Switzerland Feels Iceland's Pain With Banks Teetering (Update1)

Switzerland Feels Iceland's Pain With Banks Teetering (Update1)

By James G. Neuger, Joshua Gallu and Simone Meier

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- An isolated European country with an economy geared toward finance and winter sports is no longer a monetary bastion as credit evaporates around the globe. Banks teeter, the once-impregnable currency depreciates and a proudly independent people question whether a centuries-old go-it-alone strategy can survive.

Even Switzerland is wondering if it's immune to the forces ravaging Iceland.

The drama playing out in the Nordic nation, whose economy the International Monetary Fund says may shrink about 10 percent next year, offers a cautionary tale for the no less fiercely independent Swiss. While they are in far better shape, their status as custodians of the world's wealth is under threat by a global economic upheaval they can't control and miscues by the banks that made them great.

``The Swiss model of isolationism is not an advantage'' in the current environment, says Michael Baer, 46, the great- grandson of Julius Baer, founder of Switzerland's largest independent wealth manager. ``Switzerland is absolutely not immune to global developments, especially not as regards the financial crisis and the economy.''

Baer -- scion of a legendary family in one of the world's oldest financial centers -- has moved his own business to one of the youngest: In 2006, he set up Baer Capital Partners in Dubai to tap Middle Eastern wealth.

For the 7.6 million Swiss, signs of stress are evident amid a cataclysm in world markets that has besieged them with reasons to doubt a splendid isolation dating back to medieval times.

Europe's Biggest Losses

While the Swiss Market Index has outperformed the Nasdaq Composite Index this year, it has still lost 31 percent of its value. Zurich-based UBS AG, Switzerland's flagship bank, amassed Europe's biggest losses in the credit crunch, forcing the government and central bank to offer a $59 billion helping hand. The franc has tumbled against the dollar. And the banking secrecy that attracts offshore wealth is drawing more fire than ever.

Slowly, the pain on Zurich's Bahnhofstrasse -- the boutique-and bank-lined promenade through Switzerland's largest city -- is trickling through to main streets countrywide.

Switzerland's economy will shrink 0.2 percent next year after expanding 1.9 percent in 2008, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Nov.25. Manufacturing contracted the most since at least 1995 in November, a report showed today. While the 2.6 percent jobless rate is low by global standards, unemployment rose for the first time in five years in September and is heading higher.

Reeling

UBS and Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group AG, the No. 2 bank -- whose combined balance sheets equal seven times the Swiss gross domestic product -- were once a calling card for Swiss economic power; now, they are hurting.

UBS has seen its shares dive 67 percent this year. Credit Suisse, reeling from a 1.3 billion-franc ($1.1 billion) loss in the third quarter, opted out of Swiss government aid, raising 10 billion francs from investors including Qatar Holding LLC and Tel Aviv-based Koor Industries Ltd., adding to concerns that control of the country's banks is moving out of Swiss hands.

``I think we will see a move to more protectionism,'' says Baer. ``If the crisis lasts longer and the real economy cools further, we will soon see social problems, strikes, unrest.''

A grass-roots backlash is already under way. Protesters barricaded UBS's private-banking branch in Zurich in October, demanding that executives pay back bonuses. A banner at another demonstration labeled the bank ``United Bandits of Switzerland.''

Greatest Menace

The greatest menace may be a series of probes in the U.S. that puts the nation's tradition of banking secrecy at risk. Former UBS banker Bradley Birkenfeld in June admitted scheming to help American clients hide $20 billion and dodge taxes. On Nov. 6, a grand jury in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, indicted Raoul Weil, 49, chairman of global wealth management at UBS in Zurich, on a charge of conspiring to help 20,000 wealthy Americans stash assets out of sight of the Internal Revenue Service. Weil, who the bank is replacing on an interim basis, denies the charges.

Meanwhile, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck is pressing for Switzerland to be added to a blacklist of tax havens being prepared by the Paris-based OECD.

Switzerland's hush-hush tradition ``may well break down under pressure from the rest of the world,'' says Edwin Truman, a former head of the Federal Reserve's international-finance division. ``There's less and less mileage for being different.''

Running Out of Ammunition

The Swiss franc, long seen as a safe haven in the world's financial riptides, is increasingly being swept up in them. ``From a relative-value perspective, the Swiss franc is still among the top performers,'' says Paresh Upadhyaya, who helps manage $50 billion at Putnam Investments in Boston: Since July, the franc has advanced against 12 of 16 major currencies, including a 4.5 percent rise against the euro.

Still, the currency, which reached 0.9638 per dollar on March 17 -- the strongest since at least 1971 -- has since fallen to 1.2140, and it won't recover through 2009, according to the median of 48 analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. And the Swiss National Bank is running out of ammunition to buoy currency and the economy.

The central bank has cut its main interest rate three times since early October to 1 percent, and lowered the one-week repurchase rate to as low as 0.1 percent. Since Oct. 20, the bank has been forced to team with the European Central Bank to supply francs to borrowers outside Switzerland in an effort to bring three-month rates in line with its target.

Two Pathways

The franc is ``likely to remain weaker'' as investors keep selling overseas holdings in favor of dollar-based assets, according to UBS. ``The safe-haven status has shifted away from the Swiss,'' says Matthew Strauss, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

As pressures grow, two pathways lie open for the 26-canton federation that traces its origins to 1291 and has officially styled itself neutral for some 500 years. One is to turn inward -- an ages-old temptation in a country that wouldn't even join the United Nations until 2002. The other is to embrace the wider world by becoming a member of the European Union.

``We can't afford to stay outside the EU any longer,'' says Hans-Juerg Fehr, 60, a Social Democratic lawmaker and former chief of the country's second-biggest political party. The assault on the banks, he says, ``wouldn't be as great if Switzerland had the EU covering its back.''

Web of Agreements

With a GDP of around $420 billion, Switzerland is on a par with Belgium and Sweden, two middle-ranking economies in the 27- nation EU. Exports account for more than half of GDP, and sales to the EU -- facilitated by trade pacts dating back to a 1967 accord on cheese tariffs and a 1974 deal on clocks and watches - - make up more than 60 percent of exports, intertwining Switzerland's and Europe's economic fates.

Undetected by many Swiss, a web of agreements on everything from goods inspections to air transport has already saddled Switzerland with the bulk of the EU's business rules. Yet the Swiss don't have a seat at the table when EU officials gather in Brussels to set the regulations.

The Swiss are ``stuck with that,'' says Clive Church, a retired professor of Swiss and European politics at the University of Kent in the U.K. ``All the pressures are going to put them further into alignment with Europe.''

The next step, backed by Swiss voters in 2005, comes on Dec. 12 when the landlocked stronghold opens its frontiers to travelers from the 24 countries in the EU's passport-free zone. The disappearance of border-control officers will bind Switzerland more closely to the EU than even Britain and Ireland, two EU countries that maintain passport checks.

Off the Agenda

Still, the question of outright EU membership -- rejected by Swiss voters in 1992 -- is far enough off the agenda that the Bern-based GfS research institute hasn't asked the question since 2005. A survey then found 54 percent against, 37 percent in favor and 9 percent undecided.

Pro-EU campaigners who seize on current economic woes as a reason to join have to reckon with a vast, far from silent majority that fears the costs and loss of sovereignty. The Swiss got a glimpse of the price tag in 2006, when the government was cajoled into making a 1 billion-franc payment over 10 years to aid the eastern European countries that entered the EU in 2004.

``We'd have to pay a lot,'' says Bernadette Bachmann, 50, a mother of one from the Zurich region. ``I don't think we'd be better off in the EU. You can reach a deal with someone without getting married.''

Looming in the mists of the North Atlantic is the worst- case scenario of Iceland, which emulated Switzerland by hitching its fortunes to the financial industry. Unlike Switzerland, Iceland had little else to fall back on when its top three banks crashed and a $4.6 billion rescue loan made it a ward of the IMF.

``The good news is that Switzerland isn't Iceland,'' says Truman, the former Fed official who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. ``The problem is: What does Switzerland do? The crisis is truly global. No country can hide from it. As a small, open economy -- even if it's high-income, highly industrialized -- it's going to have problems.''

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Britain says no change on euro after EU chief's claim

AFP

Britain denied Monday that plans were afoot to adopt the euro currency after the European Commission president said it was considering joining but the country's eurosceptic critics jumped on the claim.

Citing private conversations with British politicians, Jose Manuel Barroso said on Sunday that London was thinking of ditching the pound as a consequence of the global financial turmoil which has seen sterling plunge in value.

However, Prime Minister Gordon Brown's spokesman insisted: "Our position has not changed. We have no plans to change our position.

"We see benefits of euro membership but the five economic tests have to be met," he said, referring to tests on economic convergence and other matters set by Brown when he was finance minister under Tony Blair.

Any decision on whether to join the euro "will be based on whether it is in Britain's economic interest," said the spokesman.

Once a highly-charged issue, the euro debate has fallen off the domestic agenda in recent years and now rarely surfaces.

Although Blair was warm to the idea, Brown is seen as being firmly against joining and there is little sign that public opposition has waned.

Barroso said that British entry to the euro was "closer than ever before" amid the global economic slowdown, which has seen sterling slump to its lowest level against the euro since the European single currency was created in 1999.

"I'm not going to break the confidentiality of certain conversations but some British politicians have already told me: 'If we had the euro, we would have been better off'," he RTL-LCI radio in France.

"I don't mean this will happen tomorrow, I know that the majority (of Britons) are still opposed, but there is a period of consideration underway and the people who matter in Britain are currently thinking about it."

In Brussels Monday, Barroso's spokesman refused to be drawn on which British politicians the EU commission chief was referring to, reading Barroso's radio question-and-answer out word for word.

Before the euro was launched, the British government -- specifically Brown as chancellor -- set five economic tests to decide whether to recommend joining the currency.

These were economic convergence between Britain and the eurozone; the need for the eurozone to be flexible to economic change; as well as its impact on jobs, foreign investment and the financial services industry.

The tests however were widely seen as being vague and Brown's way of blocking Blair's pro-euro ambitions.

William Hague, foreign affairs spokesman for the main opposition Conservatives, said: "Keeping the pound is vital for Britain's economic future.

"We need interest rates that are right for Britain, not the rest of Europe. There are no circumstances in which the next Conservative government will propose joining the euro.

"If Labour ministers still want to get Britain into the euro they should come out and say so. We will be putting questions to the government to find out what conversations have been going on."

The United Kingdom Independence Party, which wants Britain to pull out of the EU, slammed Barroso.

"That ruling elite would love to bounce us into the euro and will grasp at any straw to do so," said UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

"If Senhor Barroso would actually like to consult the 'people who matter in Britain' then he can call for a referendum on both the euro and the Lisbon Treaty so that the people of Britain can tell him where to go."

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Sterling plummets against dollar

By Peter Garnham

Published: December 1 2008 10:40 | Last updated: December 1 2008 20:37

Sterling was on track for its biggest drop against the dollar since 1992 as gloomy economic data fuelled expectations that the Bank of ­England would deliver another aggressive interest rate cut at its policy meeting on Thursday.

The pound was down 3.5 per cent at $1.4841 in mid-afternoon trade in New York, its worst performance since its ejection from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

The UK purchasing managers’ index showed activity weakened more sharply than expected last month and figures from the Bank showed mortgage approvals fell to a fresh low in October.

Analysts said the figures were further confirmation that the UK recession was set to intensify in the fourth quarter.

Chiara Corsa, of UniCredit, said the Bank needed to act quickly to cut UK interest rates, which stand at 3 per cent. “We continue to expect another bold action on Thursday with rates being cut to at least 2 per cent.”

The pound also fell 2.9 per cent against the euro and tumbled 4.8 per cent against the yen to Y139.73.

The yen was strong across the board as investors looked forward to interest rate cuts from the leading central banks outside Japan.

Analysts said this was boosting the yen as the yields on other currencies were expected to fall to approach levels in Japan, where interest rates stand at just 0.3 per cent.

The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the central banks of Australia and New Zealand were all expected to lower interest rates at their meetings later in the week in a bid to prevent the turmoil on financial markets from spilling over further into their economies.

Marc Chandler, of Brown Brothers Harriman, said all those central banks were expected to deliver interest rate cuts of at least 50 basis points and there was a strong risk of seeing bolder monetary policy actions.

“This will not be the first cut in interest rates from those central banks and it will not be the last either,” he said. “The overwhelmingly dovish monetary policy outlook from the central banking community can only add to the bullish yen sentiment of the past few months, as other major currencies’ yield advantage is weakening every month.”

The yen was boosted by further weakness on ­global equity markets, which enhanced the haven appeal of the low-yielding currency.

By late trade in New York, the yen rose 1.6 per cent to Y93.96 to the dollar. It climbed 2.2 per cent to Y118.70 against the euro and 3.1 per cent to Y60.42 against the Australian dollar.

The dollar also benefited from haven demand, rising 0.7 per cent to $1.2616 against the euro, in spite of a survey that showed manufacturing activity in the US at its lowest level in 26 years.

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View of the Day: Bolder central banks

By Richard Cookson

Published: December 1 2008 16:20 | Last updated: December 1 2008 16:20

Central banks need to consider more radical steps in taking credit risk onto their balance sheets, says Richard Cookson, global head of asset allocation at HSBC.

He acknowledges that the Federal Reserve has already committed $800bn to buy credit outright and that similar action is being considered by policymakers elsewhere. But he believes they should be bolder and set up funded pension schemes to buy huge amounts of new and existing debt.

Mr Cookson also argues that while the Fed’s scheme mostly involves mortgages and packaged consumer loans, policymakers should instead focus on corporate debt. “Risk appetite is very unlikely to recover unless longer-term corporate credit spreads recover and companies’ access to credit improves.”

Taking bad assets off banks’ balance sheets and injecting more capital into them has had only a limited effect because banks have turned into ‘money pits’, he says. “Nationalising banks would be an alternative – but buying corporate debt bypasses banks altogether.”

He adds that such a scheme would be politically more palatable than pumping more cash into banks. “The very high yields on the assets could be used to mitigate the costs of rapidly ageing populations,” he says.

“Furthermore, the action should lure other long-term buyers into the market, thus improving access to credit and boosting confidence, not just in financial markets but in the real economy as well.”

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Insight: A fistful of clamour for a few basis points more

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

Published: December 1 2008 16:10 | Last updated: December 1 2008 16:10

It is reassuring, or possibly worrying, that senior European Central Bank officials have had time recently to recall spaghetti westerns watched in their youth. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, an executive board member, last week used the film genre as a metaphor for the challenge facing policymakers these days. There was nothing more depressing, he said in Madrid, than a scene “in which the cavalry is surrounded, without any ammunition left”. The goody might win if he shot first, but he had to hit the target.

No doubt his remarks incensed some in financial markets who cannot understand why the ECB has not already let rip with both barrels and slashed its main policy interest rate much faster. Back in July, the ECB even raised rates by 25 basis points to a seven-year high of 4.25 per cent – which many would now argue was the equivalent of shooting yourself in the foot.

Mr Bini Smaghi was making a general point about the effectiveness of all policy instruments at a time of acute economic pessimism in the real economy and financial sector. But his thoughtful speech on restoring confidence illustrated how the ECB, while perhaps giving a good impression of inactivity, is having to think strategically about where it would like to be on a range of issues, not just at the end of this week but in the months and years ahead (You can read the speech at http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2008/html/sp081125_1.en.html).

The ECB has already expended a lot of ammunition in the past two months trying to get markets working again – including offering unlimited overnight and term funds at fixed interest rates against a significantly expanded collateral pool. Some of the exceptional steps taken were described as “temporary” and should in theory start to be dismantled from March next year.

In the meantime, the ECB is clear that banks need to shoulder more responsibility. Restoring functioning interbank money markets is proving painfully slow with massive sums still being parked overnight in its deposit facility. Mr Bini Smaghi argued for beefed-up, government-funded bank recapitlisation plans. For its part, the ECB has relied so far largely on moral suasion but they could try firmer action – for instance slashing the already modest interest rate paid on the deposit facility. Being a young institution – the ECB has only just marked its 10th birthday – means that nothing is entrenched and longer-term changes to its operational framework could prove quite radical.

The ECB’s frustration at banks’ behaviour perhaps might help explain why so far it has not been keen to take lessons from financial market economists demanding shock cuts in its main policy interest rate. Last month, Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, revealed that the governing council had discussed a 75bp cut. In the end, the “keep your powder dry” argument won, and the policy rate was cut by “just” 50bp to 3.25 per cent.

Governing council members might have been wary about accelerating the rate of easing to insure against the possible threat of deflation. This is not an issue ECB policymakers like discussing – or even consider possible in the eurozone, which is not unreasonable given rigidities in eurozone price-setting mechanisms. The scenario in which overnight interest rates fall to the “zero bound” is largely unexplored territory, unlike in the US where Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, has in the past spoken extensively on the subject. If, for instance, the ECB were to buy government bonds, which eurozone governments would it favour? Imagine the hackles in Germany if the ECB was seen as rewarding Italian or Greek fiscal profiligacy. Still, exceptional circumstances would probably force a swift solution.

In contrast, ECB policymakers are clearly worried that excessively low interest rates might sow the seeds of the next crisis. Recent comments by ECB “hawks,” such as Axel Weber, Bundesbank president, suggest that the quid pro quo for big cuts now will be a faster return to hiking once the crisis is over. There is also the question raised by Mr Bini Smaghi, of whether bold interest rate cuts really boost confidence, especially when the monetary policy transmission mechanism is faulty. Bigger interest cuts in the UK have not been more effective in reducing spreads.

Nevertheless, constantly gloomy economic news has strengthened the case for bigger cuts. Thanks to the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank – which cut by 150bp and 100bp last month – a 75bp cut at its meeting this week by the ECB would scarcely seem a panic reaction. There is also the issue of timing. A 50bp cut would have to be accompanied by hints of more to follow. But the ECB has never moved rates in January and guiding expecations over the holiday season would not be easy. Then again, if Clint Eastwood had been a central banker he would no doubt shoot in January to prove who was really in charge.

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Obama gambles on Hillary Clinton

Published: December 2 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 2 2008 02:00

Barack Obama's foreign policy and national security appointments - Hillary Clinton as secretary of state, Robert Gates as defence secretary and James Jones as national security adviser - have won praise from the moderate centre of the Democratic party and even from many Republicans. So far, it is mainly those on the left of the Democratic party who are expressing doubts.

As well they might. They campaigned for Mr Obama this year believing him to represent - in foreign policy above all - a clear alternative to Mrs Clinton, to the administration of George W. Bush (in which Mr Gates currently serves as defence secretary), and to John McCain (with whom Mr Jones, a former commandant of the marines, appeared during the campaign). Mr Obama has chosen a centrist if not centre-right team which, whatever its merits, calls into question the posture he adopted during the campaign. Has Mr Obama been subverted even before taking office?

The president-elect's foreign policy will be formed more by the tests he faces from now on than by deduction from first principles. By mutual consent, many of his differences with Mr McCain and Mrs Clinton were exaggerated during the campaign. Some reversion to the mean - on the timing of withdrawal from Iraq, for instance, or in dealing with Iran - was to be expected. For the moment, therefore, the main question to ask of these appointments is not about Mr Obama's foreign-policy aims, but whether he has chosen competent and effective lieutenants.

Mr Gates and Mr Jones arouse little concern on this score, but the same cannot be said of Mrs Clinton. She has merits, to be sure. Though inexperienced in foreign policy, she is widely travelled and known to the leaders of the countries she will be dealing with; she is "a global brand". In energy and determination she is second to none. While strong-willed, she is also, let us say, capable of flexibility. Campaigning for election as senator for New York, she took a strongly pro-Israel stance, saying she considered Jerusalem the country's "eternal and indivisible capital"; as secretary of state, her conviction on that sensitive matter will presumably soften.

But the main question is whether Mrs Clinton can subordinate not just her opinions but also her political ambitions to making the Obama administration a success. That must be in doubt. Her husband's financial entanglements and irrepressible flair for scandal are further potential pitfalls. In weighing all this and choosing her regardless, Mr Obama has taken quite a risk - one that, in our view, is difficult to justify.

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Clinton nomination wins politicians’ praise

By Daniel Dombey in Washington

Published: December 1 2008 22:56 | Last updated: December 1 2008 22:56

Few US secretaries of state have come into office with the global renown that Hillary Clinton enjoys. The new chief diplomat-in-waiting is recognised across the world, her surname a brand that has grown in international popularity as discontent has mounted with the administration of George W. Bush.

But her precise record in her new area of responsibility has been a matter of dispute – not least among the cohorts of Barack Obama, the president-elect, who nominated Mrs Clinton to her new job on Monday.

In the days since Mrs Clinton’s appointment was first suggested, however, praise for the decision has been near universal among the US political class.

“Hillary Clinton: 16 years’ experience, eight as first lady, eight as a United States senator,” Ed Rollins, a prominent Republican consultant, told CNN. “You couldn’t pick a better person that has travelled the world and knows the players.”

Dick Lugar, the senior Republican on the Senate foreign relations committee, said at the weekend he expected to vote in favour of Mrs Clinton’s confirmation.

Mrs Clinton won early plaudits for a 1995 speech on women’s rights at a United Nations conference in Beijing she gave as first lady, but it has been her work on the Senate armed services committee – and ties to Bill Clinton himself – that have won her most support.

During the Democratic primaries campaign, Mrs Clinton’s camp stressed her work in passing legislation to improve health benefits for the US military.

Some say her reputation as a staunch friend of Israel could bolster the Obama administration in pushing for regional peace agreements or reconciling Israel to US engagement with Iran.

“The Clinton brand is still phenomenally popular in Israel,” said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli official now at the New America Foundation in Washington DC.

Nevertheless, Mrs Clinton’s tough stance on the Middle East has been at the root of some of her most important disagreements with Mr Obama. Not least among them was whether to identify Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation and whether to authorise the war in Iraq.

Obama supporters had depicted her 2007 Senate vote on the Revolutionary Guard as dangerously destabilising at a time of rising tensions with Tehran.

Even the Bush administration had never declared the entire Revolutionary Guard a terrorist entity. And much of the new president’s initial appeal to Democratic activists was built precisely on the fact that he opposed the war in Iraq from the start while Mrs Clinton did not.

But Democrats stress that on the broader issues of engagement with Iran and pulling troops out of Iraq, the next president and his top diplomat agree – even if their common ground is not exactly what doves in the party would have wanted.

“It certainly suggests that US foreign policy will, in general, be centrist, shifting away from the Democratic party’s liberal wing,” a senior Israeli official said of Mrs Clinton’s nomination.

“Clinton could well be a very tough negotiator on Iran. She will certainly look for a pragmatic solution to the Iranian issue, but not at the expense of acquiescing.”

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Jim Jones appointed national security adviser

By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington

Published: December 1 2008 23:54 | Last updated: December 1 2008 23:54

Barack Obama hit back against criticisms of his connections with a radical anti-Vietnam war activist during the presidential campaign by saying he would “associate” with people such as retired General Jim Jones in the White House.

When Mr Obama unveiled his national security team on Monday, he was flanked by Gen Jones, a 6ft 4in Marine general who served as Nato supreme allied commander, as his new national security adviser.

A French-speaking Vietnam veteran and former head of the Marine Corps, Gen Jones will join a small coterie of military officers who have been national security adviser, including Brent Scowcroft under Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush, and Colin Powell under Ronald Reagan.

One key issue awaiting Gen Jones is how to deal with the heavyweights – particularly Robert Gates at the Pentagon and Hillary Clinton at the state department – in the Obama cabinet. Those relationships will help determine both the course of policy and the health of the emasculated National Security Council.

The NSC has seen its power ebb and flow since its creation in 1947. David Rothkopf, author of Running the World: The Inside Story of the National Security Council and the Architects of American Power, says there have essentially been three kinds of national security adviser – the Kissinger, Scowcroft, and Rice models – since the era of John F. Kennedy.

As national security adviser to Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger maintained a firm grip on the levers of power even before his concurrent appointment as secretary of state. He once explained the source of power as “location, location, location,” in a reference to his West Wing office close to the Oval Office. To illustrate the point, Ronald Reagan downgraded the job by giving Richard Allen, his first national security adviser, less prime real estate in the basement.

According to Mr Rothkopf, George H.W. Bush reinvigorate the role by appointing Gen Scowcroft as an “honest broker” between powerful players that included James Baker, secretary of state, and Dick Cheney, defence secretary. While Bill Clinton maintained a relatively strong NSC, the organisation weakened under George W. Bush, particularly during his first term when Condoleezza Rice as national security adviser was unable to manage Donald Rumsfeld, the secretary of defence, Dick Cheney, vice-president, and Mr Powell, secretary of state.

Anthony Zinni, a retired four-star Marine general who previously ran US Central Command, praised Gen Jones as the “perfect choice” who would employ the Scowcroft model. “He is smart, well experienced, knows Washington, has a great temperament, no ego [and is a] team player,” said Gen Zinni.

Retired General John Abizaid, who also served as head of Central Command while Gen Jones led Nato, said his marine colleague was an “inspired choice” who could manage Mr Obama’s team of rivals.

“He will do that very well. He won’t be afraid to speak his mind,” said Gen Abizaid. “He must be a good co-ordinator, but will be an enforcer when necessary.”

One former US official pointed out that the key to the NSC functioning well was the role of Mr Obama himself. He said the Scowcroft NSC was particularly successful because the first President Bush was engaged on a daily basis.

Mr Rothkopf says Mr Obama himself is leaning towards the Scowcroft model, adding that Gen Jones was the “ideal antidote to the downside of the team of rivals”, which includes potential infighting and lack of co-ordination.

Nick Burns, who served as US ambassador to Nato when Gen Jones was allied commander, commended the choice of the “soldier diplomat”, who has strong relationships around the world, and knowledge of both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

William Cohen, the Clinton-era Republican defence secretary who has known Gen Jones for 30 years, said he would employ his trademark “cool and very easy going” manner as national security adviser. He suggested that Gen Jones, would emulate Gen Scowcroft, and would not seek to block Mrs Clinton from bringing her views directly to Mr Obama.

“I don’t see him as Kissingerian in that sense in trying to be the great architect of the policy. I think he is going to be more of the broker,” said Mr Cohen.

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Thai parties vow to form new government

BANGKOK, Dec 2 – All six parties in Thailand’s ruling coalition vowed to stick together and form a new government after judges on Tuesday ordered Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat’s ruling People Power Party (PPP) disbanded after it was found guilty of vote fraud.

The courts also ordered two junior parties in the coalition to close down, but MPs who escaped a political ban would move to new ”shell” parties and create a fresh coalition, government spokesman Nattawut Saikuar told reporters.

The Constitutional Court also barred the party’s top leaders, including Mr Somchai, from politics for Mr Thaksin five years, raising the risk of clashes between his supporters and thousands of anti-government protesters blockading the capital’s two airports. The court also ordered two other junior parties in the government coalition disbanded.

A grenade was fired from a flyover near the domestic airport hours before the court hearing, killing one anti-government protester and wounding 22 others. Thousands of foreign tourists have been stranded by the protests and the air cargo industry has ground to a halt, costing the country millions of dollars.

Hundreds of government supporters gathered inside the court compound on Tuesday and riot police were guarding the courtroom where the judges were reading verdicts. The yellow-shirted People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) demonstrators at the airports have been seeking to topple Mr Somchai, whom they accuse of being a Thaksin pawn. Mr Thaksin, Somchai’s brother-in-law, was ousted in a 2006 coup and is now in exile.

The Thai baht fell to its lowest level in nearly two years and costs rose for protection against debt default as Thailand’s deepening political crisis weighed on investor sentiment.

The electoral fraud case, stemming from December 2007 general elections won by the PPP, was scheduled to be heard at the Constitutional Courthouse in Bangkok on Tuesday but was moved after hundreds of red-shirted government supporters surrounded the building.

Several thousand PAD supporters have occupied the prime minister’s offices since August but the PAD has said it would hand the compound back to the authorities on Tuesday. A Reuters reporter said only a handful of PAD activists remained at Government House early on Tuesday.

There were no police present, but cranes had arrived to remove the shells of six buses used to barricade surrounding roads. The PAD leadership apparently intends to move more supporters to the international airport, which has been blockaded for a week, adding to the pain of a tourist- and export-dependent economy already suffering from the global financial crisis.

Finance Minister Suchart Thada-Thamrongvech told Reuters on Monday the economy might be flat next year, or grow by just 1-2 percent, after earlier growth forecasts of between 4-5 percent. The chaos has worried Thailand’s neighbours, who were due to meet in the country in two weeks for a regional summit. A government spokesman said after a cabinet meeting on Tuesday that Thailand had postponed the summit to March 2009.

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EU rethink on pollution permits

By Joshua Chaffin in Brussels

Published: December 2 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 2 2008 02:00

European industry appears poised to reap a more generous share of free pollution allowances than first expected after persuading policymakers that proposed legislation would impose steep costs on manufacturers and threaten jobs.

Germany, in particular, has led an effort to ensure that manufacturers - including those in chemicals, glass, steel and cement - receive free allocations if they are forced to compete against companies from non-EU countries that are not subject to new regulations, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

Protecting such companies against the threat of so-called "carbon leakage" - in which jobs and production leave Europe for less regulated countries - has emerged as one of the thorniest challenges for negotiators trying to agree an ambitious EU climate package ahead of a summit of EU leaders on December 11-12.

The European Commission has long favoured an auctioning system as the fairest and most efficient way to allocate emissions allowances. Yet top officials have softened their position in recent days, according to those familiar with the negotiations.

"With the current economic crisis deepening, we may well go for a high degree of free allocation," one Commission official told the Financial Times.

Officials say they are confident that awarding more allowances to companies for free would not undermine their goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020.

However, such a switch would deprive EU governments of potentially billions of euros in auction revenues - some of which they were expected to deploy to promote renewable energy and other green technologies.

Several environmental groups are wary of free allowances, citing recent studies that played down the threat of carbon leakage. "It's a big wealth transfer to these companies," said Joris den Blanken, a policy analyst at Greenpeace.

Under the Commission's original proposal, Europe's emissions trading system would be expanded from 2013, with utilities forced to purchase 100 per cent of their allowances at auction. They currently receive most for free. Other industries would move to full auctioning by 2020.

That has drawn the ire of European manufacturers, who have complained that auctioning would saddle them with billions of euros in additional costs that they could not pass on to customers because of foreign competition.

While the Commission had proposed granting up to 100 per cent free allowances to companies hit by carbon leakage, it planned to leave the specifics until after a planned UN conference in Copenhagen.

In a nod to industry, which has demanded more clarity, the French presidency proposed on Friday that at-risk sectors be determined no later than June 30. The debate now centres on specific ratios for trade intensity, cost increases and other measures to determine which sectors should qualify for free allocations.

Germany has taken the most generous line, proposing that no company should have to buy more than 20 per cent of its allowances at auction - regardless of carbon leakage.

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Brazil pledges to slash Amazon deforestation

By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo

Published: December 2 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 2 2008 02:00

Brazil vowed on Monday to cut the amount of deforestation in the Amazon over the next decade to less than half the current rate.

The pledge followed an announcement last week that 12,000 sq km of forest had been destroyed in the 12 months to the end of July – an increase of nearly 4 per cent over the previous year, but down from a record high of more than 27,000 sq km in the same period in 2003-04.

Carlos Minc, environment minister, said deforestation in the Amazon would fall to 5,000 sq km a year by 2017, beginning with a 40 per cent reduction during the period of 2006 to 2010.

Mr Minc said reforestation would double to 11,000 sq km a year by 2020. “By 2015 we will be planting more trees than we are cutting down.”

However, observers noted that the government’s promises were conditional on circumstances not necessarily within its control – such as the availability of finance for law enforcement – and said the planned cut in deforestation might not be as aggressive as it appeared.

“If you look closely at the objectives, I’m reading a promise to cut not deforestation per se by 40 per cent, but illegal deforestation,” said David Cleary, director of conservation strategies at the Nature Conservancy in Rio de Janeiro.

“That seems a fairly tolerant attitude to illegality and a long time frame to enforce your own laws.”

Mr Cleary said a reduction in deforestation of 40 per cent over four years could be achieved, given the political will. “The coming economic slowdown will certainly help,” he said.

“But there was no mention of attacking the problem of land registries, land grabbing, fraud and land conflicts in the Amazon, nor of licensing systems for rural properties where compliance with environmental legislation would be a criterion.”

Paulo Moutinho of Ipam, an Amazon research institute, said targets could be met or exceeded given the right mix of policies, including incentives for landowners who obeyed the law and “a real policy for regularisation of land rights”.

He added: “The rules of the game need to be agreed with the [regional] state governments or the plan will never be put into effect.”

Mr Cleary was also sceptical about the plans for reforestation. Of the 11,000 sq km promised, 9,000 sq km will consist of eucalyptus, used by the paper and pulp industries, and 2,000 sq km of native species. “That’s fine for carbon, but it looks like a victory of the paper and cellulose lobby over the environmental lobby,” he said.

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Dream jobs in Dubai dry up

By Simeon Kerr

Published: December 1 2008 18:07 | Last updated: December 1 2008 18:07

Until only a few months ago, many executives from developed economies viewed the Gulf as bolthole to ride out the global economic storm.

Now the axe is falling heavily on the staff of Dubai real estate companies as a six-year property bubble finally bursts, while similar cost-cutting measures are sweeping through the investment banking community.

Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs have already cut about 10 per cent of their regional staff as the prospects for next year’s fees dim with the oil price slump.

Elsewhere, big real estate companies are slashing up to 15 per cent of their workforces. Nakheel, the government-owned offshore developer, this week said it was paring back high-profile projects such as the Trump Tower on Palm Jumeirah, while also making 500 staff redundant.

The reality of corporate slimming-down sits uncomfortably with the perception of Dubai and the Gulf as havens of economic stability in the current global financial storm.

As job losses in developed economies increase, the number of applicants for regional positions is ballooning.

In November 2005, whenthe recruitment consultant Hays began operating in the Gulf, it was receiving about 500 applications a week from outside the region. That has risen to 3,000 a week as the global slowdown worsens.

“There are many unsolicited CVs coming though from people with no experience of the region,” says David Johnson of Whitehead Mann, the executive headhunters.

Recruiters, fearing stiff relocation costs, are now more likely to pick candidates who are already in the Middle East.

“Since it is fast becoming a buyers’ market, client companies are getting fussier about this experience so someone in region is likely to be preferred,” says Mr Johnson.

Hays, which has grown from four to 80 consultants over the past three years, says that three-quarters of the vacancies it was trying to fill for clients have been put on hold.

Jason Armes, Hays’ managing director in Dubai, says redundancies and the freeze on hiring could combine to see thousands of Dubai’s expatriates leave town.

“Over the next three months, 5,000 professionals could lose their jobs in Dubai. That’s very significant,” he says.

Mr Armes says that the advertising and media industries, which have expanded on the back of the real estate market, could also face swingeing cuts as companies reduce marketing budgets.

Yet, as Dubai loses its shine, other, less glamorous cities are beginning to look more attractive. Abu Dhabi and Doha are first in line to take advantage.

The capitals of Qatar and of the United Arab Emirates are among some of the richest cities in the world, thanks to their hydrocarbon reserves and overseas investments.

They are also diversifying their economies, with an emphasis on industry, culture and education.

Expatriates seeking the luxuries of Dubai’s champagne brunch lifestyle are also turning to perceived hardship postings, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which are seeing stronger demand for construction expertise.

“Dubai sold itself on a vision, but now it costs so much here that there is a sense that the good money in Dubai has already been made,” says Mr Armes.

“Property people especially are considering roles in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait that a year ago would never have had any applications,” he adds.

Nor is it all doom and gloom for Dubai, either.

Whitehead Mann’s Mr Johnson says that regional companies are still taking the replacement of senior staff very seriously, even if some lower-end hires are on hold.

Carolyn Hanson, regional director for International Compliance Training, says compliance officers remain in strong demand as these vital roles are the last to go, especially as Gulf states introduce stronger regulation.

And while investment banks are shedding staff, they also want to replace some dead wood with experienced regional experts to contribute to the restructuring and merger deals that will become their bread and butter over the next year.

“If you can find me a good Saudi investment banker, I will hire him now,” a banker says.

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Kuwait investment banks struggle with debt

By Robin Wigglesworth

Published: December 1 2008 18:07 | Last updated: December 1 2008 18:07

Kuwait’s investment companies have enjoyed a boom as an abundance of petrodollars in the region helped the sector expand to equal the banks in size and scope.

But analysts and bankers now warn that, because of a dependence on cheap credit and favourable market conditions – and over-exposure to illiquid long-term assets such as private equity and real estate – investment companies pose significant dangers to the Kuwaiti financial sector.

A Kuwaiti newspaper said last week that, of the 45 listed investment companies, 12 are struggling to repay domestic and international debt. Many bankers put the figure much higher.

“It’s a major concern,” says Mandagolathur Raghu, head of research at Markaz, a Kuwaiti investment company. “Some have really gone overboard on leverage, and many of them could face a solvency crisis.”

There are 95 conventional and Islamic investment companies in Kuwait, and their total liabilities swelled to KD18.3bn ($66.5bn) in the third quarter, according to central bank data. While these are ostensibly matched by the total value of assets, liabilities dwarf shareholder equity and many bankers are not convinced of the reported worth of the assets.

“I don’t know what they’re holding, and that’s an issue in a downturn,” says Amjad Ahmad, chief executive of NBK Capital’s investment and merchant banking division.

In spite of the rockiness of global and local markets, only three investment companies have reported a loss this year. This raises questions over transparency, says Amani Ibrahim Al-Omani, head of Gulf investments at Markaz, one of the companies that reported a loss in the third quarter.

“Where would they make money, given these markets?” says Ms Al-Omani. “No one knows what is going on inside these companies.”

The stock market has banned several companies from trading until they release third-quarter results and investors seem concerned. The investment company sub-index of the Kuwaiti bourse has shed 44 per cent this year, compared to the 30 per cent drop of the overall exchange.

Selling assets to meet debt repayments may not help. Spurred by cheap credit the investment companies have piled into illiquid and unquoted asset classes such as private equity and real estate, which most investors are now loath to hold.

“They’re mostly private equity funds in the form of a company,” says Yann Pavie, chief executive of GulfMerger, a Kuwait-based advisory firm. With the investments mostly credit- financed, this is “a major problem when the banks call in the debt”.

Investment companies have been forced to meet debt commitments by selling off their more liquid investments in the Kuwait Stock Exchange, contributing to the bourse’s current malaise.

The authorities are not blind to the danger of the industry. Money has been pouring into the banking system and the central bank has opened a credit facility for commercial banks.

The central bank has addressed the liquidity issue by offering to take hard-to-trade assets off the investment companies’ books in return for Kuwaiti treasury bills, which they in turn can use as gold-plated collateral for loans.

Though the authorities insist the plan is different from the US Troubled Asset Relief Programme, since it will not touch any toxic debt-based securities, some say it faces similar problems to the ill-fated US initiative, such as how to value the illiquid assets it acquires.

In spite of the measures, commercial banks are reportedly reluctant to lend capital to companies they fear may be sitting on losses.

“The central bank is providing liquidity, but the banks aren’t passing it on to customers,” says Mr Raghu. “Banks are just saying no to lending, despite all the bullying and cajoling by the central bank.”

“If you’re a bank that is in a bad position, why would you lend to certain companies?” says Ms Al-Omani. Though they are now restricting lending, the “mess” can still spread to the commercial banks if the investment companies are unable to service existing loans, she says.

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Trump faces Deutsche suit over Chicago tower

By Matthew Garrahan in Los Angeles, Hal Weitzman in Chicago and Nicole Bullock in New York

Published: December 1 2008 23:35 | Last updated: December 2 2008 00:38

The gaming industry slump and real estate slowdown is threatening to hit Donald Trump in the wallet as he faces a lawsuit from Deutsche Bank over a 92-storey Chicago tower development.

The bank is demanding Mr Trump pay a $40m personal guarantee relating to the balance of a $640m construction loan to build Trump International Hotel and Tower, which is set to be the second tallest building in the US when completed.

Deutsche’s suit follows an earlier one filed by Mr Trump against the bank, which he accused of wrongly refusing to extend the loan’s maturity date, thereby hindering his ability to sell units in the building.

Mr Trump’s case also invoked a force majeure clause, citing the financial crisis as an extraordinary event that should prompt a loan extension.

Deutsche Bank is seeking to have Mr Trump’s lawsuit dismissed.

While Mr Trump grapples with property woes, his gaming group is struggling with the decline of that industry. Trump Entertainment Resorts on Monday missed a $53.1m interest payment, which the group said was “part of a strategy to maintain sufficient liquidity”.

Mr Trump is planning a golf resort in Scotland and there are fears the project could be affected.

But George Sorial, managing director of international development with the Trump Organisation, which is owned by Mr Trump, said there was no connection between the various projects.

“Everything we’ve done in Scotland has been paid for in cash,” he said. “At this point we don’t anticipate the need for financing.”

He added that Mr Trump was a minority shareholder in Trump Entertainment Resorts, with the holding representing less than 1 per cent of his net wealth.

The group owns properties in Atlantic City, including the Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort.

The company has a 30-day grace period to pay the interest owed. It said it would “pursue discussions” with its lenders to restructure its capital, “improve liquidity, and create a platform to grow and diversify the company’s business”.

Las Vegas Sands, a rival group that runs the Venetian in Las Vegas and the Sands in Macao, is also struggling to meet debt obligations. It recently raised $475m in convertible senior stock notes from Sheldon Adelson, its largest shareholder, after earnings fell below the amount necessary to maintain debt covenants.

Yields on debt of companies with ratings below investment grade, which includes Trump Entertainment, topped 20 per cent on average last month, according to a Merrill Lynch index.

“Even after 9/11, people continued to go to casinos, both in Las Vegas and Atlantic City,” said Kingman Penniman, president of KDP Investment Advisors. “This downturn is showing that the depth and breadth of consumer [spending] is being hit at both the high and low end.”

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F-35’s first battle will be over sales

By Sylvia Pfeifer, Defence Industries Correspondent

Published: December 1 2008 22:49 | Last updated: December 1 2008 22:49

At Lockheed Martin’s mile-long manufacturing plant in Fort Worth, Texas, the world’s newest fighter aircraft is taking shape.

The F-35 Lightning II – or Joint Strike Fighter as it was known at its inception – is the defence company’s most ambitious project yet and at an estimated cost of $300bn the programme is the most expensive in military history.

It could also take on another historical significance: this supersonic, fifth-generation stealth fighter is widely expected to be the last manned fighter aircraft ever built – among the western powers, at least.

For Lockheed Martin, the lead contractor, the stakes are high. The company hopes to replicate the success of the F-16, the most successful export jet fighter programme. But for the programme to succeed on that level, it needs to ensure the US’s eight partner nations on the F-35 commit to buying the aircraft.

The man charged with the mission is Tom Burbage, a vice-president at Lockheed Martin and in charge of the programme since its launch eight years ago.

Next spring, he and his team plan to present the partner nations with what they hope will be a contract they cannot refuse. In a departure from the norm, they will “lock in” their purchase of the first five years’ production of the aircraft, from 2014 at a fixed price.

For the partner nations, the proposal would provide some predictability on cost and protection from exchange-rate fluctuations. For the company, it would help stabilise its production planning given the variability in orders and delivery times. Lockheed Martin hopes to present a plan to the partner nations in April or May so the next few months are critical.

One big challenge remains cost. In the early days, in the mid-1990s, estimates put the cost of the programme at $200bn; since then that estimate has risen to $300bn.

Few complex military procurement programmes escape without sizeable cost overruns. With new aircraft, weight increases are often the biggest challenge.

Four years ago, problems with the weight of the most complex of the three aircraft variants – short take-off and vertical landing – forced the Pentagon to delay the entire programme by a year and add $7bn to its budget.

Today, with government defence budgets already tight given the billions spent on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan combined with the credit crunch, Lockheed is facing an even stiffer challenge to convince its potential customers the F-35 is worth the money.

In September, the US government approved the $6.3bn funding requested for next year, but the bulk of the funding is for continued development, including a second engine (see below), and only covers delivery of 14 early-stage aircraft.

The first big test is in January when the UK is meant to commit to buying its first two aircraft, to be used in evaulation and training.

The UK is the only foreign country to gain “level one” partner status, in large part due to the close relationship of the armed forces and because it was prepared to invest $2bn in the programme from the start. Speculation is rife the UK will decide to cut the number of aircraft it has indicated it will order.

The Netherlands, another close ally, is also expected to decide whether to buy one aircraft for testing. But in a sign of just how tight budgets are, another partner nation, Italy, in October decided against joining this phase of the programme.

Mr Burbage says he is confident the F-35 will prove a success but admits “it won’t be easy” getting everyone on board.

Industrially, the aircraft programme is entering its most challenging phase. Delays along the way have meant the STOVL version will now be the first to enter service with the US Marines by 2012.

At Forth Worth, the company has completed four test aircraft – the first one made its maiden flight in December 2006 – and another 19 test and production-model aircraft are being assembled.

The company is at the point of rolling out roughly one aircraft every month on the way to a peak of one per working day by around 2015 – close to the one-time peak of 30 aircraft per month achieved with the F-16.

To help the process, Lockheed Martin has radically changed production methods. Unlike the F-22 Raptor – the world’s most advanced fighter – the F-35 will be built on a moving line.

The supply base also needs to be firmly in place before production ramps up.

“Ramping up to one aircraft a day will be a challenge,” says Patrick McDowell, vice-president of sales and business development at Goodrich, which among other parts is supplying the landing gear. “This is tough stuff.”

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Canon clear to launch new type of TV

By Robin Harding in Tokyo

Published: December 1 2008 22:08 | Last updated: December 1 2008 22:08

Canon, the Japanese consumer electronics group, is clear to launch a new type of television after winning a patent lawsuit that has delayed its progress for more than three years.

Nasdaq-listed Applied Nanotech, which had sued the Japanese company for illegally sub-licensing its patents, told the Financial Times that it had decided not to appeal to the US Supreme Court.

“It would probably be a futile effort,” said Douglas Baker, Applied Nanotech’s chief financial officer.

Canon can now press ahead with televisions based on surface-conduction electron-emitter displays, or SED.

Such TVs can produce the wide viewing angle and deep colours of a traditional cathode-ray television, but are as thin as a liquid-crystal or plasma display.

SED is a rival technology to organic light-emitting diodes, or OLEDs, a system backed by Sony and Samsung, and could shake up the huge market for televisions and monitors. Canon showed SED prototypes in 2006, but has yet to prove that it can mass produce televisions at a competitive price.

Tsuneji Uchida, Canon’s president, told the FT: “In regards to SED, we have a new production process we’re working on which is cost competitive with liquid crystal displays.”

Canon sees displays as a natural complement to its existing business of cameras, printers and copiers.

But he implied that SED would not be launched immediately because of the slump in television prices that has prompted profit warnings from Sony and Panasonic. “At times like this, new display products are not introduced much because people would laugh at them,” he said.

Applied Nanotech first filed a suit in April 2005, alleging that, although it had licensed crucial SED patents to Canon, they did not cover a joint venture Canon formed with Toshiba to commercialise the technology.

In May 2007, a court ruled that Canon had breached the licence but in July this year an appeals court reversed the ruling on a technicality.

SED technology has suffered heavily from the three-year delay caused by the lawsuit. Canon was forced to buy Toshiba out of their joint venture and the two companies abandoned plans to launch products in the fourth quarter of 2007, partly because of the lawsuit and partly because manufacturing costs were still too high.

In the meantime, LCD and plasma displays have moved into the mass market, and economies of scale have made them cheaper to produce.

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日銀、企業の資金繰り支援へ３兆円供給策　臨時会合で決定

　日銀は2日、臨時の金融政策決定会合を開き、企業の資金繰りを支援する新しい資金供給策を決めた。資金供給で担保に取る社債の格付けを緩和。併せて銀行が日銀に社債などの企業向け債権を担保として差し出せば、無制限に有利な金利で資金を貸す新制度も導入する。白川方明総裁は記者会見で新制度によって「金融機関に3兆円程度の資金供給が見込める」と述べた。

　日銀が企業の資金繰りを支援する緊急対策をまとめるのは、金融危機が深刻だった1998年以来となる。(21:01)

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年金記録、54万4000件で訂正処理遅れ

　主に60歳以上の年金受給者が記録の訂正を申請した後も処理されないままになっている事例が8月末時点で54万4000件あることが2日わかった。社会保険庁に訂正申請が殺到し、事務作業が滞っているのが主因で7月末の42万件から3割増えた。8月の申請受付件数は15万件で、実際に訂正に応じたのは2 万6000件にとどまった。(20:25)

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外国人の受け入れ推進会議が初会合　09年６月に報告書作成へ

　外国人労働者の受け入れ問題を話し合う政府の高度人材受入推進会議（議長・田中直毅国際公共政策研究センター理事長）は2日、初会合を開いた。留学生が生活しやすい環境づくりや、企業での採用基準の明確化などで具体的な提言を示す。省庁ごとの取り組みを盛った行動計画も作る。来年6月をメドに報告書をまとめる。

　推進会議は今後、実務作業部会を月1―2回開き、専門家や関係省庁などの意見を聞く。受け入れ増を目指す高度人材の対象や、受け入れの数値目標設定が課題になる。

　少子高齢化が進む日本社会では、活力維持のため外国人労働者の受け入れ拡大が必要との指摘が増えている。だが、コミュニケーションのとりにくさや不透明な雇用慣行から外国人に敬遠されるケースも目立っている。(20:25)

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みずほコーポ銀、中国・広西チワン族自治区と業務協力協定

　みずほコーポレート銀行は2日、中国南部の広西チワン族自治区・招商促進局と業務協力協定を結んだと発表した。同行は日本企業が同自治区に投資する際の相談窓口を設け、外国企業の呼び込みを進める促進局から情報提供を受ける。日本に進出する同自治区の企業には、みずほコーポ銀がアドバイスする。

　促進局が外国銀行と業務協力協定を結ぶのは今回が初めてという。同自治区は広東省やベトナムと隣接。中国政府は税制などの優遇策を設け、日本からは化学や電機などの企業が進出している。(20:01)

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「骨太方針」見直し、景気悪化の危機感　財源に限り

　自民党が2日に「骨太方針2006」に基づく歳出抑制方針の見直しを政府に求めることを決めた背景には米国発の金融危機をきっかけとした日本国内の景気の急速な悪化への危機感がある。麻生内閣の支持率も急落しており、次期衆院選を戦うには景気対策になりふり構わない姿勢を訴える必要があると判断したためだ。ただ財政状況が悪化している中で、選挙目当てのバラマキに傾けば批判は避けられない。

　骨太方針06は小泉内閣の最後の年の06年に決めた。11年度に国・地方の基礎的財政収支を黒字化する目標を設定し、実現に向けて、社会保障費を11年度までの5年間で1兆1000億円抑制するなど、個別の歳出削減目標も盛り込み、官邸主導による構造改革路線の象徴的な存在だった。(16:00)

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宇宙基本計画、骨子を了承　政府戦略本部

　政府の宇宙開発戦略本部（本部長・麻生太郎首相）は2日、今後の宇宙政策の指針となる「宇宙基本計画」の骨子を了承した。宇宙開発を利用重視の政策に転換し、安全保障の強化や宇宙外交の推進など5つの「基本的な方向性」を盛り込んだ。基本計画は来年5月に正式決定する。(12:48)

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円の実効為替レート、11月は過去最高に　独歩高映す

　日銀によると、複数の通貨に対する円の総合的な価値を示す名目実効為替レート（1973年3月＝100）は11月に364.8と前月より22.5ポイント上昇し、過去最高になった。世界景気の減速を背景に円がユーロやオーストラリアドルなど幅広い通貨に対して大きく上昇した結果、対ドルで史上最高値となる1ドル＝79円75銭を付けた95年4月（360.4）を上回った。

　実効為替レートはドルやユーロ、英ポンド、豪ドル、タイバーツなど15の主要な貿易相手国・地域の通貨に対する円の総合的な価値を測る。名目の為替レートを、貿易額に応じて加重平均して算出する。数値が大きいほど円高となる。

　11月は世界的な株価の下落を受けて投資家がリスクを取りにくい地合いが続き、国内の投資家が外貨を円に戻す動きが膨らんだ。低金利の円を借り入れて高金利の外貨を運用する「円キャリー取引」を巻き戻す動きが加速し、円は対ドルで93―99円台の歴史的な高値圏で推移したほか、アジアなど新興国の通貨に対しても軒並み全面高となった。(12:48)

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日立製作所、新型記憶装置に本格参入　インテルと共同開発

　日立製作所は2日、フラッシュメモリーを使う新型の記憶装置「ソリッド・ステート・ドライブ（ＳＳＤ）」に本格参入すると発表した。米インテルと共同開発し、インテルが生産する企業向け製品を2010年から独占的に販売する。日立はハードディスク駆動装置（ＨＤＤ）大手。将来のＨＤＤの代替製品といわれるＳＳＤを品ぞろえに加えることで、記憶装置事業全体の強化をはかる。

　日立グローバルストレージテクノロジーズ（ＨＧＳＴ、カリフォルニア州）がサーバーやデータセンター向けの高速伝送型ＳＳＤの販売を担当する。ＨＧＳＴとインテルが制御技術や基本ソフト（ＯＳ）との整合性などを共同で開発する。一般パソコン向けは従来通り、インテルが独自に販売する。ＳＳＤはＨＤＤより処理速度が速く、消費電力が低い。現時点では容量や価格についてはＨＤＤが優れており、データの検索用はＳＳＤ、蓄積用はＨＤＤというすみ分けも始まっている。

　日立グループでは日立超ＬＳＩシステムズ（東京都国分寺市）も産業機器向けのＳＳＤを手掛けている。(21:01)

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半導体製造装置、09年の世界市場は21％減　ＳＥＭＩ予測

　国際半導体製造装置材料協会（ＳＥＭＩ）は2日、2009年の半導体製造装置の世界市場が242億9000万ドルと08年見通し比で21.4％減少するとの予測を発表した。08年は07年比27.7％減の309億1000万ドルと予測しており、装置市場は2年連続で縮小する見通し。

　世界景気の減速で、半導体メーカーが増産投資を手控えるため。2年連続で世界の半導体製造装置市場が縮小するのは、ＩＴ（情報技術）バブルが崩壊した01、02年以来。(20:41)

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国内ホテル満足度、リッツ・カールトンが3年連続首位　民間調べ

　調査会社のＪ．Ｄ．パワー　アジア・パシフィック（東京・港）は2日、国内のホテル138ブランドを対象に実施した2008年版の宿泊客満足度調査の結果を発表した。1泊3万5000円以上の高級ホテル部門では「ザ・リッツ・カールトン」が調査開始から3年連続の首位になった。2位は「フォーシーズンズホテル」、3位には「帝国ホテル」が続いた。

　スタッフの対応や客室の状態など8項目で評価し、1000点満点で算出した総合点をもとに宿泊料金水準で分けた4部門ごとにランク付けした。1泊1万 5000―3万5000円の部門は「ロイヤルパークホテル」が2年連続、同9000―1万5000円の部門は「リッチモンドホテル」が3年連続、同 9000円未満では「ドーミーイン」が2年連続で、それぞれ首位だった。

　9月にインターネットで調査した。最近1年間で宿泊したホテルについて、18歳以上の3万5644人から回答を得た。(18:09)

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大豆から電磁波を遮る材料を開発　日清オイリオなど

　日清オイリオグループは、山形大工学部の研究グループや米ぬか製造の三和油脂（山形県天童市）と共同で、電磁波を遮って吸収する特性を持つ大豆由来の炭素材料を開発した。電磁波遮へい素材として家電製品などに広く使われている石油系の「カーボンブラック」に代わる材料として、製品の軽量化や環境負荷の低減につながるとしている。

　大豆の種皮を焼いて作った粉に電磁波を吸収する特性があることをつきとめ、汎用ゴムなどに練り込める炭素材料として開発。「フィトポーラス」と名付けて売り出す。微細な空洞を多く持つ構造で、汎用ゴムなどに練り込んで使うと様々な製品を軽量化できる可能性があるという。2009年春をメドに商品化し、電機メーカーや自動車部品メーカーなどに売り込む。(11:24)

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11月大手百貨店、軒並み減収　松坂屋16％減

　本格的な年末商戦を前に、消費不振に拍車がかかってきた。大手百貨店の11月の売上高（速報）は松坂屋が前年同月比16.8％減となったほか、三越、高島屋などが軒並み減少。自動車販売は27％落ち込み、家電販売も前年を5％下回った。各社とも値下げセールで集客を目指すが、今年の冬のボーナス支給額は全産業で6年ぶりに前年割れとなる見通しで、年末商戦の苦戦は避けられそうもない。

　「店舗閉鎖がなければ、考えられない数字」。1日、松坂屋の11月売上高を聞いた他社幹部はこう漏らした。(07:00)

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製薬各社、日米欧アで同時治験　新薬の開発期間短縮

　第一三共など製薬各社が、日本と欧米やアジアで臨床試験（治験）を同時に進める国際共同治験を本格化する。新薬を患者に投与して有効性や安全性を調べる治験は多くの症例を集めるのに時間がかかる。各社は複数国で同時に実施することで症例数を増やし新薬の開発期間を短縮する。特許切れまでの優位性を維持できる販売期間を長くして収益向上を狙う。

　第一三共は脳梗塞（こうそく）などの治療に使う血液の抗凝固剤について、多数の患者に投与して有効性を確認する最終段階の治験を今月中にも日米欧で始める。これまで欧米の製薬会社と連携して国際共同治験を手掛けたことはあるが、自社単独で初めて日米欧での共同治験に乗り出す。(07:00)

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警視総監が訪韓　振り込め詐欺対策巡り情報交換

　警視庁の米村敏朗警視総監は3日から5日まで韓国を訪問し、ソウル特別市地方警察庁（ソウル市警）幹部らと会談する。振り込め詐欺対策を巡って情報交換するほか、韓国で深刻化している暴走族問題について、警視庁の取り締まり状況に関する資料を提供する。

　警視庁とソウル市警は1999年、犯罪捜査や治安維持などで協力態勢をとる友好結縁書を締結。今回、ソウル市警側から訪問要請があった。(20:01)

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ねんきん特別便、数万通が未着　郵便会社が配達ミス

　年金の記録漏れがないかを確認するために社会保険庁が9月ごろ発送したねんきん特別便で、数万通が加入者の手元に届いていないことが2日分かった。同庁から委託を受けた郵便事業会社が配達をし忘れていたことが原因。紛失などはしておらず近く配達される見込みという。

　配達されなかったのは大阪府など近畿向けの一部。郵便会社が各地の郵便局にねんきん特別便を振り分けた際に、一時的に紛失。その後の調査で、配達しないまま放置しているねんきん特別便の束が見つかった。(16:00)

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タイ：空港足止め…日本人「世話役」も登場

　【バンコク栗田慎一】先月２５日からタイの反政府団体に占拠され封鎖が続いているバンコク・スワンナプーム国際空港。２日、ソムチャイ政権の崩壊でようやく反政府団体が姿勢を軟化させ、占拠を解除することで合意した。だが運航再開は２週間後。帰国の足を奪われバンコク市内で足止めされている日本人旅行者は「とてもそんなに待てない」と失望の色を深めている。

　タイ国内には現時点で３０００人近い日本人旅行者が足止めされているとみられる。バンコクでは２日午後、スワンナプーム空港が近く再開されるとのうわさが飛び交い、「やっと帰れる」との喜びが広がった。

　しかしその後、「運航再開は今月１５日以降」との情報が伝わった。先月３０日に帰国予定だった東京都練馬区の会社員、仲村幸三さん（４７）は、宿泊先のホテルで「まさしくぬか喜び。そんなに待てない。やはり（軍基地からの）代替便で帰国する」と肩を落とした。

　市内のホテルには、言葉の壁から地元の関係者と意思疎通もできない日本人高齢者や添乗員のいないツアー客なども多い。困り果てた旅行者を助けようと、自らボランティアとして「世話役」を買って出る日本人旅行者が現れている。

　旅行で訪れ、先月２９日に帰国予定だった名古屋市中村区の心理カウンセラー、安江理世さんは、空港封鎖後、宿泊していたホテルで戸惑う日本人約１７０人を目にした。「代替便はあるのか」「宿泊費はどうなる」。言葉が十分に通じず、いらだちを募らせるばかり。見かねた安江さんはホテル側に掛け合い、２８日から情報収集と説明役を引き受けた。

　大阪府吹田市の男性会社員（５６）は「日本大使館に電話しても要領を得なかった。ここに来たことで代替便が予約できた」と語る。

　予定外の長期滞在に手持ちの現金が底を突く若者も出た。日本の旅行会社「エイチ・アイ・エス」バンコク支店は、日本で家族から入金してもらい、バンコクでその分を現金で支払うサービスを開始し、２日までに約２０人が利用した。

　タイのウィーラサック観光・スポーツ相は１日、タイ国内に足止めになっている外国人旅行者は、約２４万人に上るとの見方を示している。

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桂宮さま：ＩＣＵから一般病棟へ　東大医学部付属病院

　宮内庁は２日、敗血症のために東大医学部付属病院の集中治療室（ＩＣＵ）に入院している桂宮さま（６０）が同日、一般病棟に移ったと発表した。会見した金沢一郎・皇室医務主管は、退院については「回復の状況を見ながら判断していく」と話した。桂宮さまは９月２８日未明に体調を崩し、同病院に搬送されていた。

　金沢皇室医務主管によると、桂宮さまは当初、敗血症性ショックのために循環器系をはじめさまざまな部位にダメージを受け、回復が遅れていた。最近はリハビリが進んでいるという。

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子ども無保険：新潟、佐賀県知事が厚労省に法改正要望

　国民健康保険の保険料滞納に伴う子どもの「無保険」問題で、新潟、佐賀両県知事が２日、厚生労働省に江利川毅事務次官を訪ね、子どもを一律に給付停止の除外対象とするよう国民健康保険法の改正を要望した。子どもの無保険問題で、都道府県知事が法改正を求めるのは初めて。

　新潟県の泉田裕彦知事は会談で「子どもに滞納の責任はない。（子どもへの保険証交付を）法制度で位置づけるべきだ」と法改正を要請。佐賀県の古川康知事も「子どもの『受診抑制』を避けたいというのが現場の市町村の意見だ」と述べた。一方、江利川次官は「所得の低い人には（保険料）免除の規定もある」と大幅な制度改正に難色を示した。

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年金問題：厚生年金記録改ざん　手口次々明らかに－－厚労相の調査委
　◇レセプトには特別管理表／白紙書類に社印を押させ／従業員の報酬月額も下げ

　厚生年金記録の改ざんを巡る舛添要一厚生労働相の調査委員会による調査で、「診療報酬明細書（レセプト）の特別管理表があった」「白紙の書類に社判を押させた」などと社会保険事務所職員が証言し、組織的改ざんと隠ぺいの手口が明らかになった。保険料の徴収率を維持するため、経営者だけではなく従業員の標準報酬月額まで改ざんしたことを初めて認める証言もあった。これまで職員による改ざんを１件しか認めていなかった社会保険庁は、抜本的な対応の転換を迫られそうだ。【野倉恵】

　調査委は、社保庁本庁や社保事務所職員ら計約１万５０００人にアンケートをした。

　標準報酬月額の引き下げについて、首都圏の職員は「事業主から白紙の届け出書に社印と代表印を押させてもらっておき、後で職員が代筆した」と証言。事業主が行方不明なら三文判で勝手に脱退届を作る例もあった。

　東京都内の元社保事務所幹部は毎日新聞の取材に「各事務所に１００～２００個も三文判があった」と話している。

　従業員が受け取る年金を減らす標準報酬月額改ざんについて、ある社保事務所次長が「滞納額がどうしても減らない場合に行った」と述べた。徴収率の維持が目的だった。

　さかのぼって厚生年金から脱退させる遡及（そきゅう）脱退については、従業員の政府管掌健康保険の無資格受診が発覚しないよう「レセプトの抜き取りをした」とある課長が証言した。「（レセプトの）特別な管理表が作られていた」との証言もあった。

　休業などを装った偽装脱退では、別の課長が「標準報酬月額を引き下げるだけでは再び会社は滞納する」として、事業主を説得して脱退届を出させていたことを明かした。「必ず脱退処理を先にして、その後、滞納額を減らすため標準報酬月額をさかのぼって引き下げた」とする社保事務所次長もいた。

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トヨタ、管理職８７００人の賞与１割減　減産強化の方針

2008年12月2日12時7分

　トヨタ自動車は２日、今冬の管理職の一時金（賞与）を前年より１割削減したことを明らかにした。世界的な販売不振で、業績が悪化しているため。減産もさらに強める方針で、主力の田原工場（愛知県田原市）の生産ラインの一部や、宮田工場（福岡県宮若市）の操業を、２４、２５の両日停止する異例の措置に踏み切る。

　賞与は１日に支給した。削減の対象は、全従業員６万９千人のうち、課長級から理事、部長級までの約８７００人。管理職の賞与は、原則として業績に連動しており、０９年３月期の連結営業利益は、前期比７３％減の６千億円に落ち込む見通し。賞与の削減は、９８年に現行の給与制度になって初めてという。

　操業を停止するのは、高級車「レクサス」などを生産しているライン。田原、宮田両工場のほか、福岡県内の苅田工場と小倉工場も操業を停止。子会社のトヨタ自動車九州は事務系を含めて２日間休止する。米国とカナダの全１４工場も２２、２３の両日、操業を一斉停止する予定だが、国内工場での操業停止も避けられなくなった。来年１月以降は、田原、宮田両工場の一部の生産ラインの稼働を、夜間は停止し、昼間だけにする方針だ。

　世界的な景気減速に伴い、トヨタの１～１０月の販売台数は前年同期比１．６％減の６９０万台。中でもレクサスの落ち込みが激しく、同１３％減の３７万３千台となっている。