View of the Day: UK recession

View of the Day: UK recession

By Jonathan Loynes

Published: November 17 2008 16:32 | Last updated: November 17 2008 16:32

The prospect of a fiscal boost in the Pre-Budget Report and the recent fall in sterling will not prevent a severe UK recession says Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics.

He says the consensus at this weekend’s G20 meeting that governments should do whatever necessary to aid their economies has given a green light to a package of tax cuts or spending increases in Monday’s PBR.

“But there are reasons not to expect the package to provide much support for the economy in the near future,” says Mr Loynes.

First, he says, there is a question mark over whether it will be big enough. Second, while some tax cuts look likely, a significant part of the package may consist of bringing forward planned spending projects. Finally, there are concerns over the longer-term impact of a further worsening in the fiscal position.

He says while the pound’s drop should boost exporters and companies competing with imports, exports are more influenced by the strength of overseas demand than by the exchange rate.

“Accordingly, with overseas demand likely to remain very weak for a number of quarters, it seems unlikely that the weaker pound will give exports a meaningful boost until 2010 at the earliest.”

While looser fiscal policy and a lower exchange rate may be positive over the medium to long term, the Bank of England will have to loosen monetary policy further. “We continue to expect UK interest rates to fall to 1 per cent or even lower.”

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Insight: The dollar is a flawed currency

By Jim Rogers

Published: November 17 2008 16:05 | Last updated: November 17 2008 16:05

The following are excerpts from this week’s View from the Markets online interview

FT: It’s a year since we last interviewed you. You were aggressively bearish about the dollar, but you thought there would probably be a rebound and you would take that as an opportunity to further get out of the dollar. Have you made a further exit from the dollar?

JR: Not yet, no. And the reason I haven’t is because we’re in a period of forced liquidation of everything. We’ve only had eight or nine periods like this in the past 150 years, where everybody has to reverse their positions on everything. There is a gigantic short position in the dollar and they’re all having to cover as they reverse their positions, so this rout is going to go on much further than I would have expected, to my delight, because then I’ll get to sell at higher prices. I don’t know whether I’ll get out this month or this year even, maybe next year, but I do plan to get out of the rest of my US dollars, because this is an artificial rally caused purely by short covering.

FT: How will you tell when that deleveraging is finally over?

JR: I’m sure I won’t get it right, but I do hope that when there’s a lot of euphoria about the dollar and everybody’s saying, well, see, there’s no problem with the dollar... I hope I’m smart enough to recognise it and finally get out of the dollar, because it is a flawed and maybe, even, doomed currency.

FT: Do you see the sell-offs we’ve seen in commodities as a drastic correction?

JR: Well, we’re in a period of forced liquidation of all assets... we’re getting the business cycle effect on demand right now, certainly, but unless the world’s in perpetual economic decline, commodities are the only thing going to come out of this okay.

FT: Does this mean you’re actually buying back into commodities at the moment, or is this an area you’re standing clear of?

JR: No, no. In October when I started covering my shorts in the US stock market, I started buying Chinese shares, Taiwan shares, I started buying commodities again. No, no, I’ve added to those positions.

FT: What’s your strategy towards emerging market stocks?

JR: My hope is that I’m smart enough and brave enough at some point along the line to buy some of them back. But I’m not even thinking about it right now... The world’s financial situation is in a mess, and there are a lot of people who have to liquidate. I mean, we must have had 30,000 MBAs flying around the world looking for emerging markets. All of that money has got to come home.

FT: How do you think the world should go about redesigning the regulatory system, and are you worried that we’re going to end up with a swing towards over-regulation?

JR: Well, we probably will, The problem is that people like Alan Greenspan would never let the market work... For 15 years, under Greenspan, and now Bernanke, they would not let the market work. Had they let Long-Term Capital Management fail back in 1998, we wouldn’t have these problems now, I assure you. Lehman Brothers would have been smashed. Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, would have been smashed. We wouldn’t have these problems now. That only happened because every time they turned around they propped these guys up, gave them more money, and that’s why we have the problem... But now, of course, they’re going to blame it on other people and cause more regulations.

FT: You’re arguing we need to allow some more big institutions to fail?

JR: One failed. Why didn’t they let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? I mean, I was short Fannie Mae, and they should have let it fail, go zero. AIG, they should have let it fail, they should have let all of these guys fail, and we would clean out the system... What they’re doing is they’re taking the assets away from the competent people, giving them to the incompetent people and saying to the incompetent: “Okay, now you can compete with the competent people, with their money.” I mean this is terrible economics. This is outrageous economics.

Jim Rogers is an investor, author and founder of the Rogers International Commodity Index. You can also hear his views on oil, China and the Japanese yen at www.ft.com/vftm

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Pirates raise stakes with oil tanker hijack

By Andrew England in Cairo and Robert Wright in London

Published: November 17 2008 13:11 | Last updated: November 17 2008 19:08

Pirates operating off the coast of east Africa have hijacked a Saudi supertanker fully laden with an estimated 2m barrels of oil in an attack that marks a significant escalation in the scope of banditry in the region.

The pirates, believed to be from lawless Somalia, seized control of the Sirius Star, which is owned by Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, on Saturday, 450 nautical miles south-east of the Kenyan Indian Ocean port of Mombasa.

It is estimated that the tanker was holding more than a quarter of the daily exports from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter. The oil would have been worth about $100m (€79m, £66.5m) at Monday’s market price but is probably of little interest to the pirates.

Pottengal Mukundan, director of the International Maritime Bureau, said that the only cargoes that had interested Somali pirates previously were the shipments of World Food Programme aid.

Instead, pirates seize vessels to extort ransoms – often of about $2m – from shipowners desperate to have their crews returned.

Somali lawlessness spreads

November 16: Abdullahi Yusuf, Somalia’s president, says Islamist insurgents now control most of the south of the country, with the exception of the coastal capital and, Baidoa, the provincial seat of parliament

November 15: The Sirius Star, a fully laden Saudi tanker carrying 2m barrels of oil is attacked 450 nautical miles south-east of Mombasa, Kenya, the US Navy says

November 12: Two Somali pirates die in an exchange of fire with the Royal Navy in the Gulf of Aden. Somali Islamists, who have been gaining territory all year, take the port of Merka and the town of Elasha, bringing them within nine miles of Mogadishu, the capital

October 1: The Russian and US navies are given permission by Somalia’s interim government to use force against pirates who hijacked a Ukrainian ship laden with 33 tanks and other military hardware

September 15: European Union foreign ministers approve plans for a possible naval mission to the Horn of Africa to crack down on Somali pirates

The number of pirate acts reported to have occurred or been attempted off the coast of east Africa rose to 84 between January and September, compared with 46 over the same period in 2007, according to the International Maritime Organisation, making it the world’s worst affected region in terms of piracy.

Pirates currently hold 14 ships off the coast of Somalia.

Seven per cent of world oil consumption passed through the Gulf of Aden in 2007, according to Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit.

The tanker is about three times the tonnage of a US aircraft carrier, making it the largest vessel ever seized by pirates.

The attack also took place farther out to sea than before, signalling that the pirates have become increasingly bold, organised and able to adapt their tactics, experts say.

“It certainly represents a fundamental change in the pirates’ ability to be able to attack vessels out to sea,” said Lieutenant Nathan Christensen, a spokesman for the US Fifth Fleet, which patrols the region’s waters.

Somali pirates in speed boats, heavily armed with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, have been wreaking havoc in the Gulf of Aden, launching regular attacks on vessels in the past two years. But the latest incident suggests they are moving further south into the Indian Ocean as western navies increase their patrols off the waters of Somalia, experts say.

The seizure puts an end to hopes that a succession of engagements in recent weeks between international military forces and pirates might have put an end to the security crisis in the area.

While most other seizures have been of vessels heading into or out of the Suez Canal, the latest incident will raise question marks about the safety of the route from the Arabian Gulf to the Cape of Good Hope – a route taken by the largest oil tankers heading from the world’s main oil-producing regions to both Europe and North America.

The development therefore puts at risk a far higher proportion of the world’s energy shipments than the 12 per cent that shipping organisations had already considered in danger. “That route from the Cape to the Gulf was not considered the riskiest route,” said Mr Mukundan.

Cyrus Mody, manager at the International Maritime Bureau, said the pirates would probably look to move the Sirius Star to the coast of Somalia where they would anchor it and begin negotiation with the owners.

However, the pirates are likely to face challenges navigating the vast ship, which will be sitting far too low in the water to go anywhere near the coast where they have normally taken captured ships.

Mr Mukundan also warned there was a substantial danger of pollution, either if the vessel was involved in an accident through poor navigation or if the cargo was not properly cared for while it was being held.

The Sirius Star, flagged in Liberia and operated by Vela International, has a deadweight tonnage of 318,000 tonnes and sits 10m above the water level. Its 25-man crew is made up of numerous nationalities, including Britons and Saudis.

“I think they will demand good money because it’s a brand new ship,” said Andrew Mwangura, of the East Africa Seafarers’ Assistance Programme. “I think they have hit the jackpot.”

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Berlin set to give Opel €1bn guarantee

By Bertrand Benoit in Berlin

Published: November 17 2008 23:34 | Last updated: November 17 2008 23:34

Berlin is ready to give Opel a €1bn credit guarantee after the German arm of General Motors said it could run out of cash.

A final decision would be taken by late December, Angela Merkel, the country’s chancellor, said on Monday, adding that any funds covered would be expected to stay in Germany.

“This is a special case,” she said after meeting GM’s European management and workers representatives at the chancellery.

“This is the basis on which we are talking.”

Carl-Peter Forster, the European head of GM, said: “We are talking about a safety net for the highly unlikely scenario that we should no longer have access to liquidity in the mid or long term.”

GM said this month that it risked reaching the minimum amount of cash needed to operate its worldwide business by early 2009 unless car markets revived or it found new sources of funding. The carmaker is seeking emergency government aid in the US, along with Ford and Chrysler.

Opel is suffering a dramatic slump in demand. The brand’s sales and those of Vauxhall, its sister marque, fell nearly 14 per cent year-on-year in western Europe between January and October, compared with a 6 per cent drop in the overall market, according to Acea, the carmakers’ association.

Opel, which has been in US hands since 1929, employs 25,700 people in four German states. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a car industry expert, estimates that about 100,000 jobs at suppliers depend on the company.

Another meeting between federal government representatives and the state premiers of Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate and Thuringia is scheduled on Tuesday to discuss the crisis at Opel.

Roland Koch, the caretaker premier of Hesse, where Opel’s Rüsselsheim headquarters are based, obtained the go-ahead from the regional parliament on Monday to authorise a credit guarantee of up to €500m for the carmaker.

Berlin informed the European Commission on Monday that it was in talks about granting the carmaker a credit guarantee. Government officials said Ms Merkel had discussed the situation at General Motors with Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, in Washington at the weekend.

The flurry of activity around the ailing carmaker came as both Ms Merkel and Frank-Walter Steinmeier – her foreign minister who will head his Social Democratic party’s ticket at next year’s general election – were accused of underestimating the severity of the economic crisis that has hit Europe’s largest economy.

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Survey exposes depth of US woe

By James Politi in Washington

Published: November 17 2008 19:43 | Last updated: November 17 2008 19:43

Economists believe the US has been in recession since April and will remain there until the middle of 2009, according to a survey published on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The bleak report by the Philly Fed confirms the sharp deterioration in US economic conditions in recent months as the credit crisis intensified and unemployment rose sharply.

The survey, based on interviews with 51 leading economic forecasters, is published every three months. Monday’s report said participants were “unanimous” in describing the US economy as being either in a recession or on the brink of one. Most said the recession had begun in April and would last 14 months.

The deepening US economic turmoil was reflected in the survey’s projections for gross domestic product in the coming quarter. Whereas three months ago forecasters were expecting annualised growth of 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 1.6 per cent in the first quarter of next year, they are now predicting annualised contractions of 2.9 per cent in the current quarter and 1.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2009. The US economy retrenched at an annualised rate of 0.3 per cent in the third quarter of this year.

About two-thirds of participants in the survey said their forecast assumed the US would enact a new fiscal stimulus package of about $211bn, eclipsing the $150bn stimulus earlier this year.

US data has been remarkably poor over the past few weeks, with most indicators disappointing even increasingly pessimistic expectations by economists. On Friday, the commerce department revealed that retail sales fell in October by 2.8 per cent – the biggest monthly drop on record – highlighting the plight of the US consumer heading into the key Christmas shopping season. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 6.1 per cent to 6.5 per cent last month as the economy shed 240,000 jobs.

One piece of encouraging news came on Monday from data on industrial production, which rose by 1.3 per cent, or more than the 0.2 per cent gain expected by economists. But, any sense that heavy-duty manufacturing might be holding up amid the downturn was tempered by a sharp downward revision to the September data, when industrial production fell by 3.7 per cent partly on the back of hurricanes Ike and Gustav, compared to the previous estimate of a 2.8 per cent drop.

“Taken together, industrial production is clearly down over the last two months, so underlying deterioration has happened underneath the distortions caused by the hurricanes,” said Goldman Sachs economists in a note.

In coming days, all eyes will be on inflation data –- with the release of consumer price and producer price indices. Meanwhile, Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, and Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, will on Tuesday testify before the House financial services committee.

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Russia to cut oil export duty by third

By Isabel Gorst in Moscow

Published: November 17 2008 20:51 | Last updated: November 17 2008 20:51

Russia plans to cut its oil export duties by a third next month, offering much-needed relief to companies that have been making a loss on their crude exports.

Exporting oil from Russia, the world’s second biggest producer, has become unprofitable as a result of the fall in the price of crude and heavy taxation.

Oil companies had been warning they were being forced to cut their exports, intensifying the financial crisis engulfing Russia.

The Russian government has been calling on the companies to sustain their exports, and indicated on Monday that there would be a steep cut in oil duty to reflect the fall in oil prices.

The duty, which is adjusted monthly, is set to be cut to $192 a tonne from $297 a tonne, a 33 per cent reduction.

Valery Nesterov, an oil analyst at Troika Dialog, said: “It is not easy in a time of crisis for the government to cut taxes, but they cannot kill the milk cow of the budget, the oil sector. So the government is in a precarious situation”

Under-investment in the oil industry would contribute to a 2-3 per cent decline in output next year, he said.

Prices for Urals, the Russian crude export blend, last week dipped below $50 a barrel for the first time since January 2007 as demand weakened in Europe, Russia’s biggest market. It dropped on Monday to $48.32.

Russian oil trades at a discount against international benchmarks such as Brent because of its lower quality.

Moscow-based oil traders said they were braced for losses of up to $17 a barrel in November on crude sales overseas because the duty of $39 a barrel was higher than the export price of Urals crude less transport costs.

Lukoil, Russia’s biggest private oil company, said last week: “This is frightful. It is very bad. Crude oil exports are losing profitability.”

The Kremlin last week ordered the majors not to implement a threat to cut oil exports in November.

Oil companies were last week summoned to the energy ministry and told to drop plans to cut oil exports by 25 per cent.

The companies said they would at least partially comply with government instructions and honour long-term export contracts.

Mr Nesterov said it would be “crazy” for Russia to cede markets to competitors at a time when Europe was seeking to reduce dependence on Russian energy supplies.

Nonetheless, Russian crude oil exports, which sank by 6 per cent in the first 10 months of the year, are expected to decline more sharply in the coming weeks.

The new duty rate will be $26 per barrel, meaning that some exports would still be unprofitable unless the oil price recovers.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, said tax reforms would be introduced in January to encourage companies to invest in oilfields and reverse a decline in production that set in this year after a decade of unbroken growth.

But oil companies have said deeper tax cuts are required to prevent a reduction in investment in 2009.

Dmitri Loukashov, an oil analyst at UBS, said that it was doubtful that the government would cut oil taxation if the financial crisis intensified.

“Receiving less tax is more of a problem than a drop in oil production,” he said.

Mr Nesterov said that it would be challenging for the government to balance conflicting goals to ensure both the health of the oil industry and budgetary wellbeing.

Mr Putin has signalled willingness to join efforts by Opec, the oil producers’ cartel, to prop up prices, saying Russia could not “sit on the sidelines” while other large exporters plotted world prices.

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Medicines shortage fears grow

By Andrew Jack

Published: November 17 2008 23:12 | Last updated: November 17 2008 23:12

British patients face the prospect of drug shortages as the falling price of medicines makes it more profitable for pharmacists and wholesalers to sell them abroad.

The weakening of sterling against the euro has reduced British drug prices, compared with levels in other countries.

That has fuelled a surge in the legal but grey practice of exporting drugs from the UK to more expensive medicine markets elsewhere in northern Europe – so-called parallel trade.

Supplies could tighten further from January 1, when the government’s Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme comes into force, imposing a 5 per cent price cut on prescription medicines bought by the National Health Service.

Andrew Hotchkiss, managing director of the UK operations of Eli Lilly, the US-based pharmaceutical company, warned of a “triple whammy” creating supply shortages, with the falling pound, price cuts and both fewer imports and more exports all creating uncertainties that could mean medicines are not available in pharmacies.

“We’re worried about patient access,” he told the Financial Times.

Britain has traditionally been an importer of medicines via parallel trade.

Wholesalers and many individual pharmacies have licences that allow them legitimately to export medicines from the UK to other countries where they fetch higher prices.

Concerns are growing that this may increasingly squeeze supplies to British patients.

Martin Sawer, spokesman for the British Association of Pharmaceutical Wholesalers, which distributes medicines from drug companies to pharmacies, said he agreed that there were risks of supply shortages, especially since medicine stocks are likely to run low over the Christmas holidays.

The situation risked being worse than at any time in the past because the introduction of computerised stock control meant pharmacies often held smaller volumes of supplies.

However, he said his members would always ensure that domestic pharmacies and patients received sufficient supplies before they exported any surplus.

Groups of pharmacies may deliberately order more medicine than they require, selling the remainder at a profit – a practice known as skimming. Prices in other northern European countries are about 10 per cent or more higher than in the UK.

Paul Johnson, UK managing director of IMS Health, the data consultancy, agreed that the UK’s share of parallel trade across Europe, traditionally about 30 per cent, had been shrinking since the spring – with faster growth in other higher priced markets. “The UK still has significant parallel imports but they have reduced dramatically in the last few months. And a whole range of products are now being exported. This is a perfect storm.”

He estimated that parallel trade accounted for nearly 10 per cent of Europe’s total prescription medicine sales and involved purchases from low-cost countries led by Greece, Spain and Portugal, with re-sale into the UK, Germany, Benelux and the Nordic region, where parallel imports accounted for nearly €5bn (£4.2bn) a year.

The trend in parallel exports from the UK helps boost sales of medicine wholesalers as well as the domestic subsidiaries of international drug companies.

However, global drug companies have long opposed the practice of parallel trade across Europe, claiming it deprives them of profits while offering few savings to healthcare systems, with most of the price difference taken by intermediaries.

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Warning of huge drop in social housing

By Jim Pickard, Political Correspondent

Published: November 17 2008 22:40 | Last updated: November 17 2008 22:40

There will be a “catastrophic” collapse in provision of new social housing at a time of record waiting lists without urgent intervention by the government, housing associations have warned.

Britain’s 1,900 social landlords, which own half the UK’s stock of 4m council houses, are urging ministers to change the way they are funded to prevent the supply of new, affordable housing drying up completely.

Their ability to build social housing has been hit by the credit crunch, with rising fears about their own financial health.

The Housing Corporation, which funds and monitors the sector, has begun an urgent review of 258 associations. Of 39 examined so far, four have been given an “amber” warning, meaning there are serious fears about their future. Most associations have had to carry out “remedial strategies”, according to the quango.

The associations are, meanwhile, lobbying the government to relax limits on how much central funding can be used for development schemes. At present the grants from the Housing Corporation can provide only up to 40 per cent of a scheme’s funding, with the rest coming from borrowing or sales of private dwellings within the same projects.

The National Housing Federation, which represents the associations, is urging ministers to relax this rule to prevent a “catastrophic” drop in new social housing when there are a record 1.7m households – or 4m people – on waiting lists.

Associations have in recent years been encouraged to carry out development, with the help of bank debt, to subsidise their activities. Many borrowed heavily at the top of the market to buy land banks on which they planned to build vast numbers of new homes.

Typically they sell a large proportion of properties to private buyers to subsidise the social housing they are obliged to build. This is in addition to the large amounts of social housing pri­vate housebuilders have to create to get planning permission from councils. But the collapse in the private housing market has rendered many of these projects unviable.

With debt costs rising and finance being withdrawn by banks, some associations have cut their payrolls, with the largest group, Places for People, expected to cut 100 staff. A survey by Baker Tilly, the advisers, shows that 75 per cent of housing association directors expect to see “significant financial difficulties” in the sector in the coming year.

The associations’ plight is emerging as Margaret Beckett, the housing minister, is considering ending the “council house for life” in a bid to deal with the shortage by creating more vacant properties.

The housing associations’ problems will raise further questions about the government’s target of 3m new homes to be built by 2020. About 45,000 units of social housing are expected to be built this year in the UK, out of a total of 70,000.

But David Orr, chief executive of the NHF, told the Financial Times housing associations were battening down their hatches.

“We can’t put new homes on site at the moment if we are assuming cross-subsidy from private homes. To achieve a similar figure next year we need a decision from the government about reprofiling what we do,” he said. Even if the government met the NHF’s demands and allows more grant money to be used per building, there would be “fewer houses for the same amount of public investment”, said Mr Orr.

But the alternative could be a standstill.

“We could do 35,000 to 40,000 homes maybe [in 2009], or we could do nothing, if we assume it wil . . . be paid for in the way we have previously expected.”

Mr Orr said most housing associations were fundamentally strong because they were asset-rich, but: “Clearly it is possible . . . one or two associations have extended so much that they won’t be able to get through.”

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Building societies and overseas banks targeted in tax probe

By Vanessa Houlder

Published: November 17 2008 22:04 | Last updated: November 17 2008 22:04

A fresh onslaught on offshore tax evasion is to be mounted by UK Revenue & Customs early next year when it targets customers of 25 building societies and foreign banks with British operations.

The move follows the Revenue’s success last year in forcing five British high street banks to disclose details of secret offshore accounts. That assault, accompanied by the offer of an amnesty, recovered around £400m in unpaid taxes at a cost to the Exchequer of just £6.5m.

The Revenue is also set to initiate the first prosecutions for tax evasion, arising from that early probe. Five people have been identified as targets for criminal sanctions.

As with the first wave, the new move on building societies and foreign banks will coincide with the launch of a partial amnesty next spring. The 25 will receive legal notices ordering them to disclose details of British residents with foreign accounts in coming weeks. The legal manoeuvre is expected to yield hundreds of millions of pounds more of revenue hidden from the Exchequer by wealthy individuals.

The foreign banks chosen are those thought most likely to yield the largest number of possible tax evaders, but Stephen Camm of PwC said he expected the Revenue to adopt the same approach to all of the 500-odd banks with a UK presence.

The Revenue sent a memorandum to advisers this week saying its objective “will be to obtain information from a new tranche of financial institutions, using the same legal powers as applied to the first five banks.

“The intention of the new exercise will be to provide an opportunity for account holders to inform us of their own accord, if they have unpaid tax or duties and to settle their debts in a similar way to the original offshore disclosure facility.”

The new amnesty is likely to levy penalties of 15-20 per cent, significantly more than the 10 per cent levied in last year’s amnesty but much less than the 100 per cent maximum. Last year’s amnesty yielded less than expected but proved highly cost-effective for the Revenue.

Legal battles are looming over the banks’ willingness to disclose details about some customers. Unlike the high street banks which were the target of the Revenue’s last name-gathering campaign, some of the institutions do not hold the names of potential evaders in the UK.

Officials have told advisers that they believe they will be able to get round strict Swiss secrecy laws, which make it a criminal offence to divulge client information.

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Citi cuts 52,000 more jobs

By Francesco Guerrera in New York

Published: November 17 2008 14:17 | Last updated: November 18 2008 01:18

Citigroup took radical action on Monday to cushion the blows of the financial turmoil and revive its flagging share price, announcing plans to axe 52,000 jobs, or one in seven employees, and slash costs by about $10bn (£6.6bn).

The moves, unveiled by chief executive Vikram Pandit in a meeting with staff, are a dramatic escalation of Citi’s efforts to deal with a crisis that has forced it to record a loss in each of the past four quarters. The company’s poor performance and continued slide in its shares have raised the pressure on Mr Pandit amid simmering internal disagreements and a boardroom revolt over Citi’s failure to buy Wachovia, a US regional lender.

Citi’s shares have lost nearly three-quarters of their value in the past year. They fell 6.6 per cent to $8.89 on Monday after it warned that next year would be “difficult”.

In a further sign of Citi’s fall from grace, a regulatory filing showed that Carl Icahn, the activist investor who targets companies whose shares are in the doldrums and often agitates for strategic changes, held a small holding of 800,000 shares.

Citi has suffered more than $50bn in writedowns and credit provisions since the crisis began. In the first nine months of the year, the US financial services giant announced plans to cut 23,000 jobs as the credit crunch took a severe toll on its investment banking and consumer businesses. Monday’s cuts will be in addition to these.

About half of the redundancies will be in businesses Citi is selling, including its German retail banking operations. The rest will come from cuts in existing businesses, including Citi’s investment banking operations in New York, London and Hong Kong. Back-office jobs will also be reduced.

Mr Pandit said the new cuts would be completed “in the near term”, bringing total staff to 300,000 – the lowest in nearly three years. “That’s a tough message,” he said, according to people who listened to his “town hall” meeting with staff. “This is probably the single toughest part of my job here . . . We’re not doing that because we want to, but because we have to.”

Mr Pandit, who took over in December after the ousting of Chuck Prince, said expenses in 2009 would be about $52bn, down from $62bn this year – a 20 per cent fall on the record reached in the last quarter of 2007.

Citi on Monday classified $80bn of toxic assets as “held for investment” – an accounting treatment that means it will not have to take quarterly writedowns.

Citi said more than $120bn in securitised assets held in off-balance sheet vehicles would come back on to its books due to a recent accounting change. Citi will have to use capital to cover these assets and said it was “planning for these eventualities”. Citi also said its maximum exposure to $406bn in assets held in other off-balance sheet entities could total $131bn.

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Paulson hedge fund buys into mortgage securities

By Henny Sender in New York

Published: November 17 2008 23:34 | Last updated: November 17 2008 23:34

John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who was called before Congress last week to discuss the big profits he made by foreseeing the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, has started to buy securities backed by residential mortgages.

Mr Paulson’s move marks the latest example of a famously bearish investor shifting gears to profit from depressed prices in the global credit markets.

US residential mortgage securities fell in value last week after Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, said that the federal government had decided against buying toxic assets as part of its $700bn troubled asset relief programme (Tarp).

John Paulson, who is not related to the Treasury secretary, has told his investors that he started buying troubled mortgage-backed securities at the end of last week, hoping to capitalise on price falls that followed the Treasury announcement.

Mr Paulson, who has $36bn under management, was scheduled to hold a dinner and wine-tasting at New York’s Metropolitan Club on Monday night so that he could brief his investors on his plans.

According to Alpha Magazine, Mr Paulson made $3.7bn in 2007, reflecting the success of his strategy – begun in 2006 – of betting on a collapse of the subprime mortgage market. At the end of the third quarter of this year, his funds were up 15-25 per cent. His funds also made profits in October, his investors say.

For several months Mr Paulson has been considering investing in distressed subprime mortgage securities, financial firms and debt used to back private equity deals.

He estimated there are $10,000bn in total in such assets.

He signalled a potential new direction on October 1 by launching his Paulson Recovery Fund, which will take equity stakes in financial institutions. He also has moved to start a real estate fund.

However, Mr Paulson has been careful to avoid moving into distressed markets too early. For example, he refused in April when approached to invest alongside TPG in Washington Mutual. The debt and equity of WaMu was wiped out when it was taken over by JPMorgan in September.

In a letter to investors at the end of the third quarter, Mr. Paulson said his strategy was “to reduce leverage, maintain market exposure and maintain short credit bias”. He said: “The majority of our gains came from short positions in the equities of declining financials and CDS [credit default swaps] on financials. Generally our short exposure has been reduced as many of the companies we were short have failed.”

Mr. Paulson’s plans come at a time when other leading investors, including Jeff Aronson at Centerbridge Partners and Bruce Karsh at Oaktree Capital, are wading into the market for discounted leveraged buyout loans.

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Fears over covert DNA database

By Stephen Fidler

Published: November 17 2008 23:30 | Last updated: November 17 2008 23:30

Public US documents confirm that information on suspected terrorists from Iraq and Afghanistan risks being lost due to delays at the database

Valuable intelligence on thousands of suspected terrorists risks being lost because of backlogs at a little-known US federal government database that processes DNA samples gathered in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The unfinished work at the database – part of a classified intelligence partnership of military, intelligence and law enforcement agencies – has been referred to in public documents but has not been openly discussed by US government officials.

The Department of Justice sought funding this year for the Federal Bureau of Investigation, one of the agencies taking part in the programme, to automate processing of DNA material.

The FBI can process only two samples every three days using manual methods, yet the database has been receiving 9,000 samples a year.

The programme would “likely lose valuable intelligence from the lag time required to analyse these samples”, said the 2009 funding request to Congress.

Steven Aftergood, director of the government secrecy project at the Federation of American Scientists, said the database was “truly shrouded in mystery”.

“Not only is the name of the database almost never cited, but the role of DNA collection in terrorist identification is not publicly discussed even where one would expect it,” he said.

One exception was a March 2007 report from the Defense Science Board, a panel of outside experts that advises the Pentagon, which said 17,000 samples had been handled by the database while 30,000 awaited processing.

In 2005, according to a separate Pentagon document, 7,000 samples were processed and 10,000 were “inbound” from Iraq and Afghanistan.

The searchable database has been identified by several names, including the Joint Federal Agencies Intelligence DNA Database.

It is operated in part by private contractors and is an offshoot of the Armed Forces DNA Identification Laboratory in Rockville, Maryland, that identifies remains of soldiers missing in action.

The Defense Science Board report said the idea for the covert repository and database of DNA samples for identifying and tracking terrorist subjects, which it dubbed “Black Helix”, first “surfaced” in February 2001 – a month after President George W. Bush took office and before the September 11 2001 attacks.

People who have followed the programme say information about the military’s DNA collection activities disappeared from the Pentagon website in 2003, when a legislative push by the Bush administration that included a proposal to create a DNA database for terror suspects failed.

That failure meant that the FBI could continue storing DNA data only from US adults convicted of crimes and not from suspects. Under US law that restriction would not apply to foreigners.

Some terrorism specialists have called for greater use of DNA in an effort to track terrorist associates.

In testimony to the House Intelligence Committee in April, Peter Bergen of the New America Foundation urged for the creation of an integrated US database, including DNA data, as part of an effort “to identify friends and/or family members who brought the suicide attackers into the jihad”.

The idea that DNA could be used to establish “guilt by association”, coupled with the lack of transparency about the way DNA is handled by the military, has the potential to alarm those concerned with the well-being of detainees.

In a 2005 article in the Lancet, Robin Coupland and colleagues from the Inter­national Committee of the Red Cross said best laboratory practice and protection of personal data were not high priorities for those building international DNA databases.

In cases where DNA was gathered from detainees, and others, they said that it was “far from clear what laws, if any, protect genetic data”. They also said people from whom DNA was being gathered were often very vulnerable.

When contacted by the Financial Times, Dr Coupland said: “Some detained people have expressed concerns to our officials about their DNA samples”.

In keeping with Red Cross practice, he refused to elaborate on where these detainees were or which government was detaining them.

The Department of Defense repeatedly refused to clarify the procedures and protocols applying to the collection, custody and exploitation of the samples and the database.

Lt Col Mark Wright, a Pentagon spokesman, said the issue was “fairly sensitive. We do use identification measures etc but everyone’s very reluctant [to talk about it] because of the way it’s used in an intelligence manner you run into the classified gamut.”

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Italian dash for oil sounds rural alarm

By Guy Dinmore

Published: November 17 2008 17:51 | Last updated: November 17 2008 17:51

Empty deserts conceal the oil wealth of the Middle East, and frozen wastelands cover Russia’s. Unfortunately for the inhabitants of Basilicata in southern Italy, Europe’s largest onshore oilfield lies beneath forests, farmland and ancient communities.

Wolves, deer and the occasional bear wander through mountain ranges designated as a national park, where clattering oil rigs rise incongruously through tree-tops.

Trenches carved through oak and beech take pipelines down to a complex in Viggiano where gas is separated and the oil piped a further 130km to a refinery. A sulphurous stench writhes up to medieval hilltop villages where shuttered windows and crumbling masonry testify to a population in flight. Not surprisingly, environmentalists and residents are alarmed by the plans of oil companies – Eni, Total, Shell and Exxon Mobil – to double production from this highly profitable field and supply some 10 per cent of Italy’s total oil needs within several years.

Activists campaigned for 15 hard years to establish the Val D’Agri area as a national park. The legislation finally came into effect last March, forbidding mineral extraction. In the meantime Eni, Italy’s part state-owned energy giant, had already built half a dozen wellheads inside the park and more outside.

Concerns were heightened this month when Stefania Prestigiacomo, environment minister and industrialist, rejected the regional government’s choice for park guardian and appointed her own commissioner.

Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right government is also preparing legislation that would strip regions like Basilicata of their veto power over infrastructure plans. The goal is to fix Italy’s “nimby” – not in my backyard – reputation among foreign investors.

“We can’t stay stuck for years, waiting for approval that might not come,” says Claudio Descalzi, president of Assomineraria, an association of oil and mining companies. Industry wants authorisation processes to be clear and brief, says Mr Descalzi, who is also Eni’s head of exploration and development.

The turning of the tide in favour of big industrial projects began when the Green party, whose members were key figures in the previous centre-left government and blamed for blocking many plans, was routed in parliamentary elections last April.

Local politicians mostly support the expansion plans. Critics say their sensitivities are dulled by a flow of royalties from Eni. While bringing income to a poor region, the money also fosters “clientelismo” – political patronage – and is not always well spent.

Despite promises of jobs and investment, the village of Grumento Nova has lost a quarter of its inhabitants. Locals blame the exodus on pollution from the nearby Viggiano complex and a shortage of work.

Pino Enrico Laveglia, the local doctor, is suing Eni because of what he believes is a significant increase in respiratory infections and tumours caused by pollution. “The arrival of these gentlemen brought an environmental disaster,” he says. “There used to be no fog here. Now there is a blue smog and it is not fairies from the woods.”

But he has no hope his lawsuit will succeed and says people are too submissive and divided by ancient hatreds to protest.

Local people tend to tell the same story – the young leave to find work; “rotten” mayors waste the royalties; and pollution erodes the mainstays of agriculture and tourism. Great expectations were raised when significant oil production began a decade ago, but not met. Few trust the pollution monitoring systems. Smiling grimly they say Basilicata has “sacrificed” itself for the rest of Italy, but their compatriots don’t even know it.

As a cash cow for the oil companies and governments, development seems inevitable.

Eni’s operating costs are less than $3 per barrel, and about $8 including development. Royalties are paid at a rate of seven per cent of market prices to the regional government, of which 15 per cent goes to the localities. Eni said by the end of 2007 it had paid $466m (€368m, £311m), indicating gross production worth $6.65bn.

Eni, working with Shell Italia, is producing about 75,000 barrels per day in Basilicata. This is set to increase to 104,000 b/d by 2010. A second phase, awaiting official approval, could add 30,000 b/d.

All new wells will be outside the national park and pollution is within European Union limits, Eni says. Wellheads are located underground, once exploratory drilling is complete.

Total, Shell and Exxon also have approval to drill for oil and build an oil centre, targeting production of 50,000 b/d by 2011.

Italy’s national oil consumption is slowly declining and reached 1.75m b/d in 2007. Academics suggest that by raising false expectations and failing to spell out the full impact, business and politicians fuelled a long-standing suspicion of authority among locals. The ensuing sense of regret and distrust is resistant to reason.

For example, epidemiologists say cancers could not have developed over just 10 years because of the oil industry. Sociologists point out that much of southern Italy is witnessing emigration.

Giovanni Figliuolo, a Basilicata university professor, says an intensive biodiversity study of Eni’s operations broadly concluded that there was a slight impact on immediate surroundings. He argues it is even possible that, with the right approach, the energy industry could have a net positive impact on Basilicata’s biodiversity.

Asked if the oil riches are a blessing or, as many say, a curse, Vito De Filippo, centre-left governor of Basilicata who has backed the oil expansion plans, replies: “To call it a curse is too much. Basilicata had to do it for the good of the country but the returns and economic development fell short of expectations.”

Meanwhile, a new threat to this rural idyll is emerging in the shape of a proposed nuclear waste dump needed to relaunch Italy’s nuclear industry. Rome’s intention to strip the regions of their political veto would facilitate that process.

“It would be an act of war,” Mr De Filippo says. “They would have to do it with arms.”

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Russia to raise import duties

By Alan Beattie in London

Published: November 17 2008 18:14 | Last updated: November 17 2008 18:14

Russia said on Monday that it would push ahead with sharp rises in import duties in the near future in spite of signing the Group of 20 communiqué that promised not to introduce protectionist measures for a year.

Dmitry Pankin, deputy finance minister, said Moscow would increase tariffs on imported cars, a move that had already been planned to protect Russian car producers. Russia has also announced a general review of trade agreements, including commitments made as part of its application to join the World Trade Organisation. The review may result in duties being increased and import quotas for sensitive products being cut.

Mr Pankin said there was no contradiction between Russia’s actions and the communiqué it signed as a member of the G20 leading economies in Washington on Saturday. The agreement was portrayed by the UK and US as a powerful statement against protectionism.

“The wording is sufficiently fluid . . . The formulation is careful,” Mr Pankin told reporters. “No one said that anyone should scrap existing barriers or go back on existing decisions. There were no calls for this.”

The US and UK governments did not return requests for comment. The European Commission said the news was not particularly troubling, as the duties would cover only a small part of trade.

But independent trade experts said Moscow’s actions revealed the flimsiness of the G20’s pledge to refrain from new trade protections in the next year. Fredrik Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, a free-trade Brussels think-tank, said: “I am not surprised at all. I don’t think the G20 was a meaningful exercise in trying to tie down its governments’ trade policies.”

Those present at the meeting said the communiqué would permit countries to impose so-called anti-dumping duties and other emergency blocks against imports. Such actions have increased rapidly in recent months as commodity prices have fallen, making it easier for companies to argue that they are being hit by dumped imports.

Mr Erixon said that such emergency actions, together with state aid to politically sensitive industries, were supplanting permanent import tariffs as the main tool of trade protectionism, and were not covered by the G20 statement.

Saturday’s G20 communiqué said: “We underscore the critical importance of rejecting protectionism and not turning inward in times of financial uncertainty. In this regard, within the next 12 months, we will refrain from raising new barriers to investment or to trade in goods and services.”

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Shifting away from export-led growth

Published: November 18 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 18 2008 02:00

It is official: Japan has followed Germany into recession, as defined by two quarters of negative growth. China's rate of expansion also looks set to slow more than previously expected. What do these countries have in common? All rely on exports to keep their economies going, while their own consumers are reluctant to spend.

But avoiding the sort of profligate spending of the US and UK has not saved Japan, Germany and China from credit bust fallout. Finding buyers for their exports is proving hard in a global economic downturn. To strengthen their economies, policymakers have to encourage their people to go shopping.

Shifting away from exports would not only address imbalances within these countries. Global imbalances, where countries with current account surpluses such as Japan, Germany and China helped finance the credit boom of deficit countries, could also at last be addressed.

In all three countries, governments hold the key. Fiscal policy has to be expanded but, owing to the vast differences between these economies, packages will differ.

Japan may be in the most difficult position. Monetary policy cannot offer much relief with interest rates at 0.3 per cent, and fiscal policy faces constraints with gross debt around 170 per cent of gross domestic product, the highest of any rich nation. Last month the government unveiled a $51bn fiscal stimulus package. That was a step in the right direction. But what is needed is to convince consumers that fiscal policy will be looser over the coming years. Now is not the time to raise taxes on consumption and trim healthcare and pension benefits.

The German government has more room to manoeuvre, with a projected budget surplus for this year. It has to seize the opportunity and cut taxes so that consumers, after years of stagnating wages and rising taxes, have more left to spend. The European Central Bank should also cut interest rates further. This would offer additional short-term relief, but would not help wean the economy off exports.

With low government debt, Beijing can afford a large fiscal stimulus. But the package announced last week fails where it is most needed. Chinese consumers will start spending only when they feel secure about the provision of education and health services by the state.

Different as Japan, Germany and China are, their authorities should adopt policies with a common aim: encouraging people to spend. That would support the economies during the downturn, and might also encourage longer-term domestic and global structural adjustment.

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US turns screw on UBS in offshore tax haven crackdown

By Haig Simonian

Published: November 14 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 14 2008 02:00

Raoul Weil should have been celebrating his 49th birthday yesterday. But instead of cele-brating with friends, the head of private banking for the world's biggest wealth manager found himself the piece in a much bigger game.

This week, Mr Weil, who has spent virtually his entire career at UBS and its predecessor, was indicted by a US Federal Grand Jury on the charge of conspiracy.

The move was the most stunning step in a US investigation into whether the Swiss group helped rich American clients evade tax. The inquiry, by the Department of Justice and the Internal Revenue Service, contends that UBS bankers in Geneva, Zurich and Lugano helped American clients evade tax in various ways, including, for the richest, complex shell companies to hide their identities.

The investigation has already involved the arrest of one mid-ranking former UBS banker, who has pleaded guilty, and the detention as a "material witness" earlier this year of Martin Liechti, the former head of offshore wealth management for North and South America. He has since returned to Switzerland.

The American authorities have diligently gathered evidence, as revealed in this week's 11-page indictment and an earlier 110-page report by a special Senate investigating committee.

But the action against Mr Weil, who has stepped down and is replaced for the moment by Marten Hoekstra, his US-based deputy, represents a major escalation.

This week's indictment also refers to unspecified other "co-conspirators . . . at the highest levels of management". For members of the UBS former offshore US team, who wish to remain anonymous, that suggests the US authorities are poised to strike higher up the echelons.

UBS has been left struggling. Stricken by almost $48bn of writedowns in the credit crisis, massive losses and a plummeting share price, the bank has been seriously weakened. Although its offshore business with US clients only accounted for about 2 per cent of private banking assets, UBS can hardly afford further damage to its reputation.

But many observers believe the mounting US pressure is part of a wider campaign aimed at Switzerland itself. Carl Levin, the US senator whose permanent sub-committee on investigations has been prominent in US attempts to crack down on tax havens, made that clear in remarks after Mr Weil's indictment.

"Today's indictment. . . sends an overdue message that the United States will no longer tolerate tax haven banks helping US clients hide money from the IRS," Mr Levin said.

The US authorities want Switzerland to co-operate under the judicial assistance provisions of the double taxation treaties between the countries and provide client names. But progress has been slower than the US would like. For the Swiss, no client names can be provided unless the US authorities can prove such customers committed tax fraud - a crime which in Switzerland justifies the lifting of bank secrecy. But tax evasion is only a civil office, and does not qualify for the same treatment.

The US authorities appear to be increasingly frustrated that no names have been supplied, amid suggestions of Swiss stonewalling. Bern replies it is simply going by the book. UBS, meanwhile, is stuck in the middle.

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Mexico, Indonesia sign oil cooperation deal

AFP

Mexican President Felipe Calderon and his Indonesian counterpart Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono announced an oil cooperation agreement between their state-run oil companies, after a meeting Monday.

The agreement established cooperation in "development, scientific and technological investigation, and exploration and drilling" between Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and Pertamina, Indonesia's oil company, said Calderon.

Pemex is the 11th largest national oil company in the world, while Indonesia is a member of OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Yudhoyono, who arrived here from Washington after attending the Group of 20 economic meeting in Washington over the weekend, said he was also seeking to increase economic ties between the two countries.

Calderon, who also attended the G20 crisis talks, said another cooperation agreement in agriculture, education and diplomatic training had also been signed with the visiting president.

The two leaders will also travel to Lima for next weekend's summit of the 21-nation Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) bloc.

Yudhoyono will first visit Brazil for three days beginning Tuesday, when he will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and sign a strategic partnership with South America's largest nation.

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Barclays offers shareholders slice of capital hike

Reuters

Bank Barclays moved to quell shareholder anger on Tuesday, offering them a slice of a 5.8 billion pound capital injection by Middle Eastern investors.

Barclays said Qatar Holding LLC and Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan would each make up to 250 million pounds of reserve capital instruments available to existing shareholders in the bank in a bookbuilding process.

The bank said no bonuses would be paid to executive directors for 2008 and confirmed an earlier Reuters report that all board members would offer themselves for re-election at the company's annual general meeting in April 2009.

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三菱ＵＦＪ、増資年内に完了へ　国内と海外で3000億円ずつ

　三菱ＵＦＪフィナンシャル・グループは18日、年内に約6000億円の公募増資を国内外で実施する方針を固めた。12月中旬に払い込みを完了する意向で、今週実施した3900億円の優先株発行と合わせて約1兆円の増資を早期に実現する。12月末時点で10％台の自己資本比率を確保したい考え。同日午後にも発表する。

　三菱ＵＦＪは10月下旬に普通株と優先株の発行を組み合わせた増資計画を発表。普通株は6000億円を上限に、来年11月までいつでも発行できる形にしていた。(16:01)

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環境税、09年度から導入を　環境省が与党に要望方針

　環境省は、二酸化炭素（ＣＯ2）の排出量に応じて石油や石炭などの化石燃料に課税する環境税を2009年度から導入するよう、与党の税制調査会に提案する方針を固めた。税収は低燃費自動車の購入や住宅の省エネ改修を支援する減税財源に振り向け、全体として増税にならない仕組みにする。地球温暖化防止の観点からガソリン税などの暫定税率の維持も求める。

　19日に開かれる自民党の環境部会で、09年度の税制改正に向けた提案を示す。(16:01)

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大証、ジャスダック買収を正式決定

　大阪証券取引所は18日、新興市場ジャスダック証券取引所の買収を決定したと正式に発表した。１９日に１株7000円でＴＯＢ（株式公開買い付け）を開始し、年内にも子会社化する。ジャスダック株式の72.6％を保有する日本証券業協会はＴＯＢに応じ50％超を売却することを決定しており、ＴＯＢが成立するのは確実。ジャスダックもＴＯＢへの賛同を表明した。大証は売買システムの一本化によるコスト削減などを進め、２年後をメドに大証傘下の新興市場ヘラクレスとジャスダックを統合する。(13:58)

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化学物質管理、対象を拡大　政府

　政府は18日、化学物質排出把握管理促進法（化管法）に基づく政令の改正を閣議決定した。環境への影響が大きい有害な化学物質の排出状況を広く管理するため、対象物質を従来の354種から462種に広げる。2010年度から有害物質の排出状況の把握を始める。(13:01)

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自社株取得のインサイダー規制、適用明確化へ　金融相表明

　中川昭一財務・金融担当相は18日の閣議後の記者会見で、自社株取得に関するインサイダー規制に関し、上場企業が信託や投資一任契約を利用して自社株を取得した場合に規制を適用するかどうかを明確にする考えを示した。金融庁と証券取引等監視委員会が同日中に質疑応答形式での文書を公表する。

　中川金融相は狙いを「一定のルールの下でぜひ自社株を取得していただきたい趣旨」と説明した。(13:01)

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後期高齢者医療保険料、口座振替と選択に　厚労省、来春から

　厚生労働省は17日、75歳以上を対象とした後期高齢者制度の保険料の徴収方法について、年金からの天引きとなっている現在の方式を改め、すべての高齢者が年金天引きと口座振替を選択できるようにする方針を固めた。来年4月から実施する。

　同制度では年金所得が18万円以上の高齢者は原則として年金からの天引きが強制されていた。しかし年金天引きへの反発が強いことから、政府・与党は7月に政令を改正し、10月から(1)国民健康保険の保険料を過去2年間確実に納付していた人(2)年金収入が180万円未満で世帯主などの連帯納付義務者がいる人――については口座振替による納付が可能とした。(07:00)

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10月の交易条件指数、円高などで改善幅最大

　原油価格の下落や円高で、製造業の仕入れコストが低下している。日銀の17日の発表によると、仕入れ価格をどれだけ製品価格に転嫁できたかを示す10月の交易条件指数（2000年＝100）は84.2となり、前月より2ポイント上昇。上昇幅は比較可能な1990年以降の最大で、仕入れ価格の下落が企業収益には追い風となっているかたちだ。

　交易条件指数は製造業のコスト構造を示すもので、製品価格にあたる「産出物価指数」を原材料コストにあたる「投入物価指数」で割って計算する。この指数が低ければ仕入れコストを価格転嫁できず収益環境が悪化していることになる。(07:00)

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格付け会社監督へ法案　金融庁長官「通常国会に」

　金融庁は金融サミットが世界的な規制強化の方針を打ち出したのを受け、金融規制の本格的な検討に乗り出す。焦点の一つとなった格付け会社については、佐藤隆文長官が17日の記者会見で「登録制を導入するために必要な法案を来年の通常国会に提出したい」と表明。検査・監督の対象とする方針だ。金融派生商品や、ヘッジファンドの規制のあり方も先行きの大きな焦点となる。

　金融サミットの声明を具体化するための「行動計画」には中期的な措置として、格付け会社の登録制の導入を盛り込んだ。すでに米国では導入済みで、欧州連合（ＥＵ）も同様の方針を決めている。金融庁は格付け会社に対しては証券会社と同様に登録制を導入したうえで、検査・監督の対象とする。関係法案が成立すれば、来年度にも実施に移す。(07:00)

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国民年金保険料、軽減対象者が３倍に増加も　厚労省推計

　自営業者らが加入する国民年金で保険料支払いの免除・猶予制度の対象となる人は、実際の約3倍に膨らむ可能性があることが厚生労働省の推計で明らかになった。免除や猶予は本人の申請に基づいて実施しているため、こうした差が生まれているもようだ。免除などを使わずに結局保険料を払いきれない人が増えれば、将来的に無年金者や低年金者が相次ぐ恐れもある。

　2007年度に実際に免除や猶予の手続きを利用したのは約500万人。ところが同省が所得状況に応じて機械的に分類したところ、対象者は約1500万人に膨らむことがわかった。これは同年金の加入者の8割にあたる。(07:00)

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ＷＴＯ、12月に閣僚会合　貿易自由化で景気下支え

　【ジュネーブ＝藤田剛】世界貿易機関（ＷＴＯ）は多角的通商交渉（ドーハ・ラウンド）の大筋合意を目指し、12月に閣僚会合を開く方向で調整に入った。閣僚会合の開催は7月以来、5カ月ぶり。米国発の金融危機で世界経済が急速に悪化するなか、貿易自由化を進めることで景気を下支えするのが狙いだ。もっとも事務レベルでの調整は難航しており、閣僚会合で交渉が進展するかは不透明だ。

　ＷＴＯのラミー事務局長は17日朝、日米欧や新興国の一部を本部ジュネーブに集めて大使級会合を開き、閣僚会合の開催を念頭に準備を進めることで一致した。日程は12月18日に始まる一般理事会の前となる見通しだ。(07:00)

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小規模企業の業況、10月は過去最低を更新　景気後退や円高で

　全国商工会連合会（東京・港）がまとめた10月の「小規模企業景気動向調査」によると、産業全体の業況ＤＩ（「好転」と回答した割合から「悪化」を引いた値）は前月よりも4.8ポイント悪化、マイナス72.7となり、7月に記録した過去最低（マイナス72.5）を更新した。悪化は3カ月ぶり。景気後退で需要が減少したうえ、円高による輸出産業の苦戦が響いた。

　売上額ＤＩは6.2ポイント低下のマイナス60.6。株安で消費マインドが冷え込んだことなどが響いた。資金繰りＤＩも5.1ポイント低下のマイナス66.1。金融不安を受けて銀行が貸し出し態度を厳格化させていることが影響した。

　業種別では、全4業種で前月よりも景況感が悪化した。

　調査は10月末に全国約300商工会の経営指導員にアンケート方式で実施した。(16:53)

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10月の百貨店売上高6.8％減、８カ月連続でマイナス

　日本百貨店協会が18日まとめた10月の全国百貨店売上高（既存店ベース）は前年同月比6.8％減の5845億円だった。前年実績を下回るのは8カ月連続。プロ野球の優勝セールなどプラス要因もあったが、米国発の金融危機の影響で消費が冷え込み、衣料品、ハンドバッグや靴などの身の回り品、雑貨などが振るわなかった。

　気温が高めに推移したことも打撃となり、秋冬商品を並べた衣料品は9.6％の減少。美術・宝飾品など高額商品も2ケタの減少となった。一方、食料品は1.6％増加した。

　地域別では主要10都市すべてで前年の実績を下回った。仙台は9.1％減と落ち込みが最も大きく、神戸（8.5％減）、東京（8.4％減）が続いた。(16:09)

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アステラス、インド参入　医薬品販売子会社を設立

　アステラス製薬は18日、インドに医薬品の販売子会社を14日付で設立し現地市場に参入したと発表した。移植・免疫、泌尿器分野などアステラスが強みを持つ医薬品を中心に2009年度から販売を始める。高い経済成長が見込まれるインドで事業基盤を築く。

　新会社「アステラス　ファーマ　インディア」の資本金は1億6000万ルピー（約3億2000万円）で、全額をアステラスが出資した。本社はムンバイ市。売上高などの目標は公表していない。インドの医薬品市場は現在約6000億円程度で、アジアでは日本、中国、韓国に次ぐ規模という。同社は07年10 月に駐在員事務所を開き、インド参入を検討していた。(13:01)

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ＩＮＡＸ、ベトナムに水栓金具の製造・販売会社

　ＩＮＡＸは18日、ベトナム中部のクアンナム省に水栓金具の製造・販売子会社を設立したと発表した。同社は既に別の子会社を通じて外壁タイルや衛生陶器の生産をベトナムで手掛けており、取扱品目を広げて売り上げ拡大を狙う。

　新会社「ＩＮＡＸ　ベトナム　プラミング　フィクスチャーズ」の資本金は1800万ドル（約17億2800万円）で、全額をＩＮＡＸが出資した。新工場を2009年12月に稼働させ、主に洗面用、浴室用の水栓金具を生産、ベトナムや周辺諸国に販売する。14年に年産115万個を計画する。(12:30)

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紀伊国屋書店が英語論文の校閲サービス、印社日本法人と提携

　紀伊国屋書店は学術論文の校閲サービスを手掛ける世界大手でインドに本社を置くカクタス・グループの日本法人、カクタス・ジャパン（東京・中央）と提携し、法人の研究者向けに英語論文の校閲サービスの提供を始めた。大学や研究機関の研究者らが海外の雑誌に論文を投稿する際、英語1単語あたり10―16円で校閲を受託する。

　利用者は料金を紀伊国屋に支払う。同社がこの一部を手数料として受け取ったのち、残りをカクタスが受け取る。カクタスにとっては法人向けの販路を拡大でき、紀伊国屋にとっては大学などに提供するサービスを拡充できるメリットがある。(12:01)

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細い糸で視界スッキリの網戸　三協立山アルミ

　三協立山アルミは網戸の糸を細くして外の景色を見やすくした「スッキリ網戸」を12月1日から順次発売する。糸の素材を従来のポリプロピレンからポリエステルに換えて直径を0.13ミリメートルと半分以下にした。この結果、糸が覆わない面積の割合が従来品の59％から68％に広がり、スッキリとした視界を確保できるようにしたとしている。

　細い糸にする一方で、1平方インチ（2.54センチ）あたりに使う糸の本数を約2倍の計70本に増やした。マス目の大きさは1辺が0.6ミリで従来の1.0ミリよりも細密になり、小さな虫の進入も防げるようにした。

　価格は、代表的な横方向へのスライド式で大きさが幅85.5センチ、高さ203センチのタイプで従来品より約5割高い2万2700円。住宅用は12月1日の発売で年1万セットを、ビル用は2009年1月5日の発売で同3000セットの販売を目標とする。(11:01)

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長崎魚市、北京・広州に販売拠点　鮮魚輸出、市場開拓を加速

　水産物卸会社の長崎魚市（長崎市）は、中国の北京市と広州市に日本産鮮魚の販売拠点を開設する。同社はすでに上海市に常設店舗を持ち、中国国内の日本料理店など約100カ所に鮮魚を販売している。接待需要などで高級品志向が強い首都と、南部の中心地に新たな拠点を確保して、中国市場の開拓を加速する。

　日本企業が両市に鮮魚を本格輸出するのは初めてという。上海長申魚市貿易（上海市）と運営や物流面で提携。北京市には、来年早々にも卸売り・配送機能と小売店を兼ねた事業所を開く。アジやイカなどを長崎、福岡空港から上海経由で空輸。手始めに年内に北京市内の百貨店、新光天地向けに販売をスタートし、魚の扱い方も指導する。(10:30)

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ネット通販で買う物、「書籍」がトップ　通販協会

　日本通信販売協会（東京・中央）はインターネット通信販売の利用者を対象にしたアンケート調査の結果をまとめた。それによると2008年に入ってパソコンを通じたネット通販で購入した商品は「書籍・雑誌」が49.4％で最も多かった。2番目は「食料品・飲料（酒類を除く）」の37.1％で、「生活雑貨・小物類」が30.5％だった。

　ネット通販の利用頻度は「月1回程度」が33.0％で最も多く、「月に2―3回程度」が28.4％、「年に数回以下」が23.9％で続いた。月の平均利用金額は5000円未満が30.2％、5000円以上1万円未満が33.6％、1万円以上3万円未満が27.7％、それ以上が8.5％だった。

　調査はインターネットを通じ、10月下旬に実施。首都圏に住む20―59歳の男女1080人から回答を得た。(10:06)

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ローソンが“移動店舗”　トラック改造、まず大阪で

　ローソンは移動販売車を使った営業に乗り出す。まず18日から大阪府枚方市の工業団地内に商品を積み込んだトラックを送り、平日の日中限定で営業する。出店が難しい地域での新たな販売手法として確立させることを狙う。

　移動販売車は1トントラックを改造し、冷蔵庫やフライヤーなどの店内調理機器を設置。弁当類やおにぎり、サンドイッチ、飲料などを取り扱う。品目数は通常の店舗の50分の1の50品目に絞り込む。枚方市内に送る1号車は平日の午前11時から午後2時までの限定営業とする。(07:00)

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英発祥のレコード店「ヴァージン」姿消す

　カルチュア・コンビニエンス・クラブ（ＣＣＣ）グループは、運営するＣＤ販売店「ヴァージンメガストア」全15店を来年1月末までにＴＳＵＴＡＹＡに改装する。英国を発祥とするヴァージンは1990年代に「タワーレコード」「ＨＭＶ」と並ぶ外資系大型レコード店として話題を集めたが、日本上陸から19年で姿を消す。

　ＣＣＣが英ヴァージングループと結んでいた店舗商号に関するライセンス契約の期間が満了し、更新も見合わせた。ＣＣＣグループで店舗を運営するヴァージン・メガストアーズ・ジャパン（東京・渋谷）は、ＣＣＣ子会社のツタヤストアーズ　ホールディングス（同）が吸収合併する方針。(07:00)

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スーパー各社、配送ケースを共通化　人件費や物流費削減

　ライフコーポレーションやイズミヤなどの大手・中堅スーパーは食品の配送に使うプラスチック製配送ケースの共通化に乗り出す。まず豆腐やデザート類など冷蔵食品のケースを対象に来年4月から近畿地区で開始。段ボールなどの資材使用量を減らすほか、商品の仕分け作業を簡単にして人件費や物流費などの削減を進める。二酸化炭素（ＣＯ2）の排出量削減にもつながるため、イトーヨーカ堂なども参加を検討している。

　参加するのはライフとイズミヤ、オークワ、関西スーパーマーケットのスーパー4社と低価格コンビニエンスストアの九九プラス。メーカー・卸から店舗へ配送する際に使う「クレート」と呼ばれるプラスチック製配送ケースを共通化する。まず豆腐や練り物、デザートなどを運ぶ計5種類の共通クレートを開発し、近畿地区の350店超の配送網で実施する。(07:00)

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都税、1000億円超減収も　08年度、企業業績下振れ

　東京都の2008年度の税収が当初予算（5兆5000億円）に比べて1000億円を超える減収になる公算が大きくなってきた。9月末までの半年間の税収は前年同期比で約400億円減った。都は現時点では年間700億円程度の減収になると試算するが、企業が相次いで今年度の業績予想を下方修正しており税収は一段と減りそう。09年度はさらに厳しくなりそうだ。

　都によると、9月末の税収は07年9月末に比べて個人都民税が約300億円増えたが、法人2税（法人事業税と法人住民税）が約700億円減った。08年度上半期（4―9月期）の都内企業の業績を勘案すると、年間では予算比で700億円の減収になると試算した。

　ただ、10月以降の円高の影響で輸出企業を中心に収益が下振れする可能性が高い。加えて、株安などの影響で個人消費も低迷している。金融市場の混乱が企業の設備投資意欲を減退させている面もあり、法人関連税収が一段と下振れすれば、1000億円超の減収になるとの見方も庁内にはある。

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労働基準法改正案、衆院を通過

　衆院厚生労働委員会は18日、有給休暇を1日単位でなく時間単位で取得できる内容を柱とする労働基準法改正案を採決、可決した。同時に50％以上の賃金割増率を義務づける残業時間を「月80時間超」から「月60時間超」とする修正案を可決した。午後に衆院を通過した。(14:52)

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国籍法改正案などが衆院通過

　日本人男性と外国人女性の間に生まれ、父親が出生後に認知した子に両親が結婚していなくても日本国籍の取得を認める国籍法改正案が18日午後の衆院本会議で可決、参院に送付される。両親の結婚を国籍取得の条件とする国籍法の規定を違憲とした最高裁判決を受けた改正。今国会で成立する見通しだ。

　月60時間超の残業について賃金割増率を50％以上に引き上げる労働基準法改正案も同日の衆院本会議で可決、参院に送付される。(14:52)

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警視庁警視が飲酒運転　茨城で逮捕、当て逃げの疑いも

　茨城県警は同県稲敷市で酒に酔って車を運転したとして、17日夜、警視庁総務部施設課管理官の警視、日高幸二容疑者（50）＝同県龍ケ崎市小通幸谷町＝を道路交通法違反（酒酔い運転）の現行犯で逮捕した。接触事故も起こしており、茨城県警は当て逃げの疑いもあるとみて調べている。

　警視庁によると、日高容疑者は同庁交通総務課や旧都市交通対策課（現駐車対策課）、築地署交通課長などを務め交通捜査に通じていた。事件当日は休みで、同庁施設課の同僚の有志十数人と茨城県稲敷市内でキャンプをしていて酒を飲んでいた。泊まりがけの予定だったが、同容疑者は家庭の事情を理由に帰宅する途中だったという。

　調べによると、日高容疑者は17日午後7時20分ごろ、稲敷市の県道で酒に酔った状態で車を運転した疑い。同容疑者は逮捕前に、交差点を左折中だった男性公務員（53）の車を追い越そうとして接触事故を起こし、そのまま逃走した疑いも持たれている。

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塩谷文科相「国歌で起立は常識」　氏名収集巡る提訴に

　神奈川県教育委員会が県立高校の入学式などで国歌斉唱時に起立しなかった教職員の氏名を収集したことを巡り、教職員らが県を提訴したことについて、塩谷立文部科学相は18日の閣議後の記者会見で「どの国の国歌であれ、斉唱時に起立するのは常識ではないか」と述べた。また「（不起立教員の）リスト作成は一般論としてはあり得ること」と指摘。「斉唱時に起立しない状況が広範囲にあるとすれば、国として実態を把握し、対応を考える必要がある」と語った。 (14:32)

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元厚生次官夫妻刺され死亡　さいたまの自宅、殺人の疑い

　18日午前10時20分ごろ、さいたま市南区別所の元厚生事務次官、山口剛彦さん（66）方の玄関で、男女2人が胸から血を流して死亡しているのを近所の住民が見つけ、110番した。山口さんと妻、美知子さん（61）とみられ、胸に刃物で刺されたような傷があることから、埼玉県警は殺人事件の可能性があるとみて捜査を始めた。

　調べによると、玄関のドア付近に血が流れていたため、近所の住民が不審に思い、ドアを開けたところ、2人が普段着姿であおむけに倒れていたという。玄関は無施錠だった。現場で凶器は見つかっていないという。

　山口さんは東大卒業後の1965年、旧厚生省に入省。主に年金畑を歩み、81年に年金課長に就任。92年には年金局長に。厚生年金の支給開始年齢を65 歳に引き上げた94年の年金改正を主導した。その後、官房長、保険局長を歴任。同局長時代には医療費の自己負担を2割とする制度改革にもかかわった。汚職事件で前任の岡光序治元次官が逮捕、起訴されたことを受けて事務次官に就任。混乱の収拾にあたった。(13:27)

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殺人：「年金、プロ中のプロ」…山口元次官

　元厚生官僚トップの身に何が起こったのか。さいたま市の自宅で１８日朝、殺害されたとみられる元厚生事務次官、山口剛彦さん（６６）は現職時代、「年金のスペシャリスト」として知られた有能官僚だった。一方、「歯に衣（きぬ）着せぬ物言い」で知られた。突然の出来事に関係者や近所の人たちも驚きを隠せない様子だった。

　山口さんは６５年に旧厚生省に入省し、年金局長、官房長、保険局長を歴任。９６年１１月、社会福祉法人グループを巡る贈収賄疑惑が発覚して辞職した岡光序治（のぶはる）次官の後任として事務次官に就いた。９９年８月に退職後も００年１月まで顧問を務めた。

　山口さんは、薬害エイズ事件で旧厚生省が揺れていた９６年当時、官房長を務めた。同省の元幹部の一人は「歯に衣着せぬ物言いのため、誤解されることも多く、山口元次官を嫌う政治家らは『山口だけは事務次官にするな』といつも言っていた。だが、岡光元次官の汚職事件のおかげでトップに上り詰めた」と話す。

　大物元次官の悲報に、厚生労働省は重苦しい雰囲気に包まれた。山口さんをよく知るキャリア官僚は「岡光元次官の不祥事の後に次官になり、省の信頼回復のために頑張っていた姿が印象的だった。年金問題についてはプロ中のプロだった。とにかく驚いている」と悲痛な表情で語った。

　山口さんが年金課長だった時代に２年間課長補佐を務め、ともに年金改革に取り組んだ浅野史郎前宮城県知事は「有能で性格も温かくひょうひょうとした方。私が女だったらほれちゃうような人だった。事件を聞いて、びっくりしてがっくりした」と驚いていた。

　山口さんが旧厚生省退庁後、今年３月まで約８年間理事長などを務めていた独立行政法人福祉医療機構（東京都港区）では、一報が流れた直後から職員らが情報収集や報道対応などに追われた。
　◇「よく夫婦で散歩」近所の住民

　山口元次官の隣家に住み、妻美知子さん（６１）と仲が良かったという女性（５９）によると、美知子さんは用心深い人で、門扉などのかぎはきちんとかけていた。だが、美知子さんは「かけるのが面倒だ」と話していたという。女性は「美知子さんとは、一緒に書道クラブや小旅行をするクラブにも所属していた。１２月１日も、バス旅行する約束をしていた。だれかとケンカする人ではないし、トラブルも聞いたことがない。夫婦仲も良く、２人でよく出掛けていた。びっくりした。信じられない」と表情を曇らせた。

　近所の住民もショックを隠せない。無職男性（６８）は「夫婦で散歩しているのをよく見かけた。だんなさんは品がよく、奥さんはガーデニングが好きで、玄関先でよく花の世話をしていた。この辺は穏やかな場所なので、驚いています」と話した。別の年配女性は「テレビニュースで知り、びっくりした。（夫婦は）お二人とも温厚で優しい方でした。本当に残念です」。別の女性は「奥さんはお茶や書道などの習い事に励む多才で上品な方だったのに。残念です」と声を落とした。

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元厚生事務次官夫妻殺される…あの汚職次官の後任

胸刺され玄関で倒れ

　１８日午前１０時１５分ごろ、さいたま市南区別所、元厚生事務次官、山口剛彦さん（６６）方玄関で、山口さんと妻（６１）が胸から血を流して死亡しているのを近所の人が発見し、１１０番した。埼玉県警捜査１課と浦和署は殺人事件とみて捜査を始めた。

　調べによると、夫妻の胸には刃物で刺されたようなあとがあった。凶器は見つかっていない。近所の男性が、玄関から屋外に血が流れているのに気が付き、夫妻を発見した。鍵はかかっていなかったという。

　現場は埼玉県庁から南へ約１キロの住宅街。

　山口さんは１９６５年に東大法学部を卒業後、厚生省（当時）に入省。汚職事件で辞職した岡光序治元事務次官の後を受け、９６年１１月、事務次官に就任。９９年８月に退任するまで、臓器移植法や介護保険法の成立に尽力した。

　就任当時、厚生省は社会的に激しい批判を浴びていた時期。山口さんは職員約１０００人を庁内の講堂に集め、「肩身の狭い思いをさせて本当にすまない。失われた信頼を取り戻すため、綱紀粛正に取り組みたい」と就任の決意を語った。就任の記者会見でも「厚生省全体が新しく生まれ変わるつもりで取り組みたい」と語っていた。

　２００１年２月には旧社会福祉・医療事業団（現・独立行政法人福祉医療機構）の理事長に就任、今年３月に辞職した。

ZAKZAK 2008/11/18

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派遣女性「解雇は違法」とパナソニック電工を提訴

　派遣契約と異なる業務に従事させられ、実態的には派遣先の会社の社員として17年余り働いた後、一方的な解雇となったのは労働者派遣法などに違反しているとして、福島県郡山市の女性（53）が17日までに、派遣先の「パナソニック電工」（大阪府門真市）への地位確認などを求め、福島地裁郡山支部に提訴した。

　訴状などによると、女性は1991年4月、電工が100％出資する派遣会社と事務用機械操作の名目で派遣契約を結んだが、派遣先となった電工では郡山市のショールームで展示品の案内に従事させられ、今年9月に合理的な理由がなく解雇された。

　女性側は、99年の労働者派遣法の改正で派遣可能職種が原則自由化されるまで、展示品の案内などは派遣職種として認められていなかった、ともして「派遣契約は無効で、電工社員とみなされるべき雇用実態だった」と主張している。

　パナソニック電工は「訴状を見ていないのでコメントできない」としている。〔共同〕(07:00)

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地下水大丈夫?メーカー、水質「厳密に」　伊藤ハム、シアン化物問題

　伊藤ハム東京工場（千葉県柏市）が基準を超えるシアン化物を含む井戸水を加工食品に使っていた問題は、ソーセージなど約330万袋を同社が自主回収する事態に発展した。第三者でつくる委員会が調査を急いでいるが、原因ははっきりしない。国内には地下水を食品や飲料の生産に使う工場が多く、同じような問題が再び起こらないか、警戒している。

　東京のベッドタウン、柏市の住宅街に近い伊藤ハム東京工場。今月1日の操業停止から半月以上たった現在も再開のメドは立っていない。従業員は回収した商品の処理作業に追われる毎日だ。

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受刑者、ごみ置き場に刑務官が閉じ込め　横浜刑務所は公表せず

　横浜刑務所で2005年、男性受刑者（当時）を刑務所内のごみ置き場に閉じ込めたなどとして、30代の男性刑務官が厳重注意処分を受けていたことが17 日、分かった。受刑者にけがはなく、刑務官はその後、退職したという。同刑務所は「公表基準に当たらない」として、事実関係を公表していなかった。

　同刑務所の調査に対し、刑務官は「受刑者をからかった。ふざけた」などと話し、「自覚を欠き、反省している」などと説明したという。

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速報！！　最新版「ミシュラン」三つ星・二つ星リスト

昇格９軒、新規６軒

　世界一の権威を誇るレストランガイド、ミシュランガイドの東京版が日本に上陸してから１年。その最新版となる「ミシュランガイド東京２００９」が発売される２１日に先駆け、１８日午後、新たな星付きレストランが発表された。注目の三つ星は昨年の二つ星だった日本料理店１軒が昇格し、全部で９軒となった。０９年版には全部で１７３軒の星付きレストランが掲載され、今年も美食の都、東京には世界で最もたくさんの星が輝いた。

　ミシュランガイドの総責任者ジャン＝リュック・ナレ氏は「東京の空に（総数）２２７の星が輝くことになりました。三つ星は世界ベスト７０に入ったことになります」と語った。さらに星を取った店の数を読み上げると、「昨年は初日で９万部、５週間で３０万部を売り上げました。今年も昨年同様、みなさんに気に入っていただけるよう祈っております」と続けた。

　０９年版で東京の料理店の頂点に立ったのは三つ星が９軒、二つ星は２５軒から３６軒に大幅に増え、一つ星は１１７軒から１２８軒に。東京中心部の８区のレストランを調査した０８年版から対象エリアを拡大し、都心の１３区を調査したという。

　新たに三つ星に加わったのは二つ星から繰り上がった和食の「石かわ」（新宿区神楽坂）。ナレ氏は「石かわ」について、「ぜひ、ご自身でレストランへ行ってください。昨年より格段に料理の質が上がったと思う」と話した。

　三つ星からの降格はなく、二つ星から圏外に去ったのは、「つきじ植むら」（日本料理）、「トゥエンティ　ワン」（フランス料理）２軒。今回は新たに４０軒が星を獲得し、１７軒が陥落した。

　昨年の発売以来、ミシュラン効果は絶大で、掲載された店には予約が殺到するなど社会現象になった。既存のグルメガイドはミシュランの発売を意識して発売を早めるなど東京のグルメガイド戦争もこの秋、一気に過熱している。

　価格も昨年より１００円アップの２４１０円。不況の中、目標部数３０万部を目標に掲げたナレ氏は「不況の時こそ店選びは慎重になる。そういう時こそこのガイドが役に立つはず」とあくまで強気の姿勢を崩さなかった。

ZAKZAK 2008/11/18

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西川口、昔はフーゾク…今はフードＢ級グルメへ大転換

王決定戦開催へ

　「安価で気軽なウラ風俗」から「安価で気軽なＢ級グルメ」へ－。かつて、本番ＯＫの「西川口流」「ＮＫ流」と、全国裏風俗のメッカとして君臨したＪＲ西川口駅周辺（埼玉）が、Ｂ級グルメタウンへ大転換を図っている。２００６年以降、２００以上の違法風俗店、約２０００人の従業員の摘発と引き換えに抜群の“集客力”も失った西川口が、復活に挑んでいる。

　「駅前はネオンがケバケバしく、たちまち客引きの男に行く手を阻まれた。案内所や情報喫茶も多く、ボックス型のピンサロ形式が主流。薄暗い店内のソファに座ると女の子がやってきて、全裸の後“口技”、そして座位でまたがってきた」

　一昨年まで西川口に通った会社員（３５）が、当時を振り返る。

　料金は４０分８０００円程度で写真指名付き。初入店の際は女の子が「西川口流知ってるよね」と声をかける安さと手軽さがウケ、一帯は午前中から大繁盛。性欲を満たした働き盛りの男の腹を満たすべく、安くてうまくてボリューム満点のＢ級グルメ店も立ち並んだ。

　川口商工会議所の中山信行課長（５５）は「川口オートや戸田競艇帰りのお客も多かった。土地所有者はビルオーナーに転じ、違法店から坪あたり４－５万円の賃料を安定確保。街全体が風俗に依存していた」と往時を振り返る。

　０６年、県警はビルオーナーを一斉に指導、摘発し、合法のソープランドなど約２０店を除き違法風俗店は壊滅。Ｂ級グルメ店も徐々にシャッターを下ろしはじめ、街全体が急速にさびれていった。

　その状況に腰を上げたのが埼玉県。既存店を生かした「Ｂ級グルメタウンのまちづくり」を目指して活動を始めた「西川口西口再生会議」（斉藤平八会長）による「第３回埼玉Ｂ級ご当地グルメ王決定戦」の開催を受け入れた。今月２４日、異例の中央通りを歩行者天国にして開催される。

　県観光振興課の山下貴宏氏は、西川口での開催理由についてこう話す。

　「県内全市町村にヒアリングしましたが、集客目的だけならもっと適した場所がありました。しかし、今回はＢ級グルメに対する熱意とこれまでの経緯をふまえ、何が何でも『西川口』でなくてはならなかったのです」

　選手権は２１のグルメが出店し、１グルメ１００－２００円で楽しめる。中山課長は「第１回は開催地に隣接した深谷市の『煮ぼうとう』、第２回は開催したさいたま市の『豆腐ラーメン』が優勝している。今回、川口市が初出店する『キューポラ定食』が負けるようでは、西川口のＢ級グルメ再起など絶対に不可能」と意気込んでいる。

ZAKZAK 2008/11/18

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対馬だけじゃない！露中土地買い標的は「横須賀基地」

“安全保障上の危機”所有者が防衛大臣に連絡

　神奈川県横須賀市にある海上自衛隊基地や米軍基地が見渡せる高台の土地を、中国やロシアの関係者が購入しようとしていることが１８日、分かった。外国関係者の思惑は不明。国境の島・対馬（長崎県）の自衛隊基地周辺の土地が韓国資本に続々と買収されていることが安全保障上の問題となっているが、同様の危機が全国規模で広がっている可能性がある。

　福田内閣で防衛相を務めていた石破茂農水相の事務所に、神奈川県在住の男性から連絡が入ったのは今年に入ってからのこと。次のような内容だった。

　「私は横須賀にある自衛隊基地や米軍基地が見渡せる高台の土地を所有している。宅地にも商業用地にも向かない場所だが、最近、業者を通じて『売ってほしい』と頻繁に連絡が入る。不審に思って調べてみると、中国やロシア関係者の依頼だった」

　このため、石破事務所では男性から何度か事情を聴いた。男性は「安全保障上の問題があるのでは。私は外国人には売る気はない」と語ったという。福田内閣末期となり、石破事務所は防衛省関係者に事案を引き継いだ。

　横須賀は多数の入り江を形成する天然の良港で、明治以来、海軍鎮守府が置かれて軍都として栄えた。戦後、横須賀本港や隣の長浦港には、海上自衛隊地方総監部や米海軍横須賀基地などが設置された。

　海自が誇る護衛艦隊や潜水艦、掃海艇部隊だけでなく、米第７艦隊の巡洋艦や駆逐艦なども配備されており、今年９月からは米原子力空母「ジョージ・ワシントン」も事実上の母港として配備された。

　港近くまで山が迫っているため、横須賀には港が一望できる高台がいくつかある。記者は地方総監部裏にある高台に登ってみた。高台の下から直接登る道はなく、迷路のように入り組んだ細い道を通って、やっとたどり着いた。住宅や商売に向く場所ではない。

　高台の空き地に立つと、「おおなみ」などの護衛艦数隻をはじめ、８月に退役した南極観測船「しらせ」などが目の前に見える。地図を確認すると護衛艦が接岸する桟橋まで３００メートルもない。双眼鏡を使えば、右奥にある米海軍基地への艦船の出入りも把握できそうだ。

　近くの住人は「以前、過激派があの高台周辺から基地に何かを撃ち込んだことがある。警察も時々、『何かありませんか』と訪ねてくるが、出入りを防ぐような柵もない。そういえば、前の道路で外国語を話す不審な人間を見かけたことがある」と話す。

　この高台については、２００４年からの自衛隊イラク派遣で第１次復興業務支援隊長を務め、サワマの住民から「ヒゲの隊長」として親しまれた自民党の佐藤正久参院議員も視察している。

　「現場に行ってゾッとした。ＲＰＧ（携帯型ロケット推進てき弾、射程数百メートル）などで狙われたらひとたまりもない。当時、衝突事故を起こしたイージス『あたご』も停泊していたが、甲板上の乗組員の動きも確認できた。地理的条件は仕方ないが、何か対策を取らなければならない」

　最近、対馬の自衛隊基地周辺の土地が韓国資本に次々と買収されていることが永田町で問題になっているが、横須賀のこうした高台についても、安全保障上警戒すべきではないのか。

　佐藤氏は「サマワでは敵対勢力の攻撃を受けにくく、近づく者を発見しやすい砂漠の真ん中に基地を設営した。今回の場合、『保安用地』や『バッファゾーン（緩衝地帯）』として、国が所有者から土地を借り上げたり、購入したりすべきではないか。日本はもっと安全保障について真剣に考えなければならない」と話している。

ZAKZAK 2008/11/18

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「レンタルお姉さん」派遣、引きこもり回復の体験語る

第１２回列島縦断講演会

　自宅に「引きこもり」の息子を抱える全国の親たちの相談を受けて「レンタルお姉さん」を派遣、若者たちの自立を後押しするＮＰＯ法人「ニュースタート事務局」（千葉県浦安市、二神能基代表）による全国縦断講演会。完全に社会参加できる一歩手前まで“回復”した若者５人が、自分自身の言葉でこれまでの体験を語った。

　最近の雇用抑制のあおりで、引きこもりは増加の一途。全国で１６３万人を数えるという。今回、自身の体験を披露した鈴木龍さん（２９）も、３年前までは筋金入りの「引きこもり」だった。

　自室で３６時間一睡もせずゲームに没頭し、それ以外は寝ているか酒を飲んでいるだけの生活を５年間続けてきた。ところが、突然自宅に現れた「レンタルお姉さん」との交流を機に、現在は同事務局のスタッフとして働くまで元気になった。

　「一般企業の正社員として仕事するのは、いまでも無理だと思う。でも自分のペースでできる仕事－たとえばパソコン作業とか車の運転とか、何かしらの仕事で役に立てるという喜びとやりがいがあることを知ったことが何より大きかった」

　会場は、イスが足りなくなるほどの盛況ぶり。必死にメモを取る来場者の大半は、引きこもりの子供を抱える親たちだろう。来場者の平均年齢は５０代半ばといったところか。

　同事務局では、レンタルお姉さんの訪問を手始めに、「若衆宿」という寮での共同生活、「仕事体験塾」での学習と仕事体験、ビジネスマナー講座や進路相談などを実施。平均１年３カ月で卒業（就職、進学）にこぎつけさせるという。

　参加者の１人は「息子も私も現状を打開したい思いはあるが、結局何も進まないまま１０年以上が過ぎてしまった。レンタルお姉さんが『（引きこもりの若者が語る）ノーという言葉の中にあるイエスを信じる』という言葉に改めて勇気づけられた」と話していた。

ZAKZAK 2008/11/18

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個人情報：三井住友銀、１万件超す顧客情報紛失

　三井住友銀行は１７日、全国４６１店のうち３８６店で計１万２０８３件の顧客情報を紛失したと発表。紛失したのは預金印鑑届（１万３６０件）と９７～０１年の顧客の入出金を記録した資料（１７２３件）。誤廃棄した可能性が高く、不正利用された形跡はないという。

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ヌーボー：輸入半減…不況でお祭り気分なし？　解禁２０日

　ボージョレ・ヌーボーの解禁日が２０日に迫った。今年の輸入量は５４万ケース（７５０ミリリットル瓶１２本換算）と予測され、前年比２割減。ピークの０４年の１０４万ケースに比べるとほぼ半減する。解禁日にお祭り騒ぎで一気に消費するスタイルは変化しつつあり、ワインメーカーは食品会社と協力し、「家庭で楽しむワイン」へとイメージチェンジに躍起だ。【森禎行】

　輸入量が急減した原因は過剰在庫。ワイン大手のメルシャンは「０４年は各社とも翌年２月ごろまで売れ残り、他のワインの売り上げも減った」と話す。売れ筋ワインは１０００円前後だが、ヌーボーは２０００円以上と単価が高い。各社が「ヌーボー頼み」の営業戦略を取ったことで、輸入量が膨らんだ。だが、消費者の低価格志向が進み、最近では「値段が下がるのを待つ消費者も目立つ」（大手業者）。過剰在庫はその後も続き、今年は「各社とも消費低迷を見越して輸入を抑えた」（同）という。

　フランス側の事情もある。ヌーボーの輸出促進を図るフランス食品振興会（東京都渋谷区）は「造りすぎでブドウ畑の収量が減った。味の質を高めるため今後は量を抑える方針」と話す。振興会は年末年始まで楽しめるワインにしたい考えで「軽い飲み口はおせち料理にも合う」とアピールする。

　ワインメーカーは食品会社との連携を進める。メルシャンはハウス食品と組み、全国のスーパーなどでヌーボーに合うシチュー製品と一緒に陳列するキャンペーンを展開する。サントリーは日清フーズや日本ハムなど食品大手４社と組み、パスタやピザとの組み合わせを提案。ヌーボーに合う料理レシピも用意する。

　今年の価格は、６月以前の円安段階で商談が成立したため、平均２０００円台後半と「昨年より平均５％程度値上がりする」（メルシャン）。ただ各社とも「収穫が少ない分、味や香りが濃縮された良いワインに仕上がった」としている。

【ことば】ボージョレ・ヌーボー

　フランス南東部のボージョレ地域で収穫されたばかりのブドウで造る新酒ワイン。１１月の第３木曜日が解禁日と定められ、日本は時差の関係で欧州より早く飲めることから、８０年代後半のバブル期や９７年の「赤ワインブーム」などで人気に火が付いた。日本の輸入量は２位のドイツを大きく引き離し、全輸出量のほぼ半分を占める。

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薬ネット販売：薬害被害者ら、規制求め国に要望書

　薬害被害者や消費者運動の計２４団体は１７日、０９年６月予定の改正薬事法施行に伴い、一般用医薬品（市販薬）のインターネット販売を規制するよう求める要望書を舛添要一厚生労働相と甘利明規制改革担当相に提出した。

　初の大幅見直しになる改正薬事法は、市販薬を副作用などの危険性が高い順に１～３類に分けている。厚労省は、かぜ薬などの１、２類については対面販売を義務付け、インターネット販売を認めない方針だが、内閣府の規制改革会議は今月２０日、「消費者の利便性を奪い違法」との見解を出し、意見が対立している。

　２４団体は「サリドマイドやスモンなどの薬害は市販薬で起きており、ネット販売の規制を放棄すれば安全性は大きく後退する」と主張している。【清水健二】

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ＩＯＣ：Ｊ＆Ｊは契約更新せず…最高位の世界スポンサー

　国際オリンピック委員会（ＩＯＣ）は１７日、最高位の世界スポンサー「ＴＯＰ（ジ・オリンピック・プログラム）」１２社のうちの一つである米医薬品大手ジョンソン・エンド・ジョンソン（Ｊ＆Ｊ）が、２００９年から４年間の契約を更新しないことを明らかにした。

　同社によると、中国での宣伝効果を期待した北京五輪が終わったためという。契約更新料は４年間で約１億ドル（約９７億円）とも報じられている。（ＡＰ共同）

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ＧＭ：販売奨励金２８９億円支払い遅延　本業低迷必至

　【ワシントン斉藤信宏】ゼネラル・モーターズ（ＧＭ）は１７日、販売店への奨励金の支払いを遅らせるとの方針を明らかにした。当初の予定では、今月２８日に支払う予定だったが、１２月１１日に設定しなおした。米メディアによると、支払いが遅れる販売奨励金は約３億ドル（約２８９億円）になるという。

　販売奨励金は、販売店に新車販売の促進を求める際に極めて重要となる費用。ＧＭの新車販売台数は１０月には前年同月比４５％減となるなど大幅に落ち込んでいる。奨励金の支払いが遅れることで、ＧＭの新車販売がさらに低迷することは必至と見られている。

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11:48 GMT, Tuesday, 18 November 2008
Judge pulls out of Franco probes
Breaking News

A top Spanish judge has pulled out of investigations into the fate of more than 100,000 people who vanished during the civil war and Franco dictatorship.

They say Baltasar Garzon complied with prosecutors' demands that inquiries should be handled by courts in regions where crimes were allegedly committed.

Judge Garzon announced last month that the opening of mass graves from Spain's 1936-39 civil war could start.

But Spain's top criminal court later suspended the exhumations.

It imposed the halt to allow it to rule on whether Judge Garzon had the competence to launch the inquiry.

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0 GMT, Monday, 17 November 2008
Syria nuclear clues 'not damning'
Mohamed ElBaradei

The director of the UN atomic watchdog, has said a report he is due to present later this week on Syrian nuclear activity will "not be conclusive".

"We still have work to do," the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, said in Dubai.

"We need more co-operation from Syria... We need also co-operation from Israel," Mr ElBaradei told reporters.

Recent unconfirmed reports said the IAEA had found traces of atomic material on a site bombed by Israel.

"We won't be able to reach a quick conclusion unless we have credible information.

"There was uranium but it doesn't mean there was a reactor... It's not highly enriched uranium," Mr ElBaradei added.

The US has said the target of Israel's raid in September 2007 was a secret nuclear reactor built with North Korean help that was nearing completion.

Syrian officials said the site was a disused military building and accused US intelligence agencies of fabricating evidence against their country.

IAEA inspectors visited the bombed al-Kibar site in June, where they took samples that appear to have contained the radioactive material, but Damascus has blocked any follow-up trips.

Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Muallim dismissed as politically motivated last week's press disclosures, attributed to unnamed diplomats linked to the UN watchdog.

He said uranium could have come from munitions used by Israel to bomb the site.

Damascus had said it will co-operate with the IAEA inquiry only if it does not threaten its national security

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Monday, 17 November 2008
Israeli 'mafia' boss assassinated
By Paul Wood
BBC News, Jerusalem

Police inspect the car Don Alperon was driving when the attack happened

One of the leading figures in Israel's mafia-style organised crime gangs has been assassinated in a car bomb attack.

Yaakov Alperon, known as "Don Alperon", was driving his saloon car through a northern suburb of Tel Aviv when the vehicle was torn apart by a huge blast.

Two bystanders were also slightly injured in the explosion, one a 13-year-old boy waiting at a bus stop.

The attack has raised concerns that an Israeli mob war could be about to spin out of control.

Civilian fears

Little was left of the car after the explosion, which was apparently set off by remote control just before midday.

Don Alperon's body was seen slumped over the steering wheel.

A police spokesman said, with understatement, that the security forces were now assessing the situation to see what would develop in Tel Aviv.

This is the latest and most serious attack in an Israeli mob war which some fear may once again be coming to the boil.

That is worrying because of the lack of concern shown by the mobsters for civilian casualties.

Anti-tank missiles, grenades and bombs have all been used in Israeli mob hits.

In one failed attempt to kill a rival gang leader in 2003, three people died when a bomb explosion hit a passing bus.

In another attack, a whole building was destroyed while the intended target, another mafia leader, walked away.

Don Alperon was a flamboyant figure known for dating famous and beautiful women from Israeli show-business.

He was said to run Tel Aviv's third-largest crime family.

If Tel Aviv is in for another period of bloody rivalry between the city's mafia gangs, residents will want to know if the police are capable of stopping it.

That has not always seemed to be the case in the past.

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Goldman, Morgan Stanley Squeeze Exchanges With New Platforms

By Joyce Moullakis and Nandini Sukumar

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and investment banks in Europe are using the early success of new trading platforms they have backed to push exchange fees lower.

Goldman and Morgan Stanley, whose profit in the first three quarters is down 44 percent from last year, and brokers at firms such as Merrill Lynch & Co. and Citigroup Inc. have demanded European exchanges cut trading tariffs. The companies have won new clout by backing alternate trading platforms such as Chi-X Europe Ltd. and Turquoise and by urging rival bourses to set up shop in Europe.

``Banks have been angry for some time about fees,'' said Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York and an expert on exchanges. ``They've pointed out that volumes have grown and fees haven't come down. And in an environment like this, you can expect them to ratchet up pressure. They definitely have more leverage now with the likes of Turquoise and Chi-X.''

A year after the European Union's Markets in Financial Instruments Directive made competition possible, new entrants are gaining traction, offering some cheer for banks as the industry confronts its worst year since the Great Depression. At stake are billions of dollars in trading revenue.

London-based Turquoise, owned by the biggest investment banks and run by ex-Morgan Stanley executive Eli Lederman, drew 4.8 percent of trading of FTSE 100 stocks yesterday, two months after launching, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in London. Chi-X, a unit of Instinet Europe Ltd. that began operating last year and is also backed by investment banks, is the most successful of the new platforms. It captured 15.7 percent of trading in FTSE 100 stocks yesterday.

Bats, Nasdaq OMX

Citigroup, the fourth-biggest U.S. bank by market value, said it executed 40 percent of its U.K. trades last month on Chi-X, 12 percent on Turquoise and the rest on the London Stock Exchange. The bank owns stakes in both Chi-X and Turquoise.

Two U.S. exchanges that began operating in Europe during the third quarter are also putting pressure on established bourses. Bats Trading Inc., a three-year-old company that grew into the No. 3 U.S. equity market, says it plans to be ``aggressive'' in winning at least a 10 percent market share in the region. It accounted for 0.5 percent of trading in FTSE 100 stocks yesterday, according to Sanford Bernstein.

Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., the bourse handling the most U.S. share trades, cut some fees by more half on Oct. 23, five weeks after opening its pan-European trading platform. It's now cheaper to trade an LSE-listed stock through Nasdaq OMX Europe than directly on LSE.

Breaking `Monopolies'

As a result of the competition, London Stock Exchange Group Plc, NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse AG have each cut some fees. LSE has changed the way it charges brokers, and NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse plan alternate trading platforms of their own. The NYSE Euronext platform, called NYSE Arca Europe, will trade 400 to 500 stocks that aren't currently listed on the company's four European bourses. It is aimed at taking business from both LSE and Deutsche Bourse.

``Exchanges were monopolies,'' said Ashok Krishnan, managing director of execution services at Merrill Lynch in London. ``That chain has now been broken. They have to react differently.''

That's what LSE did when Nasdaq OMX Europe lowered fees. On Nov. 1, the U.K.'s biggest exchange said it will charge alternative-trading platforms for doing deals on its market. LSE, which earlier cut fees for brokers who add liquidity, said it would charge 1 basis point on a trade that is ``business on behalf'' of other markets.

LSE's new rivals are offering to route traders through LSE if they can't find a match for orders on their markets.

Winners and Losers

``We've wrung some of the efficiencies out, like speed and new fees, but there's more to go,'' said Rob Maher, head of advanced execution services sales for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Credit Suisse Group AG, which owns stakes in Chi-X and Turquoise. ``Looking at volumes, it's going to be a battle. The current environment means we will see who the winners and losers will be much more quickly. It is unlikely one will see any of the major multilateral trading facilities disappearing anytime soon, as they have deep pockets and serious backers.''

Banks worldwide are reeling from $710 billion of writedowns and credit losses since last year and more than 158,000 job cuts. Investment banks and brokerages have been hit on three fronts at once, as global equity-market valuations slump, institutional clients seek lower brokerage commissions and brokers are forced by technological changes to trade more to execute orders.

`Squeeze the Vendor'

``Overall the banks are getting squeezed, so they squeeze the vendor,'' Christopher Concannon, Nasdaq's head of transaction services, said in an interview. ``It's business. You're trying to control your costs. And through this wonderful margin goes a red line that's exchange fees.''

The seven largest U.S. brokerage firms posted equity- trading income of $9.69 billion in the second quarter, the lowest level in 18 months, according to data compiled by Standard & Poor's Equity Research Ltd. Their combined equity trading revenue peaked at $12.5 billion in the first quarter of 2007, S&P said.

Commissions earned by brokers trading European stocks are also declining, down about 5 percent this year compared with 2007. Most of the reduction stems from a drop in rates paid by institutions -- an average of 15 basis points on so-called high- touch trades and 5 basis points on electronic trades, according to a September report by Greenwich Associates in Greenwich, Connecticut. A basis point is 0.01 percent.

`Loss Leader'

As trading algorithms and computer systems grow more sophisticated, orders are sliced into smaller and smaller pieces so they can more easily find the best match. This means that while the value of trades is declining, brokers are trading more to execute them. That's part of the reason exchanges are enjoying a boom in volumes, which translates into higher costs for brokers.

``The equity trading businesses have become a loss leader,'' said Richard Bove, an analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. in Lutz, Florida, who has followed brokerages for 26 years. Bove expects the industry's equity-trading revenue to decline by as much as 15 percent this year.

That has intensified pressure on exchanges. LSE charges about 0.65 basis points a trade, according to Mamoun Tazi, an analyst at MF Global Securities Ltd. in London. That compares with 0.2 basis points and 0.4 basis points for the multilateral trading facilities, as the new entrants are called.

Fee Reductions

``Cash equity is a commoditized business, which means that price will be the main differentiator,'' Tazi said. ``The competitive advantage of liquidity was reduced by the introduction of the new regulatory regime and recent advances in technology. This means the LSE will lose significant market share.''

Tazi said LSE's earnings may fall 42 percent in the next three years because of greater competition and lower volumes.

The increased competition ``is timely,'' said Andrew Silverman, managing director of electronic trading at Morgan Stanley. ``We will see more pressure on exchanges to reduce costs.'' Fee reductions need to be ``deeper,'' he said.

Bryan Koplin, Goldman's executive director of electronic- transaction services in London, made a similar point.

``Exchanges, just like all providers, need to demonstrate value for services rendered,'' Koplin said.

LSE Reaction

LSE announced price cuts on Aug. 1 that it said would make it ``the cheapest trading venue in Europe for major users.'' The exchange said it will stop charging per trade, and instead will look to the value of the order and also offer incentives to some traders using its electronic order book.

``We believe we are competitive and intend to remain competitive,'' said Patrick Humphris, a spokesman for the exchange. ``We recently moved to a maker-taker fee structure, which offers substantial discounts and rebates for the highest volume clients. There may be some venues that seek to offer their services at less than economic rates, but this clearly isn't sustainable in the longer term.''

Deutsche Boerse, Europe's biggest exchange by market value, announced on Aug. 26 that it would cut fees for algorithmic traders and offer new clearing packages, moves that may trim as much as 35 million euros ($44 million) from revenue.

The announcement came a week after the Swiss Stock Exchange decided to lower tariffs by as much as 30 percent on its London SWX Europe market, where the biggest Swiss stocks were listed. Last week the exchange shut the market amid competition.

`Regulation, Not Competition'

NYSE Euronext, the world's largest owner of stock exchanges, also said it has cut fees for traders using several of the company's bourses.

The price cuts have pleased James Laing, who oversees 6 billion pounds ($9 billion) as head of pan-European equities at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London and who says he isn't sold on the new platforms.

``I'm delighted trading costs are falling,'' Laing said. ``But it's nice to have big pools of liquidity, and I'm not sure fragmentation helps. Regulation, not competition, might do the same thing.''

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Pound Drop `Significant,' Not Yet Crisis, Lamont Says (Update1)

By Brian Swint
Enlarge Image/Details

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont said the pound's drop will help the British economy as long as it doesn't turn into a ``run'' on the currency.

``Plainly there's been a very significant depreciation, I'm not sure that qualifies as a run,'' Lamont, finance minister during Britain's last currency crisis in 1992, said in an interview yesterday. ``There are opportunities when a currency depreciates. But as so often when you have these situations, what starts as a small move can quickly become, quote, a run.''

The British currency's 24 percent decline against the dollar this year raises the specter of September 1992, when Lamont failed to prevent a sell-off in the pound that pushed it out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts predicted yesterday that the currency will extend its current slump to the lowest level since 1985.

Investors have sold the pound on concern about the size of a U.K. recession and the prospect that Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government may ramp up spending, widening the biggest budget gap since World War II.

``If we are at risk of having a crisis, it's a funding crisis, funding our deficit,'' said Lamont, a member of the opposition Conservative Party, who was attending the Money Transfers London 2008 conference. ``I do not think they should have a massive stimulus package, I don't think we can afford it.''

Budget Deficit

The U.K. Treasury had a budget gap of 37.6 billion pounds ($56 billion) in the first half of its fiscal year. Since March, Brown's Labour Party government has delivered tax cuts and spending increases worth 4.8 billion pounds to give relief to low- income earners, delay an increase in fuel duties and to help homeowners with mortgages and stamp-duty taxes.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will announce further measures in his pre-budget report on Nov. 24.

``If we are to have some massive, Keynesian stimulus, you could have figures that could dramatically shoot us up the league of indebted countries,'' Lamont said. ``There is a risk that long-term interest rates may shoot up.''

The pound traded at $1.5007 and 84.07 pence against the euro as of 10:33 a.m. in London. The currency will drop to $1.28 and a record low of 92 pence per euro, JPMorgan said.

Lamont defended George Osborne, spokesman for the opposition Conservative party on economics, who was criticized by Brown for saying that the government risks creating ``a proper sterling collapse, a run on the pound.'' Brown said Osborne needed to be more ``responsible'' in his comments.

`Unfairly Criticized'

``Osborne has been unfairly criticized and he was only stating some things that had been said by many other people,'' Lamont said. He also said the pound's slide is no reason to reconsider adopting the euro, now shared by 15 European countries.

``I'm not in any way an enthusiast for joining the euro,'' Lamont said. ``After all, until the last few months, people would have pointed to the amazing stability of sterling. We haven't had any bad experiences because of being out of the euro.''

The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate fell below the European Central Bank's rate for the first time since the euro started in 1999 this month. The U.K. rate is now 3 percent, compared with 3.25 percent in the euro area.

The U.K.'s inflation rate had the biggest drop in at least 11 years in October, giving the central bank room to cut borrowing costs further. Inflation slowed to 4.5 percent from 5.2 percent in September, the statistics office said today.

Recession Forecast

The U.K. economy will contract the most in almost three decades next year, the Confederation of British Industry, Britain's biggest business lobby, forecast yesterday. The euro area entered its first recession since 1999 in the third quarter.

Lamont served under Prime Minister John Major as chancellor from 1990 and 1993, overseeing the country's last recession. He led the government's defense of the pound against speculators betting on its exit from the peg against other European currencies.

Lamont announced an increase in the benchmark interest rate to 15 percent on ``Black Wednesday,'' Sept. 16, 1992, before the government abandoned the effort the same day and allowed the pound to drop out of the ERM. The currency lost 9.8 percent that week.