Insight: Cool heads will spot the foe
By John Plender
Published: October 28 2008 17:37 | Last updated: October 28 2008 17:37
In the heat of the financial battle, perceptions and priorities become too easily skewed. Exhibit one, in support of this assertion, is the handwringing of the Group of Seven over the appreciation of the yen, which is perceived to be a new threat to financial stability.
The logic here is surely upside down. The yen has been undervalued for years and the undervaluation has been exacerbated by the activity of carry traders who borrow in the cheap, low-interest Japanese currency (or the derivative market equivalent) to invest in higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian or New Zealand dollar.
True, the surge in the value of the yen, as these carry trades unwind, hurts the export sector on which the Japanese economy has been overdependent for growth. This has knocked the stock market, which in turn shrinks banks’ capital.
Yet as Brian Reading of Lombard Street Research argues, the yen turnround is in reality a boon because it helps reduce the international financial imbalances that are at the root of the present malaise. With almost $1,000bn of foreign currency reserves, the country hardly needs more. Furthermore, the Japanese stock market plunge is putting pressure on the government to ease a fiscal policy that has been too tight for too long. In other words, these market movements are important parts of a necessary adjustment mechanism.
So, too, with the plunge in sterling. It might not be comfortable but it facilitates the rebalancing of an economy where growth has been driven by overindebted households and corporate profits have been too heavily dependent on the financial sector’s dangerous gameplaying. Britain needs the opposite adjustment to Japan. Exporters must now provide more of the growth impetus as households rebuild their savings. Both countries, though, will require activist fiscal policy to do some of the work.
Much the same applies in the US. There, too, banking became an overbloated industry in the credit bubble and now needs to shrink. Yet the sudden re-emergence of the dollar as a safe haven currency threatens to slow down a rebalancing process that ought to be contributing to the unwinding of global financial imbalances.
A real danger lies in the abruptness of the market swings. Such extreme volatility is inevitable after a credit market aberration of extreme proportions. Among other things, it reflects deleveraging across the global financial system as borrowings and the economic leverage inherent in derivative instruments are reduced. This can lead to self-feeding market plunges. It can, however, also serve a purpose by reminding traders of eternal financial verities.
The carry trade, for example, is in reality a high-risk currency mismatch trade. Because of the attenuation of the credit cycle in a period of general monetary laxity, zero interest rates in Japan and excess Asian and petro-currency savings, the risks failed to deter traders who thought they had found a free lunch.
The bill has now come in. Traders in hedge funds and on banks’ proprietary trading desks are being disciplined by a market that is returning to normal. In doing so it will instil better behaviour – for a time.
This line of argument should not be taken too far. In 1929, Andrew Mellon, the US Treasury secretary, declared the crash would have the beneficial effect of purging the system and encouraging people to live a more moral life. That laisser-faire attitude helped turn an economic crisis into a slump.
A similar attitude was shown by Yasushi Mieno, the Bank of Japan governor, after the bursting of the Japanese bubble in 1990.
The other big risk after a bubble is an excessive regulatory response which inhibits bankers’ ability to service the needs of industry and commerce in innovative ways. Re-regulation is now the order of the day but it is too early to know how far it will go. In the end, it is a political question. The critical factor, a central banker suggested to me yesterday, is how far unemployment rises. That is surely right.
John Plender is an FT columnist and chairman of Quintain plc
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World will struggle to meet oil demand
By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London
Published: October 28 2008 23:32 | Last updated: October 28 2008 23:32
Output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.
Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.
The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term demand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.
The IEA, the oil watchdog, forecasts that China, India and other developing countries’ demand will require investments of $360bn each year until 2030.
The agency says even with investment, the annual rate of output decline is 6.4 per cent.
The decline will not necessarily be felt in the next few years because demand is slowing down, but with the expected slowdown in investment the eventual effect will be magnified, oil executives say.
“The future rate of decline in output from producing oilfields as they mature is the single most important determinant of the amount of new capacity that will need to be built globally to meet demand,” the IEA says.
The watchdog warned that the world needed to make a “significant increase in future investments just to maintain the current level of production”.
The battle to replace mature oilfields’ output could even offset the decline in demand growth, which has given the industry – already struggling to find enough supply to meet needs, especially from China – a reprieve in the past few months.
The IEA predicted in its draft report, due to be published next month, that demand would be damped, “reflecting the impact of much higher oil prices and slightly slower economic growth”.
It expects oil consumption in 2030 to reach 106.4m barrels a day, down from last year’s forecast of 116.3m b/d.
The projections could yet be revised lower because the draft report was written a month ago, before the global financial crisis deepened after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
All the increase in oil demand until 2030 comes from emerging countries, while consumption in developed countries declines.
As a result, the share of rich countries in global demand will drop from last year’s 59 per cent to less than half of the total in 2030.
This is the clearest indication yet that the focus of the industry on the demand – not just the supply – side is moving away from the US, Europe and Japan, towards emerging nations.
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Why Asia stays calm in the storm
By Kishore Mahbubani
Published: October 28 2008 19:37 | Last updated: October 28 2008 19:37
What does the Asian silence on the financial crisis really mean? Does it mean silent gloating, with a heavy dose of schadenfreude? Does it signify terror that Asian economies will also be blown away? Or does it reflect a sober calculation that calm and steady heads are required in such a storm? Amazingly, in the thousands of words spun in the incestuous western discourse on this crisis, little attention has been paid to Asian views, even though the calm and steady responses of China, India and Japan, the three anchor Asian economies, provide hope that there may be some pillars of stability in the swirling storm.
There is little gloating in Asia, even though some would be justified. In many ways, US and European policymakers are doing the opposite of what they advised Asian policymakers to do in 1997-98: do not rescue failing banks, raise interest rates, balance your budget. Millions of Indonesians and Thais would have been better off if their governments had been permitted to do what western governments are doing now. An apology from the west to Asia would not be inappropriate.
Nor are the Asians terrified. They learnt many valuable lessons from their financial crisis in 1998: do not liberalise the financial sector too quickly, borrow in moderation, save in earnest, take care of the real economy, invest in productivity, focus on education. Hence, while America was busy creating a financial house of cards, Asians focused on their real economies. This explains why the latest International Monetary Fund growth rate estimates for 2008 and 2009 for China are 9.7 and 9.3 per cent; and for India, 7.9 and 6.9 per cent respectively.
Equally importantly, Asian minds have never been captured by the strange ideological belief that markets know best and government should step aside. Most Asian policymakers are puzzled by former US president Ronald Reagan’s statement: “Government is not a solution to our problem, government is the problem.” Alan Greenspan, former US Federal Reserve chairman, only recently admitted the folly of his ways when he acknowledged that lending institutions could not regulate themselves. By contrast, virtually all Asian governments believe that the virtues of the “invisible hand” in the market have to be balanced by the “visible hand” of good governance. This Asian emphasis on good governance may serve as a real asset in the storm.
In the past, Asian governments expected western counterparts to be role models of good governance. One story illustrates how times have changed. This year, a European banker consulted the Reserve Bank of India to learn how to get a banking licence in India. He was briefed on the conditions and told that the Indian authorities would also assess his regulator. The European banker smiled and said: “No problem. We have excellent regulation.” The Indian officer replied: “After subprime, we are not sure of US regulation; after Northern Rock, British regulation; after Société Générale, French regulation and after UBS, Swiss regulation.” In short, the gold standard that the west assumed it had in the field of regulation has vanished. Asians realise that they must forge their own standard. Fortunately, there will be no rush to overregulate. Tony Tan from the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation said: “We should guard against overregulation and protectionism and a retreat from globalisation.”
His comments reflect an Asian concern: that the Americans and Europeans, hitherto the custodians of the liberal international economic order, will retreat into protectionism. Asian societies also know they are becoming the biggest beneficiaries of globalisation and must assume greater responsibility in stabilising the economic system.
As the world’s greatest emerging economic power, China has acted remarkably responsibly in this crisis. It has received with polite dignity the western bankers coming cap in hand to seek money. It did not remind them that barely a year ago many of the same bankers had castigated it for its conservatism in opening its financial sector. That caution has been vindicated. More importantly, China has continued to buy US Treasury bills at a steady pace to reassure the market it has not lost faith in them.
The Asian governments demonstrated their calm at the Asia-Europe meeting in Beijing last weekend. The premiers of China and India, Wen Jiabao and Manmohan Singh, gave thoughtful speeches. Sadly, the western media barely reported them. Mr Wen emphasised the development of the real economy; Mr Singh said: “In this age of globalisation we have a global economy but it is not supported by a global polity to provide effective governance.” Asian leaders have good advice to offer. The west should pay heed.
While the US and European publics are losing faith in free trade, Asian economies continue to work on free trade agreements. Few westerners are aware China and the Association of South East Asian Nations have concluded an agreement that will create the world’s largest FTA, with 1.7bn people. Japan and India have similar FTAs with Asean. This growing interdependence will act as a pillar of stability and growth for the global economy.
The really good news is that few Asians have lost their optimism about the future. They have no illusions about the crisis but are confident that they remain on the right trajectory to deliver the Asian century. This is why the key Asian economies will react calmly in this storm. Confidence in the future is a great asset in such times.
The writer, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (National University of Singapore), has just published The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East
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Web guidelines aim at repressive governments
By Mure Dickie in Beijing and Richard Waters in Los Angeles
Published: October 29 2008 04:22 | Last updated: October 29 2008 04:22
Google, Microsoft and Yahoo have signed up to a set of voluntary guidelines that are designed to reduce the risk that their actions lead to human rights abuses in China and other countries. The principles, written in conjunction with two human rights groups, are a reaction to the fierce public criticism that all three faced two years ago for bowing to various degrees to Chinese internet controls.
The guidelines call for internet and communication companies to comply with censorship and other strictures only when they have received a formal legal request. Beijing currently bases its censorship regime on vaguely worded regulations that encourage local internet companies to be conservative in their self-censorship and leave officials with wide latitude to punish companies and individuals who fail to fall in line.
By forcing adherence to legal rules, the principles are designed to increase transparency and could eventually narrow the range of censorship and other abuses, Microsoft said. However, critics said that the guidelines are not binding, and would have little force if other internet and communications companies do not also sign up to them.
Rebecca MacKinnon, an assistant professor at the Journalism & Media Studies Centre of the University of Hong Kong who participated in the drafting of the initiative, said it reflected an awareness among internet companies of the impact on their global reputations of their conduct in markets such as China.
”What they are recognising is that you are only seen [by users] as trustworthy as the least trustworthy thing you have ever done,” Ms MacKinnon said.
If widely implemented, the initiative could pose a challenge to China’s broadly successful effort to ”manage” the internet by barring access to content judged politically or socially suspect and by monitoring users and cracking down on those deemed to be trying to challenge to the dominance of the ruling Communist party.
Chinese censors will pay particular attention to the pledge by participating companies to ”protect” users who are ”confronted with government demands, laws and regulations to suppress freedom of expression, remove content or otherwise limit access to information and ideas in a manner inconsistent with internationally recognised laws and standards”.
Shi Tao, a Chinese journalist, was jailed for 10 years in 2005 for ”leaking state secrets” after he made public details of a propaganda department effort to tighten media censorship around the anniversary of a crackdown on demonstrators in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.
Mr Shi was tracked down by Chinese authorities with the help of information supplied by Yahoo, the US internet portal.
It is unclear whether the initiative would prevent repetition of such cases, given the difficulty of insisting that China-based staff defy what remains an authoritarian government. Yahoo’s China business is now run by Yahoo-invested local internet group Alibaba, which has in the past made clear that privacy issues would not stop it cooperating fully with any future investigations into users of its email services. Alibaba declined to comment on Tuesday.
However, Ms MacKinnon said that the initiative would at least make international companies more aware of the human rights issues raised by operating in countries such as China, while also exposing their conduct to regular public review.
”The proof will, of course, be in the implementation,” Ms MacKinnon said.
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Warsaw to speed euro adoption
By Jan Cienski in Warsaw
Published: October 29 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 29 2008 02:00
Poland's government yesterday spelled out the country's path to adopting the euro by 2012, part of a series of moves designed to help calm spooked investors who have been retreating from the Polish zloty as emerging market currencies are buffeted by the global financial crisis.
The plan calls for the government to begin talks on amending the constitution by early next year - the current document allows only Poland's central bank to set monetary policy. Later in 2009, Poland would enter the ERM-2 European exchange rate mechanism, and the final exchange rate between the euro and the zloty would be set in the summer of 2011. Poland would be admitted to the common currency by January 1 2012.
"We want to retain an ambitious calendar of readying Poland by the end of 2011. We realise we will need the co-operation of the opposition in order to change the constitution," said Donald Tusk, the prime minister.
Without the support of the opposition Law and Justice party, Mr Tusk lacks the necessary two-thirds vote in parliament to amend the constitution. Mr Tusk held an unusually cordial meeting on Monday with Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the euro sceptical leader of Law and Justice, who said he was still not persuaded of the need for a speedy adoption of the common currency, but would back a referendum on the question.
Yesterday Mr Tusk's cabinet met with Lech Kaczynski, Poland's president, and the prime minister said that for the first time he had heard "words which allow me to believe that this project will be accepted, or at least be seriously treated by the president."
Mr Kaczynski, who has not been enthusiastic about an early entry into the euro zone, said it was a matter worthy of "deep consideration". The two leaders, who have spent the better part of the last year sniping at each other, were remarkably polite.
The Kaczynski twins have warned in the past that joining the euro would push up prices, especially for the pensioners and poor who form an important part of the party's supporters, and could slow economic growth.
However, the impact of the financial crisis, which saw the zloty dive in tandem with the troubled Hungarian forint in spite of protests from Polish politicians that economic conditions were very different in Poland, seems to have concentrated minds. A recent poll shows 70 per cent of voters favouring the common currency.
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Hungary gets $25.1 bn rescue package
WASHINGTON, October 28 – The International Monetary Fund, the European Union and World Bank on Tuesday agreed to a $25.1bn economic rescue package for Hungary to bolster confidence in its economy hit by the global financial crisis.
The IMF said it had reached an agreement with Hungary for a $15.7bn (€12.5bn) loan programme, while the European Union stood ready with an additional $8.1bn in financing and the World Bank another $1.3bn. The IMF loan will be disbursed over 17 months.
It is the biggest international rescue package for an emerging market economy since the start of the current global crisis and is the first for an EU-member country. Last week the IMF approved a $2.1bn deal for Iceland and a $16.5bn programme for Ukraine.
The IMF said its board could approve the Hungary deal in early November under emergency rapid-response procedures activated earlier this month as the credit market crisis spread from the United States and Western Europe.
“The Hungarian authorities have developed a comprehensive policy package that will bolster the economy’s near-term stability and improve its long-term growth potential,” Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF managing director, said.
“At the same time it is designed to restore investor confidence and alleviate the stress experienced in recent weeks in the Hungarian financial markets,” he added.
The IMF financing is more than 10 times Hungary’s IMF quota, above the limit of three times the quota for countries seeking to borrow. Each IMF member is assigned a quota based on its size in the world economy, which determines its financial commitment to the fund, its voting power, and has a bearing on how much it can borrow from the global lender.
Hungary’s economy has been battered by the financial crisis because its banking system is heavily exposed to foreign financing at a time when investors are pulling back from developing economies worldwide.
Mr Strauss-Kahn said the programme should improve Hungary’s fiscal balance and safeguard its financial sector.
“Specifically, the package includes measures to maintain adequate domestic and foreign currency liquidity, as well as strong levels of capital, for the banking system,” he said.
“Important measures in the fiscal area will reduce government-financing needs and ensure longer-term debt sustainability,” Mr Strauss-Kahn added.
Hungary’s financial markets firmed on Tuesday on hopes of the imminent financial help from the IMF, but its prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, warned the central European country is likely to slide into recession next year.
Meanwhile, the World Bank said it was working with Hungary to tackle longer-term structural problems in its economy.
“Proposed World Bank assistance would support the design and implementation of reforms in key areas, such as the financial sector, fiscal management, and social sector reforms,” said Orsalia Kalantzopoulos, World Bank director for Central Europe and Baltic countries.
“These measures would support the country’s longer-term stabilisation and economic restructuring,” she added.
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London faces finance jobs shake-out
By Bob Sherwood, London and South-East Correspondent
Published: October 29 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 29 2008 02:00
London is set to lose about 194,000 jobs in the next two years as the credit crunch takes its toll on the financial services sector, according to a leading economic consultancy.
Oxford Economics predicts employment in the capital will be hit more than in any other UK region. Employment will plunge by 97,000 next year - a drop of 2.1 per cent - and by a similar amount in 2010, with total London jobs falling from more than 4.71m this year to just over 4.51m.
The report also warns that recovery will be a "slow process" that could be hindered by stricter regulation.
"The escalation of the credit crunch will drive a rapid deterioration in employment prospects over the coming year . . . Financial services will see the deepest job cuts, with losses in the region of 40,000 forecast [in 2009], but most other sectors will be affected," the report says. The consultancy expects employment in business support services to decline in 2009 for the first time in seven years, with further job cuts likely in the following year as the impact of the financial services downturn filters through.
The City will lose more than 35,000 jobs, a decline of more than 10 per cent, with employment in the Square Mile falling from 331,000 to less than 296,000, according to the consultancy.
Tower Hamlets, the borough that includes Canary Wharf, would see more than 18,000 jobs go over the next two years. More than 39,000 new financial services jobs have been created in Tower Hamlets since the start of this decade.
But Oxford Economics says: "With a heavy dependence on financial services, which accounts for a third of the borough's jobs, Tower Hamlets is expected to see a sharp drop in employment of more than 8 per cent over the next two years."
It forecasts that the downturn will also hit retailers, with only the public sector avoiding falling levels of employment.
In recent years London has seen international inflows averaging 76,000 a year of migrant workers, attracted by better employment prospects. But Oxford Economics says that with employment set to fall sharply over the coming two years, potential migrants are likely to be discouraged from coming to the capital.
Meanwhile, the poor prospects for construction, retail and hospitality, which employ many migrant workers, may encourage existing migrants to return home, the consultancy believes.
London is "likely to underperform until 2011", when its predictions show employment starting to rise again.
However, it adds: "With the government taking a stake in several banks there will inevitably be a greater focus - and possibly greater regulation - on the sector, which could impair its ability to replicate its performance over the early part of this decade."
The research also suggests the unemployment benefit claimant rate will increase from 3 per cent to 4.2 per cent in the same time, although the International Labour Organisation unemployment rate, which covers all of those out of work, at present stands at 7.5 per cent in the capital.
Meanwhile, Oxford Economics pointed to news of job losses over the past six months from banks including Lehman Brothers, Barclays, Credit Suisse, UBS, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Royal Bank of Scotland.
It said: "In total these announcements related to just under 3,000 jobs, less than might otherwise be expected given the scale of the problems. But there is significant anecdotal evidence of firms choosing not to replace staff who have resigned, while it is notable that there has been almost a complete lack of news of new job creation."
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High street sales fall in October
By Norma Cohen
Published: October 28 2008 12:22 | Last updated: October 28 2008 12:22
UK high street sales fell in October for the seventh consecutive month, according to the CBI’s latest Distributive Trades Survey, with little improvement expected next month.
Car dealers in particular are facing a tough climate with not one of the firms surveyed reporting a rise in either actual or expected sales or orders. The survey found that 87 per cent of those surveyed had sales volumes below those of last year, with 83 per cent saying that volumes are poor for this time of the year.
Sales of vehicles have been falling steadily since June, the survey showed. Car manufacturers in Britain, faced with a sharp fall-off in demand, have begun placing workers on short hours in a sign of how the credit crunch is spreading through the wider economy.
The broader CBI survey of retailers found a balance of 35 per cent of those surveyed described sales volumes for this time of year as poor.
“Shoppers face competing pressures on their wallets and are spooked by worries over job losses and the slowing economy,” said Andy Clarke, Asda’s retail director who is chairman of the CBI’s distributive trades panel and retail. ”The sector looks to endure a very challenging run-up to Christmas.”
The majority of sectors covered by the survey saw sales delcine compared with those of a year ago. In particular, 80 per cent of specialist food retailers reported lower sales volumes, a sign consumers are shopping at the bargain end of the grocery range. Also, 79 per cent of durable goods retailers – whose products are often purchased in connection with moving house – reported lower sales.
However, some sectors are reporting higher sales. Among these are retailers of footwear and leather goods as well as retailers of hardware, china and DIY goods.
Only 2 per cent of wholesalers said sales volumes were higher, or expected to be higher. Roughly a third said sales volumes are lower and 45 per cent said they expect sales to be lower in November.
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Slump hits London’s richest homeowners
Homeowners in some of London’s wealthiest areas are feeling the full impact of the property slump, data published by the Land Registry yesterday showed. Last month, house prices in Kensington and Chelsea - which were rising at an annualised rate of 33.5 per cent a year ago - fell by 2.0 per cent, having fallen by 1.1 per cent the previous month. Many of the areas now showing declines are those that have been home to high-flying financiers whose careers may be in doubt as leading financial firms cut staff.
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Russian trade body resurrected
By Alex Barker in London and Catherine Belton in Moscow
Published: October 29 2008 03:48 | Last updated: October 29 2008 03:48
A dormant body to promote trade and investment between Russia and the UK was resurrected on Tuesday as London and Moscow attempted to put aside political differences and “open a new chapter” in relations.
Lord Mandelson, business secretary, pledged to reorganise and strengthen the bilateral trade body after attending its first meeting in Moscow since 2002.
“I think there is a real willingness to re-engage,” said Lord Mandelson after talks with Igor Shuvalov, first deputy prime minister, and business representatives.
While acknowledging “political difficulties”, the business secretary predicted that the time had come for the two countries to “turn the page”.
Trade has remained relatively strong between the UK and Russia in spite of tensions over the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, the conflict in Georgia and the dispute over TNK-BP, the joint Russian-UK oil venture.
Lord Mandelson sees the “UK-Russian joint steering committee” as both a formal structure to resolve and address disputes and a regular forum to champion trade and investment.
The body will meet annually, with the deputy prime minister and business secretary attending, while trade ministers will hold more frequent meetings.
Officials said the committee, which has been in abeyance for about six years, had suffered from a heavy bureaucracy and needed to be slimmed down to speed up decision making.
Tuesday’s meeting, attended by a business delegation led by Richard Lambert of the CBI employers’ body, included reassurances over Britain’s openness to Russian investment and an agreement to hold the next meeting in London.
Lord Mandelson’s trip to Russia has come amidst close scrutiny of his dealings with Oleg Deripaska, a Russian metals billionaire. The business secretary strongly denies giving or receiving any favours from Mr Deripaska.
Speaking ahead of the launch of the steering group, Lord Mandelson told the Financial Times that it was “an indication on [Russia’s] part that they don’t want to prolong or exacerbate the tensions between us and they certainly don’t want to interfere with our economic and trade relationship”.
Serious disagreements remain over the death of Mr Litvinenko and Georgia. But one of the main sources of tension in bilateral business relations was resolved earlier this year. BP and its Russian billionaire partners signed off on an amicable agreement in September that aimed to end a battle for control of TNK-BP, which had provoked fears about the UK’s biggest investment in Russia and the overall business climate.
BP conceded a degree of control to its partners but kept its 50 per cent stake in the venture after Robert Dudley, the BP-backed chief executive, was forced to leave Russia blaming “official harassment”.
The two sides agreed to replace Mr Dudley with an independent chief executive, who is expected to be named in December, and to appoint independent directors to the company’s board.
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Volkswagen driven to the top spot by shock share price surge
By Richard Milne and Kate Burgess in London
Published: October 29 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 29 2008 02:00
Volkswagen briefly became the world's largest company by market capitalisation yesterday after an extraordinary share price surge that raised fears that hedge funds and other traders could collapse after betting on a fall in the stock.
The continued surge - triggered by the revelation on Sunday that Porsche had a much larger interest in the carmaker than many traders had realised - sharpened criticism over the level of disclosure and regulation in German capital markets.
VW's share price rose 82 per cent to €945 following Monday's 147 per cent jump, leaving it with a market capitalisation of about €287bn ($364bn), making it the world's second-largest company ahead of Wal-Mart, General Electric and Microsoft.
At its intra-day peak of €1,005, its market capitalisation exceeded Exxon, the US oil company. This has raised fears over a "squeeze" on traders betting on a fall in Volkswagen shares through short selling - the practice of selling borrowed shares in hope of profiting by buying them back later at a lower price and returning shares to the lender.
A manager at a large hedge fund said: "The losses will be extreme. I don't think it is going to bring down a big fund, but it will probably bring down some small ones."
The head of Germany's largest fund manager accused Porsche - the largest investor in VW - of acting against the interest of other shareholders.
Klaus Kaldemorgen, the head of DWS, which is a shareholder in VW and owned by Deutsche Bank, said: "I criticise heavily that a company like Porsche is manipulating VW shares in an irresponsible manner."
Porsche did not respond to calls asking for comment on Mr Kaldemorgen's statement, but it told Reuters yesterday: "We vehemently reject the accusation of share price manipulation."
There was widespread expectation in the markets that the huge rise would push some fragile hedge funds - who bet on VW's shares falling - to collapse with losses estimated at €20bn-€30bn.
Several hedge funds and banks denied they had any large exposure to VW. Morgan Stanley, whose shares fell 16 per cent yesterday, said it had "virtually no exposure", while people close to Goldman Sachs said rumours the bank had lost money were "unfounded".
Bafin, the German regulator, repeated its comments from last week that it was monitoring the share price movements.
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Shortenfreude
Published: October 28 2008 19:50 | Last updated: October 28 2008 19:50
Schadenfreude more than sympathy is likely to greet the plight of short sellers caught on the wrong end of a bet about the direction of Volkswagen’s share price. Their scramble to cover losses sent the European carmaker’s price so high that on Tuesday morning it was – briefly but still ridiculously – the largest company in the world by market capitalisation. Some hedge funds may fail because they have incurred such big losses, but not many people will be weeping at that. The real cause for concern is the opacity of the German stock market.
The immediate cause of the problem was Sunday’s revelation that Porsche, which has been engaged in a creeping takeover of VW for the past three years, controlled not just 35 per cent of the group as had been known, but 74.1 per cent, through an equity stake of 42.6 per cent and 31.5 per cent in cash-settled options, which it did not have to disclose. Taken with the 20.1 per cent owned by the state of Lower Saxony, that left a free float of just 5.8 per cent, barely above the 5 per cent required for the company to remain in Germany’s blue-chip Dax index.
Porsche said it had revealed the extent of its control both directly and through derivatives so that hedge funds could unwind their positions “in an orderly manner”. But there can be no orderliness in a system of financial regulation that allows investors in general to operate on the basis of such misleading information for so long. The volatility of the VW share price shows that clearly enough: from Friday’s close of about €210, it touched €1,005 on Tuesday morning before finishing the day at about €800.
The episode has exposed a woeful lack of transparency in the German market. For Bafin, the financial regulator, to talk about looking at VW share price movements is to miss the point. The broader question is the ability of any investor to build up a significant stake in a publicly quoted company without having to inform the market. In July, the privately owned car parts company Schaeffler mounted a hostile takeover of its bigger rival Continental, on the back of a derivative-based stake of 36 per cent acquired while no one noticed.
Several European markets are reviewing their rules about the use of covert stake-building in takeovers. Disclosure of derivative positions above 1 per cent in a company that is subject to a bid is the route the UK has adopted. Different takeover regimes will require different answers. But they must all be based on the principle that investors deserve transparency – and the knowledge that if they think it is lacking they will trade elsewhere.
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The Short View: Market power
By John Authers
Published: October 28 2008 23:30 | Last updated: October 28 2008 23:30
Sometimes markets give governments no choice. Traders judged that last week’s savage sell-off of all world currencies against the yen left the Japanese currency far higher than policymakers could stand.
They heard the G7 announce that it was concerned by volatility in the yen, and heard a clear hint that intervention was possible. They heard Japanese regulators announce that they were bringing forward to this week rules that would make it harder to sell stocks short. They saw reports in the Japanese press that the Bank of Japan could act directly by cutting interest rates on Friday.
And so, simultaneously, without a clear trigger, traders piled out of the yen and into stocks. Overlay a graph of yesterday’s moves in the S&P 500, which gained more than 10 per cent, with a graph showing the number of yen to the euro, which rose by more than 11 per cent at one point, and it is hard to tell the difference. Every downtick for the yen was matched by a rise in US stocks.
A rate cut would help Japanese stocks. A strong yen is damaging for exporters, while lower rates, even though they start at only 0.5 per cent, should aid the stock market.
Does this rebound signal that the stocks are ready to stage a true bear market rally? The low for the S&P of 839.8, set on October 10, has held for 12 trading days. It was nearly breached before yesterday’s bounce. That could mean a bottom has been hit for now.
But forex volatility this extreme is unhealthy. It obstructs functioning markets.
A test may come with the Federal Reserve’s meeting on monetary policy on Wednesday afternoon. The market expects that the Fed will cut the target Fed Funds rate by half a percentage point to 1 per cent. Anything else would be a nasty shock. If the Fed delivers as hoped, the reaction will give a strong clue on whether the rally can continue.
-------------------------
Japan may follow Fed in rate cuts
Reuters Hideyuki Sano and Jason Subler
Japan signalled on Wednesday it could follow the United States in cutting interest rates this week to protect the world's two largest economies from the global financial crisis. Skip related content
A huge rescue package for Hungary underlined the pain the worst financial upheaval in 80 years was causing as policymakers around the world scrambled to contain the economic damage.
The Bank of Japan will consider cutting rates at a policy meeting on Friday but will watch market conditions before deciding, according to a source informed on the matter.
Bets on a quarter-point cut to 0.25 percent snapped the recent surge in the yen, which has hurt exporters and helped hammer Japanese shares.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut U.S. rates by at least half a point on Wednesday to 1 percent, the lowest level since June 2004.
Japan's Nikkei share average, which fell to a 26-year low this week, set the tone for the region's stock markets with a 6.4 percent jump during the morning session that built on Tuesday's gain of more than 6 percent.
The rally followed gains on Wall Street, which buoyed by Fed rate cut hopes, had its second-best day ever on Tuesday.
"Although cutting rates might not have much stimulative effect on the economy, it's hard for the bank to continue resisting action when financial markets are so unstable," said Koichi Haji, chief economist at NLI Research Institute in Tokyo.
"Still, a rate cut would send a message to the world that Japan is cooperating with other nations in tackling the financial crisis," he said. "Now that the news is out, markets would be hugely disappointed if the BOJ didn't cut rates."
HUNGARY BAILOUT
Governments have pledged about $4 trillion (2.4 trillion pounds) to support banks and restart money markets to try to stem the crisis set off by the bursting of the bubble in the U.S. housing market, but a growing number of governments have had to look for help of their own as the financial woes ripple outwards.
In the latest sign of the extent of the damage, the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and World Bank agreed to a $25.1 billion economic rescue package for Hungary.
The IMF will lend Hungary $15.7 billion, while the European Union stands ready with an additional $8.1 billion in financing and the World Bank another $1.3 billion.
The IMF is lending Hungary more than 10 times its quota, or subscription, in the fund -- way above the usual limit of three times for countries in trouble.
"The Hungarian authorities have developed a comprehensive policy package that will bolster the economy's near-term stability and improve its long-term growth potential," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in a statement.
"At the same time it is designed to restore investor confidence and alleviate the stress experienced in recent weeks in the Hungarian financial markets," he added.
The agreement comes after Iceland, a high-profile victim of the global credit crisis, raised interest rates by 6 percentage points to 18 percent in an attempt to defend its currency.
Iceland has been driven close to collapse by bank failures, and the central bank said the dramatic rate rise was part of a deal struck with the IMF for a $2 billion loan.
The Fed said late on Tuesday that it had established a $15 billion temporary currency swap line with New Zealand to address pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets, the latest in a number of such swap lines.
Even with such government efforts, the financial crisis could reduce the hedge-fund industry to as little as a third of its current size, billionaire investor George Soros said on Tuesday.
"The hedge-fund industry is going to move through a shakeout," Soros, one of the world's first hedge-fund managers and still among the best known, said.
DETERMINED ON GROWTH
Economic data pointed to a rocky road ahead, even if regulators manage to get to grips with the financial crisis.
In Japan, industrial output rose 1.2 percent in September, beating forecasts, but the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry predicted a significant fall in core manufacturing output in October and November.
U.S. consumer confidence plunged in October to the lowest in the 40-year history of the survey, and economists polled by Reuters expect U.S. gross domestic product figures on Thursday to show a 0.5 percent decline in July-September.
Chancellor Alistair Darling urged governments to work as zealously to support their economies as they have to combat a collapse of the world's financial system.
"Three weeks ago, we worked with other countries to put in place a plan to stabilise the banking system," Darling said in extracts from a speech he is to deliver later on Wednesday.
"And today we need the same determination to support the wider economy, to ensure that fiscal policy supports monetary policy, here and across the world, in these exceptional circumstances."
-------------------------
Russia, China sign oil cooperation memorandum
28.10.2008, 15.27
MOSCOW, October 28 (Itar-Tass) - Russia and China have signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the oil sphere, under which the parties will set up a working group to be led by the Russian energy minister and the head of China’s state energy department.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan signed the document after talks on Tuesday.
--------------------------
US-led aggression in Syria triggers bigger sales of Russian arms
28.10.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/asia/106632-usa_syria-0
The conflict in Iraq is no longer restricted with its borders. The USA committed an act of aggression against Syria. Spokespeople for the US administration justify their actions with the notorious struggle against terrorism. Washington thus continues to unite Islamic countries against the United States. Following the US-led incursion, Syria decided to expand the list of weapons which the country purchases from Russia.
Nine civilians were killed and 14 injured (including women and children) as a result of the US aggression against Syria, an official statement from Damascus said.
Four US military helicopters conducted the attack. Three Apache choppers opened fire at a building on the territory of Syria. Afterwards, ten US commandoes cleared the object, exterminated every living being there and returned to their base in Iraq.
It goes without saying that Syria was more than just concerned about those events. US and Iraqi ambassadors were summoned to the Foreign Ministry of Syria to explain the aggressive actions. Surprisingly enough, Damascus officials blamed mostly Iraq and asked the country to investigate the events and bar the USA from conducting any operations on the territory of Syria in the future.
The US-led attack took place in the village of Abu Kamal, which is a large transit and customs center of the Syrian-Iraqi border. The Iraqi town of Qaim, which is considered to be a stronghold of the anti-American resistance in the west of Iraq, is located nearby.
Nothing distinctive followed from the US administration to explain what exactly happened in Syria . US officials only said that the special operation had been conducted against an al-Qaida base.
“It goes without saying that one has to consider the situation against the background of Iraqi events only. One may not exclude the fact that the US military struck a terrorist training base. The US is currently busy with establishing law and order in the Sunni regions of the country, where foreign mercenaries also operate,” Sergei Demidenko, an expert specializing in the Arab world told Pravda.ru.
“It is not going to develop into global confrontation. It is a wholly political issue. There are no facts to prove that Bashar Assad’s regime supports terrorism. The situation is similar to that in Saudi Arabia, where some sheikhs, but not the king, sponsor terrorism. It is worthy of note that Syrian President Assad has many pro-Western politicians in his team. Assad himself studied in the West, he is not a military man, he has no hawkish ambition and he shares pro-Western views, no matter how strange it may seem,” the expert added.
There is nothing surprising about the fact that foreign guerrillas make their way to Iraq via Syria . Jordan lies on their way too, although this country is traditionally believed to be a US ally in the region. However, the US tends to blame only Syria at this point and keep silence about Jordan. It has become a tradition for the United States to forgive its allies and punish the infidels.
The recent raid has become USA’s first open ground operation in Syria. Western media outlets said that the USA was hunting for foreign mercenaries in Syria. However, official spokespeople for the Syrian authorities said that there were neither military objects nor terrorist bases in the attacked region. Furthermore, it was said that the US commandoes had attacked Syrian civilians who were building a farm in the area.
It is worthy of note that it is not the first time, when Syria tries to defend itself making references to farms. Israel destroyed the fruit of nuclear cooperation between Syria and North Korea in September 2007 – the object was built under the guise of a farm too.
Some experts said that the USA made a mistake with its attack against a civil object in Syria. This point of view withstands no criticism, for this “mistake” was made on the territory of a sovereign state, whose relations with the United States can not be described as positive. The USA has already made such a “mistake” before when it invaded the oil-rich Iraq to search for weapons of mass destruction.
The US administration has obtained its profit from the events in Syria. The mystical al-Qaida started “working” again, whereas the struggle against terrorism is the last opportunity for the outgoing US president to justify the disastrous Iraqi campaign. Every fight to defeat terrorism can bring additional votes for Bush’s Republican successor John McCain.
In the meantime, Syria has already contacted Moscow with a request to launch the deliveries of military hardware, including up-to-date missile complexes. It is not ruled out that the USA was sounding out Syria’s defensive abilities.
Sergei Balmasov
------------------------------
Oil drops below 60 dollars per barrel, Putin unhappy
28.10.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/economics/106634-putin_oil-0
Prime Minister Putin is dissatisfied with Russia’s current dependence on the export of oil. Russia’s foreign trade has increased 2.2 times during the recent eight years, Putin said at a governmental session Monday. Nevertheless, the foreign trade structure remains unsatisfactory, Putin said.
“Russia still strongly depends on the export of hydrocarbons and other raw materials, which means that the country also depends on the conjuncture of world prices,” RIA Novosti quoted Putin as saying.
“The temptation of simple decisions is obviously strong against the background of the financial crisis, which the whole world suffers from today. It may often go about the closing of national economies, the aggressive protectionism, restrictions for the movement of capitals. Of course, we must take into consideration the reality of today and we will do so in our practical politics, although, strategically, isolation is not our choice,” Putin said.
“Our choice is to continue Russia’s further integration into the global economy. It has been changing, of course, although it is our perspective to join efforts,” the prime minister said.
Putin started to raise the subject of Russia’s oil export dependence about 18 months ago when he was taking the Kremlin office as the president. He particularly stated during his meeting with Russia’s leading entrepreneurs that it was time for the nation to refuse from its dependence on natural resources.
“One has to learn to export crude, gas, ore and wood, and process natural resources inside Russia to be able to enter other markets with high-tech products,” Putin said in February 2007.
Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin has always been the main adversary of Russia’s dependence on oil prices. The ongoing reduction of the oil prices in the world pushes Russia towards supporting innovative technologies. No one knows which consequences it may have for the nation and the people.
----------------------------
Talks on Russian loan to Iceland could continue in Reykjavik
11:31 | 29/ 10/ 2008
ST. PETERSBURG, October 29 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's next round of talks on a stabilization loan to Iceland could be held soon in Reykjavik, Icelandic Minister of Commerce Bjorgvin Sigurdsson said on Wednesday.
A delegation from Iceland arrived in Moscow in mid-October for a series of meetings to agree the terms for a loan that would allow Iceland's government to shore up its shaky national currency, the krona, which collapsed after the country was forced to nationalize its three main banks after they amassed debts of over $60 billion.
With the sub-Arctic island's population of only 320,000, the banks' debt is equivalent to $187,000 per person.
Iceland's Central Bank said on October 7 that Russia had agreed to grant it a 4 billion euro ($5 billion) loan. Kudrin earlier said Russia viewed Iceland's loan request favorably, but that a decision on whether to grant the loan would only be made after talks.
Iceland's Central Bank said the duration of the loan would be three to four years, carrying interest ranging from 30 to 50 basis points over LIBOR.
With debts some 12 times larger than the national economy, which is expected to contract by 10% in 2009, the bank said the loan would significantly bolster Iceland's foreign exchange reserves, strengthening the stability of the krona in the face of the financial crisis.
The International Monetary Fund has agreed to provide a $2.1 billion loan to Iceland.
-----------------------------
Two Jesuit priests found dead in Moscow flat
10:58 | 29/ 10/ 2008
MOSCOW, October 29 (RIA Novosti) - Two Jesuit priests were found murdered in their flat in central Moscow on Tuesday evening, a Russian Catholic Church official said on Wednesday.
Otto Messmer, who heads the Russian Independent Region of the Society of Jesus, and Colombian priest Victor Betancourt, were found dead in their apartment on Petrovka Street, with severe bodily injuries.
"They did not answer telephone calls, so their brothers in the order went to their apartment, where they found them already dead," Igor Kovalevsky, the general secretary of the Conference of Catholic Bishops of Russia, told reporters.
The motive for the killing is not known, he said.
Earlier reports said the priests were injured in a fight near their house involving two other individuals. A local police source said the clerics died from injuries sustained in the fighting.
Eyewitness said a man of Hispanic appearance, aged around 40, killed the priests.
The Russian Independent Region of the Society of Jesus, which was officially registered in June 1992, carries out educational and missionary work throughout the Commonwealth of Independent States.
-----------------------------
Russia reforging its nuclear shield
18:21 | 28/ 10/ 2008
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) - The introduction of the RS-24 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in 2009 will be the most important phase in the renewal of the Russian Strategic Missile Force (SMF) after the adoption of the Topol-M.
For the first time in post-Soviet Russia, a new ground-based MIRV-equipped missile system will be adopted by Russia's military.
There is little information on the performance of the new RS-24. According to the most reliable sources, this missile, developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology like the Topol-M, is in fact a further development of the latter, with an improved third stage and dispensing mechanism, the so-called "bus," from the RSM-56 Bulava ICBM.
The new missile should have a range of 11,000 km or more, and the warheads are most likely to have a yield of between 150 and 300 kilotons each. The RS-24 will hold an interposition between the Topol-M with a 550-kiloton single warhead, though in the future it could be tipped with three individually targeted warheads with a yield between 150 and 300 kilotons, and heavy lift launch vehicles RS-20 Voevoda, carrying up to 10 warheads, 750 kilotons each. The RS-24 is therefore likely to be comparable in performance with the silo-based liquid-fueled UR-100 NUTTH.
Aside from the warheads, the RS-24 carries missile defense penetration systems, hindering enemy detection and interception, which makes the new missile a valuable asset amid the deployment of U.S. global missile defense.
Like the Topol-M, the RS-24 could be specified in either a silo-based or a mobile version, which would increase the Russian SMF's versatility. With the current production capacity, by the beginning of the next decade, up to 15 ICBMs, including five to six RS-24s, could be delivered to the military annually, keeping the ICBM numbers at the required level.
With the RS-24 entering service, the structure of the Russian SMF in the coming decade looks clear. Along with the Topol-M, the new missile will form the backbone of the SMF, their number totaling up to 250 and 60, respectively, by the end of the next decade. Additionally, by 2020, several dozens of Topol and UR-100 NUTTH ICBMs will remain in service. A new heavy missile is also expected to replace the RS-20 Voevoda ICBM. All in all, the SMF would include about 300 to 350 missiles of various types with 800 warheads.
The backbone of the Naval Strategic Nuclear Force will be liquid-fueled RSM-54 Sineva ICBMs, installed on six 667BDRM nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines, which will have their life cycle extended into late 2020s, and cutting-edge solid-fuel RSM-56 Bulava ICBMs on 955/955Ã submarines. The navy plans to commission eight missile submarines of the above-mentioned class to replace the 667BDR submarines. By 2020, the Russian navy will most likely have between 12 and 14 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines carrying between 192 and 224 missiles with 800 to 900 warheads.
Strategic aviation will go on with the employment of the Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers, as the new advanced strategic bomber will not enter service before 2020. The balance in bombers class numbers is likely to change, however, with Tu-95s down to between 40 and 48 from the current 68, and Tu-160 up to between 22 and 24 from the current 16.
Therefore, before the end of the next decade, the total potential of Russia's nuclear triad is estimated to be between 1,600 and 1,900 warheads. Is it a big figure? On the one hand, with the given deployment of U.S. missile defenses, this number of warheads doesn't seem so. On the other hand, the rapidly increased defense penetration capability of Russian nuclear weapons will make this inventory sufficient to inflict unacceptable damage to an attacker, whoever it may be.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
---------------------------
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Purple tomato could fight cancer
Genetically modified purple tomatoes that have been grown to be rich in antioxidants could help fight off cancer.
Crossed between an orange and a plum, the new super tomato still tastes and smells like the normal red fruit, but the change in colour is down to antioxidant pigments that can protect against a variety of diseases including cancer and diabetes.
Scientists created the purple tomato by combining them with genes from snapdragon flowers which contain an antioxidant called anthocyanin – also found in blueberries and blackberries. The fruit is already being hailed a success after tests on mice that were prone to cancer lived nearly a third longer when their diet included the super tomato.
The results have inspired scientists to believe there is huge potential for creating many more 'functional foods' that could potentially help protect against disease.
Lead researcher and professor of plant biology, Cathie Martin, admitted she was 'bowled over' by the results.
'It's really clear that the mice eating the modified tomato start to die significantly later than mice on the normal tomatoes,' she said.
'At the very least, it suggests that what you eat can really make a contribution towards preventing disease and helping to keep you healthy.'
Monday 27 October 2008
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Anti-GM group slams GM pasture trial
Lyndal Reading
October 29, 2008
A NEW trial of genetically modified pasture in Western Victoria has been criticised by an anti-GM lobby group.
The Victorian Government announced yesterday that Australia's first trial of GM pastures would be conducted at the Department of Primary Industries site in Hamilton.
However, anti-GM campaigners GeneEthics said the GM pasture grasses were a waste of scarce public resources.
Spokesman Bob Phelps said the funds and scientific effort were needed right now to develop and deploy ecological systems that could drought proof, desalinate and restore soil fertility on farms.
"The 'bright idea' of more digestible GM grass would make farmers more reliant on increasingly expensive and scarce stocks of oil, synthetic fertilisers and chemicals," Mr Phelps said.
"We need new systems not gee-whizz plants, to get off the chemical treadmill."
The Federal Gene Technology Regulator has granted a licence to plant up to 500 lines of GM pasture varieties at the Department of Primary Industries site in Hamilton.
Innovation Minister Gavin Jennings said the pastures had a reduced non-digestible content which could mean farmers would be able to reduce the amount of feed they required for stock.
"This would be a critical breakthough for dairy, beef and sheep industries which have less pasture available for stock because of climate change and the prolonged drought," Mr Jennings said.
Mr Phelps said more digestible GM grass was still at the preliminary stage and it would take at least a decade to commercialise and the probability of success was very low.
"The GM grass will not be fed to animals so, like CSIRO's weevil resistant field pea research it may prove to be toxic to animals in ten years time, after hundreds of millions are wasted," Mr Phelps said.
Mr Phelps said in 1996 the GM industry commercialised four GM crops - soy, corn, canola and cotton - with the herbicide tolerance and insect toxin traits.
"In 2008, GM still has no new products," he said.
"GM is a stalled and failed technology."
Agriculture Minister Joe Helper said the trials would focus on pastures based on perennial ryegrass and tall fescue, developed by Victorian scientists.
"The trials are for proof-of-concept research and not for commercial release," Mr Helper said.
"But this research may give famers access to new pasture plant genetics with improved quality and energy content for livestock production."
DPI Biosciences Research Division executive director Professor German Spangenberg said the new technologies allowed for a targeted modification of lingin and fructan production in perennial ryegrass and tall fescue.
He said lignin provided the water proofing fibrous parts of pasture that could not be easily digested by livestock.
"Fructan are soluable carbohydrates that provide a readily available energy source to livestock," Prof Spangenberg said.
"By modifying lignification and enhancing fructan production in these plants, the herbage nutritive value is increased and stock can gain more energy from less pasture."
He said the GM grasses would not be used for animal feed.
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Australian-first GM grass trial to start
October 28, 2008 - 8:44PM
Genetically modified pasture grass that is more nutritious and easier for stock to digest is set to be trialled in Victoria in an Australian first.
Field trials of up to 500 lines of grasses will start in Hamilton, in western Victoria, following approval from the Federal Gene Technology Regulator.
The trials will be undertaken by the Department of Primary Industries (DPI) and the grasses will not be commercially released.
If successful, GM grasses could save farmers money in feed and help them survive drought.
"These new grasses have a reduced non-digestible content which, depending on the field trials, could mean farmers will be able to reduce the amount of feed they require for their stock," Innovation Minister Gavin Jennings said.
"This would be a critical breakthrough for dairy, beef and sheep industries which have less pasture available for stock because of climate change and the prolonged drought."
The trials will focus on pasture-based perennial ryegrass and tall fescue, developed by DPI scientists.
Agriculture Minister Joe Helper said the trials were for "proof-of-concept" research and would not be commercially released or used for animal feed.
Eventually they may provide farmers access to better quality pastures with a higher energy content for livestock, he said.
"The development and adoption of new pasture plant genetics with increased nutritive value could lead to increases on farm productivity, and may also help reduce the amount of feed farmers need to buy in when they have feed shortages," Mr Helper said.
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October 28th, 2008
Genetically modified tomatoes to fight cancer?
Posted by Roland Piquepaille @ 10:19 am
Despite advertising campaigns, we don’t eat the five fruits and vegetables we’re supposed to do to protect us from obesity and many diseases. This is why European researchers have decided to genetically modify one of the plants we still often eat, the tomato. And the high anthocyanins content purple tomatoes they’ve produced are apparently able to extend lifespan in cancer-prone mice. (Annthocyanins are part of a category of antioxidants belonging to the class of flavonoids). Experiments on mice look promising, with the ones eating these purple tomatoes having an average lifespan of 182 days in comparison to the 142 recorded for mice fed with standard diet. But the scientists are cautious, adding that these are very preliminary results. I guess we’ll not see purple tomatoes before a while. But read more…
Genetically modified purple tomatoes
This research has been done for the EU-funded Flora project which wants to set a strategy of improving health through diet. One of the institutions involved is the Norwich BioScience Institutes at the John Innes Centre, UK. And one of Flora’s subprojects is the Moli-sani project of the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Italy.
This Norwich BioScience Institutes news release, Fried purple tomatoes, gives more details about the process. “Scientists have expressed genes from snapdragon in tomatoes to grow purple tomatoes high in health-protecting anthocyanins. Anthocyanins are naturally occurring pigments found at particularly high levels in berries such as blackberry, cranberry and chokeberry. Scientists are investigating ways to increase the levels of health-promoting compounds in more commonly eaten fruits and vegetables.”
The researchers add that “anthocyanins offer protection against certain cancers, cardiovascular disease and age-related degenerative diseases. There is evidence that anthocyanins also have anti-inflammatory activity, promote visual acuity and hinder obesity and diabetes.” So how did the scientists do? For ‘this study the scientists expressed two genes from snapdragon that induce the production of anthocyanins in snapdragon flowers. The genes were turned on in tomato fruit. Anthocyanins accumulated in tomatoes at higher levels than anything previously reported for metabolic engineering in both the peel and flesh of the fruit. The fruit are an intense purple colour.”
Now, let’s return to the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore news release mentioned in the introduction to see if these genetically modified tomatoes are good for the mice. “Mice used in the experiment have been divided into three groups, fed three different diets: the first one has received a standard diet, while the second group was fed diet supplemented with 10% powder from freeze-dried red tomatoes and the last one with 10% powder from purple tomatoes. ‘We have not recorded significant differences between the first two groups,’ argues Marco Giorgio from the European Institute of Oncology who followed the experimental phase on mice. ‘But mice fed with purple tomatoes showed a significant increase of lifespan.’ The last group has reported an average lifespan of 182 days in comparison to the 142 recorded for mice fed standard diet.”
Even with such results, Giorgio is still very cautious. “Although mice’s lifespan has significantly increased once fed on purple tomatoes we still don’t know how it works. It is not likely everything can be explained on antioxidants basis alone. Moreover, we have to consider that in this study we have not taken into account any possible toxicity so I shall say we’re far from considering a human trial. Next step is to investigate the effect of purple tomatoes on different kinds of tumor models and define the mechanism of action.”
For more information, this research work has been published in Nature Biotechnology as an advance online publication under the title “Enrichment of tomato fruit with health-promoting anthocyanins by expression of select transcription factors” (October 26, 2008). Here is the comment from Nature Biotechnology about this paper. “Fruit-specific overexpression of a pair of snapdragon transcription factors produces tomatoes that uniformly accumulate anthocyanins at levels unprecedented for metabolic engineering. When included as a dietary supplement, the purple tomatoes increase the life spans of tumorigenic p53 knockout mice.”
And here is the beginning of the abstract. “Dietary consumption of anthocyanins, a class of pigments produced by higher plants, has been associated with protection against a broad range of human diseases. However, anthocyanin levels in the most commonly eaten fruits and vegetables may be inadequate to confer optimal benefits. When we expressed two transcription factors from snapdragon in tomato, the fruit of the plants accumulated anthocyanins at levels substantially higher than previously reported for efforts to engineer anthocyanin accumulation in tomato and at concentrations comparable to the anthocyanin levels found in blackberries and blueberries.”
If you see purple tomatoes in a future visit to your market, don’t hesitate to buy them. They might be good for you. But if you don’t like the idea of genetically modified tomatoes to avoid future cancers, drop me a note.
Sources: Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore news release, October 26, 2008; Norwich BioScience Institutes news release, October 26, 2008; and various websites
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