King May Consider Most Radical BOE Rate Cuts Since World War II

King May Consider Most Radical BOE Rate Cuts Since World War II

By Brian Swint
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Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King may have to consider the most radical round of interest-rate cuts since World War II as the financial crisis tears through Britain's economy.

The central bank may need to lower its benchmark rate to zero from the current level of 4.5 percent, say economists including former policy maker Charles Goodhart and Citigroup Inc.'s Michael Saunders. The bank will probably move a step closer when it announces its next decision at noon in London, with economists expecting a cut of at least 50 basis points.

``Rates will go down a long way,'' said Saunders, chief western European economist at Citigroup in London. ``They should be prepared to go to zero.''

The Bank of England's main rate is still the highest among the Group of Seven nations even as evidence mounts that the economy has sunk into a recession. Manufacturing is in the worst slump since the early years of Margaret Thatcher's government, house prices fell the most since 1991 last month and commercial banks are refusing to pass rate cuts on to consumers and businesses.

The Bank of England, which participated in an emergency reduction with six other central banks last month, will probably cut its benchmark to 4 percent today, said 45 of the 60 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Nine predict a cut of one percentage point and six said the bank will reduce by 75 basis points. The U.K.'s benchmark rate hasn't been cut by more than 50 basis points since 1993, when the U.K. Treasury set monetary policy.

Zero Rates

``Interest rates will go down from now on,'' Goodhart said in a Channel 4 television program broadcast Oct. 27. ``Quite how far and how fast I don't know. They could go to zero. They went to zero in Japan in the 1990s when they had a recession or depression that went on for a long time and was quite severe.''

The Bank of England, founded in 1694 to finance King William III's war against France, has never cut its key rate below 2 percent, keeping it at that level through World War II.

The European Central Bank will probably reduce its main rate by 50 basis points to 3.25 percent later today, said all but one of the 55 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The ECB's decision is due 45 minute after the Bank of England's.

The U.K.'s economy will probably be the worst performer in the G-7 next year, with the European Commission forecasting a contraction of 1 percent. The euro-region will grow 0.1 percent, the U.S. will contract 0.5 percent and Japan will shrink 0.4 percent, the Nov. 3 predictions show.

Rates Burden

Consumers and executives are also saddled with the highest rates, with the Bank of England's benchmark comparing with the Federal Reserve's 1 percent rate.

``With our rate at 4.5 percent, it really is crazy,'' said Roger Bootle, founder of Capital Economics Ltd. in London. ``Rates have got to get down to around 1 percent, and they've got to stay there. I don't rule out zero.''

Reports this week have shown the U.K.'s economy downturn is worsening, prompting some economists to revise their forecasts for today's decision and predict a bigger cut. Factory output dropped in September, extending the worst streak since 1980, the statistics office said yesterday. Services from banks to recruiters contracted the most since 1996.

``Monetary easing needs to step up a gear'' after ``terrible'' data, said George Buckley, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG, who had forecast a 50 basis-point cut. ``The escalation of the economic slowdown justifies, in our view, a full percentage point off interest rates.''

Falling House Prices

U.K. house prices, which tripled in a decade, will fall 30 percent from their October 2007 peak over three years, Fitch Ratings said yesterday. Property values fell 14.6 percent in October from a year earlier, Nationwide Building Society said Oct. 30.

The U.K. economy shrank 0.5 percent in the three months through October, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said in a report today. Output is now lower than it was a year ago, the first annual drop since 1990, the report showed.

Slowing growth and plunging oil prices are also likely to push inflation, which accelerated to 5.2 percent in September, back toward the central bank's 2 percent target. The Bank of England said in August that inflation could undershoot that goal in two years. The central bank publishes updated forecasts on Nov. 12 in its quarterly inflation report.

``I don't think anybody believes this cut will be the end of it,'' said Saunders, who predicts rates will probably fall to 2 percent. ``The U.K. had one of the biggest credit and housing booms and the biggest drop in savings, so that makes us more exposed to the unwinding of it all.''

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Nordic nations work on Iceland bail-out

By David Ibison in Stockholm

Published: November 5 2008 22:57 | Last updated: November 5 2008 22:57

Officials from four Nordic central banks and finance ministries held a private meeting in Stockholm on Wednesday to discuss their contributions to a $6bn rescue package for Iceland.

The gathering at the Ministry of Finance was a strong sign that Denmark, Sweden and Finland are drawing closer to announcing a multibillion euro package of loans after Norway agreed a €500m ($648m, £405m) advance last week.

Iceland hopes to be told on Thursday or Friday that its application to the International Monetary Fund for a $2bn (€1.54bn, £1.25bn) loan to support its economic revival has been approved.

Once official approval of the IMF loan has been secured, the way is clear for the Nordic countries to start considering how much they are prepared to offer, central banking officials said.

Iceland is seeking a total of about $6bn, which it will use to bolster its foreign exchange reserves to try to restore the credibility of its currency after its banking system collapsed last month.

The island’s government has also sent an application for funds to the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank and has been in contact with the Bank of Japan through its embassy in Tokyo, it said.

The four Nordic nations have said they are willing to support Iceland but only after it agreed to design and implement an economic stabilisation plan in association with the IMF. That plan was agreed in late October and comprises stabilising the Icelandic krona, restoring fiscal sustainability and re-establishing a viable banking system. It should also be approved by the IMF on Thursday or Friday.

The meeting at the finance ministry was attended by Ingimundur Fridriksson, one of three governors of Iceland’s central bank; Audun Gronn, the head of the international department at Norway’s central bank; Barbro Wickman-Parak, deputy governor of Sweden’s Riksbank; and similar level representatives from the central bank and finance ministries of Finland and Denmark.

Any commitment by the Nordic nations to support Iceland alongside the IMF would be an important development as the island strives to stabilise its economy. But securing approval for the loans does not mean that Iceland will have immediate access to the funds. Norway’s loan requires approval from parliament, as would others.

Following the collapse of Iceland’s banking system, its economy is expected to contract up to 10 per cent, unemployment is forecast to spike to about 8 per cent and inflation is set to reach 20 per cent or more, according to economists.

Iceland raised interest rates last week from 12 per cent to a record 18 per cent.

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Demand for London offices tumbles

By Daniel Thomas, Property Correspondent

Published: November 5 2008 23:01 | Last updated: November 5 2008 23:01

The number of cranes adorning the London skyline has fallen by a fifth in just six months as the financial downturn chokes off corporate demand for newly built office space.

Developments under way have fallen by more than half in a year, from 46 in the third quarter last year to just 17 in the past three months. But a report on Thursday warns that London is still facing a huge oversupply of empty office space in the next few years.

Despite the slowdown in new starts this year, more than 12m sq ft of office space is still under construction, according to the Crane Survey from property consultancy Drivers Jonas out next week, equivalent to about 25 new blocks the size of Swiss Re’s “Gherkin” tower in the City of London.

There is already about 15m sq ft of office space lying empty in central London, and vacancy rates in parts of the capital such as the City are set to rocket as banks and other financial institutions look to reduce staff and freeze relocation plans.

Rents have seen worse

The London office market is facing a tough few years as a rising supply of developments meets falling demand from occupiers, but most people within the industry still expect conditions to be better than the last deep recession in the early 1990s .

Rents in the Square Mile bottomed out at £35 per sq ft in 1992, with a vacancy rate of about 19 per cent, according to Jones Lang LaSalle – significantly worse than predictions about the extent of the current downturn. The property consultancy forecasts that rents will fall to £47.50 for the best City office space by 2010. The vacancy rate is forecast to rise to around 12.2 per cent next year from about 6 per cent now, but to improve afterwards as the development freeze meets a recovery in the financial markets.

London’s West End is similarly expected to fare better than in the last big crash, when rents dropped to £40 per sq ft and vacancy rates went above 10 per cent. During the present cycle, Jones Lang LaSalle predicts that rents will bottom out at £89.50 by 2010, with a vacancy rate of 6.8 per cent. They are currently about £110.

In the Square Mile alone there is 5.6m sq ft of space under construction without a waiting tenant, and the majority of this will be completed in 2009. The larger speculative schemes include Minerva’s Walbrook development, the Heron tower in Bishopsgate and British Land’s Ropemaker Place.

The impact of the global credit crisis on the financial services sector means rents in the City of London are already tumbling – they have fallen to about £57 per sq ft from a peak of £65 per sq ft last summer.

Given the additional problem of an increase in so-called grey space – where banks and other occupiers attempt quietly to sublet their own properties as staff numbers fall – some agents predict rents could slip nearer £40 per sq ft before the end of the economic downturn.

Drivers Jonas said it did not expect any significant new starts “for some time” in the City. The report also warns that other markets across London will not escape the downturn as economic conditions and the fallout from the financial crisis weighs on take-up of office space during the next 12 to 18 months.

The West End is the only area to record an increase in new starts, up from six to nine in the past six months. While at less risk of overdevelopment, the report warns Mayfair’s reliance on hedge funds means rents will fall from record levels as this source of demand dries up. Other markets such as Canary Wharf, the Southbank and King’s Cross have seen no new commercial building in the past six months. Canary Wharf, however, could still be “caught out by its Achilles’ heel – a heavy reliance on the American financial sector”, according to the report.

“The demise of two of its key tenants, Bear Stearns and Lehmans, could put a huge amount of top quality space on to the market,” it warns.

Anthony Duggan, partner at Drivers Jonas, said: “The short-term outlook is one of oversupply with a consider-able volume of speculative space being delivered into the market over the next 15 to 18 months at a time of weak demand. However, the report clearly shows that new development starts in London have come to a grinding halt.”

The report says is developers are walking away from new projects, indicating they have a more realistic grasp of the level of demand in a downturn.

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Bhutan’s young king to guide young democracy

THIMPHU, Nov 6 – In the Chamber of the Golden Throne, a 28-year-old with an Oxford education will assume the Raven Crown of Bhutan on Thursday, to guide the world’s newest democracy as it emerges into the modern world.

In a sense Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck embodies the changes sweeping this conservative, isolated Himalayan kingdom – a young country, a young democracy, with an eye on the outside world but one foot planted firmly in tradition and the past.

Freed from the burden of government that his father bore, Wangchuck is nevertheless an important symbol of national unity and stability in a country of just 635,000 people undergoing a sometimes traumatic and divisive transition to the modern world.

”His Majesty the King will always play a very important role as a moral force in our country,” said Prime Minister Jigmi Thinley, elected in the country’s first elections last March.

”The king will be the force that will ensure the long-term sustainability and resilience of democracy in our country.”

Wangchuck, who spent much of his formative years in the United States, Britain and India, will receive the crown from his 52-year-old father, who modernised Bhutan during his 34-year reign, before imposing democracy and then abdicating in 2006.

Inside Thimphu’s enormous white-walled Dzong or fortress, the Je Khenpo or chief abbot will chant sacred sutras empowering the fifth king with virtues like wisdom, compassion and vision.

Three days of national celebration will follow, masked dances and offerings which also mark 100 years of Bhutan’s monarchy.

The citizens of Bhutan have had to wait two years for this day, after astrologers deemed 2007 a ”black year”, unsuitable for any major events. Most say it has been worth the wait.

”I am so overwhelmed,” said 50-year-old trader Norbu Tshering. ”This is the most important day in my lifetime.”

Five decades ago, Bhutan was a feudal, mediaeval place with no roads, proper schools or hospitals and scarcely any contact with the outside world. Today education and healthcare are free and life expectancy has risen to 66 years from less than 40.

For most Bhutanese, credit goes to the outgoing monarch, the Fourth King, Jigme Singye Wangchuck, who saw that his tiny country, perched precariously between India and China, had to be stronger to survive in a dangerous neighbourhood.

He was also the architect of Bhutan’s widely admired national philosophy, Gross National Happiness, the idea that spiritual and mental well-being matter as much as money, that material gain should not come at the expense of the environment or culture.

But the Fourth King’s rule was not without controversy. In the late 1980s, tens of thousands of ethnic Nepalis, mostly Hindus living in the southern lowlands, protested that their language and culture were being crushed by the Buddhist north.

Many were forced into exile, and today 100,000 live in refugee camps in eastern Nepal, excluded from this new democracy.

This week, exiled groups appealed again for Bhutan’s new leaders to repatriate them ”with honour and justice”, and unconditionally release around 100 political prisoners.

Their appeals are likely to fall on deaf ears, with Bhutan’s Buddhist elite determined to preserve their ancient culture and prevent the country being swamped by demographic pressures.

Inside the country, though, the new king has already won the hearts and minds of his subjects.

Handsome and charming, he mingles freely with crowds and is enormously popular with the younger generation.

”He is a good blend of a leader who is aware of the global situation and also Buddhist models of leadership,” said Karma Ura, director of the Centre for Bhutan Studies.

With drugs use, unemployment and crime all rising, and a more rebellious younger generation emerging, Bhutan’s modernisation is not without its growing pains.

But the celebrations will help the country come together as a nation after a sometimes divisive general election, analysts say.

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Nigeria suspends $8bn rail contract with China

By Mure Dickie in Beijing

Published: November 4 2008 17:08 | Last updated: November 4 2008 17:08

Shares in China Railway Construction Corp fell 18 per cent in Hong Kong on Tuesday on news that Nigeria had suspended its $8.3bn contract to modernise a north-south route across the African nation.

In a stock market filing, CRCC said Nigeria’s transport ministry had taken over control of work on the 1,315km line between southern Lagos city and northern Kano and would take about 90 days to “redefine” the scope of the contract.

The setback to one of the most important of a host of infrastructure deals between China and African governments in recent years is a sharp reminder of the challenges Chinese state companies face as they expand into developing markets overseas.

The Lagos-Kano line, which accounts for almost14 per cent of the total value of CRCC’s outstanding contracts, was backed by Olusegun Obasanjo, the former Nigerian president, and sealed in the days before a China-Africa summit held in Beijing in late 2006.

The Export-Import Bank of China, a policy lender, promised to back the project with $1bn in soft loans, but it appears to have fallen victim to a broad review of deals agreed under Mr Obasanjo that is being driven by Umaru Yar’Adua his successor as president.

Reuters quoted a Nigerian presidential spokesman saying last week: “The federal government had suspended the execution of the Chinese railway contract because this administration had discovered that the contract was over inflated”

“Everything about the contract was wrong. There was no fund allocated for the project other than a promise by the immediate past administration to give the Chinese company an oil block.” he added.

It was unclear if the move would affect CRCC’s involvement in developing a free trade zone in Lagos that was agreed during a visit to Nigeria last year by Li Yuanchao, Communist party chief of eastern Jiangsu province.

CRCC, formerly the railway-building unit of the People’s Liberation Army, has also signed a $300m road project in Nigeria.

CRCC declined to comment on the implications of the review of the Lagos-Kano line, the second public setback in just a few weeks for the Chinese company, which raised $5.4bn in a dual public offering in Hong Kong and Shanghai in March.

In late October, CRCC shares were hit by news it had lost $46.8m on its foreign exchange holdings in the third quarter, prompting the company to promise to move quickly to reduce exposure to foreign currencies.

The proportion of new contracts won by CRCC that involve projects overseas has fallen sharply in the past two years, with the railway and road builder saying such deals amounted to only Rmb27.5bn ($4bn) in the first nine months of 2008 compared to Rmb189bn in domestic contracts.

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Balkan states set to launch EU bids

By Tony Barber in Brussels

Published: November 1 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 1 2008 02:00

The European Union is likely to receive formal applications for membership from Serbia and Montenegro over the next three months despite many member states' reluctance to encourage the bloc's rapid enlargement at a time of financial crisis, according to EU officials.

They said Montenegro was expected to submit its bid as early as next month, and Serbia was likely to follow in January, provided a forthcoming assessment of its co-operation with international war-crimes investigators was not strongly critical of the Belgrade government.

At present, Croatia, Turkey and Macedonia are official candidates for EU membership, but accession negotiations are proceeding only with the first two - and very slowly in Turkey's case.

The EU regards Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia as qualifying in principle for membership of the 27-nation bloc, in contrast to former Soviet republics such as Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine, which have never received explicit promises of being welcome, even in the long term.

According to EU officials involved in the enlargement discussions, the enthusiasm of many governments for accelerating the bloc's expansion - which, in some capitals, was never strong in the first place - has noticeably weakened in recent months because of the global financial crisis and the simultaneous problems with the EU's Lisbon treaty on institutional reform.

President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and some other leaders have said EU enlargement should stay on hold until the Lisbon treaty is ratified by all members.

Since the only country close to joining the EU is Croatia, this condition may not amount to much in practice if Ireland holds a second referendum on the treaty in late 2009 and reverses its No verdict of last June.

On the other hand, a second Irish No may deal a devastating blow not only to the Lisbon treaty but to the EU's expansion, and hence its efforts to promote prosperity and stability in south-eastern Europe, which collapsed into war and ethnic turmoil in the 1990s.

The European Commission, which is in charge of the enlargement process, will publish its annual reports next week on the progress made by the western Balkan countries and Turkey towards meeting the membership criteria.

EU officials said the Commission hoped to announce that Croatia might be able to conclude its talks by the end of 2009, allowing its accession treaty to be signed in 2010 and full Croatian membership in 2011.

The Commission will speak positively of Serbia's prospects, while cautioning that much depends on cooperation with the United Nations war-crimes tribunal in The Hague. In practice, this means that Serbia needs to receive a positive report next month from the UN prosecutor, especially concerning efforts to arrest Ratko Mladic, the former Bosnian Serb military commander accused of genocide against Bosnian Muslims.

Maxime Verhagen, foreign minister of the Netherlands, which is blocking implementation of a pre-accession agreement on closer EU-Serbian relations, said last month that the Dutch would lift the ban if Mr Mladic was arrested and extradited to The Hague. "If they arrest Mladic and they deliver, then we will deliver," said Mr Verhagen.

The Commission's report on Montenegro will speak of "important progress" in bringing its legal framework and state institutions up to EU standards, but will say that "the fight against corruption and organised crime remains a major challenge".

The report on Turkey will praise its "constructive role" in mediating talks between Israel and Syria, breaking the ice in relations with Armenia and proposing a Caucasus stability pact after Russia's invasion of Georgia.

But the report cautions that "a new impetus now needs to be given to reform, in order to strengthen democracy and human rights, to modernise and develop the country and to bring it closer to the EU".

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IEA predicts oil price to rebound to $100

By Javier Blas and Carola Hoyos in London

Published: November 5 2008 19:01 | Last updated: November 5 2008 22:26

Oil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the International Energy Agency will say in its flagship report to be published next week.

“While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over,” the report states.

The developed world’s energy watchdog has doubled its long-term price expectation from last year’s $108 a barrel for 2030 and assumes oil prices will rebound from today’s $60-$70 a barrel to trade, in real terms adjusted by inflation, at an average of more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook has come to this conclusion largely because it believes companies will struggle to pump enough new oil to offset the steep production declines of the world’s older fields.

“Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable,” the report states.

In its WEO report, an executive summary of which has been obtained by the Financial Times, the IEA estimates that by 2010 oil companies will have to commit to projects producing almost as much oil as Saudi Arabia – or about 7m barrels a day – if the world is to avoid a supply crunch by the middle of the next decade.

The IEA refused to comment.

The stark assessment comes as companies cancel projects from Kazakhstan to Canada because the collapse in oil prices makes them uneconomical.

The industry will have to invest $350bn each year until 2030 to counter the steep rates of decline of existing fields and find enough extra oil to satisfy the growing demand of countries such as China, the report states.

Output from the world’s oil fields is declining at a natural rate of 9 per cent, the IEA found, following the most comprehensive review of its kind. This decline rate is curtailed to 6.7 per cent when current investments to boost production are made. However, even with such investments, the decline rate worsens significantly to 8.6 per cent by 2030.

The declining rates are steeper than the industry had previously assumed. They are also slightly steeper than an earlier draft of the report because the IEA has expanded the study to 800 oil fields, adding 250 smaller fields.

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A new generation transforms US politics

By James Carville

Published: November 5 2008 19:39 | Last updated: November 5 2008 19:39

American voters have emphatically slammed the door on eight long years of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney’s divisive politics and disastrous policies. Following a predictable and ho-hum closing stretch of the campaign, Barack Obama was overwhelmingly elected president. The most important and most textured race for the presidency in my lifetime, in most Americans’ lifetimes, deserved a more dramatic finish.

The historical significance of electing our first African-American president cannot be lost on me, as I remember what it was like growing up in the segregated South. To say that I never thought I would see an African-American president in my lifetime is to understate what Mr Obama’s achievement says about America.

Additionally, although there seem to have been no fireworks or fuss marking its demise, with this election the Republican party has lost not only the White House and more than a few seats in Congress but an entire generation of voters. I have written in these pages, as early as August 2007 (see: “How Karl Rove lost a generation of Republicans”), that the Bush-Cheney-Rove triumvirate alienated a vast majority of young voters with its culture wars, ill-planned Iraq war and thorough, relentless bungling of domestic and foreign affairs. What was once a split demographic has become a solid voting bloc for the Democratic party for many years to come. Mr Obama and congressional Democrats made history on Tuesday night in no small measure due to the unprecedented enthusiasm of America’s youth. Mr Obama addressed them in his victory speech: “It [our campaign] drew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation’s apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep.” Quite simply, young voters (18-29 years old) delivered and delivered big.

Exit polling indicates that Mr Obama won two-thirds of those voting under 30 years old against 32 per cent for John McCain. Compare that with a 54-45 margin for John Kerry in 2004 and a 48-46 margin for Al Gore in 2000. Consider this: if young people had voted for Democrats at about the same proportion of the overall electorate (52-46) as they had voted as recently as 2000 for Mr Gore and for many cycles prior, Mr Obama would not have won North Carolina or Indiana. Young voters also provided the margin of victory in key battleground states such as Florida, Virginia and Ohio. The youth vote expanded the map for Mr Obama; it put him over the top in states not won by Democrats in decades.

Additionally, exit polling indicates young voters increased their share of the electorate to 18 per cent, which is no small feat. These numbers will be studied for years to come. But already it is clear that the importance of the margin by which Mr Obama and Democrats up and down the ballot won 18-29 year olds must not be understated.

By large margins, young people believe that Mr Obama can and will change the direction of the country. Their view that government should take an active role in society separates them from older voters. Young people want to see government try to solve problems, like environment and healthcare, and are willing to pay a little more in taxes to make it happen. Their view is indicative of a larger problem for the Republican party.

In presidential politics, party dominance is cyclical. Look at 1896-1932, then 1932-1968, then 1968-2008. Republican dominance over the past 40 years (the exceptions being one term for Jimmy Carter and two for Bill Clinton) grew out of a reaction to the 1960s. It was rooted in the power of the white male vote. But that voting bloc is shrinking while emerging Democratic constituencies are projected to grow in size and voting strength. To put it simply, every shrinking demographic is Republican and every growing one is Democratic.

One party has to lose a presidential election every four years. Congressional seats change hands every election cycle. Elections come and go and usually they are without deep or abiding consequence for either party. That is politics. But occasionally there is the election, like this one, that makes a resounding, lasting impact on the US political landscape. The Republican party, now an at all-time low in popularity, has lost a generation of voters. In 2008, a new Democratic majority has emerged with young voters at the helm. It is a majority that will continue for 40 more years.

The author is an international political consultant and CNN political contributor. He was chief strategist for Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, and is working on a book, ‘40 More Years: Electing a Democratic Majority for the Next Generation’

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The Short View: Market hangover

By John Authers
Published: November 5 2008 20:31 | Last updated: November 5 2008 20:31

Yes, he could. Barack Obama’s decisive victory in the US presidential election removed an element of uncertainty for the markets, and stoked hopes that he would nominate a Treasury secretary within days. Minimal movements in foreign exchange and bond markets as the results came in suggested that they had already been fully discounted.

But after America’s party last night came a hangover on the markets. It had little to do with Mr Obama, and more to do with the sobering reality of the awful economic situation that he inherits. And after the election, the market must move swiftly to other important events.

The non-manufacturing ISM purchasing managers’ index hit its lowest level since the series was initiated in 1997, while private sector surveys of job losses stoked fears that US non-farm payrolls data, due on Friday, will show 200,000 jobs have been lost. The chances of a “positive” surprise from a slightly less awful result now look strong.

Traders also have to contend on Thursday with contentious meetings on monetary policy by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

As the UK and eurozone economies are at least as mired in recession as the US, current differentials in central bank interest rates make no sense. The US Fed Funds rate has hit 1 per cent, and the futures market believes it will soon get to 0.5 per cent – and yet the Bank is at 4.5 per cent and the ECB at 3.75 per cent.

The ECB’s decision to raise rates in July is already seen as one of the year’s worst mistakes by regulators. Now, the market expects differentials to come down fast. If the Bank does not cut by 75 basis points, and the ECB by 50 basis points, traders will be grievously disappointed.

Longer term, European banks may need to eliminate almost all of the differential between themselves and the Fed – a move that is not yet discounted and would help the dollar.

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China flexes military hardware muscle

AFP Guy Newey

China's unprecedented display of military hardware at the country's primary airshow was a warning to industry rivals of its global ambitions as a defence manufacturer, analysts said.

As a pair of its fourth-generation J-10 fighter planes made a first public appearance, buzzing past eager crowds at Airshow China 2008, the trade stands hummed with talk of the new missile systems and other equipment on display.

Some analysts believe China's ability to copy overseas technology, witnessed in countless industries over the past 20 years, could soon be powering its defence complex.

"Ten years ago they did not have any modern aircraft industry at all, now they have started to produce copies of our plane," said one Russian defence official, who would only speak on condition of anonymity.

"They will do exactly the same they have done with textiles and toys -- learn how to make it, make it cheaper and then undercut the market."

He said China was possibly 10 years away from developing its own military aircraft engine -- it currently uses engines made by Russian defence giant Sukhoi -- but once it had, it would stop purchasing overseas technology.

"They will stop buying anything from abroad and push cheap Chinese fighters to the third world countries," the official added.

While the European Union and the United States continue to have sanctions on the export of military equipment to many of the world's countries -- including China -- Chinese manufacturers face few such restrictions.

Reports have said China has sold military training aircraft to Myanmar and Zimbabwe, two countries that face some of the toughest sanctions in the world because of their poor human rights records.

However, despite the progress, China is still desperate to access foreign technology.

Chinese officials visited the huge Russian defence displays at Zhuhai, and asked detailed questions about the new Sukhoi-35 fighter, which made its maiden voyage this year.

"They showed a very keen interest in all aspects of the plane, but no agreement to buy the planes was made," said Aleksey Poveshchenko, adviser to Sukhoi's director general.

"We are still in negotiations and maybe we will see something in the coming months."

Trefor Moss, Asia-Pacific editor of defence magazine Jane's, said although China still ranked well below top defence manufacturers in the United States and Britain, the show had highlighted their development.

"It shows there is a lot of healthy competition in the international defence community," he said, comparing the display of military hardware to China's first spacewalk in September.

"At least half the reason for their space programme is nationalistic pride -- I am sure it is the same on the military side," Moss said.

China's development could also have important geopolitical implications, he added, which is part of the reason the United States remains so wary of the country's rapidly growing military budget.

"You have seen the United States trying to align with countries like India and Japan to form a bulwark against China," said Moss.

The US position had "driven Pakistan into China's arms", Moss said, a move evidenced by the presence of the joint Pakistan-China stand at Zhuhai, and the ongoing co-operation between the two countries over the JF-17 fighter plane.

"It has been a long-term relationship and it is going to be important in the future," said one Pakistani Air Force official at the show, who did not want to be named.

"The relationship has strengthened, this project (JF-17) makes that obvious," he added.

And China's desire to regain sovereignty of Taiwan -- the two split in 1949 following a civil war -- remains a huge driver of military policy and explains the new pride in its hardware.

"Taiwan is still the most important thing in their military thinking," said Moss.

Beijing has more than 1,000 missiles aimed at the island and has vowed to retake it, by force if necessary, especially if it declares independence.

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Chavez takes over biggest gold mine in Venezuela

AFP

Venezuela will take over and nationalize Las Cristinas, the biggest gold mine in the country owned by Canada's Crystallex, Mining Minister Rodolfo Sanz said Wednesday.

The move is part of leftist President Hugo Chavez's socialist agenda that calls for nationalizing Venezuela's natural resources. Over the past year, Chavez has taken over the electricity, oil, steelmaking, cement and telephone enterprises.

"This mine will be seized and managed by a state administration," Sanz said in a statement.

The Venezuelan government move comes ahead of elections for governors and mayors on November 23 in which Chavez faces tough competition.

Las Cristinas mine, located in southeastern Bolivar state, is estimated to hold 16.9 million ounces of gold, in proven and potential reserves of the precious metal, according to Crystallex data.

Since the start of the year, Venezuela has been withholding environmental permits that allow private companies to extract gold, in lieu of a law that will establish joint ventures with foreign companies with majority stakes by the Venezuelan state.

Crystallex, whose main asset is Las Cristinas, said in a statement on its website that it "has not been notified of any changes ... regarding the Las Cristinas Project or the Mine Operating Contract."

Its shares fell 25.5 percent Wednesday on Toronto's stock exchange.

Venezuela's gold production would now rise from 4.2 to 8.2 tons annually from 2009, according to Sanz.

"This is a jump of more than 100 percent of production in only three months as a consequence of the rise in production capacity of plants that are now owned by the state," Sanz said.

The Venezuelan government would also seek to take over other sites to increase its production of minerals such as gold, diamonds, bauxite and uranium, the statement said.

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Russia to deploy short-range missiles near Poland

By STEVE GUTTERMAN and VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, Associated Press Writers Steve Gutterman And Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press Writers – 49 mins ago

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev speaks during his annual state of the nation AP – Russian President Dmitry Medvedev speaks during his annual state of the nation speech in Moscow, Russia, …

MOSCOW – Russia will deploy short-range missiles near Poland to counter U.S. military plans in Eastern Europe, President Dmitry Medvedev warned Wednesday, setting a combative tone that clashed with global goodwill over Barack Obama's election.

In his first state of the nation speech, Medvedev blamed Washington for the war in Georgia and the world financial crisis and suggested it was up to Washington to mend badly damaged ties.

Medvedev also proposed increasing the Russian presidential term to six years from four — a change that could deepen Western concern over democracy in Russia and play into the hands of his mentor, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has not ruled out a return to the Kremlin.

Extending the presidential term could mean a possible 12 more years in the top office for the popular Putin.

Echoing Putin, who made criticism of Washington and the West a hallmark of his two-term, eight-year presidency, Medvedev used the speech in an ornate Kremlin reception hall to cast Russia as a nation threatened by encroaching American military might.

"From what we have seen in recent years — the creation of a missile defense system, the encirclement of Russia with military bases, the relentless expansion of NATO — we have gotten the clear impression that they are testing our strength," Medvedev said.

He signaled Moscow would not give in to Western calls to pull troops from Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or rescind its recognition of their independence following the August war.

"We will not retreat in the Caucasus," he said, winning one of many rounds of applause during the televised 85-minute address.

Talking tough, he fleshed out long-promised military measures in response to U.S. plans for missile defense facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic, former Soviet satellites now in NATO. The Kremlin claims the system is meant to weaken Russia, not defend against Iran, as Washington insists.

Medvedev said Iskander missiles would be deployed to Russia's western enclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, "to neutralize, if necessary, a missile defense system."

The Iskander has a range of about 280 kilometers (175 miles), which would allow it to reach targets in Poland but not in the Czech Republic — but officials have said its range could be increased. Medvedev did not say whether the missiles would be fitted with nuclear warheads.

Russia will also deploy electronic jamming equipment, Medvedev said.

After the speech, the Kremlin announced Medvedev had congratulated Obama for winning the U.S. presidency, saying in a telegram he was "counting on a constructive dialogue with you on the basis of trust and taking each other's interests into account."

In Washington, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack emphasized that the planned missile defenses were not aimed at Russia.

"The steps that the Russian government announced today are disappointing," McCormack said. "But, again, this is not directed at them. Hopefully one day they'll realize that."

Medvedev appeared to be trying to improve Russia's bargaining position in potential talks with the Obama administration on missile defense. His wording suggested Russia would reverse the decision if the U.S. scraps its missile defense plans.

"Moscow isn't interested in confrontation, and if Obama makes some conciliatory gestures it will respond correspondingly," said Alexander Pikayev, an analyst at Moscow's Institute for World Economy and International Relations.

But independent military analyst Alexander Golts said Medvedev's "confrontational tone" could further harm relations with the United States, which plunged to a post-Cold War low over the war in Georgia.

"Russia itself is cutting off the route toward better ties," he said.

Regional leaders criticized Medvedev's missile warning. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said it was "certainly the wrong signal at the wrong time" and urged the U.S. and Russia to see change in the White House as an "opportunity for a new beginning."

Medvedev suggested the U.S. must make the first move to break the chill. The Kremlin hopes the incoming administration "will make a choice in favor of full-fledged relations with Russia," he said.

In addition to calling for a six-year presidential term, he said parliament's term should be extended to five years instead of four and its power over the executive branch increased.

Both changes could strengthen the hand of Putin, who can run for president again in 2012 and now heads the dominant United Russia party.

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Russian diamond producer Alrosa sees profits drop by 62%

20:08 | 05/ 11/ 2008

MOSCOW, November 5 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's largest diamond producer, Alrosa [RTS: ALRS], said on Wednesday net profits calculated to Russian Accounting Standards fell 62.3% year-on-year in January-September 2008 to 3.54 billion rubles ($131 million).

The company's net profit in the third quarter of the year was 112.57 million rubles ($4.2 million), a 96.7% plunge year-on-year.

Alrosa, which accounts for 97% of Russian and 25% of global diamond output, produced diamonds worth $2.37 billion in 2007. The Russian government holds a 50.9% stake in the company.

---------------------
Gazprom opens offices in Kazakhstan, Latvia

22:00 | 05/ 11/ 2008

MOSCOW/RIGA, November 5 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's energy giant Gazprom is opening representative offices in Kazakhstan and Latvia to support its operations in these countries, the company said in a statement on Wednesday.

The office in Latvia will also represent Gazprom's interests in Lithuania and Estonia.

As part of their remit the Gazprom offices will develop new ways of cooperation with local energy companies as well as looking for new venues on regional markets.

In addition, they will provide analytical support to Gazprom projects being implemented in these countries, the company said.

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India seeks more oil, gas assets in Russia

19:58 | 05/ 11/ 2008

NEW DELHI, November 5 (RIA Novosti) - India's oil and gas minister discussed joint production projects in Russia's Far East and East Siberia at talks in Moscow on Wednesday, a ministry official said.

Murli Deora, who met with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ahead of the Russian president's visit to India due in early December, expressed an interest in acquiring assets in the Sakhalin III oil and gas project off the Pacific coast, an official said.

The project to be operated by U.S. oil major Exxon and Russian state oil producer Rosneft has been plagued by disputes recently over the production sharing deal.

"He also expressed interest in establishing a joint venture between ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) and Rosneft to produce oil in East Siberia," an official said.

India's state-run ONGC took over Russia's London-listed oil firm Imperial Energy with production licenses for fields in the Tomsk Region in August. The $2.6 billion deal needs the final approval of the Russian government.

The company already holds 20% in the Sakhalin I hydrocarbon project with recoverable reserves estimated at 315 million metric tons (2.3 billion barrels) of oil and 485 billion cu m of gas.

The Russian premier's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said Putin and Deora had discussed "the participation by Indian partners in Sakhalin I and the possibility of a greater presence for Indian companies in other oil and gas production and processing projects."

India, the third-largest oil consumer in Asia, imports 70% of its hydrocarbon needs.

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フィリピン人看護師ら受け入れ指針　厚労省

　厚生労働省は6日、日本とフィリピンの経済連携協定（ＥＰＡ）に基づいてフィリピン人看護師・介護福祉士を受け入れる施設の要件などをまとめた指針を発表した。看護師を受け入れる病院については、看護実習ができる指導者がいることや看護に携わる職員の半数以上が看護師であることなどが必要とした。 2009年春にもフィリピン人看護師らが来日する予定だ。

　日本で看護師を目指すフィリピン人は6カ月間の日本語研修後、病院で研修などを受ける。日本の看護師国家試験に合格すれば、滞在して働ける一方、不合格なら帰国しなければならない。政府は2年間で看護師400人、介護福祉士600人を受け入れる計画。すでに日本とインドネシアのＥＰＡに基づき、インドネシア人看護師・介護福祉士が8月に約200人来日している。(22:41)

--------------------------
ゆうちょ・かんぽに買収防衛策導入へ　日本郵政

　日本郵政は6日、2010年度の上場を目指しているゆうちょ銀行、かんぽ生命保険に対し、「信託型ライツプラン」と呼ばれる買収防衛策を導入する方針を明らかにした。防衛策のあり方については現在、経済界や市場関係者が議論していることもあり、上場までに最終決定するという。

　信託型ライツプランは新株予約権をあらかじめ発行しておき、有事に株主に交付することで敵対的買収者の議決権比率を下げる仕組み。

　短期的な利益を追求する投資家に株式を買い占められると、地方のサービスが切り捨てられるとの懸念が国会などで出ていた。このため金融2社への買収防衛策の導入は、郵政民営化法成立時の国会の付帯決議で定められている。

-----------------------------
りそな銀、信託と統合　富裕層取り込み収益強化

　りそなホールディングス（ＨＤ）は傘下のりそな銀行とりそな信託銀行を統合する方針を固めた。当局の認可を前提に、早ければ来春にも統合に踏み切る。普通銀行と信託との兼営により、りそな信託の持つ富裕層向けや不動産関連、遺言信託業務などを活用。グループの収益力を底上げする狙いだ。銀行と信託との統合の流れが加速する可能性もある。

　統合は週内にも発表する。公的資金の注入を受けているりそなは現在、2012年度までの新たな経営健全化計画を策定中で、りそな銀と信託銀の統合をその柱として明記する。(07:00)

----------------------------
ヨタ、国内の期間従業員3000人に半減

　トヨタ自動車は6日、現在約6000人を雇用している国内工場の期間従業員が2009年3月末までに3000人程度に半減するとの見通しを明らかにした。すでに新規採用を抑えており、契約切れなどによって期間従業員の雇用人数が減るため。世界的な景気減速を受け、欧米の自動車販売が急減、欧米向け輸出が多い国内工場を中心に稼働率が大きく落ち込んでいることが背景にある。

　トヨタは今年6月に期間従業員の新規採用を凍結し、契約の更新も手控えているもよう。3月に単月平均で約8800人だった雇用人数は10月には6000 人に減った。このまま国内生産が上向かず新規採用を止めた状態が続くと、来年3月には雇用人数は3000人となり、1年間で3分の1に減る見込みだ。

　トヨタ本体の今年度の国内生産台数は前年度比で1割程度減る見通しとなっており、輸出車や大型車が多い田原工場（愛知県田原市）や元町工場（同豊田市）で特に生産台数が急減している。(23:34)

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山崎製パン、不二家を子会社化へ　出資比率50％超に

　製パン最大手の山崎製パンが、期限切れ原料の使用発覚後に業績が低迷している不二家の第三者割当増資を引き受け、出資比率を現行の35％から50％超に引き上げ、子会社化する方針を固めた。販売低迷に、資源高が加わり、不二家を取り巻く環境が一段と悪化しているため。山崎製パンは子会社化を機に、不二家の経営を抜本的にテコ入れする。

　追加出資額は未定。山崎製パンとの経営資源の共通化などにより、不二家の業務効率化を急ぐ。

　不二家は07年1月に、消費期限切れ牛乳の使用問題が発覚。商品の販売休止に追い込まれ、経営は危機的な状況に陥った。このため07年3月に山パンと資本・業務提携を結び、約160億円の出資を受けた。(22:55)

----------------------------
ローム、国内外で1000人削減へ　今期営業益58％減に下方修正

　ロームは6日、2009年3月期中にグループ全体で計1000人前後の人員を削減する方針を明らかにした。同日、今期の連結業績予想を下方修正し、営業利益が285億円と前期比58％減る見通しを発表。デジタル家電や自動車向け大規模集積回路（ＬＳＩ）の需要減と価格下落で収益が悪化しており、経営体質の改善を急ぐ。

　ロームのグループ従業員数は約2万人で、人員削減は国内外の工場部門が中心となる。すでに上期に250人弱の早期退職を実施。下期も上期をやや下回る規模の退職者を募る見通しだ。このほか10月にＯＫＩ（沖電気工業）から買収した半導体子会社の従業員約6000人についても1割弱を減らす考え。

　今期の連結売上高見通しは前期比横ばいの3735億円と従来予想から325億円引き下げた。半導体子会社買収で585億円増えるが、携帯電話や薄型テレビ、自動車向けにＬＳＩの販売が落ち込む。(20:47)

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アイフォーン契約書、消費者団体が文言削除を申し入れ

　特定非営利活動法人（ＮＰＯ法人）の消費者機構日本（東京・千代田）は6日、携帯電話「ｉＰｈｏｎｅ（アイフォーン）３Ｇ」の売買契約書類にある「いかなる事由でもキャンセルできない」という文言が消費者契約法に反するとして、ソフトバンクモバイルに削除するよう申し入れたと発表した。

　ソフトバンクは「一部の代理店が作成した書類。すでに配布中止を指示した」（広報室）という。他の代理店でも同様の契約書を配布していないか調べている。

　消費者機構日本は、アイフォーンの通信が同社の他の携帯電話に比べて不安定な場合なども解約に応じるよう求めたが、ソフトバンクは「通信が不安定という理由での解約は原則として受け付けない」としている。(23:12)

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森進一「おふくろさん」解禁…「語り」付けない条件で

川内康範氏の遺族と和解
遺族代表の飯沼さんと握手する森進一＝６日午前１１時５３分、東京都港区（クリックで拡大）
遺族代表の飯沼さんと握手する森進一＝６日午前１１時５３分、東京都港区（クリックで拡大）

　歌手、森進一（６０）が昨年２月以来、代表曲「おふくろさん」の歌唱を作詞家の故川内康範さんから禁じられていた問題で、遺族と森の間で和解が成立し、６日都内で正式に発表した。

　川内さんが問題視していた、原曲にはない語りの部分を付け加えないことが条件という。

　会見には川内さんの長男で弁護士の飯沼春樹氏（６０）が同席。飯沼さんは、今年４月に死去した川内さんが「一度振り上げたこぶしを下ろせなかったのでは」と考え、父親が日ごろ説いていた“人を許す心”を代弁して、「封印を解いた」と発表した。

　飯沼さんは、川内さんの最初の妻の子で、福島県で生まれたが、川内さんの上京で１歳前後に母方の祖父に預けられたという。

　「『おふくろさん』は、川内の母と森さんのお母さんに会って作ったもの。森さん以外の人に歌われては困る。私にとっては、祖母の歌。歌唱させなければ廃れてしまう」「１２月は歌謡界にとってかき入れ時ですし」

　飯沼さん自身の意志で動き、９月２０日に青森県八戸市に住む川内さんの妻を訪ね、歌唱の承諾を得たという。

　飯沼さんと握手を交わした森は、「体の中からうれしい気持ちがわき上がった。うれしい、ホッとしたというより、ありがたく重くとらえています」と神妙な表情に。

　大みそかのＮＨＫ紅白歌合戦で歌うかどうかについては明言せず、「先生の歌を今まで以上に心を込めて歌っていきます」と誓っていた。

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小室容疑者、著作権既に二重譲渡　兵庫の男性と交渉前に

　音楽著作権の譲渡を巡る詐欺事件で、音楽プロデューサーの小室哲哉容疑者（49）＝詐欺容疑で逮捕＝らが兵庫県芦屋市の個人投資家の男性に譲渡を持ち掛けた806曲の一部は、この譲渡話の前から既に「二重譲渡」の状態だったことが6日、大阪地検特捜部の調べで分かった。小室容疑者らはこれらについて「三重譲渡」を企てたことになる。

　男性への譲渡交渉に先立ち、小室容疑者と会社役員の平根昭彦（45）、木村隆（56）の両容疑者＝同＝は著作権が既に小室容疑者にないことを明かさないよう相談していたことも判明。特捜部は著作権の所有の在り方が複雑で外部に分かりにくいことを悪用し詐欺に及んだ疑いがあるとみて追及する。

　調べなどによると、小室容疑者らが男性に著作権譲渡を持ち掛け10億円で仮契約を結んだ2006年8月時点で、806曲すべての著作権は大手音楽出版社などに譲渡済みだった。さらにこのうち約300曲の著作権については、小室容疑者が役員を務めるなどした関連会社2社のいずれかに二重に譲渡されていた。

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オバマ“暗殺阻止”緊急指令…無数の闇組織の標的に

シークレットサービス２２人を倍増
当選した正副大統領夫妻をガードする厚さ６センチの防弾ガラス。今後４年間、オバマ氏は見えない敵とも戦うことになる（ＡＰ）
当選した正副大統領夫妻をガードする厚さ６センチの防弾ガラス。今後４年間、オバマ氏は見えない敵とも戦うことになる（ＡＰ）

　建国初の黒人大統領就任が確実となった、米民主党のバラク・オバマ上院議員（４７）。４日夜（現地時間）、シカゴで大勢の支持者を前に勝利宣言したが、演壇には早くも特注の防弾ガラス４枚が設置され、世界でも異例の超厳戒態勢が敷かれた。白人至上主義が根強い米国。オバマ氏が大統領候補になってから、すでに３件の暗殺未遂事件が発覚している。大統領就任は来年１月だが、早くも姿を見せないテロリストと警備陣の激しい神経戦が始まっている。

　４日午後１１時。ミシェル夫人と２人の娘ととももに演説会場に現れたオバマ氏に対し、約１２万５０００人超の支援者は、キャッチコピーの「Ｙｅｓ、Ｗｅ　ｃａｎ！」を大絶叫。演壇に立ったオバマ氏の勝利宣言を盛り上げた。

　米各メディアはこの熱狂を全世界にリアルタイムで伝えたが、大統領候補の周辺は極度の緊張感が漂っていた。演壇後方には２０本余りの星条旗がはためくが、両サイドには高さ３メートル厚さ６センチの防弾ガラス４枚が設置された。明らかに、超高層ビルが林立するシカゴ市内での狙撃リスク回避のための緊急措置だった。

　オバマ氏には昨年５月の時点で、大統領の警備を担当するシークレット・サービス（ＳＳ）が身辺警護を開始。「大統領選候補を対象とした対応では過去に例がないほど早いタイミング」（ニューヨーク・タイムズ紙）といい、当初から米当局が、暗殺を懸念していたことになる。

　通常、大統領警護のＳＳは２２人で編成されているが、オバマ氏については、今年１月から現職並みの警備レベルに引き上げられた。大統領就任後は倍増するとの見方も出ている。

　過去に例を見ない厳戒体制について、佐々淳行元内閣安全保障室長は「家族警護も含めれば、３倍増強しても足りないくらい危険度は高い。彼は民衆の中に溶け込んで対話することを好む人間。より厳重な警護計画を立てるＳＳと対立するのは確実。要員を増やして“人間の盾”を厚くし、本人は常時防弾チョッキを着用するしかない。私がＳＳ責任者なら、今すぐにも辞任するだろう」と話す。

　米国初の黒人大統領候補には、予備選挙の段階から暗殺危機が懸念されてきた。先月も、白人優越主義者の白人の男２人が銃不法所持容疑で逮捕。同氏の暗殺を企てていたことが判明したばかり。このほか２件の暗殺未遂事件も確認されている。世界最大の検索サイト「グーグル」でも「オバマ、暗殺未遂」が最新検索ワードランキングで３位に入るなど、常に米国民の関心事だ。

　一方、米国最大の白人至上主義者集団「ＫＫＫ」（クークラックスクラン）の支部がオバマ氏支持を表明し、２万５０００ドルの選挙資金を寄付したと、一部米メディアが報じたが、こちらは後にデマだったことが判明している。

　暗殺リスク要因は、肌の色だけではない。

　オバマ氏はイラクからの即時撤退や、イランや北朝鮮に自らが出向いて、直接テーブルにつき平和的交渉を進めることを公約に掲げ、ＣＯ２排出制限の明確な数値目標も米国全体で進めるなど、リベラル平和主義で知られるが、このことがより暗殺リスクを高めている。

　専門家は「アメリカには、戦争ビジネスで成り立っている闇の組織が無数にあり、スーパーパワーを手にした平和主義者は当然、彼らの標的となる。ＪＦＫ、キング牧師、ジョン・レノンがそうであったように、今後オバマ氏が暗殺されても、敵に回したアメリカの闇組織が多すぎるため、真の犯人が誰かまったくわからなくなる」と指摘している。

　日本の総務省が２００４年の大統領選を想定して作成したホームページによると、選挙人投票（１２月）後だと、仮に大統領候補が死亡した場合は副大統領候補が、正副大統領が死亡した場合は下院議長が、下院議長が死亡した場合は下院議長代行が大統領に就任する。

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脱税：バヌアツ移住装う…容疑のＩＴ関連元社長を在宅起訴

　南太平洋のバヌアツに移住したと装い、株式売却で得た所得を隠したとして、東京地検特捜部は６日、東京都江東区、ＩＴ関連会社の木下陽代志（ひよし）元社長（５２）を所得税法違反（脱税）で在宅起訴した。

　起訴状などによると、木下被告は０５年に社長を解任され、翌年自社株を売却。売却益を含む０６年分の所得約２億１２００万円を隠し、所得税約３１００万円を免れた。国税の税務調査から逃れようと、バヌアツに移住したとの虚偽の転出届を江東区役所に提出したが、実際には自宅で生活していたという。

　バヌアツは所得税や相続税のないタックスヘイブン（租税回避地）として知られる。【岩佐淳士】

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三浦元社長：「弁護士恥を知れ」ロス市警本部長が他殺説に

　【フェニックス（米アリゾナ州）吉富裕倫】米ロサンゼルス市警のウィリアム・ブラットン本部長は５日、留置場で死亡した三浦和義・元輸入雑貨販売会社社長（６１）について、改めて自殺だと強調。他殺と主張しているマーク・ゲラゴス弁護士に対し、「恥を知るべきだ」と強い調子で非難した。

　記者会見で質問に答えたブラットン本部長は、三浦元社長の死因について「検視局からの検視報告書を待っている」と市警による調査の現状を説明。その上で「三浦元社長自身の手による死亡であることは明確だ。十分な証拠もなく（他殺と）主張する弁護士は恥を知るべきだ」と話した。

　ゲラゴス弁護士は、三浦元社長の遺体を調べた民間の病理学者が、「のどに血腫があることなどから他殺」と結論づけたと主張している。

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中国製食品：冷凍パン生地からメラミン検出

　厚生労働省は５日、静岡県掛川市の輸入業者「パントーネシステム」が輸入した中国製冷凍パン生地から２・９ｐｐｍのメラミンが検出されたと発表した。ただちに健康被害が出る量ではなく、同時に輸入した１・１トン全量は倉庫に保管されて流通していない。

　しかし、同社はこのパン生地と同じ製造元の食品会社（浙江省杭州市）が製造したパン類を昨年９月以降、約４２０トン輸入しており、大半は既に流通しているとみられるという。

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トヨタ：営業利益７割減　１兆円下方修正　０９年３月期

　トヨタ自動車は６日、０９年３月期連結決算（米国会計基準）の業績予想について、売上高を前期比１２．５％減の２３兆円（従来予想２５兆円）、営業利益を同７３．６％減の６０００億円（同１兆６０００億円）、最終（当期）利益を同６８％減の５５００億円（同１兆２５００億円）にそれぞれ下方修正した。００年３月期以来９年ぶりの減収減益に陥る見通し。世界最大規模の自動車メーカーの「７割減益」は、米国発の金融危機が産業界にも大きな打撃を与えていることを強く印象づけることになりそうだ。

　連結業績予想の減額修正は、０６年に通期見通しの公表を開始してから初めてで、連結営業利益の１兆円割れは０１年３月期以来８年ぶり。

　トヨタの０９年３月期の連結業績予想は、売上高で三菱商事に、営業利益ではＮＴＴに抜かれる。いずれも０１年３月期以来、８年ぶりに国内企業トップの座から転落する可能性が出てきた。

　子会社のダイハツ工業、日野自動車を含むグループ３社の連結販売台数の通期見通しを、８月に公表した８７４万台から８２４万台（前期比６７万台減）に下方修正し、北米で５３万台、日本で１０万台、欧州で７万台ずつ少なくなると見込んだ。販売台数の落ち込み分で営業利益が６１００億円減少。従来の通期の想定為替レートは、対ドルで１ドル＝１０５円、対ユーロで１ユーロ＝１６１円だったが、下期については１ドル＝１００円、１ユーロ＝１３０円と見直し、６９００億円の為替差損を見込んだ。

　また、０８年９月中間連結決算は、日米欧市場の低迷と円高、原材料高の逆風を受け、売上高が前年同期比６．３％減の１２兆１９０４億円、営業利益が同５４．２％減の５８２０億円、最終利益が同４７．６％減の４９３４億円で、９期ぶりに減収減益に陥った。

　４～９月の連結販売台数は同１．２％減の４２５万台で、グループ３社体制になった０１年度以来初の前年割れとなった。主力の米国販売は同９．４％減少し、北米事業（金利スワップ評価益除く）は初めて３４６億円の営業赤字に転落した。

　６日、東京都内で会見した木下光男副社長は「９月のリーマン・ブラザーズの破綻（はたん）、１０月の円相場急伸、株価最安値更新など日を追って状況が厳しくなってきた。どこで安定するのか見極めるのは大変難しい状況だ」と説明。トヨタ・ショック収束のめどは立っていない。【中井正裕】

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ビンラディン容疑者の息子、亡命申請　スペインが却下

2008年11月6日20時21分

　【パリ＝飯竹恒一】ＡＦＰ通信などによると、国際テロ組織アルカイダのオサマ・ビンラディン容疑者の息子オマル・ビンラディン氏（２８）が、マドリードの空港で同国への政治亡命を申請したが、スペイン政府は５日、これを却下した。「生命が危険や脅威にさらされているという証拠が不十分なため」という。

　オマル氏は３日、カイロ発の便で空港に到着し亡命を申請していた。ビンラディン容疑者の１９人の子どものうちの１人だが「平和主義者」を自称。英国の女性と結婚し、今年４月に英国で在住許可を申請したが拒否されていた。

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ロシア軍大将が「北の護り」担う北海道神宮を正式参拝
2008.11.6 18:50
このニュースのトピックス：自衛隊
北海道神宮本殿で玉ぐしを奉納するロシア極東軍管区司令官のウラジーミル・ブルガコフ陸軍大将＝札幌市中央区北海道神宮本殿で玉ぐしを奉納するロシア極東軍管区司令官のウラジーミル・ブルガコフ陸軍大将＝札幌市中央区

　日露防衛交流の一環として陸上自衛隊北部方面隊を訪問中のロシア極東軍管区司令官のウラジーミル・ブルガコフ陸軍大将（５９）が６日、札幌市中央区の北海道神宮を訪れ、本殿で玉ぐしを奉納する正式参拝を行った。

　北海道神宮にロシア地上軍幹部が訪れ、正式参拝するのは初めて。

　北海道総鎮守として知られる北海道神宮では、１０月１日から今月４日まで北方領土復帰を祈願する「北方領土パネル展」が開かれたばかり。

　陸上自衛隊北部方面総監部は、ブルガコフ大将の北海道神宮訪問は、日本の文化などを知る「文化研修」の１つとしている。

　ブルガコフ大将らロシア軍幹部は６日午前、ノーネクタイの平服姿で本殿に到着。神宮側の司会で正式参拝が始まり、出席者らは「おはらい」を受けた後、ブルガコフ大将が玉ぐしを奉納し、「二礼二拍手一礼」の作法で参拝した。

　その後、神職が神宮の祭りなどについて説明した。当初、北海道神宮の本殿や境内にある末社の開拓神社が、「なぜ北を向いているか」の説明を行うことも神宮側は希望していたが、実際には行われなかった。

　明治天皇が「御祭神」の１つである北海道神宮の本殿や開拓神社は、千島列島の北東端にあるシュムシュ島（占守島）の方角を向き、「北の護（まも）り」を担っているとされる。

　防衛省は平成１１年に作成された日露防衛交流の覚書に沿って、ロシアとの防衛交流を進めており、陸自とロシア地上軍は、平成１５年以来、陸自の北部方面隊とロシア東部のハバロフスクに司令部を置くロシア極東軍管区との間で、部隊指揮官が相互訪問し、部隊レベルでの交流を行っている。

　今回のブルガコフ大将の訪問で相互訪問は５回目。