Bull-market bonds nobody wants to buy

Bull-market bonds nobody wants to buy

By John Authers

Published: January 16 2009 20:06 | Last updated: January 16 2009 20:06

Is the government bond market in a bubble, or at least highly overvalued?

It is one of the questions of the hour in the investment community. Last week, at a new year’s conference of the New York Society of Securities Analysts, a body of professionals who spend their lives thinking about questions like this, it was put to the vote.

Richard Bernstein, investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, asked the hundreds of analysts in attendance to raise their hands if they agreed that bonds were in a bubble, or at least very overpriced. Virtually every hand in the room went up.

Yet bond markets remain strong: as the chart shows, 10-year Treasury yields are at levels unprecedented since the war.

How can this co-exist with a strong perception that bonds are overvalued? As Mr Bernstein puts it, bonds are in a historic bull market, and yet nobody wants to buy them. Or, as he told the securities analysts in New York, who had an almost unrelentingly negative discussion, people must be bullish about the economy after all.

How to resolve the conundrum? Bonds issued by the government of the world’s biggest economy are as close to a risk-free investment as exists. But over long periods, the value of the cash flows they generate as income will be diminished by inflation. Thus, when investors are worried by inflation they should demand a higher yield from bonds (and hence, pay a lower price).

The opposite holds true when the worry is deflation, or an outright fall in prices.

Friday’s inflation figures from the US thus made the case that bond yields should be low. According to Capital Economics of London, they show that on a three-month annualised basis, prices in the US are already falling by 12.7 per cent.

A big chunk of this is caused by falling oil prices, so it is therefore significant that excluding oil and food, the three-month annualised fall in the remaining “core” price level is 0.3 per cent.

This is the core of the case for holding bonds. And the core of the current debate is over the longer-term outlook for inflation. There are precedents, notably from Japan in the 1990s, for prolonged deflation. But the response from policymakers has been totally different this time, in part because they have the Japanese experience as a recent and painful precedent.

The Federal Reserve is permitting interest rates to go to zero. It is also preparing to buy long-dated Treasuries in a bid to force their yields down still further. This is another big reason to be positive about the near-term prospects for bonds – even the government is trying to help you force the price up.

The problem comes in the longer term. Such aggressive printing of money is intended to create inflation (which will help everyone by reducing the real price of the outstanding debt left by the credit bubble). Buying bonds is intended ultimately to make the yields on bonds so unattractive that investors feel forced to buy something else that is more risky, and that contributes more to the growth of the economy. Either way, the implication of current policy is that at some point before long, deflation will turn to the risk of a severe recurrence of inflation. And bonds, at that point, could fall drastically.

Those who say bonds are in a “bubble” are arguing that policy will successfully create inflation. Bulls on bonds for the longer term are making the extremely pessimistic argument that not even desperate printing of money will raise inflation – which implies a very grim recession.

If this is the debate over the medium term, another question needs to be asked for the short term, about demand for bonds.

Treasury bonds matter because they create a notional “risk-free rate” that is used as the basis for financial models the world over. Banks can treat them as riskless.

The credit bubble happened in large part because banks wanted to try to get higher yields, from securities ultimately backed by mortgages now deemed toxic at what they perceived as only a slightly higher risk.

Now banks are barely solvent. As Kit Juckes, credit strategist at RBS, puts it, they are being lent money for nothing by central banks, and have no desire to take risks, and so their logical response is to buy Treasuries for zero risk. This is a profitable transaction. As longer-dated bonds carry higher yields, they are more attractive, and banks snap them up.

So it is the calculus facing banks that means, to quote Mr Juckes, “that everyone is bearish about government bonds, but seemingly everyone goes out and buys them.”

With the world this weekend in the grip of another panic over the health of its banks, there is no sign that this dynamic will go away. So it is hard to call this a true “bubble”.

But it is also obvious that bonds are vulnerable to a sudden and severe fall in price at some point in the near future, if the highly credible scenario of resurgent inflation plays out. And so we have the paradox that bonds are in a well-established bull market, and yet nobody wants to buy them.

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Cost of debt protection at record levels

By Miles Johnson

Published: January 16 2009 21:08 | Last updated: January 16 2009 21:08

Confidence in the ability of sovereign nations to service national debts was questioned on Friday after the cost of insuring the bonds of some European Union members hit all-time highs.

The price of protecting debt against default by Spain, Germany, Austria, Ireland and Greece jumped after the Irish government’s nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank stoked further fears over the levels of debt EU members are taking on.

“At worst [the nationalisation] could lead to fresh worries about how the Irish economy survives this crisis and how they can service their increasing debt burden,” said Jim Reid, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank. “This is further evidence of the blurring between government and credit risk.”

Credit derivative prices, a form of insurance against bond defaults, are an indicator of how much of a risk companies or countries are judged to be by investors.

It costs €257,000 to insure €10m ($13m) of Ireland’s debt against default for five years, and €146,000 for an equivalent contract written on Austria, says CMA, the credit data group. The cost of protecting Greek debt against default rose to an all-time high of €260,000. The same contract for UK retailer Tesco would cost €122,000. Credit derivatives written on German debt – traditionally viewed as one of the world’s safest assets – were trading yesterday at a record of €54,000 to protect €10m of debt over five years.

“All of these EU countries need money for their stabilisation measures and one of the biggest risks is that they don’t get enough,” said Peter Schaffrik, a rate strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort. “If not enough people show up to the bond auctions the question is, will they be able to get funds? If they don’t then we have a problem.”

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Eni leads push for gas consortium

By Isabel Gorst in Moscow, Chris Bryant in Berlin and Roman Olearchyk in Kiev

Published: January 16 2009 20:30 | Last updated: January 16 2009 20:30

Major European gas companies were scrambling on Friday night to piece together a consortium to help finance natural gas transit across Ukraine, allowing an end to a 10-day cut in Russian gas supplies to Europe.

The consortium, proposed by the Kremlin and championed by Eni, the Italian energy group, will shoulder some of the risk borne by Russia for Ukrainian gas transit and reduce the scope for conflict between the two countries, which has repeatedly threatened supplies to Europe.

If successful, the agreement could set the stage for broader involvement by European companies in Ukrainian transit pipelines, which deliver 20 per cent of the region’s gas. On Friday Ukrainian officials dismissed the plan as a “dead cat”.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, met officials from Eon, Eni and Gaz de France Suez in Berlin on Friday to hammer out terms under which a European consortium will buy so-called technical gas to power turbines on Ukrainian transit pipelines, ensuring the flow of Russian gas to Europe. He estimated the cost of technical gas for the first quarter of this year at $730m (£497m, €555m).

Following talks with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, Mr Putin said it was his understanding that these gas-importing companies had agreed in principle, although “some details still needed to be worked out”.

“We are interested in ensuring our supplies and you are interested that gas arrives,” he said.

However, a spokesman for Eon Ruhrgas told the Financial Times on Friday night that “it had become evident that further talks would be needed”. He was not able to say when these might take place.

Mrs Merkel said it should now be possible for a “test phase” of gas deliveries to begin, which would be overseen by a team of international observers.

The chancellor emphasised that any solution “must be implemented quickly” and warned that Russia and Ukraine risked damaging the trust of their partners if the dispute continued.

Payment for technical gas has been a sticking point in the dispute, with both sides refusing to foot the bill.

Speaking in Moscow on Thursday after a meeting with Mr Putin, Paolo Scaroni, the chief executive of Eni, said the consortium would initially finance technical gas purchases for three months and would be repaid in gas.

The consortium would help “restore the credibility of the gas business” after the worst supply disruptions ever seen in Europe, he said.

The European Union has so far dismissed Russian proposals that Europe should help finance Ukrainian gas transit and imports, although Europe is paying for an international mission to monitor Ukrainian pipelines.

Oksana Reinhardt, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, said the consortium “looks odd in business practice” but was “logical from Putin’s point of view”. Ukraine had historically failed to pay gas debts to Russia and would be unlikely to risk damaging its reputation with Europe in a similar way, she said.

Talks in Berlin took place as the EU prepared for an emergency gas summit in Moscow on Saturday to discuss the crisis. Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukrainian prime minister, will meet Mr Putin in Moscow for gas talks, although it is unclear whether she will attend the summit.

The European Commission pressed for an urgent resolution of the gas crisis on Friday, saying meetings in the coming days offered Russia and the Ukraine “the last and best chance” to demonstrate readiness to resolve the dispute.

Mr Scaroni said Ukrainian pipeline companies might join the consortium, which could eventually include about 10 gas companies.

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Assault nears end as Israel claims success

By Andrew England and Tobias Buck in Jerusalem and Roula,Khalaf in London

Published: January 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 17 2009 02:00

The Israeli government will decide today whether to call off its three-week offensive against the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, with a government spokesman saying last night that "it looks like we achieved what we wanted to achieve".

The security cabinet is expected to meet tonight to decide on an end to the military operation, following a day of frenzied diplomatic activity in Cairo and Washington. "The feeling is that all the pieces in the puzzle are falling into place," the spokesman said, in a reference to US and Egyptian commitments aimed at stopping Hamas from rearming.

However, it was not clear whether Israel would call a unilateral end to the conflict or whether it would cease fire in connection with an Egypt-brokered deal that also includes commitments from Hamas.

A vital piece that Israel wants, in order to show gains from its offensive, fell into place yesterday when its foreign minister signed a memorandum with the US that promises greater international efforts to clamp down on arms smuggling to Hamas long before the weapons reach the Gaza Strip.

Egyptian sources said Israel was expected to make an announcement on a ceasefire from its side and that it was keen not to appear to have made a deal with Hamas. But the sources said Cairo too had"arrangements" that wouldbe made public this weekend.

The Israeli government stressed last night that it would "obviously have the right to respond" if Hamas attacked Israeli forces that had entered the Gaza Strip or if the group fired rockets on nearby Israeli towns.

The Israeli statement was made as Hamas signalled defiance, with Khaled Meshaal, the Damascus-based leader of the Islamist group, warning that it would not accept Israeli conditions for a ceasefire. But Hamas also dispatched representatives to Cairo late yesterday for further negotiation on the Egyptian ceasefire plan.

Speaking at a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders in Qatar, Mr Meshaal repeated Hamas's demands for a full withdrawal of Israeli troops and the immediate reopening of Gaza's borders, ending the territory's blockade.

Israeli leaders, however, insist this will happen only after a mechanism is installed to stop the flow of arms into Gaza through the Egyptian border, and after what one official described as "sustainable quiet".

In the strongest action yet taken by the ever more divided Arab world, Qatar and Mauritania announced at the summit they would suspend political and economic ties with Israel.

Qatar is the only Gulf state to have formal commercial ties with Israel and hosts an Israeli representative office in Doha, while Mauritania is one of just three Arab League members to have full diplomatic relations with the country.

The Doha conference went ahead in spite of resistance from Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the region's heavyweights, and was attended by the leaders of Iran, Sudan, Algeria, Syria and Lebanon.

The tough stance taken at the meeting illustrated how Israel's offensive on Gaza has imperilled the Jewish state's longer-term goal of improving ties in the region and set back any prospects of a broader Arab-Israeli peace process. The attacks have also strained its relations with Turkey. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, said yesterday that Israel should be barred from United Nations headquarters for ignoring a ceasefire resolution.

The body count in Gaza now stands at 1,138 Palestinians and 13 Israelis.

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Two Arab states suspend links with Israel

By Andrew England and Tobias Buck in Jerusalem

Published: January 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 17 2009 02:00

Two Arab states yesterday suspended ties with Israel, as Muslim and Arab officials called for Israeli leaders to be prosecuted for war crimes over the Jewish state's three-week offensive in Gaza.

In the strongest action yet taken by the increasingly divided Arab world, Qatar, which hosted the meeting, and Mauritania announced they would be suspending political and economic ties with Israel.

Qatar is the only Gulf state to have formal commercial ties with Israel and hosts an Israeli representative office in Doha, while Mauritania is one of just three Arab League members to have full diplomatic relations with the country.

The conference went ahead in spite of strong resistance from Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the region's political heavyweights, and was attended by the leaders of Iran, Sudan, Algeria, Syria and Lebanon, as well as Khaled Meshaal, the Damascus-based leader of Hamas.

Mr Meshaal warned that the Islamist group was not ready to accept Israeli conditions for a ceasefire, calling for a full withdrawal of Israeli troops and the immediate reopening of Gaza's borders. Israeli leaders want this to happen only after a mechanism is in place to stop the flow of arms to the Islamist group, and after what one official described as "sustainable quiet".

The Hamas leader said: "Despite all the destruction in Gaza, I assure you: we will not accept Israel's conditions for a ceasefire."

His comments came amid rising Israeli optimism that a diplomatic deal to end the fighting was close. "I hope we are entering the end game and that our goal of sustained and durable quiet in the south [of Israel] is about to be attained," said a government spokesman.

A communiqué released at the end of the Qatar meeting said the leaders would urge an Arab League summit due to be held later this month to halt talks on the 2002 Arab peace initiative, which offers Israel normal relations in return for, among other things, a withdrawal from all lands occupied since 1967. The moves are likely to increase the pressure on Egypt, and may complicate its diplomatic efforts to end the crisis, while providing a significant display of Arab support for Hamas.

Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, did not attend the meeting.

The war on Gaza has exacerbated rifts in the Arab world that have stymied efforts to reconcile and influence rival Palestinian factions, as well as regional efforts to form a common stand against Israel's actions.

So-called Arab moderate states, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have been wary that radical forces in the region, including Syria and Iran, will make political capital out of the crisis as criticism mounts that Arab leaders have failed to act while the body count in Gaza has soared to 1,138 Palestinians and 13 Israelis.

The diplomatic search for a ceasefire appeared to pick up yesterday. Mr Meshaal sent his officials to Cairo for further discussions on an Egyptian ceasefire plan, soon after talks in Egypt between Omar Suleiman, the chief of intelligence, and two top Israeli officials. But the two sides still seemed to be at odds over the question of opening the border crossings, there is also disagreement about how long a ceasefire should last.

A key piece that could facilitate a ceasefire package fell into place yesterday, after Israel signed a memorandum with the US that promises greater international efforts to clamp down on arms smuggling to Hamas long before the weapons reach the Gaza Strip.

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日産、主力車「マーチ」生産をタイに全面移管

　日産自動車は業績の悪化を受け、収益改善に向けたリストラに乗り出す。主力小型車「マーチ」の生産をタイに全面移管して原価を3割削減、円高を活用して日本に輸入する。今後5年間の新型車開発件数も2割削減、来年度の役員報酬も大幅に減らす方針だ。日本車メーカーで主力量販車の生産を海外に全面移管するのは初めて。1ドル＝90円前後の円高と世界的な販売不振を背景に、事業構造を抜本的に転換する。

　日産は現在マーチを追浜工場（神奈川県横須賀市）で全量生産して国内専用車として年4万7000台程度販売している。2010年の全面改良に合わせて国内生産を打ち切り、日本での販売分は全量タイから輸入する。自動車業界では一部車種を海外から輸入するケースはあったが、主力量販車の全面移管は例がない。

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「タミフル」在庫一掃を最優先する、お粗末なわが国の新型インフルエンザ対策

カテゴリ: 医療・健康 : 薬（タミフル、抗うつ剤など） :
執筆者: Yamaoka (11:40 pm)

　一度発生すれば世界中はもちろん、わが国だけでも約３２００万名が発症、内64万名が死亡するとみられる（厚労省予測）新型インフルエンザーーそれだけに、つい先日も政府と愛知県の合同訓練が新聞紙面を飾ったのはご存じの通り（冒頭写真＝「日経」１月13日夕刊）。

　すでに政府は治療薬「タミフル」の備蓄にも乗り出しており、わが国人口の４分の１程度確保。さらに備蓄量を５割にまで増やすとしている。

　こうした現状を見ると、それなりに政府はキチンと対策をやっていると思われるかも知れないが、本紙に告白してくれた、ワクチン研究の第一人者によれば、そんなことはまったくないという。

　タミフル（横左写真）に関しては、本紙も以前、疑問を呈している。タミフルは“予防薬”ではなく、あくまで感染後の“治療薬”に過ぎない。しかも、その効果には疑問があるからだ。ところが、この治療薬を開発したのは米国のバイオ企業で、そこの元会長にして大株主がラムズフェルド元米国防長官（同右写真）という関係から、わが国政府はその在庫を押し付けられた結果ではないのか、という疑惑だ。そして、これに対し、今回の告発者も「その通り」とその疑惑を認めたのだ。

　そして、その専門家の発言がいままで以上に説得力を持つのは、すでにわが国で有望な予防薬の目処が立っているにも拘わらず、それに積極的に取り組んでいないと指摘。

　新型インフルエンザに罹ってからより、予防薬で最初から感染しない方がいいことは、子供だってわかる理屈だ。では、その予防薬とは何なのか？
http://accessjournal.jp/modules/weblog/

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法人登記簿、代表者住所を原則非公開に　政府検討　悪用を懸念

　政府は株式会社などの法人登記簿に記載した代表者の住所について、正当な利用目的がない限り非公開とする制度改正を検討する。登記簿は手数料を払えば閲覧や謄本の取得が可能。経済界から個人情報の悪用を懸念する声があがっており、図書館での公開情報に基づく昨年11月の元厚生次官の襲撃事件なども考慮した。

　全国の法務局が保管する法人登記簿は会社名や所在地、代表者の氏名と住所などを記載。政府内では「会社を被告とする訴訟手続き」などの理由がない限り、住所は非公開とする案を検討している。どういう場合に閲覧を認めるかの制度設計は、法務省や法相の諮問機関である法制審議会などで詰める。早ければ 2009年度の会社法改正も視野におく。

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農業の担い手、希望者が急増　自治体などの相談会盛況

　農林水産業への就業希望者が増えている。製造業を中心に人員削減が相次いでいるのを受け、地方自治体や関係団体による就業相談会が盛況だ。政府・与党内でも農業従事者の高齢化などを踏まえ、農林業を雇用の受け皿にする案が浮上している。求職者と仕事のマッチングが進めば、1次産業の基盤強化や将来の食料自給率向上に結びつく可能性もある。

　愛知県は25日、農林漁業への就業相談会を初めて開く。100人程度の参加を見込み、個別相談に応じる。農業生産法人などから「既に50―60人の求人が集まっている」（農林水産部）。大分県も28日に就農相談会を開く。

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高度専門医療センター、６病院が07年度赤字に

　2010年度に６つの独立行政法人へ移行する予定の国立高度専門医療センター（ナショナルセンター）の病院ごとの財政状況が16日、明らかになった。国の一般会計からの資金援助を除くと、07年度の実質的な経常収支は８病院中、６病院が赤字。独立行政法人化に伴って国からの資金援助が減れば、事業の見直しを迫られる可能性もある。

　国立高度専門医療センターは国立がんセンターや国立循環器病センターなど６つあり、合計８つの病院を運営している。07年度に実質的な赤字幅が大きかった病院は国立成育医療センター（東京・世田谷）で18億円の赤字。国立国際医療センターの戸山病院（同・新宿）も15億円の赤字だった。黒字は国立がんセンターが運営する中央病院（同・中央）と東病院（千葉県柏市）の２つにとどまった。

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伊藤忠都市開発、セコムと高級戸建て　部屋掃除サービス付き

　伊藤忠都市開発はセコムと提携、部屋の掃除や留守宅の郵便物保管などのサービスを組み込んだ高級一戸建てを２月から発売する。伊藤忠都市開発がセコムからサービス利用券を買い取り、無償で一戸建て購入者に提供する。住宅市況の低迷に対応、ブランド力を棄損する可能性のある値引きを避け、顧客サービスを付加することで商品競争力を引き上げる。

　伊藤忠都市開発が組み込むサービスは部屋の掃除、郵便物保管のほか、引っ越し直後の荷物の整理、換気扇やキッチンなどの清掃など。いずれもセコムが専門スタッフを派遣、３年間で15回のサービスを無償で受けられる。第１弾として２月から横浜市で発売する16戸の物件に導入、順次拡大していく計画。

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トヨタ、北米で追加減産　日産２工場は「稼働短縮」継続

　【ニューヨーク＝武類雅典】日本の自動車大手が北米で追加減産に乗り出す。トヨタ自動車は米国とカナダの完成車７工場で１月から４月上旬にかけて生産を休止する日を設ける。一部ラインでは休止日は計30日になる。日産自動車は米国の２工場で１週間に４日だけ操業する体制を継続する。金融危機を機に北米市場は急速に冷え込んでおり、ビッグスリー（米自動車大手３社）に続き、日本勢も大幅な減産で在庫の圧縮を急ぐ。

　トヨタはケンタッキー州やインディアナ州、テキサス州の工場や米ゼネラル・モーターズ（ＧＭ）との合弁会社、ＮＵＭＭＩ（カリフォルニア州）などすべての完成車工場で休止日を設けて減産する。休止日数は各工場によって異なるが、インディアナ工場のうちミニバン「シエナ」の製造ラインは30日間休止する。

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泊原発プルサーマル計画、受け入れ大詰め　年度内に最終判断

　泊原子力発電所（後志管内泊村）で使用済み核燃料を再利用するプルサーマル計画の可否を巡る議論が大詰めを迎えている。実現には道と地元4町村の了承が必要だが、泊村議会は受け入れを決めた。住民らの間には安全性などを疑問視する声が残るものの、道議会でも容認する声が多い。高橋はるみ知事と地元の首長は、今年度中に受け入れを表明する可能性が濃厚だ。

　「ウラン資源を1―2割節約できることで、いったいどれだけの対価があるのか」

　「石炭換算で年50万トンにもなる。メリットは大きい」

　15日、北海道電力の担当者らを呼んで開いた道議会の連合審査会。議論は計画の安全性だけでなく、経済合理性や電気料金に与える影響など、休憩を挟んで約5時間半も続いた。

　昨年4月に道と地元4町村に事前協議を申し入れ、説明会や講演会を重ねてきた北電。佐藤佳孝社長は「理解活動の成果が実を結ぶよう、引き続き努力する」と低姿勢を貫くが、「まな板のコイ」の不安な状況は解消されつつある。

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海賊対策：ソマリア沖海自派遣「見切り発車」へ

　東アフリカ・ソマリア沖の海賊対策をめぐり、政府は当面、３例目となる海上警備行動の発令によって海上自衛隊を派遣することになった。ただ、特定の船、潜水艦の領海侵犯に対応した過去２例とは異なり、今回は遠洋への長期派遣になるのに加え、不特定の海賊から商船を護衛するのが任務。新たな部隊運営を迫られるが、政府・与党の議論は粗いままで、多くの課題を残した「見切り発車」になりそうだ。

　海上警備行動を定めた自衛隊法８２条は、地理的な制約を明記していない。しかし、北朝鮮や中国の領海侵犯への対応を想定してきた防衛省内には「長期の海外派遣を実施するには８２条の条文はスカスカ」（首脳）との違和感が広がっている。

　初の護衛任務、重装備の海賊を相手にする点など、異例ずくめの割に政府・与党内の議論が深まっていないことへの危機感もある。

　インド海軍が昨年、海賊が乗り込んだ漁船を撃沈して人質が死亡したケースをめぐり、与党プロジェクトチームでは「自衛隊法でも可能」と容認する流れが一時でき、自衛官が過剰防衛に問われる恐れがあることを懸念した防衛省が軌道修正をはかる事態も起きた。

　「護衛艦を襲う海賊などいない」との楽観論の下で派遣を急ぐ考えが支配的になっているためとみられるが、浜田靖一防衛相は「あらゆる事態を想定すると簡単にくみすることはできない」と反論し、慎重な態勢整備を求めている。

　一方、海上警備行動の武器使用は、警察官職務執行法に準じて正当防衛と緊急避難に限定される。初の発令となった９９年の能登半島沖の不審船では、海自護衛艦が警告射撃、Ｐ３Ｃ哨戒機が付近に爆弾を投下し、北朝鮮側まで追い出した。０４年の中国の原子力潜水艦の際は領海を出た後の発令で、海自は発砲を回避した。

　０１年１２月、東シナ海で不審船からロケット弾を発射された海上保安庁の巡視船が船体を射撃。不審船が沈没する事件が起きたが、この時は海上警備行動は発令されていない。

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東京都：「環境減税」導入

　東京都は中小企業の省エネや次世代自動車普及のため、０９年度から「環境減税」制度をスタートさせる。中小企業や個人事業者は、省エネ仕様の空調や照明、給湯設備を取得した場合、取得額の５０％（上限１０００万円）を、法人事業税か個人事業税から減免する。０９年度の取り組み実績で判断し、１０年度分から減税する。

　また、電気自動車（ＥＶ）やプラグインハイブリッド車の購入者には、０９年度から自動車税と自動車取得税を全額免除。５年間で１万５０００台の普及を目指し、二酸化炭素（ＣＯ２）の排出量を約２．３万トン削減できる。
　◇一般会計予算案５年ぶり減額に

　東京都は１６日、総額６兆５９８０億円（前年度比３．８％減）となる０９年度一般会計当初予算原案を発表した。急速な景気悪化などで税収入が大幅に落ち込んだ。０４年度以来５年ぶりのマイナス予算となる。

　都税収入は７５２０億円（１３．６％）減の４兆７５７７億円で、減収幅は過去最大。特に法人２税（法人都民税と法人事業税）は７７４３億円（３０．３％）減の１兆７８０５億円と景気悪化が直撃した。地方の税収格差是正のために国が実施した法人事業税の一部国税化による影響も大きく、２６９１億円の減収となった。

　石原慎太郎知事は法人事業税の一部国税化に「恒久化しかねず、阻止しないといけない」と述べ、対抗手段を検討する考えを示した。

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高血圧：正常値でも要注意　学会が新指針

　日本高血圧学会（島本和明理事長）は１６日、標準的な治療方法を示す「高血圧治療ガイドライン（指針）」を５年ぶりに改定した。やや高めだが高血圧の基準に達しない「正常高値」の人でも、糖尿病など他の危険因子があれば、高血圧患者と同様の生活習慣の改善や治療が必要だと指摘。治療対象を事実上広げる判断を示した。

　現在、正常高値は最高血圧１３０～１３９、最低血圧８５～８９と定めている。しかし、最近の研究で、低めの血圧でも脳卒中や心筋梗塞（こうそく）を起こす危険性が高いことが分かり、学会は見直しに着手した。

　新指針によると、若年・中年者（１５～６４歳）の目標血圧は最高１３０、最低８５未満とし、高齢者（６５歳以上）は最高１４０、最低９０未満と設定した。糖尿病や心筋梗塞後の患者では最低血圧が８０未満と厳しい目標にした。

　また、正常高値の人でもメタボリックシンドローム（内臓脂肪症候群）や喫煙など血圧以外の危険因子が１～２個ある人は「中等リスク」と位置付けた。危険因子が３個以上か糖尿病や慢性腎臓病など他の病気がある人は「高リスク」として、すぐに降圧薬による治療が必要だとした。

　一方、医師が測ると高めになる「白衣高血圧」やストレスによる「職場高血圧」などを指摘。家庭で血圧を規則的に測ることが重要だと強調した。家庭血圧計は診察室より低くなるため、目標値は最高、最低血圧とも５ｍｍＨｇずつ低く設定した。朝食前と就寝前の１日２回測り、１週間の平均値で判断する。

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元露鵬＆元白露山訴訟、弁論手続き

　ロシア出身の元露鵬（２８）と元白露山（２６）の兄弟が、解雇を無効として日本相撲協会に力士としての地位確認を求めた訴訟の弁論準備手続きが１６日、東京地裁で開かれた。次回は２月２３日。また、元若ノ鵬が解雇撤回を求める訴訟の次回準備手続きは２月１０日に行われる。