Fear of deep European recession

Fear of deep European recession

By Richard Milne in Paris

Published: October 1 2008 19:26 | Last updated: October 1 2008 19:26

Continental Europe is heading for a deeper recession than the US as it lacks the necessary flexibility to react to the worsening economic situation, according to leading executives and policymakers.

European business people are worried that, despite the financial crisis originating in the US, Europe will suffer more from it. Many are joining investors in urging the European Central Bank to abandon its focus on inflation and concentrate on trying to stave off a prolonged recession.

Baldomero Falcones, executive chairman of FCC, the Spanish infrastructure company, said: “[When will the recovery be] in the US? Maybe one or two years. In Europe? One year more. In Spain? Six months more.”

Carmen Riu, the co-chief executive and co-owner of Riu Hotels & Resorts, one of Spain’s leading tourism groups, said: “The end of the crisis will be easier in the US than in Europe. They are more agile in the US whereas Europe is infinitely more rigid.”

Executives and policymakers are worried that Europe did not use the good times of the past few years to push through much-needed reform in areas such as labour flexibility. Companies across Europe from Daimler and Siemens to KPMG and Unicredit are bracing themselves for the slowdown by cutting jobs, production and recruitment. This comes as growth in Europe has plummeted after a strong first quarter to lead many analysts to think several continental economies are already close to recession.

Policymakers have been comforted by the recent rescues of Fortis and Dexia, two large banks in the Benelux region, and how it demonstrates that quick action is possible in Europe despite a highly fragmented regulatory system.

But one senior policymaker admits that the ECB’s designated focus on inflation makes the prospects for growth in the continent bleak. “The ECB has to focus on inflation for a whole host of political and historical reasons. But it does mean – irony of ironies – that the US economy is likely to come out of this quicker than we are. And their all-round flexibility compared with Europe makes that all the more likely too,” he said.

Further evidence of the swing in mood among European companies in recent months can be seen in German engineering orders. The VDMA, the German engineering association, which as recently as April was one of the most bullish parts of European business, said that orders in September had collapsed with overseas orders tumbling by 19 per cent.

Many European companies had banked on growth from emerging markets such as Russia and China to compensate for weakness in Europe. “I think times are tough no matter how international you are,” said the chief executive of a leading German company. “Nobody really knows what will happen. But if you were a betting man I don’t think you would go for Europe over the US.”

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The Short View: Real recession

By John Authers, Investment Editor

Published: October 1 2008 21:49 | Last updated: October 1 2008 21:49

The battle between Wall Street and Washington over the troubled asset relief programme has just been interrupted by news from the real world. Even before the credit crisis degenerated into melodrama, the developed world had unambiguously lurched into recession.

One of the few positive phenomena of the year has been the refusal of the US economy to stop growing. Huge stimuli from lower interest rates, a devalued dollar and “stimulus” tax rebates have done the trick.

But Wednesday’s Institute of Supply Management survey of manufacturing jolted the needle firmly towards recession. Set so that any number below 50 signals a contraction, the ISM dropped to 43, far lower than expected. In the past 30 years, it has only dropped below 45 during recessions. The credit crunch (even before reaching its acute phase) and the rising dollar seem to have pushed US manufacturing over the edge.

Japan’s similar Tankan survey of manufacturing also moved into recession territory and so did data from the eurozone – although in both cases the data were closer to expectations. The world is diving into recession, and everyone is diving together; theories of “decoupling” can be ignored.

The impact on currencies is revealing. So far this week, the euro has depreciated by about 4.5 per cent against the dollar, despite the US melodrama. The betting is that the banking crisis has further to run in Europe than the US, and that the European Central Bank (meeting on Thursday) will be forced to cut rates before long.

As for the yen, with Japan’s low interest rates, it works as a gauge of uncertainty, rising when investors are more averse to risk. Compare it with Brazil’s real, which gains on optimism about global growth and falls on pessimism, and you have the story of the past two months; the yen has risen 30 per cent against the real since then.

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Iraq takes control of militias

By Mary Beth Sheridan in Baghdad

Published: October 1 2008 22:38 | Last updated: October 1 2008 22:38

The Baghdad government has begun assuming control of the US-backed armed groups that have been credited with helping to curtail violence in the country, in a high-stakes test for the US strategy to pacify Iraq.

Iraqi authorities officially took command on Wednesday of about 54,000 members of the Sons of Iraq or Awakening Councils in Baghdad. US officials say they will transfer authority over the remaining members as conditions permit.

A Pentagon report this week said a smooth transition of the roughly 100,000 armed militiamen to Iraqi employment was “critical to providing stable security”.

Iraq’s Shia-led government has been wary of the largely Sunni forces, which include many former insurgents. Some of them have threatened to resume attacks if the government continues carrying out widespread arrests – which have seen several detained in recent weeks – or otherwise treats them harshly.

Wednesday's’s transition was largely symbolic, since the US military plans to stay involved with the groups for several months as the Iraqi government begins paying their salaries and decides how to employ them.

Still, in the middle-class district of Zayouna, in south-east Baghdad, the Iraqi government’s new role was evident as an army commander, Major Abbas Kadim, handed out $100 bills (€71, £56) to members of the Sons of Iraq at a security compound.

Hovering beside him were US soldiers who had given Major Kadim the cash in the first place.

“It’s to get them used to paying the Sons of Iraq, instead of us doing it alone,” said US army Staff Sergeant Aaron McDonough. He had invited Iraqi military and police officials to make what are supposed to be the final US payments to the 163 Sons of Iraq in the local area.

Major Kadim, in camouflage fatigues and a maroon beret, sat at a table on a patio next to a Sons of Iraq supervisor who checked off members’ names as they claimed their salaries.

“They are our sons. They are Iraqis,” said Major Kadim, who cheerfully greeted the armed groups. “We have no differences with them. We respect them very much.”

But out of earshot of the commander, the Sons of Iraq said they feared for their future. Mohammad Idan, 42, a former shopkeeper related a rumour he had heard about the Iraqi security forces kidnapping and “disappearing” a Sons of Iraq member.

“We will never feel safe with them,” he said.

Amer Saleem Meki was worried about losing the $300-a-month payment the US had provided the men for patrolling their district and passing on information.

“I don’t think this is going to succeed. There will be no support for us. I’m already 35,” Meki said, referring to age limitations that prevent him from joining the Iraqi military or police. Iraqi authorities have agreed to employ 20 per cent of the Sons of Iraq in the security forces, and find other jobs for the rest. But only 3,400 members of the US-backed forces in the Baghdad area have been accepted into the army and police so far.

Alarm has spread through the militia group in recent weeks after the government issued arrest warrants for dozens of members around the country.

Under US pressure, the Iraqi government has agreed not to arrest any members without a warrant issued during the past six months, and not to sack any without cause. It is supposed to put the Sons of Iraq on the government payroll this month.

But asked whether the Iraqi government would be covering the next pay day, Staff Sgt McDonough looked uncomfortable.

“I wish I could say, ‘Yeah, it will be.’ But I can’t,” he said. The Iraqi police official he had invited to hand out payments on Wednesday failed to show up.

The Sons of Iraq programme started in western Anbar province in 2006, when Sunni tribal leaders abandoned their fight against US forces and became their allies in combating al-Qaeda in Iraq, a Sunni insurgent group.

Together with a ceasefire by Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shia cleric, and the US troop surge, they have greatly helped in curbing violence over the past year.

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US scraps nuclear block on India

By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington, Amy Kazmin in New Delhi and Reuters

Published: October 1 2008 17:02 | Last updated: October 2 2008 07:08

The U.S. Congress on Wednesday approved a deal ending a three-decade ban on U.S. nuclear trade with India, unleashing billions of dollars of investment and drawing the world’s second most populous country closer to the West.

The Bush administration says the pact will secure a strategic partnership with the world’s largest democracy, help India meet its rising energy demand and open up a market worth billions.

While Delhi would place its non-military nuclear facilities under international safeguards, critics say the deal contains loopholes that could allow India to divert resources to its nuclear weapons programme.

Richard Lugar, the top Republican on the Senate foreign relations committee, said the deal cemented a “very important partnership for world peace”.

Congressional approval of the deal also signals an impressive resurrection for an agreement that on many occasions appeared on the verge of unravelling.

“The interesting thing is how many times it came close to death,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association and strong critic of the agreement. “This was not an overwhelming slam dunk.”

To many in the Indian establishment, the deal signifies a triumph over decades of “nuclear apartheid” – during which India was denied access to foreign nuclear energy technology as punishment for testing nuclear weapons – that gives it rightful recognition as an acceptable nuclear weapons power. On a more practical level, many in business hope the deal will help India overcome its chronic power shortages, which are a major bottleneck to its economic aspirations.

With the global nuclear embargo on India already lifted, at Washington’s urging, by the recent decision of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, Areva, the French energy firm, is in talks with the Nuclear Power Corporation of India to sell it two nuclear reactors.

But even in India, the deal is not without its critics and the controversy over the deal, which had threatened the survival of the government of Manmohan Singh is unlikely to fade away.

India’s leftist parties – which withdrew their support from Mr Singh’s Congress-led coalition over the issue, prompting a major government crisis, remain staunchly opposed to an agreement that they believe subordinates New Delhi to US power, especially in foreign policy.

With Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, expected in New Delhi on Saturday to sign the deal, leftist parties have said they will observe “a black day against this surrender to US imperialism,” by hoisting black flags, and wearing black badges while the deal is signed.

And with elections due by the end of May, left parties have already said that they will give their support to any government willing to reverse the deal, suggesting that battles will continue even through the implementation phase.

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Syria’s next step to reform

By Andrew England

Published: October 1 2008 18:09 | Last updated: October 1 2008 18:09

The way Abdullah Dardari tells it, he was adamant. “Before the end of this year, even on a chalk board, you have to start dealing,” he recounts.

The recipients of the ultimatum from Mr Dardari, Syria’s deputy prime minister for economic affairs, were officials tasked with setting up the Damascus Stock Exchange.

“So they are running like mad,” Mr Dardari, a central figure behind a still-tentative opening up of Syria’s economy, tells the Financial Times.

The re-establishment of a stock exchange in Syria, which has run for decades under a quasi-socialist regime, is seen as a crucial step to take the economic reform process forward. The creation of the exchange has faced long delays and, in spite of Mr Dardari’s words, it is realistically not expected to be functioning until the first quarter of next year – at the earliest.

Still, once it is up and running it will be a symbolic success for those promoting liberalisation in Syria, an issue that has become more pressing as the country’s limited oil reserves decline.

“One has to look at the Syrian reform programme in a historical context. In four years what we have done is a miracle. But from the point of view of what needs to be done and the final objective, we are still a long way short of the target,” says Mr Dardari, who was appointed in 2005 but is not a member of the ruling Ba’ath party.

“The creation of a stock market sends a strong signal we are moving towards our objective of a social market economy.”

Since the 1960s, when the Ba’ath party seized power and nationalised all leading industries, Syria’s economy has been closed.

An earlier bourse was shut down four decades ago. Until 2004, the financial services sector consisted of half a dozen state banks that did little but service the public sector, while private-sector entities conducted much of their business outside the country.

But in the past four years, nine private-sector banks have opened and restrictions on foreign currency transactions have been relaxed. As sectors have been opened and the business climate has improved, the contribution of the private sector to the growth of non-oil gross domestic product has risen to more than 80 per cent, according to an International Monetary Fund report.

The stock market is the next piece of the puzzle, says Mr Dardari.

The opening of a bourse has been delayed by a series of issues, ranging from finding a location to recruiting qualified staff to choosing trading systems.

DSE officials say they were initially in talks with OMX, the Nordic exchanges group. But that avenue was closed when earlier this year OMX was acquired by Nasdaq, the US exchange. That created uncertainty about whether any deal would be able to go ahead, Syrian officials say, because the US maintains sanctions against Damascus.

OMX officials declined to comment, while Syrians involved in the exchange decline to say where they will be obtaining their trading and settlement systems.

“We have other ideas and we are working on them . . . We have a programme and some other companies will be providing us with a system,” says Rateb Shallah, chairman of the exchange. “It is all very tight and we are working towards the schedule.”

He hopes the exchange will be up and running in January or February in a temporary headquarters, while a permanent building is completed at a new business centre being constructed on the highway between Damascus and Beirut.

Mr Shallah says there are between 26 and 45 companies ready to list. Others expect the initial listing to be far smaller.

Companies will require a minimum market capitalisation of S£250m ($5m) and three years of audited financial statements.

The market will be open to foreign investors, but some question how much trading will take place. The fear is that there will be an imbalance between a mass of buyers and relatively few sellers, an issue highlighted when private-sector banks launched a series of over-the-counter initial public offerings that were heavily over-subscribed.

There are also questions about how willing family businesses will be to open up their books. And, in spite of the reforms that have taken place, there is no suggestion that the government is ready to privatise state entities.

Bassel Hamwi, general manager of Bank Audi and deputy chairman of the exchange, says the real significance of the opening of the stock exchange lies not just in attracting foreign investment but in the signal it sends to the Syrian bureaucracy.

“I think with the stock market, Syria will be very much on its way to becoming an emerging market and an important indication that we are open for investment,” he says.

“This signalling effect could also have an important internal impact. Today, if you were to talk to government, you would probably hear divergent views on the need and speed to open up and reform the market, and it may even convince those sitting on the sidelines.”

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Lehman Hedge-Fund Clients Left Cold as Assets Frozen (Update3)

By Tom Cahill
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy probably means the end of hedge-fund manager Oak Group Inc. after 22 years in business.

John James, who runs the Chicago-based firm with $25 million of assets, didn't buy Lehman stock or debt. Instead, his potentially fatal mistake was to rely on the bank's prime brokerage in London, a unit that provides loans, clears trades and handles administrative chores for hedge funds. He's one of dozens of investment managers whose Lehman prime-brokerage accounts were frozen when the company filed for protection from creditors on Sept. 15.

``We're probably going out of business and liquidate, game over,'' James, 59, said. ``We've lost 70 percent of our assets.''

The list of funds trapped in the Lehman morass keeps growing. London-based MKM Longboat Capital Advisors LLP said last week it will close its $1.5 billion Multi-Strategy fund in part because of assets stuck at Lehman, according to an investor letter.

LibertyView Capital Management Inc. of Hoboken, New Jersey, owned by Lehman's Neuberger Berman unit, told investors on Sept. 26 it had suspended ``until further notice'' attempts to calculate the value of its funds. LibertyView wasn't included in the Sept. 29 sale of Neuberger to Bain Capital LLC and Hellman & Friedman LLC.

Diamondback Capital Management LLC, a Stamford, Connecticut-based hedge fund, told investors that it had assets of $777 million stranded in Lehman. A spokesman declined to comment.

Asset Amounts Unknown

Managers with a smaller percentage of assets in Lehman limbo include Harbinger Capital Partners, Amber Capital LP and Bay Harbour Management LLC, which are each based in New York, and RAB Capital Plc and GLG Partners Inc., both in London. Olivant Ltd., run by former UBS AG President Luqman Arnold, said today it can't access a 2.78 percent UBS stake, worth about $1.4 billion, it held at Lehman.

Darden Capital Management, an investment club run by students of the University of Virginia's business school, has about $6 million in four funds that are stranded.

PricewaterhouseCoopers, Lehman's bankruptcy administrator in the U.K., where its European prime brokerage was based, doesn't know how much money is at stake. PwC said last month it's trying to recoup about $8 billion in cash that Lehman's parent company allegedly withdrew from its European unit before the collapse. It will take weeks, if not longer, to sort out the mess, according to PwC.

Monique Wise, a spokeswoman for New York-based Lehman, declined to comment.

Hedge-Fund Losses

The Lehman fiasco is another blow to the $1.9 trillion hedge-fund industry, which is staggering toward the end of its worst year in two decades. Hedge funds fell an average of 5.3 percent this month through Sept. 26, according to the Global Hedge Fund Index compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. in Chicago. The index has dropped 10 percent for the year.

Losses on stocks, bonds and commodities will be aggravated as funds write down the value of the assets they had with Lehman.

``Some managers might say, `Let's just take the bloodbath now' and write Lehman trades to zero,'' said Taco Sieburgh Sjoerdsma, head of research at Liability Solutions Ltd., a hedge-fund consultant in London. ``For many Lehman trades, it would be very difficult to convince administrators that it's worth 100 cents on the dollar.''

While clients yanked about 50 percent of Lehman's prime- brokerage assets in the week before the bankruptcy, at least one, Newport Global Advisors LP, said its request for a transfer to another bank wasn't completed in time.

Transfer Held Up

The Woodlands, Texas-based Newport, which managed $578 million primarily for pension funds, instructed Lehman on Sept. 10 to move its assets to Credit Suisse Group AG, according to a request for information filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of New York. Lehman confirmed the switch was being processed, according to the court papers. It didn't happen before the bankruptcy was filed on Sept. 15.

Lehman's Wise declined to comment on Newport Global.

Hedge-fund administrators said funds will likely need to record Lehman-stranded assets in a separate account known as a side-pocket, which is set up for securities that can't be easily valued or sold.

``There's a lot of people scrambling right now to get as much information as possible,'' said Gavin Gray, managing director offshore operations for Phoenix Financial Services Ltd. in Dublin, which administers $12.5 billion in funds. ``Administrators don't have the light to lead people to the right value right now.''

Oak Group

Oak Group used Lehman's unit in London because it allowed the fund to borrow more than U.S. prime brokers, James said. Operating under different regulatory requirements, European prime brokers have been more generous than their U.S. counterparts, sometimes even within the same parent company, said Michael Romanek, principal at Rise Partners Ltd., which arranges financing for funds from London.

``A lot of U.S. managers would rather deal with Europe than New York,'' said Romanek. ``Rarely do you see it go the other way.''

James's account had pledged equity securities as collateral that Lehman then loaned to other investors under a practice known as rehypothecation. It's the fate of that collateral that worries many Lehman hedge-fund clients.

``The assets, once `used,' were no longer held for the client on a segregated basis, and as a result the client may cease to have any proprietary interest in them,'' PwC said in a statement on Sept. 22. Complicating matters is Lehman's role as a counterparty for derivatives agreements such as credit default swaps.

Prime Broker Accounts

One executive who used Lehman as a prime broker -- and who asked not to be named because his firm is private -- estimates that hedge funds had between $50 billion and $70 billion in Lehman prime-brokerage accounts.

``Certainly it's in the billions,'' said John Godden, head of London-based IGS Group Ltd., a hedge-fund investor and consultant based in London. ``A lot of the exposure is not just Lehman's prime brokerage, but it's Lehman as a swap counterparty.''

Hans Hufschmid, chief executive officer of GlobeOp Financial Services SA, a London-based administrator to funds managing $104 billion, said he's now running reports for clients detailing their bank counterparties.

``A lot of our big clients are spending all their time right now making sure they have their assets in a safe place,'' said Hufschmid. ``The whole Lehman experience is lessons learned in many ways.''

Some hedge funds, now reduced to creditors, will have a new focus.

Insolvency Proceeding

``Those funds and fund managers who used Lehman as their prime brokerage and were formerly managing hundreds of different securities, positions or trades in those accounts now find themselves managing a single asset, which is their claim in the insolvency proceeding of Lehman U.K.,'' said David Pauker, managing director at Goldin Associates LLC in New York.

Pauker, who was Refco Inc.'s chief restructuring officer in that futures broker's bankruptcy, said the U.K.'s legal system gives ``broader authorities'' to the administrator, leaving creditors less leverage to negotiate and participate in decisions affecting their money.

Refco's bankruptcy may be an ``inapt'' comparison with Lehman's, according to Richard Deitz, founder of VR Capital Group Ltd., which was Refco's largest prime broker client with $800 million frozen in that bankruptcy. Deitz, who wasn't a Lehman customer, recovered all his assets in the Refco bankruptcy.

`Different Animal'

``If you were a Lehman prime-broker client in Europe, from what I can see you ought to be pretty concerned,'' said Deitz from Moscow, where he oversees $2 billion. ``Refco doesn't hold too many signposts for how to think about the Lehman bankruptcy, Lehman is a very different animal.''

For hedge funds, the collapse of Lehman will underscore counterparty risk, and speed decisions to pull assets from prime brokers or banks they perceive as risky.

``Hedge funds tend to have accounts with numerous counterparties,'' said Lynn Hiestand, a partner at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom (UK) LLP in London, who handled Refco's bankruptcy in the U.K. ``Hopefully they haven't put all their eggs in this one basket.''

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House price fall biggest in 17 years
Reuters
Reuters - 1 hour 57 mins ago

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices fell 1.7 percent in the month of September to post their biggest annual drop since comparable records began in 1991, the Nationwide building society said on Thursday.
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Interest rate futures rallied as investors speculated the figures increased the chance of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week, although analysts cautioned that a cut in itself would do little to halt sliding property values.

"Even if the Bank of England cuts interest rates as early as next week, as we now expect, this is likely to provide only very limited support to the housing market given that elevated money market rates are exerting upward pressure on fixed rate mortgages," said Howard Archer, economist at Global Insight.

Nationwide said house prices in August were 12.4 percent lower than a year earlier. Before 1991, Nationwide conducted quarterly house price surveys. The largest annual fall on that measure was a 10.7 percent drop recorded in the early 1990s.

The 11th consecutive monthly decline highlights the sharp reversal of fortune for the property market since the credit crunch took hold last summer, bringing an end to a decade in which property values almost trebled.

"Casting back one year there have been some astonishing and unpredictable developments in the housing and financial markets," said Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist.

"We would need to see a significant shift in consumers' sentiment before we begin to see any real recovery in activity and subsequently house prices."

September's decline pushed the average price of a property to 161,797 pounds, the lowest since February 2006.

The precipitous drop in house prices both in Britain and overseas has been a key element of the crisis that is rocking the global banking sector and threatening to send many industrialised economies into recession.

A reluctance by banks to lend to each other had led to a sharp increase in wholesale funding costs in recent weeks. Several mortgage providers have responded by raising their own mortgage rates.

Policymakers are concerned a weakening property market could feed a vicious downward spiral of falling consumer demand and rising unemployment.

Futures markets suggest the Bank of England will cut interest rates to 4.75 percent next week and to 4 percent by this time next year.

A Reuters poll this week showed 45 of 66 economists polled September 29-October 1 said the Bank would hold rates at 5.0 percent next week. A cut by the end of the year is now almost a certainty with forecasters in the poll.

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Buffett gets preferred stake in GE
Reuters
By Scott Malone Reuters - Wednesday, October 1 08:51 pm

BOSTON (Reuters) - General Electric Co plans to raise $15 billion (8.47 billion pounds) through stock sales -- including $3 billion from Warren Buffett -- to improve liquidity and give it the option of more acquisitions at a time of intense market turmoil, the U.S. conglomerate said on Wednesday.
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The news helped to erase some of the day's slide in GE shares, which fell more than 9 percent earlier, but was not enough to push them into positive territory. Investors remained worried about the troubles at GE's vast finance arm -- which has businesses ranging from loans to mid-sized business to investing in real estate.

It was the second big strategic investment by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc in the battered finance sector in as many weeks. Last week Berkshire said it would invest $5 billion in Wall Street's Goldman Sachs Group Inc .

"GE is the symbol of American business to the world," Buffett, one of America's most famous investors, said in a statement. "I am confident that GE will continue to be successful in the years to come."

'INSURANCE POLICY'

The move was a sign that GE is looking to shore up its finances as the U.S. faces what could be its worst financial storm since the Great Depression, investors said. The U.S. Senate was expected to vote later on Wednesday on a $700 billion bailout package for Wall Street.

"It's an insurance policy in case things get worse," said Wayne Titche, co-manager of the AHA Diversified Equity Fund, part of AMBS Investments, which counts GE among its holdings. "It just shows how jittery the market is that a firm triple-A rated (company) like General Electric feels that they need to raise that extra cushion. But in today's market, better safe than sorry."

GE shares have lost about 34 percent of their value this year, a steeper slide than the Dow Jones industrial average or the broad Standard & Poor's 500 index .

"This means that we are near the trough," said Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at Duke University, in Durham, North Carolina. "Some people will take it as a negative sign that GE is in trouble. I take it as a time when a very smart investor decides 'I am going to buy low, and this is it.'"

'EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE PRICES'

Berkshire is buying $3 billion of preferred GE shares that carry a 10 percent dividend, and also has the option to buy another $3 billion of GE common stock at $22.25 per share -- slightly above the 52-week low of $22.19 it hit last month.

Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE, which with a $245 billion market capitalisation is the second most valuable publicly traded U.S. company, said it plans to price the $12 billion common stock offer before the market open on Thursday.

"What Buffett has been waiting for years is finally happening: A period of sufficient market distress where he can negotiate terrific financial terms for Berkshire," said James Armstrong, president and portfolio manager at Henry H. Armstrong Associates in Pittsburgh, which holds a stake in Berkshire Hathaway. "The reason he's buying so much right now is he's getting extremely attractive prices. He has been waiting for this for 10 years."

ENVIRONMENT 'VOLATILE'

GE confirmed its forecast of last week that troubles at GE Capital, which accounts for more than half its profit, would offset strong growth in sales of high-tech products like jet engines and electricity-generating turbines, leaving 2008 profit down as much as 12 percent.

"The economic environment remains volatile," said GE Chairman and Chief Executive Jeff Immelt in a statement. "However, the company's performance remains on track with the earnings guidance we provided last week for 2008."

The sale gives GE more flexibility and would allow it to "play offense" in making acquisitions, Immelt said.

GE shares had fallen sharply earlier in the day after a Deutsche Bank analyst said he expected the conglomerate's profit to be down again in 2009.

The cost to insure $10 million of GE Capital's debt with credit-default swaps over a five-year period eased after the news, which had spiked as high as $740,000 earlier in the day, but eased to $540,000 after the Buffett news. That was down from $550,000 on Tuesday, according to Phoenix Partners Group.

The shares, which were down $1.21 at $24.29 on the New York Stock Exchange, remain above the 52-week low of $22.19 reached on September 18, but well below the high of $42.15 reached on October 2.

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Kamchatka heating plants to use gas by 2010-2011 season

02.10.2008, 09.09

PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY, October 2 (Itar-Tass) - Kamchatka Territory Governor Alexei Kuzmitsky has announced that the thermal power plants of the Kamchatka Peninsula are to switch over to the use of gas by the beginning of the 2010-2011 heating season, an official in the press service of the Territorial government told Itar-Tass on Thursday.

The source pointed out that Kamchatka would be able to give up the use of fuel oil and that good conditions would be created for attracting investments to the region.

The pipeline building operations are currently carried out by Gazprom's subsidiary -- the Gazprom Invest East -- established expressly for implementing gas projects in the Far East. In 2008, allocations for the implementation of this project amount to 4,100 million roubles. Another 38,500 million roubles are to be allocated in 2009 and 2010. The aggregate sum of investments will total 42,000-45,000 million roubles.

Alexander Ananenkov, Deputy Chairman of the Gazprom Board, has pointed out that simultaneously with the gas pipeline construction, preparations are being made for geological study of the western Kamchatka shelf, for the gas deposits on land cannot afford to be up to the task of ensuring a stable gas supply of the Territory in the long term. The development of new gas-bearing sectors on the shelf will make it possible to resolve the problem, he maintains.

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Gas now fully supplied to Khabarovsk Territory

30.09.2008, 18.19

KHABAROVSK, September 30 (Itar-Tass) - Speaker of the State Duma Boris Gryzlov called the opening of the updated Khabarovsk heat and power station No.2 as an event of nation-wide importance. “In actual fact, the Khabarovsk Territory is now fully supplied with gas,” he noted, speaking here at an opening ceremony.

Gryzlov noted that gas came to Khabarovsk two years ago when a gas pipeline was driven to heat and power station No.1 in the city of Khabarovsk two years ago. “More than 900 kilometres of gas pipelines were put into operation in the territory over a short period of time, while the total length of pipelines is 1,500 kilometres,” he added.

The speaker stressed that the transition to gas of heat and power station No.2 gives a chance “to settle ecological issues, as well as to raise profitability, quality and ratings of jobs: transition to gas will considerably raise economic indicators of the enterprise, ease work and working conditions of operational personnel, cut expenses for generation of heat energy. At the same time, mazut will remain as a reserve fuel, which will raise reliability of the enterprise’s operation.”

In turn, Governor of the Khabarovsk Territory Viktor Ishayev noted that when retooled heat and power station No.2 went into operation, “the entire power system of the Khabarovsk Territory has become stable”.

The governor specified that the second heat and power station supplies heat to 685 blocks of flats, 12 schools, 23 kindergartens and 32 medical establishments. The commissioning of the gas pipeline of heat and power station No.2 will bring gas to other enterprises in Khabarovsk and surrounding villages. The total cost of work topped 1.8 billion roubles.

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Russian min sees gas producing countries setting up organization


ST. PETERSBURG, Oct 2 (Prime-Tass) -- Natural gas producing countries, including Russia, may soon set up an organization to promote their interests, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said at an economic forum Thursday.

"Previously this forum was just a place for discussion but it's highly likely that it will soon be transformed into an organization because now (the natural gas) business faces serious challenges," he said.

Shmatko said Russia was interested in "profound dialogue" and cooperation with other gas producers. He added that this might include synchronizing investment programs.

He said partnership between gas producers would offset cooperation between E.U. gas importers. Shmatko said, however, that Russia did not intend an "energy war."

Echoing other Russian officials, Shmatko denied that this organization would be a "gas OPEC." Russia has long entertained the idea of setting up a natural gas cartel with other countries but was keen to point out that it would not be an analogy of OPEC. It was not clear what the difference would be.

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Russian experts to support China's first spacewalk

14:50 | 24/ 09/ 2008

JIUQUAN, September 24 (RIA Novosti) - Russian experts will have a role in overseeing the upcoming mission of Chinese astronauts, which will include China's first spacewalk, a spokesman for country's manned space program said Wednesday.

The Shenzhou-7 spacecraft with three astronauts on board is scheduled to launch Thursday from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Gansu province, in the northwest of China.

The spokesman said the Russian experts would monitor the condition of the space suits, which were developed using Russian technology.

"We are also grateful to Russia for its active cooperation in the training of astronauts," the spokesman said, adding that good opportunities were opening up for further partnership.

The three-day mission peaking at 343 kilometers from Earth will include China's debut spacewalk by one of the astronauts. It was revealed on Wednesday that the spacewalk would last for around 20 minutes.

"The spacewalk will be made between the 29th and 30th orbits of Earth," a press release said.

If anything unexpected happens, the spacewalk will be delayed, and the mission will be extended to four days.

The spacecraft will be launched between 21:07 and 22:27 local time (13:07 to 14:27 GMT).

China, which has recently unveiled comprehensive space exploration plans, is one of only three countries in the world capable of independently launching manned spaceflights, the others being the United States and Russia.

The country plans to build its own orbital space station and establish a space laboratory by 2020.

In 2003 and 2005 the Shenzhou-5 and Shenzhou-6 spacecraft carried three Chinese astronauts into space.

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What is the future for Russia's submarine fleet?
18:43 | 01/ 10/ 2008

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) - Dmitry Medvedev's remarks that Russia is resuming production of nuclear submarines for its Navy have been widely commented on.

The country's submarine fleet is in critical condition and calls for renewal. The president's words raise hopes for an early change.

Submarines play a special role in Russia's Navy. In the late 1950s, following the death of Josef Stalin, the new Soviet leaders opted for a nuclear missile equipped submarine fleet, and now it forms the core of the Navy's might. A drastic cut in the number of warships coupled with the freezing of construction of new units (only ship construction projects already started were completed) has led to a situation where Russia's submarine fleet is now facing the retirement of many vessels due to age. The construction of new submarines, which has resumed in recent years, is, unfortunately, outpaced by the decommission rate of outdated vessels.

Medvedev made special mention of nuclear-powered submarines equipped with cruise missiles plus multi-role submarines. These classes of boats have suffered the heaviest cuts in the previous years, and while Project 955 submarines are now being built for strategic forces, the situation with cruise-missile and multi-role submarines is more disquieting.

Although Project 885 cruise-missile submarines (the first of them was named Severodvinsk) and later between one and three sister ships (according to various sources) began to be built, so far not even the first one has joined the Navy. Many reasons are cited, including one that the design was raw and needed updating when construction began. The fact, however, is that no submarine is yet commissioned, and eight Project 949A submarines, built in the 1980s-1990s, make up the force intended to confront aircraft carriers. These are excellent vessels, loved by their crews and boast high performance characteristics, but they are all slowly aging.

The situation with multi-role submarines is even worse. No new vessels designed to engage hostile submarines, surface ships and to hit shore-based targets with strategic cruise missiles are under construction. At the moment, the Navy has 19 boats of this class, of three projects: 671RTMK (four units), 945(945A) (three units), and 971 (twelve units). Most of these submarines were built in the late 1980s to mid-1990s. They can still be considered modern, but the end of their service life is not far off. Some of the shipbuilding design bureaus are known to be developing new multi-role projects, but specifics about dates and specifications are not reported.

How many cruise-missile and multi-role submarines does the Russian Navy need? Estimates vary, but the figure of 30 to 40 non-strategic submarines is considered optimal. At least 20 non-strategic nuclear submarines need to be constructed to maintain the strength of the submarine branch at the required level, considering that about half of the 27 cruise-missile and multi-role submarines currently in service will retire after reaching the end of their service lives.

In theory, such rates are not too demanding - Russia has several shipyards that can build submarines - Sevmash, Admiralty Wharves, Komsomolsk and even Red Sormovo, which has the necessary experience. The real problems lie elsewhere: in cooperating enterprises and, most important of all, in personnel, whose numbers and training quality have been drastically reduced. It is to be hoped that all these problems will be solved, and soon.

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外国人投資家、株・債券の売り越し高水準　３月半ば以来

　財務省が２日発表した９月21―27日の対内・対外証券投資（指定報告機関ベース）によると、外国人投資家による株式と中長期債の売越額が１兆3545 億円となった。売越額はベアー・スターンズを巡る一連の救済騒動があった３月16―22日の週以来の高水準に達した。米証券大手リーマン・ブラザーズの経営破綻に端を発した市場の混乱で、利益確定の売りが急増した。

　売越額が膨らんだのは外国人による中長期債の売買。欧米の金融市場の混乱で海外のヘッジファンドの間で先行きの不透明感が先行し、保有している日本国債などを処分して利益を出す動きが強まった。(14:43)

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証券税制、現行の優遇延長　金融安定化策、与党ＰＴが始動

　米国発の金融市場の混乱を受け、自民、公明の与党は1日、国内の金融安定化策を検討する専門プロジェクトチーム（ＰＴ）の初会合を開いた。柳沢伯夫座長（元金融担当相）は同日、日本経済新聞社との単独会見に応じ、株式相場の下支え策の柱として、現行の証券優遇税制の仕組みを2009年以降も数年間延長することを視野に検討を進める考えを示した。

　同チームは米国の金融危機を受け、与党の幹事長が9月30日に設置することで合意。次回の会合は3日に開く。(07:00)

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ＯＤＡ計画、国・地域別に　ＪＩＣＡ新体制

　1日発足した新しい国際協力機構（ＪＩＣＡ）は、政府開発援助（ＯＤＡ）を重点的に供与するための国・地域別の援助方針を作成する。ばらばらだったＯＤＡの事前調査も一本化する。国の財政難でＯＤＡ予算の削減が続くなか、迅速で効率的な援助体制を整えるのが狙いだ。

　日本のＯＤＡには有償資金協力（円借款）、無償資金協力、技術協力の3種類がある。9月末までは円借款を旧国際協力銀行（ＪＢＩＣ）、無償資金協力を外務省、技術協力を旧ＪＩＣＡが担当してきた。(07:00)

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ＪＩＣＡ、イラクに年内にも事務所設置

　新しい国際協力機構（ＪＩＣＡ）の緒方貞子理事長は1日の記者会見で、年内にもイラクに事務所を設置し、職員を常駐させる計画を明らかにした。日本政府はイラクに対し、35億ドルを上限とする円借款を供与する方針を表明済み。理事長は「現場に人がいないと、援助の実施に難しい面がある」と説明した。 (07:00)

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政投銀、最終益600億円　10年度目標

　日本政策投資銀行の中期経営計画の概要が1日、明らかになった。民営化から3年目に入る2010年度の最終利益目標を約600億円とし、自己資本利益率（ＲＯＥ）3％を目指す。税引き前利益で見ると、07年度実績の約2倍となる。これまで利益の大半を占めてきた融資部門に加え、投資部門の収益も拡大する。海外の金融機関への出資も検討する。

　政投銀は1日に民営化した。当面は政府が株式の100％を保有するが、今後5―7年かけてすべて売却し、完全民営化する予定だ。(07:00)

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東海豪雨、損保支払い150億円超　自動車の被害額大きく

　8月下旬に愛知県岡崎市などに被害をもたらした東海地方の豪雨について、損害保険会社が契約者に支払う保険金の総額が150億円を超える見通しとなった。道路冠水により浸水した自動車の被害額が大きく、大手損保各社の保険金支払額は10―数十億円規模となる見込みだ。

　東京海上日動火災保険など大手損保6社とＪＡ共済は現時点で、合計137億円に上る保険金の支払いを見込んでいる。水の被害を補償する自動車保険の加入者への支払額が87億円、住宅の被害を補償する火災保険が50億円。最終的には150億円を超えるとみている。(07:00)

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三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀、トヨタ米子会社に融資

　三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀行はトヨタ自動車の米金融子会社トヨタモータークレジットコーポレーション（カリフォルニア州）向けに、300億円の円建て協調融資を実施した。米金融危機の深刻化を受けて、資金調達の多様化を支援する。主幹事の三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀を含め、信託銀行や地方銀行などの邦銀7行が協調融資に参加した。

　トヨタの米金融子会社は調達資金を自動車ローン事業に充てる。同社は米国などの海外市場で社債を発行し資金を調達してきたが、調達手段の幅を広げる。円建て協調融資による資金調達は為替変動のリスクがあるが、海外より調達コストを抑えられるという。(07:00)

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イオン社長、三越撤退に不快感

　イオンの岡田元也社長は２日の記者会見で、三越が東京都と宮城県のイオン系商業施設から撤退すると発表したことについて「契約があるので勝手にはやめられない。三越は池袋店の売却益が160億円入るから、全額を（違約金に）充てていただけるなら十分と思う」と述べ、突然の閉店発表に不快感を示した。

　同社長によると、両社間では出店後一定期間は退店できない契約になっているという。今後は、両社間で退店違約金の額をめぐって交渉が難航する局面も予想される。

　三越は９月末、イオン系のショッピングセンターに入る武蔵村山店（東京都武蔵村山市）と名取店（宮城県名取市）など4店の閉鎖を発表した。(14:31)

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航空券の販売手数料、欧米航空各社が廃止

　米ノースウエスト航空、仏蘭エールフランス―ＫＬＭなど外国の航空会社が相次いで、日本の旅行会社に支払ってきた航空券販売の手数料を廃止する。燃料高が経営を圧迫する中、経費を削減するためで、航空各社はネットを使う低コストの直接販売を増やしたい考え。これを受け、旅行各社が消費者から手数料を取る動きが広がっている。

　まずノースウエスト、米アメリカン航空が10月1日に手数料を廃止した。これまでノースウエストは航空券代の5％、アメリカンは3％を旅行会社に支払っていた。来年1月にはエールフランス、同4月に米ユナイテッド航空、米コンチネンタル航空も取りやめる予定だ。廃止の対象は正規割引運賃（ＰＥＸ運賃）の航空券で、ホテル宿泊込みのパック旅行などは含まない。日本航空と全日本空輸も追随するかどうかを検討中だ。(07:00)

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ハードディスク駆動装置事業、米大手に売却へ　富士通

　富士通はパソコンやデジタル家電のデータ記憶に使うハードディスク駆動装置（ＨＤＤ）事業を、同市場で世界2位の米ウエスタンデジタルに売却する方向で調整に入った。年内の合意を目指す。富士通のＨＤＤ事業は同6位で年間売上高は3300億円強。国内の電機大手の事業売却では過去最大規模になる。米金融危機などで世界経済が変調するなか、赤字が続く同事業からの撤退で収益基盤を固め経営環境の変化に備える。

　電機業界では三洋電機の携帯電話機、ＯＫＩ（沖電気工業）の半導体など主力事業を売却・撤退する動きが広がっているが、売却先は同じ国内企業に限られていた。原材料高や製品価格の下落に直面する世界の電機大手は事業の選別を急いでいる。富士通が米大手への事業売却に動き始めたことで日本企業を巻き込む形で国際再編が加速する可能性が高い。(07:00)

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造船重機大手、外国人新卒採用を拡大

　造船重機大手が本社での外国人新卒採用を本格化している。来春、三菱重工業は例年の1―2人から18人に拡大。今年初めて韓国で会社説明会を開いたＩＨＩは韓国人だけで8人に内定を出し、外国人採用は15人と今春の2倍以上にする。産業界では1日、主要企業が来春入社組の内定式を開き、2010年春の採用活動が動き出す。海外事業拡大や国内の技術者不足に対応するため、海外営業要員やエンジニアで外国人採用がさらに活発になりそうだ。

　三菱重工は中国、韓国や東南アジアの出身で、日本の大学に留学している学生を中心に採用する。同社は売上高の約半分を海外が占め、原子力発電機器や小型ジェット旅客機など海外を主戦場とする事業も多い。「グローバル展開には優秀な海外の人材が不可欠」として、今後も20人前後の採用を続ける方針だ。 (07:00)

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農場で禁止農薬　東大、使用認め謝罪　「収穫3.6トン、大半販売」

　東京大大学院農学生命科学研究科付属農場（東京都西東京市）が水銀系農薬を不正に使用していた問題で、東大は２日午前、東京都内で記者会見を開き、実習用水田で水銀系農薬をコメの栽培に使っていたと発表した。浜田純一副学長（広報担当）は「大変な問題を引き起こし、周辺住民や関係者の皆様に不安を与えてしまった。誠に申し訳ない」と謝罪した。

　東大はこの農薬による健康被害が出る可能性は低いとみているが、安全が十分に確認されたとはいえないため、今後は残留農薬などの調査を進めるとともに、関係者らを処分する方針を明らかにした。

　東大によると、不正使用されたのは35年前の1973年に農薬としての登録が取り消された「酢酸フェニル水銀」。東大農場の技術系職員が97―99年の３年間、実習用農場で栽培するコメの種もみの殺菌用に使っていた。(12:11)

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禁止農薬：東大農場で使用　米栽培し販売…９０年代後半

　東京大大学院農学生命科学研究科附属農場（東京都西東京市）で、使用禁止となっている水銀系農薬が少なくとも３年間、米の実習栽培で使用されていたことが分かった。収穫された米は地域の住民に販売されており、東大は残留農薬などの調査に乗り出した。今のところ、健康被害の情報はないという。

　東大によると、問題になっているのは、７３年に使用禁止になった「酢酸フェニル水銀」が含まれる農薬。９７～９９年、職員が米の種もみの消毒に使用。０６、０７年にも、同じ職員がカキやリンゴの苗木の消毒に使った。カキはまだ実をつけておらず、リンゴは食用ではなかった。酢酸フェニル水銀は農薬取締法で、研究目的での使用を認められており、使用禁止後も農場に保管されていた。

　この職員は、大学の調査に「使用禁止と知っていた。田んぼが荒れたり、稲に病気が広がった時期があり、効果があったので使った」と説明したという。

　この３年間に収穫された米は、４トン前後に上るとみられ、大半が住民に販売されたり、学生が食べたりした。酢酸フェニル水銀は長期間、摂取すると腎臓に悪影響が出る可能性があるが、東大は「食べる段階まで残留していた恐れは小さい」と話している。人体への影響の有無のほか、他に使用していた職員がいないか聞き取りを進めている。２日午後には、住民への説明会を行う。

　東大農場のホームページによると、農場は東京ドーム約５個分に相当する２２・２ヘクタールの敷地があり、米のほかにも野菜や果樹の栽培も行われている。

　２日、記者会見した濱田純一副学長は「住民や関係者に不安を与えたことを深くおわびします」と陳謝した。【川崎桂吾】

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エイズウイルス、1908年ごろ初感染　アリゾナ大研究チーム

　【ワシントン＝共同】アフリカで最初のエイズウイルス（ＨＩＶ）が動物から人間に感染したのは1908年ごろとみられることを、米アリゾナ大などの国際チームがウイルスの遺伝子解析で突き止め、２日付の英科学誌ネイチャーに発表した。

　これまでＨＩＶの起源は1930年ごろとされていた。世界初のエイズ患者が米国で報告されたのは81年で、約70年間も人類に潜在していたことになる。

　チームによると、最も古い感染例として知られる、現在のコンゴ（旧ザイール）の男性から59年に採取した血液から検出されたＨＩＶと、同コンゴの女性から60年に採取したリンパ節から新たに検出したＨＩＶの遺伝子の配列を比較すると、予想外に変異が大きいことが判明。(15:30)

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校長の家に汚物投げる…横浜の小学校女性教諭

　以前勤務していた小学校の校長宅に親や動物の汚物を投げ込むなどの嫌がらせをしたとして、横浜市は２日、同市立南神大寺小学校（同市神奈川区）の女性教諭（５１）を停職３カ月の懲戒処分にしたと発表した。教諭は同日付で依願退職した。

　同市教育委員会によると、教諭は昨年１２月～今年９月、以前勤務していた同市保土ケ谷区の藤塚小学校の校長（５９）宅に、介護していた親の汚物や犬や猫のふんを数十回にわたり投げ入れたり、校長の車にペンで「死ね」と落書きするなどした。

　教諭は平成１７年４月～今年３月、同校で個別支援学級の担任をしていた。家族の介護のため、少人数指導担当への配置換えを希望していたが受け入れられなかったことに不満を持ち、校長にいやがらせをしたという。

　校長は自宅前に防犯カメラを設置するなどの対策をしていたが、９月７日に汚物が置かれているのに気づき、外に出ると教諭を発見。警察に被害届を提出した。

　教諭は「普通では考えられない行為をしてしまった」と話しているという。

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区役所にお年寄り殺到…後期高齢者制度めぐり

　後期高齢者医療制度をめぐり２日午前、東京都目黒区からの保険料支払いの督促状に対し、既に支払っていると勘違いしたお年寄りらが区役所に殺到。長く待たされたお年寄りから「区長を呼べ」「早くしろ、ばかやろう」などと怒声が飛び交うなど混乱した。

　区は１０月から年金天引きを導入する予定で、それまでは納付書で保険料を納めてもらう仕組み。９月３０日に７月分の保険料未払いの約６２００人に督促状を送付した。

　ところが、すでに口座から引き落とされていると勘違いしたり、年金から天引きされていると思い込んでいたお年寄りが、問い合わせや納付のため区役所を一斉に訪れたという。

　対応までに長時間待たされた女性（８０）は「制度が分かりにくいからこうなる」と憤っていた。

　区の担当者は「お年寄りを長時間待たせて申し訳ない」と話していた。

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商工ローン大手ＳＦＣＧ、市場に不安説…株価７割減

営業利益、前年同期比４３．８％減
ＳＦＣＧの大島健伸社長は商工ローン問題で国会に証人喚問されたこともある＝１９９９年１２月１４日、参院財政金融委員会

　東証１部上場の商工ローン大手、ＳＦＣＧ（旧商工ファンド）が投資家から不安視されている。同社株は１０月１日の終値で４６１０円を付け、今年２月の年初来高値（１万７２００円）から７割強も下げているのだ。経営破綻した米証券大手、リーマン・ブラザーズから一時、巨額の借り入れをしていたことが売りを誘ったほか、本業の不振も株価下落に拍車をかけたようだ。

　ＳＦＣＧが株式市場から注目されたのは、同社の２００７年７月期の有価証券報告書で、リーマンからの短期借入金が単体ベースで７３４億３３００万円となっていたため。これは、単体ベースの短期借入金全体（８２１億円）の９割近くに相当した。

　その後、リーマンからの借入金は大幅に減らしていたものの、市場では「リーマンから借り換えできなくなるので、資金繰りが悪化する」との懸念が拡大。

　ＳＦＣＧの株価はリーマン破綻翌日の９月１６日に８４０円安、１７、１８の両日はともに１０００円ストップ安と暴落。１２日に８５００円（終値）だった株価は、１８日には５６６０円（同）まで下げ、わずか３日間で３３．４％も下げた。

　焦ったＳＦＣＧは１８日、「積極的に返済・借り換えを行ってきた結果、リーマンからの借入金は現時点で５２億９０００万円まで減っている」との緊急リリースを公表した。ＳＦＣＧは３月にドイツ銀行などに４００億円の新株予約権付社債を発行するとともに、短期借入金を減らした結果、リーマンへの依存度は減っているとみられる。

　ところが、ＳＦＣＧが９月２４日に発表した０８年７月期連結決算で、本業のもうけである営業利益が前年同期比４３．８％減の２０２億円となり、今度は本業の不振がクローズアップされることになる。

　営業利益が大きく減ったのは、貸倒引当金などの損失が０７年７月期よりも計３０６億円も増えたため。ＳＦＣＧは「サブプライムローン問題による急激な信用収縮リスク、日本の不動産市況が急激に悪化したリスク、２０１０年に貸金業法が新法に移行するリスクという『三重苦』に適切に対処するため、大幅な貸倒引当金を積み増すという超保守的な決算を断行した」としている。

　ＳＦＣＧは決算と同時に持ち株会社設立や株式１０分割を発表し、株価のテコ入れに懸命だが、肝心の株価は低迷したまま。それどころか、「株式市場でＳＦＣＧの経営不安説が未確認情報として流れる始末になっている」（証券会社幹部）という。

　同社の株価は９月２９日、とうとう５０００円を割り込み、１０月１日は４６１０円と終値ベースでの年初来安値を更新して取引を終えた。

　ＳＦＣＧは１０年ほど前、同業の日栄（現ロプロ）とともに強引な取り立てが社会問題化し、大島健伸社長が国会に証人喚問されたことがあった。０２年に社名を商工ファンドからＳＦＣＧに変更し、投資事業などにも進出。大島社長は現在も関連会社を通じて同社株の約５３％を保有している。

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３割ほど楽になります…電動自転車、パワー２倍ＯＫ

　警察庁は２日、原動機で人力を補助する「電動アシスト自転車」の補助率を最大２倍に引き上げることを決めた。発進や坂道走行など低速時の負担がさらに軽くなり、力の弱い人でも安全に自転車を利用できる。近く道交法施行規則の一部を改正し、１２月１日に施行する。既に大手メーカーなどが開発しており、年内にもパワーアップした電動自転車が登場しそうだ。

　人の力と原動機で補う力の比率はこれまで、時速１５キロまでは１対１（補助率１）とし、同２４キロに達するまでに補助率をゼロとする決まりだった。

　改正により、時速１０キロまでは１対２（同２）とし、以後は同２４キロまでにゼロとする。同１０キロ以内の時は原動機の働く力が２倍になるため、ペダルを踏む力は計算上約３３％少なくて済む。

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ｅｙｅ：日本に帰っても孤立　貧窮続く中国残留孤児の悲痛
　◇我々の人権と尊厳、回復していない
　◇国は家族を、私の一生を全部返して

　戦時中、日本から旧満州（現中国東北部）へ送り出された開拓移民らの子である中国残留孤児。終戦時の混乱で肉親と別れ、戦後数十年、中国へ置き去りにされた。中高年になって日本に帰っても、日本語が話せず、満足に仕事にも就けず、社会から孤立した。

　関西で生活するその一人、兵庫県伊丹市の初田三雄さん（６５）は、アルミ缶を拾って生活している。文化大革命期には「日本のスパイ」として９カ月拘禁された。極貧の農村へ強制移住させられ、残飯をあさって生き延びた。８７年に帰国後は肉体労働をし、定年後は缶を拾っている。

　早朝から団地を回って缶を集める。重さ３０キロにもなる缶を自転車の荷台に積み、力いっぱいにペダルを踏む。孤児に謝罪しない国への怒りは消えていない。「我々の人権と尊厳は回復していない」

　同県宝塚市の山田春木さん（６６）は、中国では金属分析の研究者だったが、帰国後は研究職には就けず、ゴルフ場の作業員になった。狭心症を抱えながら、家族のために働き続けた。昨年１２月、小脳出血などで倒れ、働けなくなった。

　同県尼崎市の宮島満子さん（７２）は、終戦時の逃避行で家族８人を亡くした。「国は家族を、私の一生を全部返してほしい」

　大阪市東淀川区の黒川猛夫さん（６９）は終戦時、追い詰められた開拓民が集団自決した「麻山事件」に遭遇し、母と妹が射殺された。伊丹市の出上二三子さんは（７１）は、近所づきあいはほとんどなく、寂しさが募る。

　戦争や国策で人生を奪われた孤児たちを、日本社会はどう受け入れていくのか。孤児たちは問い続ける。＜写真・宗景正（写真家）／文・樋口岳大＞
　◇いまだ公式謝罪なし

　永住帰国した残留孤児の約９割にあたる約２２００人が、国に損害賠償を求め、０２年から全国１５地裁に訴訟を起こした。０６年１２月の神戸地裁判決は「国が孤児の早期帰国を妨げ、帰国後も十分な自立支援を怠った」と判断、国の責任を認めて賠償を命じた。

　これを機に、国は新たな支援策作りへ一気にかじを切った。昨年１１月には、改正中国残留邦人支援法が成立。今年４月から、老齢基礎年金の満額支給（月６万６０００円）や給付金（単身で月最大８万円）の支給などが盛り込まれた支援策の運用が始まった。

　この支援策で多くが生活保護を受けていた孤児たちの生活は経済的には上向いた。だが、国が孤児の収入を調べ、給付金からその約７割相当額を差し引く「収入認定」の仕組みは残り、「国の監視だ」と反発する声は強い。孤児が長期間帰国できなかったことに関し、国からの公式な謝罪もないままだ。日本語を話せない問題や医療、介護面での不安も解消されていない。

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間垣親方が元若ノ鵬の保証人から外れる

　間垣親方（元横綱２代目若乃花）が大麻不法所持で逮捕され、日本相撲協会を解雇された元幕内若ノ鵬の身元保証人を外れるための書類を外務省と入国管理局に提出したことが１日、分かった。かつての後見人で出版プロデューサーの高須基仁氏が明かした。高須氏によると、若ノ鵬を間垣部屋に紹介した出版社社長が「これ以上迷惑をかけられない」と親方らと話して決めた。週刊現代側で八百長問題を告発したことが大きな要因。高須氏は「地道に再起させる道を用意していたが、弁護士がダメにしてしまった」と訴訟を勧めた宮田真弁護士を批判した。

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ロシアの恥！若ノ鵬の母が怒りの帰国指令

　大麻取締法違反で逮捕され、日本相撲協会から解雇された元幕内・若ノ鵬（２０＝本名・ガグロエフ・ソスラン）が母から強制帰国を命じられていたことが１日、分かった。関係者によると、元若ノ鵬の身勝手な行動に、母国ロシアの母ベラさんが激怒。電話で「ロシアの恥だから、早く帰ってきなさい」と雷を落とされたという。厳格な母にしかられた元若ノ鵬は「母に怒られてしまった…」と完全に意気消沈。角界復帰を希望しながら突然、八百長を告発するなど極貧状態の中で必死に生き残る道を探しているが、母の命令には従わざるを得ないかもしれない。

　◆完了　元若ノ鵬の身元保証人となっていた大相撲の間垣親方（元横綱・２代目若乃花）が身元保証人から外れる手続きを済ませた。

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三菱ＵＦＪ信託、英運用会社に400億円出資

　三菱ＵＦＪ信託銀行は2日、英資産運用会社、アバディーン・アセットマネジメントに400億円出資すると発表した。まず同日、市場を通じて 9.9％の同社株を取得。来春をめどに19.9％まで出資比率を高めて三菱ＵＦＪ信託の持ち分法適用会社にする。アジアなど新興国での運用に強みを持つアバディーンと組むことで、資産運用部門の強化につなげる。

　三菱ＵＦＪ信託が海外の運用会社に出資するのは初めて。海外の関係官庁の承認を前提に出資比率を引き上げて、同社に非常勤取締役を1人派遣する予定だ。現時点のアバディーンの株主構成からみると出資完了後も三菱ＵＦＪ信託は筆頭株主にはならないという。

　出資に伴って業務面でも提携する。まずアバディーンが運用する新興国の債券や株式ファンドなどの商品を三菱ＵＦＪ信託が独占的に国内で販売できるようにする。年金基金など三菱ＵＦＪ信託の法人顧客への商品提供を想定している。将来的には国内の個人客向けの投資信託の開発や、三菱ＵＦＪ信託が運用する日本株ファンドなどを海外で共同販売することも視野に入れる。 (18:28)

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携帯契約、中国が最多６億人　08年末、国際機関予測

　国際電気通信連合（ＩＴＵ）は全世界の携帯電話の契約者が2008年末に40億人を超え、人口で割った普及率が61％になるとの予測をまとめた。普及率は前年末比で13ポイント上がり、過去最大の上昇幅を記録する見通し。ブラジル、ロシア、インド、中国のＢＲＩＣｓで契約者が大幅に伸び、この新興４カ国で世界全体の契約者数の約３分の１を占めるようになる。

　ＢＲＩＣｓの中で最も契約者数が多いのが中国で、世界でも最多の６億人に達する。インドも３億人に迫る勢いで、ロシアとブラジルも右肩上がりに増加。ＢＲＩＣｓ全体では今年末に13億人となる見通しだ。