再編サバイバル（上）自動車業界編 危機的状況、淘汰も不可避か

再編サバイバル（上）自動車業界編　危機的状況、淘汰も不可避か
2009.1.2 13:01

　世界の自動車メーカーが、米国発の金融危機と世界同時不況の大津波に飲み込まれた。経営危機に陥った米ビッグスリーは政府にすがり、“勝ち組”だったトヨタ自動車も営業赤字に転落する。日米欧だけでなく、新興国の自動車販売にも急ブレーキがかかり、２００９年の世界販売台数は３割以上も落ち込むとの予想もあり、日本メーカー全体の生産台数に匹敵する需要が吹き飛ぶ。再編どころか淘（とう）汰（た）も不可避のクライシスが幕を開ける。

２度のトヨタショック

　「えっ嘘（うそ）だろ…」。

　昨年１１月６日、都内のホテルで開かれたトヨタ自動車の２００８年９月中間決算発表。配布された資料に報道陣は目を疑った。０９年３月期の営業利益予想を期初の１兆６０００億円から１兆円も少ない６０００億円に下方修正したのだ。

　だが、これは本当のトヨタショックの序の口にしか過ぎなかった。わずか１カ月半後の１２月２２日、トヨタは再び下方修正に追い込まれた。予想は１５００億円の営業赤字だった。

　「かつてない緊急事態に直面している」

　渡辺捷昭社長の表情は苦痛にゆがんだ。

　０８年３月期に日本企業として空前絶後の２兆２７００億円もの営業利益を稼ぎ出し、この世の春を謳歌（おうか）していたが、たった１年で露と消える。

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Europe better able to ride out gas storm

By Stefan Wagstyl and Ed Crooks in London and Roman Olearchyk in Kiev

Published: January 1 2009 19:15 | Last updated: January 1 2009 19:15

When Russia cut natural gas supplies to Ukraine three years ago, the impact was felt immediately across the European Union as Kiev made good its losses by diverting transit shipments.

There was outrage in EU capitals when supplies dropped by 30 per cent or more, even though normal service was quickly resumed after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal on January 3.

This time, Russia’s customers have had time to prepare for possible disruptions. Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled export monopoly, has given ample warning of the dangers.

Gas-importing countries have tried to keep their gas storage full, assisted by what has so far been a mild winter and by the global economic crisis which has cut industrial gas demand.

Yesterday Gazprom said it was increasing transit supplies across Ukraine. Naftogaz, the Ukrainian state gas company, said it had seen a decline in its own imports but, with plenty of gas in store, it could cope with the shortfall without diverting transit gas.

EU countries – which buy 25 per cent of their gas from Gazprom, with 80 per cent of this coming across Ukraine – reported no supply problems yesterday. Eni, the Italian gas group, Gaz-System, the Polish pipeline operator, and Germany’s Eon all said supplies were running normally. The EU insisted the dispute must not affect third parties.

“All existing commitments to supply and transit must be honoured,” said the Czech Republic, which currently holds the EU presidency, and the European Commission in a joint statement.

As the charts show, leading EU importers of Russian gas have up to four months’ supply in storage capacity.

If governments take emergency action – such as buying gas elsewhere, switching some electricity generation to alternative fuels and, as a last resort, rationing gas supplies to gas-intensive industrial users – domestic consumers could be protected for much longer.

Ukraine itself is well placed. Naftogaz says the country has 28bn cubic metres of stored gas, or about 22 per cent of annual consumption. It is pumping out 200m cu m daily to supplement the 58m cu m of daily domestic gas output.

The ability to weather actual and potential short-term disruption spares countries, especially in eastern Europe, from long-term dependence on Gazprom.

The EU wants to boost energy security by improving co-operation, including boosting cross-border energy links. But with Germany, France and Italy, Russia’s most important customers, competing to win bilateral deals with Gazprom, Moscow has played the big EU powers off against each other in gas. Calls from Poland and other east European states for EU-wide gas solidarity have brought few benefits.

The EU backs energy diversification. But even heavy investment in renew- ables and nuclear will not greatly reduce dependence on gas imports. Brussels seeks new gas sources, including the ambitious Nabucco scheme to pipe gas from the Caspian region across Turkey, circumventing Russia. But it is unclear whether the region has sufficient gas or whether Caspian governments can brave Russian hostility to the plan. Moscow’s armed intervention in Georgia last summer scared gas-rich states in the region.

Meanwhile, securing more distant potential gas sources such as Iran and Qatar poses big challenges.

Far from cutting its EU market share, Gazprom is planning increases in line with a forecast decline in gas production in the North Sea – Europe’s biggest gas source outside Russia.

Even before the global financial crisis, however, the Russian group was struggling to implement investments in remote gas fields as well as two export pipelines – Nord Stream, under the Baltic Sea, and South Stream, under the Black Sea to the Balkans.

Now Gazprom faces new financial pressures, not least because gas prices are expected to fall sharply over the next few months, following the slump in oil prices. Additional reporting by Roman Olearchyk in Kiev

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EU fears for supply as Russia blocks gas to Ukraine

By Isabel Gorst in Moscow and Roman Olearchyk in Kiev

Published: January 2 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 2 2009 02:00

Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine yesterday after last-minute talks about a deal for this year broke down in Moscow.

Although both sides said they would guarantee supplies to western Europe, the cut has again raised fears of gas shortages in the European Union, which relies on Russian gas moved through Ukrainian transit pipelines to meet about 20 per cent of its demand. Russia's action is the latest in an increasingly acrimonious dispute that has dogged Ukraine since 2006.

The US voiced its unease at Russia's action last night, calling on both sides to reach a speedy agreement. The White House said: "We urge both sides to keep in mind the humanitarian implications of any interruption of gas supply in the winter. The predictable flow of energy to Ukraine and the rest of Europe under market-based, transparent conditions is essential for stability and reliability in regional and global energy markets.''

Gazprom, Russia's state gas group, began cutting deliveries to Ukraine at 10am yesterday, saying it was "under no legal obligation to continue" supplies in the absence of a gas deal for 2009. At issue is debt that Ukraine owes Russia, plus a new contract for supplies. Ukraine has offered to pay $201 per 1,000 cubic metres for the gas, but Gazprom has been asking for $250. However, yesterday Alexei Miller, Gazprom chief executive, said it could charge as much as $418.

Ukraine appeared to be seeking a compromise late yesterday when President Viktor Yushchenko said: "Our negotiations with the Russian side should resume in the coming one to two days and be finished by January 7. I think we are close to a compromise."

Bohdan Sokolovsky, Ukraine's presidential energy adviser, told the FT: "We received an official response several hours ago that the Russian side has agreed to resume negotiations."

Russia accused Ukraine of "unsanctioned" drawing off of gas volumes bound for Europe yesterday, although Ukraine said the small amount was for "technical" reasons and was covered by existing agreements. Gazprom said shipments of gas bound for Europe would continue in full.

Ukraine settled $1.5bn (£1bn) of its Russian gas debts this week, but an additional $450m in fines for late payment is outstanding.

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Recovery forecast ‘too optimistic’

By Chris Giles, Economics Editor

Published: January 1 2009 22:01 | Last updated: January 1 2009 22:01

Britain faces the worst economic outlook since the early 1980s, according to the Financial Times’ annual survey of leading economists, which shows considerable concern that the Treasury’s forecast of a recovery in the second half of the year is too optimistic.

The survey also shows that two-thirds of economists thought the government lacked a credible policy for restoring health to the public finances. A similar proportion thought the modest tax cuts and public spending increases to be desirable.

A large majority of the 67 economists surveyed believed unemployment was likely to rise close to 3m and that house prices would continue to fall throughout 2009.

Although only two in five thought persistent deflation was a serious risk for 2009, a majority believed the Bank of England should start this year the unorthodox policy of printing money to buy assets to ward off the threat of a more serious economic downturn.

Economists’ survey

The full results of the 2008 survey of leading UK economists

The clear consensus among leading economists, including seven former members of the Monetary Policy Committee, was that the outlook was very troubling.

Sir Howard Davies, Director of the London School of Economics, said: “I do not expect to see any significant economic recovery in 2009. I expect the British economy to bump along the bottom, at best.”

Alan Budd, Provost of Queen’s College, Oxford, and former chief economic adviser to the Treasury argued that a significant risk was that “industrial and commercial firms in the UK and around the world will be forced to sack people and cut investment drastically in an attempt to restore liquidity”.

With such a difficult outlook, the majority of economists want the authorities to step up efforts to limit the damage to jobs and the misery of recession.

Sushil Wadhwani, of Wadhwani Asset Management, called for the Bank to follow the Federal Reserve into quantitative easing – where the authorities create money to buy gilts or private sector assets – arguing that these “are required in any case given the broken nature of the monetary transmission mechanism”.

DeAnne Julius, chairman of Chatham House, thought the government should provide further support for banks to ease lending pressures on companies.

“The UK government has been especially tight-fisted in the terms it has offered its banks for assistance. This may yet backfire,” she said.

But there was no consensus on the need to throw everything at the recession without concern for the longer term.

Charles Goodhart, of the London School of Economics, and former chief economist of the Bank of England, said: “By 2012 we will be wishing that we had done [fiscal stimulus and breeching the old fiscal rules] differently. In a human society, there is no such thing as a ‘binding rule’, but fiscal profligacy will soon come to be rued.”

He, among others, was concerned that the long process of emerging from recession and tightening fiscal and monetary policy over the next decade would be extremely difficult.

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Data swap for nuclear neighbours

By Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad and James Lamont in New Delhi

Published: January 1 2009 17:34 | Last updated: January 1 2009 17:34

India and Pakistan exchanged sensitive nuclear information on Thursday in a rare conciliatory gesture after the sharp deterioration in relations following the Mumbai terror attacks.

The step followed the personal intervention of George W. Bush, US president, who made New Year’s eve phone calls to Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan’s president, and Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister.

A senior Pakistani official said Mr Bush “urged both India and Pakistan to de-escalate the situation by taking measures such as deploying air force units back to peacetime locations”.

The sharing of details of atomic sites between the nuclear-armed neighbours took place under a 17-year-old agreement that binds the two countries from attacking each other’s facilities.

In a related goodwill gesture, up to 40 Pakistani nationals arrived in Karachi after being released from jail in India where they had been arrested for visa infringements.

The moves followed a month-long escalation in tensions between the two countries which saw Pakistan shift troops from its border with Afghanistan to that with India and cancel leave for its soldiers.

India blames Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani militant group, for the November attack on some of Mumbai’s best-known landmarks and has pushed Islamabad to hand over leaders of the group for trial, something it has refused to do.

Pakistani officials hailed the latest steps as helping to avoid conflict.

But India kept up its pressure on Pakistan to crack down on militants, saying “tangible” progress had yet to be achieved. Pranab Mukherjee, India’s foreign minister, said the US had shared evidence with Pakistan about the Mumbai attacks and insisted again that Islamabad hand over suspects for trial.

Five members of the US FBI on Wednesday visited a remote village in central Pakistan reported to be the home of Ajmal Kasab, the lone gunman captured during the Mumbai attacks.

Reports this week said Abrar Shah, a leading member of Lashkar-e-Taiba detained by Pakistan, had confessed that the group planned the attacks in Mumbai.

Pakistani legal experts, however, warned that such a confession had questionable value when police in Pakistan often used torture. Tafazul Rizvi, a respected lawyer, said: “Even an elephant will confess to being a deer if told to do so during a police interrogation.”

Separately, at least three blasts rocked Guwahati, capital of India’s north-eastern Assam state, last night with police saying at least five people were killed and 26 wounded.

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三河湾海底に生物住めない「死の領域」　浚渫など影響か

2009年1月1日15時48分

　三河湾の海底に、酸素が乏しく生物がすめない「デッドゾーン」が広範囲に広がっていることが確かめられた。愛知県水産試験場（蒲郡市）が湾内２０水域で海底の状況を調べ、貝類など底生生物が全く生息していないポイントを含む水域が９割に達することがわかった。浚渫（しゅんせつ）や埋め立てが影響していると見られている。

　三河湾が生物にとってどんな環境か知る手がかりに、と調査した。「デッドゾーン」は各地の湾など閉鎖性の高い水域で問題になっており、網羅的な調査は珍しいという。

　赤潮の沈下などが起きやすく、海水の環境が一番悪いと考えられる夏場の状況を調べるため、０８年７～９月にかけて実施。港や埋め立て地の周辺など２０水域を選び、計約１００ポイントで海底にある泥を採取した。

　その結果、半数前後のポイントでは、貝類やエビ、カニ、ゴカイなどの底生生物がまったく見つからなかった。２０水域中、こうしたポイントを含む水域が１８に達した。

　１８水域のうち１２水域の泥からは、強力な酸素消費物質である硫化物が、乾燥させた泥１グラム当たり２ミリグラム（乾燥前に測定）以上の高濃度で検出された。水産業などの目安とされる水産用水の環境基準値（１グラム当たり０．２ミリグラム）の１０倍以上にあたる。硫化物は周辺の海域にも流れ、悪影響を及ぼしている可能性があるという。

　三河湾内には、航路確保や埋め立て地造りのため浚渫された場所が点在し、そのくぼ地が残っている。狭い水路などもある。くぼ地にたまった酸素濃度が低い水のかたまりは、水流の変化で一気に浮上した時に生物に大きな被害をもたらすとされる。

　愛知県のアサリ漁業を支える豊川河口のアサリ稚貝が０１、０２年に大量死した際も、浚渫後のくぼ地の存在が要因として指摘された。大量死は今年も起きている。

　外部との海水交換が限られている水域では、夏場に酸素が少ない状態が急速に進む影響で底生生物がすめなくなり、底生生物が果たすはずの水質浄化が進まず、底生生物にすみにくいような環境悪化がさらに進むという悪循環になっている可能性がある。

　こうした水域の中には、以前は周辺の干潟のおかげで水質が改善され、デッドゾーン化を免れていたところもあると考えられている。

　愛知県水産試験場と県の港湾、環境関連の部門は今後、湾の調査や水質浄化、干潟再生などに連携して取り組み、海中の生物多様性確保につなげたいという。

　同試験場の漁場改善グループは「まだ一部のサンプリングに過ぎないので、ポイントを増やしたり時期を変えたりして調査を進め、原因と対策の研究を進めたい」としている。

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中国当局、五輪との関連初めて認める　粉ミルク・メラミン混入事件
2009.1.2 19:41

　【北京＝矢板明夫】中国で粉ミルクに有害物質メラミンが混入された事件で、製造元の「三鹿集団」の元経営陣に対する刑事裁判が河北省石家荘人民法院（地裁）で始まった。３１日の初公判では、検察側が「北京五輪への影響を避けるために被害状況を隠蔽（いんぺい）した」と指摘したのに対し、被告側は「公表が遅れた責任は地元政府にある」と激しく対立。北京五輪が粉ミルク事件の被害拡大の原因の一つであることを、中国当局が初めて認めた形となった。

　１日付の中国政府系英字紙「中国日報」によると、劣悪生産販売罪などを問われた三鹿集団前会長の田文華被告（６６）の公判で検察側は、「ミルクを飲んだ子供たちに健康被害が起きていることを知りながら、田被告は昨年８月１日の社内の幹部会議で、『公表すれば北京五輪に悪影響を及ぼすほか、会社に大きな損害を与える』と話すなど、事実隠蔽を指示した」と指摘。これに対し田被告は「五輪開幕前の８月２日に、被害状況を河北省の石家荘市に書面で報告しており、公表が遅れた責任は行政側にある」と主張した。

　事件は９月中旬、上海の地方紙が「三鹿集団のミルクを飲んだ多くの乳幼児が入院」と報じたことで明らかになった。その後の調べで同社の経営陣は少なくとも８月初めから汚染の実態を把握していたが、公表しないまま１月以上も約９００トンの汚染粉ミルクを生産し、被害を拡大させた。

　事件発覚後、中国国内のネットや欧米などのメディアは、「公表が遅れたのは中国が国家の威信をかけた北京五輪への影響を避けるため」とする分析記事を掲載しているが、中国メディアは事件と五輪と結び付けることを避け、企業の責任のみを追及した。

　三鹿集団のトップを長年務めた田被告は、中国有数の女性企業家として知られるが、国有系企業である同社の重大不祥事の公表は、所轄する地元政府の同意が必要だといわれている。中国の社会問題専門家も、「事件と五輪の関係を認めたのは一歩前進だが、一企業が北京五輪への影響を考慮する必要はなく、行政責任を追及すべきだ」と指摘している。

　事件で２９万人の乳幼児に腎臓結石などの異常が見つかっており、うち６人が死亡した。中国メディアによれば、田被告は死刑か無期懲役の判決を受ける可能性もあるという。