The Short View: Bond hindsight

The Short View: Bond hindsight

By John Authers

Published: December 10 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 10 2008 02:00

How could you have made money this year, without taking big risks? With hindsight, the answer was: get out of stocks and buy US Treasury bonds.

In January, 10- and 30-year treasuries were yielding somewhat more than 4 per cent, which had attractions in itself.

But looking at the price of bonds, excluding their income, and comparing it with stocks, the Barclays Capital US aggregate index for bonds dated for 10 years or longer has beaten the S&P 500 stock index this year by 53.7 per cent. This reflects a correction. Last month, before the rescue of Citigroup, the bond index had beaten the S&P by 77 per cent - with some yield to come on top of that.

This was the return available to any macro hedge fund manager who borrowed the S&P at the beginning of the year and sold it, and used the funds to buy bonds. Those not prepared to take such a risk might have kept a long position in stocks (which would have lost money) but recouped a lot of it by investing in bonds.

The opportunities to mitigate the damage for UK investors, based in sterling, one of the year's worst-performing currencies, are particularly interesting. In sterling terms, the Barclays index has gained 27.5 per cent (having peaked at 30 per cent), and again there is yield to come on top of this.

Should these moves have been obvious in January? They accorded with common sense. Sterling was blatantly overvalued. To dive into bonds and out of stocks, you needed to be confident that a recession was coming (not a daring call), and also that it would be deflationary, not inflationary. That took more courage, and investors' sentiment did not turn decisively towards deflation until the middle of the year.

For now, such strong outperformance suggests that bonds are due to take a break. They certainly served their purpose for investors this year.

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UK contraction speeding up

By Norma Cohen

Published: December 9 2008 10:27 | Last updated: December 10 2008 00:30

The economy is contracting at a much faster pace than appeared likely just a few weeks ago, one of Britain’s leading economic forecasters said on Tuesday, after official figures showed industrial output in October fell at its fastest rate for nearly six years.

The respected National Institute of Economic and Social Research said that after reviewing the latest industrial production data on Tuesday, it believed the economy shrank by 1.0 per cent in the three months to November, and that it would prove to have contracted by even more than that for the fourth quarter.

In the three months to September, the economy contracted by 0.5 per cent, with the latest forecast suggesting activity was shrinking at twice the rate of just a few months ago.

Official data showed industrial output fell by 1.8 per cent in the three months to the end of October compared with the previous three months, with manufacturing dropping 1.4 per cent between September and October.

In the month of October alone, the index of industrial production fell by 1.7 per cent from the previous month, the biggest decline since January 2003.

The Office for National Statistics said that in the three months to the end of October, manufacturing output fell 2 per cent and the decreases were widespread.

“The government faces the real risk that, despite the measures it took in last month’s [pre-]Budget [report], output will fall more sharply than it expected to the end of next year,” NIESR said. “The main problem it needs to address very urgently is the availability of bank credit; further interest reductions are unlikely to have much effect,” it added.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said the latest official data suggested that the 0.5 per cent contraction in third-quarter gross domestic product could be revised to a 0.6 per cent shrinkage. “Bottom line: October manufacturing data managed to surprise significantly on the downside, despite very weak pre-release expectations. There were also large downward revisions to data in the previous months,” Goldman Sachs said.

The weakness in the industrial output figures was widespread with not one manufacturing category recording a significant increase in the three months to the end of October.

The most significant falls were 4.6 per cent in the transport equipment industries – which includes the hard-pressed car sector – as well as 3.4 per cent in the paper, printing and publishing sectors and a 2.6 per cent drop in basic metals and metal products.

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Athens haunted by spirit of student rebellion

By Kerin Hope in Athens

Published: December 9 2008 18:17 | Last updated: December 9 2008 18:17

Constantine Karamanlis, the most successful 20th-century Greek prime minister, said: “Greece can be almost impossible to govern.”

His remark seemed apt on Tuesday as his namesake and nephew struggled to impose his authority after three nights of street battles, arson and looting across central Athens.

The centre-right government of Costas Karamanlis, the prime minister, appears to have lost control as unrest triggered by the killing by police of Alexandros Grigoropoulos, a 15-year-old student, continued unabated.

Meeting political leaders on Tuesday to discuss ways to end the worst domestic violence in six decades, Mr Karamanlis’s attempt to build consensus quickly collapsed. Instead, he found himself fending off calls for an early election.

Greece’s populist opposition leaders have exacerbated tensions by calling for huge street protests rather than quiet reflection.

The violence highlights the unwillingness of successive governments to tackle young people’s concerns, from the poor quality of education provided by a deeply politicised university system to frustration over the lack of job opportunities.

Many young Greeks feel they have been excluded by a political and business establishment that puts family links above qualifications.

“You come back from abroad with a master’s degree and have to work for €600 [$779, £526] a month in an unrelated field,” said Panayotis Adamopoulos, an electronics engineer. “How are you supposed to build a career?”

State-run universities, which have a stranglehold on Greek higher education, are inadequately staffed and funded, according to professors with teaching experience in western Europe.

In spite of high economic growth rates since the mid-1990s, annual spending on higher education is less than €5,000 per student – the lowest in the eurozone, at about 20 per cent below Portugal and 25 per cent below Spain.

Unemployment among young graduates is believed to exceed 20 per cent, although overall jobless rates have averaged less than 8 per cent in the last two years.

“Our long-term problems are not the budget deficit but education and, in a broader sense, the rule of law,” says Yannis Stournaras, an Oxford-educated economics professor at Athens University.

An attempt by Mr Karamanlis two years ago to modernise higher education was foiled by three months of street protests by students, backed by professors who were reluctant to upgrade teaching standards and face peer reviews.

Mr Karamanlis was also unable to win the cross-party support needed to lift a constitutional ban on police entering university premises, a leftover from a period of left-right political confrontation four decades ago.

Students have enjoyed a privileged status in Greek society because of their role as the instigators of a rebellion in 1973 against Greece’s military dictatorship, which led to its collapse the following year. As a result, politicians have been unwilling to crack down on protesters and extremists who exploit the so-called campus asylum regulation, a ban enshrined in the constitution.

This week self-styled anarchists barricaded inside the Athens Polytechnic have been openly stockpiling fire bombs and other missiles to be used in demonstrations, safe in the knowledge they are beyond the reach of the police.

Authorities have tolerated for years the presence of an anarchist community in Exarcheia, a student district filled with bars and cafés where police are said to turn a blind eye to drug dealing and even protection rackets.

Periodic clashes between riot police and hooded youths in Exarcheia have in the past been seen as a ritual for letting off steam.

Grigoropoulos was among a group of teenagers who had been taunting police – a regular occurrence at weekends – when he was killed on Saturday night.

“Going down to Exarcheia has been a kind of Saturday-night entertainment with an extra edge,” said Apostolos Hatziyannis, who used to own a bar in the neighbourhood.

With police under strict instructions this week not to use firearms at demonstrations, the extremists have seized the initiative.

“The students protest and go home, then the anarchists come out and lay waste to the city centre,” said Taki Michas, a commentator for Eleftherotypia, a leftwing Athens daily newspaper.

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Global demand for oil to plummet

By Javier Blas in London and Krishna Guha in Washington

Published: December 9 2008 20:09 | Last updated: December 9 2008 20:09

Global oil demand will collapse next year and commodities will not return to the highs they reached this summer in the foreseeable future, two authoritative reports said on Tuesday as they forecast a long and painful worldwide recession.

The stark conclusions came as the World Bank’s chief economist predicted that the world faced “the worst recession since the Great Depression”.

The US energy department said global oil demand will fall this year and next, marking the first two consecutive years’ decline in 30 years.

“The increasing likelihood of a prolonged global economic downturn continues to dominate market perceptions, putting downward pressure on oil prices,” it said, forecasting that demand would drop 50,000 barrels a day this year and a hefty 450,000 b/d in 2009. US oil demand will drop next year to the lowest level in 11 years.

Meanwhile, the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report said the commodities boom of the past five years – which drove up prices 130 per cent – had “come to an end”.

The World Bank’s analysis of the commodities boom contrasts with the prevalent view among natural resources companies – and most Wall Street analysts – that the ongoing price drop is a correction within an upward trend.

Although it ruled out a return to the torrid high prices of this summer, it said commodities prices would not fall back to the depressed levels of the 1990s.

Oil would return to about $75 a barrel within the next three years, it said, while food would trade 60 per cent higher than in 2003, but about half below this year’s record.

“Over the longer run, the price of extracted commodities should fall,” the bank said, adding that because of slower population and income growth, world demand for raw materials will ease.

Andrew Burns, the leading author of the report, dismissed the idea – widely supported among the industry and international bodies such as the International Energy Agency – that the credit crunch could result in higher prices when the economy recovers as companies cancel supply expansion projects.

The bank forecast that world trade – an engine of growth for many developing countries – would contract for the first time since 1982.

Justin Lin, the World Bank’s chief economist, said the current downturn was likely to see simultaneous recessions in most of the industrialised world, and that these recessions were likely to last longer than in the early 1980s, and the decline in growth would be more universal than in past episodes in recent decades.

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Rome’s colonial past key to Libya’s Eni stake

By Guy Dinmore in Rome

Published: December 9 2008 18:25 | Last updated: December 9 2008 18:25

Libya’s decision to buy a stake of up to 10 per cent in Eni, Italy’s oil and gas company, was agreed in advance with Italy’s centre-right government and assisted by Rome’s agreement to pay compensation for its period of colonial rule, official sources said on Tuesday.

Franco Frattini, Italy’s foreign minister, on Tuesday gave a green light to the deal, saying he saw no political problems in the stake. He told reporters that the notice given by Libya “demonstrates their intention of not seeking control of the company, but a financial investment”.

Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s prime minister, had warned of the dangers of oil-rich countries making unwelcome bids for Italian companies. Rome seemed to be caught unawares in October when Libyan investors built a 4.23 per cent in UniCredit when the Italian bank was weakened by the global credit crisis.

The comments by Mr Frattini, who is co-ordinating a government committee examining the issue of sovereign wealth funds, underlined that Rome welcomed Libya’s intervention and was informed in advance. The Italian government owns about 30 per cent of Eni.

Libya’s decision – announced at the weekend – reinforces a long and close energy relationship, as well as strong political ties between the two countries.

Mr Berlusconi’s signing last August of a colonial compensation agreement worth $5bn over 25 years with Muammar Gaddafi, the Libyan leader, facilitated Libya’s entry into Eni, official sources said.

Eni is the largest and longest established foreign oil company in Libya, extracting more than half of Libya’s production of some 1.7m barrels per day, with equity of 300,000 b/d. Italy is the largest purchaser of Libyan oil.

Libya has also displayed a canny sense of timing. Last June, when oil was trading at some $140 a barrel, it negotiated better terms for itself with Eni while extending Eni’s concessions for another 25 years. At that moment, Eni’s share price was €24.50.

With oil closing below $40 last week, shortly before Libya said it would buy a stake, Eni’s shares were trading closer to €15.50. They have since risen above €17, making a 10 per cent stake worth more than €7bn ($9.1bn).

It is not known when Libya will make its purchase on the market, if it has not already done so.

Libyan officials have also mentioned a possible investment in Telecom Italia.

However, industry sources said on Tuesday that this was not likely to happen. Libya has long held a stake in Fiat, the carmaker, and Juventus, the football club.

Italy is keen to consolidate its leading energy position in Libya, which has Africa’s largest known oil reserves, before US energy companies can catch up as relations between Washington and Tripoli improve.

One aspect of the relationship between Libya and Italy that analysts say has troubled the Bush administration is an agreement that Eni has made with Russia’s Gazprom to swap oil assets in a major Libyan oil field for assets in Russia. Details of this agreement have not been finalised.

Paolo Scaroni, Eni’s chief executive, happened to be meeting Igor Sechin, Russia’s deputy prime minister, in Milan when news of the Libyan stake-building emerged on Sunday.

Eni said the two sides agreed that Eni and Gazprom should implement all their projects “as soon as possible”.

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Storm clouds gather over Tokyo

By Mure Dickie in Tokyo

Published: December 9 2008 19:17 | Last updated: December 9 2008 19:17

With a dramatic revision of third-quarter gross domestic product, Japanese government statisticians have offered a chilly corrective to anyone still sanguine about the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

Just months ago, many observers thought that Japan, with its relatively insulated banking system, was well placed to weather the international financial crisis and its economic effects.

Tuesday’s revised data, however, showed that in the third quarter at least, Japan was in a slump considerably deeper than that of the US, the centre of global financial woes.

Nor is there much sign that Japan’s economic gloom is about to lift.

In September, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said business conditions were getting worse in nine out of the 10 regions into which it divides Japan – with the area around the southern island of Okinawa the only holdout.

On Tuesday, however, Meti’s latest assessment downgraded even Okinawa, as the recent rise of the yen kept foreign tourists away from its sandy beaches.

Japan is now grappling with consumption undermined by job losses and worsening consumer sentiment, slowing exports, weak capital expenditure, and a private housing sector showing “no evidence of a demand recovery”, Chiwoong Lee, a Goldman Sachs economist, wrote in a research note.

Kiichi Murashima, managing director for economic analysis at Nikko Citigroup in Tokyo, says Japan’s economy is facing an external shock that is “probably the strongest” since the second world war – and that any revival of export demand will not be rapid.

“I think GDP will continue to contract until the second quarter of next year,” Mr Murashima says.

Boosting the economy and easing the pain suffered by victims of the slowdown have now become the government’s uncontested priorities – yet public expectations remain limited.

Delayed passage of a stimulus package has underlined the difficulty of effective action at a time of political turmoil, with a prime minister suffering a calamitous fall in opinion polls that has prompted grumblings among ruling party colleagues.

With even relatively modest proposed cash handouts proving unpopular with the public and the government carrying a heavy debt burden, a clear agenda for fiscal stimulus that might boost domestic consumption has yet to emerge.

Meanwhile, Masaaki Shirakawa, governor of the Bank of Japan, appears reluctant to cut the central bank’s policy target rate from an already meagre 0.3 per cent.

With an export revival widely seen as the only way out of the slump, Japan’s equities markets are paying more attention to the stimulus plans of the US and China as a gauge for the domestic economic outlook.

Indeed, in spite of the downward revision to third-quarter GDP, Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 shares index closed 0.8 per cent higher on Tuesday at 8,395.87.

Rather than focusing on a lagging indicator, investors – already well aware Japan is in recession – instead pushed up shares of machinery companies such as Komatsu that are seen as benefiting from the US stimulus plan proposed by Barack Obama, president-elect.

“Everybody is waiting for Mr Obama to be president and expecting that he will do something significant to revitalise global economy and markets,” said Shinichi Ichikawa, Japan equity strategist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. “Most of the bad news has been discounted into the market. The Tokyo market is losing the volatility it had with respect to economic data.”

Nor will managers be overly shocked by the new GDP figure, particularly since even relatively dramatic data revisions are hardly exceptional in Japan.

“I don’t think it will have any impact on consumer or corporate sentiment,” says Mr Murashima of Nikko Citigroup. “But there are so many other things that we should be cautious or pessimistic about.”

Some observers managed to find a silver lining in the GDP revision. Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics, said the cut in estimated private inventories that accounted for much of the recalculation suggested companies were at least acting in a way that could help to shorten the recession.

Meanwhile, the pressure on the government for a fiscal stimulus meant that the cut in recorded government spending would not be a lasting worry, Mr Jessop wrote in a research note.

But such comfort has limits. “The downward revision . . . is perhaps not quite as bad as it looks,” Mr Jessop wrote. “But it is still bad.”

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Sun, sea and suffering for Irish entrepreneurs

By John Murray Brown

Published: December 10 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 10 2008 02:00

Sleeping four to a tent in a military style bootcamp in Haiti is not every executive's idea of a useful or even entertaining way to spend their valuable time.

But for the past two years the Irish operation of Ernst & Young has taken a group of Ireland's most promising business people for a week's retreat to this poverty-stricken Caribbean island.

The initiative is part of the Irish Entrepreneur of the Year award, the local version of the global competition conducted by the business consultancy. Other such assemblies of contestants for business competitions are typically less challenging and more likely to involve golf or opera. But E&Y's Irish office set out to do something a bit different with its entrepreneurs.

"We wanted the contestants to be really challenged," says Enda Kelly, a former tax partner who runs what has become Ireland's best-known business award. "We wanted to bring them to an environment they would really struggle in. Now these guys triumph in adversity - so we had to look for real adversity. So we went to Haiti, and by God did they meet adversity."

The trip is not strictly part of the competition, although the contestants did not seem aware of that. The idea was to see how they could harness their business skills in Haiti to help locals set up a number of projects such as reclaiming an irrigation dam and setting up an acquaculture venture. It sounds like the format for a reality TV show, as contestants are thrown into an unfamiliar foreign environment, in uncomfortably humid conditions, with few creature comforts.

Certainly, the strange choice of location did make an impression. "I'd been to the Dominican Republic for a family holiday, and that's the other half of the island and that was very poor but nothing to compare with Haiti," says Lord Kilclooney, owner of the Alpha Group of newspapers, former deputy leader of the Ulster Unionist party and, at 70, the oldest of the competitors.

Not only is Haiti one of the world's poorest countries, but it also suffers from endemic lawlessness such that the contestants had 24-hour armed guards wherever they went.

"We flew into Port au Prince. That was probably the most intimidating part of the journey. It just didn't look like the sort of place you might like to wander outside the airport," says Patricia O'Hagan, managing director of Core Systems, a Belfast software company.

"We were really out of our comfort zone," says David Bobbett, chief executive of Dublin-based H&K kitchen equipment company.

When Mr Kelly launched the Irish version of the competition in 1998, the main aim was to acclaim Irish business people, who he says were largely derided by the public and seen as "chancers" or untrustworthy. "We started as a typical awards programme, hauling people out as role models," he says. But by 2005 he had the idea to develop the programme during a trip to Harvard Business School with that year's contestants.

"It occurred to me that the academic we were all listening to imparted at most 20 per cent of the learning in that room. The rest came from the contributions of our entrepreneurs. What the academic did was he captured it. It was then I started looking at structuring our business awards programme to do the same."

On route for Haiti, Mr Kelly arranged for two days of seminars in Miami given by a noted expert on corporate social responsibility - Kellie McElhaney, a professor at the Haas School of Business at Berkeley in California.

"When we were talking to Kellie about the trip, she had never heard anything so daft in her life. But she came down to Haiti too. In fact, she only charged us for the two days in the classroom," says Mr Kelly.

Dragging busy people away from the demands of their businesses is a task. E&Y encouraged contestants leave their laptops behind, though mobile phones were allowed for essential calls.

But in spite of the occasional distraction of business demands back home, all agreed the experience of a week in Haiti forced contestants to think about their own businesses in a new light.

"As an entrepreneur you can get a bit myopic and focus on the ground all the time, not on the horizon. Working with other people who are completely outside your purview was very exciting," says Terence Brannigan, head of Resource, a contract cleaning and other soft services company.

The contestants not only left something behind but also learnt to work together, they say. Typically entrepreneurs are big on self-belief, but are not always good team players. Sean Roland, president of Hibernia College, an e-learning company, says: "I was expecting a lot of preening of feathers but that was all left at home in Ireland."

Johnny Flaherty, of C&F, a Galway toolmaker and overall winner of the awards finals announced at the end of October, says: "If you could get a workforce to work the way this group of entrepreneurs did for this week in Haiti, it would be a fantastic company."

And between the contestants, alliances have been forged that would not have happened in the normal course of business - or in a few rounds of golf. "I have got so much business out of the trip, business I wouldn't have even thought of targeting," says James Kilbane, chairman of Grafton Recruiting, a Dublin-based recruitment company.

"Entrepreneurs are often great communicators. They know their customers. They know their suppliers and their advisers but they often haven't met many other entrepreneurs. Now they will each know about 100 entrepreneurs. Many of them say it is the best network they have," says Mr Kelly.

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Brazil farmers lose debt battle

By in Rondonópolis

Published: December 10 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 10 2008 02:00

Emerson Spigosso, a 34-year-old farmer in Mato Grosso state, central Brazil, has no idea how to pay his debts.

"The bank came to take my combine harvesters away but they couldn't find them," he says. "So they executed my debt through the courts. There's no way I can pay."

Like many local farmers, Mr Spigosso invested in land and machinery earlier this decade, as Brazil rose to prominence as a global supplier of soya and other foods.

But drought, crop disease, a strengthening currency and awful infrastructure have eroded the advantages Mato Grosso's farmers used to have over competitors in the US, Argentina and southern Brazil.

Now the global credit crunch has brought their difficulties to a crisis. Banks are repossessing farm machinery. Credit for fertiliser and other inputs has dried up. Soya production in the state is likely to fall by 10 per cent this year, farmers say. Next year, it could fall by two-thirds.

Until recently, Mato Grosso's farmers had little to complain of. Between 1990 and 2004, the amount of cultivated land in the state more than quadrupled, from 1.9m to 8.6m hectares - an area bigger than Austria. Today, Mato Grosso produces 30 per cent of the soya in Brazil, or 8 per cent of total world output.

But from the 2004-2005 season, things began to go wrong. Two successive harvests were hit by drought and disease. Brazil's currency strengthened steadily against the US dollar, eroding farmers' earnings.

Such difficulties exposed others. Farmers in Mato Grosso are up to 2,000km from the ports of Santos and Paranaguá, and up to 1,500km from Porto Velho, an inland port on a tributary of the Amazon which itself is 1,900km from the Atlantic coast. Most crops are carried along atrocious roads on double-trailer trucks, a hugely inefficient system. According to Agroconsult, a farm consultancy, this season it will cost $106 a tonne to ship soya to port from Mato Grosso, compared with an average of $30 in the US.

As difficulties have mounted, many farmers have got deep in debt. Subsidised finance for farm machinery, for example, is provided by the BNDES, Brazil's national development bank, channelled through high street banks and others run by manufacturers such as John Deere and Case New Holland, who shoulder the risk of non-performance.

Most loans are paid back over five years. When farmers ran into trouble in 2005, the government ruled instalments due that year could be paid in 2010. Then it said instalments due in 2006 could be paid in 2011. In 2007, it said farmers must pay 15 per cent of what they owed, and the rest in 2012. This year, it said farmers must pay 40 per cent, and the rest in 2013.

In Mato Grosso last week, the FT spoke to 26 farmers, just one of whom had made his 40 per cent payment this year, by selling land. The government has provided R$500m ($203m, €156m, £137m) in credit to help pay loans on machinery, but most cannot use it because they have no collateral.

Mr Spigosso's situation is typical. He bought one combine harvester in 2001 for R$220,000 and another in 2003 for R$280,000. Because of accumulated interest, the debt on his two machines has grown to R$800,000, while the machines' value has fallen to less than half that amount.

Altogether, the government has provided R$13bn in extra farm finance this year but, like the loans for machinery, few farmers in Mato Grosso can use it. Ana Laura Menegatti of MB Agro, a farm consultancy in São Paulo, says that out of R$49bn made available to finance this year's planting before the emergency funding, just R$18.5bn was actually lent to farmers nationwide. "Banks don't like the risk and there is too much bureaucracy, so very little finance gets to the farmers," she says.

The situation has been aggravated this year because big trading companies such as Bunge, ADM and Cargill are lending much less to farmers than usual. Luis Carlos Guedes, head of agribusiness at Banco do Brasil, a government-controlled bank, says big traders supply about half the farm credit in Mato Grosso and have pulled back sharply because of the credit crunch.

He says the government should break the cycle of endlessly delayed payments on subsidised credit, which costs about R$4bn a year, and spend the money instead on instruments to guarantee a minimum level of income to producers. This would give banks the security they need to lend.

Edílson Guimarães, secretary for farm policy at the ministry of agriculture, says the proposal makes sense but that the government has shorter-term problems, such as the stock of outstanding debt, to deal with first.

As one farmer in Mato Grosso put it, the Banco do Brasil proposal is "our dream solution". But while funding remains unavailable, the farmers' predicament can only get worse.

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Sharp drop in Argentine wheat output forecast

By Jude Webber in Buenos Aires

Published: December 10 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 10 2008 02:00

Wheat output from Argentina, the world's number four exporter, is set to fall by more than 37 per cent in 2008-09 as slumping commodities prices, state regulation and a combination of drought, frost and searing heat in farming regions have battered prospects for the agricultural sector.

The area sown with wheat will be at a 30-year low and producers' groups say this will be compounded by a drop of up to 25 per cent in the 2008-09 harvest of corn, of which Argentina is the world's number two exporter.

"We're expecting wheat production of 10m tonnes in 2008-09, compared with 16m in 2007-08. It's the worst in a decade," said Mario Llambías, president of Argentina's Rural Confederation, one of four big producers' associations.

The drop in Argentina's cereals exports will have ramifications not only at home - farming is the top foreign exchange earner - but also beyond, as it is a key supplier to countries across the globe.

Although this year's world wheat harvest is much better than last, Pedro Peretti, a director at the Argentine Agriculture Federation, predicts the fall in output will have an "enormous impact, especially on Brazil". Brazil imports more than half its wheat from Argentina.

Argentina's poor outlook for cereals and regulatory uncertainty in the sector are hastening a switch into soya, which remains the country's most resilient crop despite falling international prices, because there is less government intervention.

Falling soya production in Brazil has also provided an opportunity, prompting some farmers to lease or buy land there or in Uruguay, where they can avoid export tariffs, though farmers say the financial crisis has cooled such investments.

Soya production costs have risen by more than 80 per cent, but Mr Peretti estimates its output will rise 20 per cent in the coming season. Argentina is the world's number three soyabean exporter and top exporter of soya oil and meal.

Farming is Argentina's top foreign exchange earner, and the government relies heavily on hefty export tariffs to raise revenue. It cut tariffs on wheat and corn last week but soya tariffs remain at 35 per cent.

Nevertheless, if soya prices remain at current levels of about $300 a tonne, the government could lose as much as $1bn in revenues next year. Furthermore, Mr Llambías says farmers are sitting on soya stocks of at least 12m tonnes, waiting for the market to pick up.

Alicia Urricariet at the research institute of the Rural Society, another producers' group, reckons the value of Argentina's total farm output will fall to nearly $16bn (€12bn, £11bn) this season, from $21.5bn in 2007-08.

The government is still smarting at a four-month battle with farmers this year in which it was forced to scrap plans to raise export tariffs.

Farm groups dismissed last week's reduction of wheat and corn tariffs - now at 23 and 20 per cent respectively - as inadequate.

Farmers complain they cannot plan because of government intervention, incl-uding the unpredictable opening and closing of wheat and corn export registers intended to protect the domestic market when international prices are high.

That, plus falling commodities prices, hefty export tariffs and weather problems, is leading to short cuts that will end up compromising future yields, they say.

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Gazprom issues warning on Ukraine pipes

By Joshua Chaffin in Brussels and Roman Olearchyk in Kiev

Published: December 10 2008 01:21 | Last updated: December 10 2008 01:21

Gazprom warned on Tuesday that the Soviet-built transit pipes that carry most of the Russian energy giant’s gas to Europe could suffer breakdowns this winter because of chronic neglect by Ukraine.

The comment came as tensions escalated between the two countries over $2bn-plus of unpaid bills, stirring concerns across Europe about a possible supply interruption as the weather turns colder.

During a visit to Brussels, Sergey Kupriyanov, Gazprom’s spokesperson, said that liquidity problems had prevented Naftogaz, the Ukrainian energy company, from performing proper maintenance on its transit network for years.

“The situation is worsening every year and we are quite concerned … because some problems might arise because there is higher pressure on the network in this [winter] period,” Mr Kupriyanov said.

Russian imports account for about 25 per cent of the EU gas market, and about 80 per cent of those imports flows through Ukraine.

The European Commission stressed that healthy gas storage levels would prevent short-term interruptions from harming consumers, as they did during a dispute in 2005-06, when Moscow halted gas shipments to Ukraine.

Nonetheless, Andris Piebalgs, the European energy commissioner, was “very concerned”, a spokesperson said, and will meet ambassadors from both countries in the coming days.

Mr Piebalgs called on both parties to reach a definitive agreement as soon as possible on a dispute that has become an annual winter event.

“This could have a negative impact on the reputation of Russia as a gas supplier, and Ukraine as a gas transit country,” his spokesperson warned.

Gazprom, which says Ukraine owes it more than $2bn, made a rare visit to Brussels to explain its case after acknowledging that it had not been sufficiently communicative in the past.

“I don’t think we have done entirely all we could in order not to be perceived here in Brussels as a threat,” Mr Kupriyanov said.

He argued that Ukraine was becoming a common problem for Russia and the EU, and that the bloc should give greater support to two European pipeline projects – Nord Stream and South Stream – that bypass Ukraine.

Experts in Ukraine say the country’s vast, ageing pipeline system needs billions of dollars of investment to patch up leaks and prevent ruptures.

In addition to recurrent price standoffs with Moscow in recent years that have disrupted supplies to Europe, an explosion caused by a leak in May 2007 along a main pipeline route raised doubts about the reliability of Ukraine as the major transit route for Russian gas to Europe.

Volodymyr Makukha, deputy Ukrainian energy minister, said on Sunday that the cost of building new pipelines bypassing Ukraine would far exceed the cost of modernising the existing route that, he insisted, offered European customers the cheapest transit cost.

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NYT eyes asset sales

By Kenneth Li in New York

Published: December 9 2008 15:28 | Last updated: December 9 2008 20:43

The New York Times is considering potential asset sales and is in discussions with lenders as it prepares for one of the “most challenging years” in its history.

Advertising revenue fell sharply at the paper in November, dragged down by weaker spending in the entertainment, property and automotive advertising categories.

Executives said that assets were under review, but did not specify which were being targeted. When asked about potential buyers, Janet Robinson, chief executive, said the review was focused internally, but added: “We’re in contact with people in the community.”

Company-watchers have identified its New England newspapers – including the Boston Globe – and its 17 per cent stake in the Boston Red Sox baseball team.

But the company is not up for sale, Ms Robinson said. She said the Sulzberger family, which holds a controlling stake, “has made it very clear internally and externally they have no intentions of selling the company”.

The NY Times’ disclosure comes a day after Tribune, publisher of some of the biggest US papers – including the Los Angeles Times and the Chicago Tribune – filed for bankruptcy, crushed under the weight of $13bn in debt in a complicated deal that came apart as the credit crisis took hold. Tribune’s bankruptcy filing was not seen triggering a spate of similar measures at other papers immediately, but the troubles are not unique. The media sector as a whole is set to suffer from a drop in spending next year, when US advertising expenditure is expected to fall 5.7 per cent, according to ZenithOptimedia.

The NY Times said it was also in talks regarding debt maturing in 2009 and 2010. About $400m is due in May, which it is attempting to renegotiate.

“We have no intention or need of fully replacing the $400m credit facility expiring next year because our total borrowing under both agreements is projected to be significantly less than $800m, and currently is approximately $400m,” James Follo, the group’s finance chief, said in a statement. The company also plans to raise up to $225m against the value of its stake in its headquarters in the form of a sale-leaseback.

In the UK, Newsquest, the regional news group and UK arm of US publisher Gannett, on Tuesday told staff in a memo that it planned to close 11 newspapers in the north-west of England in the face of declining revenues.

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Cash-rich Chinese to tour US on house-buying trip: organiser

AFP

Three hundred cashed-up Chinese will visit the United States next month to seek bargains in the plunging American real estate market, a tour organiser said Wednesday.

The itinerary will include major US cities such as New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco, said Liu Jian, chief operating officer of Soufun.com, a popular Chinese real estate portal that has arranged the trip.

"We think there's a need for people in China to buy houses in the United States," he told AFP.

"Some people believe there's an opportunity for them because of the economic decline in the United States, which has made real estate prices drop."

The state-run China Daily newspaper said 40 percent of those who had registered for the 10-day, 15,000 yuan (2,200 dollar) trip were investors seeking opportunities in the US market.

"(They) have been following the increase in mortgage foreclosures in the US, and the decline in the real estate market," Liu told the paper.

The other 60 percent are looking for homes for their children, who plan to go to the United States to study, according to the report.

Local regulations limit Chinese visiting the US to taking 50,000 dollars a year, but some potential property buyers have gone on enough trips to accumulate sufficient funds, the paper said.

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Foreign direct investment in China up 26.3 percent

AFP

Foreign direct investment in China rose 26.3 percent in the first eleven months of the year compared with the same period last year, the government said Wednesday.

Foreign companies invested 86.4 billion dollars in the country in the period from January to November, the commerce ministry said in a statement.

The growth rate for the period was sharply slower than the 35.1 percent rise in the first ten months of the year.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in November alone totalled 5.3 billion dollars, 36.5 percent lower than a year earlier, according to the statement.

FDI is one of the factors driving the rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves, which topped 1.9 trillion dollars at the end of September.

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Irish food scare spreads to cattle

AFP Andrew Bushe

Ireland's food scare crisis spread Tuesday as officials said cancer-linked chemicals had been found in cows as well as pigs, but insisted the risk to human health was minimal.

Farm minister Brendan Smith said only three cattle herds had shown illegal levels of dioxins, the substance which led to a domestic and international recall of Irish pork products at the weekend.

Officials said there would be no total recall of beef, Ireland's most important agricultural product which is worth 2.5 billion euros (3.2 billion dollars) annually.

"To all intents and purposes this is not a public health issue," Smith said, adding that the public risks "are extremely low".

"We do not expect to see symptoms occurring as a consequence in this," he told journalists in Dublin.

"The results show that eight out of the 11 herds are clear and three are above the proposed legislative limits" for the dioxins, which stemmed from contaminated animal feed, Smith said.

"This would make the samples technically non-compliant but not at a level that would pose any public health concern," he added.

The Irish government said any cows above the legal limit would be removed from the food and animal feed chain and any products from these animals would not be released into the market.

Dr. Alan Reilly of the Food Safety Authority of Ireland said that on the three farms that showed signs of dioxins "they were only two to three times above the limits".

In contrast, tests on pigs that had eaten the tainted feed were 80 to 200 times above the safe limits.

Reilly said in the case of the cows, "the adverse health effects for consumption over a short period of this type of elevated level is not going to adversely affect public health so we are not concerned."

The lower level of contamination in cows can be explained by the fact cattle are largely fed on grass, and because beef is often stored to age before being sold -- much of the meat produced during the scare would still be in storage.

"The products that we have in store from the farms that have tested positive and above this particular limit, that produce will not be allowed onto the market," Reilly said.

The three farms affected have been sealed off and all the cattle there will be tested.

Ireland sounded the alarm on Saturday, recalling all pork products made since September 1 after dioxins, which in high doses can cause cancer, were found in slaughtered pigs thought to have eaten tainted feed.

The European Commission said Monday that 12 EU states and nine other countries around the world including Japan and South Korea might have received contaminated pork or pig meat products.

With pig meat processors warning that 6,000 jobs are at risk in their industry as a result of the scare, Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen told parliament Tuesday he wanted pork back on the market as soon as possible.

Cowen said the government had shown "zero tolerance" of any contaminated meat and Dublin was taking a three-pronged approach.

Pig or beef herds that had shown contamination would be destroyed, an EU risk analysis would be used to ensure a range of products are safe and marketable and then slaughtering and processing would be restored.

The European Commission confirmed on Tuesday that the source of the dioxin contamination was a plant in southeast Ireland which recycles bread and dough to make animal feed.

A spokesman for the EU farm commissioner said there was "no legal basis" for Brussels to compensate Irish farmers affected by the crisis, after Cowen said he would ask for European financial assistance.

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California November revenue $1.3 billion below estimate

By Jim Christie Jim Christie – Tue Dec 9, 10:51 pm ET

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – California's general fund revenues in November were $1.3 billion, or 18.5 percent, below expectations, suggesting the government of the most populous U.S. state could run out of money as early as February, State Controller John Chiang said on Tuesday.

The government of California, the world's eighth-largest economy, must contend with a $28 billion combined shortfall for the remainder of its current fiscal year and its next fiscal year, which runs from July.

The massive deficit reflects the strain on California's finances from a housing slump, rising unemployment and weak consumer spending as a punishing downturn grips both the state and national economies.

"November blew away even the most pessimistic estimates, with general fund revenue down $1.3 billion," Chiang said in a statement. "These receipts could expand our immediate cash problem by another half a billion dollars, with no recovery in sight."

"According to projections from last month, all general and special funds will be exhausted by March 2009 when the state runs more than $1.9 billion in the red," he added. "November actuals suggest the state could run out of money as early as February -- and face an even larger cash shortfall in March."

Tax collections in November from California's three biggest sources of revenue -- income, sales and corporate taxes -- were $1 billion below estimates, and insurance taxes were $305 million below forecast, Chiang's office said.

Its report came a day after both chambers of California's legislature met in a rare joint session for a grim briefing from Chiang and other top state finance officials on the state's weakening finances.

California's ability to issue debt to fund job-creating public works is also at risk if the state budget shortfall is not closed, State Treasurer Bill Lockyer told lawmakers.

California is the biggest issuer of U.S. public debt. With its finances in disarray and credit markets in turmoil, the state in recent weeks has been unable to find institutional buyers for its public works debt so state loans for current and planned infrastructure projects may be cut off as early as next week, Lockyer said.

Last month, Lockyer scaled back by two-thirds a state Department of Water Resources revenue bond deal for more than $500 million in debt because of weak institutional demand.

"There is just no demand out there among the institutional investors we need," said Lockyer's spokesman Tom Dresslar.

"The market door is closed to California in our view, so we need a budget solution, and we need it fast."

Michael Genest, director of California's Department of Finance, told lawmakers that fast action on the current gap will better position the state to balance its next budget.

"Failure to act now would create a financial disaster," he said, noting that without a balanced budget the state would need to suspend $2.4 billion in payments in March.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has urged lawmakers to balance the state's books with deep spending cuts and new revenues, including cash from raising the state's sales tax.

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Vitamins C, E don't protect against cancer: studies

Tue Dec 9, 4:03 pm ET
Vitamins C, E don't protect against cancer: studies AFP/Getty Images/File – Bottles of Vitamin E are seen in a CVS pharmacy. Vitamins C and E do not appear to reduce the risk of …

CHICAGO (AFP) – Vitamins C and E do not appear to reduce the risk of cancer, according to a pair of new studies which debunk earlier research suggesting supplements might provide some protection against the often deadly ailment.

Some 15,000 men aged 50 and older participated in the study, which included an eight-year follow-up period, but neither vitamin appeared to appreciably reduce their cancer risk, according to the studies appearing in the January 7 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

The findings are disappointing news for the more than half of American adults take vitamin supplements -- many in the hope of warding off illness.

They appear to refute earlier observational studies that linked use of vitamins E and C with reduced risk of certain forms of cancers, including cancer of the prostate.

One of the two studies -- the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT) -- found that vitamin E or selenium supplements, whether taken alone or in combination, appear not to reduce the risk of prostate cancer, which is the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States.

"It may be time to give up the idea that the protective influence of diet on prostate cancer risk can be emulated by isolated dietary molecules given alone or in combination to middle-aged and older men," Peter Gann of the University of Illinois at Chicago reflected in a JAMA editorial.

SELECT researchers studied the supplements' effects over seven years on some 35,533 men, aged 50 years or older.

The researchers said that "large-scale, randomized trials" still must be conducted on the use of vitamin supplements and cancer.

Until that next generation of trials, "physicians should not recommend selenium or vitamin E or any other antioxidant supplements to their patients for preventing prostate cancer," said Gann.

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‘McBritain’ Almost Twice as Risky as McDonald's: Chart of Day

By Mark Gilbert

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Investing in U.K. government debt is almost twice as risky as buying bonds sold by McDonald’s Corp., based on prices in the credit-default swap market.

The CHART OF THE DAY compares the cost of protecting against a decline in the creditworthiness of the two borrowers. U.K. protection became more expensive on Sept. 29, when the pound suffered its biggest one-day loss against the dollar in 16 years after the government took control of Bradford & Bingley Plc, Britain’s biggest lender to landlords.

Britain risks being viewed pejoratively as a banana republic “apart from the technical disqualification that we have a monarch and so cannot be a Republic, and it’s too cold to grow bananas anyway,” says Sean Corrigan, who helps oversee about $8.5 billion as chief investment strategist at Diapason Commodities Management SA in Lausanne, Switzerland.

McDonald’s, the world’s largest restaurant company, said yesterday that global sales rose 7.7 percent in November. The marketing icon for the Oak Brook, Illinois-based company famed for its burgers is a clown figure called Ronald McDonald.

“Talk about ‘McBritain’ is an insult to Ronald’s outfit,” Corrigan said.

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「実現１２０％無理」池袋中華街構想が崩壊危機に

地元商店会が治安悪化、中華一色に猛反発

　東京・池袋一帯にひしめく中国系料理店や物産店、ナイトクラブなど約２００店による「池袋中華街」構想がピンチに陥っている。地元の商店会が猛反発しているほか、中国人コミュニティーの中からも大ブーイングが出ているというのだ。「実現は１２０％無理」との声もあり、池袋中華街は内部崩壊寸前だ。

　池袋中華街の正式名称は「トウキョウチャイナタウン池袋」。ホームページ上での加盟店の紹介、共通カードでの割引、交流イベントの開催－などを通じて日本人や中国からの観光客を池袋に呼び込むことを目的に今年８月、中国人経営者ら約６０人が準備委員会を発足させた。

　ところが、地元の商店会は猛反発。生活習慣の違う中国系の店とは、以前からごみ出しなどをめぐるトラブルが多かったが、治安悪化の懸念が高まることや「池袋を中華一色にされてはたまらない」との思いから絶対反対を表明している。

　しかも、ここにきて中国人コミュニティーの中からも不満の声が噴き出してきた。池袋西口で２５年前から上海料理店を経営する中国人経営者が内情を打ち明ける。

　「一口に中国人といっても、出身地が違えば仲間意識は低い。準備委の幹部は福建省出身で、われわれ上海系には人望がない。しかも、入会規約には食材などの仕入れを一括で行う協同組合方式が含まれている。これでは一部の人間に利権が集中する。中国人経営者の多くは中華街構想に無関心ですよ」

　準備委理事の１人も「このままでは実現は１２０％無理。上層部と各店舗の意識の差が大きすぎる。池袋は来日２０年以内の新華僑が中心で、潤沢に資金提供できるスポンサーもいない。経営者たちのほとんどは中華街のメリットを感じていないはず」と語る。

　ただ、実現にエールを送る中国人もいないわけではない。

　地元で２０年間、旅行代理店を営む王一仁さんは「池袋はいまや日本の中華情報の発信源。派閥ができるのは日本人も中国人も同じ。問題はいろいろあるが、街全体を盛り上げるという趣旨に反対する理由はありません」と話す。

　準備委の吉田吾郎副委員長も「やり方はいろいろ。まだ、これからですよ」と語る。

　内憂外患をどう解決するか、お手並み拝見だ。

ZAKZAK 2008/12/10

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ガソリン、全国平均１２０円割れ…９０円台スタンドも

　石油情報センターが１０日発表した石油製品市況の週間動向調査によると、８日現在のレギュラーガソリンの全国平均小売価格は、前週に比べ１リットル当たり４円２０銭安の１１９円１０銭となった。１２０円を割り込むのは２００５年３月下旬以来。９０円台のガソリンスタンドも出始めている。

　原油価格の下落を背景に石油元売り各社が卸値を下げ続けており、小売価格は１８週連続の下落となった。消費者の節約志向は依然として根強く、スタンドが顧客の囲い込みのために激しい値下げ競争を繰り広げ、下落に拍車を掛けた。

　全都道府県の平均価格が下落した。競争が激しい千葉市の幹線道路沿いでは、小売価格が１００円を割り込む店が出現している。

ZAKZAK 2008/12/10

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原“五分目”ピンチ…巨人戦、地上波「半分」見通し

ハミカミ級のスター熱望

　日本テレビは来季の巨人戦の地上波中継を今季の４２試合から半分程度に減らす方向で調整していることが９日、分かった。最終判断は年明けになる見通しだが、リーグ連覇を果たしても、Ｇブランドの復活にはまだ時間がかかりそうだ。

　広告関係者は「この不況下。視聴率がもう少し上がらなければ、スポンサーは納得しません。来年の巨人戦は２０試合程度に減少すると聞いています」と明かす。

　日テレが中継した地上波の巨人戦（レギュラーシーズン）の平均視聴率は９．６％（ビデオリサーチ調べ、関東地区）。３年連続で１ケタ台に終わった。ゴールデンタイムでは、番組打ち切りになるとされる数字。日テレは景気悪化による広告収入の減少なども来季の巨人戦中継数に影響を与えそうだ。

　巨人側とも交渉するため、正式決定は来年以降になるが、今のところ視聴率が急に回復する要素はない。同社の久保伸太郎社長（６４）も１日の定例会見で、視聴率を稼げるスターの誕生を熱望。ドラフト１位ルーキーの大田泰示内野手ついて「大事に育てると聞いていますが、ファンからするとＯＮのように１年目から鮮烈な活躍をしてもらいたい」と発言した。

　ゴルフ界では石川遼の出現で、７日に日テレが中継した「日本シリーズＪＴカップ」最終日の平均視聴率は、今季の国内男子ツアー最高の１４．６％を記録した。石川とまではいわないまでも、巨人でも若手の中からスターが登場しない限り、巨人戦の中継数は減少の一途となりそう。

　どうしても巨人戦を見たいファンは当面、ＣＳ放送の「日テレＧ＋（ジータス）」に加入するしかないようだ。

ZAKZAK 2008/12/10

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“他人事”と笑っていられない爆笑問題・太田の脱腸

メタボ、立ち仕事、トイレで力む…
爆笑問題・太田

　お笑いコンビ、爆笑問題の太田光（４３）＝写真＝が、脱腸（ソケイヘルニア）の手術で入院した。ソケイヘルニアは、太ももの付け根にある筋膜から、腸管などが腹膜と一緒に皮膚の方へ飛び出す病気だ。厚労省の調査によれば、年々患者数は増加。しかも、４０代以上の男性に多く他人事ではない。

　「成人の場合、加齢現象に伴い、太ももの付け根のソケイ部の筋肉が弱くなります。そのため、ソケイヘルニアになりやすいのです」と、東海大学医学部付属東京病院消化器外科の武智晶彦助教は説明する。

　成人のソケイヘルニアの８～９割は男性。なりやすいのは、（１）太っている人（２）職業的に重いものを持ち上げる、あるいは立ち仕事が多い（３）スポーツ選手（３）吹奏楽器の演奏者など“腹圧”がかかりやすい人（４）トイレで力むクセのある人。女性では妊娠中の人も、腹圧が高まるためになりやすい。

　「予防法はありません。ソケイ部が腫れるのは、ソケイヘルニアだけでなく別の病気の可能性もあります。早めに診断を受けることが大切」と武智助教。

　治療法は大きく分けて３つ。

　【従来法（縫合法）】組織と組織をつなぎ合わせて、ヘルニア門（ヘルニアもん／飛び出している部分）を縫合閉鎖する古典的な手術。

　【人工物を用いた手術】メッシュでヘルニア門を修復する手術。一般的に「日帰り手術」といわれているのはこの方法。早期の社会復帰が可能だが、日帰りのため創部（キズ口）の観察が不十分になるなど、術後管理の問題がある。

　【腹腔鏡手術】腹腔鏡を用い、お腹の内側からメッシュでヘルニア門を修復する。腹部の状態を内側から把握できるため、患部とは反対側のヘルニアになりやすい場所も確認でき、同時に治療を行うことが可能。最も有効な治療とされるが、全身麻酔下の手術となり高い技術レベルが要求される。

　「ソケイヘルニアは、痛みなどの症状が伴わないのが一般的です。しかし、急に痛みが生じたときには注意が必要です。出てしまった腸が戻らなくなる『嵌頓（かんとん）』の恐れがあるからです」（武智助教）

　嵌頓は、血流障害により飛び出た腸管が壊死してしまう。緊急手術が必要なほど重篤な状態だ。いずれにしても、早期に診断と治療を受けることがなにより。ソケイ部の異変を見逃さないように。

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元若ノ鵬、早期帰国も…東京高裁が即時抗告を棄却

　大麻事件で日本相撲協会から解雇された元若ノ鵬（本名＝ガグロエフ・ソスラン）（２０）が「処分は重すぎる」として、同協会に力士としての地位確認を求めた仮処分申し立てについて、東京高裁（吉戒修一裁判長）は９日、元若ノ鵬側の即時抗告を棄却する決定をした。

　元若ノ鵬の代理人弁護士によると、決定は、解雇処分について「（権利の）乱用とは認められない」とする一方、「重大な懲戒処分であり、本来なら力士本人に弁明の機会を与え、処分基準の明確化など適切な整備が図られることを期待したい」と付け加えたという。

　この問題では、東京地裁が１０月３０日、仮処分の申し立てを却下し、元若ノ鵬側が即時抗告していた。

　弁護士は「元若ノ鵬は生活費の問題もあり、早期の帰国も視野に入れている」とコメントしている。

　日本相撲協会側は「弁護士と相談して、対応したい」と話している。