Sterling – the currency whipping boy
By Peter Garnham
Published: October 22 2008 18:18 | Last updated: October 22 2008 18:18
The pound’s sharp slide against the dollar so far this week has only been outdone by emerging market currencies, where fears over a global slowdown have sparked panic selling.
Indeed, among major currencies, sterling is the worst performer against the dollar, having fallen 6.5 per cent to $1.6371 since trading started on Monday.
This represents a five-year low for the pound against the dollar and its worst performance since its ejection from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.
So far this week, sterling has also lost 3.6 per cent against a basket of currencies that represents its main trading partners.
All currencies, with the exception of the yen, have suffered against the dollar as investor focus has switched from the problems in the financial system to worries over the prospect of a sharp slowdown in the global economy.
Those fears have heightened risk aversion and driven a wave of deleveraging. This has prompted investors to liquidate positions in assets that offer little prospect of favourable returns in a global recession. Many of these positions have been funded using the low-yielding dollar and yen.
Among major currencies, the pound has suffered the most, helped on its way down by comments from Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England. On Tuesday night, Mr King gave the clearest indication yet that the Bank was set to cut interest rates at its next meeting, saying that the country was now entering a recession. He also emphasised that if other forms of external finance do not replace overseas investors, this would imply an adjustment in the trade deficit and exchange rate depreciation will “need to be larger and faster”.
Kamal Sharma at JPMorgan says the Bank appears to be actively talking the pound down. Under such circumstances, and against the backdrop of recession and falling interest rates, there is little encouragement for sterling to stabilise in the months ahead as it had done briefly following recent actions by the government to support the banking system.
“The path of least resistance remains to sell the pound over the coming months, particularly with a central bank content to see further depreciation.”
While fundamental factors have undermined the pound – Mr King was very clear regarding the dire near-term outlook for the UK economy and the need for further monetary easing – rising risk aversion and deleveraging have also brought sterling lower.
Indeed, analysts remark that Mr King’s most significant comment from a currency perspective was not, in fact, the acknowledgement of recession or subtle hints of monetary easing but his reference to the lack of external finance and the repercussions of this for the pound.
This, says Derek Halpenny at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, has echoes of the situation in emerging markets, where fears over the ability of countries to access international financial markets has seen the currencies of countries with large current account deficits punished severely.
The Hungarian forint has plummeted 13 per cent against the dollar since the start of last week, while the South African rand has dropped 20.5 per cent and the Turkish lira 17.9 per cent.
Mr Halpenny says it is clear that while the steps taken across the world to shore up the capital bases of major financial institutions and to provide liquidity may well prove successful, those steps will not stem the appetite for further deleveraging.
“Risk aversion and deleveraging have also undermined the pound against the dollar,” says Mr Halpenny. “Further pound depreciation against the dollar looks inevitable.”
Divyang Shah at Commonwealth Bank says while both the US and UK have current account and fiscal deficits, the dollar is stronger and sterling is relatively weaker largely because safe haven flows are helping to fund the US deficits.
“The search for liquidity and market depth has favoured the dollar,” he says.
Mr Shah expects the dollar to climb to $1.60 against the pound by the end of the year, but the risk is that dollar strength is much “larger and faster”.
“We have been highlighting the risk for a move to $1.50 but there is a need to look beyond this level,” he says. “A break of $1.40 would open room for more significant weakness in the pound.”
However, Neil Mellor at the Bank of New York Mellon believes worries over the funding of the UK current account deficit are overdone.
He says that while the foreign exchange market always latches on to any bad news to use as an additional weapon to punish a struggling currency, the position in the UK, where the current account deficit stands at 3 per cent of gross domestic product, is nowhere near that of the emerging market economies whose currencies are currently coming under pressure.
“The UK certainly does not come into that category,” says Mr Mellor.
“There is little reason to suppose that it will have problems servicing its deficit.” He says that the UK attracts a huge amount of capital, rather similar to conditions in the US, which makes the accumulation of a current account deficit almost inevitable.
“The UK’s deficit is just not at levels that warrant concern,” says Mr Mellor. “There are plenty of other reasons to sell the pound.”
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The Short View: Bets gone wrong
By John Authers
Published: October 22 2008 18:49 | Last updated: October 22 2008 18:49
Foreign exchange is a zero-sum game. For any pair of currencies, gains by one will be at the expense of the other. Foreign exchange is arguably therefore not even an asset class. Historically, forex crises happen only when government efforts to maintain a fixed exchange rate break down.
But the sudden collapse of high-yielding currencies owes little to fixed pegs, and bears many hallmarks of a classic equity crash. Sterling is closing in on $1.60; the euro has dropped below $1.30; the Brazilian real has lost 40 per cent against the yen in weeks; the Turkish lira has lost more than that against the dollar.
A series of bets have gone wrong in quick succession. One was on rising commodity prices. These attracted cash to commodity-exporting countries but materials prices have been tumbling for months now.
Another bet was on low volatility – obviously now a thing of the past. With volatility low, it made sense to practice the “carry trade” – borrowing in low-yielding currencies such as the yen and the dollar and parking the funds in currencies with a better interest rate. However, increased volatility makes leveraged trades like this highly dangerous, and so the carry trade has suffered.
Finally, there was a bet on the health of emerging economies. Many had got their fiscal house in order since the crises of the 1990s, building reserves and borrowing in their own currencies. But not all were equally healthy. Currency falls became self-reinforcing, as depreciation increased their debt burden. That led to Wednesday’s emergency rate rise in Hungary, and intensified concern that Argentina will default again.
As after equity crashes, hindsight shows clearly there was a bubble-like overvaluation, in this case of almost every currency compared with the dollar and the yen. Once enough forces intersected, the crash was sudden but decisive.
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The Short View
By John Authers
Published: October 22 2008 03:00 | Last updated: October 22 2008 03:00
It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good. As the world tries to recover from a crisis that was "made in the USA", Americans can take comfort that the dollar, its swoon over, is at its highest level in 18 months against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. The pound, worth more than $2.10 less than a year ago, traded yesterday at less than $1.70.
Some of the rise can be imputed to arguably "good news" for the US. Traders liked Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's call for a renewed financial stimulus plan, in part because it implied that fewer interest rate cuts would be needed. But for the most part, this dollar rally looks unhealthy. The buck has not rallied against the Japanese yen, a currency that is strong when uncertainty is high. Uncertainty shows up in renewed falls for commodities yesterday (which help the dollar), in sell-offs in commodity-linked emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian Real and in falls for eastern European currencies, now an area of great concern.
The most powerful propellant for the dollar is the rush away from risk as hedge funds take profits in whatever trades show a profit (many not denominated in dollars) and bring the money home to repay lenders and investors who are redeeming.
This rush from risk further reduces wealth for US investors, who had recently entered into international investing in a big way. For them, the weak dollar had acted as a cushion against the crisis. Now, currency effects intensify losses. The FTSE 100, for example, is down 34 per cent in sterling terms since the pound peaked - and 47 per cent in dollar terms.
Further, the best stimulus for the US economy earlier this year was the weak dollar itself. Exports surged while the rest of the economy weakened. But a stronger dollar might at least come as some relief for exporters in Europe, particularly the UK. It's an ill wind.
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Asian growth to stay 'robust', says ADB chief
By Raphael Minder in Hong Kong
Published: October 23 2008 03:00 | Last updated: October 23 2008 03:00
Asia's economies remain on course for "robust growth" next year in spite of the financial crisis and looming recession in Europe and the US, according to Haruhiko Kuroda, president of the Asian Development Bank.
Mr Kuroda said in an interview that "we can still expect around 7 per cent growth next year" across Asia excluding Japan. "That means Asia is still going to achieve relatively robust growth," he said.
The lender last month cut its 2009 growth forecast for the region from 7.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent. Since then, however, the global financial crisis has spread to Asia, forcing South Korea to announce an -emergency $130bn (€100bn, £80bn) plan to bolster its banking sector.
China has also announced steps to boost its property market and help exporters following an unexpectedly severe slowdown in the third quarter. BHP Billiton said yesterday that demand from China had "softened" in the three months ending in -September.
In another sign of slowing economic activity, Singapore-based Neptune Orient Lines is cutting capacity on key trading routes, including those to Europe.
Mr Kuroda said Asian banks remained "well capitalised", with a ratio of non-performing loans to assets of less than 5 per cet. He praised the authorities in the most open financial markets - South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia - for confidence-boosting pledges, including guarantees for bank deposits.
"They have taken appropriate measures very proactively and I am sure that those are having a positive impact," he said.
In spite of Mr Kuroda's confidence, Asian stock markets plunged yesterday, with falls of more than 5 per cent in Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore and Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng index closed at a three-year low. Analysts said concerns were shifting from banks to manufacturing -sectors such as the semiconductor industry, which has shocked investors this week with several profit warnings.
Mr Kuroda urged Asian governments to press ahead with the development of an Asian bond market, which could help the region withstand future financial market upheavals.
"There are global bond issues, so why cannot regional bond issues flourish in Asia?" he asked.
David McCormick, the US Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, said he had discussed the development of a Chinese bond market with Beijing officials.
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Iran feels pinch of oil price fall
By Anna Fifield in Beirut
Published: October 22 2008 18:50 | Last updated: October 22 2008 18:50
When Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad was elected president of Iran three years ago, he pledged to bring the oil money to every Iranian’s dinner table. While oil was trading close to $150 a barrel, the populist leader could lay on quite a feast.
Now, with prices at about $70 and falling, Mr Ahmadi-Nejad could find he has less cash to spread around.
This new reality means Iran, one of Opec’s biggest price hawks, will be leading the calls to slash production when the oil cartel meets in Vienna on Friday.
“Opec should cut its current output,” Gholam-Hossein Nozari, Iran’s oil minister, said this week. “We think . . . oil prices are very low and $150 should not be an unattainable target.”
The timing could hardly be worse for the Iranian president, who is expected to seek a second term in next June’s election.
“The one thing that will sabotage [Mr] Ahmadi-Nejad’s chances of re-election is the economy,” said Ali Ansari, an Iran specialist at the University of St Andrews in Scotland. “It’s his Achilles heel that he has not delivered during this oil boom.”
Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, earned about $54bn (€42bn, £33.2bn) from oil exports in the first half of this year, according to government estimates, after reaping $70bn last year.
Mr Ahmadi-Nejad has been criticised in parliament for becoming “addicted” to high oil prices, which many analysts say have enabled him to mask his mismanagement of the economy and pump in extra cash.
The government budget assumes oil prices of $55 a barrel, so any surplus is channelled into an oil stabilisation fund, which is supposed to provide a cushion in times of low prices.
But this year alone Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s government has authorised the withdrawal of about $17bn from the stabilisation fund to finance his policies, although some analysts think it could be even more. The central bank does not disclose the fund’s balance.
Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s crowd-pleasing policies – such as loans for the poor and financing short-term employment projects – have helped to retain significant support among the working classes.
Although oil revenues will be lower and the budget deficit could hit $50bn, he recently promised to pay as much as 700,000 rials (about $71) a month to most Iranians from next year, part of his plan to eliminate $100bn of indirect subsidies.
Some analysts say Mr Ahmadi-Nejad can weather the downturn in oil prices, at least for now.
“The fall in oil prices to the current level is not troublesome yet and the government can still get around it, although it will have to rationalise itspolicies,” says Masoud Nili, a prominent economist in Tehran.
Ali Shams-Ardakani, an energy expert, suggested lower prices would make the government “more cautious” but that its current policies would still be “manageable” if prices fell to $65. Anything below $55 would become uncomfortable, he added.
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Bahrainis seek reassurances over economic stability
By Andrew England
Published: October 23 2008 03:00 | Last updated: October 23 2008 03:00
Against a backdrop of the global financial crisis and questions about the state of capitalism, the timing of a gathering of government officials, business leaders and union representatives at a hotel in Bahrain over the weekend was viewed by some to be opportune.
The conference tackled issues such as wages and poverty. The General Federation of Bahrain Trade Unions pushed for the formation of a committee made up of government, employers and employees to work on the introduction of a minimum wage.
"We are lucky to hold this conference at this time as many are speaking now in the US and the west [about] 'enough free capitalism'," says Karim Radhi, a union official. "We have to study the role of the state . . . this conference will be a good opportunity to put these demands."
All around the Gulf, governments and the public have been mulling the impact of the financial crisis. Some seem more concerned than others and some governments have been more active in their responses than their neighbours.
In Bahrain the mood is mixed. It has long seen itself as a regional financial centre and is home to more than 400 financial institutions but it has meagre hydrocarbon resources. Bahrain's stock market has not tumbled like others in the region. As one banker quips, many Bahrainis tend to have debts rather than deposits.
The union officials, meanwhile, may see a chance to promote their argument for the minimum wage, but are also concerned about the potential impact of the crisis in their kingdom, particularly on jobs.
As Bahrain has sought to diversify its economy, financial services has become an important sector, growing to account for about 25 per cent of its gross domestic product and employing about 12,000 people, some 70 per cent of whom are Bahrainis.
The authorities have stuck to an optimistic tune. While richer neighbours including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have announced various measures ranging from guaranteeing deposits to making funds available to banks if needed, the message from Bahrain's leaders has been that all is well in their backyard.
Bahrain does have a long standing protection scheme for retail deposits of up to 15,000 dinars ($40,000). But the lack of specifics from the authorities has frustrated many.
At the conference, union officials and businessmen quibbled about unemployment statistics and wages, but were in agreement in their calls for greater communication from their government.
"We see other countries talking about it, so why do they not talk about it?" asks Adel Maskati, a senior official at Bahrain's Chamber of Commerce and Industry. "We have confidence in the system, but why not tell us what they are doing?"
Rasheed al-Maraj, governor of the central bank, defends the authorities' stance.
"Why do we have to give false assurance for something that is not there?" he tells the Financial Times. "We just don't want to get carried away with things that will raise alarm unnecessarily."
He says there is no serious liquidity squeeze so far or signs of panic. The central bank has been getting daily reports on banks' "exposure and their activity and we have not had any kinds of reasons to say we should do this".
Bankers tend to agree that Bahrain's local banks do not have significant exposure to distressed assets in the west as they have focused on their home markets - although some Bahrainis are nervous about the real estate market.
But the size and number of the offshore banking units - which have been rebranded wholesale banks since 2006 and allowed to engage in onshore activities - could present the nation with an awkward situation if problems emerge in that sector, some bankers say. The total assets of the 125 banking institutions - including 64 wholesale banks - is about $265bn compared to its GDP of $11bn, making it impossible for Bahrain to offer a blanket guarantee as the richer UAE has done.
Any crunch in Bahrain would "be particularly damaging for sentiment and the kingdom's credibility as a financial centre", says a regional banker.
But Mr Maraj says he does not see any risk and if an entity did encounter difficulties the authorities would base its response on the potential for any wider fall-out. "But I have to emphasise at this stage this is a hypothetical question."
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Go-ahead for £20bn Typhoon sale to Saudis
By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington and Sylvia Pfeifer in London
Published: October 23 2008 03:23 | Last updated: October 23 2008 03:23
The US has given Britain the green light to sell Typhoon fighter jets to Saudi Arabia by approving the transfer of sensitive American technology on the aircraft after months of internal debate.
The Bush administration told Congress this week that it would approve the transfer, which paves the way for the UK to proceed with the £20bn ($32.4bn, €25.4bn) deal to sell 72 Eurofighter Typhoons to the Gulf kingdom.
The state department has wanted to approve the transfer for some time, but was resisted by the justice department and Congress, both of which were concerned that approval could impact a probe into BAE Systems, the British defence company.
The justice department is investigating BAE, which is the prime contractor to the UK on the Typhoon deal, to see if it broke any US laws by allegedly bribing Saudi officials over a previous arms deal known as al-Yamamah. BAE has denied any wrongdoing.
People familiar with the issue said the debate was resolved after the US state department agreed to include language in the Congressional notification to underscore that the approval did not signify that Washington had concluded that the UK, or any company associated with the Typhoon deal, had not broken US law.
Greg Suchan, a former state department official on arms transfers, said: “In 10 years of doing arms transfers I have never seen anything like that as part of a section 36 [congressional] notification.”
News of the US approval is a boost for Britain’s largest defence contractor and prepares the ground for the export of the 72 Eurofighter Typhoons to the Gulf kingdom as part of a deal signed last year called Project Salam, or Al-Salam, meaning “peace”.
The initial order value was £4.3bn but the contract will be supplemented with a further order for armaments and weapons systems estimated to be worth £5bn. The Saudis are expected to spend a further £10bn on maintenance, training and support for the aircraft.
The first 24 Typhoons will be built at BAE’s factory at Warton, Lancashire. The remaining jets are likely to be assembled in Saudi Arabia. The company already employs about 5,000 people in the kingdom.
The contract was held up amid concerns that an investigation by the UK’s Serious Fraud Office into BAE’s earlier dealings with the Saudis could derail a sale. The SFO was looking into allegations of corruption and bribery in the al-Yamamah contract.
The Saudis threatened to cancel the Typhoon order and withdraw anti-terrorism co-operation with the UK if it pursued the investigation. The SFO ended its investigation into al-Yamamah in December 2006.
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S Africa set to borrow more for infrastructure
By Tom Burgis in Cape Town
Published: October 22 2008 03:00 | Last updated: October 22 2008 03:00
South Africa is to put its 15-year-old strategy of fiscal prudence to the test after it announced a sharp rise in borrowing to fund vast infrastructure investments aimed at keeping its economy growing through lean years.
Gross government debt will jump by R30bn ($2.8bn, €2.2bn, £1.7bn) over the coming financial year to R606bn, sending the public sector into the red overall. Under a three-year blueprint unveiled yesterday by Trevor Manuel, the finance minister, it will rise to R750bn by 2011-12.
Africa's biggest economy would expand by 3.7 per cent this year, Mr Manuel predicted - lower than the 4 per cent he forecast in February's budget - before slowing further to 3 per cent next year, he said.
That will hurt tax receipts, meaning that Mr Manuel's much-vaunted budget surplus - achieved for the first time in South Africa's troubled history last year - will evaporate, becoming a deficit of 1.6 per cent of gross domestic product by 2010.
Global economic cycles meant that policymakers faced a "nasty tendency to boom and bust", said the veteran minister. "Whether you can smooth out the gyrations is the test of the quality of fiscal policy."
Having been cautious during the boom in demand for the nation's abundant commodities, the government could now afford to give the economy a boost, he said.
The government plans to build roads, railways and ports in an effort to attract investment and cut high unemployment, and is also preparing the country to host the 2010 football World Cup. It also hopes that its R600bn, three-year infrastructure programme will compensate for cash-strapped households. Squeezed by 12 per cent interest rates and inflation of 13.6 per cent, debt-laden consumers have reined in their spending.
Nazmeera Moola, a macro-strategist at Macquarie First South, said: "What they are doing is justifying the prudent, counter-cyclical policies of previous years. Yes, they are going into deficits, but so is most of the world."
The treasury's hand has been forced in part by the need to finance the recovery of Eskom, the battered state power group. But Mr Manuel stopped short of offering blanket credit guarantees to state-owned enterprises.
Officials said they were adjusting their borrowing plans to try to raise a greater portion at home and less abroad. Pandemonium in the credit markets has widened the spread between the rate at which South Africa can borrow over that at which the US does from 65 basis points 12 months ago to "north of 400" now.
Mr Manuel moved to counter calls from the ruling alliance's left wing to relax the central bank's aggressive inflation-targeting mandate, saying the 3-6 per cent target would remain the "anchor" of monetary policy.
Jeff Gable, head of research at Absa Capital, said: "The markets will enjoy this reprieve from changes to the inflation target. But they will look suspiciously at the increase in the borrowing requirement."
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Wall Street facing heavy job losses
By Daniel Pimlott in New York
Published: October 22 2008 23:13 | Last updated: October 22 2008 23:13
Wall Street could face tens of thousands more job losses as a result of the banking crisis and see average pay drop by more than a quarter, a report from the New York Federal Reserve suggested on Wednesday.
In a comparison with previous financial sector downturns, the report said the current crisis shared characteristics with market problems in the late eighties and early years of this century.
Employment in those periods fell 17 per cent and 12 per cent respectively, while in the early 2000s salaries fell 27 per cent..
There were 460,000 jobs in New York finance in September, according to Moody’s economy.com. A contraction of 12-17 per cent would be equivalent to 55,000 - 78,000 lost jobs.
Between March, when financial sector employment topped out, and August of this year, 10,000 jobs – 2 per cent of the industry workforce – have already been shed, the Fed’s Current Issues in Economics and Finance report said.
“The city’s finance sector stands on the verge of a significant multiyear downturn in employment and in real earnings,” it warns.
The loss of tens of thousands of finance jobs – which made up 12.7 per cent of employment in New York last year – would have huge knock-on effects for the rest of the city, as every position is thought to generate about two or two and half other jobs.
Other areas in New York state and neighbouring regions will also be hurt. In nearby New Jersey, 15,000 jobs in financial services, or 5 per cent of employment in the sector, have already gone since the peak in employment in late 2005.
The report warns that the effect on earnings is likely to be more extreme than that on jobs, because real income in finance is now on average higher in the city than in earlier periods.
“The current weakness in the financial sector may be more likely to manifest itself in severe declines in income rather than in employment,” the report said. Losses in income could be “at the higher end of the historical range, perhaps as much as, or more than, the 27 percent decline seen in the 2000 cycle.”
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Berlin prepares stimulus package
By Bertrand Benoit in Berlin
Published: October 22 2008 23:12 | Last updated: October 22 2008 23:12
Germany is preparing a package of economic measures to support consumption and help selected industries as growth in Europe’s largest economy rapidly loses steam, government officials said on Wednesday.
The fiscal package is considered more than just an economic response to the financial crisis; it is also a political move aimed at making Berlin’s €500bn ($644bn, £395bn) rescue package for its banks more palatable to voters, a year ahead of a general election at risk of becoming overshadowed by the abrupt slowdown.
The government reduced its 2009 gross domestic product growth forecast last week from 1.2 to 0.2 per cent and several economists fear the economy could even shrink next year.
Although details of what will be included are yet to be announced, the move confirms that Berlin is no longer aiming to balance the federal budget by 2011, once a central goal of Angela Merkel, the chancellor.
Government officials said on Wednesday Ms Merkel had appointed Jörg Asmussen, deputy finance minister, and Walther Otremba, deputy economics minister, to prepare a list of measures to support consumers and business that could be adopted as early as next week.
The growth-supporting efforts are thought to be tax incentives to encourage consumption of German products, such as new cleaner cars or energy-efficient heating systems for homes.
“We need measures that have leverage,” said Joachim Poss, a Social Democratic MP and public finance expert, adding that these should be limited in the time they were available.
One option would be to increase the budget of a 2006 programme of tax incentives to encourage consumers to insulate their homes.
The economics ministry is also keen for KfW Group, the public sector development bank, to provide 100 per cent loans to small and mid-sized companies, as they struggle to secure credit in the financial turbulence.
More controversial is the issue of tax cuts, largely because of Ms Merkel’s concerns, shared by Peer Steinbrück, the finance minister, that these could fail to increase consumption at a time the downturn is beginning toaffect tax revenues.
However, an economics ministry official said Mr Asmussen and Mr Otremba had not abandoned the notion of income tax cuts.
Alternatively, the government could decide to bring forward by one year a decision to allow taxpayers to deduct the cost of their health insurance from their tax bills, the official said.
The decision, forced upon the government by a court ruling, was due to apply from 2010 and would cost the federal and regional governments €9bn a year in total.
●Greece’s largest banks have agreed to the government’s €28bn ($36bn, £22.1bn) rescue plan at a meeting with the finance minister and the central bank governor, the ministry said last night.
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Czech economy at risk of contagion
By Jan Cienski in Prague
Published: October 22 2008 13:52 | Last updated: October 22 2008 13:52
The Czech banking system is sound and the economy is healthier than its Hungarian counterpart, but the country is still at risk of contagion from the global financial crisis, according toZdenek Tuma, the governor of the Czech central bank.
“There are very important differences with Hungary; the macroeconomic balance is better, especially regarding public finances, and secondly we have negligible foreign exchange risk,” Mr Tuma told the FT, pointing out that Czech banks had granted almost no foreign currency loans which were so popular in Hungary.
However, he added that the country could face problems because of a continued lack of confidence in the interbank market, because the overwhelming majority of its banks are foreign owned and their parents could get into trouble, and because of worsening problems in the region and in western Europe. Hungary’s travails have had a knock-on effect across the region, depressing the Prague stock exchange and weakening the koruna.
The very open Czech economy sends the EU 85 per cent of its exports, with Germany alone accounting for a third so a recession in western Europe would have a severe impact. Mr Tuma said he was preparing to lower growth estimates for next year from the central bank’s already conservative estimate of 3.5 per cent, although inflation, currently 6.6 per cent, will likely slow to only about 3 per cent by the end of 2009.
The Czechs are also in for a bout of political instability as Mirek Topolanek, the prime minister, faces a vote of confidence in parliament on Wednesday. A sex and influence peddling scandal earlier this year cost the ruling coalition its parity in the 200-member parliament. Mr Topolanek has also been weakened by the drubbing his Civic Democrats (ODS) suffered at the hands of the Social Democrats (CSSD) in last weekend’s local and senate elections. Voters were reacting to the unpopular agreement to allow the US to build part of its missile defence system in the Czech Republic and to earlier economic reforms, which included unpopular changes to the health care system.
Most analysts expect the government to cobble together a bare majority in parliament, but Mr Topolanek’s position atop the ODS is much shakier and he could face a challenge from Pavel Bem, the popular mayor of Prague, for the party’s leadership.
Mr Topolanek will also find it difficult to muster the support he needs to continue pushing through promised pension and health care reforms.
“Forget the second wave of reforms,” said Kamil Janacek, chief economist for Komercni Banka, a subsidiary of France’s Société Générale.
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US banker re-routed money to Tories
By Alex Barker, Political Correspondent
Published: October 22 2008 21:42 | Last updated: October 22 2008 21:42
The Conservatives rejected an impermissible £6,600 donation from the most well-known US woman in the City of London, only to accept the same sum from her investment company six days later, the Financial Times has discovered.
The donation from Robin Saunders, which paid for a table at the Tory “black and white ball”, will raise fresh questions of Conservative fundraising practices just as the party is being forced to deny allegations of advising foreign nationals to “channel” donations via UK-based companies.
George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, and Andrew Feldman, a Tory fundraiser, strongly deny suggesting to Oleg Deripaska, a Russian metals billionaire, that he donate via LDV, a British vanmaker he owns. A donation offered to the Tories from Mr Deripaska’s company was turned down as “inappropriate”.
The £6,600 initially given under the name of Ms Saunders, the former WestLB banker, shows that the party has in the past been willing to take money from companies whose foreign owners have sought to make an impermissible donation.
Ms Saunders became the darling of the business media after securing funding for Wembley stadium and Formula One. But after a collapsed securitisation she left WestLB for a role running Clearbrook Capital, her own investment company backed by Jacob Rothschild.
Lord Rothschild’s son Nathaniel has led the accusations against Mr Osborne after he felt betrayed by his friend breaking his trust and gossiping about a private holiday in Corfu.
Ms Saunders’s spokesperson said she was invited by Michael Spencer, Tory treasurer, to take a table at the ball, which she used to entertain clients, investors and advisers. She sent a cheque “on behalf of Clearbrook” but mistakenly used her personal book. “The Conservatives pointed out that she had made the donation in the wrong way,” the spokesperson said. “She recognised the error and sent a Clearbrook cheque.” There is no suggestion that Ms Saunders broke electoral rules.
Under electoral law, only people on the UK voters’ register can make political donations. Companies owned by foreign nationals can give money provided they are incorporated and carry on business in the UK.
However, there are rules against using individuals or companies as an “agent” to conceal the identity of a donor. Tory officials admit that foreign-owned groups have donated to the party and that businessmen not on the electoral register have attended fundraising events. “All our donations are fully declared to the Electoral Commission. We always comply fully with the regulations,” said a spokesman.
Commission records show that Ms Saunders gave £6,600 to the Tories in early February. It was returned as impermissible on February 21. Six days later, the party accepted the same amount from Clearbrook Capital.
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Landlords prepare rescue deal for retailers
By Tom Braithwaite and Daniel Thomas
Published: October 22 2008 20:33 | Last updated: October 22 2008 20:33
Landlords are preparing a package of measures to help small shopkeepers survive the retail downturn, allowing them to escape the potentially bankrupting effect of paying rent quarterly in advance.
Small and troubled retailers are to be offered monthly rents as a group of better-performing store chains led by Sir Philip Green’s Arcadia Group and Lord Harris’s Carpetright lead calls for the reform of the centuries-old practice of quarterly bills.
With retailers fearing a prolonged freeze in consumer spending, independent retailers with three or fewer shops are the least capable to afford paying large chunks of cash in advance.
The country’s leading landlords including Land Securities, PruPIM and Hammerson met representatives from the retail sector last week to discuss proposals to spread the cost. It is expected that smaller independent retailers will be told they can pay monthly rents with little or no penalty in spite of the greater administrative cost to landlords.
The two sides are expected to come to an agreement on the reform of service charges, which retailers pay to their landlords for communal services in shopping centres and other large retail properties.
Landlords are considering more flexible lease terms for smaller retailers, which are often the ones that first face problems during a consumer downturn given their lack of resources.
Most landlords have resisted switching bigger retailers’ existing leases to monthly payments, although they have indicated they are open to negotiation on new leases and where there are signs of distress.
One of the attendees at the meeting said that there were as many as 30,000 small independent retailers in the UK, although some of the larger landlords will have only limited exposure to these given the focus on big regional shopping malls and parks within their property portfolios. There are many more private landlords with small portfolios of high street shops that are unlikely to sign up to these industry measures.
Liz Peace, chief executive of the British Property Federation, would not comment directly on the talks about independent retailers, but said: “Throughout this debate we have encouraged retailers to engage with their landlords over rental concerns, and welcome any positive outcomes that may result from confidential discussions. Our members have, and will continue to engage directly with their customers, which is something the British Property Federation has continually promoted.”
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Abbey's fight over £2.8m race bias award
By Megan Murphy, Law Courts Correspondent
Published: October 23 2008 03:00 | Last updated: October 23 2008 03:00
Abbeyis fighting a rearguard action against a record £2.8m race discrimination award made to a former employee, in a case that highlights the huge risks facing businesses that are shedding staff in response to the credit crunch.
Balbinder Chagger, an accountant of Indian descent, claimed racial discrimination and unfair dismissal after he was forced to forgo his £100,000-a-year salary and retrain as a teacher when he was made redundant by the retail banking group in 2006.
A London employment tribunal found in his favour and awarded the unprecedented payout after hearing he had applied unsuccessfully for 111 jobs in financial services before deciding to quit the City.
Mr Chagger's compensation dwarfed the £1.4m won by former Schroders worker, Julie Bower, for sex discrimination in 2002.
The Employment Appeal Tribunal upheld Mr Chagger's central allegations last week but ordered that the amount of compensation awarded against Abbey should be reassessed, on the grounds that the original tribunal had wrongly calculated his loss of future earnings by assuming he would have spent the rest of his working life in a similarly high-paying role.
Lawyers said that while the £2.8m figure was likely to be reduced significantly, Mr Chagger could still expect a seven-figure payout.
The majority of high-stakes employment disputes are settled long before reaching a formal remedies hearing, in large part because of the unpredictable nature of the tribunal process.
Legal experts expressed astonishment last night at both the size of the award and Abbey's decision to fight the case, given the reputational risk involved. Some suggested it might fuel unrealistic expectations about the type of money on offer from employment tribunals, hindering settlements.
"This will be a real eye-opener for employers," said Rachel Dineley, a lawyer at Beachcroft. "It's simply extraordinary."
Mr Chagger, who worked as a trading risk controller at Abbey for 4½ years, was made redundant in a cost-cutting exercise designed to shave 5 per cent off his department's budget. He claimed he was targeted ahead of a similarly performing woman because of the colour of his skin.
Abbey said the bank was considering a further appeal and expected to present a "strong case" on reduced compensation. "Abbey is committed to diversity in the workplace and does not condone unlawful discrimination, whether on grounds of race or based on any other individual characteristic.''
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Taking on Russia over the rouble will prove a mistake for speculators
Oil and gas make up more than 70pc of Russia’s exports, and oil now trades at less than $70 a barrel – the threshold under which the government can’t balance the budget.
By Pierre Briancon, breakingviews.com
Last Updated: 6:26AM BST 23 Oct 2008
Foreign capital is fleeing. The government is busy trying to help companies refinance their dollar-denominated debt while hoping to avoid a run on banks and a general financial meltdown. The stock exchange is already down 70pc since early July. Can the rouble hold much longer?
The case may sound desperate. But foreign exchange speculators hoping to make a quick buck on the Russian currency’s demise may want to think twice. They face a still-formidable adversary – the Bank of Russia. The central bank sits on more than $500bn worth of foreign currency reserves, which it is determined to use to avoid a sharp devaluation.
Not all of the reserves will be available for currency operations. The government has said it will use $50bn of the bank’s reserves to help Russia’s largest banks and companies refinance foreign debts.
Some of the money is stashed away in two so-called “stabilisation” funds, which could be deployed to help support prices in the battered stock market. But that leaves Alexei Kudrin, the finance minister, with a lot of money to prop up the rouble, which is down 4.5pc this month against the mixed dollar/euro peg the Bank of Russia uses to tailor its interventions.
So far the Bank has been pretty good at managing the rouble in a semi-fixed regime that allows some flexibility. The ultimate goal of an inflation-focused, free exchange rate model is still some way off. It’s not a realistic aim in the midst of the current crisis, and it will be tough to achieve as long as Russia remains overly dependent on oil.
But in the meantime the Bank should have both the flexibility and the reserves needed to manage the rouble. It might ultimately prefer devaluation and lower interest rates to a firm defence of the current exchange rate. But it is rich enough to choose for itself.
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S Korea to change shipbuilder accounts rules
By Song Jung-a in Seoul and Jennifer Hughes in London
Published: October 23 2008 04:09 | Last updated: October 23 2008 04:09
South Korea’s financial regulator on Wednesday said it would amend accounting rules for shipbuilders and other exporters to prevent their financial statements from being undermined by mounting currency losses.
The Financial Services Commission (FSC) said the new rules would allow shipbuilders to offset losses from the plunging value of the Korean won by including expected currency gains from contracts that had not yet been executed – which are not normally reported – as well as foreign exchange losses from derivatives contracts linked to the overseas orders.
The Korean won has plunged more than 30 per cent against the US dollar so far this year, causing heavy foreign exchange losses for many exporters. The new rules will be applied for the current quarter.
Under previous rules, exporters were only allowed to book earnings from overseas orders when the cash was received – but they had to report each quarter the fair value of any derivative contracts they used to hedge these overseas cash flows. The won’s slump would have led to huge reported losses on the derivative hedges without any recognition of the fact that these losses could be offset by the higher earnings from overseas orders that would result from the won’s fall.
“The accounting change will greatly help improve financial status at shipyards as it reduces the risks from the foreign exchange movement on their books,” the FSC said. “Companies will no longer have to reflect mark-to-market changes on hedging in their balance sheet.”
The derivatives contracts held by the shipbuilders and other exporters are the result of two years of Korean won appreciation. Exporters used the contracts to hedge against their rising home currency and its deteriorating effect on their overseas earnings. taken hedges against the stronger won to protect themselves from currency swings. But the won’s unexpected downturn has caught them off guard, causing heavy losses for many exporters, especially small and mid-sized companies.
The regulator also said on Wednesday it would help unlisted smaller companies by allowing them to take valuation losses from over-the-counter derivatives products out of their main earnings and instead report any such losses in notes to their balance sheets.
South Korea is home to the world’s three biggest shipbuilders. Orders at Korean shipyards reached a record $215.6bn at the end of August, accounting for about 40 per cent of the global total of $544.9bn, according to Clarkson, the world’s largest shipbroker.
The country’s top four shipbuilders, including Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries and Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering, reported a combined Won4,150bn ($3bn, €2.28bn, £1.8bn) in derivative losses at the end of June, according to the FSC.
Some of the shipbuilders, such as Samsung Heavy and Daewoo Shipbuilding, saw their capital slashed by about half at the end of June. The debt-to-equity ratio at three of the four shipbuilders surged to above 1,000 per cent.
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Second blossom
By Michiyo Nakamoto and David Pilling
Published: October 23 2008 03:00 | Last updated: October 23 2008 03:00
Not so long ago, when Japan was mired in a deep and protracted banking crisis, it was swashbuckling US bankers and private equity firms that saw gold in the debris. Many picked up bargains, bringing fresh ideas and capital to a system on its knees.
Now, as the credit crisis drives western banks up against the wall, the roles have been reversed. Japanese financial groups have moved swiftly to snap up prized assets in the US and Europe, sending a strong message that they are back on the international stage. With western rivals shell-shocked, Japanese banks have sniffed a once-in-a-generation opportunity to grab market share and remould the international financial landscape to their advantage.
Takumi Shibata, the internationally minded chief operating officer of Nomura, the Japanese broker that scooped up the Asian and European operations of the failed Lehman Brothers for a knockdown $227m (£139m, €177m) last month, can hardly hide his glee. "It would have taken about 10 years for us to build these platforms which became available overnight," he says. It would have been foolish for us not to jump on it."
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) evidently felt the same. This month Japan's biggest bank delivered a $9bn cheque to Morgan Stanley as payment for a 21 per cent stake in the venerable US investment bank. Despite a reputation for being conservative even by Japanese standards, it took MUFG just two days to stump up a sum approaching 11 per cent of its shareholders' equity.
That is not all. Earlier in the year Mizuho, Japan's second largest bank, spent $1.2bn on a stake in Merrill Lynch, while Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group invested about $1bn in the UK's Barclays. "It's proof that Japanese financial institutions have returned to health," says Tom Ito, co-head of investment banking at UBS in Tokyo. They "are now going to aggressively expand overseas".
Their re-emergence brings back memories of the 1980s - seemingly golden years when Japanese financial powerhouses, backed by the country's massive savings, seemed set to conquer the world. Equally, it marks a striking change from just a few years ago, when many of the banks were weighed down by non-performing loans and the government was forced to inject funds to save the financial system from collapse. As recently as 2003, without the government's preference shares and the generous use of deferred tax assets to boost their capital, the main banks were in effect bankrupt.
In the so-called "lost decade" that followed the bursting in 1990 of Japan's asset bubble (see below), its banks had retreated from overseas markets and hunkered down at home to rebuild their capital bases. But with the domestic crisis finally behind them, Japanese financial groups have started eyeing international markets again as a solution to their remaining problems. Not least among those is the shrinking domestic market banks face.
Despite a mild economic recovery, lending has failed to recover, as companies have turned more to the capital markets for funding. Last year, lending by the top three banks fell 2.5 per cent, says Naoko Nemoto, analyst at Standard & Poor's in Tokyo. "There is overbanking in Japan and profitability is low," she says.
The story is the same throughout Japan's financial sector, from stockbrokers to insurance companies. Nomura, for example, found its dominance at home increasingly threatened by foreign investment banks and the securities subsidiaries of Japan's megabanks. Until its demise, Lehman Brothers rather than Nomura was the top broker on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in terms of trading volume. That, says Mr Shibata, is one reason "why we were not that happy with the status quo".
Japan's non-life insurers meanwhile face a decline in premium income this year and next, largely because of a fall in car sales and hence in the need for automotive insurance. That helps to explain why Tokio, the industry leader, this year splashed out $4.7bn to acquire Philadelphia, a specialised insurance group in the US, and £442m ($726m, €564m) to acquire Kiln, the Lloyd's of London agent.
A second reason Japanese financial institutions need to expand overseas is because their main clients, Japanese corporations, are becoming increasingly global. In the wake of exporters such as Toyota and Panasonic, more domestically focused companies including Japan Tobacco and Asahi Glass are being driven to overseas markets by Japan's declining population.
But to compete in overseas markets, even those involving Japanese clients, Japan's banks and brokers need to match their western rivals' expertise, no matter some elements of that are now tarnished. Lehman overtook Nomura on the TSE three years ago because of its ability to provide high-frequency trading for clients such as hedge funds.
The discipline imposed on the banks during their time of seclusion has given them the wherewithal again to pursue global ambitions. "Their assets are more transparent and their reserve policy is much stricter, so there is considerable confidence in their financial health," says Mr Nozaki. The retreat also helped them to avoid the worst of the excesses that landed their western counterparts in such dire straits.
Until the credit crisis struck, few foreign banks were available to buy. Those that were up for grabs were prohibitively expensive. "Lehman one year ago was a $20bn market cap company and, since Asia-Pacific comprises 40 per cent, it would have cost [Nomura] $8bn," estimates one Japanese investment banker - more than 30 times what it actually paid.
Consequently, when the opportunities arose, even the most cautious Japanese bankers were tempted, notwithstanding the uncertainty still clouding the outlook for international investment banks. MUFG even cut short its due diligence on Morgan Stanley from an initially forecast one month to just a week, partly to stop its target's shares from falling further.
But having made these uncharacteristically bold moves, Japan's banks face two big questions. First, should they be buying into investment banks at a time when the sector's business model is being scrutinised and when profitability is shot to pieces?
Analysts say profitable proprietary investments and primary brokerage operations are likely to shrink, forcing investment banks to go back to their roots as more stable - but less lucrative - fee-based businesses. Yet from the Japanese perspective, even the regular fees western investment banks earn from mergers and acquisitions advice, securities underwriting and trading look attractive. These would help diversify profits and cushion the impact of a dwindling home market.
"The landscape has changed quite dramatically. The profitability, longer term, is likely to be less than it was until this year. But while the returns may not be as good, there will still be a need for expertise to raise money," says Brian Waterhouse at Japaninvest, an equity research company.
Second, will Japanese financial institutions be able to manage their investments and transform themselves from predominantly domestic institutions to serious global players? "You can acquire expertise but can you manage expertise? That is the crucial question," says Mr Waterhouse.
Nomura's success hinges on whether it is able to retain talented Lehman bankers and ensure that the positive aspects of the Lehman culture, which underpinned the US bank's successful divisions, survive in the new environment. To that end, Nomura has moved quickly to boost morale among Lehman staff through bonus guarantees. It has also appointed three non-Japanese directors to the Nomura board to infuse international thinking into its top management team.
Some warn that the bureaucratic, inward-looking culture typical of Japan's financial institutions is an obstacle to a close partnership with aggressive western bankers. "They are not the potential saviours of western capitalism," Mr Waterhouse adds. "They don't have the fire in the belly that other financial institutions have."
In MUFG's case, even before it faces any cultural issues, it must agree strategic ventures with Morgan Stanley that provide new revenue streams. "There has to be a real deal that comes out of this," says Mr Nozaki. One fillip has been that, as soon as the investment was sealed, MUFG received US financial holding company status - a licence to underwrite bonds and conduct other investment banking services, which had been denied the Japanese bank for years.
But in order to take full advantage of its new powers, MUFG will want to tap Morgan Stanley's expertise in deal- structuring and complex services and become the provider of funds to back deals. MUFG will also want to gain access through its new partner to US customers. It and Morgan Stanley are giving themselves until next June to come up with strategic initiatives.
As Katsuhito Sasajima, banking analyst at JPMorgan in Tokyo, says: "The plan that is unveiled in June will show whether Japanese banks have really changed from being lenders of last resort to being able to make strategic alliances." Given the speed of change in financial markets and the potential for western financial groups to reinvent themselves, they will have a limited time to make their mark.
The new guard
Nobuo Kuroyanagi The straight-talking, football player was instrumental in creating Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group in 2005. He has since taken the group into new areas, such as consumer finance.
Terunobu Maeda is credited with making Mizuhothe first Japanese bank to receive financial holding company status in the US. A keen gardener, he values independence and self-reliance.
Teisuke Kitayama The cosmopolitan banker began his career at the blue-chip Mitsui Bank. He has aggressively diversified Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Groupinto consumer loans and credit cards.
Kenichi Watanabe took charge at Nomura Holdings, Japan's largest broker, in April. Drawing on his experience of the 1997 Asian crisis, he was quick to raise $6bn to help finance the acquisition of Lehman's Asian and European operations.
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Iceland PM hopeful of Japanese support
Thursday, October 23 07:21 am
AFP
Iceland's prime minister was upbeat about securing Japanese financial support in remarks published Thursday as the global financial crisis ravages the island's banks.
Iceland is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for loans which would be the first given to a Western nation since 1976.
Prime Minister Geir Haarde said his government was talking with Japan as part of the deal.
"The Japanese government is very friendly and understanding of our situation," Haarde told Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper in an interview.
Echoing remarks earlier this week by his commerce minister, Haarde hoped to seal the deal soon.
"We are talking to the IMF," he said. "We expect the conclusion very soon."
The Financial Times said Monday that Iceland was angling for a six-billion-dollar (4.5-billion-euro) rescue package footed by the IMF along with central banks from the Nordic region and Japan.
Iceland is also negotiating with Russia, although talks in Moscow on a loan failed last week.
Iceland's once booming financial sector has in recent weeks collapsed under the weight of the global financial crisis, with the government forced to take over the major banks for lack of liquidity.
Its currency, the krona, has lost more than half of its value since January.
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Cathay denies British Airways takeover rumours
AFP
Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific on Thursday denied market rumours that it was planning a takeover of British Airways.
Cathay denies British Airways takeover rumours
"These rumours are unfounded. We have no plans to buy British Airways," a Cathay spokeswoman said in a brief statement.
London-listed shares of BA rose on Wednesday on speculation that the firm was a takeover target.
BA is in merger talks with Spanish national carrier Iberia, but company president Willie Walsh said in an interview in early October the move would take longer than expected due to the downturn in the aviation sector.
Cathay said last week its passenger numbers had dropped in September due to the global financial crisis, its first fall since 1993.
The airline said in its company newsletter earlier this month it had been "hit hard" by the economic downturn, with a significant drop in the number of first and business class travellers.
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Rio Tinto takes biggest tumble since 1987 crash
Reuters
Shares in global miner Rio Tinto suffered their heaviest fall since the 1987 stock-market crash on Thursday, after it dismissed rumours it was warming to a $62 billion (38 billion pound) takeover by rival BHP Billiton.
Rio Tinto shares, which jumped sharply the day before on the flurry of rumours, fell 16.3 percent to a low of A$65.60 after it told the market late on Wednesday that it knew of no basis for the speculation over BHP's all-share bid.
"It's just the unwind of the rumour-induced spike from yesterday," said Don Williams, chief investment officer at Platypus Asset Management.
The rumours ranged from a sweetened cash bid by BHP Billiton and a Chinese counter-bid and also included talk that Rio was finally opening the door to takeover talks with BHP.
Thursday's historic fall in Rio's Australian stock eclipsed the 6 percent lost by its London-listed shares on Wednesday.
Bloomberg news, citing two unnamed sources, reported from Europe in story dated Thursday that EU regulators had told BHP that its bid may break anti-monopoly rules.
A BHP spokesman declined to comment directly on the report, but said BHP continued to cooperate with the commission, which is scheduled to release its findings by January 15, 2009.
A source familiar with the probe said the commission had yet to compile a final list of any objections to the offer.
"Rio said they're not in talks with anybody, there's nothing behind what people were speculating on..." said Albert Hung, chief investment officer at Alleron Investment Management.
At 3:07 p.m. British time, Rio was 15.8 percent down at A$66.01, outpacing an 8 percent loss in BHP shares.
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Indian Brides Replace Traditional Gold Jewelry as Prices Rise
By Debarati Roy
Enlarge Image/Details
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Ashima Lahiri will say her wedding vows in December wearing fake earrings, necklaces and bangles that cost a tenth of the price of gold, breaking a millennia-old Indian tradition that brides wear the precious metal.
``Gold is too hot now,'' says the 25-year-old fashion designer from Kolkata, eastern India, who'll spend 15,000 rupees ($305) on her bridal set instead of 160,000 rupees for a real one. ``You can't touch it.''
Lahiri's not alone. Indian families, the world's biggest buyers of gold, are canceling purchases before the peak wedding season because prices have touched a record high in India, putting traditional bridal sets out of reach. That's spurred sales of gold-plated, silver and brass gem-encrusted jewelry, designed to match the bride's wedding saris.
``People are not willing to be victims of high gold prices and are instead going for glittering imitations,'' said Roli Malhotra, head of marketing at Sia Lifestyles Pvt Ltd., a 24-outlet chain of fashion jewelry stores based in Mumbai. ``Sales of imitation bridal sets are on the rise.''
Bullion, considered an investment haven, has weathered a global rout in commodities that has sent the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index down 18 percent this month, the biggest fall in at least 52 years. In India, gold has gained 14 percent this year, reversing a 6 percent decline in the global spot rate, because a 20 percent slump in the Indian rupee against the dollar to a record low has driven up the cost of importing the metal.
`Double Whammy'
``It's a double whammy for Indian buyers and retail demand has been a casualty,'' said Bharath K. Rekapalli, director of Global Financial Markets, a trading and research firm, in the southern Indian city of Hyderabad.
Demand traditionally spikes in the second-half of the year, spurred by Diwali, the Festival of Light, which is considered an auspicious time to buy the precious metal by India's majority Hindu religion. Brides also buy more gold and relatives offer bridal sets as gifts for the trousseau as Indians prefer to get married in winter to avoid the monsoon rains and summer heat.
``Gold prices have put a cap on the number of sets I can buy for my daughter,'' said Rekha Makhija, 52, who will buy two instead of three collections for her daughter's wedding in January. ``While I plan to give her a few of my jewelry sets, it will be nice to buy something fashionable and trendy.''
The yellow metal is considered the best gift by relatives because it insures the bride leaves her family with her own property, said Ravi Jalan, director of New Delhi-based Jalan Commodities.
Family Vaults
Households in India have 15,000 tons locked away in family vaults, almost double the reserves held by the U.S. Federal Reserve, according to consultant McKinsey & Co. That's worth about $376 billion at current prices after gold has gained for seven straight years.
The increase is crippling Bipin Zaveri, 52, and his family's D.P. Zaveri showroom in Mumbai's 141-year-old gold bazaar.
``Many of us will be out of business if prices continue to prevail at current rates,'' he said. ``We don't expect customers to rush back just because it's wedding season.''
Indian families buy gold when prices decline and not necessarily when their daughters are getting married, said Zaveri, surrounded by glittering chains and rings in a showroom devoid of customers.
Changing trends have also reduced jewelry sales, Ramesh, who only uses one name, of R. Kothari & Co. Jewellers in Mumbai said. His revenue has dropped by almost 50 percent in the past two years, he said in an interview.
Chunky Jewelry
``No one wants chunky jewelry anymore and even if they do buy something heavy it's usually a gold set studded with precious gems or diamond,'' said Ramesh, pointing to a wall-mounted display-case with necklaces. ``Everything seems to be going against us.''
India's bullion demand was 769.2 tons of in 2007, less than the 1,000 tons estimated by the World Gold Council, as more families chose to rework their mother's or grandparent's bridal collections instead of paying for new gold.
``Every home in India has enough gold so if there is a wedding all they have to do is melt old jewelry and make new sets,'' said Daman Prakash Rathod, director at MNC Bullion Ltd., the biggest bullion dealer in southern India.
For bride Lahiri, she'd rather wear imitation jewelry on her big day than melt and destroy her great grandmother's necklace.
``Gold is considered a family heirloom and passed through generations, so why would I ever sell my family treasure?'' said Lahiri, who was in Mumbai to plan her wedding with her fiancée and friends. A gold bridal set her mother has given her doesn't match her wedding outfit, so she'll wear imitations.
``Everybody will notice how coordinated my clothes and jewelry are, and not really bother whether those earrings are fake or real,'' she said.
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08:48 GMT, Thursday, 23 October 2008 09:48 UK
Iranian group wins EU court case
Breaking News
A top European Union court has annulled an EU decision to freeze the funds of a prominent Iranian opposition group.
The People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran (PMOI) was put on the EU's terror blacklist in 2002, which meant the EU could bloc the group's finances.
But the Luxembourg-based Court of First Instance ruled on Thursday that the EU's decision was wrong.
The verdict follows an appeal by the group after a British court had ruled in its favour last year.
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04:23 GMT, Thursday, 23 October 2008 05:23 UK
German blacklist call riles Swiss
By Imogen Foulkes
BBC News, Bern
Euro currency
The Swiss government has reacted angrily to suggestions by the German finance minister that Switzerland ought to be put on a blacklist of tax havens.
During a meeting of European finance ministers in Paris, Peer Steinbrueck said Switzerland was helping German citizens to commit tax evasion.
He said this was depriving his own government of much-needed cash.
The Swiss foreign minister has summoned Germany's ambassador to Bern to explain his government's stance.
Secrecy
Switzerland knows very well that Germany is unhappy that wealthy German citizens may be saving their money in Switzerland, thus avoiding paying taxes.
Nevertheless, Peer Steinbrueck's suggestion that Switzerland should be on a blacklist of tax havens has angered the government here.
The Swiss foreign minister expressed her displeasure at the meeting with the German ambassador.
Meanwhile Urs Roth, head of the Swiss Bankers Association, said Mr Steinbrueck's comments were outrageous.
"Switzerland will not be put on a blacklist because these accusations are completely baseless, we have double taxation agreements with more than 60 countries, among them Germany.
"We exchange information with these countries, including information about tax fraud, so we are quite within international norms."
But tax fraud for criminal purposes is one thing, tax evasion is another, and many European Union countries believe Switzerland should be more helpful.
During the current financial crisis, governments need every tax euro they can scrape together and the pressure on Swiss banks is sure to grow.
The question is whether they will bow to that pressure. The message up to now has been - no compromise on Switzerland's much-loved banking secrecy.
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17:16 GMT, Wednesday, 22 October 2008 18:16 UK
Kuwait ends 18-year Iraq absence
Ali Mumin and Hoshyar Zebari
The first Kuwaiti ambassador to Iraq since the Gulf state was invaded by its larger neighbour in 1990 has taken up his post in Baghdad.
Diplomatic ties between the two countries were severed after the invasion, and restored following the ousting of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Ambassador Ali Mumin joins envoys from Jordan and Syria, who arrived in Baghdad in the past two weeks.
A number of other Arab states have said they will follow suit soon.
The influx of Arab ambassadors follows improvements in security in Baghdad and pressure from the US on its regional allies to support the government.
Mr Mumin appeared at a news conference in Baghdad with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari after presenting his credentials.
"The political leaders of the two countries have decided to forget the past and build good relations between them," he said.
The two neighbours, both with massive oil reserves, have yet to settle a number of issues related to the war, in particular compensation to Kuwait estimated to amount to tens of billions of dollars.
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22:09 GMT, Tuesday, 21 October 2008 23:09 UK
Canadian 'role in Syria torture'
A Canadian inquiry has concluded that officials there contributed indirectly to the torture of three Canadian citizens in Syria.
The men were arrested in Syria on suspicion of involvement in terrorist activities, but were released in 2004.
Returning to Canada, they said they were tortured and that Canada supplied Syria with questions to ask them.
However, the judge said the officials concerned seemed to have believed they were acting in Canada's best interests.
Ahmad El Maati, Abdullah Almalki and Muayyed Nureddi, all of Middle Eastern origin, were separately arrested by Syrian military intelligence between 2001 and 2004.
They were accused of having links to radical Islamist groups but have denied any such connection.
Judge Frank Iacobucci, who headed the closed-door, government-initiated inquiry in Ottawa, concluded that the men had, as they claimed, been subjected to abuse which "amounted to torture" in Syria.
He said torture was "a pernicious practice that is just beyond any kind of defence" and that their mistreatment had "resulted indirectly" from the actions of the Canadian intelligence agencies and officials.
These actions included the sharing of information on the men, the sending of questions to be put to them by Syria and, in some cases, a failure to provide effective consular services.
'Serious threat'
Maher Arar But Mr Iacobucci said he had found no evidence that any of the officials involved were "seeking to do anything other than carry out conscientiously the duties and responsibilities of the institutions of which they were a part".
"You're looking at this protection of the state against terrorist threats, and you've got to take that very seriously," he said.
He said it was "neither necessary nor appropriate" for him to rule on the role of any individual official.
The judge also made clear that nothing in his report should be taken as an indication of there being truth in the allegations against the men, as the investigation had no mandate to explore this.
He said he hoped Canada would "continue to strive to get the balance, the equilibrium, between the protection of national security interest along with the protection, preservation and enhancement of freedoms".
The investigation was ordered in the wake of the case of Maher Arar, a Syrian-born Canadian who was deported to Syria in 2002 and tortured.
Canada compensated him after exonerating him and finding that the US had acted on Canadian information.
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アジア連盟、ハンドボールの罰金取り消しへ やり直し予選
2008.10.23 00:41
「中東の笛」をめぐり異例のやり直しとなったハンドボールの北京五輪アジア予選に参加したことでアジア連盟（ＡＨＦ）から罰金を科され、支払いを拒否していた日本協会の市原則之副会長は２２日、ＡＨＦのアハマド会長が「過去の話は問わない」と支払いを取り消す方針を示したことを明らかにした。
アジア・オリンピック評議会（ＯＣＡ）会長でもあるアハマド氏は同日、日体大の名誉博士号授与式に出席するため来日。市原副会長はインドネシアから同氏の専用機に同乗して会談し「大筋で決着した。和解という理解だ」と述べた。２０１６年夏季五輪開催を目指す東京招致委員会も問題の解決を望んでいた。
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ハンドボール界に依然として続く“再予選特需” 2008.10.5 08:00
北京五輪アジア予選が「中東の笛」と呼ばれる疑惑の判定を理由に異例のやり直しとなり、脚光を浴びたハンドボール。日本チームは五輪に出場できなかったものの、９月に再開幕した日本リーグ後半戦の観客数は例年以上を記録しているという。１月に東京で行われた再予選がハンドボール界に与えた影響に迫った。（西尾美穂子）
「まだハンドボール界には追い風が吹いている」とは、日本ハンドボール協会の家永昌樹ゼネラルマネジャー（ＧＭ）。後半戦の観客が増えている背景には、日本男子のエースでテレビ番組にも引っ張りだこの宮崎大輔（大崎電気）の人気や、沖縄勢として日本リーグに初参戦した琉球コラソンへの注目もあるが、１月２９、３０日に東京・国立代々木競技場で行われた北京五輪再予選で注目を集めたことが大きい。男女とも再予選で韓国に敗れ、その後の世界最終予選でも勝ち抜くことができずに五輪出場を逃し、一時の熱狂は冷めたものの、現在も再予選による“特需”が続いているという。
９月上旬、リーグ後半戦の開幕地となった北海道の会場には２３５０人、沖縄の会場には１２０６人を集客。昨年の１試合の平均入場者数６４９人を大きく上回った。会場には初めて複数のテレビ局が取材に訪れ、撮影位置を巡り関係者が対応に追われる一幕もあった。
協会への平成２０年度の登録者数も大幅に増えた。中学・高校でハンドボール部に入部し、協会に登録した生徒は前年比の１５～２０％増。全体では再予選を機に協会が目標としていた１０万人を突破し、飛躍的な伸びを記録した。
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琴欧洲ら４力士尋問も却下 八百長疑惑訴訟で東京地裁
週刊現代の八百長疑惑記事をめぐり、日本相撲協会や力士らが発行元の講談社などに損害賠償と謝罪広告を求めた訴訟で、東京地裁（中村也寸志裁判長）は２３日までに、原告の大関琴欧洲ら４力士に対する講談社側の尋問申請について「必要ない」として却下した。
ほかの３人は大関の魁皇と千代大海、十両春日錦。８月に大麻取締法違反容疑で逮捕後、同協会から解雇された元幕内若ノ鵬のガグロエフ・ソスラン元力士（２０）から同誌上で「八百長を強要され、白星を売った」などと名指しで告発されたが、いずれも協会の事情聴取に対し、疑惑を否定していた。
東京地裁は既に、講談社側によるガグロエフ元力士の証人申請も却下している。
八百長疑惑訴訟では、原告の横綱朝青龍と北の湖前協会理事長がそれぞれ出廷し、「八百長はない」と否定している。
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カップめん食べ異状、スープから防虫剤成分 神奈川
2008年10月23日18時34分
神奈川県藤沢市は２３日、日清食品製造の即席カップめん「カップヌードル」を２０日午後６時ごろに食べた市内在住の女性（６７）が、嘔吐（おうと）や舌のしびれを感じるなどの症状を訴えたと発表した。２１日に市保健所に訴えがあり、食べ残したカップめんのスープを検査した結果、防虫剤などの主成分であるパラジクロロベンゼンが検出されたという。
市によると、女性がカップめんのふたを開けた際、薬品臭がしたという。女性の夫（７５）も少量を食べたが、異状はなかった。このカップめんは８月３０日に茨城県取手市の日清食品関東工場で製造され、女性は９月２９日ごろ、同市辻堂新町４丁目のスーパーで購入したという。市は流通経路などを調べるとともに、藤沢署に情報提供して原因を調べている。
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福岡県警、身元誤り遺体引き渡し 火葬後に「本人」発見
2008年10月23日17時15分
街中で倒れて亡くなった男性の身元を福岡県警大牟田署が間違え、遺体を引き渡された別人の親類が火葬まで終えていたことが、県警や関係者への取材で２２日、わかった。火葬した日に、亡くなったとされた男性（６１）が生きているのを近親者が見つけて「勘違い」が発覚。同署は、いとこに遺体の顔写真を見せて身元を確認していたが、「確認が甘かった」と非を認めている。改めて身元を別の男性（５８）と特定し、遺骨はその親類が引き取ったという。
県警や関係者によると、大牟田市内の駅改札口近くで１７日朝、男性が倒れているのが見つかり、病院で間もなく死亡が確認された。死因は心原性ショックとみられている。
所持品らしい小型リュック内には、同市内の男性名義の預金通帳や領収書があったため、同署員がいとこを探し出して顔写真を見せた。いとこが「間違いない」と認めたため、亡くなったのは通帳名義人の男性と判断したという。
この男性は一人暮らし。同署の連絡で翌１８日、県内や関東地方に住む兄弟ら数人が大牟田市内で葬儀を営んだ。ところが火葬の約４時間後、兄弟らが偶然、死んだはずの男性を同市内で発見。声をかけると男性は「久しぶり」と近寄ってきたという。義妹は「夢を見ているようだった」と振り返る。
男性は「警察に殺されたような気分。ものすごくいやな思いだ」と話した。
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海自に埋蔵銀１５億円？ 救難艇電池用の銀、大幅に余る
2008年10月23日15時3分
海上自衛隊が潜水艦の救難艇や魚雷で使用する銀電池について、会計検査院が調べたところ、廃電池や、電池から取り出した銀を大量に保管していたことが分かった。海自は廃電池を新しい銀電池にリサイクルするとしていたが、活用していなかった。検査院は、廃電池約１７トン（３２２８個）には約９億８千万円の価値があり、速やかに売却するべきだとしている。
銀電池は銀で構成される電池で、高い出力が可能などの特徴がある。救難艇には縦横１１センチ、長さ４５センチの銀電池を１６０本使用する。
検査院によると、海自は廃電池から銀を回収して新たな銀電池を作るとしており、５年分の銀か廃電池を計約５トン、常時確保しておくと定めている。それ以上の廃電池は売却するとしていたが、０８年３月の段階で、廃電池約１７トンのほかに、銀約１０トン（約５億７千万円）も保管されていた。
廃電池の売却が入札の不手際などで進まなかったほか、魚雷が銀電池を使用しなくなり、新しい銀電池を作る必要性が減ってきたためという。
防衛省経理装備局は「指摘を受け、先月、廃電池３２０個（９２０キロ）を売却した。今後も売り払いを促進したい」とコメントした。
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都立墨東病院、搬送先探す役割果たさず 妊婦死亡事故（1/2ページ）
2008年10月23日15時2分
脳内出血を起こした東京都の妊婦（３６）が都立墨東病院など７病院に受け入れを断られ、その後死亡した問題で、受け入れ要請を断った都立墨東病院が周産期医療センターとして搬送先を探す役割があったにもかかわらず、かかりつけ医に任せていたことが分かった。また、都の受け入れ病院を検索するシステムも機能していなかった。
墨東病院は都指定の総合周産期母子医療センター。指定基準では「担当する地域の患者の搬送先確保に努める」とあり、同病院で患者を受け入れられない場合、他の周産期母子医療センターなどと連携して搬送先を探す役割が課されている。
しかし、都は「今回はかかりつけ医が搬送先を探すと言っていたので任せた」と説明。墨東病院側も「当直医が１人しかいないこちらの事情を知っているかかりつけ医が、気を使ってくれたのではないか」としている。
ただ、墨東病院はかかりつけ医に対し、都の周産期母子医療センターのネットワークシステム上で受け入れ可能となっていた東京慈恵会医科大付属病院、慶応義塾大学病院、日本赤十字社医療センターを紹介したという。
このネットワークシステムには、危険度が高い出産に対応できる医療機関として都が指定する周産期母子医療センター（都内２２カ所）と同程度の機能を持つ２病院が参加。各病院は「手術が可能か」「ベッドに空きはあるか」など変更があるたびに入力し、どこが患者を受け入れられるか端末で見ることができる。
しかし、かかりつけ医が３病院に受け入れを要請したところ、いずれの病院も満床などを理由に拒んだという。都は、なぜ受け入れ可能となっていた病院が妊婦を受け入れられなかったのか、システムがうまく機能しなかった原因を調査する方針だ。
都によると、４日夕、江東区の女性が自宅で下痢や嘔吐（おうと）、頭痛を訴え、救急車でかかりつけの江東区内の産婦人科医院・五の橋産婦人科に運ばれた。かかりつけ医は脳内出血の疑いがあると診断し、午後７時ごろ、墨東病院に受け入れを依頼。しかし、断られ、他の搬送先を探した。
搬送先探しはかかりつけ医が担当し、７病院に断られ、午後７時４５分に再度、墨東病院に要請し、午後８時ごろに受け入れが決まった。その間、妊婦の症状は悪化し、墨東病院に着いたときには意識不明に陥っていたという。
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介護労働者の賃金、月２万円増へ 政府・与党が検討
2008年10月23日15時2分
介護労働者の処遇を改善するため、政府・与党は２３日、来年４月から介護報酬を引き上げる方針を固めた。引き上げ幅は月額２万円程度の賃金増につながるよう検討中。これに伴って介護保険料の上昇が避けられないが、負担軽減のため一部を公費で肩代わりする検討に入った。新経済対策に１２００億円程度を盛り込むことを軸に調整中だ。
ただ、こうした措置は保険方式の原則から外れるもので、介護保険制度の枠組みを揺るがしかねない面がある。
後期高齢者医療制度に大きな反発を招いたことや、物価上昇にもかかわらず来年は年金額が据え置きの見通し。こうした中で、高齢者の負担増を緩和するため、政府・与党は、保険料増加分の一定割合を国で肩代わりする方針だ。
介護報酬は３年ごとに改定される介護サービスの公定価格で、年内に報酬改定率が決まる見通し。改定率は、常勤の介護労働者１人あたりの月給が２万円程度増えるよう検討中。００年度に介護保険制度が導入され、これまで２度の改定では、いずれも引き下げられており、引き上げが実現すれば、初めて。
一方、介護財源の半分を賄う保険料は、高齢者の増加による給付費の伸びなどで上昇しており、１号被保険者（６５歳以上）の保険料は全国平均で当初の２９１１円から現在の４０９０円まで、約４割増えている。
介護労働者の人材確保は、低賃金などを背景に難しくなっている。平均賃金が、正社員で月額２０万８千円。離職率が０７年度は２１．６％と、全産業の１５．４％を大幅に上回っており、厚生労働省は今回の改定では報酬引き上げを検討していた。
報酬引き上げに伴う保険料増加分を、国が介護保険を運営する市町村などに補助し、個人の保険料負担増を抑える。１号被保険者だけでなく、４０～６４歳の２号被保険者も対象に含める方向だ。次の報酬改定までの３年間、段階的に軽減割合を変える案も検討されている。
政府は００年度の制度導入時に、６５歳以上の保険料を半年間全額免除、その後１年間半額とする特別対策を実施し、必要な費用７８５０億円を全額国費で補助したことがある。
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楽天が新サービス「あす楽」 食品・日用品など翌日配送
2008年10月23日19時18分
楽天は、生鮮食料品や日用品、家電製品などの商品を集め、翌日に全国配送するサービス「あす楽」を「楽天市場」に開設した。従来は一部商品が対象だったが、全国６００店の５万３千点を集約。ネット通販では最大規模となるという。全国１０地域に分け、配達地域に登録された商品を午前中に購入すれば、翌日に届く。配送料は各店舗ごとの設定で一部は無料になる。
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神戸市外郭団体、金融不安のあおりで８１００万円損失
2008.10.23 13:29
神戸・三宮とポートアイランドを結ぶポートライナーを運行する神戸市の外郭団体「神戸新交通」（中央区）が平成１９年度、サブプライムローン問題のあおりを受け、投資信託で８１００万円余りの「売却損」を出していたことが２３日、分かった。同社は「損失額は運用利益の範囲内に収まっており問題ない」としているが、市は「資産運用は安全性を確保してほしい」としている。
市や同社によると、同社は債券や投資信託などで資産を運用。売却損が出たのは１９年４月ごろに取得した有価証券で、今年３月に売却して約８１５９万円の損失が出た。売却損はこれが初めてといい、同社は「サブプライムローン問題で思わぬ影響を受けた」としている。運用については「他の有価証券の利息や配当（計約８６７９万円）の範囲内に収まっており、決算の手続きにも問題はない」という。
市によると、外郭団体の資産運用については市の出資割合などが異なるため統一的な指針はなく、各団体が独自の規定や方針に基づいて行っている。ただ、公益性などの観点から「確実で有利」（市調整課）な運用が原則となっており、他の約４５の外郭団体では元本保証の運用が主流。１９年度決算で売却損が出たのは同社だけだった。
市は、同社に運用の明確な規定がなかったことを受けて、規定を整備する必要性を指摘。同社は今年６月、リスク分散型の運用など、これまで内規としていた運用方針をあらためて明文化した。
市は「役所が多く出資している団体で、あまりリスクが多い運用は問題」としており、同社に対しても確実な運用を求めたいとしている。
神戸新交通は、市が約７７％を出資。ポートライナーや六甲ライナーを運行している。
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防衛力整備で新局立ち上げへ 内局に自衛官多数 防衛省方針
2008.10.23 01:41
このニュースのトピックス：国会
防衛省は２２日、背広組と制服組で構成する新たな防衛力整備に関する局を内部部局に設置する方針を固めた。背広組を中心とする内局の防衛計画課と制服組が中核をなす陸海空各幕僚監部の担当部署を統合する形で、業務を一元化する。各自衛隊の能力を糾合し主要装備の選定にあたるのが狙いで、内局内に自衛官（制服組）が多数を占める局が初めて誕生することになる。平成２２年度の設置を目指しており、同省はこうした方針を２３日にもまとめる省改革の「基本的な考え方」に盛り込む。
戦車、航空機など自衛隊予算の大半を占める主要装備品は陸海空各幕僚監部が別々に予算要求を作り、省内調整を経て決定される。各幕僚監部が前年並みの予算獲得を目指し交渉にあたるため、陸が４３～４４％、海・空が各２６～２８％のシェアは１０年以上変化しておらず、縦割りによる弊害が指摘されていた。
このため、首相官邸に設置された防衛省改革会議が７月に出した報告書は整備部門を１つに統合することで、省全体の視点に立った大胆な兵力配分を可能とすることを盛り込んだ。ただ、統合される整備部門を内局に置くか、装備品を調達する装備施設本部のような独立性の高い特別の機関とするかには踏み込まなかった。
省内調整では当初、一元化そのものに否定的だった陸海空各幕僚監部が内局への設置を主張。特別の機関とした場合、国会答弁などを担当する内局がその上位に立つ構造が残る可能性もあり、むしろ内局に優秀な人材を送り込むことで各自衛隊の意向を実現させる判断に傾いた。
自衛官の内局勤務は課長職にはつけないとする任用資格制限などで少数に限られてきたが、今回の改革で制限は廃止される予定で、防衛力整備を扱う新局ができれば人員で局員の多数を自衛官が占めることになる。このため、内局の一部が「防衛力整備本部」構想を提唱し、９月中を予定していた取りまとめがずれ込んでいた。
同省の組織再編では、内局の「運用企画局」が廃止され、自衛隊組織である統合幕僚監部に統合されるなどするが、今回の新局設置で背広、制服両組の混合化は劇的に進むことになる。
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インドへの原子力協力先送り 日印首脳会談
2008.10.22 22:31
２２日に開かれた日印首脳会談で、インドのシン首相は日本との原子力協力協定の締結を求めた。これに対し、麻生太郎首相は「核実験の凍結など継続が大切」と述べるにとどめ、核拡散防止条約（ＮＰＴ）非加盟国であるインドとの原子力協力協定の締結に消極的な姿勢を示した。インドは昨年７月に米国と協力協定を締結したことを受けて、各国が原発市場の開拓を競っている。だが、唯一の被爆国である日本は、ＮＰＴ非加盟国に対する原子力協力には抵抗感が強く、インドの原発市場参入の前提となる協定締結は先送りした。
インドはＮＰＴ非加盟国で、核兵器も保有している。だが、日本も含む世界４５カ国が参加する原子力供給国グループ（ＮＳＧ）は今年９月、インドに対し、例外措置として原子力協力を認めた。これによって、インドの原発市場は世界に開放された。
例外措置の条件としてインドに求められたのは、国際原子力機関（ＩＡＥＡ）による原発への査察受け入れと核実験の凍結継続、海外への技術移転禁止－の３点。麻生首相もこの日、新首相に対し、３点の実施を改めて求めた。
ただ、会談後の共同会見では協定締結について「考慮する必要がある」と述べ、将来の交渉に含みを持たせた。シン首相も「（日本）国民が安心できるペースでお願いしたい」と応じ、日本との協定締結を急がない姿勢を示した。
インドの原発市場をめぐっては、原発メーカーを保有する各国が開拓を急いでいる。フランスは原子力協定に調印し、ロシアは原発を４基輸出する方向だ。中国もインドとの首脳会談で原子力協力に合意した。日本は三菱重工業、日立製作所、東芝という世界でも有力な原発メーカー３社を抱えるが、協力協定を締結しない限り、巨大なインド原発市場には参入できない。
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労働協約権付与を検討 政府の公務員改革本部
2008.10.22 13:15
このニュースのトピックス：自民党
政府の国家公務員制度改革推進本部（本部長・麻生太郎首相）は２２日午前、都内で労使関係制度検討委員会の初会合を開いた。労働条件に関する労働協約締結権が与えられていない非現業職員や特別職の一部に対する労働協約締結権付与を検討、来年度に提言をまとめる方針だ。
検討委員会は学識経験者、労使双方の代表で構成。この日の会合には鳩山邦夫総務相や甘利明公務員制度改革担当相も出席した。
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【対馬が危ない】（上）韓国、不動産相次ぎ買収 (1/5ページ)
2008.10.21 08:49
古事記や日本書紀にも登場する「対馬」（長崎県）。国境を背負い、古来、防衛の要衝だった“防人の島”が、韓国パワーに席巻されている。韓国からの観光ラッシュに続き、島の不動産が続々と韓国資本に買い占められている。リゾートホテルに民宿、釣り宿…。過疎化に悩む対馬自身が本土よりはるかに近い韓国に傾斜せざるを得ないという複雑な事情もあり、豊富な資金力を武器に買収はこれからも激しさを増すだろう。韓国人観光客のなかには、自国領土と本気で信じ込んでいる人すらいる。日本人が気づかない間に、対馬は、安全保障、主権国家としての領土保全にかかわる深刻な事態にさらされつつある。（編集委員 宮本雅史）
自衛隊基地隣接地も
対馬空港に到着してまず耳にしたのは、島内の不動産が韓国勢に買い占められていることを危惧（きぐ）する声だった。それも１人や２人からではなかった。中でも、「海上自衛隊の基地に隣接する土地が韓国資本に買収された」という話に危機を直感した。
真偽を確かめるため、対馬市の中心街・厳原（いづはら）町から車で国道３８２号線を北上、海上自衛隊対馬防備隊本部がある同市美津島町竹敷を訪ねた。
竹敷地区はリアス式海岸特有の湾曲に富んだ入り江と無数の小島からなる浅茅（あそう）湾に面している。古くは遣新羅使が停泊するなど、船舶交通の中心だったが、明治１９（１８８６）年に、自然が作った海の迷路を生かして、水雷施設部が設置されたほか、日清戦争後はロシアに対する前進根拠地として海軍要港施設が整備されるなど、国土防衛の要害であり続けた。
余談になるが、近代に入り、ロシアやイギリスの対馬接近に脅威を感じた日本政府は、島内３０カ所に砲台を整備。特に昭和初期に作られた上対馬の豊砲台には、巡洋戦艦から航空母艦に転用された「赤城」の４０センチ連装砲塔を設置するなど、対馬海峡全体を防衛できるよう整備した。この豊砲台は太平洋戦争後、連合軍が解体を試みたが、あまりにも堅固過ぎ爆破するしか手段がなかったという。
◆強い島民の孤立感
「対馬は何県？」。こんな問いに「長崎県」と即答できる日本人は何人いるだろうか。「福岡県」と答える日本人も結構多い。
対馬市議会の国境離島活性化特別委委員長の作元義文市議（５８）はこう言う。
「対馬は行政圏は長崎だが、経済圏は福岡。区分けが中途半端なうえ、県庁所在地の長崎まで行くのに往復２万５０００円もかかるから、対馬の人間にとって、本土はますます遠くなる。本土の人も、交通の便が悪いこともあり、年々対馬から遠ざかっていく。対馬の存在感は薄い」
「福岡と対馬をむすぶ連絡船も、値上げをするところもあれば、便数を減らすところもあり、ますます距離が広がっていく」
聞けば聞くほど、本土と対馬の距離を感じる。
作元市議は島民の思いをこう代弁する。
「島民は、日本から見放されていると感じ、孤立感でいっぱい。だったら、少々のことには目をつぶってでも韓国と仲良くすればいい。福岡からは約１３０キロあるが釜山まではわずか５０キロだから親近感がある」
対馬は今、島民の心の隙間（すきま）を狙うかのように不動産の買い占めに奔走する韓国資本と、怒濤（どとう）のように押し寄せる韓国人観光客に右往左往するばかりだが、それでも韓国人、韓国資本を受け入れざるを得ない大きな課題を抱えている。
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喫煙者率２５・７％ １３年連続で過去最低 ＪＴ調査
2008.10.23 17:50
日本たばこ産業（ＪＴ）が２３日発表した平成２０年の全国たばこ喫煙者率調査によると、たばこを吸う成人の割合は、前年に比べて０・３ポイント減の２５・７％と１３年連続で過去最低となった。
男性の喫煙者率は０・７ポイント減の３９・５％で昭和４０年の調査開始以降、初めて４０％を割り込んだ。男性の喫煙人口は１９８４万人と推計され、２０００万人を初めて下回った。女性は０・２ポイント増の１２・９％だった。
地域別では、喫煙者率が最も高かったのは、男性が東北地方（４４・１％）、女性は北海道（２０・３％）。年代別では男性が４０代（４７・８％）女性が３０代（１９・３％）が最も高かった。
たばこを吸う人が減少している理由についてＪＴは「健康に対する意識の高まりや喫煙をめぐる規制の強化などが考えられる」と分析している。
調査は５月に実施し、２万人から回答を得た。
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喫煙中高生、３割がタバコ代月３０００円以上
2008.10.8 18:13
このニュースのトピックス：労働・雇用
喫煙している中高生の３割が月３０００円以上もたばこ代に使っている実態が厚生労働省研究班（主任研究者・大井田隆日大教授、尾崎米厚鳥取大准教授）の調査で分かった。また、１箱１０００円に値上げした場合、４割が「禁煙する」と答えている。
調査は昨年１２月～今年２月に全国の中学１３０校、高校１０９校を対象に実施。約９万人から回答を得た。１カ月に１日以上、喫煙する中高生は４５４６人（中学男子２・３％、女子２・０％、高校男子９・７％、女子４・７％）で、喫煙率は平成８年度の調査開始以来、最低だった。最高値は８年度の高校男子（３０・７％）。研究班は「家族の喫煙率低下の影響が大きい」としている。
喫煙者のうち直近１カ月のたばこ代は３０００円以上１万円未満が２２・３％。さらに１万円以上が６・８％もいた。「買わない」は１２・５％で、友人や先輩からもらったり、親のたばこを“拝借”して喫煙しているものとみられる。
国会で論議されているたばこ税の増税に関連して「１箱１０００円になったらどうするか」の問いには、喫煙者の４１・９％が「やめる」と答えたが、２８・６％が本数を減らしたり、安い銘柄に変えるなどして「喫煙を継続する」と回答するなど、若年層の一部には喫煙習慣が根付いていることも判明した。
研究班の大井田教授は「アルバイトの収入などで、中高生は成人よりもたばこに対して自由に使える金があるのかもしれない」と話している。
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柔道石井去就に斉藤監督期限決める
柔道男子日本代表の斉藤仁監督（４７）が、北京五輪男子１００キロ超級金メダルの石井慧（２１）に対し、１１月中旬までに、去就を決断するよう迫った。２１日、世界ジュニア選手権視察のためバンコクに出発。成田空港で「新しい強化体制がスタートするまでに決めさせないと」と言い切った。
１１月初旬から１２年ロンドン五輪へ向けた新たな強化体制が始動する予定。新体制の第１歩として１１月１６日の男子強化委員会でロンドン五輪に向けた選手の強化指定の見直しが行われる。石井がプロに転向するなら、それまでに一線から退くことを意味する「強化指定選手の辞退届」の提出が必要になる。斉藤監督はそこを決断の「期限」とした。
石井はプロ転向騒動後の７日の会見で、在学する国士舘大の卒業を目指しながら慎重に去就を決める意向を示していた。だが、欠場は濃厚ながら学生最後の大会となる全日本学生体重別団体優勝大会（１１月１、２日、尼崎市）終了後にも去就の決断を強いられることになりそうだ。
２０日に石井と会談した斉藤監督は「自分１人の力で五輪で勝ったようなことを言ってるんだから、たとえプロに行くとしても来年（４月）の全日本選手権を１人の力で勝ってからプロに行けと伝えた」。若き金メダリストの去就が、いよいよ最終局面を迎える。
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秋の園遊会：柔道の石井、陛下に“迷”応答
天皇、皇后両陛下主催の「秋の園遊会」が２３日、東京・元赤坂の赤坂御苑で開かれた。小雨の中、北京五輪の柔道男子１００キロ超級で金メダルを獲得した石井慧選手やソフトボールのエース、上野由岐子投手ら各界の功労者１６０６人が出席し、両陛下と歓談した。
陛下は石井選手に「（優勝）おめでとう」とねぎらった後、「次のオリンピックも目指されるのですか」と尋ねると、石井選手は「目指しません」と明言。陛下が「ほかの方向にいかれるわけね」と聞くと「はい、そうです」と答えた。ただ、懇談後に報道陣が再度、「陛下に次のオリンピックは目指さないと話しましたか」などと聞くと、石井選手は「そんなことは、口が裂けても言えないですね」と全面否定した。
陛下は上野選手とも懇談。陛下が「これからはどういうことが目標になりますか」と尋ねると、上野選手は「（２０１２年ロンドン五輪でソフトボールが除外されるが）２０１６年にまた復活できるように活動していきたいと思います」と話した。【真鍋光之】
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「次の五輪は目指しません」 柔道・石井選手、天皇陛下に園遊会で断言
2008.10.23 18:16
「ロンドンは目指しません」－。北京五輪柔道男子１００キロ超級金メダリスト、石井慧（国士舘大）が２３日、東京・元赤坂の赤坂御苑で開かれた天皇、皇后両陛下ご主催の秋の園遊会に出席。２０１２年五輪について、天皇陛下に明言した。
天皇陛下からお言葉をかけられた石井は、陛下から「次のオリンピックも目指されるんですか」と質問されると、「目指しません」と断言。陛下からは「今度の（北京での）優勝がいい契機となって、よりよい道を歩まれるように願っています」と励まされた。
また出た“お騒がせ発言”だが、石井は２０日に恩師の斉藤仁全日本男子監督から放言を厳しくいさめられたばかり。そのためか園遊会後、報道陣には「柔道界の後輩とか、国士舘の“ブラザー”とかが上がってきて、自分が出られないかもしれないし…。自分が負けてしまうかもしれないので、『わからない』と言いました」と説明した。
「目指さないとはっきり言ったが」と聞かれると、言ったことを忘れたのか、まずいと思ったのか「口が裂けても言えないです」と否定した。
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Singapore oil trading almost halves
By Javier Blas in London and John Burton in Singapore
Published: October 21 2008 23:01 | Last updated: October 21 2008 23:01
Oil trading in Singapore almost halved in September as the financial crisis and slowing regional demand combined to keep speculators away from the world’s third largest energy trading hub.
The sudden drop in September’s trading came amid slowing economic growth in Asia, the world’s engine of commodities demand, as exported-oriented nations, including China, suffered from a reduction in overseas orders.
The credit crisis has hit the private, bilateral over-the-counter derivatives market that is the cornerstone of Asia’s oil and commodities trading. The region, in contrast to New York and London, does not have a prominent commodities exchange or clearing house, exacerbating counterparty risk. Market participants fear that the other side of their deals could default on obligations.
Observed trading in OTC oil derivatives fell in September by 44 per cent compared with year-ago levels, according to Platts, the pricing agency. Traders said the downward trend was continuing.
Jason Feer, Singapore-based vice-president of Argus, the pricing agency, said the speculative end of the energy derivatives market was particularly affected.
“You need big credit lines to trade aggressively. But credit lines to [speculators] are being curtailed. The OTC trading volume has dropped substantially.”
The fall, which traders said was affecting investment banks in particular, provides a gloomy backdrop for the annual Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference, the main gathering of oil and commodity traders in the region, which opened on Tuesday night.
A senior oil trader said: “There is a lot of pain in the market.”
The International Energy Agency, the western nations’ oil watchdog, warned this month that refiners who rely on letters of credit – a common credit instrument to finance trading – were finding these increasingly difficult to obtain and at ever higher interest rates.
On top of those problems, Asia’s commodities markets have been hit by the slowdown in Chinese economic growth to 9 per cent in the third quarter, the lowest rate in almost five years. Michael Buchanan, chief Asia economist at Goldman Sachs, said: “I think that the slowdown has been faster than the commodity markets were expecting.”
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