Jim Rogers says pound may approach dollar parity

Jim Rogers says pound may approach dollar parity
Mon Jan 26, 2009 7:49am EST

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, one of the world's best known investors, said on Monday the pound could fall near parity with the dollar in coming years given Britain's increasing debt and lack of economic growth drivers.

Rogers said last week the pound was "finished" and people should avoid investing in Britain, leading to a retort from Prime Minister Gordon Brown that economic policy would not be influenced by speculators.

Sterling weakened against the dollar on Monday to near a 23-year low of $1.3500 reached on Friday.

Asked whether he had a call on where the pound would be by year end Rogers said: "No...I'm a very bad short-term trader.

"I suspect it's going to make new lows -- it may take a decade," he told Reuters. "It's got near parity with the dollar before...why not again?"

Rogers was a co-founder along George Soros of the Quantum Fund, which made more than $1 billion betting against the pound in early 1990s and now is an independent investor based in Singapore.

"There's two big holes developing in the UK's balance of payments -- North Sea oil drying up and the financial industry. I don't see anything replacing those two big holes."

The UK economy shrank at its fastest pace since 1980 in the three months to December. British policymakers seem content to let the pound drop to help exporters and Brown has said the building blocks of recovery are in place.

"I'd like him to explain what they are," Rogers said, adding if this meant bailing out failing banks it would be a disaster, given Japan had tried that in the 1990s and was left struggling to recover with "zombie" banks.

"Take the pain, clean out the assets and start again," Rogers advised. He said joining the euro could make Britain more competitive but he did not have much long-term faith in that currency either. "I expect the euro won't be around in 20 years."

Rogers said he was not short selling the pound and was not picking on the UK. He said the United States and new President Barack Obama were making the same mistakes by bailing out banks.

"Obama has got the wrong plans and the wrong people," said Rogers, reiterating he was only positive on China and commodities.

"I'm not buying stocks anywhere -- the world is in recession and it's not going to get better," he said. "If politicians keep making mistakes it's going to last longer and longer."

---------------------------
View of the Day: Sterling sell off overdone

By Paul Robinson

Published: January 26 2009 15:15 | Last updated: January 26 2009 15:15

The pound has taken a ‘hell of a beating’ but is far from finished, argues Paul Robinson at Barclays Capital.

He says its was not surprising sterling fell last week given the huge amount of negative news surrounding the UK banking system and economy.

“It has been an important, if somewhat depressing, week with a lot of news,” says Mr Robinson. “Overall, the developments have been to the downside for risky assets and the pound, at least in the short run.”

However, he expects the pound to rise significantly in the longer-term.

Government measures to support the UK banking system may well free up bank’s capital, alleviating the credit crunch and leading to a less severe recession in the UK.

Meanwhile, Mr Robinson says, concerns over the UK fiscal position are overdone.

“For all the press reports of fiscal policy being too loose in the UK, the government has gone into the crisis with a debt to GDP ratio that is not especially worrying,” he says. “It is markedly less than the eurozone average and well below that of France and Germany.”

He says not only is the pound undervalued against the euro, but he expects the huge increase in the US fiscal deficit to become an important negative for the dollar in the months ahead.

“Our new forecasts in euro/sterling are for £0.92 and £0.80 in one and twelve months time, respectively, and $1.41 and $1.80 for sterling against the dollar.”

----------------------------------
Bernanke Risks ‘Very Unstable’ Market as He Weighs Buying Bonds
Email | Print | A A A

By Rich Miller

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues may try once again to cure the aftermath of a bubble in one kind of asset by overheating the market for another.

Fed policy makers meeting tomorrow and the day after are exploring the purchase of longer-dated Treasury securities in an effort to push up their price and bring down their yield. Behind the potential move: a desire to reduce long-term borrowing costs at a time when the Fed can’t lower short-term interest rates any further because they are effectively at zero.

The risk is that central bankers will end up distorting the Treasury market, triggering wild swings in prices -- and long-term interest rates -- as investors react to what they say and do. “It sets forth a speculative dynamic that is very unstable,” says William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington.

The Treasury market has “some bubble characteristics,” Bill Gross, the manager of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co.’s $132 billion Total Return Fund, said in December on Bloomberg Television. He echoed that sentiment last week.

“I will say, and I have said for the past three months, the governments are very overvalued,” Gross said in a Jan. 20 interview. Treasuries last year returned 14 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s Treasury Master Index, their best performance since 1995.

Inflated Prices

Recent history shows the economic danger of inflating asset prices. After a stock-market bubble burst in 2000, the Fed slashed interest rates to as low as 1 percent and in the process helped inflate the housing market. The collapse of that bubble is what eventually helped drive the U.S. into the current recession, the worst in a generation.

Faced with the danger of a deflationary decline in output, prices and wages, the Fed is considering steps to revive the moribund economy. On the table besides bond purchases: firming up a pledge to keep short-term interest rates low for an extended period and adopting some type of inflation target to underscore the Fed’s determination to avoid deflation.

The central bank has been buying long-term Treasury debt off and on for years as part of its day-to-day management of reserves in the banking system. Yet it has always gone out of its way to avoid influencing prices. What it’s discussing now, says former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer, is deliberately trying to push long rates below where they otherwise might be.

Fed Purchases

Bernanke raised this possibility in a speech on Dec. 1. While he didn’t specify what maturities the Fed might buy, in the past he has suggested that purchases might include securities with three- to six-year terms.

Investors immediately took notice, with the yield on the 10-year note falling to 2.73 percent from 2.92 percent the day before. Yields fell further on Dec. 16, dropping to 2.26 percent from 2.51 percent the previous day, after the central bank’s policy-making Federal Open Market Committee said it was studying the issue.

“Every time they mention it, the market reacts,” says Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Yields have since risen, with the 10-year note ending last week at 2.62 percent. Behind the reversal: expectations of massive fresh supplies of Treasuries as the government is forced to finance an $825 billion economic-stimulus package and a possible new bank-bailout plan. This week alone, the Treasury is scheduled to auction $135 billion worth of securities.

Jump in Yields

David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch in New York, says the jump in yields may prompt the Fed to go ahead with Treasury purchases.

This isn’t the first time Bernanke and the Fed have discussed buying longer-dated securities and ended up roiling the market. Bernanke touted the idea as a tool to fight deflation in speeches in November 2002 and May 2003.

Egged on by his comments -- and later remarks by then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan that the central bank needed to build a “firewall” against deflation -- many investors became convinced the central bank was poised to buy bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.11 percent in June 2003 from 3.81 percent at the start of the year.

Traders quickly reversed course as it became clear the Fed had no such intentions, sending the 10-year Treasury yield soaring to 4.6 percent just three months later, on Sept. 2.

‘Miscommunication’

Poole, who was then at the St. Louis Fed, was critical at the time of what he called the central bank’s “miscommunication.” He now sees the Fed making the same mistake with its latest suggestions that it might buy longer- dated securities.

“If they do it, it’s going to be disruptive to the market,” says Poole, who is a contributor to Bloomberg News. “If they don’t do it, it will impair the Fed’s credibility and erode the confidence the market has in the statements that the Fed makes.”

Meyer, now vice chairman of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers, says the Fed should, and probably will, go ahead with purchases as a way to lower borrowing costs. “The story is stop talking and start buying,” he says.

Still, he notes that not everyone at the Fed is enthusiastic about the idea. One concern: Foreign central banks and sovereign-wealth funds, which are big holders of Treasuries, might cool to buying many more if they believe prices are artificially high.

Undermine the Dollar

That may undermine the dollar. “There’s no guarantee that international investors would switch to other dollar- denominated debt if flushed from the Treasury market,” says Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Tony Crescenzi, chief bond-market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, says foreign investors might also get spooked if they conclude that the Fed is monetizing the government’s debt -- in effect, printing money -- by buying Treasuries.

Bernanke himself, in his 2003 speech, said monetization of the debt risked faster inflation -- something bond investors, foreign or domestic, wouldn’t like.

Some economists argue the Fed would help the economy more if it bought other types of debt. Even after their recent rise, 10-year Treasury yields are still well below the 4.02 percent level at the start of last year.

Corporate Bonds

Yields on investment-grade corporate bonds, in contrast, stood at 8.24 percent on Jan. 22, the latest date for which information is available, compared with 6.45 percent at the start of 2008, according to data compiled by the Fed.

Hawks at the Fed wouldn’t welcome such purchases. They are already uneasy that some of the central bank’s programs are effectively allocating credit to one part of the economy rather than others. Case in point: the Fed’s ongoing program to buy $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities, which Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, has called “credit policy” rather than monetary policy.

J. Alfred Broaddus Jr., who was Richmond Fed president from 1993 to 2004, says the lesson from the early part of the decade isn’t that the Fed went too far in easing policy to avoid deflation -- it’s that policy makers should have tightened more quickly afterwards and not allowed themselves to be boxed in by their pledge to keep interest rates low for a considerable period.

In the current context, that means buying bonds “is something worth looking at,” he says. Still, the Fed “needs to be careful and be ready to reverse course, especially given all the money that it’s pumped into the system.”

---------------------------
There’s Nothing Swiss Can Do to Stop Franc’s Rise (Update2)
Email | Print | A A A

By Joshua Gallu and Matthew Brown

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Swiss central bankers are on a collision course with foreign-exchange traders, threatening to rein in the franc after the currency rose the most ever against the euro in 2008.

Credit Suisse Group AG predicts the franc will climb 2.6 percent this quarter. BNP Paribas SA, the most accurate currency forecaster in a 2007 Bloomberg survey, and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc say it will rise 4 percent by mid-year --even after Swiss National Bank Vice President Philipp Hildebrand said last week that policy makers may sell “unlimited amounts of francs” to curb the gains.

“The SNB on its own can’t stop it if the market wants to push” the franc higher, said Henrik Gullberg, a strategist in London at Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s largest currency trader. The central bank is probably sending “an early signal” and won’t intervene until the franc strengthens to about 1.4000 per euro, he said. Gullberg predicts 1.4650 by mid-year. The currency was last quoted at 1.5055 versus the euro, from 1.4962 on Jan. 23, and 1.1472 per dollar from 1.1542.

The franc surged 6.1 percent against the dollar and 10.8 percent versus the euro in 2008 as investors sought refuge from the global financial crisis. Switzerland has a trade surplus and doesn’t have to increase debt sales as much as other nations with a deficit. It’s also perceived as a haven from a global slump in equities, which pushed the MSCI World Index of stocks down a record 42 percent last year.

Welcome to Davos

Zurich-based SNB hasn’t intervened in foreign-exchange markets to influence prices by purchasing or selling currencies since the mid-1990s. The last time policy makers from one of the Group of 10 industrialized nations acted to weaken a currency was when the Bank of Japan sold 35.2 trillion yen ($390 billion) in 2003 and 2004. Instead of falling, the yen strengthened about 6 percent against the dollar in the year after sales ended.

Threats to intervene come as SNB President Jean-Pierre Roth prepares to welcome central bankers, political leaders and corporate chiefs to Davos, Switzerland, for discussions on reviving the global economy at the World Economic Forum Jan. 28- Feb. 1.

The worldwide downturn, triggered by a freezing of credit markets that resulted in writedowns and losses at financial companies totaling $1.05 trillion, forced central banks from the U.S. to New Zealand to reduce interest rates. That cut profits in half from so-called carry trades, where investors borrow in countries with low rates and invest in nations with higher borrowing costs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Francs and Japanese yen were among the favorites for traders, who used the currencies to buy New Zealand and Australian dollars with interest rates as much as 7.75 percentage points higher.

Surplus Bonus

Switzerland’s trade surplus, at 8 percent of gross domestic product last year, was also a lure. The U.S., Australia and New Zealand had deficits of 4.9 percent, 5.1 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Trade-surplus countries are perceived as safer because governments don’t have to borrow as much money in a year when sovereign bond sales are likely to exceed $3 trillion.

The franc strengthened against every major currency except the yen in 2008 as investors reduced risks. Gold climbed 5.8 percent and Treasuries earned 8.9 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s Treasury Master Index.

While the franc weakened 0.4 percent against the euro in January, last year’s gains were the most since Europe adopted the common currency in 1999. The 16-nation euro region accounts for more than 50 percent of Swiss exports, making it the country’s main trading partner.

Fighting Deflation

The franc’s rise prompted Hildebrand to say Jan. 21 that officials may intervene to bolster exports and head off deflation. Fellow policy maker Thomas Jordan said Jan. 15 the SNB has “no explicit pain threshold” on the franc as it watches the gains “very closely.”

“Deflation is just as undesirable as inflation,” Hildebrand said in St. Gallen, Switzerland. “In today’s environment, one could ask whether it wouldn’t be better to aim for a higher inflation rate in order to avoid deflation at any cost.” The central bank may set a fixed rate for the currency, he said.

Swiss inflation, which slowed to 0.7 percent last month, may turn negative as soon as the middle of this year as the currency strengthens, the central bank estimates.

A slump in exports, which make up more than half the economy, is being exacerbated by the currency’s gains. Sales abroad fell 11 percent in November and may drop 2.6 percent this year, the government said Dec. 16.

‘Big Problem’

Basel-based Straumann Holding AG, the world’s second-largest dental-implant maker, said Jan. 16 revenue dropped 3 percent in the fourth quarter because of the franc’s strength. On Jan. 20, Dierikon-based Komax Holding AG, the world’s biggest maker of wire-processing machines, blamed foreign-exchange fluctuations for a 2 percent decline in sales in 2008.

“A further appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro is a big problem,” said Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at Economiesuisse, a Zurich-based business-lobby and industry group. “If you see a gradual appreciation during the course of months or years, then companies can adjust. But when the rate jumps sharply in a short time, companies can’t adjust.”

Swings in the franc more than doubled last year. An index of volatility peaked at 19.3 on Oct. 27, when the franc hit 1.44 per euro. The index was at 13.4 at the end of last week and averaged 8.1 over the past 12 months.

Risky Showdown

The franc is rising even as the credit crisis dents earnings at Switzerland’s two largest banks. UBS AG may post a 15.5 billion-franc ($13.4 billion) loss for last year, and Credit Suisse may report a net loss of 4.2 billion francs in the same period, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

A showdown with the SNB may be risky for franc bulls, said Zurich-based UBS, the world’s second-largest currency trader.

“Having a central bank against you can prove costly,” said Reto Huenerwadel, a senior economist in Zurich at UBS. Betting against the SNB is “brave to the degree of being foolhardy,” he said, and predicted the franc will weaken to 1.54 per euro by mid-year.

The SNB may not be able to revive the $416 billion economy just by weakening the franc, according to Claude Maurer, a Zurich-based economist at Credit Suisse.

“People are demanding stimulus programs,” Maurer said. Devaluing the franc “is a logical stimulus for the export industry, but it doesn’t do much when demand is weak.”

‘Double Whammy’

Switzerland’s economy will contract 0.2 percent this year after expanding 1.9 percent in 2008, the OECD said Nov. 25. The euro-region economy will shrink 0.6 percent, compared with 1 percent expansion in 2008, the OECD said.

Policy makers lowered the Swiss three-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, target rate to 0.5 percent on Dec. 11, compared with 2 percent in the euro region, and a benchmark rate of 0.1 percent in Japan. The Federal Reserve maintains a range of zero to 0.25 percent.

“The SNB will be watching the euro-land economy,” said Paul Robson, a Royal Bank of Scotland foreign-exchange strategist in London. “Growth in euro-land is falling off really quickly. You don’t want the double whammy of falling external growth and a strong exchange rate.”

Investors are drawn to the franc in times of international tension and economic upheaval because of the country’s history of neutrality and political stability. The currency surged 3 percent in the 10 days after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the U.S., and more than 1 percent immediately after the Madrid train- station bombings on March 11, 2004.

Bullish Investors

“The franc is always prone to strengthen in crises,” said Janwillem Acket, the chief economist at Bank Julius Baer in Zurich. “It’s going to lose some of its current strength as the crisis calms down.”

Trading in franc options as measured by the so-called risk- reversal rate, an indicator of foreign-exchange market sentiment, shows investors are more bullish on the franc against the euro than any currency except the yen over the next year.

“We’re likely to see further verbal intervention from the Swiss authorities,” said Ian Stannard, a currency strategist in London at BNP Paribas. “I wouldn’t be surprised if they started to step that up. The boy-who-cried-wolf syndrome is one risk. They have used verbal intervention on various occasions without following it up with physical intervention.”

‘More Upside’

The central bank cut its main interest rate four times since early October, reducing it to a four-year low. The franc gained more than 4 percent against the euro even after the rate was reduced to 0.5 percent on Dec. 11.

With rates already near zero, the SNB said it may buy government and corporate bonds or offer cheaper money for longer terms.

The euro fell in two of the past three weeks versus the franc amid concern governments in the 16-nation currency region will increase borrowing to records. Euro nations plan to sell about $1.1 trillion of debt in 2009, according to Royal Bank of Scotland. Switzerland plans to issue about 6 billion francs in bonds this year, compared with 5 billion francs in 2008, according to the SNB.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Swiss bond is forecast to climb to 2.45 percent by mid-year, from 2.17 percent, while the cost of borrowing in the euro region, as measured by the German 10-year yield, will be 2.87 percent, down from 3.24 percent, according to Bloomberg surveys.

“We don’t think the franc’s status as a safe haven is under threat,” said Marcus Hettinger, head of foreign-exchange research in Zurich at Credit Suisse. “We expect more upside for the franc this year. The euro is overvalued.”

---------------------------------
Guantanamo Nomads Find No Welcome in EU Critical of U.S. Base
Email | Print | A A A

By Gregory Viscusi

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Mourad Benchellali spent 2 1/2 years in the U.S. detention camp at Guantanamo Bay. When he was released in 2004 and returned to his native France, he says, he felt little freer.

He was jailed for 18 months. Friends refused to visit because they feared the police were watching. Several jobs fell through when prospective employers found out who he was. Even now, only a few people at the place where he works as a tile-layer know his past.

At least he had somewhere to go: He has French nationality. European leaders, who demanded the closing of Guantanamo, now are struggling over whether to accept non-nationals from the prison who may seek residence following President Barack Obama’s Jan. 22 executive order to shut it down. European Union foreign ministers will discuss the issue today and tomorrow in Brussels.

“The French can’t just criticize Guantanamo, they have to help find a solution,” Benchellali, 27, said over coffee in a Lyon cafe on Jan. 20 as a television in the corner showed Obama’s inauguration. “In some ways I’m angrier with France than with America. The Americans had 9/11, so at least you can understand. The French didn’t have that. Yet they shut us up, sullied our names and gave us no help.”

Among the 245 prisoners still held at the prison in Cuba are about 50 to 60 men the U.S. military has determined don’t constitute a risk but who can’t go back to where they are from. They either fear mistreatment or no longer have family there, lawyers say.

Sealed Cases

They come from such countries as Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and China. Their exact number is unknown because the cases are sealed, said Cori Crider, a lawyer at London-based Reprieve, a nonprofit legal group that represents 30 inmates. They were swept up in Afghanistan and Pakistan by local soldiers and tribesmen after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington and turned over to the U.S. military.

They were in the region to pursue religion or adventure, or to train in militant camps, according to their lawyers.

“It’s in everyone’s interest that Europe helps the Obama administration shut Guantanamo,” said Jennifer Daskel, senior counter-terrorism counsel at New York-based Human Rights Watch. “While the U.S. created the problem and it’s their priority to solve it, Guantanamo has been become everyone’s problem.”

Those with European ties include Nabil Hadjarab, an Algerian who lived in Lyon for six years, as well as 10 former residents of Italy and four with links to the U.K., said Crider.

18 Months in Jail

The U.K. has accepted six nationals and four residents since 2004, all set free upon their return. Germany accepted a German-born Turkish citizen in 2006. France took back seven of its nationals in 2004 and jailed them for 18 months before they were tried. Five, including Benchellali, were convicted for associating with al-Qaeda, given one-year sentences and released for time served. They all denied the charges.

“We keep an eye on them, but there’s been no problem since their releases,” said Frederic Pechenard, director of the National Police in Paris.

As for the non-citizens who will be released under the Obama order, Germany hasn’t decided whether to take any and the Dutch government has refused on the grounds that the U.S. should handle the situation. The British Foreign Office is seeking the return of two residents but won’t comment about other inmates.

Case-by-Case

Portugal, France, and Switzerland have said they might consider taking prisoners on a case-by-case basis, while Italy is open to the idea but wants a common EU position.

European countries have a moral obligation to resettle inmates because they helped the Americans transfer prisoners to Guantanamo and sent intelligence agents to interrogate them, said Omar Deghayes, a Libyan-born British resident who was released in 2007.

“They used us when we were there to question us,” said Deghayes, 39, who volunteers at law firms in London. “How can they not now share the burden? We’re talking just a few people per country.”

The Council of Europe said in 2006 that U.S. authorities used airports in Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece and the Czech Republic to move prisoners between detention centers.

While he was held in Guantanamo, Deghayes said, he was frequently threatened with being sent back to Libya, which his family left for political reasons when he was a child.

Pepper Spray?

He is blind in one eye because, he said, he was sprayed with pepper spray in Guantanamo. Benchellali said he saw other men being beaten and denied medical care for being uncooperative. He still has nightmares, he said.

In 2006, Marine Sergeant Heather Cerveney alleged in an affidavit that during a barroom conversation at Guantanamo, prison guards bragged about beating detainees, denying them water and arbitrarily withholding privileges. An internal investigation found insufficient evidence to substantiate six of the nine allegations, according to a summary on the Web site of the Center for the Study of Human Rights in America.

In a 2007 investigation, Army Colonel Richard Bassett found “no indication of inappropriate procedures or conduct by the guard force” and “insufficient evidence to substantiate the alleged physical abuse or other mistreatment of detainees.”

There are also risks of human rights abuses if inmates are sent to certain countries, said Gilles Kepel, an Arab expert at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris.

‘Chain of Tricks’

“If you return a jihadist to Egypt, the secret services will start by tearing out his fingernails and then move up their chain of tricks,” he said.

Hadjarab, 29, the prisoner who wants to come to France, was raised in Algeria, where his father was an abusive alcoholic, his lawyer Crider said. The only happy period of his life was the six years spent with a foster family near Lyon, before his father took him back. His half-brothers and sisters are French.

He and Benchellali were in adjoining cells at times.

“We used to chat about Lyon,” said Benchellali, who is married and has a 2-year-old son. “His French is much better than his Arabic.”

------------------------------------
Russian Corruption May Fall With Slump in Oil: Chart of the Day

By Emma O’Brien

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Russian corruption may decline this year as the slumping price of oil reduces the amount of “easy” money available to pay bribes, said Evgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist at Troika Dialog in Moscow.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows corruption rises and falls with the price of oil. Russia had its best-ever score on Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index in 2004 when the price of Urals crude, Russia’s chief export blend, averaged $34.18 a barrel. The country received its worst score last year since 2001 when Urals surged to a record $142.94 a barrel and averaged $95.10.

“If money is cheap and easily available, as it is when oil revenues are flowing in, people don’t mind paying bribes,” Gavrilenkov said in an interview from New York. “When the cake is growing everyone wants a bigger piece, but when it’s shrinking, people concentrate more on survival. If you have nothing to pay you don’t pay and that’s what we’re seeing in Russia.”

Russian officials take about $240 billion in bribes a year, based on data from the Prosecutor General’s office in 2006. President Dmitry Medvedev pledged a national plan to combat corruption last July.

Urals crude, Russia’s chief export blend, slumped 68 percent since its all-time high in July to $45.56 a barrel, below the $70 average required to balance this year’s budget, as the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression cut demand. The government expects Urals to trade at an average $41 a barrel this year, Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina said last week. Russia may be in recession, Medvedev’s economic adviser, Arkady Dvorkovich, said in an interview last month.

Berlin-based Transparency International’s annual corruption index ranks countries by their perceived levels of corruption by talking with businesses and officials. The index rates the country on a scale of “highly corrupt” to “highly clean.”

-----------------------------
Bush’s New Dallas Office Makes Neighbors of Pickens, Staubach
Email | Print | A A A

By Darrell Preston

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Former President George W. Bush’s new office makes him neighbors with two long-time Texas businessmen, hedge-fund manager T. Boone Pickens and former Dallas Cowboys quarterback Roger Staubach.

Bush’s work quarters in the Preston Center neighborhood will be a few blocks from the office of Pickens, like Bush a former oilman, who now advocates for alternative energy. Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. is moving its Dallas branch to Preston Center after buying Staubach Co., the real estate firm founded by Staubach, who has been active in Republican Party politics.

The neighborhood is an oasis of office and retail buildings amid residential areas, 5 miles (8 kilometers) north of downtown. Thousands of people work at Preston Center’s energy companies, law firms, shops and restaurants and now face the prospect of bumping into the former U.S. commander-in-chief.

“He will be just another customer, but we’d want to make him feel special like we do with all our customers,” said Pammie Betts, 35, manager of the Starbucks coffee shop four blocks away.

The Bushes are returning to the city they lived in before Bush, 62, a Republican, ran for Texas governor in 1994, unseating Democrat Ann Richards and starting his climb to the presidency. In Dallas, Bush worked in the energy industry and was managing general partner of a group that bought the Texas Rangers baseball team.

Doggone Welcome

“A lot of people are excited to have the Bushes back,” said Marsha Lindsey, 57, owner of Lucky Dog Barkery, which is a half-mile from the office site and sells products for dogs such as the Bushes’ Barney and Miss Beazley. “I’d be thrilled if we could feed their Scotties.”

Later this year, Bush will occupy 8,000 square feet (700 square meters) of space in Sherry Lane Place, a modern, 20-floor building that houses a private dining club. The 10-year lease starts at $38.95 a square foot, the General Services Administration said.

The Sherry Lane lies between the Bushes’ new home in the Preston Hollow neighborhood and the site where his presidential library and museum will be built at Southern Methodist University. The Bushes also have said they will spend time at their Prairie Chapel Ranch in Crawford, 120 miles south.

Pickens, chairman of BP Capital LLC, wasn’t available to comment on Bush’s return to the city, said Jay Rosser, his spokesman. Staubach, now chairman for the Americas at Jones Lang, also wasn’t available, said Brooke Houghton, his spokeswoman.

‘Resilient’ Market

Preston Center’s proximity to affluent residential neighborhoods and easy access to other parts of the city keeps its occupancy rate hovering near 90 percent, said Cliff Cone, a senior vice president for leasing at RM Crowe, a Dallas real estate firm that handles leases in Fidelity Tower.

“It is one of the most resilient real estate markets in Dallas,” he said, even when the economy slows.

The neighborhood is popular with lawyers who don’t want to be downtown, small accounting firms seeking proximity to wealthy clients, and investors who need office space outside their homes, said Larry Denisoff, president of the office division of Weitzman Group, a Dallas real estate firm. Fidelity Investments, TD Ameritrade and E*Trade Financial Corp. have offices in Preston Center.

“You’ve got a lot of very wealthy people who live and work there or nearby,” Denisoff said. “Most of the retail locations stay full all the time, no matter what happens with the rest of the economy.”

Retail and service offerings range from plastic surgery and chiropractic to florist Apples to Zinnias and Bachendorf’s designer jewelry. The half-square-mile neighborhood has some housing, with several luxury condominiums and a Hilton hotel.

Enchilada Access

Bush, who has named Mexican food as his favorite cuisine, may grab some fajitas or quesadillas at Tin Star, Taco Diner or Chipotle Mexican Grill. Einstein Brothers Bagels, Park Cities prime steaks and seafood, and Snuffers hamburgers also are nearby.

Sprinkles Cupcakes would love to serve the former president some of its red velvet cupcakes, its best-seller, said Charles Nelson, founder of the Beverly Hills, California-based chain. It opened a branch in Preston Center two years ago.

“Hopefully we can get the Bushes some special red velvet cupcakes with Ws on them,” Nelson said. “We may have to get some to his Secret Service detail to do that.”

----------------------------------
土壌汚染、地中深くまで　築地市場移転先　都は調査せず（1/2ページ）

2009年1月27日15時2分

　東京都中央区にある築地市場の移転予定地とされる江東区豊洲の土壌汚染が、粘性土層にまで浸透していることがわかった。都はこれまでこの土層について「水をほとんど通さないため、下に向かって汚染が進む可能性は低い」として調査をせず、汚染を認めていたのはこの土層の上の土壌までだった。粘性土層への汚染の発覚で、汚染対策や移転計画の議論に影響を及ぼす可能性がある。

　朝日新聞の取材に対し、都は粘性土層への汚染を認めながらも新たな調査を否定。汚染対策の工法などを近く発表し、１４年度の豊洲での開業を目指す方針を変えていない。

　築地市場の移転先は豊洲地区の埋め立て地。約４０ヘクタールの予定地は東京ガスの工場跡地で、土壌から最大で環境基準の４万３千倍のベンゼンや９３０倍のシアン化合物などが検出され、化学物質による汚染が問題になっている。

　朝日新聞の取材で新たに汚染が確認されたのは有楽町層と呼ばれる沖積層。都は、この地層の上部について「水をほとんど通さない粘性土が連続している不透水層で、汚染が最上部より下に進む可能性は低い」として調べてこなかった。

　ところが、東京ガスが０２年まで実施した汚染状況調査で環境基準を超えるベンゼンなどが検出された地点の深さと、都が想定する粘性土層の最上部の深さなどを比較してみると、複数の地点で最上部より深い位置から汚染物質が検出されていたことが判明。この比較について確認を求めたところ、都も２地点で「粘性土層の最上部より深い位置も汚染されている」と認めた。

　移転予定地の汚染対策を検討するために都が設置した専門家会議は昨年７月、（１）予定地の土壌をガス工場操業時の地表から地下２メートルまですべて入れ替える（２）地下２メートルより下も、さらに下の粘性土層の最上部まで調査して土壌汚染を環境基準以下に処理する、などと提言している。新たに汚染が確認された粘性土層について、都は「今でも汚染の可能性は低いと認識しており、調査するつもりはない。２地点は汚染対策の際に環境基準以下に処理することが考えられる」としている。

　汚染物質をほとんど浸透させないとされる粘性土層について、都は公開された専門家会議や都議会で「予定地全体に連続している」と説明してきたが、粘性土層が確認できなかった地点もあることを公表していなかった。（香川直樹）

　〈ＮＰＯ法人日本地質汚染審査機構理事長を務める楡井久・茨城大名誉教授の話〉　汚染物質が粘性土層上端より下に深く進んでいるか調査することは技術的に可能だ。その必要があるかも含め、都は推進、反対にかかわらず、すべての立場の人に参加してもらい、多くが納得するまで十分に調査結果などのデータを出し、科学的な議論をすべきだ。

----------------------------------
給与カット提案に県職員ら２０００人抗議

　大幅な財源不足を理由に県から給与カットの提案を受けた県職員組合や県教員組合など５組合が２６日、県に抗議する総決起集会を名古屋市中区の名城東小公園で開いた。県内各所から約２０００人が参加した。

　集会では、経過説明に続いて５組合の委員長がそれぞれ決意表明。集会後、組合員らは「生活を直撃する賃金削減を見直せ」「県民、職員に財政難を押し付けるな」などと声を上げ、近くの県庁本庁舎までデモ行進した。５組合によるデモ行進は２０００年１月以来９年ぶり。

　県は今月１６日、給料６％、ボーナス４％の削減を組合に提案。県と組合で交渉を進めており、今月中にも結論が出る見込み。

----------------------------------
ローマ法王、ホロコースト否定の司教破門を撤回

1月27日14時48分配信 CNN.co.jp

エルサレム（CNN）　ローマ法王ベネディクト16世は24日、ナチスドイツ時代のユダヤ人大量虐殺（ホロコースト）を否定する発言をした英国人のリチャード・ウィリアムソン司教らの破門を撤回すると発表した。イスラエルのユダヤ人当局者は、これに強い不快感を示している。

破門を撤回されたのは、聖ピオ十世会所属のウィリアムソン司教ら4人。同司教は先日スウェーデンのテレビ局に対し、ナチスドイツの収容所で死亡したユダヤ人は20─30万人にのぼるものの、ガス室で死んだ者はいないなどと主張した。

ユダヤ人側との連絡を担当するキリスト教一致推進評議会のウォルター・カスパー枢機卿は電話でCNNに対し、「（破門撤回は）法王の決定。自分の意見はあるが、法王の決定にコメントしたくない」と述べた。

聖ピオ十世会は1960年代のバチカン改革に反対したルフェーブル大司教によって設立され、非認可の儀式で4人を聖職に任命。この結果88年、当時のローマ法王ヨハネ・パウロ2世が4人を破門した。

カトリック内部の専門家らの多くは、ベネディクト16世が超保守派との不和修復を図る一方、改革を全面的に容認してきたリベラル派との間に溝を作る危険を冒しているとの見方にある。

--------------------------------
サムスン電子、初の赤字…韓国企業にも需要減直撃

　韓国の主要企業の２００８年１０～１２月期決算が２３日、出そろった。サムスン電子が四半期決算の公表を始めた２０００年以来、初の営業赤字に陥るなど、世界的な景気悪化に伴う需要減に直撃された格好だ。

　サムスン電子の営業赤字は９３７１億ウォン（約５９０億円）、税引き後赤字は２２２億ウォン。主力事業である半導体、液晶パネルの価格急落が響いた。

　ＬＧ電子も液晶パネルや携帯電話の販売低迷で、６７１３億ウォンの税引き後赤字に転落した。現代自動車、ポスコはいずれも黒字を確保したが、現代自は前年同期比で減益、ポスコは７～９月期に比べると減収減益となり、０９年も厳しい経営環境となる見通しだ。

-----------------------------
Obama vows to listen to Muslims

By Edward Luce in Washington

Published: January 27 2009 04:53 | Last updated: January 27 2009 04:53

Barack Obama on Monday night granted an Arabic-language television channel his first formal interview as president – an unprecedented gesture that appeared aimed at offering the Muslim world a sharp contrast with his predecessor, George W. Bush.

Mr Obama, who in his inaugural address last week promised the Muslim world a “new way forward based on mutual respect and mutual interest”, told the Al Arabiya television channel that his administration wanted listen to the Muslim world and re-examine America’s “preconceptions” towards the region.

Mr Obama also went further than he had at any point during the general election in speaking openly about his own personal ties to the Muslim world.

“Now, my job is to communicate the fact that the United States has a stake in the well-being of the Muslim world, that the language we use has to be a language of respect,” he told the Saudi-owned station. “I have Muslim members of my family. I have lived in Muslim countries.”

Mr Obama spent four years of his childhood in Indonesia, which is widely tipped to be the first majority-Muslim country he will visit within his first 100 days in office.

He pledged his strong backing for the peace brokering efforts of George Mitchell, the former Senator, whom he appointed last week as his special envoy for the Israel and Palestine. Mr Mitchell is expected to visit the region within the next few days.

Mr Obama implicitly conceded in the interview that terms such as “war on terror” had proved counter-productive over the last seven years. “The language we use matters,” he said. “We cannot paint with a broad brush a faith as a consequence of the violence that is done in that faith’s name. I cannot respect terrorist organizations that would kill innocent civilians and we will hunt them down. But to the broader Muslim world what we are going to be offering is a hand of friendship.”

Just five days into office, Mr Obama has issued several executive orders declaring an end to torture and closure of Guantanamo Bay among steps including permitting US aid agencies to promote family planning after an eight-year hiatus.

The new president has also appointed envoys to the Middle East and Afghanistan-Pakistan.

In the midst of intense negotiations with Congress to push through an $825bn stimulus package, Mr Obama also on Monday offered a big boost to the environmental lobby by unblocking a Bush-era waiver that allows California and other states to impose higher carbon emission standards on industry.

The interview with Al Arabiya is likely to further antagonise conservative Republican critics of Mr Obama, who have already attacked his move to close Guantanamo within a year.

-----------------------------
German business confidence rebounds

By Gerrit Wiesmann in Frankfurt

Published: January 27 2009 10:47 | Last updated: January 27 2009 10:47

German government plans to prop up Europe’s largest economy with extra public spending appear to have lifted the spirits of the nation’s retailers, leading to an unexpected rise in German business confidence at the start of this year.

The change in mood was a first tentative sign that German policymakers might be right in forecasting a stabilisation of the country’s export-dependent economy – though no resounding rebound - in the second and third quarters 2009.

This could encourage the European Central Bank to hold off for now from further growth boosting rate cuts. The ECB cut rates by 50 basis points to 2 per cent 12 days ago and signalled at the time it may wait until at least March to continue.

The impovement in sentiment helped the euro make gains against the dollar and the yen on currency exchanges across Europe on Tuesday.

The Munich-based Ifo economic research institute on Tuesday said its business-climate index rose to 83 points in January from 82.6 the prior month, surprising most economists, who had expected the global slump to further darken the mood in Germany.

The Ifo institute warned that German manufacturers continued to expect “a very unfavourable business development” - and to plan job cuts - in the coming months as orders for cars or machines from all-important export markets waned.

But the retailers among the 7,000 companies surveyed said their current mood and outlook for the coming months had picked up since December. Even wholesalers and construction companies were slightly less negative about future trends.

Ifo’s announcement came as Chancellor Angela Merkel and her cabinet met to sign off on a second stimulus package, to bolster a more modest first plan and inject an extra €50bn of public money into the economy this year and next.

Economists stressed that the Ifo Index’s first rise for eight months should not be read as proof of economic recovery. But it was an indication that government spending, coupled with an easing of inflation, might rouse private consumption.

Alexander Koch at UniCredit in Munich said, “Today’s end to the free fall in expectations is a strong ray of hope that the vicious circle is broken and that the German economy will manage […] to stabilise in the second half of this year.”

Nick Kounis at Fortis Bank said Ifo data suggested German economic contraction could prove less severe in the first quarter of 2009 than in the Christmas quarter 2008 and “reinforce the ECB’s inclination to pause [rate cutting] in February.”

---------------------------
More woe as 76,000 jobs axed in one day

By FT Reporters

Published: January 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 27 2009 02:00

Corporate bellwethers in the US and Europe slashed more than 76,000 jobs from their payrolls to confront the deepening economic downturn, marking one of the most brutal days yet for workers on both sides of the Atlantic.

US corporate groups such as Caterpillar, General Motors, Sprint Nextel and Home Depot led the retreat, as the domestic recession coupled with tough export markets continued to take a heavy toll on their businesses. Pfizer, the drugs group, added to the tally saying jobs would be lost in its takeover of Wyeth.

Large European companies such as Philips, the Dutch electronics company, financial group ING and the Anglo-Dutch steelmaker Corus, which is owned by India's Tata Group, struck the same downbeat tone as they unveiled plans to axe staff.

In many cases, the cutbacks accompanied disappointing quarterly results or bleak outlooks for 2009, when many of the world's largest economies are expected to be hit by severe downturns.

Raymond Torres, head of the International Labour Organisation's research institute, said employers were shedding workers far more quickly in this recession than in the early 1990s.

"We have a vicious circle of depression, where job losses lead to falling consumption, which lowers industrial confidence, which leads to less investment, which results in more job losses, and so on," he said.

Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of construction equipment, said it would cut 20,000 jobs as it reported fourth-quarter profits more than 32 per cent lower than a year ago and warned earnings would be under pressure in 2009. The news comes a month after the US group slashed executive salaries by up to half and cut jobs at large plants.

Sprint Nextel, the US mobile-phone operator, is to cut 8,000 jobs, or 14 per cent of its workforce, while DIY retailer Home Depot is shedding 7,000 posts and freezing salaries as it battles a consumer slowdown in the US.

Pfizer said 19,500 people would lose their jobs after its takeover of US rival Wyeth, while General Motors, the troubled carmaker, announced 2,000 job losses at two plants in Michigan. After the US markets closed, chipmaker Texas Instruments eliminated 3,400 positions. The news in the US came after ING said it would axe 7,000 of its 130,000 global staff and Philips announced the loss of 6,000 jobs as it accelerated restructuring plans.

Corus, Britain's largest steelmaker, announced cuts of 3,500 from its global workforce of 41,000, with more than 2,000 jobs to go in the UK where it employs 20,000.

--------------------------------
US sets out Tehran strategy

By Harvey Morris

Published: January 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 27 2009 02:00

President Barack Obama's administration is looking forward to "vigorous diplomacy" with Iran over its nuclear programme, Susan Rice, US envoy to the United Nations, said yesterday.

Speaking to reporters on her first working day at UN headquarters, Ms Rice said: "We remain deeply concerned about the threat that Iran's nuclear programme poses to the region, indeed to the United States and the entire international community."

She said the US strategy would involve direct diplomacy with Iran and continued collaboration with other permanent members of the Security Council and Germany.

-------------------------
India's import swing raises concerns of a sugar rush

By Javier Blas

Published: January 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 27 2009 02:00

Any day now the sugar market will receive the answer to an eagerly awaited piece of news: is India, the world's largest consumer, going to have to tap the import market this year to compensate for a large drop in domestic production?

If New Delhi gives the green light to overseas purchases, prices are likely to rally, traders say.

Bullish sentiment has already filtered into the market, bringing speculative investors to what is usually a dull market handled by merchant and brokerage houses. New York-based raw sugar futures, the world's benchmark, yesterday rose to a two-month high of 13.05 cents per pound, up 10.5 per cent from the end of last year.

It is not a new market for the speculators. Investors were also attracted to the sweetener last year, with good results: prices rose 9.1 per cent in 2008, one of the few commodities to post an annual increase. Speculators - and some merchants - believe that this year will produce a similar result, as a large drop in Indian sugar production triggers the first annual supply deficit since 2006, when prices hit a 25-year high.

As the world's largest consumer and second largest producer, India's output swings, which move the country back and forth from exporter to importer, are a key factor in the world's sugar market. Sharad Pawar, India's farm minister, said his country's sugar output could drop to 18m tonnes in the 2008-09 season, down 31 per cent from about 26m tonnes a year earlier.

The drop in India's output, together with lower production in Pakistan, Iran and the European Union, will push the world's sugar output to about 158.7m tonnes for the 2008-09 season, which runs from October to September, down from 166.5m tonnes last season, according to the US Department of Agriculture. With global demand at 162.1m tonnes, the market will face its first deficit in three years.

"We need to fill that hole and that is the reason people are bullish," says Jonathan Kingsman, managing director of Lausanne-based sugar consultancy Kingsman.

The bulls believe India's drop in production will force the country back into the import market, pushing raw sugar futures as high as 15 cents per pound.

"The lower crops are already changing the shape of the physical market," says Toby Cohen, director at London-based merchants Czarnikow. "India is now an importer," he says. He also notes that the European Union will see imports of about 3m tonnes as the impact of the sugar reform - which in 2006 sharply lowered domestic prices to reduce the output of heavily subsidised local sugar beet - takes its toll in production.

"These two changes in trade patterns are extremely significant for global sugar prices," Mr Cohen adds. "Sugar prices could be set to rise."

The bulls have a problem, however. New Delhi has yet to approve duty-free sugar imports, although it has said it is considering such a move as soon as this week as the government battles to avoid raising prices ahead of national elections in May. India levies a 60 per cent duty on imported sugar for domestic sale.

But even if India goes ahead, some traders believe that talk of large imports is overblown. David Sadler, head of sugar trading at Sucden Financial, the London-based commodities house, says New Delhi could purchase as little as 200,000 tonnes overseas. "I will not get too excited about India's imports," he says.

Traders believe that if India does not authorise imports soon, prices will fall, potentially testing the 10 cents level. But if the green light arrives, signalling that New Delhi is concerned about domestic supplies, a rally to 15 cents is likely and prices could rise further if the spike attracts the attention of hedge funds.

The bulls face other obstacles. The principal one is the looming record sugar cane crop in central-southern Brazil, which combined with low oil prices could boost the production of sugar at the expense of ethanol.

In recent years, the Brazilian industry has diverted an increasing share of sugar cane towards ethanol production due to strong domestic demand, high oil and ethanol prices and less attractive sugar prices. Approximately 60 per cent of the cane was used for fuel last season. But some traders think that could be partially reversed this year because of low ethanol and oil prices, encouraging sugar cane processors to boost sugar output.

Hussein Allidina, head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley in New York, says low crude oil prices could force the Brazilian government to cut the local price of petrol, further dampening demand for cane-based ethanol.

"That is a risk for sugar prices," Mr Allidina says.

The other obstacle for the bulls is demand. Sugar consumption has been traditionally resilient during economic recessions and Leonardo Bichara, an economist at the International Sugar Organisation in London, predicts consumption will grow again this season by about 2.0-.25 per cent, similar to previous years, bucking the economic crisis. "This is the bullish element," he says.

But as the global economic downturn deepens and income growth slows, the bears' argument that sugar consumption will join other commodities and see a drop in demand is gaining ground. That is likely to act as a restraint on further price increases.

------------------------------
Worries weigh on Saudi banks

By Abeer Allam

Published: January 26 2009 16:15 | Last updated: January 26 2009 16:15

Fourth quarter profits of $380m might be something to be celebrated – particularly given the state of the global economy. But Al-Rajhi Bank, the Gulf’s biggest bank, said last week that its profits of SR1.4bn had been depressed by higher provisions and were almost 10 per cent lower than a year earlier.

At the same time, Samba Financial Group, another prominent Saudi bank, reported a 13.5 per cent decrease in fourth quarter earnings.

In October, as global recession loomed and credit from international banks dried up, the Saudi government injected $3bn into banks to finance private sector projects and help the lenders cope with a tightening local currency money market. It has also twice dropped reserve requirements on demand deposits to 7 per cent.

But that has done little to shore up confidence among businessmen worried about the impact of a drop in oil prices. These have plunged by more than $100 a barrel from a peak of $147 in July.

As a result, analysts predict growth in the Gulf’s biggest economy will slow to about 2 per cent this year from 4.2 per cent last year.

Last week, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency reduced its benchmark repurchase rate for the fourth time since October by half a percentage point to 2 per cent to boost liquidity and encourage corporate lending.

Constantinos Kypreos, senior analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, says that the Saudi banks will be affected by the current market conditions – in terms of higher costs of funding, lower brokerage fee income, slower credit growth and potentially higher provision charges. “We would expect some deterioration in asset quality and higher loan loss provision charges during 2009 ... However, in terms of bank ratings, these currently incorporate expectations of some deterioration in asset quality,” he says.

Projects worth an estimated $600bn have been announced during the past two years in the hope that the private sector will drive the economy. But about $26bn worth of industrial infrastructure projects have either been cancelled or put on hold, according to Samba.

The situation has deteriorated into a vicious circle. The SAMA wants banks to keep lending, but in the face of global uncertainty they are more reluctant to extend loans to the private sector, imposing tougher terms and higher fees and demanding more guarantees.

Bankers also complain that SAMA regulations, such as requiring banks to maintain an asset to deposit ratio of 85 per cent, mean even less credit is available for loans. The SAMA insists that such a conservative policy has helped the country avoid the worst of global financial meltdown.

“The problem is the general negative mood and the lack of confidence because of the global situation,” says Hisham Tuffaha, analyst at Basheer Investment Group. “Most banks have no problem lending with the current reserve rate as demand liquidity and money supply are up. But each bank prefers to wait and see.’’

Banks are also facing another challenge that will reflect on their profitability: late payments on consumer loans have risen by 24 per cent compared to a year earlier, bankers say.

To maintain profitability, some banks are also said to be considering the closure of branches, laying off staff or not renewing contracts for the highest-paid professionals, mostly foreigners, because Saudi labour laws make it difficult to fire nationals.

Last month, Fitch downgraded the individual rating of eight Saudi banks, including National Commercial Bank, Samba and Saudi British Bank. Yet the agency said Saudi Arabia remains the region’s strongest banking sector with a Fitch Banking System Indicator of “B”.

“Compared to other countries, Saudi banks show resilience,’’ says Mr Kypreos of Moody’s. He adds that the SAMA’s supervision, low exposure to risky investments such as hedge funds and collateralised debt obligations helped insulate the financial sector.

In an effort to bolster the economy, Saudi Arabia announced in December its biggest budget ever, allocating SR475bn for 2009, compared with SR410bn for the fiscal year 2008.

Without big government spending, bank profitability could have dropped further, according to John Sfakianakis, chief economist at SABB, the Saudi affiliate of HSBC.

While 2009 will be a tougher year for Saudi banks, they are still likely to outperform global financial institutions hit by writedowns and losses, bankers and economists say.

“Banks will have a difficult year going ahead because the whole economy is slowing down and the private sector is slowing down,’’ Mr Sfakianakis says.

“They will still be profitable but less profitable than 2008 and 2007. But at least they will not be announcing losses like banks overseas.”

-------------------------------
Rohm & Haas asks court to enforce Dow deal

By Francesco Guerrera and Julie MacIntosh in New York

Published: January 26 2009 14:36 | Last updated: January 26 2009 18:54

Dow Chemical’s planned $15bn takeover of Rohm & Haas, its US rival, was in jeopardy Monday after the group said it did not have the funds to close the deal, triggering an immediate lawsuit from its target.

Rohm & Haas, a large speciality chemicals producer, asked a Delaware court to enforce the transaction at the original price of $78 per share.

In the lawsuit, the company accused Andrew Liveris, Dow’s chief executive, of “improperly” asking the Federal Trade Commission, the US antitrust regulator, to delay its clearance of the deal in order to buy more time.

Dow rejected the allegation and said the discussions were “completely consistent” with its duty to gain approval for the deal.

The FTC cleared the takeover on Friday, forcing Dow to complete the deal, which also includes $3.7bn in Rohm & Haas’s debt, within two business days.

Dow said Monday it would fail to meet that deadline owing to “unacceptable uncertainties on the funding and economics of the combined enterprise”.

Dow has been scrambling to finance the transaction, which is crucial to its strategy of focusing on high-margin chemicals, since the last-minute collapse of a $17.4bn plastics joint venture with Kuwait’s state-owned oil group last month.

Dow has the option of tapping a $13bn one-year bridge loan as well as $4bn in financing from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Kuwait’s sovereign wealth fund.

However, using the high-interest bridge loan would burden the company with too much debt and almost certainly trigger a credit downgrade, people close to the company said.

Dow could also cut its dividend, saving more than $1bn that could be used to pay the interest or part of the principal on the bridge loan.

However, Mr Liveris has repeatedly pledged not to reduce the payout, which has not been cut since 1912.

Investors, who have seen shares prices in the two companies tumble since the deal was proposed in July, said the take-over could still be revived.

They added that completion of the deal could hinge on Dow’s willingness to cut its dividend or use the loan or Rohm & Haas’s appetite for lowering the price or accepting stock as payment.

According to the Rohm & Haas lawsuit, Mr Liveris last week met Raj Gupta, his Rohm & Haas counterpart, and asked for a delay in the completion of the deal until June. Rohm & Haas refused after Mr Liveris could not commit to close the trans­action at that time, the document claims.

--------------------------------
Norway uses oil wealth for stimulus

By David Ibison

Published: January 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 27 2009 02:00

Norway announced a NKr20bn fiscal stimulus package yesterday, with the country starting to use its oil wealth to boost growth and employment in a struggling economy, writes David Ibison in Stockholm .

The Nordic state of 4.7m has amassed $370bn (€282bn, £266bn) in oil revenues - the world's second-largest sovereign wealth fund after Abu Dhabi. The spending package comes on top of a previously announced expansionary budget that was equivalent to 0.7 per cent of gross domestic product and takes total government spending on the crisis to 2.3 per cent of GDP - one of the most aggressive spending plans in Europe.

Kristin Halvorsen, finance minister, said: "This is the most ambitious fiscal stimulus proposed in more than 30 years to boost growth and employment."

The new funds will be used mainly for traditional Keynesian pump-priming rather than tax cuts, with NKr16.75bn ($2.5bn, €1.9bn, £1.8bn) allocated to public building works, schools and infrastructure and NKr3.25bn in tax relief.

The Norwegian government uses its oil revenues to finance its non-oil budget deficit and invests the rest overseas via the Global Pension Fund, or Oil Fund.

The terms of the fund restrict the amount that the government can spend, stating that "over time, the non-oil budget deficit does not exceed the expected real rate of return of the fund, estimated at 4 per cent". But the government has considerable flexibility to support growth, as the fund's guidelines "allow fiscal policy to be used actively to counter fluctuations in economic activity".

The government has used less than the permitted 4 per cent in recent years, meaning it is now free to breach this guideline and ensure that it does not spend more than the designated long-term average.

-----------------------------------
Off the fairway

By Deborah Brewster, Joanna Chung, Scheherazade Daneshkhu, David Gelles, Jeremy Grant, Peggy Hollinger, Victor Mallet, Brooke Masters, Stanley Pignal and Haig Simonian

Published: January 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 27 2009 02:00

At the Interbourse golf tournament held last May at Cabo San Lucas on the tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula, some participants suspected something amiss with Bernard Madoff.

It was not that the traders and financiers present were worried about the feted New York broker's 200-person market-making firm, which usually sponsored one of the dinners at the annual gathering. Equally, the decades of stellar returns produced by his money management arm drew envy rather than concern.

No, what bothered some participants about the former Nasdaq chairman was his golf handicap. They suspected he had understated his skill to boost his chances of winning a prize. "It makes a difference if your handicap is the right or wrong one. I always had the impression that he was playing off a 14 or a 15," says one who took part. But Mr Madoff's score on the Golf Handicap and Information Network was 9.8, leading the fellow player to infer that the broker was better at the game than he told the organisers.

"He wasn't altogether straightforward," the participant says.

Seven months later, Mr Madoff was accused by US prosecutors of running the world's biggest Ponzi scheme - a pyramid set-up that survived by using money from new investors to pay off earlier backers. He has allegedly confessed that his investment business, which drew money from all over the world, was "all one big lie" that may have cost investors $50bn (£36bn, €39bn). Prosecutors and the US Securities and Exchange Commission are combing through the books of Bernard L.*Madoff Investment Securities and a court-appointed trustee is trying to track down what happened to the cash.

As Mr Madoff sits under house arrest in his Manhattan penthouse, the Financial Times has reconstructed the last year of his operation through interviews with dozens of his friends, colleagues and investors, most of whom do not wish to be named. They suggest he was endeavouring to keep up appearances, making the usual rounds of charity dinners, sporting events and industry gatherings and taking his regular summer vacation in the south of France. His family raised $151,000 for a leukaemia charity in October and he attended his company Christmas party hours before his arrest.

But beneath the surface, he and the dozens of hedge funds that sent him cash were growing increasingly strapped. For years, they had recruited new money with ease, thanks to an aura of exclusivity and Mr Madoff's extraordinarily steady reported returns. In past years, would-be investors were often told the shop was closed to new money and they would have to wait before they could buy in. That changed. The credit crunch not only dried up new investment but also prompted many long-time clients to ask for some or all of their money back.

Authorities say this is what proved fatal; pyramid schemes collapse when the cash flow stops. Indeed, an examination of Mr Madoff's 2008 activities reveals a desperate scramble for cash to keep the wheels spinning, before the alleged admission that he could not.

The scale of the losses is staggering. The trustee, Irving Picard, has mailed out more than 8,000 customer claim forms. A list compiled by Bloomberg suggests Madoff investors thought they had more than $41bn with the firm, although that may double-count investors and the funds they used.

While most financial frauds are confined to individual social groups or neighbourhoods, Mr Madoff stands accused of running the world's first truly global Ponzi scheme. His early money came from Jewish charities and communities in New York and Palm Beach, earning him the nickname "the Jewish T-bill". But by the mid-2000s, so-called feeder funds that supplied Mr Madoff were tapping deep - and not so deep - pockets all over Europe and Latin America. Seventeen funds in Luxembourg alone have halted redemptions due to Madoff-related losses.

Victims appear to include a remarkably wide range of people from Kevin Bacon, the US actor, to Liliane Bettencourt, the French heiress, along with a Hong Kong fisherman, a Spanish teacher and Mr Madoff's own relatives. "There were no barriers to protect anyone from the wrath of Bernie," says one American who was close to the Madoff family for years and had, so he thought, about $600,000 invested.

The year 2008 started as the previous one had, with a quarterly report to the SEC. Mr Madoff told the US regulator that his investment management arm held 443 different investments totalling $17bn. Many Madoff boosters believed the filing understated his total holdings because he supposedly moved into cash before reporting periods to avoid giving clues to his vaunted "split-strike conversion strategy".

Its reported funds under management put the firm among the top 5 per cent of the 11,274 investment managers then registered with the SEC. But filing triggered no regulatory alarm bells. The SEC had inspected the Madoff firm in 2005 and briefly investigated him in 2007, yet neither that visit nor an attempt by Harry Markopoulos, a would-be whistleblower, to interest Jonathan Sokobin, the SEC's new head of risk assessment, went anywhere. Mr Markopoulos, a former industry rival, had repeatedly tried to warn regulators of his suspicions that Mr Madoff was conducting a Ponzi scheme.

Mr Madoff did miss the Interbourse ski tournament in January - the winter version of the golf outing. He and his firm had been prominent sponsors in prior years, paying up to $15,000 to host the captains' dinner and hobnob with European money managers. But one participant says his absence was put down to differences with that year's French organisers rather than any larger problem.

Performance records of the European funds that sent money to Mr Madoff were meanwhile attracting attention - and money - from hundreds of ordinary retail investors. Among them was a Parisian property developer who asks to be identified as Pierre. Last February, he was simply looking for a place to park €600,000 he had raised from a property sale and chanced on the UBS-run Luxalpha fund while trawling the Morningstar internet aggregator. "I am normally very careful. I have never bought shares in my life," he says.

But Luxalpha was listed as 80 per cent bonds and a relatively low-risk solid performer. He phoned UBS Luxembourg's investor services and ended up putting the money into a sister fund called the Luxembourg Investment fund. He had never heard of Mr Madoff.

Spring passed uneventfully. Mr Madoff made the rounds of board meetings at New York's Yeshiva University and the other charities he supported, attracting no more attention than before. Two fellow trustees of an educational institution where he sat on the board say they had long had reservations about his reported returns. However, they did not speak up and made no effort to prevent the school from investing with him.

"I thought he might be front-running [a form of insider dealing involving trades placed right before big orders] or something dubious like that - I never would have thought he was just inventing the whole thing," says one.

Another charity was luckier. When a hedge fund manager joined its board last spring, he was instantly sceptical of the returns Mr Madoff had produced and asked his own staff to try and replicate the strategy, according to an industry colleague who was told about it at the time. When they could not, he convinced his fellow trustees to pull the charity's money out.

After the May golf, Mr Madoff and his wife went to Port Gallice in the south of France, where he owned a yacht called Bull and regularly holidayed (and acquired a reputation among fellow luxury boat-owners for ill-humour, given to snapping at children). He bumped into Arki Busson, a London hedge fund manager, while collecting his luggage at Nice airport. "It was 'hi, bye'," Mr Busson says, adding that he gained no impression anything was wrong. EIM, Mr Busson's fund, had about $230m invested with him. Mr Madoff also made the rounds at the US Open tennis tournament, held every August in Queens, and was introduced to one former tennis star with the words: "This guy is a miracle worker."

Behind the scenes, Mr Madoff was trying to drum up money. In late summer, word circulated that he was ready to take in more cash, prompting one long-standing investor to set up a new feeder fund, Kallisto. "He had an outflow of money and he needed more cash," says the investor, who first invested his own money with him 18 years ago. "I went to see him on October 2 and I said, 'If I wanted $25m-$50m could I get it?' and he said 'sure'."

Kallisto began early discussions with potential investors but, according to two people involved, its launch was conditional on due diligence being done on Mr Madoff's back office, which had not occurred before the arrest.

The search for cash grew intense in October and November. Ezra Merkin, a money manager, met New York University's chief investment officer and suggested the school start sending money to a Madoff feeder fund. When the school turned him down because of a lack of oversight, Mr Merkin did not say he had already invested nearly $25m of NYU's money with Mr Madoff, according to a lawsuit filed by the university in the US federal court against Mr Merkin.

On November 12, Mr Madoff ordered his London business to wire $150m to New York, ostensibly to buy Treasury bills, and made a series of personal pitches. Among those he contacted were Ken Langone, founder of Invemed investment bank, who turned Mr Madoff down, and Carl Shapiro, the Boston philanthropist and longtime Madoff backer, who sent an additional $250m.

But the new money could not compensate for the funds that were flowing out. Some hedge funds needed cash to meet redemptions demanded by their investors. Others were concerned about the proportion of their money in Mr Madoff's hands. Union Bancaire Privée pulled out $200m shortly before the collapse and Santander, the Spanish bank, sent Rodrigo Echenique, a director, to meet Mr Madoff in late November.

Individual investors were also trying to get out, sometimes with limited success. When one sought to pull money out of Luxalpha, the fund set up by UBS, he got a call from an intermediary trying to talk him out of it.

By early last month Mr Madoff had hit the wall, allegedly telling one of his two sons that he had received requests for $7bn in redemptions and was having trouble finding enough money, according to the government's criminal complaint. On December 9 he told the other son he wanted to pay employees their bonuses two months earlier than normal. When the sons, Andrew and Mark, compared notes they decided to confront their father.

The next day, the two challenged Mr Madoff at the office but he asked to meet them later at his Manhattan apartment because "he wasn't sure he would be able to hold it together". Neither Andrew nor Mark put in an appearance at the Madoff firms' Christmas party at the First Avenue branch of Rosa Mexicana that night, but Bernie Madoff did. He left at 7.45pm, according to one attendee.

At the apartment with his sons, Mr Madoff broke down and allegedly confessed, saying he had "nothing" and was "absolutely finished", the complaint says. The losses, he added, would be as much as $50bn. He was going to turn himself in, he said, but first he wanted to use the $200m-$300m he had left to make payments to his family, employees and friends.

The sons called a lawyer, who alerted federal authorities.

The SEC went into overdrive, putting more than a dozen employees on the case and drawing up documents to seek an emergency asset freeze. But even they did not quite understand the magnitude of what they were dealing with. "Is that a typo?" one official asked. "Isn't that number meant to be $50m?"

Federal authorities took over Mr Madoff's office in the Lipstick building on Third Avenue. They found in his desk $173m in signed cheques ready to be sent. Mr Madoff was interviewed at home. He was wearing his bathrobe and slippers when the agents arrived.

"There is no innocent explanation," he allegedly told the agents. He had "paid investors with money that wasn't there".

When Pierre, the housebuilder, heard about Mr Madoff's arrest he laughed, saying: "I knew I had not invested in these funds." A few days later, his account adviser discovered that the fund was indeed invested with Mr Madoff. The Frenchman is now among those preparing legal action.

Madoff's methods

A case of missing counterparties

Optimal, the investment arm of Spain's Santander, summed up many investors' views of Bernard Madoff when, just weeks before his arrest, it told clients of his "impeccable" timing.

Mr Madoff's returns appeared to many to be too good to be true (see chart). But advocates claimed they were the result of a "split-strike conversion strategy" that used derivatives to minimise risk, while intelligence from his market-making business allowed him to time investments almost perfectly.

Several investors believed he might be front-running - illegally trading ahead of customers of the market-making division - but many stayed with him anyway. "He had a clean record from the SEC and it wasn't our job to spot this," says one. Some funds offered a more complex explanation. Split-strike conversion enabled him to profit from periods of rising share prices by setting up what was called a "bull spread". This involved buying shares in 40-50 companies to mimic the blue chip S&P 100 index, while using put options to protect against falls. The cost of these options was covered by selling call options, limiting the potential upside.

"The fund alternates between periods of investment in the strategy and periods of non-investment awaiting the next implementation cycle," Fairfield Greenwich said in marketing its $7.3bn Fairfield Sentry fund, which invested with Mr Madoff.

Mr Madoff claimed to have more than a dozen counterparties for these trades, according to an Optimal marketing document. Another client says he was told options were traded with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

In the event, Mr Madoff may have made no trades at all. Finra, the industry regulator, has found no evidence that his brokerage traded on behalf of his investment management clients, while Morgan Stanley and Goldman sources say they never did business with him.

The fallout

Losers litigate

The arrest of Bernard Madoff has sparked an international legal feeding frenzy.

US class action lawyers have already filed lawsuits against Mr Madoff and a clutch of investment managers that channelled money to him. UBS's Luxembourg arm has been ordered to turn money over to investors who sought to redeem from the Luxalpha feeder fund just before the arrest.

Two Irish investment companies have filed suits against HSBC, which served as custodian for Madoff feeder funds, and lawyers in both the UK and Spain say they are giving advice to investors about lawsuits there.

Additional reporting by Jeremy Grant, Joanna Chung, Peggy Hollinger, Scheherazade Daneshkhu, Victor Mallet, David Gelles, Deborah Brewster, Haig Simonian and Stanley Pignal

-----------------------------
Sarkozy ready to do battle with his French champions

By Paul Betts and Andrew Hill

Published: January 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 27 2009 02:00

From the beginning, two of President Nicolas Sarkozy's pet industrial projects have involved bolstering the French defence sector and the country's leadership in nuclear energy. Unlike his predecessors, who championed forging closer industrial links with Germany, Mr Sarkozy seems to have long concluded the best way forward was for France to go it alone - especially in defence and nuclear energy.

EADS, the Franco-German aerospace and defence group, was supposed to create a European champion to compete against Boeing. But if EADS has shown one thing, it is the difficulty for Paris and Berlin to co-operate in what both consider strategic industries. When EADS tried to acquire the French defence electronics group Thales, the Germans blocked the deal, fearing it would shift the group's centre of gravity too much in France's favour. Subsequent infighting and scandal in the French EADS camp enabled the Germans to gain an upper hand in Airbus, the EADS civil aircraft subsidiary.

Germany's influence at Airbus seems to have persuaded Mr Sarkozy that France needed to consolidate its defence sector rather than pursue the unworkable dream of German co-operation. With the beleaguered Alcatel-Lucent telecoms equipment group finally deciding to shed its core stake in Thales, Mr Sarkozy jumped on the opportunity to orchestrate a little French defence Meccano. Dassault, the maker of France's Rafale military jets, is buying the Alcatel-Lucent stake to become, along with the government, the core shareholder of Thales, thus creating a new French defence champion.

Now it is the turn of Siemens to pull out of two decades of efforts to co-operate with the French nuclear industry. The German group has decided to sell its 34 per cent stake in the joint engineering venture it had established with Areva, the French state-owned nuclear group. In so doing, it has cleared the way for Mr Sarkozy's plan to bring closer together Areva and Alstom, the French heavy engineering conglomerate he helped rescue a few years ago, to create a dominant nuclear energy group.

Siemens had also tried and failed to take over Alstom when the French group was on the brink of collapse.

Anne Lauvergeon, Areva's chief executive, has since been fiercely resisting both Alstom's and Mr Sarkozy's designs on her group. She is lobbying the French oil group Total to step in and rescue her from the clutches of Alstom's chief executive, Patrick Kron. Total has said it wants to expand in the nuclear sector, but so far has shown a preference for dealing with GDF-Suez. Since Alstom's core industrial shareholder is none other that Bouygues, whose chairman is a chum of President Sarkozy, the writing seems to be on the wall.

Testing times at Wolseley

If the market awarded points for cool under fire, Chip Hornsby and Steve Webster - respectively chief executive and chief financial officer of Wolseley, the building material company - would be top of the British blue-chip class. But there's a nagging feeling the executive team should start concentrating less on how the FTSE 100 company might eventually thrive and more on how to survive.

Wolseley's exposure to the US housing market means its top executives have been talking about the coming downturn for longer than most UK-based companies. They warned in 2006 about the weakening market and falling lumber prices. At the time, it was natural for a company of the scale, geographical breadth and financial strength of Wolseley to construe this more as an opportunity than a challenge.

The list of actions taken looks impressive. Just over the past six months, it has sliced more than 10 per cent of its workforce, on top of previous job cuts, and initiated cost savings that will amount to £237m on an annualised basis. Mr Webster has quickly thrown up a palisade to protect the group from more damage from sterling's downward spiral, which had an unexpectedly severe £557m ($775m) impact on net debt as measured on December 31.

Arch-critics believe Wolseley's board was too proud to cut its final dividend - action finally taken last July, only three or four months after authorising an increase in the interim pay-out - and that it has now missed its chance to raise capital on the equity markets. That looks harsh. Assuming, as forecast, Wolseley survives the covenant test that falls due this weekend, it will have time to assess other debt-reduction options, possibly enough time for the US economy to start to show signs of revival. But the company's own gloomy outlook hardly suggests a window will open soon for a rights issue.

Yesterday's fall in the share price would make the terms of such a capital-raising even more dilutive. As for asset disposals, they would have to be made at fire sale prices. In short, unless Mr Hornsby and Webster sell whatever they're drinking to executives as an antidote to the downturn blues, it is hard to see how they can lift the pressure on the stock quickly.

----------------------------
Tensions rise over Italy's gipsy migrants

By Guy Dinmore and Gabriella Bianchi

Published: January 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 27 2009 02:00

A political storm has erupted around Italy's gipsy community after a series of recent attacks prompted Silvio Berlusconi, the country's prime minister, to suggest deploying 30,000 troops nationwide to combat crime blamed on gipsies and other immigrants.

Europe's open borders have led to a flood of Romanian gipsies into Italy, straining municipal services and stirring political tensions. Some church groups estimate 50,000 Romanian gipsies have arrived in recent years, adding to thousands of Balkan gipsies who had fled the former Yugoslavia. Many live in squalid conditions condemned by human rights groups.

Mr Berlusconi suggested the extra deployment of troops in response to the highly publicised cases of two women reportedly gang raped near Rome. Police have not publicly identified their suspects as gipsies.

But Carabinieri police units have searched 47 settlements and other places for the suspected rapists and one "Romanian" was arrested, local media said.

Police also intervened after a neo-fascist group demonstrated in Guidonia near Rome - where the rapes took place - during which thugs attacked Romanian and Albanian immigrants.

The possible troop deployment follows the decision last summer by the prime minister's tough-on-crime ruling coalition to order 3,000 troops to back up police last summer, mainly in the fight against organised crime and illegal immigration.

Ignazio La Russa, defence minister, said yesterday that Mr Berlusconi's proposal remained a "hypothesis", to be discussed further in high-level talks on Thursday.

Gipsy activists are investigating allegations that units of the Folgore parachute brigade were involved in making arrests and breaking up illegal shacks used by gipsies on Rome's Via Gordiani last week.

An army spokesman said a unit of Sardinian grenadiers had been involved in checking identities of some 70 gipsies in an illegal camp.

Thomas Hammarberg, the Council of Europe's commissioner for human rights, made his second inspection tour of camps near Rome this month.

He was visibly shocked at meeting with a Romanian who called herself Marinella, living in a tent with her two children, in the midst of rats and a swamp caused by torrential rain.

"The situation is unacceptable," he told the Financial Times. "Nothing has changed since my last report in July. In fact living conditions are even worse. So much talk and media attention but nothing happens. This is a display of inept policy."

Meanwhile, an official poster campaign sponsored by Gianni Alemanno, mayor of Rome, is boasting of "6,216 expulsions in 2008" and taking credit for a "20 per cent fall in crime".

Formerly a neo-fascist, Mr Alemanno campaigned on a promise to crack down on crime, illegal immigrants and gipsies, capitalising on emotions that were running high after the murder of a woman by a Romanian gipsy near a railway station.

Mario Mori, a retired general who is security adviser to the mayor, sought to distinguish actual policy from the heat of last April's elections.

Mr Mori said the 6,216 expelled by the prefect of the interior ministry were mostly illegal immigrants from north Africa and only a few had been gipsies.

He noted there was no national legislation on "regulating" gipsies and that policy had been left to individual cities.

Mr Alemanno wants to erase unauthorised camps and build new "maxi-camps" for gipsies who have the "right" to stay in Italy by proving they are EU citizens. Those without papers are liable for expulsion.

Mr Hammarberg said yesterday: "I am concerned about reported plans to use soldiers for evicting Roma (gipsies) from their settlements.

"If evictions are necessary at all they should be conducted humanely and only after a satisfactory alternative for housing is found and offered."

Nazareno Guarnieri, head of an organisation that represents gipsies, said: "They say we like living in camps. They invented camps. None of us lived in camps before. We want homes."

-----------------------------------
Gates foundation raises spending to spur other donors

By Andrew Jack

Published: January 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 27 2009 02:00

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the world's largest philanthropic body, is increasing spending this year to 7 per cent of its endowment despite a drop in the value of investments, as it seeks to spur other donors to continue backing education and development in the downturn, writes Andrew Jack . In his first annual letter since becoming a full-time philanthropist last year, Bill Gates said he was increasing disbursements from 5 per cent even though his organisation's assets fell by 20 per cent in 2008 to about $32bn (€24bn, £23bn).

He urged rich countries to continue increasing foreign aid, singling out for implicit criticism Italy for cutting its contribution. He stressed the importance of relating "success stories" to maintain discussion of aid during the crisis.

-------------------------------
Russia to relocate fleet to Abkhazia

By Isabel Gorst

Published: January 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 27 2009 02:00

Russia will build a new base for its Black Sea fleet at the port of Ochamchire in Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia, Itar Tass, the Russian news agency, reported an unnamed Russian navy official as saying yesterday.

Work would begin on the project this year, the official added. The announcement is likely to raise hackles in Georgia, which lost control of Abkhazia after a short war with Russia last August.

Russia currently bases its Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol, which is leased from Kiev. But Ukraine threatened last August not to renew the lease on its expiry in 2017.

-------------------------------
Oil price fall curbs Chávez revolution

By Benedict Mander in Caracas

Published: January 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 27 2009 02:00

An abrupt fall in oil revenues is forcing Hugo Chávez, Venezuelan president, to rein in boom-time economic policies, posing severe risks for his "revolution", which was sustained by heavy public spending

Mr Chávez used a surge in oil prices, which peaked in July 2008, to finance huge social programmes at home. Venturing abroad, he also offered plans to fund heating oil for poor residents of the Bronx and cheap bus fares for the elderly in London.

His government has responded to falling oil prices, and export revenues, by restricting the amount of dollars allotted to importers and Venezuelans travelling abroad. PDVSA, the state oil company, is reviewing its operations. Caracas has also dipped into the central bank's $50bn in foreign exchange reserves with $12bn in "excess" reserves being handed over for use by the government.

Analysts said Caracas hopes to avoid more unpopular measures, such as spending cuts, tax rises and perhaps even a devaluation before a February 15 referendum over whether term limits for elected officials should be scrapped. If passed, the measure would potentially allow Mr Chávez to run in the next presidential elections in 2012.

Oil accounts for more than 90 per cent of Venezuela's export revenues and more than half of government income. The drop means the country's fiscal deficit is expected to widen from 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007 to as much as 7 per cent this year, or almost $30bn, said Milton Guzmán, chief economist at Santander Investments in Caracas.

Efrain Velázquez, president of Venezuela's National Economic Council, said the government's reliance on reserves could put pressure on both inflation and the currency. But the government has denied that a devaluation, which would increase the number of bolivars the government receives per dollar of oil sold, or tax increases are being considered. "It's a risky strategy," said Mr Velázquez. "If reserves are spent up without making any serious decisions and the global economy [and oil prices] don't recover quickly, Venezuela will be in an even weaker position."

Although its oil revenues rose almost a third to record levels last year, Venezuela's economic growth tumbled from 8.4 per cent in 2007 to 4.8 per cent in 2008 and inflation rose to 30.9 per cent. Most analysts expect falling growth and rising inflation to continue this year. In spite of its protestations, analysts argue that the government has already embarked on a stealth devaluation by restricting access to dollars at the official exchange rate, fixed at 2.15 bolivars since 2005. The move has forced Venezuelans increasingly to buy foreign currency on the parallel, unofficial market, where the dollar is currently priced at 5.6 bolivars.

Although the government fears the effects that a devaluation would have on inflation - thanks to Venezuela's heavy reliance on imported goods - some economists argue that restricting access to official dollars will also spur inflation.

However, Mark Weisbrot, an economist at the Centre for Economic Policy and Research think-tank in Washington argued that there was no imminent danger for Venezuela's economy, thanks to ample reserves, low foreign debt and a comfortable, if reduced, current account surplus. "There's no pressure on the government to devalue," said Mr Weisbrot, arguing that in the worst-case scenario the government could borrow from China and Russia. "The question is whether the government does enough, fast enough, to prevent the economy slowing down," he said.

-------------------------------
GM must present better action plan for Saab: Sweden

59 mins ago
AFP

* Print Story

US carmaker General Motors must present more credible plans for its Swedish unit Saab if it wants state credit guarantees from the Scandinavian country, a Swedish government official said on Tuesday. Skip related content
Related photos / videos
GM must present better action plan for Saab: Sweden Enlarge photo
Related content

* Mandelson unveils car industry package
* Britain unlocks £2.3 bln for car industry
* Mandelson unlocks £2.3 bln for car industry
* Related Hot Topic: Financial Crisis

Have your say: Financial Crisis
Price by Yahoo! Finance
PriceStock prices Company name Last price Percentage change

"We have asked for ... a more credible business plan that outlines the development over the next few years based on a scenario where sales continue to decrease and the measures needed to combat that," Joeran Haegglund, state secretary in the ministry of enterprise, told Swedish public radio.

"That's a prerequisite for moving forward in the talks about credit guarantees," he said.

Haegglund said talks were ongoing with both GM and Saab.

The Swedish centre-right government in December presented a 28-billion-kronor (2.65-billion-euro, 3.5-billion-dollar) package to help the country's beleaguered automotive sector, including carmakers Saab and Volvo which is owned by US automaker Ford.

Of that sum, 20 billion kronor are earmarked for state credit guarantees "for raising loans (from) the European Investment Bank for conversion to green technology."

Haegglund said GM had two weeks to present a new plan.

"A decision on whether or not the state is prepared to provide guarantees is about two or three weeks away," he said.

The Swedish government said in mid-January it expected to European Investment Bank to make its decision in early March.

Both Saab and Volvo are in dire economic straits, but Saab is seen as being the one with the most serious woes, with an ageing product range and soaring costs.

Its owner GM is also the hardest hit of the three US carmakers by the global economic crisis.

Haegglund met with the heads of Ford and GM in Detroit on January 12 and said afterward the two were committed to cooperating with the Swedish state.

He made no comments about Volvo's situation in Tuesday's radio interview.

Both Ford and GM announced in early December that they planned to sell Volvo and Saab.

--------------------------
Hedge Fund Managers Get Grilling

6 hours 9 mins ago
SkyNews Sky News

* Print Story

The murky role of hedge fund managers in the banking crisis is being laid bare as MPs grill four of the industry's biggest speculators. Skip related content
Related content

* Mandelson unveils car industry package
* Britain unlocks £2.3 bln for car industry
* Mandelson unlocks £2.3 bln for car industry
* Related Hot Topic: Financial Crisis

Have your say: Financial Crisis
Price by Yahoo! Finance
PriceStock prices Company name Last price Percentage change

The high-profile quartet are being quizzed by members of the Treasury Select Committee.

Going before MPs are Christopher Hohn, the multi-millionaire founder of The Children's Investment (TCI) fund, Paul Marshall, the City financier who chairs Marshall Wace, Douglas Shaw, the head of alternatives at BlackRock, the biggest listed asset manager in America, and Stephen Zimmerman, the former Merrill Lynch executive who co-founded NewSmith Capital Partners.

Hege fund managers have been blamed by some for destabilising Britain's banks through the practice of short selling of stocks, where investors bet on a lower price for a security.

Critics say short-selling in HBOS last year jeopardised the bank's £4bn rights issue and so destabilised it that the Government was forced to drive it into the arms of Lloyds TSB.

And reports today claim Paulson & Co, the US hedge fund manager run by John Paulson, made profits of at least £270m short selling Royal Bank of Scotland shares over the past four months.



However, many in the financial industry dispute the claim that short selling in bank stocks was the cause of the market volatility.

The Financial Services Authority temporarily banned short selling in the UK last year.

This month the committee called on the Financial Services Authority to consider reinstating the ban amid a new wave of market instability, with companies making millions betting on a fall in the price of RBS and Barclays shares.

:: Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry will be quizzed on Jeff Randall Live tonight at 7.30pm.

----------------------------
Budapest hosts energy summit

27.01.2009, 11.37





BUDAPEST, January 27 (Itar-Tass) - Budapest is playing host to the energy summit over the construction of the Nabucco gas pipeline to Europe bypassing Russia.

The summit opened in the Hungarian capital on Tuesday.

Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany brought forward the idea of holding the summit back last summer, to step up the work on the project, which has been under discussion since 2002.

High-placed officials have been invited to the Hungarian capital from the countries - the project founders - Austria, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and Germany - and supplier countries - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iraq and Egypt, as well as Georgia, as a transit country.

The consortium for the construction of the gas pipeline was registered in Vienna on June 24, 2004 (Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH). It now comprises six energy companies: OMV (Austria), Bulgargaz (Bulgaria,), MOL (Hungary), Transgaz (Romania), Botas (Turkey) and RWE (Germany).

The organizers set two important objectives. It is expected that all the participants will adopt a political declaration in Budapest confirming their commitment to the project. Another task is to enlist the reliable sources of funding. The cost of construction, according to the latest estimates, has increased from 4 to 5 billion euros to 9 to 10 billion euros.

The directors of the European Investment Bank and the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development have been invited to Budapest. The negotiations with them will be held behind closed doors.

Hungary is seriously hoping that the summit will make headway in project implementation. So far, the situation around Nabucco, in the words of Ferenc Gyurcsany, reminds the plot of the well-known novel Catch-22 by Joseph Heller, when countries with gas reserves do not commit themselves until it is clear that the pipeline will be built.

For their part, those who can engage in construction, do not give promises until the source of energy resources for pumping is clearly identified.

Budapest believes that part of the contradictions can be resolved. Some of the existing risks - that private investors refuse to run - can be coped with if the participants use EU funds and financial institutes for the construction of at least the first phase of the pipeline.

In addition, Hungary earlier called for setting up an international observer body comprising lawmakers from the participant states, which should provide the necessary political support.

The organizers hope for success in the wake of the recent gas row between Russia and Ukraine, which showed the necessity to diversify gas transportation routes to Europe.

According to Hungary's Nabucco representative Mihaj Bayer, the commitment to the project has become stronger in many capitals.

There is an understanding that if the parties fail to reach an accord now, the subsequent political situation may make agreement even more difficult.

Turkey's position remains unclear. As a transit country, it is seeking 15 percent of the 30-billion cubic meters of gas to be pumped through this route. The European participants in Nabucco find this condition unsuitable.

In addition, Turkey recently linked its participation in the project with the unblocking of the energy section at the talks over joining the European Union.

The participants in the project give no cue as to why the project is called Nabucco. The mass media mentions Verdi's opera Nabucco in which Nebuchadnezzar, a Babylonian king, freed the captured residents of Jerusalem. According to the western press, the Nabucco gas pipeline should free Europe from dependence on the Russian gas.

------------------------------
Russia & Mongolia to strengthen economic ties

25.01.2009, 06.38





MOSCOW, January 25 (Itar-Tass) - The Mongolian Foreign Minister Nyamagiyn Enhobold will arrive in Moscow on Sunday for talks with Russian leadership. A meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is scheduled for January 26.

According to diplomatic sources, the talks will focus on ways to strengthen mutually beneficial partnership between Russia and Mongolia, especially in economy and investments.

Russia is Mongolia’s second largest trading partner after China. The Russian-Mongolian trade turnover stood at 785.4 million dollars in 2007. Moscow and Ulan Bator hope to increase it to one billion dollars by 2010 in accordance with the existing inter-governmental program of trade and economic cooperation.

The Mongolian foreign minister may also wish to discuss the implementation of agreements that were reached at a working meeting of the Russian and Mongolian government delegations held in Irkutsk, the Siberia, on January 23. The Russian and Mongolian delegations were headed by Russian Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev, the Russian president’s special envoy for trade, economic and investment cooperation with Mongolia, and the Mongolian Prime Minister Sanzhiyn Bayar, respectively.

The Mongolian prime minister said the consultations held in early 2009 set a good pace for cooperation for the next period. “We discussed a range of issues that are vital for our cooperation in transport, nuclear energy and agriculture,” Sanzhiyn Bayar went on to say.

‘We expect 2009 to be quite productive despite all difficult challenges caused by the bank crisis and other economic hardships which are being experienced by Russia, Mongolia and the rest of the world,” the Mongolian premier emphasized.

A high-level political dialogue between Moscow and Ulan Bator can be described as dynamic. Russian Vice-Premier Igor Sechin is to visit Mongolia in February. A regular meeting of the inter-governmental commission for trade, economic and scientific-technological cooperation will be held late in February.

For his part, the Mongolian prime minister is to visit Moscow next spring, following his recent conversation with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

-----------------------------
South Stream to facilitate Hungary’s energy security -FinMin

24.01.2009, 18.28





BUDAPEST, January 24 (Itar-Tass) - Finance Minister Janos Veres said the construction of the South Stream gas pipeline would facilitate Hungary’ s energy security.

Summing up the results of Saturday’s session of the Russian-Hungarian commission on economic cooperation, Veres said Hungary was committed to diversification of routes and sources to receive gas.

Russian First Vice-Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov said the talks had focused on the gas crisis in the beginning of January. “Ukraine’s monopoly as Russian gas transit county (80 percent of Russian gas is supplied to Europe via Europe) allows us to say gas supplies to Europe should be diversified. Risks may be different, including terrorist and technogenic ones. It is necessary to build the South Stream, the North Stream and Nabucco,” he said.

At the same time, he noted that Russia “did not create obstacles to alternative projects”. He also stressed the importance of building big gas storage facilities. “It is important all three gas pipelines to have real raw material. Russia has considerable gas sources for the North and South Stream. The Shtokman and Yamal gas deposits give 1,000 billion cubic metres of gas in order to ensure stable supplies to Europe,” Zubkov said.

He emphasised that Russia did not consider the Nabucco project competitive. “Our project has all conditions for realising it – we have resources, the market in Europe and experience in carrying out such difficult technical projects,” the Russian vice-prime minister said.

---------------------------
Natural gas in the underground storage belongs to Ukraine - Ukrainian energy minister

24.01.2009, 15.07





KIEV, January 24 (Itar-Tass) -- Natural gas in the Ukrainian underground storage that was earlier owned by the RosUkrEnergo company belongs to Ukraine at present, Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister Yuri Prodan said, as his ministry's press service cited him on Saturday.

The gas is in Ukraine's storage facilities and is Ukraine's property. The appropriate agreement is signed, Prodan noted in response to the statement of Ukrainian Customs Service head Valery Khoroshkovsky, who said that the customs service did not recognise the company Naftogaz of Ukraine as the owner of the gas in the storage. According to documents, it belongs to RosUkrEnergo. "Until I have definite grounds based on contract terms, the gas will remain gas of RosUkrEnergo," the customs chief stated.

-----------------------------
Bulgarian parliament voted for re-starting two nuclear reactors at the Kozlodui power plant

24.01.2009, 03.14





SOFIA, January 24 (Itar-Tass) -- Although Russian gas supplies to Bulgaria resumed to the full extent on Friday that country’s parliament voted for re-launching two reactors (440-megawatt water-pressurized VVER-440 units) at the Kozlodui nuclear power plant of the four earlier shut down at the demand of the European Union before the country’s admission to the EU.

The resolution was carried by a 140-majority vote, with 48 nays and 23 abstentions. The national legislature instructed the Bulgarian government to prepare the two reactors in question for launch in cooperation with the European Commission.

The Soviet-designed Kozlodui nuclear power plant began to be built in 1970. It had six units – four equipped with VVER-440 reactors and two VVER-1000 reactors. The four 440-megawatt generators were shut down. The latter two have remained operational to this day.

The Kozlodui NPP provides electricity to Bulgarian consumers and exports energy to some Balkan countries, including Greece, Macedonia and Albania.

-------------------------------
Filaret withdraws candidacy for Russian patriarch, backs Kirill
17:46 | 27/ 01/ 2009

Print version

MOSCOW, January 27 (RIA Novosti) - Russian Orthodox Church Metropolitan Filaret has withdrawn his candidacy for the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, declaring his support for Metropolitan Kirill, the Moscow Patriarchy said Tuesday.

"Metropolitan Filaret withdrew his candidacy. He called on those who voted for him at the Council of Bishops and wanted to do so at the Local Council to give their votes to Metropolitan Kirill," Patriarchy spokesman Father Vladimir Vigilyansky said.

A council of electors, which includes clergy, political figures and businessmen, gathered in Moscow on Tuesday to choose a new Russian Orthodox Church leader.

The 711-member group convened for a three-day session to elect a successor to Patriarch Alexy II, who died in December aged 79 after leading the revival of the world's largest Orthodox church since 1990. This is the first election of a patriarch since the breakup of the atheist Soviet Union.

Observers and some electors expect a new patriarch to be named as soon as Tuesday evening, as a vote was scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Moscow time (14:30 GMT).

"This is the general feeling," said Bishop Ilarion of Vienna and Austria, a Church representative at European international organizations. "If the election takes place in the first round, we will know the new patriarch's name on Tuesday night."

The church's interim leader, Metropolitan Kirill of Smolensk and Kaliningrad, was the leading candidate even before Filaret withdrew. The remaining candidate on the shortlist is Metropolitan Kliment of Kaluga and Borovsk.

Kirill, 62, in charge of the church's external relations, has led dialogue with the Vatican, a sensitive issue for the two churches, which split almost 1,000 years ago. He is well-known in Russia through his weekly television program and frequent public appearances.

Kirill led Sunday's secret ballot with 97 votes. Observers, however, said his public and political zeal could turn many bishops against him when the full council of electors voted.

Kliment received 32 votes in the preliminary poll, while Filaret, the metropolitan of Minsk and Slutsk, received 16 votes. They are seen more as traditionalists.

-----------------------------
失業：派遣・請負４０万人が３月末までに　業界団体見込み

　製造業への派遣・請負をしている会社でつくる業界団体、日本生産技能労務協会と日本製造アウトソーシング協会は２７日、製造業で働く派遣や請負労働者約４０万人が今年３月末までに失業する可能性があるとの見通しを示した。自民党の労働者派遣問題研究会で説明した。厚生労働省が昨年公表した派遣・請負の失業見込み人数８万５０００人の４．７倍にあたる。

　両協会には約１２０社が加盟している。昨年９月時点では、加盟社全体で約２５万人が雇用されていたが、両協会の調査によると、３月末までに４割に相当する１０万人が職を失う見込み。製造業の派遣・請負全体で約１００万人が雇用されているとみて、４割にあたる４０万人が失業すると試算したという。

---------------------------------
製造業の派遣労働者など40万人が失職の恐れ　業界団体が試算

　製造派遣・請負会社の業界団体である日本製造アウトソーシング協会（東京・中央）などは27日、製造業派遣などで働いていた労働者のうち40万人が失業する恐れがあるとの試算をまとめた。同日開かれた自民党の労働者派遣問題研究会（長勢甚遠座長）に提示した。

　2団体の会員企業で働く派遣労働者と請負労働者約25万人のうち、約10万人が景気悪化の影響で人員削減の対象になると推計。さらに派遣や請負だけでなく契約社員も合わせると合計40万人になると算出した。

------------------------------
ワークシェア導入、賃金制度が壁に　経団連副会長

　日本経団連で春季労使交渉を担う大橋洋治副会長（全日本空輸会長）は27日、仕事を分かちあうワークシェアリングについて「日本は昔から年功賃金が主体であり、年齢給、会社での経験が中心な所は働くものに抵抗感がある」と述べ、賃金制度が導入の壁になっているとの認識を示した。

　ワークシェアリングは「やっている所は少ない」と指摘。今は自動車や電機などの6社と10自治体での導入にとどまると紹介した。働き手は賃金の減額、企業もある一定の負担、政府は税金負担が必要との認識を示した上で「お互いが負担しあわないといけない」と普及へのポイントを語った。

　民主党と社民党、国民新党は同日共同で、経団連に非正規社員の就職を助けていく企業による基金の創設などを要望した。

-------------------------------
景気の現状「がけから落ちるよう」　日銀総裁が講演

　日銀の白川方明総裁は27日都内で講演し、景気の現状について「がけから落ちるという比喩がまさに当てはまるような急激な落ち込み」との認識を示した。「昨年9月のリーマン・ブラザーズの破綻を契機とする国際的な金融危機の高まり」を最大の原因として取り上げた。

　白川総裁は金融市場の混乱から学ぶべき教訓として「（金融機関は）流動性の枯渇の可能性を意識する必要がある」と指摘。レバレッジ（テコの原理）を利用し、自己資本に見合わない過大な借入金に頼る経営手法に懸念を示した。
　日銀の対応策として「金融システム全体としてリスクがどこに内在するのか見ていく」と述べた。また金融機関への考査やモニタリングを通じて「金融機関の個々の状況を的確に把握することが重要」との考えを示した。(

------------------------
野村の４―12月、最終赤字4924億円　通期赤字は過去最大の公算

　野村ホールディングスが27日発表した2008年4―12月期連結決算（米会計基準）は、最終損益が4924億円の赤字（前年同期は860億円の黒字）だった。金融危機の影響で株式・債券のトレーディング損失や保有資産の評価損が膨らんだうえ、米リーマン・ブラザーズの事業買収に伴う費用を計上。経費削減やリーマン統合を急ぐことで早期の収益回復をねらう。

　08年10―12月期の最終損益は3429億円の赤字（前年同期は218億円の黒字）となり、4四半期連続の赤字となった。10―12月期の赤字額は、米会計基準で四半期決算を始めた01年4―6月期以来で最大。09年3月期通期は2期連続の赤字が確実で、通期赤字額は過去最大になる公算が大きい。

---------------------------
Ｒ＆ＩとＳ＆Ｐ、野村を格下げ　ムーディーズも格下げ方向

　格付け会社の格付投資情報センター（Ｒ＆Ｉ）、スタンダード・アンド・プアーズ（Ｓ＆Ｐ）は27日、野村ホールディングスとグループ会社の格下げを発表した。

　Ｒ＆Ｉは野村ホールディングス、野村証券をそれぞれ「ＡＡマイナス」から「Ａプラス」に1段階引き下げた。金融市場の混乱に伴う多額の損失を計上した2008年4―12月期決算を受け、業績低迷が長引く可能性を反映したという。

　Ｓ＆Ｐは野村ホールディングスを「Ａマイナス」から「ＢＢＢプラス」、野村証券を「Ａ」から「Ａマイナス」に1段階引き下げた。(19:49)

---------------------------
12月の訪日外国人24.1％減　景気悪化・円高響く

　日本政府観光局（ＪＮＴＯ）は27日、2008年12月に日本を訪れた外国人数（速報値）は前年同月比24.1％減の51万3700人だったと発表した。下落幅は重症急性呼吸器症候群（ＳＡＲＳ）で海外旅行客が急減した03年5月（同34.2％減）以来。世界経済の悪化に加え、急速な円高で韓国などからの訪日客が減った。

　減少は5カ月連続。訪日外国人数にはビジネスなど観光以外の来日を含む。訪日外国人数の約2割を占める韓国からの旅客が前年同月比48.3％減となった。急激なウォン安の影響が大きかった。台湾（同23.7％減）や米国（同15.0％減）などからの訪日も大きく落ち込んだ。

　日本から海外を訪れた人は08年12月は7.0％減の127万5000人。20カ月連続で前年割れした。景気低迷に加え若者の海外旅行離れの影響も出ている。(27日 20:10)

---------------------------
国際協力銀、日本企業の資金繰り支援拡大　先進国向けも対象に

　財務省は27日、日本政策金融公庫の国際部門である国際協力銀行を通じ、海外に進出した日本企業の資金繰り支援を拡大すると発表した。従来の支援対象である途上国だけでなく、欧米など先進国に進出している日本企業に対しても融資や保証を提供できるようにする。同省は昨年末に政令を改正し、国際協力銀による先進国向け業務を承認。このほど詳細な制度設計が整ったため、27日付で業務の開始を認めた。(27日 23:53)

-------------------------
大証、今期単独経常益15％減

　大阪証券取引所は27日、2009年3月期の単独経常利益が前期比15％減の85億円になりそうだと発表した。従来予想は73億円。株価の急激な変動を背景に、ミニ日経平均先物などデリバティブ取引が活況だったのが主因。純利益は60億円（従来予想は54億円）、売上高にあたる営業収益は180億円（同 165億円）とそれぞれほぼ横ばいの見通し。

　米田道生社長は同日の記者会見で、証券会社からの売買手数料の算定基準について、現行の売買代金から売買高への変更を検討していると明らかにした。収入を日経平均の水準ではなく売買高（枚数）に連動させる狙い。

-------------------------
原発の出力向上へルール検討組織　保安院が設置

　経済産業省原子力安全・保安院は27日午前、原子炉安全小委員会を開き、原子力発電所の発電能力の向上を検討する「原子炉熱出力向上運転ワーキンググループ」を設置することを決めた。電力会社が既存原発を工事して出力を向上する際のルールを作る。

　発電用タービンなどの改良で古い原発の利用効率を高め、温暖化対策や経済性向上につなげる。保安院は安全性や技術的な課題について今夏をメドに報告書をまとめる。

　100万キロワット級の原発1基の出力を1％向上すると約5万トンの二酸化炭素（ＣＯ2）排出量を抑制できる。日本原子力発電は早ければ2010年にも、東海第2原発（茨城県東海村、出力110万キロワット）の出力を5％向上する方針だ。(13:59)

--------------------------
国際会計基準、09年度から利用可能　会計審方針

　金融庁の企業会計審議会（長官の諮問機関）は2009年度（10年3月期）から「国際会計基準」の適用を企業に認める方針を固めた。同基準は欧州を中心に100カ国以上で使われており、産業界から早期の利用を求める声が出ていることに対応する。

　今回は希望する企業が導入できる「選択適用」とする。上場企業に義務づけるかどうかは金融混乱の影響を見通しにくいため、12年をメドに最終判断する。(07:01)

--------------------------
厚労省局長の在任長期化　年金局長4年6カ月、最長に

　厚生労働省の主要局長の在任期間が長期化している。渡辺芳樹年金局長は27日で4年6カ月と5日となり、これまで最長だった矢野朝水元年金局長の記録を抜く。渡辺氏と同じ時期に就任した水田邦雄保険局長は、昨年2月にそれまでの最長記録（3年7カ月余り）を超え、在任記録をなお更新中だ。

　局長は2年程度で交代するのが通例。年金記録問題など不祥事が相次いだ厚労省を立て直すため、政府は2007年8月、旧厚生省出身で内閣府次官まで務めた江利川毅氏を厚労省の次官に起用する人事を断行した。社会保険庁長官の内部起用も不可能となっており、主要局長の異例の長期在任につながっている。 (07:01)

-------------------------
ランドセルも「ネット購入」が増加　クラレ調べ

　クラレがまとめたランドセル購入者へのアンケートで、ネット通販で買った人の割合が1年前の4.0％から9.0％に上昇したことがわかった。量販店の比率が56.5％から42.5％に、百貨店が24.5％から17.5％にそれぞれ下がる一方、ネットとかばん専門店の比率が上がったという。入学シーズンに向け、売り場であれこれと試す親子連れが目立ち始めるころだが、ネットで手軽に品定めをする人も増えているようだ。

　ランドセルの色や形を誰が選ぶかを尋ねたところ、「子ども」が63.7％と前年より9.2ポイント上昇した。男児は55.0％だが、女児では7割超が自分で決めている。母親が選ぶ割合は前年より3.8ポイント下がり21.7％だった。

　クラレは人工皮革「クラリーノ」を製造販売しており、これを使ったランドセルを購入した人に郵送でアンケート。このうち、2008年12月26日までに回収した400人分を集計した。(10:20)

---------------------------
トヨタ労組、期間従業員の賃上げ要求方針　正社員に準じて

　トヨタ自動車労働組合（鶴岡光行執行委員長）は26日、2009年の春季労使交渉で、国内工場で働く期間従業員の賃上げを求める方針を固めた。トヨタ労組は昨年4月から勤続1年を超える期間従業員を順次組合に受け入れている。組合員とした期間従業員について、正社員の賃上げ交渉の結果に準じて賃金水準を向上するように会社側に求める。

　トヨタ労組はすでに約2200人の期間従業員を組合員化している。4月時点で勤続1年超の「シニア期間従業員」として勤務している従業員について春季交渉の成果を反映するようにする。トヨタ労組はすでに非正規従業員では、パート、定年退職後の再雇用者を春季の賃上げ交渉に組み込んでいる。

　国内生産の縮小に応じてトヨタの期間従業員の雇用人数は減っている。今年3月には1年前の3分の一の3000人に減る見通し。トヨタ労組は今春の交渉で期間従業員の雇用を最大限確保するよう会社側に求める。(08:56)

----------------------------
埼玉県の上田知事、住宅ローン「金利優遇」　09年度経済対策

　埼玉県が2009年度当初予算案に盛り込む予定の経済対策の概要が26日、明らかになった。住宅購入の促進策として住宅ローンの金利を1％程度低く借りられるようにするほか、太陽光発電の導入や耐震補強、アスベストの除去をする際には助成金を出す。県はすそ野の広い住宅関連の投資を促すことで県経済全体への波及効果を狙う。

　上田清司知事が埼玉県宅地建物取引業協会の新春賀詞交歓会で明らかにした。

　住宅ローン利用者の金利負担軽減は、県が金融機関に22億円程度の利子補給をして、通常の金利より低く借りられるようにする。

　上田知事は「仮に2000戸の需要創出につながった場合の経済効果は1000億円程度になり、市町村の税収は90億円増える」との試算を示した。

　県内の新設住宅着工戸数は昨年11月が5066戸で前年同月に比べ2％伸びた。ただ、07年は改正建築基準法の影響で件数が大幅に落ち込んでいたためで、06年11月と比較すると2割近く少ない。

-------------------------
フグ食べた２人重体　山形の料理店

　26日午後10時ごろ、山形県鶴岡市大西町の「鮮魚料理きぶんや」でフグを食べた客7人が体のしびれを訴え、家族が119番した。

　鶴岡署によると、鶴岡市の無職佐藤朝吉さん（68）と、同市の公民館事務局長五十嵐孝志さん（55）が意識不明の重体、5人が手足のしびれを訴えている。

　山形県によると、店はフグの営業届を提出しておらず、県が年1回開くフグ調理者の講習会にも参加していなかった。保健所などは店を立ち入り調査し、原因を調べている。

　佐藤さんらは26日午後6時半ごろから、8人で同店のフグ刺しや白子などを食べたという。食事中に佐藤さんが体調不良を訴えたため、車で病院に搬送。帰宅した五十嵐さんの体調が急変したため、家族が119番した。〔共同〕(15:02)

----------------------------
フグ食べ重体…「白子うまい」聞き免許ナシで調理

　２６日午後１０時ごろ、山形県鶴岡市の「鮮魚料理きぶんや」でフグを食べた客７人が体のしびれを訴え、家族が１１９番した。

　鶴岡署によると、鶴岡市の無職、佐藤朝吉さん（６８）が意識不明の重体。同市の公民館事務局長、五十嵐孝志さん（５５）は一時重体となったが、容体が若干持ち直し重症となった。５人が手足のしびれを訴えている。

　フグ料理は同店経営者の男が調理したとみられ、鶴岡署の調べに対し男は「フグの調理師免許は持っていない。白子はうまいと聞いて出した」と説明しているという。店はフグの営業届も提出していなかった。県警は２７日、業務上過失傷害容疑で同店を家宅捜索、保健所も立ち入り調査し、原因を調べている。

-----------------------------
環境省、犬猫収容施設拡充へ　処分半減目指す

　環境省は2009年度から、飼い主のいない犬や猫を収容する施設（全国約400カ所）の新築や改修を後押しする事業を始める。訪問者が犬や猫と触れあえる空間を設けるほか、スペースを広げて現在よりも長く収容できるようにする。引き取り手と出会う機会を増やすための工夫で、やむなく殺処分される犬や猫を 17年度末までに半減させたい考え。

　野犬や迷い犬・猫などの収容業務は現在、都道府県・政令市などの動物愛護センターと市町村などの保健所が行っている。同省によると、約400ある施設の約4割が1973年の旧動物保護管理法制定前の建築。同法制定前は主に狂犬病の感染防止が収容の目的になっており、施設も引き取り手との出会いを意識した造りになっていなかった。

----------------------------
バーレーン戦生放送なし…「億」ふっかけられ交渉決裂

１１年ぶり非常事態

　「日本代表戦は金になる」という神話は、すでに死んだ－。２０１１年アジア杯最終予選、バーレーン－日本（日本時間２９日午前０時１５分開始予定）の放送に向け、日本サッカー協会と代理店がギリギリの交渉を続けてきたが、結局、２６日夜までに交渉は決裂。すべての生放送が完全消滅した。日本代表の生中継が行われないのは実に１１年ぶりの非常事態。日本サッカー界はもう一度足元を見つめ直す必要がある。（夕刊フジ編集委員・久保武司）

----------------------------
北方領土：ビザなし上陸できず　露が入国カード要求

　外務省に２７日入った連絡によると、北方四島のロシア人住民への人道支援として物資を届けようと船で国後島に上陸しようとした同省職員ら７人が同日午前、ロシア側から出入国カードの提出を求められ、これを拒否、上陸できないまま沖合で待機していることが分かった。カード提出を拒否したのは、提出が北方領土のロシアの主権を認めることになるため。これまでの支援では身分証明書などを示す「ビザなし交流」で上陸してきた。

　同省によると、上陸しようとしたのは札幌市にある千島歯舞諸島居住者連盟の５人と外務省職員２人。同連盟は０３年から年１回この時期に、四島住民に物資の提供を続けてきた。同省は２８日にロシア当局と改めて交渉する。この問題をめぐってはロシア外務省のウラジーミル・ノソフ在ユジノサハリンスク外交代表が昨年１０月、北海道根室市で記者会見し、北方領土を訪れる日本人に今年以降、出入国カード提出が求められる可能性が高いとの見通しを示していた。

----------------------------
英国：自動車産業に２９００億円の公的支援策

　【ロンドン藤好陽太郎】英政府は２７日、総額２３億ポンド（２９００億円）の自動車産業に対する公的支援策を発表した。国内外の自動車メーカーや部品メーカーへの融資に保証を付けるのが主な内容。フランス政府はすでに、融資を含めた６０億ユーロ（７０００億円）の救済策を公表しており、金融危機を背景に各国政府の支援が広がりつつある。

　欧州投資銀行（ＥＩＢ）が１３億ポンド、英政府が１０億ポンドを負担する。このほか、労働者の研修や、二酸化炭素（ＣＯ２）排出量が少ない自動車を購入する場合の支援策なども、別途用意する。

　英国の１２月の自動車販売は、前年同月比４７．５％減と記録的な急落ぶり。一部メーカーが生産を一時休止したほか、日産自動車が英工場の１２００人を削減する方針を打ち出した。銀行の貸し渋りは激しくなり、メーカーの資金繰りは逼迫（ひっぱく）。インド財閥系の自動車メーカー、タタ・モーターズが買収した英高級車ブランド「ジャガー」などが政府の支援を求めていた。

-------------------------
米アメックス：純利益７９％減　１０～１２月期

　米金融・旅行大手アメリカン・エキスプレス（アメックス）が２６日に発表した０８年１０～１２月期決算は、純利益が前年同期比７９％減の１億７２００万ドル（約１５３億円）と大幅減益だった。

　米景気の急速な悪化や金融市場の混乱によるクレジットカード事業の損失拡大や資金調達コストの増加が響いた。人員削減に関する費用も収益を圧迫した。アメックスは銀行持ち株会社化が認められ、政府が緊急経済安定化法に基づく約３３億９０００万ドルの資本注入を承認。人員削減などリストラを急ぐ方針を示している。（共同）

--------------------------
中川秀直氏：「『反乱』は古い」と不快感　森氏の批判に

　自民党の中川秀直元幹事長は２７日、朝日ニュースターの番組収録で、消費税増税問題を巡って森喜朗元首相から新聞のインタビュー記事で「反乱だ」と批判されたことについて、「『反乱』という言葉自体が古い自民党の体質から出ているような気がする」と不快感を示した。

　森氏と中川氏はともに町村派。中川氏はかつては森内閣の官房長官を務めるなど、森氏と親密な関係だったが、最近は麻生政権に批判的な言動を繰り返す中川氏に森氏が不満を募らせ、関係が冷え込んでいる。

----------------------------
介護福祉士候補：インドネシア人４５人に修了証書

　日本とインドネシアとの経済連携協定（ＥＰＡ）に基づき半年間の日本語研修を受けていたインドネシア人介護福祉士候補者の修了式が２７日、横浜市金沢区のＡＯＴＳ横浜研修センターであり、４５人全員が修了証書を受け取った。大阪府で研修中の５６人、研修免除の３人を合わせた計１０４人が２８日以降、全国各地で働き始める。

　修了式では、候補者を代表しエカさん（２３）が「何も読めない、書けない、言っていることも分からなかったが、だいぶ分かるようになりました。いつまでも明るく元気に働きたい」と述べた。大阪の老人保健施設で働くという。式後、同国でも有名な五輪真弓さんの「心の友」をみんなで肩を組んで歌った。

　候補者は３年間働いて国家試験に合格すれば日本で働き続けられる。一方、同国の「看護師」候補者１０４人は３カ所の施設で研修中で、来月１２日に修了式がある。一部は来月下旬の看護師試験を受ける予定だという。

----------------------------
ロシア：石油汚染で鳥が大量死　サハリン南部

　ロシア環境保護団体「サハリン環境ウオッチ」は２６日、サハリン州南部のアニワ湾で、石油によるとみられる汚染で数百羽の鳥が死んだと発表、石油・天然ガス開発事業「サハリン２」が原因となった可能性があると指摘した。

　２５日に石油を積んだタンカーが出港した後、汚染が起きたという。日本の商社も出資するサハリン２の事業会社「サハリンエナジー」は汚染との関連を否定している。

　アニワ湾では、石油の積み出し施設が完成し、昨年１２月に日本などへの輸出を開始。また来月の液化天然ガス（ＬＮＧ）輸出開始に向け、ＬＮＧプラントも造られている。（共同）

-------------------------
捜査での通訳ミス認定　大阪地裁　取り調べの録画で判明

2009年1月28日0時29分

　大阪地裁は２７日、傷害致死などの罪に問われた韓国人被告に対する有罪判決のなかで、捜査段階の通訳ミスを認定した。取り調べの様子を録画したＤＶＤでわかった。被告の暴行について、長井秀典裁判長は「被害者の髪を両手で引っ張った程度にとどまる」と判断。被告の供述調書では「揺さぶった」ことになっていたが、判決は「通訳が不正確だったため、被告の真意ではない表現になった」と述べた。

　判決によると、無職の金美延（キム・ミヨン）被告（３３）＝大阪市中央区＝は昨年４月２２日朝、同市生野区を走行中のタクシーの車内で友人の女性（当時３１）と口論になり、髪の毛を引っ張りあった。その際、女性の首の血管が切れ、２日後に外傷性くも膜下出血で死なせた。判決は、女性は被告の暴行で死亡したと判断し、懲役３年執行猶予５年（求刑懲役６年）を言い渡した。

　公判で証拠採用されたＤＶＤには、検察官が「揺さぶったのか」と尋ねたのに、通訳人が「揺さぶられたのか」と訳し、被告が「はい」と答える様子が記録されていた。

--------------------------
「誤解招いた」都が関係者に謝罪　築地市場移転問題

2009年1月27日22時9分

　築地市場（東京都中央区）の移転予定地から高濃度の発がん性物質が検出されながら都が専門家の会議に報告していなかった問題で、都側は２７日、市場の仲卸業者など業界代表者に「情報開示のタイミングの読みが甘く、誤解される結果になってしまった」と謝罪した。

　発がん性物質の検出や、予定地の地下に汚水を通しにくい粘性土層を確認できない地点があったことについて、都側は、土壌調査の結果がまとまる８月に一括して発表する予定だったと説明。さらに担当者は「隠すつもりはなかった。今後は移転を進めるためにも情報をオープンにすることを肝に銘じたい」とも述べたという。

--------------------------
日本語、これだけは覚えて　滞日外国人向けに具体案

2009年1月27日22時5分

印刷

ソーシャルブックマーク このエントリをはてなブックマークに追加 Yahoo!ブックマークに登録 このエントリをdel.icio.usに登録 このエントリをlivedoorクリップに登録 このエントリをBuzzurlに登録

　日本で健やかに暮らすには、日々のどんな場面で、日本語を使ってどんなやりとりができればいいのか――。日本に住む外国人が増えるなか、国が、これだけは適切な応対が必要と考えられる場面の具体案をまとめようとしている。２７日の文化審議会国語分科会で構想が明らかになった。日本語教育のカリキュラムや、日本語能力を客観的に評価するための目安作りも視野に入れ、検討を続ける。

　担当の日本語教育小委員会は、中国帰国者定着促進センター（埼玉県所沢市）や新宿日本語学校（東京都）など五つの機関から、日本語教育の実践例を聞き取り調査した。さらに国立国語研究所日本語教育基盤情報センターの協力を得て、「生活者としての外国人」が日本語学習によって「できるようになる」ことが期待される「生活上の行為」の事例を集めて分類した。

　２７日は、この「生活上の行為」のリストが公開された。「健康・安全に暮らす」「子育て・教育を行う」「自身を豊かにする」など１０項目の大分類からなり、さらに２３項目の中分類、その下の５７項目の小分類に階層化されている。

　例えば「薬を利用する」という小分類では、「薬局・薬店の利用（市販薬の選択・購入）、薬ラベルの理解と適切な利用」などを具体的な事例に挙げている。また、「育児をする」では「母子健康手帳の管理、乳幼児健康診断の受診、子供の医療費助成の申請」などを目標としている。

　小委員会は今後の課題として、（１）標準的な日本語教育カリキュラムの開発（２）幅広く使える日本語教育教材の原型の作成（３）外国人に必要な日本語能力を客観的に測定するための評価基準と評価方法の作成を挙げている。

--------------------------
ＮＹ連銀総裁にダッドレー氏　ガイトナー氏の後任

2009年1月28日1時13分

　【ニューヨーク＝丸石伸一】ニューヨーク連邦準備銀行は２７日、前日に米財務長官に就任したティモシー・ガイトナー前総裁の後任に、ゴールドマン・サックスのエコノミストなどを務めたウィリアム・ダッドレー氏が２７日付で就任した、と発表した。

　ダッドレー氏は０７年からニューヨーク連銀に入り、市場関連の担当部門の責任者などを務めていた。

　ニューヨーク連銀総裁は、経営難に苦しむ米金融大手の経営を監督する重要ポスト。ガイトナー財務長官やバーナンキ米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）議長と連携し、米金融システムを再生に導くかじ取り役として期待される。

-------------------------
雪印、「メグミルク」と統合発表　売上高２位森永に迫る

2009年1月27日20時58分

　乳業３位の雪印乳業と、同４位で「メグミルク」ブランドの日本ミルクコミュニティ（日本ＭＣ）は２７日、１０月１日付で持ち株会社を設立し、経営統合すると正式に発表した。０７年度の両社の売上高は合計で５千億円を超え、２位の森永乳業に迫る。もともと両社は同じ会社で、再統合で経営基盤の強化を図る。

　持ち株会社は「雪印メグミルク」で、東京証券取引所１部と札幌証券取引所に上場する予定。雪印株式１株に対し、持ち株会社株０．２株、日本ＭＣ１株に同０．４８株を割り当てる。社長には雪印の高野瀬忠明社長が、会長には日本ＭＣの小原実社長が就任する。２社は持ち株会社の子会社になるが、持ち株会社も含めて数年以内に合併する方針だ。

　日本ＭＣは、かつては雪印の牛乳部門。００年の集団食中毒事件と０２年に発覚した子会社による牛肉偽装事件で経営が悪化したのを受け、０３年に分離された。

　ただ、牛乳の消費減少で年々市場は縮小。０８年３月期の純利益は２年前に比べ３分の１になり、単独での生き残りが難しい状況にあった。競争力があるチーズやバターなどに特化した雪印も、原料となる飼料や原油の高騰などで減益傾向にある。そこで、商品開発や原料調達などでの効率化を進める考えだ。

　両社長によると、昨年４月ごろから話し合いを始め、同９月に統合の方針を固めたという。事件で失墜した雪印ブランドに対する信頼が回復したかどうかとの質問が相次いだが、雪印の高野瀬社長は質問には直接回答せず「事件を風化させてはならないと思っている」と話すにとどまった。

-----------------------------
ＵＡＥ・カタール国境油田の回収量増強へ　合同石油開発　
2009.1.26 23:56

　コスモ石油やジャパンエナジーなどが出資する合同石油開発（東京都港区）は２６日、油田開発権益を持つアラブ首長国連邦（ＵＡＥ）とカタールの国境海上「エル・ブンドク油田」の原油回収量を増強することを明らかにした。同油田は原油生産開始から３０年以上が経過し、油圧低下の影響で生産量がピークから２割以上落ち込んでいる。年内に数十億円を投じて油田にガスを圧力注入する設備を導入。生産量を現状比４０００バレル引き上げ、ピークの日量１万８０００バレルに回復させる。

　合同石油開発は昭和４５年に設立され、現在はコスモ石油とジャパンエナジー石油開発がともに３５％ずつ、三井物産２０％、三井石油開発が１０％を出資している。

　同社は、エル・ブンドク油田の開発資金の９７％を負担。出資見合いで、日本の需要（日量４００万バレル）の０.３５％に当たる日量約１万４０００バレルを日本に供給している。