Beware the unwinding of the yen carry trade

Beware the unwinding of the yen carry trade

By David Pilling

Published: October 29 2008 20:15 | Last updated: October 29 2008 20:15

We are used to the concept that when a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil all manner of unspeakable things happen in New Jersey and Tunbridge Wells. But many have struggled to understand the link between Mrs Watanabe’s mood swings and the price level of exotic currencies, distant equity markets and sundry commodities. What, in short, does a Japanese housewife have to do with the price of tea in China?

Mrs Watanabe is crude shorthand for Japan’s $15,000bn pool of savings, the deepest in the world and worth more than the annual economic output of the US. These vast resources are somewhat apocryphally marshalled by Japanese women, who have traditionally held a firm grip on family finances.

In fact, Mrs Watanabe is very crude shorthand indeed: she is just as likely to be Mr Watanabe, the manager of a Japanese life assurance company portfolio, or Mr Smith, an American hedge fund manager, borrowing in yen to buy South African rand, US mortgage-backed securities or tea futures. Whoever, she is, she borrowed cheaply in yen, courtesy of Japan’s rock-bottom interest rates – which have been stuck between zero and 0.5 per cent since 1999 – and put the money in higher-yielding assets abroad.

The important thing to know about Mrs Watanabe is that, temporarily at least, she has all but stopped flapping her wings. In the past days, as spectacular moves in global currencies reveal, the carry trade has been violently unwound. With last week’s panic retreat from risk assets of almost every description came a dramatic rise in the yen, partially reversed in the past two days on rumours of a Japanese interest rate cut. Even so, the yen was trading on Wednesday at about Y97 to the dollar, the other “safe haven” currency, against a remarkably steady Y110-Y120 in recent years.

The yen carry trade has not been the only cheap source of liquidity in recent years. But Ashraf Laidi, chief currency strategist at CMC Markets, reckons it has been the biggest. He quotes figures suggesting that Japanese households alone, discounting savings mediated through life assurers and other institutions, have mobilised $500bn in outbound funds. That leaves aside speculators, who have borrowed unknowable amounts of yen to invest abroad, often on highly leveraged terms.

Just as state bank bail-outs risk moral hazard, more recklessness and the need for future bail-outs, so the unwinding of the carry trade carries with it the danger of the next great bubble. In Japan, the central bank appears to have reacted to a rising yen and sinking stock market by contemplating the uncontemplatable: a rate cut. Even the rumour of such has provoked a mini equity rally and a weakening of the currency.

This is poison for the BoJ. It hated having to keep rates low, fearing that cheap money can cause bubbles in real estate, in capital investment and in the carry trade. Its sightings of inflationary danger everywhere provoked mirth among outside experts. But few are laughing now.

The BoJ might feel vindicated. Even so, it may have to do the opposite of what it wants by cutting rates to avoid the danger of sharp economic contraction. The risks are compounded by the renewed danger of deflation, a ghoulish presence for a decade that, thanks to sliding commodity prices, could come back to haunt Japan.

If Japan really is about to reverse course towards zero interest rates, it will once again become the source of almost free money for anyone with an appetite to invest. Worse even than that, says Mr Laidi, is the potential for an even more dangerous dollar carry trade. The Federal Reserve has been desperately cutting rates, and lopped another half point off again on Wednesday. The nearer US interest rates approach zero, the greater the incentive to move dollars into higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

These gyrations do nothing to solve the underlying problem, which is that Asia has an excess of savers and the US and Europe an excess of spenders. Unless that is solved, the world seems condemned to repeat the swings of recent years, as capital is arbitraged between countries where money is cheap to those where it is expensive.

Until recently, one of Mrs Watanabe’s favourite wheezes was to take her Japanese yen and put them in Australian dollars, earning her a roughly six-point interest rate gain. This week, she – and those who travel with her – will not have missed the fact that Iceland just raised its interest rate to 18 per cent. That is a 17.5 point differential with Japan, and counting. Krona, anyone?

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Mars ‘shocked’ by destruction of safe chocolates

By John Aglionby in Jakarta

Published: October 29 2008 19:22 | Last updated: October 29 2008 19:22

Mars said yesterday it was “shocked” that Indonesia had confiscated and destroyed thousands of cartons of its sweets because of melamine contamination fears even though tests had shown they were safe to eat.

Indonesia’s Food and Medicine Supervision Agency, BPOM, confirmed 2,000 cartons of Snickers and M&Ms had been destroyed but refused to explain why or comment on the case, which Mars said had cost it half the year’s predicted revenue.

The case highlights the challenges of investing in Indonesia, where officials sometimes appear to act arbitrarily.

Mars is one of several global food companies to have been caught up in China’s melamine-tainted dairy products scandal. More than 10,000 Chinese children have fallen ill this year, with at least four dying, after manufacturers put dangerously high levels of the poisonous chemical in milk powder and other foods.

The confectioner’s troubles began on September 27 when tests conducted by the Indonesian food and drugs regulator showed some Snickers bars and packets of M&Ms made with Chinese dairy products contained 24.44 and 856.3 parts per million of melamine respectively. The US Food and Drug Administration says 2.5ppm is the maximum allowed level.

The regulator’s results, which Khaled Rabbani, a regional director of Mars, said were “flawed”, contradicted Chinese government test results and, according to Mars, results from more than 400 tests worldwide which all ruled their products were safe.

On October 23, BPOM seized Mars’s confectionery. Three days later Mars and BPOM conducted joint tests on the seized sweets which, according to results seen by the Financial Times, detected no melamine in the Snickers and 0.03-0.05ppm of melamine in the M&Ms. On Tuesday BPOM wrote to Mars saying the sweets would be destroyed.

Mr Rabbani said: “We understand there are melamine issues in the region and that BPOM needs to send a strong message to the nation that the food supply is safe. But we were shocked that our products were destroyed.”

Mr Rabbani said the company remained committed to Indonesia in spite of the incident.

Husniah Thamrin, the head of BPOM, confirmed the sweets had been destroyed but declined to comment further.

Mars’ woes in Indonesia extend to the legal sector where two courts have ruled against it in a dispute with its former distributor. Mars has appealed to the supreme court.

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Moscow agrees oligarch bail-out

By Catherine Belton in Moscow

Published: October 29 2008 23:42 | Last updated: October 29 2008 23:42

Russia’s state development bank on Wednesday approved $10bn (£6bn, €8bn) in refinancing for the country’s cash-strapped oligarchs. This came as the first step of a $50bn government bail-out that could redraw Russia’s business landscape.

As part of the package, Oleg Deripaska’s UC Rusal holding company was set to receive a $4.5bn loan. It will use it to repay in full a syndicate of western banks, including Royal Bank of Scotland and Merrill Lynch, that Mr Deripaska has been scrambling to pay by a Friday deadline, people familiar with the situation said.

The approval of the government loan – to be disbursed in the next few weeks – would make it easier for Rusal to persuade the banks to agree an extension of the deadline until the end of November, these people said. “It looks like everything is slotting into place,” said one person close to the creditors.

Mr Deripaska, Russia’s richest man, has been racing to secure state refinancing for the loan after the value of the 25 per cent stake in Norilsk Nickel he pledged as collateral tumbled in breach of covenants. Earlier efforts to win refinancing from the western banks failed.

The Russian government is likely to exact a high price, however, for providing the lifeline to his empire.

The terms of the bail-out package were yet to be hammered out, one person close to the situation said.

However, government officials have said the state development bank, VEB, would demand the same stakes as collateral as those pledged to the western banks.

As a result, Mr Deripaska’s stake in Norilsk, the world’s biggest nickel miner, is likely to remain under pressure.

Some government factions are eyeing the creation of a state metals and mining champion and Mr Deripaska is already battling rival owner Vladimir Potanin for control of the company.

Rusal declined to comment on Wednesday, as did VEB, although it confirmed $10bn in loans had been approved.

Mikhail Fridman’s Alfa Group will also be a recipient of the first wave of state bail-out funds after his telecoms arm, Altimo, failed to meet margin calls last week on $2bn in loans from a syndicate of western banks led by Deutsche Bank.

People close to the creditors said Deutsche Bank had received a letter of credit from VEB on Tuesday.

This allowed the two sides to agree that the loans would be repaid in full.

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Syria Warns it May Close US Embassy
By VOA News
29 October 2008

The U.S. embassy in Syria's capital has issued a warning to Americans in the country to be alert following a raid on eastern Syria that Damascus blames on U.S. forces.

The embassy says "unforeseen events" could prompt officials to close the embassy to the public indefinitely.

Syria has protested to the United Nations about Sunday's deadly helicopter raid.

In a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon released Tuesday, Syria urged U.N. member states to prevent a repeat of the attack, calling it a serious violation of Syria's sovereignty.

Syria's letter also says the U.N. Security Council should take action against those responsible for the raid, saying it killed eight Syrian civilians, including children. The identity of the casualties has not been independently verified.

Syria's government ordered the closure of an American school and a U.S. cultural center in Damascus on Tuesday in apparent retaliation for the helicopter assault.

The Bush administration has refused to confirm or deny carrying out the attack.

But, U.S. officials, speaking anonymously, say the operation appears to have killed al-Qaida leader Abu Ghadiyah who smuggled weapons and foreign fighters into Iraq.

Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh criticized the attack Tuesday, saying his country "rejects" the operation and does not want its territory to be used for attacks on neighboring countries.

Al-Dabbagh also called on Damascus to crack down on insurgents who use Syria as a base to train and launch attacks on Iraq. Baghdad has said that Sunday's helicopter raid targeted such an area.

Syria expressed apparent displeasure with Iraq's reaction, postponing a meeting of Syrian and Iraqi officials planned for November in Baghdad.

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Belarus to liberalise for IMF loan

By Jan Cienski in Minsk

Published: October 29 2008 09:26 | Last updated: October 29 2008 18:53

Belarus is promising to reform its economy and sell off some state assets as it holds talks with the International Monetary Fund on a possible $2bn loan as a “security cushion” in case of further turbulence from the global financial crisis.

Minsk has used about 10 per cent of its foreign currency reserves, which now stand at about $4.9bn, over the last month as it tried to support the Belarusian rouble.

Belarus, which has a relatively underdeveloped financial sector, was not affected by the initial shock of the crisis, but it has been hit by turmoil in Russia, its main trading partner, and neighbouring Ukraine.

“In the first phase Belarus was only minimally affected. But in the second phase, with terms of trade becoming worse, we anticipate certain problems will confront our exporters,” Vasily Matyushevsky, the deputy chairman of the central bank, told reporters on Wednesday.

The IMF has already agreed to loan Hungary $25.1bn and Ukraine $16.5bn. An IMF delegation arrived in Minsk on Sunday and is holding talks with the Belarusian government.

“It is needed to safeguard against any shocks or stresses,” said Andrei Kobyakov, the deputy prime minister, adding that if the economic situation improved Belarus might end up not needing the loan.

Belarus, one of Europe’s last authoritarian states, has long been one of Russia’s closest allies but in the last year has been cautiously opening itself to the west. In September it increased the permitted foreign stake in local banks to rise from 25 to 50 per cent. The government is also planning to sell off four state owned banks as well as other state owned enterprises.

“We are taking steps to improve the business climate of our country, to ensure a continued inflow of foreign direct investment,” said Mr Matyushevsky.

Belarus is also in the final stages of negotiating a $2bn loan from Russia, which supplies Belarus with most of its oil and gas. Mr Kobyakov denied that the terms of the loan were tied to Belarusian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two breakaway regions of Georgia that Russia says are independent states.

“The Russian loan is not linked to the global economic crisis, although in today’s situation it is coming just in time,” he said.

The Belarusian economy grew by 8.2 per cent last year and the government expects growth this year to be at least 10 per cent.

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Case lays Abramovich’s interests bare

By Megan Murphy, Law Courts Correspondent

Published: October 30 2008 02:45 | Last updated: October 30 2008 02:45

The luxurious lifestyle and labyrinthine business holdings of Roman Abramovich, the billionaire Russian owner of Chelsea Football Club, were on Wednesday laid bare in a potentially landmark ruling over a Siberian oil dispute.

In the latest of a series of English cases to delve into the historically opaque dealings of the oligarchs, Mr Abramovich successfully defended efforts to sue him in London for allegedly defrauding a bankrupt Russian oil company out of billions of dollars.

Rather unusually, the 134-page ruling details everything from the business magnate’s vast property holdings, to the exact amount of days he has spent in the UK over the past seven years.

Even for an oligarch, Mr Ambramovich appears wedded to a hectic schedule.

Spending time at his myriad of chartered yachts, his “seven or eight” flats in Knightsbridge, London, his ski chalets in Colorado, the €230m ($303m, £183m) chateau in France and his three homes in Russia, means that Mr Abramovich boards an aircraft between 10 and 15 times a month.

Much more importantly for his fellow oligarchs, however, was Mr Justice Christopher Clarke’s ruling that Mr Abramovich was primarily resident in Russia at the time the suit was filed, in spite of his substantial interests in the UK.

It emerged that a “very large” percentage of his visits to England – as much as 92 per cent in any given year – were specifically connected with Chelsea matches, rather than any personal or professional ties.

The football club, bought by Mr Abramovich in 2003 and on which he has lavished around £500m, was described as a “hobby and a leisure interest” by Mr Justice Clarke in his lengthy judgment.

“It is not a business investment,” the judge said. “The sums that Mr Abramovich has given to the club far exceed any return that could possibly be expected.”

Legal experts said the decision may help other international business titans fend off attempts to sue them in the UK if they spend most of their time in other countries.

Adrian Lifely, a lawyer at law firm Osborne Clarke, said it would “close the door” on an anticipated flood of claims targeting oligarchs and wealthy foreigners who own property in London.

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Congo reignites

Published: October 30 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 30 2008 02:00

The war that has claimed more victims than any other since world war two is reigniting at potentially horrific cost. Several million Congolese died before international efforts to broker peace began to bear fruit in 2003. The United Nations' largest peacekeeping force has since prevented a legacy of localised conflicts regaining nationwide momentum, although atrocities have continued on a monstrous scale. This time, however, the pattern of fighting, and of bellicose statements emanating from neighbouring capitals, bears alarming similarities to events that led in the past to a devastating regional war.

Ethnic Tutsi rebels allied to neighbouring Rwanda are poised to capture the eastern city of Goma, where UN forces have their principal base. More than a million displaced villagers risk being cut off from aid. Congolese government troops are on the run and Kinshasa is appealing to Angola to intervene on its behalf. History is repeating itself. Britain and America - as Rwanda's principal western allies - risk playing a proxy role in a possible bloodbath and collapse of the UN mission if they fail to use their leverage.

A conflagration is inevitable if Rwanda becomes more explicitly involved. The Rwandan government denies supporting renegade commander and alleged war criminal Laurent Nkunda, who is threatening to take his battle to Kinshasa, 1,500km away. But if Kigali has not already contrived to make his latest offensive possible, it is intervening on his behalf now, exchanging fire with Congolese troops.

The Kinshasa government is far from saintly itself. It holds part of the blame for the collapse of a ceasefire accord signed last year. The UN mission has proved only partially effective. A policy of containment has cooled tensions but left causes unaddressed. Among these is the continued presence in eastern Congo of Hutu militias, bearing the same philosophy that fuelled the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Few analysts believe they pose a significant threat to Rwanda now. But they provide a pretext for General Nkunda to maintain a standing army to protect the business interests of wealthy minority Tutsis.

Speaking about Russia in Georgia, David Miliband, Britain's foreign secretary, said this week that whatever the rights or wrongs, they did not justify one country invading another. Britain is Rwanda's largest bilateral donor. The US is a key ally too. Together they have influence in Central Africa, which they did not have in the Caucasus, to prevent Rwanda crossing Congo's border and to force it to restrain Gen Nkunda.

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The Short View: Markets get what they want

By John Authers

Published: October 29 2008 18:48 | Last updated: October 29 2008 18:48

Markets have got what they wanted. Ahead of Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, Fed Funds futures indicated certainty that the target Fed Funds rate would drop from 1.5 to 1 per cent. The only doubt was whether the Fed would signal continuing concern about inflation; and it chose to flag only risks to growth.

For the sake of the stock markets, it is just as well that the Fed came through with a half-point cut. European stocks had just completed a 24-hour surge that had started in the US and Asia. That move undid falls of the previous week and was correlated with a move back out of the yen and dollar and into other currencies.

The cumulative effect of these moves shows that world markets still lack a clear compass. The UK’s FTSE-100 closed 21.8 per cent higher, in dollar terms, than its mid-session low on Monday. A disappointment from the Fed might have been hard to handle.

This latest market spasm is not all about central banks. Last week’s sell-off of all currencies against the yen and the dollar was driven by “deleveraging” as hedge funds strove to pay off debts (often in yen), exit risky trades and bring money home to the US. Tuesday’s sudden reversal may indicate that that forced selling is ending.

Yet it also appears to reflect a bet that the forex markets had left both the Fed and the Bank of Japan with no choice but to cut rates. The dollar had gained almost 16 per cent against a trade-weighted index of currencies, in barely a month. Meanwhile the yen gained 18 per cent against the dollar and 33 per cent against the euro in a matter of weeks.

If the market can get through the week without accident, the chances for the long-awaited rally look good. The next event is the BoJ’s meeting on Friday. According to Credit Suisse, the chance that it cuts rates has this week risen from 15 per cent to 55 per cent.

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Bank of China books 3.8 billion dollars in investment losses

AFP

Bank of China said it had posted 26.3 billion yuan (3.8 billion dollars) in potential losses on assets at the end of September, partially related to US subprime mortgage-backed securities.
China's largest foreign exchange bank also reported a net profit of 17.8 billion yuan in the third quarter, up 11.5 percent from a year earlier, according to a filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange late Wednesday.

The potential losses on assets for the first nine months of the year more than doubled from 10.8 billion yuan a year earlier due to new paper losses on loans and foreign currency investment securities, the bank said.

Bank of China (BoC) said it held US subprime mortgage-related debt securities valued at 3.3 billion dollars at the end of September. The loss on paper was 2.0 billion dollars on those securities.

The bank said it also owned 6.2 billion dollars in debt securities issued by troubled US mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

In addition, it held 1.4 billion dollars of securities backed by Alt-A mortgage, a category of loans with credit risks between prime and subprime loans.

The bank added it had booked a 65 million-dollar charge for the holdings of 76 million dollars worth of bonds issued by collapsed US investment bank Lehman Brothers.

It also faced a 45 million-dollar charge for 53 million dollars in loans its New York branch had extended to Lehman and its units.

Although the exposure accounted for only a small portion of its total assets of 962.8 dollars, analysts said BoC faces a more challenging environment compared to other Chinese banks due to its bigger foreign exchange securities portfolio and overseas operations.

Meanwhile, earnings growth in the third quarter slowed from the first half when its net profit grew 42.8 percent from a year earlier as bank profits were hurt by a slowing domestic economy and falling interest rates.

China's economic growth weakened to nine percent in the third quarter, the slowest in about five years. The central People's Bank of China cut key interest rates on Wednesday in a bid to spur economic growth, the third such move in six weeks.

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Britain's Brown in Gulf to seek world bailout plan support

AFP Katherine Haddon

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown embarks on a mini-tour of oil-rich Gulf states Saturday, but could struggle to win support for his plan to boost funds available to nations hit by global economic chaos.

Brown will head to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in a four-day visit and is likely argue to that Gulf states should be among the biggest donors to an expanded International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout scheme.

"It's the countries that have got substantial reserves, the oil-rich countries and others who are going to be the biggest contributors to this fund," Brown said before the trip, adding he also wanted China to contribute.

"I am going to the Gulf at the weekend and it is one of the items that will be in the discussions with all the international leaders."

But the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), whose top producer is Saudi Arabia and which counts the UAE and Qatar as members, says it sees no reason its members should bail out a crisis which originated in the US.

And experts say that even if Gulf states do step in to bail out countries hit by the downturn, they would probably not want to do it through the IMF .

Adam Dixon of consulting firm Oxford Analytica said they might prefer a "piggyback strategy" where they top up funds for countries like Pakistan from the IMF, which they see as dominated by the US and G7 countries.

"In terms of funneling it (the money) through the IMF, I don't think so," he told AFP.

The IMF, which has or is about to bail out Hungary, Ukraine and Iceland, currently has a 250 billion dollar bail-out fund, but Brown wants this extended to stop economic "contagion" spreading to other countries.

His trip to the Gulf comes ahead of a meeting of G20 leaders in Washington including Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah on November 15 which will likely discuss a restructuring of the world financial system, including the IMF.

The Gulf states, whose main economic driver is oil, have been hit by its price dropping below 60 dollars a barrel this week from record highs of nearly 150 dollars in July on fears of falling demand because of the slowdown.

Brown drew the ire of OPEC and Gulf leaders for speaking against OPEC's decision at an emergency meeting last week to cut oil output by 1.5 million barrels a day from November in a bid to buoy up prices.

Dixon said that, although most Gulf states were still flushed with cash, they would probably use the falls in oil prices as "the excuse" if they did not want to back Brown's plan.

OPEC's Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said Tuesday it was "surprising" that OPEC countries, which produce around 40 percent of the world's crude, were being asked to "bail out" the economic crisis.

"This crisis created in the (United) States must be solved within the States," he told an oil conference in London. Later he said he would not rule out another oil production cut.

Qatar's energy minister and deputy premier Abdulla bin Hamad al-Attiyah added at the same event that Britain and the US should not criticise the output cut without suggesting how more people could be encouraged to buy oil.

"You can't say to me 'don't do it, you're the bad boy' but with no solution," he said.

Meanwhile, UAE Energy Minister Mohamed Bin Dhaen Al Hamli said low oil prices were "very dangerous" for the world economy, adding that a "reasonable" price was needed to ensure continued investment.

As well as fears about how high oil prices could hit the global economy, Brown is facing pressure at home to reduce household fuel and petrol bills as householders face a likely recession in Britain.

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French billionaire to launch Polish bank

Yesterday, 06:24 pm
AFP

* Print Story

The Carlo Tassara investment group owned by French billionaire Romain Zaleski will launch a new bank in Poland next month backed with an investment of 450 million euros (562 million dollars), Alior Bank said Wednesday.
Alior said it would formally begin business on November 17, starting with 80 branches and aiming to have 200 by 2012 as an initial staff of 1,300 rises to 3,300.

It said it was targeting a two percent share of the retail banking market and four percent for business clients by 2012.

Bank officials said that now is a good time to launch, with the global financial crisis no obstacle.

"I would say, paradoxically, that this is a good time to open a new bank. The prospects of a recession are quite low," Alior head Wojciech Sobieraj told a news conference.

"Being new on the market is also an advantage. We don't have toxic debt or loans with low margins that have to be dealt with for years," she said.

Sobieraj, a high-profile local banker, got the idea two years ago and eventually won Zaleski's backing.

"We were considering investing in the banking sector and we liked Wojciech Sobieraj's project," said Zaleski's daughter, Helene Zaleski, a senior executive at Carlo Tassara and now a member of the Alior supervisory board.

Zaleski, whose parents were from Poland, made his fortune in steel and energy in France and Italy.

Carlo Tassara now holds major shares of French groups EDF and Vinci, and Italy's Intesa Sanpaolo, Edison and Generali.

The move to set up an ultra-modern banking operation, targeting a well-educated urban clientele, took one year to bear fruit, said Helene Zaleski.

Among the bank's hallmarks will be a service that is as paper-free as possible, with touch-screen signatures and mobile telephone text message transaction confirmations, as well as a weekly Internet chat between the board and customers.

When the serious planning began in September 2007, few expected the US real estate crisis to spill over into the global financial markets.

Even in the current climate, Alior seems unfazed.

Helene Zaleski pointed to the banking potential of Poland, a market she knows well after having worked in its insurance sector in the 1990s.

"There's still room for a large bank in Poland," she said.

"There are far fewer branches per head than in western Europe and much less liquidity deposited in banks here," she said.

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Blanchflower Says U.K. Needs Rate Cuts as Deflation Risk Looms

By Brian Swint and Jennifer Ryan

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said U.K. interest rates need to fall soon and ``significantly'' to stave off the threat of deflation as the economy endures a recession throughout the next year.

``Interest rates do need to come down significantly -- and quickly,'' Blanchflower said in a speech at the University of Kent in Canterbury, England, yesterday. ``If rates are not cut aggressively we do face the prospect of a relatively deep and long-lasting recession.''

The Federal Reserve cut its interest rate to 1 percent yesterday and said that downside risks to economic growth remain. Blanchflower has argued that the U.K. economy faces similar conditions to the U.S. and voted for a rate cut at every meeting in the past year, pressing for a half-point reduction to 4.5 percent before the Bank of England delivered it this month.

``U.K. output will continue to contract in 2008 and 2009,'' Blanchflower said. ``My concern is that inflation will be below 1 percent -- and maybe even negative.''

Inflation accelerated to 5.2 percent in September, the fastest pace in at least 11 years. The bank predicts it will soon start to slow toward the 2 percent target.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to lower the interest rate on Oct. 8 after the financial crisis crippled the British banking industry. It will cut the rate by a further half point at the next scheduled meeting on Nov. 6, according to the median forecast of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Darling's Pledge

The crisis has forced Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling to buy stakes in banks, raising spending. He signaled late yesterday that the Treasury will pay down debt once the economy recovers. The European Investment Bank will lend 4 billion pounds ($6.6 billion) to U.K. companies struggling to borrow because of the credit crunch, the Treasury said today.

Monetary policy has so far not been ``sufficiently forward looking'' and it has been ``apparent for some time'' that the U.K. is in a recession, Blanchflower said.

While other policy makers have argued that accelerating inflation will encourage Britons to push for higher wages, Blanchflower said that price expectations will fall. ``The British people are smart enough to have actually noticed that inflation is coming down fast,'' he said.

The pound's depreciation won't be inflationary because it will be offset by the more than 50 percent drop in oil prices since then, Blanchflower said. Companies would also have trouble passing on any higher costs as demand weakens, he said.

Job Losses

Jobless claims rose to the highest level in almost two years in September, the statistics office reported Oct. 15. The U.K. economy shrank 0.5 percent in the third quarter, the largest contraction since 1990.

Blanchflower said that happened before the global financial crisis flared up, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. The intensification of the credit squeeze that followed ``has yet to be fully felt'' by companies and households, he said.

The current financial crisis may turn out to be ``more significant'' than the aftermath of the 1929 stock market crash, Blanchflower said. Still, ``it is a mistake to be overly gloomy'' because ``Britain's economy will, eventually, recover,'' he said.

In questioning after his speech, Blanchflower said that policy makers need to guard against ``systemic failure'' of the banking system. ``We're not out of the woods yet,'' he said.

Policy makers may need to reconsider how to cope with rising asset prices while consumer-price inflation remains subdued, Blanchflower said in his speech.

``The key economic policy over the last decade has been the unsustainable rise in asset and equity prices and the associated credit boom,'' Blanchflower said. ``Does mainstream theory have an adequate explanation of why things have gone so badly wrong? It is not clear that it does. It may well be time for a rethink.''

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Barclays' Leveraged Loan Sale Falters, Wall Street Journal Says

By Patricia Kuo

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc sold about 30 percent of the $970 million of mainly leveraged loans it is selling to wind up a derivatives agreement with hedge fund Black Diamond Capital Management LLC, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The small percentage of assets sold suggests bidders want too much of a bargain for the assets as the volume of leveraged loans for sale soars, the newspaper said, without saying where it got the information.

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Mizuho $7 Billion Loss Turned on Toxic Aardvark Made in America

By Finbarr Flynn
More Photos/Details

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Alexander Rekeda, a 34-year-old Ukrainian-born math whiz, turned in his BlackBerry and security card and sent an e-mail to his bosses at Calyon, the investment- banking unit of Credit Agricole SA. Then, along with ten colleagues from the New York structured-finance team, who fired off similar messages, he walked two blocks down the Avenue of the Americas to Mizuho Financial Group Inc.

It was Dec. 8, 2006, and Rekeda's arrival was a coup for Mizuho, Japan's second-largest bank by revenue. A month earlier, it became the first Japanese lender to list on the New York Stock Exchange since 1989 -- a move hailed by John Thain, then chief executive officer of the bourse, as a sign that Mizuho was taking ``its place among the world's leading companies.''

The hires would prove a costly blunder. Rekeda, who became head of structured credit in the Americas, and his team led Mizuho into a business it knew little about, securities backed by U.S. subprime mortgages, where it lost 672 billion yen ($7.1 billion), more than any bank in Asia. Most of the losses were related to defaults on collateralized debt obligations.

Mizuho expects as much as 20 billion yen in potential further losses on bonds and bad loans related to bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., company spokeswoman Masako Shiono said on Sept. 16. Moody's Investors Service, citing ``questions regarding the effectiveness of Mizuho's risk management and its risk appetite,'' continues to give the bank a negative outlook.

``Mizuho never made a penny out of subprime in the good times, they just got left holding the can in the bad,'' says David Threadgold, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Asia Ltd. in Tokyo who has an ``underperform'' rating on the stock. ``They made a very poor decision to launch into the packaging of subprime products at the end of 2006.''

Toxic Assets

How a Japanese bank that traces its roots to 1864 made such a bold entry into the U.S. subprime securities market, and almost choked on the toxic assets it created, is a tale of overreaching and poor timing. It also illustrates how financial technology made in the U.S. wreaked havoc on the other side of the globe.

Many of the details are spelled out in a lawsuit Calyon filed against Mizuho in U.S. federal court seeking $750 million for ``covertly'' inducing its employees to quit. The case was settled out of court in September 2007 for an undisclosed amount. Shiono said Mizuho wouldn't comment for this article.

Rekeda, who has a master's degree in mathematics from Kiev State University of Economics in Ukraine and an MBA from the University of Connecticut, had built Calyon's CDO business over two years. He closed six deals for the French bank in 2006, according to an affidavit in the case.

Signing-On Fee

All six, including two with the celestial names Cetus and Orion, later defaulted as Paris-based Credit Agricole racked up more than 6.5 billion euros ($8.1 billion) in subprime losses. Rekeda, now 34, declined to be interviewed.

On Oct. 18, 2006, Rekeda and his team were offered an $11 million signing-on fee to defect to the Japanese bank, a Calyon lawyer said at a court hearing. Mizuho's plan to expand into the U.S. was hatched earlier that year, as Japanese lenders were recovering from a 14-year debt crisis that forced them to take $1.1 trillion in writedowns for bad loans.

Mizuho, formed in 2000 in a merger of three banks, beat out rivals Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. to win approval from U.S. regulators to set up a financial holding company. That enabled it to operate as a full-service investment bank.

As Mizuho President Terunobu Maeda said at a press briefing on May 15 this year, the bank had excess capital and ``needed to study'' the U.S. mortgage-backed securities business.

Bad Loans

Maeda, 63, a former chairman of the Japanese Bankers Association and an amateur gardener who doesn't use air conditioners at his home during Tokyo's humid summers to make an environmental point, became president of Mizuho in April 2002. The bank recorded a loss of 2.38 trillion yen that fiscal year as it wrote off bad loans accrued during three recessions in a decade. Maeda returned it to profitability the next year after reducing non-performing assets and through gains on investments in Japanese stocks.

While Mizuho was a newcomer to the CDO market in the U.S., it had experience arranging and selling similar investments in Japan and Europe. The company had ramped up its loan- securitization business, which Japanese banks were able to do without borrowers' consent after October 1998. Merrill Lynch & Co., Bear Stearns Cos. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. all helped Japanese banks repackage and market securities backed by corporate loans and mortgages.

Rising Delinquencies

Even so, Mizuho decided it needed help in the U.S. Talks with the Calyon team began in early 2006, when Douglas Munson, a sales director for the French bank, approached golfing buddy Theodore Ake, head of fixed income for Mizuho in New York, according to two people familiar with the negotiations. The size of the group and the amount of sign-on bonuses snowballed after Rekeda was brought into the discussion, the people said. Munson and Ake declined to comment.

By the time the deal was consummated, the market was turning. On Dec. 11, 2006, the same day Mizuho announced it was setting up an office in the U.S. to create asset-backed debt securities, Fitch Ratings said the outlook for U.S. subprime mortgage bonds was ``negative.'' It expected delinquencies on those loans to rise by 50 percent.

There was also confusion about the hiring deal. The Calyon team turned out to include more than the five people expected by Hitoshi Shimoyama, then deputy president of investment banking unit Mizuho Securities USA Inc., documents in the case allege.

``Mizuho did not even know the number or names of additional persons until shortly before they came,'' Shimoyama said in a March 17, 2007, affidavit.

Bonus Pool

Benjamin Lee, one of those who defected on Dec. 8, returned to the French bank five days later. He said he ``had been misled by Rekeda'' about the terms of employment at Mizuho, according to an affidavit he filed.

Lee said he was initially told by Rekeda that he could expect $1 million to $1.5 million from a bonus pool. He later learned there was a separate contract for him and other junior members of the group that didn't include a revenue-related bonus. Senior team members were entitled to share as much as 25 percent of revenue from completed transactions, court documents said.

Rekeda's group priced its first deal within 10 weeks, after the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the default rate on U.S. subprime loans reached 12.6 percent, the highest level since the first quarter of 2003.

Aardvark CDO

The deal was named after a squat animal with a pig-like snout that feeds on ants and termites. Incorporated as a special- purpose company in the Cayman Islands, Aardvark ABS CDO was an ugly concoction: 31 percent of its $1.5 billion of securities were backed by subprime loans, 23 percent by residential mortgages repackaged from other CDO deals, and 33 percent by Alt- A mortgages, a category just above subprime. The remaining 13 percent were prime loans.

One reason Rekeda was able to move so fast was that the deal had already been assembled by London-based Lloyds TSB Group Plc, which pulled out before completion, said three people familiar with the transaction. HarbourView Asset Management Corp., a unit of New York-based OppenheimerFunds Inc., stayed on as manager. Spokesmen for Lloyds and HarbourView declined to comment.

Moody's assigned its highest short-term rating of P-1 to $1.3 billion of the Aardvark securities. In the prospectus, Mizuho pledged to back 87 percent of the deal, meaning that the bank, rather than investors, was on the hook for most of the potential losses.

In the Pipeline

A subsequent Mizuho offering, Tigris CDO 2007-1, valued at $902 million in March 2007, was backed by the lowest investment- grade tranches of CDO deals arranged by other Wall Street firms, including Merrill, Lehman and Citigroup Inc., according to a report that month by Fitch Ratings. More than 80 percent of the securities in the CDO had Fitch's lowest investment rating, BBB-, which is nine grades below AAA.

Rekeda planned to bring at least nine more CDO deals to market within six months, the investment newsletter Asset-Backed Alert reported on May 11, 2007. The newsletter quoted him saying the bank had ``built up the pipeline.'' As of April 1, 2007, Mizuho Securities had amassed more than 550 billion yen in residential mortgage-backed securities and CDOs supported by home loans, according to the bank's financial statements.

One of those deals made it to market in June 2007: a special-purpose entity called Delphinus 2007-1. Although named after a constellation, its contents were hardly stellar. Three- quarters of its securities were based on subprime mortgages, according to a July 23 Fitch report.

Ratings Downgrade

About 80 percent of the deal was backed by credit-default swaps arranged by firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup and Wells Fargo & Co. Citing ``strong demand'' from investors, Mizuho increased the size of the deal that July to $1.6 billion from $1.2 billion.

That was eight days before two Bear Stearns funds were shut down, heralding the start of the subprime crisis. Less than three months later, on Sept. 27, Fitch put Delphinus on its watch list. The negative designation, Fitch analyst Kevin Kendra said at the time, was ``probably the quickest I've seen'' on a CDO. In other words, Mizuho struggled to find buyers for its CDOs and, as their values plummeted, the bank would have to absorb the loss.

Mizuho didn't tell investors about the extent of its exposure until November 2007, when it reported a 70 billion-yen loss on subprime-related securities in the first half ended Sept. 30. It also said it expected that figure to grow to 170 billion yen for the full year.

CDO Default

By December, Mizuho had halted its U.S. CDO business. It fired Rekeda and at least four others on the team, putting an end to the bank's one-year experiment with American financial technology.

In January, as delinquencies on loans that backed Mizuho's CDOs increased, Aardvark, Tigris and Delphinus went into default. Subsequent downgrades of all of the tranches of Tigris and Aardvark required the bank to write down the value of the CDOs.

Mizuho had to inject 150 billion yen of capital into its securities unit, shelve a planned merger with Shinko Securities Co. and axe 300 jobs. The bank's shares lost half their value in the fiscal year ended March 31.

When a record 2,474 shareholders gathered at the Tokyo International Forum on June 26 for the bank's annual meeting, they were out for blood.

``The responsibility rests at the top with Maeda,'' Kenjiro Endo, 66, who bought Mizuho shares when he retired from chipmaker Toshiba Corp. six years ago, said after the meeting. ``If this were overseas, he'd resign.''

`Market Crashed'

Endo may have had a point. Citigroup CEO Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince, Merrill's Stan O'Neal and Wachovia Corp.'s Kennedy Thompson were all forced to resign after significant subprime losses. In Japan, where executives often bow and apologize for their mistakes, Mizuho's Maeda stood firm.

``Unfortunately, from October, the securitized investment- product market crashed, and even if we tried to sell the investments, it wasn't possible,'' Maeda said at the shareholders' meeting. ``When the market stops functioning, there is no measure to avoid it.''

Maeda also defended the bank's decision to enter the U.S. securities market.

``It's not because of some management failure that things turned out like this,'' he said. ``I am very sorry to tell you, doing nothing, and not taking risk, is not a bank.''

Failure to Hedge

Yet Mizuho might have incurred half as many losses if it had accelerated the sale of subprime-related investments and hedged more bets with credit-default swaps, according to a person familiar with its U.S. operations. The bank, fearing it would lose as much as two-thirds of its potential profit, decided not to hedge, the person said. Mizuho declined to comment.

``The holding company was unable to grasp the size of losses at Mizuho Securities when the subprime problem emerged,'' said Keisuke Moriyama, a Tokyo-based analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. ``Mizuho has a governance problem. How it fixes it is the biggest issue that faces the group.''

The ultimate cost to Mizuho may be greater than the 672 billion yen it wrote down. The bank, the first in Japan to put money in U.S. financials amid the credit crunch, invested $1.2 billion in Merrill in January. The Wall Street bank's shares have slumped 70 percent this year.

`Missed Out'

Now Mizuho is sidelined as other Japanese banks swoop in to buy troubled U.S. assets. Nomura purchased some of Lehman's Asian and European businesses in September, and Mitsubishi UFJ, the nation's largest bank, acquired 21 percent of Morgan Stanley for $9 billion.

``Mizuho has totally missed out,'' said Amir Anvarzadeh, director of Japanese equity sales at KBC Financial Products in London. ``They've been very aggressive overseas, trying to grow this business organically, and some of those ambitions have come back to haunt them.''

Although it was the biggest loser, Mizuho wasn't the only Japanese bank that got hurt. In all, 672 domestic banks and credit cooperatives had 1.5 trillion yen in losses from overseas securitized products, the country's financial regulator reported Sept. 4.

Rekeda, meanwhile, has moved on. He now works for Guggenheim Capital Markets LLC in New York, along with Paolo Torti and Xavier Capdepon, who both followed him from Calyon to Mizuho. Their new jobs: selling distressed CDOs at a discount.

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九十九電機が民事再生法申請　負債110億円

　東京・秋葉原のパソコン専門店、九十九電機（東京・千代田、鈴木淳一社長）は30日、東京地裁に民事再生法の適用を申請した。秋葉原に進出してきた大手家電量販店などと差別化するため海外製のパソコンなどの輸入を増やしてきたが、シンジケートローンの償還などで資金繰りが悪化した。負債総額は約110億円。営業は続ける。

　九十九電機は1947年創業。秋葉原電気街を代表する老舗店舗としてマニア層などに支持されていた。2007年8月期の売上高は約319億円。(13:24)

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マルハニチロ、加漁業会社と提携解消　アイスランド銀破綻影響

　マルハニチロホールディングス（ＨＤ）は30日、カナダの漁業会社「クリアウオーター・シーフーズ」（ハリファクス市）と合意していた資本・業務提携を解消すると発表した。クリア社の取引銀行の1つに実質破綻したアイスランドのグリトニル銀行が含まれており、非上場化に伴う負債の借り換えが困難になった。アイスランドの金融危機が日本にも飛び火した格好だ。

　マルハニチロＨＤは、クリア社が非上場化した後に、クリア社の株式を100％保有する持ち株会社に出資することで合意し、今月7日に提携を発表していた。だがグリトニル銀が政府管理下に置かれたことで、クリア社が負債借り換えに必要な融資を合意期日の10月末日までに受けられなくなったという。

　両社は以前から水産物の調達で取引関係があり、今後も取引は継続する。マルハニチロＨＤは「金融市場の正常化後に再度（出資を）検討したい」としている。(12:43)

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日本水産、魚肉ソーセージを５割増産　新設備、２工場で稼働

　日本水産は魚肉ソーセージの生産能力を約5割増強する。10月末に国内二工場で新設備を稼働させ、2007年度に約210万ケース（1ケースは約百本入り）だった年間生産量を09年度に330万ケースに引き上げる。同社は魚肉ソーセージの最大手で、内食・健康志向に支えられ08年度の同事業の売上高は前年度比2割増の140億円超となる見通し。増産により需要増に対応する。

　増強するのは八王子総合工場（東京都八王子市）と戸畑工場（北九州市）。充てんや包装の設備を導入し、主力の「おさかなのソーセージ」などを増産する。投資額は5億円。魚肉ソーセージは原料である白身魚の価格高騰で値上げしてきた。だが、価格は一本（75グラム）100円程度と畜肉ソーセージに比べると割安で、売れ行きは好調だ。(07:00)

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サウジに初の女子総合大創設　近代化へ国王決断

　【カイロ30日共同】イスラム教の中で最も戒律が厳しく保守的なワッハーブ派を国教とし女性の車両の運転も禁止してきたサウジアラビアが、女子専用の初の総合大学を創設することになり、首都リヤド郊外で29日、建設工事の起工式が行われた。女性が学ぶ機会を得ることが難しかった医学、経営学、外国語などを教える。ロイター通信が伝えた。

　サウジの宗教指導層は女性の教育、労働の機会拡大に強く抵抗してきたが、近代化に向け女性の雇用拡大は不可欠と考えたアブドラ国王が、女子大の創設に踏み切った。アッサーフ財務相によると完成は2年後の予定。

　ロイターによると、私立の女子単科大学は既に複数ある。(13:52)

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外国人被告の模擬裁判、通訳が対応に苦慮

　来年5月の裁判員制度開始を控え、外国人が被告になる強制わいせつ事件を想定した模擬裁判が28、29日、東京地裁の6法廷で開かれ、3法廷が報道陣に公開された。各法廷でペルシャ語、中国語（北京語）、韓国語の通訳を介した審理が行われ、いずれも懲役3年、執行猶予3―5年の有罪判決だった。

　各法廷には通訳を2人1組で配置。検察官、弁護人が質問を短く区切るなど配慮し、大きな問題は生じなかった。ただ、検察官の被告人質問に弁護側が異議を申し立て、裁判長が意見調整した場面では、法律用語が飛び交ったためペルシャ語の通訳がすべてを訳しきれず、検察側が質問をやり直すシーンもあった。

　法廷通訳を務めた北京語通訳歴10年以上の朱韻菲さんは「裁判員は自身の言葉で質問するため、意図をよく理解して訳さないといけない」と話し、質問に慣れていない裁判員の言葉の通訳の難しさを指摘した。(07:00)

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アパマンショップ株主訴訟、経営陣に賠償命令　東京高裁

　賃貸仲介のアパマンショップホールディングスが子会社を完全子会社化した際の株式買い取り価格（1株5万円）が高すぎるとして、アパマンの株主が大村浩次社長ら経営陣に約1億3000万円を同社に賠償するよう求めた株主代表訴訟の控訴審判決が29日、東京高裁であった。柳田幸三裁判長は「買い取り価格に合理的根拠はなく高すぎる」として、経営陣に約1億2600万円の支払いを命じた。

　同裁判長は判決理由で、監査法人の評価などから子会社の株式価額を1株1万円程度と認定。アパマンの2005年9月期の当期純利益が約4億7000万円だったのに、子会社株の買い取り総額が約1億5000万円（3160株）と高額だったと指摘し、「経営判断として許された裁量の範囲を逸脱している。経営会議で異議なく了承し取締役としての任務を怠った」と述べた。

　判決によると、アパマンは06年、グループ再編のため、賃貸マンション事業を行っていた非上場子会社の完全子会社化を計画。1株5万円で買い取ったところ、アパマン株主が「買い取り価格が高すぎ、損害を与えた」として提訴した。

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覚せい剤取締法違反：東京の白金・麻布、薬物汚染　延べ２万人に、密売イラン人逮捕
　◇密売イラン人、所持容疑で逮捕

　東京都港区の住宅街で主婦や会社員ら延べ約２万人に覚せい剤などの薬物を密売したとして、関東信越厚生局麻薬取締部が密売グループのリーダーでイラン国籍の男を覚せい剤取締法違反（営利目的所持）容疑などで逮捕していたことが分かった。麻布や白金などエリア別に「売り子」を置き、昨年１１月以降だけで約２億円を売り上げたとみられる。リーダー格の摘発は珍しく、麻薬取締部は高級住宅街を舞台にした薬物汚染の全容解明を進める。【武内亮】

　逮捕されたのは、住所不定、アボルファズル・ザルバリ被告（４２）＝覚せい剤取締法違反罪などで既に起訴。

　調べでは、ザルバリ被告はイラン国籍の売り子役の男４人＝同＝と共謀し、今年５～７月、港区のマンションやアパートの一室で、覚せい剤約２０グラム、コカイン約４２グラムなどを販売目的で所持していた疑い。１日平均約７０人に売りさばき、１カ月の売り上げは多い時で約２０００万円に上ったという。５月以降、順次逮捕した４人の供述からザルバリ被告が浮上し、７月に港区の路上で逮捕した。

　ザルバリ被告は９６年ごろから偽造旅券で密入国を繰り返し、東京都内や中部地方で覚せい剤などを密売。初めは繁華街などで売っていたが、防犯カメラの設置が増え、警察の取り締まりも強化されたことから住宅街に目をつけ、最近は活動の中心を港区などの高級住宅街に移していた。

　手口は、顧客の連絡先があらかじめ入力された「客付き携帯」と呼ばれる携帯電話を入手し、自ら売買内容を交渉。話がまとまると、麻布、高輪、白金の３地区を担当するそれぞれの売り子に受け渡しの日時や場所を指示していた。受け渡しはほとんどが住宅街の路上。特定の売買拠点を作ると取り締まりの対象になりやすいと判断したとみられる。売り子の男は、六本木のクラブなどで勧誘していたという。

　調べに対し、ザルバリ被告は容疑を否認しているが、４人は「ザルバリ被告の指示でやった」と供述、「日本人は金があるしまじめに払うからやりやすかったが、こんなに薬物を買う人がいて日本は大丈夫かと心配になった」と話しているという。

　麻薬取締部の調べによると、ザルバリ被告のグループのようなイラン人の密売組織は都内に約１０グループあるとみられる。

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日銀松江支店の情報流出：「風評被害」松江の酒店、資料流出で破産

　日本銀行松江支店（松江市）の内部資料が３月、ファイル交換ソフト「Ｗｉｎｎｙ（ウィニー）」の暴露ウイルスでインターネット上に流出した問題で、資料に「破綻（はたん）懸念先」と実名で記された松江市内の酒店が松江地裁に破産を申し立て、手続き開始が決定された。「風評被害で資金繰りが悪化した」として、日銀側と進めていた補償交渉が進展しないまま経営破綻した。負債総額は１億５０００万円。

　関係者によると、資料流出後、酒店は卸業者から取引中止や取引量を制限されるなどして、売り上げが減少。一部卸業者からは以前の取引量に戻す条件として、保証金約３０００万円を求められるなどし、経営を断念した。

　酒店の経営者は、破産手続きをしたことで自宅や土地に抵当権を設定され、アパートを借りる資金もない。経営者は「提訴も視野に入れている」と言う。日銀松江支店の臼井正樹次長は「交渉の内容は話せない。ご迷惑をおかけした企業には申し訳ない」と話している。

　資料は３月下旬、松江支店の男性職員（４月に自主退職）がデータを持ち帰って私有パソコンで作業し、暴露ウイルスに感染、流出した。

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南極観測：越冬隊員に良い「しらせ」　定員増え滞在短く

　今年は日本の南極観測の転換点になりそうだ。２５年間活躍した南極観測船「しらせ」が今夏退役、来年から新しい観測船「しらせ」が就航する。これまでよりも２０人多い８０人の観測隊員が乗船可能となることを機に、観測隊の運用が半世紀ぶりに見直されようとしている。【西川拓、田中泰義】

　「アメリカなんか３カ月以上別居していると離婚の理由になるとかいっていますね」

　「今の時代、１年４カ月は長すぎる……」

　観測５０年を記念した「ニッポン南極観測隊－人間ドラマ５０年」（小野延雄、柴田鉄治編、丸善刊）に、観測隊経験者の本音がにじむ。

　観測は夏隊と越冬隊に分かれ、それぞれ３０人前後で活動。隊員は通常、１１月末に空路で豪州に入った後、観測船で昭和基地に移動する。夏隊の任期は翌年３月までの４カ月間。越冬隊の任務期間は、１１月から２年後の３月まで、１年４カ月に及び、家族や恋人との長い別れが待ち受ける。

　戦後日本の南極観測は１９５７年に始まった。当初、未知の大陸へのあこがれから長期滞在を希望する研究者は多かった。だが、一時は新しらせの建造が危ぶまれるほど南極観測の意義が問われるなかで、人材を送り出してきた大学側も協力を渋るようになってきた。理由は長期にわたる“拘束”だった。

　だからといって、観測船が基地と豪州の間を何度も行き来すればことは済むわけではない。隊員が帰国できる機会は増えても、その間、現地の貴重な足であるヘリコプターが利用できないなど、観測活動への影響が懸念されるからだ。観測隊運用の見直しは進まなかった。

　その流れを変えたのが来年に就航する新「しらせ」。今夏引退した「しらせ」と比べて飛躍的に性能アップするわけではない。ただ、これまで観測隊員は６０人しか乗れなかったが、新「しらせ」の方は８０人の乗船が可能となる。観測態勢の充実が図れることで、運用そのものの見直しの機運が高まった。

　観測船というハード部分の更新を受け、観測活動の中核を担う国立極地研究所（東京）はこのほど、観測の効率化などを骨子とする報告書をまとめた。提案しているのが、一部隊員の基地入りに際しての空路の積極的利用である。

　これまで隊員の移動は観測船頼みで、豪州から基地までは半月ほどかかる。だが、スキー付きの双発機を使えば、移動期間を大幅に短縮でき、実質５０日ほどだった夏隊の活動期間は１４０日に延長可能。それを受けて越冬隊の滞在期間は短くできるというわけだ。

　報告書は増えた定員枠を研究者だけではなく、教員や芸術家などに門戸を開くよう提言している。米アラスカ大に留学経験を持つ日本画家の加藤晋さん（５３）は「通常では体験できない世界に新たな美がある。ぜひ訪ねたい」と期待を寄せる。

　ハードルは予算確保。同研究所の白石和行副所長は「南極観測は継続が重要。その意義を多角的な視点で訴えていきたい」と話す。

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年金記録：訂正４２万件が未処理　社保庁、処理追いつかず

　記録漏れなどが見つかって年金記録が訂正されながら、受給者の年金額が変更されない未処理ケースが７月末時点で４２万件に上ることが分かった。ねんきん特別便を受け取った受給者からの記録訂正申請が急増する一方、社会保険庁の業務処理が追いついていない。

　社保庁によると、受給者の年金額訂正の受け付けは７月１カ月間で１１万３０００件だが、実際に年金額が変更されたのは２万４０００件にとどまった。記録漏れの確認を促すねんきん特別便はこれまでに３３９５万件送られ、「訂正あり」と回答したのは２２９万人に達した。未回答者は８６８万人もおり、訂正申請はさらに増えそうだ。

　社保庁は担当を１月の３８人から１０月には約２００人に増やしたが、依然処理は遅れている。【野倉恵】

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前立腺がん：患者がＸＭＲＶウイルス感染　日本人で初検出

　日本の前立腺がん患者が、ＸＭＲＶと呼ばれるウイルスに感染していたことが、大阪府赤十字血液センターや京都大などの調査で分かった。米国の前立腺がん患者で感染が確認されているが、日本人では初めて。ウイルスががんの原因かどうかは不明だが、実態調査が急がれそうだ。２７日、岡山市で開かれた日本ウイルス学会で発表した。

　研究チームは、事前承諾を得た前立腺がん患者３０人と、献血で集まった血液から無記名・無作為に選んだ１３６人の血清を調べた。その結果、２人のがん患者と献血した５人から、ウイルスの陽性反応がみられ、このうち患者１人が詳細検査で感染が確認された。

　ＸＭＲＶはマウスの白血病ウイルスに近いとされ、前立腺がん患者では０６年に米国で初めて感染が確認された。がん細胞の周辺組織が感染していたことから、がん発症を誘発している可能性が指摘されている。また、細胞の増殖抑制にかかわる遺伝子の一部が変異した患者で感染率が高い傾向がある。

　国内の感染者では、一部の米国人患者で見つかった遺伝子の変異はなかったが、ウイルスのＤＮＡは一致。研究チームは両者から検出されたウイルスは同一と判断した。

　前立腺がんにウイルスの関与が確認されれば、ワクチン予防が可能となる。研究チームはがんとウイルスの関係、感染経路などの分析を急ぐ。

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東京23区の賃貸住宅、９月の成約件数19％減　投資向け供給鈍る

東京で賃貸住宅に対する引き合いが低迷している。不動産情報サービス大手のアットホーム（東京・大田）が28日まとめた９月の賃貸物件市場動向によると、東京23区内の賃貸アパート・マンションの成約件数は前年同月比18.9％減の3310件だった。景気の低迷により人口移動が鈍ったためとみられる。

物件の内訳では、23区内の賃貸マンションの成約件数が前年比20％減少した。全体の半分を占める床面積が30平方メートル未満の投資用ワンルームマンションなど「シングル世帯向け新築物件の供給減少が響いた」（アットホーム）。アパートは同13％減った。

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Russo-Finnish-Chinese economic forum to open in Helsinki

30.10.2008, 03.26

HELSINKI, October 30 (Itar-Tass) - Energy, transport, timber industry and environment will be the key item on the agenda of a Russian-Finnish-Chinese economic forum. It’s opening in Helsinki on Thursday and will be attended by about 300 businessmen and politicians.

The Finnish Ministry organized the meeting for Employment and Economic Development, the Finnish Foreign Ministry, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

A representative of the Russian commercial office in Finland told Itar-Tass that the forum’s aim was to expand and diversify trade, economic and innovative cooperation.

Government representatives of Finland, Russia and China will participate in plenary meetings. National experts will brief their colleagues on industrial strategies and vital projects in their countries during roundtable meetings. They will discuss the possibility of expanding cooperation in this sector of the economy.

The participants in the forum will visit several Finnish companies. The experts will present their views on the potential for future cooperation between the three countries at the last closing meeting.

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USA too naive to believe that its sanctions hurt Russia’s arms export
29.10.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/106636-usa_russia_sanctions-0

USA’s single-handed sanctions against Russia’s defense export giant, Rosoboronexport, is an attempt of unfair competition, although the sanctions will not hurt the activity of the Russian enterprise, President Dmitry Medvedev believes.

“I have already said before that we believe that such sanctions are visionless,” Medvedev said at a session of the defense cooperation committee Tuesday. “This is unfair competition, it is simply an attempt to cut off suppliers. However, this decision is practically non-sensitive for us, and those, who made the decision, must take this into their consideration,” Medvedev said. The president added that Russia’s backlogs of defense export orders enlarged considerably and was currently evaluated at over $30 billion, Interfax reports.

Medvedev reminded that Russia conducted defense cooperation with 81 countries of the world. Russia has been strengthening cooperation with many of its partners lately, for example, a framework agreement in the field of defense cooperation has been recently signed with Saudi Arabia.

Russia ’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier that the USA’s single-handed sanctions against Rosoboronexport for its cooperation with Iran were absolutely unacceptable.

Dmitry Medvedev also said that Russia would pay serious attention to other countries’ efforts aimed to provide military support to the incumbent administration of Georgia.

“We know that several countries were supplying weapons to Georgia, pushing Saakashvili’s regime towards aggression. We are also aware of the fact that those countries plan to supply even more weapons to the regime,” Medvedev said Tuesday.

“Unfortunately, several of our close partners participated in the affair. We won’t forget it and we will obviously take it into our consideration in our practical policies. I would like everyone to know it,” the Russian leader said.

“We will continue our work to deliver weapons and military hardware to our partners with the only purpose of enhancing their defensive ability,” Medvedev said. He also continued with saying that many members of the international community do not stick to such an approach, which was proved during the armed conflict in the Caucasus in August of this year.

Russia ’s chief military attorney, Sergei Fridinsky, stated in September that the weapons and military hardware, which Georgia used in its aggression against South Ossetia, had been delivered from 14 different countries. He added that Georgia received most of its weapons from the United States and Ukraine.

Ukraine does not deny the sales of its weapons to Georgia, although Ukrainian officials emphasize that arms sales to Georgia were never prohibited. Spokespeople for the Ukrainian administration said that the weapons had been delivered to Georgia on a legal basis and prior to the start of the military conflict in S. Ossetia. Furthermore, Ukraine intends to continue its arms export to Georgia in accordance with previously concluded contracts.

Russia in its turn intends to develop military cooperation with members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to create the joint missile defense system.

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Mr. Saakashvili, it is time to say goodbye
30.10.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/106641-saakashvili-0

The Fat Lady has sung, the BBC, mouth piece of the British Neocons, has declared that, yes, Georgia and Saakashvili in particular are guilty of the murder of civilians in South Ossetia. Of course, they quickly then backed it up by saying Russia was wrong in defending those civilians being butchered by the Georgians. After all, we would not want Russia and the Russian people to feel they were right, even when they were, now would we?

Anyways, moving right along, dear reader, we return to our useful fool, Saakashvili. Well, when one of the key propaganda organs of the Anglo-American Trotskyte Neocons declares you in the wrong and you are a petty dictator of a small nation and one, to boot, presently and from day one on the Neocon payroll, that can only mean one thing...you are done, yesterday's news, kaput.

To boot, the opposition now plans marches on the 7th of November, the day that Saakashvili sent his Anglo-American trained goons in to beat the opposition to the ground in 2007. Back then, the Anglo-American Trotskytes still cared about their puppet, so they made a few noises about his assault upon unarmed peaceful demonstrators and than quickly blamed the demonstrations on Russia, surely not on the corruption and autocracy of their favorite puppet. This year promises to be different.

Now that the puppet has been used to try to restart the Cold War and failed. Now that most of the sensible folks of Europe have told the Anglo-American Trotskytes to go pound sand and the evidence is mounting daily that Georgia is a rogue state in every definition of the word and the people will be rising up against the Soros paid, CIA/MI6 controlled puppet, the Anglo-Americans are moving to keep ahead of the situation. It is obvious that Saakashvili is useless, worse than useless now, so a new replacement must be picked, one picked by the Neocons before the Georgians manage to pick one themselves. Oh sure, just like the last 3 times, the pick will look like it came from the people but they are an easy bunch to fool.

But what about Saakashvili? Surely a man in his situation might turn to Russia for help, except for that whole little August war thing and Russia having declared him a war criminal. Can't go there. To Europe? No, to much of a liability. Azerbaijan and Turkey have both declared their worries about his fitness to rule so they are probably out. Surely not the Armenians, not after what he's done against his own Armenians. Ukraine might be an option, at least as long as Yushchenko, the withered Orange is still hanging on the branch, but that too might not be for long.

Gosh, few choices. Its times like these one checks his life insurance policy to make sure it is paid up, the West does not like loose ends.

Stanislav Mishin

The article has been reprinted with the kind permission of Stanislav Mishin and can be found on his blog Mat Rodina

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Why Russian business can not get Western clients
29.10.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/business/companies/106638-russian_business-0

Having spent quite some time working on developing Russian suppliers, being Russian myself and understanding Westerners and Western Business, please allow me to give the following treatise for advice.

While Russian quality and technical expertise are generally quite good to over all superior, it is the so called business office, the decision makers and their staffs, that doom Russian industry to under representation in the world of manufactured goods. Why?

The simple reason is psychological. Russian businessmen: 1. Do not understand the Western psychology in the least and 2. Have a generally higher self opinion of their own intelligence, wisdom and cleverness than evidence would uphold.

It is written in the Bible: “When pride comes, then comes disgrace, but with humility comes wisdom”.

This, these businessmen, these heads of corporations, should contemplate first and then read on the rest of this treatise.

To begin with, this is not the Soviet Union, customers will not come to you and beg you to do their business. As silly as this notion may sound to many Westerners, this was the reality of the Soviet Union and is still the mindset of many older Russian businessmen. A corollary of this is: if I do not know you exist, I will not bring any business to you. Thus, and listen very carefully to this point, you must advertise. That is correct; you must invest money to get your name and your product out on the market.

Do not forget, this is a global market and there is absolutely nothing unique about Russia that would in and of itself, drive business to your Russian corporation. On expertise there is competition from the Germans, Italians, Koreans, Japanese and others. On price there is the rest of Eastern Europe, China and India. A simple example of this: the OTC (Offshore Technology Conference), the biggest oil and gas conference in the world, held yearly in Houston, Texas, USA. Of the 2,400+ companies that were represented there for the 2008 event, 3, that’s right, THREE were Russian. There were over thirty Chinese companies, along with various Chinese ministries and about as many Indian companies. Guess who will get more business?

Russian companies going to Russian expos is fine if you want to attract Russian business, it is all but pointless if you are trying to get foreigners to come trade their time and money for your goods or services.

Further, discard the notion that the Western Corporation is both rich and yet stupid or foolish. The only people who are rich and stupid are those who inherit their money, not those who earned it. Large international corporations do have fools amongst them, like any human organization, but they are not the majority but a small minority. Those of us who deal in international business, often know more about your business, from the financial side, than you do. So go ahead and drop the idea that you can hang spaghetti off of the inastrantsa (foreigner’s) ears.

Now on to the business. It is true, that most Western business initially does not run on relationships, quite the opposite, relationships are developed last, after business is already moving forward. This is of course the opposite of eastern (and thus Russian) companies. When foreigners send inquiries and even when they show up the first or sometimes the second, time, they are often ignored or given very little attention. Usually, this is will kill any chances of moving forward, period. Few Westerners will continue to push if this is the treatment their inquiries receive. Thus, when you get an inquiry, be it by email, phone call, fax or in person, it should always be treated as a chance to earn money, not an interruption of your day or your staff’s day. Do not wait till you get the second or third inquiry before taking it seriously, most of the time there will be no second or third inquiry.

Next, do not take two or three months to respond. In the West a standard response time is 1 to 2 weeks, that’s right: 5-10 business days. Indians may take a month, which is really stretching it. The average Russian time is two or more months. Again, there is nothing so special about your company that any Western businessman will stand around and wait for you to get them a quote, when you feel like it. If an RFQ (request for quotes, in other words, a bid) is run and nine out of ten companies return their quotes, by the time the Russian company gets around to sending their quote in, often time the decisions are already made and their work is simply deleted or filed away for later (if ever) review.

The business world does not wait.

Worst yet, the Russian business attitude is one of: if there is nothing to communicate I will not communicate. So while the slow as a snail quoting process is moving forward, the customer is absolutely in the dark. Often times inquiry emails or calls go unanswered. To a Western business, this is the same as telling them to go to Hell…and most will, in frustration, take their business elsewhere.

Now that we have finally submitted the quote, we get to the next point that usually kills any chance of business going forward 1. Pride and 2. Traditional haggling. Pride: the Russian businessman often thinks he is the smartest in the room (which may or may not be true) and that his opposite is a rich fool (rarely if ever true…this stereotype of foreigners has been around with us eastern Slavs for 1,200 years it’s time for it to die). Accept the fact that more than likely, the foreigner knows his business, knows what proper prices are. He has come to Russia to get 1. A high quality good for 2. A low price.

That is correct, Russia is a low cost country. With a work force that gets paid about 1/4th that of Western Europe. With steel that is 20% cheaper, energy that is 30-50% cheaper, taxes that are 30% cheaper, Western businesses come to Russia to save money and many leave very disappointed. Why? Because the greed and pride factors, along with a haggling culture, drive most initial quotes to be as high or higher than the Western industries. If I have a German supplier, why on earth would I go to Russia just to pay German or close to German prices? The answer is simple, the answer is one that Indian and Chinese businessmen understand and that Russian businessmen refuse to consider, the answer is: I would not. Especially when the German supplier often gives better service.

After having had to fight just to have a quote request taken seriously and than having to wait for months to get a quote, to get a quote that is so outrageous is simply too much for most Westerners. True, the Russian businessman may be expecting the would-be client to come back with a price 20% or 30% lower and thus haggle it out, but it simply will never get to this point. Why?

Because even if the Westerner is not outright turned off by the ridiculous price, when Westerners haggle over prices it is usually within the 5-10% range. So when the Western would-be client, puts in his logic formula of 5-10%, the price given by the Russian side, will still be way to high to bother with and thus Western monies will go to Indians, Chinese, Brazilians and others who all thank the Russian businessman for his pride, since this pride feeds their wallets.

Now, only because I am as generous as I am, I will impart one last bit of wisdom.

Suppose you have finally gotten the Western business as a client and it is time to raise prices, what now? Well, the typical Russian supplier method of dealing with Russian clients is something along the lines of a mugging. The supplier will announce some ridiculous price increase, back it with absolutely nothing, giving a relatively short period of time to negotiate or respond and then stop production. This is absolutely the surest way to drive away any and all existing Western clients. I have no idea how many times I have heard from one would be supplier or another that they had business with so and so company and that after a year (and the aforementioned price increase) they just left.

Read this part very carefully! When asking for a price increase, first of all, ask, do not demand. There is a point, of course that if you are absolutely ignored you may threaten and cut off the customer, but do not start off with the stick. Remember, this is a relationship not a bar fight. Second of all, do not ask for some ridiculous price increase in expectation of haggling. This is no different than the quote process and will have the same results. Furthermore, have all your explanations and justifications prepared and in an easy format and prepare to show your supplier receipts to back this up. Most importantly: DO NOT STOP PRODUCTION. This is the worst of the worst actions from the view of a Western business.

So, armed with this knowledge, it is my hope that Russian business will be able to go forth and actually compete effectively, to be able to show the quality of the work that rarely gets out past the pride of its businesspeople and yes, swallowing the pride will be the hardest part of all.

Stanislav Mishin

The article has been reprinted with the kind permission of Stanislav Mishin and cabe found on his blog Mat Rodina

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Putin sees larger international role for Shanghai security group
12:06 | 30/ 10/ 2008

ASTANA, October 30 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's PM Vladimir Putin urged the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on Thursday to boost cooperation with observer countries and international organizations.

The prime ministers of Russia, China, and four Central Asian countries met on Wednesday for a two-day summit in Kazakhstan's capital to discuss measures to overcome the ongoing financial crisis.

"The first steps have been made in the past few months to involve observer nations into key SCO activities. This practice should continue," Putin said. Russia currently holds the rotating SCO presidency.

He also urged the group to develop its foreign contacts more actively and establish an emergency relief center within the organization.

The SCO, which is widely seen as a counterweight to NATO's influence in Eurasia, comprises Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. The group primarily addresses security issues, but has recently moved to embrace economic and energy projects.

Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Masimov suggested SCO finance ministers and central bank heads hold a meeting in the near future to discuss the situation "to minimize the risks and negative consequences" in the region amid the current financial crisis.

Masimov also proposed bringing together SCO agriculture ministers to discuss food supplies, export duties and other issues as part of a food security program.

The proposal was developed further by Kyrgyz Prime Minister Igor Chudnov, who suggested the organization draft a regional food security strategy.

Chinese government officials, businesses and banks are set to boost cooperation with SCO member-countries, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said.

The Chinese premier also urged action to minimize the impact of the global credit crunch on the region. He proposed facilitating trade and investment in the region and increasing transparency and coordination within the group to improve the regional business and investment climate.

According to Chinese statistics, China's trade within the SCO totaled $55.8 billion in the first eight months of 2008, up 35% year-on-year. The country expects to increase bilateral trade with SCO member countries to up to $100 billion this year.

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Russian international reserves down $31 bln in week

10:41 | 30/ 10/ 2008

MOSCOW, October 30 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves dropped by $31 billion, to $484.7 billion, in the week of October 17 - October 24, the Central Bank of Russia said Thursday.

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麻生首相、３年後に消費税増税　解散は当面先送りの意向
2008.10.30 21:01

　麻生太郎首相は３０日、総事業規模２６兆９０００億円の追加経済対策を政府・与党が決定したのを受けて首相官邸で記者会見し、財政健全化に向け３年後に消費税率を引き上げる意向を表明した。首相が消費税率引き上げの時期を明言したのは初めて。追加経済対策の一部を反映させた第２次補正予算案の今臨時国会への提出は「通るか通らないか、国会の対応を見る」と明言を避けた。衆院解散・総選挙の時期は「政局より政策、景気対策という世論が圧倒的に多い」と、当面先送りする意向を示した。

　また、早期の衆院解散を求めていた公明党との関係に触れ、「太田昭宏代表とは十分意思疎通が図れている。（解散を先送りしたことで）連立関係がおかしくなることはない」と強調した。記者会見に先立ち、首相は太田氏と会談した。

　首相は記者会見の冒頭、現在の経済情勢について「１００年に１度の暴風雨が荒れている。何より大事なことは生活者の暮らしの不安を取り除くことだと確信する」と訴え、今後は（１）景気対策（２）財政再建（３）改革による経済成長－の順で取り組む決意を示した。

　追加経済対策に関しては「スピード、これまでにない大胆なもの、重点を絞りばらまきにしない、赤字国債を出さない」をポイントに挙げた。とくに、経済対策の裏付けとなる財源については「安易に将来世代にツケをまわさない」と述べ、財政投融資特別会計の準備金などを充てる考えを示した。

　消費税に関しては「大胆な行政改革を行った後、経済状況を見た上で、３年後に消費税の引き上げをお願いしたい」と述べた。

　追加経済対策に伴う国の財政支出は総額５兆円。総額２兆円規模の定額給付金を全世帯に支給することや、地方の高速道路料金を土・日曜や休日は原則１０００円で走り放題にすることなどが柱となっている。

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事件報道がらみマジックの種明かし、違法ではない
2008.10.30 20:37
このニュースのトピックス：民事訴訟

　テレビ番組の事件報道で手品の種を暴露され損害を受けたとして、プロ・アマ手品師９８人が日本テレビとテレビ朝日に計約４２８万円の損害賠償を求めた訴訟の判決が３０日、東京地裁であった。佐久間邦夫裁判長は「事件報道に関連した種明かしで違法ではない」と原告の請求を棄却した。

　両テレビ局は平成１８年１１月、硬貨を加工したとして手品店経営者らが貨幣損傷等取締法違反容疑で逮捕されたことを伝えた報道番組で、硬貨を使った手品の種を紹介。原告側は、種が明かされると手品の価値がなくなるとして、ギミックコイン（手品用に加工したコイン）の購入価格の約７割を賠償請求した。

　佐久間裁判長は、番組の目的が事件報道だったと指摘し、「どのような行為が貨幣損傷にあたるかを説明するため、種を紹介することはやむを得ない」と報道は適法と判断。「ギミックコインの価値も違法に低下させていない」とした。

　また、原告側は「手品師自体が悪のような印象を与えている」と、名誉棄損による慰謝料の支払いも求めたが、「手品師一般を詐欺師扱いしたわけではない」などと退けた。

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伊藤ハム検査発表の６倍のトルエン　横浜市保健所
2008.10.30 20:25

　伊藤ハム東京工場（千葉県柏市）で製造し、神奈川、静岡、山梨３県の６生協でつくるユーコープ事業連合（本部・横浜市）が販売したウインナーソーセージからトルエンが検出された問題で、横浜市保健所は３０日、別の検体から最大１８８ｐｐｍのトルエン成分が検出されたと発表した。伊藤ハムの検査結果の約６倍に当たる。

　市によると、体重５０キロの人がウインナー２本を一生涯食べ続ければ健康被害が出る程度の量という。検査した１３商品中、８商品から３９～１８８ｐｐｍのトルエンが検出された。