Short View: Trend reversals in 2008

Short View: Trend reversals in 2008

By John Authers

Published: December 19 2008 00:26 | Last updated: December 19 2008 00:26

As 2008 nears the end of its last full week of trading, many trends that at one point seemed clear for the year have been emphatically reversed.

The euro looks as though it will close the year virtually unchanged against the dollar, after huge moves in either direction in the intervening 12 months.

Both six months ago and one month ago, for different reasons, this outcome would have been amazing.

Other prices would have prompted even more amazement at mid-year. Over the course of 2008, shares in US banks have performed better than crude oil, with the KBW banks index down 49 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate crude is down 60 per cent.

These numbers encapsulate the story of the year, as optimism that the world economy could grow in spite of the credit crisis gave way to reality. On July 14, oil had outperformed US banks by 168 per cent. Since then, oil has underperformed by 71 per cent.

More such contradictions must be resolved. Treasury bonds are in an epic bull market, and yet the dollar is falling. Someone must be buying US bonds, and this should push up the dollar. It is hard to see how these two conditions can exist together for much longer.

Credit and equity markets also contradict each other. Even after rising over the past few days, corporate credit is still priced for a depression. Equities are priced just for a recession.

Brokers’ earnings forecasts for the current quarter, as tracked by Thomson Reuters, have fallen from annual growth of 60 per cent, which was projected at mid-year, to 6.5 per cent now. This reflects massive optimism earlier in the year, and there is ample room, if the economy is as bad as many fear, for more disappointment in January.

Defaults and earnings announcements in the early weeks of next year should help to resolve these contradictions.

----------------------------------
IIF forecasts global contraction

By Norma Cohen in London

Published: December 18 2008 23:20 | Last updated: December 18 2008 23:20

The global economy is poised to contract slightly in 2009, the first such decline in the post-1960 period, with shrinking output from the world’s developed economies too large to be offset by the modest growth in emerging markets, according to a trade association of the world’s biggest banks.

The Institute of International Finance said the world’s economy, overall, would “broadly stagnate” in the year ahead, with economies of the word’s biggest economies shrinking by 1.4 per cent.

The IIF is the first international body to forecast an outright global contraction for next year, although other bodies are forecasting that the world’s developed economies will see declining national output.

Separately, the IIF warned that the emerging global recession was interacting with the 18-month-old financial crisis and that national measures to shore up the banking system worldwide were still inadequate.

“It is important to realise that for many banks, credit losses have exceeded mark-to-market losses [accounting losses] on their mortgage and credit portfolios,” said Hung Tran, senior director at the IIF’s capital markets division. “The weakening economy will increase credit losses, continuing to put pressure on bank capital.”

The IIF said that as losses mounted, banks pulled back on lending, further exacerbating the finances of private non-financial companies. Among other measures, the US government needed to adopt measures to significantly reduce the number of peventable home foreclosures.

The IIF predicted further slowing in the leading emerging market economies, although their average growth rate in 2009, at 3.1 per cent, after 5.9 per cent in 2008, would exceed that of developed economies.

The eurozone appears to be shaping up to see the steepest fall in output of any world region next year. “We expect the recession in the euro area to persist for longer than in either the United States or Japan, stretching through most of next year,” the IIF said.

Overall, the region is likely to contract by 0.5 per cent in the year to the end of 2008 and by a further 1.0 per cent in the year to the end of 2009. Although initially, weakness reflected external challenges in major trading partners, activity in the coming months would respond to domestic factors.

In particular, deleveraging in the region’s banking system, which is particularly exposed to emerging economies in central and eastern Europe, would weigh on growth. Moreover, the region’s governments and central banks appeared less eager to apply the fiscal and monetary stimulus that the US is providing.

Meanwhile, the IIF pointed to an anomaly in government bond markets for some of the world’s largest economies where long-term bond yields are falling sharply in the face of government plans to step up borrowing. But real yields, as measured by inflation-linked securities, are actually rising.

“Falling nominal yields but rising real yields add up to one thing: collapsing implied inflation expectations over the life of the bond,” the IIF said.

Although the IIF did not use the word “deflation”, that is what its assessment amounts to. However, it noted that there may be a bubble developing in government bond markets and if inflation expectations were reversed, the fall in prices could be a new source of financial sector instability.

-------------------------------
D Bank faces buyer strike over bond move

By Paul J Davies in London and James Wilson in Frankfurt

Published: December 18 2008 23:31 | Last updated: December 18 2008 23:31

Deutsche Bank is facing the prospect of a buyers’ strike against its own debt and even debt it tries to sell on behalf of others as investors protest against the bank’s decision not to redeem a bond deal this week.

The German bank shocked bond and equity investors – and raised fears about its own capital strength – on Wednesday when it became the first big bank to say it would not repay the €1bn ($1.42bn) bond as expected in January.

The move makes it more likely that other banks will not repay their own extendable so-called hybrid-capital bonds. Such instruments helped banks expand their balance sheets before the financial crisis and have played an important role in shoring them up since.

“We are treating this issue very seriously and are extremely disappointed with Deutsche Bank,” Richard Thomson, of Henderson Global Investors, said. “They consistently led us to believe that these deals would be called and they led us to believe that it was not an economic issue but a reputational issue.

“We have told Deutsche that unless circumstances change we will not buy any Deutsche Bank new issues and have spoken to at least five other big sterling fund managers who said they will take this stance.”

The Association of British Insurers said it was “disappointed and concerned”. “We would urge other major banks to continue to support markets in the medium term by honouring calls on bonds as per normal market practice,” it said.

Industry members are also seeking signatories to a letter to other banks, seen by the Financial Times, in an attempt to persuade them not to follow Deutsche’s example.

Members of L’Association Française de la Gestion Financière, the leading French asset management association, were considering cutting relations with Deutsche Bank entirely, investors said.

People close to Deutsche said that it had to consider the interests of shareholders as well as bondholders. “In the end, a lot of people will realise that this is a rational decision – and people will want to invest in banks that make rational and conservative decisions. It will be interesting to see what other issuers do.”

A buyers’ strike might not hurt Deutsche too much as it is not expected to raise much funding next year. The reputational damage could also be limited if many other banks follow its lead.

-----------------------------
Sterling feels the weight of the euro bearing down

By Peter Garnham

Published: December 18 2008 19:51 | Last updated: December 18 2008 19:51

So swift has been sterling’s fall from grace that something that seemed unthinkable only a few weeks ago – parity against the euro – now seems only a matter of time.

On Thursday, the pound lurched a step nearer parity, as it hit a fresh low of 95.56 pence against the single currency. On a trade-weighted basis, the currency also hit a fresh record low.

One of the few consolations for the battered pound, say analysts, is that it is already a pariah – meaning sentiment towards it cannot get much worse.

“We are probably close to a major low”, says Andrea Rogers at TorFX, the currency broker. “Everyone is looking for parity, and whenever a stampede develops in any market it is likely to be nearing the end of a major trend.”

Weakness in the pound is nothing new, of course. So far this year, the pound has dropped nearly 23.1 per cent against the euro.

But the pace of its most recent fall against the single currency – it has dropped almost 7 per cent this week – is startling.

That slump has been driven primarily by the UK’s greater reliance than the eurozone on services, once the country’s great engine of growth, and particularly financial services.

This has seen the effects of the credit crisis spill over more quickly into the real economy, hitting UK house prices and prompting a series of aggressive interest rate cuts from the Bank of England.

Moreover, as the financial crisis has deepened and the UK government has moved to bail out the country’s ailing banking system, concerns over the country’s finances have weighed on the currency.

Those fears were exacerbated on Thursday as data showed the UK budget deficit widened to a record level in November as tax revenue declined in the face of the worsening slowdown.

Longer-term forces have also been at work. Mansoor Mohi-uddin at UBS says the pound was boosted from the late 1990s by rebounding oil prices and an expanding financial services sector. But he says, in the post bubble world, financial services will shrink significantly as a share of UK GDP, while at the same time UK oil production is due to decline sharply.

While these concerns have been driving sterling steadily lower since the summer, the severity of the pound’s slump this week has been triggered by the realisation that the UK authorities look set to take more drastic monetary policy action to combat the financial crisis.

Charlie Bean, the Bank of England’s deputy governor, said in an interview with the Financial Times that zero interest rates were a possibility and that the government was likely to pump billions more pounds into the banking system as the economy kept slowing.

That raised the prospect that not only was the Bank likely to make a further, aggressive cut to UK interest rates – which currently stand at 2 per cent – at its next meeting in January, but that it might follow the US and adopt a quantitative easing approach to monetary policy.

That means once UK rates fall close to zero, the UK authority’s only way of providing monetary stimulus is to pump money into the financial system.

Neil Mellor at Bank of New York Mellon says talk of UK quantitative easing is now becoming “mainstream”, and that the Bank only refrained from a larger interest rate cut at its December meeting for fear of destabilising financial markets.

However, sterling’s plight has undoubtedly been exacerbated by the flight to the euro. This is because European Central Bank officials, such as Germany’s Jurgen Stark, have indicated that eurozone interest rates – currently 2.5 per cent – will only come down in small steps.

European officials have also become increasingly critical of lax fiscal policy with Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, recently stressing the importance of respecting the EU’s budget rules.

“It requires little imagination to conclude that in the face of simmering concern about the level of policy stimulus in the eurozone, the downside risk to UK interest rates clearly exceeds that for the eurozone,” says Mr Mellor. This means the euro could easily strengthen further, he believes.

But some analysts warn the relatively hawkish stance of eurozone policy makers could spell danger for the euro. Steve Barrow at Standard Bank says the ECB is in serious danger of creating an excessively strong currency.

He says the euro’s strength is reminiscent of that of the Deutschemark when sterling was ejected from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

Then, Germany faced the shock of reunification with the East which required interest rates so high that the rest of Europe could not live with it. As a result, most currencies plunged against the D-mark.

“Today, there’s no asymmetric shock to Germany or any other eurozone country,” says Mr Barrow. “This time the credit crisis and recession is a symmetric shock.”

He says the ECB is still displaying an inherent conservatism on monetary policy that threatens to create difficulties for the eurozone region as it prices itself out of export markets.

Indeed, David Owen at Dresdner Kleinwort says sterling’s fall should not be seen as a crisis but more as a boon for the economy. He says a weaker currency is a textbook solution to a banking crisis and recession as zero interest rates come into view.

“Not every single country can devalue its way out of a problem, so in that sense it is good the UK got there first”, says Mr Owen.

“It seems obvious to us that the eurozone needs a weaker exchange rate, and not just the highly-export dependent German economy. So, next year may be a very different story as far as sterling is concerned.”

--------------------------------
Mideast donors put Clinton in delicate position

By Andrew Jack in London and Daniel Dombey in Washington

Published: December 19 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 19 2008 02:00

Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern donors are among the leading supporters of former President Bill Clinton's philanthropic foundation, according to figures released yesterday that highlight the delicate diplomatic path Hillary Clinton could face as the US's secretary of state.

The full list of contributors to the William J Clinton Foundation, made public after protracted negotiations with President-elect Barack Obama, shows the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia provided between $10m (€7m, £6.6m) and $25m, with the states of Kuwait, Qatar and Oman each providing more than $1m each.

Other governments providing substantial support include Taiwan, through its economic and cultural office, as well as Brunei, the Dominican Republic, Norway and Australia.

Mr Clinton's charitable ties to Middle Eastern countries generated speculation and controversy throughout the US campaign season, but Mrs Clinton's staff have long maintained that her ability to act as an honest broker in the Middle East is unaffected.

Taiwan has a complicated relationship with the US, which has full diplomatic relations with Beijing, not Taipei, but which is also committed to the protection of Taiwan's security.

Other donors include Denise Rich, the former wife of the financier Marc Rich, who received a controversial pardon from Mr Clinton in 2001, and AIG, the insurance group rescued by federal funds this year. Fannie Mae, the government-rescued mortgage group, is among the contributors to Mr Clinton's separate fund to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

The fast-growing Clinton Foundation, which was launched in 1997 and which reported total revenues in 2007 of $132m, has funds working on health, development and climate change around the world. But its past reluctance to disclose its list of contributors triggered complex talks ahead of Mrs Clinton's nomination to her new post. The full list, running to hundreds of pages, provides an insight into the powerful connections forged by Mr Clinton around the world among governments, business leaders and personalities.

The largest single contributor - listed as giving more than $25m - was Unitaid, the multilateral agency set up by the French government, which funds many of the Foundation's purchases of HIV and malaria medicines. It said it had provided nearly $165m so far.

The other donor providing more than $25m was the Children's Investment Fund Foundation, the charitable arm of the UK-based hedge fund run by Chris Hohn.

Contributors giving more than $5m include Haim Saban, the Egyptian-born media investor; Lakshmi Mittal, the Indian steel magnate; and Victor Pinchuk, the Ukrainian oligarch and son-in-law of the former president, Leonid Kuchma.

Frank Giustra, the Canadian-based businessman with a programme jointly run with the Clinton Foundation, provided more than $10m, as did Sir Tom Hunter, the Scottish entrepreneur.

Among US supporters giving $10m-$25m each are Stephen Bing, the real estate developer; Fred Eychaner, the Chicago media mogul; and Tom Golisano, the founder of the payroll processor Paychex and US Independence Party candidate.

The News Corporation Foundation and James Murdoch, News Corp's Europe and Asia chairman and chief executive, both gave more than $500,000, as did Walid Juffali, the Saudi billionaire, along with the Confederation of Indian Industry.

-------------------------------
White House mulls Chapter 11 for carmakers

By Daniel Dombey in Washington

Published: December 18 2008 17:40 | Last updated: December 18 2008 17:40

The White House said on Thursday it was considering an “orderly” bankruptcy for the US’s stricken auto companies in its clearest warning yet that General Motors or Chrysler could be forced to file for Chapter 11 protection or similar measures.

Dana Perino, President George W. Bush’s spokeswoman, told reporters the administration was “very close” to making a decision as to how to help the two companies, which have said they need an emergency $15bn to continue operations until the end of March.

Over the past week, the two companies have announced the idling of their North American factories for at least a month apiece.

Ms Perino added that two options the administration was considering were tapping the Treasury’s troubled asset relief programme for the funds and “one of these bankruptcies”.

The Detroit companies have presented the Bush administration with perhaps the biggest dilemma of its last days in office, particularly since opposition from Republican senators last week doomed legislation to authorise the aid, handing the problem to the White House.

Mr Bush maintains that a disorderly collapse of one or more of the Detroit Three could have a devastating “ripple” effect throughout the economy. But he is under mounting pressure from Republican legislators who demand federal conditions on the sector in return for any loan.

“In ordinary circumstances, failing entities should be allowed to fail,” Mr Bush told the conservative American Enterprise Institute on Thursday. “I have concluded these are not ordinary circumstances, for a lot of reasons.”

Many Republicans have called for the car companies to declare Chapter 11, largely to facilitate renegotiation of labour contracts, debt obligations and other contractual arrangements. They argue that such steps are necessary to reduce the risk that the auto companies ask for billions of dollars in further aid in a mere matter of months.

One increasingly discussed option on Capitol Hill would be to provide federal aid in conjunction with bankruptcy protection, since commercial banks could be unlikely to lend to companies in Chapter 11.

“There’s an orderly way to do bankruptcies that provides for more of a soft landing,” Ms Perino said on Thursday. “I think that’s what we would be talking about. I’m not saying that is necessarily what would be announced.”

-----------------------------
S Arabia to back green fuel with $75 crude

By Carola Hoyos in Paris

Published: December 18 2008 23:34 | Last updated: December 18 2008 23:34

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil supplier, will on Friday voice its support for the development of alternative energy to complement fossil fuels.

Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, is expected to tell a meeting of energy ministers hosted by Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, that an oil price of $75 a barrel is fair and would stimulate the investment in oil and alternatives necessary to meet the world’s future energy needs.

It will be the first time that Saudi Arabia has voiced such unequivocal support for alternative energy in such a high-level forum.

Coming two days after he pushed for Opec to make a record production cut to help raise prices, his statement will aim to highlight that higher oil prices can help in the development of alternative fuels and to reassure consuming countries that the kingdom has no interest in seeing oil prices again spike to the record highs seen this summer.

Mr Naimi will also warn consuming countries that taxing petrol would hamper the recovery of a fragile world economy and trying to gain independence from any particular oil-producing region is counterproductive.

He will say that oil at $75 would allow producing countries to make a reasonable return while not harming the development of world economies, especially those of developing countries. But he will emphasise that coal, oil and gas will continue to supply the lion’s share of the world’s energy, a view also held by the International Energy Agency, the consuming nations’ watchdog.

It will be Saudi Arabia’s first such detailed policy speech since oil prices fell more than $100 from their record $147.27 high in July. But $75 oil seemed far away on Thursday as benchmark futures traded in New York fell to $37.70 a barrel in spite of this week’s record production cut by Opec, of which Saudi Arabia is the most influential exporter.

Saudi Arabia’s price target is moving towards becoming the target for all Opec members, even though the prices they need to balance budgets are widely divergent.

Riyadh’s stance is not only important because it drives Opec policy. The kingdom is consolidating its position as the key player in the oil world as global spare capacity becomes increasingly concentrated within its borders. Holding spare capacity allows it to act as a “central banker” of oil, releasing more into the market when prices become high and reducing volumes when they fall.

Saudi Arabia has arguably been the world’s most reliable large supplier for more than three decades. It has been particularly frustrated with US President George W. Bush’s assertions that the US needed to end its dependence on Middle East oil, a line repeated by Barack Obama, the president-elect.

Mr Naimi is expected to call such an aspiration “a fallacy”, a view shared by many European officials and industry executives who note that the largest remaining reserves of conventional oil lie in the Middle East.

----------------------------
割増金か、年収３００万円か…日本ＩＢＭの退職勧奨

サラリーマン残酷物語

　「日本ＩＢＭ」（本社・東京）の正社員、山下宏さん＝仮名、４０代＝は今月初旬、仕事中に突然、上司に呼び出された。２人だけの会議室。上司はおもむろに「来年、あなたの席はあるが、これから毎年、退職勧奨の話が出る。退職割増金は１０００万円だよ。体のことを考えたら？」と語りかけた。

　口調こそ柔和だったが、事実上の退職勧奨が始まった瞬間だった。こうした上司の対応は、日本ＩＢＭ労組が入手したと主張する「リストラマニュアル」通りだった。

　問題のマニュアルには「退職を強要するような言動は違法となる」「説得ではなく応諾の答えを引き出す」「感情的になった場合は一時、中断する」など、将来、会社側の非が問われない方法が細かく記されている。

　労組によると、マニュアルでは社内の１５％がリストラ対象というから、１０００人規模の正社員が路頭に迷いかねない。

　山下さんは１９８０年代、大学院修了後に入社。営業職のスタッフとして働いてきた。メンタルな病気を抱えたため、最近、サービス残業を減らしていた。

　その後も、山下さんは上司と話し合ったが、対応は矛盾に満ちたものだった。上司は、退職受け入れの条件として提示した退職割増金の申込期限を度々変更した。当初は来年の席を担保していたが、雇用の継続を申し出た途端、「あなたが働く場所はない。誰か知り合いを頼れ」と撤回した。

　さらに、「降格もあるぞ。あなたは西日本勤務の対象者だ。年収は新入社員と同じ３００万円になる」「妻が働いているなら、辞めてもいいだろう」などと冷たく突き放すような言葉が続いた。

【食欲なく、ベッドに伏し】

　山下さんの妻は「ひどすぎる」と会社の対応に絶句するが、早ければ来年前半にも、西日本勤務が待っている。その後の身分は不透明だ。山下さんは食欲がなくなり、ベッドに伏している日も。

　労組によると、上司から「４８時間以内に退職届を出さなければ解雇する」と言われた社員９人が退職に追い込まれたという。最近、退職勧奨を断った社員を集めた新しい部署が創設されるなど、会社側の動きは止まりそうにない。

　日本ＩＢＭの広報担当者はマニュアルの存在やリストラ対応について、「どういう経路で労組が入手したのか不明なので答えられない。キャリア選択を拡大するプログラムを社員に実施している。退職もあり得るが、詳細については答えられない」としている。

　「これから先、どうなるか分からない。解雇される不安はあるが、多額のマンションのローンも残っている。妻と二人三脚で頑張っていきたい」と山下さんは語る。厳しい戦いはまだ始まったばかりだ。

　■雇用をめぐり、企業からひどい扱いを受けた方々の情報を募集しております。封書にお名前と連絡先、内容を明記して、〒１００－８１６０　夕刊フジ報道部「サラリーマン残酷物語」係、メールの場合、ｙｕｆｕｊｉ＠ｚａｋｚａｋ．ｃｏ．ｊｐまで。

ZAKZAK 2008/12/19

------------------------------
西武、アイスホッケー廃部を正式発表

　アイスホッケー男子のアジア・リーグに参戦している西武が19日、今季限りでの廃部を正式に表明した。チームの親会社であるプリンスホテルの渡辺幸弘社長が東京都内で記者会見し、金融危機を発端とする経済不況を廃部の理由に挙げた。

　チームの年間運営費用は約５億円で、渡辺社長は「経費負担の高いアイスホッケー部を継続するのが、経営上難しいと判断した」と説明。今後はチームの譲渡先を探すというが、同社長は「現時点では決まっていない」と話した。

　西武は日本のアイスホッケー界を支えてきた名門チーム。アジア・リーグも２度制覇し、今季も来年2月に始まるプレーオフ進出を決めていた。

------------------------------
廃部の西武アイスホッケー部、選手に広がる動揺…

　今季限りでの廃部が決まったアイスホッケー男子の名門・西武の選手の間には動揺が広がっている。

　１９日午前、都内のホテルで渡辺幸弘・プリンスホテル社長から選手に正式に廃部の決定が伝えられた。鈴木貴人主将は「正直すぐに事実を受け入れることが出来ない。今はシーズンを最後までしっかり戦うことが大切だが、アイスホッケー界全体にとっても大変なことになる」と沈痛な表情で話した。ベテランＤＦ・川口寛は「心にぽっかり穴が開いた感じ」とショックを隠しきれない様子。チームは翌日のアジアリーグの試合に備えるため、札幌に移動した。

　今回、チームを所有するプリンスホテルの業績がここ数年悪化し、年間約５億円といわれるアイスホッケー部の運営費の維持が難しくなったことや、今回の金融危機で今後の経営環境の見通しがさらに厳しくなると予想されることから廃部に至った。自動車やアメリカンフットボールに続いてアイスホッケーも。不況による影響は日本のスポーツ界全体を大きく揺さぶっている。

-------------------------------
コンビニ、百貨店抜く　08年の売上高、消費構造が変化

　コンビニエンスストアの売上高が2008年に初めて百貨店を抜くのが確実となった。消費不振で百貨店の販売が落ち込む一方、相対的に景気の影響を受けにくい総菜や弁当などを扱うコンビニは、たばこ自販機の販売規制（タスポ）効果もあって売り上げを伸ばした。両者の逆転は消費構造の変化を象徴しており、百貨店は一段の再編・淘汰を迫られそうだ。

　日本百貨店協会が18日発表した08年1―11月の売上高は前年同期比3.6％減の6兆5800億円。高額品や衣料品の販売不振で、9カ月連続で前年割れが続いている。(07:00)

-------------------------------
トヨタ、初の営業赤字に…販売不振と円高ダブルパンチ

　トヨタ自動車の２００９年３月期決算（米国会計基準）の連結営業利益が初の赤字に転落する見通しになったことが１９日、明らかになった。

　世界同時不況による新車販売の落ち込みに歯止めがかからない上、１ドル＝９０円を上回る円高の直撃を受けた。０８年３月期に過去最高益を記録したトヨタは、１年足らずで深刻な業績不振に直面する。

　トヨタは終戦直後の混乱期の１９５０年３月期（当時は単独決算）に税引き前利益が赤字になったことがあるが、営業利益の赤字はデータが公表されている４１年３月期以降で初めて。

　トヨタは今年１１月の０８年９月中間決算発表時に、通期の連結営業利益の見通しを当初予想から１兆円減額し、６０００億円に下方修正していた。

　世界最大の米国市場で９月以降の販売台数が前年実績を２０％以上も下回るなど、世界各地で市場が縮小し、「事態は日に日に悪化している」（首脳）状況だ。

　さらに、下期（１０月～０９年３月）の想定為替レートである１ドル＝１００円を約１０円上回る円高が続き、単純計算で円高による営業利益の目減り幅が下期だけで２０００億円程度に達する。円は対ユーロでも想定以上に高騰し、アジア通貨や新興国の通貨でも円高が進んでいることも赤字転落の大きな要因となった。

-----------------------------------
Russia develops new monstrous ballistic missile for USA
19.12.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/106851-russian_missile-0

The commander of Russia’s strategic missile troops, Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, said that Russian specialists were working on a new heavy strategic missile, which would be similar to the RS-20 Voevoda missile (Satan according to NATO’s classification).

Strategic missile builders of the Russian Federation intend to create a new type of the missile, Solovtsov told Interfax. In addition, the working lifespan of the RS-20 intercontinental ballistic missiles will be extended to 30 years, the official said. The Russian president approved the adequate decision, the official noted.

Russia will decline the modernization of strategic arms only if the United States gives up its missile defense plans. The law about the ratification of the agreement between the government of the Russian Federation and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine about the prolongation of the working lifespan of 15 П 118M missile complex was signed in the beginning of 2008. The law was subsequently passed by the Russian parliament (State Duma) and approved by the Federation Council. The agreement was signed February 21 in Moscow.

It was the RS-20 missile that the USSR developed in response to the American Strategic Defense Initiative Program (SDI), Solovtsov said. The missile has no analogues in the world.

The confirmed working lifespan of the two RS-20 modifications makes up 25 and 21 years. It is technically possible to extend the life cycle of RS-20 missiles at the design bureau in Ukraine, where the missile was originally developed during the Soviet times.

The Satan missile complex is made in cooperation between Russian and Ukrainian enterprises. Russia’s missile troops currently have about 80 RS-20 missiles at their disposal.

The RS-20 intercontinental ballistic missile is a liquid-fuelled heavy class missile. It is capable of carrying ten nuclear warheads at a distance of up to 11,000 kilometers. The missile can be used to strike vulnerable objects and typical targets. It can be outfitted with a dispensing warhead containing ten individually guided nuclear blocks to strike several targets. The heavy RS-20 missile weighs 211 tons. The missile is capable of overcoming missile defense systems .

Russia is ready to decline the program to modernize its strategic arms only if the USA does not deploy the global missile defense system, Nikolai Solovtsov said.

Russia ’s strategic missile troops have always been following the nuclear deterrent policy since the moment of their establishment in 1959. The troops appeared in response to security threats under the global opposition between the two superpowers.

Russia has no ideological reason for the opposition now, Solovtsov said. “We are not going to frighten anyone as we realize the plans to develop the strategic missile troops. We simply follow the reality of today,” the general said.

It is an open secret that the USA plans to deploy elements of its missile defense system in Europe. In addition, the US administration does not exclude a possibility to deploy a part of the system in space.

The US signed the agreement about the deployment of the missile base on August 20, 2008. Russia responded immediately with a promise to deploy its Iskander missile complexes in the Kaliningrad enclave.

-------------------------------
Estonia to launch nationalist campaign to humiliate Russian-speaking population
18.12.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/ussr/106844-estonia-0

Estonia is launching a new campaign for the assimilation of the Russian-speaking population. The Russians residing in Estonia will be pushed towards changing their Russian surnames to Estonian surnames. The administration of the Baltic nation decided to use such a measure to conceal its absolute inability to struggle against the financial crisis, which had put the three Baltic states on the edge of the economic collapse.

Estonia’s Internal Affairs Ministry intends to amend the Law about Names. In other words, those wishing to become integrated into the Estonian society will be forced to change their names to make them sound like typical Estonian names.

The bill particularly says that a citizen can obtain a new surname under his or her reasonable wish, if a citizen wants to bear an Estonian surname with a view to become integrated into the Estonian society. The amendment has a rather “progressive” objective: to simplify the procedure for the provision of Estonian names. Nothing is said about the fact that people will have to bid farewell to their Russian names for good.

Estonia’s Postimees newspaper wrote that a well-known footballer Konstantin Kolbasenko became Konstantin Nakhk in 2001. “I and my wife discussed the issue, and, since we live in Estonia , we decided that an Estonian surname would fit us better,” the footballer said. Kolbasenko simply took the last name of his Estonian wife.

The effective law contains eight arguments for changing one’s name. One may file a petition for a new surname if the old surname is either complicated or linguistically cacophonous.

It is worthy of note that the current name-changing campaign is not the first one in Estonia. The country already held one during the 1930s, when the nation was living under the rule of dictator Konstantin Pyats. People would renounce their German and take Estonian names instead. However, it did not stop many Estonians from becoming staunch allies of Nazi Germany several years later.

Latvia, Estonia’s neighboring state, began to deliberately distort Russian names and surnames soon after the nation declared independence. They would add ‘–s’ flexions at the end of Russian names. For example, Vladimir Ivanov would be altered to Vladimirs Ivanovs to give the Latvian spirit to the purely Russian name. Those having the sound ‘sh’ in their names would have it replaced with ‘s’ – for example ‘Siskins’ instead of ‘Shishkin.’ The new name - ‘Siskins’ would sound humiliating to its bearer, for the Russian word ‘siski’ translates as ‘boobs,’ whereas ‘shishka’ means a ‘pine cone.’

Nowadays, Estonian officials can change the Russian surname ‘Novikov’ to ‘Noovikoff’, ‘Nikitin’ to ‘Niikitinn’, ‘Kovalenko’ to ‘Kovaalenk’, ‘Petrenko’ to ‘Petereenk’, etc. All this would be presented as a positive situation to exemplify the naturalization of the Russian-speaking population willing to become full-fledged Estonian citizens. Needless to say that no one in the Estonian authorities will wonder whether any Estonian Russians ever wish to change their names like that.

The name-changing campaign and Estonia’s tense relations with Russia aim to distract people’s attention from the severe consequences of the economic crisis. The country nears its economic collapse. Apparently, the Estonian government considered that it would be best to initiate another outburst of Russophobia. Many Estonian guest-workers have been fired from their jobs in Sweden and Finland, and many of them are expected to return to their motherland to exacerbate the social situation further on.

Vadim Trukhachev

-------------------------------------
【裁判員制度】辞退希望など１０万９０００通返送、受け取り拒否も
2008.12.19 21:47

　来年５月に始まる裁判員制度で、最高裁は１９日、候補者に辞退希望などを尋ねた調査票に対し、１５日の期限までに約１０万９０００通の回答が返送されてきたと発表した。期限後にも届いており、約２９万５０００人の候補者のうち、約４０％が回答してきたことになる。

　調査票は、自衛官や警察官など裁判員になれない場合▽７０歳以上や学生で１年を通じて辞退できる場合▽裁判員になることが難しい特定の月がある場合－などを尋ねるもの。当てはまらない場合は回答する必要がないため、返送した候補者の多くが、何らかの事情を申し立てたとみられる。

　また、転居先不明などで最高裁に戻ってきたものも約２７００通あった。なかには「受け取り拒否」と書かれたものもあったという。

　来年５月以降、個別の事件についての裁判員候補者に裁判所から呼出状が届けられるが、この段階でも辞退を申し立てることができる。今回の回答で辞退が認められた場合には対象から外される。

---------------------------------
ダイア建設が破綻、負債総額約３００億円
2008.12.19 20:07
このニュースのトピックス：倒産・破綻

　東証２部上場のダイア建設は１９日、マンション販売の不振などを受け、東京地裁に民事再生法の適用を申請して、事実上、経営破綻（はたん）した。負債総額は約３００億円。

　ダイア建設は、昭和５１年設立。マンションの分譲事業を中心に事業規模を急拡大したが、バブルの崩壊で多額の負債を抱え経営が悪化。産業再生機構が平成１５年に支援を決定。機構の支援下で、賃貸アパートの大手企業が筆頭株主となり、財務体質を強化し、いったんは再建を果たした。

　しかし、米国発の金融危機を受けた景気悪化でマンション需要が急速に落ち込んだ上、資金繰りも行き詰まり自主再建を断念した。

--------------------------------
王子はチーム存続の方針　活動縮小の可能性も
2008.12.19 20:45

　アイスホッケー西武の今季限りでの廃部が発表された１９日、同じアジア・リーグに所属する王子製紙（チームは王子で登録）の広報室は「長年、よきライバルとしてアイスホッケー界をともに支えてきた西武の廃部は極めて残念だが、企業チームである以上、経済情勢、企業業績にチームの存続が左右されるのはやむを得ない」とのコメントを発表した。

　同社は「アイスホッケーの灯を消すようなことは避けたい」と、現時点ではチーム運営を継続する方針。ただ、「日本経済全体の苦境の中で、当社グループも極めて厳しい経営環境にあることは事実であり、チームの活動を縮小せざるを得なくなることも考えられる」ともしている。

--------------------------------------
カザフスタンと租税条約に署名

　政府は19日、カザフスタンと租税条約に署名したと発表した。貿易や投資にかかわる基本的なルールを取り決め、進出企業への二重課税を防ぐのが狙い。株式の配当や債券の利子にかかる所得税も軽減し、両国間の投資を活発にする。2009年中の発効を目指す。

　カザフスタンは原子力発電の燃料となるウランの埋蔵量が豊富で、日本企業の進出が増えている。(20:01)

------------------------------------
日水、エビ養殖会社に増資　インドネシアで43億円

　日本水産は19日、インドネシアでエビの養殖事業を手がける孫会社「ニッスイインドネシア」の増資を引き受けると発表した。引受額は43億円。累積損失の解消や新規の設備投資などに充てる。同社を子会社化したうえで実施する。水質悪化などで2004年の設立以来赤字が続いており、財務基盤の強化でテコ入れする。

　日水のシンガポール子会社「ニッスイシンガポール」が26日付で、ニッスイインドネシアの全株を日水に無償譲渡。その後ニッスイインドネシアが新株を発行し、日水が引き受ける。ニッスイインドネシアは高級エビ「ブラックタイガー」を養殖しているが生産量が低迷し、08年3月期は16億円の営業赤字だった。(21:01)

---------------------------------
全農、配合飼料２割下げへ　１―３月期、円高や穀物安を反映

　全国農業協同組合連合会（全農）は2009年1―3月期の家畜向け配合飼料の価格を前期（08年10―12月）と比べ約2割引き下げる方針を決めた。主原料である穀物価格の急落と為替の円高・ドル安が背景。2年余りに渡って上昇基調が続いた配合飼料は下落に転じる。牛乳、卵など畜産物価格の下落につながる可能性が大きい。

　下落は07年10―12月期以来、5.四半期ぶり。販売価格は代表的な品種で現在の1トン6万6000円前後から5万4000円前後に引き下げられる。第1次石油ショック（1973年）直後以来の過去最大級の下げ幅で、今年1年分の上げ幅が一気に解消される。(16:00)

------------------------------
ハローワーク、年末も受け付け　厚労省　29、30日も窓口開設

　深刻化する非正規労働者の失業に対応するため、厚生労働省は19日、ハローワークや労働基準監督署で年末の29日と30日も相談を受け付けることを決めた。

　製造業の拠点などニーズの高い地域を中心に全国56カ所のハローワークと47カ所の労基署で年末の相談窓口を開設。ハローワークは通常通り求人や住宅確保のための情報を提供。労基署は解雇されたり、派遣契約を打ち切られたりした人の相談に応じる。

　失業とともに社員寮からの退去を余儀なくされている派遣労働者や期間従業員が急増。厚労省は雇用促進住宅の空室をこうした労働者の住居としてあっせんしている。同省によると、これまでに全国で4939件の問い合わせがあり、548世帯の入居が決まった。

-----------------------------------
駒大：理事長、資産運用損失で解任

　駒沢大（東京都世田谷区）がデリバティブ（金融派生商品）取引で１５４億円の損失を出した問題で駒大は１８日の臨時理事会で宮本延雄理事長を解任した。

　大谷哲夫総長ら４人の常任理事も辞意を表明したが、混乱を避けるため、当面留任する。理事長代行は大谷総長が務める。

　駒大によると、昨年７月以降、外資系金融機関３社と「通貨スワップ」など約１００億円分の契約を結んだ。しかし、金融危機で評価損が拡大、１０月末までに解約したものの、１５４億円の損失を出した。損失穴埋めのため、大学の土地建物などを担保に銀行から１１０億円の融資を受けている。

--------------------------------------
不況：日本スポーツ界襲う　競技団体の緊急対策が必要

　金融危機に伴う世界同時不況の波が、ついに日本スポーツを襲い始めた。モータースポーツからの企業撤退に続き、アメリカンフットボールやアイスホッケーの企業スポーツでも解散や廃部の動きが出てきた。１９９０年代のバブル崩壊時に続く「第２波」といえるが、今回は世界を覆う大不況だけに、第１波以上の大波となる可能性がある。

　アイスホッケーの強豪・西武の廃部が正式発表された１９日、日本アイスホッケー連盟の副会長も務める日本オリンピック委員会の遅塚研一専務理事は「日本スポーツの体質を変えなければならない時期に来ている。企業に頼らない体制を作り、国や行政の支援をどう求めていくかにかかっている」と語った。

　東京・西が丘にナショナルトレーニングセンターが完成し、国立施設は整備された。とはいえ、利用できるのは一部のトップ選手に過ぎない。団体競技で企業チームの崩壊が続けば、各競技のリーグが存続の危機にも立たされる。契約社員である選手は多く、休廃部になれば職も失う。スポンサー離れは大会の開催や、クラブ化したチームの運営にも深刻な影響を与えるだろう。

　政府与党・自民党内では「スポーツ庁」創設の動きもあるが、国策頼みではすべてを救えない。地方自治体や大学との連携などあらゆる手を打たなければ、日本スポーツの土台は急速に崩れていく。企業にスポーツ支援の社会的意義を説得することも求められる。

　今回の波は速い。競技団体が緊急に対策を打つべきだ。【滝口隆司】

◆９月の金融危機以降の国内スポーツの動き◆

１２月５日　自動車レースＦ１　ホンダが撤退を表明

　　１２日　京都シティハーフマラソン　主催する京都市が第１６回大会（０９年３月８日）限りでの中止を決定

　　１５日　世界ラリー選手権（ＷＲＣ）　スズキが０９年からの参戦休止を発表

　　１６日　ＷＲＣ　富士重工業が今年限りでの撤退を発表

　　〃　　日本女子プロゴルフ０９年度ツアー　今季より３試合減の３４試合に

　　１８日　アメフット　オンワードが今季限りで解散

　　１９日　アイスホッケー　西武が今季限りで廃部

　　〃　テニス　ＡＩＧオープンの冠スポンサーで米保険最大手のＡＩＧが来年以降、契約せず