Cameron says no target for the pound

Cameron says no target for the pound

Reuters Lorraine Turner and Sumeet Desai

Britain should not target a rate for the pound, opposition leader David Cameron said on Monday as sterling hit a record low against the euro.

The pound fell to 1.1086 against the currency of its main trading partner and it could soon fetch less than one euro as the Bank of England is expected to keep on cutting interest rates aggressively to boost the economy.

The Conservative Party blames government handling of the economic crisis, which includes record levels of government borrowing, for the pound's huge losses.

But asked whether something should be done to stem the slide or if the pound's fall could even be beneficial for the economy as it was in the last recession in 1992, Cameron said the Conservatives had no exchange rate target.

"I don't believe in targeting a particular value for sterling," Cameron said following a speech at Thomson Reuters in which he called for more action to punish financial wrongdoing.

"The lesson I learnt was don't go back to the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) or join the single currency."

Cameron was an adviser in the then-Conservative government when sterling was forced out of the ERM in September 1992 despite the government jacking up interest rates to keep it in.

The ejection and the resulting fall in the value of the currency, however, paved the way for recovery after a long period of recession as British exporters won new markets.

Labour has said this is why currency flexibility is important despite some commentators again calling for Britain to join the European Monetary Union in response to the weakness of the exchange rate.

"We've never had a policy of targeting the pound. Our policy is to target inflation. And that I think has been the right one," Treasury minister Yvette Cooper said on Sunday.

"ITALIAN STYLE"

Cameron said that while he accepted public borrowing would rise in a downturn, Brown was spending too much and that risked putting the country into a deeper and longer recession.

He noted countries like Germany that were also planning huge fiscal boosts were doing so starting from a better budgetary position. Germany has criticised Brown's fiscal stimulus plans.

Cameron offered no new policies of his own on Monday to help Britain through the downturn, but stressed financial wrongdoing needed to be punished more vigorously -- as he said it was in the United States. He also reiterated proposals such as the creation of a loan guarantee scheme to kick-start lending.

His calls came as the Serious Fraud Office said it wanted bankers and other potential whistleblowers to come forward with evidence as the credit crisis uncovers fraud and creates the opportunity for a rise in scams.

"The problem in Britain today is that there just doesn't seem to be the will to see appropriate justice done at the highest level. Not from the Government. And not much will evident in the FSA (Financial Services Authority) either," Cameron said.

The FSA regulates the financial services sector and is funded by it, although it is accountable to the Treasury.

"Of course, the Serious Fraud Office has an important part to play too. But its effectiveness was called into question earlier this year in a review conducted by American prosecutor Jessica de Grazia. This has to change," Cameron said.

The Conservatives for most of this year looked a sure bet to win the next election, due by mid-2010, but have seen their poll lead over Labour eroded in the last few months as voters have seemingly warmed to Brown's handling of the economic crisis.

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Annus horribilis for the star investors

By John Authers

Published: December 14 2008 18:44 | Last updated: December 14 2008 18:44

Some great investors’ reputations have suffered a cruel reversion to the mean this year. Kirk Kerkorian, the nonagenarian investor whose big holdings included a range of casino companies and the stricken carmaker Ford, reportedly told friends that his mistake had been to live a year too long.

Both the stock and the credit markets showed they had even lost faith in Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway has had a bad year.

But in the US, perhaps the most attention has been reserved for Bill Miller of Legg Mason. At a press conference, he candidly described his performance for the year as “terrible,” “disastrous,” and “awful”.

On the face of it, Mr Miller seems to be the ultimate example of reversion to the mean. His Legg Mason Value Trust famously beat the S&P 500, its benchmark, for 15 consecutive years. That streak came to a close in 2006.

But this year, things have been so bad that almost all the compounded advantage over the S&P has now been negated. By the beginning of this month, Legg Mason Value’s performance since the beginning of 1995 was almost identical to that of the S&P 500 – it had made 147.9 per cent, compared to 149.6 per cent for the market.

A list of the fund’s bigger holdings is so painful it is almost funny. They are an almost perfect list of the worst financial casualties of this year’s crisis, including Countrywide Financial, Freddie Mac, American International Group and Citigroup. It also included a group of health insurers, badly bruised in recent months, and of high-tech and e-commerce names that have not made the hoped-for recovery, perhaps most famously Yahoo.

Up until last week, it was down 57.5 per cent for the year, far worse than the S&P (down 36.7 per cent) and also far worse than the average of the fund’s 1,383 peers, down 41.9 per cent. Its performance put it in the bottom percentile for large US equity mutual funds.

Judging by Bloomberg data, the last year has also ruined the fund’s longer term comparisons. Over five years, it is down 10.5 per cent, compared with 1.3 per cent for the index, and 1.66 per cent for its peers.

So Mr Miller was right. This has been a terrible year for him. Working out quite what went wrong, however, continues to reveal a lot about fund managers and how we assess them.

I addressed Mr Miller’s annus horribilis earlier this year, on July 14. His portfolio was performing terribly, and he was joking in a letter to investors that he was suffering from “deferred outperformance”.

July 14, we now know, was a critical turning point of the year. On Bastille Day, and the days immediately after it, the oil market peaked and started falling, the dollar hit rock bottom and started gaining, the inflation scare that had gripped the world for a month or two suddenly turned into a deflation scare and, in a shift that should have helped Mr Miller, value indices started to outperform growth.

Why did Mr Miller come out behind in this mayhem? Extreme adherents to the theory of market efficiency would hold that his protracted outperformance was the one extreme outlier that might always have happened by chance. He has now reverted to the mean.

More realistically, his big investments included many “value traps”. They were cheap, but with reason. Normally, a value investor’s critical skill is to be able to answer the question: “Will this go bust?”

In the extreme conditions of 2008, we can see with hindsight, the critical skill was rather to second-guess the intentions of government. After the rescue of Bear Stearns, it seemed a fair bet that the government would not allow an investment bank to fail, and so a number of troubled financials looked good value. Once Lehman Brothers failed, this logic collapsed. In these conditions, the fund’s holdings delivered drastic underperformance.

Finally, this may have been the ultimate bad year for dividends. According to Bloomberg, much of Mr Miller’s performance has come from reinvesting dividends. In the 14 years to the end of last month, according to Bloomberg data, the S&P had gained 95.1 per cent in price, while Legg Mason Value was almost the reverse, with 47.4 per cent from price appreciation. Their total returns were almost identical because Mr Miller had reinvested much more in the way of dividend income.

This is a normally conservative strategy that entails an overweight for financials. This year, with Citigroup rescued only on the condition that it slashed its dividend, and many other financials’ dividends under pressure, it went horribly wrong.

Finally, neither Mr Miller nor anyone else can beat the market for any long period of time by staying diversified. With a narrow portfolio of about 30 stocks, he stayed ahead for a long time. Such a strategy entails more risk, however, and will occasionally lead to ugly deviations from the market. That is what has just happened.

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Trichet warns on fiscal indiscipline

By Ralph Atkins and Lionel Barber in Frankfurt

Published: December 14 2008 23:31 | Last updated: December 15 2008 00:27

European policymakers must not tear up the rule books when launching emergency economic rescue packages, Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank president, has urged.

Fiscal indiscipline could threaten already fragile economic confidence and increase the nervousness of capital markets about governments’ funding needs, Mr Trichet warned in video and newspaper interviews with the Financial Times. But he argued that the European Union’s “stability and growth pact”, which sets rules on public deficits and debt, offered flexibility to countries with stronger finances. “We would destroy confidence if we blew up the stability and growth pact,” he said.

Adding to the global economic gloom, the governor of the Bank of Japan has warned that Japan’s economy is likely to contract in the year ending March 2010. In a separate interview, he revealed that the central bank was next month poised to reverse its forecast of a mild recovery.

The forecast from Masaaki Shirakawa that “the economy for fiscal 2009 may turn negative” – a downgrade from the bank’s current estimate of 0.6 per cent growth – underscores widespread pessimism about Japan’s prospects for a quick recovery.

In Frankfurt, Mr Trichet said the global financial market crisis posed a serious threat to industrialised economies. “We cannot afford in the future to put the concept of the market economy at risk as we did.”

Worries about the fiscal outlook for eurozone countries such as Greece and Italy have led to a dramatic widening in spreads between German and other government bonds. “The market is aware of the room for manoeuvre of the various countries,” Mr Trichet warned.

In the past two months, the ECB has cut its main interest rate by 175 basis points to 2.5 per cent. But other central banks have cut faster. Mr Trichet underlined the ECB’s cautious approach during the crisis when he noted that after the bursting of the dotcom bubble there had been “a degree of excessive pessimism”. Central banks came under pressure then to lower official borrowing costs – only for low interest rates to help fuel an asset bubble.

Mr Trichet’s comments on the need for fiscal discipline could offer some comfort to Berlin, which has come under international pressure to step up its fiscal expansion. For all industrialised countries, it was “dangerous” to face large domestic and external imbalances.

Policymakers also had a duty “to eliminate as completely as possible all the inbuilt elements in global finance that are amplifying the booms and the busts”. Mr Trichet hinted earlier this month that the central bank would this week consider possible changes to its financial market operations.

In his interview, Mr Trichet refused to comment on what steps might be unveiled. But he said that the ECB was not considering buying government debt.

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Norway set to dip into $332bn oil fund

By David Ibison in Oslo

Published: December 14 2008 22:17 | Last updated: December 14 2008 22:17

Norway is poised to dip more deeply into its $332bn (€248bn, £222bn) sovereign wealth fund to finance a new fiscal spending package.

The oil-rich Norwegians will use the fund, the world’s second largest after Abu Dhabi, to offset a rapid slowdown in economic growth next year.

Jens Stoltenberg, Norway’s leftwing prime minister, said in an interview the government will unveil spending measures in January on top of its previously announced expansionary budget for 2009. “We have held back and been restrictive in our use of oil revenues in strong times but we can start to spend more now that we see a downturn coming,” he said.

“We have already adopted a budget that will stimulate the economy by 0.7 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product] and we will announce a new package with added stimulus in January.

“It will be very direct. We will target sectors where we see the sharpest downturn, such as building.”

Norway’s central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday, with private sector analysts expecting a 100 basis point reduction to 3.75 per cent.

The prime minister said he would welcome “a stronger reduction in interest rates than had been predicted by Norges Bank”.

The extra fiscal spending, combined with the expected cut in interest rates, highlights the severity of the expected downturn in Norway as the effects of the global crisis undermine this hugely wealthy, open and well-managed petro-state.

Norway, which is not a member of the EU, has enjoyed its strongest period of economic expansion since the 1950s in the past four years with average annual growth of 5 per cent. But growth is now expected to slow to about 1.5 per cent.

Unemployment is expected to double to 4 per cent, equity prices have already fallen around 60 per cent from their peak and house prices are down about 7 per cent. Exports are expected to suffer as international markets slow, residential construction declines steeply and consumption slows as household spending drops.

But Oslo is one of the best placed governments in the world to spend its way out of the downturn. Norway uses oil revenues to finance its non-oil budget deficit and invests the rest overseas via its Global Pension Fund, or Oil Fund as it is commonly known.

The terms of the fund restrict the amount that the government can spend at home, insisting that “over time, the non-oil budget deficit does not exceed the expected real rate of return of the fund, estimated at 4 per cent”. But the government has flexibility to support growth, as the fund’s guidelines “allow fiscal policy to be used actively to counter fluctuations in economic activity”.

Mr Stoltenberg would not discuss the size of January’s spending. He said it would only be decided after new economic forecasts are available next year. The premier said the new funds would be used mainly for pump-priming. “We will invest more in public buildings, schools and infrastructure, we will give more to municipalities and we will improve labour market measures,” Mr Stoltenberg said.

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Iraqi journalist throws shoes at Bush

BySudarsan Raghavan, Dan Eggen and Reuters

Published: December 14 2008 18:47 | Last updated: December 15 2008 01:49

During a farewell visit to Baghdad on Sunday, President George W. Bush defended a war that has taken far more time, money and lives than anticipated, saying the conflict “has not been easy” but was necessary for US security, Iraqi stability and “world peace”.

But in a sign of lingering anger against the US military presence, an Iraqi journalist shouted: “This is a goodbye kiss from the Iraqi people, dog,” and hurled his shoes at the US president during a news conference with prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Throwing shoes at somebody is a supreme insult in the Middle East. One of the shoes sailed over the president’s head and slammed into the wall behind him and he had to duck to miss the other one. Mr Maliki tried to block the second shoe with his arm.

“It’s like going to a political rally and have people yell at you,” said Mr Bush. “I don’t know what the guy’s cause was. I didn’t feel the least bit threatened by it.”

Mr Bush had landed in Iraq under a veil of secrecy for his fourth and presumably final visit as president.

He was scheduled to meet US troops and Iraqi leaders about a security agreement that calls for the withdrawal of US forces by 2011.

After meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani at Salam Palace, Mr Bush hailed the security agreement as “a reminder of our friendship and as a way forward to help the Iraqi people realise the blessings of a free society”.

“The work hasn’t been easy, but it has been necessary for American security, Iraqi hope, and world peace,” Mr Bush said, adding: “I am just so grateful that I had a chance to come back to Iraq before my presidency ended.”

Mr Bush’s praise for the security agreement is particularly remarkable given that the US administration spent years dismissing proposals for withdrawal timelines as dangerous admissions of defeat. The agreement came after months of hard bargaining by Iraqi leaders, who insisted on a firm date for the removal of US troops.

The US president’s visit comes against a backdrop of declining violence across Iraq, which the Bush Administration attributes to a buildup of thousands of reinforcements last year.

But attacks have continued and many areas in Iraq remain unstable, particularly in the north. Last week, at least 57 Iraqis were killed in a suicide attack at a popular restaurant outside of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.

Mr Bush left Iraq and arrived in Afghanistan late on Sunday, a pool report from Air Force One said. The White House said Bush plans to meet with US troops and Afghan President Hamid Karzai and address US troops.

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01:02 GMT, Monday, 15 December 2008
Shoes thrown at Bush on Iraq trip

A surprise visit by US President George Bush to Iraq has been overshadowed by an incident in which two shoes were thrown at him during a news conference.

An Iraqi journalist was wrestled to the floor by security guards after he called Mr Bush "a dog" and threw his footwear, just missing the president.

The US president has now continued to Afghanistan to inspect troops there.

He arrived before dawn at Bagram air force base, and is due to hold talks with President Hamid Karzai.

Earlier in Baghdad, Mr Bush and Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki signed the new security agreement between their countries.

The pact calls for US troops to leave Iraq in 2011 - eight years after the 2003 invasion that has in part defined the Bush presidency.

"If you want the facts, it's a size 10 shoe that he threw"
US President George W Bush

Speaking just over five weeks before he hands over power to Barack Obama, Mr Bush also said the war in Iraq was not over and more work remained to be done.

His previously unannounced visit came a day after Defence Secretary Robert Gates told US troops the Iraq mission was in its "endgame".

'Size 10'

In the middle of the news conference with Mr Maliki, Iraqi television journalist Muntadar al-Zaidi stood up and shouted "this is a goodbye kiss from the Iraqi people, dog," before hurling a shoe at Mr Bush which narrowly missed him.

Showing the soles of shoes to someone is a sign of contempt in Arab culture.

Muntadar al-Zaidi throws a shoe at George Bush (14 December 2008)

With his second shoe, which the president also managed to dodge, Mr Zaidi said: "This is for the widows and orphans and all those killed in Iraq."

Mr Zaidi, a correspondent for Cairo-based al-Baghdadiya TV, was then wrestled to the ground by security personnel and hauled away.

"If you want the facts, it's a size 10 shoe that he threw," Mr Bush joked afterwards.

Al-Baghdadiya's bureau chief told the Associated Press that he had no idea what prompted Mr Zaidi to attack President Bush, although reports say he was once kidnapped by a militia and beaten up.

"I am trying to reach Muntadar since the incident, but in vain," said Fityan Mohammed. "His phone is switched off."

Correspondents said the attack was symbolic. Iraqis threw shoes and used them to beat Saddam Hussein's statue after his overthrow.

'American security'

Mr Bush's first stop upon arriving in Baghdad was the Iraqi presidential palace in the heavily-fortified Green Zone, where he held talks with President Jalal Talabani.

PREVIOUS BUSH VISITS TO IRAQ

* Nov 2003: Serves Thanksgiving dinner to troops in Baghdad
* June 2006: Meets new Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki
* Sept 2007: Visits Anbar province - former stronghold of Saddam Hussein


"The work hasn't been easy but it's been necessary for American security, Iraqi hope and world peace," Mr Bush said during his talks with Mr Talabani.

The Iraqi president called Mr Bush "a great friend for the Iraqi people, who helped us liberate our country".

The BBC's Humphrey Hawksley, in Baghdad, says the key issue at present is exactly how American troops will withdraw within the next three years and what sort of Iraq they will leave behind.

The US media has just published details of a US government report saying that post invasion reconstruction of Iraq was crippled by bureaucratic turf wars and an ignorance of the basic elements of Iraqi society.

The report is circulating among US officials in draft form, says the New York Times.

It reveals details of a reconstruction effort that cost more than $100bn (£67bn) and only succeeded in restoring what was destroyed in the invasion and the widespread looting that followed it, the newspaper said.

Troop promises

Mr Bush's visit, unannounced in advance and conducted under tight security, follows the approval last month of a security pact between Washington and Baghdad that calls for US troops to be withdrawn from Iraq by the end of 2011.

US troops are first to withdraw from Iraqi cities, including Baghdad, by June next year.

Defence Secretary Gates said on Saturday that "the process of the drawdown" had begun.

"We are, I believe, in terms of the American commitment, in the endgame here in Iraq," he told US troops at an airbase near Baghdad.

Mr Gates has been picked to stay on as defence secretary by President-elect Barack Obama.

US troops near Mosul

President Bush leaves the White House in less than six weeks. He said in a recent interview with ABC News that the biggest regret of his presidency was the false intelligence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.

Finding these was one of the key justifications for the invasion. None were ever found.

Mr Obama has promised to bring home US combat troops from Iraq in a little over a year from when he takes office in January.

More than 4,200 US troops and tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians and security personnel have been killed since the invasion in 2003.

There are currently about 149,000 US soldiers in Iraq, down from last year's peak of 170,000 after extra troops were poured in to deal with a worsening security situation.

As Mr Bush arrived in Baghdad, Gen David Petraeus, the head of the US Central Command, which includes Iraq, said attacks in the country had dropped from 180 a day in June 2007 to 10 a day now.

In a sign of modest security gains in Iraq, Mr Bush was welcomed with a formal arrival ceremony - a flourish that was not part of his previous three visits.

He arrived in the country on Air Force One, which landed at Baghdad International Airport in the afternoon, after a secretive Saturday night departure from Washington on an 11-hour flight.

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Arab list charts Prince Alwaleed’s losses

By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi

Published: December 14 2008 20:25 | Last updated: December 14 2008 20:25

Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, Citigroup’s biggest individual shareholder, has lost almost a fifth of his personal wealth in the past year due to the credit crunch, according to a local magazine.

Prince Alwaleed saw his net worth drop to $17.1bn from $21bn last year, according to Arabian Business, a Dubai-based magazine that said it had been given access to his private financial accounts.

The Saudi billionaire - who first invested in Citicorp in 1991 and recently said he would rebuild his stake in the embattled US bank to 5 per cent - built his name as an investor through the well-timed purchases of stakes in companies such as Apple and News Corp. However, like many financiers he has seen the value of his investments dwindle in the face of the global financial crisis.

Prince Alwaleed still topped Arabian Business’ 2008 list of the world’s richest Arabs some distance ahead of Nasser Al Kharafi, the patriarch of the influential Kharafi merchant family of Kuwait. Mr Kharafi’s net worth fell to $9.6bn according to the magazine.

The value of stocks, real estate and other assets held by the 50 richest Arabs – excluding the region’s royalty except Prince Alwaleed - dropped 12 per cent to $199.5bn according to the rich list. However, this may be understating the losses faced by the region’s investors.

Middle East stock markets have lost more than half their market capitalisation this year, and international markets – where many richer local merchant families are heavily invested – have done little better. The holdings of the region’s wealthy are often opaque and hard to measure.

Maan Al-Sanea, a former Saudi fighter pilot and owner of a 3.1 per cent stake in HSBC, came third with a net worth of $9.3bn. Three families also made it among the top ten, the Bin Ladens and Olayans in Saudi Arabia and the Kanoo family in Bahrain.

The Middle East’s richest private individuals control about $1,700bn of assets according to research by Capgemini and Merrill Lynch. Though it is forecast to rise to $3,400bn by 2012, losses are likely to have been severe this year. Many have invested in overseas property and companies, the valuations of which have been slashed by the credit crunch.

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Arab nations to meet for talk on Iran

By Roula Khalaf in Manama

Published: December 14 2008 18:30 | Last updated: December 14 2008 18:30

Arab states anxious about a change in US policy towards Iran are meeting world powers this week, in an attempt to establish a regular channel of communication over Gulf security that would survive into the next US administration.

According to a senior Gulf official, foreign ministers from several Arab states will meet the five permanent members of the UN Security Council in New York on Tuesday for a rare discussion about Iran.

The meeting comes amid rising concerns in the Gulf over President-elect Barack Obama’s expected adoption of a policy of unconditional talks with Iran.

Arab states have not had much of a policy towards Iran, beyond complaining that its influence is rising in the region and would become intolerable if it were to acquire nuclear weapons.

While many Arab states want to prevent a military conflict, they also worry about the impact of a US-Iran dialogue, fearing it would legitimise Tehran’s growing role in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

“We don’t want the US to talk to Iran and talk about our region without our involvement,” said a senior Gulf official. “So we want to start discussions with the international community now and want this to be established so it is much easier for the next administration to build on.”

Some Arab states – Oman for example – are staying away from the New York meeting and are keen not to be seen as promoting an anti-Iranian policy.

But Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed bin Mohamed al-Khalifa, Bahrain’s foreign minister, said the New York meeting was not a move against Iran. “It is to talk about our security,” he told the Financial Times.

Mindful of Arab anxieties, US officials, including Robert Gates, who is staying on as secretary of defence in the new US administration, have been seeking to reassure their Arab allies over their commitment to the region’s security.

At a security forum in Manama over the weekend, Mr Gates said he was bringing from the president-elect a message of “continuity and commitment to our friends in the region”.

Speaking at the conference organised by London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, he said the US was more concerned about Iranian “meddling” than Iranian “influence” and insisted that Mr Obama was “under no illusion about Iran’s behaviour”.

General David Petraeus, commander of Centcom, meanwhile, stressed on Sunday that the US was looking to expand military co-operation with Gulf states on several fronts, including missile defence, maritime security and the protection of critical infrastructure.

But both Mr Gates and Gen Petraeus made clear to Arab allies that there were moves they too could take to counter Iranian influence, most notably by stepping up their diplomatic engagement with Iraq.

However, Mr Gates’ call for the integration of Iraq into the Gulf Co-operation Council – the regional organisation that groups Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates – was quickly rebuffed by Gulf officials. They argued that the organisation was not “ready” yet to take on new members.

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The jaw-dropping Blagojevich scandal

Published: December 12 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 12 2008 02:00

The complaint filed by prosecutors against Rod Blagojevich, Democratic governor of Illinois, raises several questions, once one's astonishment subsides. If the details of the complaint are correct and the charges proved, a first puzzle will be to decide which is more remarkable, the settled culture of political corruption which they point to or the brazen stupidity of the accused.

The governor is charged with, among other things, trying to sell the Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama. Transcripts of his discussions with aides over what the seat might be worth in cash or favours - it is "[expletive] golden", he is said to have observed - point to fathomless contempt for voters and the law. That he should have said it knowing he was under investigation by Patrick Fitzgerald, the tenacious US attorney who came to prominence in the Valerie Plame case, beggars belief. Even Illinois is shocked, and that takes some doing in a state that has seen three of its last eight governors jailed.

Mr Obama and every Democratic senator in Washington have called on Mr Blagojevich to resign. In case he refuses, ways to circumvent his power to appoint the new senator are being examined. But what wider implications might this scandal have for the Obama administration?

On the face of it, the case does not embarrass the president-elect or his staff - rather the opposite, since Mr Blagojevich is shown as furious over the fact that he would be rewarded with mere appreciation for appointing the candidate once favoured by the Obama team. But this leaves some matters unresolved. What communication did Mr Obama's staff have with the governor's representatives? Did the president-elect know, or should he have known, what was going on? A certain amount of correcting earlier statements and issuing careful denials has been going on. This is the kind of distraction the new president did not want.

Voters across the country are aware, too, that Mr Obama was once a political ally of the governor. More than this, the polluted waters of Illinois politics are the environment in which the president-elect grew up. That he emerged from this slime untainted, his integrity unquestioned, is one of the more remarkable aspects of the tale.

Nonetheless it is the first scandal of his administration - which is not yet even in office. He needs to deal with it forthrightly, by being open about what passed between his representatives and the governor's. He also needs to keep the zealous Mr Fitzgerald on as US attorney, much as some of his old associates might prefer a change of personnel.

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UK groups are less gloomy than data suggest

By Peter Marsh

Published: December 14 2008 20:33 | Last updated: December 14 2008 20:33

The FT has launched an innovative “barometer” that will measure the pressures facing British manufacturing as it grapples with the first prolonged downturn for almost 20 years.

Some 53 manufacturing companies scattered through Britain and covering a range of sectors have agreed to provide regular updates on how they are withstanding the storms buffeting the global economy. This should provide a telling insight into changing conditions and sentiment across business.

FT Barometer

View profiles of the participating companies and take a closer look at the results in our interactive feature

The first tranche of data, launched on FT.com, paints a picture that is less unrelievedly gloomy than much of the headline data would suggest.

Many UK manufacturers see opportunities for increasing sales and employment in the coming months. Businesses in “niche” areas, where competition is relatively limited, are fairly upbeat. Others in fields hit particularly hard such as construction materials or car parts are far more worried.

Those companies doing well are often also in sectors – linked to hospitals or public transport, for instance – which benefit from public spending. Big exporters, that stand to gain from the recent large falls in sterling against other currencies, are also more optimistic.

Below:
Company case studies

The companies in the barometer are all privately owned, with just under half family concerns. They are able to comment on indicators like sales and orders, free of the constraints on quoted businesses.

A statistical analysis of the answers to questions covering sales, orders, investment intentions and employment produces an FT barometer reading of +0.8.

This indicates that the companies are on average positive – although only just so. The scale for the barometer is set at +10 for the most positive reading, and -10 for the most negative.

The companies are most positive about the strength of sales over the past six months and the number of inquiries about sales. These indicators score respectively +1.8 and +2.5, according to the FT assessment.

Looking ahead, on average they expect investment to fall in the coming six months, with employment increasing but by a very faint margin – registering +0.5 on the scale.

One of the most confident companies in the survey is Brandon Medical in Leeds. It makes lighting for hospital operating theatres, a field buoyed by government investment. “In the past two months we’ve been run off our feet,” said Graeme Hall, managing director of the 30-strong company, which is looking to take on up to four new employees by mid-2009.

Another anticipating good times was Colin Robertson, chief executive of Falkirk’s Alexander Dennis, Britain’s biggest bus maker, who said: “We’re feeling pretty positive. There’s a lot of investment going into public transport.” The company is seeking to add 150-200 people to its staff of 2,200 who work in several plants around the UK. It has recently signed an agreement to start making buses in a factory in California to meet US demand.

Several companies in “niche” fields reckon the specialist nature of their work will protect them. Peter Duncan, managing director of Cressall Resistors, a Leicester-based maker of high-tech equipment for regulating current, faces little in the way of global competition. He said: “If I was making something that a lot of other companies produce, then I would be more worried than I am.”

John Cawcutt, managing director of Norfolk-based Exheat, believes his company’s manufacture of special heating systems for hazardous environments such as oil and gas platforms, should provide “a cushion” against the worst effects of the downturn.

But tempering such positive comments are indications that some companies are already finding life very difficult. Tom Gardner, managing director of TTP Precision, a maker of machined parts near Aberystwyth, said several customers had cut back dramatically. “We’re in survival mode,” he said.

Many which currently report satisfactory conditions also admit to worries about the coming year. John Rainey, managing director of Denroy, a plastic parts manufacturer in Bangor, Northern Ireland, said: “While we’re enjoying a spell of good orders, next year is highly uncertain. Being realistic, we’d expect our core business to decline.”

...........

Company thinks twice but opts for expansion

Chris Thompson, the 52-year-old chairman of Gateshead-based Express Engineering, admits to a few worries about economic demand next year.

Nonetheless, Mr Thompson has given the go-ahead to a £3.2m expansion plan he hopes will increase his company’s sales from £13.8m in the year to last April to about £17m in 2009-10.

Along the way the company – which employs 125 – could add another 30-40 workers.

“Up until a couple of months ago I was 98 per cent confident we should be proceeding with this project. More recent events linked to the suddenness of the downturn in global economic conditions caused me to go back to the plan and think again. Even so we decided our business is in good enough shape to continue,” he says.

Mr Thompson has worked at the family-owned company since 1974 and took over running it in 1987. Using high-tech machine tools, it makes a range of parts mainly for the oil and gas industries.

“Nearly all our products are sold to UK based customers but even so most of them are parts of large international organisations that have led us to believe they have viable plans for the coming years and appear keen to keep ordering components from us,“ Mr Thompson says.

The company says finance for expansion has come from a mixture of sources including its own cash, bank loans and lease finance – as well as a £550,000 grant from the One North East development agency. “Getting finance has not been an issue.”

...........

Caparo faces more job cuts

Cuts in orders could cost up to another 500 jobs at Caparo, one of Britain’s largest private companies and a big supplier of car parts.

Angad Paul, chief executive, says 15-20 per cent of the group’s UK workforce could lose their jobs in the next six months on top of about 500 job reductions that have taken place since the summer in the wake of the downturn.

Caparo’s main activity is producing metal components for the automotive industry – a sector that has been hard hit by the steep downturn affecting the global economy in recent months.

Mr Paul describes business conditions as “challenging” and says next year could be very difficult for the company.

Caparo expects sales in 2008 of about £850m. It employs 7,000 people, with 2,500 in the UK. Most of the rest are in India and the US, where it has factories.

“We will be in a better position to see what the future holds in January,” Mr Paul says. “Right now, it seems as though many companies in industry are just putting everything on hold, running down stocks to the bare minimum in a frenetic effort to conserve cash.”

The family-owned Caparo was set up in 1968 by Swaraj (now Lord) Paul after he arrived in the UK from his native India. It has been run by 38-year-old Angad, one of Lord Paul’s three sons, since 2003.

However, Mr Paul says the year could also hold out a few opportunities to acquire struggling companies. “Inevitably, there will be good businesses that get into trouble during the coming months,” he says.

“This could provide us with the chance to buy some operations that offer good prospects for the future.”

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HSBC joins victims of Madoff’s alleged fraud

By Francesco Guerrera and Henny Sender in New York and Victor Mallet in Madrid

Published: December 14 2008 23:24 | Last updated: December 15 2008 00:20

HSBC has emerged as one the largest victims of Bernard Madoff’s alleged fraud with potential exposure of about $1bn to the investment manager’s collapsed venture, according to people close to the situation.

The potential losses to be suffered by the UK bank as a result of Mr Madoff’s alleged $50bn “pyramid scheme” are a sign that his network of clients and connections extended to some of the biggest and best-known names in global finance.

London probe

Financial investigators in London have begun examining the huge alleged fraud at Bernard Madoff’s US investment funds for evidence of any related suspected wrongdoing in Britain, writes Michael Peel in London.

The Serious Fraud Office is taking a preliminary look at a case seen as important because of its knock-on impact in London, people familiar with the matter said.

UK-based investors left with potentially big losses included Man Group, the world’s largest listed hedge fund, and Nicola Horlick’s Bramdean Alternatives investment funds.

The SFO’s work is at a preliminary stage and is driven by an awareness of the case’s potential importance rather than any British misconduct already uncovered, people familiar with the inquiry said.

Mr Madoff has a British presence as chairman of Madoff Securities International, which is based in London, although the company has already tried to distance itself from the US troubles.

Stephen Raven, chief executive of Madoff Securities International, said last week that the company’s business activities were not linked “in any way” to Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities, the US company at the centre of the fraud allegations.

France’s BNP Paribas on Sunday said its maximum potential loss on Mr Madoff’s funds was about €350m ($468m). Spain’s Banco Santander said it had a direct exposure of €17m while clients of its hedge funds had €2.33bn at risk in Mr Madoff’s firm. Royal Bank of Scotland, of the UK, said it had “some exposure”.

A number of Swiss private banks and high-profile investors such as Fred Wilpon, owner of the New York Mets baseball team, are also believed to have invested or provided loans to investors in Mr Madoff’s firm. People close to the situation said HSBC’s exposure stemmed from loans it provided to institutional clients, mainly hedge funds of funds, that wanted to invest with Mr Madoff. HSBC’s direct exposure is believed to be about $1bn in loans provided to clients who invested some $500m of their own funds in Mr Madoff’s venture.

Under the typical terms of these deals, if the US authorities recover any funds from Mr Madoff, HSBC will be paid first, with its clients suffering the first tranche of losses.

HSBC on Sunday said it was “carefully reviewing” its position but expected its final exposure to Mr Madoff’s firm not to be “material”.

Mr Madoff, founder of Bernard Madoff Investment Securities and a former chairman of the Nasdaq stock market, was released on a $10m bond last Thursday after his sons alerted the authorities to the collapse of his venture.

Last week, Mr Madoff told senior employees, including his sons, that his investment management firm had lost $50bn over a number of years, according to court documents. Prosecutors alleged that he said his operations were “just one big lie” and “basically a giant Ponzi scheme” – where investment managers pay old investors with money raised from new investors.

There is little information on where the $50bn Mr Madoff is alleged to have said he lost actually went.

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Nomura reveals $303m exposure to Madoff

TOKYO, Dec 15 – Nomura Holdings, Japan’s biggest brokerage, said on Monday it had a Y27.5bn ($303m) exposure related to Wall Street trader Bernard Madoff, but the impact on its capital would be limited.

Mr Madoff, a former chairman of the Nasdaq stock market, was arrested in New York on Thursday and charged with orchestrating a huge financial fraud through an investment-advisory arm of market-making firm Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC.

A spokesman at Nomura, which in September bought Lehman Brothers’ operations in Asia-Pacific, Europe and the Middle East, said it still does not know the exact earnings impact from the exposure.

Nomura’s finances have already been damaged by turmoil in financial markets. In October it posted a net loss of Y149.5bn for the April-September first half, and warned of potential losses ahead on its exposure to crisis-hit Iceland and stake in Fortress Investment Group.

Madoff’s advisory business had $17.1bn of assets under management but many investors may have had indirect exposure by investing through the hedge funds and other of the firm’s clients. He has said losses were about $50bn.

Nomura shares rose 1.5 per cent by midday on Monday but underperformed a 4.7 per cent gain in the benchmark Nikkei average

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デリバティブ活用地方債、自治体の金利負担増　金融混乱で裏目

　米国発の金融市場の混乱が、地方財政に波及している。急激な円高になると支払金利が跳ね上がるなど複雑な仕組みの地方債で、一部の地方自治体の財政負担が増える例が出てきたためだ。調達額全体に占める比率は大きくはないが、導入経緯やリスク管理のあり方など住民への情報開示を求められる可能性がある。

　岩手県が2007年に発行した仕組み債（50億円）は為替レートに連動して金利が半年ごとに変動する。年限は10年。円安局面では1.37％の低利で資金調達できるが、半年ごとの基準日に対ドルで1ドル＝98円50銭を超えて円高になると支払金利が5％に急上昇する。(16:00)

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京大が老化関連の遺伝子発見　２日おきの餌で線虫長生き

　京都大学の西田栄介教授らは、餌を毎日ではなく2日おきに与えてあえて飢餓状態をつくると、寿命が大幅に延びることを、線虫を使った実験で突き止めた。長生きする鍵を握るとみられる遺伝子も見つけた。実験結果が人間に当てはまるとは限らないが、人でも同様の遺伝子があるのが分かっているという。論文が英科学誌ネイチャー（電子版）に15日掲載された。

　食と寿命の関係については、線虫やマウスなどを使った実験で、カロリーを制限すると老化が遅れ、寿命が延びることが知られている。

　線虫が成虫になってから餌を2日おきに与えたところ、寿命が約50％延びた。餌を自由に食べさせると平均20日ほどで死ぬが、約30日間生きたという。(14:41)

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中国富裕層がマキあげ…植木のまち“ハゲ山”危機

１－２年で急増、３万本のうち８割輸出
記者が取材した日も大量の植木がコンテナに積み込まれていた（クリックで拡大）
記者が取材した日も大量の植木がコンテナに積み込まれていた（クリックで拡大）

　日本が誇る高級自然植木が中国の富裕層に大量に買い占められ、問題になっている。中国人ブローカーが頻繁に来日し、数千万円もする植木を根こそぎ現金で購入。連日、中国本土へ運び出しているというのだ。植木業者４００社が集中する千葉の“植木のまち”では、予期せぬバブルにわく一方、造園業者らは「このままでは街全体が“ハゲ山”になる」と不安を募らせている。

　「ここ１－２年で、このあたりだけでも３万本は生息していたとみられる『マキ』（＝槇の木）の８割近くが輸出されてしまった。何百万から何千万円もするマキが次々に現金で売れるもんだから、税務署に目をつけられた業者も多いですよ」

　こう語るのは、「日本一の植木のまち」千葉県匝瑳（そうさ）市＝旧八日市場市＝で、植木・造園業を営む大木忠さん。地元が誇る名木で、千葉県の県木でもある「マキ」を中国人が買い付け始めたのは６－７年前からで、北京五輪を挟んだここ１－２年、買い占めは急拡大したという。

　「中国人ブローカーは月に何度も訪れ、いまではどの業者の庭に、どの程度のマキが植えてあるかまで把握している。買い付けはすべて直接交渉で現金決済。まとまり次第、市内に１０カ所ある貯木場に移し、コンテナで横浜港などに輸送。船便で主に広州に運んでいきます」（大木さん）

　マキは中国でロウハンソンと呼ばれ、幸せを呼ぶ木として珍重されている。うねりのある造形が縁起物の「龍」を思わせることから、縁起をかつぐ中国人富裕層の引き合いが強く、その広大な庭や別荘に植えるため、金に糸目をつけずに買い付けていくという。

　とくに、日本よりも高湿度で温暖な広州では、それほど手間をかけなくても立派に成長するため人気になったようだ。九十九里浜から吹き付ける潮風の防風林として植えられていた木が、まさに“金のなる木”に変貌したわけだが、単純に喜んでばかりもいられない。

　隣接する多古町で造園業を営む石井佳孝さんは「このままでは早晩、街から木がなくなり、街全体がハゲ山状態になるかもしれない。来年か再来年には『植木のまち』ではなくなってしまう」と懸念する。

　「最近は同じマキでも、手入れする前段階の『アラギ』や五葉松、モミジまでもが中国人に買い占められている。マキは苗木から大木になるまで２００－３００年かかるし、アラギから製品にするのだって最低１０年は必要。それだけ売るべき木がなくなっている証拠ですよ」（石井さん）

　八日市場植木組合長の佐藤悟さんは「植木は商品として出荷するまでに、何十年という年月と年間数十万円の経費がかかり、売れるときに売らないと商売として成り立たない。数年間、供給に空白ができるのは間違いないが、国内需要に応えられなくなることはないだろう」と話す。ただ、その佐藤組合長でさえも「街全体が来年、どんな姿になっているかは予想もつかない」と言う。

ZAKZAK 2008/12/15

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三浦元社長の公訴を棄却　横浜地裁支部

　1981年の米ロサンゼルス銃撃事件で逮捕され、ロス移送後の10月に死亡した三浦和義元会社社長（61）＝日本では無罪確定＝が昨年、自宅近くのコンビニで万引したとして、窃盗罪に問われた公判について、横浜地裁小田原支部（山田和則裁判長）は15日、死亡を理由に公訴棄却を決定した。〔共同〕 (14:50)

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日銀短観：景況感、記録的な下落　大企業・製造業、米金融危機で２１ポイント
　◇石油ショック以来

　日銀が１５日発表した１２月の企業短期経済観測調査（短観）によると、企業の景況感を示す業況判断指数（ＤＩ）は大企業・製造業が前回の９月調査比２１ポイント下落のマイナス２４と大幅悪化した。下落幅は第１次石油危機直後の７４年８月調査（２６ポイント下落）に次ぎ、７５年２月調査と並ぶ過去２番目の大きさで３３年ぶりの記録的な落ち込みとなった。

　米国発の金融危機が日本経済を直撃して企業の景況感を急速に冷え込ませたことを鮮明にし、景気後退が一段と深刻化する恐れが出てきた。

　ＤＩの水準（マイナス２４）は、ＩＴバブル崩壊直後の０２年３月（マイナス３８）以来６年９カ月ぶりの低さだったが、事前の市場予測とほぼ一致した。悪化は０７年１２月から５期連続で、不良債権問題が深刻だった９７年９月～９８年１２月の６期連続以来の長さ。

　９月調査は米リーマン・ブラザーズが破綻（はたん）した９月１５日以前の回答が多かったため、金融危機の影響を完全に反映した短観は初めて。

　大企業・製造業は３３年ぶりに全業種が前回調査から悪化した。業種別では自動車が９月比４６ポイント下落のマイナス４１と過去最大の悪化幅で９９年６月以来９年半ぶりの低水準。電機も２８ポイント下落のマイナス３７と０２年３月以来６年９カ月ぶりの低水準となった。海外経済の悪化や円高が輸出産業に打撃を与えた。

　また、大企業・製造業で雇用が「過剰」と回答した企業の割合から「不足」と回答した割合を引いた雇用判断ＤＩはプラス８と「過剰」が「不足」を上回り、０４年６月以来４年半ぶりの高水準となった。企業が業績悪化で過剰人員を抱え、雇用削減に乗り出していることを示した。

　大企業・非製造業の業況判断指数は９月比１０ポイント下落のマイナス９で、０３年１２月以来、５年ぶりにマイナスに転落した。倒産が相次ぐ不動産のほか、個人消費の落ち込みで小売りや飲食店でも悪化が目立った。中小企業は製造業が１２ポイント下落のマイナス２９、非製造業が５ポイント下落のマイナス２９とさらに厳しい水準。

　大企業・全産業の０８年度設備投資計画は０・２％減と、９月（１・７％）から大幅に下方修正された。【坂井隆之】

＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝

　■ことば
　◇日銀短観

　日銀が企業の景況感などを探るため、四半期（３、６、９、１２月）ごとに実施するアンケート。対象企業が幅広く、調査の翌月には結果が公表されるため、足元の景気動向を示す重要な指標とされる。業況判断指数（ＤＩ）は、景気が「良い」と答えた企業の割合から「悪い」と答えた企業の割合を引いた値。数字が低いほど景況感が悪い。１２月調査は１１月１０日～１２月１２日に１万４０９社に実施、回答率は９９・０％だった。

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日銀短観：景気後退「危険水域」に　雇用・設備過剰感、リストラ相次ぐ

　１２月の日銀短観は大企業・製造業の業況判断指数の下落幅が過去２番目の大きさとなり、金融危機が景況感の歴史的な悪化を招いた。７０年代の第１次石油危機に匹敵するパニックが日本経済を襲った格好で、景気後退は予想以上の深い谷に落ち込みかねない。【斉藤望】

　９月短観時点で大企業・製造業の業況判断指数の３カ月先の予測はマイナス４。９月短観比で１ポイントの小幅悪化と見込んでいたが、実際はマイナス２４と大幅に悪化した。金融危機が予想をはるかに上回る速度と震度で日本経済を揺さぶったことを示した。

　金融危機の衝撃を鮮明にしたのが１１月の新車販売台数だった。前年同月比２７％減と３４年ぶりの減少率を記録し、危機の震源地である米国の１１月新車販売台数の減少率（３６％）に迫った。

　金融市場の混乱が米国の消費を冷やし、外国為替市場では急速な円高が進んだ。自動車や電機など外需依存の日本の輸出業界を直撃し、減産や雇用削減が拡大した。先行き不安が消費者に財布のひもを締めさせ、猛烈な勢いで経済活動を収縮させた。

　大企業は９０年代のバブル崩壊後の雇用や設備の過剰をリストラで解消しており、今回の景気後退は当初、浅いとの見方が強かった。だが、１２月短観では雇用や設備の過剰感が悪化。再びリストラの動きが相次ぎ、景気後退を深刻化させる「危険水域」に入りつつある。

　１２月短観の大企業・製造業の業況判断指数の３カ月先の予測はマイナス３６とさらに落ち込む見通し。しかも、先週末には１３年ぶりに１ドル＝９０円を突破する円高となり、足元の景況感は一段と悪化している可能性もある。

　日銀は１８、１９日に開く金融政策決定会合で追加対策を迫られかねない。

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Japan's automakers at risk if Detroit fails

Friday, December 12 11:38 pm
Reuters Soyoung Kim - Analysis

If a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, Toyota Motor and Honda Motor have a problem in the U.S. market directly tied to Detroit's financial crisis.

General Motors and Chrysler have been pushed to the brink of failure by recent events but the interlocking chain of U.S. parts suppliers means the collateral damage from their collapse will hit Japan's leading automakers hard.

Analysts warn that bankruptcy for either GM or Chrysler could cause a cascade of failures at their suppliers.

That would increase the pressure on better-capitalized Japanese automakers to extend financial aid to keep their production lines running in states from Texas to Ohio, a costly move at a time when auto sales remain down and cash is scarce.

While no automaker would be spared in the shakeout, the deep U.S. presence of Toyota, Honda and Nissan Motor make them particularly vulnerable to any supply disruptions, analysts said.

Japanese automakers now represent 40 percent of U.S. auto sales. They also build more than 60 percent of their vehicles sold to U.S. consumers in North America.

In addition, the lean inventory management pioneered by Toyota means that a shortage of a key part could quickly shut an assembly line, analysts have said.

Fifty-eight percent of General Motors suppliers and 65 percent of Ford Motor suppliers also supply Asian manufacturers. By comparison, 37 percent of GM's suppliers have ties to European automakers.

"There isn't a supplier out there that does not touch GM," said Erich Merkle, an analyst at Crowe Horwath. Merkle said GM buys $31 billion a year from suppliers, "so when you remove GM, the supply base will file for bankruptcy."

Merkle and other analysts said a bankruptcy by an automaker would force many suppliers into liquidation because of the near impossibility of finding financing needed to restructure.

"If suppliers liquidate, you won't have components any more. It's not just GM, Ford, and Chrysler. It's Toyota, it's Honda and it's Nissan," Merkle said.

The Bush administration is considering emergency aid for the U.S. automakers after a proposed $14-billion bailout collapsed in the face of opposition from Senate Republicans.

"Honda and Toyota themselves have started to say if these American automakers start to fail, and fail quickly, it will take out the supply base they all depend on," said David Kudla, chief executive of Mainstay Capital Management.

Shares of Toyota, No. 2 in U.S. sales after GM, tumbled 10 percent in Tokyo after the bailout talks failed. Honda and Nissan dropped 12.5 percent and 11.5 percent, respectively.

"The U.S. auto market is shrinking rapidly," Toyota said in a statement. "A major bankruptcy would exacerbate an already difficult environment for Toyota and the industry. We hope to avoid this situation."

Honda and Nissan had no comment.

THE DETROIT-NAGOYA NEXUS

Japan's automakers account for 13 out of the total 18 vehicle assembly plants in the United States being operated or built by non-U.S. manufacturers.

Hyundai Motor and Mercedes Benz both have plants in Alabama. BMW has one in South Carolina.

Kia Motors and Volkswagen would be shielded because they import all the vehicles they sell in the United States. Kia is due to open a plant in Georgia in 2009, while Volkswagen is building one in Tennessee.

Foreign-owned plants currently represent about 45 percent of production in North America, nearly double the level at the start of the decade, according to auto consulting firm CSM Worldwide.

"Many suppliers can't afford another major hit to their production and cash flow," CSM President Craig Cather said.

Major auto parts suppliers in North America include Johnson Controls, Magna International, TRW and Lear, but analysts say the most intense pressure would be on the thousands of second-tier suppliers which supply components to the major companies.

In a reminder of the pressure on the sector, Michigan-based supplier Precision Parts International, which makes metal components, filed for bankruptcy on Friday.

"The current depressed conditions in the domestic auto industry, along with the continued tightening of credit markets created insurmountable hurdles," Precision Chief Executive Joe Lefave said.

Japan's automakers already have been hit by the industry-wide collapse in U.S. sales, a downturn that has gained momentum since October.

Honda on Friday announced cuts of an additional 119,000 units from planned production in North America through March, after its U.S. sales dropped 32 percent in November.

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宮城野親方と愛人の音声記録を提出

　０６年名古屋場所で白鵬が朝青龍と八百長相撲をし、その首謀者が北の湖前理事長（元横綱北の湖）であったと報じた週刊現代の記事について、日本相撲協会などが発行元の講談社などを名誉棄損で訴えている民事裁判の弁論準備手続が９日、東京地裁で行われた。

　講談社側が白鵬の師匠・宮城野親方（元十両金親）と、愛人とされる坂本直子氏との会話の音声記録を証拠として提出。白鵬と朝青龍の八百長について言及した内容で、協会側弁護士は「本人は会話をしたことは認めているが、八百長を認める発言とは認識していない。頭がもうろうとしていたなどと言っている」と説明した。

　同弁護士は「会話の内容は本訴と直接関係ない」と強気だが、現役協会員が八百長を認めたとなれば、判決とは別に物議を醸す可能性がある。

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宮城野方親が語ったテープ提出　八百長裁判で週刊現代側

2008年12月10日 紙面から

　北の湖前理事長（元横綱北の湖）が週刊現代（講談社）を相手に、朝青龍と白鵬の八百長相撲の段取りを元弟子・宮城野親方（元十両金親）に命じたとする報道を訴えている裁判の弁論準備が９日、東京地裁であった。週刊現代側は証拠として、宮城野親方が白鵬の八百長を語ったとするテープを提出した。

　週刊現代によると、宮城野親方が元愛人に語ったものを９時間にわたって録音。０６年名古屋場所で綱獲りに挑戦した白鵬のために、宮城野親方が朝青龍ら４力士に９００万円支払って依頼した－と報じられた。

　日本相撲協会・吉川精一顧問弁護士によると、宮城野親方はその女性とホテルで会ったこと、テープが自分の声であることは認めている。だが、内容については「親方はそれらしき発言を一切していないとは言っていないが、本当のところは覚えてないと言っている。頭がもうろうとしていて、記憶にないと言っている」という。年内にも事実確認を行う予定。

　この訴訟は▽北の湖前理事長が八百長の段取りを命じた▽北の湖前理事長が部屋力士だった金親を結婚させて宮城野親方になった－と掲載されていることに対して起こった訴訟。北の湖前理事長の出廷が決まっており、宮城野親方も証人申請が出されている。

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八百長告白テープ「ある」宮城野親方認めた

　日本相撲協会と北の湖前理事長が、昨年５月に「八百長の黒幕」と記事にした週刊現代を発行する講談社などを提訴した裁判の弁論準備手続きが９日、東京地裁で行われた。次回は来年１月３０日に行われる。

　記事は、０６年名古屋場所の朝青龍対白鵬の一番は当時の北の湖理事長が圧力をかけ、八百長相撲で白鵬が勝ったという内容。中でも白鵬の師匠・宮城野親方（元十両・金親）が、愛人とされる女性に八百長工作を告白した録音の内容が掲載されていた。記事になった当初、宮城野親方は「身に覚えがない」とし録音テープの存在を否定していた。

　ところが、この日、協会側の吉川精一弁護士は「宮城野親方はテープの存在を認めています。ただ、内容については頭がもうろうとして覚えていないと言っているので後日、改めて事情聴取します」と存在を認めた。講談社側は裁判所に録音テープを証拠として提出しており、今後採用されて法廷で八百長告白が同親方の発言と認められれば、相撲協会にとって大きな打撃となる。裁判の展開次第では、親方の処分など思わぬ方向に問題が波及する可能性もある。

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朝青龍ら1000人！公開で「相撲研修会」

　日本相撲協会が、２６日に東京・両国国技館で開催する「相撲研修会」を報道陣に公開する方針であることが、１０日、分かった。研修会開催は武蔵川理事長（元横綱三重ノ海）の９月の就任時の公約で、力士、親方をはじめ約１０００人の全協会員に参加を義務付ける。全員参加での開催は９８年以来、約１０年ぶりで、非公開がほとんどの協会の会合を公開するのは極めて異例だ。

　武蔵川理事長は「今年は（不祥事が）いろいろあったが、２度と起こさないためのもの」と説明。９８年は立ち合いの「待った」をなくすなど土俵上の改革がポイントだった。今回は土俵外の生活の見直しも重視。ビデオを使い、服装や日常生活など力士にふさわしい行動を徹底させる。けいこ場での暴行や大麻問題など、前代未聞の事件を生んだ規律の緩みを締め直す反省会になる。

　担当する伊勢ノ海再発防止委員会委員長（元関脇藤ノ川）は「以前から決まっているものを再確認するだけ。だが、悪いと分かっていながらするなど、常識だったことができていない」と言う。報道陣への公開は問題点をさらけ出す形になり、また、常識の徹底には「何をいまさら」という批判が出る可能性もある。それでも武蔵川理事長は「協会が真剣に取り組んでいるということ。隠す必要もない」と話した。

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八百長裁判の審理終了　３月２６日に判決

　日本相撲協会と横綱・朝青龍らが八百長告発記事を掲載した週刊現代の発行元の講談社などに損害賠償などを求めた訴訟の口頭弁論が１１日、東京地裁で開かれ、すべての審理が終了した。来年の春場所１２日目にあたる３月２６日に判決が言い渡される。争点となっている０６年九州場所と０７年初場所における朝青龍の八百長疑惑に関し、原告側の吉川精一弁護士は被告側の立証が不足していると主張。「勝訴判決が最大の眼目。協会は勝訴を確信している」と自信満々。ただ、勝訴しても、裁判所が八百長の存在を認める可能性もあり、被告側の弁護士は「その場合は痛み分け」と話した。

[ 2008年12月12日 ]

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八百長疑惑記事和解なし、判決は来年３月

　週刊現代の八百長疑惑記事をめぐり、日本相撲協会と朝青龍ら力士が、発行元の講談社などに名誉棄損で約６億５０００万円の損害賠償と謝罪広告を求めた訴訟が１１日、東京地方裁判所で結審した。判決は来年３月２６日。和解勧告はなく、双方が最終準備書面を提出。原告側で同協会の代理人、吉川精一弁護士は「被告側は朝青龍らが八百長をしたという立証をできていない。勝訴を確信している」と話した。同訴訟は０６年九州場所で朝青龍らが八百長をしたとする同誌の報道について争っている。被告側代理人の的場弁護士は「仮に敗訴でも、大相撲に八百長があることを認めるような文言があれば、痛み分けという見方も」などと話した。

　［2008年12月12日9時53分　紙面から］

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19:09 GMT, Friday, 12 December 2008
Lebanon seeks fresh maid influx
Filipino maids in Beirut

Lebanon has urged the Philippines to lift a travel ban to the country to help relieve a shortage of maids.

The Lebanese consul in Manila said normality had returned since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah when the Philippine travel ban was imposed.

Tens of thousands of Philippine domestic helpers continue to work in Lebanon in defiance of the ban.

The consul, Joseph Assad, insisted the country was safe and labour market could absorb still more workers.

Nearly 10% of the Philippines' population works abroad - a vital source of remittances for the Philippine economy.

Human rights campaigners say the danger to maids in Lebanon is not so much political conflict but from abuse.

Human Rights Watch says most of Lebanon's domestic workers, who originate primarily from Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Ethiopia, remain unprotected by labour laws and are subject to exploitation and frequent abuse by employers and agencies.

At least 95 foreign maids are reported to have died in Lebanon since January 2007.

Forty deaths were classified by embassies as suicides and 24 were caused by falls from high buildings.