Long View: Dark clouds loom in the investment crystal ball

Long View: Dark clouds loom in the investment crystal ball

Published: December 26 2008 19:25 | Last updated: December 26 2008 19:25

Will 2009 be better for investors than 2008? We do not know, but we can at least try to ask the right questions.

First, a question for January: how bad is the damage to companies’ profit and loss statements, and to their balance sheets?

Surveys of brokers show that they expect S&P 500 companies to announce earnings for the current quarter that are slightly higher than for the final quarter of 2007. That looks like a big reach. The next few weeks also will see companies guide the market on their outlook for the rest of the year.

Once we are through January, there are broader issues. First, does deflation turn to inflation? If so, when does this happen?

At present, the Federal Reserve (and several other central banks) are working on the assumption that the sole danger is deflation, a fall in price levels. Markets make the same assumption.

Record low government bond yields, in particular, make no sense if there is any danger of resurgent inflation. And insuring against inflation has never been so cheap; index-linked bonds are priced so that they will do better than fixed-income bonds over the next five years, even if there is no inflation at all.

All of this is in spite of the best efforts of governments to get inflation going again by cutting interest rates to 0 per cent (or in effect below zero), and funding big public spending plans with deficits. Printing money like this should be inflationary. And at present, inflation might even be a good thing, as it would reduce burdens of debt, easing the transition out of the crisis.

The world suffered deflation in the 1930s, and Japan suffered it in the 1990s. But in neither case did governments make such a concerted attempt to reinflate the economy.

This leads to two opposed camps. One says that inflation at some point in the next year is inevitable; governments can always create inflation if they want to. The first evidence that this was happening would prompt a huge shift from cash and bonds to equities.

The opposing camp suggests that deflationary forces, stemming from the withdrawal effects as the world adjusts to the lack of credit, are deeper than the inflationists believe. With global demand falling, and the engine of credit creation broken, bonds will prosper.

This leads to a second critical question: when will investors start buying credit en masse once more?

This is a necessary condition for recovery. In broad terms, equities enter 2009 priced for a recession, while credit is priced for an outright depression, with defaults at least as bad as in the 1930s. This does not reflect a considered judgment that defaults will be that bad, so much as the extreme lack of buyers in the market. But the rates in the market have the effect of making it expensive for companies to borrow. Thus it is hard to see any prolonged recovery in the equity market unless the credit market can first stage a recovery.

A final critical question concerns foreign exchange rates, which saw volcanic upheaval last year. The dollar, still the world’s reserve currency, is central.

Until late last year, the dollar was following what Morgan Stanley named the “dollar smile” – meaning that it would do well if its economy recovered, but also if things proved to be truly terrible, as this would prompt a flight to safety that would cause investors, inter alia, to buy dollars. The dollar would languish, on this theory, in mediocre slow growth conditions.

That theory looked good last year, with the dollar gaining more than 20 per cent against its main trade partners in a matter of months as the crisis took hold. But it sold off sharply towards the end of the year as the Fed cut to zero while the European Central Bank talked tough on inflation.

If the dollar weakens once more, it raises the chance that the US can inflate its way out of problems, but also raises the risk that it does so at the expense of Japan and the eurozone, which would find it harder to export to the US.

Most imponderably, there is China, which manages its currency, and could have a strong incentive to devalue as its economy slows. This would help protect China’s economy, but could be disastrous for everyone else. So any investment scenario for 2009 must include a theory on how the zero-sum game of foreign exchange will play out.

Added to this list of uncertainties are the risks from geopolitics. Oddly, the market’s great fears on this front did not come to pass in 2008. The situation in Iraq improved more than virtually anyone expected, and there was no attack on Iran. It would be good if the same held true in 2009.

Perhaps a consensus forecast for how these issues play out might go as follows. In the next few months, defaults come in at levels worse than foreseen by equity markets, though bett

--------------------------
Russia braced for unrest as crisis bites

By Isabel Gorst in Moscow and Anuj Gangahar in New York

Published: December 27 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 27 2008 02:00

Russia is bracing for further unrest as the rouble yesterday slid to a new low against the euro after a succession of currency devaluations by Moscow in a week.

The move extended six weeks of devaluations by Russia's central bank designed to offset the impact of the global economic crisis and falling oil prices as the country's main export commodity approached its lowest level since 2004.

Mikhail Gorbachev, the former Soviet leader, warned Russia faced "unprecedentedly difficult and dangerous circumstances" and could be "heading into a black hole". "It is not clear what the fate of our rouble will be or if society has sufficient financial and moral resources," he said.

After the depreciation, which was the eighth so far this month, the rouble declined as much as 1.2 per cent to Rbs29.06 versus the dollar yesterday, a four-year low. The rouble has now lost almost 20 per cent of its value against the US currency since August.

Analysts at Barclays Capital said the best case scenario would see Russian policymakers, facing mounting evidence of a recession, allowing a one-off depreciation of 10 per cent or more.

The rouble's slide comes as the government faces scrutiny over its policies. A demonstration earlier this month in the far eastern city of Vladivostok marked the first major challenge to the Kremlin since the onset of the global financial crisis.

Mikhail Sukhodolsky, a deputy interior minister, warned on Christmas Eve that there could be further protests. "The situation may be exacerbated by a growth in frustration of workers over the non-payment of wages or those threatened with dismissal," he said.

His remarks coincided with criticism of the Kremlin's rough handling of the protests in Vladivostok. Moscow-based Omon riot police detained about 61 people in the protests against car import duties designed to prop up domestic car producers, but making foreign vehicles prohibitively expensive for ordinary Russians.

Moscow, which has pledged $200bn to mitigate the effects of the economic downturn, late on Thursday published a list of 295 strategic enterprises entitled to preferential government support.

----------------------------
Moscow tightens grip on Norilsk

By Isabel Gorst in Moscow

Published: December 26 2008 18:34 | Last updated: December 26 2008 18:34

Moscow tightened its grip over the world’s biggest nickel miner on Friday, when shareholders appointed Alexander Voloshin, a former Kremlin chief of staff, as chairman of Norilsk Nickel.

The move comes as government bail-outs to financially stricken Russian business help the Kremlin extend control over strategically important sectors such as energy groups, defence companies and airlines.

Mr Voloshin joined the race for the chairmanship of the Norilsk board after the government took over a 25 per cent stake in the company as collateral for a $4.5bn loan to Oleg Deripaska, the Russian metals tycoon.

Vladimir Potanin, founder of Norilsk and biggest shareholder, agreed to step down as chairman of the company last month after agreeing a truce with Mr Deripaska, who controls Rusal, the Russian metals giant, in a battle for shareholder supremacy.

The two men had been at loggerheads since Rusal bought a 25 per cent stake in Norilsk earlier in the year, touted as a prelude for a takeover.

Sergey Chemezov, the chief executive of Russian Technologies, the state military and industrial holding, withdrew his candidacy for the chairmanship of Norilsk shortly before shareholders voted.

Analysts said Mr Voloshin was a preferable chairman for Norilsk to Mr Chemezov, who is understood to be a close associate of the powerful siloviki, or security forces, clan in the Kremlin.

Rob Edwards, the managing director of metals and mining research at Renaissance Capital, said Norilsk would have “become too siloviki-centric” under the leadership of Mr Chemezov.

Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, the former KGB officer and state tourism chief who took over as chief executive of Norilsk in August, is to keep his role.

Mr Voloshin, who led the Kremlin administration until 2003 and was once chairman of UES, the former Russian state electricity monopoly, is regarded as a shrewd, pro-business politician.

Mr Voloshin “proved himself to be good at keeping different camps and tribes vying for their own interests at UES”, Mr Edwards said.

Mr Strzhalkovsky said on Friday: “We are expecting a hard and difficult time, but we hope that the management of the company and its board will take all necessary steps to allow it to develop and fulfil investment projects.”

Norilsk controls half of the world’s palladium and one fifth of its nickel, a key component in car and steel manufacturing, and has been hit badly by the collapse in world steel prices.

----------------------------
MiG fires warning shot for holders of state-related debt after failing to cover put option on RUB 3bn bond

By Alesia Sidliarevich

Published: December 17 2008 16:24 | Last updated: December 17 2008 16:24

This article is provided to FT.com readers by Debtwire—the most informed news service available for financial professionals in fixed income markets across the world. www.debtwire.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russian aircraft manufacturer MiG became the first completely state-owned borrower to miss a put on its bonds on 11 December, two credit analysts told Debtwire. The company will likely fund the put of the RUB 3bn (USD 115.7bn) before a 30-day grace period expires but the delay triggered alarm bells for investors, they added.

MiG’s failure to cover the put is a warning to investors who assume the Russian government will always step in to help historically strategic businesses, according the two analysts and a research report by UralSib.

A company source said MiG, which makes jet fighters, has applied for state funding to cover the put. The market took a dimmer view on that eventuality as bids for the RUB 3bn bond, MiG-Finance-2, dropped 20 points last week to around 59/87, according to Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) data. MiG also has a RUB 1bn 7.85% domestic bond maturing in June 2009.

“This is the first [missed put] by a directly state-controlled company and it signals that even these companies are not immune to market risks, and that investors should view them carefully,” said one of the analysts.

Bondholders are now likely to re-examine their exposure to state-controlled United Aircraft Corporation, for example, and subsidiaries such as Irkut and Sukhoi Civil Aviation, said a second analyst in Moscow.

The Russian government is reviewing MiG’s application for funding – reportedly up to RUB 20bn worth – and the matter should be resolved within a month, said the company source. An injection of funds would enable MiG to settle its obligations on the RUB 3bn 12% bond, he added.

A source at state-owned lender Sberbank, the payment agent on MiG-Finance-2, said MiG has outlined its predicament to the bank but declined to elaborate.

MiG has total debts of around RUB 40bn (USD 1.44bn) – mostly loans from government banks – and generated sales of just RUB 3.2bn in the first nine months of 2008, estimated both analysts. That puts MiG on track to generate revenues of RUB 4.3bn for FY08, down 25% from the RUB 5.2bn of sales it reported in 2007.

MiG bought the entire RUB 3bn bond back from investors in March and promptly resold the notes on the open market, confirmed the Sberbank source. Investors opted to put substantially all of the five-year issue back to MiG again last week.

MiG is wholly owned by the Russian government. As well as supplying Russia’s Ministry of Defence through state contracts it can sell aircraft to foreign buyers, bypassing state-owned arms exporter Rosoboronexport.

Irkut, another Russian aircraft and components manufacturer, has a USD 125m issue of credit-linked notes issued via MDM Bank in 2006 and maturing next March. The 8.25% issue is quoted in the 90s, according to Renaissance Capital data. Irkut also has a RUB 3.25bn domestic bond that matures in September 2010. That bond pays an 8.74% coupon and is quoted in the mid-80s, according to MICEX data.

Sukhoi Civil Aircraft, which is part of the UAC-owned Sukhoi Company, has a RUB 5bn bond putable in September 2009. The paper is quoted at 87/94, or a yield of 23%-mid to next year’s put option.

Kremlin consolidation

While state funding would enable MiG to pay back its bondholders, it might not solve the company’s longer-term problems, said the first analyst. “[MiG] is on the verge of bankruptcy and even with state support it would be hard to make it profitable again,” he said. “The state is now facing a dilemma: let down the manufacturer of Russia’s trademark jet fighters, or keep feeding it state money.”

The game theory behind that decision depends to a large part on Russia’s execution of a strategy it launched in 2007 to consolidate the country’s military production and aviation sectors using state-controlled companies such as Oboronprom and Rostechnology.

In April this year, Oboronprom was given 15 months to acquire controlling stakes in nine of Russia’s aircraft engine makers and fold them into a single holding company called ODK. The government has opportunistically used rescue loans in the sector to speed that process.

NPO Saturn, a Russian aircraft engine manufacturer, missed a coupon payment on a RUB 2bn domestic bond on 22 September but found the money within days. Then, in advance of a put option on the same bond exercisable on 9 December, Saturn received a loan from state-owned bank VTB that it used to cover the payments. The catch was that the company had to agree to be folded into Oboronprom, which already owns 37% of NPO Saturn.

UMPO, the only other engine manufacturer that was resisting the state’s overtures, has to make a RUB 61.08m coupon payment on 18 December on a RUB 4bn Euroclearable issue from 2006.

AirUnion, which comprises five regional Russian airlines, some of which are majority-owned by the government, has missed a coupon payment on one domestic bond and a put option on a second. Both issues were guaranteed by KrasAir, which is 51% owned by the state.

Government vehicle Rostechnology is working with the City of Moscow to set up RosAvia, an operating company that will take over AirUnion airlines and combine them with carriers operated by Moscow-run Atlant-Soyuz. But it remains unclear how AirUnion’s bondholders would fare in that reorganisation, said the first analyst.

MiG was due to be folded into state-controlled United Aircraft Corporation, which in July this year priced a USD 200m bond due 2010 at 10.25%. Information circulated to investors during the marketing period for the bond said that UAC would be given control over all Russia’s civil and military aircraft manufacturers. The Russian government owns 90% of the company and state ownership is not allowed to drop beneath 75%, as reported.

In July, UAC increased its stake in Irkut to 80.09% from just under 40%.

-----------------------------
Deutsche Bank rejects church charge

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

Published: December 26 2008 23:16 | Last updated: December 26 2008 23:16

Deutsche Bank reacted angrily on Friday after Germany’s senior Protestant bishop accused Josef Ackermann, its chief executive, of turning money-making into a form of “idolatry”.

In a rare and testy public exchange between a prominent German financial institution and a religious leader, Deutsche Bank dismissed as “inappropriate” the remarks by Bishop Wolfgang Huber, chairman of Germany’s evangelical church council.

Germany’s largest bank was upset by the timing of the personal attack, made in a newspaper interview published on Christmas Eve, as well as the substance of the censure.

Criticism of bankers from German politicians and church leaders is far from new but the complaints intensified and became more mainstream after the financial system almost failed in the wake of the mid-September Lehman Brothers collapse.

Swiss-born Mr Ackermann, well known in Germany for setting his bank the goal of earning a pre-tax return on equity of 25 per cent, has long been a popular target as the globally-active Deutsche Bank is often seen as having special, domestic responsibilities. But this attack appears to have taken the bank aback.

Speaking to the Berliner Zeitung newspaper, Bishop Huber argued that bankers had a duty to look beyond the short term and to ensure stability: “Never again should a Deutsche Bank chief executive set a profit goal of 25 per cent.” Such goals drove up profit expectations to unsustainable levels and amounted to “a form of idolatry”, he said. “In the current circumstances, money has become a god.”

The bishop highlighted a widespread view in Germany that the US had largely caused the financial market crisis by encouraging excessive borrowing. He said George W. Bush, US president, and Alan Greenspan, the former US Federal Reserve chairman, had “deluded” ordinary people.

Deutsche Bank may have felt particularly aggrieved by the bishop’s attack because it has not taken advantage of the emergency support made available by Berlin to prop-up the banking system.

Others who have attacked bankers in Germany include Horst Köhler, the country’s president, who in May described global financial markets as “a monster” that “must be put back in its place”. In his Christmas Eve address to Germans, Mr Köhler said the current crisis should be used as a chance to re-order the economy so that capital “serves” society.

----------------------------
Finance workers wary as downturn hits Boston

By Rebecca Knight in Boston

Published: December 26 2008 21:29 | Last updated: December 26 2008 21:29

Gabriel Ruiz, who runs Boston Red Dogs, a set of kiosks that sell hot dogs, sodas and Italian sausages on the cusp of the city’s financial district, has never seen such a lacklustre lunchtime rush.

The queues to his stall at lunchtime used to snake around the corner of Washington Street but not lately. “I’ve been on this street for 18 years and this is the first year that I am not sure if I am going to operate in January, February and March,” said Mr Ruiz, who owns four pushcarts in Downtown Crossing and the Boston Common. “I’ve lost a lot of regular customers to job cuts in the area.”

Because most of Boston’s financial companies are asset managers and private equity firms, rather than investment and commercial banks, they were considered somewhat protected from the impact of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the fire sale of Merrill Lynch in September.

But as the credit crisis deepens and turmoil in the stock market continues, Boston’s financial district has become vulnerable.

Revenue at many of the city’s biggest employers has declined and massive layoffs have been announced. Not only have their assets fallen dramatically, but investors have rebalanced their portfolios away from equity funds – which tend to have higher fees – and toward fixed income and money market funds, which tend to have lower fees.

Earlier this month, Boston’s crown jewels, State Street, the world’s largest money manager for institutions, and Fidelity, the world’s biggest mutual fund group, both announced big cuts. Fidelity said it would shed 3,000 jobs by the first quarter, and State Street said it planned to cut 1,700 jobs, or 6 per cent of its workforce.

“To a certain degree Boston has been a little more insulated,” said Luis Fleites, vice-president at Financial Research Corporation. “New York got hit so hard and so quick. Thousands of jobs just got undone. But [job losses] are starting to happen in Boston now.”

Other Boston-based financial companies have made similar announcements. Last month, MFS Investment Management said it would eliminate 90 jobs, or 5 per cent of its workforce, and Putnam Investments cut 47 jobs, about 2 per cent of its workforce.

“The city is moving from a sense of apprehension, to the aura that New York City is experiencing,” said Mr Fleites.

Overall, the financial sector in the city is projected to lose 16,300 jobs between the second quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2011, according to figures from the New England Economic Partnership, a non-profit forecasting group. Jobs in industries that support the sector such as consulting and law are also likely to be lost, in addition to those jobs of thousands of other people who serve the financial district.

Burt Greenwald, a mutual fund industry consultant, said that the cuts were inevitable. In the past four months, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index has lost nearly 40 per cent. “In a period when most of the large asset management firms have lost 30-50 per cent of their assets in the past year – and more if they had a higher concentration in equities – you have to make readjustments,” he said.

The number of financial services jobs in the state peaked in the second quarter of 2007 at 224,400, according to figures from NEEP.

Some industry experts, however, believe that the city might profit from a brain drain from Wall Street, where tens of thousands of high-paying jobs have already vanished, according to James Ho, a finance professor at Brandeis University’s International Business School, located just outside the city.

“That is the opportunity from the Boston standpoint,” he said. “Wall Street has changed, and employment on Wall Street is going to be less than it was.”

----------------------------
Dubai to spend through crisis

By Simeon Kerr in Dubai

Published: December 26 2008 17:28 | Last updated: December 26 2008 17:28

The Dubai government is planning an expansionary budget to stimulate the economy next year as the emirate seeks to spend its way through the global financial crisis.

Nasser al-Shaikh, director general of the department of finance, said the government is planning to increase by around 20 per cent the budgeted public spending of about Dh30bn ($8.2bn, €5.8bn, £5.6bn) in 2008.

“The role of government is to increase spending during challenging times and provide a stimulus to the economy,” he told the Financial Times. Earlier this week Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, said it too would pursue increased public spending in its 2009 budget.

The Dubai budget, to be announced next month, is one weapon in the government’s arsenal as it tries to undermine fears that the once booming city state has been badly damaged by a crisis of confidence surrounding the global credit crunch, oil price slump and local real estate correction.

But the department of finance, which oversees public bodies such as the utilities company and the transport authority, is still overshadowed financially by state-owned and state-linked companies that play the dominant role in the economy, such as Emirates airlines and Dubai Holding, the conglomerate owned by the ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum.

These commercial entities’ ability to expand in the coming year will be constrained by tougher business conditions and difficulty accessing international capital.

Ratings agencies have raised concerns that Dubai may face problems refinancing its debt of $80bn given the impact of the global financial crisis. Fitch this month downgraded the debt of various Dubai state-linked entities.

Mr Shaikh said the government would focus on infrastructure spending, especially in transport.

“We are going to complete all announced infrastructure projects so once the global economic storm passes we can be the first city to rebound,” he said.

The Roads and Transport Agency this week announced it had raised Dh1.8bn by selling the naming rights for stations on its metro light rail transport system. The move was a good example of efforts to tap unusual revenue streams as Dubai seeks to ease demands on government finances while continuing to expand the roads and bridges network, which it says is now about 80 per cent complete.

The RTA is using the naming revenue to help meet the Dh15.5bn price tag for the two line metro system, scheduled to open in September. It is also reaping increasing revenues from the expanding toll system on main roads and bridges.

----------------------------
Online security hit by new level of threat

By Richard Waters in San Francisco

Published: December 27 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 27 2008 02:00

Internet security has deteriorated markedly this year as a new generation of invasive computer attacks, often masterminded by criminal gangs, has reached a heightened level of sophistication, according to the latest studies of online threats.

"It's getting worse year after year," warned Pat Peterson, chief security researcher at Cisco Systems, who blamed the deterioration on the fact that computer "hacking" is quickly turning into big business. "Capitalism is working against us," he said.

"It's a step back after things had gotten better," added John Pescatore, a security analyst at Gartner.

In particular, computer security experts warn that so-called botnets, or networks of "slave" PCs whose owners do not know their machines have been infected, have become both more prevalent and sophisticated.

By planting a piece of software on an unguarded PC, criminals are able to assemble large networks of machines to carry out tasks for them, such as launching attacks on other internet users.

PCs that are part of botnets, some of which span 1m or more machines, have become harder to identify and root out in recent months as the rogue software has burrowed deeper into the machines, said Paul Wood, a senior analyst at MessageLabs.

Botnets have also become more dangerous as their controllers have learnt how to repurpose the slave networks to carry out different tasks, Mr Peterson said. One network that was originally used to steal users' passwords and send out spam was given an overhaul this year so that it could attack legitimate websites, according to Cisco.

A second big new threat that has become notable this year has been the commandeering of legitimate websites and e-mail accounts to spread malicious software. Rogue software is used to scrutinise public websites and "inject" code into those that are found vulnerable, so that later visitors to the sites can be infected.

The setback for internet security follows several years in which the biggest online threats were successfully held at bay or, in some cases, pushed back. The use of the internet to exploit vulnerabilities in millions of PCs first emerged as a significant threat in 2001, after an outbreak of fast-spreading computer viruses and worms.

Those threats were largely thwarted after a concerted effort by Microsoft and other software makers to plug flaws in their code, and after anti-virus software became more widely used. A subsequent wave of spyware that emerged in the middle of this decade was also pushed back.

However, the prospect of making large amounts of money by stealing sensitive information from millions of users, such as their passwords or financial data, has led to a new and more insidious outbreak of mass internet attacks.

-----------------------------
Russian president signs law to ratify Caspian gas pipeline deal
21:56 | 26/ 12/ 2008

MOSCOW, December 26 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has signed a law to ratify an agreement with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to build a natural gas pipeline along the Caspian coast.

The law was passed by the lower house on December 19 and approved by senators on December 22.

The pipeline, which is part of plans to modernize and expand the Central Asian region's gas network, will run from Turkmenistan along the Caspian coast of Kazakhstan and on to Russia for further transportation to Europe.

The joint agreement to construct the pipeline was signed on December 20, 2007. The pipeline is expected to transport an estimated 30 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan and up to 10 billion cubic meters from Kazakhstan.

---------------------------
企業城下町の税収、大幅減　公共工事など縮小

　急速な企業業績の悪化が大企業や下請け企業の工場が集まる企業城下町の税収を直撃している。特に自動車、電機など地方景気のけん引役だった輸出型産業の立地する裕福な市町村で法人住民税の落ち込みが目立つ。ホール建設中止など事業削減に動き出しているが、地方景気が冷え込む中、雇用や中小企業支援の対策費が重くのしかかっている。富裕自治体に限らず、行政サービスの充実を競い合い支出を膨張してきた多くの自治体は事業の抜本的縮小を含め税金を投入すべき事業の見極めを求められている。

　トヨタ自動車の本社がある愛知県豊田市は2009年度の法人市民税が08年度の当初予算比で約9割減る見通し。「来年の予算規模もまだ決められない」（財政課）状況に陥っている。

-----------------------------
介護報酬、初の増額決定　社会保障審、人手確保へ待遇改善

　社会保障審議会（厚生労働相の諮問機関）は26日、介護保険から介護サービス事業者に払う報酬の改定内容を決めた。来年4月から報酬全体を3％増やし、 2000年の介護保険制度の導入以来初めての引き上げとなる。夜勤や専門性の高い職員が多い事業所への加算を新設するほか、人件費が高い都市部の報酬を手厚くした。介護現場の人手不足の解消や待遇改善に重点を置き、給付抑制方針を転換する。

　社保審の介護給付費分科会が改定案をまとめた。(1)介護従事者の人材確保と処遇改善(2)医療との連携と認知症ケアの充実――などが柱になる。介護現場では労働条件の悪さから離職率が他産業に比べて高いため、職員の待遇改善に重点を置いた。

　介護サービスの利用者は00年度の184万人から06年度に354万人と2倍弱に増えたが、介護職員数はここにきて伸び悩んでおり、人手不足感が強まっている。(26日 23:01)

----------------------------
11月失業率3.9％、人員整理が正社員に波及も

　雇用情勢が一段と悪化してきた。総務省が26日発表した11月の完全失業率（季節調整値）は3.9％となり、前月比0.2ポイントの上昇。雇用調整に着手する業種が広がり、来春までに職を失う非正規労働者は8万5000人にのぼる見通しだ。日本の製造業の両輪である自動車・電気機械の生産調整が加速しており、雇用削減の動きが非正規社員から正社員に広がる可能性も出てきた。

　11月の完全失業者数は256万人。前年同月に比べて10万人増えた。解雇や倒産など勤め先の都合による離職が6万人増えた。売上高の急激な減少を前に賃金調整を経ずに雇用量で調整する企業が増えている。(07:00)

----------------------------
10-12月鉱工業生産、10％超低下も　企業活動、底入れ見えず

　企業の生産が急激に落ち込んでいる。経済産業省が26日発表した11月の鉱工業生産指数（速報）は前月に比べて8.1％低下。今後も減産が続く見通しで、10―12月期は前期比10％を超えるマイナス幅となる公算となった。世界的な需要減速で出荷が急速に落ち込んでおり、企業の在庫率も跳ね上がっている。企業活動の底入れが見えない。

　11月は歴史的な生産減少となったが、企業は12月に減産姿勢を一段と強めているもようだ。経産省がまとめた12月の製造工業生産予測指数は前月に比べて8.0％低下。この低下予測幅は1973年の調査開始以降で最大となった。しかも11業種すべてが減産の予測。1月も前月比2.1％の低下予測。二階俊博経産相は記者会見で、生産統計の動きなどについて「『直下型』に下がってきている」と表現した。(07:00)

---------------------------
流通・サービス、一部で採用増　慢性的な人手不足補う

　流通・サービス業の間で、販売員の採用を増やす動きが出てきた。慢性的な人手不足を補うのが狙いで、2009年春の新卒者を中心に募集を拡大する。製造業を中心に人員削減が加速しており、人材確保の好機と判断した。製造業から慢性的に人手が不足する非製造業への人材シフトで雇用のミスマッチが解消に向かう可能性もある。

　アパレル大手イトキンは09年春の契約社員の採用を今春の2倍の150人に拡大する。百貨店などに派遣している販売職は約7300人にのぼるが、入れ替わりが激しく人手が不足している。今春は150人の採用予定に対し80人にとどまった。10年春も150人以上の採用を目指す。

-----------------------------
製造業、人員になお過剰感　自動車、「10万人超」の可能性も

　急速な需要減少に対応するため製造業では派遣社員や期間従業員などの非正規社員の削減を加速している。自動車業界では完成車メーカー12社合計で今年度末までに1万7000人規模を削減する見通しのほか、電機業界でも公表分だけで国内で6000人近い非正規従業員の削減が計画されている。ただ現在の生産減ペースが続くようだと部品を含む自動車業界全体で10万人以上の削減が必要になる可能性もあり、今後は正社員の削減も検討対象に浮上しそうだ。

　自動車業界ではトヨタ自動車が来年3月末までに非正規従業員を6000人減らして3000人にまで縮小する計画のほか、日産自動車も同じ期間に2000人減らし非正規をゼロにする。(14:07)

-------------------------
大陽日酸、太陽電池材料の新工場　200億円投資、独社と合弁

　工業ガス国内最大手の大陽日酸はドイツの化学大手と共同で、太陽電池材料の工場を国内に新設する。約200億円を投じ、2011年に生産を開始、日本や韓国などアジアの電機メーカーに販売する。世界的な景気後退で、従来の主要顧客である鉄鋼や石化メーカーは減産対応を強めているため、大陽日酸では太陽電池を成長分野とみて、大型投資に踏み切る。

　独エボニックデグサ（フランクフルト）と組み、太陽電池や液晶パネル、半導体の絶縁材料となる「モノシランガス」を生産する。年間生産能力は1000トン。同2000トン強を生産するノルウェーのリニューアブルエナジー（ＲＥＣ）に次ぐ世界2位の生産規模となる見通し。大陽日酸はこれまで他社から仕入れて国内を中心に年300トン弱を販売していたが、工場新設で製販一貫体制を整え、海外販売も本格化する。(13:09)

--------------------------
企業の減益幅32％に悪化　上場1400社の今期、日経集計

　上場企業の業績が急速に悪化している。日本経済新聞社が26日、2009年3月期の見通しを集計したところ、連結経常利益は前期比32％減と11月の上半期決算発表時点の集計（25％減）から1カ月あまりで7ポイント減益幅が拡大した。秋以降の世界景気変調と1ドル＝90円前後に進んだ円高で、自動車や電機など国際展開する製造業を中心に売り上げが急減速。業績予想の追加的な下方修正が相次いでいる。減益幅はさらに拡大する可能性がある。

　集計対象は10年間の業績が継続比較できる3月期決算企業1483社（金融、新興3市場を除く）。経常減益はＩＴ（情報技術）バブル崩壊後の02年3月期以来、7期ぶりで、減益幅もこの時の49％に迫る大きさだ。上場企業は前期、5期連続で最高益を更新したが、利益の水準は一気に5年前に戻る。(07: 00)

---------------------------
12月の国内新車販売３割減　08年通年は320万台、５年連続減少

　国内の自動車販売が深刻な不振に陥っている。12月の新車販売台数（軽自動車を除く）は25日時点で約16万1000台と2007年の同時点に比べ 27％減少した。2カ月連続して3割近い減少となる。08年通年では前年比7％減の320万台前後と5年連続の減少になる見通しだ。

　26日にも新車登録はできるが、例年、年末最終日は手続きが少ない。07年並みの登録（1万3000台強）にとどまった場合は、1968年の調査開始以来、12月としては最も販売台数が少なくなる。(07:00)

---------------------------
銅鉱石、実質２％値下げへ　ＢＨＰ譲歩、資源価格下落が拡大

　日鉱金属など国内銅製錬会社と英豪系資源大手ＢＨＰビリトンは2009年の銅鉱石の価格を3年ぶりに下げる方向で交渉していることが分かった。ＢＨＰが提示した条件を現在の地金相場に当てはめると実質2％下がる計算になる。製錬各社には業界全体で年間約40億円の収益改善につながる見通しで、交渉次第でさらに拡大する可能性もある。世界景気の後退を受けた資源のスポット価格下落の流れが大手企業間の長期取引価格にも広がってきた。

　銅鉱石（純度30％）の価格は国際指標であるロンドン金属取引所（ＬＭＥ）の銅地金価格から加工賃を引いて算出される。製錬会社の取り分となる加工賃について、製錬会社とＢＨＰが交渉、銅鉱石価格は自動的に決まる仕組みとなっている。ＢＨＰがこのほど日本の製錬各社に提示してきた加工賃は1トン当たり 300ドル強。前年の同254ドルと比べると約20％の上昇で、銅鉱石の価格は約2％安くなる計算だ。(07:00)

---------------------------
政府、年金記録改ざん防止へ　「電子私書箱」の活用検討

　政府は年金記録の改ざん防止策として、国民が自身の行政情報を一元管理する「電子私書箱」（仮称）制度の活用を検討する。厚生年金の算定基礎となる標準報酬月額などを本人がネット上で直接確認し、事業主や社会保険事務所の手続き上のミスや改ざんを防げるようにする。

　政府のＩＴ戦略本部の検討会が今年度中にまとめる最終報告書に盛り込む。電子私書箱は主に社会保障に絡んだ個人情報が対象で、2011年度に導入予定。政府の各機関が個別に保有している生年月日や年金加入記録などの個人情報を集約し、本人がインターネットなどで閲覧できるようにする制度だ。(16: 00)

----------------------------
ソマリア沖「まず現行法で海自艦派遣」　政府、１月メド対処要領

　アフリカ・ソマリア沖の海賊対策を巡り、政府は海上自衛隊の護衛艦を来春にも派遣するための準備に着手した。第1段階として現行法に基づく派遣を想定。可能な実施項目を洗い出し、来年1月中旬をメドに基本的な対処要領をまとめる方向だ。武装した海賊にどこまで対応できるかなど武器使用の問題で調整が難航する可能性もある。

　国連安全保障理事会は先にソマリアの海賊拠点攻撃を各国に認める決議を採択。中国も艦船を派遣した。こうした動きも受けて、麻生太郎首相は26日、浜田靖一防衛相に具体策の検討を指示した。河村建夫官房長官も与党側に協力を要請した後、記者団に「政府側も基本的な考え方をまとめる。それをたたき台に（与党も）検討してほしい」と語った。(07:00)

-----------------------------
大学院の独自奨学金が低調、導入は５割どまり

　大学院が独自の奨学金制度を導入している割合は全体の52％にとどまっていることが、文部科学省の「大学院活動状況調査」で分かった。学費の支払いが困難な学生向けの授業料免除制度も37％と3校に1校どまりだった。関係者からは「大学院の学生への経済支援を拡充すべきだ」との意見が出ている。

　調査は2007年10月時点の状況について、大学院を置いている国公私立の590大学について集計した。(16:00)

----------------------------
私大、３校に１校が赤字　07年度、私学事業団調べ

　2007年度に年間の支出が収入を上回って赤字だった4年制私大が194校となり、全体の3校に1校に達したことが、日本私立学校振興・共済事業団のまとめで分かった。前年度より15校増え、過去最多を更新した。赤字校の数は10年前の4倍。小規模校を中心に少子化の影響を大きく受けた。大学を取り巻く経営環境は一段と厳しくなっている。

　米国発の金融危機の直撃を受け、駒沢大がデリバティブ（金融派生商品）取引で約154億円もの損失を出すなど、08年度は資産運用で多額の損を被った大学も少なくないとみられ、私大の財務体質はさらに悪化している可能性がある。今後、経費の削減など財政健全化圧力が一段と高まりそうだ。(09:04)

----------------------------
借金清算で８歳女児結婚…サウジ、人権団体など批判

　サウジアラビア司法当局は２６日、父親の借金を清算するため債権者の男性（４７）と結婚させられた８歳の女児について、結婚の無効確認を求めた女児の母親の申し立てを退けた。人権団体関係者は「サウジでは少女らが男たちの取引材料にされている」と非難している。米ＣＮＮテレビが伝えた。

　母親の弁護士によると、司法当局は母親が「法的な保護者に当たらない」ことを理由に申し立てを退けた。ＣＮＮは少女の両親が「別居中」と伝えているが、法的に離婚しているかどうかは明らかでない。

　イスラム教の中でも最も厳格なワッハーブ派を国教とするサウジは極めて保守的な社会で、女性の権利が大幅に制限されている。サウジ政府系人権団体「人権委員会」スポークスマンのズハイル・ハリシ氏は「（このような形の）児童の結婚はサウジ政府も署名している国際協定違反だ」と強く批判している。（共同）

ZAKZAK 2008/12/27

----------------------------
三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀が暴力団系に融資…地上げ資金６２億

　朝日新聞は２７日朝刊で、三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀行（旧東京三菱銀行）が２００３－０５年、都内の住宅販売会社を融資の受け皿とし、暴力団と関係の深かった不動産会社の元社長（４８）側に約６２億円の地上げ資金を提供していたと報じた。メガバンクと暴力団筋の不明朗な関係とは－。

　同紙によると、地上げが行われたのはＪＲ渋谷駅に近い渋谷区南平台の商業地（約６９４８平方メートル）。地上げを仕掛けた元社長は住宅販売会社を介在させる融資を東京三菱銀行の新宿副都心支店幹部（当時）に相談し、同支店が“迂回融資”を了承したとされる。

　同行の呼びかけで他の銀行も加わった融資総額は２１６億円に達し、土地の転売に成功した元社長側は約９０億円の利益を得たという。

　元社長は１９９１年ごろ、指定暴力団極東会組長（９５年に死亡）らと連携し、横浜市にある自動車学校の経営権取得や敷地の地上げを画策。職員の労働組合がこれを不当として起こした訴訟の判決で、「（元社長は）暴力団組長と交際し、一緒に地上げを計画した」と認定されている。

　映画「金融腐食列島『呪縛』」でも描かれたように、９０年代後半、大手銀による総会屋への利益供与事件が続発。全国銀行協会連合会（当時）は、暴力団などとの絶縁を宣言した倫理憲章を採択したが、今回発覚した融資は同憲章採択後の０３－０５年のこと。

　三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀行広報部は同紙の取材に「個別のことなのでコメントできない」としている。

ZAKZAK 2008/12/27

----------------------------
米大手スポンサー続々撤退…ＷＢＣ運営の軸はＪマネー

アサヒビールなどの協賛

　米大リーグに忍び寄る不況の暗い影が、来年３月のワールド・ベースボール・クラシック（ＷＢＣ）にも忍び寄っている。２００６年の第１回大会で名前を連ねた大手公式スポンサー企業が次々と撤退する意向を表明しているのだ。

　米大手ネットワーク、ブルームバーグの報道によると、前回大会では２６社以上の協賛企業があったが、今大会ではクレジットカードの大手マスターカード社が撤退する予定。同社の広報担当者は「わが社が行ってきた他の協賛と同様に、辞退することのできない大会ではあったが…」と無念そうに語っている。

　また、バドワイザーなどで知られる大手ビール会社アンハイザー・ブッシュ社も前回は米国大会、プエルトリコ大会を協賛したが、今大会は手を引くものとみられている。同社はＷＢＣから撤退することで、大リーグ機構と２６球団のスポンサーとしての役割を堅持したいとしている。

　さらに、米大手飲料会社のペプシも消極的とされ、大手３社の公式スポンサーがそろって撤退するのは痛手だ。

　ただ、大リーグ機構側は運営には自信を見せており、アルコール飲料関連では日本のアサヒビール社、南米のプレジデンテ社など５社が協賛している。米国内よりも日本など海外予選地区で人気の高いＷＢＣだけに、ジャパンマネーは不可欠。“米国外向けの大会”との性格をより強めつつある。

　同機構担当者は「ビール関連企業の協賛については満足している。もともと大会の性格は参加諸国での売り上げと野球の普及を目指したもの。全スポンサーの収入は前回大会を上回る見込み」としており、米大手企業が撤退しても、各国からの協賛で大会は不況の中でなお競争力があることを強調している。

　報酬や滞在ホテルのグレードの低さなど何かと吝嗇（りんしょく）運営が取り沙汰された前回大会。良く言えば、国の名誉を賭けた清貧の戦ではある。

ZAKZAK 2008/12/27

-----------------------------
労働組合：日野自動車ユニオン、雇い止め撤回もちつき訴え

　雇用契約を打ち切られた日野自動車日野工場（東京都日野市）の期間従業員らで結成した労働組合「日野自動車ユニオン」が２７日、工場近くの公園で結成記念の「もちつき大会」を開き、雇い止めの撤回などを訴えた。

　組合員のほか、支援する全日本建設運輸連帯労働組合のメンバーら約５０人が参加。雇用と住まいの確保に向け、団結して会社側と折衝していくことを確認した。参加者は「解雇をやめろ」などと声を張り上げながら、きねを振り上げた。

　日野自動車は期間従業員７００人の削減を打ち出している。大半は会社の寮に入っており、雇い止めになれば住む場所も失われる。

　佐藤弘之委員長（３２）は１１月、契約期間満了の１２月末以降は契約を更新しないと会社から通告された。団体交渉や現状を訴えるビラ配りなどの運動をしてきたが、状況は変わっていない。「経済状況はさらに悪くなり、今後も多くの期間社員が解雇されると思う。会社は我々を人間扱いしてほしい」と話した。

　また、来年１月末に契約が切れる期間社員の男性（２５）は「まだ会社から何の連絡もないが、自分も更新されないかもしれない。寮を出されたら、どう生活すればいいのか」と不安を募らせた。

----------------------------
労組：フリーの音楽家、ライターらが結成

　フリーの音楽家やライター、自営業者らが、不況による報酬の不払いや引き下げに対応するために労働組合を結成した。会社に雇われて給与を受け取る労働者と違い、個人事業主による組合はまれ。メンバーは「私たちの仕事は、実質的には委任や請負、外注で働く委託労働。労組を通じて仕事や生活を守りたい」と話している。

　この組合は「連合ユニオン東京・委託労働者ユニオン」（向笠真弘委員長）。２３日に結成集会が開かれ、２２人が参加した。音楽家やライターのほか、小さな事務所や自宅でパソコンなどを利用するビジネスＳＯＨＯ（ソーホー＝スモールオフィス、ホームオフィス）を営む人たちだ。

　メンバーによると、経済情勢が悪化し始めた１０月ごろから、報酬の不払いや減額が目立ち始めたという。しかし、個人で企業側と交渉すれば仕事を止められるのではないかという心配から、泣き寝入りするケースが多いという。組合では、そうした仕事に関する情報の交換や、団体交渉を通じての業務上のトラブル解決、福利厚生システムの整備などに取り組む。

　組合メンバーで、農業関連の企画などをしているＮＰＯ役員の岡本健次郎さんは「不払いや報酬の一方的な切り下げが増えている。組合を作ることで、会社との交渉もやりやすくなる」と話す。

　組合結成を支援した連合東京の古山修さんは「会社が倒産した場合、労働者の賃金は労働債権として優先的に保全されるが、個人事業主の報酬は売掛金などと同じ一般債権の扱いになってしまう。まとまって意思表明をすることが重要だ」と結成の意義を強調した。　個人事業主は、労働時間などを定めた労働基準法上の労働者にはならないが、労働の対価として報酬を受け取っているため、労働組合法では労働者として認められている。プロ野球選手や俳優の労働組合がその典型とされる。

-------------------------------
石油元売り大手、１月以降も減産　化学産業の需要低迷

2008年12月26日20時55分

　石油元売り大手の新日本石油と出光興産は０９年１月以降もガソリンや灯油などの減産を続ける。ガソリンの売れ行きは夏以降の値下がりで回復の兆しがみえる一方で、ナフサ（粗製ガソリン）を原料に使う化学産業の稼働率が下がっているためだ。

　最大手の新日本石油は原油からガソリンや灯油などに精製する処理量を０９年１月、前年同月より２５％減の３９５万キロリットルにする。また、出光興産の減産計画では０９年１～３月の処理量を前年同期より７％減らし、計８００万キロリットルにする。新日石の中村雅仁常務は「来年２月以降もこの減産傾向は続く」と話す。

　ただ、ガソリン需要をみると、１１月は前年同月比１０％減だったのが、１２月は３％減まで回復する見込みという。

　石油連盟によると、国内の製油所全体の稼働率は１０月時点で７３％。ガソリンやナフサの在庫は依然として高い水準で、各社とも減産が迫られている。