Japanese investors prepare for dollar rebound

Japanese investors prepare for dollar rebound

By Lindsay Whipp in Tokyo

Published: November 4 2008 18:14 | Last updated: November 4 2008 20:32

The yen’s recent surge against the dollar and other currencies has prompted more Japanese investors to open foreign currency accounts as they anticipate an eventual dollar rebound that will enable them to profit from the gains.

Mizuho Financial Group said that the number of customers opening foreign deposit accounts, mainly in US dollars, had increased markedly since the beginning of October and was particularly evident as the yen surged towards Y90 to the dollar.

On those late October days, the increase in the balance of foreign currency deposits rose by Y8bn ($81m) per day, compared with between Y2bn and Y4bn earlier in the month, Mizuho said. However, Mizuho said the pace of the increase had not been as fast as in March, when the yen rose to levels of Y95, possibly because sentiment is more cautious these days.

Nevertheless, other Japanese banks are also experiencing an increase in the balance of their foreign deposit accounts. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group said its balance had risen by about $1.6bn this month compared with October last year and that the pace of deposit increases had accelerated since August.

Gaitame.com, Japan’s largest online foreign exchange brokerage by market share, said that the surge in the yen against previously popular high-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and South African Rand as well as the US dollar had hurt some margin traders and might be putting some off taking such risks for now.

Gaitame.com estimated that in October its customers’ balance had fallen by about 20 per cent, though that does not mean the losses are 20 per cent, as the figure includes remittances as well as profits and losses. The yen surged to a 13-year high of Y90.93 on October 24 against the dollar.

There are other reasons apart from uncertainty in the volatile currency movements to suggest that margin traders will not be heavy sellers of yen for now, even though there may be some demand to sell on rallies.

Junya Tanase, currency strategist at JPMorgan, said: “The Nikkei index has been declining so it should have a negative impact on the wealth effect of Japanese retail investors, depressing their risk appetite, and the economic outlook in Japan has been deteriorating significantly.,

“Given this situation, it’s very difficult to expect [the] Japanese to accelerate their foreign investment in the very near term.”

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Carlyle warns investors of weak returns

By Henny Sender in New York

Published: November 4 2008 23:31 | Last updated: November 4 2008 23:31

Carlyle Group, the private equity firm, this week warned a group of its investors that they were unlikely to see returns on their money soon.

“You should expect very few distributions from us,” said Bill Conway, Carlyle’s co-founder and chief investment officer, during Monday’s conference call with more than 400 investors.

In a message that underlined the swift change in fortunes of private equity groups since the credit crunch, Mr Conway also said: “You should also expect very few new deals.” He added that asset prices did not reflect grim economic realities globally.

The warnings come as investors grow increasingly concerned about the health of companies that private equity groups invest in. Carlyle noted that it was valuing its investment in ailing semiconductor company Freescale at 50 cents on the dollar and HD Supply at 65 cents on the dollar.

It added that companies it had invested in such as Hertz, the car rental company, and Dunkin Brands, owner of fast food chain Dunkin Donuts, were both flagging economic softness ahead.

When a private equity firm raises money, it receives commitments that when it finds something to buy, it can call upon investors to write a cheque for that purchase. Given reduced distributions of profits from private equity firms and broader losses in financial markets, many investors are finding it more difficult to stump up the funds.

Carlyle reached out to investors who may have trouble honouring their commitments. Investors “may be challenged in meeting capital calls”, said David Rubenstein, co-founder. “Please don’t default. We will try to work with you.”

While this has not been a problem in the past, the possibility that investors might not meet their commitments is growing as stock market and hedge fund losses mount while returns from previous deals also dry up.

Mr Conway said that debt for new deals or existing portfolio companies was “non-existent” and said that, when the market did return, debt would cost at least 2 or 3 percentage points more than in the recent past. Cheap debt was “the rocket ship that fuelled” the buy-out craze that ended abruptly in the summer of 2007, Mr Conway famously noted at the time.

The most attractive opportunity today lies in buying back the safest layer of the debt of Carlyle-owned companies, the firm said. Firms have bought back debt in their deals even as the price has dropped and subjected buyers to margin calls.

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S Korea's reserves fall 11% as won weakens

By Song Jung-a in Seoul

Published: November 5 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 5 2008 02:00

South Korea's foreign exchange reserves declined by $27.4bn, or 11 per cent, last month, an amount greater than the entire reserves of Asia's fourth-largest economy at the time of the 1997 financial crisis.

The decline came as the government aggressively intervened in the currency market to prop up the weaker local currency and provided dollars to local banks suffering from a liquidity crunch.

The reserves fell from $239.7bn in September to $212.3bn (€163bn, £132bn) in October. The data underline both the seriousness of the country's dollar funding situation as the global credit crunch increased funding costs for local banks and also the country's stronger position relative to the last crisis. The country had $22.3bn in reserves on the eve of the 1997 crisis.

"There won't be a problem in maintaining our external credibility as the current size of these reserves is sufficient to meet external payment requirements in case of an emergency," the Bank of Korea, the central bank, said in a report.

South Korea is the world's sixth-largest holder of foreign exchange but the government's increasingly costly effort to shore up the won is bringing back memories of its futile battle to defend its currency during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

The won fell 2 per cent to 1,288 against the dollar yesterday. The government expects the pace of decline to slow in coming months as the country's current account is projected to return to a surplus in this quarter and liquidity is likely to increase, following the country's $30bn currency swap with the US and other emergency measures.

Seoul said yesterday it would target export growth next year of 15 per cent, to $500bn, over this year's forecasted level and added it expected to post a current account surplus for the year. The finance ministry said this week the country could achieve 4 per cent economic growth next year through stimulus measures.

"Last month the dollar funding situation was the worst. So the government did whatever it could to provide dollars," said Chun Chong-woo, economist at Standard Chartered. "But the dollar funding environment has improved since the currency swap agreement with the Fed, so the BoK will not intervene as aggressively as before."

The government has intervened heavily in the financial sector, providing almost $20bn to local lenders last month and injecting an additional $30bn in the currency-swap market as the Korean won has lost almost 30 per cent against the dollar this year.

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Saudi Aramco reviews projects

By Andrew England in Abu Dhabi

Published: November 4 2008 22:04 | Last updated: November 4 2008 22:04

Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, is reviewing some of its long-term projects following the sharp decline in oil prices and a dramatic slowdown in demand growth for crude, a senior official said on Tuesday.

The official did not elaborate on details of the review process, saying no firm decisions had been made. It was also unclear whether the review could result in a decision to slow down the development of some of the kingdom’s projects or simply a renegotiation of contracts with service companies.

“We are going back to our partners and discussing with them the new economic circumstances,” said Khaled al-Buraik, an executive director at Saudi Aramco. “We are not talking about delays, we are talking about reviewing.” He said a decision on the projects would be made based on the re-evaluation process.

Mr Buraik said he expects other countries to conduct their own reviews in the wake of changing dynamics.

“People would like to go to and re-evaluate, and maybe some projects were evaluated at $80 or $100 a barrel – now we are talking about $65 a barrel,” he said. “I think the whole oil industry, the new expansions, oil and gas, it will be re-evaluated - it will be reassessed based on the current economic circumstances.”

Mr Buraik said Aramco’s short-term projects were on track and the kingdom would reach its target of increasing production capacity to 12.5m barrels a day by the end of next year.

But the development of the Manifa field, which was intended to add 900,000 barrels per day of capacity by 2011, was under review, he said.

A project to produce gas from the Karan field – the kingdom’s first offshore free-gas field to be developed – is also being re-evaluated, he said. That field was intended to provide production of 1.5bn cubic feet per day of gas by 2012 and help meet Saudi Arabia’s soaring energy demands.

Aramco, the biggest oil company by production, was estimated to be spending $129bn (€100bn, £80bn) on its energy expansion plan, and its decision to review projects is another illustration of how the oil-rich Gulf is being affected by the global slowdown. “We are meeting our 12m barrels [next year], and we are meeting our spare production capacity of 1.5m to 2m barrels per day; beyond that everything is depending on the market and the decline rates,” said another senior Aramco official. “All the portfolio that will be coming later on is being looked at. Any company would be doing that at this stage.”

Only five months ago, Saudi Arabia said it would add an additional 2.5m barrels of capacity, on top of the 12.5m, if needed, at a hastily convened conference of producers and consumers in Jeddah. The meeting was organised by King Abdullah, the Saudi ruler, as oil producers came under intense western pressure to raise output in an attempt to stem the rise of oil prices.

But the price of crude has dropped since hitting $147 a barrel in July and demand forecasts have slumped amid concerns of a global recession. Last month, Opec agreed to cut its output quota by 1.5m barrels a day at an emergency meeting in Vienna.

Producers throughout the Gulf launched projects to increase their production capacities and suffered from soaring costs for rigging, drilling and other resources, as well as shortages of human personnel. The tight market conditions have caused many projects to be delayed or postponed.

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Iranian minister fired for fake degree

By FT Correspondent

Published: November 4 2008 18:23 | Last updated: November 4 2008 18:23

Iran’s parliament on Tuesday voted to dismiss Ali Kordan, the interior minister, for faking a degree from Oxford University, in another blow to the government of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad.

Mr Kordan was the 10th minister to have been replaced in the 21-member cabinet, bringing closer the prospect of a vote of confidence in the government.

Ali Larijani, speaker of Iran’s parliament, said: “The cabinet is on the edge. If one more minister is sacked, the whole cabinet should be put to a vote of confidence.”

The Iranian constitution stipulates that the president must hold a vote of confidence if half of the cabinet is changed. Legal experts interpret the constitution to mean that another minister has to go before a confidence vote is called.

Parliament voted by 188 votes out of 247 to dismiss Mr Kordan for “dishonesty” over his degree, only three months after it had approved his appointment.

Pressure mounted on Mr Kordan to resign after he admitted in a letter to the president on September 30 that his honorary degree from Oxford University had been forged without his knowing. The British university had denied granting him the qualification.

Mr Ahmadi-Nejad at the weekend described moves to impeach Mr Kordan as illegal because MPs were not going to vote on the performance of the minister.

The president added that he would not attend the parliamentary session on the day of the vote. Mr Larijani, a critic of the president, insisted, however, that there was no legal issue with the impeachment.

He said the dismissal was a test for the whole system and the country and showed that parliament would “use a firm hand to deal with all wrong acts, regardless of who the perpetrator is and what his positive acts of the past”.

Mr Kordan had served as Mr Larijani’s deputy when the latter was head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, the country’s national radio and television.

Mr Kordan said that more than 10,000 negative news items had been published or broadcast against him. He blamed the move against him on those who sought to sow the seeds of disunity among the “revolutionary forces”.

But lawmakers rallied against him, judging that he was unfit to run the interior ministry, which has the crucial role of overseeing Iran’s elections.

One MP, Bijan Nobaveh, was quoted by news agencies as accusing Mr Kordan of reducing faith and confidence in the Islamic Republic, and the impeachment was an attempt to restore the system’s reputation.

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Financial caution pays off for Israel

By Tobias Buck in Jerusalem

Published: November 4 2008 22:55 | Last updated: November 4 2008 22:55

As the credit crisis spreads havoc and economic gloom around the globe, bankers and policymakers in Israel are growing in confidence that they will weather the storm.

The Bank of Israel expects the economy to grow by 4.5 per cent this year and about 2.7 per cent in 2009. This is less than in each of the past five years, when Israel clocked up growth rates of more than 5 per cent. But that expansion contrasts with the faltering economies of western Europe and the US, and the uncertainties that are engulfing developing economies in regions such as eastern Europe.

“We entered this period in relatively good shape. In particular, we started with a budget that was essentially in balance,” Stanley Fischer, the governor of the Bank of Israel, said this week. “Our aim is to weather this storm with minimum damage to the economy,” he added, pointing out that there was no sign the country was slipping into a recession.

The governor argued that Israel was facing the current crisis with a banking system “much stronger than banking systems in other countries”. As a result, Israeli banks were still willing and able to lend money. “The element that has not been affected here is that the credit system continues to operate,” he added.

Mr Fischer, who was deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund between 1994 and 2001, said Israel’s banks had largely shunned mortgage-backed securities and other risky assets, and were now “barely exposed to the subprime crisis”.

He added: “Undoubtedly in some banks they owe it to successful management. In other cases, the banks were perhaps not sufficiently sophisticated to get into this. Sometimes there are advantages in not being sophisticated.”

Israel fared far worse in the previous global downturn. With a large technology sector, it suffered two years of recession when the dotcom bubble burst in 2000-01. “This time, the perfect storm happened elsewhere and we are only feeling the side-effects,” said Gil Bufman, the chief economist of Israel’s Bank Leumi.

He, too, pointed to the relative conservatism of Israel’s financial sector to explain the country’s resilience. “There was a great deal of financial caution in previous years. Lending practices in Israel have been far more conservative than elsewhere. We didn’t have this whole asset-price inflation fuelled by excessive credit.”

The Tel Aviv stock market has fallen by 38 per cent since the start of the year, but in dollar terms, the drop has been mild compared with Israel’s peers in eastern Europe. Far from being buffeted by the current mayhem, the Israeli shekel “remains one of the strongest currencies in the world”, said Mr Bufman.

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Miracle cure for Obama’s Kenyan roots

By Parselelo Kantai in Kogelo

Published: November 4 2008 22:38 | Last updated: November 4 2008 22:38

At the Kogelo dispensary compound, about half a kilometre from Barack Obama’s grandmother’s home in western Kenya, a second tent was being erected just as the old lady, known as Mama Sarah, was driven off.

It was at the end of an afternoon prayer meeting, at which she and other residents hoped to provide some last-minute subliminal influence over US voters. A big-screen television would be put up later, on which hundreds of villagers from the surrounding area were expected to flock in to watch the results of the US presidential race.

Big-screen TV is not the only new development in Kogelo. In recent weeks, this remote location of 17,627 souls has witnessed nothing short of a Kenyan miracle.

Once one of thousands of rural backwaters, Kogelo is now the target of unprecedented government-sponsored development projects that appear prompted by the worldwide attention it is receiving, although Kenyan officials deny it.

For the people of Nyanza, the very real possibility that Mr Obama could soon be the most powerful man in the world is proving a gift with unintended local consequences.

The province is one of the most underdeveloped parts of Kenya. It has the highest protein-deficiency rates in the country – despite the fact that it is located on the shores of fish-rich Lake Victoria – and also has the highest HIV infection rates.

That it lags behind the rest of the country is a consequence of its politics. For 40 years, the province produced leaders who were considered a threat to Kenya’s ruling establishment. Development was denied, locals believe, as an act of punishment. Now, things are changing.

A nine-kilometre graded road is just being completed. The project has been executed in slightly less than a month. The road’s principal intention it seems, is to make it easier for the world to reach Kogelo in a future when Mr Obama will be US president and will be making occasional visits back to the village where his Kenyan father was born.

The road will, of course, have other effects, allowing locals to reach the district capital faster, and allowing trade, investment and ideas to flow.

Insecurity is the number one grievance Kenyans have with the state. Pleas by the public for added police presence usually fall on deaf ears. For the people of Kogelo, however, the response has been breathtaking.

An incident last month, in which Mama Sarah’s home was attacked by burglars, prompted the government to put up a police post with housing for a contingent of policemen.

“We are running two camps at Kogelo,” says Johnston Okasida Ipara, senior superintendent of police. “One is at Mama Sarah’s home and the other at the dispensary. But it’s not that we were provoked into putting them up, we were already on our way.”

At the back of the dispensary compound is a tent for HIV testing. Roseline Ayara, a counsellor, says she has received 20 times the average number of people coming in for testing in recent days.

“Usually, we receive about five,” she says. By late afternoon, she had tested 100 people – a breakthrough in a region traditionally averse to HIV testing – thanks to the crowds drawn to the area by the buzz surrounding the Obama family.

“We plan to be here through the night,” she says. “We call it moonlight testing. We will be testing people throughout the night as the presidential results come in.”

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West Africa: Unbroken line

By Matthew Green

Published: November 4 2008 19:29 | Last updated: November 4 2008 19:29

Senegalese policeman stands in front of a truck loaded with bricks of cocaine about to be destroyed in the town of Rufisque, just outside the capital Dakar, August 2, 2007. Senegal burned nearly 2.5 tonnes of cocaine seized in June and worth more than $300-million, the largest haul ever in the West African country, a police official said on Thursday.

One sultry afternoon in September, the government of Guinea invited diplomats to witness the ceremonial burning of a seizure of cocaine. British, French and American envoys scuttled to the gendarmerie in Conakry, capital of the medium-sized west African republic. Later, suits would have to be dry cleaned. The drugs had vanished. In their place: sacks of rotting fish.

“There was a big crowd of several hundred locals who followed the smell and then saw all these people arriving,” says one of the diplomats. “They were saying to me, ‘don’t be taken in: it has been stolen’.”

Switching bricks of cocaine for a shipment of ageing seafood right under the noses of assembled foreign dignitaries might seem a risky gambit even for the most reckless of smugglers. In fact, it was a sign of confidence. South American cocaine traffickers have transformed west Africa into their version of paradise. Armed with briefcases full of cash, they are turning police officers, soldiers and politicians into business partners. The region is already the fastest-growing route for shipping cocaine to Europe. Soon, it could be the biggest.

Below: ‘I am a grandmother . . . I do nobody’s dirty work’

For the drug runners, the profits from this multi-billion dollar industry are huge. For millions of west Africans, the impact could be devastating. In Mexico, several thousand have been killed in drug-related murders this year alone. In countries such as Liberia and Sierra Leone, neighbours of Guinea that are only starting to emerge from even worse conflicts, the fear is that cocaine could fuel future civil wars.

Like globalisation’s evil twin, the trade has exploded just as Guinea as well as others in the region such as Ghana, Senegal, Mauritania and Mali have been attracting growing foreign investment in sectors from oil and mining to telecommunications and banking.

Drug cartels do not just undermine the state; in some cases they capture it. As the rule of law corrodes, legitimate investors flee. Some researchers even speak of a cocaine “resource curse”, where the illicit cash fuels the kind of poverty, coups and instability more commonly associated with sudden oil wealth. The danger is that a new generation of “narco-states” will incubate a scourge of transnational crime right on Europe’s doorstep.

“We are talking about an amount of money created by organised crime from cocaine trafficking which is greater than national incomes,” says Antonio Maria Costa, executive director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime in Vienna. “There is the threat that this massive amount of money can destabilise countries.”

Traffic junction

In the past decade, western law enforcement agents have focused on the traditional route for shipping cocaine produced in the foothills of the Andes to Europe: via the Caribbean. But then they noticed something strange happening along west Africa’s coconut-fringed coast.

In 2005, the quantities of cocaine being discovered on ships or in small aircraft began to leap off the graph. Seizures on the entire continent had until then generally totalled less than a tonne per year. UNODC data show 46 tonnes of cocaine have since been seized in west Africa alone. Loosely tracking the 10th parallel, this route earned the nickname “Highway Ten”.

“In the past four years or so, west Africa has become this huge, pivotal zone for the distribution of coke,” says Misha Glenny, author of McMafia, a book documenting global organised crime. “We’re talking about destabilisation in that area which will lead, if it is not checked, to thousands of deaths.”

The rise of Highway Ten is a simple matter of economics. Demand for cocaine is growing in many parts of Europe (and in Gulf states), while the US market is more mature. The euro’s strength against the dollar adds to the allure. More aggressive interdiction by the US and Europe has raised the risks in the Caribbean. In many parts of west Africa, threadbare policemen often spend their careers inventing traffic violations to extort money from motorists. The last place smugglers are likely to end up is in handcuffs.

Lacking enough cars, fuel or even electricity to run an effective police force, the tiny state of Guinea-Bissau was the first beachhead for the drug runners. They quickly fanned out north to Senegal and Mauritania and south-east to Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Even Ghana, considered a haven of good governance, is showing signs of succumbing.

From the shore, the routes north to Europe’s street corners multiply like the tributaries of a river delta. Heavily armed convoys of four-wheel-drive vehicles zoom across the Sahara loaded with drugs for export via the Mediterranean. Some loads go by camel. Customs officers at the airport in Accra, Ghana’s capital, have discovered cocaine hidden among tins of palm nut soup. Bedraggled illegal immigrants washing up in Spain’s Canary Islands sometimes carry a few grams of cocaine – an easier currency to conceal than cash. “Every time we stumble across a trend, the trend changes,” says one law enforcement officer on secondment from a European country to west Africa. “It’s a three-dimensional game of chess.”

Volumes are growing. UNODC estimates that some 40 tonnes of cocaine are shipped via west Africa a year, representing 27 per cent of the cocaine consumed by Europeans, with a wholesale value of $1.8bn (€1.4bn, £1.1bn). Some agencies give much higher figures. As the white powder moves down the supply chain, meanwhile, its value rockets. For every border crossed, the risk premium rises. In Spain, for example, a kilogram might sell for an average wholesale price of about $40,000, while in Sweden it might fetch $70,000. The retail “street” value is higher still.

Such sums buy powerful friends. Last year, police arrested a Colombian and a Mexican with guns, paralysing spray and a large quantity of cash in Guinea-Bissau. According to Antonio Mazzitelli, UNODC representative for west and central Africa, one of the men had a conviction in the US for laundering money for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the rebel group. Another had a criminal record in Mexico for trafficking cocaine. But the most sinister aspect was a board the men had prepared bearing the names of senior figures in Guinea-Bissau’s government and security forces – each with notes on how they could be influenced.

Ghana has provided perhaps the most clear-cut case of political involvement. A US court recently sentenced Eric Amoateng, an MP, to 10 years in jail for heroin trafficking. He was a prominent member of the ruling New Patriotic party, which many Ghanaians expect to win a general election next month. “The perception is that government itself is emasculated,” says one former senior security officer in Ghana. “Key suspects vanish. If you don’t check this, they will corrupt the whole system.”

The money involved can swamp national economies. The street value of a single seizure of 600kg of cocaine found in the boot of a car in Guinea-Bissau last year equalled at least 10 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product. Legitimate importers suffer when drug money is laundered through imports of goods that are then sold at a discount. In addition, evidence of a “spill­over” of local cocaine use is growing, raising the risk of addiction-fuelled crime. The Hummers bouncing over the cratered streets of west African cities may be a testament to faster economic growth – but to many locals they prove that crime pays.

Violence follows the loot. Shootouts in the favelas of Brazil show how easily drug barons can recruit foot soldiers among the poor. In west Africa, there is growing evidence of turf wars among security forces. Soldiers in Conakry ransacked the offices of the narcotics control board during a mutiny over pay this year. In Guinea-Bissau, police heard uniformed personnel were unloading boxes from an aircraft in the military section of the airport in July. Sniffer dogs revealed that cocaine had been on board.

The world mustered large UN peacekeeping forces to restabilise Sierra Leone and Liberia after wars funded by diamonds. The corrupting pull of cocaine creates new tensions. In the anything-for-a-price underworld, drug money can drive the trade in illicit goods from fake DVDs to AK-47 rifles.

In January, a ship flying a Liberian flag was found to have 2.5 tonnes of cocaine on board. In Sierra Leone in July, police seized a light aircraft containing 700kg of cocaine, then launched an overnight manhunt through the villages around Lungi airport. South Americans were among those caught in the dragnet. The aircraft bore Red Cross insignia. One investigator said the drugs were packed to look like Bibles.

The international response remains piecemeal. The UN Security Council has started to discuss the issue and foreign security agencies, including the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, are expanding their presence. The UK has deployed customs officers to help monitor Ghana’s airport. Last year, seven European Union countries set up a maritime co-ordination centre in Portugal so they can use their navies to intercept suspect ships.

Successful busts depend on intelligence. When police and their civilian masters are on drug gang payrolls, tip-offs may not be forthcoming. Vigilance in one area may simply push the cartels’ nomadic middle management further down the coast. Some west African officers are risking their lives to uphold the law but time is short.

Once, Colombians controlled the cocaine routes through Mexico to the US. One day, Mexicans seized control. West African gangs may try the same. Flush with drug money, criminal entrepreneurs will be tempted to expand their operations in Europe: prostitution, credit card fraud and human trafficking. The nastier side-effects of snorting cocaine are well-known. The rise of a cross-border empire run by ruthless tropical gangsters is in its own way at least as pernicious.

‘I AM A GRANDMOTHER . . . I DO NOBODY’S DIRTY WORK’

Farida Waziri, the woman in charge of pursuing corruption cases against some of Nigeria’s most powerful politicians, stabs an angry finger at the newspaper that tops a pile of local dailies on her desk, write Matthew Green and Michael Peel. She is annoyed at a stream of what she describes as propaganda at­tacks, accusing her of being a suspects’ patsy brought in to protect criminal interests jeopardised by Nuhu Ribadu (below), her barnstorming predecessor.

Mrs Waziri, who joined the police in 1965, says the criticisms are an insult spread by Mr Ribadu’s supporters and his international backers in London and elsewhere. “I am a grandmother, for God’s sake, and can’t do anybody’s dirty work. You can’t use me. So my detractors went to town to tell so many lies,” she says.

The growing row over Mrs Waziri’s tenure as head of Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission highlights the troubled on-again, off-again attempts to combat domestic and transnational organised crime in a west African country notorious for it. Big economies such as the US and Britain have poured money into the commission in an effort to help it crack down on the international money laundering, fraud and internet scams that emanate from Africa’s most populous nation, some promising foreigners overnight fortunes with tall tales of forgotten bank accounts belonging to deceased dictators.

NIGERIA-CORRUPTION-RIBADU...The chairman of Nigeria's Economic and Financial Crime Commission, Nuhu Ribadu, speaks on the phone 12 September 2006 from his office in Abuja. Ribadu defended a probe into Vice President Atiku Abubakar, alleging that the embattled leader had authorized the use of government funds for kickbacks. Abubakar is under investigation for allegedly receiving a bribe from US congressman William Jefferson to help the US politician win a telecoms contract in Nigeria.The vice president is also accused of influencing the placement of government petroleum funds in commercial banks in which he is alleged to have interests.Abubakar plans to run for the 21 April 2007 presidential elections to succeed President Olusegun Obasanjo, who will be stepping down after two terms in office. AFP PHOTO / Kola OSIYEMI

Mrs Waziri took charge of Nigeria’s main anti-corruption unit in May, replacing Mr Ribadu, a soft-spoken detective renowned for charging hitherto untouchable politicians with looting millions of dollars to bankroll lifestyles replete with flashy cars, private jets and champagne. Mr Ribadu’s removal in December – weeks after he charged powerful former state governors with graft – provoked outcry at home and abroad, fuelling a perception that Umaru Yar’Adua, the president, lacks the political will to pursue top suspects.

Agents who served under Mr Ribadu – himself a controversial figure accused of being a political tool of Olusegun Obasanjo, the former president – say Mrs Waziri has removed at least 20 of the most experienced EFCC investigators since she took over. But Mrs Waziri, who came out of retirement to take charge of the EFCC, says she removed only 10 officers who falsely portrayed her as a stooge of high-level suspects – and has brought charges against three more former governors as well as numerous other alleged crooks. “Nobody is indispensable,” Mrs Waziri says at EFCC headquarters in Abuja, the capital. “If 20,000 officers are disloyal, and they are trained by both the British and the Americans, I will still flush them out and get somebody that I can work with.”

Some members of London’s Metropolitan Police, who worked closely with Mr Ribadu, have joined her detractors, she adds: “There are a few of them that want to be difficult because Nuhu has been removed.”

One British official familiar with the joint London-Abuja investigations admits communications have become “difficult” since the change of leadership, although the UK still hopes to re-establish the close working relationship of the Ribadu era.

Nigerian cases form a big part of the work of a new 10-officer Scotland Yard police unit investigating suspected money laundering by foreign officials in Britain. Those probes are among the many west African cases with an international dimension that could be in trouble if Mrs Waziri’s commission and its nominal allies internationally cannot fast patch up their differences.

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J.P. Morgan to Close Prop Trading Desk

By Riley McDermid, Senior Reporter

J.P. Morgan Chase is shutting down its global proprietary trading desk and redistributing employees from the unit to other functions, the bank confirmed late Tuesday.

The trading desk changes were announced in an internal memo from the co-chief executives of J.P. Morgan's investment bank, William Winters and Steven Black, which was received by 30,000-plus employees last week.

J.P. Morgan spokeswoman Kristin Lemkau confirmed the desk's shuttering but declined to comment further.

Several news reports early Tuesday had broken the news and suggested the bank is taking steps to protect itself from a looming recession by streamlining the operation.

But closely watched banking analyst Dick Bove took issue with the excuse that J.P. Morgan was closing its global proprietary trading business in an effort to avoid risk, saying that the bank had instead said it was closing the desk due to significant poaching of traders by hedge fund Citadel.

"The reason is that apparently Citadel has pirated so many employees out of this division that it made sense to close it and pass along its functions to other trading operations within the company," wrote Bove in a note to investors.

Lemkau denied the desk's closure had anything to do with moves by Citadel.

It would not be the first time the bank had tangled with Citadel. J.P. Morgan heavy hitter Patrik Edsparr left the firm about eight months ago to run Europe and fixed income for Citadel, and the bank temporarily suspended counterparty trading with Citadel Investment Group in September after repeatedly warning the hedge fund to stop hiring away the bank's top talent.

Whatever the reason, as part of the restructuring the 75-member trading desk will likely see some job losses, while remaining traders would be moved to other positions in commodities, fixed income, equities, foreign exchange and emerging markets.

The largest American bank by market value, J.P. Morgan continues to face significant headwinds in a difficult operating climate that has slammed banks with multibillion dollar write-downs and distressed assets and a frozen credit market. The bank apparently expects that trend to continue: the firm's chief executive Jamie Dimon said in Hong Kong Monday that it will see "highly challenging conditions'' in 2009.

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Posted on Nov. 4, 2008

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A cacophonous vigil in land of the senator's father

By Daniel Howden in Kogelo, Kenya
Tuesday, 4 November 2008

There were only two words to the song and nobody seemed to care: "Obama" and "miracle". For the people crowded into the Senator Obama schoolyard last night in the tiny village of Kogelo, two words said everything. Not even a spectacular rainstorm could dampen the enthusiasm. Amid the mud, there were Obama hats, Obama beers, Obama taxis and most importantly, actual Obamas, this being the ancestral home of the Illinois senator's late father.

More than 1,000 people flitted between the tarpaulin, dancing in the rain, and watching the first big screen that this village with no electricity had ever seen.

"We have our sources in Washington," boasted Nicholas Rajula, a distant cousin of Barack Obama, and one of the organisers of Kogelo's all-night presidential vigil. "We've been told to watch out for Pennsylvania but we'll be here all night."

The Kisumu Jesus Choir wasn't waiting for the blue-collar vote a world away. They struck up a relentless beat that sounded like a celebration hours before US polling stations closed.

The distance between the White House and the Obama family's homestead in Kogelo is impossible to bridge. But there are already some signs of change: the rutted dirt road from the city has been graded this week; the family has closed ranks against a surge in media interest; and yesterday morning, the sleepy hamlet that is Kogelo had its first press conference.

With Obama's surviving grandmother, Sarah Onyango, keeping her peace until after the election, his half-brother Abongo Malik Obama sought to dampen runaway local expectations of what an Obama victory would mean for the villagers.

"My brother may not directly influence the development in the village. But there are things that he stands for, and it is the people who believe in those things who will make moves to improve living standards," he said.

One of the local bulls at least was pulling for Mr McCain after the family said they would mark an Obama victory by slaughtering the animal and holding a feast. Few people here fancied its chances of surviving. The day before yesterday a dark ring had formed briefly around the sun and Luo tribal elders declared this to be the best possible omen – something big was about to happen.

A real shift in relations between the United States and Kenya is hardly feasible. The two are already close allies, with Washington handing the African government $300m (£188m) a year in aid, and Nairobi hosting America's largest embassy in Africa.

"The real impact will be psychological," said the Kenyan political commentator Murithi Mutiga. "It could impact on the mindset here where political support splits along tribal lines. Among younger Kenyans, Obama has generated enthusiasm that cuts across tribal allegiances. People see a national leader who comes from a Kenyan minority; it's a turning point."

Voting started early in Kisumu – seven hours earlier than the country in which the real election was being held. Still, it didn't stop Kenyans from enjoying the joke. Mock ballot boxes for Obama and McCain drew two lines – one was long and full of laughter, the other was short, very short.

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Bush’s low campaign profile unprecedented

By Andrew Ward in Phoenix and Demetri Sevastopuloin Washington

Published: November 4 2008 19:13 | Last updated: November 4 2008 19:13

From the Clintons on the left to Arnold Schwarzenegger on the right, over the past week the great and the good of American politics have been drawn to the campaign trail like moths to a flame, as the longest and most intense presidential race in US history approached its finale.

But there was one notable figure missing from the stage: the man that John McCain and Barack Obama were vying to replace.

Political historians say there is no modern precedent for an incumbent president to have adopted as low a profile during an election campaign as has George W. Bush over the past few months.

He was last seen in public alongside Mr McCain, the Republican party’s nominee, in a fleeting encounter after a fundraising event in May and has not held a single rally for a party candidate during this election cycle. His absence reflected Republican efforts to distance the party from the outgoing president, as his approval ratings plunged to record lows and the financial crisis added a fresh dent to his already battered reputation.

“I’m not George Bush,” Mr McCain said repeatedly at campaign events. “If Barack Obama wanted to run against George Bush he should have run four years ago.”

Yet, hard as Mr McCain tried, he could never escape the president’s long and dark shadow.

If Mr Obama wins the US election, it will have been as much a repudiation of the Bush legacy as a rejection of Mr McCain – and arguably more so.

Tellingly, Mr Obama referred to Mr Bush more often than he mentioned his opponent in the “closing argument” stump speech he delivered in the run-up to polling day.

“Every day it was Bush, Bush, Bush, Bush,” said one senior McCain aide.

Recent polls have shown Mr Bush’s approval rating hovering below 25 per cent, similar to the record lows registered by Richard Nixon and Harry Truman. He has not commanded approval from a majority of the population since early 2005 – the most sustained period of unpopularity for a president since polling on the issue began in the 1930s.

His lowly rating represents a harsh public verdict on an eight-year presidency marred by a long list of failures and controversies. Overseas, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost more than 5,500 lives, Osama bin Laden is still on the loose seven years after the September 2001 terrorist attacks, and US popularity worldwide has nosedived.

At home, the botched response to hurricane Katrina set the tone for a failed second term that saw flagship social security and immigration reforms collapse on Capitol Hill and the economy falter. A survey of more than 100 historians conducted by the History News Network found that more than 60 per cent rated Mr Bush as the worst president in US history.

It has long been an article of faith in the White House that history will judge the Bush administration more kindly than contemporary opinion. Officials draw a parallel with President Truman, who is now viewed as one of the country’s greatest presidents despite deep unpopularity while in office.

This argument gained ground over the summer, as declining levels of violence in Iraq lent plausibility to Mr Bush’s long-held belief that the war would one day be seen as a strategic success. His defenders pointed to the absence of another domestic terrorist attack since 2001 as further vindication of the “war on terror”, and cited the administration’s increased diplomatic engagement on issues such as North Korea, the Middle East peace process, climate change and even Iran as a sign that Mr Bush had learned from his first-term mistakes.

But any hope of a sustained rebound in popularity was dashed by the escalation of the simmering credit crunch into a full-blown financial crisis in September.

Mr Bush’s allies argue it is unfair to blame him for a crisis that has multiple culprits and roots pre-dating his administration. They say his administration’s push for the $700bn financial bail-out will be looked back on as a moment of bold leadership.

But Joan Hoff, a presidential historian at Montana State university, said the impact of the crisis had combined with failures in Iraq to increase the sense of waning US power at the end of the Bush era.

“It may be looked back on as a defining moment in history,” she said, adding that the next man in the White House may find the job is tough going. “The next president is destined for a failed presidency,” she predicted. “It doesn’t matter whether Obama or McCain wins. Neither of them is going to be able to clean up the mess left by Bush.”

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A cultural divide? While the West axes jobs, Asia cuts pay

Reuters Kevin Lim

From bankers to factory staff, workers in the West face the bleak prospect of losing their jobs as a global recession starts to bite. For colleagues in the East, the pain is more likely to come through a pay cut.
Human resource experts say cultural differences explain why Asian firms try harder to preserve jobs in difficult times, which will stem unemployment and may help keep Asian economies afloat at a time of slowing exports.

The more paternalistic East Asian attitude may also make it easier for firms to recover quickly from the economic downturn since they will not need to rehire or train new staff, leaving some experts predicting a Western shift to Eastern flexibility.

"In the Confucian mindset, the right thing to do is to share the burden. There's that sense of collective responsibility whereas in the West, it's more about individual survival," said Michael Benoliel, associate professor of organisational behaviour at Singapore Management University

(SMU).

In Hong Kong, senior staff at CLSA, the Asian brokerage arm of Credit Agricole, have agreed to a voluntary pay cut of up to 25 per cent to stave off the threat of redundancy. CLSA made similar cuts in 2003 when business slowed due to SARS.

A Western CLSA employee, who declined to be identified, told Reuters he accepted the cut because he would have looked like "scum" in the eyes of his colleagues if he did not agree.

Singapore's Chartered Semiconductor also implemented temporary salary reductions of 5-20 percent after posting a loss, with senior management taking the biggest hit. And in Japan, chipmaker Elpida cut its chief executive's pay by 50 percent.

Steven Pang, Asia regional director for Aquent, a headhunting firm, said in many East Asian companies there was an obligation "to take care of members of the family and go through the pain together" even if that meant incurring losses.

In contrast, Western counterparts often felt compelled to make dramatic statements to show investors they were serious about cost-cutting, Pang said.

U.S. firms from General Motors to Goldman Sachs plan to lay off workers by the thousands, but at the Asian units of Western multinationals, job cuts will probably be less severe.

Firms have to adapt labour practices according to the countries they operate in, which means they tend to be more restrained when sacking staff lest it hurt their ability to sell products and attract people, Benoliel said.

JOB FLEXIBILITY

Mark Ellwood, who heads the Singapore, Malaysian and Thai operations of Robert Walters, an executive search firm, said labour laws in most Western nations favoured employees and made it difficult for firms to reduce salaries without attracting lawsuits from disgruntled employees.

"In many cases, it's easier to make the retrenchments."

Employment law in East Asia tended to favour employers, allowing them to be more creative, and there was also government and public support for measures that help save jobs.

Singapore, for instance, encourages firms and unions to develop "flexi-wage" packages that allow employers to adjust salaries according to economic conditions.

According to the city-state's Manpower Ministry, about 83 percent of people in the private sector were employed under some form of flexible wage system, and 38 percent had variable components built into their monthly wages as at end-2006.

The monthly variable component could run as high as 70 percent in the case of top executives, said Ho Geok Choo, president of the Singapore Human Resources Institute (SHRI).

The policy has kept the city-state's unemployment at a low 2.2 percent, versus 1.7 percent in last year's fourth quarter.

Japan's jobless rate was 4 percent in September, up from 3.8 percent in January, while Hong Kong's was flat at 3.4 percent. But U.S. unemployment is expected to have jumped to 6.3 percent last month from below 5 percent in January.

WEST MEETS EAST?

Experts say that while there are noticeable differences in labour practices in East and West, the gap will narrow as more firms become more multinational and competition forces firms to adopt the best practices of rivals from abroad.

Aquent's Pang noted many large Japanese firms no longer offer jobs-for-life, while Western multinationals now employ a large number of people in Asia.

"With the trend of major Japanese companies being run by non-Japanese CEOs, slowly but surely they are starting to adopt more of a Western management style and philosophy."

However, SHRI's Ho said the global crisis has raised questions about the Anglo-Saxon way of doing business, and she predicted a shift towards a more paternalistic work culture.

Western firms are trying harder to put on a more human face amid growing distrust among the youth in their home countries.

In the past, layoffs meant an empty box and an escort to the carpark, but firms now offer counselling and consultants to help staff find jobs elsewhere, said SMU's Benoliel.

"They'll still kill you, but they now do it gently."

--------------------------
日ロ外相会談、金融危機で連携を確認

　中曽根弘文外相は5日、来日中のロシアのラブロフ外相と外務省飯倉公館で会談した。世界的な金融危機を巡り両国が国際金融の健全化に向けて協力する方針を確認した。今月下旬にペルーで開かれるアジア太平洋経済協力会議（ＡＰＥＣ）で日ロ首脳会談を開催することも合意。北方領土問題では解決に向けて前進する決意で一致した。

　中曽根外相は会談後の共同記者会見で「一体化が進む世界経済で、両国が責任ある立場で建設的な役割を果たすことを確認した」と述べた。両外相はグルジア問題など国際情勢についても意見交換した。

　政府は今回の会談を首脳級の政治対話の準備と位置づけている。ＡＰＥＣでの首脳会談の開催、年内のプーチン首相来日で北方領土問題の解決に道筋をつけたい考えだ。(13:28)

-------------------------
10月の実効為替レート、名目で８年ぶり円高水準

　日銀が5日まとめた円の総合的な価値を示す実効為替レート（1973年3月＝100）は物価変動を反映した名目で10月に345.2となり、前月より 34.9ポイント急上昇し、2000年11月以来約8年ぶりの円高水準となった。米欧や新興国での金融危機を背景に、円に資金を逃避させる動きが広がった。円は対ドルで10月下旬に13年ぶりに1ドル＝90円台に上昇しただけでなく主要通貨に対して独歩高の展開だったことを裏付けた。

　実効為替レートはドルやユーロなど15の主要通貨に対する円の総合的な価値を示す。数字が大きいほど円高となる。10月は世界的な株安を背景に、ヘッジファンドなどが低金利の円を借りて外貨建ての資産に投資する「円キャリー取引」を解消。国内の機関投資家が外貨投資を引き揚げ、円に戻す動きも出た。

　一方、日本と各国の物価格差を考慮した実質ベースでは111.1と、前月より11.2ポイント上昇。05年8月以来3年2カ月ぶりの高い水準となった。(11:06)

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定額給付金に所得制限を導入　自己申請案など検討　政府・自民

　政府・自民党は4日、追加経済対策に盛り込んだ総額2兆円の定額給付金に所得制限を設ける方針を固めた。除外対象となる世帯の所得基準は1000万 ―2000万円以上とする案が浮上している。市町村の事務手続きを簡素にするため、自己申請に基づく方式を軸に検討する。麻生太郎首相は同日夜、記者団に「自主申告するとか、色々なことを考えないといけない」と述べた。

　定額給付金を巡って首相は当初、全世帯が対象としていたが、4日になって方針を転換。与謝野馨経済財政担当相が自民党の保利耕輔政調会長らと会談し、週内に具体策をまとめることを決めた。(07:00)

-----------------------------
法人税収が４割減　上期、２年連続の減額修正へ

　財務省が4日発表した9月末の税収実績によると、2008年度上期（4―9月）の一般会計税収は13兆3375億円と前年同期に比べて5.1％減った。所得税や消費税は前年並みだったが、法人税が約4割も減った。財務省は「税収は法人税を中心に落ち込むことが見込まれる」として、2年連続で税収見通しを減額修正する考えを示した。補正予算での赤字国債増発も避けられない情勢だ。

　上半期の法人税収は8867億円と、前年同期に比べて40.9％減少した。今年に入って原材料高や円高・ドル安が企業収益を圧迫。信用力の低い個人向け住宅融資（サブプライムローン）問題を背景に、米国や欧州などをはじめとした世界経済も悪化し、日本経済をけん引してきた輸出企業の収益も減速している。

-----------------------------
出光興産、ハノイに事務所開設　小売市場を調査

　出光興産は5日、ベトナムのハノイに事務所を開設すると発表した。現地における石油製品の小売事業参入をにらみ、市場調査を進める。事務所は12月初旬に開設する。同社は三井化学やベトナム国営のペトロベトナムなどと合弁会社を設立しており、2010年度以降に製油・石油化学工場を建設する計画を打ち出している。(12:33)

--------------------------
日航、営業益４割減　４－９月　燃料高騰など響く

　日本航空の2008年4―9月期の連結営業利益は300億円前後と、前年同期に比べ4割程度減ったもようだ。燃料費の高騰や観光需要の低迷が響いた。世界的な景気減速で春ごろまで堅調だった国際線のビジネス需要も夏以降は冷え込んでおり、下期の収益環境は厳しさを増している。

　4―9月期の国際線旅客収入は若干のプラスにとどまり、4―6月期（5％増）に比べ伸びが鈍化したもよう。値上げやビジネス客比率の向上で単価が1割程度上昇したが、旅客数が1割近く減少。中国線やグアム線などで観光需要が低迷、欧米線のビジネス需要も8月以降は停滞した。国内線も競争激化などを背景に収入が伸び悩んだ。(10:39)

-------------------------------
アジア―欧米の輸送力10％削減　日本郵船　家電など荷動き鈍化

　日本郵船は来年3月まで、アジアと北米、欧州を結ぶ定期コンテナ航路の輸送能力をそれぞれ10％削減する。欧米の景気減速で中国や日本から輸出する日用品や家電、産業機械などの荷動きが鈍化しているため。商船三井と川崎汽船も両航路で減便している。米国発の金融危機が実体経済に波及し、国際海運の基幹航路で大手3社がそろって輸送力削減を強いられる形となった。

　日本郵船は独ハパックロイドなど海外の海運3社と連合を組んで両航路で定期コンテナ船サービスを手掛けている。運航する便数はアジア―北米間が現在週9便、アジア―欧州間は同7便。これらを対象に総輸送量を10％削減する。

-----------------------------
マルハニチロ、道内３工場を閉鎖　09年３月までに

　マルハニチロホールディングスは2009年3月末までに、子会社が運営する道内3工場を閉鎖する。07年の経営統合に伴い、重複する工場を再編・統合して生産効率を高める計画の一環。

　閉鎖するのはデイジー食品工業（富良野市）の士別工場、オホーツクニチロ（網走管内雄武町）の雄武工場、北海道あけぼの食品（胆振管内洞爺湖町）の湧別工場。それぞれ魚介類の缶詰や冷凍食品などを製造しており、従業員数はパート従業員なども含めて計254人。昨年の出荷額は合計で約34 億円という。業務はグループの他の工場に集約する。

　マルハニチロは2010年度までに道内16工場と東北3工場の合計19工場を13―15工場に再編する計画。

-------------------------------
小室容疑者、年利６割で借金　現金入手急ぎ犯行か

　音楽著作権の譲渡を巡る詐欺事件で、音楽プロデューサーの小室哲哉容疑者（49）＝詐欺容疑で逮捕＝が事件当時の借金十数億円のうち3億円を年率60％以上の高利で借りていたことが5日、関係者の話で分かった。同容疑者が家賃を滞納するなど困窮した状態にあったことも判明。大阪地検特捜部はこうした事情が犯行の動機につながったとみて調べている。

　関係者の話などによると、小室容疑者は兵庫県の個人投資家から5億円をだまし取ったとされる2006年8月ごろ、十数億円の借金を抱えていたが、このうち3億円は同年3月に東京都港区の上場企業から月利5％で借りたものだった。単利で計算しても、年利60％以上の高利となる。(16:01)

--------------------------------
タイゾウ、狙いは中川昭一氏の秘書？すでに落選覚悟

　小泉チルドレンの代表格である自民党の杉村太蔵衆院議員（２９）が、選挙後に中川昭一財務・金融担当相＝写真右＝の秘書ポストを狙っているとの噂が永田町で広がっている。

　杉村氏は次期総選挙の北海道１区での自民党公認争いに敗れ、無所属で同区から出馬するみられているが、各種世論調査では“泡沫候補”状態となっている。

　地元でも「自民党北海道連内に入っていた事務所は閑散としていたし、活動している姿は見かけない。本人はミニ集会をこなしていると言っているが…」（道連関係者）といわれており、２期目当選への道筋は見えてこない。

　それだけに、永田町では「杉村氏はすでに落選を覚悟し、次は北海道選出で政権の中枢にいる中川氏の秘書になろうと画策している。本人がそう、吹聴しているらしい。そこで修行を積み、再起を図ろうとしているのでは」（北海道選出の国会議員）との噂が広まっているのだ。

　杉村氏はテニスで国体優勝の経験があるが、中川氏もテニスは玄人はだし。さらに杉村氏はかつて師事していた武部勤元幹事長に絶縁されており、北海道での庇護者として麻生太郎首相の盟友である中川氏を選んだとしてもおかしくはない。

　ただ、中川氏の事務所関係者は「初めて聞いた話だが、おもしろい。テニスを一緒にしたことがあるはずで、かわいがっている。タダ働きなら使ってもいいかも」と笑った。

ZAKZAK 2008/11/05

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三洋、創業時の松下運営…パナソニックの買収で元に

４日の株式市場で三洋電機株がストップ高。パナソニック株も上伸した（クリックで拡大）
４日の株式市場で三洋電機株がストップ高。パナソニック株も上伸した（クリックで拡大）

　三洋電機の買収準備を進めるパナソニック（旧松下電器産業）。同社が創業者の故・松下幸之助に代わって、三洋電機の創業一族によって運営されていた時期があったことは、意外と知られていない。「買収は必然だったのかもしれない」との感想を漏らす財界人は多い。

　大阪で「松下電気器具製作所」が創業したのは１９１８（大正７）年３月のこと。２畳と４畳半の２間の借家で、４畳半を土間に改造して作業場にした。松下幸之助２３歳、幸之助の妻・むめの２１歳、むめのの弟でのちに三洋電機を創業する井植歳男１５歳。「世界のパナソニック」はわずか３人でスタートした。

　幸之助は不遇の人でもあった。両親は幸之助が独立する前に亡くなり、２人の兄と５人の姉も全員病死。松下家を引き継ぐのは幸之助ただ１人になった。亡くなった姉が生前、おぜん立てしてくれたのが、井植むめのとの結婚だった。むめのは弟３人を兵庫県の淡路島から呼び寄せ、仕事を手伝わせた。弟３人は三洋電機創業者の井植歳男のほか、祐郎、薫だった。

【井植家が“経営”】
パナソニック、三洋電機創業家の血縁関係（クリックで拡大）
パナソニック、三洋電機創業家の血縁関係（クリックで拡大）

　戦前、松下電器を経営していたのは井植歳男。歳男と幸之助は何から何まで対照的だった。もっとも違ったのは健康面。頑健な歳男は、年に何回か寝込んでしまう幸之助の代理として松下電器を預かった。

　３５年、個人経営から株式会社として発足した松下電器産業には、専務の歳男をはじめ井植兄弟、むめのの２人の妹の夫や井植家の親戚が役員や幹部社員に名を連ねた。松下電器は、松下家というより、のちに三洋電機を創業する井植家の同族経営といえた。

　ただ幸之助は病で伏しているようなときでも、歳男を自宅に呼び寄せて自分の意志を伝え、自ら経営判断を下した。ＣＥＯ（最高経営責任者）は幸之助で、歳男はＣＯＯ（最高執行責任者）だったわけだが、敗戦が２人のたもとを分かつことになった。

【ＧＨＱに追われ】

　松下電器は軍部の要請で軍需産業に乗り出していたため、ＧＨＱ（連合国軍総司令部）から役員が公職追放を受けた。創立以来３０年間、幸之助の右腕として働いてきた歳男は辞任。その歳男は４７年、自転車用発電ランプを製造する個人企業「三洋電機製作所」を創設する。これが三洋電機だ。

【世襲捨てられず】

　勢いに乗る松下電器と低迷する三洋電機の差は何によって生じたのか。財界関係者は世襲経営だと指摘する。

　「松下電器は戦後、番頭経営に移行した。幸之助の死去後、創業家とのすさまじい抗争をへて、経営陣は世襲経営を封印した。ところが、三洋電機は世襲経営を続け、結局、経営危機に陥った」という。

　松下電器改めパナソニックは三洋電機を子会社にする方向だ。「これで元のサヤにおさまった」－。そう感想を述べる業界関係者は多い。（敬称略）

ZAKZAK 2008/11/05

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株暴落ワースト１０社…下げ止まらぬ不動産、自動車も

みずほＦＧも半値に近い下落率

　日経平均株価が２６年ぶりに７０００円割れを起こすなど、歴史的な値動きをみせた株式市場。東証１部上場銘柄（約１７００銘柄）でも、１０月の１カ月間で半値以下に暴落した銘柄が相次いだ。同月中の「下落率ワースト５０社」をみると、常連組の不動産に加えて、メガバンクや自動車、電機などの主力銘柄もランクイン。カリスマ経営者が率いる有名企業も売りを浴びた。

　相変わらず下落が止まらないのが、新興の不動産会社だ。

　不動産投資会社、パシフィックホールディングス（東京）の１０月中の下落率は、実に８４．９％。９月２６日に２００８年１１月期の業績予想を下方修正。連結当期純損益は４６億円の赤字から２５０億円の赤字と大幅に悪化する見通しだ。

　さらに同社は大和証券グループ本社から出資を受けるべく交渉していたが、同３０日に大和証券グループが単独での資本参加は見送ると発表。財務面の不安が頭をもたげている。

　パシフィックの株価は同２６日から１５営業日連続でストップ安に見舞われる事態となった。

　不動産運用会社、クリード（東京）も８０．７％の下落。１０月８日に発表した０９年５月期第１四半期（０８年６～８月）の連結純損益が２億９３００万円の赤字に転落した。宗吉敏彦社長（４３）が個人的に銀行融資の担保に差し入れていたクリード株が、担保割れを起こして売却される事態となり、このことも嫌気された。

　円高などの影響で業績が悪化した輸出企業も売り込まれた。

　ＡＶ機器メーカーのパイオニア（東京、下落率５８．４％）は、０９年３月期の連結最終損益が７８０億円の赤字となる見通しとなり、須藤民彦社長（６１）が引責辞任する事態になった。

　自動車大手のマツダ（広島、同４９．０％）も今期の営業利益見通しを下方修正。円高が進行するなか、同業他社に比べて輸出の比率が高いことも売り材料となった。

　株式評論家の植木靖男氏は「最近の株式市場では、原料を買って製品を作っている会社は売り、資源関連の会社は買いという現象が起きている。薄型テレビなどの製品は原材料価格が上がる一方で商品価格は下がっているので、あまりもうからない」と指摘する。

　メガバンクの一角、みずほフィナンシャルグループ（東京）も下落率が４７．５％と半値に近い水準。同社は、景気後退に伴って融資先の与信コストが増加したほか、金融市場の混乱で有価証券の減損処理が膨らみ、０８年９月中間期と０９年３月期の純利益を大幅に下方修正した。

　新生銀行（東京、同５２．９％）、あおぞら銀行（東京、同５０．０％）はともに、経営破綻した米証券大手リーマン・ブラザーズ向けの大口債権を保有。業績の下方修正や経営健全化計画の見直しを迫られた。

【カリスマ経営者の企業にも逆風が吹き】

　有名経営者の企業にも逆風が吹き荒れた。

　半導体大手のエルピーダメモリ（東京、同７３．６％）は市況の低迷で、９月中間期に赤字転落する見通しに。５００億円の転換社債（ＭＳＣＢ）発行で、株式価値の希薄化も懸念材料となった。０２年に社長に就任した坂本幸雄氏（６１）は、大赤字だった同社を短期間で黒字転換させたことで知られるが、今回の業績悪化で１１月と１２月の役員報酬を全額返上し、再び経営の立て直しに挑戦中だ。

　携帯電話向けのポータル（玄関）サイト「モバゲータウン」を運営するディー・エヌ・エー（東京、同４８．１％）は１０月２８日、上場以来初の業績下方修正を行った。同社はコンサルティング会社マッキンゼー出身の南場智子社長（４６）が１９９９年に設立、急成長してきた。国内ケータイ市場の飽和感が指摘されており日本を代表する女性経営者の手腕が注目される。

　人気株としてもてはやされた建設機械大手、日立建機（東京、同５６．４％）は円高の影響で業績を下方修正したことが響いた。

　植木氏は同社について「ヘッジファンドが換金売りを出しており、業績の内容より需給の悪化で下がった要因も大きい。資源開発用の鉱山機械は引き続き好調で、今後は期待できるのでは」とみている。

ZAKZAK 2008/11/05

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窃盗：中高層マンションで空き巣　「ムササビ男」逮捕

　とび職の経験と１５５センチの小柄な体を生かし、中高層マンションの屋上から雨どいなどを伝って空き巣をしていた男（３６）が、警視庁代々木署に窃盗と住居侵入容疑で現行犯逮捕された。深夜から未明に出没し、捜査員から「平成のムササビ」と呼ばれていた。

　逮捕されたのは、住所不定、無職、南篤司容疑者。

　調べでは、南容疑者は１０月１８日午後６時ごろ、渋谷区幡ケ谷３の４階建てマンションの一室に、屋上から壁を伝ってベランダ経由で侵入、ポロシャツ１枚を盗んだ疑い。住人の男性会社員（４５）と鉢合わせし、署員に取り押さえられた。南容疑者は０３年７月にも常習累犯窃盗容疑で逮捕され、９月上旬に出所したばかり。「刑務所に入り勘が鈍った」と供述しているという。

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航空幕僚長更迭：田母神空将が３日付けで定年退職
発表した論文について用意してきた文を会見で読む田母神俊雄・前航空幕僚長＝東京都中央区の時事通信社で２００８年１１月３日午後８時３２分、梅田麻衣子撮影
発表した論文について用意してきた文を会見で読む田母神俊雄・前航空幕僚長＝東京都中央区の時事通信社で２００８年１１月３日午後８時３２分、梅田麻衣子撮影

　防衛省は３日、歴史認識に関し政府見解に反する論文を公表して航空幕僚長から航空幕僚監部付に更迭された田母神俊雄空将（６０）を、同日付で定年退職とする人事を発表した。政府は国会審議や外交に与える影響を最小限に食い止める方針で、論文発覚からわずか３日後の異例の退職人事は早期の「幕引き」が狙いとみられる。

　空幕長の定年は満６２歳だが、空将としての定年は満６０歳。田母神空将は更迭された時点で定年を過ぎている。このため同省は当初、自衛隊法４５条に基づき１１月末まで田母神空将の定年を延長。本人から辞職の意思確認や、論文について懲戒処分の対象になるかどうかを調べる方針だったが、空将が調査に応じなかったため、定年延長を打ち切る異例の形を取ったという。

　定年退職のため、退職金は満額支給されるとみられる。同省は「支給額は現在精査中だ」としている。【松尾良】
　◇改めて持論

　政府見解に反する論文問題で航空幕僚長を更迭され、３日付で定年退職が決まった田母神（たもがみ）俊雄氏は同日夜、東京都内で記者会見し、「国家国民のために信念に従って書いたことで断腸の思い。日本は決して侵略国家ではない」と改めて持論を展開した。また、「むしろこれを契機に活発な論議を願う」と、国会への参考人招致に応じる考えを明らかにした。

　スーツ姿で現れた田母神氏は、現職の空幕長として論文を投稿した理由について「これほど大騒ぎになるとは正直予想していなかった。日本もそろそろ自由に発言ができる、という私の判断が間違っていたかもしれない」と述べつつも、「今回のことが政治に利用され、自衛隊全体の名誉が汚されることは本意ではない」と複雑な心境を明かした。

　他の複数の自衛官が論文に応募していたことについては「紹介はしたが、『書きなさい』とは言っていない」と釈明した。

　更迭理由となった政府見解との食い違いについては「政府見解は検証されるべきだ。一言も反論できないようでは、北朝鮮と同じ」と述べた。さらに「戦後教育による『侵略国家』の呪縛が、国民の自信を喪失させ、自衛隊の士気を低下させ、安全保障体制を損ねている」などと、約３０分間、信念を語った。【本多健】

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妊婦拒否：杏林大病院など６病院も　女性意識不明の重体に

　おう吐や半身まひなど脳内出血の症状を訴えた東京都調布市の妊婦（３２）が今年９月、リスクの高い妊婦に対応する「総合周産期母子医療センター」に指定されている杏林大病院（東京都三鷹市）など６病院から受け入れを拒否されていたことが分かった。女性は最初の受け入れ要請から約４時間後に都立墨東病院（墨田区）に搬送され出産したが、現在も意識不明の重体。子供は無事だった。

　都内の別の妊婦が１０月、墨東病院など８病院に受け入れを拒否され死亡した事故の約２週間前に起きたケースで、妊婦に対する救急医療体制の不備が改めて浮かび上がった。

　この妊婦のかかりつけ病院だった調布市の飯野病院によると、女性は出産のため９月２２日に入院。２３日午前０時ごろからおう吐や右半身まひなどの症状が出た。脳内出血の疑いがあり、医師が外科治療が必要と判断、午前３時ごろから複数回、杏林大病院に受け入れを要請したが、「産科医が手術中で人手が足りない」と拒否されたという。

　一方、杏林大病院によると、要請を受けた時、当直医２人が手術中で、約１時間後に再要請を受けた時も術後管理や空きベッドがなかったことから受け入れられなかったという。岩下光利・同大教授（産婦人科）は「飯野病院からの連絡に切迫性はなく、外科措置が必要との認識はなかった」と話している。その後、杏林大病院は飯野病院と分担し、小平市など多摩地区の３病院と２３区内の２病院に問い合わせたがいずれも受け入れを拒否されたという。

　東京都内の周産期医療システムでは、多摩地区の総合周産期母子医療センターなどで受け入れができない場合は、２３区内の八つの総合周産期母子医療センターが輪番で対応することになっており、午前５時半ごろ、約２５キロ離れた墨東病院での受け入れが決定。同７時ごろ、搬送されたという。

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モンゴル留学生、力士目指し養子作戦…協会側は即刻却下

　大相撲の外国人力士の受け入れ枠に１部屋１人の制限がある中、２年以上も入門を待たされたモンゴル人留学生が日本人の恩師と養子縁組した上で、「日本人扱いの特例入門」を日本相撲協会に打診していたことが４日、わかった。

　養子縁組しても国籍は変わらないため、相撲協会は「抜け道のような特例は認められない」と即刻、却下した。

　留学生は、九州情報大のサンドイジャブ・トドビレグさん（２１）。結局、外国人力士枠に空きが出た玉ノ井部屋に入門、先月３０日に行われた九州場所の新弟子検査を受検できた。トドビレグさんは朝青龍らにスカウトされ、高知・明徳義塾高に留学、２００６年春に卒業していた。しかし、当時は、外国人枠に空きがなく、大学に進んだ。

　周囲の勧めで養子縁組したのは、今年４月。結果的には必要なかったが、養親となった明徳義塾高相撲部の浜村敏之前監督（５３）は「自分の息子として頑張ってほしい」と、期待している。トドビレグさんも「早く関取になりたい」と夢を語った。

　こうした養子縁組について、法務省民事局は「一般的には、公序良俗に反していなければ、目的だけを見て駄目とは言えない」としている。相撲協会によると、現在、外国人力士がいない部屋は「５」。元若ノ鵬らロシア人力士が解雇され、空きが増えた形となっているが、指導の難しさなどから受け入れていない師匠もいる。