Georgia pulls out of South Ossetia

Georgia pulls out of South Ossetia

By Charles Clover in Gori and Harvey Morris at the United Nations

Published: August 10 2008 16:36 | Last updated: August 10 2008 19:23

Georgia said on Sunday that it was pulling its troops out of the separatist province of South Ossetia, but its appeals for a ceasefire in the widening conflict in the Caucasus failed to halt Russia’s mounting military response.

As the focus of the fighting widened from South Ossetia to Abkhazia, another separatist region within Georgia, Russian aircraft were reported to have struck at targets inside Georgia, including the civilian airport in the capital Tbilisi.

Local officials said Russia also deployed a naval squadron off the coast of Abkhazia where local separatists have historically enjoyed Russia’s support.

As the Russian army consolidated its position in South Ossetia, Moscow’s overall aims were yet to be made clear. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, said on Sunday that Georgia should unconditionally withdraw its forces from the conflict zone and sign a pledge not to attack South Ossetia.

President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia accused Russia of seeking to take over his country. “They want the whole of Georgia,” he said in a magazine interview published on Sunday.

In New York, the United Nations Security Council met to tackle the mounting crisis, and the US and other western states were expected to press for a formal UN resolution demanding a ceasefire in what envoys described as the most serious world crisis for years. At least 2,000 people, including civilians, are estimated to have died on both sides.

Moscow has yet to respond to individual appeals from its Security Council partners to end the fighting after Georgia said it was pulling out its troops.

Vitaly Churkin, Russian ambassador to the UN, said the Georgian announcement had yet to be matched by developments on the ground. “If they want to pull out, they are welcome to do that,” he said.

The UN’s fourth emergency session in three days was marked by a stiff exchange between the Russian and US envoys, reminiscent of the Cold War.

At the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador, said Russia was guilty of grave violations of Georgia’s territory and had shown intransigence in the face of international demands for a ceasefire.

Irakli Alasania, Georgian ambassador to the UN, accused Russia of indiscriminate bombing of civilian populations.

In Abkhazia, separatist leaders deployed troops and heavy weapons along the ceasefire line, according to Edmond Mulet of the UN’s peacekeeping department. International observers had reported the bombardment of nearby Georgian villages.

In a statement issued in Beijing, the White House warned that the “dangerous escalation” of conflict could have a “significant long-term impact on US-Russia relations”.

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Opec income hits record as oil prices soar

By Javier Blas in London, Krishna Guha in Washington and Andrew England in Abu Dhabi

Published: August 10 2008 23:30 | Last updated: August 10 2008 23:30

Opec nations earned as much in the first half of this year as they did in the whole of 2007 – thanks both to record oil prices and record production – triggering a big increase in its spending.

Members of the Saudi ­Arabia-led oil exporters’ cartel took home $645bn (£335bn, €430bn) between January and June, just below the record $671bn they earned last year, according to the US department of energy.

At the current pace, Opec nations would earn about $1,245bn this year, a record.

The recent 20 per cent drop in oil prices below $120 a barrel is unlikely to damp the earnings significantly, as higher output will offset the impact.

Industry estimates suggest that Opec production in July hit a record 32.6m b/d. The current oil price, at $116.53 a barrel, is still higher than the first half of the year’s average: $111.1 a barrel.

The flood of petrodollars has boosted Opec’s overseas spending, with imports rising up to 40 per cent from last year’s level.

Binky Chadha, of Deutsche Bank in New York, said that Asian emerging markets were now the primary beneficiaries of oil exporters’ rising trade expenditure, followed by the euro area.

The US, meanwhile, was losing some of its market share.

“Although oil prices have been increasing, they [Asian emerging markets] have seen an increasing offset in terms of rising exports to the oil exporters,” he said.

China’s share of oil exporters’ spending has risen to 11 per cent, from 4 per cent in 1999, mostly at the expense of the US, where the share of spending has fallen to 7.5 per cent from 12 per cent.

Opec officials believe that the cartel’s overseas spending plus sovereign wealth fund investments in troubled western banks has helped to support global economic growth

The oil boom is being felt in the Gulf perhaps more than anywhere else and is the driver behind a swathe of multi-­billion dollar mega-projects throughout the region.

It is also making the region’s sovereign wealth funds and state investment vehicles more active, particularly as the Gulf’s boom coincides with the financial turmoil in western markets.

HSBC forecasts that between 2006 and 2010 the Gulf will earn more in oil revenue than in the past 20 years combined and that the six states of the Gulf Co-operation Council should earn more in 2008 than the entire 1980s.

But Gulf governments are spending only about 40 per cent to 45 per cent of their public revenues this year, a figure that is lower than it has ever been.

That is in spite of the fact that public spending in absolute terms is at its highest, says Simon Williams, chief economists for Gulf markets at HSBC.

“What people can miss is the magnitude of change this oil price is bringing. It’s probably a $1.2 trillion economy this year for the GCC; five years ago it was more like $350bn.”

He says there are limits to how much oil revenue Gulf countries can absorb, adding that the region is already operating at its maximum absorptive capacity. As a consequence, he says, while the level of domestic spending is rising significantly, overseas savings are rising sharply as well.

Some government officials in the region have already started talking about slowing down government spending as a means of damping inflation, which has reached double-digit figures in many of the Gulf states and is causing increasing ­concern.

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Momentum grows for ousting Musharraf

By Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad

Published: August 10 2008 16:20 | Last updated: August 10 2008 16:20

A key party in Pakistan’s ruling alliance claimed on Sunday to have the support of more than 300 of the 440 members of the two houses of parliament in its efforts to impeach Pervez Musharraf, the president.

Siddique-ul-Farooq, a leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party, said: “Our strength is now well above 300. Pervez Musharraf is history. He will have to go . . . Pakistan will soon have a new president.”

Mr Farooq said PML-N and the Pakistan People’s party (PPP) – with their combined strength of 230 votes – had “received spectacular promises from others parties in the parliament”. This includes four senators from the federally administered tribal areas (FATA), along the Afghan border, who on Saturday formally joined the campaign against Mr Musharraf.

The claim, on the eve of Monday’s sessions of the federal and the four provincial parliaments, reinforced the opposition to Mr Musharraf, the former army chief, who has been the pivotal force in Pakistani politics since he staged a bloodless coup nine years ago.

As Mr Musharraf fights for political survival, members of the coalition are calling on the US-backed leader to step down voluntarily.

The four provincial parliaments are likely to vote in favour of the impeachment – a measure that will be non-binding under Pakistan’s constitution as the provinces cannot vote out the president.

But “the voices from the nation’s four corners will be crucial in forcing Mr Musharraf to reconsider his position”, a government minister said on Sunday.

A vote in the provinces might be followed by a binding vote in the federal parliament where the government needs 295 of the 440 votes, or a two-thirds majority.

The erosion of Mr Musharraf’s position, which began in March 2007 with nationwide protests after he sacked Iftikhar Mohammad Chauhdary, then chief justice of the supreme court, has gathered momentum in the past week.

On Thursday, Nawaz Sharif, leader of the PML-N and Asif Ali Zardari, co-chairman of the PPP, who lead the two largest parties in the ruling coalition, formally announced plans to impeach Mr Musharraf.

Aides to the president on Friday said he had decided to fight back, with some presidential advisers claiming that the ruling coalition was significantly short of the required votes to press ahead with an impeachment.

The crucial factor in the president’s ultimate decision, however, is likely to be the mood in the army, which he commanded until November 2007 and whose goodwill is central to his future.

General Ashfaq Kiyani, the new army chief, has remained quiet since Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif began discussing plans to force Mr Musharraf out of power.

Gen Kiyani has repeatedly told his close friends that he has no interest in seizing power.

The military has concluded that any step into the political fray, from a coup to simply providing overt support for the president, would be unpopular and deepen the instability by spurring further political polarisation and wider economic turmoil.

Talat Masood, a retired lieutenant general, said: “They [the military] will remain out of the picture and remain neutral as things stand right now.” The military’s involvement in the increasingly unpopular US- driven war on terror along the border with Afghanistan, he added, “has already made the military unpopular” to the extent that “confronting a popular backlash against its involvement in a political transition is just not worth considering”.

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China to overtake US as largest manufacturer

By Peter Marsh in London

Published: August 10 2008 22:37 | Last updated: August 10 2008 22:37

China is set to overtake the US next year as the world’s largest producer of manufactured goods, four years earlier than expected, as a result of the rapidly weakening US economy.

The great leap is revealed in forecasts for the Financial Times by Global Insight, a US economics consultancy. According to the estimates, next year China will account for 17 per cent of manufacturing value-added output of $11,783bn and the US will make 16 per cent.

Last year the US was still easily in the top slot and accounted for a fifth of the total. China was second with 13.2 per cent.

John Engler, president of the National Association of Manufacturers, a Washington-based trade group, played down the effect of the projections. It was “inevitable” that China would take over on account of its size, he said. “This should be a wholesome development for the US, for it promises both political stability for the world’s largest country and continuing opportunities for the US to export to, and invest in, the world’s fastest-growing economy.”

As recently as last year, Global Insight economists predicted that the US would retain the top position until 2013, but a large downward revision in likely output this year and next is expected to cause the US to slip more quickly than had been expected.

The data underline the surge of China’s manufacturing-led economy in the past 20 years. In 1990, before economic reforms began to work, it accounted for a meagre 3 per cent of global manufacturing. Manufacturing accounted for just 17.5 per cent of global gross domestic product in 2007, but much activity in the considerably larger area of services, for instance in retailing, distribution, transport and communications, depends on it.

The expected change will end more than a 100 years of US dominance. It returns China to a position it occupied, according to economic historians, for some 1,800 years up to about 1840, when Britain became the world’s biggest manufacturer after its Industrial Revolution.

Global Insight counts manufacturing production for countries – including the activity of foreign-owned companies and local ones – as value-added output.

Value-added data are arrived at by subtracting “inputs” – such as purchases of materials, parts and services – from raw “gross output” as measured by the sales of individual companies. The data also use current-year figures.

If inflation adjustments are used to put the numbers in constant prices, the expected US position looks better, because its inflation over this period is predicted to be lower than China’s.

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Global manufacturing

Published: August 10 2008 19:28 | Last updated: August 10 2008 19:33

So, it is all doom, then, for the UK economy. Richard Lambert, director-general of the CBI, the employers’ organisation, will on Monday warn that the UK is set to become a nation of concrete-pourers unless more of its youngsters study science, the key to a new industrial revolution. He might, however, take heart from new projections for the global manufacturing sector produced for the Financial Times by Global Insight, a US-based consultancy. Its findings suggest British manufacturers are hardly heading for oblivion, contrary to the fashionable view of the UK as being little more than a giant hedge fund that no longer makes anything. Not only can the UK boast today that it is the world’s sixth-largest manufacturer, but the country looks set to remain in the top 10 as far out as 2025. Although it slips to ninth place by then, its share of global manufacturing value added, measured in nominal dollar terms, will dip just one percentage point, from 3.3 per cent this year to 2.3 per cent in 2025 – not too disastrous.

Meanwhile, news that China will next year – four years earlier than the consultancy predicted just 12 months ago – be restored to its one-time position as the world’s pre-eminent manufacturing power and topple the US from a perch it has occupied for the past 100 years, is perhaps less surprising than the relatively poor projected performance of India’s manufacturers. For a country that likes to be bracketed with China and one that will be acutely reliant on labour-intensive manufacturing to provide jobs for its fast-expanding population, the outlook is not reassuring. India looks unlikely to rival China for the title of the world’s workshop anytime soon. Whereas China’s share of global manufacturing value added is set to jump from 15 per cent in 2008 to 34.7 per cent in 2025, a level at which it will be more than three times larger than that of the US, India’s share will remain under 4 per cent. One small consolation for New Delhi’s seemingly complacent policymakers: India will at least by then have overtaken the UK.

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BAE may gain from new Saudi Typhoon order

By Sylvia Pfeifer and Stephen Fidler

Published: August 10 2008 17:09 | Last updated: August 10 2008 17:09

Saudi Arabia has begun discussions to buy a second batch of Eurofighter Typhoons in what could lead to another multi-billion pound order for BAE Systems.

The Saudi Royal Air Force already has 72 Typhoons on order from the UK government under an agreement signed last September and which are being built by BAE, Britain’s largest arms contractor.

The Gulf kingdom could buy as many as 72 more of the multi-role aircraft, an adviser to the Saudi government confirmed on Sunday night.

Negotiations on the new deal have been under way for several months but defence industry sources said they had been accelerated in the wake of a decision by the House of Lords last month on alleged bribery involving an earlier arms deal with Saudi Arabia.

The Lords ruled the Serious Fraud Office had been right to drop its investigation into alleged bribery involving the £43bn Al-Yamamah arms deal signed between Britain and Saudi Arabia in 1985. Under the deal BAE, as the main contractor, provided Tornado aircraft and valuable support and maintenance.

The deal has been dogged by controversy, although BAE has always denied any wrongdoing.

A second Eurofighter deal could ease the budget crisis that has engulfed the Ministry of Defence. The department is committed to taking delivery of another 88 aircraft from the third production run under the contract with the four-nation consortium that makes the aircraft.

The four nations – Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain – have been locked in difficult negotiations for months over this third tranche.

The UK has asked for pricing options from industry covering the purchase of fewer aircraft or none at all, but both options would incur a financial penalty. Diverting some of the third tranche of aircraft to Saudi Arabia, however, could help ease the MoD’s budget problems.

The initial 72 aircraft order, known as Project Salam, was worth £4.3bn for the aircraft, with the contract value likely to grow to £20bn once support and maintenance are included. The second deal could be worth a similar amount.

BAE said: “Saudi Arabia is a customer with which we have a long and valued relationship and, like all our valued customers, we will continue to support its requirements as and when they arise.”

The MoD said it had “no knowledge of any further requirement for Typhoon aircraft for Saudi Arabia”.

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Currency traders

Published: August 10 2008 19:06 | Last updated: August 10 2008 19:31

Is this the end of the carry trade as we know it? Currency traders seem to think so. The practice of borrowing in low-yielding yen and buying high-yielding “commodity currencies” has long been a central feature of foreign exchange markets. Now it appears to be unwinding. The Aussie dollar dropped more than 4 per cent against the US dollar last week, a huge move by any standards. The Canadian dollar fell by almost as much. Emerging market currencies that are treated as commodity proxies – such as the Brazilian real or Russian dollar – have been hit too.

A tale of four currenciesTwo forces appear to be at work. The first is the rising US dollar – against almost everything. This has been driven, in part, by falling interest rate differentials as the US economic slowdown spreads to the rest of the world. Jean-Claude Trichet’s suggestion that the European Central Bank was not about to raise eurozone interest rates shaved two cents off the euro on Friday. Sterling also fell as much and as fast. In addition, foreign investors remain keen US buyers. The country has attracted over a third of global cross-border M&A flows this year, according to Lehman Brothers, its highest share in a decade. Finally, the dollar is fundamentally cheap. Based on real exchange rates, it hasn’t been this cheap since 1995.

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America’s decline will not be easily reversed

By Byron Wien

Published: August 10 2008 19:45 | Last updated: August 10 2008 19:45

Having grown up in an America where the opportunities seemed endless, I am dismayed at how optimism seems to have diminished among our younger people. To understand how we got into this position, it might be useful to go back to 1933. During that year the US was in a deep recession and Hitler came into power in Germany. Thousands of European intellectuals, Jewish and otherwise, left Europe and came to the US, adding considerably to the scientific strength of this country. War broke out in 1939 and over the next six years Europe was flattened and Asian industrial cities were considerably damaged. The continental US built up its manufacturing capability to fight the war and was untouched by enemy bombs during the conflict.

In 1945, the US was clearly the world’s leader militarily, economically and politically. Its universities were pre-eminent and its cultural life was enriched by the migration of Europeans during the previous decade. This position of leadership lasted 35 years until 1980. It received a boost from Russia’s launching of a space satellite, Sputnik, in 1957. This was a shock because Russia’s scientific prowess was not taken seriously at the time. The US committed to putting a man on the moon in the next decade. Government funding for space research expanded and the objective was met.

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Climate change threat to Brazil’s soya exports

By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo

Published: August 10 2008 22:55 | Last updated: August 10 2008 22:55

Brazil’s soya exports could slump by more than a quarter over the next 12 years as a result of climate change, according to a study to be presented at an agribusiness conference opening in São Paulo on Monday.

The study will add to concern over worsening food shortages around the world. It shows that even moderate rises in temperatures would cause significant damage to a range of agricultural produce in Brazil, which has emerged over the past decade as one of the world’s biggest suppliers of food crops.

By 2020, the study says, the value of six of Brazil’s food crops – rice, coffee, beans, manioc, maize and soya – could fall by between 6.5bn reals ($4bn, €2.7bn, £2bn) and 7.1bn reals if average temperatures rose by between 1ºC and 2ºC.

“The result will be a significant drop in Brazil’s farm exports,” Hilton Silveira Pinto, one of the report’s authors, told the Financial Times.

The study is based on models of climate change developed at the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and applied at local level to all of Brazil 5,562 municipalities by researchers at Unicamp, a university at Campinas in São Paulo state, and Embrapa, a Brazilian ­government agricultural research institute.

It takes account of different rates of temperature change in different parts of Brazil under best and worst-case scenarios that would result in average temperature rises by 2020 of between 1ºC and 2ºC from a baseline of average temperatures between 1961 and 1990. In parts of Brazil, such as in the rich agricultural hinterland of São Paulo state, temperatures have already risen by about 1ºC since then, said Prof Pinto.

The most serious damage would be to soya, he said. The amount of land suitable for soya cultivation would fall by more than 21 per cent under the best-case scenario, which assumes that action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and by almost 24 per cent if emissions continue at present rates.

This would result in a loss of 11.3m tons of soya from current production of 52.4m tons under the best-case scenario. Brazil last year exported about 38.5m tons of soya beans, meal and oil. Assuming that the Brazilian government maintains its policy of exporting only what is excess to domestic consumption, the study implies a drop in exports by 2020 of at least 29 per cent.

In contrast, the amount of sugar cane could increase dramatically, as it thrives in high temperatures and in atmospheres rich in carbon dioxide, one of the main greenhouse gases.

Prof Pinto stressed that the report was based on the most advanced crop varieties planted in Brazil and said damage could be mitigated by the development of new strains resistant to higher temperatures. However, he warned that few crops would withstand average temperature rises of more than 2ºC.

The study considered the impact of climate change up to 2050 and 2070, showing a fall in the value of the six crops of 9.3bn reals and 11bn reals, respectively, under the best-case scenario. However, Prof Pinto said predictions beyond 2050 were unreliable.

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Call for increase in water bills

By Rebecca Bream, Utilities Correspondent

Published: August 11 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 11 2008 03:00

Water companies in England and Wales will today argue that water bills need to rise, adding to the strain on cash-strapped consumers, as they put forward their spending plans for the next five years to Ofwat, the industry regulator.

Water and sewerage bills are set by Ofwat every five years, and with rising energy bills causing public and political concern the regulator will be under pressure to keep increases to a minimum.

Water companies, however, will argue that bills need to rise to pay for a backlog of maintenance work, such as replacing leaky water mains.

They will also say that the consequences of climate change will push up bills because companies need to spend more on things such as flood defences and switching to processes that are less energy-intensive.

Thames Water, the UK's biggest water company, will say today that it needs to spend £6.5bn between 2010 and 2015 - the largest investment programme for a UK water company.

This would cause bills to rise by about 3 per cent above inflation each year, says Thames.

The 24 water companies in England and Wales have until today to submit their draft business plans for the 2010 to 2015 regulatory period to Ofwat, marking the start of a long negotiation process that will culminate in a decision on bills next November.

Water and sewerage bills have risen in real terms by 44 per cent since the industry was privatised in 1989 to an average annual charge of £330 per household, £157 for water and £174 for sewerage.

The regulatory settlements have been erratic. Ofwat told companies to cut their bills by an average of 1.6 per cent, excluding inflation, during the 2000-05 period, however, for 2005-10 the regulator swung the other way, raising bills by 4.2 per cent on average.

While Ofwat is likely to agree that water companies need to invest heavily, the crux of the negotiations will be how much profit the companies should be allowed to make and how much to allow for financing costs, as much of the work will be paid for with debt.

During the past five years water companies have been able to borrow at lower rates than those assumed by Ofwat in the last price settlement, creating a windfall profit for the companies and provoking criticism from MPs and consumer groups.

The regulator will be wary of making this mistake again and is likely to set a lower cost of capital this time round.

However, several companies are arguing that this would not be a wise move because of the credit crunch.

Mike McKeon, finance director of Severn Trent, says the cost of debt has risen in the past year and if it stays high, water companies may not be able to finance their spending plans.

"A number of the markets in which water companies used to borrow money, such as index-linked bonds and commercial paper, have actually closed down. The availability of finance is a bigger risk than the cost," he said.

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Dollar at crossroads amid brighter US outlook

By Peter Garnham in London

Published: August 10 2008 18:55 | Last updated: August 10 2008 18:55

This week will be crucial in determining whether the dollar has broken free from its six-year downward trend, as speculation mounts that the US is in the best position to emerge quickly from the economic downturn.

The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of six major currencies, put in its best performance for over three-and-a-half years last week and boosted the dollar to its highest level for four months.

Against the euro, the dollar surged more than 5 cents, taking it more than 6 per cent higher than the low it hit last month.

Amid thin August volumes, traders believe there will be impetus to push the euro-dollar rate below the $1.50 barrier from its Friday figure of $1.5014 and to send sterling-dollar towards $1.90, consolidating last week’s 2.9 per cent fall to $1.9189.

Analysts say the turn towards the dollar reflects surprise that the fallout from the credit crisis has had such a marked effect on economies outside the US.

They say other central banks, unlike the Federal Reserve, have been slow to respond to a potential slowdown, refusing to cut interest rates as they focus on fighting inflation.

However, Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, warned of a slowdown in the eurozone in the coming months, quashing expectations of higher interest rates.

The trend is expected to be confirmed by data from Germany this week, which is forecast to show that growth contracted in the second quarter.

Japanese officials have warned that the economy is heading for recession, while UK data continue to deteriorate and the Reserve Bank of Australia has said it is set to cut interest rates.

Ulrich Leuchtmann at Commerzbank said in a note he expected the dollar to rise “like a phoenix”. He said low US interest rates were not a burden on the dollar but an attraction, proof that the Federal Reserve was able to react quicker to turmoil than other central banks.

He said that in a very short period, “sentiment turned by 180 degrees – the market now believes that the US economy once again will be able to leave a crisis behind very quickly”.

David Deddouche at Société Générale believes a wider adjustment is taking place that will send the dollar higher.

He said the decoupling theory pushed the dollar down to multi-year lows. “We believe this is one of the weakest assumptions embedded in the pricing of financial assets,” he said.

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Australia's central bank says economic growth slowing
AFP
AFP - 1 hour 36 minutes ago

SYDNEY (AFP) - Australia's central bank Monday said domestic demand was slowing significantly, leading it to cut its economic growth forecasts for the year and increasing the prospect of a fall in interest rates.
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In a quarterly statement on monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said it expected the economy to grow at 2.0 percent in the year ended December 2008, down from its previous forecast of 2.25 percent.

"The evidence to date is that a significant moderation in demand is now occurring, and it is looking more likely that demand will remain subdued, and economic growth will be fairly slow, in the period ahead," it said.

The bank said the slowdown would cool inflationary pressures over time, increasing the possibility of a domestic interest rate cut for the first time since 2001.

But it said it expected inflation to remain high in the short term and gave no indication of when it might lower rates from their current 12-year-high of 7.25 percent.

The RBA said underlying inflation, its preferred measure, was expected to be at 4.5 percent by the end of 2008, up from the previous estimate of 4.0 percent.

But the bank said it expected inflation to ease over the next two years and drop to within its target range of 2.0 to 3.0 percent by 2010.

"While inflation is likely to remain high in the short term, the board judged at its August meeting that demand was slowing to an extent that could be expected to bring about a significant reduction in inflation over time," the statement said.

The bank said while the board determined that the existing monetary policy setting was appropriate for the time being, on the assumption that subdued demand conditions continue, "scope to move to a less restrictive monetary policy stance in the period ahead is increasing."

RBA governor Glenn Stevens said last Tuesday that earlier interest rate hikes combined with tougher credit standards, rising fuel costs and lower asset values, had restrained demand considerably since mid-2007.

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Iraq, China ready to revive major oil deal
AFP
AFP - Sunday, August 10 08:11 pm

BAGHDAD (AFP) - Iraq's oil ministry said Sunday it plans to resurrect a major oil deal with China that fell apart amid crippling United Nations sanctions and the aftermath of the 2003 US-led invasion.
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Oil minister Hussein Al-Shahristani met with Chinese ambassador Chang Yi to revive the 1997 contract that granted China exploration rights to the Al-Ahdab oil field in the province of Wassit, just south of Baghdad.

"Iraq and China are concerned with completing the agreement to develop Ahdab oil field," a statement from the Iraqi oil ministry said.

The construction of a power station in the province's Al-Najibia was also discussed, Assim Jihad, a spokesman for the ministry told AFP, adding that an Iraqi delegation would travel to China in the next few days to work on the terms.

After China won exploration rights to the al-Ahdab field in 1997, in a deal then valued at 700 million dollars over 23 years, activities were suspended due to UN sanctions and postwar security problems.

Planned oil production was 90,000 barrels per day. State-run China National Petroleum Corp had been expected to win the new exploration rights.

The meeting in Baghdad came after Iraq announced Friday that it was resuming exploration of its immense oil reserves after a break of nearly 20 years.

Iraq wants to ramp up output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the current average production of 2.5 million bpd, about equal to the amount being pumped before the US-led invasion of March 2003.

At the end of June, the oil ministry threw open six oilfields and two gas fields for international bidding by 41 companies, the contracts for which are expected to be signed in June next year.

The deals, which are service contracts only, pave the way for energy firms based abroad to return to Iraq, 36 years after Saddam Hussein threw them out.

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Jordan, Shell in talks to extract oil from huge shale reserves
AFP
AFP - Sunday, August 10 07:50 pm

AMMAN (AFP) - Energy-poor Jordan said on Sunday it was in talks with Anglo-Dutch group Royal Dutch Shell on an agreement to extract oil from the desert kingdom's 40-billion-tonne oil shale reserves.
(Advertisement)

"Negotiations with Shell to sign a deal to process oil shale in Jordan are nearing an end," said Maher Hjazin, head of the state-run Natural Resources Authority.

"If our plans succeed, it would be one of the country's largest projects to help the Jordan become energy self-sufficient, with a possibility to export oil in the future."

Jordan, which imports 95 per cent of its energy needs and struggling to meet growing needs, has the world's fourth largest reserves of oil shale, from which petroleum can be extracted by distillation.

Hjazin told the Jordan Engineers Association (JEA) that Estonia's state-owned energy company Eesti Energia has completed a feasibility study for plans to produce 36,000 barrels a day of oil from oil shale.

Estonia produces all its energy from oil shale reserves in the Baltic state.

"Costs for such plans are estimated at six billion dollars," Hjazin was quoted by the state-run Petra news agency as saying at a meeting with the engineers.

To extract oil from oil shale, the underground rock must first be heated to extremely high temperatures, and this allows hydrocarbons to be released, after which they must be pumped to the surface for processing.

JEA president Wael Saqqa said exploiting the 40-billion-tonne oil shale reserves in 26 areas of Jordan "would provide the kingdom with oil for the coming 700 years."

The kingdom was entirely dependent on Iraq for its oil before the 2003 toppling of Saddam Hussein, importing 5.5 million tonne a year by road, half of it free of charge and the rest at preferential rates.

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Azerbaijan halts oil exports via Georgia ports: state oil firm
AFP
AFP - Saturday, August 9 10:06 pm

BAKU (AFP) - Azerbaijan has halted oil exports via the Georgian ports of Batumi and Kulevi due to clashes between Russia and Georgia, the head of the state oil company said Saturday.
(Advertisement)

"Since last night the import and export of oil through the Georgian ports of Kulevi and Batumi have been halted," said Rovnag Abdullayev, the head of the Azeri state oil company SOCAR, in televised comments.

"This is due to armed actions in the area of the Georgia-Ossetia conflict."

He added that SOCAR was "looking into the possibility of exporting oil through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, but the capacity of this pipeline is quite low," in a reference to a route that links the Azerbaijani capital to the Russian Black Sea Coast.

Earlier Saturday Russian planes staged a raid near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a major international oil route that runs through Georgia, but did not damage it, Georgia's prime minister said.

In recent years Georgia has become an important transport route for oil from Azerbaijan and other Caspian Sea oil producers, allowing Western oil firms to bypass Russia's oil pipelines.

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町工場や商店、事業主60歳以上が７割　「後継者いる」２割前後

　町工場や商店など個人企業の高齢化が深刻化している。総務省がまとめた2007年の個人企業経済調査によると、事業主の年齢が60歳以上の個人企業は、製造業と卸・小売業で調査を始めた01年以来初めて7割を超えた。後継者がいると答えた個人企業は2割前後にとどまり、若い世代への事業の継承も難しくなっている姿も浮き彫りになった。

　同調査は個人商店や地域の印刷所など、法人格を持たない個人経営の事業所の経営実態を把握する経済統計。全国の個人企業は約286万あり、調査はこのうち約4000カ所を抽出して実施した。

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年金受給額、物価上昇でも据え置き　来年度

　物価上昇の局面にもかかわらず、厚生労働省は公的年金の受給額を来年度予算の概算要求段階では据え置きを前提とする方針を固めた。過去の物価下落時に年金額を下げなかった特例分を差し引かなければならないうえ、物価の上昇ほど年金額を増やさない「マクロ経済スライド」と呼ぶ調整が働くためだ。ただ、与党内には年金生活者への配慮を求める声もあり、決定までには曲折も予想される。

　公的年金は原則として毎年1月、前年平均の全国消費者物価指数（生鮮食品を含む）を反映し、4月以降の受給額を決めている。2008年度の受給額は07 年平均の消費者物価が横ばいだったため、07年度と同じ水準に据え置いた。基礎年金を含む厚生年金の夫婦2人分の標準的な年金額は月23万2592円だ。

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非製造業の海外進出加速　07年度　対外投資35％増加

　流通や運輸、通信など非製造業の海外投資が加速している。2007年度の対外直接投資額は約4兆3000億円と前年度に比べて35％増え、投資残高も約 28兆円（07年末）に膨らんだ。国内の需要停滞で小売業などがアジアで拠点を増やしたほか、天然ガスなどの資源開発も進んだ。ただ、新興国ではサービス業などの外資規制が厳しく、収益につなげるには通商交渉による投資の自由化も欠かせない。

　財務省・日銀の国際収支統計によると、非製造業の対外直接投資額は07年度、4兆3396億円だった。直接投資は海外子会社への出資や企業買収など事業目的の投資のこと。非製造業の投資額はバブル期には不動産投資などで年間6兆円を超えたが、05年度は2兆円を下回る水準に落ち込んでいた。少子高齢化で国内市場が頭打ちとなり、内需型産業が新興国に活路を求めているのが特徴だ。

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証券優遇税制の拡充、金融相も「議論する」

　茂木敏充金融担当相は10日、ＮＨＫの討論番組に出演し、自民党の麻生太郎幹事長が打ち出した証券優遇税制の拡充に関連し、「税のバランスを考える中で様々な議論をしていきたい」と述べ、検討課題の1つとの認識を示した。経済対策については「補正予算を組まなくてもやれることはある。（その後で）必要性を判断したい」と語った。

　茂木金融相は番組終了後、記者団に対し、「日本には1500兆円の個人金融資産があるが、貯蓄に偏っている。『貯蓄から投資へ』という流れをつくるのに、（麻生氏の意見は）貴重な提案だ」と述べた。金融庁の税制改正要望に盛り込むかどうかは決めていないとしながらも、「景気の状況を考えると、相当大胆な対策が必要だ」と指摘した。

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昭和電工、カセイソーダ再値上げ　9月から3割強

　昭和電工は11日、パルプの漂白などに使うカセイソーダについて取引先と値上げ交渉を始めたと発表した。9月1日出荷分から、1キログラムあたり20円以上の引き上げを目指す。値上げ率は30―35％程度という。同社は2007年12月にもカセイソーダを値上げしているが、原油高騰が続き製造・輸送コストがいっそう増加していることから再値上げに踏み切る。

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曲がった壁、低コストで建設　大成建設が技術開発

　大成建設は曲がったり、ねじれたりしたデザイン性の高い壁面を低コストで実現できる建築施工技術を開発した。同社が請け負った沖縄県内のホテル建設工事でこの技術を初めて採用。デザイン性を重視する建築物用に今後、売り込んでいく。

　3次元ＣＡＤ（コンピューターによる設計）の普及を背景に、ファッション専門店用のビルや美術館などに曲面を使った奇抜なデザインを採用する建築物が増えている。設計図通りに施工できているのかを建設現場で確認するため、これまでは分銅を垂らした「下げ振り」と呼ばれる手法を活用していたが、人手がかかるため建設費が高くつく難点があった。

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マツキヨ、雑貨専門店参入　５年で100店舗目指す

　ドラッグストア最大手のマツモトキヨシは雑貨専門店に参入する。医薬品を一切取り扱わず、化粧品と美容雑貨を中心にした店舗で、年内に1号店を開業し、 5年後に100店に拡大する。食品や日用品の安売りで急成長を遂げたドラッグストア業界だが、規制緩和による新規参入で主力とする医薬品販売を巡る競争が今後激化する見通し。マツキヨは女性の需要が根強い化粧品や美容雑貨の分野を強化し、環境激変に備える。

　新型店の名称からは安売りのイメージが強い「マツモトキヨシ」の文字を外し、安売り販売もしない方針だ。全国主要都市の駅ビルやショッピングセンター、百貨店などの商業施設にチェーン展開し、5年後に年商400億円をめざす。

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出光、石化原料に生産シフト　千葉製油所を改造

　出光興産は千葉製油所（千葉県市原市）の設備を改造、需要が減退する重油の生産を減らし、石油化学品の原料となるプロピレンを増産できるようにする。投資額は約160億円。原油高や環境問題に対応するため、紙パやセメントなどの素材産業では燃料を重油からガスなどに代える動きが加速している。出光はこうした需要構造の変化に対応、原油高で事業環境が厳しい製油所の収益力を高める狙いだ。

　原油精製工程の1つで、触媒を使って石油製品を造り出す接触分解装置の反応塔を更新。2011年に稼働させる。

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丸紅、カタールで下水処理関連設備を400億円で受注

　丸紅はカタールで大型下水処理施設の送水管敷設とポンプ場の建設工事を受注した。受注額は約400億円。原油高を追い風に経済成長が続く中東産油国ではインフラ需要が急拡大。丸紅は今回の受注を足がかりに同地域でのインフラ需要の開拓を加速したい考えだ。

　発注元はカタール公共事業省。現在、同省がドーハ市の北側郊外に下水処理施設を建設している。丸紅は2011年までに、市内の排水を集約して同施設に送るためのポンプ場と送水管、処理済みの水を灌漑（かんがい）用に市内に戻す送水管を整備する。

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またテロ発生、北京は米国人殺害…自爆攻撃打つ手なし

　中国新疆ウイグル自治区でまたもテロが起き、容疑者１０人を含む１１人が死亡した。北京の観光名所では米国人を殺害した容疑者が自殺、五輪開催中の中国は連日、致命的な事件に見舞われているが、自分の命を顧みない“自爆攻撃”に当局は防御の手立てを失っている。厳戒態勢にあった自治区内の公安局や北京の外国人が狙われただけに胡錦濤政権の衝撃は計り知れない。

　中国国営新華社通信によると、自治区中部のクチャで１０日午前２時半ごろ、武装グループ１５人が手製の爆発物を積んだ三輪バイクに乗って公安局と工商管理事務所などに突入、警察車両２台を爆破した。計１２回の爆発があり、警備員１人が死亡、警官ら４人が負傷した。警察側は銃で応戦し、容疑者８人を射殺、２人を拘束したが、２人が自爆した。残る３人の行方を追っている。

　事件を取材中の産経新聞と時事通信の記者ら３人が一時拘束された。

　自治区では４日、カシュガルで警官１６人が殺害される襲撃事件があり、解放軍の駐留拠点でもあるクチャは厳戒態勢下にあった。香港紙は容疑者に２０歳前後の女性が多数含まれていたと報じており、ウイグル人を対象にした当局の掃討作戦で追い込まれたメンバーが計画性の低い自爆テロに出た可能性が高い。

　北京の観光名所「鼓楼」では９日、米バレーボール代表コーチの親族男性が男（４７）に刺殺される事件が起きた。北京市内は警察の精鋭１１万人のほか、市民ボランティアを加えると１５０万人の警備体制にあったが、五輪開幕翌日に胡政権が最も懸念していた外国人の犠牲者を出す事態を招いた。

　香港メディアによると、男は杭州で自宅を失い、失業。立ち退き問題で陳情を繰り返していたという。北京当局は五輪を前に陳情者の押さえ込みを図っていたが、男は「社会に恨みを抱いていた」と供述。強硬策が男を自暴自棄的犯行に走らせた可能性がある。米ブッシュ大統領は哀悼の意を表明、五輪開幕当日のロシアとグルジアの開戦と並び、胡政権は国際社会への面目を失った形だ。

　クチャの襲撃、米国人殺害ともに「どこを狙われれば、五輪開催中の政権の大打撃となるか」はからずも内外に示す結果となった。

　北京五輪組織委の王偉執行副会長は「五輪に影響を与えるものではない」と会見で繰り返したが、権力に不満を持つ大衆への事件の飛び火を恐れたためか、中国は両事件についての国内向けの報道を抑制している。

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インド代理出産：元妻が反論「代理出産には不同意」

　日本人の男性医師がインドで代理出産を依頼し生まれた女児が日本に帰国できなくなっている問題で、男性医師の元妻が毎日新聞の取材に応じ「代理出産に同意していなかった」などと話した。

　元妻によると、インドで代理出産の書類に署名させられたが、読む時間を与えられないまま署名を迫られ、後で同意書と知らされた。その後、子供が男性医師と自分との子であるよう装う出生証明書の偽装のため再渡航を求められたが断ったという。元妻は離婚の際「代理出産は私の意思とは無関係」と医師に書面で誓約させたと話している。

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14:03 GMT, Saturday, 9 August 2008 15:03 UK
Eat kangaroo to 'save the planet'
Baby kangaroo and mother

Switching from beef to kangaroo burgers could significantly help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, says an Australian scientist.

The methane gas produced by sheep and cows through belching and flatulence is more potent than carbon dioxide in the damage it can cause to the environment.

But kangaroos produce virtually no methane because their digestive systems are different.

Dr George Wilson, of the Australian Wildlife Services, urges farming them.

He says they have a different set of micro-organisms in their guts to cows and sheep.

Sheep and cattle account for 11% of Australia's carbon footprint and over the years, there have been various proposals to deal with the problem.

Now Dr Wilson believes kangaroos might hold the answer.

He said: "It tastes excellent, not unlike venison - only a different flavour."

The country already produces 30 million kangaroos farmed by landholders in the outback.

But Dr Wilson is keen to see that population dramatically increased to produce the same amount of kangaroo meat as that currently produced by conventional livestock.

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仏政府、国民の肥満解消へ甘いものに増税か

　フランス政府が税制の見直しによる国民の肥満解消を検討している。菓子、ジュースといった糖分の高い食品の消費税を上げて消費を抑え込むよう誘導する考えだ。ただ、税率変更でどれだけ効果があるかは不明な上、にわかにやり玉に挙がった食品会社やファストフードチェーンなどから反発が出るのは必至。実現までには曲折がありそうだ。

　仏経済紙レゼコーによると、厚生相や予算相が7月末までに報告書をまとめた。報告書は「脂肪分が多かったり、甘すぎたり、塩分が濃すぎたりする食品」について、日本の消費税にあたる付加価値税で軽減税率ではなく通常税率（19.6％）を用いるよう提案した。

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太平洋セメの４―６月期、最終赤字86億円　需要低迷響く

　太平洋セメントが11日発表した2008年４―６月期連結決算は、最終損益が86億円の赤字（前年同期は27億円の黒字）となった。原燃料の石炭の価格高騰が響いた。セメントの販売価格引き上げを進めたが、国内、北米ともにセメント需要が大幅に減少し利益を確保できなかった。

　４―６月期の売上高は2023億円と10％減った。国内セメント販売数量は前年同期に比べ16％減少し404万トンとなった。公共事業向けが低調に推移したうえ、けん引役だった民需向けも昨年６月に施行された改正建築基準法の影響で需要回復が遅れている。国内では４月以降、セメント販売価格の改定を進めたが、数量の減少分を補いきれなかった。営業損益は13億円の赤字（同109億円の黒字）だった。

　通期の業績見通しは売上高が前期比１％増の9350億円、純利益が51％減の100億円の予想を変更しなかった。下期に向けて需要が回復するほか、セメント値上げの効果が出てくると見ている。

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国家公務員の給与据え置き　医師は１１％の特別改善　　人事院勧告 (1/2ページ)
2008.8.11 17:58

　人事院は１１日、国家公務員一般職の平成２１年度の給与とボーナス（期末・勤勉手当）を改定せず、現行水準のまま維持するよう国会と内閣に勧告した。据え置きは、１８年の勧告以来２年ぶり。ただ、国の医療機関などに勤務する医師については、民間病院や国立病院機構などとの給与格差が大きいとして、平均約１１％の特別改善を求めた。

　今年度の勧告を行うに当たって人事院は、前年度より約９００企業増やし、１万１０００の民間企業の約４４万人を調査。その結果、４月時点での民間企業と国家公務員の月給格差は（０.０４％、１３６円）とほぼゼロに近く、１年間のボーナスの支給月数も４.５０カ月で均衡していたため、人事院は改定を見送った。勧告通りに実施されると、平均月給は３８万７５０６円（平均年齢４１.１歳）、ボーナスは年間４.５０カ月のまま。

　今回、唯一、引き上げるよう求めた国の医療機関などに勤務する医師については、（１）医師不足が社会問題化する中、国の医療機関でも医師の確保が難しくなっている（２）年間給与格差が、民間病院とは約２６０万円、国立病院機構とも約１３０万円と、大きく下回っている－ことから、特別改善を求めた。国の医師の給与の改善は、昭和３５年の初任給調整手当制度発足以来の大幅なもの。改善されれば、国の医療機関や刑務所の勤務医など約１３００人の年間給与が平均約１１％、約１２７万円アップし、国立病院機構並みになる。

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中国核実験４６回　ウイグル人医師が惨状訴え　　 (1/3ページ)
2008.8.11 17:01
中国での核実験被害を告発するウイグル人医師、アニワル氏（撮影・原川貴郎）中国での核実験被害を告発するウイグル人医師、アニワル氏（撮影・原川貴郎）

　広島市で原爆死没者慰霊式・平和祈念式典に参列するため来日した中国・新疆ウイグル自治区出身の外科医アニワル・トフティ氏は都内で産経新聞と会見し、核実験で汚染された同自治区の実態を語るとともに、中国の五輪開催に抗議した。アニワル氏の証言の詳細は次の通り。

後遺症の恐怖

　中国は１９６４年１０月以来、私たちの土地で４６回にわたって核実験を実施してきましたが、この事実はまだまだ知られていません。区都ウルムチの病院の腫瘍（しゆよう）専門外科に勤務していた私はあるとき、病床に占めるウイグル人の割合が極めて大きいことに気付きました。そして調査・分析したところ、ウイグル人の悪性腫瘍の発生率が、中国の他の地域の漢人と比べて、３５％も高いことが判明したのです。さらに漢人でも、新疆ウイグル自治区に３０年以上住んでいる人は、悪性腫瘍発生率がウイグル人と同程度に高いことが分かりました。

　英国のテレビ局のドキュメンタリー番組に協力し、取材で潜入した先々では、放射能汚染の影響とみられる数々の悲惨な光景を目の当たりにしました。

　南新疆では、内臓異常で腹やのどなどが肥大化した人が大勢いる村がありましたし、先天性異常の大脳未発達で、歩くことも話すこともできない障害児ばかりが生まれる村もありました。また、ある山で木を切って調べたところ、広島に投下された原爆の３００倍もの放射性の反応が出ました。

　しかし、中国は核実験による放射能汚染や後遺症の存在を認めていません。海外の医療団体などが調査に立ち入ることもできず、すべてが隠蔽（いんぺい）されているのです。

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輸入小麦価格２０％アップへ、昨年４月以来４回連続値上げ

　農林水産省は１０日、政府が製粉会社に売り渡す輸入小麦の価格を、１０月から２０％程度引き上げる方向で検討に入った。８月下旬に発表する。

　２００７年４月、１０月、０８年４月に続き４回連続の値上げとなり、パンやめん類など小麦製品の店頭価格へも影響を与えそうだ。

　日本は小麦の約９割を海外に依存しており、輸入小麦のほぼ全量を政府が輸入して製粉会社に売り渡す仕組みだ。１０月からの売り渡し価格は、０７年１２月～０８年７月の輸入価格を反映させることになっている。

　小麦の国際価格が昨年末から今春にかけてピークを付けたため、政府の輸入価格は従来より２０～２５％上昇している。

　製粉会社への売り渡し価格は０７年４月に１・３％、１０月に１０％、今年４月に３０％、それぞれ上がり、現在は１トン当たり６万９０００円だ。これまでに、レストランなどで使う業務用の小麦粉や食パン、カップめん、スパゲティなど幅広い食品で店頭価格への転嫁が広がっている。