Warning of worst decline in 20 years

Warning of worst decline in 20 years

By Peter Marsh and Norma Cohen

Published: November 30 2008 22:51 | Last updated: November 30 2008 22:51

As the Bank of England prepares a further cut in interest rates this week, the widespread withdrawal of credit from the nation’s businesses threatens the worst recession in 20 years for the manufacturing sector, a leading industry association warns on Monday.

Mervyn King, the Bank’s governor, has identified the resumption of normal lending patterns as the single most important task for monetary policymakers.

Economists expect the Bank’s monetary policy committee to cut interest rates by at least half a percentage point on Thursday, with a significant minority expecting an even bigger reduction.

The EEF manufacturers’ organisation, which on Monday warns that manufacturing will contract by 5 per cent next year, followed by a further decline of about 1 per cent the year after, has called for a full percentage-point cut. Steve Radley, chief economist for the EEF, says this would mean that the sector – which most economists believe is already in a recession – would not pull out of contraction until some way through 2010.

The EEF, whose forecast for 2009 is based on feedback from more than 800 member companies, says the sector faces the loss of 90,000 jobs next year with an unspecified number of companies going into liquidation. Peter Spencer, professor of economics at York University, said the difficulties for many companies were being exacerbated by many banks being “paranoid and paralysed” on the issue of lending to businesses that they believed were in the hardest-hit parts of the economy.

“A lot of banks are putting everything on hold and starving the commercial sector of cash,” Prof Spencer said. “The banks have been given approximately £500bn of cash by the government to help them recapitalise, but my impression is that many of them are sitting on the money rather than lending it out.

“It could be that to jerk the system into action the government may have to consider a full nationalisation of the banks to make sure that the money goes to the parts of the economy where it is needed.”

Mr Radley said full bank nationalisation should be considered “only as a last resort”. But he added that this could be the “next step” to be tried if efforts by the government to push banks to step up lending to stricken companies failed to come to anything.

Lending data released on Monday will shed some light on the extent to which banks are making more credit available.

In recent weeks Lord Mandelson, the business secretary, has expressed frustration at reports that some banks were failing to lend at reasonable levels to small and medium-sized companies, even after the massive recapitalisation of the banking system at taxpayers’ expense.

In its survey of members, the EEF said it found not all sectors were as hard hit as others – with some areas of industry such as automotive and construction materials being in a serious condition while others, such as medical equipment and energy systems, were in better shape.

-------------------------
08:54 GMT, Monday, 1 December 2008
UK 'closer' to adopting the euro
Jose Manuel Barroso

The UK is "closer than ever before" to joining the euro, according to the president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso.

Speaking on a French radio show, he said British politicians were considering the move because of the effects of the global credit crunch.

However Downing Street said its position on the euro remained the same.

In 1997 Gordon Brown set five economic tests which he had to judge were met before recommending UK euro entry.

The key test is whether the UK economy is coming together with those of countries in the eurozone and whether this can be sustained in the long-term. The second test, linked to this, is whether there is sufficient flexibility to cope with economic change.

The remaining three tests assess the impact of joining the euro on jobs, on foreign investment and on the financial services industry.

Mr Brown has been seen as less keen on the UK adopting of the euro than predecessor as prime minister Tony Blair.

Confidential conversations

Opinion polls have suggested that any vote on scrapping the pound and adopting the euro would be lost, and in the UK the currency has not been a significant political issue for years.

Mr Barroso acknowledged "the majority" of British people continued to oppose joining the eurozone.

But he said the recent economic uncertainty had made the currency a far more attractive option.

In the RTL radio/LCI television broadcast, the former prime minister of Portugal said: "We are now closer than ever before.

THE UK EURO TESTS

* Convergence with eurozone
* Enough flexibility to adapt
* Impact on jobs
* Impact on financial services
* Impact on foreign investment

UK euro debate (from 2003)

UK's five tests (from 2002)

"I'm not going to break the confidentiality of certain conversations, but some British politicians have already told me, 'If we had the euro, we would have been better off'. "

He said that the current poor economic situation had emphasised the importance of the euro and the UK but added he believed a move would not take place in the immediate future.

"I know that the majority in Britain are still opposed, but there is a period of consideration under way and the people who matter in Britain are currently thinking about it", he said.

The value of sterling compared with other currencies has fallen during the credit crunch, and the UK government has had to spend massively in recent months to try to support the economy.

'Awaiting decisions'

During the interview, Mr Barroso highlighted the situation in Denmark - an EU state which voted against joining the eurozone in 2000, but is now considering holding a new referendum on the single currency.

A Downing Street spokesman said: "We have no comment on this. Our position on the euro is the same - it has not changed."

Mr Barroso also said he expected the European Central Bank (ECB) to make a clear move to cut interest rates next week.

He said the conditions were right for a fall, but did not give further details adding: "I am awaiting decisions from the European Central Bank that go in this direction."

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, has said that the bank could cut rates in the coming week as long as there is evidence that inflation pressures have eased.

The European Union has called for a 200bn euro boost across Europe to help stimulate an economic recovery.

--------------------------
家賃滞納者の鍵替え家財処分　「追い出し屋」被害相次ぐ（1/2ページ）

2008年11月30日16時53分

　賃貸住宅の連帯保証を請け負う業者らが、家賃を滞納した入居者に強引に退去を迫る「追い出し屋」の被害が広がっている。被害者の多くは低所得者ら。弁護士らは「新手の貧困ビジネス」と批判し、救済に乗り出しているが、家賃保証業務を規制する法律はない。

　■思い出の品処分され

　「閉め出すぞ」。福岡市の女性（３８）は携帯電話の通話が耳から離れない。約３年前まで、１Ｋ、家賃約４万円のアパートに長女（１７）と住んでいた。家賃保証会社が連帯保証人になった。消費者金融などからの借金があり、家賃を滞納した。

　「取り立てが来たら、娘に嫌な思いをさせる」。女性は妹の自宅に一時避難した。まもなく鍵が交換され、会社から「荷物を預かる」と連絡が入った。１日千円の「保管料」を求められた。

　女性は滞納家賃を分納し、家財の返却を求めると、保証会社は「もうない」。七五三など娘の思い出が詰まった４冊のアルバムも失った。

　親族宅に身を寄せ、０６年秋、家賃約５万円のアパートに移った。入居時に東京の保証会社と契約を結んだ。勤め先のスーパーの時給は６００円台で、月収は１０万円余り。借金返済を優先させ、また家賃を滞納した。保証会社に「サラ金まで（車で）乗せてやろうか」と言われたという。女性は「家賃が払えなかった私が悪いけど、悔しい」。

　保証会社は「違法性があるとは思っていない」と説明する。

　■３０％近い遅延利息

　「荷物をまとめて出て行け」。１０月、大阪府柏原市の男性（６３）は保証会社からこう脅されたという。

　昨夏、家賃８万５千円のマンションに入った。約１０年前にエステ店を廃業し、借金が残った。「他人に迷惑をかけたくない」と、入居時に保証会社と契約を結んだ。９月の家賃を滞納すると、保証会社から玄関ドアに督促の紙が張られ、損害金５千円を請求された。

　契約書には「年率２９．２％の割合の遅延損害金」を求めるとあったが、消費者契約法の上限金利の年率１４．６％を超えており、司法書士は「無効だ」。保証会社は「契約書の文言は滞納の抑止力になる。文言通りの請求はほぼない」と話す。

　大阪や福岡では弁護士らが刑事告訴も検討している。

　■監督官庁なし

　保証会社の多くは９０年代に設立。高齢者や外国人労働者らのニーズもあり、新規参入が続いた。今は１００社以上あるといわれる。グレーゾーン金利の撤廃で経営が悪化した消費者金融会社からの転出組もあるという。

　保証会社の関係者は「競争が激しく、滞納しそうな入居者もどんどん入れる。その結果、滞納率が高まり、無理な取り立てをする業者も出てきた」。別の司法書士も「家賃保証の仕組みが悪いのではなく、違法な手口が問題なのだ」。

　保証会社は宅地建物取引業法や借地借家法の規制外で、現在は「監督官庁もない状態」（国土交通省不動産業課）だ。（室矢英樹、千葉雄高）

-----------------------------
アメリカ・トウモロコシ地帯を行く
燃料・肥料の高騰に苦しむ家族農業

《報告者》
早川治（日本大学准教授）
野見山敏雄（東京農工大学教授）
村田武（愛媛大学特命教授）
　食糧の生産と消費を結ぶ研究会（生消研）は、第22回海外農業視察として、2008年10月4日から11日までアメリカ合衆国ワシントン州とイリノイ州を訪問した。生消研としては10年ぶりにアメリカ穀倉地帯を探ることになった。視察に参加した3名の研究者からトウモロコシ生産をめぐる現況を執筆してもらった。

◆採算悪化でブームに陰りもバイオエタノール
左からＣＧＢ社のスティッツライン部長、一人おいてトウモロコシ農家のダニー・エバンスさん
左からＣＧＢ社のスティッツライン部長、一人おいてトウモロコシ農家のダニー・エバンスさん

　遺伝子組み換え（以下、GMと表す）大豆、トウモロコシの商業栽培が始まったのは1996年からである。170万ヘクタールからスタートしたGMの栽培面積は、07年には1億1430万ヘクタールに達した。作物別では、大豆の栽培面積が5860万ヘクタール、トウモロコシ3550万ヘクタール、次いでワタ、ナタネとなっている。形質別では、これまで「除草剤耐性」や「害虫抵抗性」が大半を占めていたが、これに2つ以上の形質を併せもった、通称「スタック」が急激に増加してきている。主要な栽培国は、米国、アルゼンチン、ブラジル、カナダ、インド、中国で、このうち最も多いのが米国である。米国のトウモロコシ栽培面積のうちGMの占める割合は、96年にわずか1％だったものが、12年後の08年には80％に達している。
　トウモロコシは97年と01年の害虫発生を受けて、Btコーンの作付が拡大した。Btコーンは、土壌中に生息する昆虫病原菌の一種、バチルス・チューリンゲンシス（Bacillus thuringiensis）の遺伝子を導入して害虫抵抗性を持たせた遺伝子組換えトウモロコシである。茎の内部に入り込んでトウモロコシを食べてしまう「アワノメイガ」を駆除するために遺伝子組換え技術を活用してBtタンパク質を作る性質を持ったBtコーンが開発された。そして03年からは「ネクイハムシ（コーンルートワーム）」と呼ばれるトウモロコシの根の害虫耐性を持ったGMの作付が開始されている。その後、05年以降からは害虫耐性（Bt）と除草剤耐性の両方の特性を持った品種が年々増加しており、さらにヨーロピアン・コーン・ボアラー、ルートワーム、その他の害虫の耐性を持ったものなど多くのスタックが開発されている。これまで、米国コーンベルト地帯では、トウモロコシと大豆の輪作体系で栽培されてきた。しかし、今では肥沃度の高い地域ではトウモロコシの連作が行われているが、それを可能にしたのがコーンルートワーム耐性のGMコーンであった。
　ところで、アメリカでは1995年に大気浄化法（RFG）計画が策定され、ガソリンに2％の酸素を含んだ改質ガソリンの使用が義務づけられ、全体の約 30％がMTB（Methyl Butyl Ether＝ハイオクガソリンの添加剤）含有ガソリンとなった。
トウモロコシ茎の内部に入り込んでいる「アワノメイガ」
トウモロコシ茎の内部に入り込んでいる
「アワノメイガ」

しかし、MTBが環境汚染の一因となったことから義務化が撤廃され、あらたな再生可能なエネルギー（エタノール）供給が求められ、05年の新エネルギー法案で2012年を目途にエタノールの使用量を年間75億ガロンとする最低目標が設定された。さらに06年の大統領年頭教書演説で2025年までに中東からの原油輸入量75％削減目標が示され、07年の新エネルギー法案で2022年までに年間360億ガロンのバイオ燃料を義務づけたことから、一挙にエタノール生産に注目が集まった。その結果、エタノール原料となるトウモロコシの需給構造が大きく変わり、価格高騰を招く結果となった。現在では、原料となるトウモロコシ価格の上昇、原油相場の軟調から、エタノール工場の採算性が悪化し、操業を中止する工場が出始めており、一時のブームに陰りが見えている。（早川治）

◆トウモロコシ農家は作物・品種選択で苦悩
収穫中の大型ハーベスター
収穫中の大型ハーベスター

　今回われわれは1988年に全農・伊藤忠グループが買収したCGB社（Consolidated Grain ＆ Barge Enterprises）の協力を得て、イリノイ州のコーンベルト地帯を訪問する機会を得た。今回の視察では2戸のトウモロコシ農家を調査した。最初の農家はイリノイ州CGBヘネピン・リバーエレベーター近郊のジム・ラップさん60歳である。祖父がスエーデンから移住したという。農業従事者は本人のほか息子2名、季節労働者2～4名を雇用している。経営耕地面積は2000エーカーで、うち自己所有地は700エーカー（1エーカーは約0.4ha）である。作物別作付け割合はトウモロコシ90％、大豆10％である。過去3年間で300エーカーを大豆からトウモロコシに作付転換している。トウモロコシの8割は GMコーンで2割が非遺伝子組み換え（以下、non-GMと表す）コーンである。
　non-GMコーンは1ブッシェル当たり40～50セントのプレミアムが付くそうだが、エーカー当たり収量が40～50ブッシェルも低いため、単位面積当たりの農業粗収益は低くなる。だが、トウモロコシの作付面積すべてをGMコーンにすることは、GMコーンに耐虫性の変異が発現する恐れがあるため、 USDAから作付割合の上限を80％に規制されているそうだ（環境保護庁（EPA）はnon-Btコーン種とBtコーンを作付けする農家には20％の緩衝地を義務づけている）。
　昨年の単収はGMコーンが1エーカー当たり240～250ブッシェルで、non-GMコーンが200ブッシェルだったという。ただ、燃料費が急騰し、肥料代は2年前の倍以上、種子代は昨年よりも30％上がっており、トウモロコシ価格が1ブッシェル当たり4ドル以上でないと経営は赤字になるという。出荷先は買い入れ価格によって日々決めている。ジムさんは視察メンバーを大型ハーベスターに乗せてくれたり、私たちに「また、おいで」と声をかけてくれたりとても気さくな人だった。ジムさんのようなファミリーファームがアメリカ農業の柱になっている。
　2番目の農家はブラッフ近郊のダニー・エバンスさん48歳である。経営耕地面積は1800エーカーで、所有地は300エーカー、借地が1500エーカーである。作付はトウモロコシと大豆を1年おきに輪作している。トウモロコシの栽培面積900エーカーのうち、non- GMコーンを450エーカー栽培している。農業従事者は自分以外に年雇用が3名と臨時雇用が1名である。トウモロコシのほかに乳牛の繁殖経営を行っている。
　今年は気象条件が良くてnon-GMコーンとGMコーンの単収差が無く、ともに1エーカー当たり150～160ブッシェルだった。しかし、旱魃時の単収はGMコーンが20～25％高いという。また、スタックGMコーンであれば農薬散布の回数が減り、栽培が容易である。そのためGMコーンの栽培面積が急速に増加している。トウモロコシ価格の上昇に伴って、これまでのnon-GMコーンのプレミアムでは、栽培する農家が減少傾向にあるという。昨年のプレミアムは1ブッシェル当たり30セントだったものが今年は60セントと2倍に値上がった。さらに、燃料費の値上がりも大きく、結局、物財費総額は、昨年は1 エーカー当たり400ドルだったが、今年は520ドルになりそうだという。
　CGB社によれば、来年は種子を農家に無償譲渡して、non-GMコーンの作付を依頼しなければならないとしている。これに要する種子代は2.5エーカー分の8000粒で300ドルである。来年以降のnon-GMコーン作付費用は、従来までのプレミアムの他、種子代までも負担しなければならなくなりそうだ。「遺伝子組み換えとうもろこし不使用」と表示されている飲料食品を日常的に買っている日本人の何人が、このことを意識しているであろうか。（野見山敏雄）

◆非遺伝子組み換えトウモロコシの調達に力入れるJA全農

　トウモロコシ価格の高騰が単収の高い遺伝子組換え品種の栽培熱を刺激するなかで、対応を迫られたのが、JA全農のnon-GMコーンを国内の需要に応えて確実に調達し、分別して物流するシステムである。
　全農はわが国の配合飼料供給量2500万トンの30％、730万トンを扱っている。「くみあい配合飼料」の主原料であるトウモロコシ400万トンは、ほとんどがアメリカのトウモロコシ地帯で、全農の子会社CGB社が生産農家から直接買い入れたものだ。全農の分別流通システム（IP）は、収穫後に農薬散布をしないトウモロコシの分別物流システム（PHFコーン・プログラム）を1990年に開始して以来の歴史があるが、10年前の1997年以降は、この PHFプログラムにnon-GMコーンを加え、non-GMコーンで育てた家畜の卵や、牛乳、食肉を求める生協と連携する畜産農家に供給する配合飼料原料を確保してきた。
　イリノイ川の中流域にあって、アメリカのリバーサイドエレベーターでも最大級というネイプルズ・エレベーターで、CGB社のIPマーケティング担当スティッツライン部長からnon-GMコーン調達の苦労を聞いた。
「種子会社や生産農家の遺伝子組換え品指向が強まっているだけに、非遺伝子組換え品の確保はむずかしくなっている。そこで新しい取組を開始している。」
　「Voucher（バウチャー）・Plusプログラム」という新しいIPは、農家への非遺伝子組換えプレミアムの支払いに加えて、種子代をほぼ全額農家に補てんするVoucher（クーポン券）の提供を、農家が栽培品種を決める前に契約する方式を採用した。農家がVoucherを種子会社に提示することで、種子会社には非遺伝子組換え種子の需要量を知らせることができる。連携する種子会社には、調査研究費や在庫保管費を助成する。この新IPは、非遺伝子組換え品の栽培コストがアップするなかで、害虫被害の大きくない地域に集中して宣伝しているという。収穫期の秋に、次いで1、2月に農家が集中して出荷してくるので、それに対応してnon-GMコーンの集荷・保管ができるようにエレベーターの保管機能の引上げも必要だ。
　当然、非遺伝子組換え配合飼料原料トウモロコシの遺伝子組換え品との価格差は広がることになる。わが国の生協と消費者がそれにどれだけ耐えられるかが問われるわけである。この新しい分別流通でnon-GMコーンを確保できるというCGB社スティッツライン部長の自信は、日本の消費者への期待と重なるものであった。（村田武）
（２００８.１１.２５）

-----------------------------
GM fight still rages 20 years on
Nov 29, 2008 6:46 PM

Twenty years after the first genetically modified crops (GM) were planted in New Zealand, the fight over so called "Frankenstein food" is still raging.

GM crop trials have been allowed since 1988 but it was not until the moratorium was lifted in 2003, amid loud protest, that applications could be made to grow GM plants commercially.

But so-far no New Zealand companies have gone down that path.

This is partly due to the fact that many of the GM crops that have shown success, such as cotton, canola and soy, are not traditionally grown in New Zealand.

Also, the filing an application to begin growing commercially would cost upwards of $30,000 and that would be a big cost to recover given the small scale of crops grown in New Zealand.

Scientists who have backed the technology say the country have made little progress in two decades.

Plant geneticist Tony Conner was getting ready to plant the first genetically modified trial crops in the Southern Hemisphere during the 1980s but two decades later he says the lack of progress is frustrating.

"Every year more than four times the total land area of New Zealand is now grown in GM crops around the world and if anything the system in New Zealand is we've regressed. It's become more difficult to do field trials," he says.

But environmental groups continue to say there is still not enough proof that GM is safe.

"We actually don't know what the long term effects of GE (genetic engineering) will be in the environment. So we're actually experimenting by going ahead and doing it within the environment," says Bunny McDiarmid, Greenpeace New Zealand.

Currently having guaranteed GE-free produce is a marketing point for New Zealand

"New Zealand has a very powerful image offshore of this clean green image and that's crucial to the way we market organic products and it's crucial to the way we market our conventional products," says Jon Tanner, Organics New Zealand.

But Conner says the cautious approach could actually end up limiting our agriculture industry.

"We're heavily reliant on overseas companies for our new innovative cultivars for the New Zealand market and it just bothers me that in time, in 10-15 years time, we could be well left with yesterdays' cultivars," says Conner.
Source: ONE News

----------------------------

Organic farming rules hinder boom

By DAN PILLER • dpiller@dmreg.com • November 26, 2008

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Organic corn sells for up to $10 per bushel and organic soybeans bring as much as $20 per bushel. The prices of fertilizer and genetically modified seeds spiral upward.

Organic farming, then, seems on the cusp of a boom in Iowa.

But many barriers - including costs for farmers to switch to organic - have relegated organic farming to a minor role in Iowa agriculture. Both the number of farmers and acreage are less than 1 percent of Iowa's total farmer population, estimated at around 50,000.
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The sense that conventional agriculture may be in for some hard times may stimulate the growth of organics, said Maury Wills, who directs the organic programs for the Iowa Department of Agriculture.

"Prices have been volatile and input costs keep going up for conventional farmers," said Wills, whose family operates an organic apple orchard in Dallas County. "If that keeps happening, then conventional farmers will start looking at organic."

Kathleen Delate, who directs the organic agriculture program at Iowa State University, bluntly said: "Conventional corn prices have gone down and I'm glad."

Organic farmers and producers gathered this week in Ames for ISU's eighth annual organic conference. Paul Mugge, who farms 800 acres in O'Brien County and has been organic since 2000, said he got 170 bushels per acre for his organic corn in the recent harvest. That virtually matches the Iowa state average.

But Mugge said his soybean yields were a below-average 40 bushels per acre after the crop was hit by aphids.

"You have to accept things like that," he said. "You also have to remember that the input costs are only about half of what a conventional farmer has because we are using less expensive fertilizers and seeds."

Mugge's fertilizer comes from chicken litter and hog manure.

Ron Rosmann of Harlan, who has been organic farming for 25 years, said a 30-acre field in his 600-acre farm got 200 bushels of corn per acre. The entire farm, all organic, averaged 160 bushels per acre yield for corn and 50 bushels per acre yield for soybeans.

Mugge and Rosmann are staunch believers in going organic, but they acknowledge the hurdles. First, a new organic farmer has to certify that land for organic cultivation has not been despoiled by chemical fertilizers or genetically modified seeds for at least three years.

Mugge said he went through the process gradually, field by field, but the conversion can be costly. The most recent federal farm bill provided some money to help farmers through the transition to organic, but ISU's Delate fears for the future in an era of tight budgets.

"We know that organic is the first thing to be cut out of the budget, especially if it comes up against feeding hungry children," she said.

Organic agriculture has traditionally been dominated by produce, which accounts for the largest share of organic production nationally. Iowa's staple corn and soybeans, with their mass production techniques and markets, have taken a back seat.

Another difficulty is the need for longer rotations of crops. Whereas a conventional farmer alternates corn and soybeans, the organic farmer is obliged to mix in a year or two of small grains, such as oats or legumes, to provide natural nitrogen to the soil. The farmer can get a corn crop on a certain parcel only every third or fourth year instead of every other year.

On the marketing side, while the conventional farmer can sell easily into the feed grain market that is supported by the vast elevator network through the Midwest, the organic farmer has to sell directly to processors. The development of more processing firms and new markets means organic farmers generally have to store their crops for shorter periods of time.

"Organic farming isn't easy," Mugge said. "You have to want to do it. But if you're an environmentalist like me, and want to improve the quality of both the food and soil, it is the best way to farm."

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GM crop contamination concern in western Victoria

Wednesday, 26/11/2008

A group opposing genetically-modified crops says it's found evidence of GM canola spreading outside the area where it's been planted.

The Crop Watch group has been touring areas where GM canola is planted, and says that seed has spread up to 75 metres away from a canola paddock near Horsham in Victoria.

But Monsanto's manager of corporate affairs, Mark Buckingham, says some spread was always expected.

"These are events that were anticipated by the government regulator when they approved GM canola for use back in 2003, so to describe them as contaminations is, as I say, a gross exaggeration."

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Switzerland Became the 25th Member of the Schengen Free Zone

Saturday , 29 November 2008

The meeting of the Justice and Home Affairs Council was held on 27-28 November in Brussels. The French Interior Minister Michéle Alliot-Marie chaired the last JHA Council of the French Presidency. The further actions to combat terrorism, the Commission’s proposal for the European PNR System (transfer and processing of passenger name records), the implementation of the global approach to migration and the problems concerning the free movement of persons related to the situation of the Iraqi refugees constituted the main issues on the agenda.

During their meeting on Thursday (27 November), EU interior and justice ministers formally approved the accession of non-EU member state Switzerland to the Schengen free zone, starting from 12 December. Thus, Switzerland will be the 25th country within the Schengen Group including the other two non-EU member states Norway and Iceland.

Switzerland which belongs to neither the European Union nor the European Economic Area had set negotiations with the Commission in 2002. An agreement was concluded between the EU and Switzerland on 26 October 2004 (Official Journal L 370 of 17.12.2004). Later in 2005, the Schengen/Dublin Agreement was presented to the approval of the Swiss people. Following the traditional evaluation process, the previous day, interior ministers concluded that Switzerland fully complies with the Schengen Acquis, mainly the security standards and therefore is eligible for admission.

The lifting of land border controls between Switzerland and its neighbors (except its border with Liechtenstein) will take place on 12 December. Since Liechtenstein has not been a member of the Schengen group, Switzerland had to put some special border arrangements towards it. The country will drop identity checks at airports on March 29th next year after the completion of the remaining necessary adjustments. In this regard, this application will only cover the free movement of persons. The land carriage will continue to be subject to customs check.

The admission of Switzerland was welcomed by both the Swiss government and the European leaders. It was said that the cooperation will serve to the improvement of security conditions both in the Switzerland and its neighboring countries. Furthermore, a boost in tourism is anticipated due to the elimination of strict visa requirements.

Yet, there still remains a risk about the implementation of the Treaty. EU Justice and Home Affairs Commissioner Jacques Barrot made a statement warning that in case of an overturn of the earlier decision regarding the extension of free movement of EU workers to Bulgaria and Romania by the Swiss voters in referendum next year, the country’s participation in the Schengen area may be interrupted. Nationalist parties in Switzerland are opposing the extension of the labor agreement with the EU covering the newest countries Bulgaria and Romania. They claim that this extension will result in mass labor immigration flows from less developed countries and will harm the delicate social balance in the country. The Swiss people will have the final decision on 8 February 2009.

The Schengen Area was firstly formed among the five EU member states, namely, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands and Belgium in 1985. A further implementing convention was signed in 1990 and entered into force in 1995. It aimed to abolish the internal borders among the signatory states and create a single external border where common rules regarding visas and right of asylum are applied. So far 24 countries have joined the Schengen Zone, including two non-EU member states, Norway and Iceland. Among the EU member states, Britain, Ireland and Cyprus chose to stay outside the zone, however they apply the provisions relating to police and judicial co-operation. Newest member states Bulgaria and Romania have not yet fulfilled the security requirements for the membership. They are anticipated to join the group by 2011.

Ceren Mutuş (JTW)
November 29, 2008

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Switzerland might give up Schengen because of Bulgaria & Romania

Updated on: 28.11.2008, 17:10
Published on: 28.11.2008, 16:54
Author: Olga Yoncheva

The ministers of foreign affairs of EU approved Switzerland's accession in the Schengen zone. Now remains the issue whether this accession anticipated on 12 December won't be hurdled by the forthcoming referendum, writes Euobserver.

According to the agreement, the Swiss authorities will remove the inter-border points of the borders with Germany, France, Italy and Austria, but will increase the control at the border with Lichtenstein, which is not part of the Schengen zone.

The only problem which now stays in front of the country refers to the free movement of labor force from the newly accepted EU member states, namely Romania and Bulgaria.

According to the EU commissioner on justice Jaque Bareau if the referendum, scheduled for February 2009 limits the movement of workers from Bulgaria and Romania, the agreement for entering the Schengen zone will be hurdled.

The passport free Schengen zone practically includes all EU member states except for Cyprus, Ireland and UK.

Bulgaria and Romania are expected to join Schengen till 2011.

--------------------------
高校寮に喫煙室　設置容疑で愛知の私立高校を家宅捜索

2008年11月30日23時35分

　愛知県新城市の私立黄柳野（つげの）高校（辻田一成校長、生徒数２３１人）が、生徒寮に「喫煙室」を設けていたことがわかった。県警は同県青少年保護育成条例違反（喫煙場所の提供）容疑で同校を家宅捜索して灰皿などを押収した。学校側から詳しく事情を聴いたうえ、学校関係者を書類送検する方針。

　同校は不登校生徒を支援するとして９５年４月に開校した全寮制高校。辻田校長によると、開校時から喫煙する生徒が目立ち、０７年１月には女子寮のトイレで喫煙が原因と見られるぼやが発生した。

　同校は人家から離れた山中にあり、学校側は「山に隠れて喫煙されれば山火事になる」と対策を検討。ただ、生徒は買い物や通院で外出した際にたばこを買ったり、保護者に送ってもらったりしており、職員内でも「癖になっていて指導しきれず、保護者も容認している」と黙認する声が上がっていた。

　このため、０７年４月に「火災予防や分煙・禁煙のため」として、敷地内にある男子寮４棟の空き部屋各１室を「禁煙指導室」と名付けて事実上の喫煙室にした。女子はたばこのにおいを嫌う生徒が多く、寮の外にバケツを置いて「喫煙場所」としていた。

　同校は併せて、同室など決められた場所以外で喫煙した場合は謹慎処分にするなどとする罰則を設けていた。寮の職員が喫煙している生徒を調べ、学校が用意した月１回の禁煙カウンセリングを受けるよう指導していた。

　辻田校長は「隠れて喫煙されるより、きちんと指導できる場があった方がよいと考え、教育的に模索した結果だった。条例違反と言われればその通りで申し訳ない」と話しており、同室を閉鎖するという。０９年度は喫煙者の入学を断る方針。

　同校内では今年９月に集団暴行事件があり、１１月に生徒５人が書類送検された。この際にたばこのにおいがする生徒が県警に事情を聴かれ、「寮に喫煙室がある」と説明していたという。

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捨て犬猫の収容所拡充、飼い主と出会いの場に　環境省

2008年11月30日20時27分

　捨て犬や捨て猫の処分を減らすため、環境省は来年度から、全国にある収容施設の拡充支援に乗り出す。収容数を増やして「待機期間」を延ばして新たな飼い主との出会いのチャンスを増やす。

　収容所は元々、狂犬病が広がるのを防ぐのが主な狙いで、３日以内に処分されることが多く、「出会いの場」として十分に認知されているとはいえない。特に、中・大型犬では飼育の負担が大きいため、引き取りを検討している間に処分されてしまうこともあったという。

　このため、同省は来年度から、主に捨て犬や猫の収容数を増やせる施設の新築や改修について、費用の半分を補助する。施設を「出会いの場」としての存在としても強調していき、現在より譲りやすくする。

　野良犬や、元の飼い主から捨てられた犬や猫は、都道府県や指定市の動物愛護センターや保健所など約４００カ所に収容されている。０４年度は９４％が処分された。（高山裕喜）

-----------------------
郵便事業会社、純損失１８９億円　９月中間

2008年11月28日20時26分

　日本郵政グループは２８日、０８年９月中間連結決算を発表した。昨年１０月に民営化したので前年同期との比較はできないが、売上高にあたる経常収益は９兆４８６８億円、経常利益は４２２５億円。純利益は２２２４億円だった。郵便事業会社は郵便物の取扱数が減り、１８９億円の純損失となった。

　配達や物流を手がける郵便事業会社は、郵便物の取扱数が前年同期より３％少ない９１億５７５６万通。ゆうパックも０．８％減って１億３２５５万個だった。メールの普及に加え、景況感が悪化し、企業からの注文が減ったことが響いた。

　窓口業務を担当する郵便局会社は、貯金残高が増えた拠点が拡大したり、新たな保険契約が増えたりしたことで手数料収入が増加。２０９億円の純利益を確保した。

　ゆうちょ銀行は、国債中心に運用していたことが功を奏し、金融危機のなかでも１５０１億円の純利益を得た。

------------------------
羽賀研二さん無罪　求められる「緻密な捜査手法」
2008.11.28 23:14
このニュースのトピックス：羽賀研二被告らによる詐欺・恐喝未遂事件
無罪判決を受け、大阪地裁を出る羽賀研二さん＝２８日午前１１時３９分無罪判決を受け、大阪地裁を出る羽賀研二さん＝２８日午前１１時３９分

　詐欺と恐喝未遂の罪に問われた羽賀研二さん（４７）らを無罪とした２８日の大阪地裁判決は、詐欺を立証する証拠の構成のもろさを指摘し、被害者の証言のみに頼った警察、検察当局の捜査手法に大きな課題を突きつけた。

　最大の争点は、羽賀さんが未公開株を取得した額が１株４０万円だったことを被害者が認識していたか否かだった。公判で羽賀さんが「４０万円と伝えた」といえば、被害者は「聞いていない」と応酬した。水掛け論に決着を付ける決め手になったのは、羽賀さんの知人の男性歯科医という“第三者”の証言だった。

　歯科医は、結審後に異例の形で再開された法廷で「被害者と同席した場で羽賀さんから取得額を聞いた」と証言。これに反論する検察側の根拠は被害者証言しかなく、被害を裏付ける客観的な証人を用意できなかった。

　検察側は控訴するとみられるが、１審無罪の判断は重い。捜査を担当したのは暴力団事件を扱う大阪府警捜査４課。今回の事件の背景に多数の暴力団関係者が見え隠れしていたことが「詰めの甘さ」につながったのか。今後、暴力団捜査で及び腰にならないためにも、捜査当局には緻密（ちみつ）な捜査が必要だ。（津田大資）

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「レスキューナウ」法人向け危機管理を強化　新型インフルエンザにも対応 (1/2ページ)
2008.11.30 19:44

　危機管理情報配信サービスのレスキューナウ（東京都品川区）は、法人向けの危機管理サービスを強化する方針を明らかにした。大地震や大型台風などの自然災害のほか、テロや新型インフルエンザなどの新たな緊急事態にも対応し、企業の事業継続計画（ＢＣＰ）策定を支援する。昨年７月の新潟県中越沖地震など大災害の発生が経営に打撃を与えるケースが増えており、危機管理に関する企業の関心の高まりに対応する。

　レスキューナウのサービスの心臓部は、平成１２年４月の設立以来、２４時間３６５日稼働を続けるレスキューナウ危機管理情報センター「ＲＩＣ２４」にある。スタッフが常駐し、交通情報や火事など日常の緊急情報から、三宅島噴火などの大災害に至るまで、監視や取材で情報を収集し、個人・企業やマスメディアなどに配信している。

　市川啓一社長は「当社の強みは、緊急情報の収集の仕組みにあり、鉄道の分野では、業界ナンバーワンにまで成長した」と自信を示す。

　具体的には、情報を配信している会員あてのメールに返信用フォームを添付し、地下鉄が止まったりした場合、会員からこの返信用フォームで第一報を送ってもらう。それを受けた情報センターのスタッフが鉄道会社へ取材するなどの方法で、「どこよりも早く、詳細な情報を配信できる」仕組みだ。

　同社が強化する法人向けサービスは、災害の発生を知らせる緊急通報や社員からの安否報告、災害対策本部の設置判断など、ＢＣＰの発動に必要な初動対応を支援するサービスが中心だ。「内部統制やＣＳＲ（企業の社会的責任）への対応を万全にするためにも、平時からの危機管理への取り組みが重要になる」ため、企業の危機管理の取り組みを支援するサービスも提供する。

　さらに、鳥インフルエンザ（Ｈ５Ｎ１型）がヒトからヒトへと感染しやすくなる「新型インフルエンザ」発生への対応を支援するサービスを１１月末から始めた。

　内容は、対策計画立案のコンサルティングやマニュアル作成の支援、備蓄用品の計画作成支援・販売、社員向けの自己防衛研修など。専用ポータル（玄関）サイト「新型インフルエンザ対策．ｊｐ」を立ち上げ、申し込みの受け付けやメールマガジン会員の募集などを行っている。

-------------------------
UN team warns of hard landing for dollar

By Harvey Morris in New York

Published: December 1 2008 08:48 | Last updated: December 1 2008 08:48

The current strength of the dollar is temporary and the US currency risks a hard landing in 2009, according to a team of United Nations economists who foresaw a year ago that a US downturn would bring the global economy to a near standstill.

In their annual report on the world economy published on Monday, the economists said the dollar’s sharp rebound this autumn had been driven mainly by a flight to the safety of the international reserve currency as the financial crisis spread beyond the US.

The overall trend remained a downward one, however, reflecting perceptions that the US debt position was approaching unsustainable levels. An accelerated fall of the dollar could bring new turmoil to financial markets.

“Investors might renew their flight to safety, though this time away from dollar-denominated assets, thereby forcing the US economy into a hard landing and pulling the global economy into a deeper recession,” the report said.

Publication of the annual survey by the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, its trade organisation Unctad and UN regional bodies, was brought forward by a month in the light of the financial crisis. It was launched in Doha to coincide with the UN-sponsored development financing conference in the Qatari capital.

The UN team said that, as the financial crisis spread beyond the US, there had been a massive shift of global financial assets into US Treasury bills, driving their yields almost to zero and pushing the dollar sharply higher. At the same time, however, the US’s external debt had risen to new heights that could provoke a dollar collapse.

The report recommends reform of the international reserve system away from almost exclusive reliance on the dollar and towards a globally backed multi-currency system.

Rob Vos, a Dutch economist who heads the UN’s policy and analysis division and who is responsible for the annual economic review, said the global economic pain could be eased if governments co-ordinated a spate of stimulus packages that were already under way.

“There has been a sea change in attitudes in favour of intervention and concerted action,” he told the Financial Times. He welcomed statements from US president-elect Barack Obama’s transition team in support of spending on infrastructure.

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Moscow seeks to mend Cuban ties

By Marc Frank in Havana

Published: November 30 2008 21:23 | Last updated: November 30 2008 21:23

A glowing Raúl Castro, Cuban president, strolled arm in arm with Dmitry Medvedev, his Russian counterpart, through the restored colonial district of Havana late last week, topping off a remarkable diplomatic effort by Moscow to mend relations with its former cold war ally.

The visit was the last stop on the Russian president’s tour of Latin America that, according to experts, was designed to teach the US a lesson: Russia wants to show that it is prepared to meddle in Washington’s backyard, in response to US support for governments such as Ukraine and Georgia that Russia considers to be part of its sphere of influence.

Julia Swaig, director of Latin America studies at the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations, said: “Against the backdrop of last summer’s moves in Georgia, the Russian initiative in Venezuela and Cuba has the air of a geopolitical tweak for Washington, and presumably president-elect Obama’s consumption.”

Cuba, which has been under US economic sanctions for decades because of its communist government, was the most sensitive destination on Mr Medvedev’s itinerary. The Russian and Cuban presidents discussed joint projects, such as plans to search for oil in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as ventures in pharmaceuticals, tourism and transport, the official Cuban media said. “Our relations are excellent,” Mr Castro told the press. Mr Medvedev agreed and said he expected to see Mr Castro in Moscow early next year to sign new agreements.

The visit capped a series of high-level Cuban-Russian contacts this year. Igor Sechin, Russia’s deputy prime minister, has been to Cuba three times. On each occasion he also visited Havana’s closest ally Venezuela, a big importer of Russian arms and a thorn in the side of the US.

In recent months Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian security council, and General Alexander Maslov, head of the Russian army’s air defences, have also met Mr Castro in Havana.

“This level of contact signals major agreements are on the table,” a western diplomat said. “The big question is what’s in it, what’s the military component, and how far is Cuba willing to go given their past experience with the Russians?”

Russian diplomats in Cuba said Moscow’s interest in Havana was motivated by more than geopolitics. It wanted a long-term economic partnership with Cuba as part of efforts to broaden ties in Latin America – seen as increasingly adrift from US influence.

Russia’s support for Cuba ended abruptly with the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, leaving Cubans bitter. But officials in Havana seemed happy to be courted once again.

Fidel Castro, Cuba’s ailing former president and brother of Raúl, heaped praise on Mr Mevdevev in a newspaper column published over the weekend.

Mr Mevdevev visited Peru, Brazil and Venezuela before arriving in Havana, pushing energy, broader trade and arm sales. He insisted that while touring Russian war ships docked in Venezuela, his mission was “humanitarian, economic and peaceful”.

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Floods hit Brazil’s agricultural exports

By Robert Wright, Transport Correspondent

Published: November 27 2008 16:25 | Last updated: November 27 2008 16:25

A key agricultural area of Brazil could face months of difficulties exporting its products after severe flooding destroyed vital equipment at the country’s second-busiest container port.

The Port of Itajai is the gateway for key agricultural areas in Brazil’s southern Santa Catarina state, a big exporter of meat products such as frozen chicken. The floods killed at least 100 people, according to Reuters reports, after the River Itajai rose eight metres following heavy rain over the weekend.

Pictures of the damage suggested some quay walls in the port had been demolished. That would prevent the port from returning to full operation for at least months, according to one expert, who asked not to be named.

APM Terminals, majority owner of the Teconvi terminal, which appears to have borne the brunt of the damage on the river’s south bank, said it would not be able to do a full assessment of damage until the waters had receded further.

“We expect the port to remain closed for at least the next 10 days to two weeks,” the company, part of Denmark’s AP Møller-Maersk, said.

Only parts of the port are likely to be useable at first, it added.

As well as the immediate damage to the port area, APM said pilots were examining water depths in the river leading to the port and looking for submerged obstacles. Flooding can often reduce water depth in dredged channels.

Port users are likely to have to use either the new port of Navegantes, on the Itajai River’s north side, where damage appears to be less severe, or the ports of Sao Francisco do Sul to the north or Imbituba to the south.

“It’s a big container port for Brazil, and for Santa Catarina,” the expert said. “Having that out of action is quite a serious thing.”

The diversions could create further problems if they increase pressure on neighbouring ports, which have grown increasingly congested following recent years’ boom in agricultural exports and consumer goods imports.

“All Brazilian ports are under pressure,” the expert said.

Brazil’s perishable agricultural exports - such as meat, vegetables and fruit - increasingly travel in containers, rather than traditional refrigerated ships, and moving through facilities such as the Teconvi terminal. Brazil’s busiest container port, Santos, near Sao Paolo, is too far north to handle much of Itajai’s traffic.

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US soldier’s German asylum plea imperils ties

By Bertrand Benoit in Berlin

Published: December 1 2008 02:13 | Last updated: December 1 2008 02:13

An expected thaw in relations between the US and Germany following the election of Barack Obama faces an unexpected obstacle after an Iraq war deserter asked for asylum in Germany.

André Shepherd, a US Army specialist who had been living underground in southern Germany since going absent without leave 1½ years ago, filed his application last week, he told the Financial Times in a telephone interview from an undisclosed location. “I’ve done enough research to come to the conclusion that what is happening in Iraq is not the equivalent of World War II but outright massacre,” Mr Shepherd said. “We are not the freedom fighters we think we are.”

His application was the first such move by an Iraq war deserter in Europe.

Under a 2004 European directive, now part of German law, the country must grant asylum to deserters if the conflicts they are fleeing from are being conducted in an unlawful manner. Mr Shepherd, 31 has been staying with German friends, often changing locations and working illegally on construction sites. He said he was reconciled to the idea that a successful asylum application would make it impossible for him ever to return to the US. “I miss my family a lot, but Germany has also become a second home” he said.

Mr Shepherd’s lawyer, Reinhard Marx, said: “Legally, his prospects are looking very good.” The German Federal Administrative Court ruled in 2005 that the Iraq War violated international law and labelled the invasion an act of aggression.

But Mr Marx added: “Politically, things do not look so good. You can have doubts as to whether the government would grant asylum to a US deserter .”

If successful, Mr Shepherd’s application could create a problematic precedent for the US military in Germany, home to 66,000 active-duty personnel, the largest US military overseas presence outside Iraq.

Mr Shepherd’s application makes him a deserter under the US military justice code.

Yet as an asylum seeker, he now enjoys the protection of the German federal government.

“If the Americans grab him, there will be very little we can do but I assume they will respect German law,” Mr Marx said.

Desertion in time of war carries a possible death sentence in the US, although in practice Iraq war deserters have faced prison sentences ranging from nine months to 1½ years.

While several US servicemen have filed for asylum in Canada, home to most deserting Iraq war veterans, the government there has turned down applications.

Mr Shepherd, from Cleveland, Ohio, joined the army after college in 2004 and served on a forward operating base near Tikrit in Iraq from September 2004 to February 2005, servicing Apache helicopters, before being transferred to Germany.

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Italy and Albania to sign energy deals

By Guy Dinmore in Rome and Kerin Hope in Athens

Published: December 1 2008 01:58 | Last updated: December 1 2008 01:58

Grandiose energy projects, including what is billed as Europe’s largest wind farm, will be on the table for signing when Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s premier, meets Sali Berisha, his Albanian counterpart, in Tirana on Tuesday.

Albania’s chronic energy crisis and Mr Berisha’s ambitions to create a regional energy hub in Europe’s second poorest country have opened a new market for many Italian companies.

There is also a sense of urgency for Mr Berisha, who faces elections in June and needs to convince Albanians tired of constant blackouts that relief is on its way. Mr Berisha is offering attractive terms to investors, including long leases on state-owned land for a nominal amount under his “Albania one euro” policy.

People involved in the projects, however, suggest that they could face prolonged delays, warning of corruption, lack of transparency in approval procedures, land ownership disputes and resistance from Albanian environmentalists.

One of the foreign companies involved alleged that Albanian officials had demanded bribes, although Tirana insists it follows European Union procedures.

According to the official schedule, Genc Ruli, Albania’s energy minister, is to sign two energy projects – a €1bn ($1.3bn, £800m) contract for Italy’s Falcione Group to build a regasification plant near Fier in southern Albania and an undersea gas pipeline to Italy; and a €1.15bn deal for Moncada, a Sicilian construction company, for a wind farm on the Karaburun peninsula and a power cable across the Adriatic Sea to Italy.

Italy’s energy deficit and internal problems in building new infrastructure make Albania an attractive option for sourcing electricity.

Moncada’s proposed 500MW wind farm, comprising 250 turbines, is billed as Europe’s largest.

Falcione appears to have beaten off a rival project proposed by ASG Power, a Swiss-based project company 75 per cent owned by Agim Gjinali, a Kosovo Albanian entrepreneur.

It proposed a large-scale regasification plant that would take gas shipped from North Africa and Qatar and then feed it to Italy and Albanian industry.

In addition, Italy’s Marseglia group said Mr Berlusconi would cut the ribbon on its own wind farm and undersea power line project, which already has Albanian approval. Mr Berlusconi’s office denied such an event was planned. Marseglia later told the Financial Times that there would just be a meeting with company representatives.

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Lisbon treaty could be back from the dead

By Quentin Peel

Published: December 1 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 1 2008 02:00

Hopes are stirring in the European Union that the Lisbon reform treaty, declared dead by its opponents after the Irish voted No in a referendum last June, may be revived by the end of next year.

Last week the Czech constitutional court declared that the treaty was not in conflict with Czech law, clearing the way for a parliamentary vote on ratification; and an Irish parliamentary sub-committee said there was no legal obstacle to holding a second referendum.

It is much easier said than done. Brian Cowen, the Irish taoiseach (prime minister), is facing a disastrous slump in his personal and political popularity. His ruling Fianna Fáil party has seen its support drop to 26 per cent in recent weeks - its lowest ever score. The financial crisis has hit Ireland harder than almost any other EU member state, with a collapse in property prices, economic growth and tax revenues. It could scarcly be a worse time to ask voters to think again.

Yet there is a sense of urgency, too. If the Lisbon treaty is not ratified by all EU members before the end of 2009, it is likely to fall foul of politics in the UK, where a general election is due by 2010. The Conservative party will campaign on the promise of a UK referendum on Lisbon, in the confident expectation that it would be rejected. But neither Labour nor Conservatives wants the EU back as a big issue, because it splits both parties.

Mr Cowen has promised to give his 26 EU partners an answer on his tactics in the next 10 days, before their Brussels summit on December 11. The outline of a deal is already apparent. He will promise a second referendum if they make adequate concessions. He wants agreement that every state will be allowed to keep a member of the European Commission, instead of shrinking the size of the EU executive to a smaller number. He also wants declarations on issues such as Irish neutrality, taxation and abortion, saying that Irish law will not be affected by the treaty.

A deal on the size of the Commission looks likely, although it is only popular with the smaller members. Big members such as Germany, France and the UK say a 27-member Commission is inefficient, expensive, and that "national" commissioners end up as national lobbyists.

Under the present Nice treaty arrangements, the Commission should be streamlined from next year. But if Lisbon is ratified, that will be delayed until 2014. The 27 can decide unanimously to delay the date further - if the Irish vote Yes.

As for declarations, the question is whether they will be enough to persuade Irish voters there has been any real change in the treaty. "No" campaigners argue that calling a second referendum at all is an insult to popular democracy.

An alternative is for Ireland to copy Denmark and seek formal opt-outs from EU policies, such as European security and defence policy. For example, Dublin could opt out of the European Defence Agency, designed to promote European defence capabilities and armaments co-operation. The Irish army would not like it, but it might reassure some voters concerned that European defence policies endanger Irish neutrality.

The most recent Irish opinion poll on the Lisbon treaty, in the Irish Times, says 43 per cent would vote Yes, against 39 per cent No, and 18 per cent undecided. That is far too narrow a margin for Mr Cowen to be confident.

On the plus side for him, the financial crisis works both ways: it has shattered public confidence in his government, but it seems to have made Irish voters scared about excluding themselves from the comfort of membership of the EU and the eurozone. The credit crunch may have destroyed Mr Cowen's domestic popularity, but it could just save his European reputation.

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Warning of worst decline in 20 years

By Peter Marsh and Norma Cohen

Published: November 30 2008 22:51 | Last updated: November 30 2008 22:51

As the Bank of England prepares a further cut in interest rates this week, the widespread withdrawal of credit from the nation’s businesses threatens the worst recession in 20 years for the manufacturing sector, a leading industry association warns on Monday.

Mervyn King, the Bank’s governor, has identified the resumption of normal lending patterns as the single most important task for monetary policymakers.

Economists expect the Bank’s monetary policy committee to cut interest rates by at least half a percentage point on Thursday, with a significant minority expecting an even bigger reduction.

The EEF manufacturers’ organisation, which on Monday warns that manufacturing will contract by 5 per cent next year, followed by a further decline of about 1 per cent the year after, has called for a full percentage-point cut. Steve Radley, chief economist for the EEF, says this would mean that the sector – which most economists believe is already in a recession – would not pull out of contraction until some way through 2010.

The EEF, whose forecast for 2009 is based on feedback from more than 800 member companies, says the sector faces the loss of 90,000 jobs next year with an unspecified number of companies going into liquidation. Peter Spencer, professor of economics at York University, said the difficulties for many companies were being exacerbated by many banks being “paranoid and paralysed” on the issue of lending to businesses that they believed were in the hardest-hit parts of the economy.

“A lot of banks are putting everything on hold and starving the commercial sector of cash,” Prof Spencer said. “The banks have been given approximately £500bn of cash by the government to help them recapitalise, but my impression is that many of them are sitting on the money rather than lending it out.

“It could be that to jerk the system into action the government may have to consider a full nationalisation of the banks to make sure that the money goes to the parts of the economy where it is needed.”

Mr Radley said full bank nationalisation should be considered “only as a last resort”. But he added that this could be the “next step” to be tried if efforts by the government to push banks to step up lending to stricken companies failed to come to anything.

Lending data released on Monday will shed some light on the extent to which banks are making more credit available.

In recent weeks Lord Mandelson, the business secretary, has expressed frustration at reports that some banks were failing to lend at reasonable levels to small and medium-sized companies, even after the massive recapitalisation of the banking system at taxpayers’ expense.

In its survey of members, the EEF said it found not all sectors were as hard hit as others – with some areas of industry such as automotive and construction materials being in a serious condition while others, such as medical equipment and energy systems, were in better shape.

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AIG sells Swiss private bank to Abu Dhabi group

By Haig Simonian in Zurich

Published: December 1 2008 07:34 | Last updated: December 1 2008 07:52

AIG on Monday announced that it had sold its Swiss-based private bank to an investor group from Abu Dhabi, its first significant disposal since it was taken over by the US government in a massive bail-out.

The price for the deal, which had been under negotiation for some weeks, was not revealed, but Swiss bankers estimated that AIG could have raised SFr300m-500m ($247m-$412m).

AIG Private Bank, which had assets under management of SFr21bn at the end of last year, is being bought by Aabar Investments PJSC, an Abu Dhabi-quoted investment group specialising in holdings with long-term growth potential.

An announcement had been expected as early as 10 days ago but the closing of the deal was delayed by legal complications in the US, because the sale represented the first significant dismemberment of AIG Group since the giant US insurer received a massive US government bailout.

AIG Group, which suffered massive writedowns and a collapsing share price, got into difficulties because of its activities in financial, rather than traditional insurance, products, including the writing of protection on complex structured derivatives.

AIG Private Bank is believed to have attracted interest from a number of direct competitors, as well as some less obvious names. Based in Zurich, the bank has operations in Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai and Dubai, with a marked focus on emerging markets, notably the Asia Pacific region.

Founded in 1965, the bank was originally a vehicle for the funds of top AIG Group executives, but soon broadened out into a traditional Swiss private bank. Net profits at the bank, which has about 530 staff, fell slightly to SFr31.3bn last year from SFr36m in 2006.

Among the parties which showed initial interest was Bank Sarasin, the Basel-based private bank controlled by Rabobank of the Netherlands. AIG Private Bank recently set up bank zweiplus, a cost cutting joint venture with Sarasin to handle smaller clients, in which it has a 42.5 per cent stake.

AIG Private Bank will continue to be run by its present management, but will be rebranded. No new name has as yet been revealed. Aabar implied it would encourage the bank to expand in the Middle East.

“We have looked very thoroughly at AIG Private Bank and are impressed by the professionalism and dedication of the management team and staff”, said Khadem Al Qubaisi, Aabar’s chairman.

“We are proud and delighted that we have found a strong and internationally renowned investor such as Aabar to support the future development of our bank”, said Eduardo Leemann, AIG Private Bank’s chief executive.

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Workforce deaths at Shell higher than for other western oil groups

By Ed Crooks , Energy Editor

Published: December 1 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 1 2008 02:00

Royal Dutch Shell last year suffered more workforce deaths than any other large western oil company, with a rate of fatalities twice as high as BP's.

The figures, compiled by the Financial Times from company reports, follow renewed focus on Shell's safety record after it was prosecuted in a case that last week resulted in some of the highest fines imposed on companies operating in the North Sea.

Two employees and 28 contractors were killed working for Shell in 2007, compared with three employees and four contractors for BP, and eight contractors for ExxonMobil.

The companies are roughly comparable in size, but Shell has a bigger workforce, with 104,000 employees at the end of last year, compared with 98,000 for BP and 81,000 for Exxon.

Differences in organisational structure and operations account for some of the variation in reported deaths between companies. But even using a strictly comparable measure of workforce deaths per 100m hours worked, Shell's death rate was more than twice that of BP last year.

Shell's overall safety performance, as measured by reported injuries per million work hours, was slightly better than BP's, but it has for years suffered a higher fatality rate than its peers.

In 2005, the year of the explosion at BP's Texas City refinery, which killed 15 people, Shell suffered more workforce deaths.

One reason is that Shell operates in some particularly dangerous countries, including Nigeria. Nine of last year's deaths were in Nigeria, with two people killed in attacks on Shell facilities, and

10 in Russia.

The number of fatalities was significantly lower than the 43 recorded in 2006, and Shell's death rate has fallen sharply in the past decade: it lost 67 people in 1997.

Shell said: "We are deeply saddened by these losses. Of these fatalities, 17 happened in our upstream business, mainly on the roads, or at high-risk locations like Nigeria, where two lives were lost due to assaults and a third died as a result of a fire caused by criminals stealing oil from a pipeline."

Last week Shell and Amec, the oil services and engineering group, were each fined £150,000 for a case brought by the Health and Safety Executive after the death of an Amec employee working on a Shell installation in the southern North Sea.

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Harbours of resentment

By Vanessa Houlder

Published: December 1 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 1 2008 02:00

In the Victorian seaside town of Douglas, a new mood of uncertainty has punctured the customary ebullience of the Isle of Man's senior legal and financial officials as they fret about the loyalty of their most powerful neighbour. "If jettisoned by the UK, we will have to fight tooth and nail for our survival," says William Corlett, the island's attorney general.

In the 1960s, young Manx people began to leave the windswept island until politicians started creating jobs for them by scrapping taxes and luring financial institutions to do business in the self-governing Crown dependency. Finance, says Mr Corlett, is what has saved the Isle of Man, 60 miles off the western coast of Britain, from the fate suffered by other isolated outposts such as Scotland's Western Isles, which are plagued by depopulation.

Hence the sense of vulnerability as the island's close relationship with the City of London is called into question. Alistair Darling, the UK chancellor of the exchequer, launched a review last week into London's financial ties with what he has described as "a tax haven sitting in the Irish Sea". From next month, the White House will be occupied by an avowed enemy of tax havens who backed a bill targeting "offshore secrecy jurisdictions", including the Isle of Man.

This icy blast is a sign of the growing hostility to the tiny states and islands around the world that harbour an estimated $6,000bn (£3,895bn, €4,725bn) of offshore assets. After months of financial crisis and banking scandals that rocked Liechtenstein and Switzerland, the world's most powerful countries have lost patience.

In Washington last month, finance ministers from the Group of 20 leading industrial and developing nations concluded that tax secrecy "should be vigorously addressed". This weekend, it was the turn of the developing countries. At a United Nations meeting on development in Doha, tax havens came under fire for fuelling capital flight.

Tax havens are used to threatening language. Ever since they came into vogue after the second world war as places for individuals to shelter money and savvy international corporations to manage their tax affairs, havens have faced pressure from bigger countries. Will it be different this time? If it is, what future is there for the small island and mountain countries that turned the dusty notions of privacy and opaque corporate architecture into lucrative national industries?

"The political climate on the issue of tax havens has changed dramatically over the past three months," says Jeffrey Owens of the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. As the official who has driven the international crackdown on secrecy for more than a decade, he says the new climate could turn the reform promises extracted from many offshore centres into a reality. The financial crisis has intensified the attack on havens. The near-collapse of the west's banking industry has drastically increased governments' need to raise funds, brutally exposed the risks inherent in small countries with large financial sectors, and raised questions about the role of offshore centres in destabilising the system.

Some European finance ministers claim that the "opaque environment" of offshore finance - particularly hedge funds - contributed to reckless behaviour and, ultimately, the current crisis. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France is among those questioning whether, at a time of taxpayer-funded bail-outs, banks should even be allowed to operate in tax havens.

Onshore businesses in London and New York exploit the offshore benefits offered by the likes of Jersey and the Cayman Islands to optimise the tax efficiency of certain deals, such as the repackaging of debt and cross-border lending. The havens themselves reject claims that they fuelled the crisis. "It is like blaming a car manufacturer for road crashes," says an official in one of Britain's overseas territories.

The arrival of Barack Obama in the White House provokes even more anxiety for the havens. As well as launching last year's Stop Tax Haven Abuse Act, the president-elect helped this year to launch the Incorporation Transparency and Law Enforcement Assistance Act. This aims to make it easier for investigators to "see through" opaque corporate ownership structures and stop the flow of offshore funds to the US from hedge funds and private equity that are "of unknown origin" but do not have to pass money-laundering checks.

On the campaign trail, Mr Obama also laid bare his hostility to the corporate use of offshore jurisdictions for international tax planning, which analysts estimate accounts for between one third and a half of the revenues that Washington loses through offshore evasion and avoidance. "There's a building in the Cayman Islands that houses supposedly 12,000 US-based corporations," he said. "That's either the biggest building in the world or the biggest tax scam in the world, and we know which one it is."

Turning tough talk into real action will require considerable political will. Any reform of US tax to stop offshore fiscal planning is sure to face fierce opposition from US multinationals worried about being put at a disadvantage to foreign competitors. Martin Sullivan of Tax Analysts, a non-profit US publication, says: "Nothing will sail through. It will be much diluted."

Havens hope the likely differences between the Obama administration and that of President George W. Bush have been exaggerated. "The Democrats are never as bad as their rhetoric; the Republicans never as good," says an official at a centre bruised by concessions on transparency that were extracted after the 2001 terror attacks.

But the prospect of a renewed crackdown on secrecy is jangling nerves. The more reputable offshore centres are fearful that the difference between co-operative and unco-operative jurisdictions will be lost. "Politicians like scapegoats. In a crusade, the details get swept away," says Allan Bell, the Isle of Man's treasury minister. He complains that the nuances of the debate - including offshore-style tax dodging in many large "onshore" countries - are being overlooked. In October, he won support from Angel Gurría, OECD secretary-general, who called for "clear political recognition" of the half-dozen jurisdictions, such as the Isle of Man, that had taken "high political risk" in their move to greater transparency.

But even the most co-operative havens are only partially transparent. Information about private companies or trusts is not on public record. At best they will surrender information only to foreign tax inspectors who already have a "smoking gun" demonstrating evidence of wrongdoing. In practice, information exchange is rare.

Yet moving too far, too fast, might put the more co-operative tax havens at a competitive disadvantage. Wealthy individuals can be highly sensitive about financial privacy. Advisers at leading banks report that clients are already moving their money to Singapore and Switzerland - widely perceived as the last hold-outs against the international drive for transparency.

The danger of focusing solely on small players while ignoring similar shortcomings in some industrialised countries was one lesson of an OECD crackdown on secrecy launched in 1996. Tax havens have exploited this evident hypocrisy to stall reforms pending the introduction of a "level playing field". The success of the latest crackdown is likely to depend on the attitude of relatively powerful countries such as Switzerland and Singapore.

Even if secrecy is eliminated, the leading offshore jurisdictions will survive, reckons Tax Analysts' Mr Sullivan. "Will there still be Switzerland, Jersey, the Cayman Islands and the Isle of Man in a world where there was no tax evasion? Absolutely." But for dozens of others, the outlook is bleak. "There is so much competition. Some would go out of business."

That message has yet to reach the many eager wannabes. Last month, Tax Justice Network, one of several campaign groups that have vigorously lobbied against havens, proclaimed the Indian Ocean island of Anjouan to be the "new kid on the block". But such newcomers may not have reckoned with the ever-mounting costs of new regulations designed to tackle terrorist financing and money laundering.

Smaller, less successful tax havens are caught in a pincer as competition and regulatory costs mount. As recession arrives, their fragile economies are also feeling the pain from declines in tourism and other industries. Construction companies are pulling out across the Caribbean. In the Turks and Caicos, a UK dependency in the region, unpaid workers stranded by the Lehman Brothers collapse prevented managers from leaving the premises.

Some locations have tried to diversify. Liechtenstein is the world's largest false-teeth exporter. Monaco has more jobs in manufacturing than in finance. The Isle of Man has a foothold in the space industry and a lively manufacturing sector. Bermuda wants to break into the gambling business.

Despite such efforts, the tax havens still fear a bleak future if the international firms of accountants, lawyers and bankers pull out. "They are birds of passage. If they up sticks and go somewhere else, unemployment would be dramatic," says one official.

The tiny states and protectorates that thrived in the free-wheeling second half of the 20th century are left struggling to shore up their defences against the coming storm. But as big countries try to block the leakage of much-needed tax revenues and stanch the flow of dirty money, sympathy for the tax havens is in short supply.

Additional reporting by Rachel Keeler

Delaware: America's own home to corporate anonymity

Joe Biden, the US vice-president-elect, has a distinction that went all but unnoticed during the election campaign: he is senior senator for a state prominent in the world of tax havens.

Delaware, represented by Mr Biden since 1972, is infamous for allowing corporate financial secrecy of the kind that president-elect Barack Obama and many others are seeking to shatter in offshore financial centres.

Arguments over Delaware - whose more than 600,000 registered companies compare with an estimated 865,000 inhabitants - are part of a broader fight over what many havens see as rich-country double standards in international action to tackle money laundering and tax evasion. "The reality of Delaware is not lost on anybody," says one official involved in efforts to improve financial transparency.

Delaware corporations are under no obligation to file names of shareholders or beneficial owners, according to a 2006 report by the intergovernmental Financial Action Task Force on money laundering. The state offers a structure known as a limited liability company, which can be registered with not much more than a name and address.

The report says Delaware company agents advertise the state as allowing even greater secrecy than offshore tax havens. "The Delaware LLC provides the anonymity that most international jurisdictions do not offer," claims one agent website quoted by the task force.

Carl Levin, the senator with whom Mr Obama has campaigned on tax haven reform, is critical of the US failure to heed the task force's calls to lift the confidentiality surrounding companies in Delaware and states such as Nevada and Wyoming. Before the election, a Levin aide told the FT the senator believed that the US "ought to meet its international commitments, especially when it is urging other countries to strengthen their anti-money-laundering controls".

The debate highlights the vulnerability of the global campaign on tax havens to accusations that leading economies fail to practise what they preach.

Offshore financial centres

Cayman Islands Home to most of the world's hedge funds

Bermuda Leading insurance centre. Finance employs one in 16 of the population

Panama Operates strict bank secrecy

British Virgin Islands World capital for incorporating offshore companies

Turks and Caicos Islands Hosting trusts is a feature

SwitzerlandForeign assets make up 35 per cent of bank balance sheets

LiechtensteinRocked by an evasion scandal at LGT, its biggest bank. Had announced concessions over secrecy

Monaco Dubbed unco-operative by the OECD. Residents are mostly tax exiles

GuernseyEurope's leading captive insurance domicile

Jersey Fund management grown rapidly

Singapore Leading world financial centre, employing 127,000. Foreign law enforcement authorities say it is unco-operative and slow in answering requests for help

Anjouan Politically unstable part of the Comoros islands located in the Mozambique Channel. Launched an offshore centre in 2005 - one of a rash of newcomers

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メバチマグロも漁獲量３割削減案　ＷＣＰＦＣ議長が提示

2008年12月1日22時5分

　高級品のクロマグロに続き、比較的安価なメバチマグロの漁獲規制も厳しくなる可能性が出てきた。中西部太平洋まぐろ類委員会（ＷＣＰＦＣ）の議長が、８日から韓国で開かれる総会に向け、各国の漁獲量を現行より３割減らすように提案しており、日本政府も支持する方針。総会最終日の１２日に結論が出される見通しだ。

　ＷＣＰＦＣの管理する海域でのメバチ漁獲量は、世界の３割強（０６年）にあたる。乱獲で資源が減っており、ＷＣＰＦＣ内の科学委員会が今年夏、漁獲量削減を提言していた。これを受けて、豪州出身の議長が総会に提案した。

　マグロの漁獲規制をめぐっては、既にクロマグロについて地中海を含む東大西洋での漁獲枠が０９年は当初計画より２割少ない２万２千トンに削減されることが決まっている。

　水産庁によると日本国内で出回るマグロは年間４６万トン。うちメバチは１６万～１７万トンで３～４割を占める。最高級品のクロマグロやミナミマグロは少ない。

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渋谷再開発で地上げ　所得隠し６０億円　脱税容疑で立件へ
2008.12.1 01:40
このニュースのトピックス：倒産・破綻

　大規模再開発が行われている東京・ＪＲ渋谷駅周辺の土地取引で、岐阜県内の宗教団体の代表（４８）が会長を務めていた東京都港区の不動産会社が、地上げで得た利益約６０億円を隠して１８億円前後を脱税した疑いの強いことが３０日、東京地検特捜部の調べで分かった。特捜部は、法人税法違反（脱税）容疑での立件に向け、地上げに関与した不動産業者ら関係者から参考人聴取を進めているもようだ。

　地上げが行われたのは、現在、超高層ビルの建設が進んでいる東京都渋谷区の約８０００平方メートルの土地のうち、約７２００平方メートル。

　調べでは、宗教団体の代表側は平成１５年９月～１７年、別の不動産会社をダミーに、都市銀行などから計約２３０億円の融資を引き出し、土地を次々と購入。住民やテナントを立ち退かせた。１８年４月に４２０億円余の高値で売却し、約１９０億円の利ざやを得た。

　利ざやの一部約８５億円や立ち退き交渉の手数料収入などは、自身が会長を務めた会社の収入だったが、事実上倒産した関連会社の所得に見せかけて赤字と相殺させるなどの手口で、約６０億円にのぼる所得を隠し、法人税１８億円前後を脱税した疑い。現地では宗教団体の看板を掲げ、宗教儀式を装って大きな音を出すなどの嫌がらせを行い、立ち退きを迫っていたという。

　問題の会社は平成１２年設立で資本金３０００万円。宗教団体の代表は１３年に会長となり、今年５月から９月までは監査役だった。

　関連会社は、詐欺罪などで元幹部らが特捜部に起訴されたＰＣＩのグループ会社との間で以前、東京都多摩市の土地開発を巡り不正取引疑惑を指摘された。１０年に２度の不渡りを出したが、宗教団体の代表が１８年５月まで代表取締役だった。宗教団体は昭和５０年に法人登記し、神道系を標榜（ひようぼう）している。

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海外資金流入でミニバブル背景に　渋谷の地上げ脱税　
2008.12.1 01:41

　問題の地上げは、バブル期を彷彿（ほうふつ）とさせる。巨額の融資金にものを言わせて、地主や住民、テナントと交渉して都心の一等地を強引にまとめあげ、すぐに購入費の倍近い高値で売却。代表自身はウオーターフロントの超高級マンションの最上階に転居した。

　背景には、ミニバブルと評された平成１７年前後の都心の地価高騰がある。

　当時、不動産の証券化市場の拡大で、海外から莫大（ばくだい）な投資が流入し、東京駅など主要駅周辺の再開発が活発化。現在はサブプライムショックとリーマンショックで海外資金が引き揚げられ、沈静化したが、渋谷駅周辺では超高層複合ビル「セルリアンタワー」をランドマークに、駅東口や東急文化会館跡地などで大型再開発計画が依然続いている。

　また、地上げ成功の要因には、当時急拡大したシンジケートローン市場の存在もある。このローンは複数の金融機関が融資団（シンジケート）を作り、同一の契約書に基づいて行う融資。金融機関は、単独で融資するよりもリスクと負担が分散でき、借りる側は大型融資が受けやすい。１７年、日本での市場規模は２１兆円を超え、米英に次ぐ世界第３の市場となっていた。

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公益法人（社団法人・財団法人）制度が変わります

公開日 平成20年12月1日

　現行の公益法人制度を抜本的に変える、新たな公益法人制度が12月1日から始まりました。

　新制度では、これまで一体であった法人の設立と公益性の判断が分離され、登記のみで法人が設立できる制度（一般社団法人・一般財団法人）が創設されました。
　そのうち公益目的事業を行うことを主たる目的とする法人については、行政庁（内閣府又は都道府県）に申請し、民間有識者による委員会の意見に基づいて公益認定を受けることができます（公益社団法人・公益財団法人）。

　現行の公益法人は、平成20年12月1日に自動的に「特例民法法人」となります（定款、機関、登記の変更等の手続は必要ありません。これまでどおりの名称（「社団法人～」、「財団法人～」）が使えます。）。
　新制度の法人への移行期間は5年間（平成25年11月30日まで）設けられており、この間に移行する必要があります。

　移行期間中に移行の手続を行わないと解散したものとみなされますのでご注意下さい。

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広響、新公益法人に移行へ '08/11/21

　広島交響楽団を運営する広島交響楽協会が20日、広島市中区で臨時総会を開き、国の制度改正に伴う新公益法人化への検討委員会設置を決めた。税制面で優遇される一方で、財政危機の場合は解散を求められるなどリスクもあり、今後、さらなる経営努力や地域挙げての支援策を探る。

　税制の優遇措置が受けられる特定公益増進法人の同協会。12月１日の新法施行で「特定民法法人」になり、５年以内に新公益法人か一般社団法人への移行を迫られる。新公益法人なら今以上の優遇措置が受けられるが、純資産が300万円未満の状態が２年続けば解散命令も。同協会の昨年度までの累積赤字は約１億3700万円で、現状では認定自体も危ぶまれる。

　総会では財界や行政、大学による検討委を設置し、経営体質の改善のほか、地域で支える仕組みを考えていく。