Nato tells Russia: no ‘new line’ in Europe

Nato tells Russia: no ‘new line’ in Europe

By John Thornhill and Stanley Pignal in Brussels

Published: August 19 2008 19:19 | Last updated: August 19 2008 20:41

Nato warned Russia on Tuesday that it could not draw a “new line” in Europe preventing Georgia and other countries from joining the western military alliance if they wished to do so.

Meeting in emergency session in Brussels, the western military alliance’s 26 foreign ministers also suspended regular top-level ties with Russia, saying that “business as usual” could not continue while Russian troops remained in Georgia.

Expressing their strong support for Georgia’s independence in one of the most serious disputes between the west and Russia since the end of the cold war, Nato members agreed to establish a permanent commission with the embattled Caucasian country, which is desperate to join the western alliance.

Nato is also sending 15 civil emergency experts to Georgia to ease conditions for an estimated 150,000 refugees.

Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, insisted that Moscow could not divide those countries that had already entered Nato from those that still aspired to do so.

“There will absolutely be no new line. Nato does not accept that there is a new line, and we are acting as if there is no new line,” she said, evoking the Iron Curtain that divided Nato from the Soviet bloc during the cold war.

“Nato intends to support the territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty of Georgia and to support its democratically-elected government, and to deny Russia the strategic objective of undermining that democracy and making Georgia weaker,” she said.

Earlier, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Nato’s secretary-general, called on Moscow to withdraw all its military forces in Georgia to the positions they occupied on August 6, the day before the military confrontation erupted.

A Nato statement added that Russian military action had been “disproportionate and inconsistent with its peacekeeping role” in parts of Georgia.

Russia began withdrawing military units from parts of Georgia on Tuesday in accordance with a six-point ceasefire agreement brokered by the European Union. However, Russian officials reacted furiously to Nato’s criticisms and its declaration of support for Georgia’s eventual membership.

Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s representative to Nato, said that the west was hypocritical in condemning Moscow for its aggression while supporting Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s president. Mr Rogozin condemned Mr Saakashvili as a “war criminal” who had bombarded civilians and Russian soldiers in South Ossetia, provoking Moscow’s intervention.

Mr Rogozin added that if Nato had already accepted Georgia as a full member, then the western alliance and Russia would now be at war.

“Are you ready to risk your prosperity and risk your lives and the lives of your children for the sake of Saakashvili?” Mr Rogozin asked correspondents in Brussels.

Ms Rice said the US – and Nato – had no desire to isolate Russia. But she added that Russia’s incursion into Georgia and the bombing of civilian targets was isolating Russia from the world. “There can be no business as usual with Russia while this kind of activity goes on,” she said.

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UK tries to offload Typhoon fighters

By Stephen Fidler, Sylvia Pfeifer and Alex Barker

Published: August 19 2008 23:31 | Last updated: August 19 2008 23:40

Talks have been held with countries including Japan about offloading large numbers of Eurofighter Typhoons that the British Ministry of Defence has ordered but can no longer afford.

The talks, which officials say are at an early stage, underline the scale of the cash crisis facing the MoD as it grapples with an estimated budget deficit of £2bn.

The Royal Air Force, which had ordered 144 Eurofighters in two earlier contracts, is committed to buying another 88 as part of its membership of the Eurofighter consortium with Germany, Italy and Spain.

Severe financial penalties would be incurred for cancelling or cutting this number and the UK is sounding out potential buyers for all or part of its order.

Defence officials have confirmed that Japan, Saudi Arabia and India are among countries that have expressed interest.

Japan’s interest will surprise many in the industry as it has tended in the past to buy more aircraft from US manufacturers.

India, which has in the past bought Russian fighters, has made no secret of its ambition to expand its indigenous defence capabilities and is evaluating bids from five groups, including Eurofighter, for a new multi-role combat aircraft.

India’s tender could be a lucrative order for the consortium. In order to divert aircraft intended for the RAF to India, the UK would need approval from its consortium partners. The transfer of sensitive military technology is likely to be another potential hurdle.

The Saudi Royal Air Force has 72 Typhoons on order from the UK under an agreement signed last September, to be built by BAE Systems, the arms contractor. Separately, Riyadh has begun talks with London to buy between 48 and 72 additional Typhoons, a source close to the Saudi government confirmed.

The initial BAE order, known as Project Salam, was worth £4.3bn for the aircraft, with the contract value likely to rise to £20bn once support and maintenance are included.

Any agreement on offloading the RAF Eurofighters is unlikely to be reached until next year.

The MoD said: “We would not comment on government-to-government discussions, even to confirm that such discussions are taking place.”

The sounding of potential buyers comes as the four partner nations in the consortium remain locked in difficult negotiations over whether each must buy the same number of aircraft from the group as agreed originally.

Both the UK and Italy asked late last year what it would cost to buy fewer aircraft than agreed initially or none at all, but both options were regarded as unworkable because they would incur such a high financial penalty.

The Eurofighter contract, designed to discourage countries such as Germany from cutting back orders, is written so tightly that it would be almost as cheap to take delivery of the aircraft as to incur the penalties.

Ministry under fire: recent FT headlines

January
‘MPs warn on military stretch’ – army unable to take on fresh operations because of Iraq and Afghanistan

‘MoD may delay aircraft carrier contract’ – ministry struggles to meet Treasury demands for swingeing cuts

March
‘Military spending plans under fire’ – annual cost of Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns to double to more than £3bn this year
April
‘MoD fast-tracks procurement to aid war effort’ – drive to get new equipment to the frontline


May ‘Compensation blow to MoD’ – sending soldiers into battle with defective gear may breach human rights


June
‘Army overhaul to fight budget crisis’ – review by general staff considers cuts in battle tanks and heavy artillery pieces ‘Cuts sink navy plans for two more destroyers’ – cost-cutting sees end to plans for two extra Type 45 destroyers worth £1.4bn


July
‘MoD awards 10 tortured Iraqis nearly £3m damages’ – payout and apology follow long legal battle

‘Military unable to meet objectives’ – MoD says 60 per cent of the military report serious obstacles to rapid deployment on new missions

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Ex-IMF economist says worst is yet to come

SINGAPORE, Aug 19 – The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world’s biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.

”The U.S. is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say ’the worst is to come’,” he told a financial conference.

”We’re not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we’re going to see a whopper, we’re going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks,” said Rogoff, who is an economics professor at Harvard University and was the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist from 2001 to 2004.

”We have to see more consolidation in the financial sector before this is over,” he said, when asked for early signs of an end to the crisis.

”Probably Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- despite what U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said -- these giant mortgage guarantee agencies are not going to exist in their present form in a few years.”

Rogoff’s comments come as investors dumped shares of the largest U.S. home funding companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Monday after a newspaper report said government officials may have no choice but to effectively nationalise the U.S. housing finance titans.

A government move to recapitalise the two companies by injecting funds could wipe out existing common stock holders, the weekend Barron’s story said. Preferred shareholders and even holders of the two government-sponsored entities’ $19 billion of subordinated debt would also suffer losses.

Rogoff said multi-billion dollar investments by sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the Middle East in western financial firms may not necessarily result in large profits because they had not taken into account the broader market conditions that the industry faces.

”There was this view early on in the crisis that sovereign wealth funds could save everybody. Investment banks did something stupid, they lost money in the sub-prime, they’re great buys, sovereign wealth funds come in and make a lot of money by buying them.

”That view neglects the point that the financial system has become very bloated in size and needed to shrink,” Rogoff told the conference in Singapore, whose wealth funds GIC and Temasek have invested billions in Merrill Lynch and Citigroup

In response to the sharp U.S. housing retrenchment and turmoil in credit markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by a cumulative 3.25 percentage points to 2 percent since mid-September.

Rogoff said the U.S. Federal Reserve was wrong to cut interest rates as ”dramatically” as it did.

”Cutting interest rates is going to lead to a lot of inflation in the next few years in the United States.”

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Caracas gets tough over Cemex assets

By Benedict Mander

Published: August 19 2008 22:23 | Last updated: August 19 2008 22:23

Venezuela has expropriated the local assets of Mexico’s Cemex after failing to agree about compensation, as President Hugo Chávez continues to take control of “strategic” sectors of the economy.

Mr Chávez unexpectedly announced the nationalisation of the cement industry in April, although France’s Lafarge and Switzerland’s Holcim managed to reach agreement about compensation by Monday’s deadline.

Mr Chávez argued the takeovers were necessary to solve serious housing shortages and to boost state infrastructure projects. He described the nationalisation as one of many “steps toward socialism,” which also included taking over telecommunications and electricity companies, the country’s largest steelmaker, third largest bank and important oil projects.

Although deals were reached to buy 89 per cent of Lafarge’s local unit for $267m (€180m, £140m) and 85 per cent of Holcim’s unit for $552m, Cemex’s demand for $1.3bn was “way, way above” the value of its plants, said Rafael Ramírez, energy minister. “We respect private interests. But no private interest can be above the interests of the people.”

Mr Chávez accused the cement companies of exporting their products amid scarcity in the domestic market, as well as selling “the most expensive [cement] in the world”, with the region’s highest production costs. He also said lack of investment had left it with outdated and environmentally harmful technology.

On Monday Venezuela reached an agreement to pay the Argentine steel conglomerate Ternium $1.65bn for a 50 per cent stake in steelmaker Sidor, in which it will retain a 10 per cent stake, Argentine media reported.

Local consultant Ecoanalitica estimates outstanding payments for recent takeovers in the oil, banking, steel and cement sectors amount to almost $12bn.

Negotiations with Cemex are expected to continue, with transfer of control due on December 31. A source tracking the proceedings said talks between Cemex and the government after Monday night’s expropriation were “very civilised”. Venezuela intends to own at least 60 per cent of the cement companies.

Cemex’s Venezuelan operations accounted for less than 4 per cent of total earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation in 2007. But analysts say an acceptable deal would help reduce debt, which rose to $19bn after acquiring Australian rival Rinker in its biggest takeover deal yet.

If it cannot secure a fair price for its assets, Cemex said it could file for international arbitration under a bilateral investment treaty.

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SEC set to overhaul data filing system

By Stacy-Marie Ishmael

Published: August 19 2008 21:34 | Last updated: August 19 2008 21:34

The US Securities and Exchange Commission said on Tuesday that it would replace its decades-old system of collecting, collating and distributing financial information with a new interactive database.

The Interactive Data Electronic Applications (Idea) database will supplement and eventually replace the existing Edgar system for company filings. Idea will run in parallel with Edgar for about three years, and filings in the interactive data format will be available from later this year.

“This isn’t just a renaming of Edgar. It’s a fundamental change in the way the SEC collects, distributes and manages information,” said Christopher Cox, the commission’s chairman. “Idea is the SEC’s new technology framework to make analysis faster, better and cheaper for investors.”

Unlike Edgar, the new system will allow investors and analysts to search and download financial data into spreadsheets and proprietary models. Idea is based on the extensible business reporting language, or XBRL, which uses electronic “tags” to identify financial data.

In May, the SEC proposed rules that would mandate the largest public companies in the US to file their financial results in XBRL format by early 2009. The proposal, which is currently non-binding, would be applied to smaller companies in 2010 and 2011.

XBRL has not, however, gained traction in the US. A recent survey by Compliance Week showed that nearly 80 per cent of companies polled had little or no familiarity with the technology.

Francine McKenna, author of the blog re:TheAuditors and a former director at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, said companies were unprepared for the change: “Companies will need a lot of consulting help to implement XBRL and incorporate into the new Reg FD [fair disclosure rules] suggestions to do more with their websites and investor relations blogs.”

Dr William Lutz, who is leading the SEC’s 21st Century Disclosure Project, said XBRL and Idea would allow the regulatory body to provide data in a format that was more useful for the investment community. “If I were in Hollywood and I were pitching this disclosure project, I would describe it as financial disclosure meets the Matrix,” he said.

Dr Lutz, an academic and advocate of “plain English” financial reporting, compared the Edgar system to a Model T Ford. “A Model T was reasonable, reliable, and it got you there,” he said. “But we wouldn’t want to drive one today.” He said the SEC was also moving away from its forms-based system for filing financial data.

The SEC put the cost of implementing the Idea system in the “low tens of thousands of dollars”. But Dominic Jones, a principal at Clarity Communications in Canada and a consultant on investor relations, said those figures did not consider secondary costs of implementation, and put the estimate at around $60,000.

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German investor mood brightens

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

Published: August 19 2008 11:23 | Last updated: August 19 2008 11:23

Investors’ gloom over German economic prospects has lifted this month, with recession fears receding, according to a closely-watched survey.

The improvement in the Mannheim-based ZEW institute’s economic sentiment indicator – by 8.4 points in August to minus 55.5 points – added to evidence that Europe’s largest economy might be over the worst of the economic downturn. German gross domestic product had contracted by 0.5 per cent in the three months to June, figures showed last week.

Financial market experts “reckon with a weaker, but all-in-all a robust development and, rightly, do not fear a recession,” said Wolfgang Franz, ZEW president. A technical recession is defined as two quarters of negative growth.

Meanwhile German producer price inflation accelerated to a 27-year high of 8.9 per cent in July, with the latest rise driven higher by energy costs. according to official figures. With German trade unions also lobbying for higher wage deals, “we can expect the German contingent on the governing council of the European Central Bank to remain in relatively hawkish mode,” said Ken Wattret at BNP Paribas.

Optimism about Germany’s growth prospects may have been boosted in the past few weeks falls in the euro and in oil prices. Unlike the US, the UK and Spain, Germany has not seen house prices soaring in recent years – and so is at no risk of a property market collapse. German industry also appears to have escaped largely unscathed from the effects of global financial turmoil.

Still, a rapid rebound in Germany appears unlikely. Growth this year has been hit by the effects of higher energy costs in curbing consumer spending, and of deteriorating global economic conditions on German exports. The ZEW index remains significantly lower than its historical average of 28.3 points.

The Bundesbank warned earlier this week that the German economy faced a “long, hard haul” in the second half of the year, even if second quarter growth figures had been distorted downwards by special factors.

At the same time, the ZEW index has sometimes proved volatile in the past and economists may put more weight on the Munich-based Ifo institute’s business confidence index and German purchasing managers indices’ due later this month.

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Kiev debt costs rise over Moscow worries

By Roman Olearchyk in Kiev and David Oakley in London

Published: August 19 2008 18:21 | Last updated: August 19 2008 18:21

The cost of insuring Ukraine’s debt against restructuring or default rose to its highest since the 2004 Orange Revolution on Tuesday, as investors fretted that the Kremlin’s spat with the west could spill over into a vast country of 46m people that straddles the divide between a resurgent Russia and the European Union.

Worries about the debt have intensified after a dispute over the use by Russian warships of the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Sevastopol.

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, on Monday sent a warning to Ukraine’s pro-western leadership not to restrict Moscow’s use of naval bases on the Crimean peninsula. “Nobody should be telling us how we should behave. . . Interference [by Ukraine] will not lead to anything good,” he told reporters in the Russian city of Vladikavkaz.

Five-year credit default swaps rose six basis points from Monday’s close to 467 basis points, Commerzbank said. Ukraine’s CDS have risen sharply since August 8, when fighting broke out between Russia and Georgia.

Paul Biszko, senior emerging market strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said: “The market has become increasingly nervous as the Russians have refused to budge from Georgia. As the crisis has dragged on, the intransigence of the Russians has suggested to many investors that Ukraine could be next on the hit list as they have the key strategic asset of the Crimea, where the Russian fleet is based in the Black Sea.

“Could the Russians decide to take back the Crimea from Ukraine? It is possible. That’s why we have seen the cost to insure Ukraine debt rise sharply.”

Kiev has been a vocal supporter of Georgia despite Ukraine being the home to a sizeable Russian minority in the Crimea, where more than 100,000 of the region’s 2m population have Russian citizenship.

Leonid Kravchuk, the first elected president of Ukraine after it declared its independence from the Soviet Union, urged the present leadership to be cautious with Russia. “We should not give any grounds for a forceful or conflict scenario of settling both country’s differences, starting with the question of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet,” he said.

Kiev worries that Moscow may refuse to remove its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol when a lease agreement expires in 2017. More disturbing is the prospect of Russian support for separatists in the Crimea, with the aim of annexing it in much the same way Georgia claims Moscow plotted with Abkhazia and South Ossetia to wrest them from Tblisi’s control.

Proryv, a pro-Russian organisation that operates in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is also active in Crimea. Nadyezhda Polyakova, leader of the group in Crimea, says “heightened tensions” in connection with events in Georgia and persecution of pro-Russian organisations by Ukraine’s authorities could “spark serious escalation and conflict as seen in Georgia”.

Influential Russians such as Yuri Luzhkov, the Moscow mayor, have repeatedly questioned Ukraine’s territorial rights over Crimea, which was administered as part of Russia until 1954. The Kremlin has not publicly questioned Kiev’s rights but Ukrainian officials fear its northern neighbour could have ambitions to reclaim the peninsula.

Kiev also accuses Russia of dragging its feet on agreements to demarcate borders on the Azov Sea. At stake, in addition to a strategic naval base on the Black Sea, are potentially vast untapped oil and gas reserves in the Black and Azov Seas.

Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine president, has urged Ukrainians to support his bid to join Nato as soon as possible, arguing that Kiev desperately needs foreign security guarantees.

However, two thirds of Ukrainians fear it will upset Russia and believe Nato could drag Ukrainian soldiers into wars across the globe, such as Iraq.

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Foreign fields: Rich states look beyond their borders for fertile soil

By Javier Blas and Andrew England

Published: August 19 2008 19:33 | Last updated: August 19 2008 19:33

Saudi wheat

Saudi Arabia has no permanent rivers or lakes. Rainfall is low and unreliable. Cereals can be cultivated only through expensive projects that deplete underground reservoirs. Dairy cattle must be cooled with fans and machines that spray them with water mists. This is not, in short, a nation that would normally be associated with large-scale agriculture.

But that could be about to change. Boosted by revenues from the oil boom and concerned about food security, the kingdom is scouring the globe for fertile lands in a search that has taken Saudi officials to Sudan, Ukraine, Pakistan and Thailand.

Their plan is to set up large-scale projects overseas that will later involve the private sector in growing crops such as corn, wheat and rice. Once a country has been selected, each project could be in excess of 100,000 hectares – about 10 times the size of Manhattan island – and the majority of the crop would be exported back, officials say.

While Saudi Arabia’s plans are among the grandest, they reflect growing interest in such projects among capital-rich countries that import most of their food. The United Arab Emirates is looking into Kazakhstan and Sudan, Libya is hoping to lease farms in Ukraine and South Korea has hinted at plans in Mongolia. Even China – with plenty of cultivable land but not a lot of water – is exploring investments in south-east Asia.

“This is a new trend within the global food crisis,” says Joachim von Braun, director of the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute. “The dominant force today is security of food supplies.”

World food pricesAlarmed by exporting countries’ trade restrictions – such as India’s curbs on exports of rice, Ukraine’s halt to wheat shipments and Argentina’s imposition of heavy taxes on overseas sales of soya – importing countries have realised that their dependence on the international food market makes them vulnerable not only to an abrupt surge in prices but, more crucially, to an interruption in supplies.

As a result, food security is at the top of the political agenda for the first time since the 1970s. “The food crisis gave alarms for all countries to look for places to secure supplies of agricultural goods,” says Abdullah al-Obaid, the deputy minister of agriculture in Saudi Arabia.

Mr von Braun, echoing the opinion of dozens of other officials interviewed by the Financial Times, says that faith in the international food market is waning. For the first time since the early 1990s, when trade in farm products rose sharply, many are starting to doubt the wisdom of depending on agricultural imports. “The importers are nervous and they have realised that they [had] better have a stake in countries with potential for agriculture exports,” he says.

With global food consumption rising, largely due to demand for a meat-rich diet in emerging economies, the challenge of feeding booming populations in countries such as Saudi Arabia is growing by the year. Cereal prices have come off their highs of earlier this year but are still more than three times their average over the past decade.

Food security is firmly behind every plan to invest in agriculture overseas. During a recent tour of central Asia, Khalifa bin Zayed, the UAE president, pointed to the need to lock in supplies. “The UAE is looking at implementing some agricultural projects in Kazakhstan as part of its efforts to develop stable food sources for its needs,” he said.

For countries rich in cultivable land and water but short of capital, such plans could also make a lot of sense. Wheat fields in Ukraine, for example, yield less than 3,000kg a hectare in spite of some of the world’s most fertile soils and abundant rain. That is well below the US’s yield of about 6,500kg a hectare, achieved in less optimal conditions. But more tractors, a lot more fertiliser, better techniques and higher-yielding seeds could change the situation.

Lennart Båge, president of the United Nations’ International Fund for Agriculture Development in Rome, says that land was long thought less important than oil or mineral deposits. “But now fertile land with access to water has become a strategic asset,” he says.

Some countries have grasped the potential of this resource. Sudan, for example, is seeking to attract at least $1bn (€680m, £540m) of capital for its agricultural sector from Arab and Asian investment groups. The investment ministry is marketing 17 large-scale projects that would cover an area of 880,000 hectares.

Meles Zenawi, the prime minister of Ethiopia, is also enthusiastic. After welcoming a Saudi agriculture delegation a fortnight ago, he said: “We told them [the Saudis] that we would be very eager to provide hundreds of thousands of hectares of agricultural land for investment.”

Yet such deals are likely to come at a heavy price for food-producing countries. Through secretive bilateral agreements, the investors hope to be able to bypass any potential trade restriction that the host country might impose during a crisis.

For some policymakers, this evokes the nightmare scenario of crops being transported out of fortified farms as hungry locals look on – although whether vast tracts could be defended in the manner of, say, oil installations, is open to question. Others point out that the scramble for land is taking place in countries with weak legal environments, where most farmers lack formal tenure rights or access to compensation mechanisms.

Supporters of free trade in agriculture are also worried by what they consider to be attempts to build ownership of food production rather than increase supply to the international market. Ed Schafer, US agriculture secretary, says he would be concerned if the investments were simply a means to “bypass the international market and global trade agreements”.

European agriculture officials add that the poorest food-deficit countries, such as those in west Africa, would suffer most: unable to invest overseas, they would also be most vulnerable to rising prices in a diminished international market.

Multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, which initially encouraged foreign investment in agriculture as a way to boost global output, are moderating their previous support.

The change is clearly seen in the posture of Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, who initially described state-led foreign investment as a “win-win venture” ’. Now a spokesperson for the bank says: “This is a situation that could bring real benefits to people in some developing countries, but to be sustainable, land purchase or lease arrangements must benefit, and be seen to benefit, all parties including citizens of the host country, local communities and investors.”

A similar shift can be observed in Jacques Diouf, director-general at the FAO. He initially called for “joint-venture agreements between, on the one hand, those countries that have the financial resources and, on the other, those that possess land, water and human resources”.

Jacques Diouf

But now he is warning of the risk of a “neo-colonial” agricultural system. “Some negotiations [between host countries and the investors] have led to unequal international relations and short-term mercantilist agriculture,” says Mr Diouf.

Mr Båge also agrees there could be problems. “We are talking about some host countries where there is widespread poverty and hunger, and we must ensure that the local populations share fully in the benefits of these initiatives.”

For example, in Sudan – one country targeted by almost all Gulf investors – the World Food Programme, the UN agency that deals with food emergencies, is feeding 5.6m people. If the investment plans go ahead, Sudan, perversely, could be exporting to rich nations while its own population suffers.

Chinese officials, who supported Beijing’s expansive policy to secure commodities such as oil and metals in Africa, seem aware of the potential dangers. Although Beijing has explored deals in the Philippines and Laos, and has also developed some small projects in Africa – mostly “demonstration” farms that educate locals in farming techniques – it appears to have little appetite for large-scale investment in agriculture overseas.

“There are so many people starving in Africa,” says Xie Guoli, a trade official at the Chinese ministry of agriculture. “Can you ship the grain back to China? The cost will be very high, as well as the risk.”

Nevertheless, some Chinese private-sector companies are looking at investing in farmland, although officials say that they are focusing on central Asia rather than Africa. Beijing seems more relaxed about the potential for conflict in countries such as Kazakhstan, where the transportation costs would also be lower.

United Nations agriculture and food aid officials are also worried about the potential for corruption, given the weakness of governance in many African and central Asian countries.

They suggest the investments should be governed by a framework similar in scope to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a scheme that obliges resource-rich countries to publish company payments and government revenues from oil, gas and mining.

The EITI has helped to tackle corruption in the oil and minerals sector, officials say. But a similar scheme for agriculture could take months of negotiations – and food-deficit countries are in a hurry. As western officials discuss risks and safeguards, Saudi Arabia and others appear to want to lease land ahead of the next planting season.

Additional reporting by Barney Jopson in Addis Ababa

Past failures temper hopes for Sudan

As oil-rich Gulf states hunt for overseas land to set up agricultural projects it should come as no surprise that their attention turns towards Sudan, writes Andrew England.

As Africa’s largest country, it has vast tracts of land. The White Nile and the Blue Nile, which cross into Sudan from Uganda and Ethiopia respectively – before joining in Khartoum to form the Nile proper – provide plentiful water for irrigation. Sudan is a member of the 22-nation Arab League, Arabic is its lingua franca, and the country sits just across the Red Sea from Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s most populous state.

But putting any plans into practice will throw up a host of hurdles. In spite of being an oil producer since 1999, Sudan is impoverished and hugely underdeveloped, the result of decades of conflict and government mismanagement.

The quality of roads, for example, will determine how easily producers can transport their harvests from rural areas to ports. In 2003, the World Bank estimated that just 6,240km of Sudan’s 55,000km of roads were tarmacked. And in Sudan and other countries on Gulf states’ radar, investors will have to take on the risks of political instability, corruption and dealing with inefficient bureaucracies.

Previous attempts by Arab states to involve Sudan in solving their food problems have shown just how easily the grandest of visions can end in failure.

Sudan, Crossing a shallow river

During the oil boom of the 1970s, governments joined forces to set up the Arab Authority for Agriculture Investment and Development, with headquarters in Khartoum. The agency’s objectives included contributing to Arab food security.

Most of its projects were to be focused in Sudan, but officials say they achieved little because of a combination of poor management, insufficient financing and regional politics.

“[The AAAID] was sitting here doing nothing,” says Abdul-Rahim Hamdi, a former Sudanese finance minister. “The history of the AAAID was the history of bureaucracy, general managers who didn’t want to do anything or [who wanted] to keep their offices outside of Sudan, and so it did very little.”

Sudan’s relations with its Arab neighbours deteriorated in the 1990s because of the Islamic regime’s support for Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, its willingness to host Osama bin Laden and his followers and accusations that it was involved in the 1995 assassination attempt on Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian president.

Relations have since improved, but the Darfur conflict continues to destablise Sudan, while Omar al-Bashir, the country’s president, is the first sitting head of state to be indicted for genocide by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court.

Still, Mr Hamdi is optimistic, arguing that the needs of food importers will outweigh any political considerations.

He adds that projects currently being discussed will differ from those of the 1970s and 1980s because they will involve bilateral government agreements and greater input from the private sector.

Under Saudi Arabia’s plans, for example, Riyadh hopes it will act as a facilitator for overseas projects, with bilateral agreements to protect investments and to agree on what percentage of produce would be exported back to the kingdom. But it will be looking to the Saudi private sector to invest in and run any schemes. That could create its own set of problems.

“Convincing the private sector is not going to be easy,” says an analyst based in Saudi Arabia. “Some of these countries are extremely corrupt ... and will they have the political will to improve their infrastructures?”

“It’s not easy to tell another country to build roads because we want to export things.”

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CNPC, Sinopec in joint bid for Peru's Petro-Tech
Reuters
By Chen Aizhu Reuters - Tuesday, August 19 02:34 pm

BEIJING (Reuters) - Peruvian offshore oil and gas driller Petro-Tech Peruana is in the sights of China's top two oil firms, CNPC and Sinopec Group, with a rare joint takeover bid worth up to $2.5 billion.
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The two have teamed up to submit a joint bid of between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion for the private U.S. firm, which has eight exploration licences and made Peru's first ever offshore oil discovery, a Beijing-based industry official said on Tuesday.

Sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters last week that Petro-Tech was up for sale and that Chinese firms were likely to make an offer. It was not clear if they would face any competition for Petro-Tech, although Peruvian newspaper Gestion said in January that Royal Dutch Shell was interested in buying the firm.

Petro-Tech, which is owned by Houston-based Offshore International Group, has been an active bidder for licences to prospect in shallow Peruvian offshore waters and now has more than 5 million acres. It produces just 22,000 barrels of oil per day, but several discoveries point to greater potential.

In June, it made an important natural gas discovery at Block Z-2B, five miles (7.5 km) off the northern coast in Piura, close to its San Pedro field, which was discovered in 2005. The two fields have reserves estimated at up to 1.2 trillion cubic feet and they could cost up to $120 million to develop.

In April, Petro-Tech found an oil reserve of 1.13 billion barrels at block Z-6, also in northern Peru. It could begin production as early as 2010.

Peru has proven natural gas reserves of more than 13.4 trillion cubic feet but oil production has been in long-term decline and the government wants investors to help boost output of both oil and gas.

Peru's shortage of energy, exacerbated by a hydroelectric drought this year, has rattled its power-hungry mining industry, the backbone of the economy, which is racing to keep up with demand from China. Several Chinese mining and metals companies such as steelmaker Shougang Corp have already invested in Peru.

Peru would be a new departure for Chinese oil firms, which - after a flurry of overseas deals in the first half of the decade - appear to have slowed acquisitions as big, premium-quality assets get more scarce and costly.

Coordination is increasing among Beijing's oil trio -- CNPC, Sinopec and offshore specialist CNOOC Ltd -- to avoid clashes in competing for the same targets.

"With little success securing bigger assets, companies are now forced to look at medium or small-sized ones like this Peru one," said the Beijing official.

"Then it means you pay a higher cost per barrel."

CNPC's listed subsidiary, PetroChina , is developing heavy oil resources in Venezuela, while Sinopec is bidding for assets in Russia and - jointly with Chinese number three oil firm CNOOC - in Angola.

"Peru strikes me as a place that will be a whole lot easier for Chinese state-owned enterprises to operate in than some private outfit out of Houston," said Larry Grace, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Kim Eng Securities.

Despite the surge in oil prices over the past year, profits at both Sinopec and PetroChina have suffered because of the need to refine expensive crude into gasoline that sells at state-capped prices in China. That could help explain the unusual joint bid for Petro-Tech, Grace said.

"Working as a team allows for both refiners to benefit, and for the regulators not to be accused necessarily of playing favourites in reducing exposure to swings in the oil price."

Petro-Tech, Sinopec and CNPC officials were not immediately available for comment.

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De Beers rough diamond prices up in 2008
Reuters
Reuters - Tuesday, August 19 02:36 pm

LONDON (Reuters) - De Beers has boosted rough diamond prices by 16 percent so far this year due to strong demand, the firm said on Tuesday.
(Advertisement)

De Beers, 45 percent owned by mining group Anglo American , said in July it was cautious about developments in the second half due to a downturn in the United States, the top diamond jewellery market.

The firm's marketing unit, the Diamond Trading Company (DTC), has increased prices for rough, or unpolished, diamonds several times this year. The latest 16 percent cumulative figure included a further hike in August, a statement said.

The DTC said in July it had increased prices by 5 percent on top of previous price hikes of 8.5 percent this year.

"So far during 2008, DTC has seen strong and continuing consumer demand for most categories of polished diamonds, especially in the larger goods," Mahiar Borhanjoo, executive director of DTC sales and client services, said.

"The DTC takes a long term, sustainable view on its pricing and decisions are influenced first and foremost by demand for polished (gems)."

Last month, De Beers said a difficult retail market in the United States, which accounts for around half of all diamond jewellery sales, was dampening sales of cheaper, mass market items using lower quality gems.

Buoyant growth in China, India, Russia and the Middle East, however, was helping to balance some of the U.S. impact, it said in July when releasing first half results.

De Beers, which controls around 40 percent of the rough diamond market, posted a 10 percent rise in first half rough diamond sales to $3.3 billion and increased its contribution to the underlying earnings of Anglo by 6.4 percent to $166 million.

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UK 'Recession And Unemployment'
SkyNews
By Sky News SkyNews - Tuesday, August 19 11:50 am

Some 300,000 people will lose their jobs over the next two to three years and unemployment levels may top two million, Britain's business leaders say.
(Advertisement)

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) also forecasts the UK economy will enter recession within the coming year.

In its latest quarterly economic forecast, the BCC said Britain was heading into a "technical" recession of two or more quarters of declining output over the next six or nine months.

But a major recession similar to the downturn seen in the early 1990s was unlikely, the organisation said.

However, the forecast also predicted that unemployment would climb by some 300,000 and could break through the two million barrier if conditions deteriorated.

The main reasons for the slump will be a "very sharp" slowdown in consumer spending growth as households tighten their belts amid soaring bills and falling house prices, the BCC said.

Last week, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King also warned that the UK economy could suffer two quarters of negative growth as it went through a "difficult and painful adjustment".

Inflation hit a record 4.4% in July, and Mr King warned it could spend the rest of this year around the 5% mark before falling away through 2009.

David Kern, the BCC's economic adviser, said the UK urgently needed an interest rate cut to stimulate the economy.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held rates at 5% in July, the third month in a row they were left unchanged.

"Our view is that the threats to growth are more serious and more immediate than the risks of higher inflation," Mr Kern said.

"The UK economy urgently needs an interest rate cut to counter threats of recession."

The report also warned that if the global slowdown got even worse, the MPC decided not to cut interest rates and the Government did not take corrective action, the UK's economic plight could become even worse than it had forecast.

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特許庁、特許権の乱用防止へ指針　訴訟増加に対応

　特許庁は特許を持つ企業や個人が権利を行使できる範囲について、指針をつくる方針だ。特許を侵害しているとして、メーカーなどに高額の和解金やライセンス料を要求する「特許管理会社」が増え、訴訟が相次いでいることに対応。特許権の行き過ぎた主張は日本経済の活力をそぐ結果にもなりかねないため「適正な権利行使」と「乱用」を区別するための目安が必要と判断した。

　指針は産業界、弁理士、法学者などでつくる「特許権の適切な行使のあり方に関する検討委員会」で検討し、年度内にもまとめる。どこまでが特許権の「適正な行使」で、どこからが「乱用」なのか、一定の基準を示したい考えだ。

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国民年金保険料の07年度実質納付率、若年層ほど低く

　社会保険庁が試算した2007年度の国民年金保険料の実質納付率は、47.3％と2年連続で5割を下回った。年齢層が低いほど納付率が低いのが特徴。公的年金への不信感が高まるなかで、強制加入による「国民皆年金」の看板がゆらいでいる。

　社会保険庁は所得の低い保険料免除者や猶予者を未納者とは区別し、納付率計算式から除いて納付率を算出している。この免除・猶予者を含めて本当に払った人の比率を示すのが「実質納付率」だ。07年度の実質納付率は社保庁が公表した従来の「納付率」の63.9％を大きく下回る。

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大阪・泉佐野市、関空連絡橋に通行税　総務相の同意必要

　大阪府泉佐野市議会は19日、関西国際空港と対岸を結ぶ連絡橋（道路部分）の通行車両に独自に課税する条例案を可決した。現在は関西国際空港会社が保有・管理している連絡橋を今年度中に国有化するため、泉佐野市の固定資産税の税収減を補うのが目的。普通乗用車1台につき1往復150円を徴収する。総務省によれば、今年4月時点で自治体が独自に道路に課税している例はないという。

　国有化により連絡橋の普通車通行料は現行の1500円から800円に下がるとみられ、市が課税すると値下げ幅が圧縮されることになる。実際に課税するには総務相の同意が必要で、市は同意が得られれば国有化と同時に実施したい考え。

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農水省、野菜の消費拡大へ緊急キャンペーン

　農林水産省は19日、低迷する野菜の消費の回復を目指し、緊急のキャンペーンを実施すると発表した。同省によると、主な野菜の卸売価格は平年より2―3 割安く、生産者の経営を圧迫している。全国農業協同組合連合会（ＪＡ全農）のイベントなどを通じて消費拡大を訴える。こうした緊急対策はここ数年はなかったという。

　今年の出荷量は例年並み。ただ若年層の野菜の消費量が減っているなど、野菜の消費意欲が減退していることが響いている。既にダイコンで緊急の需給調整を実施。白菜やレタスなどの価格は平年より3割程度落ち込んでいる。

　農水省は消費拡大を訴えるパンフレットの配布を増やしたり、全農の活動を助成したりする。全農によれば、卸売価格は落ち込んでいるが、スーパーなどでの小売価格は高いままの野菜もあり、そうした状況が消費の拡大につながっていない可能性もあるという。

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子供の野菜嫌い、母親が原因？　カゴメ調べ

　カゴメがまとめた野菜摂取に関する調査によると、子供の野菜嫌いは母親の好みの影響を強く受けていることが分かった。

　母親に対し、子供が野菜についてどう思っているか聞いたところ「とても好き」と「まあまあ好き」の“好き派”の合計は45.5％だった。ただ、母親自身が好きだった場合は、子供も野菜好きと答えた割合は58.8％に急増した。反対に、母親自身が野菜を「とても嫌い」か「やや嫌い」である場合では、子供が野菜を好きとする割合は14.8％に激減するという結果が出た。

　調査は4月1日から6月20日にかけてインターネットで実施。主に3―7歳の幼児・児童を子供に持つ保護者3863人から回答を得た。

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次世代燃料メタンハイドレート、海洋産出2012年度試験

　経済産業省は19日、次世代エネルギーとして期待されるメタンハイドレートを巡る「開発実施検討会」を開いた。2012年度に日本近海での海洋産出試験に初めて乗り出し、18年度以降の商業化をめざすことを確認した。海洋試験では周辺の環境に与える影響についても調査する。

　メタンハイドレートは天然ガスの成分にあたるメタンが低温・高圧の状態で、水の分子にシャーベットのようにとじ込められている。原油価格が高止まりするなかで石油製品の代替燃料として注目されており、この先の開発計画をまとめた。

　主な調査対象としている「静岡県沖―和歌山県沖」の海域だけでも天然ガス換算で、国内消費量の14年分弱の埋蔵量があると見込む。09年度からの3年間は米アラスカなどで陸上産出試験を実施する。同時に海洋産出試験に向けた技術的な課題を整理し、12年度にも日本近海での試掘に踏み切る予定だ。海洋試験の水深は1000メートル前後とみられ、生態系や地層などに影響がないかどうかも調べる。

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大証、インドなどの通貨連動のＥＴＦ　ＢＲＩＣｓ関連そろう

　大阪証券取引所は9月にもインドやブラジル、ロシアの通貨に連動する上場投資信託（ＥＴＦ）を上場させる。大証はすでに中国やロシアの株価指数に連動するＥＴＦを上場しており、ＢＲＩＣｓ（ブラジル、ロシア、インド、中国）に関連するＥＴＦがそろう。成長期待の高い新興市場への投資を容易にし、投資家の選択肢を広げる。

　通貨に連動するＥＴＦは国内の取引所では初めて。新たに上場する3種類のＥＴＦは、それぞれルピー、レアル、ルーブルに対する日本円の水準に連動する債券を組み込む。通常の株式と同じように取引所で売買でき、保有すれば年4回の配当金を受け取れる。

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住友軽金属子会社、アルミはく製品を10月値上げ

　住友軽金属工業子会社の住軽アルミ箔（東京・千代田）は、アルミニウムはく製品を10月出荷分から値上げすると発表した。値上げ率は産業用の加工はくで 5―15％、着色などの2次加工をしないプレーンはくで3％弱、家庭・食品包装向けの製品で10％以上とする。アルミ地金、資材、燃料価格などの高騰に対応するためで、プレーンはくは1月に続き今年2回目の値上げとなる。

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三菱マテ、ドリルなど工具５―10％値上げ

　三菱マテリアルは20日、工業用ドリルなどの工具を10月1日出荷分より値上げすると発表した。劣化防止の特殊コーティングをしていないドリルなどは 10％、切断用の歯切工具や穴の内部を加工する「ブローチ」は5％以上引き上げる。原材料の鉄鋼やレアメタル価格が高騰しているためで、工具の値上げは 2005年10月以来。

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商社、航空機リース拡大　「コスト面で有利」、需要広がる

　総合商社が航空機リース事業を強化する。三菱商事は他社の買収や人材確保を進めやすくするため、本体と子会社に分散する関連部門を集約。住友商事は日本航空からリース契約を初めて獲得した。燃料高で経営効率化が急務の航空会社は、所有機体を売却してリースに切り替える動きが広がる見通し。三菱商事は5年後に倍増の120機、住商は3、4年後に5倍の百機へ増やす計画だ。

　両社が力を入れるのは航空機を持ち、リース終了後に別の貸与先や転売先を探すオペレーティングリースと呼ぶ事業。三菱商事は商社首位の60機、住商は2位の19機を持ち、内外の航空約15社にリースしている。

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昨年の参院選、経費580億円　人件費見直しで30億円削減

　昨年7月の参院選の執行経費は最終的に580億円となり、従来に比べて30億円減ったことが総務省の政策評価でわかった。法改正により投票事務に従事する職員数の基準を見直した効果が出た。次期衆院選も57億円の経費削減効果を見込んでいる。

　参院選の経費の内訳は、投・開票所の運営費や人件費、選挙公報の発行、ポスター掲示場の設置・撤去費など。削減分は主に投開票など実際の事務にあたる地方自治体への委託費を従来基準の556億円から526億円に圧縮して捻出（ねんしゅつ）した。

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「もんじゅ」再開、09年２月に延期　原研機構

　日本原子力研究開発機構は20日までに、1995年のナトリウム漏れ事故から長期停止している高速増殖炉「もんじゅ」（福井県敦賀市）の運転再開を予定していた今年10月から来年2月に延期することを決めた。安全性を確認する試験が遅れているため。

　20日午後、岡崎俊雄理事長らが福井県庁などを訪れ、運転再開時期の遅れを報告する。

　同機構はポンプや配管などの安全性を確かめるプラント確認試験を昨年8月から進めていた。今春にナトリウム漏れ検出器の誤警報が多発した。検出器の総点検に時間を取られ、8月までの予定だったプラント確認試験の終了時期がずれ込み、10月の運転再開が難しくなった。

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来春の新入社員、93％が携帯メールでコミュニケーション

　研修サービスなどを手掛けるアルー（東京・渋谷）は2009年4月に入社する内定者の意識調査をまとめた。周囲とコミュニケーションを取る場合の手法を 3つまで聞いたところ、「会う」が98.1％で最も多く「携帯電話のメール」が93.3％とわずかな差で続いた。「電話する」は74.9％で3位だった。同社は「コミュニケーション能力の不足で、対面ではない手法を活用する傾向がある」とみている。

　「何歳ぐらい離れると年上に対してコミュニケーションで苦手意識を持つか」と聞いたところ、「年上に苦手意識はない」が73.9％で最も多かった。ただ「1―5歳」と年齢が近い世代が9.0％で続き、「6―10歳」も7.1％で「11―20歳」と同じ比率になった。苦手意識はむしろ年齢が近い相手に対して強くなる傾向が出た。

　調査は8月2―3日にインターネットで実施。来春入社予定の大学生と大学院生の内定者310人が回答した。

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ＮＨＫ再雇用の基準作り求める　経営委が執行部に

　不祥事で懲戒処分になった元職員をＮＨＫ本体や子会社などが再雇用していた問題で、ＮＨＫ経営委員会の岩崎芳史委員長代行は19日、執行部に対し再雇用に関する一定の基準づくりを求めたことを明らかにした。

　同日開催された経営委では「再雇用は世間の常識とずれている」などの批判や、対策を求める意見が相次いだ。これに対し福地茂雄会長は、再雇用の可否を審査する委員会を設置するなどの対応策を示したという。

　この問題では、海外特派員時代に支局の経費を水増し請求し2005年に停職処分を受けた元解説主幹が、06年6月の定年退職後に解説委員として再雇用されていたことも新たに判明した。

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消費税上げ「賛成３割」　全国企業調査　所得税減税に期待（08/17 07:10）

　民間信用調査会社の帝国データバンクが実施した企業調査によると、消費税率引き上げへの賛否は、反対が５０・１％と過半数を占めたが、賛成も２９・５％で、ほぼ三割に達した。道内では、反対５４・８％、賛成２５・１％だった。

　反対の理由（複数回答）は、「歳出削減が進んでいない」が８０・２％で最も多く、「景気が一層悪くなる」が６６・８％で続いた。賛成の理由（同）は、「財源確保が緊急の課題」が６２・７％。帝国データバンクは「財政を懸念する経営者が多く、予想以上に賛成が多い」としている。

　税制改正の議論で期待する内容（複数回答）としては、所得税減税が５１・６％で最も多かった。

　道内では、所得税減税５４・５％、ガソリン税の暫定税率廃止４６・３％の順で、いずれも全国十地域別では回答割合が最も高かった。同社は「ガソリン使用量が多く、個人消費も特に冷え込んでいる道内の事情を反映した」と分析している。

　調査は七月、全国二万一千四十社を対象に行われ、有効回答率は５０・６％。

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漁業：戦略的な大漁、携帯サイトで狙え　船上で市場情報－－石川の漁協開発

　市場の動きを船上で把握し、効率的な漁に結びつけようと、石川県漁業協同組合の魚市場「かなざわ総合市場」（金沢市）が、入荷情報などを即時に確認できる携帯電話サイトを開設した。甘エビの入荷が多ければ底引き網の漁場を変えてカレイを狙うなど、漁師が戦略的に活用できる内容。燃油高騰など漁業者を見舞う荒波を乗り切るツールとして期待されている。

　同市場の１日の取扱量は６０～７０トン。水揚げ量や価格は天候などで大きく変動し、漁業者にとってはより迅速な情報収集が課題だった。今年５月、魚ごとの取引価格などの市況を掲載し、その日の入荷予定箱数や出休漁の情報などを加えた。

　今年は燃油高騰や魚価の低迷で採算が取れず、６月にイカ釣り漁が休漁。今月１８日にもサンマ漁が一斉休漁に入るなど取り巻く環境は厳しい。市場の福平伸一郎次長は「効率的な漁につなげられれば」と話している。

　サイト（http://www.jf－ｎｅｔ．ｎｅ．ｊｐ／ｉｋｇｙｏｒｅｎ／ｐ－ｊｆｉｋ／ＪＦｉｓｈｉｋａｗａ－ｐｔｏｐ．ｈｔｍｌ）は一般の人も閲覧できる。

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メタボ：腹囲が必須条件から外れる　診断基準を国際統一

　メタボリックシンドローム（内臓脂肪症候群）の診断基準が国際的に統一され、腹囲が診断の必須条件から外れることが分かった。年内にも暫定基準が公表され、今後、世界のメタボ診断や治療・研究は、統一基準に基づいて行われる。一方、日本が今年度から始めた特定健診・保健指導（メタボ健診）では、腹囲測定が必須でシンボル的存在。今回の統一は、国際的に日本の特異さを際立たせることになる。

　世界には複数のメタボ診断基準があり、混乱が生じている。このため、約１５０カ国の専門家が参加する国際糖尿病連合（ＩＤＦ）と、米国コレステロール教育プログラム（ＮＣＥＰ）が中心となって、診断基準の統一を呼び掛け、今年２月から協議を進めた。

　ＩＤＦ基準は、腹囲が基準値以上で、中性脂肪など血液検査の結果の４項目のうち２項目に異常があればメタボと診断する。腹囲は人種別に定めている。一方、ＮＣＥＰと米心臓協会・米国心肺血液研究所は、腹囲など５項目のうち３項目に異常があればメタボとする。腹囲は必須条件ではなく、基準値は１種類しかない。日本はＩＤＦと同じ考え方に基づく。

　統一基準はＮＣＥＰを基本とし、腹囲は必須条件から外れるが、人種別に定める。ＮＣＥＰ基準は肥満でなくても他の項目に異常があればメタボと診断される。日本では、肥満ではない生活習慣病患者も多く、腹囲を必須にした場合、「見落とし」を懸念する声が出ていた。

　米国心肺血液研究所のジェームズ・クリーマン博士によると、同研究所などが今後、暫定基準に合致する人とそうでない人を対象に、心血管疾患発症や死亡率の違いを分析し、診断基準としての科学的妥当性を検討する。

　日本基準の腹囲については、これまでも科学的根拠に疑問が出されている。基準策定で中心になった日本肥満学会理事長で松澤佑次・住友病院長は「日本の基準は、内臓脂肪がメタボの原因にあるとの考え方から、腹囲によって対象者をＮＣＥＰよりも絞り込んでいる。効率的な対策を実施するという意味では日本基準は正しく、変える必要はない」と話している。

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外食各社が相次ぎ値下げ　食材高転嫁より集客優先

　外食各社が相次いで値下げに動き始めた。セブン＆アイ・ホールディングスは9月11日から、大手ファミリーレストラン「デニーズ」の商品の約2割を値下げする。高級レストランのひらまつは来春までに全店でワイン価格を3割下げる。ガソリン高のあおりや個人消費の低迷で外食企業は売り上げが減少。食品などが値上がりするなか、値下げで集客を優先する企業が増えそうだ。

　値下げの対象はデニーズのメーン料理、サラダ、デザート、ドリンク類など23品目で、下げ幅は10―110円。主要食材の種類は変えず、仕入れや店舗内作業の合理化に伴うコスト削減で対応する。デニーズは既存店売上高が2005年ごろから落ち続けているため、低価格を呼び水に集客増を目指す。

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お葬式、苦情最多に　料金・サービス、業者任せ注意

2008年8月20日14時58分

　葬儀の契約やサービスについて、全国の消費生活センターに寄せられた苦情や相談が０７年度、過去最高の３８４件に達した。国民生活センターによると、０２年度までは年１８０件前後だったが、５年で倍増。今年度も０７年度を上回る勢いで増えている。

　契約・解約に関する苦情が全体の７０％を占める。「契約と違う異常に高額な祭壇が使われていた」「費用の明細を業者が説明しなかった。サービスに不満があり一部返金してほしい」などだ。

　このほか「基本料金プラスアルファで１００万円程度の見積もりだったが、実際と違った」「葬祭業者に言われて払ったお経代と戒名料が、後から菩提寺（ぼだいじ）に聞いた額の２倍以上だった」など価格や料金に関する苦情が４５％。「ひつぎを運ぶ際、部屋の壁を傷つけたが、弁償を断られた」など業者の接客・対応に関する相談も２３％あった。

　国民生活センターは、苦情や相談の増加について、消費者の意識の高まりに加え、営業に許認可や届け出の義務がなく業界に新規参入しやすいことが影響しているとみている。今年６月、業者選びや契約・見積もりの時のチェック項目をまとめた消費者向けリーフレットを発行し、全国の消費生活センターなどに配った。「突然訪れる身内の不幸に動転し、業者の言いなりになりがち。複数の業者に見積もりを依頼し、見積もり以外に費用がかかる時は必ず事前に知らせるよう求めることも必要だ」と呼びかける。

　センターは、業者の３～４割に当たるとみられる約１４００社が加盟する全日本葬祭業協同組合連合会（全葬連）にも改善を要望。全葬連は昨年、消費者への説明責任や情報開示の義務、見積書や料金の明示などを盛り込んだ指針をまとめた。消費者向けの手引も作り始めており、「喪主は弔問客の対応に追われ、飲食の追加を誰がしたのか、詳細が後からわからなくなることがある。あらかじめ親族などの中から責任者を決め、業者との折衝窓口を一本化するといい」と助言する。

　日本消費者協会の消費生活コンサルタント佐伯美智子さんは「葬祭のあり方や業者も多様化しつつある。避けられず、決して安い『買い物』ではないのに、これまで業者任せの人が多かった。トラブルを避けるには、どのような葬式にするか、いくらぐらいかかるのかなどを調べ、普段から準備しておくことも大切だ」と話している。

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皇太子ご一家が那須で静養

2008年8月20日19時1分

　皇太子ご一家は２０日、静養のため、栃木県の那須御用邸付属邸に入った。皇太子さまは宮中行事への参加で３０日に一足先に帰京するが、雅子さまと愛子さまは９月上旬まで滞在する予定。

　ご一家はこの日、ＪＲ新幹線で那須塩原駅に到着。小雨が降る中、駅前には約３５０人が出迎え、バスケットを手にした愛子さまは笑顔で歓声にこたえていた。静養中、お住まいの東宮御所（東京・元赤坂）では改修工事のために引っ越し作業が行われる。