Moscow forced to shore up rouble
By Charles Clover in Moscow and Peter Garnham in London
Published: September 4 2008 20:37 | Last updated: September 4 2008 20:37
Russia’s central bank intervened heavily to support the rouble on Thursday as analysts said $21bn of foreign capital might have been pulled out of the country as Moscow paid the price for its conflict with Georgia.
The rouble fell as low as R30.41, its weakest level since the Russian central bank adopted its euro/dollar basket in February 2007. The central bank governor admitted there had been capital outflows since the war but said the amount was much lower.
The currency intervention was the first since the height of the war with Georgia at the beginning of August. Before the conflict the central bank’s interventions in the market were aimed at stemming the rise of the rouble, which it manages to a basket weighted 55 per cent in dollars and 45 per cent in euros.
The attractions of resource-rich Russia, a net foreign creditor with sustainable trade and fiscal surpluses and the third-largest foreign exchange reserves, had made the rouble a one-way upward bet. However, the rouble has suffered as foreign investors have pulled money out of Russia.
The outflow of capital from Russia has slowed markedly from its pace in the middle of August, when capital flight was $21bn in the two weeks to the end of August 22, according to Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, and foreign currency reserves fell at their most precipitous rate since the 1998 currency crisis. Capital outflows in the week ending August 29 were a much lower $1.7bn, though over the past two days the value of the rouble against the dollar and euro sank 2 per cent indicating renewed capital flight. To stop the rouble falling further, the central bank sold $3.5bn-$4bn in reserves, currency dealers were reporting.
Dealers at MDM Bank in Moscow believe the central bank sold up to $4.5bn in an effort to halt the rouble’s fall, said Mikhail Galkin an MDM analyst.
The rouble sell off is a sign that in spite of the stabilisation of the conflict in Georgia, and the absence of tough sanctions on Russia, investors still perceive political risk. Russia’s Rts stock market index fell 3.94 per cent after dropping 4.25 per cent on Wednesday.
The central bank said that the capital outflow from Russia last month, when unnerved investors headed for the exits, was $5bn. “According to very preliminary estimates, the outflow [in August] totalled around $5bn,” said Russian news agencies quoting Sergei Ignatyev, central bank chairman.
Ivan Tchakarov, a vice-president of emerging markets research at Lehman Brothers, said: “We find CBR claim that only $5bn has left Russia in August highly unlikely ... In our view, August capital outflows may amount to at least $15bn-$20bn.”
Russia’s central bank still has an impressive war chest to defend its currency. Its reserves measured in this week at $582bn, the third-largest foreign currency reserves in the world.
-----------------------------------
The west should use economics to rein in Russia
By Anders Aslund
Published: September 4 2008 19:05 | Last updated: September 4 2008 19:05
Russia’s invasion of Georgia has shocked the west and spurred talk about how to respond. The conventional wisdom is that the west can do little to punish Russia. True, western governments have limited leverage, but in economic terms the Russian invasion has already hit it hard, even before western governments lifted a finger. This economic blow shows the west how it can punish Russia’s leaders.
On the fateful day of August 8, Russia’s stock market plummeted 6.5 per cent. It has now fallen 36 per cent in the past two months, wiping out $500bn (€346bn, £281bn) of shareholders’ capital, almost equal to Russia’s international currency reserves of $580bn. During the week of the invasion, capital outflow reached $16bn, causing a sudden domestic credit squeeze. Two wealthy Russians have been identified as among the biggest sellers of Gazprom stock . They cannot have been happy with Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister. Indeed, Mr Putin’s boasts about Moscow as a new global financial centre and the rouble as a coming international reserve currency have become a sad joke.
These substantial losses are likely to last. In a note to investors, UBS, the investment bank, explains that the old paradigm – that investment in Russia carries high political risk – has returned. UBS cut its price targets on Russian companies by an average of 20 per cent or a market value of $300bn.
Russia’s economic strength should not be exaggerated. Its gross domestic product has jumped from $200bn in 1999 to an estimated $1,700bn this year, yet it accounts for only 2.8 per cent of the world’s GDP. Despite the Georgian success, Russia’s military is under-resourced. Official military spending is $48bn, or 7 per cent of US defence spending. With oil and natural gas accounting for 60 per cent of its exports, Russia is dependent on world energy prices, which are falling. Its energy production is stagnant because of renationalisation and the hostile climate for investors. Corruption is Russia’s worst scourge and the state cannot carry out infrastructure investment because of huge kickbacks. With authoritarianism, economic reforms have stalled but without them high growth rates will not be maintained.
The west faces a choice between sanctions and economic engagement. Trade sanctions would only strengthen the security elite’s hold on the economy and reinforce its dictatorship. It would be wrong to oust Russia from the International Monetary Fund or stop its membership of the World Trade Organisation, because open markets and international standards will only expose Mr Putin and his cronies. Instead, the European Union and US should impose ethical and legal standards that make it costly for Russia to misbehave, targeting big state companies and top officials not private citizens or businessmen.
First, the EU should adopt a common energy policy, imposing the rules of the energy charter – such as transparency, equal investment rights and third-party access to pipelines – on Russia. A united EU has bargaining power as all Russian pipelines outside the former Soviet Union go to Europe.
Second, the European Commission should force Gazprom to unbundle production and transportation to break up its monopolies. Why does the EC pursue antitrust suits against Microsoft but not Gazprom? It would have to divest its pipeline network outside Russia’s borders, abandon blatant price discrimination and end its planned construction of the Nord Stream and South Stream gas pipelines.
Third, the west should investigate Russian top officials and their trading companies for money-laundering.
Fourth, Russia’s big state companies habitually woo politicians in other countries. Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor, is just Gazprom’s most prominent catch. Western ethical rules for contacts with Russian state companies need to be tightened and the EU should establish American rules for the disclosure of income anybody earns from lobbying. Unethical behaviour is best fought with increased transparency.
Finally, if western intelligence agencies possess evidence of any corruption by Mr Putin or his cronies they should publish it. Nothing would undermine him more in Russian eyes than verified facts about corruption. Russia and its leaders are quite vulnerable, but to be effective the west needs to unite.
The writer is a senior fellow of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He is the author of Russia’s Capitalist Revolution: Why Market Reform Succeeded and Democracy Failed
----------------------------------
Germany considers strategic reserve
By Chris Bryant in Berlin
Published: September 4 2008 20:18 | Last updated: September 4 2008 20:18
Germany is considering the construction of a strategic gas reserve to guard against a cut in supplies, a sign of growing anxiety in Berlin over the country’s precarious dependence on Russian energy.
Germany relies on Russia for more than 40 per cent of its natural gas imports but, unlike for oil, there is currently no national gas reserve to provide a back-up in the event of a supply shock.
Energy companies argue their long-dated contracts mean such a security system is unnecessary but the government no longer appears as convinced.
“The conflict in Georgia has demonstrated that also with respect to gas we cannot allow ourselves to develop a more one-sided dependency,” Michael Glos, economics minister, said.
An internal economics ministry document obtained by the Financial Times said it would commission a cost-benefit analysis amid fears that the project could lead to higher gas prices. The ministry plans talks with energy companies and international partners before proceeding, the document says.
The storage of 90 days of gas supplies would cost about €2bn ($2.9bn, £1.6bn) a year, according to a study by the foreign trade association for mineral oil and energy.
Germany faces a looming power gap because of a decision in 2002 to phase out its 17 remaining nuclear plants. “Germany has to be aware that it’s potentially dangerous to be too dependent on one energy exporter, in particular Russia, when there are political disagreements,” said Claudia Kemfert, energy expert at the DIW economic institute in Berlin.
Natural gas imports from Russia could rise still further when North Stream, a pipeline linking Russia and Germany, is due to start pumping supplies in 2011.
Paradoxically, the government considers the pipeline part of its diversification strategy as it will connect the two countries under the Baltic Sea, bypassing potential geopolitical instability in the Caucasus region. The project is controversial, not least because North Stream’s non-executive chairman is Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor, who helped promote the pipeline while in office.
German energy companies have tried to distance themselves from the heated rhetoric directed towards Russia. Eon’s gas arm said the strategic reserve proposals would be a burden on consumers while Wulf Bernotat, Eon’s chief executive, said Russia had reliably delivered gas in the past and would do so in the future.
Government officials, however, are keen to persuade other resource-rich nations to sign energy agreements, in order to diversify German supplies.
Mr Glos recently visited Europe’s largest liquified natural gas plant in Norway, a country that already accounts for more than 30 per cent of Germany’s natural gas imports and which analysts consider a far more benign energy partner than Russia.
------------------------------------
View of the day: Russian rouble
Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank
Published: September 4 2008 16:23 | Last updated: September 4 2008 16:23
The inability of the Russian central bank (CBR) to stem the rouble’s latest bout of weakness is a bad signal for the currency, says Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank.
He notes the CBR failed to stabilise the rouble this week when it fell past the level at which it intervened at the height of the Georgia conflict last month, even though data show the bank’s reserves are still at a comfortably high level.
“The CBR’s motivation to refrain from more effective interventions might be that they do not want to waste reserves but expect the market to normalise soon,” Mr Leuchtmann says. “Such a gamble could fail.”
He says the arguments to sell the rouble stretch far beyond the Georgia crisis and therefore might persist for some time. “Falling oil prices have triggered speculation about the future path of Russia’s current account. The bulk of Russia’s exports are commodity-related, and its oil-production costs are among the highest in the world. That means any fall in the oil price hits Russia’s export margin and therefore the current account.”
He says it is also possible that the CBR finds some degree of rouble weakness welcome, given the risk factors that stem from falling oil prices and the new scepticism of foreign investors. “This strategy is also risky. The recent swift depreciation has opened a Pandora’s box which might be difficult, and costly, to close at a future point when the CBR decides the depreciation is sufficient.”
------------------------------------
Russia Ruble's `Georgia' Drop Offers Value, Morgan Stanley Says
By Garfield Reynolds
Enlarge Image/Details
Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy three-month call options on the ruble against the central bank's euro-dollar basket because the currency may rebound from a record low as Bank Rossii uses its $583 billion of reserves to curb declines, Morgan Stanley said.
The ruble slid 0.6 percent to 30.40 against the basket yesterday, after weakening 1.3 percent Sept. 3, its biggest one-day decline since the mechanism was introduced in February 2005. Bank Rossii, the central bank, monitors the ruble against a basket calculated by multiplying the ruble's rate to the dollar by 0.55, the euro rate by 0.45, then adding them.
Investors took $30 billion out of Russia since the Aug. 8 start of its five-day war with Georgia, according to BNP Paribas SA, with concern heightened by U.S. and European condemnation. The ruble should rebound against the euro and dollar once the central bank deploys its foreign-exchange reserves, the world's third-biggest, Morgan Stanley said. The Financial Times yesterday said Bank Rossii started selling dollars.
``The central bank has ample reserves and should be able to corral further ruble weakness,'' said Ronald Leven, a New York- based analyst at Morgan Stanley. ``With deviations from the government target basket at extremes and ruble carry advantage at multiyear highs, we believe it is attractive to go long via options.''
Call Options
Investors should purchase call options giving them the right to buy Russian rubles in three months at a similar price to the current spot market, Leven wrote in a client note dated yesterday. They should also sell call options of the same maturity at a strike price of 29.50 to reduce the cost of the bet, he said.
Call options give the buyer the right -- but not the obligation -- to buy an asset at a pre-agreed price on a set date. By selling a call option, the investor is taking a bet the contract won't be exercised, allowing them to keep as profit the premium paid for the option.
The trade offers a potential return of about 3 percent, Leven said. Investors are better putting their money into options because of the volatile political situation in the region, he said.
Russia's central bank sold as much as $4 billion in reserves yesterday to support the ruble as investors responded to Russia's war with Georgia, the Financial Times reported, citing unidentified currency dealers.
No Oil Link
The currency's declines weren't closely linked to the drop in prices for crude oil, Russia's biggest export earner. Morgan Stanley's Leven said. The ruble's exchange rates against the euro and dollar haven't fluctuated in line with oil for most of this year, he said. Russia is the world's second-biggest oil exporter.
The ruble headed for its biggest weekly drop against the dollar since the second week of August, slipping 3.4 percent to 25.4872 per dollar by 11:28 a.m. in Tokyo, from 24.6450 on Aug. 29. It reached 25.7209, the weakest since Sept. 11, 2007. It dropped to 36.4137 per euro, from 36.1628 late last week.
Bank Rossii keeps the ruble within a trading band against the basket to limit the impact of fluctuations on the competitiveness of Russian exports. It has been widening the band since mid-May to introduce volatility into the currency and prepare it for a free float by 2011.
Russian peacekeepers are still in parts of Georgia, maintaining what the government calls a buffer zone around South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two Georgian separatist regions whose independence Russia recognized last month. The U.S. and the European Union have demanded Russian soldiers withdraw to their pre-war positions.
U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney met Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in the capital, Tbilisi, yesterday. He condemned Russia's ``invasion'' of Georgia and said that the U.S. is still ``fully committed'' to Georgia's bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Russia opposes Georgia's and Ukraine's NATO membership bids.
---------------------------------
Baptism of fire for US envoy to Nato
By James Blitz in Brussels
Published: September 4 2008 18:42 | Last updated: September 4 2008 18:42
Kurt Volker, the new US ambassador to Nato, hit the ground running when he took over the job in August.
Arriving at Nato headquarters in Brussels on August 12, four days after the Russia-Georgia conflict broke out, he was rushed straight into a meeting of Nato ambassadors to discuss the crisis. At the end of a hectic day he finally got to see the inside of his official residence – only to find US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice’s office on the phone.
Even so, if there is one man likely to be unfazed by such a baptism of fire it is the 43-year-old Mr Volker. He is no stranger to Nato. As an adviser to Lord Roberston, the former Nato secretary-general, he got to know the institution well and its significance. It is at the heart of the dispute over Russia; it is driving the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan; and, with France now set to join the integrated military structure next year, Nato’s importance is being greatly enhanced.
In an interview with the Financial Times this week, Mr Volker’s focus was very much on how the defence alliance responds to the crisis in Georgia.
One issue he raised, for example, was that Nato must begin looking at ways to enhance its military commitment to defend the three Baltic states from attack following Russia’s incursion into Georgia .
Mr Volker said Nato was firmly committed to defending the Baltic states from attack because they were signatories to the alliance’s Article 5, which commits countries to come to the defence of fellow members. He said that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were concerned by Russia’s actions in Georgia. The alliance, he said, must therefore send signals in the area of military “planning and exercising” that it intended to help to shore them up.
Mr Volker said: “Those countries are members of Nato. So if there is any attack on those countries we will all respond . . . But they are feeling a little rattled by seeing Russia use military force to invade a sovereign, small neighbouring country. We do need to send signals to shore them up a little bit.”
He added: “We will have to make sure Nato is postured the right way so that the Article 5 commitment is realisable, not just as a political matter but as a military matter too. We need to do what Nato ought to do, not in a provocative way and not in a rushed and hasty way. But Nato being credible is what’s important.”
Mr Volker said the weeks since the August 8 incursion had shown the US and European Union working closely. “Everyone is committed to sticking together,” he said, noting the outcome of this week’s EU emergency summit had been well received in Washington. “Even if there is a nuance or difference between this person or that person we are consciously avoiding emphasising the differences and emphasising the commonality.”
However, he said the US would make the case for Georgia and Ukraine to take another big step towards Nato membership in December – joining the alliance Membership Action Plan – despite the firm opposition of states such as France and Germany .
“When [Nato] leaders met in April, they not only said Georgia and Ukraine would become members of Nato but that MAP was the logical next step; and we will review this in December. Since April, what we have seen has increased in Georgia’s mind why it [MAP status] is important to them. And it has also become a higher political symbol, I think, to say Nato is moving ahead in its relationship with Georgia.”
Some diplomats argue that the US may not be able to press home the case for MAP membership because the Bush administration will be on the verge of leaving office. But Mr Volker insisted there was support across the US political divide for bringing Georgia and Ukraine into Nato.
“When you look at the two [presidential] campaigns they have both been no less strong on the issue, be it [John] McCain or [Barack] Obama. The US has a very unified position on this across the spectrum. Nato has always been an area that has bi-partisan political support – be it Nato enlargement, operations in Afghanistan or operations in Kosovo.”
Mr Volker said Nato was beginning to look at how to get the Georgian military back on its feet after the blow it had suffered in the recent conflict. He said no decisions had yet been taken, but the US would want Nato to look at a range of concrete measures. These included helping Georgia to define a national military strategy and structure for a professional defence force; helping to re-establish strong command control and communications in the armed forces; providing military leadership training; and helping to establish strong co-ordinated airspace management.
On Ukraine, meanwhile, he said Nato must offer broader support. “The political signal to Ukraine has to be one that is positive. Similarly, Moldova needs to know that we are interested in their sovereignty and independence. Territorial integrity is important for these countries because their borders were drawn under the Soviet Union and [Vladimir ] Putin has called a lot of them into question.”
Mr Volker said the broad objective of the west’s policy must be “to have a positive relationship with Russia as a partner. You don’t want to rush into a conflict with Russia, you don’t want to escalate in a military fashion, you don’t want to shut off the means of communicating with Russia.” But he said Moscow “has got to be a partner that’s playing by 21st century rules”.
Alongside Russia , Nato’s military effort in Afghanistan is a central focus for the new ambassador. Mr Volker said there had been a huge surge in the military commitment to Afghanistan this year, but that there was still much to do. He acknowledged, for example, that the level of activity by insurgents was higher this year than it was in 2007 – and touching areas that were a little calmer.
“There has been a big surge in capability. But it hasn’t been enough and we still need to have more success on the military side, the civilian reconstruction side and the counter narcotics side – and stronger efforts from the Afghan government itself,” he said.
If there was good news on the Afghan front it was that public opinion across Nato members states was far more sympathetic about the war than it was this time last year. “People recognise that we are in Afghanistan for the right reasons: it’s important to our own countries, it’s important to the Afghan people and they want us there and it’s the right effort.”
Even so, there are still issues to tackle. One he hopes to see resolved is the determination of many states to have caveats vetoing the movement of their troops to dangerous areas. “The problem you have is that when you’ve a situation where some allies – like the Dutch and the Canadians – are taking on the heaviest risks and other are preventing their forces from taking on heavier risk, that creates a dynamic of tension in the alliance. What we would like to see is an increase in operational flexibility; we would like to see increasing political solidarity over time in Nato – people feeling we are in this together and we are supporting each other.”
What cannot be denied, however, is the growing profile for Nato epitomised by France’s decision to join the integrated military structure next year. The French move had less impact militarily than one might think, he said, because they were already doing a lot operationally. “But politically it is critically important because we have France choosing to invest politically in Nato. And parallel to that you have the US and others saying we fully support the EU taking on security tasks.”
His hope is that France’s move – and the range of geopolitical crises now hitting the headlines – will make Europeans think harder about boosting defence spending. “I think in the 1990s and early 2000s there was a diminishing awareness in Europe of the connection between the well-being and prosperity that Europe enjoys and the need for continued investment in security. Defence budgets were sinking, Nato was off the radar screen, there was a sense that Europe was simply prosperous and democratic and the security elements were less important.
However, that has changed. “The fact of the French integration as well as the events we are seeing in the world – be it Afghanistan and Georgia – are probably reminding people that this investment in security is important.” He hoped, at any rate that this will be a message that comes out of next year’s 60th anniversary summit for the Nato alliance.
----------------------------------
The Short View: Smiling dollar
By John Authers, Investment Editor
Published: September 4 2008 20:42 | Last updated: September 4 2008 20:42
The dollar is smiling. A graph of the dollar against a trade weighted index this year looks like a smile – dipping 7 per cent, then making a long flat curve before curling up into a big grin in the past few weeks, when it has risen 10 per cent. It is now up for the year.
To explain this, the so called Dollar Smile Hypothesis advanced by Stephen Jen, Morgan Stanley’s currency strategist, is useful. This held that the dollar had a “convex” relationship to US economic growth.
On this theory, if the US economy goes into a severe decline, or hard landing, then the dollar should rise. The rest of the world suffers, and the dollar is a relative safe haven.
If the US economy goes on a growth spurt, outpacing the rest of the world, the dollar gains.
But between these two outcomes lies a “soft landing”, where the US economy muddles through. If this happens, the dollar gets pummelled. Other countries have higher interest rates, and there is nothing to defend the dollar.
It is tempting to believe, given the second quarter’s eye-catching contrast between decent economic growth in the US and outright contraction in Germany, that the dollar’s rally is because of a “hard take-off”.
But it is more likely that we are on the other side of the “smile”. The US’s problems have infected other economies (see Thursday’s growth forecasts from the European Central Bank). That helped the dollar.
The “muddle through” US scenario looks plausible from surveys of economic activity. But this may only be because the stimuli administered, such as tax rebates, lower interest rates and the cheap dollar itself have delayed the inevitable.
Initial jobless claims data are now at their highest in five years and rising steadily. This suggests the US is shedding jobs. So Friday’s US payrolls data should help explain why the dollar is smiling.
----------------------------------
ECB moves to cut lending risk
By Paul J Davies, Ralph Atkins and Anousha Sakoui
Published: September 5 2008 00:01 | Last updated: September 5 2008 00:01
The radical action by the European Central Bank on its rules for providing liquidity to the banking sector caught virtually everyone by surprise on Thursday, judging by the huge volume of analyst comment and the rush to participate in conference calls.
Markets reacted badly as participants sold bank stocks or bought protection against debt defaults and then waded through the technical jargon to extract the real impact.
One thing was immediately clear: the cost of raising funds from the ECB against any kind of asset-backed bond or unsecured bank debt will rise, once the rules are implemented in February. And there were broader concerns that the cost of credit would rise once again in Europe, putting fresh strains on the financial system.
Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, said the bank’s main aim was to protect the euro system, but he hoped that as a consequence banks would be spurred to make greater efforts to raise funding in the open markets once more.
“[The changes] were designed to refine particular elements of our risk control framework: we wanted to be sure that the euro system remains adequately protected,” he said. “As a byproduct ... we will have a positive impact on helping the market to be more active. But I would say that we have been reasoning very, very much ... with a view of optimising our risk control.”
The ECB has long prided itself on the flexibility and breadth of its repo operations and the fact that it was not forced to change or loosen its rules to help banks overcome the liquidity squeeze last year. The US Federal Reserve and later the Bank of England both had to adopt new practices.
However, Thursday’s tightening of the rules – which will see the ECB hand over less money per unit of affected collateral and exclude some bonds where the underlying loans are not in euros – has been brewing since May at least.
There were growing concerns that banks could be “gaming the system”, in the words of one ECB governing council member, by creating bonds specifically for repo purposes that were riskier than the central bank ever envisaged.
Examples included Macquarie Bank of Australia creating bonds backed by Australian car loans that could be used at the ECB, and both Lehman Brothers of the US and Glitnir of Iceland creating collateralised loan obligations, backed by pools of risky buy-out debt, which were eligible.
There were also concerns that banks were coming to rely on cheap ECB funding rather than facing up to the higher costs they were likely to have to pay for the foreseeable future.
But it is precisely because of the increased reliance of some banks on ECB funding that some analysts raised concerns about the impact of this radical move.
“I trust that the changes have been calibrated with extreme care, but their impact will need to be closely monitored, given the already stressed conditions of financial systems,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit.
Ralf Preusser, fixed-income strategist at Deutsche Bank, said the changes were more radical than he expected, but the February inception date weakened the near-term impact.
“These reforms will not aid the recovery of credit growth in 2009 and therefore implicitly increase the risk of rate cuts in 2009,” he said.
The most straightforward changes were an increase in the haircuts, or discount, applied to the worth of collateral. For asset-backed securities, such as mortgage-backed bonds, this was increased to a flat rate of 12 per cent from a base of 2 per cent. If a bank has created such a bond and kept it on balance sheet for repo purposes, a further 5 per cent haircut is added.
For normal unsecured bank debt, the haircut is also increased by 5 percentage points from a 1.5 per cent base. Birgit Specht, securitised products strategist at Citigroup, thought this was the most important change given that such bonds made up the largest single class of collateral pledged with the ECB.
“The message is clear that the ECB wants to reduce banks’ dependence on this facility and more generally wants to encourage the issuance of longer maturity term debt in preference to relying on short-term repo funding.”
However, the changes related to the currency of assets underlying ABS bonds are also hugely important, particularly to UK banks and are likely immediately to put paid to the plans of Nationwide building society to open a Dublin office mainly to gain access to ECB funding.
-----------------------------------
Banks reel as ECB shifts funding rules
Bank stocks in Europe and the UK fell sharply and the risk of owning their debt leapt on Thursday after the ECB declared a crackdown on abuses of its bank liquidity operations. Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, used his regular interest rate conference to announce bigger rule changes than expected. These will affect financial firms that have developed a dependence on cheap funding from the bank. Trichet announced measures to increase the cost of using asset-backed securities to obtain ECB funds and to exclude some such deals when underlying mortgages or other loans are not denominated in euros. The move follows a warning by ECB council member Yves Mersch last month on the “dangers of gaming the system”. The changes, effective Feb 1, include increases in the average “haircuts” applied to asset-backed securities. See comment on the ECB move at FT Alphaville.
-------------------------------------
Bank run
HBOS - 7.5%
BARC - 5.8%
LLOYDS - 5.5%
RBS - 4.5%
STAN - 4.5%
The ECB has boosted the haircut on its emergency funding facility. The rumour that it would was doing the rounds yesterday.
It’s perhaps the first big signal that the central bank cash-flow spigot is being turned off. From the ECB (emphasis ours):
As can be seen from the table, assets in new liquidity category V (former liquidity category IV) will be subject to a haircut of 12% regardless of their residual maturity and coupon structure. This corresponds to the level of haircuts that was previously assigned to assets in this liquidity category with a fixed coupon and a residual maturity of over ten years. Furthermore, assets in this liquidity category that are given a theoretical value (in accordance with Section 6.5 of the “General Documentation”) will be subject to an additional valuation haircut. This haircut will be applied directly to the theoretical value of the asset in the form of a valuation markdown of 5%, which corresponds to an additional haircut of 4.4%.
CDS markets meanwhile, are rocketing. The cost of protecting European bank debt is at its highest since early April. We’re in a Bear Stearns market.
The outlook for for Wall Street? Also grim. Lehman, for one, was rumoured to be a favourite user of the Frankfurt cash exchange ECB. LEH is off 6 per cent.
And from Bill Gross at Pimco today:
This rarely observed systematic debt liquidation is what confronts the US and perhaps even the global financial system at the current time. Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami. Central bankers, of course, adopting the cloak and demeanour of firefighters or perhaps lifeguards, have been hard at work over the past 12 months to contain the damage. And the private market, in its attempt to anticipate a bear market bottom and snap up “bargains,” has been constructive as well. Over $400 billion in bank- and finance-related capital has been raised during the past year, a decent amount of it, by the way, having been bought by yours truly and my associates at PIMCO. Too bad for us and for everyone else who bought too soon. There are few of these deals now priced at par or above, which is bondspeak for “they are all underwater.” We, as well as our SWF and central bank counterparts, are reluctant to make additional commitments.
-------------------------------
EU cross-border payments nearer
By Nikki Tait in Brussels
Published: September 4 2008 19:39 | Last updated: September 4 2008 19:39
The prospect of bank customers being able to make direct debit payments across European borders edged closer on Thursday when EU regulators said that limited fees could be permitted to help launch the service.
In a joint statement, the European Commission and the European Central Bank said they would be prepared to support the idea of a so-called “multilateral interchange fee” for cross-border direct debits on condition that these fees were “objectively justified” and applied for a limited period only.
Interchange fees are charged per payment at retail outlets when transactions are processed.
The idea of encouraging cross-border direct debits – so that a customer in Belgium, say, could pay monthly utility bills in France – is a part of the Single Euro Payments Area (or Sepa) project. Sepa aims to make electronic payments across the euro area as straightforward as domestic transactions.
Although Sepa is a private project developed by European banks, it is heavily supported by the EU, which sees it as being in line with single market principles.
Sepa arrangements for credit transfers have already been introduced, and direct debit facilities are supposed to be available by November 2009. But in some countries – such as France and Italy – banks currently charge interchange fees on domestic direct debit transactions, and disputes over the extent to which these are compatible with EU competition rules have stalled progress.
“It would not be acceptable that bankers are not able to deliver the Sepa direct debits by November 2009. A European solution has to be found by the banks which is also agreeable to the competition authorities,” said Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerall, ECB executive board member.
In yesterday’s announcement, Neelie Kroes, EU competition commissioner, acknowledged that it might be necessary to have interchange fees for cross-border Sepa direct debits “in the very initial stage”. But she insisted that these would have to be “strictly limited in time” and “not aimed at providing additional profits to banks”.
The European Banking Federation said it only learnt of the proposal on Wednesday evening, but that it appeared to be a positive sign, which could pave the way for more discussions.
---------------------------------
The Bank must act to end the euro’s wild rise
By Paul De Grauwe
Published: September 4 2008 18:51 | Last updated: September 4 2008 18:51
The downturn of economic activity in the eurozone has come as a surprise to many observers. The credit crisis appeared to be less severe in the eurozone than in the US and, apart from Spain and Ireland, none of the eurozone member countries experienced serious problems in the housing market. Yet the eurozone now comes close to a full-fledged recession. What happened to cause such a rapid and intense deterioration in the eurozone business cycle? The key to answering this question is the exchange rate of the euro.
From the start of 2007 until July 2008 the euro appreciated by about 14 per cent on average against its main trading partners. This exchange rate shock came on top of a protracted appreciation in the preceding five years. The second shock hitting the eurozone was the doubling of crude oil prices since early 2007.
The effect of the exchange rate shock on the profitability of the eurozone companies that compete internationally has been of the same order of magnitude as the oil price shock. Take an average eurozone exporting company selling a product worth €100 ($144, £81). Energy costs prior to the oil price shock represented €10. Now comes the doubling of oil prices leading to a doubling of the energy costs to €20. This would squeeze profits by the same amount, unless the company could raise its price in foreign markets. But let us assume the exporting firm “priced to market” so as not to lose market share.
Now let us look at the implication of the appreciation of the euro during the same period. Our prototype exporting company has experienced a drop in revenues of 14 per cent; that is, the euro value of its export dropped from €100 to €88. This squeezed profits even more than the doubling of the oil price. Our company recuperated part of the revenue loss because the euro appreciation led to a drop in the euro price of oil, reducing the energy cost. But this effect was small given that the energy costs are a relatively small fraction of the total value of the product.
There are many other effects of these two shocks, but they all point to the same conclusion. Since the start of 2007 the export sector in the eurozone has been hit by a twin shock – an oil price shock and an exchange rate shock – of approximately equal magnitudes. These two shocks squeezed profits of exporting firms twice.
The opposite has happened in the US since the start of 2007. The effect of the oil price shock on export companies’ profitability was fully compensated by the depreciation of the dollar, which on average amounted to 11 per cent against the big trading partners. Thus the dollar depreciation allowed the US export companies to offset the profit squeeze resulting from higher oil prices. No wonder that the US export sector is booming and the exports of the eurozone countries are stalling.
The oil price shock was an event that eurozone policymakers could not influence. The same cannot be said of the exchange rate shock. This occurred because the eurozone monetary authority, the European Central Bank, allowed it to happen. The simple fact is that the ECB neglected the exchange rate. The ECB was influenced by a theory that says that exchange markets are efficient and that therefore the exchange rate always reflects economic fundamentals. In this view it is both undesirable and futile to fight market forces, which are always right. In addition, the ECB managed to sell a minimalist interpretation of its mandate. In this view, the ECB is responsible only for price stability. Only if exchange rate movements threaten price stability are they worth looking into.
Since 2001, the euro has more than doubled in value against the dollar. This appreciation can be interpreted only as a bubble driven by speculation gone wild. During the whole period of massive euro appreciation, the ECB stood by and watched approvingly. It did not threaten price stability so there was no reason to do anything.
This neglect harms the competitiveness of the eurozone export sector and is an important cause of the slowdown in economic activity. The ECB has abdicated its responsibility to intervene in the foreign exchange market and to oppose exchange rate developments that are out of touch with economic forces. It is time to revise this minimalist view of its responsibilities. One way the ECB could do this today is by giving a forceful signal (including intervention) aimed at reinforcing the recent small downward correction in the value of the euro.
The writer is professor of economics at the university of Leuven and Centre for European Policy Studies
-------------------------------
Top food exporters ease restrictions
By Javier Blas in London
Published: September 4 2008 17:35 | Last updated: September 4 2008 17:35
Top food-exporting countries including India and Kazakhstan have relaxed their trade restrictions on agricultural commodities such as rice and wheat in a move that could help to ease a year-long food crisis.
India on Thursday said it would allow exports of top-grade aromatic rice from mid-October, although it imposed a minimum price of $1,200 (€836, £679) a tonne.
The move is the first easing of India’s rice trade restrictions since the country imposed an export ban on non-basmati rice in April.
Kazakhstan, one of the world’s 10 largest wheat exporters, allowed its suspension of overseas wheat sales, in place since late April, to expire on Monday.
However, it imposed a fresh ban on its less significant soya exports.
Earlier this year, a series of trade restrictions – from Argentina banning soya exports, to Russia stopping shipments of wheat – sent food prices soaring and triggered panic buying by importers concerned about scarce supplies.
The restrictions were made in an effort to keep local markets well supplied in the face of sharply rising food prices.
The moves by India and Kazakhstan follow decisions by Vietnam, Ukraine and Russia to relax or even remove their bans on agricultural commodities exports and are helping to improve global food supplies, say analysts.
Concepción Calpe, an economist at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation in Rome, said while the supply of agricultural commodities such as rice was improving, the food supply system was still under stress. “We are still very cautious,” she said.
The monthly FAO food index, a global benchmark for agricultural commodities wholesale prices, fell in August to 213 points, the lowest level since January but still up 37 per cent over the past 12 months.
New Delhi’s decision is likely to be welcomed by Middle East countries, traditional buyers of premium rice. India’s higher grade varieties of rice are usually exported, with the local market absorbing medium and low grades.
Rice traders warned that the move was not an indication that all India’s rice exports were about to be resumed. In an average year, India is the world’s third-largest rice exporter, after Thailand and Vietnam. Ben Savage, of Jackson Son & Co, the London-based rice brokerage, said India was likely to maintain its rice trade restrictions until next year due to the political sensitivity to high inflation ahead of a general election.
“However, India could grant further concessions to export rice to some friendly countries,” Mr Savage said.
Thai medium-quality rice, the global benchmark, was on Thursday at about $730 a tonne, down from a record of more than $1,100 a tonne in May but still significantly higher than the $200-$300 range during 2000-07.
--------------------------------
Mortgages arrears show sharp rise
By Jane Croft, Retail Banking Correspondent
Published: September 5 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 5 2008 03:00
Arrears and repossessions among prime mortgage borrowers jumped sharply in the second quarter, according to a report by Moody's which suggests that home loans are deteriorating even among borrowers with good credit records.
Mortgages held by Granite, the securitisation vehicle of Northern Rock, had the second-worst performance of those studied by Moody's.
The credit rating agency examined the performance of more than 14 mortgage securitisations representing billions of pounds of home loans issued by Britain's biggest banks.
It found the number of borrowers in serious arrears - more than 90 days - rose to 0.90 per cent of all mortgage loans, up from 0.60 per cent in 2007's second quarter.
Moody's also found that the number of homes being repossessed had more than doubled to 0.082 per cent of home loans in the second quarter - up sharply from 0.037 per cent in the same period of last year.
The average loan to value among the mortgages studied was about 66 per cent, again suggesting the loans are less risky than those of borrowers with small deposits or patchy credit records.
"The percentage of mortgage loans greater than 90 days in arrears has reached the highest level of recent years," says Daron Kularatnam, a Moody's senior associate and co-author of the report.
The worst performances came from the Mound securitisation by Bank of Scotland, part of HBOS, and Northern Rock's Granite. The Mound had 4.1 per cent of its loans in serious arrears of more than 90 days, while Granite had 1.3 per cent in that category.
Moody's said a large number of borrowers are due to come off cheaper, fixed rate mortgages this year and will have to remortgage to more expensive deals.
"The UK mortgage debt service ratio remains elevated. The 'payment shock' to those mortgage holders coming off the fixed interest rate period of their mortgages may increase stress on householders," said Nitesh Shah, a Moody's economist and co-author of the report.
Moody's said that arrears had a strong and lagged relationship to economic growth.
"Arrears are thus expected to continue rising for some time. While the increase in delinquencies has been relatively mild so far, the rise in repossessions has been marked," the report said.
"This may be an indication that lending organisations are reverting to court filings for repossessions more quickly than before in order to sell the collateral from problem loans before house prices fall further."
Moody's report backs up findings from rival rating agency Standard & Poor's, which said last week that arrears were rising quickly among prime mortgages and non-conforming mortgages.
The S&P report showed serious delinquencies were 1.0 per cent of total portfolios - a number which S&P said was still very small.
----------------------------------
Luxury marques lose their shine for buyers reluctant to flaunt it
By John Reed
Published: September 5 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 5 2008 03:00
Britain's car market suffered its slowest August in 42 years, with some of the biggest drops in sales reported for luxury brands.
Analysts attributed the decline in sales to flagging consumer confidence, rising petrol prices and car taxes, and some buyers' reluctance to flaunt their wealth during difficult economic times.
UK car registrations tumbled by 18.6 per cent last month, mirroring the sharp slowdown in August vehicle sales already reported in the US, Germany, Spain and other large countries.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders attributed the drop to "deepening concerns over the state of the economy" and revised its full-year forecasts for new car sales down to 2.26m this year and 2.16m in 2009.
August is traditionally a slow selling month, but the fall in sales last month alone accounts for a quarter of the drop in UK car volumes so far this year.
The slowdown is hitting carmakers across the board. Fiat, Ford Motor, Renault, and Toyota were among the marques with lower sales, according to the SMMT.
However, high-end brands suffered some of the biggest drops in registrations.
Aston Martins were down by 67 per cent, Jaguars by 41 per cent, and Porsches fell by 58 per cent.
Even as the credit crunch began to bite last year in Britain and the US, many luxury brands - including Bentley and bigger-volume marques such as BMW and Mercedes - reported record sales at home and around the world.
But all this is changing as wealthy buyers draw in their horns.
Analysts say the pullback has as much to do with buyers' concerns about their image as it does with higher petrol prices or rising carbon dioxide-related motoring taxes in the UK and around the rest of Europe.
While an Aston Martin or a Bentley in the company parking lot might be a suitable trophy asset in good times, it could be a liability at a time when executives are reining in costs or sacking staff.
"At the high end there are a number of people who are interested in buying cars, but are holding off," says Sue Robinson, director of the National Franchised Dealers' Association.
"The idea of them buying a Bentley when they are looking at cutting costs in the company is difficult."
The downsizing is part of an industry-wide, global trend out of larger vehicles and into smaller ones, which is also seeing Americans abandon sports utility vehicles and pick-up trucks in record numbers.
In the UK, market share for very small cars doubled in August, and the small Opel Corsa and Ford Focus models were the two top-selling cars.
But the speed of the market shift poses special challenges to Britain's stable of high-end and sporty brands, from Jaguar and Land Rover to Aston Martin.
The move out of luxury also has to do with manufacturers' own long-term strategy in difficult times. Premium carmakers are more reluctant to offer discounts than mass-market brands, and try to deliver no more cars to dealers than their customers demand to avoid flooding the market and hurting resale values.
At the very top end of low-volume, high-luxury saloons and supercars priced at £150,000 or more, sales appear to be resilient. Rolls- Royce and Ferrari both say their global sales are holding up.
"Our customers are extremely wealthy and remain extremely wealthy," says Graham Biggs, Rolls-Royce spokesman. "They may have taken a downturn in the value of their stocks, but they have strong financial positions."
He added: "We are doing well on a worldwide basis, but we aren't complacent." The brand says its sales are up 60 per cent on last year, helped by the introduction of a new model, the Drophead Coupé.
Ferrari reported a 7 per cent second-quarter rise in its global sales, mainly due to strong sales in emerging markets. The brand's famously long waiting lists may have helped buffer it from the shocks hurting its competitors.
Bentley also says sales of its cars priced at £150,000 or more, such as its Azure and Brooklands models, remain strong, up about 10 per cent on last year. However, sales of its lower-priced models like the GT Convertible have fallen.
Despite the recent drop in oil prices, luxury carmakers are preparing themselves for what appears to be a permanent shift by consumers into lower-CO 2 cars - if not necessarily smaller or lower-priced.
Bentley says that most of its customers own four or five cars and care more about their peers' perceptions than the price of petrol.
"Our customers do not really care if the fuel price is a little higher or not, [but] they do care whether they are seen as unacceptable environmentally or not," says Franz-Josef Paefgen, the brand's chief executive. "That is a much bigger factor, and that's why we have to respond."
Bentley this year outlined an environmental strategy that will see it cut its CO 2 emissions by at least 15 per cent across its range by 2012.
---------------------------------
Florida Real Estate Bottom Signaled by Sale of Distressed Condo
By Bob Ivry
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of distressed Miami properties have begun, signaling a bottom for south Florida's real estate market and the end of waiting for vulture funds armed with about $30 billion to spend.
The sale of 120 condominiums last month to a Philadelphia private equity firm and Related Group of Florida, a development company led by Jorge Perez, ``broke the logjam'' for investors targeting the oversupply of condos in downtown Miami, said Peter Zalewski, owner of the Condo Vultures LLC consulting firm in Bal Harbour, Florida.
Regional and community lenders are starting to market properties in Miami, where the median condo price in July fell 19 percent from a year earlier, according to the Florida Association of Realtors in Orlando. Banks that were reluctant to take real estate-related writedowns may be forced by regulators to sell homes that sit empty and mortgage notes that aren't being paid, said Jack McCabe, founder of McCabe Research & Consulting LLC in Deerfield Beach, Florida.
``There's a purging going on,'' McCabe said. ``It's my belief that the vulture buyers would form the bottom of the real estate market, and we're almost there. That bottom may last for three years as foreclosure sales go on.''
McCabe estimates that at least $30 billion has been earmarked by funds to buy distressed Florida real estate. Some investors have been waiting almost three years to buy, he said.
Non-Performing Loans
Wachovia Corp., based in Charlotte, North Carolina, and Birmingham, Alabama-based Regions Financial Corp. have sold real estate loans that were non-performing, or stopped paying, McCabe said.
At BankUnited Financial Corp., Florida's largest bank, non- performing real estate loans jumped to 8.3 percent in the second quarter from 1.5 percent in the third quarter of 2007, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Regulators told the Coral Gables, Florida-based bank it may lose its ``well-capitalized'' designation unless it attracts at least $400 million, the company said last week.
``Banks may be reluctant to make a deal because they want to preserve cash,'' said Kenneth Thomas, an independent bank consultant and economist in Miami. ``If they don't make the deal they don't have to write down their capital.''
BankUnited spokeswoman Melissa Gracey declined to comment.
Fifteen percent of the real estate loans written by closely held, Miami-based Ocean Bank weren't being paid in the second quarter of 2008, compared with 2.4 percent a year earlier, according to the bank's filings with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Selling Bad Loans
Ocean Bank started selling bad loans and foreclosed properties in the last three months of 2007, according to spokesman Ray Casas.
``We took a very hard look at our portfolio and, as appropriate, sold notes and foreclosed properties,'' Casas said. ``The bank has been very aggressive in doing that.''
Bad real estate loans increased five-fold at BankAtlantic Bancorp Inc., based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, according to the bank's FDIC filings. In the second quarter, 1.5 percent of the loans weren't paying, compared with 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2007.
Calls seeking comment from BankAtlantic were not returned.
``Banks are at the point where they have to take a hit,'' said Michael Klinger, managing member of Saber Real Estate Advisors LLC in Aventura, Florida, a developer and opportunity fund. ``A lot of them were avoiding the problem because they don't know what to do with the real estate and they don't want to admit and deal with their problems. They figured time would make things better.''
Banks have begun circulating lists of real estate loans for sale, Klinger said.
Inventory
With 11,551 condo units in the 1,040-acre downtown Miami area expected to be completed this year, it would take five years to sell them off at the current sales pace, according to Brad Hunter, regional director at the MetroStudy real estate research firm in West Palm Beach.
In July, one in every 186 homeowners in Florida either had their home repossessed by a lender bank, received a notice of default or were issued a warning that their house was going on the auction block for failure to make monthly mortgage payments, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of real estate data. That foreclosure rate, a 139 percent increase from July 2007, ranked the state third in the country behind Nevada and California.
Lewis Goodkin, president of Miami-based Goodkin Consulting Corp., who has been advising investors on South Florida real estate for 30 years, said a gulf still exists between the banks' offering prices and what the vulture funds want to pay.
`Dam Will Break'
``The investors are not going to buy unless they get a bargain of 40 to 50 cents on the dollar,'' Goodkin said. ``In some cases, if you bought land for nothing it still might not work. The market is not going back to what it was in 2005.''
Even so, Goodkin said ``the dam will break'' and distressed sales will pick up in the first quarter of 2009 when loan delinquencies pile up.
``There's no way for a bank to avoid these problems,'' he said.
Perez made the bulk purchase, the largest in condo-glutted downtown Miami, in the 50 Biscayne Blvd. tower with Lubert-Adler Partners LP, a private equity firm headed by Dean Adler. The two firms raised $1 billion to buy condos, mortgages and land in Florida, according to a Feb. 13 news release. The price was $30.3 million, about half the cost of individually sold units.
Bulk Purchase
Perez's partnership bought the condos from his own development company and a partner, Atlanta-based Cousins Properties Inc., which built the 54-story tower.
In an earlier bulk purchase at 50 Biscayne, Perez and Cousins sold 26 units in May to 50 Biscayne Suites LLC for $6.1 million. Perez and Cousins paid off their construction loan with LaSalle Bank with the proceeds, according to Zalewski of Condo Vultures.
Paying off the loan allowed Perez to do the recent 120-unit bulk transaction at below-market prices, said Bruce B. Baldwin, a partner with the Miami-based Mase & Lara PA law firm who was not involved in the deal.
Construction lenders require developers to sell condos at a minimum price, he said. Once the developer's debt to the bank is paid, the developer can discount the units, he said.
Perez may follow a similar strategy at the Plaza on Brickell development, two downtown towers with a total of 1,000 units, and other developers may too, Zalewski said.
Cost to Build
Perez and Lupert-Adler paid about $235 a square foot for the 120 units in 50 Biscayne, Zalewski said. That's about half the $454 a square foot paid when three individual units in the building were sold in the fourth quarter of 2007, said MetroStudy's Hunter.
It's also comparable to the $175 to $240 a square foot it costs to build a new condo in downtown Miami, according to Ashley Bosch, president of Miami-based Block Urban Development LLC and president-elect of the Builders Association of South Florida.
Leah Witherspoon, a spokeswoman for Related Group in Miami, said Perez was traveling and couldn't be reached for comment. Calls to Stuart Margulies, director of asset management for Lubert-Adler, were not returned.
Zalewski said he expects two bulk sales of new condos in the next few weeks, one of them for $190 a square foot and the other for $250 to $300 a square foot.
Buying condos in bulk could present legal problems, said Baldwin, the Miami attorney.
Florida law treats anyone who sells more than seven condos of a project with more than 70 units as the developer, making them responsible for construction defects or any lawsuits against the builder, Baldwin said.
``Bulk purchasers need to be wary,'' Baldwin said. ``They can really get spanked.''
-------------------------------
How donors should cap aid in Africa
By Adrian Wood
Published: September 3 2008 18:41 | Last updated: September 3 2008 18:41
Ministers from developed and developing countries are gathered this week in Accra, Ghana’s capital, for the latest high-level forum on aid effectiveness. Learning from past successes and failures, reformers are pressing for more ownership by developing countries of aid relationships, more predictability of aid flows and less fragmentation of aid delivery. This agenda is important. If implemented, these reforms would give the taxpayers of rich countries better value for money and increase the benefits of aid to people in poor ones. Aid cannot on its own cause development, but if properly delivered and well used it can be enormously beneficial.
However, one can have too much of a good thing. Some developing countries, most of them in Africa, have had high levels of aid dependence – in excess of 10 per cent of gross domestic product, or half of government spending – for decades. It is questionable whether this has been helpful.
There are various reasons to be concerned about high aid dependence, but the most worrying is the undermining of good governance by distortion of political accountability. Governments that are highly dependent on aid pay too much attention to donors and too little to their citizens. This might not matter if the interests of citizens and donors were identical. But all donors have some non-developmental motives and, even when they seek to promote development, they have their own priorities. The result is confused and shifting policies, volatile aid and spending and, as a result, slower growth.
I therefore propose that donors collectively set an upper limit on the amount of aid they give to any developing country. This limit should be 50 per cent of the amount of tax revenue that the aid-receiving government raises from its own citizens, by non-coercive means and excluding revenue from oil and minerals.
This would keep the governments of non-mineral countries dependent for revenue mainly on their citizens, and thus give them incentives to pay attention mainly to what citizens want, not donors. It would also encourage governments to raise more taxes from their citizens, since every extra dollar of tax raised would attract a matching increase of 50 cents of aid.
Higher taxes would help because there is strong evidence that the tax relationship is vital for accountable government. “No taxation without representation,” said the early Americans, and the converse also applies. Budget legislation is central to the political process, forcing governments to justify their actions in open debate. At the micro level, tax collection obliges governments to be in direct contact with most of their citizens and companies.
The limit should perhaps be below 50 per cent and certainly not higher. Operating such a limit would raise many technical questions. How should aid and taxes be defined for the purposes of calculating this percentage? Who would monitor and validate the data? Who would determine whether taxes were non-coercive? But practical details of this kind could be sorted out with a bit of effort and ingenuity.
More challenging would be how to phase in this limit. About 30 countries with populations over 1m, of which more than 20 are in Africa, now get aid above this limit and in about half of them aid is more than 100 per cent of taxes. Instant cuts in aid or increases in taxes to get down to the limit of 50 per cent would be damaging, so implementation would need to be gradual, over a period of anything up to a decade. Much further ahead would be the issue of how to phase out the aid, as countries ceased to be poor.
Perhaps the biggest challenge, though, is whether donors, even if most of them agreed on a limit, would be able to act collectively to implement it. There are many donors with different motives, separate delivery mechanisms and no set of common rules – these being among the problems that the Accra meeting is trying to tackle. To get donors to act collectively to cap the amount of aid that they gave to a particular country would not be easy.
Yet the idea is worth exploring. A lot of countries, including some in Africa, still get too little aid – well below my 50 per cent limit and below what they could put to good use – so part of the agenda should still be to increase aid. But the dangers to development of too much aid for too long are sufficiently serious that donors also need to think strategically about upper limits.
The author is professor of international development at the University of Oxford and in 2000-05 was chief economist of the UK’s Department for International Development
--------------------------------
A bid for trust
Published: September 5 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 5 2008 03:00
The spotlight is back on sovereign wealth funds. This week, Abu Dhabi bought an English footballclub and unveiled plans to invest in Hollywood. Now the funds have come up with a voluntary code of conduct supported by countries as diverse as China, East Timor, Libya, Norway, Russia, the US and the United Arab Emirates.
That may suggest an accord that is a mile wide and in inch deep. Thanks to high commodity prices and global imbalances, sovereign wealth funds now control at least $2,000bn in assets. It is widely accepted that the scale of their activities is too important to ignore.
Western governments see public interests threatened, but so far the evidence is scant. The purchase of a football club hardly compromises national security. Moreover, sovereign wealth funds can provide stability: with their investments in UBS, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, funds from Singapore and Abu Dhabi have helped to keep US financial markets afloat during the credit squeeze.
The voluntary code of conduct agreed in Santiago, Chile, covers a set of 24 principles. Before the code is finally signed off, it will be presented to governments for approval. There were hints at the meeting in Santiago that the principles will go some way towards increasing transparency, particularly regarding the operating structures and investment strategies of some of the more opaque funds.
Any judgment on the new code must await publication. But the voluntary rules show that sovereign wealth funds have seized the initiative in order to ease concerns in host countries. Under similar pressure, hedge funds and private equity firms came up with guidelines, but these initiatives remain regional in scope.
Once sovereign wealth funds have signed up to the principles - it is expected that funds of all countries participating in the negotiations will do so - they will be measured against them. The principles thus provide a benchmark for market participants to judge funds against each other and other investors.
Host countries must now be clear on rules for sovereign wealth funds. In principle, there is not much to fear, in particular when funds' objectives are long term and are diversely invested. The main concern is when they try to take controlling stakes in strategic companies.
It is here that recipient countries have to draw a line - one that should also extend to state-owned companies. But transparent and passive funds should not face discrimination, in good times or bad.
-------------------------------
Oil man warns of fresh delay at Kashagan
By Isabel Gorst
Published: September 4 2008 23:05 | Last updated: September 4 2008 23:05
Kazakhstan brushed aside a warning by a senior oil official on Thursday of fresh delays at the troubled Kashagan field, where an international oil group led by Italy’s Eni has pledged to start production in 2013.
Sauat Mynbayev, Kazakhstan’s energy minister, said: “Everything is on schedule” for production to begin in 2013.” He told the Financial Times: “Nobody is interested in a delay at Kashagan, especially the Republic of Kazakhstan.”
Earlier in the day, Timur Kulibayev, an influential Kazakh oilman and the son-in-law of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the Kazakh president, said that extreme winter weather conditions in the north Caspian Sea would prevent the Eni group from launching Kashagan in 2013.
Instead, he told reporters at an oil conference in Astana, Kazakhstan’s capital, that production would begin a few months later in 2014 at a rate of 450,000 barels a day.
Mr Mynbayev said that Mr Kulibayev was “not responsible” for the Kashagan project. Eni declined to comment about Mr Kulibayev’s remarks.
Kazakhstan has set a deadline of October 25 for the Eni group to finalise a settlement of a conflict that erupted at Kashagan last year after the consortium presented a revised development plan, delaying first production by two years until 2010 and doubling the first-phase costs to $20bn.
Separately, Kazakhstan said that the full cost of Kashagan’s development had ballooned to $136bn. This January, the Eni group concluded a framework agreement to compensate Kazakhstan financially for the setbacks at Kashagan and allow Kazmunaigas, the Kazakh state oil company, to enlarge its stake in the project.
In April, however, the consortium confessed to a fresh delay at the field, drawing confusion and anger from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan warned that it would exact heavy penalties from the Eni group if production was delayed beyond 2013.
Mr Mynbayev repeated that message, saying that: “If production begins any later than 2013, the companies will be penalised.” He added: “Nobody wants to lose money.”
Kashagan is central to Kazakhstan’s plan to double oil production and emerge as one of the world’s leading oil exporters. It is also crucial to the world’s future energy security as a new source of non-Opec, non-Russian oil.
Eni’s partners at Kashagan include ExxonMobil, Shell, Total, ConocoPhillips and Inpex of Japan.
------------------------------
Rice’s visit to Libya signals new era
By Daniel Dombey in Washington and Heba Saleh in Cairo
Published: September 4 2008 23:15 | Last updated: September 4 2008 23:15
Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, is poised on Friday to become the highest ranking US visitor to Libya for half a century, in a visit that seeks to resolve unfinished business between Washington and Tripoli and to smooth the way for US investment in the country.
Ms Rice, who left Washington on Thursday night, hopes to address Libyan complaints that the US has lagged behind European countries in establishing cordial ties following Tripoli’s 2003 renunciation of ambitions to develop weapons of mass destruction.
Tony Blair, the former UK prime minister, and Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, both visited Libya last year – and both announced energy deals. Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s prime minister, visited last weekend.
But no top-level US official has travelled to the country since Richard Nixon, then US vice-president, in 1957.
US oil companies were quick to return after the lifting of many US restrictions in 2004. But many were held back by uncertainty about the dispute between Washington and Tripoli over outstanding claims in regard to the 1988 bombing of a Pan-Am flight. Libya has accepted responsibility for that attack, in which 270 people died. It has provided families with more than $1bn (€697m, £564m) of a scheduled $2.7bn compensation.
US diplomats add that Ms Rice will push Libya to provide about $1bn it has agreed to donate to a fund set up last month to resolve remaining claims of victims of terrorist attacks linked to Libya. The fund is also intended to compensate Libyan victims of a 1986 US bombing.
“It is true that our relationship in the past has been at times very adversarial but that has changed substantially...This, for the US, is, I would say, a success in our foreign policy,” said David Welch, the state department’s top official on the Middle East. “I think we can see the path towards a much more normal relationship,” he added, citing the two countries’ intentions to conclude a trade and investment agreement soon.
This week, in a description endorsed by Mr Welch, Muammer Gaddafi described Libya’s relationship with the US as one of “neither friends nor enemies”. By contrast, in 1986, President Ronald Reagan called Mr Gaddafi, whom Ms Rice is scheduled to meet, “the mad dog of the Middle East”.
Mr Welch also highlighted other stops on this trip in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, and emphasised US concerns about al-Qaeda’s activity in the region.
But the focus will be Libya. As a cash-rich country with a population of 6m, it is a market US companies have long been eager to enter.
Jomaa Al Osta, the head of the Libyan Federation of Trade and Industry, said that during the past year Libya received visits from at least four delegations of American businessmen, in sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and aviation.
●Geneva’s justice authorities dropped assault charges on Thursday against Hannibal Gaddafi, son of the Libyan leader, paving the way for normalisation of diplomatic relations between Switzerland and Libya, writes Frances Williams in Geneva.
--------------------------------
Beijing’s caution scuppered bank bid
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing, Sundeep Tucker in Hong Kong and James Wilson in Frankfurt
Published: September 4 2008 23:31 | Last updated: September 4 2008 23:31
China Development Bank’s plan to bid for Dresdner Bank in Germany failed in large part because Chinese leaders refused to agree to the deal in time, in a sign of Beijing’s increasingly cautious attitude to investments in western financial institutions.
The hesitancy of China’s state council to approve a potential $10bn bid for a majority stake in Dresdner is another indication of Beijing’s caution after investments in western counterparts last year, most of which have fallen in value.
The Chinese government has not approved any major Chinese offshore investment in a financial firm this year.
CDB began working in January on an offer to buy a controlling stake of approximately 50 per cent in Dresdner for about $10bn from Allianz, the German insurer. But CDB was never able to submit a formal bid and Allianz agreed over the weekend to sell Dresdner to German rival Commerzbank.
The plan drawn up by CDB could have meant the Chinese bank raising its stake in Dresdner to 74 per cent within a few years. Its offer would have been all cash, in contrast to the $14.2bn mixed cash and shares offer from Commerzbank.
The Chinese pitch appealed to German unions, Dresdner management and some German politicians because CDB was prepared to keep all the bank’s staff, whereas Commerzbank has announced plans to cut 9,000 jobs at the two banks.
But people familiar with the bid said it was always unclear whether Allianz ever considered CDB a real contender or whether it was using the secretive, deep-pocketed Chinese bidder as a negotiating tactic to push Commerzbank into a deal.
“Buying Dresdner would have been easy compared to running it, which would have been much harder for CDB,” said one person close to the proposed deal. “The state council was clearly not enthusiastic and Allianz didn’t want to end up in a situation where it couldn’t do either deal.”
According to bankers and lawyers, draft regulations are circulating in Beijing that would seek to introduce a more orderly approval process for offshore investments by large state-owned financial institutions.
People familiar with financial sector deals awaiting approval in Beijing said officials at various ministries had signalled that the processes had been delayed by fresh guidelines requiring bureaucrats to increase their scrutiny of individual deals.
“The Chinese have been burnt because of the market meltdown [in the west] so they have definitely become more cautious,” said Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas. “There are also a lot of public critics who complain that huge amounts of public money are being managed by just a few unqualified people.”
CDB has been stung by criticism from Chinese politicians and the public over its investment in Barclays Bank last July, which has lost more than half its value on paper.
It has also been rocked by scandal after the arrest of vice-chairman Wang Yi in June and his continued detention as part of a probe into alleged corruption and a report from the state auditor that the bank extended billions of renminbi in illegal and irregular loans last year.
CDB released a statement through the official People’s Daily newspaper on Thursday saying it had recalled and ”corrected” most of the improper and illegal loans identified in the auditor’s report.
--------------------------------
Mexico's Supreme Court slams Walmart's labor practices
AFP
AFP - Friday, September 5 02:26 am
MEXICO CITY (AFP) - Mexico's Supreme Court compared the practices of US retail giant Walmart in Mexico to employer-worker relations during the dictatorship of former president Porfirio Diaz.
(Advertisement)
Diaz served as president and absolute ruler of Mexico from 1877-80 and from 1884-1911.
Mexico's top court on Thursday backed a Walmart employee who had complained that vouchers handed out by the company as part of its salary payments could only be spent in the company's stores.
The practice of vouchers "that come from the worker's salary only to be exchanged in the management company's establishment is similar to what happened in old company stores (that existed during Diaz's dictatorship)," the court said in its decision.
The only difference was that under Diaz's system, workers had to pay a high price for the products they bought with their vouchers, the court added.
But, in both cases, "the cost of the respective discounts were absorbed by workers, not bosses," the court said.
The company stores under Diaz's dictatorship were abolished under the 1917 constitution.
Mexican non-governmental organizations last November called for a boycott of Walmart to protest low salaries and working conditions of its employees.
Walmart is the largest private employer in Mexico, with 157,000 employees, according to Mexican media.
--------------------------------
Fiat plans to boost ties with China, India: reports
AFP
AFP - Thursday, September 4 07:09 pm
MILAN (AFP) - Italian car maker Fiat is in talks with Chinese companies about possible partnerships and is considering further tie-ups in India, Italian media reported Thursday, citing the company's chief executive.
(Advertisement)
Fiat is in discussions with "a certain number" of potential partners in China, chief executive Sergio Marchionne said, cited by Italian media on the sidelines of a car show in New Delhi.
A deepening of Fiat's foothold in the Asian economic powerhouse would offer it a chance to boost sales which have suffered recently from a sagging market in Europe.
The magazine Automotive News reported that the group was in talks with the Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group in China, where it already has ties with Chery Automobiles.
Fiat's truck subsidiary Iveco is also linked to SAIC Motor and Chongqing Heavy Vehicle Group.
The Turin-based company is "thinking of two or three operational partners like Tata," the Indian auto giant with which Fiat has already forged a partnership, Marchionne was quoted as saying by the daily Corriere della Sera.
"Fiat aspires to a two-figure share of the market in India."
-------------------------------------
French oil group Total announces three energy deals in Syria
AFP
AFP - Thursday, September 4 05:51 pm
PARIS (AFP) - French oil major Total said Thursday it had signed three oil and gas agreements in Syria during a visit to the country by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
(Advertisement)
Total said it had signed a memorandum of understanding with the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company and Syrian Gas Company to set up a strategic partnership paving the way for common projects in the future.
Another deal extended an oil license for the Deir Ez Zor energy project in the east of the country for 10 years to 2021. It is wholly owned by Total and jointly operated by Total and the Syrian Petroleum Company.
A third agreement aims to increase Total's gas deliveries for the domestic Syrian market.
The deals "pave the way for increased cooperation between Total and Syria and bolster our operations in partnership with the national oil companies of this country," said Total chief executive Christophe de Margerie.
The French president is the first Western head of state to visit Syria since the murder of Lebanese ex-premier Rafiq Hariri in a 2005 bombing in Beirut that was widely blamed on Damascus.
De Margerie is accompanying him on the trip.
-----------------------------------
４―６月の法人企業統計、２期連続の減収減益
財務省が５日発表した2008年４―６月期の法人企業統計によると、企業の経常利益は前年同期に比べ10.5％減り、14兆5393億円となった。原材料価格の高騰が企業収益を圧迫しており、マイナスは４四半期連続。売上高も同0.9％減で、２期連続の減収減益となった。2002年からの景気回復を主導した企業部門の悪化が一段と鮮明になり、景気が後退局面に入ったとの見方を裏付ける内容となった。
財務省は今回の結果について「減収減益に加え、設備投資も前年を下回っている」と指摘。「景気を『弱含み』と表現した政府の月例経済報告と整合的な結果になった」という基調判断を示した。
---------------------------------
米の輸入不足「理解得られる」 農相が見解
太田誠一農相は５日の閣議後の記者会見で、世界貿易機関（ＷＴＯ）協定で義務的に輸入している「ミニマムアクセス（ＭＡ）米」の2007年度の輸入量が最低輸入枠に足りなかったことについて、「国際価格が急騰し、未達が発生したが、各国には理解が得られる」と述べた。日本はＭＡ米を年77万トン輸入することになっているが、07年度分は国際価格の高騰で入札が不調に終わり、７万トンを輸入できずにいた。
太田農相は「（コメの）輸出国が輸出規制を行う状況で、（再入札の）機会を提供しても相場を上げることになる」と指摘。入札をしても高くて輸入できなかったことについて「努力を積み重ねた結果」と強調。輸入義務違反という指摘は当たらないとの認識を示した。
-----------------------------------
生保、特約絞り込み急ぐ 不払い再発防止
生保各社が保険商品をわかりやすく見直す動きが広がってきた。日本生命保険は10月、死亡保険などの主契約に上乗せして加入する医療特約を現在の6種類から1種類にまとめる。太陽生命保険は同月から特約を実質的に全廃する。保険金の支払い漏れが多かった「通院特約」を廃止する会社も目立つ。商品の簡素化により不払い問題の再発を防ぐ狙いだ。
国内大手生保は主契約の死亡保険に、入院費や通院費をまかなう「特約」が付いた商品を主に販売してきた。特約数は10―20になることも珍しくなく、加入者が特約の保険金請求を忘れる事態が相次いだ。不払いの再発防止策として、増えすぎた特約の絞り込みが課題。特約削減はすべてが保険料の引き下げに直結するわけではないが、契約者利便を高める一定の効果がありそうだ。
----------------------------------
農地集約へ取引円滑に 農水省新制度
農林水産省は農地の集約を進めるため、円滑な農地の賃借・売却の仲介業務を認める「農地版の不動産仲介」制度を2009年度にも創設する。後継者のいない農家などから委任を受けて農地取引を仲介できる組織を市町村ごとに設置し、農地の流動化を進める。世界的な食料不足懸念もある中で、海外に比べ経営効率の低い国内農家の大規模化と生産性向上を促す。
農地取引の仲介制度は今秋にもまとめる農地制度改革の1つ。今年度からモデルづくりのため9市町村で試行していたが、09年度に実証事業として約500カ所に拡大。09年の通常国会に農地法改正案を提出し、全国で解禁する考えだ。
----------------------------------
中小企業の新健保、10月発足 財政基盤の強化急務
中小企業の社員らが加入する政府管掌健康保険（政管健保）を引き継ぐ全国健康保険協会（協会けんぽ）が、10月1日に発足する。政管健保は医療費の増大などから2007年度に赤字に転落。保険料率を引き上げなければ、財政の安定のために積み立ててきた「事業運営安定資金」が09年度に枯渇する。財政基盤に不安を抱えた新健保は発足当初から厳しい運営を迫られる。
高齢化で医療費が膨らんでいることに高齢者医療制度への拠出などが加わり、健保財政の悪化は構造的な問題になっている。安定資金の積立残高は07年度末に3690億円あったが、08年度末には1800億円に減少する見通し。保険料率を引き上げなかった場合、09年度の単年度収支は2700億円の赤字が見込まれ、安定資金は差し引き約900億円のマイナスに陥る。(07:00)
----------------------------------
財務省、法人統計の調査法見直し 09年メド、誤差小さく
財務省は企業の収益動向を調べる法人企業統計の調査手法を見直す。2009年度をめどに、1年間だけだった中小企業の回答を2年継続にする。回答対象の入れ替えも半分ずつにして、生じる誤差も小さくする。法人企業統計は企業の利益額や設備投資を計る重要な経済統計だが、調査対象が変わるタイミングで誤差が生じる問題がエコノミストの間で指摘されていた。
現行の調査では資本金6億円以上の企業は全企業に、資本金6億円未満の中小企業はランダムに選んだ対象に回答を求めていた。対象となる企業は毎年4月に入れ替えていたため、4―6月期の調査は他の期に比べ大きく変動し、収益の動向で変化したのか調査対象の違いで誤差が生じたのかわからないという問題があった。(10:06)
------------------------------
４―６月期の設備投資、6.5％減 法人企業統計
財務省が５日発表した４―６月期の法人企業統計によると、全産業の設備投資額は10兆8680億円で、前年同期に比べ6.5％減少した。国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）を推計する基礎となるソフトウエアを除いた設備投資額は同7.6％減の10兆434億円となり、季節調整して前期と比べると6.1％減少した。
-------------------------------------
みずほグループ、富裕層向け強化 投信2000万円から
みずほフィナンシャルグループは富裕層向けビジネスを強化する。傘下のみずほ銀行は最低投資額が2000万円のハイリスク・ハイリターンの投資信託を8 日から投入。みずほ信託銀行も10月から富裕層向けの相談業務に特化した新型店舗の出店を始める。商品内容や拠点の拡充で、同ビジネスに力を入れる他行や外資系金融機関に対抗する。
みずほ銀が8日から売り出す投信は、5億円以上の金融資産をもつ富裕層向けの専用商品。米国の有力ヘッジファンド、ポールソン・アンド・カンパニーが投資助言するハイリスク・ハイリターン型の商品で、銀行窓口では扱わず、プライベートバンキングの担当者が個別営業する。(08:32)
----------------------------------
新生銀、本店を東京・日本橋に 野村不から賃借
新生銀行は4日、2010年秋をめどに本店を東京・日本橋に移転する方針を固めた。野村不動産が開発する新築ビルに中核テナントとして入居する。同行は今年3月、前身の旧日本長期信用銀行時代から保有してきた東京・内幸町の本店ビルをリストラの一環として売却し、移転先を探していた。
公的資金が注入されている大手行の本店売却、移転はあおぞら、りそな両行に次ぐ例。(07:00)
-------------------------------------
後期高齢者医療制度の医療費、４月は１人あたり７万円
国民健康保険中央会は4日、75歳以上を対象とする後期高齢者医療制度の4月の医療費（速報値）が総額で9202億円だったと発表した。1人当たりの医療費は7万350円だった。後期高齢者医療制度が4月に導入されてから初めての発表となる。
後期高齢者医療の対象となる被保険者数は1308万人。対象範囲が異なるため単純比較できないが、昨年4月の国民健康保険における74歳以上の1人当たり医療費（6万9897円）と比べると約450円の増加となった。
1人当たり医療費7万350円のうち、入院医療費が3万4810円、入院外の医療費が3万3127円、歯科医療費が2259円だった。(07:00)
----------------------------------
出産一時金、35万円から３万円引き上げ 厚労省方針
厚生労働省は来年1月の「産科医療補償制度」導入時に、出産の際に健康保険の加入者に支給している一時金を現行の35万円から3万円引き上げる方針を決めた。12日に開く社会保障審議会医療保険部会に提示する。出産時の医療事故で重い脳性まひとなった子に対する補償制度の開始に合わせ、医療機関が補償に必要な保険料を分娩（ぶんべん）費に転嫁する公算が大きいと判断、出産時の費用負担を軽減する狙いだ。
産科医療補償制度は分娩を扱う医療機関が任意で加入する。脳性まひの子が生まれた場合、医師に過失がなくても妊産婦に補償金計3000万円を支払う。出産1回当たり3万円の掛け金は医療機関が負担する。病院・診療所の制度への加入率は現時点で72.5％。厚労省は3万円の掛け金分を出産一時金に上乗せすることで、医療機関の加入を促す考えだ。
出産費用には健康保険がきかないが、組合の加入者には出産一時金が支払われる。(07:00)
-----------------------------------
損保６社、８月の保険料収入4.3％減
東京海上日動火災保険など損害保険大手6社が4日発表した2008年8月の営業成績によると、6社合計の保険料収入は前年同月比4.3％減の4577億円だった。料率が低下した自動車損害賠償責任保険の保険料収入が各社で3割程度落ち込んだほか、自動車保険も低迷。全体の保険料収入は6社とも前年実績を下回った。
6社合計の自動車保険の保険料収入は1.7％減の2215億円。8月は軽自動車を除く単月の新車販売台数が37年ぶりに20万台を割り込むなど「事業環境が厳しかった」（三井住友海上火災保険）。(07:00)
----------------------------------
旅先の「別行動派」、女性は７割超す 民間調査
「ＡＮＡクラウンプラザホテル」を展開するＩＨＧ・ＡＮＡ・ホテルズグループジャパン（東京・港）は夏の旅行に関するアンケート結果をまとめた。旅先で同行者と別々に行動してもいいという人は、男性が63％だったのに対し、女性は75％と大きく上回った。
20代から40代の働く人に、旅先での別行動について聞いたところ、「すべて異なってもいい」は男女とも８％だった。一方、「（一部）違う時間があってもいい」は男性の55％に対し、女性が66％と差がついた。
こうした“別行動派”の割合は、すべての年代で男性より女性の方が多く、特に40代では男性の56％に対して女性は75％と“食い違い”が目立った。(10:40)
----------------------------------
松下、社内大学をアジア展開 中国とベトナムで製造技術伝授
松下電器産業は海外で働く人材の育成を強化する。中国とベトナムで工場の生産技術を底上げするための社内大学を新設、年間約180人の現地社員が学ぶ体制を整える。海外の販売会社の幹部向けには日本でマーケティング手法を学ぶ新制度も設ける。海外でも日本並みの人材教育に取り組むことで、製品やサービスの向上につなげる。海外展開で先行するソニーなどを追撃する。
中国・杭州とベトナム・ハノイにある白物家電工場の敷地内に、「中国製造技術学院」と「ベトナムモノづくり短期大学校」をそれぞれ2009年度に開設する。中国では年間40人、ベトナムは同140人の幹部候補の現地社員や製造ラインのリーダーが、製造技術や生産管理などものづくりのノウハウを学ぶ。期間は数カ月から1年。(10:09)
------------------------------
減益予想でも増配継続 上場企業、株主配分を重視
上場企業が厳しい収益環境のなか、2009年3月期も増配を続ける見通しだ。今期は7期ぶりの経常減益が見込まれるが、株主配分を重視する姿勢は維持し、年間配当総額は前期より4％増えそうだ。配当額を純利益で割って算出する配当性向は、利益水準の低下もあり前期の29％から今期は32％に上昇する。
日本経済新聞社が、金融と新興3市場の上場企業を除く3月決算会社1810社を対象に、今期の年間配当予想額（計5兆9310億円）を集計した。配当総額は07年3月期が前の期に比べ19％増、前期も15％増と二ケタ増が続いていた。今期も増加ペースは維持するものの伸び率は鈍化する。(07:00)
-------------------------------------
日本製紙、カタログ用紙減産 王子も減産継続
日本製紙グループ本社と王子製紙は9月からチラシやカタログに使う主力品種である塗工紙を減産する。日本製紙は岩国工場（山口県岩国市）など国内5工場で8月の生産量に比べて13％減らす。王子製紙も9月は当初計画に比べ4％減産する。国内景気の減速を受け、広告向け印刷用紙の需要が減少しているのが主因。需給を引き締めることで価格水準の維持を狙う。
印刷用紙最大手の日本製紙は今月中旬から5工場の稼働率を下げ、8月の生産量17万3000トンから2万2000トン減らす。同社が1万トン以上の減産を実施するのは2000年以来、8年ぶり。日本製紙は昨年11月に月3万トン分の設備を石巻工場（宮城県石巻市）に増強しており、供給を増やしていた。減産は同工場も対象となる。(07:00)
--------------------------------
ジルサンダー、５年後の世界売上高330億円に
オンワードホールディングス（ＨＤ）と、同社が買収を決めたドイツの高級ブランド「ジルサンダー」の管理会社ジルサンダーエージー（ハンブルク）は4 日、ジルサンダーの全世界での売上高を2013年1月期に330億円と08年1月期比1.6倍に引き上げると発表した。米国、アジアでの店舗網を広げ、靴、バッグなど雑貨品の品ぞろえを増やす。
オンワードＨＤの広内武会長とジルサンダーのジアン・フェラリス最高経営責任者（ＣＥＯ）が都内で会見した。広内氏は今回の買収について、「海外事業強化に向け有力ブランドが手に入った」と語り、フェラリス氏は「オンワードＨＤ傘下入りは誇るべきこと」とした。
ジルサンダーは現在日本と欧州中心に62の店舗数を拡大するとともに、下着や水着のライセンス販売も始める。利益率の高い直営小売店の売上構成比を 50％と14ポイント上げる。これらの収益拡大策により、「13年1月期のＥＢＩＴＤＡ（利払い、税引き、償却前利益）を08年1月期の11倍の45億円にする」（フェラリス氏）とした。(07:00)
-----------------------------------
ブルボン、中国で菓子生産開始 年間13億円を販売
ブルボンは4日、中国浙江省長興県の工場で8日から菓子生産を始めると発表した。同社初の海外生産拠点で、中国国内向けに製品を供給する。食べきりサイズの菓子「プチシリーズ」6品目を生産、年間13億円を販売する。
全額出資する波路梦（長興）食品公司で生産する。工場は鉄筋コンクリート造り2階建て。プチシリーズの6品目はチョコレート、チョコチップ、クッキーなど。
工場のある浙江省や上海市などを中心に営業し、北京市や広東省、内陸部の四川省などにも販売網を広げる。スーパーマーケット、コンビニエンスストア、百貨店などで販売する。全額出資子会社の波路梦（上海）商貿公司が販売を担当する。(07:00)
-----------------------------------
トヨタ、欧州の研究開発拠点拡充 125億円を投資
【ロンドン＝清水泰雅】トヨタ自動車は4日、ベルギーにある研究開発拠点を拡充すると発表した。投資額は8000万ユーロ（約125億円）で、長さ 1.3キロメートルのテストコースなどを新設する。世界で販売を拡大するため、同社は地域事情に応じた自動車の研究開発が不可欠と考えており、石畳の路面など欧州ならではの環境に適した開発を進める考えだ。
拡張するのはベルギーのザベンタム市にある「トヨタ技術センター」。欧州の道路を再現した道路や坂を備えた新テストコースのほか、1万2000平方メートルの開発施設を建設する。2009年からの拠点拡充に合わせ、250人を新規採用する予定だ。同センターへの総投資額は2億ユーロに達する。主に石畳など悪路での騒音や振動を中心に、研究開発を強化する予定だ。(07:00)
-----------------------------------
道銀、ロシア戦略加速 駐在経験者、外部から採用
北海道銀行はロシア・サハリン州への駐在員事務所の開設を機に、対ロビジネスを大幅に拡充する。現地の金融事情に精通した人材を相次ぎ採用。10月には堰八義博頭取がサハリンを訪れ、道内企業ＰＲなどトップセールスもする。送金などで提携していた現地の銀行が8月に業務停止となったが、新たな提携先を早急に探し、影響を最小限にとどめたい考えだ。
新たに採用したのは、2007年までロシアに拠点を置いていた、みちのく銀行（青森市）の元行員2人。ユジノサハリンスク支店長などを歴任した対馬雅弘氏（52）は、7月1日付で高い専門性や能力を持つシニアマネジャーに就任。9月1日付で元ハバロフスク支店長の天間幸生氏（35）も調査役として入行した。
対ロビジネスの窓口となるのは国際業務室内の「中国・ロシア」デスク。かつて稚内市のサハリン事務所に出向していた行員も所属する。道銀は今年度中にユジノサハリンスクへの駐在員事務所の開設を目指しており、ロシア中央銀行への申請書類の作成など詰めの作業を急ぐ。
----------------------------------
電話対応３カ国語で 三井不動産、銀座の６商業ビル
三井不動産は東京都中央区銀座で運営する6つの商業ビルで中韓英語による電話問い合わせの対応を9月から始めた。トイレ、エレベーターなどの場所を示す館内サインも中韓英語のものを設置。中国、韓国などからの買い物客の来日頻度の増加を見込み、囲い込みたい意向だ。
「銀座並木通りビル」「交詢ビル ＤＩＮＩＮＧ＆ＳＴＯＲＥＳ」「ＺＯＥ銀座」「銀座ベルビア館」「ニッタビル」「ギンザ・グラッセ」で3カ国語に対応する。海外から問い合わせられる一般電話回線と、国内用はフリーダイヤルを設けた。
千葉市にある「三井アウトレットパーク幕張」では館内サインを3カ国語対応にした。電話は国内用のナビダイヤルと海外用の一般回線をまず中国語だけ設けた。
---------------------------------
輸入事故米を食用に転用 基準値超す残留農薬、大阪の業者
農林水産省は５日、中国などから輸入し、残留農薬が基準値を超えているため食用にはしないことになっていた事故米を、米粉加工業者の三笠フーズ（本社大阪市、工場福岡県筑前町）が食用として転売していたと発表した。基準値を超えるメタミドホスが含まれているコメがあったという。
同省は、同社に転売したコメと加工品の回収を要請。同社は回収することを決めた。
近畿農政局と九州農政局が８月28日から立ち入り調査を実施し、不正に転売していたことを確認したという。(15:30)
----------------------------------
イージス艦海難審判、漁船の位置巡り対立
海上自衛隊のイージス艦「あたご」と漁船「清徳丸」の第1回海難審判で、船渡健・前艦長（53）は4日午後、清徳丸の位置について、検察官にあたる理事官の指摘よりも「南東だった」と主張した。弁護人に当たる補佐人も前艦長側が作成した航跡図を次回以降の審判で提出するとしており、原因究明の前提となる清徳丸の位置を巡って理事官側と正面から争う展開となりそうだ。
横浜地方海難審判庁（織戸孝治審判長）では同日午後、船渡前艦長と衝突時の当直士官だった長岩友久・前水雷長（35）の尋問が行われた。(07:00)
-----------------------------------
教員の平均年齢、過去最高に 07年度教員統計
教員の高年齢化が進み、平均年齢が小学校で44.4歳、中学校で43.8歳と、いずれも過去最高になったことが4日、文部科学省の2007年度学校教員統計調査（速報）で分かった。第2次ベビーブームに合わせて大量採用された教員が50歳代になり、今後退職が増加して教員の入れ替わりが急速に進む見通しだ。
学校教員統計調査は3年に1度実施している。07年10月1日時点の教員数は国公私立合わせて小学校が38万9819人、中学校が23万1528人。3年前の前回調査に比べ平均年齢は小学校で0.3歳、中学校で0.9歳上昇した。
年齢構成別にみると、小学校は50歳以上55歳未満の層が20.8％で最も高い割合を占める。中学校では45歳以上50歳未満が21.4％で最多だった。(07:00)
-------------------------------------
過労自殺：医師が長時間労働…両親と病院和解 大阪高裁
０４年に自殺した女性医師（当時２８歳）の両親が「過労によるうつ病が原因」として勤め先の「十全総合病院」＝愛媛県新居浜市＝を運営する財団法人に対し、約１億９０００万円の損害賠償を求めた訴訟が、病院側が和解金６６００万円を支払うことで大阪高裁で和解した。
和解は８月２８日付。両親の代理人は「うつ病の発症と長時間労働の因果関係は認められなかったが、司法が病院側の安全配慮義務を幅広く認定した意義は大きい」と話している。
０７年５月の１審・大阪地裁判決は、医師の過労自殺を巡る訴訟で病院側の法的責任を初めて認定し、約７７００万円の賠償を命じた。だが、過失相殺の割合を不服とした両親と病院側の双方が控訴していた。
------------------------------------
アフガン邦人殺害：「伊藤さん拉致、パキスタン黒幕」 情報機関発表、真相解明困難に
【ニューデリー栗田慎一】アフガニスタン東部で非政府組織「ペシャワール会」メンバーの伊藤和也さん（３１）が拉致、殺害された事件で、アフガン国家保安局（ＮＤＳ）は、「パキスタン軍情報機関（ＩＳＩ）が事件の黒幕だ」と発表した。だがこれまでもＮＤＳは、国内のテロ事件の責任を明確な根拠を示さないままパキスタンに負わせる言動が目立ち、事件はパキスタンの責任だと世界に印象付けたい思惑も垣間見える。伊藤さん殺害事件の真相はアフガンとパキスタンの確執に巻き込まれ、解明されないまま終わる可能性も出ている。
ＮＤＳは３日、拘束されたアーディル・シャー容疑者（２５）が、「ＩＳＩから報酬支払いを条件に拉致を依頼された」と供述したと発表した。ただ直接依頼を受けたのは逃走中の共犯者で、その人物がシャー容疑者に拉致話を持ちかけたという。
シャー容疑者は伊藤さんが拉致された８月２６日、現場付近に潜んでいるところを拘束された。地元ナンガルハル州警察のパチャ本部長は２９日、毎日新聞に対し同容疑者が、「パキスタン北西部のペシャワルで（反政府武装勢力の）タリバンから拉致を命じられた」と供述していると語った。
ＮＤＳは州警察の調べが終了した３０日から、シャー容疑者の取り調べに着手したとされる。州警察は同容疑者の国籍について「アフガニスタン難民」としたが、ＮＤＳは「パキスタン市民」、容疑者の動機についても「復興支援の中止」（州警察）、「金銭目的」（ＮＤＳ）とするなど、両者の食い違いが目立っている。
ＮＤＳは４月のカルザイ大統領暗殺未遂事件や、７月にインド大使館付近で起きた自爆テロについても「ＩＳＩの犯行」とした。真相は不明だが、治安悪化の責任をパキスタンに転嫁するために、ＩＳＩ関与を強く主張している面が否めない。
パキスタン軍幹部は４日、ＮＤＳの発表について「アフガンの現実逃避だ」と否定。ナンガルハル州警察幹部は「（ＮＤＳの発表内容には）我々の知らない部分があるが、コメントは控えたい」と口を閉ざした。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
■ことば
◇ＩＳＩとＮＤＳ
パキスタン軍情報機関（ＩＳＩ）はアフガンの武装勢力タリバン発足に深くかかわり、その後もタリバン政権を強く支援してきた。一方、０１年のタリバン政権崩壊後に発足したアフガン国家保安局（ＮＤＳ）は、タリバンと戦った「北部同盟」の故マスード司令官の側近が幹部を占め、ＩＳＩやパキスタンへの敵対心が特に強いとされる。
----------------------------------
老人ホーム：無届けが３７０施設も 総務省が改善勧告へ
設置時に義務化されている都道府県への届け出をしていない有料老人ホームが、少なくとも３７０施設に上ることが、総務省の行政評価で分かった。立ち入り検査や改善命令の対象から漏れる恐れもあり、同省は５日、厚生労働省に改善を勧告する。
総務省は２２都道府県の有料老人ホーム計２３６２カ所の実態を調査した。有料老人ホームに該当するのに届け出がなく、行政が存在を把握していなかった例が東京、愛知など５都県で計１７施設あった。当局が把握していたものの、老人福祉法に基づく届け出がなかった施設は１４都道府県で計３５３施設に上った。総務省行政評価局は「都道府県に実態を把握させるよう、厚労省に求めたい」と話している。
また、介護サービスを担当する職員の人手不足解消に向け、介護報酬の引き上げなどの対策を取ることも、厚労省に勧告する。介護保険制度に関する総務省の勧告は初めて。職員賃金の財源となる介護報酬は来年度に改定を控えており、勧告内容を改定の議論に反映させる狙いがある。
ケアマネジャーや介護福祉士といった介護職員は全国に約１９７万人いる。一方でサービスの利用者は約３３８万人（０６年度）と、００年度の約１８４万人からほぼ倍増。介護関連の有効求人倍率は２．１倍と全職種平均（０．９７倍）を大きく上回るが、離職率も２１．６％と、全職種平均（１６．２％）より高い。
離職率の高さについて勧告は「低賃金など職場環境の厳しさが原因」と指摘。厚労省が離職原因や賃金、事業者の財務状況を調査・分析していないとして、実態を調べて介護報酬引き上げなどの検討を求めた。
------------------------------------
南部鉄器：岩手の伝統工芸品、中国で商標登録申請
岩手県の伝統工芸品「南部鉄器」の名称が、中国で商標登録申請されていることが４日分かった。中国への輸出に影響が出る恐れがあることから関係者は異議申し立てを行う方針。県などによると、昨年９月に香港の個人が中国商標局に申請。官報での公告は出されていない。中国の法律では、公告から３カ月以内に異議申し立てがなければ申請が認められる。
--------------------------------
サニーサイド：大証ヘラクレスに上場、一時ストップ高
ＰＲ・マネジメント会社のサニーサイドアップ（本社、東京都）が５日、大阪証券取引所ヘラクレス市場に上場した。同社には、北京五輪の競泳で金メダリストとなった北島康介さんらスポーツ選手や芸能人が所属している。初値は公開価格を４０円下回る２７６０円だったが、高い話題性から一時ストップ高の３１６０円を付けた。
同社は８５年設立。所属する著名人には、テニスの杉山愛さんやプロゴルフの上田桃子さん、陸上の為末大さん、歌手の大黒摩季さんなどがいる。元サッカー選手の中田英寿さんは約７％を保有する大株主の１人。０８年６月期の連結業績は、売上高が６７億円、営業利益が３億円、最終（当期）利益が１億円だった。
--------------------------------
防衛白書：拡大する任務と「自省」のジレンマ
０８年版「防衛白書」は、防衛省の一連の不祥事を受けて、文民統制などの原点に立ち戻る改革に力点が置かれた。昨年の省昇格で自衛隊の国際協力が本来任務化され、海外派遣に本腰を入れようとした矢先。政府は不祥事を受けて、防衛力のあり方自体の総点検を迫られた。この間、インド洋の海上自衛隊の給油活動が一時中断するなど、国際協力はむしろ停滞。拡大する任務と「自省」のジレンマに足踏みする自衛隊の現状が浮かぶ。
白書は防衛省改革について、政府の改革会議が７月にまとめた報告書をほぼ踏襲。自衛隊員の規律回復に加え、防衛力整備部門の一元化など大規模な組織再編のメニューを記した。国際協力などで「活用しやすい自衛隊」へ議論の方向を転じる意図も込められている。ただ国民の注目は、当面、白書が言う不祥事の根絶が本当にできるかに向くだろう。
一方、日本をめぐる安全保障環境は複雑化している。アフガニスタン、イラクでの米国の「テロとの戦い」は苦境が続いている。極東でも原油価格高騰に沸くロシアが再び存在感を増し、国防費の増大が止まらない中国、北朝鮮の核開発も気がかりだ。自衛隊の国際協力の本来任務化は、こうした国際社会の課題解決に日本が参加する狙いだった。白書も新テロ対策特別措置法の内容を詳述するなど、海外任務の重要性を強調した。
しかし福田康夫首相の突然の退陣表明で、防衛省改革と国際協力の今後は、ともに不透明感を深めている。不祥事を受けた立て直しが進まなければ、防衛省は国際協力に支持を得るどころか、国民の信頼回復もおぼつかない。
------------------------------------
補正予算案：農水分野に２８５０億円 政府・与党が検討
政府・与党は４日、臨時国会に提出する補正予算案に農林水産分野で約２８５０億円を計上する方向で検討に入った。燃料・肥料の価格高騰対策などの非公共事業に約１３５０億円、災害復旧などの公共事業に約１３００億円、小麦の政府売り渡し価格の値上げ幅圧縮に伴う財政負担約２００億円を盛り込む。
ただ、与党に燃料高騰対策で増額を求める声が強いほか、災害復旧費などにも流動的な要素が残っている。
農業の燃料高騰対策は、肥料や燃料の使用量を２割以上減らす農業者グループに対し、コスト増の半分を助成する。補正予算案に数百億円を計上する。漁業では、燃料使用量を１０％以上減らすことを条件に、コスト増の９割を漁業者グループに補てんする。既に０７年度補正予算と０８年度当初予算で８０億円を充てているが、補正予算で数百億円追加する。
政府が輸入して製粉業者に売り渡す小麦価格は、今年１０月の値上げ幅を本来必要な２３％から１０％に圧縮するが、この財政負担を補正予算案に盛り込む。
補正予算案は政府が先月決定した総合経済対策の一環で、総額約１兆８０００億円が見込まれている。
-----------------------------------
後期高齢者医療制度：４月分医療費、最大格差１．５４倍 「西高東低」の傾向
国民健康保険中央会は４日、４月に始まった、７５歳以上が対象である後期高齢者医療制度の４月分医療費は、９２０２億円だったと公表した。加入者（１３０８万人）１人当たりの平均額は７万３５０円で、最高の福岡県（８万７３９６円）は、最低の長野県（５万６６９７円）の１・５４倍となった。北海道などを除き、おおむね「西高東低」の傾向を示している。
１人当たりの入院費を都道府県別にみると、高齢者向けの長期入院施設、療養病床の数が多い高知県（５万１４７５円）がトップで、最低の長野県（２万５８６１円）の１・９９倍。総額は東京都の７３３億１５００万円が最高で、最低は鳥取県の５５億３８００万円だった。
----------------------------------
千葉・銚子市長：病院休止条例案の採決前日、反対市議に豚肉贈る 自宅を訪れ説得
千葉県銚子市の岡野俊昭市長（６２）が、市立総合病院の診療休止を決める条例案採決の前日、反対を表明していた市議（６０）宅を訪問し、豚肉を贈って説得していた。市長は「この夏、シジミを２回もらったのでそのお返し。条例案とは無関係」と説明するが、公職選挙法は選挙区内での寄付行為を禁止している。
同病院は新臨床研修制度の影響で医師不足が深刻化。市長が今年７月、９月末の休止を表明し、８月の臨時議会に関連条例案を提出した。条例案は８月２２日、無記名投票の結果、１３対１２の１票差で可決された。
岡野市長によると、採決前日の２１日夜、条例案に反対していた市議２人の市内の自宅を訪問。このうち１人に、玄関先でスライスした豚肉（約１キロ）を渡し、賛成するよう説得した。肉は市長の実家が経営する精肉店から取り寄せた。価格は分からないという。市長は「シジミのお礼のつもりだったが、軽率だった」と釈明している。
受け取った市議は「『これは何だ』と聞いたが、お礼ということなので受け取った。条例案には反対したので、豚肉を贈られたこととは関係ない」と話している。
--------------------------------
提訴：「勤務成績不良」と解雇 元社員、ＪＲ東海を ／滋賀
◇日勤教育で「人間失格、早く辞めろ」
ＪＲ東海（本社・名古屋市）の「日勤教育」で上司から暴言を浴び、解雇されたのは不当として、元社員の男性が同社を相手取り、労働契約上の地位確認と慰謝料など約３９０万円の支払いを求め、大津地裁に提訴した。
訴状によると、男性は０４年から勤務し、新幹線京都駅の駅員だった０６年１０月、ホームで手すり付近にいた乗客に下がるよう注意した際、下がらなかったため、新幹線を発車させた。しかし、上司が「なぜ発車させた」と詰問。翌日から約１カ月半、男性を業務から外し、「日勤教育」として始末書の作成や就業規則の丸写しなどを命じたほか、「人間失格」「早く辞めろ」などと暴言を浴びせた。男性は昨年６月、「勤務成績が著しく不良」などとして解雇された。
原告側は「解雇は合理的な理由を欠き、社会通念上、相当と認められない」と主張。これに対し、同社は「原告は乗客から多数の苦情が来るなど勤務成績が悪く、教育指導をしても是正されなかった」としている。
-----------------------------------
働けど：’０８蟹工船／４ 正社員も使い捨て
◇店長昇進、残業代なしで月３００時間労働
お前なんぞ、船長と言ってりゃ大きな顔してるが、糞場（くそば）の紙ぐれえのねうちもねえんだど＝「蟹工船」から
「私はただ普通に働きたかっただけです。正社員になって自分で将来をひとつひとつ積み上げ、築き上げたかっただけなのです」
コンビニエンスストア「ＳＨＯＰ９９」の元店長で、未払い残業代やうつ病になった慰謝料計約４５０万円を求めて提訴した清水文美（ふみよし）さん（２８）＝東京都八王子市＝は７月１６日、東京地裁八王子支部で開かれた初弁論でそう訴えた。いわゆる「名ばかり管理職」の一人だ。
清水さんは高校卒業後にフリーターとして８年間過ごした後、０６年９月にＳＨＯＰ９９を経営する九九プラス（本社・東京都小平市）に入社した。念願の正社員。わずか９カ月後の０７年６月に店長に昇進したが、待っていたのは月３００時間を超す長時間労働だった。
清水さんの出勤記録によると、同年８月は▽７日２３時間半▽８日２３時間▽９日１６時間４５分▽１０日２２時間と、４日間の労働時間が８５時間を超えた。棚卸し、レジ打ち、商品の発注や管理。正社員は店長１人のため、アルバイトの人繰りがつかなかったり、トラブルがあれば、休日や深夜も関係なく呼び出されて穴埋めに入った。それでも「店長は管理職」として残業代は支払われず、手取りは月２１万円程度と、一般社員のころに比べ最大約８万円下がった。
昨年７月に精神科でうつ病と診断された。疲れているはずなのに眠れない。「死んでしまうのかな」。それでも「もうフリーターには戻りたくない」という一心で働き続けた。医師の強い説得で休職したのは３カ月後。周りの店長も次々と辞めていた。
清水さんは休職するまでの日々を振り返り、「野菜の皮むき器のように自分の命を削っているようだった。商品の低価格は店長の犠牲の上に成り立っていることに気付いた。裁判を通じて異常な長時間労働をなくし、普通に働くことを実現したい」と語る。
同社は「裁判で係争中なのでコメントは差し控えたい」と話す。
＊
神奈川県在住の岡田秀明さん（４０）＝仮名＝は大学を卒業後、主に営業マンとして働いてきた。しかし、転職を重ねるうちに短期間で一方的に解雇されることが増えていった。「中途採用の営業は使い捨て。中小では人を育てる前に、経営が苦しいから切ればいいという考えだ」と嘆く。
０５年１０月から約９カ月勤めた医療機器メーカーの東京支店では、数人で東北から北陸までの約５０の病院を担当した。社員２０人程度の会社は、創業者社長によるワンマン経営。手取りは２８万円ほどだったが、就業規則を見たこともなかった。
機器の故障などがあれば、営業マンが病院に向かい、部品の交換などを行った。社長の指示で移動はすべて車。青森県八戸市にも東京から約８時間かけて行った。１カ月のうち２～３週間は家に帰れず、車で病院を転々とした。「長時間の運転→病院→ホテル」の繰り返しだった。
東北への支店開設を要望しても、社長は「そんなことをしたら会社がつぶれる」。支店に修理担当の配置を求めると、岡田さん自身が本社で修理技術を学ぶよう命令された。拒否すると解雇を通知された。個人加盟労組「東京管理職ユニオン」に支援されて東京都労働委員会の救済を受けた。約５０万円の解決金で和解し、退職した。
その後入社した会社でも１カ月や３カ月単位で結果を求められ、「売れないのは君のせいでしょ」などと一方的に解雇された。経営状況が悪いことを理由に社会保険に加入させてくれなかったり、雇用契約書を渡してくれないこともあった。
職探しを始めて３カ月。年齢と転職歴の多さが災いしてか、何枚履歴書を送っても面接にたどりつけない。
「若い人には、隣の芝生は青く見えることもあるけど安易な転職はしない方がいいと、言いたい」。過去への後悔と将来への不安が不惑の心をかき乱す。だが、人と話す時、笑顔だけは絶やさない。「なぜって？ 営業マンですから」
◇労働審判手続きで紛争解決迅速に
人件費抑制の動きが広がる中で、正社員に人手不足やサービス残業による長時間勤務など過剰な負担がかかっている。
「人が壊れてゆく職場」（光文社新書）の著書がある笹山尚人弁護士は「労働基準法など労働関連法がきちんと守られていれば、労働者には▽１日８時間、週４０時間を超える労働時間の制限▽時間外労働への残業代の支払い▽有給休暇の取得▽契約の一方的な不利益変更は認められないこと－－などが保障されている。だが、多くの職場で守られていないのが実態だ。自分の置かれた労働環境がどの程度の違法状態かを知ることは大事」と話す。
労組と雇用者の紛争を解決する各都道府県労働委員会の審査や裁判以外で、個別の労使紛争の解決手段として笹山弁護士が勧めるのが、０６年４月に創設された労働審判手続きだ。
地裁に申し立てると、裁判官である労働審判官１人と民間から選ばれた労働審判員２人による労働審判委員会が労使に調停を試みるか、審判で解決策を提示する。原則として３回以内の期日で審理するため、裁判よりも迅速だ。「少額のケースでも短期間での集中的な審理による解決が可能」という。０７年の申し立ては全国で１４９４件に上る。
--------------------------------
働けど：’０８蟹工船／５ 日雇い、漂泊１０年
◇限界感じ脱出…畳で「大の字」に万感
てんでんばらばらのもの等（ら）を集めることが、雇うものにとって、この上なく都合のいゝことだった。＝「蟹工船」から
「ネットカフェで暮らした１０年、リラックスしたことは一度もない」。埼玉県の中島孝さん（４５）＝仮名＝は日雇い派遣で食いつなぎながら、昨年７月まで続けた長い漂泊生活を振り返る。
きっかけは離婚だった。妻と２人の息子を残し、住んでいた賃貸マンションを出た。運送会社で月収約３０万円の正社員だったが、うまい話を持ちかけてドライバーを集める営業の仕事が嫌で、同じころやめた。
新たにアパートを借りる蓄えはなかった。引っ越し作業などのアルバイトをし、サウナやカプセルホテル、ネットカフェなどを転々とした。２、３年後、派遣会社計５社に登録した。友人に借りた携帯電話で、翌日の仕事の有無を聞く。「あしたはないよ」。次々に断られると、「寝るところはどうしよう。食べ物は」と焦りと不安に胸が締め付けられた。
仕事は、倉庫内の仕分けや工場での製品箱詰め、ごみの回収・分別などの軽作業や肉体労働だった。中島さんは「どんな現場でもしょっぱなからガンガン働いた」。派遣先に気に入られるためだ。
東京都内のごみ分別工場で働いた時。ごみやほこりがたちこめていた。１日働き、「また来てよ」と呼ばれて２日目に行った時、工場の社員が「はい」と手袋とマスクを差し出した。社員が使っているのと同じ丈夫なものだ。派遣先の目にとまれば、小さな役得もあり、指名されれば仕事にあぶれなかった。
「普通は５０００円払っても断りたい仕事。でも、その日の５０００円や６０００円のために、一生懸命やるのがオレたち」と声に自嘲（じちょう）がこもる。それでも仕事があるのは週に４回ほど。月収は約８万円だった。
稼ぎは食費や宿泊費に消える。その中から１０００円程度は残さなくてはならない。仕事のない日曜に備え、土曜に６０００円はないと不安だった。大型連休や正月は１週間ほど仕事が途絶える。年始には「毎日１００円浮かせば次の年越しができる」と考えた。金のない時は野宿だ。怖くて眠れなかった。
家族連れを見るのも苦痛だった。「あの時、家を出なければ」。後悔にも襲われた。しかし、脳裏に浮かぶ息子の姿も振り払った。「生きるのに邪魔になる」。思い出に浸るのはぜいたくだった。
午前０時まで時間をつぶせば、ネットカフェは５時間１２００円の割安料金になる。窓のない１畳ほどの空間。いすの背もたれはいっぱいに倒しても４５度。無理に目を閉じても終電を逃した酔客がなだれこむ。外から鍵が掛からず、「シャワーの間に荷物がなくなった」と盗難騒ぎも珍しくない。早朝に出て、コンビニ弁当を買い、仕事に向かう。疲労が蓄積されていく。病気になっても保険はなく、医者に行けない。風邪を押して仕事に行き、あまりの顔色の悪さに帰されたこともあった。
＊
暑くなり始めた昨年５月、ふと思った。「夏を越せるのか」。全財産は財布の数千円。保証人もおらず、アパートを借りるなど非現実的な夢だと思いこんでいた。「だれもあてにできない」と張りつめてきたが、精神的にも、肉体的にも、限界が近づいていた。
ネットカフェのパソコンに「ホームレス」「生活保護」と打ち込んで検索してみた。さいたま市で、住居確保などのホームレス支援をしているＮＰＯ法人「ほっとポット」を見つけ、半信半疑でメールを送った。代表理事の藤田孝典さん（２６）らは、生活保護申請や部屋探しをてきぱきと進めた。他人のために動く人たちに驚いた。
家賃２万５０００円、４畳半一間のアパートに落ち着いた。大の字になって寝ころび、手足を伸ばした。「ああ、１０年ぶりだ」。今年から派遣先で倉庫管理の仕事に就き、月収は１５万～１６万円。生活保護は２カ月計約２０万円を受給後、辞退した。
派遣のままで不安はあるが、生活は格段に安定した。地に足をつけ、少しでも金をためるつもりだ。
◇緊張強いられる短期派遣労働者
厚生労働省が昨年、派遣会社１０社を対象に行った調査結果によると、契約が１カ月未満の短期派遣労働者は１日平均約５万３０００人、日雇いは同約５万１０００人。短期派遣労働者の月平均就業日数は１４日、平均月収は１３万３０００円だった。
厚労省の有識者研究会は、禁止業務への派遣や不正天引き、労災多発など問題が多い日雇い派遣の原則禁止を報告書に盛り込んだ。この報告書をたたき台に労働者派遣法の改正案がまとめられ、秋の臨時国会に提出される予定だ。
ＮＰＯ「自立生活サポートセンター・もやい」の湯浅誠事務局長は「今日明日を生きるため、人間的な諸権利を放棄するまでに追い込まれるのが派遣労働者。希望を失い、自分を大切に思えなくなるのが問題」と指摘している。また、連合本部は「日雇い労働者は、派遣先が頻繁に変わるため、緊張を強いられストレスをためやすい」として労働相談窓口（０１２０・１５４・０５２）の利用を呼びかけている。
----------------------------------
ハンマー投げ：ＩＯＣが９月末に規律委
北京五輪の陸上男子ハンマー投げで２、３位になったベラルーシ２選手が競技後のドーピング検査で禁止薬物に陽性反応を示した問題で、国際オリンピック委員会（ＩＯＣ）が今月末に規律委員会を開くことが４日、明らかになった。同委員会が両選手の違反を確認して失格とすれば、５位の室伏広治（ミズノ）が繰り上がりで銅メダルを獲得する。
陽性反応を示したのは２位のワジム・デビャトフスキーと３位のイワン・チホン。ともに筋肉増強効果のあるテストステロンが異常な数値を示した。規律委は通常、法律専門家ら３人で構成され、検査結果をもとに選手側の言い分も聞いて処分を検討。同委の判断を受け、理事会がメダルはく奪などを最終決定する。
関係者によると、両選手は既に予備検体の検査でも陽性反応を示している。規律委の開催が３週間以上も先となることについて、ＩＯＣは「出席者の日程上の都合」と説明している。
----------------------------------
北の湖理事長、検査やり直し強調
日本相撲協会による抜き打ちの簡易尿検査で大麻に陽性反応を示した幕内露鵬、十両白露山について、検査を新たにやり直す意向を固めている北の湖理事長（元横綱）は５日、「本人は絶対にやっていないと言うんだから、同じ検体を使って別のところでやる方法もある」とあらためて強調した。東京・両国国技館内で行われた横綱審議委員会（横審）によるけいこ総見後に語った。
北の湖理事長は「鎮痛剤など、いろいろな成分もある。警察に見てもらっても構わない」と話し、両力士の秋場所への出場については「構わない」と容認した。
週明けの８日にも精密検査の結果が判明するが、横審の海老沢勝二委員長は「徹底的にやるべきだが、横審が口を挟むことじゃない。理事長が決めることだ」と処分などは協会に一任する考えを示した。また石橋義夫委員は「現場で指導する親方を再教育しなければ」とし、内館牧子委員は「精密検査の結果が陽性であれ陰性であれ、簡易検査で（２人合計で）５度も陽性反応が出た結果を厳粛に受け止めるべきだ。情緒に流されている場合ではない。協会は８日の結果を見て判断するでしょう」と厳しい口調で話した。
--------------------------------------
北の湖理事長「クロ」でも辞任の意思なし
抜き打ちの簡易尿検査で大麻に陽性反応を示した平幕露鵬（２８＝大嶽）と十両白露山（２６＝北の湖）について、日本相撲協会の北の湖理事長（元横綱）が、８日以降に判明する精密検査の結果が再び陽性でも、両関取が大麻取締法違反容疑で逮捕されない限り処分は行わず、自らも辞任の意思がないことが、４日に分かった。また、精密検査の結果にかかわらず、両関取の検査を新たにやり直したい意向も示した。
精密検査の結果が「黒」でも認めない。あくまで露鵬、白露山の言い分を信じる北の湖理事長は言った。「２人が『絶対に大麻を使用していない』と一貫して否定しているのだから、８日に精密検査の結果が出たと言ってもそれで１００％とは言えない。もう１回と言わず、どんどん調べてもらえばいい」。自らの進退や両関取の処分についても「（８日に）結果が出てもすぐに決めることはない」などと語った。
両関取は２日の抜き打ち簡易検査で陽性反応となった。同日中に、五輪競技などで用いるドーピング検査と同じ手法で精密検査を実施。採取された尿の検体はこの日朝まで保存され、都内の検査機関に持ち込まれた。当初は「早ければ５日に判明」とされた精密検査の結果は８日以降にずれこんだが、協会アンチ・ドーピング委員会の大西祥平専門員（慶大教授）は「この結果で大麻を使用したか否かを含めてすべて分かる」と話していた。
しかし、白露山の師匠でもある北の湖理事長は、そこで再び陽性反応が出ても納得するつもりはない。精密検査が判明次第、臨時理事会の開催が予想されるが、近い関係者には「（刑事）事件化されてない段階での解雇処分など考えられない。出場停止なども番付にかかわることで簡単には認められない」と話している。昨年の時津風部屋新弟子死亡事件でも、力士の処分は逮捕後だった。
同時に北の湖理事長は、今回の騒動が協会内の権力争いに利用されているのでは、という疑いも持っているようだ。２日の簡易検査の際も、大西委員が両関取を所属部屋に一度は帰すことを提案しながら、一部理事が猛反対。２人を約６時間以上も検査場にとどめたことに対して「なぜ、大西先生の言う通りにしなかったのだろうか」と不信感を募らせているという。
露鵬、白露山も精密検査の結果にかかわらず、徹底的に無実を主張する構えを見せている。果たしてそれが世間に受け入れられるかどうか。騒動は長期化の様相を呈してきた。
-------------------------------------
露鵬潔白証明へ徹底抗戦、法廷闘争辞さず
抜き打ちの簡易尿検査で大麻に陽性反応を示した平幕露鵬（２８＝大嶽）が４日、精密検査の分析で「黒」となっても、身の潔白を主張するために徹底抗戦する意向を固めた。関係者によると、既に弁護士と相談し、法廷闘争も辞さない覚悟を決めた。また、一両日中に自身が信頼する病院で再検査するという。
関係者は言う。「精密検査の結果が白になると信じているが、万が一に再び陽性反応を示して黒と判定しても、それを受け入れるつもりはないようです。そのために既に弁護士をつける相談を始めました」。やましいところはないとして、露鵬は５日に両国国技館で行われる横綱審議委員会けいこ総見にも出席するという。
一方、十両白露山（２６＝北の湖）に近い関係者は「関取はひざの古傷もあり、日常的に痛み止めを服用している。それに反応したのではないか」と露鵬と同じ理由を上げて反論した。ただし、師匠の北の湖理事長が協会トップの立場という事情から、法廷闘争の覚悟まではできていないという。
------------------------------------
ＮＨＫ「相撲中継撤退」を否定
【大相撲・大麻吸引疑惑】ＮＨＫの福地茂雄会長が４日、東京・渋谷の同局で定例会見を行った。本場所を中継している大相撲の力士による薬物使用疑惑について「スポーツは清潔でなければならず、そういう点では今回の問題は残念だ」と指摘。角界は不祥事が相次いでおり、中継から撤退する可能性に関して問われると「われわれの目線は視聴者にあり、視聴者が見たいというなら放送する。大相撲は国技であり、ＮＨＫが長きにわたって放送してきた希有（けう）な例。放送（の取りやめ）どうこうということは考えていない」と否定した。一部親方からは秋場所の中止を求める声があがっているが、同局側は中止の場合の放送について「（代替放送などの）シミュレーションはしていない」とした。
--------------------------------
効果あるの？理事長は結果判明後に再検査方針
【大相撲・大麻吸引疑惑】北の湖理事長は４日、簡易尿検査でマリフアナに陽性反応を示した露鵬と白露山について、８日にも判明する精密検査の結果にかかわらず、両力士の検査を新たにやり直したい意向を明らかにした。精密検査で採取された尿検体はこの日、検査機関である三菱化学メディエンスに提出。結果発表は早くとも８日、最長で１０日となる可能性もあるが、北の湖理事長は「２人は一貫して否定しているんだから、もう一回きっちりと調べ直さないといけない」と話した。また、自身の進退問題や処分について「（８日に）結果が出てもすぐには決めない」と述べた。
さらに北の湖理事長は、腰を痛めていた露鵬と同様、白露山も左ひざ痛のための鎮痛剤とビタミン剤を８月上旬から３週間以上も服用し続けていたことを明らかにした。
-----------------------------------
元大鵬親方 露鵬を「クロでも信じる」
大相撲の幕内露鵬の入門当初の師匠である納谷幸喜相撲博物館館長（６８）が４日、元弟子の潔白を訴えた。北の湖理事長との話し合いを終えた後「たとえクロだとしても、本人がやっていないといっているのだから信じないといけないし信じる」と語った。
露鵬が鎮痛剤を使用していたことについても触れ「ドーピングは風邪薬にも反応するのだろう」と疑陽性の可能性を挙げた。娘婿の大嶽親方（元関脇貴闘力）には「甘やかすな」、露鵬には「横綱と同じような気持ちでいるな」としかりつけたという。
簡易検査が終わった時点で２人が大麻使用したと決めつける風潮を批判し「クロとなってもいないのに、みなさんが騒ぎ過ぎる。国と国の問題になる」と冷静な対応を願った。露鵬は白露山と同じく０２年夏場所に当時の大鵬部屋に入門。大鵬部屋は０４年に大嶽親方が継承した。
----------------------------------
怒りの松浪さん“お騒がせ理事長辞任すべき”
大相撲の幕内・露鵬（２８＝大嶽部屋）と十両・白露山（２６＝北の湖部屋）の兄弟がマリフアナに陽性反応を示した問題で、日本相撲協会の北の湖理事長（５５＝元横綱）が今月予定の臨時国会で参考人招致される可能性が出てきた。相撲協会を監督する文部科学省の松浪健四郎前副大臣（６１）が４日、自身が委員を務める衆議院の文部科学委員会に理事長の出席を求める考えを示唆した。松浪前副大臣はまた、信頼回復のために理事長の辞任も求めた。
露鵬と白露山がマリフアナに陽性反応を示してから２日。北の湖理事長ら協会幹部は精密検査の結果が出るまで沈黙を守る方針だが、松浪氏の舌ぽうは鋭かった。
「結果がシロになるかクロになるか、どちらになっても協会は難しい対応を迫られる。疑わしきは罰しないのか、それとも罰するのか。いずれにしても国技がこれだけ騒がれて、無視するわけにはいかない。国会が開かれたら（衆議院の文部科学）委員会で理事長を参考人招致して、話を聞くことは十分に考えられる」と強い口調で語った。
松浪氏は副大臣時代、時津風部屋力士の暴行致死事件や間垣親方（元横綱・２代目若乃花）の弟子暴行など度重なる不祥事を受け、相撲協会の閉鎖的な体質を改善するように組織改革を求めてきた。しかし、相撲協会は７月の理事会で文科省が要望していた外部理事の導入の見送りを決定。松浪氏は「文科省への挑戦」と対決姿勢をにじませ、報告に来た北の湖理事長に、当時の渡海紀三朗大臣とともに強制的に外部理事の起用を約束させた経緯がある。
松浪氏は３日、文科省に鈴木恒夫大臣を訪ね、今後の対応を協議したという。「検査の結果がどうなるか分からないが、相撲協会に対しては強い姿勢で臨むと大臣も言われていた」と厳しい表情で語った。２力士の精密検査の結果は週明けの８日に出る見通し。協会関係者の間では、結論がシロの場合、北の湖理事長らの責任問題には発展しないとの見方もある。しかし、松浪氏は「今まで何度も問題が起きて、さらに世間を騒がせた。相撲協会に対して世間が疑う素地ができてしまった。そういう組織にしてしまったトップの責任はある。こうなった以上、辞任して人心を一新し再出発すべき」と北の湖理事長の辞任は避けられないとの考えを示した。
時津風部屋の事件や元若ノ鵬の大麻事件では個々の師匠や部屋の問題として、自らの責任を回避してきた北の湖理事長。だが、今回ばかりは厳しい立場に立たされることになった。
---------------------------------
尿検体の管理は万全？…協会内に放置
2008.9.5 05:05
尿検査を実施した大西祥平・日本アンチ・ドーピング機構専門委員は当初、採取した２人の尿サンプルを３日朝に検査機関へ提出するとし、５日にも結果が出るとの見通しを明らかにした。だが、精密検査の前に露鵬、白露山を「クロ」と断定するムードがつくられたことに、白露山の師匠でもある北の湖理事長が非常に強い不快感を示したという。同委員は「両力士の検体を入れた容器は、衆目の中で厳重に鍵を掛けて保管し、冷蔵保存している」と説明したが、３日夜から４日朝まで協会内に置かれたままだった。理事長の責任問題も絡むだけに、ことは慎重を要する。
----------------------------------
尿検体を専門機関に送る ロシア人力士の大麻反応で
日本相撲協会は４日、簡易的な尿検査で大麻に陽性反応を示したロシア出身の兄弟関取、幕内露鵬（２８）と十両白露山（２６）の尿検体を、より精密な検査を行うために同日午前９時５０分に専門の民間検査機関に送り、検査を依頼したと発表した。
世界反ドーピング機関（ＷＡＤＡ）から国内で唯一の公認を受けている三菱化学メディエンス（東京都港区）が検査に当たる。
２日の抜き打ち尿検査に立ち会った日本アンチ・ドーピング機構の大西祥平・専門委員は、精密検査の結果は早くて５日に判明する見通しを示している。日本相撲協会ではその検査結果を受け、理事会の開催を含めて今後の対応を協議するとしている。
８月に大麻所持容疑で逮捕された元若ノ鵬と親交の深かった露鵬と白露山は、相撲協会や警視庁の事情聴取で大麻使用を全面否定。２日の尿検査では陽性反応が出たため、その場で精密検査を希望していた。
--------------------------------
結果逆転ある？専門家の意見分かれる
【大相撲 大麻吸引疑惑】露鵬と白露山の簡易検査の陽性反応が、精密検査で変わる可能性について専門家の間では意見が分かれている。ドーピング問題に詳しい国際武道大スポーツトレーナー学科の高橋教授（スポーツ医学専門）は、「協会がやった検査は警察がよくやる検査と同じものだと思われる。一般的に見て、複数回、陽性反応が出たものが、その後の検査でシロになる確率は低い」と話す。
その一方で、相撲協会から精密検査について問い合わせを受けた三菱化学メディエンスによると、簡易検査は反応の出方に個人差があり、大麻以外の薬を服用しても陽性反応が出ることもあるという。担当者は「精密検査の結果、陰性となることも珍しくはない」と説明した。
露鵬と白露山の兄弟はマリフアナの吸引を全面的に否定しており、その上で露鵬は、腰痛の薬が検査に反応した可能性があると主張している。高橋教授は「腰痛の薬は痛み止めの消炎鎮痛剤だと予想される。でもそういう物をのんでいたとしても、検査に反応することはまずない」と疑問を投げかける。
ただ、同教授は「たとえばサプリメントなどの補助食品の中にマリフアナと同じ成分のものがあったとして、それを食べたりのんだりした場合は検査で出ることも考えられる」と指摘していた。
---------------------------------
18:24 GMT, Thursday, 4 September 2008 19:24 UK
Danish-German bridge link agreed
New bridge
Denmark and Germany have signed an agreement to build a 20km (12 mile) bridge between their two countries over a stretch of the Baltic Sea.
At the moment, traffic between Copenhagen and Hamburg has to use ferries to cross the Fehmarn strait.
Work on the 4.2bn euros (£3.4bn, $6.2bn) road and rail link should begin in 2012 and be finished by 2018.
However, German environmental groups and some local authorities are strongly opposed to the plan.
The bridge will stretch from Rodbyhavn, on the Danish island of Lolland, to Puttgarden on the German island of Fehmarn.
map
The project will be financed almost entirely by Denmark and the cost recouped through tolls. Germany will only pay for linking the bridge to its existing road and rail system.
The agreement was signed by German Transport Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee and his Danish counterpart Carina Christensen in Copenhagen on Wednesday.
"This is a good day for the strengthening of communication routes across Europe," Mr Tiefensee said.
"This is northern Europe's biggest construction project. When we expand Europe, we also have to build bridges."
A group of Germans opposed to the bridge staged a peaceful protest near where the signing took place.
Their spokesman, Juergen Boos, said the six-year construction would hurt Fehmarn's tourism industry and would be a threat to some 20 million birds along Fehmarn's coasts.
'Expensive project'
The German Nature Protection Federation has said it will exhaust all legal possibilities to try to stop the project.
Michael Cramer, a Green member of the European Parliament, said Denmark and Germany had made "a multi-billion-euro mistake".
The project "is among the most expensive single projects in the [European Union] Trans-European Networks plan and also one of the most dispensable," he said.
However, Carina Christensen dismissed the criticism saying the link would mean a reduction in greenhouse gases compared with the ferries that presently cross the strait.
---------------------------------
08:18 GMT, Thursday, 4 September 2008 09:18 UK
Roman Empire 'raised HIV threat'
Roman
The spread of the Roman Empire through Europe could help explain why those living in its former colonies are more vulnerable to HIV.
The claim, by French researchers, is that people once ruled by Rome are less likely to have a gene variant which protects against HIV.
This includes England, France, Greece and Spain, New Scientist reports.
Others argue the difference is linked to a far larger event, such as the spread of bubonic plague or smallpox.
"We're waiting for the big piece of evidence which will solve this"
Dr Susan Scott
Liverpool University
The idea that something carried by the occupying Romans could have a widespread influence on the genes of modern Europeans comes from researchers at the University of Provence.
They say that the frequency of the variant corresponds closely with the shifting boundaries of the thousand-year empire.
In countries inside the borders of the empire for longer periods, such as Spain, Italy and Greece, the frequency of the CCR5-delta32 gene, which offers some protection against HIV, is between 0% and 6%.
Countries at the fringe of the empire, such as Germany, and modern England, the rate is between 8% and 11.8%, while in countries never conquered by Rome, the rate is greater than this.
However, the researchers do not believe that the genetic difference is due to Roman soldiers or officials breeding within the local population - history suggests this was not particularly widespread, and that invading and occupying armies could have been drawn not just from Italy but from other parts of the empire.
Instead, they say that the Romans may have introduced an unknown disease to which people with the CCR5-Delta32 variant were particularly susceptible.
Disease protection
However, some researchers believe that infections may have played a role - but in reverse -increasing rather than decreasing the frequency of the variant.
Researchers at the University of Liverpool suggested that the variant may have offered protection against pandemics such as the Black Death which swept Europe on a regular basis during and after the Roman era.
These, said the Liverpool researchers, were illnesses which may have been lethal to people without the gene variant, raising its frequency from one in 20,000 people to approximately 10% in Northern Europe.
Dr Susan Scott, one of the researchers, said that the idea of Roman occupation being the driving force behind this was another theory to be considered.
"We just don't know. This is just another piece of the jigsaw, but we're waiting for the big piece of evidence which will solve this."
---------------------------------
16:26 GMT, Tuesday, 2 September 2008 17:26 UK
Egypt tycoon held for Tamim death
Suzanne Tamim
Egyptian tycoon Hisham Talaat Moustafa has been arrested and charged over the brutal murder of Lebanese pop star Suzanne Tamim, legal officials say
Mr Moustafa was charged with ordering and paying for Tamim's killing in Dubai in July, Egyptian prosecutor Abdel Meguid Mahmud said in a statement.
Billionaire property developer Mr Moustafa is also a leading figure in the ruling National Democratic Party.
He sits on the Shura Council, Egypt's upper legislative house.
The indictment says Mr Moustafa paid former police officer Muhsin Sukkari $2m to kill Ms Tamim, adding that the motive was revenge.
The Egyptian prosecutor said Mr Sukkari - who was arrested last month - had confessed to Mr Mustafa's involvement in the case.
Bitter legal battles
Shares in Talaat Moustafa Group, one of Egypt's biggest businesses which is managed by Mr Moustafa, fell sharply as rumours of the indictment began to circulate.
Hisham Talat Mustafa (photograph coutesy of Shoura Council website) Egyptian prosecutors had banned media reports on the case, which has caused intense interest in Egypt and further afield.
The state news agency said Mr Moustafa had now been stripped of his parliamentary immunity. He and Mr Sukkari could face the death penalty if convicted.
Egyptian media has reported that Ms Tamim had a three-year relationship with Mr Moustafa which ended several months ago.
She rose to fame after appearing on a TV talent show in Lebanon in 1996, but her career was marred by stories about a troubled private life.
She was reported to have fled Lebanon for Egypt some years ago after a number of bitter legal battles with her estranged second husband, music producer Adel Maatouk.
Ms Tamim gave up her career and disappeared from public view in Cairo in 2007.
Her body was found at a flat she owned in Dubai, after she had been repeatedly stabbed and her throat slit, forensic officials said.
-----------------------------------
15:10 GMT, Wednesday, 3 September 2008 16:10 UK
Iran's island offices condemned
The six Gulf Cooperation Council states have condemned Tehran for opening offices on disputed islands in the waters between Iran and the UAE.
Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands are controlled by Iran but claimed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with broad Arab support.
Iran says the two administrative offices on Abu Musa are to help ship registration and maritime rescue.
The GCC statement interfered with its internal affairs, a spokesman said.
Correspondents say the GCC fears the move will give Iran greater control of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway used by tankers carrying oil from the Gulf out into the open sea.
"The ministerial council condemns Iran's establishment of two administrative offices on Abu Musa island that belongs to the UAE and demands that Iran remove these illegal installations and respect the UAE's sovereignty on its land," the GCC statement read.
Iran took control of the islands in 1971 when Britain granted independence to its Gulf protectorates.
The UAE has repeatedly proposed resolving the dispute through direct negotiations or arbitration, but Iran has always refused.
"All our country's measures on Abu Musa island are completely legal and in accordance with Iran's rights governing this Iranian island," foreign ministry spokesman Hassan Ghashghavi said in a statement.
-----------------------------------
قمة رباعية في دمشق بين الرئيسين الأسد وساركوزي وأمير قطر وأردوغان
الجمعة, 05 أيلول , 2008 -
دمشق-سانا
عقدت في قصر الشعب قبل ظهر أمس قمة رباعية بين السيد الرئيس بشار الأسد والرئيس الفرنسي نيكولا ساركوزي وسمو الشيخ حمد بن خليفة آل ثاني أمير دولة قطر والسيد رجب طيب أردوغان رئيس الوزراء التركي.
وبعد أن رحب الرئيس الأسد بالقادة المشاركين في هذه القمة قدم سيادته عرضاً لآخر التطورات المتعلقة بالمحادثات غير المباشرة بين سورية وإسرائيل بوساطة تركية.
الرئيس الأسد: المسار الفلسطيني حيوي جداً لعملية السلام
وأشار سيادته الى أهمية وجود إدارة أمريكية جديدة مقتنعة بعملية السلام لدفع هذه العملية وكذلك أهمية الدور الفرنسي في هذا الاتجاه مؤكداً في الوقت ذاته أن تركيا ستبقى الشريك الأساسي في عملية السلام في هذه المرحلة وفي المراحل المقبلة. 20080904-170153.JPG
وقال الرئيس الأسد إنه لا يجوز أن ننسى المسار الفلسطيني لأنه حيوي من أجل تحقيق السلام العادل والشامل في المنطقة ولا نريد أن نحقق فقط اتفاقية سلام وإنما نريد السلام مشيراً إلى أن سورية ولبنان متفقان على ضرورة دخول لبنان في هذه العملية ولكن في مرحلة المفاوضات المباشرة.
وحول الوضع في لبنان قال الرئيس الأسد إن الأمور تسير بشكل إيجابي إذ إن اتفاق الدوحة أبعد شبح الحرب عن لبنان محذراً في الوقت نفسه من أن الوضع في لبنان مازال هشا ولكننا نأمل أن يشهد المستقبل القريب تعاون الجميع لما فيه مصلحة وخير لبنان.
الرئيس الأسد: ضرورة حل الموضوع النووي الإيراني بالطرق السلمية
وفيما يتعلق بالملف النووي الإيراني قال الرئيس الأسد إننا نبحث عن الحل بالطريقة السلمية وسنبقى نتعاون مع فرنسا وسنتواصل مع الإيرانيين في هذا المجال.
وحول الوضع في العراق أكد سيادته أن الحل يكون من خلال حوار وطني بين كل الفصائل مجدداً دعم سورية للعملية السياسية في العراق ومشيراً إلى أن سورية تبذل جهودا وتتعاون مع تركيا في هذا المجال ودعا إلى مزيد من التعاون بين دول جوار العراق لما فيه خير هذا البلد.
وأعرب السيد الرئيس عن دعم سورية لجهود الرئيس الفرنسي حول النزاع في جورجيا من خلال علاقته المباشرة مع الرئيس الروسي لكي يكون هناك استقرار لأن أي خلل في جورجيا سينعكس سلبا على تركيا وعلى الشرق الأوسط مؤكداً إننا لا نريد حربا باردة جديدة.
الرئيس الأسد: تقسيم السودان سيؤدي الى تقسيم المنطقة
وحول أزمة دارفور رأى سيادته أن هذا الموضوع لا يقل أهمية عن موضوع العراق وأن تقسيم السودان سيؤدي إلى تقسيم المنطقة بشكل كامل مشيراً إلى أن سورية تقوم باتصالات عديدة من أجل إيجاد حل حقيقي في دارفور.
بعد ذلك ناقش القادة الأربعة هذه المواضيع وكان النقاش إيجابياً وبناء وعبر الجميع عن أن هذا اللقاء ليس مغلقاً على الآخرين بل هو منفتح لآخرين إذا رغبوا بذلك.. وتمت مناقشة الوضع في الشرق الأوسط والقوقاز.. وتبادل القادة الحديث عن الجهود التي تبذلها دولهم من أجل تجنب الصراعات وإحلال السلام والاستقرار عن طريق الحوار.. وقد عبر القادة عن شكرهم للسيد الرئيس بشار الأسد لمبادرته في دعوتهم إلى هذا اللقاء الهام وعن رغبتهم بالمتابعة في المستقبل لما فيه خير وأمن المنطقة والعالم.
وحضر القمة أعضاء الوفود المرافقة للقادة.
وفي ختام القمة عقد الرئيس الأسد والرئيس ساركوزي والشيخ حمد والسيد أردوغان مؤتمراً صحفياً مشتركاً أعرب في بدايته الرئيس الأسد عن ترحيبه بسمو الشيخ حمد بن خليفة آل ثاني أمير دولة قطر وبالسيد الرئيس نيكولا ساركوزي رئيس الجمهورية الفرنسية وبالسيد رجب طيب أردوغان رئيس وزراء تركيا في دمشق.
وأضاف الرئيس الأسد: إننا التقينا منذ نحو أقل من شهرين في باريس سمو الشيخ حمد والرئيس ساركوزي وأنا واليوم ينضم إلينا الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان أقل من شهرين تبدو قصيرة نسبيا بالنسبة لهذا النوع من اللقاءات لكن بالنسبة لتسارع الأحداث في منطقة الشرق الأوسط فهذا زمن يعتبر زمناً طويلاً في منطقة تتغير فيها المعطيات بشكل أحياناً شبه كامل كل شهر وربما في كل بضعة أسابيع يكون لدينا معطيات جديدة تماماً.. والدول التي لا تتماشى سياساتها مع سرعة هذه الأحداث لايمكن لها أن تكون دولاً فاعلة أو مؤثرة في مجرى الأحداث في مثل هذه المنطقة.
الرئيس الأسد: الموضوع الأساسي الذي اجتمعنا من أجله هو الاستقرار والسلام
وقال الرئيس الأسد: لكن بالرغم من الصورة المعقدة والتي تبدو أحياناً سوداء للوضع في الشرق الأوسط فمؤخراً أي في الأشهر الأخيرة بدأت تظهر بعض البقع المضيئة أو البقع البيضاء على المشهد السياسي والقلق من أن تخفت وتختفي هذه البقع المضيئة.. والأمل بأن نتمكن من جعلها اكبر حتى تحل محل السواد في الشرق الأوسط وذلك هو الذي يدفعنا لمثل هذه اللقاءات وبشكل مكثف بالإضافة للمشاورات التي تحصل بين المسؤولين في المستويات المختلفة بشكل مستمر. 20080904-171126.JPG
وأوضح الرئيس الأسد أن هناك تغيرات كبيرة حصلت في الشرق الأوسط وفي أماكن أخرى من العالم في هذه الفترة أي في الشهرين الأخيرين.. وهناك تفاعل مستمر بين الشرق الأوسط والقضايا الاخرى في العالم بشكل سلبي أو بشكل إيجابي فمشكلة الشرق الاوسط تؤثر على العالم وتؤثر على المناطق المشتعلة في العالم والعكس ايضا صحيح كلما ازدادت هذه المناطق المشتعلة ازداد الوضع سوءاً في الشرق الأوسط.. ولكن الموضوع الأساسي الذي أردنا أن نجتمع من أجله هو الاستقرار.. والاستقرار يعني الحديث عن السلام .
وقال الرئيس الأسد إن سمو الأمير الشيخ حمد من المهتمين والداعمين بشكل مستمر ومعه دولة قطر لعملية السلام ربما هم يلعبون هذا الدور بعيداً عن الأضواء وبصمت والرئيس ساركوزي متحمس جداً لأن يكون لفرنسا دور ولأوروبا دور فاعل في عملية السلام.. ونحن رحبنا ونرحب مرة أخرى بهذا الدور.. وسيكون بكل تأكيد دور أساسي لفرنسا في مرحلة المفاوضات المباشرة ... ففرنسا دولة لها موقع مهم في منطقتنا ودورها ضروري لمساعدة الولايات المتحدة التي ربما بسبب البعد الجغرافي تعرف أقل عن هذه المنطقة وتركيا من الدول القليلة التي اهتمت بعملية السلام بشكل جدي خلال الأعوام الماضية.. وهي الدولة الوحيدة التي نجحت في إطلاق المفاوضات غير المباشرة في ظروف كان يبدو فيها السلام بعيداً جداً حتى عن مجرد التفكير به.
وقال الرئيس الأسد إن هناك تساؤلات كثيرة كيف تم هذا الشيء.. هناك عوامل عديدة ولكن أهمها مصداقية الرئيس رجب طيب أرودغان من دون مصداقية من دون ثقة لايمكن أن تكون هناك لا وساطة ولا رعاية لعملية السلام ..فنحن نوجه الشكر ونشيد بجهود الرئيس أردوغان وبجهود المفاوضين الأتراك والحكومة التركية بشكل عام.. طبعاً لايكفي أن نتحدث عن المسار السوري فالمسار الفلسطيني هو حيوي جداً لعملية السلام ونتمنى أن يكون هناك دعم دولي لكي يتقدم هذا المسار.. لكي لانتحدث فقط عن توقيع عملية سلام وانما نتحدث عن سلام يتحقق على الواقع ويكون بين الشعوب وليس فقط بين المسؤولين او بين المفاوضين وبين الحكومات.
الرئيس الأسد: مرتاحون للخطوات الإيجابية التي تمت في لبنان بعد مؤتمر الدوحة
وأضاف الرئيس الأسد أن لبنان كان جزءاً أساسياً من الحديث اليوم ونحن مرتاحون للخطوات الإيجابية التي تمت في لبنان خاصة بعد مؤتمر الدوحة فدولة قطر تمكنت بجهود حثيثة من ان تبعد شبح الحرب عن لبنان في هذا المؤتمر وتعيد الأمور إلى نصابها الصحيح.. وهناك خطوات مازالت منتظرة من اللبنانيين وفي مقدمتها الحوار الذي سيحل أو يفترض أن يحل المشاكل الأساسية العالقة أيضاً الخطوات الإيجابية التي تمت كان جزء أساسي منها متعلقاً بزيارة الرئيس ميشال سليمان إلى سورية حيث تم الاتفاق على بدء العلاقات الثنائية.. والآن الخطوات القانونية في هذا الإطار تسير قدماً وسيكون في يوم من الأيام بعد أن تنتهي هذه الخطوات سفراء بين البلدين.
ولفت الرئيس الأسد إلى أنه في هذا الإطار هناك اجماع على دعم الرئيس ميشال سليمان لكي يرعى كل هذه العملية التي بدأت مع انتخابه ومازالت مستمرة وصولاً إلى الانتخابات انتهاء بكل القرارت التي يقرها المتحاورون في لبنان عندما تنتهي عملية الحوار.
وقال الرئيس الأسد: تحدثنا عن الموضوع النووي الإيراني ووجهة نظرنا دائماً الحل بطرق سلمية وتحدثنا عن ضرورة حل هذا الموضوع بالطرق السلمية وعبرنا أمس بالمؤتمر الصحفي أنا والرئيس ساركوزي عن رغبتنا في أن نرى كل القضايا تحل بشكل سلمي.
وأضاف الرئيس الأسد: تحدثنا عن موضوع القوقاز.. وهنا أريد أن أؤكد بأن موضوع القوقاز ليس منفصلاً كثيراً عن الشرق الأوسط كمنطقة مشتعلة إذا كانت هناك نار في مكان ما وكانت هناك نار في مكان اخر فسيكون لدينا نار ثالثة بديلة اكبر بكثير من النارين.. لذلك نحن قلقون من عودة الحرب الباردة كما يتخيل البعض لانها ستكون اسوأ مما سبقها في القرن العشرين وستكون منطقتنا اي الشرق الاوسط ساحة من ساحاتها.
وقال الرئيس الأسد: لا نريد ساحة لصراع دولي مرة اخرى وفي هذا الإطار نحن ندعم المبادرة التي قام بها الرئيس ساركوزي من خلال علاقته المباشرة مع الرئيس الروسي ميدفيديف ونتمنى أن تثمر عن تحقيق الهدوء وعودة السلام إلى منطقة القوقاز.. كما ندعم المبادرة التي قامت بها تركيا والمتعلقة بحوار بين دول القوقاز.
وأضاف الرئيس الأسد: كان موضوع دارفور من النقاط المهمة وكانت هناك رغبة منا جميعاً بأن نرى حلا لهذه المشكلة بشكل قريب.. وهناك نقاط معينة تم اقتراحها ستتم متابعتها بين وزراء الخارجية لكي يكون هناك حوار مع الحكومة السودانية بناء على الاتصالات التي تمت معهم ومع عدد من الدول العربية المهتمة ومع الاتحاد الافريقي ومع جامعة الدول العربية.
الرئيس الاسد: نتمنى التوصل لحل قريب في العراق من خلال حوار وطني
وقال الرئيس الأسد: بحثنا موضوع العراق.. وهناك دعم للعملية السياسية فيه.. وهناك نقاط عالقة ربما لن تؤدي للاستقرار فيه نتمنى أن يكون هناك حل قريب من خلال حوار وطني بين الأخوة العراقيين.
وأضاف الرئيس الأسد: بالمختصر التقينا اليوم من أجل الاستقرار من خلال الحوار ولا يوجد استقرار من دون حوار.
ورداً على سؤال حول ما إذا كان هناك تحرك من خلال أحد أطراف هذه القمة الرباعية لاستعادة الدور الأمريكي في عملية السلام قال الرئيس الأسد: بالنسبة لدور الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية نحن دائماً نتحدث عن ضرورة وجود الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية كالقوة الأكبر في العالم لرعاية عملية السلام ولإيجاد ضمانات ولعلاقتها من جانب اخر مع إسرائيل.. وطبعاً من دون حوار لا يمكن أن تكون هناك رعاية لان الرعاية لديها بحاجة إلى آلية ولثقة مع الأطراف المعنية في أي صلات فلا بد من هذا الحوار.. وهذا الحوار لم يبدأ حتى هذه اللحظة لذلك نحن نتحدث عن السلام والمفاوضات المباشرة لعملية السلام في المرحلة المقبلة اي بعد الانتخابات الأمريكية.
وأضاف الرئيس الأسد: أما بالنسبة للدول الموجودة الان سيكون لها دور مع الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية.. ففرنسا وقطر وتركيا لها علاقات جيدة مع الولايات المتحدة الامريكية.. والدول الثلاث مهتمة بعملية السلام وبشكل بديهي اعتقد في أي حوار وأي اتصال وأي مرحلة مقبلة سيتصلون مباشرة مع اميركا لتشجيعها بهذا الاتجاه.. لم نتحدث حول هذه النقطة ولكن هذا شيء بديهي باعتقادي.
من جهته قال الرئيس الفرنسي نيكولا ساركوزي رداً على سؤال حول إمكانية تحقيق السلام في ضوء الأزمات السياسية المتتالية في إسرائيل إن فرنسا تعتمد قبل كل شيء على الاستقرار والسلام.. ونحن نتواجد اليوم مع سمو امير دولة قطر الذي لعبت بلاده دورا بشأن لبنان وعملية السلام.. وفرنسا صديقة لقطر وتعمل معها.. ونحن سعداء بالنجاح الذي ازال الاستعصاء السياسي الذي كان حاصلاً في لبنان.
ساركوزي: ما قام به الرئيس الأسد في لبنان كان مهماً لإعادة الاستقرار إليه
وأضاف الرئيس ساركوزي بأن ما قام به الرئيس بشار الأسد كان أحد الأسباب الذي أعاد العلاقات وبناء الثقة بين لبنان وسورية ورئيس الوزراء التركي يلعب دوراً مهما في المفاوضات غير المباشرة بين سورية وإسرائيل.. هي مفاوضات غير مباشرة.. وهي أفضل من أن لا تكون هناك مفاوضات أبداً كما قال الرئيس الأسد عندما نبدأ بالمفاوضات المباشرة سيكون لتركيا دور تقوم به ودور للولايات المتحدة وفرنسا وأوروبا ونحن مستعدون للقيام بهذه الادوار كافة.. وهذا ليس خبرا اضافيا إذا ما كان الإسرائيليون والفرنسيون يتحاورون ويتفاوضون مباشرة من أجل السلام.
وقال الرئيس ساركوزي إن السياسة الحذرة هى التى يمكن أن تخمد نار الفتن في الشرق الأوسط ويجب أن نتقدم ولن نتقدم بمفردنا وفيما يتصل بالولايات المتحدة الأمريكية نحن أصدقاء للأمريكيين ونثق بهم والأمريكيون يثقون بفرنسا..وسورية وفرنسا ليس لديهما التحليل المشترك ففرنسا تشجع سورية على خط السلام مع إسرائيل.
20080904-221953.JPG
وأضاف ساركوزي نحن بحاجة إلى سورية فى لبنان ومع ايران ..والولايات المتحدة الأمريكية تعرف الدور الكبير الذي تقوم به سورية في هذا الإطار ونحن نتكلم بهذا الموضوع.. وفرنسا تلعب دوراً لكى تفتتح عصر السياسة المنفتحة مع سورية.
وقال ساركوزي إن الأمريكيين يعرفون أننا هنا وما هي الشروط التي تجمعنا وبماذا نتكلم وعن ماذا سنتكلم وأريد ان أقول لزملائي الحاضرين بأن هذا اللقاء الرباعي لا يمنع الآخرين من أن ينضموا إلينا.
وحول الملف النووي الإيراني أوضح ساركوزي أن فرنسا وسورية لديهما وجهتا نظر قد تكون متقاربة او متباعدة تجاه ذلك ويمكن لسورية أن يكون لها تأثير فى هذا الموضوع.
وقال الرئيس ساركوزي نحن نعمل من اجل السلام فى هذه المنطقة وأنا سعيد بأنني ساهمت في هذه القمة مع رجال لهم رؤى قد تكون مختلفة ولكنهم يعملون جميعهم لبناء الثقة ولبناء السلام.
وأضاف الرئيس ساركوزي: تكلمنا عن القوقاز .. ونحن سعداء بان يكون لفرنسا الدور الذي يمكن أن تقوم به وان تخدم السلام في هذه المنطقة وفرنسا ستكون وفية لتاريخها وهذا هو السبب المباشر لوجودي على هذه المنصة.
ورداً على سؤال حول لبنان قال الرئيس ساركوزي .. فرنسا تؤكد على استقلال وسلام وسيادة لبنان وبدأنا مسيرة مع الرئيس الأسد في هذا الموضوع مرحلة فمرحلة..وهذه المسيرة احترمت من كافة الأطرف التي لعبت دورها.. ونحن نتمنى ان يستمر هذا.. وعلينا أن نتكلم ونتفاهم فيما بيننا ونعطي لأنفسنا أهدافاً مستقبلية نلتقي بها لنبني الثقة.
وأضاف ساركوزي ..هناك وجهات نظر مختلفة ونحاول تجاوزها وما فعلناه كان لصالح اللبنانيين كافة وسنعمل جنبا الى جنب مع سورية لبناء هذه الثقة.
الشيخ حمد: نرفض أي صراع مع إيران تزج فيه دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي
20080904-221747.jpg
من جهته قال سمو أمير قطر الشيخ حمد بن خليفة آل ثاني رداً على سؤال حول التحرك باتجاه ايران ورأي دول الخليج في العلاقة معها.. نرفض ونعمل على تجنيب منطقتنا اي صراع مع ايران يحاولون زج دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي فيه.. مضيفا انه بحكم رئاستنا للمجلس تتركز محاولاتنا في الحفاظ على الامن والاستقرار والازدهار والتعاون الاقتصادي في منطقتنا.
وأشار الشيخ حمد إلى أنه لا توجد دولة خليجية لديها مشكلة مع إيران عدا الإمارات حول الجزر الثلاث علماً أن أقوى علاقات اقتصادية بين دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي وايران هي بين الإمارات وإيران.
أردوغان: سورية أبدت مواقف بناءة في عملية السلام
20080904-221828.jpg
من جهته قال رئيس الوزراء التركي رجب طيب أردوغان رداً على سؤال حول المفاوضات غير المباشرة السورية الإسرائيلية.. إن سورية والرئيس الأسد قد أدوا مواقف كانت بالفعل بناءة ونحن سعداء جدا على ما حصلنا عليه من نتائج واستمرار هذه المفاوضات حتى لو كانت غير مباشرة..ونحن على ثقة تامة بأننا سنحصل على ثمار هذه الجولات وسنستمر بها.
وأضاف أردوغان: إن أربع مراحل تمت، والتطورات التي حدثت على الساحة الإسرائيلية أدت إلى تأخير المرحلة الخامسة.. مشيراً إلى أن العملية ستستمر في هذه المرحلة.
---------------------------------
ساركوزي يفتتح مدرسة شارل ديغول الفرنسية بدمشق
الجمعة, 05 أيلول , 2008 - 05:50
دمشق-سانا
افتتح الرئيس الفرنسي نيكولا ساركوزي صباح أمس مدرسة شارل ديغول الفرنسية في دمشق.
ونوه الرئيس ساركوزي في كلمة له في هذه المناسبة بالاهتمام الذي يوليه السيد الرئيس بشار الأسد لتطوير التعاون السوري الفرنسي في مختلف المجالات وبما تقوم به سورية في تفعيل الفرانكوفونية مشيراً إلى أهمية العلاقات الثقافية التي تربط بين البلدين.
20080904-220302.jpg
وقال الرئيس الفرنسي إن بناء هذه المدرسة هو خطوة في هذا الطريق معبراً عن شكره للحكومة السورية التي سمحت بأن تبصر هذه المدرسة النور والتي تجمع طلاباً سوريين وفرنسيين معاً.
وأشار الرئيس ساركوزي إلى رغبته باستمرار تطور العلاقات بين سورية وفرنسا مؤكداً أهمية المصالح الاقتصادية والتجارية التي تربط بينهما داعياً إلى الارتقاء بها لتصل إلى مستوى طموحات البلدين.
كما أشار الرئيس الفرنسي في كلمته إلى قرار بلاده إطلاق الحوار السياسي مع سورية أملاً أن يستمر هذا التطور الإيجابي كما كرر مواقف فرنسا فيما يتعلق بالملف النووي الإيراني والمفاوضات غير المباشرة بين سورية وإسرائيل بوساطة تركية مؤكداً أن فرنسا دعمت دائماً حق سورية في استعادة الجولان وأنها ستبذل كل الجهد لتدعم إقامة السلام في المنطقة.
20080904-220343.jpg
حضر الافتتاح وزير الخارجية الفرنسي برنار كوشنير والوفد الرسمي المرافق للرئيس ساركوزي والدكتور علي سعد وزير التربية والدكتور بشر الصبان محافظ دمشق.
وأقيمت المدرسة الفرنسية حسب المعايير الاقتصادية والبيئية وتضم كادراً تدريسياً مميزاً وتبلغ ساحة البناء المؤلف من أربعة طوابق 11 ألف متر مربع وأقيمت على مساحة تبلغ هكتارين وتتألف المدرسة من 17 صفاً للمرحلة الابتدائية و14 صفاً للمرحلة الإعدادية والثانوية وتستوعب 840 طالباً منهم 480 من عمر 3 إلى 12 سنة.
------------------------------
Russia to create electromagnetic super weapon
04.09.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/science/tech/106296-electromagnetic_super_weapon-0
Defense strategists place their stakes on high-tech weapons. Nearly all superpowers of the world conduct their works in the development of such weapons. It transpired recently that Russian scientists developed a generator, the capacity of which is comparable to that of a nuclear unit. It is a genuine scientific breakthrough, and it is already clear that the defense industry will not be the only field where the new super device is going to be used.
An individual, who is miles away from physics and is only familiar with home electricity, will not be able to imagine the power of several billions of watts. It will be even harder to imagine that such power can be generated by a device that is fit to be placed on a table.
“The devices generating such power – billions of watts – used to be very large in size before. This appliance has a very short impulse, which makes it possible to have it on a desk – it is a very compact device,” the Director of Lebedev’s Institute of Physics, Vice President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Gennady Mesyats said.
Mikhail Yalandin, one of the creators of the miraculous machine, said that the scientists had assembled two of such devices in Yekaterinburg – a bigger and a smaller one.
Never before had a relatively small device ever been able to generate electromagnetic impulses the capacity of which could be comparable to a huge water power plant. It is ten times as much as any foreign-made analogue.
The new device can be used practically anywhere. The invention will let specialists create radar telescopes and radars of new generation. Missile troops and defense departments on the whole will most likely be the first customers to order the appliance. The new generators can also be used to check the stability of large energy objects and systems. The device is capable of imitating the strays which appear as a result of a lightning strike or even a nuclear blast.
It is impossible to take photographs or film a video of the new generator in action because it immediately puts all electronic devices out of order.
The research that was used for the creation of such a device can be applied in the development of electromagnetic weapons.
“No one has ever studied biological effects of such impulses. It is obvious that it affects the electronic equipment near it. Computers or cell phones have to be screened from such radiation,” Mikhail Yalandin, a senior specialist of the Institute of Electrophysics said.
The device was called Nika, which means ‘victory’.
-----------------------------------
中国製の義歯輸入急増、歯科技工士８１人が国相手に訴訟
中国製の入れ歯や差し歯などの「義歯」を巡り、全国の歯科技工士８１人が、国を相手取り、海外への義歯製作の委託禁止などを求める訴訟を東京地裁に起こしている。
国内では、義歯を製作できるのは歯科医と歯科技工士に限られているが、海外品については規定がない。国は「歯科医が安全と判断すれば輸入は自由」との姿勢だが、技工士側は「無資格者が作っており、放置すれば健康被害を招く恐れがある」と猛反発している。
入れ歯や差し歯、欠けた歯へのかぶせ物などは通常、歯科医が個々の患者の歯型や体質に合わせ、歯科技工士に指示して一つずつ作らせる。歯科技工士は国家資格。無資格者の義歯製作は歯科技工士法で禁じられており、違反すると懲役１年以下の罰則もある。
一方、訴状などによると、近年、主に中国から輸入された義歯が医療現場に浸透。日本の歯科医の指示を中国の技工所に伝え、製作された義歯を輸入する業者も現れた。医療保険は適用されないが、値段は日本で作ったものの半額から３分の１程度。近年、歯科医間の過当競争が進んでいることから、コストダウンを図るための需要は多いとみられ、全国保険医団体連合会が７月に緊急調査したところ、全国２００８か所の歯科診療所のうち１３０か所が「海外発注の経験あり」と回答した。
訴訟で原告側は「義歯製作が厳しく規制されているのは、人の口の中に入れるものだけに安全性を確保する必要があるため。海外なら無資格者がどんな材料を使って作ってもいい、というのでは法律の趣旨に反する」と主張。厚生労働省歯科保健課は「安全性は歯科医が責任を持って判断できるし、海外製義歯の危険が具体的に明らかになった例もない」と反論する。
同省は２００５年、「海外品は材料の性状が明確ではない」として、患者に材料などを説明し、同意を得て使うよう求める通達を出した。年度内に海外製義歯に関する研究班を設置し、実態を調べる予定だが、原告代表の歯科技工士、脇本征男さん（６６）は「何のために歯科技工士という国家資格があるのか。患者への危険が明らかになってからでは遅い」と話す。
一方、中国製の義歯を積極的に取り入れている歯科医からは異論もある。名古屋市の歯科医、篠田鉄郎さん（５１）は０５年から広東省の大型技工所と取引を始めた。これまでに数百人の義歯製作を委託し、患者には中国製であることを説明しているという。
「中国製といっても材料は欧米のもので、すべて粗悪品というのは偏見。日本の腕のいい技工士の製品と質は変わらない」と話す篠田さんだが、一方で「中国には質の低い技工所があるのは確からしい。国は裁判を機に、何らかの規制を設ける必要があるだろう」とも指摘している。判決は２６日に言い渡される。
--------------------------------
棚橋さんの遺体、司法解剖へ 死因特定へ県警
2008年09月04日09:03
タイの首都バンコクに滞在していた山県市出身の棚橋貴秀さん（３３）が殺害された事件で、岐阜県警は、棚橋さんの遺体を日本で司法解剖することを決めた。タイ警察の司法解剖では死因が判明していないため、遺族の承諾を得て県警が独自に司法解剖して死因の特定を目指す。
調べでは、棚橋さんは行方不明となった８月５日に殺害された可能性が高いが、遺体の腐敗が進んでおり、タイ警察は死因を特定していない。このためタイに渡航中の棚橋さんの遺族が帰国した後、警察庁が遺体を日本に搬送し、県警が岐阜大学で司法解剖して死因を調べることにした。
また、県警は３日午前、警察庁と連携しタイに捜査員６人を派遣。タイ警察が殺人容疑で日本人の男２人の逮捕状を取っているため、タイ警察と情報交換したり、捜査資料の提供などを要請する。捜査員は１２日に帰国する予定。
これまでの県警の任意の聴取に対し、タイ警察が逮捕状を取った愛知県一宮市出身の男（３０）は日本に帰国後、棚橋さんの口座から現金１０００万円以上を引き出したと証言。大阪府吹田市出身の男（３０）は事件の関与を否定しているが県警は２人を窃盗容疑で調べている。
-----------------------------------
タイの邦人殺害で日本の捜査員が現場視察
タイの首都バンコクに長期滞在していた岐阜県山県市出身の棚橋貴秀さん（３３）が殺害された事件で、日本から派遣された岐阜県警の捜査員ら７人が４日、遺体発見現場のタイ中部の山中を視察、タイ警察と情報交換した。
捜査員らは３日にバンコク入り。アパートの鍵など、棚橋さんの所持品が見つかった中部アユタヤ県のガソリンスタンドも４日に訪れた。タイ警察は殺人容疑で、既に帰国した愛知県出身の男と、大阪府出身の男の逮捕状を取っている。岐阜県警は２人から任意で聴取しており、供述内容などをタイ側に伝える。
愛知県出身の男は棚橋さんの口座から約１０００万円を引き出し、大阪府出身の男に渡したと供述、タイ警察は日本側の情報をもとに事件の解明を進める方針。
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment