The first formal contacts of the secretive - and often acrimonious - annual negotiations will take place between Chinese steel millers led by Baosteel and miners Vale of Brazil, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.
Chinese steelmakers appear to be pressing for a quick agreement, taking advantage of today's soft demand and low prices in the spot market.
But mining executives said they were in no rush to settle until the second quarter of next year, betting that demand will have recovered by then, helping them to avoid a price cut.
Iron ore spot prices in China have fallen to less than $70 a tonne, down from an all-time high of close to $200 a tonne earlier this year.
The spot price was currently below the estimated cost of Australia's annual ore contracts, including freight costs, of about $90 a tonne, said traders.
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Wall Street ‘made rod for own back’
By Francesco Guerrera, Nicole Bullock and Julie MacIntosh in New York
Published: October 30 2008 23:34 | Last updated: October 30 2008 23:34
Wall Street unwittingly created one of the catalysts for the collapse of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and American International Group by backing new bankruptcy rules that were aimed at insulating banks from the failure of a big client, lawyers and bankers say.
The 2005 changes made clear that certain derivatives and financial transactions were exempt from provisions in the bankruptcy code that freeze a failed company’s assets until a court decides how to apportion them among creditors.
The new rules were intended to insulate financial companies from the collapse of a large counterparty, such as a hedge fund, by making it easier for them to unwind trades and retrieve collateral.
However, experts say the new rules might have accelerated the demise of Bear, Lehman and AIG by removing legal obstacles for banks and hedge funds that wanted to close positions and demand extra collateral from the three companies.
“The changes were introduced to promote the orderly unwinding of transactions but they ended up speeding up the bankruptcy process,” said William Goldman, a partner at DLA Piper, the law firm. “They wanted to protect the likes of Lehman and Bear Stearns from the domino effect that would have ensued had a counterparty gone under. They never thought the ones to go under would have been Lehman and Bear.”
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, the trade body that lobbied for the changes, rejected the criticism, saying the 2005 rules “enhance legal certainty for contracts, [and] reduce legal risk ... and systemic risk”.
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association added that the 2005 clarifications “provided legal certainty by clarifying existing federal policy”.
The changes in the code expanded the scope and definition of financial transactions not covered by bankruptcy rules to include credit default swaps and mortgage repurchase agreements – products used widely by Lehman, Bear and AIG.
Lawyers said under the old rules, creditors of companies facing financial difficulties were wary of settling trades or seeking extra collateral because they knew such demands could precipitate a bankruptcy filing and potentially freeze their claims.
However, when the financial health of Bear, Lehman and AIG took a sharp turn for the worse this year, their trading counterparties – mainly hedge funds and other banks – were not deterred from seeking to settle their trades or forcing the three companies to put up more collateral.
Such pressure exacerbated the liquidity squeeze that ultimately forced the three companies to hoist the white flag. Bear was sold to JPMorgan in a cut-price deal in March, while Lehman filed for bankruptcy last month and AIG was rescued by a $120bn government loan.
Lawyers said the 2005 exemptions also could apply to non-financial companies, potentially complicating the bankruptcy process of any company that uses derivatives. Stephen Lubben, professor at Seton Hall University School of Law, said: “These provisions affect a non-financial firm, such as a car company or an airline, because they also engage in derivatives trading.”
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Nintendo says gamers still spending
By Robin Harding in Tokyo
Published: October 30 2008 12:39 | Last updated: October 30 2008 12:39
Consumers are continuing to buy video games despite the financial crisis, Nintendo said on Thursday, but the world’s largest maker of game consoles still cut its earnings forecast as the strong yen eats into the profits of Japanese exporters.
Nintendo, which leads rivals Sony and Microsoft in the sale of this generation of video game machines, said that even in the last few weeks as the world realised the severity of the economic downturn, sales remained strong. It reported first-half operating profits of Y252bn ($2.6bn), up 34 per cent on last year, and raised its sales forecast for the Wii console by 1m to 27.5m units. It cut this year’s net income forecast by 16 per cent to Y345bn, however.
Nintendo’s resilience supports the theory that consumers will turn to cheap, stay-at-home entertainment such as video games in a weak economy, but it also shows that even Japan’s most successful exporters are suffering from the yen’s strength.
The success of the DS handheld console and Wii home console has turned Nintendo into Japan’s biggest electronics company by market value. Both hit products are based on innovative user interfaces: DS games are controlled with a touch screen, while the Wii controller can measure physical movements by the player.
Most of Japan’s big consumer electronics companies have now reported and Nintendo’s strong results confirmed some of the first half trends. While Sony gave a disastrous profits warning last week, its PlayStation division enjoyed sales which beat the expectations of many analysts.
Kazuo Hirai, the president of Sony Computer Entertainment, recently told the Financial Times that because games were an affordable pleasure, they would be less affected than other industries by the slowdown.
The picture in the televisions sector is more mixed. Sharp on Thursday reported that first half operating profits were down 36 per cent to Y50.8bn, in part because of the falling price of liquid crystal panels used to make TVs. Pioneer, another TV maker, said on Thursday that it suffered an operating loss of Y13bn in the six months. Sony had earlier cut its forecast for TV sales this year by 1m to 16m units.
TV sales are still strongly up on last year, however, as consumers upgrade to digital flat panel screens before analogue broadcasts are switched off around the world. Panasonic has expressed quiet confidence about Christmas sales and Toshiba’s TV business is back in the black.
Gadgets that do not entertain depressed consumers, however, are suffering. Every manufacturer of compact digital cameras – which have some of the highest margins in the industry – has reported weak sales and sales of mobile phones have been terrible in Japan, where the market has slumped because of cuts to handset subsidies.
In terms of profitability, the companies that have done best are those such as Panasonic, which have done the most to restructure, cut costs, and move production abroad, and Sony, which is expected to make deep cuts.
“The consumer electronics sector has entered a stage where a shift to a restructuring strategy from an expansion strategy is needed,” analysts at Citigroup wrote in a research report.
The other issue that dominates the sector is exchange rates. Both Sony and Nintendo are assuming that the yen will fall back to Y140 to the euro for the rest of the year, compared to Y128 today, but if the yen remains strong Japan’s consumer electronics makers will face an ever-growing threat from cheaper rivals in Taiwan and Korea.
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Crisis-hit Russia must scale down its ambition
By Robert Skidelsky
Published: October 31 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 31 2008 02:00
The official view is that Russia is an outstandingly successful economy temporarily derailed by a financial shock of foreign origin. Its annual economic growth in real terms averaged 7 per cent in the years during which Vladimir Putin was president (2000-08), annual real wages rose by almost 15 per cent, the federal budget was continually in surplus. Mr Putin, now prime minister, was quick to blame America for the downturn. Before the crisis hit home Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president, boasted in June that Russia was not part of the problem but part of the solution. Its cash-rich companies would invest abroad, Moscow would become a world financial centre, the rouble would become a reserve currency and so on.
All this turned out to be fantasy. The Russian stock market has lost 70 per cent of its value this year. The commodity prices that spearheaded its boom are now falling. The easy credit money from the west that fuelled it has now fled. Russia has failed to diversify its economy and its politics have long made investors nervous. A confrontation with reality is long overdue.
Metals, energy, and food account for 80 per cent of Russian exports. The growth of the economy in the Putin years was largely driven by the devaluation of the rouble in 1998-99 and the increase in the prices of these products: between 2000 and 2007 real prices of metals went up by 275 per cent, of energy by 210 per cent, and of food by 160 per cent. However, it is now clear that the commodity boom peaked in June-July 2008 and is in sharp re-verse. Since July, the commodity price index has dropped by more than 20 per cent.
This fall has a twofold significance. First, Russia's consumer economy has been built on the commodity economy. The great oligarchic fortunes are in oil and metals. Although domestic consumption has contributed significantly to growth in recent years, diversification away from commodities has barely started since the high price of oil strengthened the exchange rate and sucked imports into the retail sector, and oil revenues made it easier to posture as a great power. The downturn in the commodity economy will thus have a multiplied effect on the consumer economy and the Russian standard of living. Second, the government's spending plans are based on a $70 a barrel oil price. Every one-dollar decrease in the barrel price implies $3bn less in export revenues a year. It is currently at $65, having fallen from $140 in June.
Attention has focused on the slide in Russia's dollar-denominated benchmark RTS index. More important is over-leveraging by a few huge companies. Russia's banking system has been a poor channeller of commodity wealth into non-energy businesses. There are too many banks; most are undercapitalised. Growth in the non-energy sectors has been fuelled by collateralised loans from western banks. Russian banks and companies have about $450bn (€362bn, £292bn) of foreign debt, $50bn of which must be repaid or refinanced by the year end. So Russian businesses are exposed to the troubled European banking system when the value of the shares they put up as collateral may have fallen below the cost of the loans, and Russian inter-bank lending is frozen by a crisis of confidence. The economist Sergei Guriev argues that the fall in commodity prices and the credit crunch have cut Russia's annual growth potential by 2 per cent.
Despite the professionalism of the rescue mounted by the finance ministry and central bank - and the budgetary cushion provided by the stabilisation fund, brainchild of Andrei Illarionov, Mr Putin's discarded economic adviser - Russia carries a heavy burden of political risk. This is the real economic legacy of the Putin years. Mr Putin does not understand the need for a degree of consistency between economic and foreign policy: or rather the reconciliation he has sought has been based on Russia's energy windfall. If this has now ended, as seems likely, the key assumption of his politics - that Russia can use its energy power to boost its world power without paying much attention to the sensitivities of anyone but the Russian electorate - has been destroyed.
Russia needs to scale down its geopolitical ambition to its real weight - that of an emerging economy with only 3 per cent of the world's gross domestic product and a quarter of America's living standard. Also, it desperately needs to develop its human capital. The Putin era is over but Medvedev's has not begun. This is the real Russian crisis.
The writer is emeritus professor of political economy at Warwick university, contributes a fortnightly column to Vedomosti and is an independent crossbench peer in the House of Lords
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Mittal fatigue
By Peter Marsh
Published: October 31 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 31 2008 02:00
Lakshmi Mittal next week faces the biggest test of his career. The Indian metals magnate will try to convince investors that his vision of the steel industry still has merit, in spite of the battering the sector has received amid the global financial crisis.
When he presents the third-quarter results of ArcelorMittal on Wednesday, speaking to analysts and investors in telephone conversations from his company's imposing headquarters in the centre of Luxembourg, Mr Mittal will do his best to put a brave face on a 72 per cent decline in the share price of the world's biggest steelmaker over the past four months.
Slides in the market value of most large steel businesses have exceeded the falls incurred at many of the industrial companies that are their biggest customers. Since late June, steel shares have underperformed the Datastream composite index of all quoted companies worldwide by 52 per cent.
Investors have suddenly become frightened that they had pushed up steel company valuations far too much in the previous five years - a stellar time during which Mr Mittal made a series of dramatic acquisitions and emerged as easily the biggest influence on the sector.
In his response to the setbacks, Mr Mittal is expected to outline new production cuts on top of those ArcelorMittal has made in the past month. He is also thought likely to announce some trimming of its ambitious $35bn (£21bn, €27bn) expansion plan over the next eight years, while also pointing to growth opportunities for the industry even in the midst of the current gloom.
But what of the broader outlook? Michael Shillaker, analyst at Credit Suisse, says: "There is an almost complete lack of visibility about steel companies' likely earnings over the next year . . . It's as though the industry has fallen into a black hole." The chief executive of a large US steelmaker says the stream of negative economic and financial news in September and October has hit the industry "like a bomb".
Fears about an economic slowdown in China, which has sustained the steel industry during the boom years, plus a sudden reduction in world steel demand in September from sectors such as construction and vehicles, were also behind the rapid build-up in negative investor sentiment. That came after a year or so in which the steel business weathered fairly well the perturbations affecting other sectors, largely due to signs that demand for steel from emerging regions had been holding up.
Inevitably, one of the biggest losers from the change in sentiment of recent weeks has been Mr Mittal himself. Since the chairman and chief executive of ArcelorMittal also owns 45 per cent of its stock, the value of his personal shareholding has fallen since late June from $66bn to $16bn.
The changed perceptions about the steel business come after several years in which its image as one of the world's worst performing industries - which it had for three decades until about 2001 - appeared to be on the point of being jettisoned for good. Until then almost no one, with Mr Mittal being a big exception, believed the steel business was capable of making returns on a par with other globally spread sectors such as chemicals or engineering.
But then began a series of big mergers in the steel industry - led by Mr Mittal - that gave steel companies the market power to push through price increases. Sustained demand for steel from an expanding world economy, helped by a surge in consumption from China, which now both produces and uses almost 40 per cent of the world's steel, helped to lock in the higher prices. It meant steel companies started turning in profits that they could only have dreamt of a decade earlier.
The high point for Mr Mittal came just over two years ago when he pulled off the industry's biggest ever merger by combining Mittal Steel, his then flagship company, with Arcelor, its main rival, at a cost of nearly €27bn. ArcelorMittal, the resulting business, now accounts for nearly 10 per cent of world steel production, three times more than Nippon Steel of Japan, its closest competitor.
Until little more than a month ago, most executives in the industry were taking their lead from the Indian billionaire and staying unruffled. Speaking on October 6, Mr Mittal said he believed global steel demand could expand in 2009 by a sprightly 4-4.5 per cent after a 5 per cent increase in 2008 - so long as the problems in banking did not spin further out of control.
But this sanguine statement was followed by a run of poor financial and economic news that appears to have pushed many of the businesses that buy steel, in sectors including construction, cars and white goods, into a state of near paralysis. As a result, global steel production in September fell by 3.2 per cent, the biggest year-on-year fall since March 1999.
The steel industry has annual sales of about $1,000bn, making it one of the world's biggest production businesses - the use of steel in construction and manufacturing dwarfs that of all other metals. The impact of the drop in demand is being felt not just by steel producers but many companies that sell equipment to the industry. "In the past month, orders and inquiries have all but come to a halt," says Brian Lunn, managing director of UK-based Bronx Engineering, which makes inspection systems for steel mills.
What happens now? James Moss, a partner at First River, a US steel consultancy, has tried to answer this by analysing the three periods in the past 50 years during which global steel production suffered large falls. The first came in 1974-75, the second was 1979-82 and the third 1989-92. In these periods, the respective cumulative declines in production were 9 per cent, 14 per cent and 8 per cent. The consequences were widespread company collapses and tens of thousands of job losses.
But there are several reasons why the impact on the steel industry appears unlikely to be so bad this time around, say analysts. Mr Moss points out that the world economy is now much more dependent on growth from emerging regions such as east Asia and south America. Such areas of the world are likely to support the sector a lot better than in the previous periods, even if overall world economic growth rates will almost certainly slow.
During the earlier times of steel industry contraction, global growth in gross domestic product was only 1-2 per cent a year. However, in the next few years, even if the aftermath of the crisis lingers, annual world economic growth, helped by the developing regions, should be more like 3-4 per cent, Mr Moss says.
Also, the steel industry appears in a much better position than in the past to cope with a protracted period of decreased demand. In 2002, the industry had an estimated 200m tonnes of excess capacity, arising from plants that had been kept open even though there was not enough demand for the product. Today the figure is closer to 50m tonnes, according to Mr Shillaker of Credit Suisse. This is out of 1.3bn tonnes produced last year worldwide,
Even in China, which has many small and inefficient mills, 150 blast furnaces have shut in recent months because they were not making money, according to Zhang Xiaogang, chairman of Anshan Steel, one of China's biggest steel producers, who is also chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association. The relative lack of overcapacity should make it easier for the steel industry as a whole to stop prices falling precipitously.
Another factor helping the industry, says Michelle Applebaum, a Chicago-based consultant, is the near threefold rise in steel prices seen in the past five years. This has given steel companies a greater ability to cut production on a temporary basis rather than undertaking expensive plant shutdowns.
"In the past, about 80 per cent of the cost of producing a tonne of steel was covered by fixed costs connected to depreciation and investment charges and 20 per cent by variable costs. Now the position is more like the other way around," Ms Applebaum says. "This means the economics of steel production are today much more geared towards steelmakers being able to cut manufacturing output relatively easily, and on a short-term basis, so as to balance production with the requirement of the market. By doing this, the steel companies have a direct way to limit the fall in steel prices."
For this reason, Ms Applebaum and other commentators expect the big steelmakers to continue with their recent efforts to reduce production, normally by cutting output a little at a number of plants rather than through outright plant closures and redundancies. ArcelorMittal has already led the way, cutting production in much of its global network of plants by as much as 15 per cent year-on-year in the current quarter. The company's action has been followed by others, notably Severstal, Russia's biggest steelmaker, as well as US Steel, America's largest producer, and Corus, the European steelmaking arm of India's Tata group.
Others including Nippon Steel and JFE, also of Japan, could follow suit in the coming weeks. As a result, global steel production could in the first quarter of next year be falling at an annual rate of 20 per cent, many in the industry believe, which could be roughly in line with overall reductions in demand.
What of prices? According to Meps, a UK steel consultancy, the global average is likely to fall to $821 a tonne by January, from a high of $1,117 in July this year. On the basis that steel demand starts to pick up later in 2009, prices could start to edge up again, presaging a much better period of financial health for the world's steel makers. Meps is forecasting that world steel production - roughly equating with demand - should rise 4.2 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent next year.
While this is a much slower rate than the 7.5 per cent increase in 2007, it is a long way short of catastrophic. Somewhat gloomier, however, is World Steel Dynamics, a US consultancy, which is pencilling in falls in steel consumption this year and next of 2.6 per cent and 1 per cent respectively, followed by a 11.1 per cent surge in demand in 2010.
When Mr Mittal talks to investors and analysts next week, he is likely to come in for tough questioning about how much he will cut production in the next few months. He will also be asked to explain the status of the company's expansion programme, in particular two big plants being planned for India, which look likely to be scaled back.
Whatever he says, the past month is bound to have removed a certain amount of gloss from Mr Mittal's reputation - and made investors think rather harder than before about the value of his company's shares.
Deal blast
Acquisitions by which Lakshmi Mittal (above) built his empire:
2003 Polskie Huty Stali (Poland), $1bn
2004 International Steel Group (US), $4.5bn
2005 Hunan Valin* (China), $338m Kryvorizhstal (Ukraine), $4.8bn
2006 Arcelor (Luxembourg), €26.9bn
Sicartsa (Mexico), $1.4bn
2007 China Oriental* (China), $647m
2008 Macarthur Coal* (Australia), $606m
Erdemir* (Turkey), $869m
Sources: Dealogic, FT data * Minority stake
Special ways to stay robust in a downturn
Not everyone in the steel industry is suffering panic attacks as share prices in the sector come under assault from nervous investors. Executives of some steelmakers - particularly the businesses that make higher-value, high-specification grades of the metal - say they see decent growth opportunities even in the current economic gloom.
Olof Faxander is chief executive of SSAB, a Swedish maker of specialised steels used in applications such as high-strength parts for construction equipment. He says the company's concentration on niche products makes it less sensitive to a poor economic climate. "Even if growth in steel consumption as a whole declines, the motivating forces for a substitution from simpler steel to more advanced high-strength steel remain," Mr Faxander says.
An example is Hardox, a special type of steel made by SSAB that is used, for example, to make parts of tipper trucks. By using Hardox rather than ordinary steel, the overall weight of such a vehicle can be cut by 3.4 tonnes, Mr Faxander says. "As a result, a truck of this sort will not only use less fuel but cut emissions of carbon dioxide by 2.7 tonnes a year. As the world becomes more interested in cutting down on energy use and C0 2 output, then I envisage a big demand for this type of steel."
Karl-Ulrich Köhler, chairman of the steel division of ThyssenKrupp, the big German steelmaker, also opts for a positive view. "Yes, the economic situation has deteriorated and steel industry customers are cutting back on orders. Yet the people I talk to about future trends [in steel consumption] are still talking about growth," he says. "I don't hear people talking about no growth."
Wolfgang Leese, chief executive of Salzgitter, another large German producer, says his focus on making types of steel for which competition is limited - such as pipes for the oil and gas industry - will protect it from the worst repercussions of a slowdown. "Because of a backlog of orders for this kind of pipe, for products of this sort, we are sold out for 2009," Mr Leese says.
But all these executives know they will come in for far tougher questioning from investors than a few months ago about how they see their businesses evolving. For all the upbeat nature of the industry leaders' talk, shareholders are likely to be much more sceptical that the speciality end of the steel sector will be immune from tough times ahead.
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ＧＭ、政府支援獲得へ全力 クライスラーと合併巡り
米ゼネラル・モーターズ（ＧＭ）が米クライスラーとの合併を実現するため、米政府への支援要請を強めている。取引金融機関の支持を完全に得るには、政府による支援をどれだけ引き出せるかが焦点になっているためだ。非金融産業に対する異例の政府支援を後ろ盾に、巨大合併が実現するのか。事態は最終局面を迎えつつある。
「米経済に欠かせない重要産業を支えるため、政府は使えるものはすべて使うべきだ」。政府支援への批判も一部で出る中、ＧＭの渉外担当幹部の姿勢は明快だ。(10:06)
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Why Detroit is not Wall Street
Published: October 31 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 31 2008 02:00
There is a sense of déjà vu about Detroit. In the summer of 1979, Chrysler, having staked its business on gas-guzzling cars, was in deep trouble and angling for a government bail-out. Today, Chrysler finds itself in the same tough spot, but this time it has been joined by General Motors and Ford.
Three decades ago, Chrysler received $1.5bn in loan guarantees. The conditions attached were harsh. Jobs were cut and creditors suffered. With hindsight, the bail-out may have been a mistake and bankruptcy a better option. Today, however, there should be no doubt that a second bail-out would be wrong.
Politically, the issue now is even more sensitive because governments around the world have just bailed out the banks. Why should well-heeled bankers be saved when they caused the crisis while blue-collar workers are left to their fate?
The answer is straightforward, if not to everyone's liking. Banks are vital for the functioning of the real economy. The current banking crisis has shown how quickly lending can seize up and how damaging the consequences can be.
Had governments allowed more banks to fail after Lehman Brothers went under, the financial system would probably have collapsed. Swift government action means there is a chance of saving the economy from a severe depression. The car industry, however, is not as systemically important because it is not interconnected in the same way.
While government aid would help millions of people who are directly or indirectly dependent on the big three US carmakers, there are many more who would not benefit. Airlines might be the next to knock on the government's door and other industries would surely follow.
Moreover, the banking sector is expected to return to profitability in years to come. The overall cost to taxpayers of the banks' bailout may therefore be small. US carmakers have struggled for years and have been in relative decline compared with foreign competitors.
Consolidation will have to take place, and arguably should have happened long ago. Jobs will have to be shed, either after a merger between GM and Chrysler, or if one of the big three fails. Tested bankruptcy procedures are in place to deal with such an eventuality. Bailing out one or more of the carmakers would only delay the inevitable - and risks a substantial loss of taxpayers' money.
The funds would be better spent on helping those most affected. In the event of bankruptcy, the government should offer support for the company's crippling pension obligations. The carmakers' plight shows the limits of the US corporate welfare system and the vital need for health insurance reform.
Had the US government allowed Chrysler to fail in 1979, the domestic car industry might be in better shape now. Instead, authorities are now facing the same difficult questions yet again. This time, they should be tough and resist bail-outs in an industry laden with over-capacity. Creating a welfare system that is fair and sustainable for all involved - citizens, companies and the state - would provide far better value for money.
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Toyota says it will reopen US plants to ship to Mideast
AFP
Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. said on Friday it would reopen three US factories after a three-month suspension due to falling US demand, using them to produce exports for the Middle East and Latin America.
The factories in Texas, Indiana and Alabama will resume producing Sequoia sports utility vehicles and Tundra pick-up trucks by mid-November, Japan's largest automaker said.
Toyota halted operations at the three factories in August as car sales plummeted in the United States amid the global financial crisis.
But Toyota said it has decided to reopen the factories to produce 15,000 Sequoia SUVs a year for sale in the Middle East.
The factories will also make another 150 Sequoia SUVs along with 1,000 Tundra trucks to sell in Latin America, the company said.
With the decision, Toyota will no longer have any suspensions at its US factories, a Toyota spokeswoman said.
Toyota had enjoyed brisk sales and profits in the United States as strong interest in its fuel-efficient vehicles put it on course to overtake ailing General Motors as the world's top-selling automaker.
But Toyota's sales are expected to fall this year for the first time in a decade due to the global slowdown. Toyota's sales in the United States plunged 29.5 percent in September.
Toyota has been careful not to gloat about its success and stresses its role in creating jobs in the United States, hoping to avoid a protectionist backlash in its crucial market.
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日本原燃、再処理工場の試運転終了延期へ
日本原燃（青森県六ケ所村）の児島伊佐美社長は31日の記者会見で、11月末を予定している核燃料再処理工場の試運転の終了時期について、「厳しくなってきた」と述べ、延期を示唆した。高レベル放射性廃棄物のガラス固化体を製造する試験に時間がかかっているためで、試運転終了は年明けまでずれ込む可能性もある。
ガラス固化の製造試験は今月10日から試験を開始。ほぼ安定した運転を確認しているが、さらに安定した運転を続けるには、データ分析などに時間をかける必要があると判断した。児島社長は「スケジュールありきではない」と、安全確保を前提に試験を進める考えを強調した。(15:04)
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自己資本比率規制の緩和、国際基準行も検討 中川金融相
中川昭一財務・金融担当相は31日の閣議後の記者会見で、自己資本比率規制の緩和について、国際基準行についても「何かできないか考えている」と語り、検討課題の一つであることを明らかにした。緩和対象の国内基準行に加えて、国際基準を適用する一部の地銀や大手銀行についても何らかの措置を検討することで、貸し渋りを防ぐ狙いがある。
中川氏はさらに証券化商品などの時価会計について「根本的なルールの見直しが必要」と述べ、世界的な議論が必要との見解を示した。(15:04)
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日銀、0.2％利下げ 決定会合４対４、総裁が裁定
日銀は31日の金融政策決定会合で、政策金利である無担保コール翌日物金利の誘導目標を年0.5％から0.2％引き下げ、0.3％とすることを決めた。最近の円高・株安など世界的な金融市場の動揺で日本経済の下振れ懸念が急速に増しており、利下げによって景気を下支えする。政策金利の引き下げは量的緩和で金利をゼロ％に誘導した2001年3月以来、7年7カ月ぶり。
今回の利下げは政策委員8人のうち賛成4人、反対4人の同数となり、最終的に議長の白川方明総裁が決めた。日銀は決定会合後の公表文で国内経済の現状について「景気の下振れリスクが高まっている。当面停滞色が続く」との認識を表明。これまでの「停滞している」との景気判断を下方修正した。
今回の決定会合では10年度までの経済・物価情勢の展望（展望リポート）についても議論しており、午後に内容を公表する。経済成長率の予想を下方修正し、08年度は従来の1.2％からゼロ％台前半に、09年度は1.5％からゼロ％台後半にする方向だ。(14:08)
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みずほＦＧ、純利益71％減 ９月中間、株式の減損処理かさむ
みずほフィナンシャルグループは31日、2008年9月中間期の連結純利益が前年同期比71％減の940億円になったもようだと発表した。米欧を起点とする株式市場の混乱で保有株式の減損処理がかさんだうえ、国内景気の失速などで不良債権処理損失が膨らんだ。同時に下方修正した09年3月期の連結純利益も19％減の2500億円に落ち込む。
国際的な市場混乱は日本国内の大手銀の業績にも波及している。同日午後、業績下方修正を発表する予定の三菱ＵＦＪフィナンシャル・グループ、りそなホールディングスを含めて六大銀行グループすべてで利益が大幅に下振れする。
みずほＦＧが5月に発表した中間期の連結純利益の当初予想は前年同期比23％減の2500億円。減益幅が大きく拡大するのは、不良債権処理損失（傘下3 行合算ベース）が1300億円と前年同期比2.4倍に膨らんだことが背景。国内取引先の経営破綻が増えるなど、貸倒引当金の積み増しを迫られた。破綻したリーマン・ブラザーズ関連の損失も200億円計上した。(13:10)
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９月の家計調査、消費支出は７カ月連続減少
総務省が31日発表した9月の家計調査によると、2人以上世帯の消費支出は物価変動の影響を除いた実質で前年同月比2.3％減り、7カ月連続で減少した。1世帯あたりの消費支出は28万1433円。収入が伸び悩む一方で、物価が高止まりしており、家計の消費意欲が低調なことを示した。ガソリン価格の下落は好材料だが、食料品などの節約指向が一段と強まっている。
今夏の実質消費支出は、7月こそ猛暑の影響で夏物商品が好調な売れ行きをみせたが、天候不順に見舞われた8月は大幅に減っていた。総務省は「9月はやや持ち直したとはいえ、低い水準で横ばいにとどまっている」と家計消費の先行きに慎重な見方を示している。
9月は食料品への支出が全般的に低調。中国製の乳製品から有害物質メラミンが検出されるなど、食の安全に対する不安も影響しているとみられる。その他の消費支出も大きく減っており、総務省は高齢者が孫の世代に渡す小遣いを減らしたとみている。(12:24)
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大量空売りの情報開示、11月7日から前倒し実施 財務・金融相
中川昭一財務・金融担当相は31日の閣議後会見で、大量の空売りを実施した投資家への情報開示義務について、当初予定していた11月中旬の予定を前倒しして、11月7日から実施すると表明した。
金融庁が31日中に内閣府令を改正する。発行済み株式総数の0.25％以上の持ち高がある投資家を対象に規制するとしていたが、公表する情報は法人名や住所、持ち高とする。個人投資家にも個人名などの開示を求める方向で検討している。
空売り規制の強化策は政府が30日発表した追加経済対策に盛り込まれており、大量空売りの規制強化もその一環。(11:49)
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中部電力の４－９月、純利益75％減 燃料高響く
中部電力が３１日発表した2008年４―９月期の連結決算は、純利益が前年同期比75％減の231億円だった。原油など燃料の価格上昇が響いた。売上高は３％増の１兆2222億円だった。
2009年３月期の連結売上高は前期比７％増の２兆6000億円、純利益は69％減の220億円となりそうだ。燃料価格の前提を引き下げ、最終損益は従来予想（40億円の赤字）を上方修正した。(16:27)
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王子製紙の４―９月、連結純利益4．4倍に
王子製紙が31日発表した2008年４―９月期連結決算は純利益が4.4倍の43億円だった。印刷用紙や段ボール箱の値上げで本業の収益が改善。期初に想定していなかった為替差損や株式評価損が発生したが、前年同期に比べて少なかったこともあり、大幅増益だった。
売上高は５％増の6762億円。チラシやカタログ向けの印刷用紙や段ボール箱の値上げが寄与。重油や木材チップなどの原燃料高の影響を補った。為替差損で経常利益は154億円と９％の増加にとどまった。
2009年３月期は連結売上高で前期比５％増の１兆3850億円、純利益で83％増の215億円を見込む。製品の値下がりを防ぐため、印刷用紙の減産を本格化。今秋には段ボール原紙を再値上げしており、一段の採算改善を目指す。
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東京都港区、子育て支援施設を開業 一時預かりや短期宿泊
東京都港区は30日、都営三田線三田駅近くに「子育て応援プラザ『ｐｏｋｋｅ』（ぽっけ）」を開設した。乳幼児の遊び場や一時預かり、短期宿泊などに応じる。これらのサービスを一括して提供する子育て支援施設は東京23区で初めてという。
都営住宅1階の旧児童館を改装した。面積は約830平方メートル。運営は特定非営利活動法人（ＮＰＯ法人）「ワーカーズコープ」（東京・豊島）が受託した。2008年度の整備費と運営費は計約4億2000万円。
施設利用は区民で500円、区外の住民で1000円の年間登録料が必要。子育て広場は乳幼児と親の遊び場となるほか、親同士の情報交換の場ともなる。参加は無料。一時預かりでは、45分―1時間あたり500円―600円程度の費用がかかる。一時預かりの対象は4カ月から就学前の6歳児まで。
親が残業や緊急の用事の場合、夕方から夜間に夕食付きで預かる「トワイライトステイ」や、親が出張や出産で自宅にいられない場合、最大6泊7日まで児童が泊まれる「ショートステイ」も受け付ける。
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1度は「11月30日投票」打診 公明、首相に不信感
次期衆院選を巡って麻生太郎首相は今月前半、公明党に「11月30日投開票」の日程を伝えていた。同党内には発言を撤回し衆院解散を先送りした首相への不信感が高まっている。
首相は太田昭宏代表や北側一雄幹事長ら公明党幹部と秘密裏に数回会談。複数の与党幹部や政府関係者によると「衆院選は11月30日だ」と伝達していたという。これを受け、同党は「11月上旬までの解散―同月30日投開票」に向け選挙準備を本格化させた。(10:06)
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実はクリスマス解散！？…麻生首相、本当の思惑は
麻生太郎首相は３０日夜、米国発の金融危機に対応する新総合経済対策を発表した。全世帯を対象に総額２兆円の給付金を支給するほか、高速道路料金の値下げや住宅ローン減税延長など大盤振る舞いで、バラマキ感が強い政策が並んだ。首相は「景気対策が最優先」として解散・総選挙を当面先送りする方針を明らかにしているが、最近の言動から「実は、クリスマス解散を狙っているのでは」という見方が浮上している。
「考えられる限りの大胆な経済対策だ。ポイントはスピード。重点を絞り、バラマキにしない。国民生活の安全保障だ」
官邸で開かれた記者会見。首相は新経済対策をこう自画自賛した。総事業規模で２６．９兆円（真水約５兆円）。政府が８月にまとめた約１１．７兆円（同約２兆円）の総合経済対策を大きく上回る景気対策に、意気込みが感じられる。
同時に、最近の言動には「切迫感」がにじんでいる。
【「切迫感」あらわに】
当初、「年度内（来年３月まで）」といわれた給付金支給について、首相は２９日に突然、「（実施が）年内と年を越すのではだいぶ意味が違う」と語り、年内支給を示唆。来年の通常国会冒頭に提出予定だった０８年度第２次補正予算案も、今国会で成立させる意向とも言われる。
給付金支給については３０日、首相は「年内といったか？」と年度内に軌道修正したが、「市町村の事務手続きに要する時間を考えれば、年内は困難」との指摘を受けたためとされる。
一連の言動を踏まえ、自民党閣僚経験者は「首相は年内解散を捨ててない」といい、こう解説する。
「給付金支給や補正予算は内閣支持率には間違いなくプラスとなる。１世帯４人家族で６万円程度給付金が支給され、高速料金が下がれば国民は喜ぶ。その前倒しに動いていたのは、解散・総選挙のタイミングを計っている証拠だ」
「公明・学会は本音では早期解散をあきらめておらず、自民党も関係悪化は避けたい。景気や選挙情勢の厳しさが先延ばしの一因というが、改善する保証もない。首相が経済対策を打ち出し、外交で存在感を示した勢いで勝負に出てもおかしくない」
【外交に意欲示す】
確かに、首相は今後の外交日程に意欲を燃やしている。来月１５日、金融危機への対応を協議する第１回緊急首脳会議（サミット）がワシントンで開催されるが、首相は２６日のアキバ凱旋で「世界の期待に応えたい」と宣言。１２月には日中韓首脳会談を地元・福岡で開催する方向で調整を進めてる。
自民党内では、第２次補正予算案を審議するため、来月３０日までの国会会期を年末近くまで延長する案が浮上している。こうした日程の背後には、補正予算や外交で得点を稼ぎ、公明学会との関係を悪化させない早期の解散、「クリスマス解散」が透けて見えるのだ。
予想される日程は１２月２５日（友引）解散、１月２５日（大安）投開票だ。
「その時期には、０９年度予算案の編成作業も終わり、政府は通常国会が召集される来年１月中旬まで事実上の冬休みに入る。首相は『政局より政策』と政治空白を嫌うが、これなら政治空白を最小限にできる」（麻生派関係者）
首相の祖父・吉田茂元首相は第２４回総選挙を「１９４８年１２月２３日解散、４９年１月２３日投開票」という日程で行い大勝。長期政権の礎を築いた。
【ひそかな“宣戦布告”】
「選挙があってもなくても地方遊説をやる。現場に行かないと経済は分からない。地方遊説はすごく大事だ」
首相は３０日、総裁選後に中断していた地方遊説を来月から再開する意向を示した。
ひそかな、宣戦布告なのか。
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大学生の学力向上支援 文科省、新入生補習や教材開発
文部科学省は大学の「学士」段階での教育水準を引き上げるため、来年度から財政面で支援する方針を決めた。新入生に対する補習授業や教材開発などに積極的に取り組む大学を選んで補助金を出す。「大学入試の選抜機能が低下して学力の担保ができなくなっている」（中央教育審議会）との指摘を受けたもので、大学生の学力低下を食い止める狙いがある。
新制度は大学や短大から学部教育の質向上へ向けた取り組みを募り、年200件程度を専門家による審査委員会で選定して補助金を出す。(16:04)
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自殺の原因は「健康」63％ 「白書」閣議決定
政府は31日の閣議で、2008年度版「自殺対策白書」を決定した。昨年の自殺者で原因を特定できたのは2万3209人。原因でトップとなったのは健康問題（63.3％）で、経済・生活（31.5％）、家庭（16.2％）、勤務（9.5％）が続いた。自殺死亡率の国際比較では日本は世界8位で、主要7カ国（Ｇ７）中ではワースト１だった。
白書は昨年に続き2回目。07年の自殺者数は3万3093人で、10年連続で3万人を超えるなど「欧米の先進諸国と比較しても高い水準」と指摘。労働者が相談しやすい職場の環境づくりなどの対策が盛り込まれた。
白書では自殺対策として「早期対応の中心的役割を果たす人材の養成」「心の健康づくり」などを挙げた。具体的には、かかりつけ医などによる精神疾患の診断、治療技術の向上や教職員への普及啓発活動、職場でのメンタルヘルス対策の強化を提案した。(16:04)
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国連自由権規約委、日本に死刑廃止求める
【ジュネーブ＝藤田剛】基本的な人権の保護状況を審査する国連の自由権規約委員会は30日、日本政府に対して死刑制度の廃止や、警察の留置所を拘置所代わりに使う代用監獄問題の是正を求める報告書を公表した。日本の状況を審査して報告書を出すのは1998年以来10年ぶり。制度廃止にまで踏み込んだことで、死刑制度のあり方に一石を投じそうだ。
死刑制度は世界各国で廃止や停止の動きが広がっており、各国の有識者で構成する委員会は日本が世界の動きに逆行して死刑執行を増やしていることを問題視した。日本政府は審査の際に「国民世論も極めて凶悪な犯罪には死刑もやむを得ないと考えている」と反論したが、委員会の賛同は得られなかった。
同委は代用監獄についても廃止や是正を要求。警察の取り調べの過程を録音録画などを行う必要性も指摘した。(14:06)
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函館にロシアの情報発信拠点 日本で初、ロ財団が開設へ
ロシアの政府系財団「ロシアの世界」が11月初旬、北海道函館市にロシアの情報発信や日ロ間の文化交流の拠点となる「ロシアセンター」を開設する。同センターは世界各地に設置されているが、日本では今回の函館が初めて。
函館は、1858年に日本で最初のロシア領事館が開設されたほか、現在もロシア極東国立総合大（極東大）唯一の海外分校が設置されているなど同国との関係が深い。センターは極東大函館校（セルゲイ・イリイン校長）の構内に設置され、同大が運営する。
センターは、ロシア語の話せる職員を配置。市民向けのロシア語講座や文化講座を開くほか、約1500冊のロシア関連書籍や映画、バレエなどの映像資料を貸し出す。将来的には、日本各地での映画上映や展示会の開催などのイベントも企画していくという。〔共同〕(13:20)
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トヨタなどに賠償命令 「業務でうつ病」、名古屋地裁認定
長時間労働などが原因でうつ病を発症したとして、トヨタ自動車グループの大手自動車部品メーカー「デンソー」（愛知県刈谷市）の男性社員（44）が、同社や出向先だったトヨタ自動車に計約1800万円の損害賠償を求めた訴訟の判決が30日、名古屋地裁であった。多見谷寿郎裁判長は業務の一部と発症との因果関係を認めたうえで、両社に計約150万円の賠償を命じた。
判決理由で、多見谷裁判長は1回目の発症について「業務上の過重負荷が発症を招来した」と認定。「業務の軽減など何らかの援助を与えなければ、心身の健康を損なうおそれがあると判断できた」とし、安全配慮義務違反を認めた。
2回目の発症との因果関係は認めなかった。(07:00)
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ラブホ前では…民主、女性新人候補向けガイドの中身
民主党が次期衆院選の新人女性候補者向けに、今月上旬から秘密裏に配っている「サバイバルガイド」の中身がすごい。同党は、薬害肝炎九州原告団の福田衣里子氏や、元南海放送アナウンサーの永江孝子氏など、注目の女性候補を次々に擁立しているが、選挙戦で勝ち残るため、先輩議員らが大胆かつ親切丁寧に指南しているのだ。
「女性候補者のためのサバイバルガイド」というタイトルの小冊子。同党の女性参院議員による応援部隊「女性キャラバン」のメンバー約２０人が、実体験に基づき、「自分の失敗談」「女性候補者が特に気をつけるべきこと」「服装のアドバイス」など項目ごとに助言している。
女性ならではの赤裸々な“告白”も含まれているため、党外秘として厳重管理されているが、夕刊フジはその気になる中身を入手した。
【先輩が大胆指南】
まず、メークについて「こまめに直すこと。有権者の目は厳しい」と重視する議員もいれば、男性支援者らとの間で起こりがちな会食時のセクハラについて「酒席は最初が肝心。毅然とした態度を取る」などとコメントする例もあった。
また、ハードな選挙活動で疲弊する体調面を気遣い、「早めに点滴すると（かれた）声が回復する」とアドバイス。移動の車に積んでおくと便利なものとして「生理用品」を挙げる議員も。
街宣中の失敗談として、「ラブホテルの前だと気づかずにカップルに『お疲れさま！』と声をかけひんしゅくを買った」と、恥ずかしい過去を打ち明けた大胆議員もいた。
さらに、子育て中に選挙を経験したスレンダー美女議員は「子どもが２人いるが、民主党の大きなイベントの前日には必ず病気になったり、事故にあったりした」と振り返り、ママさん候補に対し、「家の掃除をやらなくても、子どもを抱きしめる時間をできるだけ取って。仕事と家庭の両立は可能でも選挙との両立は難しい」と説いていた。
ガイドブックには女性議員の携帯電話番号も記されており、アドバイスを受けたい新人候補者は気軽に相談できるため、「使い込んだガイドブックが、すでにボロボロになっている新人候補者がいる」（参院女性議員）という。
【民主党女性候補者サバイバルガイド】
・メークはこまめに直す
・酒席では毅然とした態度を
・早めの点滴で疲労回復
・家庭と選挙の両立は難しい
・移動車には生理用品を常備
・ラブホテル前では…
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散骨、船で火葬、無人島で土に返る…葬送に新しい波
納棺師を描いた映画「おくりびと」がヒット中だが、このほど、「儀典オーガナイザー」という新しい資格ができたという。また、日本海の無人島で散骨を営む会社が発足、一方では火葬場不足の解決のための「火葬船」構想も浮上している。どれも高齢化が進展した社会意識の反映か。そこで“メメントモリ” （死を思え）の話題を３題。
【企業戦士も注目の資格】
まず、儀典オーガナイザーは、料飲専門家団体連合会（ＦＢＯ）が冠婚葬祭スタッフとしての技能を認定する資格だ。
「料飲店経営者や従業員向けに、きき酒師や焼酎アドバイザーなど個別の資格を広めてきて、次は、総合的なサービス力でイベントなどを演出してほしいというのが狙いです」とＦＢＯ広報の新川美佐絵さん。
とくに「葬」関係は、送る会やしのぶ会などとしてホテルやレストランを利用することが普通になって新しいニーズがあるのに、まだまだ未開拓だという。きちんと葬祭マナーを踏まえたサービスでビジネスチャンスを広げようというわけだ。
だが、この資格の講習には、一般企業でも仕事に生かせると、総務・庶務職の人たちが注目しているという。たしかに、社葬だけでなく、取引先へ社を代表して列席する際の基本を学ぶのにもいいかもしれない。
【無人島で土に返る】
鳥取県境港から西ノ島－中ノ島と大小の船を乗り継ぎ約３時間。こんもりとした緑に覆われた約１０００平方メートルのカズラ島を、東京都内の葬儀社など８社が出資して管理運営会社「カズラ」を設立、買い取った。
同社によると、島を１０区画に分け、細かく砕いた遺骨をまく。１区画は１００人分で、１０年かけて一巡するうちに、骨と土が同化するという。
島は大山隠岐国立公園内にあるため環境保護に気を使い、春秋それぞれ１週間程度の散骨時以外は原則立ち入り禁止に。年忌などの際は、島を臨む場所に設けた慰霊所から拝むようにした。費用は地元出身者を優遇。散骨の方法でも異なり、１１万２０００－２８万円という。
散骨は、遺骨を山や海にまく自然葬のひとつ。墓地埋葬法に違反するとの指摘もあったが、１９９１年に法務省が「節度をもって行われる限り違法ではない」と見解を示した。
【火葬場不足に対応】
日本の年間死亡者数は２０３６年にピークを迎え、１７６万人に達するという予測もある。当然、火葬ニーズも急増するが、都市部ではすでに現時点で、火葬場の対応能力が限界で、いずれ慢性的な火葬場不足に陥る可能性が高い。
という状況の解決策として、宗教法人の実務を支援する企業「日本テンプルヴァン」の井上文夫社長が火葬船を提唱。日本財団の助成で今春、『最愛の方のための「葬斎・火葬船“そうまる”」の提案』として報告書をまとめた。
地上に新設するには近隣住民の理解が得にくい火葬場を、船舶を使って海上で行うという発想だ。ロマンもあり、需要のピークを過ぎても、船を解体すればリサイクルも容易という利点もある。詳しくは、ＨＰ（ｗｗｗ．ｋａｓｏｕｓｅｎ．ｊｐ／）で。
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政府、大陸棚の認定範囲延長を申請へ
政府は31日午前、総合海洋政策本部（本部長・麻生太郎首相）を開き、11月に大陸棚の認定範囲の延長を国連に申請することを決定した。申請するのは日本の国土面積（約38万平方キロメートル）の約2倍に当たる約74万平方キロメートルで、海底資源の埋蔵が指摘されている南鳥島西方や沖ノ鳥島南方海域が含まれる。「大陸棚拡大」により大部分を輸入に頼っているレアメタル（希少金属）などの確保に弾みをつける狙いだ。
首相は本部の会合で「（大陸棚拡大は）日本の国益にかなう大きな成果だ」と述べた。大陸棚などの規定は国連海洋法条約に定めており、沿岸国が大陸棚とその地下の開発について優先的な権利を持つ。大陸棚は沿岸から200カイリが原則だが、200カイリ以遠については、大陸棚と地続きであることを国連大陸棚限界委員会に認定を求める仕組みになっている。(15:11)
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大陸棚：政府、新たに申請へ ７４万平方キロ、国連委に
政府の総合海洋政策本部（本部長・麻生太郎首相）は３１日午前、国会内で会合を開き、日本の大陸棚として新たに約７４万平方キロを認めるよう、１１月中に国連大陸棚限界委員会に申請する方針を決めた。日本の国土のほぼ倍の広さで、日本最東端の南鳥島西方や、最南端の沖ノ鳥島南方に広がる海底が含まれる。
日本近海の海底には、レアメタル（希少金属）などを含む熱水鉱床があり、クリーンエネルギーとして期待されるメタンハイドレートの存在も確認されている。申請が認められれば、こうした海底資源開発に、主権的権利を行使できる範囲が広がる。認定には数年かかる見通し。ただ今回申請する海底の一部は、米国やパラオが権利を主張できる大陸棚と重なる可能性がある。【坂口裕彦】
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無保険：子ども３万人 短期証交付、自治体に通知－－厚労省
親が国民健康保険（国保）の保険料を滞納して保険給付を差し止められ、子どもが「無保険」状態となっている問題で、厚生労働省は３０日、全国調査の結果を発表した。中学生以下の無保険の子どもは１万８２４０世帯中の３万２９０３人で、子どもの被保険者（約３７０万人）のほぼ１００人に１人に上った。
厚労省は同日、医療が必要な子どもがいる世帯には、有効期限を１～数カ月に限定した短期保険証を交付するよう都道府県に通知したが、「年齢によって一律に特別扱いしない」という基本姿勢は変えておらず、受診抑制対策としては疑問の声も出ている。
調査は、国保を運営する約１８００の区市町村を対象に実施。９月１５日時点で、給付差し止めで資格証明書を交付された、医療費の１０割自己負担が必要な世帯に、義務教育以下の子どもが何人いるかをたずねた。
滞納世帯は全体の１８・５％の３８４万５５９７世帯で、資格証明書の発行世帯は同１・６％の３３万７４２世帯だった。無保険となっている子どもは、乳幼児が乳幼児被保険者数の０・４％の５５２２人、小学生が小学生被保険者数の１・０％の１万６３２７人、中学生が中学生被保険者数の１・５％の１万１０５４人だった。
都道府県別で多いのは、神奈川４３８６人▽千葉３３２１人▽栃木２６５２人▽福岡２０９９人▽大阪２０１６人－－など。少ないのは石川２３人▽長野３０人▽沖縄５９人で、雇用が流動的な都市部を中心に、子どもの無保険が増えている実態が浮かび上がった。
厚労省は通知で、世帯主が市町村に対し、子どもの受診が必要だが１０割負担が困難という申し出があれば、資格証明書世帯にも緊急的措置として短期保険証を交付するよう求めた。ただ、子どもに対する無条件の保険証交付は「現行法の解釈からはできない」（国保課）と否定した。
民主党は同日、１８歳未満の子どもの無保険を一律で解消する国保法改正案を今国会に提出する方針を決めた。【竹島一登】
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
◇「無保険」の子どもの数
北海道 １７１９
青森 ７８７
岩手 １３８
宮城 ３９８
秋田 １６０
山形 ９４
福島 ５５６
茨城 ８６１
栃木 ２６５２
群馬 １５００
埼玉 ２２３
千葉 ３３２１
東京 ９０６
神奈川 ４３８６
新潟 １９５
富山 ２４１
石川 ２３
福井 ３６６
山梨 ７９
長野 ３０
岐阜 ５６８
静岡 ９４９
愛知 ２７９
三重 １２５４
滋賀 ７２
京都 １３５
大阪 ２０１６
兵庫 ６８４
奈良 ７８
和歌山 ４３７
鳥取 １０５
島根 １７７
岡山 １９１
広島 ６９６
山口 ６９０
徳島 １９１
香川 １４１
愛媛 ２９２
高知 ４６６
福岡 ２０９９
佐賀 ２６０
長崎 ３４１
熊本 ４０６
大分 ７２２
宮崎 ４２９
鹿児島 ５３１
沖縄 ５９
計 ３２９０３
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三菱重工、韓国で衛星打ち上げ受注へ
三菱重工業が韓国航空宇宙研究院（ＫＡＲＩ）から衛星打ち上げを受注する方向で最終交渉に入ったことが31日、明らかになった。欧州系の企業と受注を争っていたが、このほどＫＡＲＩから優先交渉権を得た。三菱重工は昨年春、国産ロケット「Ｈ２Ａ」を使った衛星打ち上げ事業を国から引き継いでおり、海外からの受注は初めて。
打ち上げる衛星は現在開発中の多目的観測衛星３号機。受注が正式に決まれば種子島（鹿児島県）で打ち上げる。(16:03)
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柔道：石井慧が強化指定選手を辞退 プロ格闘家へ
柔道の北京五輪男子１００キロ超級金メダリストの石井慧（２１）＝国士大＝が３１日、全日本柔道連盟に強化指定選手の辞退届を提出した。
石井は２０１２年のロンドン五輪を目指さない意向を表明しており、事実上、一線から退くことになる。プロ格闘家へ転向するとみられている。
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石井慧：初バラエティーでＳＭＡＰと共演
北京五輪柔道男子１００キロ超級金メダリストで、総合格闘技への転向が決定的な石井慧（２１）がＳＭＡＰと共演した。１１月３日放送のフジテレビ「ＳＭＡＰ×ＳＭＡＰ」（月曜後１０・００）でバラエティー初出演。ＳＭＡＰが芸術作品を創作し、ゲストが評価する「ニッポン道場」のコーナーに登場。中居正広（３６）が「初めましてですね」といきなりボディータッチで歓迎すると、木村は「中居がいきなりボディータッチするのは突き抜けたアスリートの方だけ」と持ち上げた。石井は、テレビはあまり見ないとしながらも「スマスマは見てます」と話し、ＳＭＡＰを喜ばせた。
テーマは水墨画で、石井も「やってみたい！」と参加。トークでは金メダル獲得後の心境や周囲の変化、将来の夢などを語り、収録は４時間に及んだ。石井は「リスペクトするＳＭＡＰさんと共演できて本当にうれしかったです」と感想。ＳＭＡＰの５人も「すごい充実感でした」と振り返っていた。（スポニチ）
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大麻売れすぎて怖い？ 売人イラン人も心配「日本、大丈夫か」
2008/10/31
＜テレビウォッチ＞慶応義塾大学の20歳と21歳の学生が大麻の所持・売買で逮捕された。大学によると、2004年と05年、昨（07）年にもあって、5年間に計7人が摘発されているという。
それで住宅街
また他大学でも、昨年は関東学院大で14人、今年は法政大で5人というのがあって、大学生の大麻事件は、04年114人から05年63人と減ったが、その後06年73人、 07年92人と増えているのだそうだ。
番組はこれと抱き合わせで、高輪の住宅街で覚せい剤を密売するイラン人グループの映像を流して、白金、麻布、高輪などの高級住宅街に麻薬汚染が広がっていると伝えた。
厚生省の麻薬取締官が撮った映像はなかなかのもので、高輪の街路に立っている女性にイラン人が近づき、女性からライターを借りてタバコに火をつける間に、麻薬と金が手渡しされるところがバッチリ。この間、41秒。映画じゃないかと思うほど見事な手口だった。
この7月に摘発されたグループは、42歳の元締めと4人の売り子が、主婦や会社員など、日に70人に覚せい剤やコカインを売りさばき、月に2000万円を得ていたという。捕まった売り子の1人は、「こんなに買う人がいて、日本は大丈夫か」といっていたそうだ。
杉尾秀哉は、「世田谷や杉並の住宅街でもあるんですよね」という。
みのもんたは、「なぜ住宅街かというと、繁華街には今いたるところに防犯カメラがあるもんだから。それで住宅街」。
この日のコメンテーターには、慶応教授の浅野史郎がいたのだが、みのも慶応には深くふれず、本人も一切コメントせず。ひとこと「バカ」とでもいえばいいものを、妙な気遣いは観ていて居心地が悪い。
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10:47 GMT, Friday, 31 October 2008
Turkey denies Christians church
By Christopher Landau
BBC religious affairs correspondent
Image of the apostle Paul
The Turkish government says it is "out of the question" for it to hand over a revered medieval church where Catholics want to hold Christian services.
The church, currently run as a museum, stands in the south-eastern town of Tarsus, where St Paul was born.
The Turkish constitution guarantees freedom of religion, but Christian groups in the country believe that in practice they face discrimination.
Next week the Vatican will hold a Catholic-Muslim forum to improve ties.
It was the Cardinal Archbishop of Cologne in Germany who first challenged the Turkish government to hand over the church in Tarsus.
He has pointed out that Muslims of Turkish origin in Germany are free to worship and build new mosques, but that Christians in Turkey face substantial obstacles to their religious freedom.
The Turkish government's response to the BBC leaves no room for doubt about its intention to retain control of the church.
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01:26 GMT, Friday, 31 October 2008
DNA legacy of ancient seafarers
By Paul Rincon
Science reporter, BBC News
Phoenician written text on a stone (AFP/Getty)
Scientists have used DNA to re-trace the migrations of a sea-faring civilisation which dominated the Mediterranean thousands of years ago.
The Phoenicians were an enterprising maritime people from the territory of modern-day Lebanon.
They established a trading empire throughout the Mediterranean Sea in the first millennium BC.
A new study by an international team has now revealed the genetic legacy they imparted to modern populations.
The researchers estimate that as many as one in 17 men from the Mediterranean may have Phoenician ancestry.
"When we started, we knew nothing about the genetics of the Phoenicians"
Chris Tyler-Smith
Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute
They employed a new analytical technique to detect the subtle genetic imprint of historical migrations in present-day people. The study included DNA data from more than 6,000 men from around the Mediterranean.
From their base in present-day Lebanon, the Phoenicians spread out across the sea, founding colonies and trading posts as far afield as Spain and North Africa, where their most powerful city - Carthage - was located.
Carthage spawned the audacious military commander Hannibal, who marched an army over the Alps to challenge the Roman Empire on its own territory.
The Phoenicians have been described as the world's first "global capitalists". They controlled trade throughout the Mediterranean basin for nearly 1,000 years until finally being conquered by the Romans.
Over subsequent centuries, much of what was known about these enigmatic people was lost or destroyed.
Digging deep
"People have not really looked at this heritage, and I think we ought to be looking more," Dr Pierre Zalloua, from the Lebanese American University in Beirut, Lebanon, told BBC News.
Chris Tyler-Smith, co-author of the paper from the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute in Cambridge, UK, commented: "When we started, we knew nothing about the genetics of the Phoenicians. All we had to guide us was history.
Archaeologists excavating Phoenician settlement in Beirut, Lebanon "We knew where they had and hadn't settled. But this simple information turned out to be enough, with the help of modern genetics, to trace a vanished people."
The new findings have emerged from the Genographic Project, a multi-million-dollar effort to trace human migrations using genetics. Details appear in the prestigious American Journal of Human Genetics.
The study focused on the Y, or male, chromosome, a package of genetic material carried only by men that is passed down from father to son more or less unchanged, just like a surname.
But over many generations, the chromosome accumulates small changes, or copying errors, in its DNA sequence.
These can be used to classify male chromosomes into different groups (called haplogroups) which, to some extent, reflect a person's geographical ancestry.
They looked at the genetic signatures carried on the Y chromosomes of men from former Phoenician colonies across the Mediterranean. The sites included coastal Lebanon, Cyprus, Crete, Malta, eastern Sicily, southern Sardinia, Ibiza, southern Spain, coastal Tunisia and the city of Tingris in Morocco.
They then compared the Y chromosomes of these men with those of males from nearby places where the Phoenicians had never lived.
This focussed approach uncovered a small number of recurring genetic signatures in men from the Phoenician sites. These genetic lineages also led back to the Levant region - the Phoenician homeland.
Genetic 'jacuzzi'
But several human migrations - both historic and prehistoric - have started in the Eastern Mediterranean and spread out to Europe and North Africa.
These include the migrations of early farmers from the Near East after 10,000BC, the expansion of the ancient Greeks who - like the Phoenicians - established outposts around the Mediterranean, and the Jewish diaspora.
Because of their geographical proximity, the people involved in these expansions may have carried similar genetic signatures to the Phoenicians.
"Teasing apart something that's specifically Levantine, or Phoenician, from the background of the general Neolithic expansion, or Greek colonisation, is actually quite tough"
Spencer Wells
Genographic Project director
However, the team devised special analytical methods which they say can distinguish the Phoenician input from other possibilities.
"The issue here is that the Mediterranean is a genetic jacuzzi, if you will, it's had people moving around all over the place for millennia," said Spencer Wells, director of the Genographic Project.
"Teasing apart something that's specifically Levantine, or Phoenician, from the background of the general Neolithic expansion, or Greek colonisation, is actually quite tough.
"That's why we needed this formalised approach and obviously the (large) sample sizes to detect this signal."
This strategy revealed six candidate "Phoenician" lineages. Overall, these made up 6% of genetic lineages found in modern populations from former Phoenician colonies around the Mediterranean.
That means one in 17 men from these sites could trace their male ancestry to a Phoenician, the researchers said.
Co-author Daniel Platt, from IBM's Computational Biology Center at the TJ Watson Research Center, said the study "proves that these settlements, some of which lasted hundreds of years, left a genetic legacy that persists to modern times".
Dr Wells explained that the technique used in this study could be applied to track other migrations which had subtle genetic impacts.
He cited the expansion of Celtic-speaking people from their homeland in the Harz mountains of Germany into Western and Eastern Europe during the first millennium BC.
The Genographic Project was launched in 2005, and involves National Geographic, IBM, the Waitt Family Foundation and Applied Biosystems.
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Friday, 31 October 2008
Barclays secures Middle East cash
Barclays bank branch
Barclays has announced a proposal to raise up to £7.3bn to strengthen its balance sheet.
The money will be mainly raised from the state investment funds and royal families of Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
Unlike other big UK banks, Barclays did not want to accept a bail-out from the UK government and said the move would keep it "strong and independent".
If the deal is completed as expected, the Middle Eastern investors will have an almost 32% stake in Barclays.
BBC business editor Robert Peston said the deal showed that Barclays was in a stronger position than other UK banks.
"It can probably allow itself just a small smile of self-congratulation, having avoided putting out the begging bowl to British taxpayers," our correspondent said.
BARCLAYS INVESTORS
* Qatar Holdings - 12.7%
* Challenger (Qatar) - 2.8%
* Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan (Abu Dhabi) - 16.3%
Robert Peston's blog
However, he added that the terms of the deal were not necessarily cheaper than those offered by the Treasury.
Barclays shares initially rose on the news, but later reversed course as investors worried about the cost of the funding.
In late morning trade, the shares were down 9.14%, or 18.75p, at 186.5p.
Qatar and Abu Dhabi
Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a member of Abu Dhabi's royal family, is investing up to £3.5bn in Barclays.
If the deal is completed as expected, he will end up with a 16.3% stake in the bank.
"The board believes that this maintains Barclays as a strong, independent and well-capitalised bank"
Marcus Agius, Barclays chairman
It is also raising up to £2bn from Qatar Holdings and £300m from Challenger, controlled by Qatar's Royal Family.
That could leave the two Qatari investment vehicles, which already have small holdings in Barclays, with stakes of 6.2% and 2.8% respectively.
Barclays is also seeking to raise an additional £1.5bn from existing institutional investors such as pension funds.
'Independent'
Barclays said the plan allowed the bank to fulfil the capital raising requirements stipulated by the UK government.
"The board believes that this maintains Barclays as a strong, independent and well-capitalised bank," said Marcus Agius, Barclays chairman.
The government is injecting £37bn into Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB and HBOS to avoid a collapse of the sector.
However, in return for the rescue, they must give major stakes to the government and halt cash bonuses for bank board members this year.
HSBC, along with Barclays, opted not to seek cash from the government.
In a trading update, Barclays said its profits before tax in the nine months to the end of September were better than in the same period last year although it did not give a figure.
This is despite a £1.2bn write-down on the value of assets hit by the financial crisis, the bank said.
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13:55 GMT, Thursday, 30 October 2008
Migrant staff 'abused' in Jordan
Bruised arm of a female domestic worker in Jordan (Pic: Amnesty)
Migrant domestic workers in Jordan face physical abuse, long hours and poor conditions, human rights group Amnesty International has said in a report.
It said some of the women were forced to work 19 hours a day and had pay denied by employers who beat them.
In one case, a Filipina woman was beaten in a locked room by a man her employer's family had asked to carry out the attack.
Jordan is considering laws defining employment conditions.
This includes working hours and rest time for domestic workers.
Amnesty called for better legal protection and shelter for those fleeing abuse or exploitation.
Shelters already exist at the embassies of Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka - where most of the country's 40,000 registered women migrant domestic workers come from.
Amnesty International Middle East and North Africa deputy programme director Philip Luther said: "We call on the Jordanian authorities to seize this golden opportunity to make the exploitative conditions currently faced by migrant domestic workers a thing of the past.
"Their actions should be bold enough to match the scale of the abuses."
The Jordanian parliament is considering legislation defining employment terms for domestic migrant workers, including working hours and rest time.
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MT, Friday, 31 October 2008
Chinese melamine scandal widens
A food stall in Hong Kong ( Oct 2008)
The toxic chemical melamine is probably being routinely added to Chinese animal feed, state media has reported.
Correspondents say the unusually frank reports in several news outlets are an admission that contamination could be widespread throughout the food chain.
The melamine scandal began early in September, when at least four Chinese babies were killed by contaminated milk, and thousands more became ill.
The news led firms across Asia to recall products made from Chinese milk.
The problem widened last weekend when the authorities in Hong Kong reported that melamine had also been detected in Chinese eggs.
Four brands of eggs have since been found to be contaminated, and agriculture officials speculate that the cause was probably melamine-laced feed given to hens.
Melamine is high in nitrogen, and the chemical is added to food products to make them appear to have a higher protein content.
'Open secret'
Several state newspapers carried reports on Thursday suggesting that the addition of melamine to animal feed was widespread.
Eggs on sale in China "The feed industry seems to have acquiesced to agree on using the chemical to reduce production costs while maintaining the protein count for quality inspections," the state-run China Daily said in an editorial.
"We cannot say for sure if the same chemical has made its way into other types of food," the newspaper added.
The practice of mixing melamine into animal feed is an "open secret" in the industry, the Nanfang Daily reported.
Chinese officials have been criticised for initially covering up the melamine scandal - as they have in the past for other health scares.
Despite a nationwide campaign to raise food safety standards and reassure consumers, China's broken-down food safety inspectorate is still failing to catch and report lapses in standards when they happen.
Analysts say that Friday's news reports are an unusual departure for Chinese officials, marking what amounts to a tacit government admission that the problem could affect many parts of the food supply.
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MT, Thursday, 30 October 2008
'Oldest Hebrew script' is found
Fragment of pottery from Khirbet Qeiyafa
Five lines of ancient script on a shard of pottery could be the oldest example of Hebrew writing ever discovered, an archaeologist in Israel says.
The shard was found by a teenage volunteer during a dig about 20km (12 miles) south-west of Jerusalem.
Experts at Hebrew University said dating showed it was written 3,000 years ago - about 1,000 years earlier than the Dead Sea Scrolls.
Other scientists cautioned that further study was needed to understand it.
Preliminary investigations since the shard was found in July have deciphered some words, including judge, slave and king.
The characters are written in proto-Canaanite, a precursor of the Hebrew alphabet.
King David
Lead archaeologist Yosef Garfinkel identified it as Hebrew because of a three-letter verb meaning "to do" which he said was only used in Hebrew.
"That leads us to believe that this is Hebrew, and that this is the oldest Hebrew inscription that has been found," he said.
The shard and other artefacts were found at the site of Khirbet Qeiyafa, overlooking the Valley of Elah where the Bible says the Israelite David fought the Philistine giant Goliath. Map showing Jerusalem
Mr Garfinkel said the findings could shed significant light on the period of King David's reign.
"The chronology and geography of Khirbet Qeiyafa create a unique meeting point between the mythology, history, historiography and archaeology of King David."
But his colleagues at Hebrew University said the Israelites were not the only ones using proto-Canaanite characters, therefore making it difficult to prove it was Hebrew and not a related tongue spoken in the area at the time.
Hebrew University archaeologist Amihai Mazar said the inscription was "very important", as it is the longest proto-Canaanite text ever found.
"The differentiation between the scripts, and between the languages themselves in that period, remains unclear," he said.
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ダイナシティ、民事再生法を申請 負債総額520億円
ジャスダック上場のマンションデベロッパー、ダイナシティは31日、東京地裁に民事再生法の適用を申請し、同日付で保全命令を受けたと発表した。負債総額は520億円。首都圏を中心に投資用マンションの分譲事業やオフィス・商業施設開発などで事業を急拡大させてきたが、不動市況の悪化で需要が低迷、経営が行き詰まった。
同日、東京証券取引所で記者会見した吉田雅浩社長は経営破綻の理由について「株安など経済環境の急変で主力のコンパクトマンションの販売が低迷、金融機関への資金の返済が厳しくなった」と説明、11月初めに返済期限が来る工事代金の支払いができなくなり「資金繰りがつかなくなった」と述べた。 (20:11)
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Soros sees 'shakeout' downsizing hedge fund world
Wed Oct 29, 2008 6:39am EDT
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By Scott Malone
CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts (Reuters) - The global financial crisis will reduce the hedge-fund industry to as little as a third of its current size, billionaire investor George Soros said on Tuesday.
"The hedge-fund industry is going to move through a shakeout," Soros, one of the world's first hedge-fund managers and still among the best known, said on Tuesday in a speech at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
"In my estimation (the industry) will be reduced in size by anywhere between half and two thirds," he said. He did not specify if he was talking about the number of funds or the amount of money invested in them.
Many of the ultra-wealthy investors who fueled a doubling in hedge-fund industry assets to about $1.9 trillion (1.1 trillion pounds) across roughly 10,000 of the loosely regulated funds worldwide in the last three years have been pulling their money out, fearful of hedge-fund failures.
To stabilize the economy, regulators should oversee credit markets, which will make some aspects of the financial services business less profitable, said Soros, one of the first voices to proclaim the severity of the current financial meltdown.
"You must regulate credit as well as money and that does require more regulation," he added. "Undoubtedly, the financial business will not be as profitable as it has been in the past 25 years."
In recent years, finance companies accounted for as much as 40 percent of U.S. corporate profitability, said Soros.
"That was an excess and that we will not come back to," he said. "Regulation will certainly make some businesses unprofitable and certain businesses that rely on excessive leverage ... will prove to be unworkable."
'NEW MISSION' FOR IMF
Soros, 78, said the International Monetary Fund needs to move to protect emerging markets or else today's global financial system will not last.
"The IMF has a new mission. It has to protect the periphery against the storm at the center," Soros said, referring to the U.S. and developed Western economies that are at the center of the global credit crunch.
"Unless actually the United States now leads an international effort to stabilize the system which includes the peripheral countries, I think the system will not continue."
A staunch Democratic Party supporter, Soros said he did not expect such a move out of the current White House.
"I don't expect this president to do it but I expect the next president to do it because otherwise the system will not continue, there will be a different system that will emerge and the United States will not have the influence that it has today," Soros said.
Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management, supported U.S. presidential hopeful Barack Obama during the Democratic primaries, and his views on public policy are more like those of the Illinois senator than his rival for the Oval Office, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
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初土俵、興行ビザ取得後に＝大相撲
日本相撲協会は３０日、外国出身力士の初土俵を興行ビザ（査証）取得後に限定すると発表した。従来は留学や観光目的のビザで入国した入門希望者も、新弟子検査に合格すればその場所で初土俵を踏んでいた。本来、外国人が力士になるためには興行ビザが必要で、厚生労働省などから厳格に運用するよう指導を受けていた。
興行ビザが検査に合格した場所の初日に間に合っても、初土俵は翌場所以降とし、日本語習得などの準備期間に充てる。 （了）（2008/10/30-16:20）
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