Libor on the rise amid banking stress

Libor on the rise amid banking stress

By Michael Mackenzie in New York

Published: August 18 2008 19:21 | Last updated: August 18 2008 19:21

The key rate at which banks lend to each other in dollars hit its highest level in two months on Monday, suggesting there could be more turbulence ahead for the financial system.

The three-month dollar London interbank offered rate reached 2.81 per cent, a level not seen since mid-June. Libor remains particularly elevated when compared with the official overnight rate – the Federal funds rate – of 2 per cent. The difference of 81 basis points between Libor and the Fed funds rate compares with an average spread of about 12bp that prevailed before the onset of the credit squeeze last year.

“There is still stress in the system,” said George Goncalves, strategist at Morgan Stanley. “Libor is creeping up, and banks are still restructuring their balance sheets.”

The rise in the money-market benchmark for loans and derivatives is occurring even though expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike have been declining in the past two months.

When Libor was previously set at 2.81 per cent, investors were expecting the Fed would raise its overnight rate to nearly 3 per cent by the end of the year. Now, investors expect a funds rate of about 2.10 per cent by year-end.

“There has been a reassessment of Fed expectations and they are now seen keeping rates steady,” Mr Goncalves said.

This indicates that credit tensions are weighing on money-market rates, say traders.

“A year’s worth of tightening credit is only now being felt,” said Tobias Levkovich, chief US equity strategist at Citi.

Further evidence emerged last week that banks were scrambling to raise short-term funds. Concerns about banks’ health have made it harder and more expensive for them to access short-term funds.

Reflecting this, demand for funds from the Fed’s term auction facility (TAF), introduced as a prop to the banking system, attracted strong demand. Similarly, European banks flocked to the European Central Bank for dollar funds.

Banks’ funding needs usually increase in the third and fourth quarters. Pressure last December prompted the Fed to provide greater lending facilities. Mr Goncalves said a sudden surge in Libor could lead to an expansion of the $150bn TAF programme.

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Russia threatens to crush any attack

By Isabel Gorst in Moscow and Quentin Peel in London

Published: August 18 2008 19:56 | Last updated: August 18 2008 19:56

Russia’s president, Dmitry Medvedev, has threatened a “crushing response” to any future attack on Russian citizens as the US and Georgia continued to dispute Moscow’s claims that its troops were withdrawing.

Georgia and its western allies accused Russia on Monday of continuing to destroy military and civilian infrastructure and paralysing the country’s transport network.

The claims came as the principal United Nations refugee agency said the country had been “practically cut in two” by a bridge’s destruction on the main east-west railway and roadblocks on major roads, delaying relief for thousands fleeing the fighting between Russian, Georgian and secessionist forces.

Oil exports by rail from Azerbaijan have also been suspended, according to the oil company BP, and forest fires have been reported in the Borjomi valley after Russian helicopter attacks.

Nato foreign ministers are due in Brussels on Tuesday for an emergency meeting on Georgia amid calls for a united and robust western response to Russia’s failure to respect Georgian territorial integrity.

On Monday, Mr Medvedev told second world war veterans in the north Russian port of Kursk: “If anyone thinks they can kill our citizens and escape unpunished, we will never allow this. If anyone tries this again, we will come out with a crushing response.”

In Moscow, Col-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian general staff, said: “The withdrawal of peacekeeping forces started today.” But he added: “We will not be leaving with such speed as when we entered.”

But the Georgian government said Russian forces were still advancing, with six tanks heading from the central city of Kashuri towards Sachkere, and six towards the Borjomi valley. Georgian reports claimed Russian forces were continuing to destroy the Senaki military base near the Black Sea and were still occupying the town of Gori.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported its officials had finally managed to enter Gori on Sunday after first being turned away by Russian troops. The agency reported that the town, which sits astride Georgia’s main east-west highway, was deserted, with signs of “massive looting”.

The UNHCR said there were an estimated 158,600 refugees inside and outside Georgia but logistical problems were delaying relief.

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Call for central bank harmony in crises

By Ralph Atkins and Haig Simonian in Zurich

Published: August 18 2008 23:33 | Last updated: August 18 2008 23:33

Emergency help provided by the world’s central banks should be better harmonised to stop large financial groups shopping around in future for the best deal, the head of Switzerland’s central bank has urged.

The possibility that greater integration of financial markets could one day lead to bigger banks going outside their home country for financial assistance when they are in trouble was raised by Jean-Pierre Roth, chairman of the Swiss National Bank, in an interview with the Financial Times.

His comments point to worries among central bankers that differences in the way they operate could result in cross-border “arbitrage” by the largest international banks. “We have to think about eliminating differences and co-ordinating more,” he said.

“It would be very delicate for us to have a Swiss bank that required a massive credit not knocking on our door, but knocking on the door somewhere else,” although this was just a “theoretical example”.

He said the policies on the collateral that central banks accepted when providing liquidity to financial markets was another area where greater harmonisation might be needed.

“If one central bank has more liberal rules, is that acceptable? Of course, everyone has to decide for themselves. But we have to think about integrated markets, international banks [and] common problems.”

He cited recent auctions of dollar liquidity – carried out by the SNB and European Central Bank in conjunction with the US Fed – as “an example of perfect co-ordination with the same conditions”. The latest auctions saw banks bidding for four times the $10bn (€7bn, £5bn) made available for 84-days by the ECB.

Asked if work was under way to co-ordinate central banks’ responses to emergencies, Mr Roth said: “No, but it is important to be aware of the question.”

Swiss banks have been among the worst affected by the global financial turmoil. But Mr Roth stressed the robustness of the Swiss banking system.

“In Switzerland, there has been no public intervention in the banking sector. The private sector was strong enough to solve the problems itself and is well capitalised. Although the problems have not disappeared, they are on the way to a cure.”

UBS, the world’s biggest wealth manager and Switzerland’s biggest bank, has had to write down $43bn on risky US credits since the credit crisis broke last year. The write-downs have pushed what was a watchword for prudence and profitability into loss and had a negative impact on Swiss finance.

The problems at UBS, and concerns about Credit Suisse, which has suffered lower losses but is also highly active in US investment banking, have led to calls for tougher controls on Swiss banks.

Mr Roth indicated he supported such moves and, questioned whether Swiss banks should be more strongly capitalised, replied: “From a central bank point of view, more is better than less.”

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A bully’s deserts

Published: August 18 2008 19:34 | Last updated: August 18 2008 19:34

Russia is deliberately flaunting its military might on the territory of its tiny neighbour and former colony, Georgia. Under the guise of “peacekeeping”, Russian tanks and troops have penetrated deep into the country and destroyed both civilian and military infrastructure. They have bombed the main railway line, and blocked the roads. Yesterday some were still advancing south, although Moscow insisted they were pulling back.

Russia’s behaviour has undermined the argument that it simply intervened for humanitarian purposes. President Dmitry Medvedev yesterday talked chillingly of a “crushing response” to any attack on its citizens. The clear message to Georgia, to other pro-western former Soviet republics such as Ukraine, and to the Nato alliance, is that Russia can behave as it will in its “near abroad”. It has overwhelming military force, and it is prepared to use it. The next target may well be Ukraine’s Crimea, where the Russian-speaking population could easily be persuaded to seek secession. Moscow wants its Black Sea base to be part of Russia, not rented from Ukraine.

When the foreign ministers of the Nato allies meet in emergency session to consider the situation in Brussels today, they need to find a robust and united response. It is essential that Moscow gets the message that its use of massive military force against an independent country on its border is not without consequences.

For a start, it would be quite wrong for Nato to back away from its promise that full membership is on offer to both Georgia and Ukraine. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, who opposed granting them both formal membership action plans at the Nato summit in Bucharest in April – at least in part for fear of infuriating Russia – rightly stated in Tbilisi at the weekend: “We are on a clear path in the direction of Nato membership.” Georgia also deserves massive help for refugees and reconstruction.

Georgia and Ukraine have every right to choose the international organisations to which they wish to belong. So has Russia. But Mr Medvedev, and his mentor Vladimir Putin, should realise that they must abide by the rules and the values of such organisations, as must the Georgians and Ukrainians.

It is time for the European Union and Nato to reconsider whether they can maintain partnership agreements with a country that is determined to treat them as hostile organisations. If Russia behaves like a bully, it will be treated as such. Both sides would be losers, but it is up to Moscow to choose.

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BP shuts oil pipeline in Georgia, supplies still get through

6 days ago

LONDON (AFP) — Energy giant BP announced Tuesday it had closed an oil pipeline because of fighting in Georgia but said oil and gas supplies continued to flow from the Caspian Sea to the West by other routes.

A BP spokesman confirmed the company had shut the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline in Georgia as a precaution, but said oil was still being transported to the Georgian Black Sea port of Batumi by train and through an Azeri-operated pipeline.

In terms of gas, BP corrected its earlier statement that supplies had been completely suspended through the South Caucasus pipeline, a major link which snakes from Baku in Azerbaijan into Georgia and to the Turkish border.

In fact, the spokesman told AFP, although gas was no longer being pumped into the pipeline, the high pressure inside meant supplies were still flowing through to Turkey.

"There is still some oil production from the Caspian and it is being exported through two other routes. One is a rail link from Baku to Batumi," the spokesman said.

"And the other link one is another pipeline known as the Northern Route and that is operated by the Azerbaijan national company Socar from Baku to Novorossisk." Novorossisk is the main Russian port on the Black Sea.

Regarding the South Caucasus gas pipeline, which is also known as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) link, the spokesman said: "What has been suspended as a precaution because of the problems in Georgia is the production of gas into the pipeline at Baku.

"But a gas pipeline is high pressure so you can still supply gas out the other end into Turkey even though you are not pumping gas into (it at) Baku and there is probably several days of supply still in Turkey."

Georgia is not an oil producer but its conflict with Russia has raised concerns in the oil market because the country is a key transit point for crude oil and gas exports from Azerbaijan to energy-hungry Western markets.

However, analysts played down the market impact of the news and argued that operations would likely resume quickly following Moscow's order to halt its military offensive in Georgia.

Supply from the region is already being affected by the closure of the world's second-longest pipeline, the key Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil link, which BP also operates.

It was shut last week after a blast in a pump at a section in eastern Turkey. The fire was extinguished on Monday.

"Although BP has halted oil shipments along smaller pipelines through Georgia as a precaution, the quantities of crude oil involved are relatively small and in any case may soon resume if Moscow's announcement this morning of a halt to military operations proves to be a step towards de-escalation," said Barclays Capital analyst Kevin Norrish.

"That is not to say that there are no important ramifications for the oil market from recent events in the Caucasus."

The Paris-based International Energy Agency warned earlier Tuesday that the conflict in Georgia threatened the strategic energy hub.

Norrish also warned that the Georgia-Russia crisis illustrated the high level of political risk attached to vital energy supply routes.

He said: "In the context of falling non-OPEC crude oil output from other parts of the world, this extra oil is vital.

"What has been highlighted over the past few days is that despite the careful routing of pipelines to avoid both Russia and the Middle East, it still comes with a very significant degree of political risk."

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Alert raises threat to Daimler’s independence

By Daniel Schäfer and John Reed

Published: August 18 2008 18:01 | Last updated: August 18 2008 18:01

German carmakers Daimler and BMW compete head to head in many areas, but there is at least one where Dieter Zetsche, Daimler’s chief executive, can clearly envy his rivals in Munich.

Unlike BMW, which has the Quandt family as controlling shareholders, the Stuttgart-based company is the only European carmaker that lacks an anchor investor who could, if called on, fend off unwanted advances from corporate raiders.

Since Daimler sold lossmaking Chrysler last year, Mr Zetsche has faced questions about how long the highly profitable maker of Mercedes and Smart cars and owner of the world’s largest truck group can remain independent.

The speculation has intensified in Germany recently following the audacious move by Schaeffler, the privately owned maker of ball bearings and car parts, to take over its larger rival Continental.

The flames were further fanned after Daimler warned on profits last month. Rising fuel prices and a grim outlook for the car industry have pushed its share price down by more than 45 per cent in the past 12 months, reducing its market value to €40bn ($58.8bn).

The collapse in value is taking place across the industry. General Motors, reporting widening financial losses amid a collapse in America’s large vehicles market, is worth barely $6bn.

It remains uncertain whether many investors have the stomach, or financial backing, for an investment in the auto industry as it weathers a downturn in many of its biggest markets.

Unlike Schaeffler’s bid for Continental, mostly accepted with equanimity in Germany, an approach on Daimler would likely face resistance from regulators and others in Germany, analysts say. Its stake in EADS would likely make any foreign takeover attempt a matter of national interest.

However, analysts also note that an opportunistic investor could attack Daimler very easily, given the notoriously weak attendance at shareholders’ meetings in Germany. “If you have €5bn and a bit of leverage, you could get a controlling stake,” says one.

A spokeswoman for Daimler said: “We do not see ourselves as a takeover candidate, but we cannot totally exclude the possibility. We have no indications that an investor is building a large stake.”

Daimler’s only large shareholder is the Emirate of Kuwait, with a stake of 7.6 per cent as of the end of April. The rest of its stock is free float, split between institutional and private investors.

A new investor might be lured to strip Daimler of its €8.8bn of net liquidity or urge it to split off the truck division, as some of its minority shareholders have long demanded. In an interview with the FT last year, shortly after the Chrysler sale, Mr Zetsche said Daimler felt “dramatically less vulnerable” to a takeover than before the sale, but added: “There’s no certainty, never in business.”

At the time, Mr Zetsche also dismissed the notion of hiving off the trucks business. “I don’t see a benefit for the majority of our shareholders, other than the ones who have a three-month perspective, in splitting the company.”

Today, people close to Daimler’s management say they are “very concerned”, but have not officially given either of their closest banks – Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan – a defence mandate as this could be interpreted as a sign of weakness.

However, rumours in the media about activist hedge funds buying shares in recent weeks seem to be baseless. “We do not see any changes in the shareholder structure,” says a banker close to Daimler.

Analysts say shareholder activism, which reached a peak when hedge funds pressured Daimler to sell Chrysler, was a theme of the past.

“It is not the right time for activists,” says Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas. “External pressure on management to unlock hidden value is a bull market phenomenon.”

Even so, he says: “You cannot take the rationality of the market for granted.”

Still, with Daimler’s market value not much higher than its equity, analysts said it could be tempting for strategic buyers seeking a full-fledged takeover.

“It always looks like nobody is out there to make it – but then suddenly there is,” says Citigroup analyst John Lawson.

Potential buyers might come from emerging markets – or even Daimler’s home turf, as some analysts suggest it would be a daring but wise move for BMW’s owners. “The time horizon of a family owner is better aligned with the long-term challenges of the industry,” says Mr Jonas.

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Venezuela to seize Cemex unit in takeover fight

* Reuters
* , Monday August 18 2008

(Recasts, adds government comment, details)

CARACAS, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Venezuela will take control of cement plants and offices belonging to Mexico's Cemex as of midnight on Monday after failing to reach an agreement in nationalization talks, the government said.

The expropriation is part of a drive by socialist President Hugo Chavez to place key industries under state control.

Officials said they had struck deals to buy majority stakes in the local operations of European cement makers Holcim and Lafarge but said Cemex was asking for too much.

"We calculate the amount they are asking for to be way above its real value," said Vice President Ramon Carrizalez.

Carrizalez said Cemex had asked for $1.3 billion for its Venezuelan operations.

The government said it paid $552 million for an 85 percent stake in Switzerland's Holcim's local unit and $267 million for 89 percent of the shares in France's Lafarge's local unit.

"Lafarge is working to protect as best as it can the interests of its shareholders and of its staff on the ground," a spokeswoman for Lafarge said earlier in the day, declining any further comment.

Reuters was unable to reach a representative for Holcim Venezuela or Cemex.

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Malaysia looking at nuclear energy use: minister
AFP
AFP - 20 minutes ago

KUALA LUMPUR (AFP) - Malaysia's cabinet will deliberate next month on whether to adopt nuclear energy to combat high global oil prices, a minister said Tuesday.
(Advertisement)

Last month, state utility Tenaga said it could construct the country's first 1,000 MW nuclear power plant at a cost of 3.1 billion dollars after being asked by the government to look at the option.

"After it is tabled to the cabinet, an announcement will be made on our commitment to further preparations," Science, Technology and Innovation minister Maximus Ongkili told state news agency Bernama.

"This nuclear energy is vital following the increase in the world fuel price and our limited oil reserve. Moreover, nuclear energy is cheap and clean," he added.

Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak said in June that Malaysia may consider adopting nuclear power to meet its long-term energy needs amid surging global oil prices.

Currently, half of Malaysia's power plants run on gas. Other sources include coal and hydropower.

Last year, the government said it would build Southeast Asia's first nuclear monitoring laboratory to allow scientists to check the safety of atomic energy programmes in the region.

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年金算出基準改ざん「組織的」　社会保険事務所の元職員が証言

　会社員の厚生年金の支給額を算定する基礎となる「標準報酬月額」（月給水準）の改ざん疑惑を巡り、社会保険事務所の元職員が19日、民主党の会合で「組織的な取り組みだった」と証言した。社会保険庁は「調査中」としているが、元職員の証言により、見かけ上の保険料の徴収率を高めるため、社保庁が組織ぐるみで年金記録の改ざんに関与していた実態が明らかになった。

　厚生年金の保険料は標準報酬月額に応じて決まる。最も低い月9万8000円から30等級あり、実際の給与額に基づいて適用する等級を当てはめ、保険料を労使折半で支払う。等級が替わると、保険料水準だけでなく、加入者が将来受け取る年金額にも影響を与える。

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キューバ向け貿易保険停止　日本への輸入代金滞る恐れ

　独立行政法人の日本貿易保険が、キューバ向けの貿易保険の新規引き受けを停止していることが明らかになった。キューバ国立銀行が期日までに、輸入代金を支払えないと通告してきたため。キューバ側は対外債務の支払いに必要な外貨が不足していると説明しており、新たに貿易保険を供与しても代金の回収ができなくなる恐れがあると判断した。

　新規引き受けの停止は5日から。キューバ国立銀行は日本企業とキューバ企業などの間の貿易資金をやりとりする窓口で、当面はキューバ向けの輸出がほぼ停止する公算が大きい。

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日用品、節約志向広がる　家計調査6月、４ヵ月連続減

　物価の上昇が響き、消費者が食品や日用品などの節約志向を強めている。総務省がまとめた6月の家計調査では、生活必需品を含む「基礎的支出」が物価変動の影響を除いた実質で前年同月比3.9％減り、4カ月連続で減少した。一方、ライフスタイルを反映する家電などの「選択的支出」は1.4％増と2カ月連続で増加している。通常の景気低迷期とは違って、生活必需品を中心に切り詰めているようだ。

　家計調査（2人以上の世帯）の基礎的支出には多くの食品やガソリン、電気・ガス代などが含まれる。名目では0.5％減。6月の消費者物価指数（生鮮食品を除く総合）が前年同月比1.9％上昇したが、基礎的支出の品目はこれを上回る3.5％上昇となった。

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東京都心の高級ホテル、お盆休みの稼働率上昇

　東京都心の高級ホテルで、お盆休みの客室稼働率が軒並み前年を大幅に上回った。ホテルオークラ東京（東京・港）は10ポイント増えて6割台を確保、ロイヤルパークホテル（東京・中央）も7ポイントほど増加した。出張利用が少ないお盆休みは本来、都心ホテルの閑散期。ガソリン価格や燃油特別付加運賃（燃油サーチャージ）の高騰を受け「東京の休日」を選択した人が増えたためとみられる。

　ホテルオークラ東京の13―16日の平均稼働率は62％。昨年の52％から二ケタ増となった。米国の信用力の低い個人向け住宅融資（サブプライムローン）問題などの影響を受け、同ホテルも今年は稼働率を落としていたが、「お盆はプール利用券付きのプランが好調で、家族利用が目立った」という。

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日航、部品調達契約見直し　在庫減へ使用分のみ購入

　日本航空は整備コスト削減の一環として、海外の航空機部品メーカーや整備会社との部品調達契約を見直す。これまでは改修が必要なものを予備部品として購入、保管していたが、9月からは部品を使った分だけ代金を支払う契約に変更するなどして、部品の購入費や在庫部品を減らす。年間1200億円程度かかっていた整備費を今後3年間で10％削減する。

　油圧・気圧系部品大手、米ハミルトン・サンドストランドと新たな部品調達契約を結び、来月から実施する。従来、壊れた部品はハミルトンに送るか、予備部品として日航が購入し在庫として蓄えていた。今回、取引を見直し、ハミルトン製部品の使った分だけ代金を支払う方式に変更する。

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東電、新工法で投資減　耐震工事控え費用圧縮

　東京電力は設備投資の削減に向け、新工法を相次ぎ導入する。変電所の保護装置を開発し、一変電所あたりで約1億円の工事費を削減。地中送電線工事では河川下に送電線を通す工事費用を削減する新工法で約2億円を減らす。新潟県の柏崎刈羽原子力発電所の耐震工事で多額の費用増が避けられないため、通常工事の費用圧縮を急ぐ。

　変電所で大量の電気が流れる基幹線を保護する装置を開発し、八変電所に採用。今後も他の変電所に広げる考えだ。地中送電線工事では「弧状推進工法」を導入。河川下に送電線を通す際に、大規模なくいを必要としないので工期短縮と費用削減につながるという。

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牧野フライス、山梨に60億円で工場　09年末メド

　工作機械大手の牧野フライス製作所は2009年末をメドに山梨県富士吉田市に新工場を建設する。工作機械の周辺機器の生産を新工場に集約するほか、航空機部品などの加工技術を開発・実証する施設も置く。足元の工作機械需要は先進国の景気減速を受けて減少しているが、中長期的に受注は伸びると見て積極投資を継続する。

　当面の投資額は約60億円。同社の国内新工場建設は1987年の富士勝山事業所（同富士河口湖町）以来となる。富士吉田市で約12万平方メートルの土地を取得。自動的に工具を交換する周辺装置などの生産も新工場に集めて効率化しコスト低減につなげる。

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脳の性差決定に関与か　京都府立医大、神経細胞の集合体発見

　ラットの脳で体温やホルモン分泌の調整を担う視床下部という部分に、これまで知られていない神経細胞の集合体が存在することを、京都府立医科大学の研究チームが見つけた。脳の中での性差を決める機能に関与している可能性があるという。

　成果は19日、米科学アカデミー紀要（電子版）に発表した。

　発見したのは博士課程大学院生の森浩子さんと河田光博教授らのチーム。薄く切ったラットの脳で女性ホルモンに反応する神経細胞を調べるうちに見つけた。

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患者取り違え乳房切除　岡山済生会総合病院

　岡山済生会総合病院（岡山市）は19日、乳がん検診の受診者の検体をがん患者のものと取り違えて、がんではない女性の左乳房を全切除するミスがあったと発表した。

　受診者を識別するための番号を、技師が誤って検体に記入したのが原因らしい。同病院は女性に経緯を説明し謝罪した。

　同病院によると、乳房を切除されたのは岡山県の40代女性。昨年7月、乳がん検診を受け、触診では異常がなかったが、マンモグラフィーや組織検査で「がんの疑いがある」と診断。磁気共鳴画像装置（ＭＲＩ）の画像もがんを疑わせるものであったため、同年9月に切除手術を受けた。

　ところが切除組織を詳しく検査して、がんでないことが判明。調べると、検査組織を乗せるスライドに記入された識別番号が、同じ日に検査を受けた別の受診者と入れ替わっていた。

　同病院はがんと判明した別の受診者にも謝罪し切除手術をした。術後は良好という。糸島達也院長は「非常に申し訳ないことをした。全力で再発防止策に取り組む」としている。

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若ノ鵬「大麻」稽古中も？　間垣部屋個室からも吸引具

　大麻取締法違反容疑で逮捕されたロシア国籍で大相撲間垣部屋の幕内力士、若ノ鵬寿則（本名ガグロエフ・ソスラン）容疑者（２０）が、部屋からも吸引具が新たに見つかり、稽古中も薬物を常用していた疑いが強いことが分かった。スピード出世の裏で、奇行も目立っていた。日本相撲協会はほかの力士に薬物使用がないか調査に入った。不祥事続きの角界は、初の現役関取の逮捕という衝撃に大きく揺れている。

　東京都墨田区の間垣部屋前には１９日朝から大勢の報道陣が詰めかけた。間垣親方（元横綱二代目若乃花）は同日午前、実家の青森から東京に向かったとされるが、部屋に姿を見せず、若い力士がうつむき押し黙ったまま出入りするだけだっだ。

　稽古見学に訪れたフランス人観光客も「きょうはダメだ」とむげに断られた。部屋は横綱朝青龍の自宅マンションにも近く、住民は「またですね…」と顔をしかめていた。

　間垣親方は昼にも相撲協会を訪れた後、警視庁の事情聴取を受ける。

　事件の発覚は偶然だった。若ノ鵬容疑者が落とした財布から刻んだ大麻入りのたばこが見つかった。若ノ鵬容疑者は「六本木で外国人からもらった」と供述しているが、自宅マンションから使用済みの大麻吸引用のパイプが押収された。間垣部屋の個室からも同じタイプのパイプが見つかっており、警視庁は稽古の合間にも大麻を常用していた疑いが強いとみている。

　若ノ鵬容疑者はロシア・北オセチア・アラニア共和国生まれ。１５歳でロシアのレスリングジュニア王者になり、同郷の露鵬に誘われて２００４年に来日。翌年３月場所で初土俵を踏み、昨年１１月の九州場所でスピード新入幕を果たし「逸材」の呼び声が高かった。

　昨年７月の名古屋場所ででは、若木山を“跳び箱”に見立ててジャンプしてはたき込む“珍技”を見せたが、それ以上に顔をしかめたくなる奇行が目立った。

　昨年の夏巡業ではぶつかり稽古で横綱白鵬に胸を借りながら意味不明な言葉を発し勝手に稽古を打ち切った。今年５月の夏場所では負けた腹いせに風呂場の棚をひじで壊し、協会から厳重注意処分を受けた。

　６月のロサンゼルス巡業では集合時間に遅刻したり、勝負後に土俵下で相手を駄目押ししたり、やりたい放題。深夜まで飲み歩き朝稽古をサボることもしばしばだったといい、この若さで、すでに素行の悪さは朝青龍を上回っていた。

　それでも間垣親方は未成年のうちからマンション住まいを許す放任を続けた。

　間垣親方は夏場所で弟子への暴行で協会から減俸処分を受けたばかり。協会では１９日にも緊急の理事会を開き、若ノ鵬の解雇とともに間垣親方の処分を決める。

　時津風部屋の力士暴行死事件に続き、信頼を揺るがす激震に見舞われた協会が最も懸念するのが、ほかの力士に薬物汚染が広がっていないかという点。協会は事件発覚直後からロシア出身力士の薬物使用の緊急調査に乗り出した。

　間垣部屋での相次ぐ不祥事に北の湖理事長は「２度と起こらなくするのが私の責任」と苦渋の表情で弁明するほかなかった。

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北の湖理事長「重く受け止める」　ロシア出身力士逮捕

　日本相撲協会の北の湖理事長は18日夜、緊急の記者会見を開き「一社会人、一力士としてあってはならないことで遺憾」と謝罪。近く理事会を開いて「二度とないように、厳正に対応する」と表明した。

　また「一般的には未成年だが、幕内の関取であるということを重く受け止めなければならない」と、しこ名を挙げて謝罪した理由を説明した。

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帝国ホテル東京火災：あめ細工用器具を置いた棚焼ける

　東京都千代田区の「帝国ホテル東京」で１７日夜起きた火災で、出火場所は２階通路で、置いてあったキャスター付きの棚周辺が最も激しく焼けていたことが警視庁丸の内署の調べで分かった。火災発生の約１時間前まで従業員３人がガスバーナーやドライヤーを使ってあめ細工を作る練習をし終了後は器具を棚に置いていったという。丸の内署は器具の余熱が出火につながった可能性があるとみて調べる。

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雷：都心７月、最近５０年間で最多　家電被害も相次ぐ

　東京都心で７月に雷を観測した日数は７日で、１カ月の日数としては最近５０年間で最も多かったことが、気象庁の統計で分かった。夏の太平洋高気圧の勢力が例年より弱く、大気の状態が不安定になることが多いため。地球温暖化や都市部のヒートアイランドも影響しているとみられる。落雷で家電製品が故障する被害も相次ぎ、家電量販店などが対応に追われている。【樋岡徹也、神澤龍二】

　気象庁によると、７月の雷観測日は４、７、１２、１４、１８、２７、２９日の計７日で、平年（２．３日）の約３倍。８月も既に３日で、平年（２．５日）を超えた。村中明・主任予報官は「例年なら太平洋高気圧が日本全体を覆うが、今年は勢力が弱い。上空に寒気が入り込む一方、下層には湿った暖気があるため、大気の状態が不安定となり、雷雲が発生しやすい」と分析する。

　他都市の７月の雷観測日は▽名古屋４日（平年４．５日）▽大阪４日（同３．２日）▽福岡４日（同４．３日）－－とほぼ平年並みだが、８月は１８日現在で、福岡８日（同５日）、大阪６日（同３．５日）と既に平年を上回っている。

　落雷によって７月以降、判明しているだけで全国で３人が死亡し、家電製品へも影響が出ている。東京都江戸川区の家電量販店「コジマＮＥＷ江戸川店」には、８月だけで落雷の影響とみられる修理相談が約３０件あった。アンテナに直撃してテレビが映らなくなったり、ファクスが故障したりするケースが多かったといい、男性店長代理（３４）は「落雷と大雨がひどかった８月中旬は１日１０件以上の相談が立て続けにあった」と話す。

　落雷が相次いだ山梨県富士吉田市の「ノジマ富士吉田店」でも、故障の相談が多い日には１日２０件あり、７、８月で計１００件を超えたという。電話機器類の故障の相談が突出し、男性店長代理（３９）は「昨年のこの時期は数件しかなかった。今年は異常だ」と驚きを隠さない。

　家電製品に被害が相次ぐのは、雷が直撃しなくても、電線や通信線を通じて異常な電流が流れる「雷（らい）サージ」が起こり、家電製品の基盤などが破損するケースがあるためだ。財団法人・電力中央研究所の新藤孝敏・上席研究員は「雷サージの対策は、雷の音を聞いたら、電源を切ってコンセントから抜くしかない。最近は耐雷保護装置なども家電販売店で購入できるので、自己防衛策として装着するのも良い」と話している。

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外交：アフリカが焦点に　大使若返りでテコ入れ

　アフリカが日本の外交課題の重なる焦点の舞台になりつつある。政府は７、８月に国連平和維持活動（ＰＫＯ）の調査団を派遣。温暖化防止策のカギとなる地域で、原油などの資源争奪戦も激しさを増す。外務省はガーナなど主要国の大使に、従来より４、５年若い有望株の外交官を起用。人事面でも抜本的なテコ入れを始めた。

　政府は５月に横浜市で開いた第４回アフリカ開発会議（ＴＩＣＡＤ４）で、対アフリカＯＤＡ（政府開発援助）の倍増を表明。０７年度にアフリカ３カ国に大使館を新設したのに続き、０８年度もモーリタニアなど２カ国に設置予定で、アフリカ外交のインフラ整備を急ピッチで進めている。

　アフリカでは「ＰＫＯ」「温暖化」「エネルギー」の各課題が、相互に関連し合っている。ＰＫＯ調査団は、原油が豊富なスーダンへの影響力確保が狙いだった。原油高騰で経済成長を狙う産油国は、温暖化防止策が成長の妨げになるとの警戒感を強めている。外務省は若手大使の行動力で、アフリカ外交全体の連携を強化したいと期待している。

　９月初旬にもガーナに赴任する片上慶一氏（５４）は人事課長や官房長官秘書官を経験。ガーナは日本が支援を表明しているＰＫＯセンターの所在地で、２１日からはポスト京都議定書の枠組みを議論する国連作業部会も開かれる。昨年は大規模な油田も発見され、日本の利害が集中。０７年のアフリカ連合（ＡＵ）議長国を務めるなど政治的影響力も大きく、日本のアフリカ外交の新たな拠点となりそうだ。

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対人関係：「キレる」構造を研究へ　文科省

　引きこもりや「キレる若者」など対人関係の不適応が問題化していることを受け、文部科学省は来年度から、人間の社会行動やコミュニケーションに関係する脳の機能や構造を特定する研究に乗り出す方針を固めた。脳のある部位の変化や個人的特徴が、行動などにどのような影響を与えるかを示す指標を作り、問題行動や社会性障害の予防や治療につなげることを目指す。

　文科省や専門家によると、脳の生物学的な特徴と社会行動との関係は、動物では比較的解明が進んでいる。マウスでは、ある種の脳内物質を欠くと自閉的行動を示したり、攻撃性が高まることが分かってきたという。

　人間については、脳の計測の難しさなどから心理学的な手法での研究が主だった。今回、文科省は動物での知見を網羅的に結集し、計測技術の開発も進め、人間の社会性を生み出す脳内メカニズムの解明を目指す。文科省がテーマを設定し公募で研究者を選ぶ。さらに、不眠症や摂食障害、うつの増加を踏まえ、ストレス耐性や睡眠リズムをつかさどる脳幹研究も強化する。

　このため、今年度から５年計画で始めた脳科学研究戦略推進プログラムを拡充し、今年度の予算１７億円から倍増以上の重点投資を計画している。

　文科省ライフサイエンス課は「脳科学だけですべての問題に答えることはできないが、問題行動や社会性障害の生物学的なリスク要因がある程度明らかになれば、予防や治療に結びつく可能性がある」と期待する。

　東北大で「脳神経科学を社会に還流する教育研究拠点」のリーダーを務める大隅典子教授は「早い段階でリスクが分かれば、育児や教育でケアできる可能性がある。こうした指標が差別につながらないよう、経験や環境によって脳が生物学的に変化することなども社会に説明しながら研究を進める必要がある」と指摘する。

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In Georgia, Russia sends clear message US, Israeli influence will not be tolerated
By Theodore Karasik

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Analysis BY Theodore Karasik

DUBAI: South Ossetian separatists, supported by Moscow, escalated their machine-gun and mortar-fire attacks against neighboring Georgian villages last week. In response, Georgia attacked the separatist capital South Ossetian Tskhinvali with artillery to suppress fire. Tskhinvali suffered severe damage, thus providing the pretext for Moscow's invasion of Georgia. Russians in Abkhazia are also fighting the Georgians.

As Russia responded with overwhelming force, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin flew from the Beijing Olympics to Vladikavkaz, taking control of the military operations. Putin sidelined his successor, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, thereby leaving no doubt as to who is in charge. Medvedev's role is to handle the international diplomatic front which seems to be not on the table. Under Putin's orders, the 58th Russian Army of the North Caucasus Military District rolled into South Ossetia, reinforced by the 76th Airborne "Pskov" Division. Cossacks from the neighboring Russian territories moved in to combat the Georgians as well.

The Black Sea Fleet is blockading Georgia from the sea, while Russian ballistic missiles and its air force are attacking Georgian military bases and cities including Tbilisi. What Russia is trying to do - and looking like she may succeed - is to establish a pro-Russian regime in Georgia that will also bring the strategic Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Erzurum (Turkey) gas pipeline under Moscow's control.

More importantly and with immense strategic implications, Russia is also trying to send Israel a clear message that Tel Aviv's military support for Tbilisi in organizing, training and equipping Georgia's army will no longer be tolerated. Private Israeli security firms and retired military officials are actively involved in Georgian security. Further, Israel's interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines is growing and Russia seeks to stop this activity at this time. Intense negotiations about current and future pipelines between Israel, Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan are tied to receiving oil at the terminal at Ashkelon and on to the Red Sea port of Eilat. Finally, Russia is sending a clear message that it will not tolerate US influence in Georgia nor Tbilisi's interests - supported by the pro-US Georgian President Mikhal Saakashvili - in joining NATO. Overall, the military crisis will push Moscow to punish Israel for its assistance to Georgia, and challenge the US to do more than voice rhetoric.

In the Gulf, there are several broad implications. First is the impact of the war on Gulf investment in the Caucasus and in Russia. The Russian damage to Ras al-Khaimah's investment plan in Georgia is troublesome. The Ras al-Khaimah government has recently invested in the Georgian port of Poti where its real-estate development arm Rakeen is developing a free zone. Rakeen is also developing some mixed-use projects near the capital Tbilisi. The firm has three projects in Georgia - Tbilisi Heights and Uptown Tbilisi - with a total value of $1.98 billion, while a third is being planned. But Ras al-Khaimah's other major investment did not remain unhurt. The Georgian harbor Poti, which is majority owned by the Ras al-Khaimah Investment Authority (Rakia), was badly damaged in Russian air raids. In April 2008, Georgia sold a 51 percent stake in the Poti port area to Rakia to develop a free economic zone (FEZ) in a 49-year management concession, and to manage a new port terminal. The creation of FEZ, to be developed by Rakeen, was officially inaugurated by Saakashvili on April 15, 2008. Previously the trend in Russo-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) relations focused on strengthening the "north-south" economic corridor between the two regions; this linkage may now be in jeopardy if more Gulf investment goes up in smoke.

The second implication is the growing military presence in both Gulf waters and the Mediterranean Sea by the West and Russia that cannot be separated from the Russo-Georgian conflict. There is an unprecedented build-up of American, French, British and Canadian naval and air assets - the most since the 2003 invasion of Iraq - that are to be in place shortly for a partial naval blockade of Iran. Three US strike forces are en route to the Gulf namely the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Iwo Jima. Already in place are the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea opposite Iranian shores and the USS Peleliu which is cruising in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

There is also a growing Russian Navy deployment begun earlier this year to the eastern Mediterranean comprising the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov with approximately 50 Su-33 warplanes that have the capacity for mid-air refueling along with the guided-missile heavy cruiser Moskva. This means the Russian aircraft could reach the Gulf from the Mediterranean, a distance of some 1360 kilometers, and would be forced to fly not only over Syria but Iraq as well, where the skies are controlled by the US military. The Russian task force is believed to be composed of a dozen warships and several submarines. While the West is seeking to defend Gulf oil sources destined to the West and the Far East, Russia is increasing its desire to control Caspian oil resources and setting herself in a strategic position near the Levant.

A final implication is what may be a complete collapse of any back channel communications via Russia to Iran regarding Tehran's preparation for confrontation with the West and slowing down Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon. In the past year, Russia acted as an intermediary between the US, Israel, the GCC - specifically Saudi Arabia - and Tehran. With the Russian-Georgian war, the door may now slam shut between these players. Saudi Arabia, for instance, is attempting to halt the Russian sale of the S-300 anti-air defense system to Tehran and also is seeking to purchase large amounts of Russian weapons to "buy-off" Moscow's pursuit of selling conventional weapons to Iran. As a consequence of the Russo-Georgian war, Russia may start to play hardball with going through with arms sales to Iran and dropping support for sanctions against Iran that may invite a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran.

As further evidence of the heightening of tensions, Kuwait is activating its "Emergency War Plan" as the massive US and European flotilla is heading for the region. Part of Kuwait's plan is to put strategic oil assets in reserve in the Far East and outside the forthcoming battle space. And Israel is building up its strike capabilities for an attack on Iran, purchasing 90 F-16I planes that can carry enough fuel to reach Iran. Israel has also bought two new Dolphin submarines from Germany capable of firing nuclear-armed warheads, in addition to the three already in service with its navy. Many strategic and tactical pieces for a confrontation are falling into place.

Overall, analysts have argued that there might be a series of triggers that could force a confrontation between the West and Iran. Some maintained that this trigger may occur in the Gulf or in the Levant - whether accidental or on purpose. There were potential triggers before-the April 2007 seizure of British sailors in the Gulf, the September 2007 Israeli attack on a suspected Syrian nuclear facility, and Hizbullah's seizure of west Beirut in May 2008. Now it appears that a more serious trigger may be the Russo-Georgian war - despite geographical distance - that may carry dire consequences for all-especially in the Gulf littoral.

Theodore Karasik is the director for research and development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.

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Israel’s role in the Russia-Georgia war
By Ali Abunimah

From the moment Georgia launched a surprise attack on the tiny breakaway region of South Ossetia, prompting a fierce Russian counterattack, Israel has been trying to distance itself from the conflict. This is understandable: with Georgian forces on the retreat, large numbers of civilians killed and injured, and Russia’s fury unabated, Israel’s deep involvement is severely embarrassing.

The collapse of the Georgian offensive represents not only a disaster for that country and its U.S.-backed leaders, but another blow to the myth of Israel’s military prestige and prowess. Worse, Israel fears that Russia could retaliate by stepping up its military assistance to Israel’s adversaries.

“Israel is following with great concern the developments in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and hopes the violence will end,” its foreign ministry said, adding with uncharacteristic dovishness, “Israel recognizes the territorial integrity of Georgia and calls for a peaceful solution.”

Tbilisi’s top diplomat in Tel Aviv complained about the lackluster Israeli response to his country’s predicament and perhaps overestimating Israeli influence, called for Israeli “diplomatic pressure on Moscow.” Just like Israel, the diplomat said, Georgia is fighting a war on “terrorism.” Israeli officials politely told the Georgians that “the address for that type of pressure was Washington” (Herb Keinon, “Tbilisi wants Israel to pressure Russia,” The Jerusalem Post, 11 August 2008).

While Israel was keen to downplay its role, Georgia perhaps hoped that flattery might draw Israel further in. Georgian minister Temur Yakobashvili -- whom the Israeli daily Haaretz stressed was Jewish -- told Israeli army radio that “Israel should be proud of its military which trained Georgian soldiers.” Yakobashvili claimed rather implausibly, according to Haaretz, that “a small group of Georgian soldiers were able to wipe out an entire Russian military division, thanks to the Israeli training” (“Georgian minister tells Israel Radio: Thanks to Israeli training, we’re fending off Russian military,” Haaretz, 11 August 2008).

Since 2000, Israel has sold hundreds of millions of dollars in arms and combat training to Georgia. Weapons included guns, ammunition, shells, tactical missile systems, antiaircraft systems, automatic turrets for armored vehicles, electronic equipment and remotely piloted aircraft. These sales were authorized by the Israeli defense ministry (Arie Egozi, “War in Georgia: The Israeli connection,” Ynet, 10 August 2008).

Training also involved officers from Israel’s Shin Bet secret service -- which has for decades carried out extrajudicial executions and torture of Palestinians in the occupied territories -- the Israeli police, and the country’s major arms companies Elbit and Rafael.

The Tel Aviv-Tbilisi military axis appears to have been cemented at the highest levels, and according to YNet, “The fact that Georgia’s defense minister, Davit Kezerashvili, is a former Israeli who is fluent in Hebrew contributed to this cooperation.” Others involved in the brisk arms trade included former Israeli minister and Tel Aviv mayor Roni Milo as well as several senior Israeli military officers.

The key liaison was Reserve Brigadier General Gal Hirsch who commanded Israeli forces on the border with Lebanon during the July 2006 Second Lebanon War. (Yossi Melman, “Georgia Violence -- A frozen alliance,” Haaretz, 10 August 2008). He resigned from the army after the Winograd commission severely criticized Israel’s conduct of its war against Lebanon and an internal Israeli army investigation blamed Hirsch for the seizure of two soldiers by Hezbollah.

According to one of the Israeli combat trainers, an officer in an “elite” Israel army unit, Hirsch and colleagues would sometimes personally supervise the training of Georgian forces which included “house-to-house fighting.” The training was carried out through several “private” companies with close links to the Israeli military.

As the violence raged in Georgia, the trainer was desperately trying to contact his former Georgian students on the battlefront via mobile phone: the Israelis wanted to know whether the Georgians had “internalized Israeli military technique and if the special reconnaissance forces have chalked up any successes” (Jonathan Lis and Moti Katz, “IDF vets who trained Georgia troops say war with Russia is no surprise,” Haaretz, 11 August 2008).

Yet on the ground, the Israeli-trained Georgian forces, perhaps unsurprisingly overwhelmed by the Russians, have done little to redeem the image of Israel’s military following its defeat by Hezbollah in July-August 2006.

The question remains as to why Israel was involved in the first place. There are several reasons. The first is simply economic opportunism: for years, especially since the 11 September 2001 attacks, arms exports and “security expertise” have been one of Israel’s growth industries. But the close Israeli involvement in a region Russia considers to be of vital interest suggests that Israel might have been acting as part of the broader U.S. scheme to encircle Russia and contain its reemerging power.

Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has been steadily encroaching on Russia’s borders and expanding NATO in a manner the Kremlin considers highly provocative. Shortly after coming into office, the Bush Administration tore up the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty and, like the Clinton administration, adopted former Soviet satellite states as its own, using them to base an anti-missile system Russia views as a threat. In addition to their “global war on terror,” hawks in Washington have recently been talking up a new Cold War with Russia.

Georgia was an eager volunteer in this effort and has learned quickly the correct rhetoric: one Georgian minister claimed that “every bomb that falls on our heads is an attack on democracy, on the European Union and on America.” Georgia has been trying to join NATO, and sent 2,000 soldiers to help the U.S. occupy Iraq. It may have hoped that once war started this loyalty would be rewarded with the kind of round-the-clock airlift of weapons that Israel receives from the U.S. during its wars. Instead so far the U.S. only helped airlift the Georgian troops from Iraq back to the beleaguered home front.

By helping Georgia, Israel may have been doing its part to duplicate its own experience in assisting the eastward expansion of the “Euro-Atlantic” empire. While supporting Georgia was certainly risky for Israel, given the possible Russian reaction, it has a compelling reason to intervene in a region that is heavily contested by global powers. Israel must constantly reinvent itself as an “asset” to American power if it is to maintain the U.S. support that ensures its survival as a settler-colonial enclave in the Middle East. It is a familiar role; in the 1970s and 1980s, at the behest of Washington, Israel helped South Africa’s apartheid regime fight Soviet-supported insurgencies in South African-occupied Namibia and Angola, and it trained right-wing U.S.-allied death squads fighting left-wing governments and movements in Central America. After 2001, Israel marketed itself as an expert on combating so-called ”Islamic terrorism”.

Georgia’s government, to the detriment of its people, may have tried to play the role of a loyal servant of U.S. ambitions in that region -- and lost the gamble. Playing with empires is dangerous for a small country.

As for Israel itself, with the Bush Doctrine having failed to give birth to the “new Middle East” that the U.S. needs to maintain its power in the region against growing resistance, an ever more desperate and rogue Israel must look for opportunities to prove its worth elsewhere. That is a dangerous and scary thing.

Ali Abunimah is the cofounder of The Electronic Intifada.

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Russia considers nuclear missiles for Syria, Baltic
Russia is planning to install Iskander surface missiles in Syria and its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad, in a response to United States missile interceptors in Poland and U.S.-Israeli military aid to Georgia, an Israeli news agency reported on Monday.

Russia considers nuclear missiles for Syria, Baltic

Moscow seems to be eying Poland, the Middle East, and possibly Ukraine, as the main arenas for its reprisals, as Russia is reported to plan arming warships, submarines and long-range bombers in the Baltic and Middle East with nuclear warheads, DEBKAfile reported.

The plan includes the establishment of big Russian military, naval and air bases in Syria and the release of advanced weapons systems withheld until now to Iran, with the S-300 air-missile defense system, and the nuclear-capable Iskander to Syria.

Shortly before the Georgian conflict flared, Moscow promised Washington not to let Iran and Syria have these sophisticated pieces of hardware.

The Iskander's cruise attributes make its launch and trajectory extremely hard to detect and intercept. If this missile reaches Syria, Israel will have to revamp its anti-missile defense array and Air Force assault plans for the third time in two years, as it constitutes a threat which transcends all its defensive red lines.

Moscow's military planners know this and are therefore considering new sea and air bases in Syria as sites for the Iskander missiles, DEBKAfile reported. Russia would thus keep the missiles under its hand and make sure they were not transferred to Iran, it added.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will be invited to Moscow soon to finalize these plans in detail, according to the report.

Military spokesmen in Moscow also said at the weekend that Russian military planners started redesigning the nation’s strategic plans as a fitting response to the U.S. decision to install 10 missile interceptors in Poland and over the recent clashes in Georgia, DEBKAfile reported.

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Not the good guys vs. the bad guys
By Gideon Levy
Tags: russia, U.S., georgia

TBILISI- The weekend edition of The Georgian Times left no room for doubt. The weekly, which is published in English and edited entirely by women, enlisted in the cause with all its might: "For Georgia and victory," "Georgia alone in stand-off with Russia," and "Europe learned nothing from Hitler's crimes" screamed the paper's front-page headlines. When the cannons are roaring in this spectacular Caucasian country, as in almost every country, everything serves a melodramatic purpose and self-criticism falls silent.

But one does not have to be a propagandizing Georgian newspaper to paint this new war in stark black and white. After all, the West and Israel are doing it, too: Georgia, a tiny democracy, dear to the West and darling of the U.S., is facing off against the aggressive, conquering, bullying Russian bear, not to mention the new Nazi. Good guys versus bad guys, David versus Goliath, "Adolf Putin" versus the freedom fighters.

It has been years since we have had a war in which it is so clear to spectators in the West who constitute the Children of Light and who constitute the Children of Darkness.
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It is a matter of propaganda. The U.S. president's remarks on Friday that the world would not accept bullying and intimidation could only raise a bitter smile.

George W. Bush talking about bullying? The U.S. president talking about intimidation? Who set off to two bullying wars this decade? Who tried to solve problems and replace regimes through intimidation if not our friend in the White House? Which power spilled more blood this decade? Russia or "the leader of the free world"?

For the West, everything goes, from placing missiles on Polish soil to discussing Georgia's joining NATO. But Russia is not even allowed to respond?

After a few days on the frontline in Gori, the picture that emerges is complex and far from unilateral. The first question is, as usual, who started it. Georgian minister Temur Yakobashvili, of course, has a ready and clear-cut response: the Russians. The separatists provoked, Russia invaded. But even as he expresses himself in fluent Hebrew - "either you get screwed or you screw" - one is not easily convinced that this is simply an innocent country that found itself the victim of a fire-breathing giant.

Yakobashvili, the Jewish minister of "reintegration," another white-washed term for occupation, is responsible in the name of his government for two controversial regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He ignores the fact that the inhabitants of these areas do not want to be part of his country.

The two maps of these regions hanging in his office do not change this. He also blurs the fact that about a week ago his country sent troops into South Ossetia, most of whose inhabitants are Russian citizens, a move Moscow could not help but consider a provocation.

Encouraged by Western sympathy for their president, the Georgians thought they could do anything and that Russia would remain indifferent. But then came the surprise: Russia responded with force.

This is also how Israel responded to another provocation - the killing and abduction of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. This is how countries, including freer and more democratic ones than Russia, respond to provocations.

It is disconcerting to see Russian tanks rumbling along the main road from Gori to Tbilisi as if they owned the place, but this is the way things happen in a bullying world. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili should have known that.

When the cannons fall silent, perhaps in his country, too, the tough questions will be raised: why and for what.

The hundreds of refugees who gathered last Wednesday in the square in front of the parliament on Rustaveli Boulevard poured out their wrath not only on Moscow, but also on their adventure-seeking president who suffers from hubris.

The Cold War is back. It returned suddenly, after Russia already lost. The question remains as to whether a single-power world is more peaceful than a polarized world. In two decades of sole American hegemony we have not seen less war and bloodshed - even if the world is considered "freer."

This is something worth remembering. It should also be remembered that those who rent out their power and skills to others end up paying a price: Israel might pay a heavy price for the drones and training by Israel Ziv and Gal Hirsch, our new mercenaries in Georgia. The next time President Shimon Peres meets Vladimir Putin and asks him to stop arming Hezbollah, Putin, the enemy of the new world, will respond with a reasoned response.

There are no good guys and bad guys, but only bad and violent guys, some more and some less. In the backyard of a Europe in the process of unification, something happened that must be corrected through diplomatic means alone.

It is unlikely that the war has ended, but meanwhile let us not fall again into a deceptive trap just because Saakashvili speaks better English than Putin.
(Ha'aretz)

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松尾邦弘という元検事総長の何気ない言葉にその正体を見る

　松尾邦弘という元検事総長の何気ない言葉にその正体を見る

　　はじめに断っておくが、私は松尾邦弘という元検事総長には何の面識もない。

　　ましてや個人的な恨みやこだわりはない。

　　法務官僚のトップに上りつめたエリート官僚に対し、外務省を追われた失格官僚が何を言っても笑われるのがオチだろう。

　　しかし、私も松尾氏も、この国の官僚という一点で共通するものを持っていた。

　　保身と出世のために、最後は国民よりも権力者に従うという現実主義、打算的処世術である。

　　ついでに言えば、私と松尾氏が官僚人生を始めたのもほぼ同時期だ。

　　官僚人生の終わりは天と地の開きはあるが、私にとっては元検事総長もただの官僚である。

　　その松尾氏の正体を見せる不用意な発言を私は見つけた。

　　読売新聞の連載に「時代の証言者」というのがある。

　　その１８日の記事から、松尾元検事総長の証言がはじまった。

　　その一回目の記事に次のような松尾氏の証言があった。

　　・・・私はこの時期、法務事務次官や最高検次長検事などを務め、組織の中枢にいました。最大の課題として常に眼前にあったのが司法制度改革でした・・・

　と述べた後で、松尾氏はこう証言している。

　「・・・債権回収に奔走していた友人の銀行幹部から痛烈な批判を浴びました。『担保不動産を処分したいが、そのための裁判は何年もかかる。司法はいざ必要な時に役に立たない』と。
　　こうした不満が経済界を中心に沸き起こり、司法制度改革の論議につながっていきました・・・」

　正体見たり。

　国民からのニーズで裁判員制度が出来たのでは決してない。この国のエリート同士の都合で出来たのだ。

　経済界の仲間の不満を受けて、司法改革を行なったと認めているのである。

　さらに彼の証言は続く。

　９９年７月小渕内閣の時にできた司法制度改革審議会は、２００１年６月、小泉首相に最終意見書を提出した。

　その意見書の中に盛り込まれていた裁判員制度について、松尾元検事総長はこう証言している。

　「・・・はじめはよくわかりませんでしたが、審議会の議事録を必死で読み、夜遅くまで他の幹部と議論を重ねるうちに、次第に司法の位置づけが見えてきました・・・」

　驚くべき証言である。検察のトップでさえもわからない裁判員制度なのである。

　検察のトップが必死で勉強してできた制度が、何もわからない国民に押しつけられる。

　それが来年５月から始まるのである。

　裁判員制度は、他の多くの制度と同じように、国家権力の弛緩と横暴から生まれたものでしかないのだ。

　それを国民は黙って受け入れさせられるのである。
http://www.amakiblog.com/archives/2008/08/18/#001085

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乳価引き上げ求め決起大会　北海道根室地方の酪農家
2008.8.19 11:30

　飼料価格の高騰で深刻な経営危機に直面している北海道根室地方の酪農家らが、乳業メーカーに販売する生乳価格（乳価）の再引き上げを求めて１９日午前、中標津町で総決起大会を開いた。

　根室地区酪農対策協議会などが主催し、消費者団体や経済団体にも参加を呼び掛けた。

　生産者団体のホクレン農業協同組合連合会によると、飼料価格は２年前に比べ約３割高騰しており、経営を圧迫。乳価は４月に１キロ当たり平均３円値上げされたが飼料高は続き、全国の生産者団体は異例の年内再値上げを求めてメーカー側との交渉に入っている。

　根室地方は北海道を代表する酪農地帯。

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長期欠席１３議員に報酬は満額支給、全国１２県市で

　全国の４７都道府県と１７政令市のうち１２県市が、２００３～０７年度の本会議・委員会を半年以上（休会期間中含む）欠席した１３議員に対し、議員報酬を全額支給していたことが、読売新聞の調査でわかった。

　減額規定を設けていないためだが、１３議員に支払われた額は、月ごとの報酬とボーナスに当たる年２回の期末手当を合わせて１億６４００万円に上る。自治体財政が厳しさを増すなか、実働時間に合わせた議員報酬のあり方が問われそうだ。

　議員報酬は各自治体の条例で定められており、沖縄、秋田両県議会事務局は「条例を改正しない限り、支給せざるを得ない」と説明。「公務員や会社員と違い、議員は非常勤。本会議や委員会を休んでも議会外で議員活動をしているかもしれない」（和歌山県議会事務局）という意見もある。

　一方で新潟、福岡、大分の３県は、条例に減額規定を設けている。福岡県は定例会を２回以上連続して全休するなどしたら報酬を支給せず、ほかの２県は一定期間出席しないと５０％削るなどする。

　国や自治体の職員が欠勤した場合は、一般職の職員の給与に関する法律や条例で減額が定められている。ただ、国会議員には減額の取り決めはない。

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PHELPS' PIG SECRET: HE'S BOY GORGE
By CLEMENTE LISI with Post Wire Services

Last updated: 6:09 pm
August 13, 2008
Posted: 3:59 am
August 13, 2008

Swimming sensation Michael Phelps has an Olympic recipe for success - and it involves eating a staggering 12,000 calories a day.

"Eat, sleep and swim. That's all I can do," Phelps, who won two more gold medals today, told NBC when asked what he needs to win medals. "Get some calories into my system and try to recover the best I can."

By comparison, the average man of the same age needs to ingest about 2,000 calories a day.

Phelps, 23, will swim 17 times over nine days of competition at the Beijing Games - meaning that he will need all the calories he can shovel in his mouth in order to keep his energy levels high.

Phelps' diet - which involves ingesting 4,000 calories every time he sits down for a meal - resembles that of a reckless overeater rather than an Olympian.

Phelps lends a new spin to the phrase "Breakfast of Champions" by starting off his day by eating three fried-egg sandwiches loaded with cheese, lettuce, tomatoes, fried onions and mayonnaise.

He follows that up with two cups of coffee, a five-egg omelet, a bowl of grits, three slices of French toast topped with powdered sugar and three chocolate-chip pancakes.

At lunch, Phelps gobbles up a pound of enriched pasta and two large ham and cheese sandwiches slathered with mayo on white bread - capping off the meal by chugging about 1,000 calories worth of energy drinks.

For dinner, Phelps really loads up on the carbs - what he needs to give him plenty of energy for his five-hours-a-day, six-days-a-week regimen - with a pound of pasta and an entire pizza.

He washes all that down with another 1,000 calories worth of energy drinks.

Phelps remains on course to at least equal Mark Spitz's record of seven gold medals won at the 1972 Munich Games.

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Ukraine has no plans to change terms of Russian BSF stay in Crimea --official

18.08.2008, 23.46

KIEV, August 18 (Itar-Tass) -- Ukraine has no plans to change the terms of stay for the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea, presidential secretariat deputy chief Alexander Shlapak said.

“We will act in strict compliance with international agreements,” Shlapak said.

“Based on our philosophy, this will protect us from various conflicts. We are not going to run anywhere, attack or provoke anyone,” he said.

He said Kiev has no legal right to forbid the Russian Black Sea Fleet ships to return to their base in Sevastopol.

“We have no legal grounds to demand certain responsibility from the Russian Black Sea Fleet,” he said.

However, acting chairman of the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council Valentin Nalivaichenko called for initiating the creation of an international commission for assessing the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s actions in Georgia and help work out a mechanism of control over its operations.

“We think Ukraine needs to appeal to the U.N. and the OSCE with an initiative to create a special international commission, with Georgia’s participation, first of all in order to assess Russia’s use of the Black Sea Fleet temporarily deployed in Ukraine against Georgia, and secondly, in order to work out a regime of control over the Russian Black Sea Fleet,” Nalivaichenko said in an interview with the Zerkalo Nedeli (Mirror of the Week) weekly.

He also called for hiring international experts to work in the sub-commission on the Black Sea Fleet within the international Ukraine-Russia commission.

He believes it necessary to investigate all cases when Russian Black Sea Fleet sail to sea to find out if this is consistent with Ukrainian legislation and international agreements.

Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko enacted two decisions adopted by the National Security and Defence Council regarding the movement of the Russian Black Sea Fleet outside its base in the Crimea.

According to the decisions, warships or planes may only cross Ukraine’ s state border after at least a 72-hour prior notice top the Ukrainian General Staff.

The notice should also contain information about arms, ammunition and explosives, and military equipment.

If a request is approved, the Black Sea Fleet command should inform the headquarters of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea regional branch of the state border guard service and the relevant customs authority of Ukraine about the departure of warships at least 24 hours prior.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry and Justice Ministry have been instructed to look into the situation regarding the return to Sevastopol of a group of ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet patrolling Georgia’s coast, First Vice Prime Minister Alexander Turchinov said.

“The Foreign Ministry and Justice Ministry will look into the matter and make an official conclusion which will be made known to the public,” Turchinov said.

A dispute arose in Kiev between the two ministries regarding the legal aspects of the participation of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet ships, based in Crimea, in military operations.

Yushchenko had earlier described as a dangerous precedent the use of Russian Black Sea Fleet ships in military operations or blockage in the Black Sea area.

On August 10, Ukraine warned Russia against a possible participation of the Black Sea Fleet in the conflict in South Ossetia.

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Basic Economics of Oil Well
18.08.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/business/finance/106126-Economics_Oil_Well-0

Mark S. McGrew

Exxon reported earnings of $40 billion last year. They produce 2.6 million barrels of oil per day (BOPD), with 7 billion barrels in reserve. They produce about 1 billion barrels per year, with an after expense earning of approximately $40 per barrel.

An average oil well in the United States of America, excluding Alaska and Hawaii, produces about 20 BOPD. Some wells produce in the thousands of BOPD.

A small well, of 20 BOPD may cost $500,000 to drill. 20 BOPD selling at $100 produces an income of $720,000 per year. Costs to produce that oil must be taken out. Costs to produce can be royalty payments to the owner of the land, getting the oil to a refinery, taxes, maintenance and miscellaneous other fees. By subtracting these costs, we can assume that the oil is only going to produce an income of 75% of the market price of oil. Maybe less in some cases.

Suppose, the income to the producer of that oil is $75 per barrel, which would be $540,000 a year. That small well will produce for 7 to 15 years, and actually starts declining in the middle of the term until it eventually stops producing.

From the $540,000 per year, the producer pays back the investors who paid to make that well. The investors will get 75% of the revenue, or $400,000 and the producer will end up with $140,000 per year for a few years, until the well starts to decline. The investors get back their money in a little more than a year. That is an “average” well.

Suppose we want to do better than average. We need to spend more money for geology, more money for land and more money to drill. A conservative example would be that we are going to spend $4 million, hoping to find 300 BOPD.

There is NEVER a guarantee that you will produce oil. It matters not what anybody says, you will never know if the oil is in the spot you chose to drill, until the oil actually comes flowing up and out. A well can be drilled into a proven producing field and the driller can still make a mistake, or a miscalculation and you end up with nothing. The best geologists in the world make dry holes some times. The biggest companies on Earth, make dry holes sometimes.

In the early 1980s a huge structure, in the Arctic Ocean, north of Alaska, USA was drilled. After spending $2 billion they discovered salt water. This was the Mukluk.

Anyone who guarantees that “the oil is there” is either stupid or lying.

Let’s take a chance with $4 million. We buy the land, pay the geologists, drill the well and we hit a 300 BOPD well that will produce for 10 to 15 years.

Using the formulas above, we sell the oil for $75 a barrel, giving us $8 million a year. The investor gets 75% of that, or $6 Million a year and has his money back in a year. The producer earns $2 million a year and can buy himself a new car, every two weeks.

Now we’re making money! Money is a weapon.

Now we can hunt for bigger game and instead of hunting rabbits or deer, we can go out for an elephant, something that can feed the whole village for a long time.

Many people who live there, call it God’s country. Alaska. The last frontier. Where the cold wind blows and the timid don’t go. Home of Mukluk.

We spend $7 million and get land, geology, equipment and drill in the Cook Inlet of Alaska, and like others before us, we get lucky and hit what would be an “average” oil well in Cook Inlet.

1,000 BOPD. Now, we’re not only making money, we’re having fun doing it.

1,000 BOPD, selling for a net price of $75, pays the investors $20 million a year. And one of the fun parts is, this well won’t die in five years, or fifteen. It will reach old age in 20 years or more and still produce as it gradually slows down.

The producer’s 25% will make him $6 million a year. Now if he wants a new car, he can just take one off the lot of the new car dealership he is going to buy.

And the oil pool he hit is big enough to drill ten more wells, and maybe he only gets oil from five of them. He will make $30 million a year, have a problem spending it all, and as most Americans do when they make a lot of money, he will donate large sums to a charity. Now, not only is he making enough money for his own family and his future generations, he is contributing to the lives of many unfortunate people, some of whom, will grow up and do the same thing he did. Americans are the most charitable people on Earth. That is a fact of life.

And if he is smart, and lucky, he brought his investors to a site that holds One BILLION barrels of oil. And if so, this producer and his investors are now 1/6 the size of Exxon in oil reserves.

Fields on the Kenai Peninsula and offshore in the Cook Inlet have produced a cumulative total of 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil and 5.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. How much is left in those known fields and how much more is there yet to be discovered?

From conception to production, that level can be reached in less than ten years.

But, our producer friend is not happy. He enjoys the game too much to retire. He wants more thrill, more excitement and more oil. He has enough money and talent that he can go anywhere in the world and play with his friends. But he caught a rare disease: The Alaska Bug.

There is only one cure and that is on the North Slope of Alaska, where the polar bears roam, above the Arctic Circle.

An average well is 3,000 BOPD and some have come in at 10,000 BOPD and more.

He buys land, equipment, brains, and rough tough rock hard men who enjoy the life or death excitement of six months of daylight and six months of darkness in one of the most hostile environments on Earth. They thrive in the Arctic!

He decides to drill 20 oil wells and hits on the first one. 2,000 BOPD. He has committed to spending $10 million on each well. Two Hundred Million Dollars.

That 2,000 BOPD well will pay his investors back their entire $200 million in five years. It will earn him $13 million a year for 30 years or more.

The next 19 wells come in at an average of 2,000 BOPD. It’s no longer rocket science. They found three 300 million barrel oil fields and now are 1/3 the size of Exxon. It will take ten to twenty years. But it took Exxon over 100 years to get where they are today.

The investors will make $810 MILLION a year for 30 years, or more. $25 billion from a $200 million risk. The producer will make $8 Billion over the life of the wells, if he lives that long.

The investors and the producer set up a Trust Fund for 20% of their earnings to go to various charities, with 80% of that being paid out each year. $160 million can buy a lot of medicine, clothes, housing, education, or legal fees to fight oppression etc. etc.

And that is one more reason why we call Alaska, “God’s Country”.

The above scenarios have been accomplished in Cook Inlet by several companies. The North Slope scenario has been performed by Robert Anderson of Arco discovering 20 billion barrels on the North Slope and a new player in town is Pioneer Natural Resources from Texas.

Pioneer has a 50 well program to spend $500 million and on June 9th of 2008, their first producing well came in at 2,000 to 3,000 BOPD. Their entire investment is secured.

There is indeed a trap in the Cook Inlet that may hold 1.5 billion barrels of oil.

The men, the situations, the production and the charitable scenarios have already happened and can happen again. The North Slope has produced over 15 billion barrels and still has at the least, another proven 13 billion barrels in the ground, just in the Prudhoe Bay field.

Mark McGrew has been active in the Alaska oil business for over 20 years. His website is at MincOil.com or you may email him at McGrewMX@aol.com

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高齢の親と同居なら減税拡大？　総選挙控え浮上（1/2ページ）

2008年8月19日1時49分

　０９年度税制改正で、７０歳以上の親と同居している世帯を対象に、所得税の減税を拡大する案が浮上している。総選挙を控え、高齢者対策の１項目として検討が進む可能性がある。ただ、家族との同居などライフスタイルに関係なく公平な税制を目指す最近の税制改正の流れには逆行することになり、反発の声もあがりそうだ。

　「個人としての考えだが、家族同居を推進するということであれば老親扶養加算を少し（多く）とってあげたらどうか」。伊吹財務相は今月初めの就任会見でこう述べた。

　高齢の親との同居に伴う減税は、所得税控除の「同居老親等加算」といわれる。７０歳以上の親と常に同居している場合、所得税の控除額が親１人につき１０万円ずつ増える。

　後期高齢者医療制度の導入で、子供の健康保険の扶養家族となっていた高齢者からも保険料が徴収されることになった。伊吹財務相は「従来一番日本が伝統的に大切にしてきた家族」を重視し、同居を促す別の仕組みがあった方が良い、との考えを会見で披露した。

　同居老親等加算により、現在は総額約３００億円の税金が免除されている。仮に控除額を２倍にした場合はさらに同額の税収減となる。景気後退で法人税収の落ち込みが懸念されるなか、減税を拡充すればさらに厳しい財政運営を迫られるのは必至。伊吹財務相も現時点では、「財政事情が許さなければできない」としている。

　また、最近の税制改正は、「一人ひとりのライフスタイルの選択を税制ができる限り阻害しないことが重要」（０７年政府税制調査会答申）との方向で進められており、「親と同居すべきかどうかは価値観の問題。いまの税制改正の流れにも沿わない」（政府税調関係者）との声もある。

　一方で、与党内には伊吹財務相と同様の声がくすぶる。５月末に自民党の合同部会がまとめた高齢者対策でも、３世代同居世帯などを対象にした所得税や不動産取得税の軽減案が盛り込まれた。

　後期高齢者医療制度が高齢者から酷評されているため、与党内には「政府は高齢者に冷たい」との批判を和らげる手を打ちたい、という思いがある。こうした声は、総選挙が近づくにつれ一層高まる可能性がある。

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University language degrees drop by a quarter
The number of students taking a language degree at university has fallen by almost a quarter in a decade.

By Jessica Salter
Last Updated: 1:57PM BST 19 Aug 2008

Researchers found that German was the worst hit subject with only 610 students accepted onto a degree course last year compared with 2,288 10 years ago, while French students have plummeted by a third from 5,655 to 3,700.

Overall, language degrees fell by 20 per cent, researchers from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) at the University of London and the University of Stirling found.

The study warned that graduates without language skills would be seen as less attractive by employers.

Professor Itesh Sachdev, who co-authored the report, said: "Employers ranging from law firms to multinational banks, to major aid and development organisations confirmed that applicants with languages were, at the very least, viewed more favourably than those without.

"Some stated categorically that they would not employ people who spoke only English.

"For some companies, the specific languages were immaterial: they saw students with languages as much more flexible and adaptable, more likely to appreciate the need for intercultural communication skills and more able to build relationships with counterparts or clients in other countries."

However they also found that an uptake in newly-available languages, such as Mandarin and Arabic, had started to slow the "steep decline" of language degrees in the first half of the decade.

Mandarin students had almost doubled to 392, which researchers said this reflected an awareness that languages were valuable to understanding "areas of emerging economic and political importance" such as China, Russia and the Middle East.

The researchers also argued that British students should be given the opportunity to learn four of the most common community languages in Britain - Urdu, Cantonese, Punjabi and Bengali.

About 6,000 youngsters now take Urdu at GCSE, with 600 continuing to A-level, while more than 2,000 study Mandarin at A-level.

The SOAS has since announced that it is to begin a degree course in Bengali from next month.