GDP cut holds up German recovery

GDP cut holds up German recovery

By Bertrand Benoit in Berlin

Published: August 5 2008 12:37 | Last updated: August 5 2008 20:13

The German economy unexpectedly contracted by about 1 per cent in the second quarter, it emerged on Tuesday, the clearest sign to date that the robust recovery in Europe’s largest economy is coming to an end.

News of the contraction – twice as fast as most economists had forecast – came in a report by the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper on economic figures due to be officially released next week.

Government officials initially declined to confirm the report but one later told the Financial Times: “The contraction will be in the order of magnitude of minus one per cent.” The official added: “Bear in mind, though, that this is partly a correction after the exceptionally good first quarter.”

Economists said this decline in economic output, if confirmed, would be surprisingly steep and show that the German economy, like that of the continent as a whole, faced a period of stagnation following two years of remarkable growth.

“This would show a disappointing underlying momentum,” said Dirk Schumacher at Goldman Sachs. “Germany is now showing signs of real weakness.”

The Federal Statistical Office, which will publish the official second quarter figure on Thursday next week, and the economics ministry, which compiles the government’s own growth estimates, both declined to comment on Tuesday.

Economists said the federal statistical office was still poring over production, trade and orders data that could slightly alter the final GDP growth figure.

“I was expecting growth this year of 2.3 per cent,” said Elga Bartsch, an economist at Morgan Stanley. “But if this [second quarter figure] is confirmed, I will probably end up below 2 per cent.”

The 1.5 per cent jump in growth registered in the first quarter – the fastest increase in almost 12 years – meant analysts had anticipated a downward correction in the three months to June.

A partial consensus growth estimate by Reuters for the second quarter, based on a poll of seven analysts, showed average GDP expectations for the quarter at -0.5 per cent on Tuesday.

Yet recent signs, including disappointing business confidence surveys and a sharp fall in industrial output in May, suggest the continent’s economic powerhouse is losing steam faster than had been anticipated only a few months ago.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, warned about tough economic times ahead two weeks ago.

Economists played down suggestions that the unusual leaking of the GDP data out of Berlin could be intended to influence the European Central Bank ahead of its scheduled meeting on Thursday, when it is expected to leave interest rates on hold.

“The ECB is very much aware of the weakness in the German economy,” said Mr Schumacher. “But a lot more would need to happen before it is persuaded to cut rates.”

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The Short View: Reaction to the Fed

By John Authers, Investment Editor

Published: August 5 2008 21:48 | Last updated: August 5 2008 21:48

The commodities market stole the Federal Reserve’s thunder on Tuesday – and nobody at the central bank will complain.

Shortly before the Fed’s open market committee announced that it would leave its target Fed Funds rate unchanged at 2 per cent, the Dow Jones-AIG non-energy commodities index slipped into negative territory for the year. Crude oil dropped below $120 per barrel for the first time in three months. That fuelled a good day for equities.

If commodities keep this up, they will aggressively put a lid on inflationary expectations – the job the Fed had over the past few weeks been bracing to do itself.

The Fed’s statement left its options open. The one change of any significance was to describe the inflation outlook as “highly uncertain” rather than “high” – a very gentle move away from raising rates.

As in June, only one member voted for higher rates. As some had thought two governors might vote to raise, this made the package a bit more “dovish” than expected, prompting a very brief sell-off of dollars.

But, for now, second-guessing the Fed matters less than the commodities action.

The key is to decipher whether this is a mere correction to an ongoing bull market. If so, prices will soon rise again and the pressure to raise rates will return. But if commodities are reacting to a perceived global slowdown, fighting inflation is the last of anyone’s concerns.

The greatest surprise is the muted change to market rate forecasts. Fed Funds futures show that expectations of rate rises have diminished since oil at $145 per barrel brought the inflation scare to its peak. But they still signal a 50/50 chance of a rate rise at one of the next two Fed meetings.

In the midst of a financial crisis, this sounds like wishful thinking, unless traders believe the fall in commodity prices is merely a temporary correction.

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The Short View: Falling oil

By John Authers, Investment Editor

Published: August 5 2008 19:17 | Last updated: August 5 2008 19:17

The slick from the sudden fall in oil prices is spreading. Cheaper oil is good for the economy but investors face a risk of accidents as traders retreat from the expectation that the oil price would continue rising.

The most obvious casualties are energy stocks. Their share prices indicated that the stock market never believed the highest crude prices were sustainable. From crude’s brief dip below $50 a barrel in January last year, until its peak last month, it gained 183.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 energy index of US stocks gained only 43.9 per cent, and the MSCI World energy index rose only 29.7 per cent, in local currency terms.

Yet energy stocks have still fallen more than the underlying oil price. Indeed, they are now in a bear market; S&P’s energy index is down 20.5 per cent since it peaked in May, almost two months before the top of the crude market. The MSCI index is off almost 19.7 per cent. The crude price is down only 16.3 per cent from its peak.

With energy stocks one of the most popular vehicles for hedge funds playing the oil boom, they have sold off disproportionately.

Another casualty: the big oil-exporting emerging markets that were viewed as a geared play on the commodity boom. Both Brazil’s and Russia’s stock markets peaked at the same time as global energy stocks. Since then, Brazil’s Bovespa is down 24.3 per cent, while the dollar-denominated Russian RTS index has shed 27.3 per cent.

There is one asset class that conspicuously has not yet joined the list of casualties: oil exporters’ currencies.

Brazil’s real has appreciated 4.2 per cent against the dollar since energy stocks peaked in May; and by an astonishing 35.6 per cent since oil was last at $50 a barrel. The rouble has also gained slightly since May, and is up 12.8 per cent against the dollar since January last year. How long can this last?

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Britain looks at long-term role in Iraq

By Stephen Fidler in London

Published: August 6 2008 02:15 | Last updated: August 6 2008 02:15

Britain has begun negotiations with the government in Baghdad on a long-term military commitment to Iraq that UK officials say could leave significant numbers of UK troops in the country beyond next year.

The Ministry of Defence envisages a possible longer-term relationship with the Iraqi military similar to the type that the UK has with other armed forces in the region, such as those of Oman or Jordan. Some officials are keen to counteract media reports that by the middle of next year substantially all British troops will be out of Iraq.

The government is hoping that next year conditions in Iraq will be right for a big cut in troop numbers from the 4,000 now based there. But after that, they say, Britain expects to retain a long-term role that could mean UK troops in Iraq would number in the hundreds or low thousands.

Officials say no decisions have been made, but the longer term roles for UK forces could include training Iraqi staff officers and non-commissioned officers for the army, and training the country’s navy, marines and air force. The outcome also depends on the posture taken by the US, which – if current security improvements in Iraq continue – is also likely to reduce troop numbers in the country.

UK officials say it is possible that US troops may shift southward. This is in part because some troop contingents, including from Poland, have pulled out from regions south of Baghdad but also because US equipment being removed from the country will have to leave it from the south, either through the ports of Basra and Umm Qasr or through Kuwait.

Some of the UK’s longer-term roles could potentially be performed outside Iraq. But once a British role had been decided, other decisions would ensue about how many troops would be needed to provide force protection and logistics, officials said. “There are some big ifs,” one official said.

The main role for the 4,000 UK troops at present is to finish training the 14th division of the Iraqi army, where British troops are also embedded inside Iraqi operational units. The UK also expects to finalise shifting the airport at Basra over to Iraqi control, including the training of air traffic controllers so that they can operate the airport at night.

That could happen in the first half of next year, after which troop numbers could fall substantially.

The US is negotiating an agreement with the Iraqi government to provide legal authority for foreign troops to remain in the country after a United Nations mandate runs out at the end of this year. A sharp reduction in violence in Iraq since last year has led the Bush administration to talk of a “time horizon” for pulling US troops out of Iraq.

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Puppies of hero pit bull Booger are world's first commercial clones
Bernann McKinney from the U.S. holds one of five cloned pitbull pupies

Leo Lewis

Read our Perfect Pets section

A dog is not just for Christmas, or even for life. If you’ve got the cash, it could be for eternity.

South Korean biotechnologists have engineered a pet resurrection that, until recently, seemed commercially impossible: they have reunited a Californian woman with her dearest friend — or, at least, genetic copies derived from the frozen remains of his ear.

More than £25,000 the poorer but weeping with joy, Bernann McKinney, 57, became the world’s first paying customer yesterday in the strange new industry of canine cloning.
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Held in her arms was a quintet of newborn puppies, genetically identical not only with each other but with the late, lamented Booger, a pitbull terrier who died of old age two years ago.

Declaring the whole affair a “miracle”, Ms McKinney said: “They are perfectly the same as their daddy. I am in heaven here. I am a happy person.”

Ms McKinney paid a high financial price for the reunion. Even at the knockdown fee offered to her as a first-time cloner, she had to sell her house to meet the cost.

“I had to make sacrifices and I dream of the day, some day, when everyone can afford to clone their pet, because losing a pet is a terrible, terrible loss to anyone,” she said.

After ten years of happy companionship, Ms McKinney felt the loss of Booger keenly. This was, after all, a ferociously loyal hound who had once saved her life by fending off an attacking mastiff.

Ms McKinney’s hand and legs were savaged in the attack and, she said, it was only via Booger’s loyal assistance — fetching her clothes and shoes, bringing her cans of drink and opening doors — that she was able to make it through the long months of recuperation.

The mastiff, another of Ms McKinney’s pets, had been driven mad by being given ten times the recommended dose of medication for a bee sting, she said. She has told US media how the animal attacked her outside her remote farmhouse, shredding her left arm up to the elbow, tearing one of her legs and nearly ripping the fingers off her right hand.

He was chewing at her stomach when she said she called out: “Help me, God. Help me, Jesus. Help me, Booger,” and the smaller dog succeeded in driving off the mastiff long enough for her to drag herself into the safety of her car.

Ms McKinney, a former beauty queen, had to undergo many episodes of reconstructive surgery and was confined to a wheelchair for months.

The world of pet cloning is not free from scandal. The cloning operation was undertaken by RNL Bio, a company working with scientists at Seoul National University and which announced yesterday that it was open for dog-cloning business worldwide.

It was in the university’s laboratories that, to the joy of South Koreans, the world’s first cloned dog was born in 2005: an Afghan hound named Seoul National University Puppy, or Snuppy.

Since then, other dogs have been cloned without charge; copies of the best police sniffer dogs have been born in recent months and have begun their training with the South Korean customs service.

Not long after the birth of Snuppy, however, Hwang Woo Suk, the genetic engineer regarded as a national hero, was forced out of the university in disgrace. After triumphing with dog cloning he had moved on to work in human embryonic stem cells; unfortunately, parts of his research were exposed as fraudulent and he left for the United States. Mr Hwang now works for BioArts International, a company that is fighting RNL Bio over claims of patent infringement.

RNL Bio said that it could clone up to 300 dogs next year and would consider cloning camels for wealthy Middle Eastern clients.

The cloning of Booger realises a commercial dream that began more than ten years ago. In 1997, when Scottish scientists cloned Dolly the sheep, biotech laboratories around the world began to explore which other animals might be reproduced. A number of species worked well, but dogs present peculiar obstacles because of their unpredictable ovulation cycle and difficulties extracting a mature egg.

In California, entrepreneurs now involved with RNL Bio’s main rival in the dog-cloning field set up a company called Genetic Savings and Clone. Despite producing a few cloned cats, it folded only months before the birth of Snuppy, citing the difficulties that it had encountered in cloning dogs.

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Japanese banks

Published: August 5 2008 12:56 | Last updated: August 5 2008 22:31

Japan, which wrote the book on banking crises in the late 1990s, still has an uncanny knack for bolting global worst practice on to a lacklustre homegrown business model. The banks take in more deposits than they can lend and funnel the difference into domestic securities. In recent years, they have spiced up the mix with toxic securitised products. Conversely, they have spectacularly failed to import lucrative or customer-friendly practices, failing, for example, to encourage credit card usage or provide 24-hour ATMs.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Japan’s biggest bank by assets, is a case in point. The group’s recurring profits tumbled by one quarter to $2.5bn in its first quarter compared with the same period last year. Indeed, just about the only line on the income statement that actually rose was expenses. Loans blipped higher (with all the growth coming from overseas) but net interest income, which makes up the bulk of profits, was flat. Fee income and trading profits both shrank while provisions and loan write-offs jumped by almost a half to about $1.3bn.

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Arrests in Syria follow murder of general

By Ferry Biedermann in Beirut

Published: August 6 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 6 2008 03:00

The Syrian authorities have made several arrests related to the murder of a senior military adviser to Bashar al-Assad, the president, Arab media reported yesterday.

Although neither Syria's official nor privately owned media have mentioned the case, reports of the assassination of General Mohammed Suleiman have led to speculation about internal divisions in Syria's ruling circle.

Gen Suleiman was killed by sniper fire in the port city of Tartous on Friday, several Arab media have said.

There is no confirmation from Syria on the position that Gen Suleiman held but it is claimed he was the government's liaison with Lebanon's Hizbollah movement, the militant group closely allied with Damascus and Tehran which waged a war with Israel in 2006. A Hizbollah spokesman in Lebanon has said the group was not familiar with Gen Suleiman.

The killing comes six months after the assassination in Damascus of Imad Moughniyeh, a senior Hizbollah commander. Hizbollah has accused Israel of the bomb attack in which he died but the office of Ehud Olmert, the prime minister, issued a denial at the time. Israel has now also denied "any direct knowledge" of the killing of Gen Suleiman.

Syria has yet to report on its investigation into Moughniyeh's killing. In the wake of his death, Syrian opposition figures talked of splits within the country's security services. The killing of Gen Suleiman has rekindled the speculation.

Syria and Israel earlier this year disclosed they were holding peace talks under Turkish mediation. President Assad visited Ankara yesterday, in the wake of a visit to Iran, and peace talks were expected to be on the agenda. In Iran, Mr Assad tried to propose Syria as a mediator in that country's nuclear dispute with the international community.

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Eleven charged in US over ID theft

By Joanna Chung in New York

Published: August 6 2008 01:53 | Last updated: August 6 2008 01:53

US prosecutors said on Tuesday they had charged 11 people in connection with a hacking ring that allegedly stole and sold more than 40m credit and debit card numbers from nine US retailers in what could be the country’s biggest identity theft case.

The scheme involved residents of at least five countries who breached security systems and installed programs that gathered personal financial data which they sold to others or used themselves, prosecutors claimed in indictments unsealed in Boston and San Diego on Tuesday.

Three of the defendants are US citizens, one is from Estonia, three are from Ukraine, two are from China and one is from Belarus. One individual is only known by an alias online, and his place of origin is unknown, prosecutors said.

“So far as we know, this is the single largest and most complex identity theft case ever charged in this country,” said Michael Mukasey, US attorney-general, who added that the case highlighted “our increasing vulnerability” to personal information theft.

The cost of the scheme, which targeted retailers – including Marshalls and TJ Maxx – “is impossible to quantify at this point”, but was probably in the tens of millions of dollars, he said. At the heart of the ring was Albert “Segvec” Gonzalez of Miami, who was working as a confidential informant for the Secret Service when investigators discovered he was criminally involved in the case, prosecutors said.

He and his co-conspirators allegedly obtained credit and debit card numbers by “wardriving” – driving around in a car with a laptop computer looking for accessible wireless networks. Once inside, they used “sniffer” programs that would capture card details. They then concealed the data in encrypted computer servers they controlled in Eastern Europe and the US, and allegedly sold some numbers to other criminals via the internet, prosecutors said. The stolen numbers were “cashed out” by encoding card numbers on the magnetic strips of blank cards that were used to withdraw tens of thousands of dollars at ATMs.

Three of the defendants – Mr Gonzalez, Maksym “Maksik” Yastremskiy of Ukraine, and Aleksandr “Jonny Hell” Suvorov, of Estonia – were also charged in May in a related indictment.

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OMV no longer interested in MOL

VIENNA, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Austrian oil and gas group OMV said on Wednesday it would no longer pursue Hungarian rival MOL following a year-long standoff, saying the European Commission demanded unacceptable concessions.

The European Union’s executive body had raised concerns that a deal between OMV and MOL would create competition problems and could lead to higher prices, indicating that OMV might have to sell one of the refineries to get any deal approved.

”The European Commission has indicated that it would not accept commitments that OMV had proposed,” OMV said in a statement. ”Since other commitments would be unacceptable to OMV, OMV has decided to withdraw the merger notification.”

”Further pursuit of proposed combination with MOL under given conditions would be against OMV’s economic and strategic rationale,” OMV said.

OMV also on Wednesday reported a better-than-expected 86 per cent increase in second-quarter operating earnings after one-off items, driven by high oil prices on Wednesday.

Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) rose to €1.083bn ($1.68bn) after stripping out one-off items in the three months to June. Analysts had on average forecast a 59 per cent rise to €928m.

Net profit after minority interests rose 66 percent to €684m, while analysts had expected €599m.

OMV reiterated its full-year outlook, saying it expected to deliver further robust earnings thanks to field developments in its upstream operations as well as optimisation in downstream units and expansion in its gas business.

OMV’s stock has fallen nearly 24 per cent since the start of the year, roughly in line with the Austrian blue-chip index ATX. Analysts have cited the standoff with MOL as the biggest uncertainty around the stock.

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Producers scramble to lock in oil prices

By Javier Blas in London

Published: August 5 2008 21:31 | Last updated: August 5 2008 21:31

Crude oil and natural gas producers are scrambling to “lock in” prices by buying insurance against further drops in prices, as oil on Tuesday hit a fresh three-month low of $118 a barrel.

Oil prices have fallen almost 20 per cent from last month’s record $147.27 a barrel, offering the prospect of a respite from global inflationary pressures and boosting US equities. The Dow Jones index was up 331 points, or 2.9 per cent, by the close in New York.

In the options market over the last week, for every buyer of insurance against a rise in prices in 2009 there were almost 10 buyers of protection against a fall.

Traders said strong buying of put options – contracts that give holders the right to sell crude oil at a predetermined price and date – might be exacerbating the fall in oil prices. The options’ originators, such as Wall Street banks, need to sell futures – pushing down prices – to hedge their option positions.

The number of financial bets providing insurance against a fall in prices below $100 a barrel before the end of the year has more than doubled in the past six weeks, according to the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Tuesday there were more than 46,000 outstanding contracts for Nymex December 2008 put options at $100 a barrel, up about 135 per cent on late June.

Traders said a single market participant, believed to be a Latin American national oil company, had in the past 10 days taken a large position in put options to protect itself against a drop below $70 by December 2009.

Gareth Lewis-Davies of Dresdner Kleinwort said that – as well as signs of demand weakness, particularly in the US but also in Europe and Japan – there had been a jump in production by members of Opec, the oil producers’ cartel, as Saudi Arabia ramped up its output.

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Conundrum of subsidies

By Alan Beattie in London

Published: August 5 2008 16:32 | Last updated: August 5 2008 16:32

The Roman empire handed out free bread and put on circuses to keep its population happy. Today, subsidising the cost of living means keeping a lid on fuel as well as food prices. With the energy and food crises inflating the cost of subsidies across the developing world, governments are being forced down a route the World Bank and development economists have urged for years: cushioning poor families by targeted cash payments delinked from the cost of hydrocarbons and carbohydrates.

Energy subventions are expensive. According to a survey of International Monetary Fund economists, explicit fuel subsidies in a sample of developing countries averaged 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product last year, and implicit subsidies through price manipulations, a hefty 4 per cent.

Even some oil-exporting countries, where subsidies are easier to afford, are rethinking them. In Iran, where petrol costs 11 cents a litre, President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad last month said that aid to buy fuel would be paid by cash into the bank accounts of poor people. The artificially low price of fuel not only costs the government some $97bn in forgone revenue but also encourages smuggling.

There is interest in “conditional cash transfer” schemes where families get assistance in return for socially beneficial behaviour such as keeping children in school. The idea was pioneered in Mexico and spread to Brazil. It is gaining footholds across Africa and Asia.

Introducing such schemes is not straightforward. Jeffrey Lewis, a development finance expert at the World Bank, says: “To move to an outcome that targets the poor, you need to have a reasonably good administrative system in place. In many of the poorest countries they are weak or small in scope.”

The programmes have been boosted by better technology, particularly the smart-cards and cash-cards used in developing countries. Mr Lewis says the revolution in remittance finance, helping migrants send savings home, has connected many more poor families to financial services networks that can be used for government benefit payments. In Malawi, one of the poorest countries, schemes in the UN-supported Millennium Villages development project have distributed cash-cards to local people.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle to making the move remains the political risk to removing ceilings on energy and food costs. Even Mexico, though it has increased payouts through its “Oportunidades” cash transfer programme to meet higher food costs, maintains expensive fuel subsidies on top.

In India, the government has long controlled fuel costs with a complex system of state-run distribution systems and price controls. In particular, kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) used for cooking are heavily subsidised.

Economists say the LPG subsidy is an inefficient and badly targeted way of helping the poor, as it is disproportionately used by better-off urban households. Even kerosene, used by the urban poor for cooking, is used by both rich and poor in the countryside. About half the subsidised kerosene never makes it to cooking stoves, but is diverted to vehicle fuel tanks.

Three researchers: Devesh Kapur of the University of Pennsylvania; Partha Mukhopadhyay from the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi; and Arvind Subramanian from the Peterson Institute in Washington calculate that all India’s rural poor could be lifted above the poverty line if the Rs1,800bn ($76.5bn, €49.4bn, £39.1bn) India spends annually on centralised handouts were made direct transfers.

“When the expenditure on [centralised schemes] and subsidies in the name of the poor is enough to lift all poor people out of income poverty, and yet more than 300m people remain poor, it is imperative that India undertake a radical shift.”

As energy subsidies are often captured by the well-off, there is organised opposition to reducing them. Proposals to reform fuel handouts in India met storms of protest; about a dozen petrol stations in Iran were set on fire last June when the government rationed petrol.

Moving to cash transfers may help the poor. But in developing countries, the poor rarely have the loudest voices.

INDONESIA AID DELIGHTS POOR

Ferry Santoso, a construction worker in east Jakarta, is delighted the Indonesia cut fuel subsidies in May and distributed much of the savings in cash handouts to the poorest 19.1m households, or about 40 per cent of the population, writes John Aglionby in Jakarta.

“Why should people who can afford cars get such cheap petrol when I, who will never own a car, don’t get such help and have to pay more for basic goods?”

Like all the recipients, Mr Ferry, who earns about Rp500,000 ($55, €35, £27) a month, is receiving an extra Rp100,000 a month this year and, depending on parliamentary approval, for at least the first quarter of 2009.

This is the second time President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has used unconditional cash transfers to help the poor weather the shock of rising oil prices after a similar move in October 2005.

Unlike other direct aid schemes, such as subsidised rice, recipients love cash transfers because distribution is via the post office and so bypasses Indonesia’s notoriously corrupt bureaucracy.

It is estimated that more than 90 per cent of the 2005/06 handouts reached their intended target.

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Siemens wants out of PC venture with Fujitsu: report
AFP
AFP - 39 minutes ago

FRANKFURT (AFP) - The German engineering group Siemens wants to sell its half of a computer joint venture with Fujitsu of Japan, a press report said on Monday, quoting people familiar with the matter.

Siemens has told Fujitsu it wants to pull out of their nine-year-old venture known as FSC, and Fujitsu has an option to buy the German company's share, though it was not sure the Japanese firm would do so, the Wall Street Journal Europe reported.

It quoted Fujitsu president Kuniaki Nozoe as saying on Tuesday that mobile phones were a more promising way of increasing foreign sales than personal computers.

One possible buyer, the report said, was Lenovo Group of China, which bought IBM's personal computer division in 2005.

According to the newspaper, based on Lenovo's present worth, the Fujitsu Siemens venture might be worth around four billion dollars (2.6 billion euros).

Spokesmen for Siemens declined to comment, the report said, while Fujitsu and FSC could not be reached for comment.

The venture had 6.6 billion euros in sales in its latest fiscal year, but faces stiff competition from the US companies Dell and Hewlett-Packard.

FSC, which also makes main-frame computers and servers, posted a pre-tax profit of 105 million euros last year, and has forecast that figure could double this year.

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Bank of England could spring surprise interest rate hike: analysts
AFP
By Roland Jackson AFP - Wednesday, August 6 03:45 am

LONDON (AFP) - The Bank of England could shock markets with an interest rate hike on Thursday to keep inflation in check, despite expectations for no change because of slower economic growth, analysts said.
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Most economists think the British central bank's rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC) will leave rates at 5.00 percent for the fourth straight month after a two-day meet that starts on Wednesday.

However, pundits are not ruling out a surprise quarter-point hike to 5.25 percent after British 12-month inflation spiked to a 16-year high in June on the back of surging food and fuel prices.

The European Central Bank was also forecast to keep eurozone borrowing costs at 4.25 percent on Thursday amid concerns about record eurozone inflation coupled with sluggish economic growth.

On Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve left American interest rates at 2.0 percent, given the weakness of the world's biggest economy.

Analysts warned that British inflation would spike even higher in the coming months because of recent steep price increases from domestic gas and electricity suppliers.

Energy firm Centrica last week hiked its gas prices by 35 percent because of the rocketing cost of wholesale energy.

"Pressures for higher rates are likely to linger on the committee," said Investec economist Philip Shaw, who is calling for no change this month.

"Overall we cannot entirely rule out the risk that the committee will sanction higher rates this time.

He added: "Centrica's 35 percent increase in domestic tariffs suggests that inflation will hit 5.0 percent."

The country's annual inflation rate spiked to 3.8 percent in June -- which was almost twice the Bank of England's official inflation target of 2.0 percent.

Britain's economy, meanwhile, grew by only 0.2 percent in the April to June period compared with the first three months of 2008.

That was the slowest pace of economic growth for more than three years and brought Britain closer to the threat of recession -- which is defined as two or more successive quarters of negative growth.

"Inflationary pressures continue to prevent the MPC from cutting rates in response to the deteriorating real economy," added Capital Economics analyst Vicky Redwood.

"In fact, if interest rates change this month, they are more likely to go up than down."

The nine-member MPC was split three ways when they left interest rates unchanged last month, reflecting the dilemma they face in controlling soaring inflation whilst seeking to boost growth.

The committee voted 7-2 to leave rates at 5.00 percent in July. Policymaker David Blanchflower voted for a quarter-point cut while Tim Besley urged the BoE to lift borrowing costs to 5.25 percent.

"We suspect that most MPC members are still firmly in wait-and-see mode and in no hurry to move interest rates, given the current major uncertainties surrounding both the medium-term inflation and growth outlooks," said Global Insight economist Howard Archer.

The BoE's last interest rate move had been in April when it cut borrowing costs from 5.25 percent.

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Panama to open up Latin American diamond market
Reuters
By Andrew Beatty Reuters - Tuesday, August 5 08:56 pm

PANAMA CITY (Reuters) - Diamond sellers are setting their sights on Latin America's increasingly prosperous middle class, which is benefiting from economic growth and stability, as U.S. and European sales of the rare stones slow.
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Latin America is rich in minerals, providing the gold, silver and emeralds that bankrolled Spanish and Portuguese empires, but it has long been a backwater in the diamond trade despite modest production in Brazil, Venezuela and Guyana.

To meet the new demand, Panama is building Latin America's first diamond exchange expected to be recognized by the World Federation of Diamond Bourses, one of the main players in the wholesale diamond market.

"Latin America is the last frontier," said Erez Akerman, who heads the Panama Diamond Exchange, the group behind the project. "We are looking at four main markets: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile," he told Reuters in the exchange's temporary offices in one of Panama City's upscale districts.

The $200-million project, due to be up and running by 2010, will include a purpose-built 50-story building in Panama City with safes, a gemmological institute, laboratories, polishing and cutting facilities and a trading hall.

Panama will make the exchange a tax-free zone and has applied to join the Kimberly Process to stop the spread of conflict diamonds so rough stones can be traded there.

Akerman hopes to draw 300 traders to Panama to create a place for buyers and sellers and raise the profile of the jewellery market in Latin America.

"We believe the jewellery market here grew about 5 to 10 percent a year in the last 10 years. We think we can change that number to 20 to 25 percent per year," he said.

NEW WEALTH

Economic growth and ample access to credit have sparked a boom in parts of Latin America. In the past two years, some 23 million Brazilians have jumped from low-income status to earn up to $745 a month and the ranks of the wealthy are swelling.

Only China and India are producing new dollar millionaires at a faster rate, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.

Varda Shine, head of the De Beers trading arm the Diamond Trading Company, which handles half the world's trade in rough diamonds, says Latin America should be part of the global expansion already being felt in India, China and Russia.

"Opportunities are opening up in new markets," Shine told an industry conference in Israel in February, predicting that "in addition to China and India, Latin America will become a large market for diamond jewellery."

Much of production in Latin America today is sold under contract to established traders in New York, Antwerp and Israel and what little regional trade exists is highly informal, with many diamonds being sold on the black market to avoid taxes.

"Right now, if we sell on the Brazilian market we are heavily taxed and the market prices are 15 to 20 percent lower than in Europe or elsewhere," said Kenneth Johnson, president of Toronto-based Vaaldiam Resources, which runs two diamond mines in central Brazil producing around 120,000 carats a year.

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３大銀、収益拡大の道険しく　4―6月実質業務純益軒並み２割減

　三菱ＵＦＪフィナンシャル・グループが5日、2008年4―6月期決算を発表し、メガバンク3行の決算が出そろった。米国の信用力の低い個人向け住宅融資（サブプライムローン）問題に揺れた前期に続き、厳しい経営環境に直面する。景気低迷で不良債権処理の費用が急増。投資信託販売など個人取引もさえない。海外取引に活路を求めるが、収益拡大の道は険しい。

　4―6月期の連結純利益はみずほフィナンシャルグループ（ＦＧ）が1329億円で首位となった。一部大口先の業績改善による戻り益や税務関係の特殊要因が増益をもたらした面が大きい。他の2グループは不良債権処理費用の急増で大幅減益だった。景気の低迷や原材料高で中小企業などの業績が悪化。不動産市況の変調もあり、貸し倒れに備えた引当金の積み増しを迫られた。

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３大銀、海外向け融資16％増　三菱ＵＦＪが首位

　逆風が強まる4―6月期に3メガ銀がそろって伸ばしたのが海外向け融資だ。サブプライムローン問題で財務が傷んだ欧米銀が融資に慎重になっており、邦銀が攻勢に出ている。6月末の融資残高（傘下銀行の合算）は3グループ合計で約34兆円と、3月末から16％増えた。

　トップは海外支店網が充実している三菱ＵＦＪフィナンシャル・グループ。みずほフィナンシャルグループが続く。両社は7月、ベルギーのビール世界大手インベブによる米最大手アンハイザー・ブッシュの買収資金について、欧米銀と並んで融資団に加わった。

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３大銀４―６月期、サブプライム損失は三井住友ＦＧが最少

　サブプライム関連損失は三井住友が100億円で最も少なかった。モノライン（金融保証会社）関連で15億円の損失が残ったが、昨春までに証券化商品の残高を大幅に圧縮したのが功を奏した。

　みずほの損失額は証券化商品で270億円、三菱ＵＦＪは160億円。海外勢では米シティグループやメリルリンチなどが4月以降も1兆円規模の追加損失を計上しており、欧米金融機関に比べれば傷は限定的といえる。

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療養病床、存続22万床に　厚労省方針

　厚生労働省は5日、長期間にわたり療養を必要とする高齢者が入院する療養病床の削減計画を緩和する方針を決めた。約35万床を2012年度末に約15万床まで減らす予定だったが、約22万床にとどめる。療養病床を急激に削減すると受け皿となる施設が不足し「患者の行き場がなくなる」と与党や医療関係者から批判の声が強まっていたためだ。

　厚労省が同日開かれた自民党の社会保障制度調査会医療委員会に方針を示し了承された。厚労省は06年の医療制度改革で、約35万床ある療養病床を約15 万床まで減らし、医療の必要性の低い高齢者を介護療養型の施設や老人保健施設などに移すことで、年間3000億円の社会保障給付費を削減できるとの見通しを示していた。厚労省の推計によると、今回の計画見直しで削減額は1200億円に圧縮されるという。

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東京都心５区のオフィス空室率、11カ月ぶり低下　７月末

　生駒データサービスシステム（東京・港）が5日まとめた7月末の東京都心5区（千代田、中央、港、新宿、渋谷）のオフィス空室率は、前月比0.2ポイント低い2.1％だった。空室率が低下するのは2007年8月以来、11カ月ぶり。空室解消のため、ビルオーナーがテナントとの賃料交渉で、柔軟な姿勢を見せ始めているようだ。

　平均賃料（募集ベース）は、3.3平方メートル当たり1万5230円。前月比0.06％（10円）下落で、ほぼ横ばい。募集賃料は前月まで1年5カ月にわたり上昇が続いたが、頭打ち感が出ている。

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アシックス、中国の物流をヤマトに業務委託

　アシックスは中国国内での物流業務をヤマト運輸グループに委託した。北京五輪を機に中国のスポーツ用品市場が拡大するとみて、物流量の増加に備える。アシックスは現地でのマーケティングや商品開発に専念する。委託額は非公表としている。

　委託するのは仕入れや検品・値札付け、在庫管理など、生産工場から店頭までの物流業務のすべて。ヤマトは中国で独自のトラック配送網を拡大している。アシックスは中国での売上高を2007年度の9億円から今後2年程度で50億円まで引き上げる計画。取扱量の増加に対応し、確実な配送体制を築く。従来は現地の物流業者に委託していたが誤配送や欠品などが多く、事業拡大の支障になっていた。

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ローソン、バイト確保狙いバンドコンテスト

　ローソンは今秋、同チェーンの店に勤めるアルバイトだけが参加できるバンドコンテストを開く。恒常的に不足するアルバイトの確保につなげる狙い。著名芸能プロダクションと組んで審査し、優勝グループの楽曲は来年2月に同プロダクションの携帯電話向け音楽配信サイトに登録。ローソンの店内放送でも流してデビューさせる。流通業界では珍しい取り組みだ。

　12日から10月6日まで参加を募る。メンバーの少なくとも1人がローソンの店で働いていることが条件。受け付け最終日の10月6日までに勤務を始めれば参加できる。1次審査で残った10組について、ローソンのサイト上の一般投票とワタナベエンターテインメント（東京・渋谷）に所属するプロ音楽家らの審査で優勝者を決める。

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丸紅、穀物を米で直接買い付け　日本に安定供給

　丸紅は米国の農家から穀物の直接買い付けを始める。穀倉地帯にある大規模倉庫10カ所を買収、穀物メジャーを通さずにトウモロコシや大豆を集荷できる物流網を整備する。中国など新興国の急速な購買力の高まりを受け、食料の安定調達が大きな課題に浮上。丸紅は農家との関係強化を急ぎ、日本市場に適した穀物の生産・供給体制を米国内に構築する。

　大豆搾油大手の米ＡＧＰ（ネブラスカ州）から米ノースダコタ、ミネソタ両州にある穀物倉庫8カ所と農業資材倉庫2カ所を買収した。買収総額は50億円前後のもよう。丸紅は農家から穀物を買い付けて保管し、需給動向にあわせて鉄道で西海岸の港に運び日本に輸出する。年間60万トンの出荷を見込む。

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日航、21路線を廃止・減便　全日空は約10路線

　日本航空と全日本空輸はジェット燃料の価格高騰を受け、今年度中に大幅な減便・路線廃止に乗り出す。日航は国内外合計で21路線、全日空は10路線程度が対象。燃油特別付加運賃（燃油サーチャージ）で高騰分を転嫁できる国際線に比べ、値上げが難しい国内不採算路線からの撤退が中心。路線削減が集中し着陸料などの収入が減る関西国際空港など地方空港の経営や、地域経済に大きな影響が出るのは避けられない。

　週内に両社が正式発表する。日航は年度内に国内線で12路線、国際線で5路線の廃止を計画している。同社は2007年度にも国内線九路線、国際線2路線を廃止しており、国内線については2年連続で過去最大規模の路線リストラになる。

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トヨタグループ、非正社員の削減広がる　北米不振響く

　北米市場での自動車販売低迷などを受けて、トヨタ自動車グループの国内生産拠点で非正社員の削減が進んでいる。直近3―4カ月間で、デンソー、関東自動車工業など主要5社の削減人員数は、派遣社員・期間従業員を合わせて約2300人に上った。トヨタは国内生産台数の約6割を輸出しているが、従来の国内販売低迷に北米不振が加わったことで生産活動への影響が拡大している。

　輸出車両向けカーエアコンなどを生産するデンソーは、愛知県内の工場などで派遣社員と期間従業員を7月末までに合計で約500人削減。トヨタ生産子会社の関東自動車は、主力の東富士工場（静岡県裾野市）で派遣社員を半減させた。

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中国初の本格製パン　敷島・伊藤忠が現地大手と合弁

　製パン2位の敷島製パンと伊藤忠商事は中国の食品大手、頂新国際集団と組み、中国でスーパーやコンビニエンスストア向け製パン事業に進出する。2010 年から上海で食パン・菓子パンの合弁工場を稼働させ、北京、蘇州など他都市でも生産。経済成長と食の欧米化を背景に年率30％で成長する中国のパン市場で、同国初の本格的な大手製パンとして17年までに年間売上高500億円の首位メーカーを目指す。

　頂新は製めんや茶系飲料の中国最大手。頂新が60％、敷島が24％、伊藤忠が16％出資し、事業主体の「頂盛ケイマン」（英領ケイマン諸島）を9月上旬に設立する。3社は5日、日本で合弁契約に調印した。頂盛ケイマンの子会社が上海で3万3000平方メートルの敷地に工場を建設、敷島の食パン「超熟」や総菜・蒸しパンなどを供給する。

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アフリカ大使に中堅職員を登用　外務省方針

　外務省は中堅職員をアフリカの大使に登用していく方針を決めた。第1弾として、ガーナ大使に片上慶一欧州局参事官（54）を、コートジボワール大使には岡村善文ウィーン国際機関政府代表部公使（50）をそれぞれ起用した。両氏とも通常の大使より5年程度年次が若いという。アフリカにも通じた幹部を育成し、アフリカ諸国とのパイプを強める狙いだ。

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民主、党員・サポーター数が過去最高に　５月時点26万人

　民主党の柳田稔組織委員長は5日の常任幹事会で、2008年度の党員・サポーター数（5月末時点）が前年度に比べて約7万人増加し、過去最高の26万9000人になったと報告した。

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モナ不倫降板で苦言のＴＢＳ社長はインテリ紳士、素顔は

　ＴＢＳの井上弘社長（６８）が人妻との“親密写真”を週刊新潮にキャッチされるなど、企業トップの危機管理力が問われている。昨年のベネッセコーポレーションのように社長が辞任に追い込まれたケースもある。プライベートとはいえ、トップの行動が社の内外に及ぼす影響は計り知れない。彼らが取るべきスタンスとは何か。

　企業の危機管理などを指導するリスクヘッジ社長の田中辰巳氏によると、トップが自らの行動で特に意識しなければならないのは、（１）何が会社に最もダメージを与えるか（２）旬のテーマは何か－の２点だという。

　ダメージを与える事象は業種によって異なり、例えば飲酒運転は警察や自動車メーカー、セクハラ問題は女性を顧客とする化粧品や下着メーカーに大きな打撃となる。

　テレビ局の場合、最大の視聴者は家庭の主婦。田中氏は「主婦は男女の不適切な関係に敏感で、報道されると非常に不愉快になる。テレビＣＭは生活用品や食品など多くが主婦に向けて発信されているため、イメージダウンを恐れたスポンサーが次々と離れる可能性もある」とみている。

　昨年２月に発覚したベネッセコーポレーション社長（当時）の女性問題では、「高い倫理観が求められる職場に対する風評を考慮した」として、社長が辞任する事態に発展した。さらに、「山本モナと巨人・二岡の一件で旬になったテーマという点でも、一番やってはいけない問題。認識が甘く不謹慎としか言いようがない」（田中氏）。

　田中氏は昨年から自らのクライアントに、「偽装の『偽』が付く問題には特に注意するように」と訴えてきた。ミートホープ、赤福、白い恋人、飛騨牛と続いた一連の偽装問題に対して消費者が敏感になっていたからだ。みずほコーポレート銀行の斎藤宏頭取（６４）とテレビ東京の女性記者の逢瀬が報じられたのは山本モナ騒動の直後で、わざわざ旬のテーマに飛びついてしまった形だ。

　経営評論家の針木康雄氏は企業のトップが守るべきものとしてフランス語の「ノブレス・オブリージュ」（高貴な者の義務）を挙げた。権力や社会的地位には責任がともない、「経営者の不祥事は社員に直接悪い影響を及ぼすので、政治家以上の倫理観が必要」と指摘した。

　「そもそも女性好きを社長にしてはいけない。本人も立派な社長になりたいという名誉欲があるのなら性欲は我慢しなければ。言い方は悪いが、社長を辞めてからおやりなさい、ということだろう」（針木氏）

　かつては愛人とともに生活する企業トップもいた。評論家の佐高信氏によると、「財界の鞍馬天狗」と呼ばれた中山素平・旧日本興業銀行元会長が夫人のもとを離れてある女性と生活していたのは周知の事実だったという。ところがそれが表面化して問題視されることはなかった。

　「人物の魅力と実力、財界やマスコミへの圧倒的な信頼感があったため女性のことが表沙汰になることはなかった。また、女性に対しても一時の火遊びではなく生涯をかけて面倒をみた。ろくに魅力もない人間が火遊びをしてはいけない」（佐高氏）

　一方、評論家の塩田丸男氏は“擁護派”だ。「女性との関係が本職にマイナスになるようだと困るが、きちんとやっているなら恋人の２、３人は構わないのではないか。行儀がいい、浮気はしない、だけど仕事はできないというトップが多い。だいたいヤリ手は女性に手が早いもの。目くじら立てて攻撃するのは大衆の嫉妬にすぎないのだから、あまり気にしない方がいい」と話していた。

　ＴＢＳの井上弘社長は、民放トップの中でも屈指のインテリ紳士として有名だ。７月３０日夜、ＴＢＳ社屋内で開かれた放送担当記者らとの懇親会に出席した際は、赤坂サカスの成功や北京五輪などの話題で終始上機嫌だった。

　みずほコーポレート銀行の斎藤宏頭取の“不倫疑惑”が話題になると、「斎藤さんは女性にモテそう」と他人事のように感心していた。だが、実は３日前の２７日に、女性と仲良く手をつなぐモテモテぶりがすでにキャッチされていた。

　東大文学部卒の井上社長は、営業・編成畑を歩み、早くから社長候補と目されてきたエリート。経理部門に配属されると、仕事をしながら税理士試験に合格した。ある幹部は「うちの上層部でも、数字を読めるのは井上さんしかいないといっていいほどクレバーな方。グローバルな視点を持っていて、かなり前から“テレビは放送だけじゃない”と言って、事業拡大も視野に入れていた」と語る。

　経営者としての真面目な人柄は、「下ネタはスポンサーが嫌がるので厳禁、と現場に徹底して言っている」（制作局幹部）というところにも表れている。

　一昨年、自局の報道番組「ＮＥＷＳ２３」にキャスターとして出演していた山本モナ（３２）が不倫降板した際は、「個人的には、“大人なんだからなあ”という気がします。自分の責任と与えられた役割は分かってほしい」と、やんわり苦言を呈していた。

　そんな井上社長だけに、女性社員は「大変なグルメで、ワインにも詳しい。酔って乱れたり、女性になれなれしくなったりすることもしない。奥様とも夫婦円満と聞いていたのに…」とショックを隠さない。

　ＴＢＳ広報部は「プライベートなことなのでコメントすることはありません」としている。

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暑すぎて仕事効率低下も…クールビズ２８度の疑問噴出

　夏のビジネス軽装として定着した「クールビズ」だが、４年目を迎え、冷房の設定基準温度とされる「２８度」に疑問の声が噴出している。科学的な根拠はなく、専門家は「パンツ一丁にならないと快適さは得られない暑さ」と指摘、暑すぎて「仕事の効率が下がる」と弊害を指摘する研究結果も出ている。小池百合子元環境相の主導で始まったキャンペーンだが、汗だくで仕事をさせられるサラリーマンが反旗を翻す日も近い！？

　「２８度でも涼しい」

　エアコン国内最大手、ダイキン工業は夏商戦向けのテレビＣＭで、温度ではなく湿度をコントロールして体感温度を下げる技術をこんなキャッチフレーズでＰＲした。言外に「２８度では快適に過ごせない」とも読み取れるだけに、放送していいものか社内で大激論が交わされたという。

　営業担当者が語る。

　「２８度では正直、暑いですよ。現状ではクールビズでみなさん我慢を強いられている。その点を問題提起するためにも、これでいこうとなりました」

　設定基準温度は義務ではないが、横並び意識の強い日本人。大手企業を中心に２８度を守っている会社は意外に多い。「設定温度を守る拠点ではみんな汗だらだらで仕事しています。見ていてかわいそうになりますよ」（大手食品メーカーの女性社員）

　日本建築学会によるクールビズのオフィス環境への影響に関する調査では、軽装でも室温が２５度から１度上がるごとに作業の効率は２％ずつ低下。クールビズはニューヨークの国連本部でも今年８月から導入されたが、事務局棟が現在の約２２度から約２５度に、外交官が出入りする会議棟は約２１度から約２４度に上げただけだった。

　神戸女子大学家政学部の平田耕造教授（被服環境生理学）は「２８度は高すぎる」と断言する。「生理学的にもっとも快適に感じるのは２８～３０度だが、それは裸の話。服を着ていると２８度では不快感を感じる。一般的には２６度ぐらいにすべき」とし、「ＯＡ機器が多く、体を動かす職場ではもっと下げる必要がある。温度の感じ方は千差万別で、２８度という一律の枠を作る発想がおかしい」と批判する。

　科学的にみても「２８度」は高温であることがわかるが、なぜこうなったのか。

　クールビズの源流は、関西の自治体や経済団体で構成する「関西広域機構」が９９年に始めた「エコスタイル運動」にさかのぼる。同機構の広報担当者は「環境相就任直後に視察にこられた小池さんに、『それ、いいわね』と気に入っていただき全国に広まったんです」と自慢げに説明する。

　ところが、２８度の根拠を突っ込むと「建築物衛生法で定められたオフィスの上限温度というだけで、根拠があるわけでも厳密な計算をしたわけでもないので…」としどろもどろ。

　「強制しているわけではありませんし、臨機応変にそれぞれの判断でやってもらわないと…」

　一方、クールビズで名前が売れ、いまや将来の首相候補とも言われる小池氏は「室温２８度は建築物衛生法、労働安全衛生法の上限温度を根拠にしています。部屋の向き、人口密度やＯＡ機器の多寡によって実際には温度が上回る場合はあります。空調機の温度設定と実際の温度との差が生じることもあります。建築物や空調の種類にもよりますが、涼しい日でも２８度の温度設定のままでいるケースなど、より細やかな対応、工夫が求められます。総合的な意識変革と技術革新のきっかけになることを期待します」とコメントした。

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長男の嫁の布団に火…殺人未遂容疑で姑を逮捕

　岡山県警井原署は６日、長男の妻が寝ていた布団に火を付けたとして、殺人未遂と放火未遂の現行犯で岡山県井原市、無職の義母（６５）を逮捕した。

　調べでは、義母は６日午前１時半ごろ、自宅２階の和室で、長男の妻（３８）が眠っていた布団にライターで火を付けて殺害しようとした疑い。「嫁を殺し自分も死のうと思った」と供述。日ごろからうまくいっていなかったという。

　長男の妻は物音で目を覚まして逃げたが、軽いやけど。火は家族らが消し、布団や畳を焼いただけで済んだ。義母は夫と長男夫婦、孫２人の６人家族。

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給食残したと体罰…兵庫、小学校教諭を停職３カ月

　兵庫県姫路市の小学校で給食のカレーを食器に残したと４年の女子児童（９）のほおをたたく体罰をしたとして同県教育委員会は５日、男性教諭（３１）を停職３カ月の懲戒処分にした。

　県教委によると、女児は精神的なショックを受けて登校できなくなり、２０日間欠席した後、転校した。教諭の体罰があったのは５月３０日。教諭は節水のためにカレーを最後まですくい取って食べてから食器を返すよう指導。女児がカレーを残したとして、ほおを両手でたたいた。さらに「決まりを守らなくていいクラスに行け」と言って女児の机やランドセルを廊下に出した。女児の様子がおかしいことに気付いた親が学校側に抗議して発覚。県教委の調査に教諭は「感情に頼った行動をとってしまったことは痛恨の極み」と話しているという。

　県教委は「日ごろから体罰の禁止を指導してきたので、強い憤りを感じる。指導を強めていきたい」としている。

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無職長男、硫化水素自殺で父も巻き添え…東京・大田区

　６日午前２時２５分ごろ、東京都大田区北千束、自営業の父親（６３）方浴室で、無職の長男（２０）が倒れているのを両親が発見し、母親（５５）が１１９番した。

　浴室のドアには「硫化水素。危険、入るな」との張り紙があったが、父親は長男を助け出そうと浴室に入って倒れ、父子とも搬送先の病院で死亡した。母親も硫化水素を吸い込んだが、命に別条はないという。

　浴室内には洗剤を混ぜたとみられる液体の入った容器があり、警視庁田園調布署は長男が硫化水素を発生させて自殺し、父親が巻き添えになったとみている。

　調べでは、長男は高校卒業程度認定試験の試験前で様子がおかしかったといい、両親が心配していたという。

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中部盲導犬協会：県が再発防止指導　資金簿外管理で

　財団法人「中部盲導犬協会」（名古屋市港区）が２０年余りにわたって資金を簿外管理していた問題で、愛知県は６日、特別監査結果を発表した。簿外資金の総額は約８５７０万円に上るという。県は同日、協会に対し、外部監査の導入などの再発防止策を求める行政指導を行った。

　資金は８２年ごろから０４年まで、募金の一部が複数の金融機関の口座に分散管理され、県への決算報告などにも記載されていなかった。県は今回の調査で計４７の簿外口座を確認。うち４４口座約８５４２万円分が既に法人会計に訂正処理されており、残る３口座約２８万円分についても訂正させる。

　簿外口座からは１１５件約８５２２万円が引き出されていた。うち９４件約６８１４万円は、納品書の記録などから切手類の購入や施設の空調工事などに使われたことが確認され、私的流用の形跡はみられなかったという。ただし一部に未確認の支出もあり、「流用がなかったと断定はできない」としている。

　簿外管理には、通帳の名義から過去の協会幹部（故人）が関与していたとみられる。県健康福祉総務課は「動機は不明だが、経理への認識不足があったのでは」と話している。

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「天洋食品」回収ギョーザ、中国で中毒…現地混入が濃厚に

　中国製冷凍ギョーザ（餃子）中毒事件で、製造元の中国河北省石家荘の「天洋食品」が事件後に中国国内で回収したギョーザが流通し、このギョーザを食べた中国人が有機リン系殺虫剤メタミドホスによる中毒症状を起こして、重大な健康被害が出ていたことがわかった。

　関係筋が５日明らかにした。これまで日中双方の警察当局がそれぞれ自国内でのメタミドホスの混入を否定してきたが、中国国内で同様の事件が発生したことにより、中国での混入の可能性が強まった。

　日本政府は今後、中国公安省に事実確認を要請するとみられ、日中両国の捜査協力がようやく本格化する可能性が出てきた。

　関係筋によると、中国側は７月初め、北海道洞爺湖サミット（主要国首脳会議）の直前に、外交ルートを通じて、日本側にこの新事実を通告、中国での混入の可能性を示唆したという。

　事件が起きたのは６月中旬。天洋食品が回収した冷凍ギョーザの一部を食べた中国人が中毒を起こし、重大な健康被害が出たという。被害者の人数や症状などは不明だが、千葉県などの事件と同様、ギョーザに含まれていたメタミドホスが原因と特定された。事件後、日本に輸出される前の商品は天洋食品が回収したことになっており、今回、中毒を引き起こした商品が流通した理由やその経路などはわからない。

　中国側の混入の可能性が強まったことで、中国の捜査当局は事故と故意による混入の両面で改めて捜査を急ぐ必要に迫られそうだ。

　冷凍ギョーザ中毒事件では、千葉、兵庫両県の３家族１０人が昨年末から今年１月にかけ、天洋食品製造のギョーザで中毒症状になった。中国側は２月末、「原料、生産工程、輸送過程でメタミドホスが混入された状況は見つかっていない」との見方を表明。これに対し、警察庁は、メタミドホスの成分分析の結果、日本国内にはない不純物が検出されたことなどから、「日本で混入された可能性は極めて低い」との見解を示していた。

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冷凍餃子中毒、日中首脳会談で捜査協力要請へ

　中国製冷凍ギョーザ（餃子）中毒事件で、製造元の「天洋食品」（河北省）が事件後に回収したギョーザが中国国内で流通し、有機リン系殺虫剤メタミドホスによる健康被害が出ていた問題で、日本政府は６日、中国政府に詳細な情報提供を求める方針を固めた。

　８日の北京五輪開会式に合わせ、北京で行われる福田首相と温家宝・中国首相の首脳会談でも捜査協力の強化を重ねて申し入れる考えだ。

　外務省幹部は６日午前、中国政府から同国内での被害発生情報の連絡を受けていたことを認めた上で、「（中国が国内でのメタミドホス混入を否定してきた）今までと違う話になってきた」と述べた。政府筋は同日午前、「（中国で混入したと）決め打ちするわけにはいかない。まずは情報提供を求める」と語った。

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Cuba must not apologize to USA for deployment of Russian nuclear bombers
24.07.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/105877-cuba-bombers-0

Cuba’s ailing leader Fidel Castro believes that his nation must neither explain nor apologize to the USA for a possible deployment of Russian strategic nuclear-capable bombers.

“Raul Castro was wise not to respond to reports about a possible deployment of Russian bombers on Cuban air bases,” Castro wrote in an article published on www.cubadebate.cu.

The USSR used to have a wide access to Cuban defense infrastructure. Many Cuban bases are still appropriate for the deployment of Russian troops. The Lourdes facility used to be the main symbol of USSR’s military presence in Cuba. The base was closed in 2001, when it was decided that it was too expensive for Russia to maintain it adequately. Russia had to pay about $200 million a year for the use of the base.

Lourdes was not just a defense facility. It was a symbol of the military unity between Russia and Cuba. The base had the same goal, which the USA is currently pursuing with its missile defense plans in Eastern Europe: to immediately register missile launches from enemy’s territory. Electronic intelligence was another major function, which the facility was fulfilling: the powerful equipment allowed to tap telephones all across the USA.

Located less than 100 miles from Key West, the facility covers 28 square miles. Construction began in July of 1962, and operations at the facility continue to this day.

At its peak during the Cold War, the facility was staffed by over 1,500 KGB, GRU, Cuban DGI, and Eastern Block technicians, engineers and intelligence operatives. In 2000, it was reported that China signed an agreement with the Cuban government to share use of the facility for its own intelligence agency.

In Washington, U.S. State Department Acting Deputy spokesman Gonzalo R. Gallegos said that American officials had received no official confirmation from the Russian government about the newspaper report, and was unaware of any U.S. efforts to directly contact Moscow about it.

"We continue to continue to work with the Russians on this issue," Gallegos said Tuesday, referring to talks aimed at explaining the U.S. government's missile defense plan. "We have consistently made it clear to them that our proposed deployment of a limited missile defense system in Europe poses no threat to them or to their nuclear deterrent."

Despite Cuba's one-time alliance with the former Soviet Union, it seems unlikely that Raul Castro would allow Russian bombers on the island and risk the ire of the U.S. government.

Raul Castro has been president only since February, securing a seamless transition from his brother, who ruled for nearly a half-century. He has repeatedly said he is willing to discuss the two countries' differences in talks held on equal terms with America's next president.

Soviet nuclear missiles stationed in Cuba during the height of the Cold War pushed the world to the brink of nuclear conflict on Oct. 22, 1962, after President John F. Kennedy announced their presence to the world. After a tense week of diplomacy, Soviet leader Nikita Krushchev removed them.

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Russia may eventually retrieve its military presence in Cuba and Vietnam
05.08.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/105998-russia_cuba-0

Russian army bases in Cuba may still become a reality. Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, the president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, stated Monday that the retrieval of the Russian military presence in Cuba may become a real response to the ongoing increase of the US military and political pressure on Russia.

“It is an open secret that the West has been establishing a buffer zone around Russia during the recent years, getting European, Baltic states, Ukraine and the Caucasus involved in the process. The expansion of the Russian military presence abroad, particularly in Cuba, could become a response to US-led activities,” RIA Novosti quoted Ivashov as saying.

Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, made a work visit to Cuba on July 30-31 and held meetings with Cuban ministers for defense and internal affairs.

Leonid Ivashov said that Patrushev’s visit to “the island of freedom” was made to discuss the forms of Russia’s possible military presence on the island.

“There are convenient bays for reconnaissance and battleships and a network of so-called forward staging posts in Cuba. We can resume the operation of the radar center in Lourdes upon the agreement of the Cuban administration. A shipment of new radar equipment will be necessary for it, though,” Ivashov said.

The official also emphasized the importance for the Russian administration to modernize a technical support center for vessels of the Russian Navy in Syria’s Tartus port. To crown it all, Ivashov did not rule out a possibility to resume talks with Vietnam regarding a possibility for Russia to deploy its battleships in Cam Ran port.

Leonid Ivashov chaired the department for international defense cooperation of Russia’s Defense Ministry in 1996-2001.

Former commander of Russia’s Black Sea Navy, Eduard Baltin, also said that there are convenient bases in Cuba, where Russian ships could be based. “It is technically possible, although there is no strategic need in it today,” the admiral said.

The Russian radio intercept center was operating in Cuba until 2002. The center was officially called the Russian Electronic Center in Lourdes. The center allowed to intercept the data transmitted from US communication satellites, ground-based telecommunication cables and even messages from NASA’s center in Florida. The base was closed in October 2001. The annual rent for the use of the base in Lourdes reportedly made up $200 million.

Russia’s largest overseas navy base was liquidated in 2002. The agreement signed between Russia and Vietnam in 1981 stipulated the use of two berths for Russian battleships and submarines, about 30 warehouses and a runway for all kinds of planes.

Cam Ran used to play the key role in the plans of the Russian Navy, because it was the only base that was capable of providing the presence of Russian vessels in the Indian Ocean and in the Persian Gulf area. The annual rent made up $300 million.

The technical support center for the Russian Navy in Syria’s Tartus still operates free of charge.

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It is time USA should call a spade a spade
05.08.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/106002-national_defense_strategy-0

A new national defense strategy has been exposed in the USA. Defense Secretary Robert Gates directly referred to Russia and China as potential foes. However, the USA is not going to wage any wars against the world’s two biggest countries.

In spite of the fact that the Pentagon has not officially published the National Defense Strategy yet (the document was approved in June), several copies of the new document have been sent to the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Pentagon’s press secretary Geoff Morrell said that the document contained the content of Robert Gates’s speeches which he had delivered during the recent several months. The minister wrote that he considered his document to be a recipe for success for the next US administration.

Strategy has been an issue of paramount important for Robert Gates since the end of 2006, when he chaired the Pentagon. The concept of the strategy says that the United States must attract both military resources and the “soft power” to defeat a complex, transnational foe.

The document also contains appeals to develop non-standard warfare methods instead of focusing the USA’s strength on conventional armed conflicts with other states. Gates also recommends developing partnership with China and Russia to blunt their rise as potential adversaries and hedge against their increasing military capabilities.

Robert Gates points out India as an ally, which, as he hopes, will claim large responsibility as a country interested in the international system. However, the official sees the struggle with al-Qaida and other terrorist groups to be the prime goal for the USA during the forthcoming decades.

Even victories in Iraq and Afghanistan would not put an end to the long-standing war with armed extremist groups, Gates believes.

"For the foreseeable future, winning the 'Long War' against violent extremist movements will be the central objective of the U.S.," the strategy paper said, adding that Iraq and Afghanistan "remain the central fronts in the struggle."

But, it added that the U.S. "cannot lose sight of the implications of fighting a long-term, episodic, multi-front, and multidimensional conflict more complex and diverse than the Cold War confrontation with communism."

The 23-page document asserted: "Success in Iraq and Afghanistan is crucial to winning this conflict, but it alone will not bring victory."

Gates uses the term ‘long war’ introduced by his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld. The official uses the term to assimilate the war against terrorism to Soviet communism and German Nazism. Gates turned down the idea of giving the first priority to the preventive use of military force. He urges the current and the future US administration to cooperate with other countries to exterminate terrorism and conditions that lead to its development.

“The use of force plays a role but may be less important than measures to promote local participation in government and economic programs to spur development, as well as efforts to understand and address the grievances that often lie at the heart of insurgencies," the document said.

To put it in a nutshell, Robert Gates believes that the USA should wage war by proxy.

The national defense strategy, which US Defense Secretary submits to the Senate and the president of the United States once in two years, mirrors the evolution of USA’s degrading defense capabilities. The previous concepts expressed the nation’s readiness to struggle against international terrorism in any part of the world. The “success” of such struggle has undoubtedly undermined the reputation of the White House both inside and outside the United States, along with the reputation of NATO members which sent their military contingents to Iraq and Afghanistan. It is time for the USA to call a spade a spade.

When a military report names a country and defines it as a potential foe, one should read this as ‘enemy.’ Therefore, the USA has officially named Russia and China its official enemies. It goes without saying that the USA is not going to wage war against these two countries. It is hard to imagine what would happen to the US Army if the US administration declared war on China with and its 1.5-billion-strong population. To crown it all, Russia and China possess nuclear weapons. However, an official acknowledgment of China and Russia as USA’s enemies will give the USA an opportunity to deploy radar stations and missile defense systems anywhere in the world. Gates’s strategy is an unofficial declaration of war.

The USA’s economic state leaves much to be desired too. The opium war, which the nation unleashed in Afghanistan, can serve the best proof for that. Washington is unable to cover the military spending at the expense of its own industry. England used to succeed in the solution of its financial problems with the help of opium and opium wars in China.

If the USA is deprived of this source of income, the country will lack funds for unleashing local conflicts all over the world and maintaining the minimal battling capacity of its own army.

It is not ruled out that the new defense strategy of the United States is just another attempt of the country to preserve its image of world’s only superpower. In addition, the concept may also allow not to show any reaction to Russia’s initiatives. The USA simply declares that it can cope with Russia and China at once and thus creates a false impression of the world leader.

Vladimir Anokhin
Pravda.ru

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23:12 GMT, Tuesday, 5 August 2008 00:12 UK
Broccoli may undo diabetes damage
Broccoli

Eating broccoli could reverse the damage caused by diabetes to heart blood vessels, research suggests.

A University of Warwick team believe the key is a compound found in the vegetable, called sulforaphane.

It encourages production of enzymes which protect the blood vessels, and a reduction in high levels of molecules which cause significant cell damage.

Brassica vegetables such as broccoli have previously been linked to a lower risk of heart attacks and strokes.

"Our study suggests that compounds such as sulforaphane from broccoli may help counter processes linked to the development of vascular disease in diabetes"
Professor Paul Thornalley
University of Warwick

People with diabetes are up to five times more likely to develop cardiovascular diseases such as heart attacks and strokes; both are linked to damaged blood vessels.

The Warwick team, whose work is reported in the journal Diabetes, tested the effects of sulforaphane on blood vessel cells damaged by high glucose levels (hyperglycaemia), which are associated with diabetes.

They recorded a 73% reduction of molecules in the body called Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS).

Hyperglycaemia can cause levels of ROS to increase three-fold and such high levels can damage human cells.

The researchers also found that sulforaphane activated a protein in the body called nrf2, which protects cells and tissues from damage by activating protective antioxidant and detoxifying enzymes.

Countering vascular disease

Lead researcher Professor Paul Thornalley said: "Our study suggests that compounds such as sulforaphane from broccoli may help counter processes linked to the development of vascular disease in diabetes.

"In future, it will be important to test if eating a diet rich in brassica vegetables has health benefits for diabetic patients. We expect that it will."

Dr Iain Frame, director of research at the charity Diabetes UK, stressed that research carried out on cells in the lab was a long way from the real life situation.

However, he said: "It is encouraging to see that Professor Thornalley and his team have identified a potentially important substance that may protect and repair blood vessels from the damaging effects of diabetes.

"It also may help add some scientific weight to the argument that eating broccoli is good for you."