Thousands march over Gaza strikes

Thousands march over Gaza strikes

Thousands of people are taking part in demonstrations across the UK against the Israeli air strikes on Gaza.

Up to 10,000 demonstrators took to the streets in London, hurling shoes at the gates of Downing Street in protest.

In Manchester, 2,000 people marched and there were hundreds more in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Portsmouth and elsewhere.

Israel's government has said it is defending its citizens from Palestinian rocket attacks, but Gordon Brown has called for an urgent ceasefire.

A Number 10 spokesman said the prime minister had spoken to his Israeli counterpart, Ehud Olmert, on Saturday to press for an end to the violence.

"Rocket attacks from Hamas must stop, and we have called for a halt to Israeli military action in Gaza," the spokesman said.

"Too many have died and we need space to get humanitarian supplies to those who need them. As the prime minister has made clear, moderation must prevail."

'Powerful message'

More than 30 organisations, including the British Muslim Initiative and the Stop the War Coalition, have worked together to organise the series of protests on Saturday.

In London, crowds marched along the Embankment towards Trafalgar Square, shouting "Free, free Palestine" and "Israel terrorists".

When they reached Whitehall about a thousand shoes were thrown at the gates of Downing Street, echoing the protest of an Iraqi journalist who threw his shoes at US President George W Bush.

The Metropolitan Police put the total number of demonstrators in London at a maximum of 6,000, but organisers said this was a gross underestimate.

One, Ismail Patel, said: "Trafalgar Square holds 45,000 people when it is full and it is overflowing, it is more than full. We estimate there are between 60,000-75,000 people at today's rally."

Former London mayor Ken Livingstone joined crowds in Trafalgar Square and said the protests sent "a powerful message" to the prime minister that the public would not tolerate Israel's "war crime".

"The silence of the British government, and most Western governments, is obscene, and I think Gordon Brown will see this and recognise the real anger amongst Londoners," he said.

Also speaking in Trafalgar Square, veteran politician Tony Benn praised those who had turned out.

"All movements begin at grassroots level, and this is one of the most powerful demonstrations I've been a part of," he said.

"What I would like to see is the prime minister and [Foreign Secretary] David Miliband do more, and be more vocal."

Mr Benn also called for a Europe-wide boycott of Israeli goods.

Among the protesters was singer Annie Lennox, who told the BBC that both sides were "wrong" and a total ceasefire was the only sensible solution.

"I'm here today as a mother, not as a politician. I'm not pro-anybody, I'm here for human rights," she said.

"The turnout today is absolutely incredible, it shows that so many people really care about the issue. Hopefully now we will see dialogue, dialogue, dialogue."

Elsewhere, in Portsmouth, nearly 500 people took to the streets and police said there were about 500 demonstrators in Glasgow and 600 in Edinburgh. Some 300 marched in Bristol.

Civilian deaths

Comedian Alexei Sayle, who was also planning to take part in the demonstrations, told the BBC that Israel's response was "massively disproportionate" and although the two countries had a complicated history, the answer was simple.

He said: "Stop killing people, stop killing children and then start thinking about the little things after that."

But actor and comedian Paul Kaye said the situation was just as "terrifying" for Israelis under constant Hamas fire.

"I think it's important to remember that mothers fleeing rocket attacks holding their children have the same fear on both sides of the border," he told the BBC.

The UN has reported that some 2,000 Palestinians have been wounded since the air strikes began last Saturday.

More than 400 people have been killed including 60 civilians - 34 of them children.

Four Israelis - three civilians and one soldier - have been killed by rockets fired into Israel from Gaza, which have hit towns up to 25 miles (40km) from the narrow coastal strip.

Both sides have so far resisted international calls for a ceasefire.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/uk_news/7809656.stm

Published: 2009/01/03 15:45:19 GMT

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Fatty foods could be banned to halt obesity rises

Foods manufacturers who make products high in salt or fat could be ordered to alter their recipes if a new anti-obesity drive fails.

By Andrew Porter, Political Editor
Last Updated: 5:25PM GMT 02 Jan 2009

The warning came as the Department of Health launched a New Year campaign aimed at getting people to slim down.

Ben Bradshaw, the Health Minister, warned that obesity was rising so fast that by 2050 four out of 10 children and nine out of 10 adults will be overweight or obese.

He promised that the Government would not shy away from bringing in new rules to force food companies to play a part in changing the country's eating habits. Limits could be imposed on the amount of fat and salt in certain products.

He said: "We have already made progress on things like labelling and fat and salt content working with the industry. But ... if this three-year campaign does not succeed, we don't rule out regulating in future."

Tam Fry, a National Obesity Forum board member, told the BBC that greater regulation of the food industry was needed to tackle rising obesity.

He said: "What we fear is that the industry is very willing to give £200 million to the campaign as a way of deflecting the Government's interest in regulation.

"Unless you get the food to the right quality and unless you avoid the prospect of advertising junk food to children, you are going to have a continuation of the problem."

The Government's Change4Life campaign will begin tomorrow with television, magazine and national advertisements urging people to adopt a more healthy lifestyle.

The action is being taken after forecasters said obesity was rising so fast that by 2050 four out of 10 children and nine out of ten adults will be overweight or obese.

The Government hopes over the next 11 years to reduce child obesity back to the level reached in 2000.

It is estimated that obesity will cost Britain £50 billion by 2050, putting the NHS under extreme pressure, if the current trend continues.

Advertising of junk foods during children's television programmes was banned by ministers in April 2007 but the Department of Health has so far resisted calls to extend the restrictions.

Health lobby groups say the obesity crisis is being fuelled by food companies who put too much salt, fat and sugar in their products and have criticised their involvement in the campaign.

A coalition of 35 food, supermarket, fitness and advertising companies are contributing sponsorship worth £200 million to the campaign, on which the government is spending £75 million.

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新年炊き出し：ホームレスも生きるため懸命　元路上生活者が体験談－－小倉北　／福岡
　◇勝山公園で新年炊き出し

　ＮＰＯ法人北九州ホームレス支援機構（奥田知志理事長）による毎年恒例の「新年炊き出し」が３日、小倉北区城内の勝山公園であった。今年は、元路上生活者から直接話を聞いて命や人権について考えてもらおうと小倉北区内の小中学校に参加者を募り、約３０人が集まった。【長谷川容子】
　◇コミュニケーション、生きがい－－若者が花火／雨／食事なし
　◇“命・人権”に子供たちも聴き入る

　路上生活者約８０人が参加。牛肉を鉄板で焼いた出来たての弁当が振る舞われたほか、風邪薬や胃薬も配布。子供たちもスタッフに混じってぜんざいやようかんを配った。

　その後、会場を移して、元路上生活者の男性（６４）が体験談を語った。男性は約６年にわたって博多駅や福岡空港付近の公園で野宿。テント暮らしの公園では、若者が投げこんだ花火で危うく命を落としそうになる経験もし、仲間で自衛パトロールを行ったという。

　路上生活する上で最も大変だったのが「雨が降る日と飯が食べられなかった日」で、他人とコミュニケーションできた時に「生きてて良かった」と思えたという。男性は「ホームレスだって生きるために一生懸命。それが伝わらないのがつらかった」と訴えた。

　男性は現在、同機構が運営する自立生活援助ホーム「抱樸館」（山口県下関市）で働いているが、路上生活からの“脱出”のきっかけは１カ月にわたる入院だった。「約８０万円の治療費が税金で払われた時、もう一度立ち上がりたいと思った」と言い、子供たちは真剣な表情で聴き入っていた。

　奥田理事長は「もう一回頑張ろうと思えるのは『助けてもらった』と思った時。誰かに頼るのは恥ずかしいことじゃない。ホームレスとは単に家がないことを言うのでなく、助けてくれる人がいないこと。お互いがお互いを支えよう」と呼びかけた。

〔北九州版〕

毎日新聞　2009年1月4日　地方版

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派遣切りの孤独な新年　大阪の寒空、帰省もできず雑煮もなく (1/2ページ)
2009.1.4 01:25
このニュースのトピックス：年末・年始

　ふるさとなどからのＵターンラッシュが始まった３日、大阪市北区の扇町公園では、「派遣切り」などで仕事を失い、帰省したくてもできない人たちが炊き出しを求めて長い列を作った。身を包む孤独感で自殺を考えた人、除夜の鐘を耳にしながら、ひとり夜の街を徘徊（はいかい）した人…。膨らむ家族への思いをじっと耐える人々の心を一時（いっとき）癒やした炊き出し、それは、お雑煮でもおせち料理でもなく、彼らの栄養を最大限に考えた中華丼と野菜サラダだった。

　「健康保険証もないので今後、病気にならないか不安で不安で…」

　寒空の下、背筋を丸めながら、力なくこう語ったのは、堺市で派遣労働者として自動車部品の検品をしていた男性（３３）。年もおし迫った先月１５日、突然派遣契約を打ち切られ、クリスマスには３カ月分の家賃を滞納していたアパートから追い出された。

　その夜、実家に「今年は帰れへん」と電話した。「忙しいんか」と息子の身を案じ尋ねる母親に、「そうや」とだけ答えた。翌日、母親とつなぐ携帯電話の契約も切れた。

　行くあてもなく、マンガ喫茶やネットカフェで夜を過ごした。３万円ほどあった所持金は２９日には１万円を切り、路上生活を余儀なくされた。

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炊き出し行列、例年より長く…　神戸・東遊園地　

　契約を打ち切られ寮を追われるなどした元派遣社員らを支援する「年越し派遣村」に、東京・霞が関の厚生労働省講堂が開放されて一夜明けた三日、講堂には約二百五十人が泊まり「暖かい」と安堵（あんど）の声が漏れた。全国的には依然、宿泊場所を確保できない人も多いとみられ、ボランティアが炊き出しを行う神戸市中央区の東遊園地にはこの日も、例年より二割ほど多い約二百八十人が集まった。

　厚労省の講堂で、神奈川県内の工場で働いていた男性（３９）は「公園よりは暖かく、足が伸ばせて良かった」とほっとした様子。しかし、現在の境遇や今後に思いを巡らせ「自分がここまで落ち、さびしくてみじめ」と顔をしかめた。

　派遣村の実行委員会によると、三日午後も失業者らが次々と訪れ、この四日間で四百人を突破。うち約二百五十人が宿泊している東京・霞が関の厚生労働省の講堂は、仕事始めに当たる五日から使用できなくなるため、派遣村の実行委員会は厚労省に、五日以降の衣食住の確保など六項目にわたる要望書を提出した。また、これまで約百七十人が千代田区に生活保護を申し込んだ。

　一方、神戸市の東遊園地でも三日、特定非営利活動法人（ＮＰＯ法人）「神戸の冬を支える会」が行う炊き出しに行列ができた。日雇いで土木作業をしていた男性（３９）は、提供された石狩鍋の汁をすすり「本当にありがたい」と笑みを浮かべた。暮れから仕事がなくなり、元日の夜から野宿を始めた。「知人にも頼って仕事を探しているが、これからどうするか…」

　仕事を失った人らが無料宿泊できる神戸市中央区の市立更生援護相談所の利用者は十二月三十日以降、連日百人を超える。「今後路上生活者の利用が増える可能性もある」（担当職員）とし、カップめんの提供などを続けていく。

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炊き出し：ホームレスに雑煮など振る舞う－－宇都宮　／栃木

　ホームレスの人を対象にした炊き出しが３日、宇都宮市元今泉５の駅東公園で実施された。例年より多い約５０人が参加し、つきたての餅が入った雑煮やきなこ餅が振る舞われた。

　ＮＧＯ団体「ホームレス支援基金」や学生ボランティア団体などが共同で実施し、正月時期の炊き出しは今年で６回目を数える。

　炊き出しを呼び掛けた「人権・福祉オンブズとちぎ」の原田芳子事務局長（４２）は、ホームレスの人向けに生活保護申請の付き添いやパトロールをしている。「明るく生活できれば一番なのですが。今日は皆で楽しく活動できてよかった」と話した。

　参加した男性（５４）は「正月に餅を食べられるのはうれしい」と笑顔で餅をほおばっていた。

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炊き出し：延長へ　熊本のＮＰＯ、離職者らを支援　／熊本

　路上生活者の支援活動をしているＮＰＯ法人「熊本ホームレス自立支援の会」は、昨年末から３日までの１０日間の予定で実施した炊き出しを、６日から再開することを決めた。嶋本勝博理事長は「雇い止めにあった派遣社員など生活に困った人のためにもうしばらく続けた方がいいと判断した」と話している。

　これまでと同様に熊本市水前寺６の３６の４の支援の会事務所で、６日～９日と１３日～１６日に予定している。いずれも午後６時から８時までの２時間。雇い止めにあった人だけでなく、離職中で生活困難な人などが対象。

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ハイテク化の波ここにも…参院が議事録の手書き速記廃止へ

　参院は通常国会から、本会議や一部の委員会以外の議事録作成方式を速記者が特殊な記号を使って質疑を記録する「手書き速記」からパソコンで入力する新方式に変更する。

　衆院も、２０１０年秋から独自の入力方式の実用化を目指しており、帝国議会開設以来、約１２０年の歴史を持つ手書き速記は、参院が先行する形で全面廃止に向け、第一歩を踏み出す。

　参院は０５年７月、人員削減のため、０６年度からの速記者の新規採用中止と、手書き速記の段階的廃止の方針を決め、約４億円をかけて新たな議事録作成方式の開発を進めてきた。

　新方式は、国会内で中継される審議の映像と音声をパソコンに取り込み、ヘッドホンで音声を聞きながらキーボードで文字入力する仕組みだ。聞き直す場合などは、パソコンに接続した足元のペダルで操作できるようにして、入力の迅速化を図ったのが特徴だ。

　０８年の通常国会と臨時国会で新方式と手書き速記を併用した結果、議事録作成の速度は手書き速記にかなわないものの、専門知識のない一般職員でも機器の操作が可能で、十分実用に堪えると判断した。当面は、議員向けに議事録の即日発行が求められている本会議と、全閣僚が出席する予算、決算、国家基本政策の３委員会以外で使用し、将来的にはすべての審議に広げる方針だ。

　一方、０５年度から速記者募集を中止している衆院では、音声をコンピューターで自動的に文章に変換するシステムの開発を進めている。１０年秋の臨時国会から段階的に使用を拡大していく考えだ。

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02:49 GMT, Friday, 2 January 2009
Vatican divorces from Italian law
By David Willey
BBC News, Rome

A sunset is seen behind St Peter's basilica at the Vatican, 24 December 2008

The Vatican City State, the world's smallest sovereign state, has decided to divorce itself from Italian law.

Vatican legal experts say there are too many laws in Italian civil and criminal codes, and that they frequently conflict with Church principles.

With effect from New Year's Day, the Pope has decided that the Vatican will no longer automatically adopt laws passed by the Italian parliament.

All Italian laws will be examined one by one before they are adopted.

Under the Lateran treaties signed exactly 80 years ago between Italy and the Pope, and the Italian Parliamentary system, Italian laws were applied automatically.

Government confession

A senior Vatican Canon lawyer, Monsignor Jose Maria Serrano Ruiz, has gone on record as saying that Italian laws are too many, too unstable and too often conflict with the moral teachings of the Catholic Church.

The reaction from the Italian government has been that from a technical point of view, the Vatican may well be right. Pope Benedict XVI (file image)

An Italian government minister admitted Italian laws are often badly written and are sometimes difficult to understand.

An Italian parliamentary commission is at present working out how to delete tens of thousands of obsolete laws from Italy's civil code.

The Vatican has also decided to scrutinise international treaties before deciding whether or not to adhere to them.

It has recently refused to approve a United Nations declaration decriminalising homosexuality.

The wording went too far, Vatican officials said, in placing different sexual orientations on the same level.

Some legal observers believe that the Vatican is simply trying to assert its legal independence in cases involving for example, civil unions, divorce, living wills, or euthanasia.

If Italy were to legalise same sex marriages or euthanasia, for example, the Vatican would now be able to refuse to recognise that.

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10:07 GMT, Friday, 2 January 2009
Dane held for 'shooting Israelis'
Police outside scene of shooting in Denmark

A Danish man of Palestinian origin has been arrested on suspicion of shooting and wounding two Israeli salesmen at a shopping centre in Odense in Denmark.

Police said they were unsure what the motive was, but Danish media have speculated it may have been a protest against Israeli air raids in Gaza.

The 27-year-old suspect turned himself in. He reportedly denies trying to kill the men but admits carrying a gun.

The men were shot on Wednesday while selling hair products.

One was hit in the arm and the other in the leg.

They were both still in hospital on Thursday but their injuries were not life-threatening, Reuters news agency reported.

Police said the pair had been in Denmark for about a week.

The attack came on the fifth day of Israeli air strikes against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, which Israel says were provoked by Palestinian rocket attacks.

Four Israelis have been killed by Palestinian rockets fired into Israel since the campaign began on Saturday, while medical sources say more than 400 Palestinians have now been killed in Gaza.

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19:38 GMT, Friday, 2 January 2009
Russia looks to re-route EU gas

Russian gas giant Gazprom says it can no longer depend on Ukraine as a transit route to the EU and is looking to develop alternatives.

In a BBC interview, the deputy chairman of Gazprom, Alexander Medvedev, said he hoped EU countries would back the move.

Gazprom cut off Ukraine's gas supply on Thursday in a row over payment.

The firm has since accused Ukraine of stealing gas, however Ukraine's state energy firm said Russia was not sending enough gas to ensure the EU supplies.

Ukraine's state gas company, Naftogaz, denied illegally siphoning Russian gas, saying it was ensuring the export supply.

"We believe it's necessary to develop, as soon as possible, alternative transit routes"
Gazprom's Alexander Medvedev

Ukraine has insisted it will not interfere with gas transported from Russia to other states via its pipelines, as it has enough gas in its reserves to look after its own needs for some time.

Hungary and Poland said pressure on their pipelines had dropped.

Naftogaz said earlier it was diverting some gas to maintain pressure in the pipeline network.

Negotiations

In his first foreign interview since the gas was cut off to Ukraine, Gazprom's Alexander Medvedev dismissed the suggestion his company was deliberately picking a fight with Kiev.

Instead he said Gazprom was ready to end the dispute immediately - but there was no-one to negotiate with.

"We are ready to enter negotiations day and night, but they probably have other tasks than to solve this problem because they are not in Moscow," he said.

Mr Medvedev said Gazprom has gone out of its way to ensure supplies of gas to Europe are maintained.

He said the problem was not with Russia, but Ukraine, adding "that's why we believe it's necessary to develop, as soon as possible, alternative transit routes".

The alternatives he talks of are two new pipelines Russia is planning to build that will by-pass Ukraine on their way to Western Europe.

The Nord Stream gas pipeline would run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, and the South Stream link would pass under the Black Sea.

The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes in Moscow says this latest dispute is expected to give those Russian plans a significant boost.

The Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency, said it would call a crisis meeting of envoys in Brussels on Monday to discuss the row.

Pipes across Ukraine carry about a fifth of the EU's gas needs. A similar row between Gazprom and Ukraine at the beginning of 2006 led to gas shortages in several EU countries.

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財務省、途上国向け知財保護基金　税関国際機関と協力

　財務省は発展途上国の知的財産保護を支援する。税関の国際機関である世界税関機構（ＷＣＯ）に新たな基金を設置し、その資金を活用して途上国の税関職員の能力開発に役立てる。水際での知財保護に特化した資金拠出は珍しい試みで、他の先進国にも協力を呼びかける。新興国や途上国の税関の取り締まり水準を高めることで、輸出段階での知財侵害物品の差し止めを目指す。

　ＷＣＯはブリュッセルに本部を置く税関の国際機関で、約170カ国が加盟している。財務省は月内にも、知財保護に特化した基金をＷＣＯの「税関協力基金」の一部として設置し、約2億円を拠出する。2009年度以降も継続して資金を出す。米国や欧州各国にも資金の拠出を呼びかけていく。(12:01)

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大和証券グループなど、外債の売買高急増　公認ディーラー減で

　大和証券グループなど日本の証券会社の外国債券売買高が急拡大している。欧米債券市場では国債に大量の資金が流入しており、国内外の機関投資家が相対的に金融危機の痛手が小さい日本の証券会社との取引を増やしているためだ。

　米国では相次ぐ金融再編に伴い、国債入札資格を持つ米ニューヨーク連邦銀行公認のプライマリーディーラーが17社と2年間で5社減った。日本勢では大和証券グループ、みずほ証券の2社が登録しており、短期国債などの取り扱いが急増しているという。

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企業年金の運用利回り、一段と悪化　08年4―11月マイナス16％

　金融危機の直撃による世界的な市場混乱で企業年金の運用が一段と悪化している。昨年4―11月の運用利回りはマイナス16％に低下しており、このまま株式相場の低迷が続けば2008年度は過去最悪となる可能性もある。運用の悪化で積立金が不足すれば企業業績の圧迫要因になるだけに、日立製作所が株式への資金配分を凍結するなど年金運用を見直す動きも広がっている。年金対策が日本企業の大きな経営課題のひとつになってきた。

　格付投資情報センター（Ｒ＆Ｉ）が約140の企業年金の4―11月の運用利回りを調べたところ、落ち込み幅は4―9月のマイナス5％から大きく拡大した。国内債券はプラス0.3％を確保したものの、国内株式がマイナス31％と大幅に悪化。外国株式がマイナス40％に落ち込んだうえ、急激な円高で外国債券もマイナス14％に悪化したことが響いた。

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住友大阪セメント、鉄筋腐食の防止施工コスト半分に

　住友大阪セメントは鉄筋コンクリートの表面に金属膜を形成し、鉄筋の腐食を防ぐ技術を開発した。施工コストを一般的な防食工法の約半分に抑えられる。橋梁（きょうりょう）などの補強工事向けに2010年3月期中の実用化を目指す。公共工事は年々縮小しているが、補強工事は拡大が見込まれており、新技術で収益源を広げる。

　開発したのはコンクリート表面に亜鉛を含む独自の金属素材を高熱で溶かし吹き付ける技術。表面にできる金属膜がコンクリートの中から鉄筋の腐食の原因になる塩化物イオンなどを吸い寄せる。材料費を含む施工コストは1平方メートル当たり約5万円で、コンクリートに微弱な電流を流す一般的な防食工法の半分。

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中国、東シナ海ガス田「樫」の単独開発継続　日本側は抗議

　東シナ海ガス田開発問題で、中国が日中双方の海岸線から等距離の中間線付近にあるガス田の1つである樫（中国名・天外天）で単独開発を継続していたことが4日、分かった。日本政府は事実関係を確認したのを受けて昨年7月、中国に抗議を申し入れた。

　日中両政府は昨年6月、ガス田共同開発で合意している。翌檜（あすなろ、同・龍井）付近の共同開発と中国が単独で開発していた白樺（同・春暁）への日本法人の出資が決まったが、樫や楠（同・断橋）などその他のガス田の取り扱いは継続協議になっていた。

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農水省、食品不正情報の検索容易に　データベース分類詳しく

　食品の原産地や消費期限などの偽装事件が後を絶たない中、農林水産省は、「食品表示１１０番」に消費者や業者らから寄せられた情報の検索システムを整備する方針を決めた。当初は来年度に新システムに移行する計画だったが前倒しして今年度中に整備し、全国に配置した「食品表示Ｇメン」の職員が不正を調査する際の“武器”として活用できるようにする。

　農水省は全国の農政事務所などに「食品表示１１０番」の窓口を設け、2002年度から消費期限改ざんなどの情報を受け付けている。食の安全への関心が高まるにつれて寄せられる情報は増加、06年度は1万6449件、07年度は2万4727件にのぼった。08年度は11月までに1万7588件に達し、前年度を上回る勢いだ。

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ゆうちょ銀行：５日、全国１４３０金融機関に接続

　日本郵政グループのゆうちょ銀行は５日、全国の民間金融機関が使っている決済システム（全国銀行データ通信システム）に接続する。接続により相互に振り込める金融機関が一気に拡大し、利便性が高まる。しかし、他の金融機関からゆうちょ銀への振り込みは、専用の新口座番号を使う必要があり、混乱が起きる可能性もある。

　従来、ゆうちょ銀と相互振り込みができたのは、新生銀行など２８の金融機関に限られていた。今回の接続で、全国約１４３０の金融機関に拡大する。

　ゆうちょ銀の口座番号は、記号５ケタと番号６～８ケタ、他の金融機関は店番３ケタと口座番号７ケタ。ゆうちょ銀から他の銀行へは通常の操作で振り込めるが、他の銀行からゆうちょ銀に振り込む時は専用番号を使う。記号の前から２、３ケタ目の数字に８を付けた３ケタを店番とし、番号は標準的な８ケタの場合で、下１ケタを省いた７ケタを口座番号として読み替える。

　ゆうちょ銀は昨年９月から来店者の通帳に振り込み専用番号を印字したり、１０月以降、国内の全世帯約５７００万世帯にダイレクトメールを送るなど周知活動を続けてきた。しかし、ゆうちょ銀の口座は約１億１０００万に上り、「高齢の利用者も多く、接続に際して不安が残る」（メガバンク）との声もある。

　問い合わせは、専用ダイヤル（０１２０・２５３８１１）。インターネットのサイト（ｈｔｔｐ：／／ｗｗｗ．ｊｐ－ｂａｎｋ．ｊａｐａｎｐｏｓｔ．ｊｐ／）でも確認できる。

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「派遣村」対応、万全に　首相、官房長官に指示

　麻生太郎首相は3日、都内の私邸で河村建夫官房長官に会い、厚生労働省が契約打ち切りなどで住居を失った元派遣社員らに講堂を開放していることに関して「その後のこともあるので対応に万全を期すように」と指示した。

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年越し派遣村：５日以降、廃校など４カ所に全員収容へ

　仕事や住居を失った派遣労働者らを支援するため東京・日比谷公園に開設された「年越し派遣村」の実行委員会は４日、入村者の宿泊場所として使用してきた厚生労働省の講堂の使用期限が切れる５日以降の対応について、同省と折衝した。厚労省は廃校など都内４カ所に１２日まで全員を収容する案を提示、実行委も同意した。

　この結果、入村者が５日以降行き場所を失う事態は避けられる見通しとなった。

　実行委によると、入村者は４日現在５００人に迫った。３日までに約１７０人が生活保護の申請を希望し、千代田区福祉事務所にファクスで申請書を送った。集団で窓口を訪れることも計画している。
　◇国会周辺でデモも

　５日は午前中に移動の準備を進め、雇用不安の改善を求めるデモ行進を国会周辺で行う予定。

　実行委の関根秀一郎・派遣ユニオン書記長は「今後も国の雇用政策のミスによる人災だということを強く訴えていく」と話した。

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５００人分の宿泊スペース確保　学校跡地など都内４カ所に

2009年1月4日 21時56分

　東京・日比谷公園の「年越し派遣村」実行委員会は４日夜、厚生労働省が公園や東京・霞が関の厚労省講堂に寝泊まりしている約５００人分の宿泊スペースとして、都内の廃校になった学校跡地の建物など４カ所を確保した、と明言したことを明らかにした。期間は１２日までの約１週間。

　講堂の使用期限が５日朝に迫り、実行委が衣食住の確保を求め厚労省と交渉を続けていた。実行委によると、支援を求めて集まった人たちはこの日さらに約１００人増え、約５００人に達した。

　派遣村を訪れる失業者らの中には持ち金が尽きて路上生活を余儀なくされ、衰弱しきっている人も多い。このため肺炎やインフルエンザにかかるなどして８人が入院。昨年１２月３１日の派遣村開設以来、連日５０－１００人がボランティアの医師たちの診察を受け、５人が救急車で運ばれた。

　派遣村の集会で、派遣ユニオンの関根秀一郎書記長は「こうした状況は、労働者を簡単に使い捨てできる政策のミスによって引き起こされた人災。国は救済する責務を果たすべきだ」と訴えた。

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都内４カ所５００人分の宿泊場所確保　年越し派遣村（1/2ページ）

2009年1月4日21時55分

　「派遣切り」などで仕事と住まいを失った人たちに寝場所と食事を提供する東京・日比谷公園の「年越し派遣村」は４日、昨年１２月３１日の開村から５日間で５００人近い人が入村登録をした。派遣村は仕事始めの５日朝に活動を終えるため、実行委員会が厚生労働省などと調整した結果、５日から１２日まで、都内４カ所の公共施設に５００人分の宿泊場所を確保することになった。

　実行委によると、移動先は中央区の廃校になった小学校２カ所と、大田区の一時保護施設など。派遣村の入村者のうち、希望者は５日に、日比谷公園や厚労省の講堂から、公共施設に移動する。ボランティアが日比谷公園で行っていた炊き出しも５日朝で終わるため、食事は弁当を提供してもらうという。

　これまで東京都内の自治体は、派遣切りされた人への住宅提供などの対策が遅れていたが、派遣村実行委員会や厚労省からの要請に、応じた形だ。

　厚労省が２日に開放した講堂で２晩を過ごした男性（４７）は４日朝、「また、路上に放り出されれば、凍死してしまう。国には何とかして欲しい」と訴えるなど、入村者の間には５日以降の行き先が決まらないことへの不安が高まっていた。新たな寝場所が確保されたことで、入村者の間にはホッとした空気が流れた。

　４日午後には「村民集会」も開かれ、民主党の菅直人代表代行や国民新党の亀井久興幹事長、新党大地の鈴木宗男代表ら野党各党の幹部も参加した。

　連日、職と住まいを失った多くの人たちが押し寄せる事態に、社民党の福島瑞穂党首は「これは政治災害であり雇用災害だ」と指摘。共産党の志位和夫委員長は「政治の責任で衣食住を確保しなければいけない」と話した。

　５日は通常国会が開会するため、入村者らは同日正午過ぎから、派遣切りされた労働者らの仕事や住居の確保を求め、国会へのデモ行進を計画している。その後に議員会館内で集会を開き、与野党に派遣切りの実情を訴えて対策を講じるよう求める予定だ。

　派遣村の入村者のうち約１７０人が生活保護の申請を希望しており、５日に一斉に手続きに入る。

　このため、東京都千代田区は５日朝から、同区役所１階の区民ホールに臨時窓口を設け、職員ＯＢも動員して生活保護の申請に訪れる人の相談に応じる。正式決定するまでには２週間程度かかる見込みだという。

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Conglomerates begin to shine for stock-pickers

By John Authers

Published: January 3 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 3 2009 02:00

The stockbroker's lexicon is full of euphemisms. One of the more insidious is "a stock-pickers' market". The positive spin on such a market is that there are returns on offer for those who pick the right stocks. A more realistic take is that the market as a whole is doing nothing - but you might just get by if you are lucky enough to pick the right stocks.

At present, a stockpickers' market, in either sense of the phrase, would be a boon. Last year was one of the most spectacular cases on record, when trying to pick the right stocks would have made little or no difference. Returns for the two traditional main styles of investing - "value" investing focused on stocks that are cheap compared to their fundamental value, and "growth" investing focused on stocks whose profits are growing - were virtually identical and, of course, very bad.

There was also barely any difference between the performance of larger and smaller companies. Even differences based on geography were minimal. Huge currency movements during 2008 ensured some variation, but a look at the performance of the main indices in North America, Western Europe and the developed markets of Asia showed that they all moved in line with each other.

All of this can readily be explained. Last year, unjustified optimism about the world economy turned to something more realistic in mid-summer, and then to something much worse after equity investors were taken by surprise by the financial crisis that followed the fall of Lehman Brothers.

From summer onwards, correlation between stocks rose to virtually unprecedented levels. Correlation tends to move in line with volatility, which also reached levels unseen even in the Great Crash of the early 1930s. According to David Kostin of Goldman Sachs, the average correlation of the stocks in the US S&P 500 index reached 66 per cent by the end of the year, by far the highest in two decades, while correlations within economic sectors were even higher.

And correlation between economic sectors, even though they should be affected very differently by a recession, is at its highest in more than 20 years.

Put simply, the "top-down" or "macro" bad news on the economy swamped any "bottom-up" or "micro" news that might have helped to differentiate companies. Instead, everyone sank together. Picking stocks became an irrelevant skill.

It is fair to assume that macro factors will drown out anything micro for a while. There will be intense interest in the government spending plans across the world, in central banks, and in any signs that deflation is turning to inflation.

But once markets have stabilised a little, correlations should come down. That does not necessarily imply a surge in broad indices; but it should mean that stock-pickers can make some money. After a sell-off so indiscriminate, some companies must now be badly undervalued compared to their peers.

How can we pick those stocks? It may be worth looking at sectors, where anything that can include the word "Obama" in the first sentence of its investment case should be in fashion. The new US president will spend a lot of money. Companies in sectors such as infrastructure or alternative energy that are well placed to receive a good share of the largesse could therefore outperform.

But rather than looking at how companies make money, stock-picking may be more a matter of gauging financial strength this year. Credit for companies will be severely constrained, by historical standards, for the whole of 2009. Companies that have least need of new debt, and that generate lots of their own cash, therefore look attractive.

Governments are almost daring investors to buy stocks. For anyone buying them now, the returns on cash, money market funds, and government bonds are terrible. That means many may be forced into equities to generate some return. So stock-pickers should pore through balance sheets for companies that pay regular and rising dividends, and generate the cash to keep doing so. Such stocks are likely to be in demand.

The credit crunch could also bring us back to the future when it comes to financial engineering. The boom in the middle of this decade, and the boom of the late 1980s, both owed much to the practice of using cheap debt to split large and cumbersome conglomerates - the "corporate raiders" of the 1980s became the private equity players of the 2000s.

Now, with debt much harder to obtain for borrowers, such financial engineering is largely impracticable. But the conglomerate structure might have new appeal. Rather than having to borrow from banks, or from the capital markets, a conglomerate can finance subsidiaries with cash generated by other businesses elsewhere in the company. Such companies tended to fare reasonably well in the "stock-pickers' market," as it might euphemistically be called, of the 1970s. And big companies, particularly conglomerates, that are less reliant on the credit market, may be set to outperform in the next stock-pickers' market.

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Foundations remain steady despite global instability

By Daniel Schäfer

Published: January 5 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 5 2009 02:00

Go to Hochtief's headquarters in Essen and it is easy to see why German companies are renowned for understatement and keeping a low profile.

Employees say the headquarters for more than 80 years, an inconspicuous concrete building, has the air of a tax office. Behind the facade, however, operates the most international construction company in the world, building everything from airports in Dubai to skyscrapers in Russia. It is also one of the few large European companies looking resilient amid the drastic global downturn.

While banks and many industrial companies reel from the crisis, Hochtief is thriving, Herbert Lütkestratkötter, its chief executive, says in an interview.

"Our order inflow is still robust. We hardly have any cancellations of orders," says the 58-year-old in charge of Germany's largest construction group, employing more than 53,000.

There is one notable exception: Dubai, where the "Dubai Trump Tower" was recently put on hold after the emirate was hit hard by the financial crisis. But this was compensated for quickly with Leighton, Hochtief's majority-owned Australian affiliate, receiving a contract to build a new airport in Dubai.

Mr Lütkestratkötter says Hochtief is well on track to achieve its aim of increasing its pre-tax profit for last year. In the first three quarters, the company's orders and pre-tax profit rose by more than 20 per cent.

The key to the group's success is that it turned its back on the badly performing German market years ago, rapidly expanding to regions with more growth and higher profit margins. Today, almost 90 per cent of its business is abroad.

The group last year scaled down its German construction volumes, Mr Lütkestratkötter says. This might explain why he feels free to criticise the European Central Bank for its "adventurous" way of tendering the construction of a new headquarters in Frankfurt.

Another factor that keeps Hochtief afloat is that its business model has changed from mere construction to operating and developing buildings and infrastructure projects, with contracts that often stretch over 10, 20 or even 40 years.

The company's conservative approach to business also plays out in the times of the credit crunch. "We never went to the limit with our financing and accounting," Mr Lütkestratkötter says.

This cannot be said of Oleg Deripaska, formerly the second-largest shareholder of Hochtief. The Russian oligarch sold his stake two months ago after he had been hit by the financial crisis, leaving ACS, the Spanish construction group, as the only large shareholder with a quarter stake.

Hochtief had been criticised for its low gearing in the past as it had an equity to assets ratio of a relatively strong 26 per cent, Mr Lütkestratkötter says. "Today our former critics say this is the appropriate way." Hochtief has recently bucked the trend of companies cutting back on share buybacks and launched a €139m ($194m) programme.

If financial markets do not revive in 2009, there is also the danger "that all the government sponsored infrastructure programmes will have difficulties to be executed as they will run into financing trouble", he adds.

For now, Mr Lütkestratkötter is still optimistic. "I am very confident that we will profit a lot from the newly installed infrastructure programmes around the world," he says.

Unlike Hochtief's headquarters, its actual business could shine next year in the midst of the dark days for many other companies.

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Sterling’s fall can rescue Britain

By Peter Oppenheimer

Published: January 4 2009 19:04 | Last updated: January 4 2009 19:04

Two seemingly opposite dispositions among policymakers have done much to bring about the recession. One is undue faith in markets. The other is undue faith in themselves. Both were typified in the US by Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, and in Britain by Gordon Brown, the prime minister. Mr Greenspan has shamefacedly admitted it. Mr Brown has yet to do so. Their failures may be partly a matter of individual psychology but they also have systemic and intellectual roots. To gain insight into these, historical parallels help.

One is tempted to compare Mr Greenspan with Rudolf von Havenstein, the man in charge of the German Reichsbank during the 1923 hyperinflation. At the height of the crisis he promised to relieve the shortage of currency through the Reichsbank’s new high-speed printing presses. But Mr Greenspan’s failings, although extending to monetary policy, were mainly in financial sector regulation, where his instinct was to rescue delinquent institutions without disciplining them.

For the same reason an analogy with Arthur Burns does not work. Burns was Richard Nixon’s Fed chairman. In the aftermath of the 1971 dollar devaluation he pursued untrammelled monetary expansion to boost Nixon’s re-election prospects, thereby helping to kindle the global inflation of the 1970s.

The parallel is much closer between Mr Brown and Burns’ British partner in crime, Anthony Barber, who as chancellor of the exchequer was author of the Heath-Barber boom of 1970-73. This, like Mr Brown’s fiscal expansionism, was supposed to put an end to “stop-go” in the British economy. It too ended in monetary collapse, namely the secondary banking crisis, which came close to necessitating the rescue of NatWest. No less illuminating, however, than these similarities between Mr Brown and Barber are the differences. The Brown boom threatens to prove far more damaging than its predecessor, because it lasted so much longer – more like 10 years than two-and-a-half – thanks to international payments patterns and elastic credit markets.

This meant a correspondingly prolonged overvaluation of sterling and of UK assets. British export capacity, especially in manufacturing, was severely eroded. In the face of poor productivity performance, expansion relied on immigrant inflows and external borrowing. British consumers became habituated to unsustainable spending, based on misleading indicators of household wealth as well as lax credit conditions.

So much for the bad news. Two aspects of today’s global economy make the prospects for renewed upturn nonetheless more favourable than was the case 35 years ago – or for that matter 75 years ago, in the early 1930s. One is that, despite disconcerting fluctuations in commodity markets, especially for oil and gas, the world has had near-stable price levels for two decades, something not achieved since 1914. The other is that world economic expansion is no longer hyper-dependent on the North Atlantic area. Asia has come into its own, led by China and India. They are not immune to global recession in the short term. But their underlying growth impetus is a long way from exhaustion. They are not on a deceleration threshold like that of western Europe in 1970 or of Japan in the late 1980s.

It follows that the most promising development for re-expanding Britain’s economy in the medium term is the decline in the sterling exchange rate. This was achieved by currency market responses to the emergency easing of monetary policy precipitated by the banking crisis. No further macro-policy activism is appropriate for the UK at this juncture – certainly not the knee-jerk fiscal stimulus rightly mocked by Germany’s finance minister.

The “automatic stabiliser” effects of lower tax receipts and higher social security spending are the only source of wider UK budget deficits that should be contemplated. Debate on this matter being unavoidably associated with John Maynard Keynes, it needs emphasising that in his The General Theory he was concerned with escape routes from chronic depression, not with growth maintenance or damping the “normal” business cycle.

The main strategic challenge today is not demand management but regulation of financial markets. These need to become less competitive and less technically inventive. In short, more boring. The difficulty of achieving this in a world of global enterprise is not to be underestimated.

The writer is student (ie fellow) emeritus of Christ Church, Oxford

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Insurers ready to benefit from lessons learned

By Andrea Felsted in London

Published: January 5 2009 00:48 | Last updated: January 5 2009 00:48

After dire predictions, the insurance industry has so far held up relatively well amid the financial maelstrom.

“It was a good thing we had the 2000-2003 crisis. ­Insurers, particularly in Europe, were tested by that. I am sure we would not have a credit crisis to the extent that we are seeing today if the banking system had been really tested five to six years ago,” says Thomas Hess, chief economist at Swiss Re.

In spite of the lessons that were learned from the three years of falling stock markets in that period, the industry has not been immune from the turmoil in global financial markets.

The most high-profile casualty is AIG, which had to be bailed out by the US government after a series of disastrous bets on complex financial instruments.

Swiss Re last year suffered a $1.1bn loss on insurance it had written on complex instruments, while Bermuda-based XL Capital also incurred losses, partly from an investment in a bond insurer.

Meanwhile, ING, the Dutch bancassurer, has received a €10bn ($14bn) capital injection from the government, while Aegon has received a €3bn infusion.

Several US life assurers have also sought capital injections, and some have applied for funds under the US government’s Troubled Asset Relief Programme.

According to Mr Hess, capital held by global life assurers and general insurers, excluding that belonging to policyholders, has fallen from $2,200bn at the end of 2007 to about $1,900bn today.

While stock markets have recovered from recent lows, fears about insurers have been reignited by a surprise profit warning from Axa of France.

Industry experts point out that insurers have already been tested by recent lows, with the FTSE 100 touching 3,781 in November.

Analysts at JP Morgan Cazenove estimated that UK life assurers’ spare capital fell by 9 per cent in the third quarter, and by late ­November had probably fallen by a further 5 per cent.

Clearly, insurers would be at risk from market falls below recent floors.

But perhaps the biggest determinant of insurers’ solvency is what happens in the corporate bond markets. Many insurers cut their exposure to equities following the bear market of 2000-2003. But they increased their holdings of corporate bonds.

In the UK, life assurers sold about £100bn ($145bn) of equities between 2000 and 2003, and bought about £80bn of corporate bonds.

“Most of the rotation was from equities into corporate bonds,” says Ned Cazalet, an independent life assurance analyst.

Investors are concerned that, as the downturn bites, corporate borrowers will be unable to service their debt, forcing a wave of defaults, further eroding insurers’ investment portfolios, and forcing them to cut their dividends or raise capital.

“An increase in defaults is the huge risk. The good news is so far there have not been many defaults of bonds. [Whether that continues] that is the big question mark,” says one senior executive.

But regulators appear to be taking a flex­ible app­roach to insurers’ capital bases in an effort to avoid a situation where they could be forced to sell equities and bonds in falling markets.

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners has given the go-ahead to several proposals submitted by US life assurers designed to ease their capital and reserve requirements.

The UK’s Financial Services Authority is set to take a more flexible approach, while European standard-setters are to rethink financial reporting rules that could sharply reduce some life assurers’ profits and solvency capital.

Either way, insurers’ business models are likely to change as a result of the crisis. Insurers have been ferocious cost-cutters, even in good years, and this is expected to intensify.

There are also questions about whether some product lines will remain viable. Offering products with a guaranteed return or level of income is extremely difficult in volatile markets.

Indeed, the pain being felt by US life assurers largely stems from writing popular US savings products with guarantees, which are known as variable annuities. It is much more expensive for insurers to honour these guarantees in poor markets.

Kurt Karl, Swiss Re’s chief US economist, expects ­variable annuities to be simplified, so that it is easier for life assurers to hedge the risks.

“We would expect [insurers] not stopping, but redesigning [variable annuities],” he says.

Prior to the turmoil, expectations were that variable annuities would proliferate across continental Europe and the UK.

However, Standard Life, the UK life assurer, has delayed introducing a form of variable annuity into its domestic market, because of the turmoil.

But there look to be ­opportunities amid the gloom. Reinsurers were hoping for higher prices at the January 1 reinsurance renewal. The cost of reinsurance is expected to be driven up by a combination of about $25bn of hurricane losses, erosion of reinsurance capital and an inability to replenish balance sheets amid closed debt and volatile stock markets.

“All the drivers are in place to increase pricing in the reinsurance market,” says Dane Douetil, chief executive of Brit, a Lloyd’s insurer.

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Falling share prices spur Japanese buy-backs

By Robin Harding in Tokyo

Published: January 5 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 5 2009 02:00

The global stock market slump has driven Japanese companies to buy back more of their own shares, in spite of their reputation for hoarding investors' cash.

There were buy-backs at 587 listed companies last year, according to figures from data provider I-N Information Systems, up 33 per cent on 2007. The value of buy-backs fell by 17 per cent, less than the 42 per cent fall in the Topix index, taking repurchases close to a record relative to the total value of Japan's stock market.

The figures suggest that Japanese managers are heeding investors who criticise them for keeping cash rather than giving it back to shareholders. But some managers may simply feel that their share price is too low.

Buy-backs, which can increase returns for investors by reducing cash on the balance sheet and cutting the number of shares outstanding, are a common demand of activist funds such as Steel Partners of the US.

Last month Steel Partners called on Brother Industries, a maker of printers and sewing machines in which it has a 10 per cent stake, to buy back almost a third of its outstanding shares.

"Other Japanese companies have taken advantage of current market weakness to buy back shares at favourable prices, and we believe Brother should do likewise," said Warren Lichtenstein of Steel Partners.

As the Topix index slumped in October and November, taking the share price of many companies below the value of their assets, there was a rush to launch buy-backs.

Canon, one of Japan's largest corporations, spent Y50bn ($544m) and bought back more than 1 per cent of its outstanding equity during the first week of November. Okuma, a Nagoya-based maker of machine tools, bought back 1.2 per cent of its shares at a discount to book value of almost 30 per cent. However, the overall value of buy-backs dropped in 2008 as the stock market declined and financial institutions started to raise capital.

The largest single buy-back was by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, which acquired Y239bn of stock from its own subsidiaries in July. The bank then sold treasury shares as part of the Y990bn fundraising that followed its purchase of a stake in Morgan Stanley.

The pharmaceutical, telecoms and technology sectors were also big buyers of their own shares. Toyota, Japan's biggest company, spent Y195bn on buy-backs.

But buy-backs remain small compared with other countries at only 0.08 per cent of total stock market value in 2008. Many companies, such as Nintendo, which has Y838bn in cash on its balance sheet, argue that retaining funds gives them financial flexibility.

Analysts expect buy-backs to be limited in 2009 as the economic downturn prompts banks and other companies to hold on to cash.

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Cocoa prices soar to 23-year high on fears over dwindling supplies

By Javier Blas, Commodities Correspondent

Published: December 24 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 24 2008 02:00

Cocoa prices yesterday surged to a 23-year high as speculative investors poured into the market amid concerns about dwindling supplies from Ivory Coast, by far the world's largest producer.

Prices for cocoa have risen 70 per cent in the past year, bucking the weakness in overall commodities prices.

The drop in sterling has helped push London-based, sterling-denominated cocoa futures higher, but analysts said the main factor was low supplies.

The International Cocoa Organisation said in its latest monthly report that cocoa bean arrivals until the end of November at ports in Ivory Coast, which provides almost 40 per cent of the world's supplies, were the lowest in years. "Only 251,000 tonnes of beans are estimated to have reached the local ports during the first two months of the current season, a level around 40 per cent below average for the four preceding seasons," it said.

The problem has continued in December - the traditional peak of the harvesting season - because of the impact of cold weather and heavy rains earlier this year, the so-called black pod disease, reduced use of fertiliser because of high prices and a spate of strikes among farmers and customs personnel, traders said. They added that cocoa supplies from Ghana, the second-largest producer, were also lower than last season.

As a result, Fortis bank warned that the market faces its third seasonal deficit in a row, further depleting global stocks, which are already at a 20-year low. Inventories are at 39 per cent of global consumption, down from 54 per cent in 2005-06. In London, Euronext-Liffe cocoa for delivery in May, the market benchmark, yesterday jumped to £1,820 a tonne, the highest since October 1985, and 4 per cent higher on the day. New York cocoa futures, denominated in dollars, have risen almost 30 per cent in the past year.

Fortis, nevertheless, said the market was overbought, warning that traders were "fully discounting that, on the production side, everything that can go wrong . . . will indeed go wrong", without paying attention to lower demand because of the impact of the economic crisis. Although cocoa consumption has been in the past resilient to economic downturns, traders forecast a drop next year, particularly in the US and Europe.

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Tar sands refinery projects face a sticky future

By Sheila McNulty

Published: January 5 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 5 2009 02:00

US refineries are expanding operations to process oil from Canada's tar sands just as efforts are building to limit the use of the more polluting fuels.

There have been at least two proposals for new refineries in the US and about two dozen expansions to process tar sands oil. Canada's tar sands - the largest proven reserves outside Saudi Arabia - have become the focal point for the world's leading oil companies, which are increasingly being blocked from new opportunities by nationalism in oil-rich countries.

While the drop in oil prices, the credit crisis and slowing global economy could stall some projects on either side of the border, many refinery expansions are already under way, including those by BP, ConocoPhillips, Valero and Marathon.

Analysts estimate pipeline companies and refiners plan to invest more than $31bn by 2015 to export, process and distribute oil sands products. Investments in new tar sands production have risen in recent years as oil companies rush to the tar sands' 175bn barrels of reserves.

But business and environmental questions are rising over tar sands just as public opinion turns against them.

Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist at investment company ARC Financial, says one must challenge the assumption that there is a ready and willing market for an unlimited amount of tar sands oil.

Producing a barrel of synthetic crude from oil sands results in greenhouse gas emissions three to five times greater than a barrel of conventional crude. It also does enormous damage to one of the planet's biggest carbon-storage banks - known as the boreal forest - as trees, peat and soil are ruined.

Politicians are also moving against the tar sands. Congress last year upheld a recent law barring the use of fuel from Canada's oil sands while US mayors encouraged cities against using it.

"What we're seeing is a lot of growing risk in tar sands,'' said Susan Casey-Lefkowitz, an attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an advocacy group.

The new law prohibits the federal government from procuring fuels with a higher greenhouse gas content than conventional fuels, such as that from Canada's oil sands. While Congress has yet to enforce that law, it is likely to be given serious consideration under Barack Obama's presidency and could affect billions of dollars in trade in oil as the Department of Defense alone is the world's largest buyer of light refined petroleum.

The US Conference of Mayors also passed a resolution this year encouraging mayors to stop purchasing higher-carbon unconventional or synthetic fuels such as oil sands for city vehicles.

Mayor Kitty Piercy of Eugene, Oregon, who submitted the resolution, said: "We don't want to spend taxpayer dollars on fuels that make global warming worse."

Refineries, which account for almost 15 per cent of the carbon dioxide emitted from industrial processes in the US, are already coming under fire as big pollutants from a group of states.

Environmentalists believe investment in tar sands production will go down, leaving refiners with excess capacity.

"The number of people betting this was going to be the next big thing is clearly changing,'' said Steven Kallick, director of The Pew Environment Group's boreal conservation project.

Falling petrol demand dims outlook

While US refiners are placing long-term bets on growing production from Canada's tar sands, their short-term decisions are based on falling commodity prices, writes Sheila McNulty in Houston .

Valero, the biggest refiner in the US, notes that while crude oil prices have dropped, which ordinarily would be good for refiners, prices for the refined product, petrol, have dropped even further. Indeed margins on petrol have been negative for the past couple of months.

Bill Klesse, Valero's chief executive, said he expects refiners to cut back on petrol production until the margin environment improves.

"The outlook is not great,'' said Neil McMahon, senior analyst at Bernstein Research. Yet he believes Valero is likely to fare better than anyone given its diversified asset base.

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Wall Street ‘red light’ on Madoff

By Henny Sender in New York

Published: January 4 2009 23:31 | Last updated: January 4 2009 23:31

Large Wall Street firms privately harboured suspicions about Bernard Madoff’s investment business, in some cases steering clients away from dealing with him, but were reluctant to share their concerns with regulators, according to US bankers.

Banks were sceptical that Mr Madoff could deliver the consistently high returns that he reported, and they were also put off by a lack of transparency at his investment firm. For these reasons, big Wall Street firms are notably absent from the long list of victims of Mr Madoff’s alleged Ponzi scheme.

Fabio Savoldelli, chief investment officer of Merrill Lynch Investment Management prior to its 2006 merger with BlackRock, sounded the warning internally years ago. One of Merrill’s financial advisers, who deals with clients worth tens of millions of dollars, recalled Mr Savoldelli’s suspicions of Mr Madoff’s returns eight years ago.

Two years ago, an internal Merrill report drawn up in connection with Merrill’s European fund of funds group, concluded the group should not deal with Mr Madoff, the financial adviser said. “We had a red light on doing business with him. There was no transparency.”

However, a fear of alienating clients who had invested with Mr Madoff prevented many Merrill executives from voicing their concerns too loudly. “You sell your product but you don’t bad-mouth others. You don’t say bad things about Bernie Madoff. That is where you cross the line,” one former Merrill staffer recalled being told by a senior executive.

The large surviving investment banks did not put Mr Madoff’s funds on the recommended list of their investment arms and never dealt directly with him in their prime brokerage arms.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management said it “never felt comfortable with Madoff”, because it “never understood the investment process or the returns ... if clients wanted to invest with him, they did not do it through us”.

Goldman’s scepticism extended to Tremont Group Holdings, a fund of hedge funds based in Rye, New York, that gave more than $3bn to Mr Madoff through several channels. In 2001, when Tremont was sold to Oppenheimer, the brokerage, Goldman was representing another potential buyer. But Tremont did not let Goldman’s team have a close look at the firm’s operation, so Goldman’s client backed out.

Goldman never sounded the alarm with regulators. However, investment banks have no obligation to report suspected wrongdoing, lawyers say.

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HK's Hutchison insists it is on track with Ecuador port project

AFP

Hong Kong-based Hutchison Port Holdings said Monday it was fully in compliance with a contract to develop a port in Ecuador, following reports the country's president said it could halt the project.
President Rafael Correa said over the weekend that Hutchison, the world's biggest container port operator, was in danger of losing its 520 million US dollar contract to develop facilities at the Port of Manta, the South China Morning Post reported.

He said he had issued the company a "yellow card" over the development and if it did not meet the timetable "it will have to leave the country and you know we are not joking," the Post quoted him as saying.

Anthony Tam, a spokesman for Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), said the company was meeting its commitment and was unaware of any changes to its contract.

"We are in compliance with the concession agreement, and have been working closely with the local authorities to develop modern container-handling facilities at the Port of Manta," Tam said in a statement.

"HPH is committed to the long-term development of port infrastructure in Ecuador so as to maintain its commercial competitiveness in the region. We have not heard anything about changes to our concession contract."

The firm is owned by Hong Kong conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa, which is the flagship firm of one of Asia's richest men, Li Ka-shing.

HPH signed a 30-year concession with the Manta Port Authority in 2006 to develop and manage the cargo terminal. The company has interests in 50 ports across the world, including in Argentina, the Bahamas, Mexico and Panama.

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派遣村終了、交錯する期待と不安の声　　 (1/3ページ)
2009.1.5 13:32
このニュースのトピックス：格差社会
厚労省で開かれた集会で説明に耳を傾ける失業者＝５日午前１０時７分厚労省で開かれた集会で説明に耳を傾ける失業者＝５日午前１０時７分

　日比谷公園（東京都千代田区）に開設された「年越し派遣村」が５日朝に「閉村」した。厚生労働省や都の支援策の一環で都内４カ所に用意された旧学校施設などへ移る元派遣社員らからは「光が見えてきた」「不安はある」など、今後の生活に不安と期待の声が漏れた。

　集まった人は国会周辺のデモ行進にも参加。生活保護の申請も随時していくという。

　厚労省近くの日比谷公園では、ボランティアらが朝からごみ回収などの後片づけを開始。園内に設営されたテントの解体も行い、撤去作業を行った。国会議員らが激励に駆けつける姿も見られた。

　最後に出された朝食は、おにぎりとけんちん汁。寒風が吹く中、元派遣社員らは湯気が立ち上る汁をすすっていた。

　いすゞ自動車藤沢工場（神奈川県藤沢市）で派遣として働いていた男性（４７）は寮の退去日前日の今月４日に寮を出て、派遣村のテントで一夜を過ごしたという。

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「怖くて運転できない」相次ぐ凶行にタクシー運転手が悲鳴
2009.1.5 14:38

　三度、“密室”の車内での凶行が繰り返された。仕事始めの５日早朝、大阪府松原市でタクシー運転手、野澤俊樹さん（６１）が首を切られ、売上金を奪われた強盗殺人未遂事件。「これでは安心して運転できない」。昨年末に兵庫、大阪両府県でタクシー運転手を狙った強盗殺人事件が相次いだ中での犯行に、運転手からは不安の声が上がった。

　野澤さんが勤務していた大阪市東淀川区のタクシー会社「国際興業大阪」には、早朝から報道陣が詰めかけた。

　同社によると、野澤さんは４日午前９時から乗務を開始。翌５日午前４時ごろまでに、所属する同社の我孫子営業所へ入庫予定だった。午前５時ごろに、近くを通った同僚が野澤さんのタクシーのメーターが倒れたままになっているのを発見したという。

　同社のタクシーはメーターを倒すと、自動的に乗車地などの日報を記録するシステム。日報によると、野澤さんは事件発生まで３４回の乗務をこなし、最後の客を「大阪市平野区喜連２」で乗せ、「松原市三宅中８」が降車地となっていた。この日は、車内には少なくとも６万円の売り上げがあったという。

　野澤さんは平成９年７月に入社。１回の乗務で平均５万～６万円を売り上げるなど営業成績は優秀で、温厚な人柄から同僚にも慕われているという。

　野澤さんの同僚の運転手は「兵庫で事件が起きたときも、東大阪で起きたときも気をつけなければとは思っていたが、まさか同僚が襲われるとは」と驚いた様子。この同僚は３年前にタクシー強盗の被害に遭い、数万円を奪われたという。「首筋にカッターナイフを突きつけられ、本当に動転した。私の場合、けがはせずにすんだが、野澤さんは最初、意識がないと聞いた。助かってくれればいいのだが」と安否を気遣った。

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橋下版“派遣切り”に抗議　大阪府立校の非常勤職労、府庁前で
2009.1.5 14:04

　橋下徹大阪府知事の財政再建策によって府立学校の非常勤職員約３５０人の雇用が今年度末で打ち切られることに反発し、労働組合「なかまユニオン」に所属する教員らが５日、マイクでの呼びかけなどの抗議行動を府庁前で行った。

　仕事始めの府職員らに向け、教員らは「“派遣切り”が問題になり全国の自治体が支援策を講じている中、大阪府は非正規職員を大量解雇しようとしている」と批判。「こうした職員たちがいなくなれば、来年度からは授業の運営にも支障が出かねない」と訴えた。この後、解雇撤回を指導するよう求める文書を大阪労働局に提出した。

　府立学校の非常勤職員は、理科の実験や家庭科実習の補助などの業務を担当。制度廃止により約５億円の支出が削減されるが、教育現場からは「正規教員の負担が増え学校運営に混乱を招く」といった声もあがっている。

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Europe feels heat from gas stand-off

By Financial Times Reporters

Published: January 5 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 5 2009 02:00

Russia and Ukraine traded insults at the weekend as a gas stand-off between the two countries entered a fifth day causing gas shortages to ripple west into Europe.

Poland reported an 11 per cent drop in Russian gas deliveries through Ukraine yesterday and appeared to be the worst hit by the dispute. The Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey are also affected.

In an escalation of tensions, Gazprom said it would sue Ukraine in the international arbitration court in Stockholm for stealing gas and reneging on a long-term gas transit contract signed in 2002.

Russia embargoed gas supplies to Ukraine on January 1 after talks on a deal for this year collapsed, echoing a dispute in 2006 when gas shortages were felt deeply in Europe.

Both sides have guaranteed to maintain deliveries to Europe which relies on Russian gas via Ukrainian pipelines to meet one fifth of its demand.

However, Naftogaz, Ukraine's state gas company, warned that it would face technical problems delivering gas to Europe within a fortnight unless Gazprom resumed supplies.

Gazprom said its ability to compensate for gas shortfalls in Europe with supplies through non-Ukrainian pipelines was "not unlimited".

PGNiG, the Polish oil and gas company, said it was relying on Russian gas delivered through Belarus to compensate for the shortfall through the transit pipeline from Ukraine.

Naftogaz said transit terms for 2009 had not yet been agreed and accused Gazprom of cutting supplies to Europe to blacken its name.

Alexander Medvedev, the deputy chief executive of Gazprom, said the Naftogaz claim was a "direct lie".

"The contract is black and white, signed and stamped," he told reporters in Berlin.

Legal experts could not verify the rival claims because Russian-Ukrainian gas contracts are secret.

Mr Medvedev embarked on a whirlwind tour of Europe at the weekend to drum up support. He urged the European Union to put pressure on Ukraine to honour its transit obligations as a signatory to the European energy charter.

The EU has refused to mediate in what it sees as a commercial dispute between two companies, but has called a meeting of its 27-member states today to co-ordinate a response.

The chances of an early truce appeared to recede yesterday when Gazprom accused Ukraine of blocking talks and said it would charge $450 per 1,000 cubic metres for gas this year, double the Naftogaz offer.

Naftogaz said it would resume negotiations if Gazprom proposed a "reasonable" price. "What kind of talks can there be with a price of $450?" asked Valentyn Zemlyansky, a Naftogaz spokesperson. "Why not $500; why not $600?"

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Fatal flaw weakens German rescue package

By Hans-Werner Sinn

Published: January 4 2009 18:52 | Last updated: January 4 2009 18:52

Over the past few months, governments have approved €3,500bn ($4,940bn, £3,430bn) in rescue packages for banks. Germany’s own package, steamrollered through parliament, amounts to €540bn – exceeding even the US measures. Still, in the eyes of many, Germany is not doing all it can to prop up the economy. To cap it all, its bank rescue package is hobbled by what could prove to be a fatal flaw.

Germany is more severely affected by the subprime crisis than was first assumed. With its substantial capital exports of €170bn in 2007, after China the country was the largest lender in the international capital market that the US tapped to finance its spending. As Americans stopped saving and used mortgages to finance consumer spending, the US took on more foreign debt. Recently US capital imports amounted to more than $600bn a year, a massive 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product, surpassing historical precedents. To attract the money, US banks created new types of securities, such as mortgage-backed securities.

Today it is clear that much of the money that was lent to US homeowners will not be paid back, because of falling house prices and the fact that banks have no claims, according to US law, on the wages of debtors. The holders of the letters of credit, above all German banks, must thus write off a good portion of their claims. This means that their business volume is not sufficiently covered by equity, which will force them to make up the difference somehow.

To stabilise their balance sheets, German banks have the choice of issuing new equity or reducing their business volume in proportion to their write-offs. In light of the low value of bank stocks, it is difficult to raise equity. The lowering of business volume via a fall in the amount of credit that is taken on and lent out will be inevitable. For an economy dependent on banks to finance investment, this means the danger of a domestic credit crunch and a transfer of the banking crisis to the real economy.

According to a recent Ifo survey, 39 per cent of all companies already complain about credit constraints. Concerns about access to capital are rising sharply, in particular in large corporations whose credit demands cannot be satisfied by Germany’s savings banks, which are protected by the state.

The German rescue plan is intended to prevent a credit crunch by making available to the banks government equity of up to €80bn, which represents about a fifth of the equity the banks held in the summer. The state has intervened as a stockholder in the banks to prevent them from collapsing and to enable them to maintain their levels of lending. In addition, the state has offered itself as guarantor of debt to make it easier for banks to borrow. The government is also prepared to purchase their toxic securities, with more than €400bn made available for this end.

Berlin has tied its aid to a number of conditions, which are now being defined in statutory orders. One of the conditions that is causing problems for the banks is the decision to limit the salaries of top management to €500,000 a year. This condition will not undermine insolvency protections, since before a bank goes bankrupt it will take advantage of the government funds. However, it will prevent banks that are weak but not threatened with bankruptcy from taking on government equity. Faced with the choice of reducing business or seeking to return to previous volumes by accepting government equity, bank executives will opt for the first alternative in order to avoid cutting their own salaries.

In doing so, the executives will not even be acting against the interests of their own shareholders, since the returns to the latter will not increase if they accept the government as a stockholder – one that would demand a fair share of future dividends. For this reason the supervisory boards also cannot force executive boards to take on the government equity.

This is a serious design flaw in the German rescue package. One cannot give the banks the freedom to decide whether to accept help and at the same time threaten managers with salary cuts. To achieve the urgently needed recapitalisation of the banking system, one must either drop the salary restrictions or force banks to take on government equity. If that does not happen, the rescue programme will fail. A clear sign of this is that so far only one private sector bank, Commerzbank, has accepted the government offer from its proposed new rescue package. Only the state-run Landesbanken are waiting in line to accept the government money.

No other country limits manager salaries in the way Germany has decided to do. In Ireland the minister of finance expressed sympathy for a salary cap but made no move to introduce it. In the UK the government sought to curb bonuses for 2008, not executive salaries. Many countries have announced plans to promote rewards for managers linked to long-term success, but this has nothing to do with salary limits. Only the US package is a bit stricter – the portion of manager salaries that exceeds $500,000 will be double-taxed as dividends, ie be subjected to corporation tax and personal income tax, if a bank makes use of the government assistance.

Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, has forced all large banks to take on government equity. Only Germany’s politicians live under the illusion that managers will voluntarily let themselves be punished.

The writer is professor of economics and public finance at the University of Munich and president of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research

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M&S hard hit as UK stores feel the pinch

By Elizabeth Rigby

Published: January 4 2009 19:45 | Last updated: January 4 2009 19:45

Marks and Spencer, one of Britain’s retailing bellwethers, is expected to deliver its worst Christmas trading performances in a decade this week as the effects of the spending downturn are laid bare by some of the high street’s biggest names.

Analysts are sharpening their pencils for a round of hefty downgrades when reporting kicks off on Tuesday with Next, Debenhams and privately-owned New Look revealing how they fared over Christmas.

While Next and Debenhams are expected to report falling sales, M&S is likely to be the weakest performer.

The City expects overall sales at M&S to be down between 5.5 and 9.6 per cent, with underlying sales in clothing and home expected to be off by 6 to 10 per cent.

M&S’s troubled food division, which has been losing market share to more keenly priced rivals, is also expected to report a sizeable decline in like-for-like sales.

While M&S will be one of the weaker high street performers, few will escape the bloodbath. A combination of falling consumer confidence and tightening credit conditions has brought misery to Britain’s retailers, particularly those selling discretionary or big ticket items such as clothes, televisions and furniture. Many have been forced to slash prices, which in turn has hurt profits.

M&S cut its prices in the approach to Christmas, staging two one-day sales in an effort to stimulate flagging revenue. It also put some items on sale in the last fortnight before Christmas, crystallising fears that it will be one of the biggest casualties of the downturn in spending. Next, meanwhile, waited until after Christmas day to begin its sales.

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Originative sin: the future of banking

By John Plender

Published: January 4 2009 19:12 | Last updated: January 4 2009 19:12

Analysis

For the late John Kenneth Galbraith, an acute observer of market folly, finance and innovation were fundamentally incompatible. Every new financial instrument, he said, “is, without exception, a small variation on an established design, one that owes its distinctive character to the ... brevity of financial memory”. The world of finance “hails the invention of the wheel over and over again, often in a slightly more unstable version”.

After the devastating collapse of a credit bubble that had seen explosive growth in new financial instruments, many politicians might feel Galbraith, if anything, understates the damage wrought by financial innovation.

So the post-bubble policy agenda is bound to address important questions. Is financial innovation a blessing or a curse? Given, at the very least, that it is double-edged, should innovation in finance be curbed, or kept far removed from the conventional commercial banking sector? And how possible is it anyway to control the inventiveness of banking’s rocket scientists on Wall Street and in London or the eagerness of their employers to make money from their ideas?

The extent of the detritus bears thinking about. Subprime mortgages that promised home ownership to millions on low incomes have inflicted the misery of repossession. Increasingly complex forms of mortgage-backed paper left the banks that invented them at the mercy of both a liquidity and a solvency crunch.

Those such as Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve who claimed that financial innovation was distributing risk to the people in the system best able to shoulder it, have been proved comprehensively wrong. Instead, the dictum of Warren Buffett, the “sage of Omaha”, that derivatives were financial weapons of mass destruction has been vindicated as one bank after another turns to its government for support.

Alan Greenspan

Andrew Hilton, director of the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation, a London-based think-tank, even argues that “you can make the case that banking is the only industry where there is too much innovation, not too little”.

Economic literature offers both passionate advocates and passionate opponents – which is understandable, given that the impact of financial innovation on social welfare is impossible to measure. Supporters say new instruments, technologies, institutions or markets lower transaction costs, make markets efficient, help solve social problems and contribute to economic growth.

Sceptics highlight obvious costs. Galbraith, in A Short History Of Financial Euphoria (source of the earlier quotation) emphasised the pervasive role of debt: “All financial innovation involves, in one form or another, the creation of debt secured in greater or lesser adequacy by real assets ... All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another, has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of payment.”

From barter to Fuggers’ fall

The double-edged nature of financial innovation has been apparent throughout the ages. Coins improve on barter because they economise on information and transaction costs. Paper money has the additional advantage of being less cumbersome than metal. Yet, as the Chinese found between the 11th and 14th centuries, a paper currency carries inflationary risks.

The most inventive bankers of the 16th century were the Genoese, who developed the equivalent of interest rate swaps in their lending to the Spanish government. They also devised a form of securitisation to use inflows of silver into Spain to finance the delivery of gold in Antwerp to pay Spanish troops in the Low Countries.

According to the historian Fernand Braudel, the Fuggers, pre-eminent bankers of the day in Germany, were profoundly suspicious of this apparent financial sleight of hand. So innovation provided the Genoese with a competitive weapon that helped displace the Fuggers as financiers to the Spanish treasury.

In both these cases innovation was providing a solution to a problem – another long-standing pattern. In China a scarcity of bronze led to the introduction of iron coinage, which was so inconvenient to transport that paper provided an attractive alternative. As for Europe, economic historians William Goetzmann and Geert Rouwenhorst argue that it was the financing requirements of the Crusades that encouraged Italian city-states to develop bond markets.

The cost of hostility to financial innovation may be high. Some historians speculate that a lack of financial development helps explain why the Chinese, who discovered the steelmaking process in the 11th century, did not produce the first industrial revolution.

His verdict captures very precisely the shuffling of asset-backed paper and the slicing and dicing of risk that marked the credit bubble. A huge debt-powered financial superstructure was built on top of the real economy to the point where high-octane finance became increasingly out of touch with productive enterprise.

Yet Galbraith was too sweeping. The financial system does many things. Among others, it provides a means of payment and exchange; it transfers the spare cash of savers to those with investment opportunities; it allows assets to be traded; and it provides insurance, whether in conventional contracts or in such instruments as swaps, options and other derivatives.

In all these areas, innovation has provided tangible benefits. Computerisation has improved the payments system, while technology such as automated teller machines has been a huge convenience to retail bank customers. The internet is transforming the availability of financial information and is lowering transaction costs in broking. Like many other innovations in retail finance, these advances do not involve the creation of debt.

Even in those areas that do, the outcome can still be beneficial. The development of the swaps market, for example, led to the new disciplines of treasury and risk management whereby the banks’ ability to swap fixed for floating interest rates and vice versa allowed them to insure against rate volatility. Currency swaps fulfilled a similar function. With the huge increase in market volatility stemming from deregulation and the abandoning of fixed exchange rates in the 1970s, this ability to hedge was a boon to banks. At the same time, computerised trading increased the efficiency of markets.

More often than not, innovation is satisfying genuine demands. Where the curse comes in is that many innovations are double-edged. Plastic cards, in so many ways a benefit to bank customers, may lead to over-­indebtedness, a growing social problem. Derivatives can be used to punt as well as to hedge. Credit default swaps were developed as insurance to protect investors against a failure to honour loans or bonds. Then came the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which revealed the extent to which people had underestimated the risk of their counterparties defaulting.

As the economist Burton Malkiel points out, a benign instrument designed to reduce risk turned into a monster that came close to destroying the entire financial system.

During the credit bubble, innovation was in one sense satisfying urgent demands all too well. Low-income families wanted mortgages and the banking system provided them. Investors wanted income in the period where even junk bonds offered a diminishing premium over the yield on government bonds, as excess savings in Asia and the petro-economies drove yields down. Yet in the euphoria, would-be home owners overstretched themselves, while banks dropped lending standards and fraudsters made hay.

Another recurring difficulty lies in assessing risk in innovations, which by definition have no lengthy record. By relying on inadequate historical data, credit rating agencies made asset-backed paper look better than it was. Risk was mispriced as banks provided investors with a toxic solution to the problem of yield compression, whereby the spread between government bond yields and low quality corporate bond yields became absurdly narrow.

The Crusades

In recent testimony to a congressional committee by James Simons of Renaissance Technologies, a hedge fund, said fanciful ratings of mortgage-backed securities facilitated the sale of “sows’ ears ... as silk purses”. As well as being mispriced, risk was mismanaged, because the underlying methodologies were fundamentally flawed.

The damage caused by bubbles can be greatly increased where innovation leads to information loss. Computerisation and the internet have improved the transparency of much of the financial system. Yet most of the asset-backed paper in the bubble was traded not on organised exchanges but on dealers’ screens and telephones. Instruments such as collateralised debt obligations helped make the system more opaque and more hostage to counterparty risk – the chance that the person on the other side of a transaction fails to deliver. That is because there was no centralised clearing and settlement in which all contracts were guaranteed.

A more fundamental explanation of why innovation can be counterproductive reflects a desire to escape the heavy hand of the state. Merton Miller, the late Nobel laureate, declared in a 1986 paper that “the major impulses to successful financial innovations have come from regulations and taxes”.

If that makes innovation sound subversive, regulatory arbitrage (locating a trading business in a place that has the laxest local laws) can nonetheless have economic and social benefits if directed at bad policy. The US in the 1970s, for example, responded to rising inflation by reviving a Depression-era measure called Regulation Q, which put a cap on deposit interest rates in the hope that by keeping banks’ cost of funds down, mortgage loans would be less expensive.

This was a classic example of attacking the symptoms of a disease, not the causes. It victimised small depositors, who were left with negative real rates of interest as inflation soared. The markets’ response was to invent negotiable certificates of deposit that escaped the constraint of Regulation Q because they were a paper instrument rather than a conventional deposit. European banks internationalised this, offering unregulated deposit rates to larger investors via the new eurodollar market, which helped rejuvenate the City of London in international finance.

That illustrates how markets can act as an escape valve and an adjustment mechanism. Yet the outcome is not always so benign. In the credit bubble, much of the impetus for driving loans off bank balance sheets into securitised form came from the risk-weighted capital regime introduced by the Basel committee of international bank regulators. By encouraging off-balance-sheet activity, the regime turned banking into a shorter-term, more transactional business.

This “originate and distribute” model – in which banks turned conventional loans into fancy securities and sold them on to a pool of investors – reduced the incentive for banks to monitor the creditworthiness of those to whom they lent. It was a case of churn out the loans and let the devil take the hindmost.

The latest Basel bank capital accords, which failed to avert financial crisis, have been criticised for:
●A poor focus on liquidity.
● Internal risk rating that allowed banks a high degree of discretion.
●Encouraging pro-cyclicality in the system.
● Giving an excessive role to credit rating agencies.

In addition, banks had an incentive to increase leverage – identified by Galbraith as a recurring cause of systemic damage – as they piled more liabilities on to a very slender capital base.

Measures of leverage based on Basel’s “tier one” capital ratio, which were the main focus of analyst attention, appeared less frightening than those based on conventional accounting, which revealed a more disturbing picture that went largely unobserved. The outcome was that banks ended up more highly leveraged than most hedge funds. Nothing illustrates better how the law of unintended consequences can contribute to financial blow-ups.

An endemic difficulty also arises with insurance, whether conventional contracts or hedging instruments such as credit default swaps. It relates to moral hazard, whereby the existence of a safety net causes people to adopt more risky behaviour. The result is that while insurance reduces the risk to the individual, it increases the risk to the overall system.

Perhaps the most dangerous examples of moral hazard are deposit insurance and the readiness of central banks to act as market makers or lenders of last resort. Owners of insured deposits have little incentive to monitor the creditworthiness of banks where they place their money. Large depositors exercise little discipline over banks they see as too big to fail. After the bubble, the Fed’s role as lender of last resort was extended to investment banks and to AIG, the insurer. So moral hazard is now more widely entrenched across the financial system.

Many of these drawbacks can be addressed to ensure that the blessings of innovation outweigh the curses. This is certainly true of the opacity that prevails in over-the-counter markets for securitised financial instruments, where little information about transactions is made public. Banks now see it is in their own interest to shift securitised business to exchange traded markets with centralised clearing houses backed by capital from trading members. This will introduce transparent pricing and volume information while reducing counterparty risk, which is what the regulators want.

But moral hazard can be addressed only by regulation, by penalising management and shareholders when banks are bailed out, or by allowing big banks to go bust. More regulation almost certainly has implications for the rate of innovation, which tends to go in waves. With politicians and watchdogs now preoccupied with the curses rather than the blessings of financial ingenuity, an innovation slowdown is probably inevitable. New and risky financial products may attract higher capital penalties under a revised Basel regime.

Yet there are those, such as Robert Shiller of Yale University, who argue that much of the damage could have been avoided if finance had been democratised and innovation used to manage individual home owners’ risks through, for example, house price futures markets that allow home owners to insure against falls in prices. Others say derivatives could help address problems such as water shortages, since futures markets can smooth imbalances of supply and demand.

Certainly the urge to innovate will not go away. For bankers, it offers huge advantages. In retail banking, patented inventions such as Merrill Lynch’s cash management account in the 1970s allowed what was then a securities house to make a big dent in the deposit base of the conventional banking system with a genuinely attractive product. At the wholesale end, producing a new financial mousetrap gives banks an entrée to corporate clients and institutions.

Yet the biggest spurs to innovation in future may be those identified by Miller. The cost of bailing out banks will put big pressure on public finances. It would be surprising if governments do not look to increase the tax take from companies to relieve some of that pressure. Companies will look to banks, lawyers and accountants to find novel instruments to mitigate the damage.

With an increased burden of regulation, financial innovation will probably provide new forms of regulatory arbitrage to circumvent the new rules, just as it did after the introduction of Basel One in the early 1990s.

Miller found, after predicting a lower rate of innovation back in 1986, that it is always dangerous to forecast any slowdown in what financial ingenuity can bring about. The backlash to today’s financial crisis will inevitably provide tasks for the next generation of regulatory arbitrageurs.

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Wedgwood goes into receivership

Reuters

Irish fine china and glassware group Waterford Wedgwood said on Monday a receiver had been appointed for the company, and some of its subsidiaries would shortly be placed into administration. Skip related content

Waterford Wedgwood, which announced in early December it would not make a coupon payment on some of its debt, said on Monday lenders would not renew a forbearance period and asked that its stock be suspended from trading on the Irish Stock Exchange.

"I am disappointed that certain of the Group's UK and Irish subsidiaries have had to go into administration and receivership, but we remain optimistic that ongoing discussions will result in a buyer being found for the businesses," Group Chief Executive David Sculley said in a statement.

Waterford Wedgwood, best known for its Waterford glass and Wedgwood and Royal Doulton dining services, also owns porcelain maker Rosenthal in Germany and has 8,000 employees in total, according to its website.

Waterford Wedgwood was formed in 1986 after the merger of the Ireland-based Waterford Glass Group and Wedgwood, a company founded in 1759 by Josiah Wedgwood, known as the Father of English Potters, according to the company.

Waterford Wedgwood was trying to modernise its product range just as the economic downturn in its main markets Britain and the United States hit sales, while the credit crisis made talks with lenders more difficult.

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高級洋食器：「ウェッジウッド」破綻　景気悪化で販売不振

　英国の高級洋食器「ウェッジウッド」などのブランドで知られる大手陶磁器メーカー、ウォーターフォード・ウェッジウッド（本社アイルランド）は５日、英国事業が近く管財人の管理下に入る見通しになったと発表、事実上経営破綻（はたん）した。

　金融危機をきっかけとした世界的な景気悪化で販売不振に陥ったのが原因。安価な陶器に顧客を奪われたことも経営の重しとなった。アイルランドの事業も行き詰まり、同国の証券取引所で株式取引が一時停止された。今後、管財人の下でスポンサー企業探しを急ぐ。

　ウォーターフォード・ウェッジウッドは主力市場である日米英で販売が落ち込み、経営不振が続いていた。昨年１２月に主要取引銀行が融資継続で支援したが、立て直せなかった。

　ウェッジウッドは１７５９年に英国で創業。中国製品との価格競争に追われ、主要な生産拠点を英国からインドネシアに移していた。（ロンドン共同）

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セキュリティー対策のプロ、自宅から情報流出

　情報セキュリティー対策の普及に取り組む独立行政法人「情報処理推進機構（IPA）」（東京都文京区）の男性職員が、自宅のパソコンでファイル交換ソフトを使用し、家族や友人の写真や自分のメールなどを流出させていたことが、５日わかった。

　これまで業務に関する非公開情報の流出は確認されていないが、同機構がさらに詳しく調べている。

　同機構によると、ソフトウエア開発を行う部署の３０歳代の事務職員が先月、自宅のパソコンでファイル交換ソフト「ウィニー」と「シェア」を使ったところ、ウイルスに感染。今月４日に相次いで情報流出を指摘するメールが同機構に届き、発覚した。

　同機構は経済産業省の所管で、国内で情報セキュリティー対策を推進する中心的な組織。ウェブサイトではファイル交換ソフトによる情報流出の予防を呼びかけているが、職員のファイル交換ソフト利用については注意喚起にとどめ、禁止はしていなかった。

　同機構は「ファイル交換ソフトの危険性を啓発しながら、このような事態になり申し訳ない。今後、職員の使用を禁止し、再発防止に努めたい」としている。

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雇用促進住宅への入居1546件　厚労省

　厚生労働省は5日、失業した非正規社員向けに臨時で開放している雇用促進住宅への入居決定件数が1546件になったと、民主党の厚生労働部門会議で明らかにした。2008年12月15―30日までの件数をまとめた。

　一方、08年12月中旬に187カ所のハローワークに設置した相談コーナーなどへの住居相談件数は08年12月26日までに1万749件に達しており、入居件数はさらに増える見込みだ。職業相談件数は6809件あったが、就職件数は81件だった。(22:01)

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11月の税収実績、7.2％減少　法人税が低迷

　財務省が5日発表した2008年11月の税収実績によると、一般会計税収は7兆1232億円と前年同月に比べ7.2％減少した。米金融危機に端を発する世界経済の悪化を受け、これまで日本経済をけん引してきた自動車業界なども含めて企業の業績が悪化。法人税収が11.6％減ったことが響いた。

　所得税や消費税は前年並みだった。ただガソリン価格の高騰で販売が低迷したことから、揮発油税は13％減少した。

　年度初めからの一般会計税収の累計は法人税の低迷が影響し、前年同期と比べて5.7％減の23兆3897億円にとどまった。財務省は昨年12月に、08年度の税収見積もりを当初予算から約7兆1000億円減額修正している。(19:23)

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日銀、09年度の成長率・物価見通しを「マイナス」へ

　日銀は2009年度の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の成長率について、従来のプラス0.6％の見通しを下方修正しマイナスとする方向だ。金融市場の混乱が響き景気の回復時期が一段と遠のくとみられるためだ。09年度の物価上昇率もマイナス予想となる見通し。21、22日の金融政策決定会合で昨年10月にまとめた「経済・物価情勢の展望（展望リポート）」の中間点検を行い、新たな予測値を示す。

　日銀は週内にも具体的な検討に入る。08年度の実質成長率も0.1％からマイナスに修正する方向で、2期連続のマイナス成長予想となる。

　国内経済は金融混乱や円高の影響で自動車などの輸出が急減し、生産活動が大きく落ち込んでいる。雇用情勢や消費の冷え込みも深刻。日銀が「09年度半ば」と想定していた景気の回復時期は後ずれする公算が大きく、マイナス成長は避けられないとみている。政府が昨年12月に公表した経済見通しは0％成長を予想しており、これより厳しい予測値となる。(19:06)

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「企業は内部留保の活用を」　雇用対策で官房長官

　河村建夫官房長官は5日午前の記者会見で、派遣社員の雇い止めなど深刻化する雇用問題の対応策として、企業側に内部留保を活用するよう求めた。河村長官は「企業はこういう事に備えて内部留保を持っている。こういうときに活用して乗り切っていくべきだ」と強調した。

　雇用問題が深刻化している一因として「派遣社員の受け入れを進めた企業の体制が問題を引き起こしている」とも言及。「企業の社会的責任がどうあるべきかという議論も生まれてきている」と語った。

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製造業の派遣労働、将来は禁止も　厚労相が示唆

　舛添要一厚生労働相は5日午前の閣議後の記者会見で、労働者派遣法に関連して「個人的には製造業にまで派遣労働を適用するのはいかがなものか」と述べ、将来的に製造業への派遣労働の見直しを検討する考えを示した。

　製造業への派遣は同法改正で2004年に解禁された。政府は国会で継続審議となっている労働者派遣法改正案に日雇い派遣の原則禁止を盛り込んでいるが、製造業に対する派遣の規制は含まれていない。

　厚労相は国会提出済みの改正案について、早期成立を目指す考えを示したうえで「各党の意見もいただいて、もっといい形で修正できるなら柔軟に修正すればいい」と指摘。製造業の派遣労働の禁止なども将来的な検討課題になるとの認識を示した。(13:46)

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賃貸保育所を支援　厚労省、都市部の待機児童減らす

　厚生労働省はマンションの一部などを借り上げて保育所を設置した場合に財政支援する制度を2009年にも創設する方針を固めた。土地を取得しにくい東京などの都市部で、賃貸物件を活用した保育所を増やす狙い。都市部では保育所への入所を希望しながら入れない「待機児童」が増加傾向にある。子育てしやすい環境を整備し、仕事と家庭の両立を目指す。

　現在は建物を取得した場合に取得費用の約半額を支援している。これを建物を所有せずに賃貸物件で保育所を始めるケースも支援対象とする。

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コメ作付面積、衛星で正確測定　農水省がシステム開発へ

　農林水産省は水田のコメの作付面積を衛星画像を活用して測定するシステムの開発に乗り出す。国内には約460万ヘクタールの耕地があるが、現在はその 2％程度を標本にして調査し、標本地区のデータを全国に当てはめて作付面積を算出している。コメの作付面積は誤差があるとの指摘もあり、正確に測れるように衛星画像活用によるデジタル化を進める。

　コメの作付面積は主食用米の生産調整（減反）の実施度合いなどを知る際に必要となる。現在は2500人程度が現地を訪れて調査しているが、来年度はまず8市町村をモデル地域として衛星画像で測定。衛星画像で効率的に測定できれば、現地調査から振り替える方針。

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08年の新車販売508万台、28年ぶり低水準　ピークの３分の２に

　自動車業界団体が5日まとめた2008年の国内新車総販売台数（速報値、軽自動車含む）は前年比5.1％減の508万2235台だった。4年連続のマイナスで1980年以来28年ぶりの低水準。ピークだった90年（778万台）の65％に減少した。ガソリン高などによる販売低迷に、昨年秋以降の世界同時不況による消費者心理の冷え込みが追い打ちをかけ、需要減に歯止めがかからない。

　日本自動車販売協会連合会（自販連）によると、登録車（排気量660cc超）は6.5％減の321万2342台。5年連続の減少で、石油危機直後の74 年以来34年ぶりの水準に落ち込んだ。ハイブリッド車など一部車種を除き、株安による「逆資産効果」などで消費者が買い控えた。(22:02)

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「ユニクロ」独り勝ち、売上高10.3％増　「ヒートテック」増産

　大手小売りが軒並み苦戦するなか、「ユニクロ」を展開するファーストリテイリングの独り勝ちが続いている。2008年12月の国内既存店売上高は前年同月比10.3％増。発熱保温肌着「ヒートテック」が多くの店で品切れとなり、売上高がもっと伸びていた可能性が高い。柳井正会長兼社長は5日、ヒートテックを「次の秋冬には増産する」と強気の計画を表明した。

　12月は客数が9.8％伸び、客単価は0.4％増えた。高級ダウンジャケットなど外着に加え、フリース素材の部屋着も好調だった。リーマンショック後の9―12月合計で既存店売上高は15.2％伸びており、同社の好調ぶりが際立っている。

　柳井社長は現在の消費動向について「欧米はめちゃくちゃ厳しい。日本もそうなるのに他の小売業はまだ本当に厳しいと思っていない」と述べた。ヒートテックの品切れについては「売り残すより良くない」と指摘。今秋冬物で2800万枚のうち100万枚程度だった海外販売を「もっと大々的に増やす」と強調した。(21:56)

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百貨店販売不振、伊勢丹が12月に売上高２ケタ減

　大手百貨店や衣料専門店の販売不振が深刻になってきた。5日まとまった2008年12月の売上高速報は、伊勢丹が前年同月比10.0％減、婦人服のしまむらも7.7％減と昨年9―11月より落ち込み幅が大きくなった。百貨店にとって12月は通常の月の1.4倍を売る書き入れ時だけに、業績の下方修正に追い込まれる企業も出てきそうだ。

　伊勢丹はこれまで比較的売り上げが好調だったが、12月は衣料品や高額品中心に大幅に落ち込み、過去のデータを調べられる03年1月以降で初の2ケタ減となった。高島屋も10.2％減と11月（5.7％減）から急速に悪化した。

　最も落ち込んだのは松坂屋（13.7％減）。名古屋店が15.9％減るなど3カ月連続の2ケタ減で、地元トヨタ自動車などの業績悪化の直撃を受けた。特に売り上げの3割超を占める外商の不振が響いた。

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こたつで暖まって、県営住宅入居の失業者に　ヒーテックが寄付

　こたつで暖まって――。家電製造・販売のヒーテック（東京・品川、小柴俊啓社長）は26日までに、神奈川県に同社製の小型こたつを200台、寄付した。社員寮などから退去した失業者向けに県などが用意した公営住宅で使ってもらう。

　寄付したのは、同社製で30センチ四方で持ち歩きができる「ミニこたつ」（定価1万2000円）。県が用意した住宅には備え付けの家具がないうえ、暖房も基本的にない。ミニこたつは天板が付いており、「テーブル代わりにもなる」（小柴社長）という。

　県営住宅の入居は26日から開始。県によると、同日、34人が入居し、1人ひとつミニこたつが用意された。県営住宅で使わなかったミニこたつは、県内で同様の支援をしている自治体に渡すという。

　ヒーテックは鎌倉市内に工場を設けている。小柴社長は、「寒いというだけでさみしくなることもある。ニュースを見て、何か側面支援ができればと思った」と話している。

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新潟県内、非正規労働者の失業者1818人　08年度下期

　新潟労働局は26日、2008年度下期（10月―09年3月）に失業したか失業することが決まっている県内の非正規労働者は1818人（19日時点）にのぼると発表した。11月末の前回調査から3倍以上に急増した。また1社が来春の学卒者5人の採用内定を取り消したことを明らかにした。

　非正規労働者を雇い止めにするのは33社。内訳は派遣社員が1209人、期間工などの契約社員が436人。

　新潟労働局によると、11月の調査以降に学卒者の内定を取り消したのは中越地方の製造業。県内ではこれまでに2社が計31人の内定を取り消しているが、これらは景気と無関係の各社固有の事情。景気悪化を理由にした県内の内定取り消しは今回が初めてだ。

　26日発表した県内の11月の有効求人倍率（季節調整値）は0.73倍で、前月から0.03ポイント低下した。14カ月連続のマイナス。有効求人数は前年同月比30.5％減の3万6331人。新規求人は全業種で減少した。

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渡辺元行革相、自民離党の公算　提言書を提出、執行部応じず

　自民党の渡辺喜美元行政改革担当相は5日、定額給付金の撤回や衆院の早期解散を柱とする7項目の麻生太郎首相（同党総裁）あて提言書を党執行部に提出した。渡辺氏はこの中で「提言が速やか、かつ真摯（しんし）に検討および審議されない場合、離党する」としている。党執行部は応じない考えのため、離党する公算が大きくなった。

　提言書の提出を受け首相は首相官邸で記者団に定額給付金について「やめる話をする気はない」と明言。「離党される、されないは個人の話なので答えようがない」と述べた。自民党の細田博之幹事長も記者会見で「方針は揺るがない」と強調した。

　渡辺氏は同日夕、国会内で記者会見し「私から賛同者を募ることは考えていないが、行動を共にしてきた人には伝えてある」などと述べるにとどめ、離党時期などは明らかにしなかった。(21:39)

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水産庁、マサバ保護で漁安定へ　漁獲制限や休漁で

　漁獲量が安定しない大衆魚マサバの安定供給と資源保護に水産庁が取り組んでいる。日本近海に広く分布するマサバは2007年に大量繁殖期を迎え、09年は将来産卵期を迎える親魚の量を増やすチャンス。同庁は休漁や漁獲制限で「親魚予備軍」を保護し、資源枯渇を防ぐ方針だが、需給バランスをにらみながらの調整はそう簡単ではなさそうだ。

　同庁によると、マサバは海洋条件、気象や環境の変化により、年ごとの資源量や漁獲量に極端な差が出る。そのため、漁獲量を調整しないと、大漁だった年の翌年から突然魚の量が激減するといったことが起こる。(17:03)

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大学の国際化、遅れ気味　外国人教員の採用進まず

　大学教員のうち外国人の割合は3.4％にとどまり、受け入れを増やすための施策を実施する予定もない大学が約6割に上ることが、文部科学省の調査で分かった。政府が2020年度までに日本への留学生を現在の2.5倍の30万人に増やす計画を立てるなど、大学にとって人材の国際化は大きな課題だが、現場の取り組みは遅れ気味だ。

　文科省がまとめた大学院活動状況調査によると、大学に勤務する外国人教員数は07年度に5763人。教員は全体では16万7000人余りおり、外国人が占める割合は3.4％。前年度は3.5％で、比率は伸び悩んでいる。(07:00)

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住友金属鉱山：非鉄製品を最大２４％減産　景気悪化受け

　住友金属鉱山は５日、世界的な景気悪化を受け、自動車用鋼板の原材料になる亜鉛などの非鉄金属製品について１～３月、今年度当初計画より５～２４％減産すると発表した。

　昨年４月に公表した０８年度下期（０８年１０月～０９年３月）の計画と比べ▽ステンレス製品の材料になるフェロニッケルが２４％減の８３００トン ▽精密機械の部品などに使われる電気ニッケルが１７％減の１万５０００トン▽亜鉛が１６％減の３万５７００トン－－に減らされる。電線に使う電気銅や銀なども減産する。

　原料の投入量を減らして生産量を落とす。亜鉛については、４月に予定していた播磨工場（兵庫県播磨町）の定期修繕を１カ月前倒しする。

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Russia kindles flame of hope in Bosnia refinery

6 hours 8 mins ago
Reuters Daria Sito-Sucic

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A flare at the top of a 50-metre high tower in the Balkans shows Russia building political capital in a notoriously fractured part of Europe. Skip related content
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The flame in late November marked the restart of operations in Brod, Bosnia's sole oil refinery which had been out of action since 2005 after being seriously damaged during the 1992-95 war.

It was financed by Russia as part of a broad plan to invest in energy in the countries of the former Yugoslavia.

Bosnia has reportedly received about $14 billion in aid since the end of the 1992-95 war, and Russia's 200 million euro ($280 million) investment in the refinery is a small gesture in the context of European energy security.

But in a country where around 40 percent of people are registered unemployed, new refinery owner Russian state oil company Zarubezhneft offers a much-needed boon: hope for neglected local industries, and the prospect of future revenues.

"The refinery means life for all of us here," said worker Momir Grabovac, standing near the shiny silver pumps in a reconstructed part of the refinery. Rusty containers in the background still bear the marks of wartime shelling.

"The town, which was dead, breathes again," Grabovac added, saying that of the 4,000 people with jobs in Bosanski Brod's population of 25,000, one in four had worked there.

Financed by a 350 million euro loan from the Russian Development Bank, the investments in the refinery as well as a motor oil plant in the town of Modrica and the Petrol distribution chain have lifted hopes Bosnia can trim its 8.8 billion marka (4.4 billion euro) foreign trade deficit in coming years.

"The decision was ... an economic and political decision," Vladimir Dmitriev, head of the Russian Development Bank, said of the financing at the reopening ceremony: "It demonstrates the geopolitical interest we want to achieve in the Balkans."

The bank's Supervisory Board chaired by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had approved the project as part of Russia's overall strategy for the region, he added.

"This will have significant implications for Bosnia's economy," said Mahir Hadziahmetovic, vice-president of Bosnia's Foreign Trade Chamber. "Bosnia, which was an exclusive importer of oil derivatives, will now have its own product."

The refinery will be able to cover all Bosnia's needs for oil, estimated at 1.5 million tonnes annually, and will be able to export once it starts producing 4.2 million tonnes at full capacity, he said.

TELLING TIMING

By relaunching the refinery just as Russia and Ukraine were making headlines in the West by embarking on a fourth winter of wrangles over gas supplies, Russia is keen to bolster its influence with its traditional allies, the Serbs.

The Serb Republic is an autonomous region that along with the Muslim-Croat federation makes up Bosnia but keeps close political and economic ties with its wartime supporter Serbia.

Russia was Serbia's main ally in its unsuccessful bid to block independence for its former province of Kosovo, which declared independence in February. It has also often supported separatist Bosnian Serbs in their moves criticised by the West.

The refinery relaunch also came just before Gazprom signed a package of energy deals with Serbia worth up to $2.5 billion, which officials said could turn the Balkan state into a regional energy hub.

Gazprom's oil arm, Gazprom Neft, took control of a 51 percent stake in oil monopoly NIS in exchange for a promise to include Serbia in countries to be transited by the South Stream pipeline, Russia's proposed alternative route for gas exports to bypass Ukraine.

Europe gets about a quarter of its gas from Russia, some 80 percent of which is pumped west via Ukraine.

"Russia needs the South Stream pipeline as an alternative route to its sole gas route through Ukraine," said Dejan Ostojic, the World Bank lead energy specialist for Europe and central Asia.

"This is a two-way street. Russia depends on Western customers as much as they depend on its gas supplies," Ostojic told Reuters.

Under the deal with Serbia, Gazprom bought a majority stake in NIS for 400 million euros, pledging to invest 550 million euros by 2012 to modernise local refineries.

In turn, Serbia won agreements to build a gas storage unit and a 400-km gas pipeline, part of Gazprom's 10 billion euro joint project with Italy's ENI to deliver Siberian gas to southern Europe under the Black Sea.

U.S. and EU officials have expressed concerns that the South Stream pipeline would undermine their attempts to diversify European gas supplies, as well as increasing Moscow's political and economic influence in the Balkans.

But Ostojic said Russia also wanted to diversify its gas routes to Europe.

"An energy problem for Russia is an energy problem for Europe," he said. "Nobody can deny that energy is tightly linked to geopolitical and geostrategic plans, but its economic logic comes first. Everybody wants to make profit."

WORTH THE RISKS?

Serbian energy expert Aleksandar Kovacevic said the Balkan country was taking a risk relying on Russia's pledge alone to include it in the South Stream project.

"If the whole energy policy is based on one large project, then it is a risk for the economy," Kovacevic said. "We don't know what is the government alternative in case this project fails."

Kovacevic said investment in regional refineries was a good move for Russia, as Balkan countries have become "enormous oil consumers" to power second-hand vehicles imported from Western Europe. Rail is still wrecked, river transport neglected.

The countries of the region need up to 10 million tonnes of oil annually, said Croatian oil expert Emir Ceric, adding that oil consumption has risen by between 2.5 and 3 percent a year.

Kovacevic said that economic policies based on high oil consumption were not sustainable on the long run: "If you buy an oil monopoly in a country, then it's a lucrative business," he said. "All refineries in the region at the moment could produce under full capacity and make profit.

"But it's a recipe for a long-term poverty."

In Bosnia, such words will not help pay the bills.

"Russia will draft an export strategy for the market of southeastern Europe," said Hadziahmetovic of the Foreign Trade Chamber. "Bosnia will have long-term benefits: it will reduce the foreign trade deficit and secure jobs for up to 1,700 people."