View of the Day: UK recession
By Jonathan Loynes
Published: November 17 2008 16:32 | Last updated: November 17 2008 16:32
The prospect of a fiscal boost in the Pre-Budget Report and the recent fall in sterling will not prevent a severe UK recession says Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics.
He says the consensus at this weekend’s G20 meeting that governments should do whatever necessary to aid their economies has given a green light to a package of tax cuts or spending increases in Monday’s PBR.
“But there are reasons not to expect the package to provide much support for the economy in the near future,” says Mr Loynes.
First, he says, there is a question mark over whether it will be big enough. Second, while some tax cuts look likely, a significant part of the package may consist of bringing forward planned spending projects. Finally, there are concerns over the longer-term impact of a further worsening in the fiscal position.
He says while the pound’s drop should boost exporters and companies competing with imports, exports are more influenced by the strength of overseas demand than by the exchange rate.
“Accordingly, with overseas demand likely to remain very weak for a number of quarters, it seems unlikely that the weaker pound will give exports a meaningful boost until 2010 at the earliest.”
While looser fiscal policy and a lower exchange rate may be positive over the medium to long term, the Bank of England will have to loosen monetary policy further. “We continue to expect UK interest rates to fall to 1 per cent or even lower.”
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Insight: The dollar is a flawed currency
By Jim Rogers
Published: November 17 2008 16:05 | Last updated: November 17 2008 16:05
The following are excerpts from this week’s View from the Markets online interview
FT: It’s a year since we last interviewed you. You were aggressively bearish about the dollar, but you thought there would probably be a rebound and you would take that as an opportunity to further get out of the dollar. Have you made a further exit from the dollar?
JR: Not yet, no. And the reason I haven’t is because we’re in a period of forced liquidation of everything. We’ve only had eight or nine periods like this in the past 150 years, where everybody has to reverse their positions on everything. There is a gigantic short position in the dollar and they’re all having to cover as they reverse their positions, so this rout is going to go on much further than I would have expected, to my delight, because then I’ll get to sell at higher prices. I don’t know whether I’ll get out this month or this year even, maybe next year, but I do plan to get out of the rest of my US dollars, because this is an artificial rally caused purely by short covering.
FT: How will you tell when that deleveraging is finally over?
JR: I’m sure I won’t get it right, but I do hope that when there’s a lot of euphoria about the dollar and everybody’s saying, well, see, there’s no problem with the dollar... I hope I’m smart enough to recognise it and finally get out of the dollar, because it is a flawed and maybe, even, doomed currency.
FT: Do you see the sell-offs we’ve seen in commodities as a drastic correction?
JR: Well, we’re in a period of forced liquidation of all assets... we’re getting the business cycle effect on demand right now, certainly, but unless the world’s in perpetual economic decline, commodities are the only thing going to come out of this okay.
FT: Does this mean you’re actually buying back into commodities at the moment, or is this an area you’re standing clear of?
JR: No, no. In October when I started covering my shorts in the US stock market, I started buying Chinese shares, Taiwan shares, I started buying commodities again. No, no, I’ve added to those positions.
FT: What’s your strategy towards emerging market stocks?
JR: My hope is that I’m smart enough and brave enough at some point along the line to buy some of them back. But I’m not even thinking about it right now... The world’s financial situation is in a mess, and there are a lot of people who have to liquidate. I mean, we must have had 30,000 MBAs flying around the world looking for emerging markets. All of that money has got to come home.
FT: How do you think the world should go about redesigning the regulatory system, and are you worried that we’re going to end up with a swing towards over-regulation?
JR: Well, we probably will, The problem is that people like Alan Greenspan would never let the market work... For 15 years, under Greenspan, and now Bernanke, they would not let the market work. Had they let Long-Term Capital Management fail back in 1998, we wouldn’t have these problems now, I assure you. Lehman Brothers would have been smashed. Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, would have been smashed. We wouldn’t have these problems now. That only happened because every time they turned around they propped these guys up, gave them more money, and that’s why we have the problem... But now, of course, they’re going to blame it on other people and cause more regulations.
FT: You’re arguing we need to allow some more big institutions to fail?
JR: One failed. Why didn’t they let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? I mean, I was short Fannie Mae, and they should have let it fail, go zero. AIG, they should have let it fail, they should have let all of these guys fail, and we would clean out the system... What they’re doing is they’re taking the assets away from the competent people, giving them to the incompetent people and saying to the incompetent: “Okay, now you can compete with the competent people, with their money.” I mean this is terrible economics. This is outrageous economics.
Jim Rogers is an investor, author and founder of the Rogers International Commodity Index. You can also hear his views on oil, China and the Japanese yen at www.ft.com/vftm
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Pirates raise stakes with oil tanker hijack
By Andrew England in Cairo and Robert Wright in London
Published: November 17 2008 13:11 | Last updated: November 17 2008 19:08
Pirates operating off the coast of east Africa have hijacked a Saudi supertanker fully laden with an estimated 2m barrels of oil in an attack that marks a significant escalation in the scope of banditry in the region.
The pirates, believed to be from lawless Somalia, seized control of the Sirius Star, which is owned by Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, on Saturday, 450 nautical miles south-east of the Kenyan Indian Ocean port of Mombasa.
It is estimated that the tanker was holding more than a quarter of the daily exports from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter. The oil would have been worth about $100m (€79m, £66.5m) at Monday’s market price but is probably of little interest to the pirates.
Pottengal Mukundan, director of the International Maritime Bureau, said that the only cargoes that had interested Somali pirates previously were the shipments of World Food Programme aid.
Instead, pirates seize vessels to extort ransoms – often of about $2m – from shipowners desperate to have their crews returned.
Somali lawlessness spreads
November 16: Abdullahi Yusuf, Somalia’s president, says Islamist insurgents now control most of the south of the country, with the exception of the coastal capital and, Baidoa, the provincial seat of parliament
November 15: The Sirius Star, a fully laden Saudi tanker carrying 2m barrels of oil is attacked 450 nautical miles south-east of Mombasa, Kenya, the US Navy says
November 12: Two Somali pirates die in an exchange of fire with the Royal Navy in the Gulf of Aden. Somali Islamists, who have been gaining territory all year, take the port of Merka and the town of Elasha, bringing them within nine miles of Mogadishu, the capital
October 1: The Russian and US navies are given permission by Somalia’s interim government to use force against pirates who hijacked a Ukrainian ship laden with 33 tanks and other military hardware
September 15: European Union foreign ministers approve plans for a possible naval mission to the Horn of Africa to crack down on Somali pirates
The number of pirate acts reported to have occurred or been attempted off the coast of east Africa rose to 84 between January and September, compared with 46 over the same period in 2007, according to the International Maritime Organisation, making it the world’s worst affected region in terms of piracy.
Pirates currently hold 14 ships off the coast of Somalia.
Seven per cent of world oil consumption passed through the Gulf of Aden in 2007, according to Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit.
The tanker is about three times the tonnage of a US aircraft carrier, making it the largest vessel ever seized by pirates.
The attack also took place farther out to sea than before, signalling that the pirates have become increasingly bold, organised and able to adapt their tactics, experts say.
“It certainly represents a fundamental change in the pirates’ ability to be able to attack vessels out to sea,” said Lieutenant Nathan Christensen, a spokesman for the US Fifth Fleet, which patrols the region’s waters.
Somali pirates in speed boats, heavily armed with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, have been wreaking havoc in the Gulf of Aden, launching regular attacks on vessels in the past two years. But the latest incident suggests they are moving further south into the Indian Ocean as western navies increase their patrols off the waters of Somalia, experts say.
The seizure puts an end to hopes that a succession of engagements in recent weeks between international military forces and pirates might have put an end to the security crisis in the area.
While most other seizures have been of vessels heading into or out of the Suez Canal, the latest incident will raise question marks about the safety of the route from the Arabian Gulf to the Cape of Good Hope – a route taken by the largest oil tankers heading from the world’s main oil-producing regions to both Europe and North America.
The development therefore puts at risk a far higher proportion of the world’s energy shipments than the 12 per cent that shipping organisations had already considered in danger. “That route from the Cape to the Gulf was not considered the riskiest route,” said Mr Mukundan.
Cyrus Mody, manager at the International Maritime Bureau, said the pirates would probably look to move the Sirius Star to the coast of Somalia where they would anchor it and begin negotiation with the owners.
However, the pirates are likely to face challenges navigating the vast ship, which will be sitting far too low in the water to go anywhere near the coast where they have normally taken captured ships.
Mr Mukundan also warned there was a substantial danger of pollution, either if the vessel was involved in an accident through poor navigation or if the cargo was not properly cared for while it was being held.
The Sirius Star, flagged in Liberia and operated by Vela International, has a deadweight tonnage of 318,000 tonnes and sits 10m above the water level. Its 25-man crew is made up of numerous nationalities, including Britons and Saudis.
“I think they will demand good money because it’s a brand new ship,” said Andrew Mwangura, of the East Africa Seafarers’ Assistance Programme. “I think they have hit the jackpot.”
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Berlin set to give Opel €1bn guarantee
By Bertrand Benoit in Berlin
Published: November 17 2008 23:34 | Last updated: November 17 2008 23:34
Berlin is ready to give Opel a €1bn credit guarantee after the German arm of General Motors said it could run out of cash.
A final decision would be taken by late December, Angela Merkel, the country’s chancellor, said on Monday, adding that any funds covered would be expected to stay in Germany.
“This is a special case,” she said after meeting GM’s European management and workers representatives at the chancellery.
“This is the basis on which we are talking.”
Carl-Peter Forster, the European head of GM, said: “We are talking about a safety net for the highly unlikely scenario that we should no longer have access to liquidity in the mid or long term.”
GM said this month that it risked reaching the minimum amount of cash needed to operate its worldwide business by early 2009 unless car markets revived or it found new sources of funding. The carmaker is seeking emergency government aid in the US, along with Ford and Chrysler.
Opel is suffering a dramatic slump in demand. The brand’s sales and those of Vauxhall, its sister marque, fell nearly 14 per cent year-on-year in western Europe between January and October, compared with a 6 per cent drop in the overall market, according to Acea, the carmakers’ association.
Opel, which has been in US hands since 1929, employs 25,700 people in four German states. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a car industry expert, estimates that about 100,000 jobs at suppliers depend on the company.
Another meeting between federal government representatives and the state premiers of Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate and Thuringia is scheduled on Tuesday to discuss the crisis at Opel.
Roland Koch, the caretaker premier of Hesse, where Opel’s RÃŒsselsheim headquarters are based, obtained the go-ahead from the regional parliament on Monday to authorise a credit guarantee of up to €500m for the carmaker.
Berlin informed the European Commission on Monday that it was in talks about granting the carmaker a credit guarantee. Government officials said Ms Merkel had discussed the situation at General Motors with Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, in Washington at the weekend.
The flurry of activity around the ailing carmaker came as both Ms Merkel and Frank-Walter Steinmeier – her foreign minister who will head his Social Democratic party’s ticket at next year’s general election – were accused of underestimating the severity of the economic crisis that has hit Europe’s largest economy.
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Survey exposes depth of US woe
By James Politi in Washington
Published: November 17 2008 19:43 | Last updated: November 17 2008 19:43
Economists believe the US has been in recession since April and will remain there until the middle of 2009, according to a survey published on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
The bleak report by the Philly Fed confirms the sharp deterioration in US economic conditions in recent months as the credit crisis intensified and unemployment rose sharply.
The survey, based on interviews with 51 leading economic forecasters, is published every three months. Monday’s report said participants were “unanimous” in describing the US economy as being either in a recession or on the brink of one. Most said the recession had begun in April and would last 14 months.
The deepening US economic turmoil was reflected in the survey’s projections for gross domestic product in the coming quarter. Whereas three months ago forecasters were expecting annualised growth of 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 1.6 per cent in the first quarter of next year, they are now predicting annualised contractions of 2.9 per cent in the current quarter and 1.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2009. The US economy retrenched at an annualised rate of 0.3 per cent in the third quarter of this year.
About two-thirds of participants in the survey said their forecast assumed the US would enact a new fiscal stimulus package of about $211bn, eclipsing the $150bn stimulus earlier this year.
US data has been remarkably poor over the past few weeks, with most indicators disappointing even increasingly pessimistic expectations by economists. On Friday, the commerce department revealed that retail sales fell in October by 2.8 per cent – the biggest monthly drop on record – highlighting the plight of the US consumer heading into the key Christmas shopping season. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 6.1 per cent to 6.5 per cent last month as the economy shed 240,000 jobs.
One piece of encouraging news came on Monday from data on industrial production, which rose by 1.3 per cent, or more than the 0.2 per cent gain expected by economists. But, any sense that heavy-duty manufacturing might be holding up amid the downturn was tempered by a sharp downward revision to the September data, when industrial production fell by 3.7 per cent partly on the back of hurricanes Ike and Gustav, compared to the previous estimate of a 2.8 per cent drop.
“Taken together, industrial production is clearly down over the last two months, so underlying deterioration has happened underneath the distortions caused by the hurricanes,” said Goldman Sachs economists in a note.
In coming days, all eyes will be on inflation data –- with the release of consumer price and producer price indices. Meanwhile, Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, and Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, will on Tuesday testify before the House financial services committee.
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Russia to cut oil export duty by third
By Isabel Gorst in Moscow
Published: November 17 2008 20:51 | Last updated: November 17 2008 20:51
Russia plans to cut its oil export duties by a third next month, offering much-needed relief to companies that have been making a loss on their crude exports.
Exporting oil from Russia, the world’s second biggest producer, has become unprofitable as a result of the fall in the price of crude and heavy taxation.
Oil companies had been warning they were being forced to cut their exports, intensifying the financial crisis engulfing Russia.
The Russian government has been calling on the companies to sustain their exports, and indicated on Monday that there would be a steep cut in oil duty to reflect the fall in oil prices.
The duty, which is adjusted monthly, is set to be cut to $192 a tonne from $297 a tonne, a 33 per cent reduction.
Valery Nesterov, an oil analyst at Troika Dialog, said: “It is not easy in a time of crisis for the government to cut taxes, but they cannot kill the milk cow of the budget, the oil sector. So the government is in a precarious situation”
Under-investment in the oil industry would contribute to a 2-3 per cent decline in output next year, he said.
Prices for Urals, the Russian crude export blend, last week dipped below $50 a barrel for the first time since January 2007 as demand weakened in Europe, Russia’s biggest market. It dropped on Monday to $48.32.
Russian oil trades at a discount against international benchmarks such as Brent because of its lower quality.
Moscow-based oil traders said they were braced for losses of up to $17 a barrel in November on crude sales overseas because the duty of $39 a barrel was higher than the export price of Urals crude less transport costs.
Lukoil, Russia’s biggest private oil company, said last week: “This is frightful. It is very bad. Crude oil exports are losing profitability.”
The Kremlin last week ordered the majors not to implement a threat to cut oil exports in November.
Oil companies were last week summoned to the energy ministry and told to drop plans to cut oil exports by 25 per cent.
The companies said they would at least partially comply with government instructions and honour long-term export contracts.
Mr Nesterov said it would be “crazy” for Russia to cede markets to competitors at a time when Europe was seeking to reduce dependence on Russian energy supplies.
Nonetheless, Russian crude oil exports, which sank by 6 per cent in the first 10 months of the year, are expected to decline more sharply in the coming weeks.
The new duty rate will be $26 per barrel, meaning that some exports would still be unprofitable unless the oil price recovers.
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, said tax reforms would be introduced in January to encourage companies to invest in oilfields and reverse a decline in production that set in this year after a decade of unbroken growth.
But oil companies have said deeper tax cuts are required to prevent a reduction in investment in 2009.
Dmitri Loukashov, an oil analyst at UBS, said that it was doubtful that the government would cut oil taxation if the financial crisis intensified.
“Receiving less tax is more of a problem than a drop in oil production,” he said.
Mr Nesterov said that it would be challenging for the government to balance conflicting goals to ensure both the health of the oil industry and budgetary wellbeing.
Mr Putin has signalled willingness to join efforts by Opec, the oil producers’ cartel, to prop up prices, saying Russia could not “sit on the sidelines” while other large exporters plotted world prices.
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Medicines shortage fears grow
By Andrew Jack
Published: November 17 2008 23:12 | Last updated: November 17 2008 23:12
British patients face the prospect of drug shortages as the falling price of medicines makes it more profitable for pharmacists and wholesalers to sell them abroad.
The weakening of sterling against the euro has reduced British drug prices, compared with levels in other countries.
That has fuelled a surge in the legal but grey practice of exporting drugs from the UK to more expensive medicine markets elsewhere in northern Europe – so-called parallel trade.
Supplies could tighten further from January 1, when the government’s Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme comes into force, imposing a 5 per cent price cut on prescription medicines bought by the National Health Service.
Andrew Hotchkiss, managing director of the UK operations of Eli Lilly, the US-based pharmaceutical company, warned of a “triple whammy” creating supply shortages, with the falling pound, price cuts and both fewer imports and more exports all creating uncertainties that could mean medicines are not available in pharmacies.
“We’re worried about patient access,” he told the Financial Times.
Britain has traditionally been an importer of medicines via parallel trade.
Wholesalers and many individual pharmacies have licences that allow them legitimately to export medicines from the UK to other countries where they fetch higher prices.
Concerns are growing that this may increasingly squeeze supplies to British patients.
Martin Sawer, spokesman for the British Association of Pharmaceutical Wholesalers, which distributes medicines from drug companies to pharmacies, said he agreed that there were risks of supply shortages, especially since medicine stocks are likely to run low over the Christmas holidays.
The situation risked being worse than at any time in the past because the introduction of computerised stock control meant pharmacies often held smaller volumes of supplies.
However, he said his members would always ensure that domestic pharmacies and patients received sufficient supplies before they exported any surplus.
Groups of pharmacies may deliberately order more medicine than they require, selling the remainder at a profit – a practice known as skimming. Prices in other northern European countries are about 10 per cent or more higher than in the UK.
Paul Johnson, UK managing director of IMS Health, the data consultancy, agreed that the UK’s share of parallel trade across Europe, traditionally about 30 per cent, had been shrinking since the spring – with faster growth in other higher priced markets. “The UK still has significant parallel imports but they have reduced dramatically in the last few months. And a whole range of products are now being exported. This is a perfect storm.”
He estimated that parallel trade accounted for nearly 10 per cent of Europe’s total prescription medicine sales and involved purchases from low-cost countries led by Greece, Spain and Portugal, with re-sale into the UK, Germany, Benelux and the Nordic region, where parallel imports accounted for nearly €5bn (£4.2bn) a year.
The trend in parallel exports from the UK helps boost sales of medicine wholesalers as well as the domestic subsidiaries of international drug companies.
However, global drug companies have long opposed the practice of parallel trade across Europe, claiming it deprives them of profits while offering few savings to healthcare systems, with most of the price difference taken by intermediaries.
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Warning of huge drop in social housing
By Jim Pickard, Political Correspondent
Published: November 17 2008 22:40 | Last updated: November 17 2008 22:40
There will be a “catastrophic” collapse in provision of new social housing at a time of record waiting lists without urgent intervention by the government, housing associations have warned.
Britain’s 1,900 social landlords, which own half the UK’s stock of 4m council houses, are urging ministers to change the way they are funded to prevent the supply of new, affordable housing drying up completely.
Their ability to build social housing has been hit by the credit crunch, with rising fears about their own financial health.
The Housing Corporation, which funds and monitors the sector, has begun an urgent review of 258 associations. Of 39 examined so far, four have been given an “amber” warning, meaning there are serious fears about their future. Most associations have had to carry out “remedial strategies”, according to the quango.
The associations are, meanwhile, lobbying the government to relax limits on how much central funding can be used for development schemes. At present the grants from the Housing Corporation can provide only up to 40 per cent of a scheme’s funding, with the rest coming from borrowing or sales of private dwellings within the same projects.
The National Housing Federation, which represents the associations, is urging ministers to relax this rule to prevent a “catastrophic” drop in new social housing when there are a record 1.7m households – or 4m people – on waiting lists.
Associations have in recent years been encouraged to carry out development, with the help of bank debt, to subsidise their activities. Many borrowed heavily at the top of the market to buy land banks on which they planned to build vast numbers of new homes.
Typically they sell a large proportion of properties to private buyers to subsidise the social housing they are obliged to build. This is in addition to the large amounts of social housing private housebuilders have to create to get planning permission from councils. But the collapse in the private housing market has rendered many of these projects unviable.
With debt costs rising and finance being withdrawn by banks, some associations have cut their payrolls, with the largest group, Places for People, expected to cut 100 staff. A survey by Baker Tilly, the advisers, shows that 75 per cent of housing association directors expect to see “significant financial difficulties” in the sector in the coming year.
The associations’ plight is emerging as Margaret Beckett, the housing minister, is considering ending the “council house for life” in a bid to deal with the shortage by creating more vacant properties.
The housing associations’ problems will raise further questions about the government’s target of 3m new homes to be built by 2020. About 45,000 units of social housing are expected to be built this year in the UK, out of a total of 70,000.
But David Orr, chief executive of the NHF, told the Financial Times housing associations were battening down their hatches.
“We can’t put new homes on site at the moment if we are assuming cross-subsidy from private homes. To achieve a similar figure next year we need a decision from the government about reprofiling what we do,” he said. Even if the government met the NHF’s demands and allows more grant money to be used per building, there would be “fewer houses for the same amount of public investment”, said Mr Orr.
But the alternative could be a standstill.
“We could do 35,000 to 40,000 homes maybe [in 2009], or we could do nothing, if we assume it wil . . . be paid for in the way we have previously expected.”
Mr Orr said most housing associations were fundamentally strong because they were asset-rich, but: “Clearly it is possible . . . one or two associations have extended so much that they won’t be able to get through.”
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Building societies and overseas banks targeted in tax probe
By Vanessa Houlder
Published: November 17 2008 22:04 | Last updated: November 17 2008 22:04
A fresh onslaught on offshore tax evasion is to be mounted by UK Revenue & Customs early next year when it targets customers of 25 building societies and foreign banks with British operations.
The move follows the Revenue’s success last year in forcing five British high street banks to disclose details of secret offshore accounts. That assault, accompanied by the offer of an amnesty, recovered around £400m in unpaid taxes at a cost to the Exchequer of just £6.5m.
The Revenue is also set to initiate the first prosecutions for tax evasion, arising from that early probe. Five people have been identified as targets for criminal sanctions.
As with the first wave, the new move on building societies and foreign banks will coincide with the launch of a partial amnesty next spring. The 25 will receive legal notices ordering them to disclose details of British residents with foreign accounts in coming weeks. The legal manoeuvre is expected to yield hundreds of millions of pounds more of revenue hidden from the Exchequer by wealthy individuals.
The foreign banks chosen are those thought most likely to yield the largest number of possible tax evaders, but Stephen Camm of PwC said he expected the Revenue to adopt the same approach to all of the 500-odd banks with a UK presence.
The Revenue sent a memorandum to advisers this week saying its objective “will be to obtain information from a new tranche of financial institutions, using the same legal powers as applied to the first five banks.
“The intention of the new exercise will be to provide an opportunity for account holders to inform us of their own accord, if they have unpaid tax or duties and to settle their debts in a similar way to the original offshore disclosure facility.”
The new amnesty is likely to levy penalties of 15-20 per cent, significantly more than the 10 per cent levied in last year’s amnesty but much less than the 100 per cent maximum. Last year’s amnesty yielded less than expected but proved highly cost-effective for the Revenue.
Legal battles are looming over the banks’ willingness to disclose details about some customers. Unlike the high street banks which were the target of the Revenue’s last name-gathering campaign, some of the institutions do not hold the names of potential evaders in the UK.
Officials have told advisers that they believe they will be able to get round strict Swiss secrecy laws, which make it a criminal offence to divulge client information.
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Citi cuts 52,000 more jobs
By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: November 17 2008 14:17 | Last updated: November 18 2008 01:18
Citigroup took radical action on Monday to cushion the blows of the financial turmoil and revive its flagging share price, announcing plans to axe 52,000 jobs, or one in seven employees, and slash costs by about $10bn (£6.6bn).
The moves, unveiled by chief executive Vikram Pandit in a meeting with staff, are a dramatic escalation of Citi’s efforts to deal with a crisis that has forced it to record a loss in each of the past four quarters. The company’s poor performance and continued slide in its shares have raised the pressure on Mr Pandit amid simmering internal disagreements and a boardroom revolt over Citi’s failure to buy Wachovia, a US regional lender.
Citi’s shares have lost nearly three-quarters of their value in the past year. They fell 6.6 per cent to $8.89 on Monday after it warned that next year would be “difficult”.
In a further sign of Citi’s fall from grace, a regulatory filing showed that Carl Icahn, the activist investor who targets companies whose shares are in the doldrums and often agitates for strategic changes, held a small holding of 800,000 shares.
Citi has suffered more than $50bn in writedowns and credit provisions since the crisis began. In the first nine months of the year, the US financial services giant announced plans to cut 23,000 jobs as the credit crunch took a severe toll on its investment banking and consumer businesses. Monday’s cuts will be in addition to these.
About half of the redundancies will be in businesses Citi is selling, including its German retail banking operations. The rest will come from cuts in existing businesses, including Citi’s investment banking operations in New York, London and Hong Kong. Back-office jobs will also be reduced.
Mr Pandit said the new cuts would be completed “in the near term”, bringing total staff to 300,000 – the lowest in nearly three years. “That’s a tough message,” he said, according to people who listened to his “town hall” meeting with staff. “This is probably the single toughest part of my job here . . . We’re not doing that because we want to, but because we have to.”
Mr Pandit, who took over in December after the ousting of Chuck Prince, said expenses in 2009 would be about $52bn, down from $62bn this year – a 20 per cent fall on the record reached in the last quarter of 2007.
Citi on Monday classified $80bn of toxic assets as “held for investment” – an accounting treatment that means it will not have to take quarterly writedowns.
Citi said more than $120bn in securitised assets held in off-balance sheet vehicles would come back on to its books due to a recent accounting change. Citi will have to use capital to cover these assets and said it was “planning for these eventualities”. Citi also said its maximum exposure to $406bn in assets held in other off-balance sheet entities could total $131bn.
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Paulson hedge fund buys into mortgage securities
By Henny Sender in New York
Published: November 17 2008 23:34 | Last updated: November 17 2008 23:34
John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who was called before Congress last week to discuss the big profits he made by foreseeing the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, has started to buy securities backed by residential mortgages.
Mr Paulson’s move marks the latest example of a famously bearish investor shifting gears to profit from depressed prices in the global credit markets.
US residential mortgage securities fell in value last week after Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, said that the federal government had decided against buying toxic assets as part of its $700bn troubled asset relief programme (Tarp).
John Paulson, who is not related to the Treasury secretary, has told his investors that he started buying troubled mortgage-backed securities at the end of last week, hoping to capitalise on price falls that followed the Treasury announcement.
Mr Paulson, who has $36bn under management, was scheduled to hold a dinner and wine-tasting at New York’s Metropolitan Club on Monday night so that he could brief his investors on his plans.
According to Alpha Magazine, Mr Paulson made $3.7bn in 2007, reflecting the success of his strategy – begun in 2006 – of betting on a collapse of the subprime mortgage market. At the end of the third quarter of this year, his funds were up 15-25 per cent. His funds also made profits in October, his investors say.
For several months Mr Paulson has been considering investing in distressed subprime mortgage securities, financial firms and debt used to back private equity deals.
He estimated there are $10,000bn in total in such assets.
He signalled a potential new direction on October 1 by launching his Paulson Recovery Fund, which will take equity stakes in financial institutions. He also has moved to start a real estate fund.
However, Mr Paulson has been careful to avoid moving into distressed markets too early. For example, he refused in April when approached to invest alongside TPG in Washington Mutual. The debt and equity of WaMu was wiped out when it was taken over by JPMorgan in September.
In a letter to investors at the end of the third quarter, Mr. Paulson said his strategy was “to reduce leverage, maintain market exposure and maintain short credit bias”. He said: “The majority of our gains came from short positions in the equities of declining financials and CDS [credit default swaps] on financials. Generally our short exposure has been reduced as many of the companies we were short have failed.”
Mr. Paulson’s plans come at a time when other leading investors, including Jeff Aronson at Centerbridge Partners and Bruce Karsh at Oaktree Capital, are wading into the market for discounted leveraged buyout loans.
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Fears over covert DNA database
By Stephen Fidler
Published: November 17 2008 23:30 | Last updated: November 17 2008 23:30
Public US documents confirm that information on suspected terrorists from Iraq and Afghanistan risks being lost due to delays at the database
Valuable intelligence on thousands of suspected terrorists risks being lost because of backlogs at a little-known US federal government database that processes DNA samples gathered in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.
The unfinished work at the database – part of a classified intelligence partnership of military, intelligence and law enforcement agencies – has been referred to in public documents but has not been openly discussed by US government officials.
The Department of Justice sought funding this year for the Federal Bureau of Investigation, one of the agencies taking part in the programme, to automate processing of DNA material.
The FBI can process only two samples every three days using manual methods, yet the database has been receiving 9,000 samples a year.
The programme would “likely lose valuable intelligence from the lag time required to analyse these samples”, said the 2009 funding request to Congress.
Steven Aftergood, director of the government secrecy project at the Federation of American Scientists, said the database was “truly shrouded in mystery”.
“Not only is the name of the database almost never cited, but the role of DNA collection in terrorist identification is not publicly discussed even where one would expect it,” he said.
One exception was a March 2007 report from the Defense Science Board, a panel of outside experts that advises the Pentagon, which said 17,000 samples had been handled by the database while 30,000 awaited processing.
In 2005, according to a separate Pentagon document, 7,000 samples were processed and 10,000 were “inbound” from Iraq and Afghanistan.
The searchable database has been identified by several names, including the Joint Federal Agencies Intelligence DNA Database.
It is operated in part by private contractors and is an offshoot of the Armed Forces DNA Identification Laboratory in Rockville, Maryland, that identifies remains of soldiers missing in action.
The Defense Science Board report said the idea for the covert repository and database of DNA samples for identifying and tracking terrorist subjects, which it dubbed “Black Helix”, first “surfaced” in February 2001 – a month after President George W. Bush took office and before the September 11 2001 attacks.
People who have followed the programme say information about the military’s DNA collection activities disappeared from the Pentagon website in 2003, when a legislative push by the Bush administration that included a proposal to create a DNA database for terror suspects failed.
That failure meant that the FBI could continue storing DNA data only from US adults convicted of crimes and not from suspects. Under US law that restriction would not apply to foreigners.
Some terrorism specialists have called for greater use of DNA in an effort to track terrorist associates.
In testimony to the House Intelligence Committee in April, Peter Bergen of the New America Foundation urged for the creation of an integrated US database, including DNA data, as part of an effort “to identify friends and/or family members who brought the suicide attackers into the jihad”.
The idea that DNA could be used to establish “guilt by association”, coupled with the lack of transparency about the way DNA is handled by the military, has the potential to alarm those concerned with the well-being of detainees.
In a 2005 article in the Lancet, Robin Coupland and colleagues from the International Committee of the Red Cross said best laboratory practice and protection of personal data were not high priorities for those building international DNA databases.
In cases where DNA was gathered from detainees, and others, they said that it was “far from clear what laws, if any, protect genetic data”. They also said people from whom DNA was being gathered were often very vulnerable.
When contacted by the Financial Times, Dr Coupland said: “Some detained people have expressed concerns to our officials about their DNA samples”.
In keeping with Red Cross practice, he refused to elaborate on where these detainees were or which government was detaining them.
The Department of Defense repeatedly refused to clarify the procedures and protocols applying to the collection, custody and exploitation of the samples and the database.
Lt Col Mark Wright, a Pentagon spokesman, said the issue was “fairly sensitive. We do use identification measures etc but everyone’s very reluctant [to talk about it] because of the way it’s used in an intelligence manner you run into the classified gamut.”
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Italian dash for oil sounds rural alarm
By Guy Dinmore
Published: November 17 2008 17:51 | Last updated: November 17 2008 17:51
Empty deserts conceal the oil wealth of the Middle East, and frozen wastelands cover Russia’s. Unfortunately for the inhabitants of Basilicata in southern Italy, Europe’s largest onshore oilfield lies beneath forests, farmland and ancient communities.
Wolves, deer and the occasional bear wander through mountain ranges designated as a national park, where clattering oil rigs rise incongruously through tree-tops.
Trenches carved through oak and beech take pipelines down to a complex in Viggiano where gas is separated and the oil piped a further 130km to a refinery. A sulphurous stench writhes up to medieval hilltop villages where shuttered windows and crumbling masonry testify to a population in flight. Not surprisingly, environmentalists and residents are alarmed by the plans of oil companies – Eni, Total, Shell and Exxon Mobil – to double production from this highly profitable field and supply some 10 per cent of Italy’s total oil needs within several years.
Activists campaigned for 15 hard years to establish the Val D’Agri area as a national park. The legislation finally came into effect last March, forbidding mineral extraction. In the meantime Eni, Italy’s part state-owned energy giant, had already built half a dozen wellheads inside the park and more outside.
Concerns were heightened this month when Stefania Prestigiacomo, environment minister and industrialist, rejected the regional government’s choice for park guardian and appointed her own commissioner.
Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right government is also preparing legislation that would strip regions like Basilicata of their veto power over infrastructure plans. The goal is to fix Italy’s “nimby” – not in my backyard – reputation among foreign investors.
“We can’t stay stuck for years, waiting for approval that might not come,” says Claudio Descalzi, president of Assomineraria, an association of oil and mining companies. Industry wants authorisation processes to be clear and brief, says Mr Descalzi, who is also Eni’s head of exploration and development.
The turning of the tide in favour of big industrial projects began when the Green party, whose members were key figures in the previous centre-left government and blamed for blocking many plans, was routed in parliamentary elections last April.
Local politicians mostly support the expansion plans. Critics say their sensitivities are dulled by a flow of royalties from Eni. While bringing income to a poor region, the money also fosters “clientelismo” – political patronage – and is not always well spent.
Despite promises of jobs and investment, the village of Grumento Nova has lost a quarter of its inhabitants. Locals blame the exodus on pollution from the nearby Viggiano complex and a shortage of work.
Pino Enrico Laveglia, the local doctor, is suing Eni because of what he believes is a significant increase in respiratory infections and tumours caused by pollution. “The arrival of these gentlemen brought an environmental disaster,” he says. “There used to be no fog here. Now there is a blue smog and it is not fairies from the woods.”
But he has no hope his lawsuit will succeed and says people are too submissive and divided by ancient hatreds to protest.
Local people tend to tell the same story – the young leave to find work; “rotten” mayors waste the royalties; and pollution erodes the mainstays of agriculture and tourism. Great expectations were raised when significant oil production began a decade ago, but not met. Few trust the pollution monitoring systems. Smiling grimly they say Basilicata has “sacrificed” itself for the rest of Italy, but their compatriots don’t even know it.
As a cash cow for the oil companies and governments, development seems inevitable.
Eni’s operating costs are less than $3 per barrel, and about $8 including development. Royalties are paid at a rate of seven per cent of market prices to the regional government, of which 15 per cent goes to the localities. Eni said by the end of 2007 it had paid $466m (€368m, £311m), indicating gross production worth $6.65bn.
Eni, working with Shell Italia, is producing about 75,000 barrels per day in Basilicata. This is set to increase to 104,000 b/d by 2010. A second phase, awaiting official approval, could add 30,000 b/d.
All new wells will be outside the national park and pollution is within European Union limits, Eni says. Wellheads are located underground, once exploratory drilling is complete.
Total, Shell and Exxon also have approval to drill for oil and build an oil centre, targeting production of 50,000 b/d by 2011.
Italy’s national oil consumption is slowly declining and reached 1.75m b/d in 2007. Academics suggest that by raising false expectations and failing to spell out the full impact, business and politicians fuelled a long-standing suspicion of authority among locals. The ensuing sense of regret and distrust is resistant to reason.
For example, epidemiologists say cancers could not have developed over just 10 years because of the oil industry. Sociologists point out that much of southern Italy is witnessing emigration.
Giovanni Figliuolo, a Basilicata university professor, says an intensive biodiversity study of Eni’s operations broadly concluded that there was a slight impact on immediate surroundings. He argues it is even possible that, with the right approach, the energy industry could have a net positive impact on Basilicata’s biodiversity.
Asked if the oil riches are a blessing or, as many say, a curse, Vito De Filippo, centre-left governor of Basilicata who has backed the oil expansion plans, replies: “To call it a curse is too much. Basilicata had to do it for the good of the country but the returns and economic development fell short of expectations.”
Meanwhile, a new threat to this rural idyll is emerging in the shape of a proposed nuclear waste dump needed to relaunch Italy’s nuclear industry. Rome’s intention to strip the regions of their political veto would facilitate that process.
“It would be an act of war,” Mr De Filippo says. “They would have to do it with arms.”
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Russia to raise import duties
By Alan Beattie in London
Published: November 17 2008 18:14 | Last updated: November 17 2008 18:14
Russia said on Monday that it would push ahead with sharp rises in import duties in the near future in spite of signing the Group of 20 communiqué that promised not to introduce protectionist measures for a year.
Dmitry Pankin, deputy finance minister, said Moscow would increase tariffs on imported cars, a move that had already been planned to protect Russian car producers. Russia has also announced a general review of trade agreements, including commitments made as part of its application to join the World Trade Organisation. The review may result in duties being increased and import quotas for sensitive products being cut.
Mr Pankin said there was no contradiction between Russia’s actions and the communiqué it signed as a member of the G20 leading economies in Washington on Saturday. The agreement was portrayed by the UK and US as a powerful statement against protectionism.
“The wording is sufficiently fluid . . . The formulation is careful,” Mr Pankin told reporters. “No one said that anyone should scrap existing barriers or go back on existing decisions. There were no calls for this.”
The US and UK governments did not return requests for comment. The European Commission said the news was not particularly troubling, as the duties would cover only a small part of trade.
But independent trade experts said Moscow’s actions revealed the flimsiness of the G20’s pledge to refrain from new trade protections in the next year. Fredrik Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, a free-trade Brussels think-tank, said: “I am not surprised at all. I don’t think the G20 was a meaningful exercise in trying to tie down its governments’ trade policies.”
Those present at the meeting said the communiqué would permit countries to impose so-called anti-dumping duties and other emergency blocks against imports. Such actions have increased rapidly in recent months as commodity prices have fallen, making it easier for companies to argue that they are being hit by dumped imports.
Mr Erixon said that such emergency actions, together with state aid to politically sensitive industries, were supplanting permanent import tariffs as the main tool of trade protectionism, and were not covered by the G20 statement.
Saturday’s G20 communiqué said: “We underscore the critical importance of rejecting protectionism and not turning inward in times of financial uncertainty. In this regard, within the next 12 months, we will refrain from raising new barriers to investment or to trade in goods and services.”
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Shifting away from export-led growth
Published: November 18 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 18 2008 02:00
It is official: Japan has followed Germany into recession, as defined by two quarters of negative growth. China's rate of expansion also looks set to slow more than previously expected. What do these countries have in common? All rely on exports to keep their economies going, while their own consumers are reluctant to spend.
But avoiding the sort of profligate spending of the US and UK has not saved Japan, Germany and China from credit bust fallout. Finding buyers for their exports is proving hard in a global economic downturn. To strengthen their economies, policymakers have to encourage their people to go shopping.
Shifting away from exports would not only address imbalances within these countries. Global imbalances, where countries with current account surpluses such as Japan, Germany and China helped finance the credit boom of deficit countries, could also at last be addressed.
In all three countries, governments hold the key. Fiscal policy has to be expanded but, owing to the vast differences between these economies, packages will differ.
Japan may be in the most difficult position. Monetary policy cannot offer much relief with interest rates at 0.3 per cent, and fiscal policy faces constraints with gross debt around 170 per cent of gross domestic product, the highest of any rich nation. Last month the government unveiled a $51bn fiscal stimulus package. That was a step in the right direction. But what is needed is to convince consumers that fiscal policy will be looser over the coming years. Now is not the time to raise taxes on consumption and trim healthcare and pension benefits.
The German government has more room to manoeuvre, with a projected budget surplus for this year. It has to seize the opportunity and cut taxes so that consumers, after years of stagnating wages and rising taxes, have more left to spend. The European Central Bank should also cut interest rates further. This would offer additional short-term relief, but would not help wean the economy off exports.
With low government debt, Beijing can afford a large fiscal stimulus. But the package announced last week fails where it is most needed. Chinese consumers will start spending only when they feel secure about the provision of education and health services by the state.
Different as Japan, Germany and China are, their authorities should adopt policies with a common aim: encouraging people to spend. That would support the economies during the downturn, and might also encourage longer-term domestic and global structural adjustment.
-----------------------------
US turns screw on UBS in offshore tax haven crackdown
By Haig Simonian
Published: November 14 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 14 2008 02:00
Raoul Weil should have been celebrating his 49th birthday yesterday. But instead of cele-brating with friends, the head of private banking for the world's biggest wealth manager found himself the piece in a much bigger game.
This week, Mr Weil, who has spent virtually his entire career at UBS and its predecessor, was indicted by a US Federal Grand Jury on the charge of conspiracy.
The move was the most stunning step in a US investigation into whether the Swiss group helped rich American clients evade tax. The inquiry, by the Department of Justice and the Internal Revenue Service, contends that UBS bankers in Geneva, Zurich and Lugano helped American clients evade tax in various ways, including, for the richest, complex shell companies to hide their identities.
The investigation has already involved the arrest of one mid-ranking former UBS banker, who has pleaded guilty, and the detention as a "material witness" earlier this year of Martin Liechti, the former head of offshore wealth management for North and South America. He has since returned to Switzerland.
The American authorities have diligently gathered evidence, as revealed in this week's 11-page indictment and an earlier 110-page report by a special Senate investigating committee.
But the action against Mr Weil, who has stepped down and is replaced for the moment by Marten Hoekstra, his US-based deputy, represents a major escalation.
This week's indictment also refers to unspecified other "co-conspirators . . . at the highest levels of management". For members of the UBS former offshore US team, who wish to remain anonymous, that suggests the US authorities are poised to strike higher up the echelons.
UBS has been left struggling. Stricken by almost $48bn of writedowns in the credit crisis, massive losses and a plummeting share price, the bank has been seriously weakened. Although its offshore business with US clients only accounted for about 2 per cent of private banking assets, UBS can hardly afford further damage to its reputation.
But many observers believe the mounting US pressure is part of a wider campaign aimed at Switzerland itself. Carl Levin, the US senator whose permanent sub-committee on investigations has been prominent in US attempts to crack down on tax havens, made that clear in remarks after Mr Weil's indictment.
"Today's indictment. . . sends an overdue message that the United States will no longer tolerate tax haven banks helping US clients hide money from the IRS," Mr Levin said.
The US authorities want Switzerland to co-operate under the judicial assistance provisions of the double taxation treaties between the countries and provide client names. But progress has been slower than the US would like. For the Swiss, no client names can be provided unless the US authorities can prove such customers committed tax fraud - a crime which in Switzerland justifies the lifting of bank secrecy. But tax evasion is only a civil office, and does not qualify for the same treatment.
The US authorities appear to be increasingly frustrated that no names have been supplied, amid suggestions of Swiss stonewalling. Bern replies it is simply going by the book. UBS, meanwhile, is stuck in the middle.
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Mexico, Indonesia sign oil cooperation deal
AFP
Mexican President Felipe Calderon and his Indonesian counterpart Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono announced an oil cooperation agreement between their state-run oil companies, after a meeting Monday.
The agreement established cooperation in "development, scientific and technological investigation, and exploration and drilling" between Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and Pertamina, Indonesia's oil company, said Calderon.
Pemex is the 11th largest national oil company in the world, while Indonesia is a member of OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Yudhoyono, who arrived here from Washington after attending the Group of 20 economic meeting in Washington over the weekend, said he was also seeking to increase economic ties between the two countries.
Calderon, who also attended the G20 crisis talks, said another cooperation agreement in agriculture, education and diplomatic training had also been signed with the visiting president.
The two leaders will also travel to Lima for next weekend's summit of the 21-nation Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) bloc.
Yudhoyono will first visit Brazil for three days beginning Tuesday, when he will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and sign a strategic partnership with South America's largest nation.
----------------------------
Barclays offers shareholders slice of capital hike
Reuters
Bank Barclays moved to quell shareholder anger on Tuesday, offering them a slice of a 5.8 billion pound capital injection by Middle Eastern investors.
Barclays said Qatar Holding LLC and Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan would each make up to 250 million pounds of reserve capital instruments available to existing shareholders in the bank in a bookbuilding process.
The bank said no bonuses would be paid to executive directors for 2008 and confirmed an earlier Reuters report that all board members would offer themselves for re-election at the company's annual general meeting in April 2009.
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11:48 GMT, Tuesday, 18 November 2008
Judge pulls out of Franco probes
Breaking News
A top Spanish judge has pulled out of investigations into the fate of more than 100,000 people who vanished during the civil war and Franco dictatorship.
They say Baltasar Garzon complied with prosecutors' demands that inquiries should be handled by courts in regions where crimes were allegedly committed.
Judge Garzon announced last month that the opening of mass graves from Spain's 1936-39 civil war could start.
But Spain's top criminal court later suspended the exhumations.
It imposed the halt to allow it to rule on whether Judge Garzon had the competence to launch the inquiry.
-----------------------------------------
0 GMT, Monday, 17 November 2008
Syria nuclear clues 'not damning'
Mohamed ElBaradei
The director of the UN atomic watchdog, has said a report he is due to present later this week on Syrian nuclear activity will "not be conclusive".
"We still have work to do," the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, said in Dubai.
"We need more co-operation from Syria... We need also co-operation from Israel," Mr ElBaradei told reporters.
Recent unconfirmed reports said the IAEA had found traces of atomic material on a site bombed by Israel.
"We won't be able to reach a quick conclusion unless we have credible information.
"There was uranium but it doesn't mean there was a reactor... It's not highly enriched uranium," Mr ElBaradei added.
The US has said the target of Israel's raid in September 2007 was a secret nuclear reactor built with North Korean help that was nearing completion.
Syrian officials said the site was a disused military building and accused US intelligence agencies of fabricating evidence against their country.
IAEA inspectors visited the bombed al-Kibar site in June, where they took samples that appear to have contained the radioactive material, but Damascus has blocked any follow-up trips.
Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Muallim dismissed as politically motivated last week's press disclosures, attributed to unnamed diplomats linked to the UN watchdog.
He said uranium could have come from munitions used by Israel to bomb the site.
Damascus had said it will co-operate with the IAEA inquiry only if it does not threaten its national security
--------------------------------
Monday, 17 November 2008
Israeli 'mafia' boss assassinated
By Paul Wood
BBC News, Jerusalem
Police inspect the car Don Alperon was driving when the attack happened
One of the leading figures in Israel's mafia-style organised crime gangs has been assassinated in a car bomb attack.
Yaakov Alperon, known as "Don Alperon", was driving his saloon car through a northern suburb of Tel Aviv when the vehicle was torn apart by a huge blast.
Two bystanders were also slightly injured in the explosion, one a 13-year-old boy waiting at a bus stop.
The attack has raised concerns that an Israeli mob war could be about to spin out of control.
Civilian fears
Little was left of the car after the explosion, which was apparently set off by remote control just before midday.
Don Alperon's body was seen slumped over the steering wheel.
A police spokesman said, with understatement, that the security forces were now assessing the situation to see what would develop in Tel Aviv.
This is the latest and most serious attack in an Israeli mob war which some fear may once again be coming to the boil.
That is worrying because of the lack of concern shown by the mobsters for civilian casualties.
Anti-tank missiles, grenades and bombs have all been used in Israeli mob hits.
In one failed attempt to kill a rival gang leader in 2003, three people died when a bomb explosion hit a passing bus.
In another attack, a whole building was destroyed while the intended target, another mafia leader, walked away.
Don Alperon was a flamboyant figure known for dating famous and beautiful women from Israeli show-business.
He was said to run Tel Aviv's third-largest crime family.
If Tel Aviv is in for another period of bloody rivalry between the city's mafia gangs, residents will want to know if the police are capable of stopping it.
That has not always seemed to be the case in the past.
--------------------------------
Goldman, Morgan Stanley Squeeze Exchanges With New Platforms
By Joyce Moullakis and Nandini Sukumar
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and investment banks in Europe are using the early success of new trading platforms they have backed to push exchange fees lower.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley, whose profit in the first three quarters is down 44 percent from last year, and brokers at firms such as Merrill Lynch & Co. and Citigroup Inc. have demanded European exchanges cut trading tariffs. The companies have won new clout by backing alternate trading platforms such as Chi-X Europe Ltd. and Turquoise and by urging rival bourses to set up shop in Europe.
``Banks have been angry for some time about fees,'' said Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York and an expert on exchanges. ``They've pointed out that volumes have grown and fees haven't come down. And in an environment like this, you can expect them to ratchet up pressure. They definitely have more leverage now with the likes of Turquoise and Chi-X.''
A year after the European Union's Markets in Financial Instruments Directive made competition possible, new entrants are gaining traction, offering some cheer for banks as the industry confronts its worst year since the Great Depression. At stake are billions of dollars in trading revenue.
London-based Turquoise, owned by the biggest investment banks and run by ex-Morgan Stanley executive Eli Lederman, drew 4.8 percent of trading of FTSE 100 stocks yesterday, two months after launching, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in London. Chi-X, a unit of Instinet Europe Ltd. that began operating last year and is also backed by investment banks, is the most successful of the new platforms. It captured 15.7 percent of trading in FTSE 100 stocks yesterday.
Bats, Nasdaq OMX
Citigroup, the fourth-biggest U.S. bank by market value, said it executed 40 percent of its U.K. trades last month on Chi-X, 12 percent on Turquoise and the rest on the London Stock Exchange. The bank owns stakes in both Chi-X and Turquoise.
Two U.S. exchanges that began operating in Europe during the third quarter are also putting pressure on established bourses. Bats Trading Inc., a three-year-old company that grew into the No. 3 U.S. equity market, says it plans to be ``aggressive'' in winning at least a 10 percent market share in the region. It accounted for 0.5 percent of trading in FTSE 100 stocks yesterday, according to Sanford Bernstein.
Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., the bourse handling the most U.S. share trades, cut some fees by more half on Oct. 23, five weeks after opening its pan-European trading platform. It's now cheaper to trade an LSE-listed stock through Nasdaq OMX Europe than directly on LSE.
Breaking `Monopolies'
As a result of the competition, London Stock Exchange Group Plc, NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse AG have each cut some fees. LSE has changed the way it charges brokers, and NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse plan alternate trading platforms of their own. The NYSE Euronext platform, called NYSE Arca Europe, will trade 400 to 500 stocks that aren't currently listed on the company's four European bourses. It is aimed at taking business from both LSE and Deutsche Bourse.
``Exchanges were monopolies,'' said Ashok Krishnan, managing director of execution services at Merrill Lynch in London. ``That chain has now been broken. They have to react differently.''
That's what LSE did when Nasdaq OMX Europe lowered fees. On Nov. 1, the U.K.'s biggest exchange said it will charge alternative-trading platforms for doing deals on its market. LSE, which earlier cut fees for brokers who add liquidity, said it would charge 1 basis point on a trade that is ``business on behalf'' of other markets.
LSE's new rivals are offering to route traders through LSE if they can't find a match for orders on their markets.
Winners and Losers
``We've wrung some of the efficiencies out, like speed and new fees, but there's more to go,'' said Rob Maher, head of advanced execution services sales for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Credit Suisse Group AG, which owns stakes in Chi-X and Turquoise. ``Looking at volumes, it's going to be a battle. The current environment means we will see who the winners and losers will be much more quickly. It is unlikely one will see any of the major multilateral trading facilities disappearing anytime soon, as they have deep pockets and serious backers.''
Banks worldwide are reeling from $710 billion of writedowns and credit losses since last year and more than 158,000 job cuts. Investment banks and brokerages have been hit on three fronts at once, as global equity-market valuations slump, institutional clients seek lower brokerage commissions and brokers are forced by technological changes to trade more to execute orders.
`Squeeze the Vendor'
``Overall the banks are getting squeezed, so they squeeze the vendor,'' Christopher Concannon, Nasdaq's head of transaction services, said in an interview. ``It's business. You're trying to control your costs. And through this wonderful margin goes a red line that's exchange fees.''
The seven largest U.S. brokerage firms posted equity- trading income of $9.69 billion in the second quarter, the lowest level in 18 months, according to data compiled by Standard & Poor's Equity Research Ltd. Their combined equity trading revenue peaked at $12.5 billion in the first quarter of 2007, S&P said.
Commissions earned by brokers trading European stocks are also declining, down about 5 percent this year compared with 2007. Most of the reduction stems from a drop in rates paid by institutions -- an average of 15 basis points on so-called high- touch trades and 5 basis points on electronic trades, according to a September report by Greenwich Associates in Greenwich, Connecticut. A basis point is 0.01 percent.
`Loss Leader'
As trading algorithms and computer systems grow more sophisticated, orders are sliced into smaller and smaller pieces so they can more easily find the best match. This means that while the value of trades is declining, brokers are trading more to execute them. That's part of the reason exchanges are enjoying a boom in volumes, which translates into higher costs for brokers.
``The equity trading businesses have become a loss leader,'' said Richard Bove, an analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. in Lutz, Florida, who has followed brokerages for 26 years. Bove expects the industry's equity-trading revenue to decline by as much as 15 percent this year.
That has intensified pressure on exchanges. LSE charges about 0.65 basis points a trade, according to Mamoun Tazi, an analyst at MF Global Securities Ltd. in London. That compares with 0.2 basis points and 0.4 basis points for the multilateral trading facilities, as the new entrants are called.
Fee Reductions
``Cash equity is a commoditized business, which means that price will be the main differentiator,'' Tazi said. ``The competitive advantage of liquidity was reduced by the introduction of the new regulatory regime and recent advances in technology. This means the LSE will lose significant market share.''
Tazi said LSE's earnings may fall 42 percent in the next three years because of greater competition and lower volumes.
The increased competition ``is timely,'' said Andrew Silverman, managing director of electronic trading at Morgan Stanley. ``We will see more pressure on exchanges to reduce costs.'' Fee reductions need to be ``deeper,'' he said.
Bryan Koplin, Goldman's executive director of electronic- transaction services in London, made a similar point.
``Exchanges, just like all providers, need to demonstrate value for services rendered,'' Koplin said.
LSE Reaction
LSE announced price cuts on Aug. 1 that it said would make it ``the cheapest trading venue in Europe for major users.'' The exchange said it will stop charging per trade, and instead will look to the value of the order and also offer incentives to some traders using its electronic order book.
``We believe we are competitive and intend to remain competitive,'' said Patrick Humphris, a spokesman for the exchange. ``We recently moved to a maker-taker fee structure, which offers substantial discounts and rebates for the highest volume clients. There may be some venues that seek to offer their services at less than economic rates, but this clearly isn't sustainable in the longer term.''
Deutsche Boerse, Europe's biggest exchange by market value, announced on Aug. 26 that it would cut fees for algorithmic traders and offer new clearing packages, moves that may trim as much as 35 million euros ($44 million) from revenue.
The announcement came a week after the Swiss Stock Exchange decided to lower tariffs by as much as 30 percent on its London SWX Europe market, where the biggest Swiss stocks were listed. Last week the exchange shut the market amid competition.
`Regulation, Not Competition'
NYSE Euronext, the world's largest owner of stock exchanges, also said it has cut fees for traders using several of the company's bourses.
The price cuts have pleased James Laing, who oversees 6 billion pounds ($9 billion) as head of pan-European equities at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London and who says he isn't sold on the new platforms.
``I'm delighted trading costs are falling,'' Laing said. ``But it's nice to have big pools of liquidity, and I'm not sure fragmentation helps. Regulation, not competition, might do the same thing.''
--------------------------
Pound Drop `Significant,' Not Yet Crisis, Lamont Says (Update1)
By Brian Swint
Enlarge Image/Details
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont said the pound's drop will help the British economy as long as it doesn't turn into a ``run'' on the currency.
``Plainly there's been a very significant depreciation, I'm not sure that qualifies as a run,'' Lamont, finance minister during Britain's last currency crisis in 1992, said in an interview yesterday. ``There are opportunities when a currency depreciates. But as so often when you have these situations, what starts as a small move can quickly become, quote, a run.''
The British currency's 24 percent decline against the dollar this year raises the specter of September 1992, when Lamont failed to prevent a sell-off in the pound that pushed it out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts predicted yesterday that the currency will extend its current slump to the lowest level since 1985.
Investors have sold the pound on concern about the size of a U.K. recession and the prospect that Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government may ramp up spending, widening the biggest budget gap since World War II.
``If we are at risk of having a crisis, it's a funding crisis, funding our deficit,'' said Lamont, a member of the opposition Conservative Party, who was attending the Money Transfers London 2008 conference. ``I do not think they should have a massive stimulus package, I don't think we can afford it.''
Budget Deficit
The U.K. Treasury had a budget gap of 37.6 billion pounds ($56 billion) in the first half of its fiscal year. Since March, Brown's Labour Party government has delivered tax cuts and spending increases worth 4.8 billion pounds to give relief to low- income earners, delay an increase in fuel duties and to help homeowners with mortgages and stamp-duty taxes.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will announce further measures in his pre-budget report on Nov. 24.
``If we are to have some massive, Keynesian stimulus, you could have figures that could dramatically shoot us up the league of indebted countries,'' Lamont said. ``There is a risk that long-term interest rates may shoot up.''
The pound traded at $1.5007 and 84.07 pence against the euro as of 10:33 a.m. in London. The currency will drop to $1.28 and a record low of 92 pence per euro, JPMorgan said.
Lamont defended George Osborne, spokesman for the opposition Conservative party on economics, who was criticized by Brown for saying that the government risks creating ``a proper sterling collapse, a run on the pound.'' Brown said Osborne needed to be more ``responsible'' in his comments.
`Unfairly Criticized'
``Osborne has been unfairly criticized and he was only stating some things that had been said by many other people,'' Lamont said. He also said the pound's slide is no reason to reconsider adopting the euro, now shared by 15 European countries.
``I'm not in any way an enthusiast for joining the euro,'' Lamont said. ``After all, until the last few months, people would have pointed to the amazing stability of sterling. We haven't had any bad experiences because of being out of the euro.''
The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate fell below the European Central Bank's rate for the first time since the euro started in 1999 this month. The U.K. rate is now 3 percent, compared with 3.25 percent in the euro area.
The U.K.'s inflation rate had the biggest drop in at least 11 years in October, giving the central bank room to cut borrowing costs further. Inflation slowed to 4.5 percent from 5.2 percent in September, the statistics office said today.
Recession Forecast
The U.K. economy will contract the most in almost three decades next year, the Confederation of British Industry, Britain's biggest business lobby, forecast yesterday. The euro area entered its first recession since 1999 in the third quarter.
Lamont served under Prime Minister John Major as chancellor from 1990 and 1993, overseeing the country's last recession. He led the government's defense of the pound against speculators betting on its exit from the peg against other European currencies.
Lamont announced an increase in the benchmark interest rate to 15 percent on ``Black Wednesday,'' Sept. 16, 1992, before the government abandoned the effort the same day and allowed the pound to drop out of the ERM. The currency lost 9.8 percent that week.
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