Bank of England 'did not expect' such a severe crash

Bank of England 'did not expect' such a severe crash

AFP

The Bank of England under-estimated how serious the credit crunch would be, its deputy governor admitted in comments due to be broadcast on Monday.

Sir John Gieve said that although the bank knew "crazy borrowing" was taking place, it did not think the crisis was going to be so deep as it turned out to be because it had not taken account of the impact of globalisation.

He also raised questions about whether the government would get its money back after propping up banks including Northern Rock, which it announced in February would be nationalised.

"We did see something coming, we did spot the global imbalances, we worried about them, we did spot some crazy borrowing going on... and we said actually for a couple of years before the crash that a correction was coming," Gieve told BBC television.

But he added: "We didn't think it was going to be anything like as severe as it turned out to be."

Gieve, who is to step down next year, was sharply criticised by lawmakers on parliament's Treasury Select Committee for his handling of the Northern Rock affair.

Questioned on why the central bank failed to spot the extent of the threat, Gieve said: "Why didn't we see it was so serious?

"I think that's because perhaps we hadn't kept pace with the extent of globalisation, so the upswing here didn't involve the big increases in earnings and consumption and activities which we saw in previous booms".

He wanted to see a new policy instrument "which makes it expensive for banks to expand rapidly in the upswing" and cushions them more in the downswing, describing interest rates as a "blunt instrument" because they affect the whole economy.

Speaking of the chances the government will get its money back after propping up Britain's banking sector, he said: "There are some books -- Northern Rock, Bradford & Bingley -- which the taxpayer's now holding which clearly have a level of defaults in them, (I'm) not quite sure how that will balance out against the residual of the capital".

But he added that "more mainstream banks" had a commercial future and would grow again.

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Central banks revolution gathers pace

By Krishna Guha in Washington, Chris Giles in London and Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

Published: December 22 2008 20:00 | Last updated: December 22 2008 20:00

A quiet revolution in central banking is gathering speed, as the Federal Reserve ploughs ever deeper into the brave new world of unorthodox monetary policy and other central banks ponder how far they might have to follow.

The world’s central banks have already undergone dramatic changes since the start of the credit crisis more than a year ago. They have cut interest rates with unprecedented rapidity – in some cases to historic lows – and have increased bank reserves massively to meet heightened private sector demand for liquidity.

$20 bills at the Bureau of Printing and Engraving in Washington: central banks are taking unprecedented action to increase the money supply by expanding their balance sheets
They have become de facto central counterparties in the money markets, and in some cases even direct lenders to companies. Moreover, by making liquidity available against collateral on terms far more favourable than those that prevail in the private markets, they have become in effect catastrophic risk insurers of last resort for whole classes of financial assets – taking on the risk that the crisis could become so bad that they cannot recoup their loans.

But the latest steps by the Federal Reserve – which cut interest rates virtually to zero last week and said it would create money to finance ever-larger credit operations – break new ground.

Already the Fed arguably has one companion, the Bank of Japan. The BoJ cut rates to nearly zero on Friday, stepped up its purchases of government bonds and said it would buy commercial paper.

When central banks want to stimulate a slowing economy they normally cut interest rates. But when rates approach zero other tactics must be employed.

Like the Fed, the BoJ is likely to end up funding these purchases by expanding its holdings of bank reserves and therefore the narrowest measure of the money supply. Unlike the Fed, it has the option of issuing its own debt instead.

The Bank of England, while cautioning against assuming that it will follow the Fed into unorthodox territory, is thinking about what it might do in certain circumstances if UK interest rates also fell towards zero.

The European Central Bank as a whole is much less prepared to countenance the possibility that eurozone interest rates might end up so low. However, ECB officials say this does not rule out some forms of innovative operations.

That these issues are even being discussed in so many big economies is truly remarkable. Radical as the measures taken by central banks collectively to date are, the territory that lies beyond zero rates is still more unfamiliar.

Only Japan has any experience of unorthodox monetary policy. At the turn of this decade it adopted a strategy of quantitative easing – increasing the money supply by increasing bank reserves – in the hope that this would end deflation and boost lending.

The strategies under consideration today bear some resemblance to Japan’s quantitative easing, since they involve swelling the central bank’s balance sheet by more than the amount required to accommodate an increase in the private sector’s demand for liquidity.

Richard Berner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, says the Fed’s strategy amounts to “targeted QE”. But senior Fed officials do not think quantitative easing was a big success in Japan. The Fed says its own strategy is to stimulate the economy by driving down actual borrowing rates – increasing reserves only as a by-product– and it prefers to call this credit policy or credit-based easing.

Even the BoJ does not think quantitative easing was an enormous success, and denies that what it is doing now amounts to the same thing.

The ECB remains distinctly wary about further cuts in official borrowing costs, now at 2.5 per cent, with some officials concerned about running out of ammunition – a concern that runs directly contrary to Fed thinking – or of sowing the seeds of the next bubble.

However, the ECB could still follow the Fed into the realms of unconventional policy actions if necessary. Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, told the FT the ECB’s balance sheet had increased by an “impressive” 55 per cent compared with a year ago.

He did not rule out the possibility of the ECB buying government debt at some stage, even though such an option was not currently being considered.

The Bank of England, for its part, stresses that it is still in the realm of conventional policy, with rates at 2 per cent and no difficulty holding them there. It has nearly doubled the amount of reserves to £44.6bn over the past year, in line with its convention that banks can demand whatever reserve levels they choose once a month.

But the Bank is making contingency plans for what would happen if rates had to go close to zero. Charles Bean, the deputy governor, told the FT such policies might have to be considered before rates reach zero and banks have little incentive to manage liquidity. The “essential purpose”, he said, would be to drive borrowing rates lower, and stimulate spending – the same logic that drives the Fed approach.

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Gieve comments send pound to new low

By Daniel Pimlott, Chris Giles and Peter Garnham

Published: December 22 2008 14:27 | Last updated: December 22 2008 18:35

The pound fell to a record low against the world’s currencies and approached parity with the euro after Sir John Gieve, the outgoing deputy governor of the Bank of England, became the latest bank official to call for new tools to help avoid a repeat of the credit crunch.

Sir John, who steps down next year, said interest rates were a “blunt instrument” for controlling both demand in the economy and financial excess, and that the central bank needed other methods of tackling profligate lending and asset price booms.

“We need to develop some new instruments which sit somewhere between interest rates, which affect the whole economy and activity, and individual supervision and regulation of individual banks,” he said in an interview with the BBC.

Currency traders took the latest comments from Bank officials as evidence they are growing more concerned about economic prospects. Traders also saw it as a sign that the Bank believes the chances have risen that inflation will be dangerously low for a long time.

The pound hit fresh record lows as expectations rose of further interest rates cuts.

The pound dropped 1.7 per cent to £0.9469 against the euro, within touching distance of the all-time trough of £0.9556 against the single currency last week.

The comments from Sir John emphasise the increasingly settled view at the Bank that interest rates are not an adequate tool to control bank lending.

Charlie Bean, the Bank’s other deputy governor, told the Financial Times last week that if “there’s more than one thing that worries you, both inflation for goods and services and asset price inflation, well you really need a second instrument”.

But while both deputy governors have been clear about wanting an alternative tool, they have been less specific about which instrument would work best.

One possibility, outlined in a speech last month by Sir John, is Spanish-style capital provisions forcing banks to build reserves when loan losses are low, to be drawn upon when the economy weakens and losses rise. In the same speech he suggested capital requirements could be linked to the pace of growth of lending and banks should be penalised for relying on risky funding.

Mr Bean has mooted compulsory capital insurance for banks, under which an insurer would compensate them if their capital levels were hit. This would help buffer them from losses when financial conditions deteriorated.

He added that new tools might either require legislation, or that the Bank could control banks through issuing recommendations to the Financial Services Authority over their capital levels.

Adair Turner, FSA chairman, is set to complete a report on financial regulation by the spring. With the Bank now clearly angling for a greater role in the monitoring of financial institutions, the Treasury will soon have to make a decision over how much territory can be ceded from the FSA.

In response to Sir John’s comments, a Treasury spokesman pointed to the report by Lord Turner, adding: “All three members of the tripartite [the Bank, FSA and Treasury] are working on how to take this debate forward and learn lessons from current events.”

The call for other means to manage lending levels is in line with Conservative party suggestions. George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, said Sir John’s comments added to the “growing weight of evidence that the regulatory system created by Gordon Brown was wholly inadequate”.

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Madoff investor warned its clients

By James Mackintosh in London

Published: December 22 2008 23:32 | Last updated: December 23 2008 00:40

One of the biggest investors in Bernard Madoff’s alleged $50bn fraud explicitly warned its clients of the danger that his brokerage “could abscond with those assets”, but still attracted $2.75bn, according to documents sent to investors.

Kingate Global, which channelled its money to Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities to manage, highlighted the risk of giving custody of its assets to its investment manager – Mr Madoff, although he was not named in the documents – and said they would not check the accuracy of statements he provided.

The alert is the most explicit in a series of warnings put into marketing material by “feeder” funds that put almost all their cash with Mr Madoff’s firm, and highlights how he was allegedly able to pull off what could be the biggest financial fraud ever.

Few of the funds named Mr Madoff or his brokerage in their documents, while others went out of their way to claim they were monitoring the performance of their manager to ensure trades were executed as claimed.

The question of what investors were told about the feeder funds’ links to Madoff has become a key element of the first court case to be filed by an investor, and lawyers say they are examining documents of other funds to establish whom to sue.

In its action against Ascot Partners, a Madoff feeder fund run by Ezra Merkin, chairman of GMAC, the New York Law School says it would never have invested $3m if documents had disclosed that “virtually all of Ascot’s assets” were invested with Madoff.

Some funds openly boasted of their links to Madoff and many investors were keen to invest.

Fairfield Greenwich, which operated the biggest feeder fund, said in marketing documents that Madoff’s services were “essential to the continued operation of the fund”. Fairfield declined to comment.

The marketing documents for the $7.3bn Fairfield Sentry fund said it would “maintain full transparency to BLM [Madoff Securities] accounts” with “independent verification of prices and account values”.

All the funds reported similar returns – steady positive returns with an occasional monthly loss. Defender, a fund from British Virgin Islands-based Reliance, claimed the strategy had lost money only 11 times since 1992, with a maximum monthly loss of 1.64 per cent. Kingate warned in its fund prospectus “there was always the risk that the assets with the investment adviser could be misappropriated”.

“In addition, information supplied by the investment adviser may be inaccurate or even fraudulent. The co-managers [Kingate and Tremont] are entitled to rely on such information (provided they do so in good faith) and are not required to undertake any due diligence to confirm the accuracy thereof,” it said.

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UAE leader says economy can weather financial storm

AFP

The president of the United Arab Emirates said in comments published on Tuesday that the budget for 2009 will be the largest in almost four decades despite the global economic crisis.

"We can record that the federal government budget for 2009 will be the highest since the federation's establishment in 1971," Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahayan told the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper.

He said the oil-rich country, which has been hit by plunging crude prices, would not scale back government spending on infrastructure and public projects.

The UAE government announced in October it has adopted a budget of 42.2 billion dirhams (about 11.5 billion dollars) for next year.

"The slump in oil prices and the global recession will not sidetrack us from providing the budget without any cuts," Sheikh Khalifa said.

He said the country's economy was strong and could weather the financial crisis and the decline in oil prices, adding that demand for crude would rise in the near future, asserting the crisis is a temporary matter.

"The UAE has a solid economic base that can withstand the effects of this crisis. This crisis is temporary, however long it will be, and the oil producing countries must be prepared for a high rise in global demand when the world markets recover."

However the financial crisis has taken its toll on stock markets in the Gulf country, which are at four-year lows.

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Saudi to slash 2009 spending as budget deficit forecast

AFP Paul Handley

The Saudi government said on Monday that it will spend more than it earns next year, despite cutting back its plans, as plummetting oil prices are likely to carve a big chunk out of revenues.

The oil-rich kingdom vowed to maintain spending on major projects, as the first budget deficit since 2002 follows a record year in 2008, when a leap in oil prices produced a budget surplus double the projected level.

"In spite of the decline in oil price during the last part of 2008, this year's budget will continue to focus on optimizing the use of available resources," the ministry of finance said in its budget statement.

The crash in the oil prices to between 40 and 45 dollars a barrel on Monday from a July peak above 147 dollars has raised questions over whether the world's largest oil exporter can sustain hundreds of billions of dollars worth of ambitious mega-projects announced over the past three years.

The ministry said the government will give priority to "projects that ensure sustainable and balanced development as well as more employment opportunities and job creation."

Riyadh plans to cut budget spending by 6.9 percent to 475 billion riyals (127 billion dollars) in 2009 from a projected 510 billion riyals (136 billion dollars) in 2008, but nevertheless expects to post a a 65 billion riyals (17.3 billion dollars) shortfall.

The predicted deficit comes after Saudi Arabia piled up its best-ever surplus of 590 billion riyals (157 billion dollars) in 2008.

With government spending the main driver in the Saudi economy, the plan to go into the red suggests Riyadh will tap into its massive foreign reserves to forestall a sharp slowdown next year as the global economic crisis affects the kingdom.

"The budget will give particular attention to infrastructure and social services, especially education, health, social affairs, municipal services, water and sewage, and roads," the ministry said.

Economists downplayed the projected fall in spending from the 2008 target, saying that Riyadh always spends more than it budgets, including this year when actual payouts were far higher than the budgeted 410 billion riyals.

"They always overspend, so we assume actual spending for next year will be higher," said Paul Gamble, head of research at Jadwa Investment in Riyadh.

Gamble said the budget appears to be aimed at Saudis worried over the fall in oil prices and the impact on the Saudi economy of the global financial crisis.

"For the guy in the street, this will really assure him that the government hasn't been affected by the collapse in oil prices," he said.

But the key will be the course of oil prices. Jadwa calculates that the 2009 budget is calculated on a basis of the Saudis exporting an average of 8.1 million barrels a day of oil at an average market price for benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude of 48 dollars a barrel.

In its statement the Finance Ministry said economic growth in 2008 should hit 4.2 percent, but it made no projection for 2009.

Last week Riyadh Jadwa predicted that Saudi economic growth will slow to 1.5 percent in 2009, dented by the US financial crisis and the global economic meltdown.

However, the company said the government's net foreign assets, put at 433 billion dollars at the end of September, "give Saudi Arabia an advantage over most other countries in alleviating the impact of the extreme financing pressures."

"They mean it can push ahead with strategic projects such as key infrastructure, oil, power and water, and support the private sector where necessary."

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Swiss Re in 1.5-bln-dlr Letter of Credit deal with JP Morgan

AFP

The world's biggest reinsurer Swiss Re on Monday said it has obtained a 1.5-billion-dollar (1.07 billion euros) Letter of Credit facility from JP Morgan.

"Through the long-term letter of credit facility with JP Morgan, Swiss Re demonstrates its access to long-term financing at competitive rates," said the reinsurer in a statement.

Letters of credit are often used in international transactions to ensure that payment would be received.

The reinsurer's arrangement with JP Morgan lasts for 20 years, and replaces existing arrangements the reinsurer currently has in place.

Jacques Aigrain, Swiss Re's Chief Executive Officer, said: "We have concluded an attractive, long-term arrangement with JP Morgan which will further enhance our position to be able to benefit from opportunities that arise from the current market environment."

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Champagne producers fear bubble has burst

By Scheherazade Daneshkhu in Epernay

Published: December 23 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 23 2008 02:00

Not even the fear of fewer corks popping out of bottles at Christmas and New Year was going to spoil the annual weekend celebrations at the grand mansions lining the Avenue de Champagne in Epernay, the heart of France's champagne region.

But the outlook recently has been bleaker: champagne sales fell by 16.5 per cent in October, according to the most recent industry figures, compared with the same month last year. They are down by 4.9 per cent in the nine months to the end of October.

This is the first annual fall since 2000, when millennium sales and over-stocking in 1999 led to an industry hangover the following year. "The credit crunch and the slowdown in the real economy are starting to hit us," says Patrice Noyelle, president of Pol Roger, in his office in the former family chateau in Epernay.

Mr Noyelle says sales of the brand "are dropping in England, Australia and Sweden. But when you look at other industries - take cars, for example - well, 2008 won't be the record year for the industry that it was in 2007 but it will still be a good year".

Laurent-Perrier, maker of Grand Siècle champagne, last month reported a 35 per cent drop in first-half profits due to lower demand, particularly from the US, the worst-affected and second-largest export market for champagne after the UK.

The drop in sales is partly due to over-cautious and cash-constrained stockists, says Ghislain de Montgolfier, head of Bollinger champagne and president of the champagne producers' association. Like many in the industry, he is not too worried about the all-important end of year sales - which usually account for 40 per cent of the annual total.

But it is the outlook for next year that is uncertain.

Prices have risen by an average of 11 per cent per annum over the past three years, while volumes have risen by only 7 per cent, according to analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort. Mr Noyelle says Pol Roger has decided not to raise prices in 2009, for the first time in 15 years - at least for its exports, which account for 80 per cent of the 1.65m bottles it sells annually.

But if any industry is used to taking a long-term view, champagne is certainly one. In Pol Roger's 7.5km of recently renovated cellars 25m below ground, Mr Noyelle stops in front of 300,000 neatly stacked 2007 bottles. They will not be drunk until 2010. "I like to recall what Winston Churchill said about champagne," he says. "In victory I deserve it, in defeat I need it."

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Behind the YouTube, Warner divorce

AFP Chris Lefkow

YouTube and Warner Music Group are getting a divorce in a split which illustrates some of the difficult issues facing the recording industry in the digital era.

As album sales decline and online piracy bites into their profits, major record labels have been forging new arrangements such as deals with MySpace, Apple's iTunes and Google's YouTube to generate new revenue streams.

But YouTube and Warner, home to Eric Clapton, Kid Rock, Madonna, the Red Hot Chili Peppers, Green Day and other music royalty, said over the weekend that they were ending their two-year partnership.

In a statement announcing the breakup, YouTube noted that "music licensing is very complicated."

"We work with the music industry worldwide -- with major and independent labels and publishers, rights collecting societies, and with artists and songwriters directly -- to build user-friendly licensing arrangements," it said.

"That said, despite our constant efforts, it isn't always possible to maintain these innovative agreements," YouTube said. "Sometimes, if we can't reach acceptable business terms, we must part ways with successful partners."

Warner for its part said it is "working actively to find a resolution with YouTube that would enable the return of our artists' content to the site.

"Until then, we simply cannot accept terms that fail to appropriately and fairly compensate recording artists, songwriters, labels and publishers for the value they provide," it added in a statement.

A number of music videos by Warner artists were still available on YouTube on Monday but some requests were being met with a black screen and the phrase "We're sorry, this video is no longer available."

All four major record labels -- Warner, Universal Music Group, Sony BMG and EMI -- have licensing agreements with YouTube but they have met with starkly different degrees of satisfaction.

While Warner and YouTube were failing to reach agreement in last-ditch talks last week, a Universal executive was quoted as saying that YouTube was bringing in "tens of millions of dollars" to the company.

Rio Caraeff, the head of Universal's digital group, told the Internet news agency CNET.com that YouTube was "growing tremendously" as a revenue stream.

"It's up almost 80 percent for us year-over-year in the US in terms of our revenue from this category," he said. "Since 2005, Universal has gone from making zero dollars on music videos to nearly 100 million dollars."

CNET quoted a music industry source close to the label as saying the figure includes video-streaming money from other partners such as imeem, MTV and MySpace Music but most of the revenue comes from YouTube.

The music labels' agreements with YouTube reportedly call for them to split advertising revenue on videos posted on the site, which Internet search king Google bought for 1.65 billion dollars in October 2006.

The record labels also receive a small fee for each video watched on YouTube -- an arrangement which may actually be costing the video-sharing site money as not all videos are ad-supported.

Music channels are among the most popular on YouTube and videos on Universal's YouTube channel have received more than three billion views.

Warner's channel has received considerably fewer views -- 250 million.

Analyst Rob Enderle of Silicon Valley's Enderle Group said it was in the interest of both YouTube and Warner to reach a new licensing agreement.

"Look at this like a negotiating ploy," he said. "It's how to get the other side back to the table.

"Warner's not going to be making any money while they're off the site," he said. "And YouTube not having the properties means that people are going to be going someplace else for them.

"Both sides are motivated to find some middle ground," he said.

Enderle also noted that the YouTube-Warner spat coincides with Google's efforts to turn YouTube's massive popularity into a money-making venture.

"They've beeen trying to monetize YouTube pretty aggressively," he said. "And the different labels just want to make sure they're getting their fair share."

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Paris Club creditors waive half Iraq's remaining debt to members
20:01 | 22/ 12/ 2008

PARIS, December 22 (RIA Novosti) - The Paris Club of creditor nations on Monday canceled half of Iraq's $15.6 billion debt in the final stage of a four-year debt reduction program.

The cancelation of the $7.8 million leaves just 20% - another $7.8 million - of its debt to the club from four years ago.

The Paris Club and Iraq agreed in November 2004 "on a comprehensive debt treatment of public external debt providing a total amount of debt reduction of 80% in three phases."

The creditors agreed to waive about $32 billion of Iraq's debt, dating from the Saddam Hussein era. The country's debt to all nations once stood at $125 billion.

The first two phases came in November 2004 and December 2005, reducing Iraq's debt to Paris Club creditors by 60%.

The remaining third phase granting an additional 20% debt reduction was conditional on the successful completion of the review of a 3-year implementation of arrangements with the IMF.

The Paris Club said Iraq "has made its best efforts to seek comparable treatment from all its other external creditors."

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Japan wanted the US to nuke China in case of war
22.12.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/asia/106856-japan_china-0

The government of Japan offered the United States to strike a nuclear blow on China without hesitation in case of war in the Far East in the 20th century. Many Tokyo’s newspapers published shocking reports about the declassified documents of the Japanese Foreign Ministry dated from 1962-1974.

One of the documents says that then Prime Minister of Japan Eisaku Sato had a meeting with then Pentagon head Robert McNamara in January 1965. The Japanese prime minister offered Washington to strike a nuclear blow on China from if the two Asian nations went to war. The minister’s statements made during the meeting virtually approved the import of US nuclear weapons in Japan in case of emergency.

On the other hand, it was Eisaku Sato, who proclaimed the so-called three non-nuclear principles in the Japanese parliament in 1967: not to possess, produce or allow the entry of nuclear weapons. Sato’s anti-nuclear campaign earned him a Peace Nobel Prize in 1974, Itar-Tass reports.

The documents have thus cast a shadow on the sincerity of Eisaku Sato and all of his successors. The incumbent government of Japan released quite a dubious statement to explain the shocking publications. Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura (official No.2 in the Japanese government) stated at a press conference in Tokyo that the USA had not delivered its nuclear weapons in the country because Washington had never made an official notification of that.

“The entry of nuclear weapons is a subject of preliminary talks with the United States. The USA has never asked for the talks. That is why, as we conclude, there was no entry of nuclear weapons,” he said.

The government of Japan has been previously accused of turning a blind eye on US warships and submarines with nuclear weapons on board arriving at the nation’s ports. A well-known scientist of politics, Takahiro Tanaka described such a stance as the great deception of the nation which had suffered the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

China has been paying a lot of attention to the growth of the nuclear potential recently, which the US administration does not leave out of its attention, of course. The Committee on International Security of the US State Department pointed out the danger of China’s growing nuclear arsenal a year ago. The committee published a report, in which it was said that China was capable of striking a serious blow on the United States, which did not let the US administration interfere into the possible conflict between Taiwan and China.

There is a different point of view on the matter, though. Beijing feared an attack from the USA and from the USSR during the second half of the 20th century, The Guardian wrote. However, China has never taken any efforts to overcome the enormous nuclear arsenals of the two superpowers. China was only prepared to strike back. The essence of the Chinese policy has not changed during the recent years - the nation still follows the containment policy, the newspaper wrote. China increases its nuclear potential to match the balance of forces of the 1970s and the 1980s, for the USA has increased its military resources since then, having undermined the correlation of forces of those years.

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UK sees no role in regime for Mugabe

By James Blitz in London and Richard Lapper in Johannesburg

Published: December 22 2008 12:46 | Last updated: December 22 2008 20:14

Britain plans to make a fresh attempt next year to persuade the European Union to step up economic sanctions against Robert Mugabe’s regime in Zimbabwe after it bluntly declared for the first time that he could no longer be part of any political solution to the country’s crisis.

Mr Mugabe was an “absolutely impossible obstacle” to achieving a power sharing agreement in Zimbabwe, the government said, echoing US criticisms. Officials said London would press to extend the list of senior members of the Mugabe regime who were subject to sanctions.

This came after Mr Mugabe increased his defiance of the outside world, vowing at a conference of the ruling Zanu-PF party that he would never step down, even as conditions in his homeland deteriorated.

Some 178 senior Zimbabwean officials are subject to EU sanctions which restrict their travel and business activities. The UK is to push early next year for the number to be increased and for broader penalties.

The UK would like to see more measures taken against John Bredenkamp, a prominent Zimbabwean businessman. The UK is his adopted home and the US has accused him of backing Mugabe’s regime. His spokesman has challenged the claim.

British officials say there is no longer any hope of securing a power sharing agreement between Mr Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, which won elections in March but withdrew from a second round after violence against its supporters.

Talks over the agreement’s implementation have been deadlocked for more than three months, mainly because Mr Mugabe has refused to concede the home affairs ministry that controls the police force.

Lacking a government, Zimbabwe’s crisis has deepened. The collapse of the water supply and other basic infrastructure has triggered an epidemic of cholera, which has killed more than 1,100 over the past six weeks.

Withdrawing US support for the power sharing deal on Sunday, Jendayi Frazer, US assistant secretary of state for Africa, said Mr Mugabe was “completely out of touch” and responsible for turning the once prosperous country into a “failed state”.

The EU has been cautious when imposing sanctions. “We have been careful about punishing the private sector because when Mugabe goes you will need a functioning private sector,” said a senior UK official.

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'Global land grab' causing alarm among NGOs

AFP Fabien Zamora

The global food and financial crises have combined to create a new form of colonialism in which countries short of resources and corporations desperate for profits are buying up arable land in emerging nations, NGOs say.

The non-governmental organisations have expressed concern at this "global land grab," which they say is threatening the survival of rural livelihoods in some parts of the world.

The practice is being carried out in part by countries which have little arable land and have been hit this year by soaring food prices, and by investors who are getting burned in the financial crisis and are tempted by the profits from food products.

"On the one hand, 'food insecure' governments that rely on imports to feed their people are snatching up vast areas of farmland abroad for their own offshore food production," said the Spanish-based NGO Grain.

"On the other hand, food corporations and private investors, hungry for profits in the midst of the deepening financial crisis, see investment in foreign farmland as an important new source of revenue."

The result is that fertile agricultural land is becoming privatised and concentrated.

"Did someone say colonialism was a thing of the past?" Grain asked.

Among the countries looking for concessions are Arab countries in the Gulf, as well as China, Egypt, India, Japan and South Korea.

Among the target countries are the Philippines, Cambodia, Uganda and Brazil, said Grain.

Another NGO, International Land Coalition, has also voiced unease at the trend.

"The globalisation of land markets, combined with increasing opportunities for profit from agricultural production, is provoking increased speculation in agricultural land by multinational companies, including investment banks," it said.

South Korean group Daewoo Logistics is negotiating with the government of Madagascar for the acquisition of 1.3 million hectares of land, the equivalent of more than half of the land under cultivation in the country, to produce maize and palm oil.

The buying up of arable land "is a phenomenon of huge magnitude" which has undergone "a sudden acceleration," said Paul Mathieu, of the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation's Land Tenure and Management unit.

He said the trend presents risks as well as opportunities.

The investors will "not only remove the land, but also the local farmers", with "real and major risks: impoverishment, extreme social tension, civil unrest," he said.

On the other hand, "more investment capital in agriculture, when well-managed, can contribute to real rural development."

But Grain is more pessimistic.

"If left unchecked, this global land grab could spell the end of small-scale farming, and rural livelihoods, in numerous places around the world," it said.

The FAO recently issued a document on good real estate practices in which it called for increased transparency in transactions between investor states and local communities giving up territory.

"There may be very positive practices in the negotiations between outside investors and the local community, in which both are looking for a win-win situation," it said.

"But it is not won in advance as the negotiations are very uneven in terms of economic power and access to information."

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Russian arms suspect claims US framed him

By Stephen Fidler in London

Published: December 22 2008 19:00 | Last updated: December 22 2008 19:00

A suspected Russian arms dealer appeared in a Thai court on Monday, shackled and wearing an orange prison jump suit, and claimed he had been framed by the US to damage Russia’s relations with Thailand.

Viktor Bout, 41, a former Soviet military officer who faces charges of conspiring to sell weapons to terrorists, is fighting extradition to the US.

He was arrested in a Bangkok hotel in March after a “sting” operation mounted by the US Drug Enforcement Administration and including the Thai police.

According to Agence France-Presse, Mr Bout told the court: “I was framed.”

He added: “I have done no crime, I have done no terrorist act. They have framed me because the US does not want relations between Thailand and Russia to develop more.”

The US is seeking his extradition to face charges before a New York court, along with an alleged accomplice Andrew Smulian. Among other things, it is alleged that they conspired to sell millions of dollars worth of weapons to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc), to be used to kill Americans in the South American state.

The weapons he allegedly planned to sell included surface-to-air missile systems, armour-piercing rocket launchers, AK-47 automatic rifles, anti-personnel land mines, plastic explosives and unmanned aerial vehicles. He faces a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.

The US indictment claims he assembled a fleet of cargo aircraft capable of transporting weapons and military equipment around the world, but used an international network of front companies that often delivered lawful goods.

According to AFP, when asked by his lawyer if he had sold arms to the Farc, he denied involvement: “It’s not true. I have never met anyone from Farc. I have never been to Colombia.”

Mr Bout is often dubbed the “merchant of death” after he was so called by a British minister for Africa, Peter Hain, in 2000. He was placed in 2004 by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control on the specially designated nationals list, which forbids transactions between him and US nationals.

His supposed associate, Mr Smulian, allegedly told a DEA informant that Mr Bout had $6bn in assets frozen around the world following claims about his alleged arms trafficking activities in numerous UN reports.

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FGEC ministers to meet in Moscow today to adopt Charter

23.12.2008, 03.03

MOSCOW, December 23 (Itar-Tass) - The 7th meeting of the relevant ministers of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (FGEC) is to be held here on Tuesday. Those present are to lay the foundations of and adopt a Charter of a respective international intergovernmental organsation.

It is the first time that a ministerial meeting of gas suppliers takes place on the territory of this country. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation is expected to address the Forum. Russia is to be represented at the ministerial meeting by Minister of Energy Sergei Shmatko.

An official at the Ministry of Energy has told Itar-Tass, "Those present at the meeting are expected to consider and adopt a draft Charter of the Forum, work out assignments and draw up necessary documents for the founding of a new organisation".

The Ministers of Algeria, Bolivia, Venezuela, Egypt, Libya, Iran, Norway, Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago, and Equatorial Guinea have already confirmed their participation in the forum officially. Representatives of France, Greece, and Holland are expected to take part in the Forum as guests.

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Uzbekistan doubles price of gas for Tajikistan

22.12.2008, 10.31

DUSHANBE, December 22 (Itar-Tass) -- Uzbekistan has determined a new price of gas supply for Tajikistan in 2009 - - 300 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters, general director of the state unitary enterprise Tajikgaz Fatkhiddin Mukhsiddinov told ITAR-TASS on Monday, stressing that this is over two-fold higher than the price of 2007.

“The price is, frankly speaking, stunning, and we never expected from the Uzbek side such a sharp price rise at the time when gas exporting countries in the whole world are reducing the price of “blue fuel,” Mukhsiddinov stressed. According to him, “nevertheless, the Tajik side continues talks insisting on the reduction of the cost of gas, believing that in conditions of the crisis and the total slump in prices even 145 dollars is a too high figure.”

Tajikistan, having major reserves of gas, annually imports it from Uzbekistan. At the same time, it is expected that in the coming two or three years the country will be able to completely satisfy its requirements in this kind of fuel. At present, Russia’s Gazprom is developing four promising gas fields in Tajikistan and the well-known Canadian company Tethys Petroleum is also active.

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Russia to double annual financial aid to poor nations by 2011

16:23 | 22/ 12/ 2008

MOSCOW, December 22 (RIA Novosti) - Russia will increase its annual financial aid to the world's most impoverished nations from $220 million to $400 million-$500 million by 2011, a deputy finance minister said on Monday.

Russia annually channeled $50 million-$60 million to impoverished nations from the budget in 2003-2005.

However, Dmitry Pankin said, Russia itself could consider foreign borrowing if oil prices keep falling or stay at $30 per barrel over a long period.

The World Bank's leading economist for Russia Zeljko Bogetic said last week that Moscow would have to apply for a loan to the IMF and WB if oil prices stay within $30 per barrel for a couple of years, but described the scenario as unrealistic.

"Currently we have no such plans. We have enough reserves to resolve all our problems in 2009 and 2010," Pankin said. "If low oil prices persist, we could reconsider our foreign loan strategy in the next couple of years."

The World Bank's Country Director for Russia Klaus Rohland said at a news conference on Monday the WB did not expect Russia to seek a foreign loan within the next two years.

The WB expects the global economy to overcome the recession in the latter half of 2009, with oil demand and prices on the rise again. The bank said its economic forecast for 2009 was based on an average oil price of $75 per barrel.

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Turkey to buy 32 Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia - report
13:13 | 22/ 12/ 2008

ANKARA, December 22 (RIA Novosti) - Turkey plans to buy 32 used Mi-28 (Havoc) helicopters from Russia in a deal worth a total of $1 billion, a national Turkish daily reported on Monday.

Vatan said the decision to buy helicopters from Russia was made after talks for purchases of Cobra and Super Cobra helicopter gunships failed with the United States.

Russian helicopters will tide Turkey over until deliveries of Agusta A-129 Mangusta helicopters, co-produced with Italy's Agusta Westland, are received by the Turkish Armed Forces. The Italian company won a tender for the production of 52 helicopters in 2007.

The Turkish Defense Ministry has yet to officially confirm the report by Vatan.

The Mi-28 is an all-weather day-night attack helicopter manufactured by the Rostvertol plant in southern Russia.

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S-300s for Iran: an argument for peace
15:46 | 19/ 12/ 2008

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) - The likelihood of Russia supplying S-300 surface-to-air systems to Iran has always been a headache for the United States and its allies.

For several years the media has reported the conclusion of a contract or even the actual shipment of long-range air defense missiles to Iran. As a rule, these reports came from Iranian sources and were later denied by Russia.

On December 17, 2008, RIA Novosti, quoting confidential sources, reported on its website that Russia is to deliver S-300 surface-to-air systems to Iran. Which, based on previous experience, is most likely true. How will the balance of strength change in this region if Iran really gets the systems? (Russian mobile surface-to-air missile systems - Image gallery)

Before considering an answer, it is necessary to see what weapons Iran's armed forces will receive and in what quantities.

It has been repeatedly stated that Iran expects to get five battalions of S-300PMUs, or up to 20 systems (60 launchers), depending on the make-up of a battalion. Each of the launchers carries four 48N6E missiles (48N6E2s with the PMU-2 mobile launchers) with a range of 150 kilometers (up to 200 kilometers for the 48N6E2s). Each launch system consists of three launchers and is capable of engaging six targets at the same time, aiming 12 missiles at them. One battalion consisting of four systems is, therefore, capable of dealing with 24 aircraft simultaneously. After changing position and replenishing ammunition, it can be quickly re-deployed for repulsing a repeat raid.

It should be remembered that S-300 missiles themselves need to be protected - for this purpose Iran can use Tor-M1 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and Chinese FM-80s. Coupled with S-300s, these short-range missiles can set up a credible air defense system able to protect the facility covered and itself. In this tandem, S-300s will act as a long arm to shoot down sophisticated targets at long distances, while close-in weapons will protect the facility and S-300s from cruise missiles, aircraft and UAVs that break through.

Five battalions of S-300 SAMs will contribute significantly not only to the protection of designated facilities, but also to the defense capability of the country as a whole. Deliveries of new SAMs will make it possible to move old systems to other parts of the country, increasing its air defense density. Should Iran have time to deploy the Russian systems and to control the grouping, the overall damage from air defenses may exceed the threshold acceptable to Iran's potential opponents.

S-300s do not, of course, guarantee Iran's invincibility or invulnerability. The U.S. Air Force and naval aviation can, if necessary, break through even these defenses. At issue is the time required and acceptable level of loss. Ultimately, the question may prove to be the main argument in the hands of those opposed to a military operation against Iran and remove an Iran-U.S. armed conflict from the agenda for a long time.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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Russia’s Bulava missile explodes during decisive test
23.12.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/106862-bulava-0

The test launch of the sea-based Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile ended unsuccessfully Tuesday. The self-destructing mechanism of the missile was activated soon after it had been launched from the Dmitry Donskoy nuclear submarine, Interfax reports with reference to a source at the Russian defense industry.

The first and the second stages of the missile operated according to a standard procedure, but a malfunction occurred during the operation of the third stage. The missile was given a command to destroy itself. The self-destruction of the Bulava rocket caused no injuries.

It was previously reported that Russia's top military officials viewed this test as a decisive launch. The military administration of the Russian Federation was going to pass the Bulava missile into service to begin a serial production of the complex in case of a successful launch.

There were seven launches of the Bulava rocket made before, and four of them ended unsuccessfully, news agencies report.

The Dmitry Donskoy strategic submarine conducted a successful test-launch of the Bulava rocket from the White Sea. The missile is expected to be passed into service in 2009.

The intercontinental solid-fuel ballistic missile Bulava was designed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology. The missile is capable of carrying up to ten individually guided nuclear blocks and striking targets within a radius of up to 8,000 kilometers. The missile is designed for Borei class nuclear submarines, which will be outfitted with 16 missiles each. The heavy nuclear-powered submarine Dmitry Donskoy was prepared to conduct the missile tests. Several test launches of the Bulava missile ended unsuccessfully in 2007.

The Bulava carries the NATO reporting name SS-NX-30 and has been assigned the GRAU index 3M30. In international treaties, the common designation RSM-56 is used.

The decision on developing the “Bulava” missile was adopted in 1998 after three unsuccessful tests of the “Bark” missile of the Miass Construction Bureau named after Makeev.

The Bulava design is based on the SS-27 (Topol M), but is both lighter and more sophisticated. The two missiles are expected to have comparable ranges, and similar CEP and warhead configurations.

The Russian military developed Bulava to possess advanced defense capabilities making it nearly impervious to existing and future missile-defense systems. Among its claimed abilities are evasive maneuvering, mid-course countermeasures and decoys and a warhead fully shielded against both physical and EMP damage. The Bulava is designed to be capable of surviving a nuclear blast at a minimum distance of 500 meters. Prime Minister Putin has stated that Bulava could penetrate any potential anti-missile defense system.

The current version of the Bulava is able to carry up to six MIRV warheads, future variants are expected to carry a maximum of ten. A full-capacity payload requires the forfeiture of all final stage countermeasures and of some shielding.

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０９年も破綻加速…２１兆円追加対策の越年は深刻

東京商工リサーチ情報部・統括部長に聞く
東京商工リサーチ情報部の友田信男統括部長

　ダイア建設、リーマン・ブラザーズ証券、大和生命保険…。今年も多くの企業が息絶えた。先週末に民事再生法の適用を申請したダイア建設を含め、今年に入って破綻した上場企業は戦後最多の３３社。この流れは２００９年も続くのだろうか。東京商工リサーチ情報部の友田信男統括部長＝写真＝に聞いた。

　－－大企業の倒産が相次いでいる

　「リーマン・ブラザーズ証券、大和生命など未上場の大企業もあるが、今年は上場企業の倒産が３３社に上っている。これは昨年１年間（６社）の５倍以上だ」

　－－今年は不動産、建設業の倒産が多い。０８年３月期に過去最高の最終利益３１０億円を出しながらつぶれたアーバンコーポレイション（広島）には驚いた

　「今年の不動産破綻の象徴だろう。一定の投資家から集めた資金でオフィスビルなどを開発し、丸ごと転売する不動産流動化をアーバンは積極的に展開していた。ところが、転売先が資金繰りに困るようになって手を引き、投資を回収する機会が急激に減ったのが破綻の原因。興味深いのは、税金も破綻の一因になっていること」

　－－税金とは

　「法人税です。３月期決算の会社は６月に法人税を払う。法人税は現金で払うが、アーバンは過去最高益で１５０億円規模の法人税が一気にのしかかった。３月期に大幅な黒字を出し、７月以降にバタバタと倒産した不動産会社は、法人税の支払いが引き金になったところが少なくない」

　－－倒産を減らすための妙案は？

　「金融危機真っただ中の１９９８年、金融機関の中小企業への貸し渋りが相次ぎ、倒産が激増した。当時、政府は、中小企業向けに３０兆円の資金繰り対策を実施し、１カ月当たりの倒産が２００件ずつ減るなど一定の効果があった。倒産を減らせるかどうかの１つのカギは、麻生政権の経済対策にある」

　－－８月発表の総合経済対策で９兆円規模の中小企業対策を実施した。しかし、１０月発表の追加経済対策（２１兆円規模の中小企業対策）の国会提出は越年してしまった

　「これは深刻だ。９兆円では全国の中小企業を支えられず、追加経済対策が実施されるまでに力尽きるところが必ず出てくる。２１兆円の追加支援があれば、倒産は減ると思うのだが」

　－－２１兆円の追加支援が実施されれば、倒産ラッシュは収束する？

　「いや、状況は改善するが収束しないとみる。今の状況は９８年のときより悪い。当時は輸出産業が好調だったが、今は急激な円高と販売不振で輸出産業は青息吐息だ。欧米が不況のため、為替相場が短期間で元に戻るとは考えづらい」

　「また、日経平均株価が８０００円前後のレベルでは、多くの金融機関が保有株式に含み損を抱える。自己資本の毀損を踏まえると、会社に貸したくても貸せない。不動産、建設に限らず、すべての業種で倒産リスクが拡大することになる」

　－－確かに、永田町ではメガバンクの一時国有化なんて話もまことしやかに語られている。明るい材料は

　「企業調査を進めて分かったことは、金融機関は一律に不動産、建設業などを狙い撃ちして融資姿勢を硬化させたわけではないということ。しっかりとしたビジョンを持つ不動産会社や、技術など競争力のある会社には、赤字でも融資している。いかに力強い経営ビジョンを示せるかが、生き残る上での大きなカギになる」

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「１年以内に経営破綻リスク」倒産予備軍１０７社リスト

東京商工リサーチ集計

　２００８年９月中間期決算で、１年以内に経営破綻するリスクを抱えている上場企業（東京、大阪、名古屋、札幌、ジャスダック各証券取引所）が１０７社に上ることが２２日、東京商工リサーチの集計で分かった。経済が混迷するなか、倒産リスクを抱える“イエローカード企業”は増加傾向にあり、同社は「０９年３月期にはさらに増える」とみている。

　上場企業の経営者は、会社が１年以内に破綻するようなリスクを抱えていると判断した場合、リスクの中身と対応策を決算書に明記しなくてはいけない。

　また、経営をチェックする監査人も、担当企業に破綻リスクが存在する場合、監査報告書に注意を促すための「注記」を記載する。投資家にとり注記は、監査人が認めた“イエローカード企業”の意味合いがある。

　東京商工リサーチ情報部の増田和史氏は「０３年３月期決算から破綻リスクの開示制度が導入されて以降、注記が付いた会社数は今回が最多。０８年９月中間期に新たに注記が付いたのは１８社だが、これは尋常でない数だ」と解説する。

　同社のもともとの集計では、注記が付いたのは１０９社だった。が、集計前後で破綻したり上場廃止になったりした会社が２社あり、これを差し引くと１０７社になる。

　０８年９月中間期に新たに注記が付いたのは、自動車部品販売会社、イエローハット（東京）、不動産会社のアゼル（同）など１８社。業種別では不動産と建設が多い。

　「販売不振で在庫処分が進まず、資金繰りが厳しくなったり、金融機関から融資を受ける際に結んだ財務制限条項（融資条件）に引っかかったりして注記が付いた企業が目立つ」（増田氏）

　たとえば、アゼルは販売不振で多額の純損失が発生。「０７年３月に取引金融機関と結んだ財務制限条項に抵触した」（増田氏）。フージャースコーポレーション（東京）は不動産市況の悪化から販売が急減し、資金繰りが悪化したという。

　建設業で新たに注記が付いた塩見ホールディングス（東京）は、不動産市況の悪化から売り上げが激減。「資金調達が困難な状況」と注意を喚起している。

　「景気後退が深刻化する０９年３月期には、不動産、建設にかかわらずさまざまな企業に注記が付く可能性がある」と増田氏は指摘する。

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佐賀・みやき町が買収へ交渉　道仁会の施設改修
2008.12.23 01:05
このニュースのトピックス：地方自治

　指定暴力団道仁会（福岡県久留米市）が、佐賀県みやき町の元民間保養施設を改修している問題で、同町は２２日、土地と建物を所有する栃木県内の観光開発会社と買収交渉を始めたと発表した。

　施設は、佐賀県鳥栖市との境界付近にある。みやき町などによると、１７日に佐賀県警から「施設と土地の所有権が道仁会に移る可能性が極めて高い」との連絡があり、鳥栖市と協議。買収交渉に入ることを決め、翌日に佐賀県弁護士会の民事介入暴力対策特別委員会に交渉を依頼した。

　買収費用や取得後の施設の活用方法などについては鳥栖市が協力する。所有者との交渉がまとまれば２６日の臨時町議会に予算を計上する考え。

　県警などによると、施設は敷地が約２１００平方メートルあり、２階建ての住居棟など３棟から成る。

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地方のタクシー、不況で大打撃　新潟では老舗の大手２社倒産
2008.12.23 08:10

　規制緩和で営業台数が増加し続けてきたタクシー業界は景気低迷が続く地方で苦しい経営を強いられている。この秋、新潟では老舗２社が倒産する事態に陥った。タクシー業界を襲う不況の打開策として、行政はタクシーの再規制を検討し始め、タクシー会社も多様なサービスで生き残りを模索している。（新潟支局　高木克聡）

　全国ハイヤー・タクシー連合会によると、平成１９年３月末のタクシーの営業台数は約２７万３２００台。規制緩和前の平成１３年に比べ、約１万４０００台増加し、各地で競争が激化している。

　昭和１３年創業で、新潟県で最も古い「新潟タクシー」が１１月末、倒産した。負債総額は３億７０００万円に上る。従業員向けの説明会で初めて会社の窮状を知らされたベテラン運転手（６８）は「寝耳に水だった。会社の対応はあまりに不誠実。仲間の中には契約するガソリンスタンドで『倒産するみたいですね』と言われた者もいる」とこぼす。

　新潟県内では、１０月にも昭和１５年創業の老舗「新潟相互タクシー」の倒産があったばかり。いずれもタクシー台数の増加、運賃の自由化、燃料費高騰などが原因のようだ。

　帝国データバンク新潟支店の関口光夫支店長は「大手タクシーは法人顧客が中心。不景気による会社の経費節約で交通費が削減されている」と話す。

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アジア主要空港、貨物取扱量が急減　11月、中国の輸出失速響く

　アジア主要空港の貨物取扱量が11月に急減した。香港国際空港、シンガポールのチャンギ空港、韓国の仁川空港の貨物量の前年同月比減少率は、いずれも2ケタになった。金融危機が実体経済に波及して日米欧の需要が減速したのに加え、中国の輸出が同月にマイナスに転じたことも響いた。

　仁川空港は11月、貨物取扱量が20.4％減った。主力の半導体部品などの輸出が不振なうえに、通貨のウォン安を受けて高級品などの輸入も鈍った。香港国際空港は同18.7％減少、チャンギ空港は同14.2％減った。（香港＝吉田渉） (17:14)

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アルコア、アルミ精錬で世界一奪還　折半事業買収で

　【シカゴ＝毛利靖子】アルミ米最大手のアルコアは22日、ノルウェーの複合企業オークラとの間で、両社が折半出資するアルミ精錬会社エルケム・アルミニウムの株式をすべて取得することで合意したと発表した。アルコアのアルミ精錬能力は470万トンを超え、ロシアのＵＣルサールを抜いて再び世界一に返り咲く見込みだ。

　アルコアはオークラとアルミ加工事業でも合弁している。アルミ精錬事業を買収する見返りに、アルコアは同社が保有するアルミ加工会社の持ち分をオークラに譲渡する。今回の事業交換をテコにアルコアは精錬、オークラは加工に経営資源を集中する。2009年1―3月期に手続きを終える計画。

　資源価格の下落に伴う採算悪化に歯止めをかける狙いで、両社は企業買収などの機会をうかがっていた。だが米国発の金融危機で信用収縮が続いており多額の買収資金を調達するのは難しい。合弁事業を互いに整理・統合して経営資源や資金の利用効率を引き上げ、コストを削減する。(18:11)

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石狩ＬＮＧ基地、稼働１年前倒し検討　北ガス、12年末に

　北海道ガスは石狩湾新港地域で建設中の大型ＬＮＧ（液化天然ガス）基地の稼働時期を2012年末と、当初計画より1年前倒しする方向で検討に入った。世界的な景気減速で道内のエネルギー市場全体は停滞するものの、環境負荷の小さい天然ガスの拡販余地は大きいと判断。将来の需要拡大に備えて供給源を多様化し、安定供給に対応できる体制づくりを急ぐ。

　ＬＮＧ基地の総事業費は約400億円。石狩湾新港の土地約10万平方メートルに18万キロリットル用の貯蔵タンクを1基設けるほか、外航船の受け入れバースや出荷設備などを整備する。今年8月に着工し、年内に地盤改良工事を完了。来年春から貯蔵タンクを設置するための基礎工事に着手する。

　当初計画では13年12月に運転を始める予定だったが、12年12月に早める方向で検討を進める。景気は悪化しているが、環境意識の高まりもあり、工場や大規模商業施設で重油から二酸化炭素（ＣＯ2）排出量の少ない天然ガスに切り替える動きが今後も増えると判断した。

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愛知県、４年ぶりに交付団体転落へ　09年度　トヨタ業績悪化で

　トヨタの業績悪化などを受け、トヨタのおひざ元である愛知県は普通交付税の交付団体となる方向で総務省と最終調整に入った。県内には自動車関連企業が集積。法人2税の大幅な落ち込みなどで来年度の税収は今年度見込みから2割程度減少するという。愛知県は東京都と並ぶ不交付団体だったが、4年ぶりに交付団体に「転落」する。

　トヨタ関連の地域経済は一段と下振れする可能性が強まっている。内閣府は11月下旬、東海地方の景況判断を全国最大となる5段階分引き下げた。バークレイズ・キャピタル証券の森田京平氏は「いったん自動車の生産活動が縮小すると負の波及効果が生じやすい。09年半ばに向けて雇用環境も厳しくなる」とみている。(11:16)

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不況と戦う労組結成仕掛け人　「目標と明確な戦略持て」

2008年12月21日10時0分

　不況による解雇に立ち向かおうと、今年１年で２０の労働組合の結成に携わった人がいる。東京都港区の連合東京副事務局長の古山修さん（５９）だ。最近は、外資系企業に勤める外国人も相談に来る。古山さんは「組合が自分と家族を守る存在であることを知ってほしい」と訴える。

　古山さんが今年かかわった組合は、出版社、産業廃棄物業者、ゴルフ場経営、製薬、派遣、音楽関連、運送会社……。あらゆる業種にまたがっている。

　リーマン・ブラザーズの破綻（はたん）以降、外資系企業に勤める外国人の相談者が増えた。今年はフランス人、イギリス人、カナダ人、中国人などから約２０件の相談を受けた。

　昨年、リーマンの組合をつくった時、会社側の窓口役だった人事部の米国人女性は、のちに「夫が解雇されそうなので助けてほしい」と駆け込んできた。別の外資系企業の交渉相手だった日本人弁護士も、その後自分自身が事務所を解雇されそうになり、相談に来た。「いつ立場が変わるか分からない時代」と古山さんは感じている。

　連合東京で働き始めて１７年で約３００組合を結成。昨年から派遣や請負で働く人の組合や、金融系企業の組合が増えてきたという。「バブル期に弱まった組合活動が、ここに来て急速に活発化しているのを感じる」。相談者が来ると、少人数の仲間を集めるよう指示する。千人規模の会社でも４、５人の中心メンバーで十分だという。

　「ビラをまいて、人さえ集めればいい時代は終わった。職場環境の向上という積極的な目標を立て、戦略を明確にすることで、組合は頼られる存在になれる」

　組合の準備段階で重要なのは「恨みつらみや会社との対立という図式で組合をつくらないこと」。古山さん自身、かつて勤めたコンピューター関連会社で組合を立ち上げ、解雇された。「へたな組合運動をやって、ただ会社と対立するだけだった」という苦い経験がある。

　しかし、最近は、組合を立ち上げる間もなく解雇される派遣労働者が続出し、住むところを失う人も出ている。古山さんは「会社の寮に居座ってでも生き抜いてほしい。解雇に同意しなければ、会社側は立ち退きの仮処分をしない限り一方的に寮を追い出すことはできない。期限の日に素直に冬の町に出る必要はない」と呼びかける。

　先行きが見えない不況は、会社と従業員の関係はどうあるべきかという大きな問いを突きつけている。「いまは１００年に一度の好機。一人ひとりが働く権利、生きる権利について考えるとき」と古山さんは訴える。

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【迫る裁判員制度】弁護士の６８％「ノー」
2008.12.22 22:57
このニュースのトピックス：迫る裁判員制度

　来年５月に始まる裁判員制度で、弁護士２１人でつくる「裁判員制度アンケート調査実行有志の会」（事務局長・打田正俊弁護士）は２２日、制度について弁護士を対象に実施したアンケート結果を公表した。全国の弁護士への調査は初めて。回答率は１割にとどまったが、回答者の６８・３％が制度に反対だった。

　調査は、制度に反対の弁護士が大半を占める同会が、議論の参考にしてもらおうと今月上旬に実施。日本弁護士連合会会員の約９０％にあたる弁護士２万３０４１人に調査票を送達、うち２３０９人から回答を得た。

　反対の理由（複数回答）は「被告人の防御権侵害」が７６・９％でトップ。「弁護活動を十分行えない」（７１・６％）、「被告人に裁判員制度の拒否権がない」（６０・３％）などが続いた。一方、賛成理由は「国民の常識が反映される」が６５・４％と最多。そのほか「調書裁判の弊害が減少」（６２・９％）、「裁判官に問題がある」（６０・７％）など。

　同会は「回答率の低さには導入が決まっているというあきらめが影響しているのではないか」と推測。その上で「本音では反対が多く、このまま実施するのは問題」と主張している。

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韓国公然の秘密「残飯使い回し」罰則適用へ、業界は反発も
ソウル市内の韓国料理店で、食べ残しを客の前で廃棄してみせる従業員（前田泰広撮影）

　【ソウル＝前田泰広】残飯を使い回して他の客に出すことが半ば「公然の秘密」となっている韓国の飲食店に対し、韓国政府は店舗閉鎖を含む厳しい措置を取る方針を決めた。

　２００９年上半期までに食品衛生法施行令を改正する予定で、保健福祉家族省は「誤った食文化、悪習を改革する」と意気込んでいる。

　残飯使い回しの実態は韓国のテレビ各局で０８年８～９月に相次いで放映された。公共放送ＫＢＳの独自調査では、８０％の飲食店が使い回しをしていた。消費者の苦情が同省に寄せられるようになり、新措置導入の検討が始まったという。

　改正案では、初めて使い回しが発覚した店に営業停止１か月、２回目なら同３か月、３回目には店舗閉鎖と段階的に罰則を厳しくする。政府の動きに呼応して、ソウル市内の一部の飲食店では、食べ残しを客の前で専用容器に回収する取り組みも始まった。

　食べ残しが多い理由のひとつが、「パンチャン」と呼ばれるおかずが必要以上に食卓に並ぶことだ。パンチャンはキムチや魚の煮付けなど店によって違うが、客が食事を注文すると何種類かがサービスで提供される。同省によると、量が少ないと「ケチな店」と思われる風潮がある。このため、店がパンチャンを多めに出し、食べ残しを別の客にも使う悪循環が起きているという。

　ソウル市内でも高級飲食店などが集まる江南区は、パンチャンを注文制にして、客が食べたいものを必要な量だけ自分で選ぶ仕組みを導入するよう区内の店に呼びかけている。

　だが、呼びかけに応じたのは「区内５０００店舗のうち約１０店舗」（区担当者）。同省によると、今回の施行令改正に対しても飲食店の業界団体は、「客が減る」「処分が重すぎる」と反発しているという。

　同省は「残飯はゴミだと考え、残飯を減らす方法を考えてほしい」と、飲食業者に従来の発想を変えるよう要求。消費者に対しても「量が多ければ良いのではなく、きれいな食べ物が良いという認識を持ってほしい」と注文している。

　韓国ではソウル五輪開催決定後の１９８３年、「衛生的な食べ物」を実現しようとパンチャンを個別に注文する制度を導入した。しかし、パンチャンに料金を払うことに消費者が反発。罰則がなく、飲食店も制度を守らなかったため、制度が形骸(けいがい)化した経緯がある。今回も、飲食店の意識や消費者の関心を喚起できるかが、新措置の成否のカギを握りそうだ。
（2008年12月22日22時59分 読売新聞）