China introduces new forex controls

China introduces new forex controls

By Andrew Wood and Peter Garnham

Published: August 7 2008 23:30 | Last updated: August 7 2008 23:30

China has strengthened controls on inflows of foreign exchange into the country to deal with fears of speculative “hot money” that could destabilise the economy, while at the same time making it easier for capital to leave its borders.

Analysts said the move could stem the rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves, the largest in the world, and slow the pace of the renminbi’s appreciation.

The changes were a “comprehensive revision” of the previous rules on foreign exchange, which were last updated in January 1997, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the regulator, said.

SAFE said it would take “safeguard and controlling measures” over its international payments system to protect the economy in a crisis. Fresh measures to bring “convenience to trade and investment” include a simpler process for Chinese companies and investors to get approval for overseas investment, SAFE said.

They will no longer be required to repatriate foreign income and sell it to or deposit it with selected banks – such rules were a hangover from the 1990s when the authorities’ main fears were about outflows of capital.

Although few details of the proposed changes were made available, analysts said it seemed that the measures were likely in part to be aimed at stemming hot money inflows – speculative funds that can cause asset price inflation and which can destabilise financial markets when withdrawn en masse.

These inflows were estimated to be as much as $200bn in the first half of the year and represent significant inflationary challenges to policymakers.

“Tougher access to Chinese financial markets will put a lid on liquidity, which has been fuelling inflationary pressures on the mainland,” said Sherman Chan, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com.

Analysts said the changes were also consistent with the authorities’ apparent desire to slow the pace of renminbi revaluation.

Indeed, on the news, the currency forwards market moved from pricing in a 3.7 per cent rise in the renminbi against the dollar over the next year to pricing in a 3.5 per cent climb.

The renminbi, which is still tightly managed by the Chinese authorities, has appreciated markedly since it was de-pegged from the dollar in July 2005, rising nearly 18 per cent against the greenback.

The renminbi’s rate of appreciation has accelerated this year as China sought to use a rise in the currency to stem rising inflationary pressures.

But there has been a slowdown in the renminbi’s appreciation this month, sparking speculation that Beijing has moved away from using the currency as a tool to counter inflationary pressures to using it as an instrument to promote growth.

David Forrester at Barclays Capital said the measures could also slow China’s foreign currency reserves, putting pressure on the euro against the dollar.

He said the near doubling of China’s FX reserves since 2007 to $1,800bn played a crucial role in driving the euro higher against the dollar.

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Russia says it has control of S Ossetian capital

By Charles Clover in Moscow, Harvey Morris at the United Nations and agencies

Published: August 8 2008 19:29 | Last updated: August 9 2008 11:12

Russia said Saturday it had taken control of the capital of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia, as it widened the offensive against Georgian government forces in the second day of fighting.

Russian military said it had driven Georgian forces out of South Ossetia’s capital, and admitted that two of its warplanes had been shot down. Reuters agency quoted Russian officials as saying the death toll now stood at 1,500 and 30,000 refugees from South Ossetia had fled to Russia over the past 36 hours.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said on Saturday he would seek parliamentary approval for the introduction of martial law in Georgia.

Russia intervened to back the separatist government in South Ossetia on Thursday night after Georgian army began asserting control over the region, triggering the worst fighting between the two sides in the area in 20 years.

Diplomatic efforts on Friday night failed to avert a wider crisis after Russia and Georgia traded accusations of ethnic cleansing during the UN Security Council’s second emergency session on the crisis within 24 hours.

Irakli Alasania, Georgian envoy to the UN, said Russian air attacks had extended to Abkhazia, another breakaway territory in Georgia.

South OssetiaRussia’s Vitaly Churkin said the Georgian authorities were to blame for the flight of civilians following their destruction of schools and hospitals in South Ossetia.

The crisis threatens international oil and gas pipelines and could bring Moscow into confrontation with Washington, which backs Georgia.

Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, said: “The United States calls for an immediate ceasefire to the armed conflict in Georgia’s region of South Ossetia. We call on Russia to cease attacks on Georgia by aircraft and missiles, respect Georgia’s territorial integrity, and withdraw its ground combat forces from Georgian soil.”

US president George W. Bush and Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin, both attending the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, discussed the situation.

Mr Putin is closely associated with preparations for the 2014 winter Olympics in Sochi, the Black Sea resort a few hundred kilometres from Georgia’s western border.

Mr Putin discussed the Sochi Olympic preparations with Jacques Rogge, president of the International Olympic Committee, in a Friday meeting, but did not touch on the border clashes.

According to Reuters, the conflict is affecting the Russian and Georgian Olympic teams in Beijing, but a Georgian team marketing official said he did not think it would create tension between athletes.

Georgia said it reserved the right to use all means to protect its civilian population. Mr Saakashvili told CNN: “We have Russian tanks moving in. We have continuous Russian bombardment since yesterday . . . specifically targeting the civilian population . . . Russia is fighting a war with us in our own territory.”

Mr Putin condemned “aggressive actions” by Georgian troops and said Russia would be compelled to retaliate. “They have in effect begun hostilities using tanks and artillery. It is sad, but this will provoke retaliatory measures.”

Last spring, Georgia began negotiations to join Nato, angering Russia.

Moscow has always supported the South Ossetian government, as well as the neighbouring region of Abkhazia, and Georgia accuses Russia of seeking to annex the two territories, which Russia denies.

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Eurozone banks give better quarterly report

By Gerrit Wiesmann in Frankfurt

Published: August 9 2008 02:22 | Last updated: August 9 2008 02:22

Fewer eurozone banks tightened lending conditions in the second quarter than in the first as better financial market conditions appeared to ease the flow of funds to financial institutions, a survey by the European Central Bank said.

But more lending officers of the 112 banks polled cited worries about economic woes – rather than market turbulence – as a reason for stricter credit standards while a growing number said that rules would tighten further in the next months.

The ECB said the most important factor in tightening credit rules in the last quarter “continued to be a deterioration in expectations about the economic outlook”. More banks were likely to tighten lending conditions in the current quarter.

The findings of the ECB’s quarterly bank lending survey chime with recent economic data from the 15-member eurozone suggesting that growth is declining rapidly, given high energy prices and slowing growth around the world.

Aurelio Maccario, an economist at UniCredit, said he was sure the eurozone credit cycle had already turned. “The biggest risk is that the slowdown [of credit growth] becomes progressively faster, hitting the investment outlook.”

Two weeks ago, the ECB revealed the growth of loans flowing from eurozone banks to business was still growing strongly, at an annualised rate of 13.6 per cent in June. But this was already off the record 15 per cent in March.

Friday’s survey suggested the trend might continue as 32 per cent of banks – two points more than last time – reported fewer inquiries for business loans in spring. Meanwhile 30 per cent said they also expected less demand in the third quarter.

At the same time, 46 per cent of the banks polled said they expected conditions for business loans to tighten, up a point from their last three-month forecast in April. Other banks saw no change either to demand or credit conditions.

“Overall,” the ECB said, “responding banks felt the wholesale funding situation had improved somewhat compared with the situation in the previous quarter,” and access to money markets and debt-security markets should remain as good this quarter. Luigi Speranza, an economist at BNP Paribas, said this was “moderately encouraging against a backdrop of weakening growth”.

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Cambridge link mooted for academy

By David Turner, Education Correspondent

Published: August 8 2008 23:32 | Last updated: August 8 2008 23:32

State school children could be taught by dons from one of Cambridge University’s most exclusive colleges under plans being considered for an academy.

The senior tutor at St John’s, Cambridge, raised the “possibility” that the college would sponsor an academy, in an interview with the Financial Times.

Securing sponsorship from such a prestigious source would be a coup for the government’s six-year-old academy programme – a bid to raise educational standards by creating semi-independent state schools.

Matthias Dörrzapf, who is in charge of the education and pastoral care of students at St John’s, said: “You could have dons giving lessons and being on the governing body.” The sponsored school could be as far afield as London, he said.

Mr Dörrzapf made clear that no final decision had been taken. One hurdle would be to ensure that students from the academy would not have an unfair advantage if they applied to attend the college as undergraduates.

“The admissions process would have to stay very fair,” he said.

St John’s and Trinity, its even grander neighbour, took the smallest proportion of candidates from state schools of all 29 undergraduate colleges last year.

But Mr Dörrzapf said college staff were “thinking what we can do to help” with the university’s large outreach programme to raise the educational aspirations of state school children.

In three years’ time the college celebrates its 500th anniversary, and sponsoring an academy would be an eye-catching initiative. “In 2011 we would like to do something with an impact,” Mr Dörrzapf said.

Cambridge is the latest in a growing line of universities that are considering academy sponsorship, which include University College London, a member of the Russell Group of elite British institutions.

Sponsorship chimes with universities’ core educational mission and their aspiration that academically gifted children who are from deprived backgrounds should benefit from higher education. Most academies are in poor areas.

Universities that are involved with academies are known in Whitehall jargon as “educational sponsors”. They are exempt from the £2m contribution that was originally obligatory for all sponsors of academies.

Cambridge University continues to oppose academy sponsorship – although this does not constrain sponsorship by individual colleges, which are semi-autonomous.

In defending its decision, the university echoed Mr Dörrzapf’s fears. “Given the competitiveness of admission to Cambridge, significant involvement in an academy could lead to a conflict of interest,” it said.

Oxford University said it was a “national” university and so “would be reluctant to be formally associated with a single school”.

Neither university was aware of any discussions by other colleges to sponsor academies.

Malcolm Grant, provost of UCL, has made clear that the academy that it is planning to sponsor will not be a feeder school for the college.

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Norilsk board votes in ex-KGB agent as chief

By Catherine Belton in Moscow

Published: August 8 2008 20:36 | Last updated: August 8 2008 20:36

Norilsk Nickel’s board of directors on Friday voted in a former KGB agent as its new chief executive, the second change of chief in just over a month, amid an escalating battle for control of the world’s biggest nickel miner.

The move comes in the face of opposition from Oleg Deripaska’s UC Rusal, which holds a 25 per cent stake in Norilsk and is locked in a battle for control of the company with Vladimir Potanin, the Russian billionaire who is its biggest shareholder.

UC Rusal, which holds three seats on a nine-member board, voted against the appointment of Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, saying the company needed someone with professional experience of the metals and mining industry. Mr Strzhalkovsky, whose candidacy was forwarded by Mr Potanin and who runs Russia’s state tourism committee, has none.

But Mr Potanin said the appointment of Mr Strzhalkovsky would ensure state support for international expansion and help secure “stability . . . and co-operation between shareholders.”

Yet, Alexander Bulygin, UC Rusal’s chief executive, attacked the decision Friday night and said the company would push ahead with plans to call for an extraordinary shareholders meeting to re-elect the board.

Mr Strzhalkovsky had been seen as an ally of Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, having worked for 11 years in the KGB in Mr Putin’s hometown of Leningrad. His candidacy had been seen as a sign the state was moving in to contain the shareholder conflict.

Mr Bulygin said he did not fear his company’s opposition to Mr Strzhalkovsky’s candidacy was going against the grain of state interests. “Mr Strzhalkovsky told me he was Mr Potanin’s candidate. He has known him since 2001.

“It is clear to me that he is absolutely affiliated with Mr Potanin,” he said.

Mr Strzhalkovsky told reporters Friday night that his role was to raise “the company’s profit”. He added that “any large company should be interested in good relations with the government”.

Mr Bulygin again claimed Mr Potanin’s Interros group was breaking corporate governance standards to win control over the company, and said Interros’s conduct had brought it to crisis as senior management have started to leave en masse, while production was falling some 8-11 per cent.

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Banking on the Games may be an Olympic error

By John Authers, Investment Editor

Published: August 8 2008 19:51 | Last updated: August 8 2008 19:51

The Olympics are following a 20-year cycle. As in 1968 and 1988, the Games are providing a grand coming-out party for a vast city in the emerging world.

The parallels are too close for comfort. Mexico City 40 years ago and Seoul 20 years ago both looked a lot like Beijing now. Both practised, on a smaller scale, the kind of policies that have worked for China in recent years. Imperfectly democratic politics meshed with managed crony capitalism to spur great growth.

Like its predecessors, China is desperate to avoid any whiff of scandal.

Both those Olympiads saw many records tumble but are best remembered now for moments of high controversy – the black power salute by US athletes from the podium in Mexico City, and the positive drugs test by Canadian sprinter Ben Johnson in Seoul.

Economically, the parallels are discomfiting. Mexico had grown at an average of 6.3 per cent in real terms in the 20 years up to the Games. But a massacre of student protesters on the eve of the Games, apparently ordered to prevent the world’s press seeing dissent during the Games, permanently damaged the one-party government’s legitimacy. It lurched into populism and fell into a series of economic crises. Growth over the ensuing two decades averaged 4.5 per cent, and then fell further.

For South Korea, 1988 was economically as good as it got. According to the IMF, its economic growth that year was 10.6 per cent, the third successive year of double-digit growth.

It has never reached double digits since and the country suffered its own financial crisis in 1997. Overall, economic growth averaged 9.2 per cent in the two decades leading up to the Games and has averaged 5.7 per cent since.

Both countries showed the limitations of managed growth. After a hectic period of industrialisation, they ran into much greater headwinds once the Olympics were over.

The parallels with China, which is growing even faster than Korea 20 years ago, are obvious. Chinese stocks are showing the limits on the government’s ability to manage markets. The authorities imposed a swingeing stamp duty on equity trading last May in a bid to prevent a boom, but the Shanghai Composite still gained more than 40 per cent from there before the bubble burst.

On the way down, the authorities tried to arrest the decline by removing the stamp duty again this April. Stocks still fell another 20 per cent before stabilising.

Interference persists. China’s Securities and Regulatory Commission sent out a circular last month telling money managers not to make negative comments about the Chinese equity market. “Stability is the top priority to the regulator and everything that the regulator does is just for the sake of a harmonious and successful Olympic Games,” it said.

Market stability will take more than letters like this to maintain. But what of economic stability?

Exports offer little cause for concern. Shipments to the US grew by 12.1 per cent year on year in the second quarter – a slightly faster growth rate than at the end of last year. Exports to the EU and Japan rose at a faster rate and, overall, they expanded by almost 20 per cent.

The rate of growth of exports has declined from a peak of more than 35 per cent. The question of what would happen if the US and Europe lapse into an all-out recession remains open. But such growth is impressive.

As for inflation, always a concern when an economy has grown as fast as China’s, both consumer and producer price inflation are hovering near 10 per cent – although consumer inflation has fallen slightly, thanks to easing food prices.

An obvious way to deal with this would be to allow the exchange rate, which has already appreciated by almost 21 per cent against the dollar since China removed its firm peg, to appreciate more swiftly.

That would choke off some export growth (to the relief of China’s trading partners). But exports have grown steadily throughout the appreciation that has already happened; it is a difficult decision.

Finally, China’s lack of transparency has allowed all kinds of theories on the Games’ impact on commodities. One holds that Beijing helped push oil prices up by hoarding oil ahead of the Olympics. This would explain how oil prices grew so high without evidence that inventories of oil were rising – something that would normally happen if speculators were trying to push the oil price up.

Commodities leave inventories, for accounting purposes, as soon as they are transported to China and, instead, show up as consumption.

Some analysts pooh-pooh this theory but many believe it, and it has affected market forecasts.

The stakes are high. For the rest of the world, China, no longer the US, is the consumer of last resort.

And the lessons from Mexico and Korea are disquieting. It will be hard to avoid controversy and scandal while the Games are on. Clumsy attempts to do so can do more harm than good. And it will be hard to avoid bumps in the road for the economy once the Games are over.

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Georgia cancels flights to Europe, except for Turkey and Ukraine.

09.08.2008, 07.00

MOSCOW, August 9 (Itar-Tass) -- Tbilisi’s international airport has cancelled flights to Europe except fore Turkey and Ukraine.

All flights to Russia have also been cancelled.

Earlier in the day, Russia’s two leading airlines, Aeroflot and S7 /Sibir/ suspended flights to Georgia.

“A decision has been taken to suspend flights to Georgia,” Aeroflot’s press secretary Irina Danenberg told Itar-Tass, adding that the decision had been taken in the follow-up to the Russian Transport Ministry’s instruction to cancel air traffic between Russia and Georgia.

Aeroflot makes flights between Moscow and the Georgian capital Tbilisi.

S7 press secretary Irina Kolesnikova said the airline was suspending flights to Tbilisi, Kutaisi and Batumi.

“Our staff will contact shortly the passengers who purchased tickets for these flights and will tell them about the causes of cancellations and where and how they will be able to get back their money,” she said.

Representatives of the Georgian airline Airzena, which makes commercial flights to Russia on the Georgian side, declined to comment on the situation.

S7 makes three flights a week between Moscow and Tbilisi, one flight to Kutaisi and one flight to Batumi. Aeroflot makes six flights a week between Moscow and Tbilisi, and Airzena has daily flights between the two capitals.

S7 sources told Prime-Tass economic news agency earlier in the day the Georgian aviation authorities had sent a telegram requiring a change of the traditional route that crosses the territory of Ossetia and telling the airline to fly via Azerbaijan.

Regular flights between Russia and Georgia resumed last spring after an interval that had lasted a year and a half.

Russia suspended flights to Georgia for the first time in October 2006 because of Georgia’s debt for air navigation services. They resumed in March 2008.

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Why Every Investor Should Have a China Investment Strategy

[The First of Two Parts]

By William Patalon III
Executive Editor
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

As we’ve said time and again here at Money Morning, every investor has to have a China investment strategy.

And with the opening ceremonies for the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympic Games taking place today (Friday), this is probably as good a time as any to review the long-term case for a China investment strategy, and to look at the key factors investors should keep in mind as they put their investment plan into action.

An old Wall Street adage holds that "the trend is your friend," a precept that we wholeheartedly subscribe to. Indeed, as we’ve often told readers, the very best profit plays you’ll find will emanate from such powerful global market trends as globalization, the soaring demand for food-and-energy-related commodities, and the emergence of such new markets as Brazil, Russia, India and China.

And right now, some of the biggest global trends are being fueled by China’s white-hot economy, which is expected to advance at a double-digit clip this year - despite a global financial crisis that’s threatened to throw the U.S. economy into reverse.

But many investors are so concerned about that global financial crisis that they’re opting to avoid the volatile China market entirely, fearing there’s just too much risk within that growing Asian dragon.

Such fears are understandable: After all, the benchmark Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is down 55.2% from its October peak, and was down as much as 58% - call it "double-bear-market" territory.

While "total avoidance" is certainly one form of China investment strategy - albeit an extreme one, at that - it’s not going to be a profitable one, at least not in the long term.

And the reason is simple: By avoiding China, investors are ignoring the facts - including the undeniable truth that China has become the world’s second-most-important country, and a reluctant superpower.

You need proof? Consider these facts:

* In 2007, China contributed more to global growth than the United States - becoming the first country to do so since the Great-Depression-ridden 1930s.
* China last year took over the top spot as the world’s largest consumer, pushing past the United States as the biggest user of four of the five most basic energy, food, and industrial commodities, Newsweek reported.
* China’s manufacturing sector is now bigger than its U.S. counterpart, with an output value that eclipses the $2.7 trillion in annual production generated by U.S. factories - a capability that could ultimately also enable the Asian Grand Dragon to position itself as a military superpower.
* And China is now the world’s No. 2 market for automobiles and the No. 1 producer of ocean-going merchant ships.

And this is just the beginning.

During a January 2007 speech in Beijing, economist and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. "Larry" Summers pointed out that Europeans who lived through the Industrial Revolution saw their standards of living increase by about 50% during their average 40-year lifespan. When industrialization spread to the more-entrepreneurial United States, living standards of the beneficiaries improved by four to five times. But residents of Asia - and especially China - who live through the ongoing "Asian Miracle" will see their living standards improve a hundredfold during their lifetimes - or 10,000%.

The wealth created from all this growth during our lifetimes alone will be enormous. But it won’t happen overnight, and it won’t occur in a straight line. Just as we’ve seen here in the U.S. financial markets, there will be periods of political and economic strife that whipsaw the values of such assets as stocks, bonds and real estate. Long-term, however, the trend is for the value of these assets to increase - and at a much steeper rate than we’ll see in any other market in the world.

That’s particularly true at a time when the United States may well be facing a Japanese-style "Lost Decade."

And that’s also why it’s crucial for every investor to have a China investment strategy.

[Editor’s Note: In Part II of this story next week, we’ll explore the key considerations that should go into any China investment strategy. Global Investing guru Jim Rogers has been particularly critical of how the world’s central banks have tried to "manage" the global credit markets. Indeed, in an exclusive interview with Money Morning earlier this year, Rogers predicted the failure of the U.S. Federal Reserve for this very reason. This is yet another reason why Rogers says that Asia - and specifically China - are the long-term antidotes for U.S.-only investment portfolios. To find out more about Rogers’ own China strategy and his favorite stocks - and to obtain a free copy of his new bestseller, "A Bull in China," check out this investing report.]

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What will be the outcome of the Georgian-Ossetian war?

08/08/2008 19:31 MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) - The very real possibility of full-scale war between Georgia and South Ossetia raises questions about its possible outcome.

At present, the Georgian armed forces have more than 30,000 men, including 20,000 ground forces. They are equipped with more than 200 tanks, including 40 T-55s and 165 T-72s, which are currently being upgraded. Apart from tanks, the ground forces have 200 combat armored vehicles, including about 180 infantry combat vehicles and armored personnel carriers (APCs). The ground troops can receive artillery support from 120 artillery pieces of 122 mm-152 mm caliber, 40 multiple-launch rocket systems, and 180 mortars.

The Georgian Air Force is equipped with five Su-25 (Frogfoot) close support aircraft, 15 L-29 and L-39 combat training aircraft, which can be used as light assault planes, and 30 helicopters, including eight MI-24 attack helicopters.

Available estimates put the South Ossetian forces at a mere 2,500 officers and men, or 16,000, including reservists. They are armed with 15 T-55 and T-72 tanks, 24 Gvozdika and Akatsiya self-propelled artillery units, 12 D-30 towed howitzers, six multiple-launch rocket systems, four 100-mm Rapir anti-tank weapons, and more than 30 mortars. In addition, the South Ossetian army has 22 infantry combat vehicles, 24 APCs, and six combat patrol vehicles.

The infantry is equipped with small arms of Soviet or Russian make, and has several dozen Fagot and Konkurs anti-tank rocket systems. Its air force consists of four MI-8 multi-purpose transport helicopters. South Ossetia can defend itself against air attacks with four to six Osa, three Tunguska, three Shilka, and six Strela-10 air defense rocket systems. It also has 12 23-mm ZU-23/2 twin antiaircraft guns (some of which are mounted on GAZ-66 trucks), and up to 100 Igla and Strela man-portable air-defense missiles.

A forecast of the outcome of this war (as well as a potential conflict with Abkhazia) cannot be based on mathematics alone. In the mountains, even a very small unit can resist a numerically much stronger enemy. In this case, the outcome of the conflict will primarily depend on the training of forces and the influence of third parties.

The training of the Georgian army is not likely to have changed much in the last two months and, with the exception of a few units, it is not rated too high. Like the Abkhazian armed forces, South Ossetian armies are better trained and motivated. Moreover, the Abkhazian leader has already expressed readiness to support South Ossetia in a war against Georgia.

Georgia can win only if it is backed by the United States and its other allies. And even with such support, its victory will mean heavy losses, and entail lengthy guerilla warfare.

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投信の85％が値下がり　サブプライムで混乱の１年

　投資信託の運用成績が悪化している。米国の信用力の低い個人向け住宅融資（サブプライムローン）問題が深刻化してから1年間の投信545本の運用成績を調べたところ、全体の85％の基準価格（時価）が下がり、下落率が最大で5割を超えたことがわかった。運用成績の悪化は個人マネーの投信市場への流入を鈍らせており、「サブプライムショック」が日本でも尾を引きそうだ。

　純資産残高100億円以上の追加型公募株式投信を対象に、調査会社のＱＵＩＣＫ・ＱＢＲが昨年7月末から今年7月末までの1年間の運用成績をランキングした。サブプライム問題を発端とする金融市場の混乱が本格化したのは昨年8月9日以降で、その影響を完全に織り込んでいる。

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製造業「ドル需要」拡大　ドル支払額、６月37％増

　石油や鉄鉱石など資源価格の高騰を背景に、製造業や商社などの「ドル需要」が拡大している。輸入に伴うドルの支払額は6月に493億ドル（約5兆 2000億円）と、前年同月に比べて37％増えた。日本企業が海外企業などに支払うドルは増加基調をたどっており、外国為替市場では最近の円安・ドル高の一因にもなっている。企業所得の海外への流出が続くと、国内の設備投資などを下押しする可能性もある。

　財務省の貿易統計の輸入額や通貨ごとの支払比率を基に算出した。原油や鉄鉱石などは通常ドル建てで取引される。これらの価格高騰を背景に、輸入の支払いに占めるドル建ての割合は2008年1―6月に73.9％と、前年同期に比べて1.1ポイント上昇した。

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米産牛肉、輸入禁止のひき肉混入　農水・厚労省発表

　農林水産省と厚生労働省は8日、米国から輸入した牛肉に、牛海綿状脳症（ＢＳＥ）の感染を防ぐため輸入が禁止されているひき肉が混入していたと発表した。両省は牛肉を出荷した米の工場からの輸入を当面停止。米政府に対し、混入の経緯や原因、特定危険部位がひき肉に混入していないかなどの調査を求めた。

　農水省によると、牛肉を出荷したのは米カーギル社のドッジシティー工場。商社のジャパンフード（東京・港）が7月24日に輸入した肩肉などの冷凍牛肉 298箱（約3.8トン）の中に、2006年7月の米国産牛肉の輸入解禁後も輸入が禁止されているひき肉のチューブ一本（約4.5キロ）が混入していた。

　千葉県船橋市内の倉庫で肩肉を保管していた食品卸の日本ピュアフード（東京・品川）が、米農務省が対日輸出の際に発行した衛生証明書に記載されていないひき肉の混入に気づいた。同社は肩肉を小売業者など向けに販売する予定だったが、中止した。

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７月の街角景気、４カ月連続低下　「景気の現状は厳しい」

　内閣府が8日発表した7月の景気ウオッチャー調査によると、街角の景況感を示す現状判断指数は29.3と前月に比べて0.2ポイント下がった。低下は4 カ月連続。ガソリンや原材料の値上がりに直面した企業の景況感が悪化している。内閣府は調査の結果から、「景気の現状は厳しい」との判断を示した。

　調査は景気に敏感な小売店の店主やタクシー運転手、職業安定所の職員ら約2000人を対象に実施。現状や2、3カ月先の景気について、「良い」から「悪い」までの5段階で答えてもらい、指数にする。

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インドネシア人の看護師候補ら、研修の開講式に出席

　インドネシア人の介護福祉士と看護師の候補者68人が8日午後、半年間の日本語研修を受けるため、財団法人海外技術者研修協会（ＡＯＴＳ）が都内で開いた開講式に出席した。看護師希望のエルリ・リドワンさん（男性、35）が代表であいさつし、「私たちは高い意欲を持っている。私たちの力が日本の皆さんのためになることを願っています」と述べた。

　7月に発効した日本とインドネシアとの経済連携協定（ＥＰＡ）に基づき、インドネシア人看護師ら約200人が来日した。東京や大阪などの施設で約半年間、日本語の研修を受けた後、来年から老人ホームや病院などで働く予定だ。

　ＡＯＴＳでは東京や横浜、大阪などにある施設で計149人を受け入れて研修に励んでもらう。開講式に先立って都内の日本記者クラブで開かれた記者会見では介護福祉士候補のダンタさん（女性、28）が「試験に合格すれば継続して働いていきたい。万が一試験に失敗しても、日本で得た経験を祖国で生かしたい」と語った。

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松下が新興国専用家電　09年度に70品目

　松下電器産業はＢＲＩＣｓ（ブラジル、ロシア、インド、中国）やベトナムなど新興国市場開拓に向け、現地の生活様式などに合わせた専用家電を開発、発売する。製氷機能を充実させたベトナム専用の冷蔵庫など、今年度中にまず50品目、2009年度には70品目程度に増やす計画だ。日本向けに開発した製品をベースにして世界市場を開拓する従来型の事業モデルを転換。今後、爆発的な需要増が見込める新興国市場を本格的に取り込む戦略だ。

　日本の家電各社はこれまで国内市場向けに開発した商品の仕様を一部変更する形で、新興国向けに供給してきた。松下はそうした体制では新興国の需要を十分に掘り起こすのは難しいと判断した。

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半導体・液晶工場、お盆期間も稼働　電機主要メーカー

　国内電機主要メーカーは本社部門などが夏季休業に入るお盆の期間も半導体や液晶パネルなどの主力部材の工場を連日稼働させる。デジタル家電などの高水準の需要に応える。自動車メーカーなどは期初計画通り来週は工場をほぼ全面的に休みにするなど、業種間で繁閑のばらつきも出ている。

　半導体各社は需要が好調で、昨夏と同様に休み返上で工場を稼働する。東芝はデジタル家電向けシステムＬＳＩ（大規模集積回路）を生産する大分工場（大分市）などで連日稼働。ＮＥＣエレクトロニクスはゲームや自動車向けが好調で、最先端ラインがあるＮＥＣセミコンダクターズ山形（山形県鶴岡市）などを休まず稼働させる。

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上場企業、経常減益幅が拡大　09年３月期見通し9.2％減

　上場企業の業績が厳しさを増している。2009年3月期通期の連結経常利益は前期比9.2％減と、期初予想（5.6％減）に比べ減益幅が拡大する見通しだ。原燃料高を理由に電力、化学などで業績を下方修正する企業が相次いでいる。自動車、電子部品などは米景気の減速が響く。国内でも景気後退色が強まり、事業の先行きを慎重に見る企業が増えてきた。

　経常減益は02年3月期以来7期ぶりとなる。8日までに08年4―6月期決算の発表を終えた全国上場1324社（金融、新興3市場除く）を対象に、日本経済新聞社が集計した。これは集計対象全体の81％に当たる。米国会計基準採用企業は税引き前利益を経常利益と見なした。

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イオン、ＰＢの地方産品倍増　100品目、購買層を拡大

　イオンはプライベートブランド（ＰＢ＝自主企画）「トップバリュ」で扱う地方産品を増やす。2009年2月末までに、全国の名産品や地場企業と共同で開発した商品を約100品目へと現在から倍増。地域による味などの好みの違いにさらにきめ細かく対応できるようにして、ＰＢ購買層のすそ野を広げる。

　地方の名産品を使った商品や地場企業などと開発した商品を、同社は「地域発！トップバリュ」として約50品目、売り出している。「伊勢志摩産長ひじき」や「宇治煎茶（せんちゃ）」など全国で販売している商品と、秋田県産の豆腐など産地限定で扱う商品がある。

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新日鉄、中国からコークス緊急輸入　八幡製鉄所火災で

　新日本製鉄は八幡製鉄所（北九州市）コークス工場の火災でコークスが不足する可能性が高まったため、中国から緊急輸入する。当初の輸入額は70億円程度とみられる。コークス工場の停止が長期化すれば輸入をさらに増やす可能性もある。新興国の需要増などでコークスの市場価格は上昇しており、新日鉄にとっては新たなコスト増要因となる。

　コークスは石炭を蒸し焼きにして作る鉄鋼の主要原料で、鉄鉱石とともに高炉に入れて使う。八幡のコークス工場に2つあるコークス炉は先月末に発生した火災の影響で現在も停止している。1つは今月中にも再開できる見通しだが、もう1つは復旧に時間がかかる可能性があるという。

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群馬県の観光客、07年度は３年ぶり減少　宿泊客も800万人割

　群馬県が8日発表した2007年度の観光客数・消費額調査（推計）によると、観光客総数は6059万人で前年度に比べ2.5％減少した。3年ぶりの減少となる。昨年9月に発生した台風９号の影響で、上野村や下仁田村などの観光客が大幅に減少したのが主因。宿泊客数はデータの残る1990年度以降初めて 800万人を割り込み今後、誘致に向けた一層の取り組みが求められる。

　日帰り・宿泊別に観光客数をみると、日帰り客は2.7％減の5262万人、宿泊客は1.1％減の796万人となった。消費者の「安・近・短」志向を背景に、宿泊客は減少傾向が続く。

　観光消費額は1748億円。07年度から消費額の推計方法を一部の市町村が変更し、前年度の消費額（1482億円）と単純比較はできないが、実質的には減少したとみられる。

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会場アクセスに不満の声、地下鉄は安全検査で不便に　北京五輪

　【北京＝尾崎実】北京五輪の競技が9日午前に本格的にスタートした。観客は朝から入場券を手に続々と各競技場に足を運び始めたが、五輪会場に向かう地下鉄の駅構内での乗り換えが、安全上の理由からできなくなり、不便さに不満の声が上がっている。

　メーン会場の国家体育場（愛称・鳥の巣）や国家水泳センターなど、主な競技施設が集中する五輪公園に向かうには、まず北京北部と東部を結ぶ半環状線の地下鉄「10号線」に乗車。北土城駅で「五輪支線」に乗り換えるのが一般的だ。

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水道水：「そのまま飲む」３７％　若年層ほど飲用不安視

　内閣府は９日、「水に関する世論調査」の結果を発表した。水道水の質に対する満足度を尋ねたところ、「すべての用途で満足」５０．４％▽「飲み水以外の用途で満足」３９．９％▽「すべての用途で満足していない」８％－－などとなった。「飲み水以外の用途で満足」の割合は２０代（５９．３％）、３０代（４６．８％）、４０代（４６．９％）で高く、若年層ほど水道水を飲料用として不安視している実態が浮かんだ。

　調査は今年６月、全国で２０歳以上の３０００人を対象に個別面接方式で実施し、１８３９人から回答を得た。

　普段の飲み水を複数回答で聞いたところ、（１）水道水をそのまま飲んでいる（３７．５％）（２）浄水器を設置して水道水を飲んでいる（３２％）（３）ミネラルウオーターなどを購入している（２９．６％）－－の順になった。

　水道水の質を今後どうすべきかについては、「このままでよい」が７２．４％で最も多く、「現状より水道料金等の負担が増えても、質を高くする」は２１．３％。料金に転嫁してまで水質改善を望む声は少数派といえる。

　「節水している」は７２．４％で、０１年の前回調査（６４．９％）より７．５ポイント増加した。逆に「豊富に使っている」は２５．８％で同３．８ポイント減少した。節水を心がけているのは「風呂」（７１．２％）、「洗濯」（５５．６％）、「洗面」（５０．３％）などだった。

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お盆：成田空港、出国ピーク　中国行きは大幅減少

　成田国際空港で９日、お盆休みを海外で過ごす人の出国がピークを迎えた。同空港会社によると、９日だけで約５万１６００人が海外へ旅立つ。帰国ピークは１６日と１７日。

　夏休み期間の同空港利用者は約３７４万５８００人で、前年に比べ約３・７％減る見込み。燃料価格の上昇分を運賃に上乗せする燃油特別付加運賃（燃油サーチャージ）の上昇などが影響した。

　特に北京五輪開催の中国への渡航者は、冷凍ギョーザ中毒事件、チベット暴動、四川大地震などの影響で大幅に減少。五輪観戦ツアーの売れ行きも伸び悩みだという。

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日産：「燃費の良さに石油富豪八つ当たり」ＣＭにアラブ怒る　イスラエルで放送中止

　日産自動車の乗用車にアラブの石油富豪が八つ当たりするテレビＣＭがイスラエルで放送され、サウジアラビアの当局者が、ペルシャ湾岸地域での日産車の不買運動などを示唆する事態に発展していることが８日分かった。ＣＭは現地の独立系販売会社が制作、放送していたが、日産は８日までに放送をやめた。

　日産によると、ＣＭはターバンを巻いたアラブの石油富豪風の男性が、燃費のよい日産車を見つけ、車体をたたいたり、ののしったりする内容。現地の独立系販売店が少なくとも今月から放送していた。

　現地報道などによると、サウジ当局者がサウジ系テレビの取材に対し、辛辣（しんらつ）な表現で「日産は（湾岸）地域でビジネスを続けたいなら謝罪すべきだ」と語ったという。

　日産の広報担当者は「現地の独立系販売会社が勝手な判断で流したもので、日産は全く関与していなかった」と述べた。現時点で不買運動が起きているという情報も入っていないという。

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厚生年金：赤字５兆円…昨年度時価収支で初、積立金運用損

　社会保険庁は８日、厚生年金、国民年金の０７年度収支をまとめた。厚生年金は簿価ベースでは黒字だったが、積立金の市場運用で大幅な運用損を出した影響で時価では５兆５９０９億円の赤字。０５年度分から公表している時価収支で赤字となったのは初めて。国民年金は簿価、時価ともに赤字だった。

　保険料収入の伸びや積立金の取り崩し増などで厚生年金の歳入は３６兆８３０億円となり、前年度を５８３３億円上回った。歳出は７４７６億円増の３５兆１４５１億円で、簿価上は９３７８億円の黒字。ただ、運用収入が４兆８７０５億円減少したことが響き、時価は大幅赤字となった。

　国民年金は歳入５兆５７２９億円、歳出５兆９３２２億円でともに前年度を下回り、簿価で３５９３億円のマイナス収支。時価は赤字幅が７７７９億円に膨らみ、２年連続の赤字決算となった。

　また、政府管掌健康保険の０７年度収支も公表。収入７兆７１６４億円に対し、支出は７兆８５１６億円で、１３５２億円の赤字だった。単年度赤字は０２年度以来５年ぶりで、内訳は介護分が３８億円の黒字だったものの、医療分は１３９０億円の赤字。

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国民年金保険料：市場化テストで納付率改善せず…社保庁

　社会保険庁は８日、国民年金保険料の収納業務を民間に委託する市場化テスト（０６年７月～０７年９月）の評価結果を公表した。３５の社保事務所の業務を受託した３業者について、コスト削減効果は認めながらも「納付率の改善にはつながっていない」と低い評価を下した。

　新規に民間委託した３０の社保事務所でみると、受託業者は１人の未納者に１カ月分の保険料を納めさせるのに、平均４３．６円の費用をかけていた。社保庁職員が前年度にかけた費用は平均９８．９円。しかし、社保庁は未納者から新規獲得した保険料の口座振替件数が、民は１カ月あたり２．２件なのに対し、官は１６．９件だと自賛している。