Inflation fears steer ECB away from rate cuts

Inflation fears steer ECB away from rate cuts

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

Published: August 27 2008 18:17 | Last updated: August 27 2008 18:17

European Central Bank policymakers signalled fresh alarm over the outlook for eurozone inflation on Wednesday even as German data indicated that headline inflation rates had fallen from record highs.

Comments by ECB governing council members suggested cuts in interest rates were far from being considered by the bank, despite the abrupt slowdown in eurozone growth.

Axel Weber, Germany’s Bundesbank president, warned that another increase in borrowing costs might be necessary when growth recovered.

Reflecting lower energy costs, Germany’s annual inflation rate dropped from 3.5 per cent in July to 3.3 per cent in August on a European harmonised basis, the country’s statistical office reported.

Economists forecast that eurozone figures, released on Friday, would show inflation across the 15-country region had also fallen, perhaps to 3.9 per cent or 3.8 per cent from the record 4 per cent in July.

But eurozone inflation still remains significantly higher than the ECB’s goal of an annual rate “below but close to” 2 per cent.

Lucas Papademos, ECB vice-president, warned in a speech in Buenos Aires that labour cost growth had accelerated and that inflation was likely to remain above the ECB’s target “for a considerable period of time before declining only gradually in the course of 2009”.

The ECB’s fear is that high inflation rates will become entrenched through “second-round effects” with slower growth having little dampening effect. The emergence of a wage-price spiral would “require a stronger degree of monetary tightening in order to achieve price stability”, Mr Papademos warned.

Earlier Jürgen Stark, an ECB executive board member, told a German newspaper that second-round effects had become “broad-based”. Heightening the ECB’s concerns, IG Metall, Germany’s powerful engineering trade union, has indicated it could demand a wage increase of up to 8 per cent in forthcoming wage negotiations.

The ECB policymakers’ comments reinforced expectations that ECB interest rates would remain on hold at least until well into next year.

Unlike the US Federal Reserve – which has slashed US borrowing costs in the past year – the ECB sees its job as focused on controlling inflation rather than riding to the rescue of economic growth.

Eurozone wages and prices are also slower to adjust than in other economies, strengthening the case for a more cautious stance by the ECB.

At the same time, the ECB is sticking to its forecast that eurozone growth could pick up this year. Gross domestic product contracted by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter and activity would remain “subdued” in coming months but “gradually recover in the fourth quarter of this year and in the course of 2009”, Mr Papademos said.

The ECB raised its main interest rate to 4.25 per cent in July largely to underscore its determination to counter second-round effects.

Mr Weber at Germany’s Bundesbank told Bloomberg that discussion about lower eurozone rates was “premature”. He went on: “If the economic outlook brightens somewhat again towards the end of the year and next year, which I still expect, we’ll have to see if action is necessary.”

The Bundesbank president expected that ECB forecasts for eurozone growth, to be released after its interest-rate setting meeting next week, would be revised downwards slightly while its inflation forecasts might be “slightly higher”.

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Weak dollar leads to US import gloom

ByJames Politi in Washington

Published: August 27 2008 21:08 | Last updated: August 27 2008 21:08

As trade kept the US economy afloat amid rising unemployment, a deep housing crisis and turmoil on Wall Street this year, much attention has been paid to America’s booming exports.

Both in agriculture and some areas of manufacturing, US producers of goods have benefited from strong growth overseas – which has boosted international de­mand – along with the weak dollar, which has made US producers more competitive on price.

But surging exports are only half the story. Just as importantly, if not more, America’s import economy has been losing steam, as US consumers are retrenching during the downturn and shifting away from imported goods that have become more expensive – another effect of the weak dollar.

Excluding imports of foreign oil, nominal demand for international goods and services fell 1.6 per cent in June, while real goods imports fell on a year-on-year basis in the second quarter by 2.3 per cent.

“The slowdown in imports has been pretty broad-based and has been continuing for some time,” says Abiel Reinhart, a US economic researcher at JPMorgan in New York.

Stunned economists were forced to boost their calculations of trade’s contribution to US gross domestic product earlier this month after surprisingly strong trade data showed nominal US exports grew twice as fast as imports in June, narrowing the trade deficit by 4.1 per cent to $56.8bn (£31.1bn, €38.7bn).

When the government updates its estimate of economic growth for the second quarter on Thursday, the figure is expected to be much higher than the 1.9 per cent annualised rate reported at the end of July before the most recent trade data. The consensus Wednesday morning among economists was of a 0.8 percentage point gain leading to annualised GDP growth of 2.7 per cent, with some even expecting it to reach as high as 3 per cent.

Nowhere is the change more apparent than in the Port of Long Beach in southern California, just south of Los Angeles – the largest in the US and an important shipping gateway to Asia.

Between January and July, loaded inbound containers were down 12.7 per cent compared with the same period last year, amid declines in import volumes for a whole variety of goods, including items such as furniture and bedding and ceramic products. Many of these products serve the housing industry, whose bust has been particularly painful in areas close to Long Beach as well as in nearby states such as Arizona and Nevada. Meanwhile, loaded outbound containers surged 23.2 per cent on a year-on-year basis, reflecting surging exports.

“Import volumes at the Port of Long Beach give us an early warning of what’s in store for the economy – in down times, it’s like the canary in the coal mine,” James Hankla, president of the Port of Long Beach Harbor Commission, told the FT.

“The import declines of the past 14 or 15 months have told us that US importers haven’t been banking on an economic rebound. We don’t expect much of a change in that through the rest of 2008, but by 2009, hopefully, we’ll start seeing the signs of a turnaround,” Mr Hankla added.

David Rosenberg, an economist at Merrill Lynch, said just before the June trade data was released that declining imports alone contributed 1.3 percentage points to US growth in the second quarter, compared with 1.2 percentage points for rising exports – the first time in five years that falling imports played a bigger role than exports in propping up GDP.

“When you talk about net exports or the foreign trade sector to clients, they automatically think you’re talking about what we ship to overseas markets, and there is no doubt that booming exports have been a major source of support for the economy,” Mr Rosenberg. “However, what isn’t well known is that we just reached a point where the import part of the story is starting to dominate.”

Recent trends may mean the peak in the impact of stuttering imports on the US economy has passed, however. The recent rally in the dollar as global growth slows may make foreign imports more competitive in terms of price, preventing a shift in consumer habits towards American products.

Meanwhile, any signs that the US could emerge out of the global economic downturn ahead of other parts of the world would also lead to a rebound in imports.

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Pakistan aims for nuclear acceptance

By Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad

Published: August 27 2008 17:42 | Last updated: August 27 2008 17:42

The recent turmoil in Pakistan has only heightened western anxiety over the country’s nuclear weapons programme.

Yet, thanks to security measures put in place during the nine-year rule of President Pervez Musharraf, who was recently forced to resign, controls over the country’s nuclear activity have never been firmer, according to both Pakistani and western officials.

This may provide some reassurance to the west, but paradoxically could dent Islamabad’s hopes of following the faltering path on which India has embarked to international acceptance of its own nuclear energy programme. The Nuclear Suppliers Group, the global cartel of nuclear material suppliers, is to resume consideration of India’s agreement to buy US nuclear technology this week .

“The Pakistani military has taken full control of the nuclear programme and now hold the keys to this project. They have gone out of their way to demonstrate to all of us that they are firmly in charge,” says a senior western diplomat in Islamabad who tracks Pakistan’s nuclear developments.

Mr Musharraf focused on improving nuclear controls after revelations in 2004 that Abdul Qadeer Khan, the founder of the country’s nuclear programme, had traded know-how and technology with Iran, Libya and North Korea. Mr Khan has remained virtually under house arrest since then, with Pakistan denying repeated requests for western investigators to interview him.

“Please understand our sensitivity. As the president of Pakistan, I would be foolish if I accepted any foreigners intruding into our nuclear [assets]; we guard them very jealously,” Mr Musharraf declared earlier this year.

Amid the disclosures about Mr Khan, Mr Musharraf strengthened the military-run Strategic Plans Division (SPD), responsible for securing the 60 to 70 uranium bombs and three to five plutonium bombs that western intelligence believes have been produced.

The SPD set up a human reliability initiative to track the activities of up to 2,000 technical experts at the heart of the nuclear facilities, with knowledge that could assist with nuclear weapons production.

Other new safeguards included establishing a clear chain of command within the military under a three-star general who oversees the bombs in storage. The government, through agencies such as the SPD and the Nuclear Command Authority headed by the president, receives regular updates on frequent checks carried out to certify the safety of the nuclear weapons.

Mr Musharraf’s downfall, say analysts, has had no impact on control of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, which remains firmly with the military.

“There is no indication that the military does not exercise full control over Pakistan’s nuclear assets,” says Tanvir Ahmed Khan, a former Pakistani diplomat and head of the government-run Islamabad Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS). While the arrangement falls short of the civilian control generally held up by western states as best practice, Mr Khan says: “Responsibility is with an institution, which is reassuring.”

Western diplomats warn that the military must help with the creation of oversight mechanisms involving elected politicians to improve future prospects in areas such as securing civilian reactors from the western world. Pakistan is keen to seek a deal with the US similar to India’s ambitious initiative to secure a supply of US nuclear reactors.

So far, US officials have denied Islamabad’s requests, citing the risk of technology leakages to other countries. “Even if the military is firmly in charge of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, where is the civilian component in decision-making?” asks one senior US official.

“Ultimately, there will have to be evidence of a strong civilian oversight for the world to accept that we are moving in to a new and more reassuring phase. Maybe after President Musharraf, politicians gain enough clout in time that they become full partners in managing and securing the nuclear programme,” the official added.

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Germany to boost share ownership

By Bertrand Benoit in Berlin

Published: August 27 2008 16:32 | Last updated: August 27 2008 16:32

Workers could receive a bigger share of their companies’ profits under a series of measures adopted by the German government on Wednesday aimed at raising the low rate of equity ownership among employees to the level of that in other large European economies.

Peer Steinbrück, finance minister, presented the measures as a contribution to “social justice” and “equity” against a backdrop of rapid divergence between fast-rising corporate profits and stagnating wages.

“This is a significant update of Germany’s so-far rudimentary instruments of employee participation,” he said, adding that the public purse would contribute up to €230m ($338m, £184m) a year in new tax incentives to encourage employee share ownership.

Olaf Scholz, labour minister, said: “Germany has been lagging behind in this area. With these steps, we will ensure workers get their fair share of the success of their companies.”

Incomes from labour and capital have been diverging in recent years. Corporate profits rose by 37 per cent between 2003 and 2007 while wages grew by only 4.3 per cent. Yet German workers have had little opportunity to share in the profits of their employers, largely because more than 80 per cent of German businesses are private or family owned and do not have freely traded shares – a higher proportion than in the UK or neighbouring France.

Small business and trade unions have traditionally been sceptical of profit-sharing schemes, the former because of a reluctance to dilute their capital, the latter because of fears that workers could make their private savings hostage to the fortunes of their employers.

Mr Steinbrück said the government was now in talks with several banks with a view to creating a series of sector-specific funds in which non-listed companies could pool capital on a voluntary basis for their employees to invest in.

The funds would provide an avenue for private businesses to tap the savings of their workers without diluting their ownership while ensuring employees’ investments are protected against a possible insolvency, Mr Steinbrück said. “If several hundred companies participate in the fund and one of them goes bust, there is a very low risk of workers losing both their jobs and savings,” he said.

Underlining the social dimension of the draft, he said that tax incentives would only be available for profit-sharing schemes that are voluntary and available to a company’s entire staff as opposed to just management.

The plan, which will now go through parliament for approval, elicited a lukewarm reaction from business. Martin Wansleben, chairman of the German federation of chambers of commerce, said the initiative was “superfluous”, pointing at existing profit-sharing schemes in large companies and the fact that banks already offer a large number of equity funds for Germans to invest in if they choose.

Others warned that the funds could crowd out other forms of corporate benefits, such as pension schemes.

● With its initiative to encourage profit-sharing schemes, the government is seeking to address concerns about rising inequalities and defuse what could become the defining debate ahead of next year’s general election.

In addition to the widening gap between corporate profits and salaries, research published this week by an economic institute close to the trade union movement showed low and high wages were also growing apart. Real wages among the quarter of workers with the lowest pay had dropped by 14 per cent since 1995, the report said, while top earners saw their income rise by 3.5 per cent. These figures, together with similar studies, have sparked a lively discussion in a country that has long prided itself on having among the lowest pay differentials between shop floor and boardroom.

But separate figures from the Federal Statistical Office showed mounting tax inequality. It said 25 per cent of workers accounted for 80 per cent of total income tax, while 10m low earners paid no taxes at all.

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Iraq revives oil deal with China

By Carola Hoyos and Roula Khalaf in London

Published: August 28 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 28 2008 03:00

Iraq's oil minister yesterday revived a big oil deal first negotiated between China and the government of Saddam Hussein, but has indicated the terms of the contract would be far less generous.

If finalised, the deal with China National Petroleum Co to develop the al-Ahdab field would mark the first important commitment to Iraq by a foreign company since the country nationalised its industry in 1972.

Iraq and CNPC have agreed the renegotiated terms of an old deal signed in 1997 to pump oil from the al-Ahdab oilfield, Hussain Shahristani told the Reuters news agency. CNPC is Asia's biggest oil and gas company.

"Finally we have reached an agreement," Mr Shahristani said after clinching the deal. "The total investment of the project is expected to be about $3bn (€2bn, £1.6bn)."

But it was not clear yesterday whether the deal would still require the approval of a cabinet committee that has sought to scrutinise oil agreements.

An important area of contention are the terms of any contract Iraq signs with foreign oil companies.

Under a service contract, oil companies are paid a flat fee for their services, rather than gaining a share of the profits. Oil companies generally dislike service contracts because they do not allow for much upside potential. But advocates of service agreements have argued that oil companies take on very little risk in Iraq and should therefore not be rewarded with more than a flat fee.

The al-Ahdab field, 160km from Baghdad, is expected to be able to produce about 100,000 barrels a day. Iraq produces 2.4m b/d of crude, of which it exports 1.9m.

Reports from the region say the contract would last for 20 years and be worth anything from $1bn to $3bn. But much is still up in the air in Iraq and Mr Shahristani's ambitions have often been foiled by disagreements within Baghdad's power elite.

Analysts say political bickering is now doing more to delay the rehabilitation of Iraq's industry and the engagement of foreign companies than security concerns.

The oil ministry's efforts to sign short-term technical service agreements with oil majors - which would involve Iraq paying the companies for technical advice to raise oil output - have faltered, raising doubts over the fate of nearly year-long negotiations even as some companies say they are still interested.

Meanwhile, foreign companies bidding for longer-term contracts, which would involve billions of dollars of investment, are having to proceed without the security of clear hydrocarbons legislation. A draft law regulating the oil industry and the distribution of oil revenues has been stuck in parliament for more than a year, with little prospect of approval.

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West tells Russia to keep out of Ukraine

By Stefan Wagstyl and James Blitz in London and Roman,Olearchyk in Kiev

Published: August 28 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 28 2008 03:00

Britain led a chorus of support for Ukraine yesterday as western fears rose of possible Russian attempts to build on its victory in Georgia by threatening neighbouring states.

Speaking during a visit to Kiev, foreign secretary David Miliband called on the European Union and Nato to prepare for "hard-headed engagement" with Moscow following its military action in Georgia.

"Russia must not learn the wrong lessons from the Georgia crisis. There can be no going back on fundamental principles of territorial integrity, democratic governance and international law," he said.

Mr Miliband's remarks coincided with warnings from Bernard Kouchner, French foreign minister, and Carl Bildt, Swedish foreign minister.

In an unprecedented step, the foreign ministers of the G7 group of industrialised countries also yesterday issued a joint statement to condemn "Russia's excessive use of military force in Georgia and its continued occupation of parts" of the country.

The warnings came after Moscow this week recognised the independence of the breakaway Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the first effort to redraw international borders in the former Soviet Union since its 1991 collapse.

Mr Kouchner warned that the situation was "very dangerous" because Russia might now be considering other targets such as the divided state of Moldova and Ukraine, with its strategically important Crimean peninsula.

The comments came as the EU prepared for an emergency Georgia summit on Monday.

The US welcomed Mr Miliband's remarks but there was no immediate response from Moscow, which adopted a conciliatory tone urging the west not to damage broad mutual ties. Dmitry Medvedev, Russian president, was in Tajikistan, at a summit of central Asian states including China, seeking support for his actions in Georgia.

Mr Bildt, in a Financial Times interview, criticised Russia as "a 19th century power".

Meanwhile, Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's pro-west president, highlighted the potential for conflict by questioning the agreement under which Russia uses the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol, in Crimea, for its Black Sea fleet. He said Russia's actions were "a threat to everyone, not just for one country".

His remarks were echoed by Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgian president. In today's Financial Times, Mr -Saakashvili writes: "This story is no longer about my small country, but the west's ability to stand its ground to defend a principled approach to international security."

Meanwhile, the US avoided a potential clash with Russia by diverting a navy ship carrying aid to the Georgian-controlled Batumi instead of the Moscow-controlled Georgian port of Poti.

Georgia conflict, Page 6 Mikheil Saakashvili and Closer to the west , Page 13 Lex, Page 16 Market soured, Page 17 Lombard & People, Page 18 www.ft.com/southossetia

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Irish tax move revives fear of exodus

By Vanessa Houlder and Kate Burgess

Published: August 27 2008 22:08 | Last updated: August 27 2008 22:08

Fears of a corporate exodus from Britain were reignited on Wednesday when Henderson Group, one of Europe’s largest investment managers, said it was considering moving its tax base to Ireland.

Its announcement underlined concerns about the waning competitiveness of the UK tax system, which led to the departure of two multinationals in the spring. Many others are examining their options, including Brit Insurance, which on Wednesday confirmed it was “actively considering the issue of tax domicile”.

John Cridland, deputy director-general of CBI, the employers’ group, said: “The UK’s uncompetitive corporate tax system is driving firms overseas, and until this is recognised and tackled we fear more internationally mobile firms will follow this path.”

The Henderson board which has not made a final decision about its tax domicile, was spurred to examine the issue by the prospect of a rise in its effective tax rate. It has enjoyed a very low charge, but this is set to rise next year.

Tax experts said a move might prove controversial because of Henderson Global Investors’ advocacy of social responsibility in tax planning. In 2005 it published a paper setting out good practice “in performing the delicate balancing act of paying neither too much nor too little tax to serve shareholders’ interests while also demonstrating broader social responsibility”.

Evidence that more companies are considering fleeing Britain will add to the pressure on Alistair Darling, chancellor, who launched a review of tax competitiveness in April. The Treasury’s decision in July to drop controversial anti-avoidance proposals was greeted with relief by business, tempered by fears that improvements to the tax regime could be postponed until 2011.

Many multinationals argue that too much of their foreign profit potentially falls into the British tax net under existing anti-avoidance rules. Ireland, which does not apply similar rules, is proving an attractive alternative.

Bill Dodwell of Deloitte said most companies intended to wait until the Treasury had clarified its intentions. “There are few companies for which a move this year, rather than next, is an imperative,” he said.

The Treasury has extended an invitation for disaffected companies to raise concerns. On Wednesday Brit Insurance said it was continuing to engage in discussions with the government about the tax regime.

Heather Self of Grant Thornton, the professional services firm, said asset managers faced particularly uncertainty about how their foreign profits would be taxed.

Earlier this year, Aberdeen Asset Management, a fund manager, looked at relocating abroad.

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Dubai property heads off-plan

By Andrew England

Published: August 28 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 28 2008 03:00

Speculation about whether Dubai's real estate bubble will burst has been a favourite pastime of Gulf watchers for years, as one mega construction project has followed another. Doom-laden predictions have failed to materialise - so far.

With property prices up about 40 per cent this year - and a soaring 79 per cent in the past 18 months according to Morgan Stanley - questions about the sector are surfacing again.

In recent weeks Standard Chartered has issued a report warning that excessive speculation is creating the risk of overheating. And Fitch, the ratings agency, has said that "many challenges have begun to surface", mainly as a result of oversupply.

Morgan Stanley has created the biggest stir with a report that forecasts a probable 10 per cent fall in property prices by 2010. In the worst-case scenario, the US investment bank said, Dubai's real estate market could follow the trend of Singapore in the 1990s, when prices plummeted 80 per cent in 18 months.

Morgan Stanley's predictions were based on the assessment that oversupply would surface from the second half of next year. Others disagree. HSBC believes that, with sustained population growth of about 7 per cent and construction delays slowing delivery to the market, demand will continue to outpace supply until 2011.

"If you read the brokers' reports in 2006, most of the brokers were saying that there was an oversupply coming to the market in Dubai. Then they pushed it forward to 2007, now to 2008," says Majed Azzam, analyst at HSBC. "We don't see a danger any time soon." He describes the markets as "very tight", with occupancy levels high and "a huge shortage" still. "Your population is growing very fast and the developers are not delivering on time."

A big issue for market watchers is the lack of transparency, however. The largest developers are affiliated to the government or the ruling family, and authorities could intervene at any time to delay projects or simply take over buildings if demand dissipates.

The property market is critical to the overall health of the emirate's economy because it touches on many other sectors and acts as a bellwether for other Gulf states. Real estate and construction accounted for about 30 per cent of Dubai's gross domestic product last year, according to HSBC.

Sean Gardiner, head of research at Morgan Stanley, acknowledges that the potential for government intervention in the market is a risk to his forecasts.

"It's very difficult from both supply and demand because access to quality data tracking these two drivers is limited," he says. No one knows the income levels of the people who arrive in the country each day. "How many work as unskilled labour on construction sites? How many work in the service industry, where housing and food is included in their monthly pay?"

Some new arrivals can afford property, but the numbers are not available, Mr Gardiner says. "Visibility is very low."

The bear case comparison between Dubai and Singapore in the 1990s is not probable, he says, because the emirate is unlikely to suffer a broader economic crisis.

"There's a call here where we think there is the risk of the market experiencing a soft landing, and there's the other, more important call: as an investor are you going to be buying Abu Dhabi or Qatar over Dubai?"

Where there is consensus is on the issue of speculation in the market, which has intensified this year, particularly in regard to properties under construction. With negative real interest rates and the poor performance of Dubai's equity market, real estate has become a favourite for investors and a sponge for much of the liquidity in the market.

Off-plan properties are particularly attractive because investors - who analysts say include wealthy individuals, local and foreign, and US and European hedge funds - put as little as 5 per cent in down-payment.

Emaar and Nakheel are among large developers that have announced restrictions on off-plan sales in a bid to tackle speculative buying.

But Marios Maratheftis, head of research at Standard Chartered, says the authorities could be doing more, even though he believes the fundamentals are positive.

A concern of his is that much of the speculative investment may be financed with consumer loans rather than mortgages, which could create debt problems in the future. Regional banks already have strong exposure to real estate and bankers have suggested that some lenders are growing cautious of the sector in Dubai.

"If this excessive behaviour continues, there is a risk of a correction in the future," Mr Maratheftis says. "Wherever that has happened elsewhere it has been destabilising."

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Report of US currency rescue plan

By Krishna Guha in Washington

Published: August 28 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 28 2008 03:00

The US, Europe and Japan discussed the possibility of co-ordinated currency intervention to support the dollar at the time of the Bear Stearns crisis in March, according to Japan's Nikkei online.

The US Treasury declined to comment on the report, which also claimed that the G7 had considered issuing an emergency communiqué during the weekend of March 15 to March 16.

The Financial Times was unable independently to verify the Nikkei report. A G7 official said he understood that there were some preparations for possible currency intervention during that period, but did not comment on any international discussions.

As reported earlier in the FT, US and European policymakers have been concerned at various stages of the credit crisis about the possibility that, in an environment of persistent dollar weakness, a crisis at an individual financial institution could trigger a disorderly plunge in the US currency.

Such a disorderly decline would aggravate existing stress in other financial markets and could lead to foreign investors demanding a currency risk premium on all dollar assets, pushing up long-term US interest rates.

It would also increase the stain on economies such as the eurozone that have floating exchange rates, pushing up their own currencies to unsustainable levels.

This concern was acute at the time of the Bear Stearns crisis. G7 policymakers were in contact during the crisis and discussed potential spillovers in international markets.

However, in the event there was no emergency G7 statement. The G7 waited until their scheduled meeting on April 11 when they expressed concern about "sharp fluctuations in major currencies" and "their possible implications for economic and financial stability". They added: "We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and co-operate as appropriate."

This statement marked a shift in international currency policy. Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, remained generally sceptical about currency intervention, but was careful not to rule it out in all circumstances.

Prior to March, US and European officials were at odds over currencies, with eurozone officials concerned about the decline of the dollar against the euro, but US officials broadly welcoming this as a prop to growth.

However, following the April 11 G7 meeting, US and European officials told the FT they were united in their support for a stronger dollar. Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, joined Mr Paulson in talking in public about the US currency.

Policymakers believe that a crisis at a financial institution is less likely to trigger a run on the dollar in an environment of general dollar strength. A stronger dollar also helps to curb oil and inflation, and support confidence in US assets.

Without another Bear Stearns-style crisis, currency intervention remains unlikely, but if a similar crisis were to occur again and the dollar were to weaken precipitously, co-ordinated intervention is possible.

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日米欧、ドル防衛で秘密合意　３月の金融危機時

　米国の信用力の低い個人向け住宅融資（サブプライムローン）問題をきっかけにした米金融不安でドルが急落した今年3月、米国、欧州、日本の通貨当局がドル買い協調介入を柱とするドル防衛策で秘密合意していたことが明らかになった。ドル暴落で世界経済に大きな混乱が広がるのを回避するためで、為替市場の安定に向けた緊急共同声明も検討された。米ブッシュ政権はかねて介入に慎重姿勢を貫いてきたが、深刻なドル離れで方針転換を余儀なくされた格好だ。米国主導のドル防衛策は過去にほとんど例がない。米住宅公社の経営問題などでドル不安はなおくすぶっており、各国当局が再び連携を探る可能性がある。

　複数の国際金融筋によると、各国当局がドル防衛策の詰めの作業に入ったのは、米証券大手ベアー・スターンズの経営危機が表面化した3月中旬。金融システムの動揺が収まらず、世界的なドル安、株安に歯止めがきかなくなっていた。

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Siemens in talks with Gulf and Russian SWFs

By Daniel Schäfer in Frankfurt

Published: August 27 2008 23:04 | Last updated: August 27 2008 23:04

Siemens, Europe’s biggest engineering group, has held talks with sovereign wealth funds from the Gulf, Russia and other regions in an attempt to expand its long-term investor base.

Joe Kaeser, chief financial officer, said the German industrial conglomerate “would very much welcome an active involvement” by such funds. “We are very open to anyone who would want to join us as an investor,” he told the Financial Times.

The prospect of an SWF taking a large stake in a company as prominent as Siemens could prove politically contentious in Germany, where the growing influence of the funds has been heatedly debated.

Just last week, the cabinet adopted a bill that would allow the blocking of non-European investors trying to buy a stake of more than 25 per cent in a German company.

But such a deal could boost business opportunities in some of the world’s fastest-growing regions for Siemens. Its interest in such a move has increased since last month, when US rival General Electric announced a deal with Mubadala, Abu Dhabi’s increasingly powerful investment vehicle. Peter Löscher, Siemens’ chief executive and a former GE manager, was particularly struck by the deal.

Mr Kaeser said the GE agreement, under which Mubadala will buy a stake in GE and create an €8bn ($12bn) joint venture with the company’s finance arm in the Middle East, was admirable. “That has been a meaningful and smart move,” he said.

While Mr Kaeser declined to say exactly which funds Siemens was seeking a deal with, he said they included those from the Gulf and other regions such as Russia. Siemens is already co-operating with Alexey Mordashov, the Russian steel magnate, in a joint venture that builds power plant components.

Mr Kaeser, who has been talking to Gulf investors since he became chief financial officer in 2006, said: “Those regions have proven to be very efficient with their capital and that is something we in Siemens could benefit from.”

An investment in Siemens by an SWF would mark a cultural break at the German group, whose managers have long been wary of having a single, large shareholder.

The company’s share price has fallen by almost a third this year, and its lack of a large, anchor investor makes it more vulnerable to activist investors or rivals.

Any political reaction to an SWF deal with Siemens is likely to depend on the source of the investment.

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Rivals line up bids for Daewoo Shipbuilding

By Song Jung-a in Seoul

Published: August 28 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 28 2008 03:00

Hyundai Heavy Industries, Posco and two other South Korean conglomerates yesterday submitted bids to buy a controlling stake in Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering in a deal that could raise as much as $8bn.

State-run Korea Development Bank and Korea Asset Management Corp are selling their combined 50 per cent stake in the world's second-largest shipbuilder.

Yesterday, KDB said that as well as bids from Hyundai Heavy, the world's biggest shipbuilder, and steelmaker Posco, it had received letters of intent from GS Group, the country's eighth-largest conglomerate focused on energy and construction, and Hanwha.

The sale of Daewoo Shipbuilding initially drew interest from potential foreign investors, though they were largely excluded because of the Korean group's business in the defence industry.

A preferred bidder will be selected in early October.

Analysts said competition from cash-rich Hyundai Heavy and Posco, both seen as front-runners in the race to buy Daewoo Shipbuilding, could push the deal's price up to $7bn to $8bn.

Hyundai Heavy had Won8,800bn ($8.07bn) and Posco had Won6,100bn in cash and cash equivalent at the end of June.

Securing Daewoo Shipbuilding would allow Hyundai Heavy to streng-then its market leadership and add expertise in offshore drilling rigs.

But analysts warned that Hyundai Heavy could face difficulties in winning regulatory approval both in Korea and Europe, where it could face competition issues.

Posco, meanwhile, is keen to diversify its business portfolio as it lacks a growth driver.

An acquisition of Daewoo Shipbuilding would help the Korean steelmaker secure a strong buyer of its ship plates regardless of market conditions.

However, analysts questioned whether Posco could really create significant synergies from the deal.

GS Group is looking for synergies with its oil refining unit GS Caltex and its building arm GS Construction, while Hanwha, another leading conglomerate with businesses in chemicals, energy and finance, would benefit from Daewoo Shipbuilding's expertise in oil carriers.

The National Pension Service, Korea's state-run pension fund, has indicated that it might be willing to join a bid for Daewoo Shipbuilding and is understood to have spoken to some of the bidders.

Shares in Daewoo Shipbuilding ended up 1.87 per cent at Won35,350 yesterday.

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Russia could push China closer to the west

By Geoff Dyer

Published: August 27 2008 18:37 | Last updated: August 27 2008 18:37

August 8 has already been pencilled in by some as a turning point in modern history, the day that authoritarianism stood up as a credible force for the first time since the end of the cold war. Television producers did not know where to look. On one screen Chinese drummers were launching the hi-tech opening extravaganza of the Olympics, while on another Russian tanks were filing into Georgian territory.

Each event seemed to be a snub to the idea of the inevitable advance of liberal democracy – Russia with its re-discovered military muscle and China celebrating its mixture of dynamism and political control. Like so many big narratives, however, the story about the rise of the new authoritarians leaves out a lot of important detail. While Russia has spent the past decade becoming more authoritarian, China has been slowly moving in the opposite direction – even if it took a lurch backwards in the run-up to the Olympics.

The story also misses how the actions of one authoritarian regime might af­fect the attitudes of the other, which is very much the case with Russia’s in­cursion into Georgia. At the start of the conflict, China was probably not too unhappy. But with Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the at­titude is likely to shift. If Russia ramps up the pressure much further, it could actually push China closer to the US.

China has said little about the conflict, but a low-level confrontation in Georgia that pits Russia against the US helps China’s short-term interests rather well. China has been a backhand beneficiary of the “war on terror” – George W. Bush entered office nearly eight years ago promising to be much tougher on China, but since the attacks of September 11 2001, his attention has been elsewhere. Yet Beijing realises that the focus on Islamic extremism could soon wane. With the US economy slumping and China becoming the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, Chinese diplomats are worried that different groups in the US will join forces to slam China. So if Russia returns to being the US’s pin-up villain, that suits Beijing just fine.

Chinese leaders will not be losing any sleep about Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president, either. Beijing’s autocrats were deeply disturbed by the so-called “colour revolutions” in eastern Europe and central Asia this decade and launched a clampdown on non-governmental organisations working in China, fearing they could be agitating for political reform. Mr Saakashvili is the western-educated product of a colour revolution who is lauded by Washington neo-conservatives as a warrior in the battle for democracy. If he is toppled, Beijing will not mourn his departure.

There could be other strategic gains, too. Europe has long been eyeing more oil and gas deals with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, where China also has significant investments. If instability in the Caucasus scares off European investors, that could create more space for the Chinese. It also does not hurt China if Europe and the US find themselves bickering over how to address the new Russian threat.

But all these considerations are based on the assumption of a low-level stand-off that does not escalate. If Russia pursues its claims more aggressively, the calculations in Beijing will start to change.

China’s economic success is increasingly fuelled by huge imports of oil and gas that are only going to get larger. Beijing, therefore, does not want to see Russian aggression browbeat a region that is an important energy provider. Indeed, one reason China pushed for the creation of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation – a regional security body that holds its annual meeting today – was to find a way to balance Russian influence in central Asia.

The biggest problem for China, however, is Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Independence for small break-away provinces is one of the few subjects that turn Chinese diplomats from cool-headed calculators of national self-interest into brittle ideologues. As the March turmoil in Tibet showed, China views questions of regional autonomy as a direct threat to the state. A surprising amount of Chinese time and energy still goes on trying to isolate the government of Taiwan while Chinese diplomats work overtime to denounce groups that promote cultural and political issues in Xinjiang, even if they have no connection whatsoever with terrorism. When Russia was battling to oppose independence for Kosovo, China was firmly on its side.

At the moment, Beijing can afford to keep a low profile, safe in the knowledge that the US will veto recognition of the two regions if it ever comes to the UN Security Council. But the last thing China wants is an escalated conflict, let alone a new cold war, that forces it to take sides.

In the early 1960s, a swathe of western analysts missed the Sino-Soviet split because they confused a shared belief in Marxism-Leninism for a lock-step partnership. Just because the two countries are now pursuing forms of authoritarian capitalism does not mean they are automatic bedfellows. China has moved closer to Russia in recent years, but there are clear limits to the alliance that Washington could exploit.

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商品先物、米と投機監視で連携　経産省

　経済産業省は、原油や穀物価格の高騰の一因となっている商品先物市場への投機資金流入に対する国際的な監視を強化するため、米商品先物取引委員会（ＣＦＴＣ）との連携を強める。9月にもＣＦＴＣと覚書をかわし、価格操作など不公正取引を防止を目指した情報共有を進める方針だ。政府・与党が月内に策定する総合経済対策にも盛り込まれる見通しだ。

　商品先物市場に流入する投機資金の監視強化では、7月の主要国首脳会議（洞爺湖サミット）で国際間の連携を強めて市場の透明性を向上することで合意していた。

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政府経済対策、中小支援に4000億円　資金繰り円滑化

　政府が29日にまとめる総合経済対策の概要が明らかになった。中小企業の資金繰り支援へ向け4000億円を拠出、一部を2008年度補正予算に計上する。10月に予定する輸入小麦の値上げ幅の圧縮なども盛り込む。全体の事業規模は政府・与党でさらに調整するが、11年度に国・地方の基礎的財政収支を黒字化する目標は堅持する見込みだ。

　資金繰り支援では、各地の信用保証協会による公的信用保証の充実が柱。政府は中小企業金融公庫が同協会に保険金を支払うための準備金を積み増す。協会の保証余力が膨らみ、「貸倒率が5％とすると、（金融機関はさらに）8兆円貸せる」（伊吹文明財務相）。

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７月の建機出荷額、6.8％増　外需好調も国内は不振

　日本建設機械工業会（木川理二郎会長）が28日発表した7月の建設機械出荷額は、前年同月比6.8％増の2334億円だった。新興国向けの出荷が伸び、2カ月ぶりに前年実績を上回った。ただ国内では低迷が続いている。

　輸出は13.2％増の1671億円で、アジアのインフラ整備や資源開発向けが旺盛だった。出荷の約4割を占める油圧ショベルが14.4％増の679億円となったほか、建設用クレーンが24.3％増、トラクターも17.9％増えた。

　国内向けは6.7％減の662億円だった。建設不況の影響で4カ月連続で前年割れが続いている。油圧ショベルが11.5％減の231億円となるなど、同工業会の区分で10機種のうち4機種が2けたのマイナスとなった。

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トヨタ、09年世界販売970万台と発表　次世代電気自動車量産へ

　トヨタ自動車は28日に経営説明会を開き、2009年の世界販売計画（ダイハツ工業、日野自動車を含む）を当初の1040万台から970万台程度に下方修正すると発表した。主力の日米欧市場での販売不振が要因。トヨタは今後、日米欧市場のテコ入れや新興国市場の開拓に力を入れるとともに、世界的に需要が拡大している環境対応車を強化。次世代電気自動車を10年代の早い段階で量産化する方針も明らかにした。

　09年計画は08年計画（950万台）より20万台程度の上積みとなる。ただ、ここ数年に比べて成長スピードは鈍化し、1000万台突破は10年以降に先送りとなる。

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三菱商事と三菱ＵＦＪリース、トルコで自動車リース

　三菱商事と三菱ＵＦＪリースはトルコで自動車リース事業に参入する。現地の最大手企業、エキム・トリズム社（イスタンブール市）に2社合わせて45％を出資し、経営にも関与する。日本企業がトルコでリース事業を手掛けるのは初めて。トルコは約7400万人の人口を抱え、今後、自動車市場の拡大の余地が大きいと判断した。地理的に近い東欧市場への足掛かりにもする。

　資本参加先のエキム社は約2万1000台のリース用車を保有し、トルコで2割近いシェアを持つ。10月にも三菱商事が25％、三菱ＵＦＪリースが20％を出資する計画。創業者が持つ株の一部や投資ファンドや欧州の公的金融機関の保有株を買い取る。株式取得額は明らかにしていないが、2社合計で100億円程度とみられる。

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電動自転車、ガソリン高で人気　ヤマハ発対三洋電機・新製品バトル

　モーターで走行を補助する電動自転車が売れている。主婦やお年寄りに加えて、ガソリン高を背景に自動車から乗り換える人もいる。売り上げは一時落ち込んだが、最近は小型軽量化で利便性が高まり、人気は再上昇している。（詳細は28日付の日本経済新聞朝刊新製品面に掲載）

　三洋電機の「エナクル　ＣＹ―ＳＰＡ26Ｄ」は坂道を下るときやブレーキをかけたとき、前輪ハブのモーターが発電機に切り替わり、リチウムイオン電池に継ぎ足し充電して走行距離を伸ばす「回生充電」技術を採用している。ヤマハ発動機は子育て中の主婦を中心にファンを持つ。「ＰＡＳリチウム　ＰＺ26ＬＳ」は電池容量と寿命を延ばし、アシストの発進、加速、走行を滑らかにした。

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明治乳業、流動食の生産能力３倍に　医療・介護向け拡充

　明治乳業は群馬工場（伊勢崎市）の敷地内に新設した流動食専用工場を稼働させた。今後、流動食の品目数を拡充し、全社での生産能力をこれまでの3倍に引き上げる。高齢化の進展で医療・介護施設を中心とした流動食の市場は年々拡大している。同社では流動食事業を成長分野と位置づけ、積極的な投資で需要を取り込む。

　新工場の敷地面積は2万6800平方メートル。鉄骨3階建てで延べ床面積は約1万4000平方メートルとなる。工場にはパック詰め流動食と、無菌充てんした紙容器の流動食の生産ラインをそれぞれ3ライン設置した。26日に全6ラインの稼働体制が整い、一部ラインではすでに製造を始めた。用地代を除く投資額は85億円。

　既存の群馬工場では200品目以上のアイスクリームや紙容器の飲料のほか、11品目の流動食を製造している。同社では新工場の稼働を足掛かりに流動食の品目数を増やす計画。外部委託で生産している品目も含め20品目程度まで拡充し、全社べースでの年間生産能力を4万キロリットルまで高める予定だ。

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アフガン邦人死亡　官房長官「テロとの戦い、関与に理解を」

　町村信孝官房長官は28日午前の記者会見で、アフガニスタン東部での非政府組織（ＮＧＯ）「ペシャワール会」の伊藤和也さん殺害事件について「尊い犠牲が出てしまったが、そうであればあるほどテロとの戦いに引き続き関与していくことの重要性を日本の国民のみなさんは感じたのではないか」と語った。

　インド洋での給油活動を延長する法案を臨時国会に提出する方針にも言及し「与野党の合意があれば法案を修正することは否定しないどころか歓迎する」と強調した。

　高村正彦外相も同日午前の自民党の外交関係の合同会議で、伊藤さんの殺害事件について「犯人に強い憤りを感じる。ご冥福をお祈りし、哀悼の意を表したい」と語った。

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米欧対ロシア、グルジア巡り対立　日本「立ち位置」難題

　グルジア紛争を巡る米欧とロシアの対立が日本外交にも難しいかじ取りを迫り始めた。主要8カ国（Ｇ８）は例年、9月下旬の国連総会中に外相会合を開いているが、今年は日本が議長国としてグルジア問題などの議論を仕切らなければならない。一方、今年後半はロシア要人が相次いで来日する方向で、日本は米欧ロの力学をにらんだ外交力が試される。

　国連総会に合わせて開催するＧ８外相会合は例年、その年の主要国首脳会議（サミット）の開催国が議長を務める。この慣例に従って、日本は9月27日ごろ開催する日程を各国に打診しつつある。同会合では「グルジア問題は主要議題であり、取り上げないわけにはいかない」（外務省幹部）。

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海洋機構、「北がＮ極」詳細に分析　磁場生成の解明期待

　海洋研究開発機構は磁石の針のＮ極が常に北を指す「地球磁場」の仕組みについて、スーパーコンピューター「地球シミュレータ」を使い詳しく分析することに成功した。地球内部の物質の動きをこれまでの10倍の精度で解析した。28日付の英科学誌ネイチャーに掲載された。

　地球の中心部であるコア（核）は高温・高圧で鉄が溶けて液状になっている。地球シミュレータでコア内部の様子を模擬実験したところ、液体が地球内部から地表方向に流れ、また内側に戻っていく動きをしていることが分かった。

　熱で起きた対流現象に従い、磁場が地球内部からまっすぐに伸びていることが判明した。今後、より詳細な磁場生成の仕組みの解明につなげる。

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北極の海氷面積、史上２番目に小さく　米研究機関

　【ワシントン＝共同】米氷雪データセンター（コロラド州）は27日、北極の海氷面積が約526万平方キロと、観測史上2番目に小さくなり、最小値を記録した昨年レベルに近づいていると発表した。同センターは「北極の夏の海氷面積が急速に縮小している過去10年の傾向が今年も続いている」と指摘している。

　米航空宇宙局（ＮＡＳＡ）の衛星データなどを解析した同センターによると、今年の夏は特に、アラスカ北方沖とロシア東部の東シベリア海で海氷の縮小が進行。26日時点で、これまで史上2番目の小ささだった2005年9月の532万平方キロを下回った。

　北極の海氷は例年、9月中旬に最小となるため、今年の縮小はまだ続くとみられる。観測史上最小は昨年9月16日の413万平方キロという。

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村上被告側に追徴課税、ファンド収益で数十億円　東京国税局

　ニッポン放送株のインサイダー取引事件で証券取引法違反罪に問われ、公判中の村上ファンド元代表、村上世彰被告（49）と、同被告側が出資や管理をする複数の法人が東京国税局の税務調査を受け、総額数十億円の追徴課税処分を受けていたことが27日、分かった。ニッポン放送株の売却などファンドの運用で得た利益を巡り申告漏れを指摘されたとみられる。

　関係者によると、同国税局は、村上被告や関連法人が投資していたファンドからの配当などに着目。税法上は村上被告の個人所得とすべき一部が、法人所得として処理されていたなどと指摘し、申告所得が過少と判断したもようだ。

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北朝鮮の女スパイ、脱北者装い機密を入手　韓国で起訴

　脱北者を装って韓国でスパイ活動をしたとして、韓国の検察当局などは27日、北朝鮮工作員の女（34）らを国家保安法違反の罪で起訴したと発表した。女は軍将校と関係を持ち軍事機密を入手。日本にも3回入国し、日本人男性3人と見合いをしたという。

　脱北者を偽装した北朝鮮工作員が韓国で摘発されたのは初めて。聯合ニュースは、第1次世界大戦当時にヨーロッパで活動した女スパイ事件を連想させるとして「韓国版マタハリ事件」と報じた。

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女スパイ：脱北者装い活動　愛人の韓国大尉とともに起訴
起訴された女スパイ＝ロイター
起訴された女スパイ＝ロイター

　【ソウル中島哲夫】脱北者を装って韓国に亡命し、複数の軍人に近づいて得た情報などを北朝鮮に送っていた国家安全保衛部所属の女スパイ（３４）が摘発され、愛人関係にあった韓国陸軍大尉（２７）とともに２７日、起訴された。検察、警察、軍情報機関、国家情報院の合同捜査本部の発表を聯合ニュースが伝えた。

　この女スパイはウォン・ジョンファ容疑者。偽装交際するうち本気で愛してしまった大尉を誘い、一緒に北朝鮮に渡るのを目標に、まず日本の永住権を得るため訪日し日本人男性と３回見合いしたという。愛人がスパイと知った大尉から自首を勧められ、迷っているうちに、３年前から内偵していた捜査当局に２人とも逮捕された。

　同ニュースによると、ウォン容疑者は１５歳の時、工作員を養成する特殊部隊に配属されたが３年後に負傷し除隊。しかし再び工作員の道に引き込まれ、中国での脱北者送還・韓国人拉致、韓国人との同居、出産、中国朝鮮族男性との結婚など複雑な過程を経て、０１年に脱北者を装って韓国入りした。

　脱北者収容施設での教育の後、韓国軍部隊を回って北朝鮮に関する講演を五十数回も行い、愛人となった大尉のほか少佐など数人とも交際していた。

　ウォン容疑者は北朝鮮側から毒薬、毒針を受け取り、韓国情報要員の殺害指令を受けたが、知り合った相手を殺せなかったと自供。９７年に亡命した黄長ヨプ（ファンジャンヨプ）元朝鮮労働党書記の所在確認にも失敗した。重要情報を握って日本に渡った脱北女性の追跡も指示されていたという。

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“韓国版マタ・ハリ”北女スパイの手口とは？

脱北者装い暗躍、身元保証のため偽装結婚も

　韓国の警察や軍などの合同捜査本部は２７日、脱北者を装った女スパイを摘発した。国家保安法違反の罪で起訴されたのは、北朝鮮の女性工作員、元正花（ウォン・ジョンファ）被告（３４）。同被告は陸軍大尉（２６）から色仕掛けで手に入れた軍の機密情報を北にメールで送ったり、身元保証のために警察官と偽装結婚するなど暗躍していた。日本国内の脱北者の動向を探るために来日し、日本人男性と見合いもしていた。脱北者によるスパイ活動は以前から指摘されていたが、実際に摘発されたのは今回が初めて。

　北朝鮮Ｎｏ．２の金永南（キム・ヨンナム）最高人民議会常任委員長の親戚筋でもあるウォン被告は、１９９７年に韓国に亡命した黄長燁（ファン・ジャンヨプ）元朝鮮労働党書記の居場所を突き止めるという任務を担っていた。

　捜査本部によると、ウォン被告は８９年から９２年まで北朝鮮で特殊部隊の「南派工作訓練」を受け、９９年から北朝鮮の国家安全保衛部の工作員となった。２００１年までの間に中国吉林省で１００人以上の脱北者送還や韓国人事業家らの拉致に関与していた。

　０１年に韓国に入国したウォン被告は、韓国の陸軍大尉ら４人の軍将校らと性的関係を持つなどして近づき、軍の機密情報を入手する一方、中国の朝鮮族になりすまして韓国人警察官と結婚。「自分は脱北者である」と韓国情報院に申し出ると男性とはその後、離婚した。

　ウォン被告は、偽装脱北と偽装結婚で手に入れた身分を駆使し、軍部施設を撮影した写真や軍事地図、武器情報、軍関連の書類などの機密情報を手に入れては中国に渡り、中国にいる北朝鮮保衛局幹部に渡していた。０４年には韓国情報要員２人の暗殺命令を受け、毒針を渡されたが未遂に終わっている。

　ウォン被告は昨年から３回来日し、結婚情報関連の業者などを利用して脱北者の動向を探っていた。昨年２回、今年５月から７月までは仙台市などに滞在。日本人男性と３回見合いしたウォン被告は「日本の永住権を取り、陸軍大尉を来日させるつもりだった。大尉を朝鮮総連に加入させ、北朝鮮に送り込むつもりだった」と供述している。

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ＮＨＫ：日本国際放送は来年２月に開始－－概要発表

　ＮＨＫは２７日、海外在住の外国人向けのテレビ国際放送の運営会社「日本国際放送」の概要を発表した。放送開始は来年２月ですべて英語。社長には元ＮＨＫ解説委員長で外務省参与を務めた高島肇久氏が９月１日付で就任する。

　現在、同社はＮＨＫが２億円を出資する１００％子会社だが、１０月中旬に民間企業から１億９０００万円の第三者割当増資を実施する。同社によるとテレビ東京を除く民放キー局４社が出資を検討しているという。テレビ国際放送はこれまで２種類あったが今年４月の放送法改正で「外国人向け」「邦人向け」と位置づけ、前者をＮＨＫ本体から分離することになった。

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カタール航空：成田空港に新規乗り入れ

　国土交通省は２７日、国営カタール航空の成田空港への新規乗り入れと関西空港への乗り入れ枠拡充で、カタール航空当局と合意したと発表した。ペルシャ湾岸諸国で成田への乗り入れが決まったのは初めて。１０年に平行滑走路延伸工事が完了した後、カタール航空が週７往復運航する見通しだ。

　関空とカタールを結ぶ路線は、旅客便が現行から倍増の週１４往復になり、貨物便が新たに週７往復まで運航可能となる。日本国内路線の共同運航も自由化され、大幅な路線縮小で苦境に立つ関空の需要拡大につながると期待される。日本の航空会社も両国間の旅客便で１４往復、貨物便は７往復まで運航できる。成田空港の平行滑走路が完成した後は旅客便の枠が７往復増える。

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ConocoPhillips selling U.S. gas stations
Reuters
By Anna Driver Reuters - Wednesday, August 27 05:41 pm

HOUSTON (Reuters) - ConocoPhillips on Wednesday said it is selling 600 company-owned U.S. gasoline stations to PetroSun West LLC for $800 million (437 million pounds), completing the oil major's exit from the low-margin, highly competitive retail business.
(Advertisement)

ConocoPhillips, which operates the Phillips 66, Conoco and 76 brands in the western and central United States, is the latest big oil company to sell its service stations.

"Tying up capital in a retail gas station is not its most efficient use," Phil Weiss, energy analyst at Argus Research Co, said. "The margins on the product side aren't that high. You can be getting only pennies a gallon."

Service stations have struggled with shrinking margins even as gasoline prices topped $4 per gallon because they have not been able to keep pace with soaring crude oil prices.

In June, Exxon Mobil announced it planned to leave the retail gasoline business by selling the remaining 2,220 stations it owns. BP is also selling its U.S. retail business.

Privately held PetroSun, the largest independent gasoline and convenience store operator on the U.S. West Coast, said the deal will leave it with operations in 10 states and annual petroleum sales of more than 1 billion gallons.

The service stations will still carry one of ConocoPhillips' brand names, a ConocoPhillips spokeswoman said.

Conoco, the third-largest U.S. oil company and second-largest refiner, will continue to produce gasoline and sell fuel on a wholesale basis to stations.

Shares of Houston-based ConocoPhillips rose 1.5 percent or $1.20 to $83.58 in midday trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

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池袋活性化へ「東京中華街」構想　地元商店会に反発も（1/2ページ）

2008年8月28日14時14分

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写真池袋駅周辺の繁華街で清掃活動をする東京中華街促進会のメンバーら＝東京都豊島区

図

　約２００軒の中国系店舗が集まる東京・池袋駅一帯を、「東京中華街」として売り出す構想が中国人経営者の間で進められている。ホームページやイベントでＰＲ。「池袋の集客増加につなげたい」と意気込むが、長年街おこしを進めてきた地元商店街は「中華街とひとくくりにする考えは一方的」と反発している。

　北京五輪が開幕した８日、「東京中華街促進会」という商店組合が池袋に誕生した。その夜、飲食店や物販店など加盟する約５０店舗の中国人経営者らが駅東口の中華料理店に集まり、会の発足と五輪開催を祝った。

　東京中華街の構想によると、池袋駅周辺半径５００メートルに点在する約２００軒の中国関連商業施設を組織化し、「トウキョウチャイナタウン池袋」の統一ブランドで、新しい観光スポットとして池袋をＰＲするとしている。

　ホームページを作るほか、中国の旧正月・春節などにあわせた祭りの開催、料理や中国語、太極拳などの講座も企画するという。

　今年１月、中華街準備委員会からの面会を受けた池袋西口商店街連合会の三宅満会長（６３）らは、突然の中華街構想の表明に、面食らった。

　連合会は、４０年前から毎秋に駅前で「ふくろ祭り」を開くなど、積極的に街おこしをしてきた。昨年の祭りには約１２０万人が訪れた。違法な客引きを監視するため月２回、パトロールもし、買い物客らが通いやすい街づくりを進めてきた。

　中国系店舗は地元町会に加盟する店がほとんどなく、街灯の電気代など共用設備の費用も負担してこなかったという。数年前までは、ゴミの出し方などで苦情も寄せられていた。「安心して楽しめる街を、と長年努力してきた地元の頭ごなしに、一方的に池袋を中華街と呼ぶ考えには賛同できない」と中華街構想に再検討を求めてきた。

　三宅会長は「新しい組合を作るよりも、まず地元町会に加盟し、活動に参加することが先ではないか」と話す。

　一方で、「中華街として知名度が上がれば、池袋全体の底上げにつながる」と期待を寄せる商店主もいる。池袋―新宿―渋谷を結ぶ地下鉄副都心線が６月に開通し、池袋周辺の人が渋谷や新宿に流れてしまうのでは、との不安があるためだ。

　「東京中華街」のメンバーは、５月から自主的に池袋駅周辺の清掃を始めた。２０年前来日し、池袋で日本語を学んだ元広告会社員の胡逸飛理事長（４６）は「地元商店組合との交流の窓口となり、中国系店舗が日本の商習慣に従いながら一緒に池袋を盛り上げたい」と理解を求めている

■「新華僑」増える

　華僑研究が専門の筑波大の山下清海教授によると、池袋に「新華僑」と呼ばれる中国人が増えたのは、中国が開放路線に転換し、海外留学が緩和された７８年以降という。家賃２万円程度の安いアパートが多い豊島区に住む人が増え、池袋駅一帯に日本語学校が急増した。

　さらに、バブル経済が崩壊した９１年以降、賃料が下がった池袋駅北口一帯のビルの上階や地下に、中国系の飲食店が入り始め、書店や旅行会社など在留中国人向けのサービス業も増加した。

　現在、池袋駅北口を出ると、雑居ビルなどに中国語の看板が並ぶ。０３年から、この一帯を「池袋チャイナタウン」と呼んでいる山下教授は「池袋はいまや、新華僑の情報集積基地だ」と言っている。

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民主の渡辺秀・大江・姫井３氏、離党届を提出

　民主党の渡辺秀央参院議員（元郵政相）は２８日、民主党を離党し、新党「改革クラブ」を結成する意向を表明した。

　渡辺氏によると、ほかに民主党の大江康弘、姫井由美子両参院議員と、無所属の荒井広幸、松下新平両参院議員が参加し、計５人となる。渡辺、大江、姫井３氏は２８日、民主党に離党届を提出した。２９日午後に記者会見して新党結成を正式表明する予定だ。無投票３選が確実となっている小沢代表への反発を理由に挙げており、党には大きな打撃となる。与野党が逆転している参院では、議席数の差が縮まることになる。

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上海に「世界一」金融ビル完成、１０１階建て４９２ｍ
中国・上海に完成した１０１階建ての「上海環球金融中心」（左）＝小野田徹史撮影

　【上海＝小野田徹史】中国・上海で森ビルが建設していた１０１階建ての超高層ビル「上海環球金融中心」が完成し、２８日、内部が報道陣に公開された。

　アンテナなどを含めない軒高は４９２メートルで、完成した建築物としては台湾の「台北１０１」を抜いて世界一の高さという。３０日には、９７～１００階に設けた「世界一高い展望台」の一般公開が始まる。

　中国政府は上海をアジアの金融センターとしたい考えで、新ビルをランドマークに周辺の開発を進めている。新ビルでは三井住友銀行の上海支店が業務を始めたほか、欧米系銀行や中東の不動産会社などが入居する予定だ。

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17:33 GMT, Wednesday, 27 August 2008 18:33 UK
Gaddafi charged for cleric kidnap
Musr Sadr

Lebanon has indicted Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi over the disappearance of a prominent Shia Muslim cleric during a visit to Libya 30 years ago.

It is widely believed in Lebanon that Sheikh Moussa Sadr, who was revered locally, was kidnapped and killed on the orders of senior Libyan officials.

Libya has always denied involvement and says the sheikh left the country safely on a plane bound for Rome.

Col Gaddafi is accused of conspiring to kidnap and false imprisonment.

The charges carry the death penalty, but correspondents say it is highly unlikely that Col Gaddafi will ever stand trial in Lebanon.

Revered figure

Col Gaddafi has ignored a previous Lebanese summons for questioning about the case and he has never officially visited Lebanon since the cleric's disappearance.

Sheikh Moussa Sadr and two aides were visiting Libya in 1978 when they mysteriously disappeared.

Born in Iran in 1929, he had emigrated to Lebanon, where he remains a revered figure among the country's large Shia minority.

He founded Lebanon's opposition Amal movement, which is now led by parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri.

A charismatic speaker and religious scholar, the sheikh is credited with helping transform the Lebanese Shia into the major political force they are today.

Wednesday's arrest warrant was issued under a Lebanese law which allows for the indictment of any suspect who fails to respond to a summons for questioning.

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Best Farm Economy Since 1970s Comes With Expense Risk (Update1)

By Alan Bjerga
Enlarge Image/Details

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. agricultural income is the highest in three decades after corn and soybeans rose to records. The risk for farmers is that costs are rising even faster, increasing concern of a profit squeeze.

A U.S. Department of Agriculture report tomorrow may show costs are accelerating as revenue growth slows, similar to a pattern that led to a 1980s farm crisis that was the worst since the Great Depression, said Gary Schnitkey, a University of Illinois farm economist. Corn, wheat and soybean prices are all at least 18 percent below their peaks.

Fertilizer costs doubled from a year ago, while fuel increased 62 percent, USDA data show. Expenses probably will surpass the $279.2 billion that the USDA estimated in February, eroding net income the government pegged at a record $92.3 billion for 2008, farmers and economists said.

``Income peaked this year,'' said Kurt Line, who owns or manages more than 6,800 acres of farmland near Momence, Illinois. ``We should see a significant drop in 2009. For the number of dollars we will be risking the next two years, profit margins are not going to be robust.''

Total farm income, a broad measure of revenue, rents, government aid and other benefits from agricultural operations, will be $371.5 billion this year, according to USDA estimates in February that will be revised in tomorrow's report. Adjusted for inflation, the figure is the highest since 1979. The USDA's first forecast of 2009 farm income will be made in November.

Sputtering Prices

While income is up from last year, the price rally that began in 2006 for the nation's biggest crops has sputtered since late June and early July, on signs that Midwest flooding may have caused less damage to corn and soybean plants than analysts had predicted.

Corn, the most-valuable U.S. crop at a record $52.1 billion last year, dropped 26 percent from its June 27 peak of $7.9925 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soybeans, after jumping 78 percent in 2007, plunged 18 percent from a high of $16.3675 a bushel on July 3. Wheat, up 77 percent in 2007, slumped 37 percent from its record $13.4925 a bushel March 12.

Growers will probably spend one-third more to plant their fields next year, Schnitkey estimated.

Fertilizer, the second-biggest expense for corn and soybean farmers after land, is tied to spiraling energy costs, said Bob Young, chief economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation.

``It will take $5 corn next year just to break even,'' said Young, who represents the largest U.S. farmer group. ``People think they're standing at the edge of a chasm.''

Corn, Farm Equipment

Corn futures for December delivery closed at $5.94 a bushel on Aug. 26 on the CBOT, and the price of grain for delivery a year later fetched $6.31.

The lower price outlook may trim funds available for purchasing new farm equipment, threatening a two-year jump in sales for agricultural manufacturers, Young said.

Moline, Illinois-based Deere, the largest U.S. maker of farm equipment, said Aug. 13 agricultural sales in the U.S. and Canada will rise up to 25 percent this year. No. 2 supplier Agco Corp., based in Duluth, Georgia, said July 29 that second- quarter North American machinery sales increased 36 percent.

Deere said it will raise prices for large, wheeled tractors by as much as 7 percent and combines by as much as 10.5 percent next year to cover rising materials costs. Spokesman Kenneth Golden declined to comment further.

Diesel fuel is up 46 percent in the past year at $4.283 a gallon on Aug. 25, according to the American Automobile Association.

Decade of Woe

Ammonium used as fertilizer sold out at $750 a ton for the rest of this year is now being sold at $1,000 a ton next year, said John Lipinski, chief executive officer of CVR Energy Inc., an oil refiner and fertilizer company based in Sugar Land, Texas, during a conference call with investors Aug. 13.

Falling crop prices coupled with higher costs would create a situation similar to 1980, when expenses fell 1 percent while income fell 9.2 percent, Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer said Aug. 6. Adjusted for inflation, farm profits fell 46 percent, beginning a decade in which annual agricultural net income averaged less than half what it was in the previous 10 years, according to USDA data.

``We don't want to get into a situation in which farmers are squeezed,'' Schafer said.

Less Debt

What may help this time around is that many farmers have less debt than they did three decades ago, the American Farm Bureau's Young said.

Farmer debt-to-equity and debt-to-asset ratios are both at their lowest levels since statistics began being kept in 1960, although the data doesn't adequately reflect the finances of farmers who rent land, Young said.

For Line, the 34-year-old Illinois grower, the possible decline of the farm boom means tougher times may lie ahead.

``2008 is going to be a windfall profit if you bought your inputs ahead and made some forward sales to lock in high prices,'' Line said. ``2009 should be back into fair profits with the cost surge, and if commodities prices stay high. But 2010 will be the year of survival.''