Abu Dhabi outlines plan to cut oil dependency

Abu Dhabi outlines plan to cut oil dependency

By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi

Published: January 7 2009 14:48 | Last updated: January 7 2009 14:48

Abu Dhabi, the oil-rich capital of the seven-state United Arab Emirates, is targeting an annual economic growth rate of 7 per cent over the next six years as it strives to diversify away from hydrocarbons.

From 2015 onwards economic growth will slow to an annual 6 per cent, and by 2030 the small but wealthy emirate expects to have quintupled gross domestic product, according to a government economic programme released on Wednesday.

Abu Dhabi, which holds 8 per cent of the world’s crude oil reserves, plans to invest its petroleum revenue into diversifying its economy, and hopes to boost non-oil trade to 50 per cent of total exports by 2028.

“The aim is for the emirate to take its place among the most successful economies of the world by 2030,” the Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030 report said. “Within overall growth and as part of efforts to diversify, Abu Dhabi will seek to foster non-oil [GDP growth] at a higher rate than that of the oil sector.”

Though oil prices have collapsed since the summer, Abu Dhabi has saved billions in an offshore sovereign wealth fund, which – despite likely large financial losses – holds at least $280bn, double the emirate’s estimated 2008 GDP, according to Moody’s, the credit agency.

“The government is working to diversify the domestic economy away from hydrocarbons by encouraging the development of the private sector and slimming the size of the public sector,” Moody’s noted in a report published in December.

Nevertheless, the most populous emirate in the UAE is feeling the pinch of declining oil revenue and the credit crunch.

If oil prices average about $55 a barrel this year the UAE’s oil revenues are expected to halve from last year to $48.8bn in 2009, according to research by National Bank of Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi controls some 95 per cent of the UAE’s oil reserves.

About $300bn of real estate and infrastructure projects are either underway or planned, but some experts say the credit crunch will slow progress on many developments.

The non-oil part of Abu Dhabi’s economy expanded about 8 per cent in real terms in 2007, but “this can be expected to slow this year and next given the adverse effects of the global financial crisis,” Moody’s said in December.

The rest of the UAE – led by the previously booming metropolis of Dubai – may be even harder hit by the credit crunch.

The UAE does not announce quarterly GDP growth figures, so if the country does enter two consecutive quarters of negative growth, it may not be declared.

To support economic growth and diversification, Abu Dhabi plans to “adopt both a fiscal policy that is responsive to economic cycles and a safe monetary and financial system with manageable levels of inflation,” the report stated.

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Dubai diversification leaves it well placed

By Abdulkhaleq Abdulla

Published: January 7 2009 17:58 | Last updated: January 7 2009 18:24

After more than a decade of double-digit economic growth, Dubai, the financial hub of the Arab world, is feeling the pains of the global financial plunge. The city had an easy ride when oil prices were sky-high, world markets were supportive and foreign investment was lubricating its wheel of fortune.

Now that credit is tight, the durability of the Dubai project is being put to the test.

In spite of initial denial, the impact of the global credit crunch is proving pervasive and has visibly altered confidence in the emirate. The once-booming real estate sector is shaky; the tourist business is losing momentum; and the financial sector and the stock market are racked by negative sentiment. Even the formidable retail sector and the vibrant import/export and re-export trades are not looking reassuring.

But if the economic tiger of the Arab Gulf region withstands this tough market environment, no one will doubt its sustainability. It will put to rest once and for all the ongoing speculation about a Dubai bubble.

The biggest blow to confidence in Dubai Inc came when the government disclosed the city’s surprisingly large debt portfolio. Everyone was aware of the existence of the debt, but even the most seasoned observers had not anticipated the $80bn figure, which constitutes almost 140 per cent of 2006 gross domestic product. For many, nationals and expatriates alike, the accumulated sovereign and institutional debt figure was daunting, too big to digest, and news of its disclosure came at the wrong time. This bad news compounded an already difficult economic and financial situation.

But while confidence is in short supply nearly everywhere, this does not warrant the hasty notion of the end of the “Dubai miracle” nor does it raise the question: “Is the party over?”

For one thing, diversification matters. Dubai is not simply about real estate. The city has successfully built one of the most diversified economies in the Gulf region. This is the cornerstone of the Dubai model which easily escapes outside observers.

Even if the strategic real estate sector comes to a sudden halt, which is far-fetched, this is not the end of Dubai.

The people of the emirate have gone through many daunting challenges over the past 50 years since the city’s emergence as a modern entrepôt. They vividly remember the tough times of the 1950s and 1980s. The region has seen three costly wars in the past three decades. Yet Dubai, time and again, has re-emerged stronger and bigger. Most likely it will do the same this time round too.

Not only are the fundamentals sound but the city has all the right attributes to look beyond a time of crisis. Dubai has a brand name and it has state-of-the-art infrastructure that will act as a platform for a renewed take-off. The city is packed with creative minds from all over the Arab world and nearby countries. Dubai is also full of attractive icons and architectural wonders.

But it is the emirate’s unquestionable adherence to free-market principles and its strong commitment to social liberties that have brought it to global prominence.

Hence, it is hard to understand why some underestimate Dubai and readily predict its demise. These are tough times but Dubai and the UAE are still among the safest places in the world to anchor. People are better-off here than in any other global capital.

Very soon it is going to be business as usual. The priority now is to inject a dose of confidence into Dubai Inc. First, the government needs to be more transparent about its holdings. Second, the city would be well advised to strengthen the role of institutions of accountability. Third, this is no time to pursue record-breaking landmark projects. Above all, Dubai needs to consolidate its federal affiliations and closely co-ordinate its next moves with Abu Dhabi, its bigger and wealthier sister.

The message from Dubai is clear: this is not party time but the lights are still on – they were visible from far away during the grand opening of the Atlantis resort complex. Dubai, to the dismay of hard-core pessimists, remains a land of opportunity for both the citizens and the expatriate community of the UAE.

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla is a professor of political science, Emirates University

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豊田市、新庁舎建設先送り　トヨタショックで税収減響く

2009年1月9日21時28分

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　愛知県豊田市の鈴木公平市長は９日の記者会見で、新年度から９７億円をかけて進める予定だった新庁舎建設事業について「厳しい財政状況を勘案し、着手を見送ることにした」と表明した。急速な景気の低迷で、来年度の大幅な税収減が確実なため、歳出の抑制を優先させた。

　事業は、同市の三つの本庁舎のうち、老朽化が進む東庁舎を今夏に取り壊して、跡地に地上８階地下２階の新庁舎を建てようという計画で、１１年１２月の完成を予定していた。

　しかし、トヨタ自動車の業績低迷などで、来年度の法人市民税は今年度当初の９割に当たる４００億円減が見込まれる。さらに、この日の会見で鈴木市長は、業績が悪化した企業から取り過ぎた市民税を新年度に返還する還付金の総額が、これまで予想した１５０億円よりも４０億円膨らみ、１９０億円になるとの見通しを示した。

　５日には、市議会（定数４７）で３０議席を占める自民党系の最大会派までも、新庁舎建設の見送りなどを求めた提言書を市に提出しており、事業の延期は避けられない状況になっていた。

　ただし、新庁舎建設に先立つ現東庁舎の解体については、まだ結論が出ていない。庁舎を解体した場合の仮庁舎として使うため、市は０７年１２月に移転した市役所近くの旧民間病院で、約２億９千万円をかけて、建物の改修やプレハブ庁舎の建設を進めており、新年度からは、年に７千万円を超える土地と建物の賃貸料が発生する。

　鈴木市長は「現庁舎を壊すのか壊さないのか。仮庁舎をどう使っていくのか。一番経費の安い方法を考えていきたい」と述べた。

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Lloyds in $350m US settlement

By Joanna Chung in New York and Peter Thal Larsen in London

Published: January 9 2009 23:43 | Last updated: January 10 2009 04:31

Lloyds TSB will pay $350m to settle US investigations after admitting it enabled Iranian and Sudanese clients to access the US banking system in violation of US sanctions, prosecutors said on Friday.

Lloyds said it falsified business records by altering wire transfer information to hide the identity of its clients, said Robert Morgenthau, Manhattan district attorney, who announced the deferred prosecution agreement on Friday.

The process made it appear that transactions originated at Lloyds in the UK rather than the sanctioned banks, according to Mr Morgenthau, who conducted the investigation with the US justice department.

Washington prohibits certain countries from accessing US financial institutions and the sanctions are enforced by the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.

The Lloyds agreement is the first from investigations into the actions of European banks in relation to US sanctions against Iran, Sudan, Libya and others.

Lloyds was one of three banks, including Barclays and Credit Suisse of Switzerland, which disclosed in public filings last year that they were co-operating with Mr Morgenthau and US federal prosecutors.

Mr Morgenthau said on Friday that the joint investigation into similar conduct by other banks was continuing.

Lloyds said last summer that it had made a provision to put aside funds to cover £180m related to historical payments being investigated by the US authorities.

The bank said on Friday night the provision was hedged into dollars at the time and covered Saturday’s announced settlement.

“We are committed to running our business with the highest levels of integrity and regulatory compliance across all of our operations and have undertaken a range of significant steps to further enhance our compliance programmes,” the bank said in a statement last night.

Lloyds said it was continuing discussions with the OFAC regarding the terms of the resolution of its investigation.

Mr Morgenthau said there was an illegal transfer of more than $300m on behalf of Iranian banks and their customers. While Lloyds voluntarily quit the Iranian business by 2004, the Sudanese activity, which resulted in the illegal transfer of over $20m, continued into 2007, after the beginning of the investigation.

Mr Morgenthau said the Iranian banks involved included Bank Melli, Bank Saderat and Bank Sepah; and the Sudanese lenders included National Bank of Khartoum.

The transfers were made to buy goods and services and to finance purchases from foreign vendors in dollars.

“For more than 12 years, Lloyds facilitated the anonymous movement of hundreds of millions of dollars from US-sanctioned nations through our financial system,” said acting assistant attorney general Matthew Friedrich.

“The department will continue to use criminal enforcement measures against the knowing and intentional evasion of US sanctions laws,” he said.

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Quest to create a new Sudan bread basket

By William Wallis, Javier Blas and Barney Jopson

Published: January 9 2009 23:18 | Last updated: January 9 2009 23:18

There are few regions in Africa as remote and undeveloped as southern Sudan. Unity state, where Philippe Heilberg, a US businessman, says he has secured a huge tract of arable land, is inaccessible even by south Sudan’s standards.

Apart from AK-47 assault rifles, it was deprived of most of the trappings of the modern world. Even a road network that has been under construction since 2005, when a peace agreement ended the long civil war between the predominately Muslim north and the Christian and animist south of the country, has yet to reach it.

But Unity state does border the White Nile and its flat, arable land could, with billions of dollars of investment in irrigation and roads, be transformed into a world-class bread basket.

As commodity prices spiked last year and food riots erupted across the developing world, Gulf countries poured hundreds of millions of dollars into securing land in the fertile Nile valley farther north to grow food crops for exporting home. Saudi Arabian investors, for example, acquired 25,000 hectares of land north of Khartoum for $95m (€70m, £63m) last year.

Mr Heilberg is convinced that demand for land is now gravitating south. Other experts say investors are scouting out opportunities in the south, albeit on a far less ambitious scale. That is despite imprecise land laws and the risk of a new civil war should the oil-rich south vote for independence in a planned referendum in 2011.

Mr Heilberg has experience in commodities markets on Wall Street and in Asia. To help him as he looks for opportunities in Africa, he has pulled together a board at Jarch Capital, his US-based investment vehicle, which includes Middle East, Africa and security experts with years of experience at the Pentagon, CIA, White House and state department.

He is of a resurgent class of western businessman drawn to the potential of Africa’s remaining frontiers, who have been energised by Asia’s, and in particular China’s, appetite for the continent’s natural resources.

Sudan experts familiar with his business strategy liken him to buccaneering capitalists such as Sweden’s late Adolph Lundin, who acquired mining and oil concessions in Congo and Sudan when civil wars were still raging and turned huge profits when they sold them on.

In both countries, however, legal wrangling has often prevented mineral concessions from becoming productive. Mr Heilberg has experience of this problem after being embroiled in a dispute with the south Sudan government over oil exploration rights also claimed by other companies.

Some experts on Sudan believe his 400,000 hectares will face a similar fate and that his ultimate strategy is to trade whatever claim he can sustain over the land to investors with a greater capacity to develop it. He says the land has great potential for biofuels and food crops and is looking for joint venture partners with the expertise to help him develop it.

He insists the law is less important to his deal than the clout he has bought into by associating the venture with a former warlord, Paulino Matip, whose family says it owns some of the land in Mayom county, in Unity state.

“I never understood why the oil industry could spend $1bn drilling dry holes but they do not want to take a single dollar in legal risks,” Mr Heilberg told the Financial Times by phone from New York.

Mr Matip fought with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement against the northern army before gaining notoriety during one of the bloodiest episodes in Sudan’s civil war, when he switched sides to form his own militia, with backing from parts of his Nuer tribe and the Khartoum regime.

“I am sure Paulino has killed many, but I am sure he did it in protection of his people,” Mr Heilberg says in his defence.

Following the 2005 peace agreement, his forces were appeased when he was brought in as deputy commander in the army of the autonomous south.

Mr Matip’s son Gabriel, who controls the company in which Jarch has bought a majority stake, told the Financial Times that he had negotiated with tribal leaders to secure access to more land.

He said the company also had written agreement for the agricultural development of the land, and other land it may secure in the south of the country, from the ministry of agriculture and forestry in south Sudan.

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US investor buys Sudanese warlord’s land

By Javier Blas and William Wallis in London

Published: January 9 2009 23:18 | Last updated: January 9 2009 23:18

A US businessman backed by former CIA and state department officials says he has secured a vast tract of fertile land in south Sudan from the family of a notorious warlord, in post-colonial Africa’s biggest private land deal.

Philippe Heilberg, a former Wall Street banker and chairman of New York-based Jarch Capital, told the Financial Times he had gained leasehold rights to 400,000 hectares of land – an area the size of Dubai – by taking a majority stake in a company controlled by the son of Paulino Matip.

Mr Matip fought on both sides in Sudan’s lengthy civil war but became deputy commander of the army in the autonomous southern region after a 2005 peace agreement.

The deal, between Mr Heilberg’s affiliate company in the Virgin Islands and Gabriel Matip, is a striking example of how the recent spike in global commodity food prices has encouraged foreign investors and governments to scramble for control of arable land in Africa, even in its remotest parts.

In contrast to land deals between foreign investors and governments, Mr Heilberg is gambling on a warlord’s continuing control of a region where his militia operated in the civil war between Khartoum and south Sudan.

“You have to go to the guns, this is Africa,” Mr Heilberg said by phone from New York. He refused to disclose how much he had paid for the lease.

Jarch Management Group is linked to Jarch Capital, a US investment company that counts on its board former US state department and intelligence officials, including Joseph Wilson, a former ambassador and expert on Africa, who acts as vice-chairman; and Gwyneth Todd, who was an adviser on Middle Eastern and North African affairs at the Pentagon and under former president Bill Clinton at the White House.

Laws on land ownership in south Sudan remain vague, and have yet to be clarified in a planned land act. For this reason, some foreign experts on Sudan as well as officials in the regional government, speaking on condition of anonymity, doubted Mr Heilberg could assert legal rights over such a vast tract of land. The deal is second only in size to the recent lease of 1.3m hectares by South Korea’s Daewoo from the government of Madagascar.

Mr Heilberg is unconcerned. He believes that several African states, Sudan included, but possibly also Nigeria, Ethiopia and Somalia, are likely to break apart in the next few years, and that the political and legal risks he is taking will be amply rewarded.

“If you bet right on the shifting of sovereignty then you are on the ground floor. I am constantly looking at the map and looking if there is any value,” he said, adding that he was also in contact with rebels in Sudan’s western region of Darfur, dissidents in Ethiopia and the government of the breakaway state of Somaliland, among others.

The company was embroiled in a dispute with the south Sudan government over its claims to exploration rights for oil.

Mr Heilberg said Jarch had no expertise in agricultural development but would be seeking joint venture partners to cultivate the land, which is in one of the remotest parts of Sudan, in a region bordering the Nile river but with no tarred roads.

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Criticism of Israel’s conduct mounts

By Andrew England in Jerusalem and Vita Bekker in Tel Aviv

Published: January 10 2009 05:06 | Last updated: January 10 2009 05:06

As Israel’s offensive in Gaza enters its third week, the Jewish state appears to be rapidly losing the public relations war abroad as criticism from United Nations officials and humanitarian agencies has mounted amid the constant stream of pictures of dead and wounded women and children.

Israeli strikes on UN convoys and schools sheltering hundreds of Palestinians who fled their homes, as well allegations that Israeli troops prevented medical workers from retrieving dead and injured Palestinians, have increasingly called into question Israel’s conduct of the war.

A UN agency added to the increasing negative news flow with a report that cited witness testimony alleging that Israeli troops evacuated Palestinian civilians to a house in Gaza City and then repeatedly shelled the building 24 hours later, killing some 30 people inside.

And from the outset, Israel has been under fire for preventing foreign journalists from entering the strip – restrictions that were in place weeks before the bombardment started.

However, a team of reporters from the Al-Jazeera satellite channel were already in Gaza and Arab television stations have broadcast a constant stream of images of death and destruction that have been picked up across the world. International news agencies also have local staff on the ground.

Al-Jazeera reported that a building used by journalists working in the strip, including Turkish and Chinese outlets, was hit by Israeli fire on Friday.

“There’s definitely been a step up for the Israelis in their attempt to control the information flow. But if you actually look at the news, information and pictures emerging from Gaza, there’s been tons of it and it’s all been hugely detrimental to the Israeli cause,” said Charlie Beckett, a media specialist at the London School of Economics. “The fact that the Israelis seem to be trying to blockade the media only hurts their argument that they are somehow more democratic, more open and not terrorists.”

Israel officials have insisted they regret civilian deaths and have accused Hamas of using civilians as human shields. They have also sought to highlight the threat posed by rockets fired by Palestinian militants into southern Israel – which have killed three Israelis since the offensive started – saying some 950,000 Israelis are vulnerable to attacks.

But analysts say the scale of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza overwhelms the impact.

Anthony Cordesman, at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says Israel has failed to talk to the world “in ways that the outside world finds relevant.”

“We are now two weeks into the war and nobody has a clear idea what the Israelis are attempting to accomplish,” he says. “They have not communicated the ways in which they are attempting to reduce civilian casualties; it is not clear that they have provided proper guidance to the troops in the field [and] they have not managed the issue of humanitarian relief with any effectiveness.”

Still, an Israeli newspaper poll on Friday showed that 91 per cent of Israeli Jews were still in favour of the war, and Nachum Barnea, an Israeli newspaper columnist, says it is the mood of the domestic constituency which is the main concern for officials.

He believes Israel made a mistake in preventing journalists entering Gaza before the conflict, but adds that he is ambivalent towards restrictions preventing reporters from entering the strip while the fighting rages. He was embedded with Israeli troops during the 2006 war with Hizbollah in Lebanon, which turned out to be another PR disaster.

“In 2006 it became a real comedy because every commander of a battalion used his cell phone to call a reporter and to tell him his battalion was discriminated against or didn’t get the air protection he wanted,” says. “I’m almost sure it caused a lot of damage to the operation.”

The Israeli military did allow a pool of three Israel reporters and one foreign correspondent to embed for a day with troops this week. But it has not given clear responses to many of the recent allegations.

It also became embroiled in a controversy after Israeli mortars struck outside a UN-run school used as a shelter, killing at least 40 people. The Israeli army insisted militants fired at Israeli troops from within the compound – claims rejected by UN officials. Shortly after the attack, the military emailed journalists a link to a video that purported to show assailants firing from a school, but that footage was dated October 2007.

Hamas, meanwhile, has managed to issue sporadic statements of defiance. Communicating its survival and willingness to fight on would seem at the core of its public relations strategy. But for Israel losing the propaganda war could be costly.

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Arms find in probe of suspected plot against Turkish government

By Delphine Strauss in Ankara

Published: January 10 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 10 2009 02:00

The discovery of grenades and bullets buried at a beauty spot outside Ankara gave a new twist yesterday to a widening investigation into a network suspected of plotting to topple Turkey's government.

Tensions between the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) and its secularist opponents are at fever pitch after the latest detentions in a probe of ultranationalists, the so-called Ergenekon group.

On Wednesday, police searched houses and held more than 30 people, including senior retired generals and serving army officers, in dawn raids ordered as part of an investigation that began with a similar weapons find in June 2007.

Turkish media said police were led to the weapons cache by maps found when they searched the home of Ibrahim Sahin, former police chief, during Wednesday's raids.

Television showed police digging in the frozen ground at picnic spots in and around Ankara, after unearthing grenades and bullets in the woods near Golbasi lake, a popular recreation area just outside the capital.

The case has split Turkey. Liberals hailed it as a breakthrough in uncovering some of the most notorious killings of past decades, but others consider it thinly-veiled retaliation against government opponents, a response to last year's constitutional court ruling against the AKP for "anti-secular activities".

Eighty six people, many known for strong nationalist views and opposition to the religious-minded AKP, are already on trial accused of belonging to a clandestine organisation, which planned bombings and assassinations to provoke a military coup.

The latest detentions are a provocation to the powerful military, judiciary and secularist politicians. General Ilker Basbug, head of the armed forces, raised concerns over the detentions in an unscheduled meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prime minister, on Thursday, after a six-hour discussion among commanders.

"The risk of a reaction by the military is growing as the Ergenekon probe is turning into a test of strength between the AKP and secularist circles," said Wolfango Piccoli, analyst at Eurasia group.

The AKP can ill-afford an eruption of political hostilities, with the economic news worsening by the day, public emotions running high over Gaza, and the March local elections fast approaching.

The tensions hit markets on Thursday, and Tusiad, the main business lobby, has urged the investigators to continue with care for suspects' legal rights.

A senior court of appeal - whose honorary chairman had his property searched - met without releasing a statement. Opposition politicians held protests on the day of the latest detentions.

Commentators said the retired generals - Tuncer Kilinc, Kemal Yavuz and Erdal Sener - had all been involved in military intervention to force the religious Welfare party out of office in the 1990s.

Also detained was Kemal Guruz, a former chairman of the higher education board who supports the ban on wearing the Muslim headscarf in universities.

The new discovery of weapons may help to persuade sceptics there is substance behind the latest detentions. "When I saw the weapons, I said finally, finally, it's going somewhere," said Can Dundar, a journalist and filmmaker.

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Long view: Signposts on the road to rock bottom

By John Authers

Published: January 9 2009 18:51 | Last updated: January 9 2009 18:51

A year ago, anyone who had studied financial history should have been prepared for trouble, even if history had few precedents for the disaster that ensued.

Now, the precedents are ambiguous. Some indicators that flashed trouble before the crisis now suggest it could even be time to buy. Others are contradictory. Even so, history may be our guide, so it is worth looking at the precedents.

There are two broad ways to gauge the market’s future from the past. One focuses on valuations or the fundamentals – metrics that have showed that stocks are particularly over or undervalued over time. The other focuses on price patterns, known as chartism or technical analysis.

On valuation, history’s most reliable long-term metrics have been q, which stands for the ratio of a company’s market value to the total replacement value of its assets, and the cyclical price/earnings ratio, where share prices are compared with an average of corporate earnings for the previous 10 years.

Both measures proved useful a year ago by showing that equities were unequivocally expensive compared with long-run norms. Now, the story is more complicated.

According to Andrew Smithers of Smithers & Co, the cyclically adjusted p/e suggested the S&P 500 was 4.1 per cent overvalued on December 31 (and had been undervalued, for the first time in almost two decades, in November). On q, statistical anomalies in the data are enough to make the difference between whether the market is over or undervalued.

He says a fair conclusion is that the US market is no longer clearly overvalued, but is not yet cheap.

If stocks are fairly valued, it makes sense to buy them – if you can hold on to them. The problem is that historically both measures have needed to be very cheap before big bear markets end and investors start making money again. Both measures were about 60 per cent cheaper than their long-term averages at the point that markets took off in 1932 and in 1982 after long slumps, for example.

Turning to charts, several well-known chartists have declared that the market hit bottom in November last year. Further, extreme sell-offs in history have often been followed by explosive rallies, suggesting an opportunity.

Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital, who admits to having been a “big bad bull” last year, suggests there is reason to believe another such rally could come along soon.

Since 1900 there have been six “panics” in US stocks, when markets have fallen 40 per cent or more – before the current episode. In the cases of 1903, 1907, 1919 and 1973, stocks had fully recovered within 18 months of the “panic” low.

The problem is how to account for the two panics that did not see such a rebound – the Depression panics of 1929 and 1937. The latter saw a 75 per cent recovery of its losses within a year of the low. Losses after the former were not fully recouped for 20 years.

But if – a big if – we are not in for a Depression, the lesson seems to be that sell-offs so extreme usually lead to a quick recovery.

Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research offers another historical analysis. Looking at the “real value” of the S&P 500 index, which involves reinvesting dividends but deflating it each year for the amount of inflation, there has been a very steady upward trend, of an average of 6.75 per cent, since 1870. With core inflation of about 1 per cent, and a 3 per cent dividend yield, that implies a 4.75 per cent rise for the S&P this year.

Of course, the market does not replicate its trend growth each year. Instead it has a tendency to reach a bottom, or maximum depth below the trend line, every 30 years. It last did so in the early 1980s, meaning it is about due to hit bottom. It entered the year 32 per cent below trend, having been 37 per cent below trend in November – almost exactly where it reached at its trough in 1974. From this point, the real total return ground forward at a below trend but tolerable 3 per cent per year until 1982 but there were explosive rallies along the way, with a 52 per cent rise over 21 months immediately after its 1974 trough. Again the important proviso is that recovery on this metric took a lot longer in the 1930s. If investors continue to fear a repeat of the 1930s scenario of Depression followed by war, then further steep declines are quite possible. If not, rallies are more probable.

This may have investors worriedly looking for the moment stocks hit rock bottom. This is, as these contradictory lessons suggest, very difficult.

But maybe it is not a problem. Richard Bernstein of Merrill Lynch analysed the 10 worst market troughs of the past 50 years, and compared the results of buying six months before the bottom and six months after. Piling in six months after the bottom proved to be the better strategy in seven cases when the money was held in cash in the interim 12 months, and in eight cases when the money was held in long-term Treasury bonds.

So you may not lose much by the cowardly approach of waiting to see whether the market has really turned, and then piling in with everyone else. That, at least, is reassuring.

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In bondage to the bond markets

Published: January 10 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 10 2009 02:00

The global economy continues its swan dive. In the three months to November, UK industrial production fell by 2.7 per cent. US unemployment surged by 524,000 in December alone and purchasing managers' indices suggest the quagmire is deepening in Asia. The only growing sector is government. But questions are now being raised about whether states can finance their widening deficits.

The flow of public spending around the world is growing while tax revenues are thinning. Investors are lending enormous volumes to states to make up the difference. Governments can borrow cheaply, but will still need to service the debt. It is not clear in every case how they will afford to do so: around the world, lots of taxable productive capacity is being destroyed.

This week, investors chose not to take up all the debt on offer at a German Bund auction, leaving nearly €2bn of debt unsold. The price of insuring government debt is rising: it costs more to insure against US and UK government default with a credit default swap than against the collapse of McDonald's, the fast-food chain.

Investors, however, have not sated their appetite for debt backed by strong governments. The failed auction was a quirk of the German bond sale process. Rather than holding a reverse auction for debts, it fixes a price. If debt is left unsold, it will try again on another day. It was certainly not good news, but is not a reason to panic. France and Spain held auctions after the Germans and these passed without incident, while there was strong demand for Commerzbank's German-state-backed debt. Lenders want large quantities of safe, liquid assets: governments are able to borrow at unsustainably cheap rates.

Investors should not read too much into high CDS prices for most sovereign bonds. States with central banks will not default. They can always service debts by printing money. This would have potent inflationary consequences - and might become a policy option to reflate stagnant economies. But the ability to start the printing presses makes the price of illiquid CDSs a nonsensical measure of the soundness of countries.

Governments, however, will need to sell ever more bonds in the coming year. The US alone looks set to borrow more than $2,000bn. Yields will rise and some weaker countries are already being eyed suspiciously. The European Central Bank must have a plan for what it would do if any of the eurozone countries were to run into trouble. The cost of Greece's borrowing is significantly higher than that of its peers.

To calm investors' nerves, finance ministers must make plain how they intend to keep paying creditors without resorting to debasing their currencies. Those who have not already credibly done so are living on borrowed time.

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BP signs peace deal with Russian partners

By Ed Crooks, Energy Editor

Published: January 9 2009 22:46 | Last updated: January 9 2009 22:46

BP and its Russian partners in the TNK-BP joint venture have signed the peace deal they agreed in principle in 2008, weakening the British group’s grip on the company.

The deal, which followed months of conflict over the venture, leaves two of the Russian shareholders in powerful executive roles.

It will also lead to the appointment of a new chief executive, who must be approved by the Russian tycoons who own 50 per cent of TNK-BP.

TNK-BP staff and former BP executives have said the influence of the Russian shareholders has been growing in recent months, with many western managers leaving the company.

The Alfa-Access-Renova group, through which the Russian tycoons Mikhail Fridman, German Khan, Len Blavatnik and Viktor Vekselberg hold their stake in TNK-BP, argues that the management changes will make the venture stronger.

AAR said on Friday: “We are pleased that the changes we have been advocating have now been agreed. As a result, the company’s management can now fully focus on the successful development of TNK-BP as a leading independent oil company in the interests of all stakeholders.”

The joint venture is a very important business for BP, accounting for a quarter of its production, although a smaller proportion of its profits because of the heavy taxes on Russian oil.

Under the deal, which was agreed after sustained legal and regulatory pressure on the venture, the board of TNK-BP Management, which provides the senior executive team for the group, will shrink from 13 members to six.

Mr Khan and Mr Vekselberg, who served on the previous team under Bob Dudley, the BP-backed chief executive who stepped down last month, are expected to retain their positions.

Denis Morozov, 35, the former chief executive of Norilsk Nickel, is expected to be confirmed as the new chief executive in the next few weeks. He was described by Mr Vekselberg as having a “very high” chance of being appointed.

The new board for the TNK-BP group is expected to be announced at the same time. Two directors are set to leave, one from the BP side and one from the AAR side, to be replaced by three “independent” directors.

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Iran seen to seek 10 percent share in Azeri gas field phase

1 hour 21 mins ago
Reuters

* Print Story

Iran has submitted a $1.7 billion (1.1 billion pounds) proposal for developing a part of the second phase of neighbouring Azerbaijan's enormous Shakh-Deniz offshore gas deposit, a semi-official news agency reported on Saturday.

"We are interested in having at least a 10 percent share of the development of the second phase of this field," Hossein Noghrehkar-Shirazi, deputy oil minister for international affairs, told Mehr News Agency.

"Iran has given a $1.7 billion proposal to Azeri officials for the development of a part of the second phase of the Shakh-Deniz field," he was quoted as saying.

Azerbaijan hosts some of the world's biggest oil and gas developments. It sells output to the domestic market, and neighbouring Georgia and Turkey via the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipeline.

Its largest gas field, Shakh-Deniz in the Caspian Sea, is co-led by BP and StatoilHydro . Azeri state energy company Socar, Russia's LUKOIL , France's Total and Iranian and Turkish firms are also partners in developing it.

Iran sits atop the world's second-largest natural gas reserves after Russia, but international sanctions imposed on Tehran over its disputed nuclear activities and other issues have slowed development of its own gas exports.

Noghrehkar-Shirazi said Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, also had a 10 percent share in developing the first phase of Shakh-Deniz.

The second, $10-billion-phase has been estimated to come on stream between 2011 and 2012, but Noghrehkar-Shirazi suggested he expected it would happen later.

"The second phase of the Shakh-Deniz field will go on stream in 2013 and 2014 and currently a lot of countries have asked to buy gas from the Shakh-Deniz consortium and Iran has been placed in the list of those who are interested," he said.

Ex-Soviet Azerbaijan increased its gas output in the first 11 months of 2008 by 42.7 percent to 20.91 billion cubic metres (bcm), the government said last month.

Iran has long sought to promote itself as a transit route for oil and gas from central Asian states but the United States, which has not had diplomatic ties with Tehran since 1980, has been pushing for alternative export channels.

Last winter, Iran suffered natural gas shortages when Turkmenistan halted gas exports of up to 23 million cubic metres a day to the Islamic Republic, citing technical problems. Turkmen exports to Iran resumed in April.

---------------------------
Citigroup, Morgan Stanley talk about merging units

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By MADLEN READ, AP Business Writer Madlen Read, Ap Business Writer – Fri Jan 9, 11:30 pm ET
In this Sept. 28, 2007 file photo, former Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin AP – In this Sept. 28, 2007 file photo, former Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin listens during a panel discussion, …

* Citigroup Slideshow: Citigroup

Related Quotes Symbol Price Change
C 6.75 -0.41
GS 83.92 -1.49
MS 19.06 +0.24

NEW YORK – Officials at the embattled banks Citigroup and Morgan Stanley will negotiate over the weekend about possibly combining their wealth management businesses, a deal mostly aimed at bolstering Citi with much-needed cash.

The deal to merge Citi's Smith Barney with Morgan Stanley's comparable division was confirmed late Friday by a person familiar with the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.

The negotiations come as investors digested news that Robert Rubin, a senior adviser to Citi who has drawn heavy criticism, would resign from the bank. The person said it was Rubin's decision to leave Citigroup and that "there was no inside pressure," or government pressure.

Citi's shares sank nearly 6 percent on Friday.

Even before the economy started tanking, many shareholders had complained that Citigroup was too huge, and lagging its peers. Calls for a breakup have been going on for years, and have grown louder since the federal government has had to pump billions into the ailing company.

The New York-based bank late last year signed an agreement with the federal government to receive an additional $20 billion on top of the initial $25 billion it received.

Citigroup was hit particularly hard by the housing market downturn because the bank was heavily invested in mortgages and other loans. The company has reported four straight quarters of losses, and is expected to post yet another loss when it releases fourth-quarter results later this month.

If Morgan Stanley ends up buying Smith Barney, it "sounds like the beginning of a liquidation," said Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics.

"Citi is under enormous pressure to downsize right now," added Bert Ely, a banking industry consultant in Alexandria, Va. After Citigroup received an extra dose of government funding, he said, "my sense is that the pressure has been increasing to accelerate the process."

In addition to the $45 billion infusion from the Treasury Department, which received preferred shares as part of the rescue, Citi also has received a government backstop for up to $306 billion in loans and securities backed by mortgages.

As Citigroup's stock plunged over the past year — it fell to $3.77 on Nov. 21 — Rubin, a former Treasury secretary, came under fire from critics who believed he should have had a more active role in preventing the bank's problems.

"Robert Rubin, in my opinion, spent a decade neglecting his duties as a director, just judging by their performance," Whalen said.

Rubin, 70, will continue to serve as a board director until his term expires at the next annual meeting in the spring, Citigroup said.

Rubin was U.S. Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton. For several decades before that, he worked at the Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc. But his experience didn't keep Citigroup from taking on a massive amount of risk that relied on the housing market staying afloat.

Over the past six months, Rubin has slowly pared back his role at Citigroup, after serving as chairman for about a month following the ouster of former chairman and CEO Charles Prince in November 2007. Win Bischoff became Citi's chairman in December 2007, and investment banking head Vikram Pandit became CEO.

In August 2008, Rubin gave up his title as head of the board's executive committee, and became a "senior counselor" instead.

Leaving Citigroup, where he has worked for nearly 10 years, "is not a decision that I have come to lightly," Rubin said in a letter released by the bank. "But as I enter my 70s and with all that is now in place at Citi, I believe the time has come for me to make these changes."

He also wrote: "My great regret is that I and so many of us who have been involved in this industry for so long did not recognize the serious possibility of the extreme circumstances that the financial system faces today."

Citigroup shares fell 41 cents, or 5.7 percent, to $6.75. Morgan Stanley shares were up 24 cents to $19.06.

----------------------------
EU redoubles efforts to restore flow of gas

By Nikki Tait in Brussels, Roman Olearchyk in Kiev and,Isabel Gorst in Moscow

Published: January 10 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 10 2009 02:00

The European Union resumed efforts last night to secure the restoration of Russian gas shipments via Ukraine to the EU after hopes of an early settlement to the crisis faded, leaving millions of consumers facing a fifth day of shortages.

With the winter turning bitterly cold across much of Europe, the EU failed to secure backing from Moscow and Kiev for the deployment of international observers to monitor the pipeline. While both Ukraine and Russia have agreed to the monitoring plan in principle, they remained divided over details including the role of Russian monitors in Ukraine and possible Ukrainian monitors in Russia.

The impasse left the pipelines closed since Russia will not resume shipments because it says it cannot trust Ukraine not to divert the westbound gas for its own use. Kiev denies the charges, accusing Moscow of deliberately stopping the gas so as to show Ukraine in a bad light in Europe. Russia accounts for about a quarter of the EU's gas, the bulk of it shipped through Ukraine.

Each side blames the other for escalating a crisis that began after the breakdown of talks over the supply of gas from Russia to Ukraine.

Mirek Topolanek, the Czech prime minister, whose country holds the EU presidency, flew to Kiev yesterday for talks with Ukrainian officials. He was due to continue to Moscow today in the hope of securing a deal before the gas shortages, which are already affecting 18 countries, worsen as reserves decline.

Industry officials estimate that even when the taps are turned on it would take about three days for new gas to reach the EU. Yesterday, the first team of about 20 EU observers, made up of senior EU officials and experts from large gas companies, also arrived in Ukraine and started to work at the central gas dispatching point in Kiev, where they will monitor the flows on screens.

"This means that all the conditions agreed between the leaders of the EU, Russia and Ukraine are in place for the immediate restart of gas supplies from Russia that are destined for European customer," said the European Commission.

Dmitri Medvedev, the Russian president, said: "Of course we are interested that gas transit should be resumed immediately . . . but this can only be done after signing of the documents . . . We will never stop theft by any other means."

Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly, added there was no progress in talks with Ukraine about the underlying problem: the new Russia-Ukraine gas contract.

Hryhoriy Nemyria, Ukr-aine's deputy prime minister, insisted that Kiev was doing its utmost to solve the dispute. "The Ukrainian side has shown transparency, and openness," he said.

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Rice in ‘pre-Nato’ pact with Georgia

By Isabel Gorst in Moscow

Published: January 10 2009 05:24 | Last updated: January 10 2009 05:24

The US risked irking Russia by signing a strategic partnership charter with Georgia on Friday intended to act as a catalyst for its strongest ally in the South Caucasus to gain entry to Nato.

The charter, signed in Washington by Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state and her Georgian counterpart Grigol Vashadze, calls for cooperation in the areas of defense, economy culture and democratic reform.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Russia and Georgia close to deal - Dec-18
French president ‘soothed’ Putin’s rage - Nov-14
Donors find $4.5bn for Georgia - Oct-23
Russian soldiers killed in Ingushetia - Oct-19
UN court rules in favour of Georgia - Oct-15
Georgia and Russia begin talks - Oct-14

It is similar to a pact sealed by the US last month with Ukraine, another former Soviet country seeking Nato membership.

A senior US state department official said the charter would engage Georgia in political and security reforms it needs to undertake before gaining Nato membership.

The US will help Georgia develop a military doctrine and rebuild and reform its armed forces which sustained heavy losses during the conflict with Russia last summer.

At the same time the US will encourage Georgia to promote democracy by reforming its judiciary, diffusing power away from the presidency and developing political parties.

Russia opposes the expansion of Nato into its sphere of influence and resents close ties between the US and Georgia, particularly in the military sphere.

The US official said the state department had been in touch with the Kremlin before finalizing the charter to minimize the risk of acrimony.

“Pretty much anything the US does in Georgia annoys Russia,” he said.

A Georgian opposition leader this week accused Mikheil Saakashvili, the president of Georgia, of inviting the US to site a military base in the country.

The US state department dismissed the claim as “reckless and ridiculous.”

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経団連副会長にトヨタ渡辺社長ら　５月就任へ調整

　日本経団連は9日、トヨタ自動車の渡辺捷昭社長（66）、新日本製鉄の宗岡正二社長（62）を副会長に充てる方向で最終調整に入った。トヨタの張富士夫会長（71）と新日鉄の三村明夫会長（68）の退任に伴う人事で、さらにもう1人副会長を増やす方向で調整している。今月末にも内定し、5月に就任する。 2期4年の最後の年を迎える御手洗会長を副会長16人で支える体制となるとみられる。

　経団連の副会長は現在15人。ただ実体経済の低迷が長引く恐れがあり、5月に副会長の枠を18人に増やす。金融危機などに弾力的な対応ができる体制とする狙いだ。今年はまず1人増やし、経団連の助言機関である評議員会の15人の副議長から選出する公算が大きい。残り2人は空席とする。(08:47)

----------------------------
米証券大手が日本進出　世界70取引所の商品扱う

　米証券大手のインタラクティブ・ブローカーズは近く日本での営業を始める。注文を電子的に自動処理することで比較的安い手数料を実現。同社を通じ、世界 17カ国の70取引所に上場する金融商品をリアルタイムで日本から発注できる。投資家にとっては多様な海外の金融商品を割安な手数料で売買しやすくなる。当初は機関投資家の注文に限るが、将来は個人投資家からも受け付ける方針だ。

　まず海外商品の取り扱いを強化したい日本の証券会社からの注文取り次ぎから開始。営業店舗は持たず、売買はネット経由のみとする。(07:00)

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大手損保、中国事業を拡大　現法増資や拠点再編

　大手損害保険会社が中国での事業を拡大する。東京海上日動火災保険は出店拡大に備えて現地法人を増資。三井住友海上火災保険は香港などの拠点を再編した。損害保険ジャパンは月内にも広州に出店する計画。欧米の金融機関には中国事業を縮小する動きもあるが、財務に余裕のある国内損保は成長が見込める中国での業容拡大をめざす。

　東京海上日動は昨年12月に現地法人「東京海上日動火災保険（中国）公司」の資本金を2億元（約26億円）から3億元（約39億円）に増資した。検討中の広州、北京などへの出店に備える。2008年度は中国で前年度比14％増の65億円の保険料収入を見込む。同社は外資系損保としてアメリカン・インターナショナル・グループ（ＡＩＧ）に次ぎ中国2位で、積極出店により首位をめざす。(07:00)

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全銀システムを見直し　運営法整備、金融審が一致

　金融審議会（首相の諮問機関）は9日の会合で、民間金融機関の決済網である全国銀行データ通信システム（全銀システム）の運営方法などについて法整備をすることで一致した。全銀システムは東京銀行協会が運営しているが、実質的には1年ごとに代わる幹事行が担っており、継続的・長期的な意思決定がしづらいとの課題が指摘されていた。

　金融審は今後、全銀システムが機動的で透明性のある意思決定をするための制度のあり方などを議論する。技術革新や国際標準などに対応したシステム構築が迅速にできる体制を目指す。金融庁は金融審での議論を踏まえて詳細を詰め、今国会に関連法案を提出したい考えだ。(07:00)

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加ト吉や日水など、冷凍食品原料の原産地を表示

　冷凍食品メーカーが原料の原産地情報の表示に相次いで乗り出す。加ト吉は家庭用商品で国産、海外産を問わず原産国・地域を包装上に表示、日本水産は同じ商品でも原料仕入れ先が異なる場合はパッケージを変えて対応する。今月下旬で中国製冷凍ギョーザによる中毒事件から丸1年がたつが、冷食市場は低迷が続く。原料原産地を表示するとコスト負担が増えるほか、消費者離れが強まる可能性もあるが、各社は情報開示で安心感を与えることが先決と判断した。

　現在、冷食は輸入品の生産地（最終加工地）を包装上に表示する義務はあるが、使われている原料の原産地を示す必要はない。ただ消費者の食の安心・安全への関心が高まっているほか、東京都が6月から都内で販売される家庭用国産商品に限り、原産地表示を全面的に義務付ける。(16:00)

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日本電産が賃金カット　グループ１万人に２月から1―5％

　日本電産は9日、業績悪化を受け、国内にグループで1万人弱いる一般社員の賃金を2月から1―5％カットする方針を明らかにした。既に実施している役員報酬の減額幅も20―50％に拡大する。永守重信社長は「赤字転落を避け、雇用を維持するため」と説明している。

　業績が堅調な日本電産コパル電子を除く、日本電産本体と国内のグループ会社の全社員が対象。それぞれの会社の業績に応じて基本給を当面の間、1―5％減らすほか、仕事を社員間で融通するなどして残業を減らす。労働組合があるグループ会社は既に労使間で合意しているという。(07:00)

----------------------------
パソナ、ニートの親向け相談会　千葉で21・23日

　パソナグループは9日、フリーターやニートの子どもがいる保護者向けの相談会「子どもの自立を願う保護者のための勉強会」を千葉県内で初めて開くと発表した。同社の若者向け就労支援プログラムの担当者らが相談に応じる。

　パソナ千葉店（千葉市）で21日午後1時半―午後3時半、柏店（柏市）で23日午後4時半―午後6時半にそれぞれ開催する。対象は20―30歳程度の子どもを持つ保護者。

　相談会では企業の採用状況や就労環境を説明するほか、パソナの提供する就労支援プログラムを紹介。子どもとの上手なコミュニケーションの取り方を保護者役と子ども役に分かれて実施するロールプレイング（役割実演）などにも取り組む。

　総務省がまとめた2007年の全国のフリーター数は06年比6万人減の181万人。03年の217万人をピークに減少しているが、25―34歳の「年長フリーター」は06年並みの92万人となっている。

　参加無料。定員は各10人。問い合わせはパソナグループ事業開発部（電話03・6734・1070）まで。

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東京都、臨時職200人増員　練馬・板橋区は計410人採用

　雇用情勢の急速な悪化を受けて、東京都は2009年度に臨時職員を200人増員することを決めた。都内の自治体は相次いで雇用対策を打ち出しており、9日は練馬区が290人、板橋区が120人の雇用を確保すると発表した。

　都は事務作業を手伝う要員として、新たに200人の臨時職員を雇う。雇用期間は6カ月。人件費などを賄う費用として2億円を09年度予算案に計上する。このほかに、公園や道路の維持管理などを事業者に発注し、請け負った事業者に日雇い労働者を延べ50万人採用してもらう。

　練馬区は09年度末までに、10億円規模の雇用対策を検討している。直接雇用や人材派遣の受け入れで290人分の雇用をつくる。仕事内容は行政事務の補助や窓口案内を想定している。

　板橋区は40人を臨時職員として直接雇用する。政府が08年度の2次補正予算案に盛り込んだ定額給付金事業の準備作業や窓口業務に充てる予定だ。このほか放置自転車監視などの業務委託で、事業者に80人を雇用してもらう。

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持ち帰り弁当のプレナス、徳島県で４店同時開業

　持ち帰り弁当チェーンの「ほっともっと」を展開するプレナスは16日、徳島県内に4店を同時開店する。徳島県内への進出は初めてで、四国では香川県の2 店に次いで2県目。既存の物流網を生かし四国で店舗網を拡大する考えで、残る愛媛、高知両県での出店も視野に入れている。

　開店するのは北島店（北島町）、安宅店（徳島市）、徳島空港前店（松茂町）、羽ノ浦店（阿南市）。

　「ほっともっと」は2008年12月末時点で全国32都道府県に計2241店を展開している。

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島根・奥出雲町、テレビ電話で高齢者支援

　島根県奥出雲町は9日、テレビ電話を活用した高齢者の生活支援システムを稼働した。高齢者のいる世帯などに約750台のテレビ電話を設置し、安否確認や健康相談、食料品の注文などに活用する。約30億円を投じ、町内全世帯に敷いた光ファイバー網を活用したサービス。高齢化が進む中山間地で、ＩＴ（情報技術）を使い地域活性化に結びつける。

　稼働したシステム「万事万端（ばんじばんたん）」は、高齢者にも扱いやすいタッチパネル式のテレビ電話を採用。高精度な映像を見ながら電話できる。システム構築費は2000万円あまり。

　商店に日用品の配達を注文できるほか、冬場の雪深い時期に民生委員による高齢者の安否確認が便利になる。町役場はコールセンターを設置しており、同システムを使って健康相談や医療機関への取り次ぎを行う。

　奥出雲町は、都市部との情報格差是正や高齢化対策などのため、昨年末に約5000ある全世帯を結ぶ全長約800キロメートルの光ファイバー網を構築。

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防衛大綱改定へ６月メド報告書　政府懇談会が初会合

　政府は9日、防衛政策の基本方針を定める防衛計画の大綱（防衛大綱）改定に向け、有識者による「安全保障と防衛力に関する懇談会」（座長・勝俣恒久東京電力会長）の初会合を首相官邸で開いた。中国やロシアの軍備増強や自衛隊海外派遣の拡大を反映し、陸海空自衛隊の配置や規模を見直す。部隊や主要装備の数量を示す「別表」のあり方も検証。6月をメドに報告書をまとめる。(00:18)

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伝統野菜復活へ官民で耕す　大阪府が認証制度

　能登野菜や江戸野菜といった伝統野菜の復活に官民が力を注いでいる。地産地消を前面に、卸業者が取り扱い品目を増やすなか、大阪府は認証制度を導入、石川県は新たなブランド作りに乗り出している。農林水産省は2月に生産者や流通関係者が集まる伝統野菜のシンポジウムを金沢市で開く。

　伝統野菜は江戸時代など古くから各地域で生産されていた固有の品種。耕作地の都市化や大量生産品種の開発で生産量が減り、市場からなくなった品目も多い。(16:00)

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お客様の電話、録音します　相談窓口で導入広がる

　消費者からの問い合わせや苦情を電話で受け付ける「お客様相談窓口」で、通話の録音や本人確認を徹底する企業が増えている。悪質な“クレーマー”とのトラブル防止が主な理由で、問題解決につながった例も多い。しかし、同意なしの通話内容の録音などに不安を持つ人も少なくない。顧客の声を業務改善につなげるための窓口での、行き違いに波紋が広がっている。

　「録音とナンバーディスプレーを採用させていただいております」――。大手自動車メーカー、スズキのお客様相談室に電話をかけると、自動音声でこんな応答が流れる。「通話内容の分析・記録と、やり取りに不備がないか反省するため」と担当者は説明する。(07:00)

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青色防犯灯：効果上々　犯罪が４割減…東京・足立の町会
足立区六町３丁目の住宅地に設置されて１年になる青色防犯灯
足立区六町３丁目の住宅地に設置されて１年になる青色防犯灯

　防犯効果があるとして、全国で設置が進んでいる「青色防犯灯」を東京都内で初めて設置した足立区の六町三丁目町会（約６００世帯）で、この１年間の犯罪件数が前年比で約６割にとどまり、隣接地区と比べて大幅な減少となった。地元町会は増設を検討しており、管轄する警視庁綾瀬署は「青色効果かまだ分からないが、住民の防犯意識が高まった成果」と話している。

　足立区六町には０５年、つくばエクスプレスの六町駅ができたため、住民以外の出入りとともに犯罪も増えると予想された。三丁目町会は自主パトロールを始めたほか、「人の心を落ち着け防犯効果がある」と奈良県が０５年に先駆的に導入した青色防犯灯の設置を決め、０７年１１月、町会内の街灯５９カ所のうち２５灯を青色灯にした。

　綾瀬署によると、設置後の０８年１月～１１月の犯罪件数を前年同期（０７年１月～１１月）と比較すると、三丁目は前年（２５件）に比べ４割近く減少し、１６件にとどまった。隣接する一丁目は前年比１・６倍に増えたほか、件数の減ったニ、四丁目でも同８割前後だった。

　三丁目ではとりわけ、空き巣などの「侵入盗」が０７年は９件と隣接３地区と比べて突出して多かったが、０８年は１１月までに発生はなかった。

　三丁目町会は青色防犯灯について住民にアンケートを集計しており、中には「青色だと暗いので元の白色灯がいい」という意見もあった。その一方で１年間で犯罪抑止効果も見られたとして、今後、青色灯の増設を進めるという。

　町会内に設置されている青色防犯灯は全国でも珍しい１本に青色ＬＥＤ（発光ダイオード）６４個を内蔵した蛍光灯タイプ。１本１万６０００円と通常の蛍光灯より割高な半面、月当たりの電気代は６７円安い１５５円で、寿命も５倍程度の４～６万時間という。同町会長の小松健さん（６６）は「防犯対策は面の広がりが重要。他地区も同様の取り組みをしてほしい」と話す。

　綾瀬署生活安全課は「管内全体でも発生件数は前年比１４％減少となっているが、３丁目地区で大幅に減少したのは街灯の色を変えるという地域の防犯意識の高まりも大きいのでは」と話している。

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中田カウスさん：襲われる　停車中バットで、けが－－大阪

　９日午後８時４５分ごろ、大阪市中央区日本橋２の府道（堺筋）で、信号待ちの乗用車に乗っていた漫才師の中田カウス（本名・野間勝道）さん（５９）が、近づいてきた男に金属バットで顔を殴られた。男はそのまま逃走した。中田さんは左のほおに打撲の軽傷。大阪府警南署は傷害などの容疑で逃げた男の行方を追っている。

　同署の調べによると、男は中田さんが座る助手席の窓ガラスを金属バットでたたき割り、さらに、中田さん目がけてバットの先端で数回、突いてきた。うち１回が中田さんの左ほおに当たった。男は十数メートル離れたところに止めてあったミニバイクに乗って、南に向かって逃走した。

　黒色タオルで覆面をした上で、フルフェースのヘルメットをかぶり、黒っぽいダウンジャケットのような上着を着用していた。中田さんは弟子の女性（２４）が運転する車に乗って、現場近くの「なんばグランド花月」から北に向かう途中だった。

　中田さんは、０７年４月に、暴力団と親密な関係にあるとして週刊誌などで報道され、吉本興業の「特別顧問」を退任している。

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中田カウスさん：停車中、金属バットで殴られる　大阪
漫才師の中田カウスさん
漫才師の中田カウスさん

　９日午後８時４５分ごろ、大阪市中央区日本橋２の府道（堺筋）で、信号待ちの乗用車に乗っていた漫才師の中田カウス（本名・野間勝道）さん（５９）が、近づいてきた男に金属バットで顔を殴られた。男はそのまま逃走した。中田さんは左のほおに打撲の軽傷。大阪府警南署は傷害などの容疑で逃げた男の行方を追っている。

　同署の調べによると、男は中田さんが座る助手席の窓ガラスを金属バットでたたき割り、さらに、中田さん目がけてバットの先端で数回、突いてきた。うち１回が中田さんの左ほおに当たった。男は十数メートル離れたところに止めてあったミニバイクに乗って、南に向かって逃走した。黒色タオルで覆面をした上で、フルフェースのヘルメットをかぶり、黒っぽいダウンジャケットのような上着を着用していた。中田さんは弟子の女性（２４）が運転する車に乗って、現場近くの「なんばグランド花月」（中央区）から北に向かう途中だった。

　中田さんが所属する「よしもとクリエイティブ・エージェンシー」は１０日、中田さんがなんばグランド花月の出番を１２日まで休演すると発表した。けがは頭や顔、肩などの打撲と切り傷で、２週間の治療が必要としている。

　中田さんは０７年４月、暴力団と親密な関係にあるとして週刊誌などで報道され、吉本興業の「特別顧問」を退任している。

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米ボーイング社：従業員の７％約４５００人を削減へ

　米航空機大手ボーイングは９日、民間航空機部門の従業員の約７％に当たる約４５００人を０９年中に削減する、と発表した。世界的な景気悪化の影響で受注の減少が予想され、リストラを急ぐ方針とみられる。

　同社は８日、０８年の航空機受注数が、前年比約５３％減の６６２機に急減したことを明らかにしたばかり。０７年までは新型機を中心に受注が大きく伸びたが、今後は乗客減を予想する航空会社からの受注が低迷するとの見方が強い。

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日本電産：一般社員１万人の賃金を最大５％削減へ
日本電産の永守重信社長
日本電産の永守重信社長

　モーター製造大手の日本電産は１０日、国内のグループで約１万人いる一般社員の賃金を２月から最大５％削減する方針を明らかにした。既に実施している役員報酬の減額幅も最大５割カットに拡大する。永守重信社長は「危機感を共有して不況に立ち向かう。赤字転落を避け、雇用を維持する」と話している。

　業績が好調な日本電産コパル電子を除く国内の全社員が対象で、会社の業績に応じて減額幅は１～５％とする。労働組合があるグループ会社は既に労使間で合意しているという。

　役員報酬は昨年１２月から１０～３０％削減しているが、永守社長の削減幅を３０％から５０％に広げるなど２０～５０％に拡大する。

　日本電産は、０８年３月期までの５年間で連結売上高が３倍になるなど業績拡大を続け、０８年春には６％の賃上げを実施した。しかし、０９年３月期の連結営業利益が３期ぶりに減益になる見通しになり、一転、賃金削減に踏み切ることにした。

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富士通マイクロエレクトロニクス：半導体不況、３工場従業員に時短　賃金３分の２に

　富士通の半導体子会社、富士通マイクロエレクトロニクス（東京）が、国内３工場の従業員を対象に、勤務時間短縮と賃金減額を実施したことが１０日、わかった。自動車やデジタル家電の販売低迷で、半導体の需要が急減していることに対応した。

　対象は、岩手工場（岩手県金ケ崎町）、三重工場（三重県桑名市）、会津若松工場（福島県会津若松市）。正社員計約５０００人のうち、大部分を占める製造部門の従業員。年始休み明けから交代勤務体制を組み替え、１人当たりの労働時間を３分の２に短縮。これに伴い、賃金も３分の２近くに減額する。３月末まで実施し、その後は状況に応じて判断する。雇用維持のため一つの仕事を複数の従業員で分け合うワークシェアリングの性格もありそう。

　半導体メーカーでは、ＩＴ（情報技術）バブル崩壊後の０２年にも多くのメーカーが導入した。当時と同様に半導体需要が落ち込んでおり、雇用維持と人件費抑制を目的に、交代勤務の見直しによるワークシェアリングが広がる可能性がある。

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エールフランス：イタリアのアリタリアに資本参加決定

　【ローマ共同】国営イタリア放送によると、欧州の航空持ち株会社エールフランス－ＫＬＭは９日の取締役会で、経営難に陥ったイタリアのアリタリア航空の株式２５％を買収することを承認した。買収額は３億１０００万ユーロ（約３８５億円）を軸に最終調整が行われている。

　アリタリアも１２日に取締役会を開く予定で、同社側が承認すればエールフランスの資本参加が実現する。

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自衛隊イラク派遣：「心に変調、不名誉」ため込み…妻もつらい　専門家が論文
　◇「反対」言い出せず過敏に

　５年に及ぶ自衛隊のイラク派遣活動が昨年１２月で終了した。実質的な戦地への派遣は戦後初めてで、隊員とその家族の心も揺れ動いた。防衛省の協力を得た専門家が、イラクなどに派遣された自衛官とその妻たちにインタビューして論文にまとめた。派遣された隊員本人だけでなく、その妻にも強い精神的なストレスがもたらされている実態が浮き彫りになり、隊員と家族へのメンタルケアの体制整備が急務と言えそうだ。【本多健】

　調査は大学の文化人類学者がイラクや過去にＰＫＯ（国連平和維持活動）で海外派遣された経験のある三十数人の自衛隊員とその妻を対象にしたもので、論文は防衛関係の専門誌「国際安全保障」の０７年１２月号に掲載された。

　派遣隊員と妻に共通するのは我慢。不安で心に変調を来しても、それを不名誉と考え、ため込む傾向がある。

　「家族の反対があれば行かずに済む。でもなかなか言いにくい」。２０代の妻は本音を語る。神経質になり、台所の換気扇の音にさえ敏感になったという。

　テレビで現地の情勢が報じられると、時に涙がこみあげた。心配をかけまいと自らは連絡を控えたが、夫からの電話には絶対出たいので、入浴時も携帯電話は手放さなかった。

　夫も同じだった。妻にイラクの人々との交流は話したが、危険な任務の内容を話すことは控えていた。過労の影響か、帰国後、夫は次第に仕事への意欲を失い、うつ状態になり一時精神科に通った。

　９１年に始まった海外派遣は、冷戦期とは異なる心構えを家族に求めた。３０代の妻は「派遣までは生命の心配は全くなかった。でも行かせたい。覚悟しないと」と心に決めた。しかし、出発直前になると不安になった。「海外に行ったら強くなる」と派遣歴のある隊員の家族に励まされたが、実感がわかず苦労した。

　別の３０代の妻は、帰国後の夫の変化に戸惑った。生活が不規則で精神的なゆとりもない。「腫れ物に触るようだった。機嫌がいいかと思うと急に悪くなる」。夫はストレスが原因で一時入院した。医師から、自ら命を絶ちかねない状態だったと言われた。隊員の妻は夫に共感しようとする傾向が強く、心の危機は妻にも伝染しやすい。妻は「家族にもストレスがたまっていた」と振り返る。

　防衛省の調査では、ここ数年の自衛官の自殺率は、９０年代後半に比べ１・５倍程度に増加した。イラクやインド洋に派遣された自衛官も、一昨年までに１６人が自ら命を絶った。防衛省は「派遣が動機とは特定できない」と説明するが、激しい戦闘を経験した米国兵士の３割にＰＴＳＤ（心的外傷後ストレス障害）の症状が見られるという報告もある。

　制服組幹部は「派遣の賛否とは関係なく、隊員と家族が悩みを語りあい、心の平安を保つ仕組みを整備する必要がある」と話した。

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アフガン支援：政府職員を今春派遣へ　支援調整、現地ニーズ調査

　政府は９日、アフガニスタン中西部のチャグチャランでリトアニアが展開している「地方復興チーム」（ＰＲＴ）に今春、外務省職員数人を派遣すると発表した。日本はこれまで、国際協力機構（ＪＩＣＡ）の職員らが現地で技術協力を行ってきたが、政府職員の派遣は初めて。学校建設や医療支援などの調整や現地のニーズを調査する見通しだ。【川上克己】

　ＰＲＴは外国軍の防護下で文民が地域復興に当たる枠組み。アフガンとイラクで実施され、地域ごとに軍が治安維持などを担い、文民が教育・保健分野の復興支援に当たる。

　リトアニアが昨秋、職員派遣を日本政府に打診。チャグチャランは「アフガン国内では治安が比較的安定している」（外務省安保課）ことから派遣を決めた。政府は今後、外国からの要請があれば、効果や治安情勢などを見極めて追加派遣を検討する方針だ。

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年越し派遣村：移転先の相談窓口、厚労省継続認めず

　「年越し派遣村」実行委員会は９日、同村にいた失業者が身を寄せている４施設の使用期限が１２日に迫っていることから、施設にある住宅などの総合相談窓口設置の継続を求め、厚生労働省と交渉した。同省は継続を認めず、実行委は再検討を求めた。

　実行委によると、失業者たちは住居探しが進んでおらず、施設にいる約２５０人が１２日までの移転に間に合わない見通しだという。そのため、総合相談窓口を引き続き設置するように求めたが、厚労省は、１２日以降はハローワークや福祉事務所での相談に切り替えるとした。

　実行委員会は「全国的にも緊急のシェルターや総合相談体制は必要であり求めたい」と話している。

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07:08 GMT, Friday, 9 January 2009
Colombian drug lord shot in Spain
Map of Spain

Leonidas Vargas, a once powerful Colombian drug trafficker, has been shot dead in his hospital bed in the Spanish capital, Madrid.

Police said that a gunman entered his room and fired four shots at Vargas, who was being treated for lung disease.

Vargas, 59, was the head of the Caqueta cartel which ran vast cocaine laboratories in Colombia in the 1980s.

After serving a prison sentence in Colombia, he was arrested in Spain in 2006 and was on bail awaiting trial.

The Spanish authorities stopped him for carrying a fake Venezuelan passport, and he was later charged in connection with a 500kg (1,100lb) cocaine haul.

His trial was delayed and he was admitted to the Doce de Octubre hospital for treatment in early January.

Low profile

Witnesses say two people entered Vargas' room on the fifth floor of the hospital. One man took out a pistol with a silencer and fired four shots at Vargas, who was asleep.

His killing is believed to be part of a settling of accounts between rival drug-trafficking organisations, says the BBC's Jeremy McDermott in Colombia.

Vargas assumed a low profile after being released in Colombia, but in the 1980s he was allied with the powerful Medellin drug cartel of Pablo Escobar.

An idea of the scale of his wealth at the time was revealed after the Colombian state seized $29m worth of properties from him.

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23:56 GMT, Friday, 9 January 2009
Hoax e-mail angers Jewish leaders
Pro-Palestinian protesters outside Israeli embassy in London (04/01/09)

Jewish officials have reacted angrily after a hoax e-mail claimed a rally for Middle East peace planned to take place in London on Sunday had been cancelled.

The event at Trafalgar Square is expected to draw thousands of people a week after a huge rally against Israel's war in Gaza was held there.

The e-mail purported to come from the UK's Jewish communal leadership, the Board of Deputies (BoD).

The BoD denounced the "hurtful" hoax, and vowed that the rally will go ahead.

"The damage is done," BoD spokesperson Samantha Cohen told the BBC News website.

Ms Cohen said it was particularly problematic because the e-mail, which went to private Jewish e-mails and communal groups, was sent just before the Jewish sabbath, during which religious Jews do not use electrical appliances.

The e-mail, which appeared authentic, said the rally was cancelled because it "might be perceived as the community taking one side in the tragic war in Gaza and Israel, and might be seen as supporting Israel's military campaign".

Ms Cohen said: "It's an attempt to silence the Jewish community's support for peace for the people of Israel and Gaza, but I think it will backfire and make people even more determined to turn out when they hear it was a hoax".

The event will be the first major rally organised by the Jewish community in the UK after a series of global protests over Israel's offensive against Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip.

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17:41 GMT, Friday, 9 January 2009
Google search finds missing child
Natasha Maltais

A nine-year-old girl, allegedly kidnapped by her grandmother, has been found using a mobile phone signal and Google Street View.

A police officer and a firefighter in Athol, Massachusetts, joined forces after authorities were alerted that Natalie Maltais had been taken.

Officers used GPS in the girl's mobile phone to find her approximate location.

They fed the co-ordinates into Google Street View, pinpointing a hotel where the child was subsequently found.

The alarm was raised after grandmother Rose Maltais picked up Natalie from the child's legal guardians for what was supposed to be a weekend away.

She "said that she wasn't going to return Natalie and then left the state", Athol police chief Timothy Anderson told the BBC.

The police contacted Ms Maltais, but after she didn't return Natalie as promised, they decided to track them down using Natalie's mobile phone.

Since 2005, US law says that mobile phone providers must be able to locate 67% of callers within 100 metres and 95% of callers within 300 meters.

This requirement has led to GPS capability in most new mobile phones in the US. Rose Maltais

"This is very useful, although we can only use it in emergency situations such as when a person is missing or lost, or a life is in danger," said chief Anderson.

Knowing this, police officer Todd Neale contacted the mobile phone provider, AT&T, which gave him GPS coordinates every time the phone was activated. Police must submit a compliance form to the phone provider to request location information.

Joined-up thinking

Officer Neale then got in touch with Athol's deputy fire chief Thomas Lozier who had previously used GPS to direct firefighters tackling forest and brush fires, and to find lost hikers.

"Last spring, there was an incident where the cell phone transmitted the co-ordinates of some people lost in a local conservation area," deputy chief Lozier explained.

"We tracked them down using hand-held GPS units and within an hour we'd gotten them back."

He used mapping software to determine the location of the co-ordinates given to him by Officer Neale over the radio. Then he turned to Google. Google street view

"As soon as the officer said to me, 'I wonder how we can research the area', I thought of it," he said.

He found the location on Google maps and looked at the Street View, which shows eye-level photographs of the area. That's when he spotted a nearby hotel.

"I noticed the hotel in the area, and as I was panning the map, I was able to see the road sign at the intersection," he said.

He used Google to search for hotels near that intersection and found the Budget Inn in Natural Bridge, Virginia.

Officer Neale alerted the Virginia state police, who found the missing child and her grandmother in the hotel as predicted.

The deputy fire chief said how happy he was with the outcome of his team effort with Officer Neale.

"It was brilliant," he said. "Half an hour later, he called me [on my walkie-talkie] at home. I had my home computer ready to go and he informed me that it had been successful."

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女児を殺害、遺体の一部を火鍋で食った！？　中国・広州の「食人」事件 (1/4ページ)
2009.1.10 13:00
このニュースのトピックス：週末プレミアム
女児バラバラ殺人事件を伝える中国語のサイト画面。子供の写真を抱く母親には悲痛さがにじむ女児バラバラ殺人事件を伝える中国語のサイト画面。子供の写真を抱く母親には悲痛さがにじむ

　中国の広州市で、女児（４）を殺害し、バラバラに切断した遺体を冷蔵庫に保管していた男（３３）が逮捕された。報道によれば、男は遺体の一部を「火鍋」に入れて食べた疑いが強いことが地元の警察当局の調べで判明したという。付近では、幼い子供が相次いで行方不明になっており、連続「食人」事件に発展する可能性も出てきた。もともと奇行が目立った男の“猟奇的”な犯罪の一部始終を、報道を元にたどった。（桜井紀雄）

床一面に女性や女児の衣服

　「広州日報」や「信息時報」などの地元紙や、香港紙「星島日報」の報道を総合すると事件の概要はこうだ。

　事件は１月２日、中国南部沿海部の都市、広州郊外の集合住宅で起きた。被害にあったのは、両親と３人で暮らす李伶俐ちゃん。隣には祖父母が住み、ひとりっ子として両親、祖父母から溺愛（できあい）されていた。

　その家族が外出したすきの犯行だった。

　午前８時ごろ、父親は１月１日に買ったばかりの服とくつを伶俐ちゃんに着せ、妻とともに近くの縫製工場に出勤。祖母も仕事に行き、祖父は近所の女性に孫を預けて廃品回収に出かけた。

　「いつもこうでした。１時間ちょっとすれば戻りますし、いつもなら何も起きなかったのに…」

　地元記者を前に祖父はそう唇をかんだという。

　だが、９時半過ぎに帰宅した祖父は孫娘がいないことに気付く。「玄関で遊んでいたと思ったら目を離したすきにいなくなったの」と伶俐ちゃんを預かった近所の女性は説明した。

　「友達とでも遊んでいるんだろう」と近所を聞いて回ったが、見当たらず、昼に戻った両親らと警察に届け出た。

　狭い通路を隔て２０平方メートル足らずの部屋が１００世帯以上長屋状に密集する住宅地。警察は一軒一軒くまなく当たったが、まったく手掛かりがつかめなかったという。

　「あいつじゃないかと真っ先に思いました」

　取材に訪れた報道陣に、こう話したのは祖母だった。祖母は正午ごろ、日ごろから不審な言動が気になっていた「張」という姓の近くの男の家を訪ねた。

　「見てないけど」

　男はしらばっくれたという。

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偽旅券求めトルコ→ギリシャ→オランダ→スペイン…　４カ国経由で不法入国　覚醒剤密売イラン人「日本はもうかる」 (1/2ページ)
2009.1.10 13:37
このニュースのトピックス：ドラッグ

　大阪市内の住宅街で、イラン人の男が大量の覚醒（かくせい）剤などを密売していた事件で、逮捕・起訴されたイラン国籍のアリ・レザ・ジャムシディ被告（３１）が、来日するために欧州の複数の国を経由して入国していたことが１０日、近畿厚生局麻薬取締部の調べで分かった。日本とイランの間では現在、相互のビザ免除措置が停止中で、正規旅券でも入国審査が厳しく、ジャムシディ被告はビザ免除国の偽造旅券を求め、複雑なルートをたどったとみられる。

　ジャムシディ被告は「日本に行けば薬物の密売でもうかると聞き、お金を稼ぐために来た」と供述。イランに妻と２歳の子供を残しての密入国で、捜査関係者は「失敗や危険を冒しての入国。日本での密売がいかに魅力的か示している」と警戒を強めている。

　調べでは、ジャムシディ被告は昨年８月上旬にイランを出国後、トルコ、ギリシャ、オランダ、スペイン、オランダの延べ５カ国を経て９月４日に成田空港に到着。約１週間後には大阪市東成区内で密売を始め、２カ月で約６３００万円を売り上げた。

　供述によると、イランからトルコへは正規旅券で出国。トルコでイラン人旅券ブローカーに正規旅券を預けた後、モーターボートで海上からギリシャへ密入国を図ったという。

　ギリシャでは国境警備隊に見つかって銃撃を受け、身柄を拘束された。しかし、アフガニスタン人を名乗ったため「難民」として釈放されたという。その後、ギリシャのイラン人ブローカーから写真を張り替えた英国籍の偽造旅券を入手し、日本に密入国していた。

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覚醒剤密売…土地勘ゼロ、日本語話せないイラン人を２日間で即戦力に
2008.12.10 11:58
このニュースのトピックス：汚染・環境破壊
押収された覚せい剤や大麻など＝１０日午前、近畿厚生局麻薬取締部押収された覚せい剤や大麻など＝１０日午前、近畿厚生局麻薬取締部

　２カ月間で約６３００万円も売り上げていたイラン人による違法薬物密売事件は、覚醒（かくせい）剤などが予想以上の規模で一般社会に蔓延（まんえん）していることを改めて裏付けた。来日間もないアリ・レザ・ジャムシディ容疑者（３１）は日本語が話せず、大阪の地理もほとんど知らない。そんな外国人が短期間で収益を上げることができた背景に、末端の密売人を即席で作り上げるイラン人グループの「密売システム」の存在が浮かび上がってきた。

　「イランでは独身なら１万円あれば１０日は暮らせる。日本人はどうしてあんな高いもの（違法薬物）を買うのか不思議だ」

　調べに対し、こんな供述もしているというジャムシディ容疑者は、密売で稼ぐために日本へやってきた。９月４日に成田空港へ入国したが、薬物密売に関してはまったくの素人だった。

　ところが、同月８日に来阪後、大阪市東成区内のマンションで密売グループ関係者が２日間にわたり、薬物の小分けや密売の方法について指導。入国から１週間もたたない１０日から毎晩、密売するようになった。

　密売の流れは、グループの男が持つ「客付き携帯電話」に注文が入ると、男がジャムシディ容疑者に連絡。あらかじめ地図上に設定された１番から１６番までのポイントを指定し、自転車で密売に行かせるというものだった。

　「○番の地点に止まっている白い車の男に覚醒剤を渡せ」。記号化した単純な指示を出すことで、日本語も話せない外国人が末端の密売人として即戦力となっていた。

　麻薬取締部の捜査関係者は「関西ではイラン人による組織的な密売はないといわれていたが、短期間にこれほどの売り上げがあるとは予想をはるかに超えている」と驚きを隠さない。密売がいつごろから行われていたのか、購入客の特定も含め、薬物汚染の実態解明が進められている。

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年金特別便２７８万通届かず、「記録漏れ」解決に支障

　社会保険庁が昨年１０月に年金受給者・現役加入者への発送を終了した「ねんきん特別便」約１億８００万人分のうち、２７８万人分が同月末の時点で転居先不明などで本人に届かず、同庁に返送されたことがわかった。

　特別便が届かなければ、記録の誤りに気付かずに年金が本来より少なくなる可能性が出てくる。記録漏れ問題の解決に大きな支障となりそうだ。

　特別便は２種類ある。社保庁は約５０００万件の該当者不明の年金記録を名寄せし、記録漏れが濃厚な１０３０万人には青い封筒の「名寄せ便」を、残りの９８４３万人には緑の封筒の「全員便」を送った。

　社保庁は加入者らの住所が転居などで変わった際には、自治体や企業からの届け出で更新している。しかし、本人が自治体に転居を知らせなかったり、企業が社保庁に届け出なかったりすれば、新たな住所を把握できない。今回の問題にも、そうした事情が影響していると見られる。

　返送された２７８万人分の特別便は、５０万人分が名寄せ便、残りが全員便だ。受給者は２７８万人のうち１７万人で、大半は現役加入者となっている。

　名寄せ便は、大半が記録の訂正に結びつくと見込まれる。全員便も、これまでに受け取った人の１割弱が「訂正あり」と答えており、記録漏れ解消につながる可能性がある。

　社保庁は「特別便が届かなかった人は社会保険事務所などに申し出て、住所変更をしてほしい」としている。また、５０００万件の記録を名寄せした際にも利用した住民基本台帳ネットワークで転居先を確認することも検討している。

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見学中止の東京・築地市場、１９日から受け入れ再開へ

　外国人観光客らのマナー違反で、マグロ競り場の見学を中止している東京都築地市場は、今月１９日から見学を再開する方針を決めた。

　誘導役の警備員を配置するなど、マナー違反行為を防ぐ体制を整える。週明けに市場関係者に説明を始め、ホテルや旅行会社などにも連絡する。

　同市場で早朝行われるマグロの競りは外国人観光客の人気スポットだが、競り場への立ち入りやフラッシュ撮影などの禁止行為が後を絶たないため、都は先月１５日から見学受け入れを中止し、再開するかどうかを検討していた。

　外国人観光客へ配慮するとともに、日本の食文化を国際的にアピールする狙いなどから、再開方針を決めた。

　再開にあたっては、競り場入り口に複数の警備員を配置するほか、禁止行為を英語で記した紙を観光客に示し、ルール順守を求める方向だ。同市場のホームページでも、英語で見学ルールを掲載する。

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破綻したウェッジウッド、米投資ファンドが買収へ

　【コペンハーゲン＝是枝智】経営破綻(はたん)した陶磁器大手ウオーターフォード・ウェッジウッド（Ｗ＆Ｗ）が、米投資ファンド、ＫＰＳキャピタル・パートナーズに実質的に買収される見通しになった。

　Ｗ＆Ｗの管財人が９日までに明らかにした。

　買収の対象は英国の高級陶磁器ブランド「ウェッジウッド」や「ロイヤルドルトン」、クリスタルガラスのブランド「ウオーターフォード」など、Ｗ＆Ｗの中核資産だ。管財人は買収価格などを巡りＫＰＳと詰めの協議を進めている。

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独高級食器「ローゼンタール」破産　ウェッジウッド余波

2009年1月10日11時10分

印刷

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　【ベルリン＝金井和之】ドイツの高級食器メーカー、ローゼンタールが９日、裁判所に破産申請をした。世界的な金融危機の影響による業績悪化に加え、同社の大株主で英高級陶磁器ウェッジウッドなどを傘下に持つ「ウォーターフォード・ウェッジウッド」の事実上の経営破綻（はたん）が、引き金を引いた形だ。

　ＤＰＡ通信によると、ローゼンタールの株式の９割以上をウォーターフォード・ウェッジウッドが所有。業績の落ち込みへの対応で人員削減などに取り組んだものの、「十分な資金調達ができなかった」（ローゼンタール幹部）という。

　ローゼンタールは１８７９年に独南部ゼルプで設立された。有名デザイナーと共同で作った製品などは日本でも人気が高く、高級家具のメーカーとしても知られている。