Russia may hit USA very hard below the belt

Russia may hit USA very hard below the belt
25.08.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/106188-russia_usa-0

US leading experts analyzed punishing opportunities of both Russia and the West after the recent armed conflict in Georgia. Specialists came to conclusion that the list of potential Western sanctions pales in comparison with what Moscow could do in response. However, the US administration hopes that Russia will not resort to radical measures not to harm its own financial and security interests.

The US administration has issued yet another warning to Moscow recently claiming that Russia’s actions in Georgia would question the future of its WTO bid, as well as Russia’s position in the Group of Eight.

The list of Washington’s threats also includes the blocking of Russia’s membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the boycott of Russia’s hosting of Winter Olympics in 2014 and a freeze of US-Russian strategic dialogue.

US experts warn that the list of Moscow’s potential sanctions is a lot longer. Angela Stent, the director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, Georgetown University, said that Moscow may respond at the UN Security Council, where it can put obstacles on the way of US intentions to punish Iran for its nuclear ambition. All anti-terrorist programs, the struggle against drug mafia, Syria, Venezuela and Hamas can be added on the list too. There are many questions, on which Russians may stop their cooperation with the USA, with the cooperation in the energy industry on top of that list, the expert believes.

The International Herald Tribune wrote with reference to US outstanding analysts that Washington needed a lot more from Moscow than vice versa. The US needs to ensure the security of Soviet nuclear weapons, to obtain Russia’s help in the endeavor to make Iran and North Korea shut down their nuclear programs.

The sale of Russia’s arms is another problem. The governments of Western countries and Israel are concerned about reports saying that Russia started the shipments of first components of its S-300 missile system to Iran. The latter may subsequently use the powerful systems to down US and Israeli aircraft.

Russia may complicate USA’s and NATO’s supply of the coalition in Afghanistan In April, Moscow gave France and Germany a right to transit non-combatant cargoes via Russia. Russia’s ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, said that the West should not bite the hand that feeds 50,000 servicemen in Afghanistan. Moscow can offer show pressure of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, which the USA would like to use for their operations in Afghanistan.

In addition, Russia is capable of blocking any sanctions at the UN Security Council. Moscow can also pull out from a number of disarmament treaties, including the one signed with the USA about the liquidation of short and smaller range missiles after the expiry of START-1 Treaty in 2009.

Flynt Leverett, a former National Security Council senior director and CIA senior analyst, said that Moscow was becoming a very important buyer of US Treasury bonds and US government agency issues. The specialist believes that those officials, who urge Washington to put forward various ultimatums to Russia, would hardly prefer Moscow disposing of its dollar assets. Leverett wrote for The National Interest that Moscow was sounding out opportunities of selling Russian crude for roubles, which would obviously affect long-term dollar positions.

Washington hopes that Russia will not go too far. For example, Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons and the abrupt devaluation of Russian dollar assets would be highly undesirable for Russia as well. However, Moscow’s further actions will depend on new sanctions of the West that will have to think twice before reacting to possible recognition of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence by Russia.

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A bad nuclear deal

Published: August 25 2008 18:30 | Last updated: August 25 2008 18:30

The Bush administration has long been guilty of a fundamental inconsistency on the issue of nuclear proliferation. On the one hand, it insists that international sanctions must be targeted on Iran until it suspends its uranium enrichment programme. The US says sanctions are necessary because it argues that Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon – while Tehran says it merely wants to develop a civil nuclear energy programme.

On the other hand, President Bush makes the opposite argument when it comes to India. In 1974, India stunned the world by detonating a nuclear weapon using Canadian technology that had been imported ostensibly to develop peaceful atomic energy. But the Bush administration says India’s illicit pursuit of nuclear weapons can be forgiven. Three years ago, the White House declared it was prepared to allow India to buy nuclear fuel and equipment for its civil nuclear programme. India was required to offer nothing in return – such as a promise not to expand its nuclear arsenal or to stop atomic testing.

This was a foolish move by the Bush White House, undermining international rules on nuclear proliferation. It is therefore refreshing to see many states make clear how unhappy they are. If the US Congress is to approve the pact, it must first be ratified by an obscure body called the Nuclear Suppliers Group, an organisation set up to ensure no country exploits foreign nuclear assistance as India has. At a meeting last week, NSG member states failed to give the deal the green light, tabling extensive conditions that India must meet if it is to receive nuclear material.

Mr Bush’s allies say it is a pity the international community is dragging its feet in this way. They argue that the deal is strategically smart because it has ended 40 years of hostility between India and the US and balances the rising power of China. But the costs far outweigh any benefits. This deal makes a mockery of the non-proliferation treaty. And it threatens to accelerate the nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan. This is because every pound of uranium that India is allowed to import for its power reactors frees up a pound of uranium for its bomb programme.

The NSG will again convene next month and must apply as many conditions as possible to India’s nuclear programme before giving the deal the go-ahead. Better still, the next US president should ditch the entire policy. He should opt for an approach that reforms the rules of the nuclear game both for America’s friends and foes.

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Duma backs South Ossetia independence

By Charles Clover in Moscow and Isabel Gorst in Tbilisi

Published: August 25 2008 11:52 | Last updated: August 25 2008 22:41

Russia moved a step closer to breaking up Georgia and throwing down a gauntlet to Nato, as both houses of parliament in Moscow on Monday voted overwhelmingly to recognise the separatist republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The vote, however, has no force unless and until the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, endorses it, and the Kremlin on Monday said only that Mr Medvedev was studying the resolution.

Russia’s prime minister, Vladimir Putin, said that any attempt to isolate his country economically over its actions in Georgia would achieve little.

President George W Bush later said he was ”deeply concerned” by the Russian parliamentary votes. ”I call on Russia’s leadership to meet its commitments and not recognise these separatist regions,” he said in a statement, arguing that recognition would be inconsistent with United Nations Security Council Resolutions Russia had consistently supported.

”Georgia’s territorial integrity and borders must command the same respect as every other nation’s, including Russia’s,” he said.

The US and others have raised the possibility of blocking Russia’s membership in the World Trade Organisation. Russia is now the largest economy not to belong to the WTO.

But Mr Putin said on Monday that WTO membership was something Moscow would gladly do without. “We don’t feel or see any advantages from membership, if they exist at all” in the WTO, he told a press conference.

Independence for Abkhazia and South Ossetia would mean the loss of considerable territory for Georgia, and is a very emotional issue in Tbilisi. Giga Bokeria, Georgia’s deputy foreign minister, said the resolution, if adopted by the Russian government, would be “a continuation of Russian aggression against Georgia and a serious violation of international law”.

In a show of support for Georgia, the US announced on Monday that Dick Cheney, the vice-president, would be visiting the country next week. The trip, which will also include Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Italy, will begin on September 2.

Russia would be the first to recognise the de facto independent enclaves, which have been demanding independence and have had their own governments and constitutions since winning civil wars against Tbilisi in the early 1990s.

Experts say it is unlikely that the Kremlin will take action immediately on the parliamentary resolutions, but that the votes were a way to increase pressure on Georgia’s government, and increase Russia’s negotiating clout with Nato as the conflict in Georgia moves from a military one to a political one. Vyacheslav Nikonov, an influential Russian political commentator, said: “It seems to me that it would be more profitable to let the situation hang . . . De jure recognition is a unique political trump card, an instrument which is best left unused in this situation . . . I think that hurrying on this decision is simply not warranted.”

It is not clear how many states would join Moscow in recognising the breakaway enclaves. “The only countries that are going to go along with it are North Korea, for example, or Venezuela,” said Alexei Malashenko, an expert on the Caucasus at the Carnegie Moscow Centre think-tank.

Instead of Kosovo, which declared independence earlier this year and was immediately recognised by western nations, experts instead draw a parallel with Turkey’s invasion and recognition of northern Cyprus in 1974-75, which continues to be isolated internationally.

Georgia’s government, after losing the recent war to Russia, is in no position to bargain, and Russia may try to use the emotional issue of recognition of the two enclaves as a tool to get Tbilisi to renounce membership in Nato, which it has requested, or to press President Mikheil Saakashvili to step down.

The vote was also intended to display Russia’s new determination to control the destinies of countries in the post-Soviet space, and keep Nato’s influence to a minimum. The speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, Boris Gryzlov, said of the vote: “Russia’s historic role of the guarantor of peace in the Caucasus has increased . . . The Caucasus has always been and will remain the zone of Russia’s strategic interests.”

While Russia builds pressure on the west with the potential recognition of the enclaves in Georgia, western nations have been dangling Russia’s potential membership in the WTO as an incentive to return to the international fold.

Washington argues that the arrival into the conflict zone of 20 monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe means that Russia no longer has the right or the need to deploy troops outside South Ossetia or Abkhazia. The ceasefire agreement allows Russia to carry out “additional security measures” before an “international mechanism” is put into practice.

“They are still not in compliance with the ceasefire agreement,” said Robert Wood, a state department spokesman. “Our goal is to get 100 OSCE monitors in there as soon as we can; we are in the process of having 20 get on the ground in the area.”

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Global turmoil dents Swedish sell-off plans

By David Ibison and John Thornhill in Stockholm

Published: August 25 2008 21:56 | Last updated: August 25 2008 21:56

Turmoil in global financial markets is threatening the Swedish government’s goal of raising SKr200bn ($32bn, €21bn, £17bn) by 2010 from the sale of its stakes in state-owned companies, Mats Odell, minister for financial markets, said on Monday.

The centre-right government said when it was elected in 2006 that it would try to sell stakes in six state-owned companies by 2010 to reduce the role of the state in society.

The privatisation programme is a cornerstone of the government’s policy, providing a break with Sweden’s recent political past, which has been dominated by the Social Democrats.

But with the next general election due in 2010, Mr Odell, who is overseeing the privatisations, said selling companies that were ultimately owned by the Swedish people for less than they were worth amid depressed market conditions would be “political suicide”.

He expressed confidence the government would reach its original goal of raising SKr200bn by 2010 from the sales, but admitted it might not be able to sell all of the companies by then as originally planned.

He made clear that securing the highest possible price was more important than meeting a time limit, telling the Financial Times: “2010 is not a target . . . It is a budget technical assumption.”

The government has so far sold Vin & Sprit, maker of Absolut vodka, for SKr55bn to Pernod Ricard, offloaded 8 per cent of TeliaSonera, the telecommunications company, to institutional investors for SKr18bn, and sold a 6 per cent stake in OMX, the stock market operator, for SKr2.2bn to Nasdaq and Borse Dubai.

It retains a 37.3 per cent stake in TeliaSonera, a 19.9 per cent stake in Nordea, the Nordic region’s largest bank, and 100 per cent of SBAB, a mortgage lender.

The SKr119bn raised so far has been used to reduce state debt and will help finance tax cuts and other reforms to the welfare system to be announced in September in the autumn budget. But the sales have proven unpopular with large parts of the electorate.

Mr Odell said that in this environment, securing the highest possible price for the remaining companies was essential. “We are not going to have a clearance sale here,” he said.

His comments follow a defence of the government’s stake in TeliaSonera, which received an unsolicited takeover offer from France Telecom this year.

The government rejected the offer as too low and the French company eventually walked away from the transaction. “We don’t need the money,” Mr Odell said on Monday.

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Danes save bank to secure financial stability

By David Ibison in Stockholm

Published: August 25 2008 20:13 | Last updated: August 25 2008 21:52

Denmark’s central bank has taken control of the country’s eighth largest retail lender to avert a systemic financial crisis – the first such move for 15 years.

Nationalbanken and about 100 Danish financial companies are injecting DKr4.5bn ($896m, €607m, £483m) cash into Roskilde Bank and assuming DKr37.3bn of debt after its portfolio of property-related loans went bad.

“We wanted to secure financial stability in Denmark. The alternative would have been that Roskilde went bankrupt and that would have resulted in a considerable contagion throughout the financial sector,” said Nils Bernstein, governor of the central bank in Copenhagen.

Roskilde, which has 24 branches and about 100,000 customers, is the second small Danish bank to face a liquidity crunch. Earlier this year Trelleborg was forced to sell itself to Sydbank.

The latest rescue brings the effects of the global economic crisis to Denmark’s doorstep and highlights the country’s growing economic difficulties. In the first quarter of this year it became the first European Union member to go into recession.

Rising interest rates and sharp increases in food and oil prices have undermined household incomes in Denmark, weakening consumer demand and triggering a correction in property prices.

Roskilde was put up for sale in July after revealing losses stemming from exposure to the weakening Danish property market. But a buyer was not found and the central bank was forced to step in.

Roskilde said an uncompleted audit had unveiled an additional DKr1bn in writedowns on loan provisions on top of the DKr520m to DKr540m it forecast in July.

Mr Bernstein, who des­cribed Roskilde’s culture as “slipshod”, said the decision to mount a rescue was taken because he believed other Danish banks might have experienced difficulties raising funds from international capital markets in the event of Roskilde’s collapse. He sought to limit the potential systemic impact of the bail- out, saying other Danish banks were not as exposed to the property market as Roskilde and that “in general, Danish banks are well prepared” to deal with a weakening economy.

Despite the central bank’s reassuring words, market sentiment towards other financial companies, such as Amagerbanken and Forstaedernes Bank, weakened on Monday, pushing their share prices sharply lower.

However, shares in the country’s largest banks – Danske Bank, Jyske Bank and Sydbank – declined only slightly, indicating the pillars of the country’s banking industry remain sound.

Roskilde’s investors will be wiped out. “Unfortunately for shareholders and holders of hybrid core capital and subordinated loan capital, as things look today they have most likely lost their capital,” said Mr Bernstein.

The Danish economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year and by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of this year, putting the country into a technical recession.

But analysts pointed out that Danes have not been living beyond their means and that the coming downswing in consumer spending should not be too severe.

This view is backed up by the fact that wages are growing faster than headline inflation, which means real incomes are rising, and unemployment is falling, although it is expected to start rising later this year as growth slows.

Roskilde Bank was founded in the provincial Danish town of Roskilde in 1884. In the 1960s, money was still being delivered to its branches by bicycle.

The bank entered the mortgage credit market in the 1990s and during the property boom lent to the property management, real estate and construction sectors.

Last year Roskilde’s loan book increased 37 per cent to DKr33bn ($6.5bn, €4.4bn, £3.5bn). The largest sector in the portfolio at the end of 2007 was real estate and related segments (45 per cent).

In July, Moody’s downgraded Roskilde’s financial strength rating, citing the high exposure to the real estate sector and weakening asset quality.

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Thriving gastropubs buck broader market trend

By Daniel Thomas and Pan Kwan Yuk

Published: August 26 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 26 2008 03:00

The chipped wooden floors, blackboard menus and open-plan kitchens of the English gastropub continue to prove a popular pull for consumers amid a broader downturn in the pub trade, causing investors to take another look at the sector.

This week, private equity fund manager Brockton Capital is to announce plans to almost double the size of its Realpubs gastropub joint venture, taking its London sites from seven to 12 following a deal with an undisclosed pub chain to take on a number of struggling pub sites.

David Marks, co-managing director of Brockton Capital, believes that people continue to want to go out to eat and drink for under £20 a head, even in the midst of a consumer slowdown.

"Our pubs are doing really well and we want to raise our exposure to this market," he says.

"The new pubs are in good areas such as west London where people are going to eat out two or three times a week, and want a relaxed place that they can meet their friends without going overboard."

Indeed, even as pubs continue to close down at an unprecedented rate across the UK, gastropubs appear to be one area that is bucking the trend.

"Food-led pubs are definitely doing much better than wet-led pubs," says Alex Paterson, a leisure analyst at Liberum Capital. "Within this, gastropubs in London seem to be holding up well."

According to Mintel, spending on eating out has increased by more than 21 per cent since 2003 and its growth is showing no sign of abating.

"What we are seeing is a bifurcation of the eating out market," says Mr Paterson. "Those that offer high quality food and those that have good value-for-money offerings are probably going to do well in a downturn. It's the guys operating in the middle market that are getting squeezed."

A combination of pub and gastronomy, the term gastropub was coined in the early 1990s following the opening of The Eagle on Farringdon Road in London. Founded by Michael Belben and chef David Eyre, The Eagle was among the first to offer high quality food in the simple, relaxed "public house" environment.

Since then, the gastropub concept has spread across London and the UK. Although their exact number is hard to quantify given that many pubs serve food nowadays, the latest Michelin Eating Out in Pubs guide - a good proxy for the "gastro" concept - has 559 listings, with 60 in London.

Realpubs' outlets, including the Metropolitan in Ladbroke Grove and the Bald Faced Stag in East Finchley, are characteristic of the gastropub model. Most weekday nights they are packed with 20- and 30-something professionals who can choose steak or sea bass for £15, while a large glass of Spanish wine costs £6.

Brockton Capital is to purchase the additional five freehold pubs vacant for about £10m, and will then refurbish and relaunch them with new identities aimed at this more aspiring customer. These are the first acquisitions for its £150m opportunity fund since 2006.

Brockton is not alone in talking up the niche sector's prospects. Ed Turner, commercial director of Geronimo Inns, which operates 22 unbranded gastropubs in and around London, says he has seen no slowdown in business in spite of signs in recent months of a weakening economy.

Like-for-like sales were up 13 per cent in July compared with the year before and turnover is expected to increase from £13m last year to £17m this year.

As a sign of his confidence in the market, Mr Turner says the company is looking to open another five gastropubs over the next year.

However, analysts caution against taking too rosy a view of gastropubs, and warn that those that fail to attract the right clientele quickly go under.

"The casual dining market is a still a good place to be in, but things are going to get tougher in the next year or two," says one. "Like restaurants, they have to deal with rising costs for everything from energy to food to labour. A lot will depend on location and being able to cater to what the locals want."

That view was echoed by Rob Claassen, owner of The Salusbury, a popular gastropub in Queen's Park in north-west London whose menu includes hearty-but-arty fare such as slow-cooked duck ragù with pappardelle.

Mr Claassen says two previous attempts to replicate the success of The Salusbury in Chiswick and St John's Wood had ended in failure, precisely because he was not able to get the right "cocktail" of location, cook and demographics together.

"In neighbourhoods where you have a lot of young professionals with discerning taste, a high quality gastropub like The Salusbury will work. But some people just want their bangers and mash."

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Overdue mortgage payments ‘on rise’

By Norma Cohen, Economics Correspondent

Published: August 25 2008 22:03 | Last updated: August 25 2008 22:03

Strains among borrowers with patchy credit are rising, with more falling behind on their mortgages and fewer able to refinance their higher interest rate loans, according to a report by Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency.

The report into the peformance of securities backed by so-called nonconforming mortgages shows that the total delinquency rate for mortgages rose to a record 23.31 per cent of the total pool as at June 30 – up from 22.17 at the end of the first quarter.

Seriously delinquent loans – those overdue by over three months – rose to 12.12 per cent of the total. Roughly 70 to 80 per cent of all subprime mortgages have been packaged into securities and their performance shows how those loans, never tested through an economic downturn, will behave.

Moreover, the rate at which borrowers are pre-paying their mortgages – which can often reflect refinancing activity – fell to 23.98 per cent from 24.75 at the end of the first quarter. S&P said it expects the trend to persist, “given a sharp contraction in refinancing options for borrowers and stricter lending criteria”.

Andy South, credit analyst at S&P and one of the authors of the report, cautioned against reading too much into subprime delinquency rates because “delinquencies are almost a way of life for subprime borrowers” and do not necessarily translate into defaults.

Nevertheless, the trend is worrying as the jobs picture weakens.

The report also highlights particularly weak sections of the market. For instance, one securitisation with a high percentage of second charge mortgages – piggyback loans secured by homes – shows sharp deterioration.

Meanwhile, delinquencies continue to rise among prime mortgages, the data show. Total delinquencies were 2.94 per cent of all loans as at June 30 against 2.33 per cent at March 30. Serious delinquencies were 1.0 per cent of total portfolios, a number S&P said was still very small.

However, the report highlights differences among the performance of lenders. “It just comes down to underwriting standards,” Mr South said. For example, loans generated by Bank of Scotland show noticeably higher arrears. Mr South said the securitisation had a relatively high number of self-certified loans – where borrowers provided no proof of income – within it.

But Northern Rock loans showed the sharpest deterioration. Even after taking account of the high number of borrowers refinancing with other lenders, mortgages in its securitisation vehicle, Granite, jumped by almost two-thirds between the beginning of March and the end of June.

Indeed, the average number of repossessions of homes securitised in Granite jumped to 353 a month in the second quarter from an average of 134 in the first quarter. S&P said that based on data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, it appeared that mortgages generated by Northern Rock accounted for one of every 13 home repossessions in the UK.

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US drillers set for $1bn award

By Sheila McNulty in Houston

Published: August 26 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 26 2008 03:00

A US federal appeals court ruled yesterday that 11 oil and gas companies should receive more than $1bn awarded to them in 2006 after the government effectively changed the terms of leases to drill off the California coast.

The US Court of Appeals was upholding a 2006 ruling that the government had breached the leases when federal law changes interfered with the companies' efforts to develop the oil and gas reserves off California.

The case points to the difficulties US oil and gas companies have developing oil and gas resources in the US.

Even when acreage is legally open to production, restrictive regulations about how properties can be developed have made it impossible for companies to follow through.

The US government had estimated the area contained more than 1bn barrels of oil equivalent.

Politicians have been critical of the industry for pushing for Senator John McCain's proposal to open up protected areas off the coast of Florida, saying they have yet to develop all the property currently open to production.

The industry can point to this case as a good example of why not all leased properties in the US are under development.

"We're very pleased and we believe it is the right result," said Lyndon Taylor, senior vice-president and general council for Devon Energy.

"This illustrates the importance of the government honouring its contractual obligations."

The nearly three dozen leases in this case were sold in the 1980s by the US Department of Interior to the 11 companies, which included Devon Energy, the biggest US oil and gas company solely focused on exploration and production.

The bigger companies, such as ExxonMobil, the world's biggest publicly listed oil company, also carry out refining and marketing.

"When any person, company or organisation enters into a contractual agreement in this country, they must fulfil the terms or pay damages, even if that entity is the US government,'' said Steven Rosenbaum, partner at Covington & Burling, which represented the 11 companies.

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Temasek doubles annual profits despite crisis

Published: August 26 2008 06:03 | Last updated: August 26 2008 06:03

SINGAPORE, Aug 26 - Sovereign fund Temasek, which pumped billions of dollars into Merrill Lynch and Barclays, said last year’s profit doubled in spite of the financial crisis due to the strong performance of its investments and on S$17bn (US$12bn) in asset sales.

Temasek Holdings, owned by Singapore’s government, said net profit rose to S$18.2bn (US$12.8bn) in the year to March 31, from S$9.1bn a year ago.

”The fallout of the credit crisis will continue to dampen the global economy over the next 24 months, with sharply escalated oil and food prices beginning to test inflation expectations,” Chairman S. Dhanabalan said in the firm’s annual report published on Tuesday.

Temasek said it had made S$32bn of new investments in its 2007/08 financial year, double the S$16bn it spent the previous year. Asset sales more than tripled to S$17bn from S$5bn a year ago.

Temasek’s portfolio value increased about 13 per cent to S$185bn (US$131bn) from S$164bn a year earlier, it said in its annual review.

Chairman Dhanabalan said that the group was worried about emerging risks of stagflation -- the combination of low or no economic growth and inflation.

”This presents huge socio-political as well as economic risks in the next three to five years. Opportunities may be limited in such a scenario.”

Temasek, the smaller of Singapore’s two wealth funds ranking behind the Government of Singapore Investment Corp, has sought investments beyond its core markets of Asia excluding Japan to boost returns and diversify assets.

Its one-year total shareholder return by market value was at 7 per cent.

Temasek, which is headed by Ho Ching, the wife of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, owns large stakes in many of Singapore’s biggest firms, including Singapore Telecommunications, DBS Group Holdings, Singapore Airlines, and PSA International.

Singapore assets accounted for 33 per cent of its total portfolio at the end of March, down from 38 percent in the previous financial year. Asia ex-Japan accounted for 41 per cent of the portfolio, up from 40 per cent in the previous year.

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Qatar Telecom to step up its expansion plans

By John Aglionby in Jakarta

Published: August 26 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 26 2008 03:00

Qatar Telecom intends to pursue its rapid expansion policy to achieve its goal of becoming one of the world's top 20 telecommunications companies by market capitalisation by 2020, its chairman said yesterday.

Sheikh Abdulla bin Muhammad bin Saud Al Thani told the Financial Times that QTel's buying spree will continue unabated. Its market cap has more than quadrupled to $18bn from from $4bn and its presence has grown from one country to 16 in the past three-and-a-half years.

"I think we're going at the right pace," he said. "It's well-studied, well-measured. Just look at our record and we'll keep going at the same speed."

Sheikh Abdulla was speaking hours after being appointed the chairman of commissioners of Indosat, Indonesia's second-largest mobile operator, following QTel's acquisition of a controlling 40.8 per cent stake in the company for $1.8bn.

He said QTel would not engage in vanity expansion, citing his refusal to "overbid" for an Egyptian licence, and only buy stakes in companies in its three core areas of GSM mobile operators, Wimax, a next-generation broadband technology, and enterprises that service businesses in the sector.

Geographically, QTel is confining itself to the Middle East, Asia and north Africa. "We keep looking at the market, monitoring and studying," he said. "Whenever we see an opportunity we'll go ahead aggressively."

QTel is not neglecting its home market, he insisted, where Vodafone, the world's largest telecoms company, has bought the licence to become the country's second mobile operator. The British company is to start operating within seven months.

"We thought differently in 2002 and we had to restructure the whole company, get the right people in the right place, bring the best quality of people in the company," Sheikh Abdulla said. "We had to focus on our customer, focus on our network, on our product mix. I think we're ready for any competition."

Prior to the Indosat purchase, QTel's major expansions have been rolling out Oman's second GSM operation in 2005, and buying a 51 per cent stake in the Kuwait-based Wataniya Telecom in March 2007 for $3.8bn.

Analysts are largely positive about QTel, saying that it has not just depended on the ruling family's deep pockets but brought in competent managers to run its subsidiaries.

Indosat is considered one of its riskiest deals because its success is dependent on Indonesia's supreme court overturning a lower court verdict that said Singapore Technologies Telemedia, from whom QTel bought most of the shares, could not sell to one entity. Jakarta is also rejecting QTel's attempt to buy more than 49 per cent of the company.

Sheikh Abdulla said he was confident the court ruling would go his way and the government would change its stance.

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Atomic overtures

By Bertrand Benoit in Biblis

Published: August 25 2008 18:02 | Last updated: August 25 2008 18:02

AKW Biblis

Cold rain beats down outside the Biblis power station (pictured above), but behind the airlock that isolates the slightly radioactive containment area, the temperature rises to uncomfortable levels. Past several other layers of steel, the nuclear reactor hums gently.

“See these beams,” says Frank Staude, an engineer for the RWE power group, sweat streaming down his cheeks. “They will protect us against the kind of earthquake that would leave no skyscraper in Frankfurt standing.”

The trusses are the latest in a series of investments worth a total of €1.2bn ($1.8bn, £950m) that RWE has made since 1999 to keep the 1970s Biblis running safely. Hartmut Lauer, the site manager, says the 2,500MW plant could “easily” run for another three decades, continuing to supply 60 per cent of power needs in Hesse, a German state roughly the size of Belgium.

As things stand, there is scant prospect of this happening. Between next year and 2012, RWE expects to power down and dismantle the plant’s two reactors as required under a 2002 government decision to phase out nuclear power in Europe’s largest economy. From being Hesse’s engine room, the small town of Biblis will revert to its ancient role as the region’s cucumber capital and home to the yearly Gherkin-Queen beauty contest.

Or will it? The mood is changing in a country that has long looked on its nuclear plants with extreme suspicion. As power prices rocket, Germans are beginning to wonder whether the phase-out was such a good idea. Last month, an opinion poll showed that for the first time since the government’s decision a majority of respondents favoured extending the lives of the country’s 17 remaining plants.

Sensing a turning of the tide, RWE, with the backing of Eon and Sweden’s Vattenfall, the other two operators of nuclear reactors in Germany, has made Berlin politicians an extraordinary offer that it hopes will persuade them to scrap the phase-out. “The people and the politicians have been asking us what we would do with the additional profits,” says Gerd Jäger, the RWE board member responsible for nuclear power. “What we are now saying is: we are going to give you some of it back.”

Because Germany’s nuclear plants have long been paid for – the youngest was built more than 20 years ago – and use relatively cheap fuel, they are highly profitable. Letting the plants run beyond 2020 would generate €10bn a year in additional income for the operators.

After years of campaigning for a return to nuclear without offering anything in return, the three groups have made a U-turn, floating the idea of a fund that would re-channel up to half of the windfall profits. The money could be used to finance research into renewable energies, extra spending on energy efficiency for households and industry, or even lower power prices for consumers.

The offer has captured the imagination of politicians in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, where advocates of nuclear are already in the vast majority. This, they think, could be the key to turning growing popular acceptance of nuclear into wholehearted backing. “The idea is so clever because the only thing the producers are missing right now is overwhelming public support,” says a Merkel confidant. “If they can persuade the people that they will get a tangible, by which I mean monetary, benefit from letting the plants run longer, they have won.”

Ms Merkel, a physicist by training, says she would like to revise the phase-out deal. But her hands are tied for now by the agreement she signed with the Social Democratic party, junior partner in her “grand coalition”, upon taking office in 2005. Since the SPD insisted on holding to the course set by Gerhard Schröder’s Red-Green coalition, the two parties agreed to disagree, postponing a decision about whether to scrap the law until after the general election in September next year.

There are dissenters in the SPD – people such as Helmut Schmidt, the former chancellor, or Wolfgang Clement, a retired economics minister, who insist the phase-out was a mistake. But they are not mainstream Social Democrats and the party has so far steadfastly refused to re-open the issue.

For the power generators and their CDU backers, this means next year presents a make-or-break opportunity to build a case for a return to nuclear. If they fail and the next government sticks to the phase-out, 7000MW of nuclear capacity will come off-line during the life of the next parliament. Germany’s divorce from nuclear power will have become irreversible.

But the nuclear advocates are optimistic. Both industry representatives and officials close to Ms Merkel think the country is undergoing an unstoppable re-conversion and that even the SPD will eventually admit the phase-out was a mistake. “The factors that conditioned the 2002 decision have changed radically in the past few years, whether we are talking about capacity estimates for conventional power, oil prices, power prices or the government’s new CO2 emission goals,” says Mr Jäger.

CDU politicians are beginning to ramp up their advocacy of nuclear, paving the way for a vigorous campaign ahead of the election. The industry’s biggest supporter in the government is Michael Glos, economics minister. Pulling out of nuclear, says Mr Glos, may make it impossible for Germany to fulfil its ambitious 2020 target of cutting CO2 emissions by 40 per cent of their 1990 level while keeping power prices affordable.

“It will be very hard,” he told the FT in answers to written questions. Every year, he said, nuclear power plants “save CO2 emissions equivalent to the emissions produced by road transport in the whole of Germany, and they do so at a very low cost . . . From an energy policy point of view, and given the need to keep power prices in check, a reversal of the phase-out is necessary.”

Independent experts think Germany may just be able to achieve its emissions goals without nuclear – but at a cost. This is partly due to higher prices for fossil fuels, but also because of the additional costs imposed on coal- and gas-powered plants by the EU’s emission certificate trading scheme. With the phase-out, they say, Germany will have to sacrifice one of its three targets – lowering emissions, keeping power affordable and cutting its dependence on Russian gas – in order to achieve the other two.

“In theory, you can pull out of nuclear and achieve your emissions goals,” says Claudia Kemfert, energy expert at the DIW economic institute in Berlin. “But this will require massive efforts in other areas, such as mobility, which will be very costly.”

Models developed by the Prognos forecasting institute for the government in 2007 showed that reversing the phase-out would cut wholesale and retail power prices by 25 and 10 per cent respectively by 2020, saving consumers and business up to €5bn a year while reducing CO2 emissions by an extra 60m tonnes a year. Meanwhile, an internal study by the economics ministry warns that even if Germany managed to replace nuclear’s 25 per cent contribution to total power generation with renewable and traditional power, the additional costs would dent the competitiveness of industry.

Others dispute whether the government’s CO2 targets can be achieved at all. Dietrich Austermann, a former CDU state economics minister and the first to suggest the fund idea now being floated by RWE, says the goal is only realistic on paper. “We do not have a fully workable alternative. Wind power is great but it fluctuates too much to replace the stable supply of nuclear. There are interesting ideas about how to store wind power, but we need time to develop them – time we do not have if we switch off our nuclear plants.”

The economics ministry is also concerned about a loss of technological expertise, not least about safety, amid what they see as the beginning of a nuclear energy boom elsewhere in the world. One example is the highly secure pebble-bed reactor that South Africa plans to build in 2010, which has excited industry watchers. Yet the design originated in Germany, where the experimental Thorium High-Temperature Reactor was shut down by political fiat years before South Africa acquired the licence.

Opponents of nuclear power dispute the figures of the power industry. An unpublished analysis by the SPD-led environment ministry suggests that the fall in production capacity caused by the phase-out would be more than made-up for by the deployment of renewable energy on a large scale. “The phase-out provides a powerful incentive for the deployment of renewable energy and the improvement of efficiency that would otherwise not be there,” says a ministry spokeswoman.

RWE’s Mr Jäger believes such scenarios are over-optimistic. “The construction speed of [conventional] power plants and transmission lines is much slower than expected,” he says. “One crucial reason is the increasing resistance in local communities to coal-fired power plants. We just had a plan for a twin 800MW coal plant in Saarland falling through because of political opposition.”

The pro-nuclear camp was given a serious boost in March when Dena, the government-controlled energy agency, warned of a looming “power gap” because of massive plant closures in coming years (several conventional plants are also nearing the end of their lifespan). Germany, it said, faced a power shortage from 2012, rising to an 11,700MW gap by 2020 – the capacity of 15 power plants.

Nuclear advocates also point to the radical overhaul of the power grid necessary for large-scale deployment of renewable energy. Unlike nuclear power, which is generated close to areas of high consumption, electricity produced by future wind parks off Germany’s thinly populated coastline would have to travel deep into the mainland through millions of German backyards, guaranteeing a flood of lawsuits. “I see the lack of acceptance for new plants, whether nuclear or not, as the single biggest argument in favour of letting nuclear plants run longer,” says Prof Kemfert. “If we do not, I fear the Dena scenario is precisely what will happen.”

Grassroots opposition to new gas and coal plants, from Hamburg to Westphalia, stands in contrast with the strong support for nuclear energy in those municipalities where plants are located. One of Germany’s most active pro-nuclear organisations is Asketa, an umbrella group for 25 local authorities home to nuclear facilities.

“Perhaps it is because we have lived with the plant for the past 30 years but here it is not such a big deal,” says Hildegard Cornelius-Gaus, mayor of Biblis and an Asketa activist. “Everyone knows someone who works there. Many people have visited the plant and seen for themselves how much is being invested in its safety. I would not trade it for a coal-powered plant for anything in the world.”

As more Germans begin to share Ms Cornelius-Gaus’s point of view, advocates and opponents of nuclear power are preparing for the coming public relations battle. The slogan of the 1980s Green movement – Atomkraft, nein danke! (nuclear, no thank you!) – is being recast as Atomkraft, ja bitte! (yes please!) and the unwieldier Atomkraft, nicht schon wieder!” (not again!).

The rival camps’ prospects seem evenly balanced. But with the first big wave of shutdowns scheduled for the years beyond 2009 and no political party contemplating the construction of new nuclear plants, both sides can rest assured that whoever wins the argument will have settled the nuclear debate for good.

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BAE's Turner sees defence as key to UK's international standing

By Sylvia Pfeifer, Defence Industries Correspondent

Published: August 26 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 26 2008 03:00

Britain risks losing its influence abroad unless it makes defence a bigger priority, according to Mike Turner, BAE Systems' chief executive who also warned his company could be forced to consider leaving the UK if military spending ever declined below a "reasonable level".

Mr Turner, who retires on Friday after 42 years with BAE, told the Financial Times in a final interview that what he would miss least was "the bloody allegations", a reference to the corruption claims surrounding the multibillion-pound contract to sell arms to Saudi Arabia that have dogged the company for the past four years and which BAE has consistently denied.

"They are annoying and I know it's wrong; wrong for the company, for my employees and for the country," Mr Turner said.

The 60-year-old, who has been chief executive of BAE, Britain's largest defence contractor, for the past six and a half years, said Britain needed to give greater priority to defence or risk losing its "say in the world".

"I'm very concerned that the politicians - and it's up to the politicians to decide - are not giving the priority to defence that is needed," he said.

His concerns are likely to resonate among those who have criticised the government for not prioritising military spending as Britain's armed forces fight two sustained conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Treasury agreed a budget with the Ministry of Defence last July providing 1.5 per cent real increases every year until 2010-11, saying this was the best settlement in almost 30 years.

But higher depreciation and impairment charges on equipment that has been heavily used left the MoD with only 0.9 per cent real increases for day-to-day expenditure and the need for heavy cuts in many areas.

Under Mr Turner's reign, BAE has focused its attention on expanding abroad, notably in the lucrative US defence market which now represents more than 50 per cent of total annual sales for the group. Its international expansion has often fuelled concerns that BAE could decide to move its headquarters to the US.

Mr Turner said that as long as the UK defence budget "stays at a reasonable level, I don't see any prospect of us leaving the UK". However, "if priorities are low in terms of defence spending, you would have to be concerned about that. I hope it doesn't come to that."

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環境税、９月から検討　環境相

　斉藤鉄夫環境相は26日の閣議後の記者会見で、税制改正をにらんで環境税の具体化に向けた議論に着手すると正式に発表した。中央環境審議会（環境相の諮問機関）に神野直彦東京大学教授を委員長とする「グリーン税制とその経済分析等に関する専門委員会」を設置、9月3日に初会合を開く。

　同委員会では(1)温暖化対策全体からみた環境税の位置づけ(2)原油価格が高騰するなかでの課税の効果(3)国民生活や産業界の国際競争力に与える影響(4)既存のエネルギー関係税との関係――などについて10月をめどに論点を整理する。11月にも環境省としての具体案をまとめる。

　環境税は石油や石炭への課税を通じて消費を抑制し、二酸化炭素（ＣＯ2）の排出を削減するのが狙い。斉藤環境相はガソリンなどの価格が高騰している現状を踏まえ、「景気に悪影響を与えるものであってはならない」とも述べ、経済状況を見ながら検討を進めるべきとの考えを示した。

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７月の企業向けサービス価格指数、1.3%上昇　日銀

　日銀が26日発表した7月の企業向けサービス価格指数（2000年＝100、速報値）は95.6となり、前年同月比1.3％上昇した。伸び率は前月と同じ。原燃料高などを背景に運輸分野の値上がりが続いている。前年比のプラスは06年12月から20カ月連続となった。

　企業向けサービス価格指数は輸送費や広告費、不動産賃貸など、企業間で取引するサービスの価格水準を示す。

　項目別では広告の下落幅が縮小した。北京五輪を前に家電などのテレビ広告が増えた。通信・放送は横ばい。前年に携帯電話の大幅な値下げがあった反動もあって、下げ止まった。運輸は前年同月比5.9％増となったが、伸び率は前月より縮小した。中国向けの荷動きがこのところ鈍っているという。

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サービス価格指数：１年８カ月連続で前年上回る

　日銀が２６日発表した７月の企業向けサービス価格指数（００年＝１００、速報値）は前年同月比１．３％上昇の９５．６となり、１年８カ月連続で前年を上回った。伸び率は６月確定値と同じだった。

　燃料費の上昇や新興国の貿易拡大で、運輸が同５．９％上昇と高水準を維持。ただ、中国向け鉄鉱石の荷動きが鈍化し、伸び率は６月（７％）を下回った。一方、携帯電話の割安サービスの影響が一巡し、移動電気通信は前月の６．６％下落から０．７％上昇に転じた。

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05年の産業連関表、国内生産額の伸び過去最低

　総務省は26日、産業間の依存関係をまとめた2005年の産業連関表（速報）を発表した。原材料など中間投入を含めた国内生産額は、製造業の生産拠点が海外に流出したことで00年に比べ1.6％増と過去最低の伸びとなった。第三次産業が全体に占める比率は58.6％と過去最高を更新し、経済のサービス化が進んでいることも浮き彫りになった。

　05年の日本経済の総需要は5年前に比べ3.3％増の1046兆円。輸出は5年間で29.3％と大幅に伸びた一方、公共事業が減ったことで国内最終需要は同1.9％減と調査以来初めて減少した。国内生産額のうち原材料など「中間投入」が占める割合は47.8％と、1980年以来となる上昇に転じた。原油価格や素材価格の上昇が影響した。

　国内生産額でみた産業構成では、第三次産業が5年前に比べて1.9ポイント増の58.6％となり、過去最高を更新した。商業が00年に比べ1ポイント増えたほか、情報通信やサービスも増加した。ただ、3ポイント増加した前回調査（00年）に比べ伸び率は鈍った。

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産業連関表：国内生産額が過去最低の伸び率　０５年版

　総務省が２６日発表した０５年版産業連関表（速報）によると、０５年の国内生産額は９７３兆８０６５億円で、前回調査の００年比１．６％の増加にとどまり、５５年の調査開始以来、過去最低の伸び率となった。小泉政権以降の公共事業削減で建設業の生産額が同１８．４％減少したことや、中国などアジアに生産拠点を移した情報・通信機器が同３５．０％、電気機械が同１５．６％それぞれ減少したことなどが響いた。

　中国や米国向けの輸出が好調だった鉄鋼は同４７．５％増、輸送機械は同２４．３％増と伸びた。このほか、高齢化の進展で医療・介護等が同１４．１％増加するなど、サービス業の増加が目立った。

　国内生産額に占める第３次産業の割合は５８．６％となり、同１．９ポイント上昇。第１次産業は１．４％で同０．１ポイント、第２次産業は４０．０％で同１．８ポイントいずれも低下した。第３次産業が一貫して上昇する中、第１次産業、第２次産業が低下する傾向は変わらなかった。

　産業連関表はモノやサービスが各産業間でどのように取引されたかを示す一覧表。政府が５年に一度まとめている。

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４―６月の需給ギャップ、マイナス0.2％　７四半期ぶり需要不足

　内閣府は25日、日本経済の需要と供給の差を示す「需給ギャップ」が4―6月期にマイナス0.2％と、7四半期ぶりのマイナスになったと発表した。景気後退が濃厚になる中で、個人消費や輸出の不振から需要が供給を下回った。足元では原材料高による物価上昇が続き、モノやサービスの需要も振るわないという「悪い物価上昇」が表れている。

　需給ギャップは物価変動の背景をみる指標。設備や労働力を平均的に使って生み出せる潜在国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）と実際のＧＤＰの差から割り出す。プラスだと需要超過で物価が上がりやすく、マイナスだと物価下落を招きやすい。

　13日発表のＧＤＰ速報から試算した4―6月期の需給ギャップは2006年7―9月期以来のマイナス。実質ＧＤＰが前期比0.6％減と1年ぶりのマイナス成長だったのが主因だ。

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書籍販売の明林堂書店、民事再生法を申請

　書籍販売の明林堂書店（大分県別府市）は大分地裁に民事再生の手続き開始を申し立て、25日に保全命令を受けた。負債総額は147億8000万円。 1982年創業。売上高のピークは2001年9月期の約211億円だったが、書籍の販売不振などで2007年9月期には約163億円まで落ち込み、最終赤字になった。閉店に伴う損失や過大な設備投資が経営を圧迫した。店舗数は九州を中心に約90店。

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アフリカに官民使節団を派遣　外務省と経済産業省

　外務省と経済産業省は26日、日・アフリカ間の貿易投資を促進するため、官民の合同使節団を派遣すると発表した。ボツワナやケニア、ナイジェリアなど計 13カ国を三グループに分かれて訪問。それぞれの国の要人や企業関係者などとの意見交換を通じて、投資や貿易の可能性を探る。商社や建設など計約60社が参加する予定。

　合同使節団に関しては、福田康夫首相が5月のアフリカ開発会議（ＴＩＣＡＤ）で、アフリカ側の日本からの投資増の期待に応えるため、派遣する方針を発表していた。

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輸入小麦価格、上げ幅圧縮　政府の10月売り渡し分

　政府は10月に予定した国内製粉会社に売り渡す輸入小麦の価格改定で、引き上げ幅を計算上、必要な23％から圧縮する方針だ。消費者への影響を考慮し、今年4月の引き上げ時と同様に激変緩和の措置をとる。総合経済対策を検討中の政府・与党内には値上げを極力避けるよう求める声もあるが、財政負担の増加にもつながるため、圧縮幅はなお調整を進める。

　小麦は国内消費量の9割程度を政府が輸入して売り渡している。毎年、4月と10月に価格を改めており、10月に引き上げれば昨年4月以降、4回連続となる。

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自動車用金属が大幅安　北米、需要減見込む

　プラチナや亜鉛といった自動車向け金属の国際価格が軒並み急落している。北米を中心とする自動車販売の不振で部品需要が減少するとの観測が市場で高まっているためだ。金属相場は経済の動きに敏感に反応し、世界景気の減速感が強まる現状を映す。投機マネーも資金を引き揚げ、広範囲な国際商品で調整色が広がっている。一方で、新興国向けのインフラ需要が堅調な銅などは下げが小幅で二極化傾向もみられる。

　世界的な景気拡大を見込んで上昇していた自動車向け金属相場だが、米国の信用力の低い個人向け住宅融資（サブプライムローン）問題を背景に世界景気が減速、基調は大きく転換してきた。

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白金先物ミニを上場、個人マネー呼び込む　東工取

　東京工業品取引所は11月をメドにプラチナ（白金）先物ミニを上場する。既に500グラム単位で取引できるプラチナを上場しているが、ミニはその5分の 1の100グラム単位で取引できる。9月17日の理事会で正式決定する。低額商品の上場により、個人のマネーを呼び込む。

　プラチナ標準取引は現在、期近が1グラム約5000円。商品先物取引に必要な証拠金は標準取引で15万円程度（500グラムあたり）だが、ミニでは2、3万円程度（100グラム）に抑える見通しだ。

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住商フルーツ、ＣＯ２排出枠付きのバナナ

　住商フルーツ（東京・文京）は26日、二酸化炭素（ＣＯ2）排出枠の付いたフィリピン産バナナを9月15日に発売すると発表した。日ごろの買い物で環境保護に貢献できる点を売り込み、1年間で約6000トンの販売を目指す。

　発売するのは「自然王国エコバナナ」。ブラジルの水力発電やアルゼンチンの風力発電によるＣＯ2削減分を排出枠として購入し、バナナ1房（4―7本）あたり約5円を上乗せして販売する。1房で約1キロのＣＯ2削減につながるとしている。

　バナナの栽培過程でも農薬の使用量を抑えたり、洗浄水をリサイクルしたりするなど環境に配慮する。2009年度には栽培から店頭に並ぶまでに出るＣＯ2量をラベルなどで表示する「カーボンフットプリント」にも取り組む計画だ。

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ＴＶ各局、北京五輪の視聴率で明暗

　24日閉幕した北京五輪のテレビ視聴率で、放送局ごとの明暗が分かれた。時差が少ないため前回のアテネ五輪に比べ視聴率は総じて高かったが、日本選手が活躍した競技とそうでない競技で視聴率に差が生じ、放送局も一喜一憂した。

　落胆を隠せないのは野球や男子サッカーを放映した局。野球の決勝トーナメントはフジテレビジョンとＴＢＳが放映したが、平均視聴率が最も高かったのは3 位決定戦（日本対米国）の14.7％で、いずれも15％未満と事前の期待ほどは伸びなかった。テレビ朝日はサッカー男子の1次リーグ2試合を放映したが、いずれも視聴率は1ケタにとどまった。

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食肉各社、国内肥育を強化　エスフーズ、ブランド牛に本格参入

　食肉加工各社が国産の牛や鶏の肥育事業を強化する。エスフーズは専門会社を設け、ブランド牛の肥育に本格参入。伊藤ハムと丸大食品は牛、日本ハムは鶏の肥育数を増やす。食の安全への関心が高まるなか、餌や肥育場所など生産履歴が明確な国産肉の需要が伸びると判断した。

　エスフーズはこのほど肥育事業の子会社エスファーム（兵庫県西宮市）を設立。宮崎県や大分県の牧場と組み、2010年から自社ブランド牛を本格的に出荷する。従来は牧場に資金を投じて肥育を全面委託してきた。自前の専門会社を持つことで子牛の餌や肉質を点検し、より細かく生産管理にかかわる。

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セイコー、ロシア市場開拓　富裕層に高級腕時計拡販

　セイコーウオッチはロシアの腕時計市場を本格開拓する。同社ブランドの高級腕時計を扱う販売子会社を設立するとともに、直営小売店を展開する。ロシアは資源高に伴う好景気で富裕層の購買意欲が旺盛。1000億円といわれる同国の腕時計市場はスイス勢の人気が高いが、セイコーは2010年にも10％のシェア獲得を目指す。

　モスクワに全額出資子会社「セイコーロシア」を設立した。資本金は5000万ルーブル（約2億1000万円）。社長はセイコーウオッチの後藤守利参事が兼務する。9月から社員3人程度で営業を始め、順次増やす。

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タクシー会社のエムケイ、札幌に12月進出

　タクシー会社のエムケイ（京都市、青木信明社長）は25日、12月から札幌市内で営業を始めると発表した。当面の初乗り運賃（1.6キロ）は650円とするが、来年5月にも札幌市内の一般的な小型車より2割強安い500円に値下げする考えだ。2012年度末には約150台体制に事業を拡大する予定で、既存業者との競争が激化しそうだ。

　まずエムケイ子会社のエムケイ観光バス（同市、金本達也社長）が12月から、札幌市のタクシー会社、リンクアップ（山崎正徳社長）から事業を譲り受け、タクシー約20台で営業を始める。来年1月には北海道運輸局に運賃の引き下げを申請。来年8月をメドにエムケイ観光バスからタクシー事業を分社し、札幌エムケイを設立する。

　同日会見した青木社長は「実車率5割を目指す」と表明。繁華街のススキノやＪＲ札幌駅に乗り場の拠点を設けるほか、新千歳空港までの定額運賃も検討している。また全車両の1割にハイブリッド車の高級ミニバンを導入する。

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埼玉県内の7月の景況感21ポイント悪化　埼玉りそな財団調べ

　埼玉りそな産業協力財団（利根忠博理事長）が25日発表した埼玉県内の7月の企業経営動向調査によると、国内景気ＢＳＩ（「上昇」と回答した企業の割合から「下降」とした割合を引いた値）はマイナス73で前回調査に比べ21ポイント悪化した。「上昇」と回答した企業はゼロで、同財団は「景気は後退局面入りした可能性が高い」とみている。

　「上昇」がゼロだったのは2002年10月以来。業種別では窯業・土石、電気・ガスなどがマイナス100となったほか、建設（マイナス88）や不動産（同）も大幅に悪化した。原材料高や消費者心理の冷え込みなどが全業種に影を落としているようだ。

　先行き（おおむね半年後）についてはマイナス78と、今回調査より悪化を見込んでいる。

　景況感だけでなく、収益環境の悪化も鮮明になっている。08年4―6月期の経常利益ＢＳＩ（季節調整済み）はマイナス23で前回調査から8ポイント悪化した。02年1―3月期以来の低水準。受注の不振や仕入れ単価の上昇が要因という。

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九電が大牟田に太陽光発電所を建設　10年末の完成目指す

　九州電力は25日、同社として初めての本格的な太陽光発電所を福岡県大牟田市に建設すると発表した。2010年末の稼働を目指す。太陽光発電は設備投資を含めた電力量当たりのコストが原子力や石油火力に比べ高いのが難点。だが、7月に政府が温暖化対策として太陽光発電の導入促進を掲げたのに対応し、導入に本腰を入れ始めた。

　新発電所の出力は3000キロワットで、設備投資は約25億円の予定。大牟田市新港町の石炭火力発電所跡地に建設する。現在九州には出力1000キロワット以上の太陽光発電設備はＪパワーと化粧品会社の2社しか保有しておらず、完成すれば九州最大規模となる。今後の建設計画などを含めても全国で5番目の規模。

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決まらぬ次期戦闘機　「本命」Ｆ22Ａは禁輸、対抗馬にも課題

　防衛省が導入を目指す航空自衛隊の次期主力戦闘機（ＦＸ）選定が難航している。空自が切望する最新鋭ステルス戦闘機「Ｆ22Ａ」は米議会が機密保護を理由に輸出を認めず、調達は困難な情勢。開発中の「Ｆ35」を軸に欧州勢の「ユーロファイター」が対抗馬となりそうだが、ともに決め手に欠けており調整は長期化が避けられない。

　「中ロが軍事費を増やすなか、防空能力の質的優位を保つのが難しくなる」。防衛省幹部は25日、機種選定の遅れにため息をついた。

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コンデンサー火災多発　夏場、高温で劣化発熱

　省エネのため工場や店舗に設置されるコンデンサーで、夏場の火災が多発している。昨年までの5年間、東京都内ではコンデンサー火災の大半が6―8月に集中。今年も同じ傾向だ。夏場は高温のため劣化が進みやすいためで、東京消防庁は注意を呼びかけている。

　コンデンサーは絶縁体などの働きで効率よく電力を使い、無駄を減らす装置。200ボルト以上の交流電源を用いる工場や店舗の配電盤に取り付けられている。400ボルト未満の電源を扱う小規模な工場ではコンデンサーの点検が法令で義務付けられておらず、劣化に気付かず出火するケースが目立っているという。

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東大宇宙線研、「スーパー宇宙線」を観測へ

　東京大学宇宙線研究所や米ユタ大学などの研究チームは25日、理論限界を超えた高いエネルギーを持つ「スーパー宇宙線」をとらえる実験を始めたと発表した。

　宇宙線は宇宙から地球に猛スピードで飛来する粒子。米ユタ州の砂漠に約500台の検出器を並べてとらえる。この宇宙線が本物なら、宇宙の成り立ちを説明するアインシュタインの特殊相対性理論の見直しにつながる可能性がある。

　実験は日米と韓国、ロシアの研究機関が共同で取り組む。琵琶湖よりも広い約700平方キロメートルの広さの土地に並べた検出器で、スーパー宇宙線が大気の原子と衝突、原子核が壊れて降り注ぐ素粒子の雨（空気シャワー）をとらえる。

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太田農相「問題ない」　農水省に再び衝撃

　「新たに問題を起こしたわけではない」。26日、事務所費を巡る不透明な処理が発覚した太田誠一農相（62）は閣議後の記者会見で語気を強めて釈明した。不祥事による交代が相次いだ農相に今月2日就任したばかり。農林水産省に再び走った衝撃に、職員らは「またか」と困惑、選挙区の住民からも「きちんと説明を」と厳しい声が上がった。

　午前11時に省内で始まった記者会見に薄いオレンジのネクタイ、グレーのスーツ姿で現れた太田農相は淡々と閣議の報告をした後、報道陣の質問に答えた。

　当時の政策秘書の自宅を政治団体の事務所と記載したことについて「議員会館を事務所にしようとしたが、会館は資金管理団体以外の政治団体の事務所を置けないので、次善の策で秘書が自宅を事務所に届け出た」とメモに目を落としながらほとんど表情を変えず、説明した。

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ナイガイ、希望退職に251人応募

　靴下大手のナイガイは26日、270人の希望退職の枠に251人の応募があったと発表した。原則、31日付で退職する。応募者に特別退職金を支給し、再就職を支援する。これで募集を打ち切る。連結ベースで年14億円の人件費削減効果を見込む。特別退職金などを想定して既に2008年1月期に5億円の特別損失を計上しており、業績への影響はないという。
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裁判員制度で約32億円要求　09年度予算に最高裁

　最高裁は26日までに、来年5月に始まる裁判員制度で市民に支払う日当や旅費として、政府の2009年度予算に約32億円を概算要求する方針を決めた。市民が審理に参加する裁判員対象事件数を1年間で約3600件と想定、裁判員やその候補者に支払う日当を約20億円、旅費を約12億円と算定した。

　裁判員制度は一事件につき50―100人の候補者が呼び出しを受け、6人の裁判員と2―3人の補充裁判員が選ばれる。

　日当は最大1万円で、選ばれなかった候補者にも最大8000円の日当や旅費が支給される。裁判員裁判の7割は3日以内で終わる想定だが、5日以上かかる事件も1割はあるとみられる。

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トラック業者が初の一斉行動　燃油高でデモなど

　燃油価格の高騰を受け、各地のトラック運送業者が26日から「経営危機突破一斉行動」を始めた。東京や岡山など31都道府県で決起大会やデモ行進をしたり、横断幕を付けたトラックを走行させたりして、国や地方自治体に、高速道路料金や地方税の軽油引取税引き下げなどの対策を求めた。

　全日本トラック協会（東京、中西英一郎会長）の呼び掛けによる、初の全国統一的なアピール活動。同協会傘下のトラック運送業者は約5万1000社で国内業者の8割強を占め、初日の参加者は合計2万人規模に上るという。

　このうち岡山市内では同日午前、岡山県トラック協会に加盟する業者のトラック約30台がＪＲ北長瀬駅から県庁まで約8キロをパレード。決起大会と合わせ約700人が参加し、「世界一高い高速料金の値下げを」などと訴えた。

　午後には都内でも自民党本部内の大ホールで決起大会が開かれ、関東1都7県の協会などから約1000人が参加する予定。

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クリーニングの価格転嫁理解を　厚労省がポスター

　厚生労働省は25日までに、原油価格の高騰でコスト増に苦しむクリーニング業界が価格転嫁することについて、消費者に理解を求めるポスターを15万枚作製した。業界団体などを通じて全国のクリーニング業者に配布する。同省が今回の原油高で一般向けのポスターを作製するのは異例。

　厚労省生活衛生課は「クリーニング業界は原油高で苦しむ典型的な業界。このままだと業者が次々につぶれたり、クリーニングの質が落ちて不衛生な状況になる可能性がある」とポスター作製の理由を説明している。

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“福田ＫＹ”金メダル級…北島への国民栄誉賞に二の足

福田康夫首相

　男子平泳ぎ史上初の２大会連続２冠を達成した北島康介（２５）への国民栄誉賞授与について、福田康夫首相の優柔不断ぶりがまたも明らかになった。ほかのメダル獲得勢との兼ね合いから決断しかねているようで、五輪に関してうっかり発言も連発しており、ＫＹぶりは相変わらずだ。

　当初は北島への国民栄誉賞授与に前向きだった首相だが、北島以外の連覇達成者や、話題を集めた競技への配慮から二の足を踏んでいるとみられる。賞に明確な基準はなく、首相の決断に委ねられている。

　明治大政経学部の高木勝教授は「北島には実績もあるし、授与はふさわしい。タイミングが大事で、優柔不断な判断をしないで、すぐにでも出すべき。政治判断の鈍さを露呈している」と批判している。

　一方、２５日に豪州のエバンズ元外相との会談に臨んだ福田首相は、北京五輪の話題に触れ、「アーチェリーのような今まで考えなかったものも銀メダルを取った」と発言。後にあわてて「アーチェリー」を「フェンシング」と訂正したが、同席した川口順子元外相を「外相」と呼び間違えるなど、臨時国会を控えて気もそぞろといったところだ。

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ガソリン高の夏：「安・近・短」志向くっきり

　７月の猛暑で始まった夏も、もう終盤。北京五輪があったのに海外旅行客は落ち込み、ガソリン高でマイカーの利用も減った。人気だったのは「安・近・短」志向の国内旅行。首都圏に近い行楽地は人出が１～２割増えた。エアコンやビールは売れたが、百貨店は売り上げ減に泣いた。去りゆく夏を総決算すると－－。

　◇日帰り増え海外敬遠

　旅行会社のＪＴＢ（東京都品川区）によると、この夏（７月１５日～８月３１日）の海外旅行客は前年より１７万人少ない２２５万人にとどまる見通し。燃料価格の上昇分を運賃に上乗せする「燃油サーチャージ」の高騰が影響しているという。日本航空によると、欧州便は片道２万８０００円の燃油サーチャージがかかるが、これは昨夏（１万２０００円）の倍以上の額だ。

　一方で国内旅行は盛況だった。東京から新幹線で約５０分の静岡県熱海市。長年、観光の低迷に悩んできたが、海水浴場「サンビーチ」のこの夏の利用者は前年より１６％多い１１万人に上った。ＪＲ熱海駅近くの土産物店主や旅館関係者は「客が増えた」と口をそろえる。ただ、店主は「買い物は少なかったね」。旅館関係者は「日帰り客が多かった」。

　下田市の伊豆急下田駅の７月の利用者数も前年より２割増えた。神奈川県箱根町でも鉄道利用者が前年より２割増えた。

　◇帰省の車５年ぶり減　

　ガソリン高の影響をもろに被るマイカーなどの利用は減った。東日本高速道路会社によると、お盆期間を含む８月７日～１７日に全国の高速道路を利用した車は、１日平均で前年より約１６万台（３．４％）少ない約４５６万台だった。この期間に前年より利用台数が減ったのは天候が不順だった０３年以来、５年ぶりという。

　例年、お盆に大渋滞する上信越道碓氷軽井沢インターから旧軽井沢（長野県）などの観光地へ向かう道路は、１３日は平日並み。１４、１５日はやや渋滞したものの車は流れた。

　◇エアコン倍増　

　家電量販店「ビックカメラ」（東京都豊島区）によると、エアコンと扇風機の７月の販売額は猛暑の影響で昨年の２．５倍に達した。一方、百貨店は原油高に伴う消費の冷え込みが顕著だった。高島屋では７月の売上高が前年比３．８％の減。特に家具などの高額商品の売れ行きが振るわなかった。「８月の成績も非常に厳しい」（広報担当）という。

　東京・日比谷のビアガーデン「サマービアガーデン＠日比谷シティ」は７月２２日～８月２２日の期間中、昨年より約１２００人多い約４０００人の来客があった。ビール業界全体では、発泡酒を含むビール類の７月の出荷量が前年に比べ９．６％増えた。

　◇西・東日本で続いた猛暑　　　

　気象庁によると、７月中旬～８月前半の日本列島は、太平洋高気圧に覆われ、西・東日本を中心に猛暑が続いた。

　特に西日本は、１９４６年に統計を取り始めて以来、７月の平均気温が３番目の高温となった。岐阜県多治見市（７月２６日）と大分県豊後大野市（同２７日）では３９度を観測した。東京都心は７月１２日から２９日間連続で真夏日となり、過去６番目の長さとなった。

　また、全国で梅雨明けした日（７月１９日）が平年より早く、台風の影響もほとんどなかったため、ほぼ全国的に降水量が少なかった。西日本の太平洋側は、７月としては最少、東日本の太平洋側も２番目に少なかった。

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鈴木文科相：１７競技に「ナショナルコーチ」

　鈴木恒夫文部科学相は２６日の閣議後会見で、２０１２年の五輪ロンドン大会や東京が招致を目指す１６年大会でのメダル獲得数を増やすため、柔道や体操など１７競技に「ナショナルコーチ」を置く方針を示した。現場の監督やコーチを統括し、選手強化の戦略を練る。０９年度予算の概算要求に約１２億５０００万円を計上する。

　文科省によると、柔道や体操などのほか、北京大会で４、５位の成績を残すなど「メダルまでもう一歩」の競技が対象。若手選手の海外修行や海外の指導者招へいなども検討し、ナショナルコーチがプロジェクト進行の全体を管理する。

　鈴木文科相は「大所高所から育成へのアドバイスができるような、見識の高い方を委嘱したい」と述べた。

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Russia’s Volgograd region harvests record amount of grain in 15 yrs

25.08.2008, 17.52

VOLGOGRAD, August 25 (Itar-Tass) -- Russia’s southern Volgograd region has harvested a record crop of five million tonnes of grain in the past 15 years, region Governor Nikolai Maksyuta said.

“A rich crop is a result of hard work by scientists and agronomists, harvester drivers, all those working in the field of plant-breeding,” the governor said.

“The high pace of the harvesting campaign is also a legitimate result of the purposeful work to ensure the permanent upgrading of the skills of personnel in the agro-industrial sector, the use of new technologies, and renovate machinery and equipment, and introduce new crops,” he said.

According to the regional committee for agriculture and food, 95 percent of land under crops have been harvested and hauled in five million tones of grain, an increase of 2,455,000 tonnes from last year.

The average yield in the region is 2,490 kilograms per hectare.

“We last harvested five million tonnes of grain in our region in 1993,” Maksyuta said.

“We can say with confidence that this year’s harvesting campaign will beat this record,” the governor said.

Another southern Russian region, Krasnodar Territory, has harvested nine million tonnes of grain and grain legums, a record amount over the past 25 years.

“The average yield per hectare was 5,600 kilograms – another record – which is 1,200 kilograms more than last year,” regional minister of agriculture and processing industry Igor Lobach said earlier.

“We have harvested seven million tonnes of winter wheat – the main food crop in Kuban – compared to 5.2 million tonnes last year,” he said.

The average winter wheat yield was 57,800 kilograms per hectare. In 16 districts, the yield exceeded 6,000 kilograms per hectare, he said.

The havesting campaign in an area of 1.6 million hectares began in Kuban on June 19 and ended on August 2.

Regional Governor Alexander Tkachev said earlier Kuban, which produces one-tenth of grain in Russia, would have a record harvest of grain of about 10 million tonnes this year.

“But what is important is that we have learn to grow not less than eight million tonnes of grain regardless of the weather,” he said.

Kuban is a geographic region in southern Russia surrounding the Kuban River. Traditionally, the Krasnodar Territory is referred to as Kuban, both officially and unofficially, although the term is not exclusive for the territory. It also embraces the republics of Adygea and Karachai-Cherkessia, and a part of the Stavropol Territory.

The Stavropol Territory, has harvested over 7.5 million tonnes of grain, thus beating its own record of 7.160 million harvested last year.

The region has yet to harvest one-tenth of the areas sown with grain, as well as buckwheat and millet. Corn yield is also expected to exceed last year’s level.

Regional authorities do not rule out that the overall grain harvest this year may reach eight million tonnes.

This year’s forecast is 85 million tonnes. Specialists say that 33 million tonnes of grain will be used as fodder (an increase of two million tonnes from last year), 12 million tonnes will be used for the needs of agriculture as seeds for next year, 21 million tonnes for food needs, four million tonnes for commercial processing (malt, starch, alcohol production), and one million tonnes will make “possible losses”.

Everything that is left after that can be exported. The remains of wheat, barley and oats of 9.3 million tonnes from last year can also be used to increase the export.

Specialists say that domestic demand for grain will be met by 100 percent.

This year’s grain yield has gone up by almost 1,000 kilograms per hectare in Russia as compared to 2007, an Agriculture Ministry official said earlier.

The Russian Agriculture Ministry has increased this year’s grain harvest forecast.

“As you remember, we forecasted a grain harvest of over 85 million tonnes this spring. We can see that the actual harvest will be larger,” he said.

The ministry will post the updated forecast after August 20.

The Russian Grain Union said that Russia might harvest up to 95 million tonnes of grain this year.

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東芝、韓国の原発大手と提携…国際的建設ラッシュに対応

　東芝と造船重機大手ＩＨＩ（旧石川島播磨重工業）、韓国最大の重工業メーカー、ドゥーサン（斗山重工業）の３社が原子炉製造で提携することで合意したことが２６日、明らかになった。

　東芝は米原子力大手・ウェスチングハウス（ＷＨ）を買収したが、ＩＨＩ、ドゥーサンという有力な原子力関連企業も陣営に取り込み、大量受注をこなす生産体制を整える。各国で建設増が見込まれる原子力発電所の受注を優位に進める。

　東芝―ＷＨグループはすでに米国と中国で計１２基の加圧水型原子炉（ＰＷＲ）を受注、２０１５年までに世界で３３基の原子炉を受注する目標を掲げる。しかし、沸騰水型原子炉（ＢＷＲ）を手がけてきた東芝にはＰＷＲの技術がなく、ＷＨもＰＷＲの設計、開発技術はあるものの、長く米国で原発建設が凍結されたため生産設備を持っていないことが課題となっていた。

　今回の提携で、東芝はドゥーサンからＰＷＲの製造ノウハウを提供してもらい、東芝と関係が深いＩＨＩがＰＷＲの主要機器である蒸気発生器などを新たに製造できるように体制を整備する。

　東芝はＩＨＩと原発事業を含むエネルギー・プラント事業の包括提携を検討していたが、原発の受注ペースが速いため、第１段階として原子炉製造で、ドゥーサンも含めた提携を優先することにした。

　中国の原子炉はドゥーサンが、米国はＩＨＩが製造する見通し。東芝とＩＨＩはすでに、受注を生産につなげる３社提携の具体的な内容について協議を進めている。

　ドゥーサンは韓国最大手の重工業メーカーで、原子力プラントなどを製造し、２００７年１２月期の売上高は４兆９００億ウォン（約４０９０億円）に上る。

　日本原子力産業協会によると、世界３８か国・地域で運転中の原発（２００８年１月現在）は４３５基に上り、建設中は４３基、計画中も５３基ある。温暖化防止の観点から原子力発電所の需要は高まっており、今後２０年間で計１５０基以上の建設が見込まれている。

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創建ホームズ、民事再生法の適用申請　負債総額338億円

　戸建て住宅事業を手がける創建ホームズは26日、民事再生法の適用を東京地裁に申請し、受理されたと発表した。負債総額は338億円。住宅需要の落ち込みで業績が低迷。全従業員の4割を削減するなどして経営の立て直しを目指したが、金融機関の融資姿勢が厳しくなったことが響き、資金繰りが行き詰まった。

　同社は首都圏を中心に建売住宅や分譲マンションを販売。地価高騰による住宅価格の上昇が消費者離れを招き、2008年2月期の連結最終損益は5億8200万円の赤字となった。このため、7月末には希望退職により全従業員の4割に当たる約100人を削減。さらに営業所を集約するなど事業の再構築を進めていた。

　ただ、米国の信用力の低い個人向け住宅融資（サブプライムローン）問題を契機とした金融市場の混乱で金融機関が融資姿勢を厳しくしたことから「今期に入り新規借り入れや借り換えが困難になった」（創建ホームズ）といい、今月末の決済資金を調達するめどが立たなくなった。

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ナイガイ、希望退職に251人応募

　靴下大手のナイガイは26日、270人の希望退職の枠に251人の応募があったと発表した。原則、31日付で退職する。応募者に特別退職金を支給し、再就職を支援する。これで募集を打ち切る。連結ベースで年14億円の人件費削減効果を見込む。特別退職金などを想定して既に2008年1月期に5億円の特別損失を計上しており、業績への影響はないという。