Further instability possible, Bank says

Further instability possible, Bank says

By Norma Cohen and Paul J. Davies

Published: October 28 2008 00:03 | Last updated: October 28 2008 00:03

Britain’s financial system faces the possibility of further instability, with the health of insurers and hedge funds among the current areas of concern, the Bank of England warned on Tuesday.

In its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report, the Bank talked not only of significant risks remaining for the banking system – in spite of the £50bn bail-out that in recent weeks has shown signs of bringing some stability – but it also highlighted other potential worries.

Describing the instability in the global financial system as “the most severe in living memory”, Sir John Gieve, deputy governor for financial stability, said: “With a global economic downturn under way, the financial system remains under strain.”

Looking beyond the banks to other risks, the report said: “One risk is that leveraged investors, like hedge funds, may be forced to liquidate asset holdings due to tight credit conditions.”

It added that hedge funds have recently faced “additional funding pressures due to redemption requests and a risk is that these could increase”.

Meanwhile, insurance companies, while not overleveraged, offered other potential problems, not least if their investments fell below capital adequacy rules. Another risk would be credit ratings agencies downgrading insurance companies, which would undermine their liquidity because counterparties to any derivative trade would demand more collateral or higher charges.

The picture painted by the report is a far cry from that just six months ago, when recent events were portrayed as unlikely ever to occur.

Meanwhile, the report also warned that in the long term, banks must cut back their lending sharply and that recent infusions of government money are only a temporary measure aimed at making that process easier.

“For example, even after accounting for recently announced capital-raisings, which the UK government will help underwrite, the largest UK banks would need to shed around one-sixth of total assets to reduce leverage back to, say, 2003 levels,” the report said.

That implies a significant reduction in lending to homes and businesses, which could have painful effects on the wider economy. If banks try to do that within the next year, it will result in a sharp contraction of credit, the report showed.

Sir John called for a “fundamental rethink” of how regulators deal with risks in the global financial system and talked about the need to restrict banks’ ability to increase lending.

The report said the fragile state of banking worldwide is a reflection of the fact that neither regulators nor banks themselves understood fully the “potent interconnections between firms in the global financial system”.

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IMF firepower could soon run short

By Alan Beattie in Washington

Published: October 27 2008 18:57 | Last updated: October 27 2008 18:57

With its $2bn (£1.3bn, €1.6bn) rescue loan to Iceland and $16.5bn to Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund has started to dip into an arsenal that is full to the brim. Yet the IMF could soon run short of firepower.

In spite of the period of relative peace in recent years among emerging markets, the private armies of global finance have grown much faster than the fund’s store of ammunition.

The IMF, headed by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, has about $200bn in easily reachable money and another $50bn or so it can access rapidly. But Simon Johnson, a former IMF chief economist now at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says that is relatively small. “Maybe if the IMF had two trillion dollars it could be a serious global player,” he says. “But $200bn can go very quickly. There are a lot of countries in the same position as Ukraine, and you only need to add one or two of the really big countries to use it up.” Mr Johnson reckons that with other countries also in trouble, the IMF has probably already had to pencil in committing about a quarter of its $200bn over the next few months.

Despite a long and sometimes fractious discussion about funding and governing the IMF, it has not kept pace with the rapid rise in the size of global capital markets. Countries in trouble are normally supposed to be limited to three times “quota”, or their own financial contribution to the fund. Ukraine’s loan was eight times its quota; Iceland’s 11 times bigger.

But even stretching its resources does not produce overwhelming firepower. Investment bank analysts estimate, for example, that Ukraine needs to raise some $55bn-$60bn next year in external financing. And while most of that will be borrowed by the private sector rather than the government to which the IMF lends, it still illustrates the huge size of gross financial flows.

Nor is the IMF money likely to be the only cash on the table or even the biggest contribution in many crisis-hit countries. Iceland is seeking several billion dollars more from its Nordic neighbours to supplement the fund’s loan. If, as seems likely, the IMF agrees a loan to Hungary, it will follow emergency lending from the European Central Bank.

The administration of President George W. Bush used to argue that the IMF alone, not bilateral lenders, should be in charge of rescues. That doctrine, like several others, appears to have been discarded.

“The IMF has enough funds to play an active role in the smaller and poorer emerging market countries,” says Ken Rogoff, another former IMF chief economist. “But it doesn’t have the resources to be lender of last resort for a country of any size like Brazil, Turkey or Argentina. The fund cannot backstop crises in emerging markets the way the Fed can backstop the crisis in the US.”

The fund has insisted it stands ready to get money quickly to countries that need it and is considering granting rapid access to richer and more stable emerging market countries via a “liquidity swap facility”. But this only means getting existing resources out of the door faster. Increasing the money at its disposal is harder. Japan has floated the idea of lending some of its foreign exchange reserves – perhaps as much as $200bn – to the IMF for use in rescues: experts say Tokyo appears to be concerned that countries such as China or Russia will gain foreign policy leverage by bilateral loans. Other potential solutions would include the IMF creating more Special Drawing Rights, an intergovernmental currency.

But the main obstacle to the IMF single-handedly saving the world is not technocratic but political. Its member governments are wary of handing over that much power to a single institution.

Mr Rogoff says: “The IMF is a necessary part of fixing problems in emerging markets, as it has the expertise that almost no one else does. But it doesn’t, and probably shouldn’t, have the resources to do it alone.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

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The Short View: Currencies and the crisis

By John Authers

Published: October 27 2008 19:24 | Last updated: October 27 2008 19:24

If “IMF” and “G7” are in the headlines, it follows that the financial crisis is not going away. Rather, with the panic now concentrated in the foreign exchange markets, the danger to the world’s economy becomes all the more acute.

The G7’s warning that it was “concerned” about “excessive volatility” in the yen and its “implications for economic and financial stability”, was highly unusual. Markets took it as a signal that intervention could be imminent.

But it did not stop the yen rising. Westpac’s trade-weighted yen index has gained 39 per cent since a low last summer, and 29 per cent in the past three months alone.

This is terrible for exporters, and for Japanese investors, who tend to save overseas, and have lost much wealth.

The dollar, meanwhile, is up more than 24 per cent since its low in March, inflicting pain on private investors and exporters.

The IMF is helping countries with the opposite problem, of currency depreciation. For them, the great concern is the increase in the cost of their debt.

As the Ukrainian hryvnia and the Hungarian forint barely responded to the IMF’s help, and other eastern European currencies kept falling, there is a real risk of more intervention in the region.

Normally every exchange rate move has a winner and a loser, but this upheaval seems different. Countries that wanted their currencies to be strong see them weakening; those who wanted a weak currency have seen a strengthening. All trade grows more difficult.

Is there good news? A year ago, food and fuel prices were sparking riots in the developing world. Now, Dow Jones-AIG’s agricultural commodities index is 44 per cent from its peak and energy has fallen 56 per cent, in dollar terms.

Even in local currency, the emerging world should find basic materials a little easier to afford.

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Lagarde Says Intervention Would Be `Purely Japanese' (Update1)

By Sandrine Rastello and Simon Kennedy
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Japanese authorities may sell the yen for the first time since 2004 after the currency surged to its strongest in almost 13 years.

Speaking hours after the Group of Seven nations warned against the yen's ``excessive volatility,'' Lagarde foreshadowed a ``purely Japanese'' intervention to weaken it, saying in an interview that the G-7 had no plans to help.

That leaves investors testing Japan's resolve as the yen's advance erodes the earnings of exporters such as Canon Inc. and pushes stocks to a 26-year low. Japanese Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said the G-7 statement was ``effective'' at cooling volatility in the currency market and declined to comment on whether the government is considering intervening.

``Lagarde has weakened the force of the G-7's statement,'' said Chris Turner, head of foreign-exchange strategy at ING Groep NV in London. ``It still suggests the Japanese wanted permission to intervene so it provides some approval for going ahead with unilateral action.''

The global credit crunch is forcing investors to race from risk, prompting them to repay loans they previously took out in Japan to take advantage of the lowest interest rates in the industrial world. As a result, the yen has climbed 14 percent against the dollar this month and 30 percent versus the euro.

The yen traded at 93.25 per dollar as of 11:59 a.m. in Tokyo from 92.78 late yesterday in New York. It touched 90.93 on Oct. 24, the strongest since 1995.

`Effective'

``We released the G-7 statement based on the view that abrupt moves in currencies are negative for any nation,'' Nakagawa told reporters today. Currencies didn't move much since the statement, so ``in that sense, it was effective,'' he said.

The G-7 in yesterday's unscheduled statement expressed concern ``about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability.'' A JPMorgan Chase & Co. index showed major currencies whipsawing the most in at least 16 years.

In the interview in Montpellier, Lagarde said the statement came at the initiative of Japan and was aimed at showing G-7 support for the ``possible intervention of Japanese authorities, knowing this would be about a purely Japanese intervention.'' Asked specifically if the G-7 nations would together sell the yen, she said ``no.''

May Act Alone

Even without the support of counterparts, Japanese authorities may still act alone as they last did in March 2004, when they sold the yen at 103.52 per dollar. Vice Finance Minister Kazuyuki Sugimoto said yesterday that the government was prepared to act ``quickly'' in the currency market.

``It is mostly up to the Bank of Japan to act,'' said Roberto Mialich, Milan-based currency strategist at UniCredit MIB. ``There is a risk that the markets are being pushed to test the sustainability of the yen.''

The G-7 nations comprise the U.S., Japan, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K. and Canada. They haven't intervened together in currency markets since September 2000, when they sought to buoy the euro after it fell as low as 82.30 U.S. cents.

A study published this month by European Central Bank economist Marcel Fratzscher found the G-7's currency statements since 1975 proved most effective when followed by action such as the 1985 Plaza Accord to weaken the dollar and the Louvre Accord of two years later to boost it.

Without Action

The governments and central banks don't always back their talk with action. The last time the G-7 singled out a rising yen for criticism was in January 2000 and that wasn't followed by intervention. It also didn't act this year when the dollar fell to its lowest in trade-weighted terms since Richard Nixon decoupled it from gold in 1971, a drop that prompted the group to warn against ``sharp fluctuations'' in April.

Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's top currency official from 1997 to 1999, said yesterday that the statement may have been all Japan was able to secure from its G-7 colleagues.

Japan ``got the minimum,'' said Sakakibara, currently a professor at Waseda University in Tokyo. If the G-7 ``were to intervene, they'd do it without making a statement.''

The U.S. is wary of selling dollars as it relies on foreign capital to support its own markets and the weaker sterling, dollar and euro may help bolster their economies, analysts said. Intervening would also undermine the G-7's five-year lobbying of China to stop managing its currency.

Even if the Bank of Japan does seek to sell its currency, the ``chances of success are weak at best'' as the credit crunch stops the Japanese from investing abroad and prompts them to repatriate their money, said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency strategist at CMC Markets in New York.

Japanese Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano said an interest- rate cut by the central bank wouldn't be very effective either.

``Holding the rate at 0.5 percent or lowering it won't have much impact on the currency level,'' Yosano said in Tokyo today. ``I think the unwinding of carry trades and cashing out by funds are causing the yen to strengthen. The traditional link between currency rates and the Bank of Japan's interest rates has been broken.''

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Mitsui Mining May Develop Japan's First Coal Mine in 14 Years

By Yoshifumi Takemoto and Yasuro Komatsu

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Mitsui Mining Co., coke supplier to Japan's biggest steelmaker, is considering developing a mine in the northern part of the country, the first domestic coal project in 14 years.

``We will make a decision after watching the price movement and demand for coal,'' President Kiyoaki Ogura said in a Bloomberg television interview broadcast today, adding that the decision will be made by next year's spring season. ``We're also investigating the environmental impact.''

Mitsui Mining is searching for a mining block located about 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) away from an existing coal mine operated by its unit Hokkaido Sanko Petroleum Co. in Bibai city on the northern island of Hokkaido, Ogura said. The company is seeking a stable supply of coal because reserves at the current site are expected to dry up by March 31.

The unit produces 50,000 tons of coal for a power station operated by Hokkaido Electric Power Co. Sales of coal from the new mine would be limited to Hokaido Electric Power because transportation costs would increase if the material is shipped outside Hokkaido, Ogura said.

The shares fell 5.4 percent to 139 yen as of 9:24 a.m. on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

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Broken Securities Industry Still Has $20 Billion to Pay Bonuses

By Christine Harper and Serena Saitto

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Five straight quarters of losses and a 70 percent slide in its stock this year haven't stopped Merrill Lynch & Co. from allocating about $6.7 billion to pay bonuses.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, both still on track for profitable years, have set aside about $13 billion for bonuses after three quarters, down 28 percent from a year ago. Even some employees at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which declared the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history last month, will get the same bonus they received a year ago.

The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a $700 billion taxpayer bailout, public outcry over excessive pay and the demise of three of the biggest securities firms won't deter Wall Street from offering year-end rewards to employees on top of their salaries, compensation experts say.

``Critical producers and critical managers will be retained with the same bonus they had last year,'' said Robert Sloan, head of U.S. financial-services recruiting at Egon Zehnder International, a New York-based executive-search firm. ``The others will see sharp cuts.''

Goldman, the biggest and most profitable Wall Street firm until it opted to become a bank holding company last month, has set aside about $6.85 billion for bonuses, or an average of $210,300 for each employee, down 32 percent from $339,400 a year ago. Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest securities firm until it also converted to a bank, has $6.44 billion for bonuses, or $138,700 per person, down 20 percent from last year. Both firms accrue a fixed percentage of their revenue for compensation, so the decline in bonus pools matches the drop in revenue.

Merrill's Compensation

The money Merrill has set aside for bonuses equates to an average $110,000 for each of its 60,900 people, up from $108,000 a year ago because more than 3,000 jobs have been cut.

The bonus figures are based on estimates that about 60 percent of the compensation and benefits expenses reported by the companies will be paid in year-end bonuses, as occurred in past years. Average bonuses aren't an indication of how much any employee will receive, since payments range widely from assistants to top traders. Bonuses aren't paid until the end of the fiscal year, so firms could choose to reallocate the funds.

``We are in the process of determining appropriate levels of year-end compensation, and no decisions have been made,'' said Mark Lake, a spokesman at Morgan Stanley. Ed Canaday, a spokesman for Goldman in New York, declined to comment.

Merrill spokeswoman Jessica Oppenheim said the firm's accrued bonuses aren't down as much as those at Goldman and Morgan Stanley because the firm reduced expenses last year, when it also had a loss. Compensation costs are down 18 percent this year, compared with the first nine months of 2006, Merrill's last profitable year.

`Moratorium on Bonuses'

A worldwide economic slowdown, caused in part by the financial industry's losses, and a U.S. Treasury plan to spend $250 billion of taxpayer money buying stakes in banks, have made pay a political issue this year.

``There should be a moratorium on bonuses,'' Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, told reporters last week. ``If nobody gave them, there wouldn't be a competitive aspect.''

In Zurich, protesters blocked UBS AG's private-banking branch on Paradeplatz last week to seek curbs on executive pay after Switzerland's largest bank was forced to ask for government aid.

$145 Billion

``I'm just flabbergasted that the financial community has failed to show any sense of leadership on this issue and doesn't seem to understand how angry people are at them,'' said Nell Minow, editor of Corporate Library, a Portland, Maine-based corporate-governance research firm. ``They are just a bonus away from having the villagers come after them with torches.''

New York-based Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Lehman and Bear Stearns Cos. awarded their employees a cumulative $145 billion in bonuses from 2003 through 2007, according to estimates based on company reports. That's more than the annual gross domestic product of the Philippines. Last year the firms paid out a record $39 billion.

At the end of this year, companies may decide against paying the money accrued for bonuses and instead use part of it to cover severance costs, said Rose Marie Orens, a New York-based partner at Mercer, the human resources consulting unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos., who specializes in executive compensation for financial- service companies. Goldman and Morgan Stanley end their fiscal year in November, and Merrill's ends in December.

Lehman Bankruptcy

``Whether what you see is what they're going to pay, you can't tell yet,'' she said. ``It's highly unlikely they'll add to those numbers and more likely they'll bring them down.''

Lehman filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15. Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns were rescued in emergency sales to Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are each receiving $10 billion of capital from the government.

Bank of America is offering Merrill's U.S. brokers bonuses of as much as 100 percent of the revenue they generate to keep them after the deal is complete, people briefed on the plan said last week. Scott Silvestri, a spokesman for Bank of America, declined to comment.

Employees at Lehman Brothers in Europe have been promised by their new owner, Nomura Holdings Inc., that they will receive the same bonus as last year, according to two people familiar with the situation. A Nomura spokesman declined to comment.

Earnings Slump

Share prices and profits have dropped more than bonuses so far. Goldman's profit has fallen 47 percent this year, and the stock is down 53 percent. Morgan Stanley's earnings have tumbled 41 percent, and the shares have shed 69 percent of their value.

``Performances have certainly not been what investors would expect,'' said Daniel Moynihan, a principal at Compensation Resources Inc., a 25-year-old company in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey that advises companies on pay practices. Still, ``smart companies are going to reward those people who performed well,'' he said.

Even without bonuses, Wall Street's traders and bankers typically receive salaries that range from $80,000 to $600,000 a year. That compares with the mean annual wage for the average U.S. employee of about $40,690 and a mean for CEOs of $151,370, according to a May 2007 Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

For many on Wall Street, those salaries aren't enough. Top employees expect to receive bonuses that can be in the millions or tens of millions of dollars. Lloyd Blankfein, 54, Goldman's chief executive officer, was awarded a $67.9 million bonus last year on top of his $600,000 salary.

`Obscene' Mindset

At Merrill Lynch, CEO John Thain, 53, received a $15 million bonus when he was hired in December. Peter Kraus, 56, who is leaving after joining Merrill last month as strategy head, may be eligible to collect on a pay package originally valued at $95 million, including stock and options that replaced a Goldman stake he had to forfeit, people familiar with the matter have said.

While some of the most senior executives may choose to forgo their bonuses, like Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack, 63, did last year, others whose compensation isn't disclosed can still take home millions, said Mercer's Orens.

At investment banks, ``the largest compensation doesn't necessarily get paid to the top five executives,'' she said. ``They could be zeros, but there still will be people making $28 million.''

``When you work on Wall Street and you get no bonus, that is a huge shock to the system,'' said Bill Coleman, chief compensation officer at Salary.com, a software provider based in Waltham, Massachusetts. ``Wall Street has created this mindset that most people find obscene, which is that it's hard to live on just half a million dollars a year.''

`No Wall Street'

A Morgan Stanley investment banker in Europe, speaking on the condition that he wouldn't be identified, said his bonus last year was five times his salary and that he would quit if he didn't get a bonus this year, unless his salary was doubled.

``There is no Wall Street without bonuses,'' said Andy Kessler, a former analyst and hedge-fund manager turned author. ``The guys who know how to make money are the ones who are in demand. If you want to keep them, you have to pay them something.''

More than 148,000 financial jobs have been eliminated worldwide since the middle of 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Securities industry jobs in New York fell by 9,000, or 5 percent, through August 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in an Oct. 23 report. The mean annual salary of securities-industry employees in 2007 was ``slightly less than $400,000,'' according to the Fed report.

Goldman Cuts

Goldman Sachs plans to cut about 3,200 people, or 10 percent of its employees, a person familiar with the matter said last week. That's a reversal from Sept. 16, when Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said he expected the number of employees to grow this year. Viniar told analysts in March that compensation costs make up two-thirds of the firm's expenses and that year-end bonuses are roughly two-thirds of compensation.

More job reductions are likely, especially at Merrill and Lehman. About 10,000 Merrill employees may lose their jobs, estimates Richard Bove, an analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Options Group, a financial services recruitment and consulting firm in New York, estimates that global banking job cuts could reach 200,000, with as many as 50,000 in New York.

``The vast majority of the guys who are being let go are not going to find another job in this environment on the Street,'' said Fred Joseph, the former CEO of Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. who's now co-head of Morgan Joseph & Co. in New York. ``Middle- market firms like us are growing, but all of us won't hire enough people to dent the 10 percent of people that Goldman's going to let go.''

Hedge Funds

Barclays Plc, which is acquiring Lehman's North American investment banking and capital markets businesses, will cut about 3,000 jobs, Barclays President Robert Diamond said in an Oct. 10 Fortune magazine article. While London-based Barclays has a $2.5 billion pool of money to pay severance and other compensation, it hasn't promised former Lehman employees any bonuses. Seth Martin, a spokesman at Barclays, declined to comment.

Competition for top employees, a standard explanation for paying large bonuses, is less fierce this year. Hedge funds, which have poached top traders from securities firms in the past, may cut as many as 10,000 jobs this year after their biggest losses in more than 20 years, estimates Options Group.

``People don't have a whole lot of alternative places to go to, and it's pretty clear to everybody that they're lucky to have a job,'' said Roy Smith, a former Goldman partner who's now a finance professor at New York University's Stern School of Business. ``It has never been easy to find industries away from finance where you can make millions of dollars a year.''

Who Are Keepers?

Fewer employees means more bonus money will be available for those who remain, said Mercer's Orens.

``You determine these are keepers, and you've got to keep them, so they'll receive a disproportionate amount of the money that remains,'' she said. ``You want to make sure they're not there and angry.''

Joseph, the former Drexel CEO, recalled the time at Shearson Hammill & Co. in 1973 when he had to deliver some good news and some bad news to a young employee.

``The good news is we're firing half your class, but we love you and we want you to stay; the bad news is you're not going to get a bonus, and we're cutting salaries 10 percent,'' he said. ``He stayed and he built a whole career, and he's been a successful investment banker ever since.''

The following table compares compensation and estimated bonuses for the first nine months of 2008 with the first nine months of last year. Bonus estimates are 60 percent of total compensation. Bonus awards are typically determined at the end of the year, with payments made in December or January.

Goldman Morgan Stanley Merrill

Nine Months 2007
Total Compensation $16.92 $13.37 $11.56
(in billions)

Estimated Bonus $10.15 $8.02 $6.94
(in billions)

Employees* 29,905 47,713 64,200

Bonus Per Employee $339,408 $168,067 $108,075

Nine Months 2008
Total Compensation $11.42 $10.73 $11.17
(in billions)

Estimated Bonus $6.85 $6.44 $6.70
(in billions)

Employees* 32,569 46,383 60,900

Bonus Per Employee $210,322 $138,749 $110,049

*Employee numbers are figures in third-quarter earnings reports
and don't reflect any cuts or additions since then.

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Chavez Ambitions in Venezuela May Fade With Oil Price (Update2)

By Matthew Walter and Steven Bodzin
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The same tumbling oil prices that led OPEC to slash output last week threaten to send Venezuela's economy into a tailspin, and put an end to President Hugo Chavez's ambitions to expand his socialist revolution at home and abroad.

To cope with plummeting oil revenue, the source of half the government's spending, Chavez may have to cut domestic handouts and foreign aid. The first items likely to go will be arms purchases from Russia, oil subsidies for Cuba, and job-creating local projects such as bridges and subways, economists say.

``You have a country with an oil boom, that doesn't know how to save, doesn't know how to set up productive industries that generate jobs, and goes into debt,'' said Elsa Cardozo, a professor of political science and international relations at the Universidad Central de Venezuela. ``Then oil prices fall and the party ends.''

Venezuela may be poised to repeat the economic collapse it suffered in the 1980s at the end of its last oil boom. Former President Carlos Andres Perez, employing policies similar to Chavez's, lavished petrodollars on public works projects, foreign aid and nationalizations in the late 1970s, setting the stage for a 1983 currency devaluation and spending cuts that sent millions of Venezuelans into poverty.

'Most Vulnerable'

``Venezuela is now more dependent than ever on oil,'' said Jose Toro Hardy, a former board member of state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA. ``Venezuela is the most vulnerable country in all of Latin America to a falling oil price.''

Chavez is already spending beyond his means, posting a $7 billion budget deficit in the first half of 2008, a period of unprecedented oil prices, on a $63.9 billion budget for the year.

Economists' estimates of the minimum oil price Chavez needs to sustain his economic policies range from $120 a barrel to $65. Oil fell 93 cents, or 1.4 percent, to a 17-month low of $63.22 a barrel today on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Below $80 a barrel, it's likely that Chavez will devalue the bolivar for the first time since 2005, sparking a surge of inflation and a drop in real wages because of Venezuela's reliance on imports, said Gustavo Garcia, an economics and public finance professor at the Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administracion, a Caracas business school.

Oil Shock

``Depending on the intensity of the shock, it could be a situation without precedent in Venezuelan history,'' said Tamara Herrera, managing director at Caracas-based economic consulting company Sintesis Financiera.

Venezuela's benchmark 9.25 bond due in 2027 fell 20.5 cents to 50.79 cents on the dollar from 79 cents a month earlier, pushing the yield to 18.83 percent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The government, which has historically calculated its spending plans based on a conservative forecast for oil prices, is projecting a $60-a-barrel average for the 2009 budget, and output well above today's level. Oil options contracts to sell crude at $50 by December almost tripled Oct. 24.

Venezuela, which pledged last week to trim 129,000 barrels a day from its production as part of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' 1.5 million barrel-a-day cut, is the fourth-largest supplier of oil to the U.S. and the biggest petroleum exporter in the Americas.

Aid, Arms

Slashing foreign aid and arms purchases, while diminishing Chavez's influence in the region, will have the smallest political cost domestically, said Alejandro Grisanti, director of Latin American analysis at Barclays Capital Inc.

Venezuela spent $4.4 billion on 12 contracts for Russian weapons, the Kremlin said. The agreements include deals to buy 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles, 50 military helicopters and 24 Su-30 fighter jets, according to a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report. Russia last month offered Venezuela a $1 billion line of credit to buy more weapons.

The president has also used his oil-fed largesse to offer subsidized financing for poor countries in the Caribbean and Central America to buy Venezuelan oil products. As of July, the 18 countries in his Petrocaribe alliance were receiving up to 200,000 barrels of oil a day.

Domestically, Chavez may have to end his drive to nationalize businesses in the so-called strategic sectors, Grisanti said. The government so far has swept up the country's biggest telephone, electricity and steel companies, among others, at an estimated cost of $11 billion, according to Ecoanalitica, a Caracas-based economic consultant.

Tripled Spending

Chavez probably won't cut spending on the social ``missions'' that have brought services such as health care and adult education into some of the country's most impoverished areas and which have been key to securing electoral victories. Chavez has more than tripled total government spending in the past five years.

Chavez says he has enough resources between the central bank's $39 billion of international reserves and other off- budget assets to weather the global economic slowdown sapping demand for oil and dragging down prices.

``Some people are uniting behind falling oil prices thinking that now Chavez will fall,'' he said on state television on Oct. 24. ``I want to remind them that we arrived with $7 oil, and if it drops to $7 again this revolution won't fall, it will only get stronger.''

Reserves

Even so, the government will probably have to burn through some of the assets it accumulated during the past three years as oil climbed toward a record $147.27 on July 11.

Chavez's National Development Fund, an off-budget discretionary account that's soaked up $38 billion in PDVSA earnings and central bank reserves since 2005, will for now lose the benefit of a windfall tax that kicks in when Venezuelan crude rises above $70 a barrel.

The government will probably tap the fund for operations instead of infrastructure projects, Sintesis Financiera's Herrera said. Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez has called for an ``austerity'' budget in 2009.

Economists say the biggest concern is a currency devaluation, which would reduce Venezuelans' buying power, pushing many people who have joined the growing middle class into poverty.

The government is expected to devalue the official exchange rate 26 percent to 2.7 bolivars per dollar sometime next year, according to the median forecast of nine economists in a Bloomberg survey.

More Poverty

``Poverty will inevitably grow,'' said Pedro Benitez, a professor of economic history at Central University of Venezuela in Caracas. ``In the past, governments have preferred to devalue than to cut spending.''

That may hit Chavez's approval rating a time when high crime and inflation are already causing Venezuelans to question his policies, said Jose Antonio Gil Yepes, a director at Caracas-based pollster Datanalisis.

The president's approval rating was 58 percent in September, down from 75.4 percent in May 2006, according to the monthly survey of 1,300 residents nationwide, he said. The poll has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

``If oil prices implode, the model he's trying to build implodes,'' Gil Yepes said. ``Everything he's built is based on subsidies, which are financed by oil.''

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Southern Africa opens ivory sales to China, Japan

AFP

The first legal ivory sales in nearly a decade open Tuesday in southern Africa, with a special auction for Chinese and Japanese buyers bidding for 108 tonnes of elephant tusks.

Four African countries have been authorised by CITES, the international convention that regulates trade in endangered species, to make a once-off sale of ivory to the two Asian powers.

But some conservationists fear that the sudden arrival of so much legal ivory on the Chinese and Japanese markets could provide a way for poachers to slip their ill-gotten wares past the eyes of regulators.

The Asian giants are among the world's largest markets for ivory, which is used for families' traditional seals to stamp documents as well as handicrafts.

Michael Wamithi, head of the elephant programme at the International Fund for Animal Welfare, said both nations are also among the top destinations for illegal ivory taken from poached elephants.

"Several multiple-tonne seizures have been made at Chinese ports in recent years. The lack of enforcement for the registration systems in both countries also provides a convenient loophole for illegal traders," he said.

The wildlife trade watchdog Traffic said it has confidence in the auctions, which begin Tuesday in Namibia and then move every three days through Botswana, Zimbabwe and finally South Africa.

"As far as we're concerned, it's a well-managed process," Traffic's national representative David Newton said in Johannesburg.

Despite concerns about China's enforcement efforts, Newton said Beijing had made real efforts to comply with international rules on ivory trade.

"They are taking this a lot more seriously," he said.

"We're always urging caution, and the ivory trade needs to be very strictly managed," he said. "For the one-off trade, we're confident that the monitoring mechanisms are in place."

The auctions, which are closed to the public and to media, will sell off tusks from government stocks.

CITES says it agreed to the sales only in African countries where elephant populations are judged to be healthy and growing. More than 312,000 elephants are living in the four nations.

Most of the tusks were taken from elephants that died from natural causes or from culling of herds, when animals are killed to prevent overpopulation.

CITES said in a statement that it has taken precautions to make sure that the auctions don't encourage poaching.

Willem Wijnstekers, secretary general of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), will visit all four countries to supervise the sales.

He will also meet on the sidelines of the auctions with Chinese and Japanese authorities about measures taken to monitor the ivory after the sale, CITES said in a statement.

Profits from the sales must go toward elephant conservation projects, or toward programmes aimed at developing communities who live around elephant ranges, it added.

The ivory can go only to China and Japan, which then must track it to prevent it from being resold overseas, in compliance with CITES regulations.

The international ivory trade was banned in 1989, but since 1997 CITES has authorised Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe -- where it judges the elephant populations to be strong -- to carry out occasional sales.

The last sale in 1999 earned five million dollars. The four countries agreed not to hold a new sale for at least another nine years.

South Africa will hold the biggest sale, with 51 tonnes on the block, followed by Botswana with 44 tonnes, Namibia with nine tonnes and four tonnes in Zimbabwe.

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ジェイコム男、株大暴落でも25億円の儲け

　０５年のジェイコム株誤発注騒動で巨額を稼ぎ話題になった都内の個人投資家「ジェイコム男」こと「Ｂ・Ｎ・Ｆ」氏（３０）が、最近の株価大暴落の中でも資産を増やし続け、今月中旬には一時、昨年末から約２５億円多い「資産総額約２１０億円」に達していたことが２７日、分かった。現在も資産総額約２００億円。今月には東京・秋葉原駅前のビルを約９０億円で「１棟買い」し不動産に進出していたことも判明。世界的金融危機の大嵐の中、カリスマトレーダーは“１人勝ち”していた。

　Ｂ・Ｎ・Ｆ氏によると、同氏の現在の資産総額は株、不動産合わせて約２００億円。日経平均株価がバブル崩壊後最安値を更新した２７日も無傷で、前週末比プラスで終了した。株価が大暴落を続ける中、資産総額が過去最高を記録したのは、日経平均終値が前週末比約１１７１円高となった今月１４日で、その日に計約２１０億円に達したという。

　同氏は昨年１２月初めの時点で資産総額約１８５億円だった。米国のサブプライムローン問題に端を発した世界的金融危機の嵐が吹き荒れ、大手金融機関も次々経営危機になる中、同氏は利益を着実に出し続け、昨年末以来、資産総額で最大約２５億円を増やしていた計算になる。同氏は今年の取引について「『かなり順調』ではないですが（総資産は）増えています。こんな暴落は今までに経験がないので、少しでも油断するとあっという間に１０億、２０億は損しそうなので、かなり相場に集中しています」と述べた。

　ただ、何度か「ミス」もしたという。９月に入って米国株の取引も始めたが、米大手証券会社リーマン・ブラザーズ株が急落した際に約７億円分購入。しかしその直後の９月１５日に同社の経営破たんが発表され、損失を出した。また先週、日本株で油断した売買をし、約５億円の損を出したという。「（今年の日本株取引では）この５億円の損が最大です。また、米国株はほかの銘柄で利益が出たので合計はプラスになりましたが、日本株との両立はきついので今はやめています」（同氏）。

　また、同氏は最近“アキバ不動産”投資に乗り出していたことが分かった。同氏によると今月、秋葉原駅前のビルを約９０億円で購入した。現在の資産総額約２００億円のうち、約９０億円分がこのビル。現在の株の運用資金は約１１０億円という。同氏はビル取得の理由について「駅前の物件を個人が買うのは、市況がいい時では難しいと思ったので、めったにないチャンスと思いました」と話した。

　最近、ネット上の個人投資家らの間で、株価暴落をめぐり、同氏の「巨額損失説」「退場説」など根拠なきうわさが多数流れていた。しかし実際は、カリスマトレーダーは健在だった。

　［2008年10月28日7時57分　紙面から］

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Russian frigate begins anti-piracy patrols off Somalia coast
09:57 | 28/ 10/ 2008

MOSCOW, October 28 (RIA Novosti) - A missile frigate from Russia's Baltic Fleet has started patrolling waters in the Gulf of Aden to protect Russian ships and crews from pirate attacks, a Navy spokesman said on Tuesday.

The Neustrashimy (Fearless) frigate arrived at the port of Aden on Sunday to replenish food and water supplies after a trip from the Mediterranean. On Monday it entered waters off the Somali coast where local pirates have sharply increased hijackings of ships for ransom.

"The Neustrashimy missile frigate has assumed patrol duty to protect Russian shipping," Capt 1st Rank Igor Dygalo said.

Somali pirates have seized around 60 ships so far this year off the coast of the east African nation, which has no effective government and no navy to police its coastline.

At the beginning of June, the UN Security Council passed a resolution permitting countries to enter Somalia's territorial waters to combat "acts of piracy and armed robbery at sea."

"In order to ensure safety of Russian ships the Neustrashimy will use all means and measures sanctioned by the UN Security Council," Dygalo said.

He also said the Russian warship may join, if necessary, an international naval group fighting piracy in the region.

U.S. warships from the 5th Fleet are currently surrounding a Ukrainian ship, the MV Faina, that was seized by Somali pirates on September 25. The Faina, which was carrying 33 T-72 tanks and other heavy weaponry, has a crew of 17 Ukrainian nationals, two Russians, and one Lithuanian on board.

The Faina's Russian captain died of a heart attack after the vessel was seized. The pirates holding the ship have demanded an $8 million ransom, and have threatened to kill the hostages if a military operation is launched against them.

NATO and the EU have announced plans to increase by the end of the year their naval presence in the Gulf of Aden, which is one of the world's busiest and most dangerous shipping lanes with about 20,000 ships passing through the area annually.

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Poor student from Moldova inherits 950 million euros from his German uncle
27.10.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/society/stories/106626-student_moldova-0

A wealthy man from Germany made his distant relative, a poor student from Moldova, a billionaire and a real estate mogul. The student, Sergei Sudev, saw his uncle only twice when he visited him in Berlin. The uncle left the young man a 950-million-euro fortune and all his property, including real estate.

Sergei Sudev told reporters that he had learned about his inheritance from an authorized person of his deceased relative in Germany. The newly-made billionaire will have to travel to Germany soon to sign papers and register his fortune.

Sergei is a student of the department for journalism of a local university in Moldova. He also works at a local radio station. The young man said that his life had not changed yet, except for the fact that he had been nicknamed as 'mult' in his hometown. In addition, many of his friends and town-fellows shower him with requests of financial help. Residents of a small town of Komrat, Moldova, started to share Sergei’s money when they learned of his immense fortune. It has become the most talked-about subject in the town.

The fortune of Sergei Sudev (31) – almost 950 million euros – equals the annual budget of the whole of Moldova. The town with the 25,000-strong population has gone mad. Everyone, especially young women, want to become his best friend in town. The student’s fortune became a subject of discussion at a session of the local government too.

Sergei works as a DJ of a local radio station for 150 euros a month. “I found my uncle on the Internet in 1998 and sent him an email. He replied and invited me to come and visit him. He gave me a hearty welcome in Germany and even sent me some money afterwards, although I did not ask for it. That was not big money at all – 100 or 150 euros,” Sergei said.

The 56-year-old uncle died of heart failure in September 2007. His lawyers came to Komrat a year later and announced his will. Sergei could not believe his ears. He became the chief shareholder of a German bank and the owner of his uncle’s entire movable and immovable property.

“For the time being, this fortune brings me only problems and headache. I wouldn’t like to get into trouble because of it. I can not go out like I did before. I decided to buy a pack of cigarettes today, but the people in the store deluged me with their questions, congratulations and requests,” the man said.

Komrat is a tiny town that knows no traffic jams whatsoever. The opening of a new kiosk or the installment of new traffic lights is a significant event for every resident there, and they may discuss it for a week.

Local officials gathered for a meeting to discuss the news of Sergei’s fortune. They wanted to find out how the man was going to spend his money and whether he was going to donate some to his hometown.

The fortune consists of 950 million euros, the control shareholding of a German bank, deposits, real estate in Germany, Italy, France and jewelry.

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「社会保障費の圧縮見直しを」　厚労相、妊婦死亡受け

2008年10月27日23時31分

　脳出血をおこした東京都内の妊婦が８病院に受け入れを断られて死亡した問題に関連し、舛添厚生労働相は２７日、「社会保障費の圧縮は限界。大きく方針転換すべきだ」と述べた。小泉政権時代から続く年２２００億円抑制策の見直しを求め、医師不足対策などの予算確保に力を入れる考えだ。

　事件を受けて地元医師会との意見交換後、都内で記者団に答えた。社会保障費圧縮が妊婦死亡問題の「背景にある」とし、「今回のようなことが二度と起きないような対策を立てていきたい」と主張。

　抑制策見直しに伴って必要となる財源について、舛添氏は増税が検討されているたばこ税の増収分や、社会保障・成長力強化などに配分される３３００億円の重点化枠（重要課題推進枠）によって、「２２００億円はカバーできる」と話した。

　福田政権時代の７月に、０９年度予算の概算要求基準（シーリング）で２２００億円抑制策の継続が決まった際も、舛添氏は難色を示している。麻生首相も就任後、「とにかく切ればいいというのは難しくなっているなとは思う」と国会で答弁している。（南彰）

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パチンコ「金星」経営の３社が破産　負債総額１６９億円

2008年10月27日18時27分

　岐阜県でパチンコ店「金星」を経営していた松三（同県大垣市、松浦相次代表）など３社が岐阜地裁大垣支部から破産手続きの開始決定を受けていたことが２７日分かった。帝国データバンク名古屋支店によると、負債額は３社で計約１６９億円。

　同支店などによると、破産手続きの開始決定を受けたのは松三のほか、大和、ケィスリー。いずれも大垣市に本社を置き、松浦氏が代表を務めている。８日に決定を受けた。

　松三は８６年に設立され、９３年１０月期には売上高１７３億円を計上したが、大手パチンコチェーンとの競合が激化。０７年４月期には約１００億円まで落ち込んでいた。遊技機規則が改正され、今年６月までにギャンブル性を弱めた機種への切り替えを迫られたことも影響した。

　負債額は、０６年末に７店舗を経営していた松三が６１億円、３店舗を経営していた大和は５６億円、２店舗を経営していたケィスリーは５２億円。

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【メラミン混入】中国製冷凍たこやきから検出
2008.10.28 18:24
このニュースのトピックス：食の安全

　厚生労働省は２８日、食品輸入販売業「チバフーズ」（千葉県船橋市）が中国から輸入した冷凍たこやきから、有害物質メラミンが検出されたと発表した。７・１トン輸入したが、製品はすべて倉庫に保管されており、市場には流通していないという。

　厚労省によると、国内でメラミンが検出されたのは１１例目。同社は１０月３日に中国・天津市の食品製造業「天津勝春食品有限公司」から製品を輸入。２８日に東京検疫所による検査で、４・４ｐｐｍのメラミンの検出を確認した。原料の一部に汚染原因とみられる脱脂粉乳が使われいた。

　また、同有限公司からの輸入実績がある国内の別の５会社に対し、メラミン混入の有無を検査するよう通知を出したという。

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「トイレ難民」８２万人、待ち時間４・５時間に　首都直下地震で試算
2008.10.27 22:15
このニュースのトピックス：地震

　首都直下地震が発生すると、東京２３区ではトイレが大幅に不足し、発生から２時間後には約８１万７０００人がトイレに行けない状況になることが２７日、中央防災会議の専門調査会が公表したシミュレーションで分かった。最も深刻な千代田区では４・５時間待ちの長蛇の列が生まれるという。専門調査会の中林一樹（いつき）座長（首都大学東京教授）は「トイレ不足は食料や水と並んで被災後の最重要問題の１つ。個人の対策が不可欠だ」と訴える。

　東京湾北部を震源とするマグニチュード（Ｍ）７・３の地震が冬の平日正午に発生、２３区の約４６％で断水が起きてトイレが使えなくなると想定。通勤・通学者ら約１２７０万人が一斉に徒歩で帰宅を目指したり、避難所へ向かうケースを分析した。

　試算では、公衆便所などの需要が急増し、地震発生から６時間のうちに１２区でトイレ需要が供給量を超えた。不足は都心ほど深刻で、官庁・オフィス街が集中する千代田区では、午後２時の時点で需要に対する不足率が８２％となり、４・５時間待ちの状態が発生。その後も需要は増え続け「何時間待っても利用できないような状況になる」（同会議事務局）という。

　新潟県中越地震や阪神大震災などでは、被災地で排泄（はいせつ）物が山のように積み上げられたり、トイレを我慢するために水分を控え、血栓症を引き起こすなどの事例があり、トイレ対策の必要性が指摘されている。

　都心部から離れた区でも、幹線道路沿いは徒歩帰宅者が集中。世田谷区の国道２４６号沿いでは、１７時間にわたり不足状態が続くとみられる。

　対策は（１）混雑を避けるため帰宅日時をずらす（２）企業は社員用の簡易トイレなどの備蓄を進める（３）個人も介護用おむつなどを常備する－など。

　中林座長は「コンビニの袋とポケットティッシュを持っているだけでも違う」と話している。

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大量「違法マグロ」日本に　大西洋で過剰な漁獲
2008.10.28 09:47

　乱獲により個体数が急減している東部大西洋・地中海のクロマグロが、平成１８年から１９年にかけて国際資源管理機関「大西洋まぐろ類保存国際委員会（ＩＣＣＡＴ）」が設定した漁獲枠を大幅に超えて漁獲され、その多くが日本の市場に出回った可能性が高いとする報告書がまとまった。

　報告書は、ＩＣＣＡＴの調査と統計に関する常設委員会が作成。「１９年の漁獲量は、ＩＣＣＡＴが定めた漁獲枠の２万９５００トンを大幅に超える６万１１００トンに達する可能性もある」と指摘し、大幅な漁獲量の削減と違法漁業の廃絶を勧告した。

　この地域のクロマグロに関しては、ＩＣＣＡＴの外部評価委員会が、資源保護対策の不十分さを厳しく指摘する報告書をまとめた。規制強化とともに、大部分が消費される日本の水際での管理態勢強化を求める声も高まりそうだ。

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11:02 GMT, Tuesday, 28 October 2008
Extremists to be barred from UK
Omar Bakri Mohammed

Tougher measures to prevent extremists entering the UK are to be announced by Home Secretary Jacqui Smith.

They are designed to stop people - including so-called "preachers of hate" - stirring up tension. In some cases their names will be made public.

There have been 230 people barred since 2005, but their identities have been revealed only when they publicly complained about being excluded.

Ms Smith is expected to reveal the full details of the plans later.

The 230 previously blocked have included neo-Nazis, holocaust deniers and animal rights activists. About 80 of them have been religious extremists.

'Privilege'

The radical Muslim cleric Omar Bakri Mohammed was banned from the UK following the bombings in London in July 2005.

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The then Home Secretary Charles Clarke used existing powers to exclude Mr Mohammed as his presence was "not conducive to the public good".

Other people to have been excluded from the UK include Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, from the US, in 2002 and Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who lives in Qatar, earlier in 2008.

When Muslim cleric Mr al-Qaradawi was refused a visa, the Home Office said the UK would not tolerate the presence of those who sought to justify acts of terrorist violence.

In 2004 then Home Secretary David Blunkett wrote to US animal rights activist Dr Jerry Vlasak, who had reportedly incited violence against vivisectionists, to say he would not be allowed into the UK.

Martha Stewart and Snoop Dogg are also among those to have been denied entry to the UK from the US. The lifestyle guru and the rapper had been convicted of crimes, which formed the basis of their exclusions.

Ms Smith is expected to say the measures will prevent people intent on stirring up tensions from entering the UK.

She will call the right to come to the country a "privilege" which should not be abused.

It is believed it will be up to the individual concerned to prove they will not stir up any tension.

Patrick Mercer, a Conservative member of the Home Affairs Committee, says the strategy could target the wrong people.

He told the BBC: "It's the people who are working undercover, who aren't known about, who are working inside the community and influencing people there, they are the really dangerous people."

He claimed it would be better to concentrate on those already in the UK.

He said: "Let's try to get rid of them rather than trying to keep new people out."

Liberal Democrats home affairs spokesman Chris Huhne suggested the plans were inadequate and did not tackle those already living here or people preaching on the internet.

He said: "The main problem with these sort of eye-catching gimmicks is they don't make us any safer at all. What we're looking for is delivery."

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元露鵬と元白露山、「解雇不当」と地位確認求めて提訴

2008年10月28日7時42分

　大麻の陽性反応が出て日本相撲協会を解雇された大相撲の元露鵬（２８）と元白露山（２６）が２７日、協会を相手取り、力士としての地位確認と給与の支払いを求める訴えを東京地裁に起こした。代理人弁護士は「解雇手続きそのものが不公平で、適正さを欠いている」と訴えている。

　代理人弁護士によると、２人は大麻の精密検査を受けることには同意したが、協会側が検査の結果次第で２人を解雇する可能性について事前に説明しなかったと主張。精密検査は２人だけだったほか、過去の処分例と比べても解雇は極めて重いと主張している。

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「協会解雇は違法」と元露鵬、白露山も提訴
2008.10.27 20:21
このニュースのトピックス：大相撲

　尿検査で大麻の陽性反応を示し、日本相撲協会を解雇されたロシア出身の兄弟力士、元露鵬（本名・ボラーゾフ・ソスラン・フェーリクソビッチ）と元白露山（同・ボラーゾフ・バトラズ・フェーリクソビッチ）が２７日、「解雇は違法だ」として力士としての地位確認などを求める訴訟を東京地裁に起こした。

　相撲協会は、大麻所持事件での元若ノ鵬の逮捕を受けて９月２日、抜き打ちの尿検査を実施。陽性反応が出た元露鵬らを同８日、解雇した。

　元露鵬らは（１）精密検査を求められたのは２人のみで、弁明の機会も与えられていない。解雇手続きは不公正・不適正で違法（２）協会の過去の処分例と比べ、解雇処分は著しく重く極めて不当－などと主張。会見した代理人の塩谷安男弁護士は「（元若ノ鵬と違い）逮捕もされていない」と話している。

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力士会が尿検査で要望書／大相撲
2008.10.27 19:43

　日本相撲協会を提訴した元幕内露鵬、元十両白露山の代理人、塩谷安男弁護士は２７日、十両以上の関取で構成される力士会が、９月２日に行われた簡易尿検査について実施方法の疑問点や今後の改善を要望する文書を各理事に提出していたことを明らかにした。

　同弁護士が公表した要望書は、今月５日に開かれた力士会で作成された。検査当日の力士会を欠席した関取に検査を実施していないことや、１度は陽性反応を示しながら再検査で陰性となって不問に付された関取もいることなどを指摘。「検査があいまいであり、以後検査を実施する際には統一した方法で行ってもらえるよう要望します」としている。

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元若ノ鵬また告発「栃ノ心と大麻吸引」

　大麻所持で逮捕され、日本相撲協会を解雇された元若ノ鵬（２０＝本名ガグロエフ・ソスラン）が、２７日発売の「週刊現代」で、グルジア出身の幕内栃ノ心（２１＝春日野）の大麻使用を告発している。同誌によると、栃ノ心は元若ノ鵬が在籍していた間垣部屋の個室で、元若ノ鵬とともに大麻を吸引したという。元若ノ鵬は、同誌で大関琴欧洲、魁皇、千代大海、十両春日錦との八百長を告発しているが、大麻使用を名指しで告発したのは初めて。栃ノ心は、疑惑を全面否定している。

　元若ノ鵬の告発は、大麻使用にまで及んできた。同誌によると、元若ノ鵬が大麻所持で逮捕された前日の８月１７日夜、同日に都内のロシア料理店で偶然会った栃ノ心と幕内黒海の運転手（グルジア人）と食事をした後、元若ノ鵬が在籍していた間垣部屋の個室へ移動。３人で１本の大麻を吸引したとしている。

　また、栃ノ心は元若ノ鵬に「グルジアにいたころから吸っているよ。日本でも吸っている」と話し、大麻を買うために「一緒に渋谷に行こう」と誘ってきたという。告発に踏み切った理由は「逮捕されてから一方的に関係を切ろうとしている」「手紙を人を介して渡しても連絡がない」からなどとしている。

　一方で、栃ノ心は「あいつはウソばかり言っている」と疑惑を全面否定した。この日は、秋巡業最終日の下関場所に参加。「あいつとは仲がいいわけでもない。間垣部屋（個室）にも行ったことはあるけど、ＤＶＤを借りたりしただけ」と強く反論した。法的手段を含めた名誉を守るための対抗策に関しても「何でもやります。いつでも」と強気だった。

　大麻使用の疑惑に関しては、日本相撲協会も独自で抜き打ち検査を行い、陽性反応だった元露鵬、元白露山を解雇した経緯もある。同協会再発防止検討委員会委員長の伊勢ノ海理事（元関脇藤ノ川）は「記事の内容を見ていないが、必要と判断とした場合は、これまで通り事情聴取などを行う」と話した。

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元若ノ鵬、週刊現代記事に困惑

　八百長告発タッグに“亀裂”！？　大麻所持容疑で逮捕され、日本相撲協会を解雇された元若ノ鵬が解雇無効を求めて同協会を訴えている裁判の第１回口頭弁論が２７日、東京地裁で行われたが、その後の会見で代理人の宮田眞弁護士は、元若ノ鵬が週刊現代の記事に困惑していると明かした。裁判で協会側は「処分は正当」と反論した。

　同誌２７日発売号には、元若ノ鵬の話として「グルジア人力士と一緒に大麻を吸った」と掲載されている。しかし、元若ノ鵬は２１日に「（記事が出ることは）まずい。困ったことになった」と同弁護士に話したという。宮田弁護士は「捜査段階での客観的な証拠と違う。第三者と一緒に大麻を吸った事実はないと警察も認めている。本人の意思と違う」と内容を含め、元若ノ鵬の話と記事に食い違っている部分があるとした。

　これに対し、週刊現代側は「本人と最終チェックも行っているし、そのようなこと（食い違い）はない」と反論した。解雇後、元若ノ鵬は同誌上で現役力士を名指しし、八百長や大麻吸引などを告発してきた。同弁護士によれば本人は「精神的に落ち込んでいる」という。

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元若ノ鵬が週刊誌での告発を一部否定

　大麻所持で逮捕され、日本相撲協会を解雇された元若ノ鵬（２０＝本名ガグロエフ・ソスラン）が２７日発売の週刊現代に掲載された自身の告発記事の一部を否定していることが２７日、分かった。代理人の宮田真弁護士が、元若ノ鵬が今回の記事について「困ったことになった」と話していることを明かした。

　記事では、逮捕前日の８月１７日夜に元若ノ鵬が在籍していた間垣部屋の個室で、幕内栃ノ心（２１＝春日野）らと大麻を吸引したことを明かした。ところが逮捕直後の警察の現場検証では、大麻成分を含むタバコから検出されたＤＮＡは元若ノ鵬のものだけ。一緒に置かれた水パイプからは第３者のＤＮＡが検出されたが、大麻の反応は出なかった。捜査で出た客観的事実と食い違う。

　宮田弁護士は「本人の意思と違う形で記事になって困ったと言っている」と説明。一方の週刊現代編集部は「記事は本人に何度もインタビューした上、掲載内容を読み上げて確認を取ったもの」としている。

　記事が事実なら警察にウソの証言をしたことになる。「大麻は１人で吸った」という証言は、起訴猶予処分の判断材料の「本当に反省しているか」にもかかわる。記憶違いか、言葉足らずか。元若ノ鵬の迷走が、周囲も困惑させている。

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力士会が月給アップの要望確認
2008.10.28 16:48

　大相撲の十両以上の関取で構成される力士会が２８日、福岡市内で会合を開き、名古屋場所前に会長の朝青龍が呼び掛けた月給アップの要望を確認した。大関・千代大海によると、年末の会合で内容を詰め、相撲協会側に要求していく見込み。

　また、５日の臨時力士会で、９月２日に行われた簡易尿検査の実施方法に対する疑問点や改善点をまとめ、要望書として協会理事に提出したことについて、千代大海は「今後、検査をするときは疑いの残らないよう、力士に説明してください、とお願いした」と話した。