Cost of US loans bail-out emerging
By Krishna Guha in Washington and Michael Mackenzie and Nicole Bullock in New York
Published: September 9 2008 15:57 | Last updated: September 10 2008 00:34
The US on Tuesday began to face the financial consequences of the bail-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after Congress’s budget watchdog said the housing giants’ operations should sit on the government’s books and the cost of insuring against a US default crept higher.
With the stock market tumbling, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie meant the companies should no longer be regarded as outside the public sector.
Peter Orszag, CBO director, said: “It is the CBO view that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be directly incorporated into the federal budget.”
The Bush administration appeared to be caught by surprise. A spokeswoman for the Office of Management and Budget told the Financial Times: “We are working through this issue with Treasury and other stakeholders.”
The White House could take a different view on Fannie and Freddie and exclude them from its budgets. But this would be difficult because the CBO is regarded as the leading independent authority on US finances and its assessments guide spending decisions by Congress.
The two mortgage companies have between them $5,400bn in liabilities, equal to the entire publicly traded debt of the US, alongside mortgage-related assets of about equal value. These will now all be accounted for by the CBO, although public accounting rules mean that its tally of US government debt may not necessarily increase by $5,400bn.
The CBO bombshell came as it raised its baseline estimate for the US budget deficit to $407bn this year and a record $438bn next year owing to falling revenues and higher spending, some of it related to the fiscal stimulus.
The price of credit default swaps on five-year US government debt hit a record 18 basis points in early trading, according to CMA Datavision. This means that it costs $18,000 a year to buy insurance on $10m of US government debt.
Tim Backshall, chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research, said the price implied that the US was more likely to default on its obligations than Japan, Germany, France, Quebec, the Netherlands and several Scandinavian countries. Traders said the CDS market for US debt was illiquid and it was hard to see evidence of increased concern over US creditworthiness in broader market prices.
The price of US government bonds rose and yields fell across the board, as concern over the economic outlook overwhelmed any rise in perceived credit risk. Jay Mueller, senior portfolio manager at Wells Capital Management, said: “We are seeing flight-to-quality buying of Treasuries.”
Both Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service said the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac did not affect the US’s triple-A sovereign credit ratings. “It does represent some deterioration in the US balance sheet, but it’s well within what we would call the triple-A space,” said Steven Hess, senior credit officer at Moody’s.
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The Short View: Dollar post-Freddie/Fannie
By John Authers, Investment Editor
Published: September 9 2008 21:40 | Last updated: September 9 2008 21:40
What will nationalising Fannie and Freddie do to the buck?
In the short run - which might run for many months - nationalising Frannie moves the dollar upwards. It reassures the big emerging markets banks and institutions that held the agencies' bonds, and removes the risk of a sudden exit of funds from the dollar.
And, by making clear the gravity of the US housing crisis and doing little to resolve it, it strengthens sentiment that the world is in the grip of an economic slowdown. That makes investors less worried about inflation, and that in turn reduces oil prices.
At the level of trading, the fortunes of oil prices and the dollar continue to be very closely linked. When oil prices fall, selling of dollars also falls and the dollar gains.
In the long term, the calculus is more complex. Jerome Booth of Ashmore Capital in London suggests that the dollar is not, as yet, treated the same way as an emerging market currency.
In other countries, a huge increase in the government's liabilities like this would have led to a run on the currency.
The buck is largely treated as something qualitatively different - the world's true reserve currency. But there is already a steady attempt by the world's central banks, and sovereign wealth funds, to diversify their reserves and limit their exposure to the dollar.
If the credit default swap market is to be believed, there is now a slightly higher chance of a sovereign default in the US than in such countries as Germany, Japan, France and Norway.
In the longer run, the Frannie takeover will raise the default risk associated with the dollar, and weaken it as this prompts investors to move away.
The nasty problem for asset allocators now is to know when those long-term factors will swamp the short-term factors supporting the greenback.
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The Short View: Worst day for US stocks
By John Authers, Investment Editor
Published: September 9 2008 23:26 | Last updated: September 9 2008 23:26
Wall Street has subjected investors to many ugly afternoons since the credit market came unstuck last summer. There is a case that Tuesday’s was the ugliest.
Stocks’ headline performance was bad enough, with the S&P 500 shedding 3.4 per cent, its worst single day of a bad year.
But the performance of energy and financial stocks in the S&P is most unsightly. Both fell more than 6 per cent – the first day both sectors have fallen that much this decade.
Map the oil price against the S&P financials on a chart for this year, and it looks like an image of a Greek urn – almost symmetrical, with rises in oil matched by falls for financials and vice versa.
Energy grew at the expense of financials until mid-July, then banks grew at the expense of oil.
On this logic, the collapse of crude below $102 should have been the cue for rejoicing and a stock rally. Instead, the two sectors are locked in each other’s embrace and falling.
The boost to the market from cheaper oil has run out, with the S&P barely 2 per cent above its low of the year, set on July 15, when the oil price peaked and many believed the bear market had hit bottom.
Traders believe the slowing world economy is driving both sectors. Lower oil prices imply lower demand, imply bad times for banks. Trouble for financials implies further restrictions on the supply of credit, implies lower demand for oil.
The cheerful logic that lower rates to fight the crisis would send liquidity gushing off elsewhere, popular over the past 12 months, has been abandoned.
The shot in the arm to risk appetite from the historic takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac did not even last 24 hours, replaced by new worries about Lehman Brothers.
It is hard to find any positives, except that maybe the market is finally ready to capitulate.
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Crude prices fall below $100 mark
By Carola Hoyos in Vienna and Javier Blas in London
Published: September 9 2008 19:41 | Last updated: September 9 2008 23:24
Crude oil prices fell below the critical $100 a barrel level on Tuesday for the first time since April as hurricane Ike shifted its course away from the Gulf of Mexico and traders bet Opec would leave production unchanged.
Since jumping to an all-time high of $147.27 last July, the combination of the slowdown in the global economy, which is damping oil demand, and higher production from the Opec oil cartel have brought down oil prices 30 per cent.
Brent crude, the European reference, hit a low on Tuesday of $99.04 a barrel and closed at $99.30, down more than $4 on the day.
West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, fell to an intraday low of $101.85 a barrel, its lowest in five months. In late trading it was $102.10, down $4.24 from Monday’s close.
In London, the October contract of ICE Brent closed at $99.43 a barrel, down $4.01 after slipping as far as $98.94. In New York, the October contract of Nymex WTI crude hit a low of $101.74, before settling at $102.41, down $3.93.
Traders said the return to double-digit oil prices would depend on Ike’s final course and Opec’s production during the next few months.
The market was waiting on Tuesday for the end of the cartel’s meeting in Vienna which was being held overnight because of the Ramadan fasting. Ahead of the gathering, Ali Naimi, Saudi oil minister, signalled that he was comfortable with the current supply and demand outlook, making it less likely Opec would formally decide to cut its output.
“The market is fairly well balanced and we have worked very hard since June’s meeting to bring prices to where they are now,” he said.
The strengthening of the US dollar against the euro and sterling is providing a cushion to Opec countries as it means that the barrel’s purchasing power in the eurozone and the UK – two key trading partners for Opec – remains strong.
Another Saudi official made clear high prices were not necessarily in the kingdom’s favour. As prices surged this year, Riyadh grew concerned about demand destruction, especially in the US, Europe and Japan. It was one reason the kingdom increased output unilaterally to the highest in more than 25 years.
But sentiment among Opec ministers has clearly shifted from feeling unable to pump enough oil to stop runaway prices to concern that supply is already or is about to outstrip demand as world economies sputter.
It is possible that the group’s communiqué will remind members of their official production limits – or quotas – obligations, which Saudi Arabia and others brushed aside when oil prices soared.
This would give particularly Saudi Arabia some cover to quietly cut back the extra barrels it pumped on the market in recent months. But that piece of the communiqué was last night being fiercely debated among members.
According to the International Energy Agency, Opec members subject to quotas last month pumped 30.4m barrels a day, well above the 29.7m b/d official quota.
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Opec makes surprise cut to oil output
By Carola Hoyos in Vienna
Published: September 10 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 10 2008 03:42
Opec on Wednesday surprised the oil markets by announcing that it would make a small but symbolic reduction in its output because the oil cartel views the market as oversupplied.
Traders had been betting the group, which controls about 40 per cent of world oil production, would maintain status quo, and at best make gradual unannounced reductions in its production.
Instead, Opec, after a five hour session in Vienna, agreed to abide by the production limit it had set for its members in September 2007. This would reduce the group’s production by 520,000 barrels per day over the next 40 days.
If all members adhered to the cut, Opec production would fall back to 28.8m barrels per day.
U.S. crude for October delivery was up 54 cents at $103.80 a barrel, reversing earlier losses of more than $1 a barrel. Crude oil prices on Tuesday fell below the critical $100 a barrel level for the first time since April as hurricane Ike shifted its course away from the Gulf of Mexico and traders bet Opec would leave production unchanged.
Since jumping to an all-time high of $147.27 in July, the combination of the slowdown in the global economy, which is damping oil demand, and higher production from the Opec oil cartel has brought down oil prices 30 per cent.
Opec said that oil prices had dropped significantly in recent weeks driven by lower demand especially in developed countries, increased oil supply, the strengthening of the US dollar, and easing of geopolitical tensions,.
“All the foregoing indicates a shift in market sentiment causing downside risks to the global oil market outlook,” Opec said in a statement.
The strengthening of the US dollar against the euro and sterling is providing a cushion to Opec countries as it means that the barrel's purchasing power in the eurozone and the UK remains strong.
The issue of whether to include a call for Opec members to abide by their quotas, which they had brushed aside when oil prices surged in July, was hotly debated in the longer-than-usual closed-door meeting. Iran and Venezuela had earlier in the week called for production cuts, but others had been less enthusiastic, fearing such a move would worsen the problem of demand erosion.
One of the few analysts that called the meeting’s outcome correctly was Washington-based PFC Energy, which yesterday anticipated a 500,000 barrel a day cut. In a note it said: ”The communique text will likely focus on the need to abide by agreed-upon production targets rather than on numerical targets for cuts.”
Now Opec has the tough task of abiding by what it has agreed. The lion share of the cutback will have to come from Saudi Arabia, which boosted its production unilaterally in July when prices were high. If the group does not now attain at least some of the announced cutbacks, it risks losing credibility in the market and exasperating the price drop as traders bet on the cartel’s powerlessness.
The cut came as a surprise after Ali Naimi, Saudi oil minister, signalled that he was comfortable with the current supply and demand outlook.
"The market is fairly well balanced and we have worked very hard since June's meeting to bring prices to where they are now," he said before the meeting, which was held overnight because of the Ramadan fasting.
Another Saudi official made clear high prices were not necessarily in the kingdom's favour. As prices surged this year, Riyadh grew concerned about demand destruction, especially in the US, Europe and Japan. It was one reason the kingdom increased output unilaterally to the highest in more than 25 years.
Sentiment among Opec ministers has clearly shifted from feeling unable to pump enough oil to stop runaway prices to concern that supply is already or is about to outstrip demand as world economies sputter.
According to the International Energy Agency, Opec members subject to quotas last month pumped 30.4m barrels a day, well above the 29.7m b/d official quota.
Michael Wittner, head of oil research at Société Générale, said the cartel might have already begun this month to trim its output, pointing to "recent weakness in tanker freight rates". Igor Sechin, Russia's vice-premier, called for closer co-operation between Opec and his country in a further sign of Moscow's determination to flex its muscle in energy markets.
Opec also officially suspended Indonesia’s full membership to the group.
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Ukraine’s EU hopes dashed
By Tony Barber in Paris
Published: September 9 2008 15:17 | Last updated: September 9 2008 20:29
The European Union declined on Tuesday to offer Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, frustrating Ukrainian officials who said the bloc had thrown away a golden opportunity to stabilise its eastern frontier and encourage political and economic reform in Kiev.
A communiqué issued at an EU-Ukrainian summit set out a framework for closer ties between Kiev and the 27-nation bloc, but omitted the crucial words “membership perspective” to describe Ukraine’s future relationship with the EU.
Ukraine, a country of 46m people wedged between the EU and Russia, had hoped that Russia’s military assault on Georgia last month, and its subsequent attempt to partition the former Soviet republic, might prompt the EU to go the extra mile for Ukraine.
Tuesday’s communiqué affirmed the EU’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and held out the prospect of agreements on free trade and easier travel for Ukrainians to EU countries, but stopped short of a promise of EU accession.
“Be clear that this agreement shuts no door, and maybe it opens some doors. This is the most we could offer, but I believe it to be a substantial step,” Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, told reporters.
Diplomats said Germany and the Netherlands, and to a lesser extent Belgium, were the most reluctant to state clearly that Ukraine could one day join the EU.
The three Baltic states, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden and the UK, while recognising that Ukrainian accession was not an immediate possibility, all sympathised with its aspirations.
France, which currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency, appreciated the need to send positive signals to Kiev, but was unwilling to make a strong commitment to Ukraine without a shift in the German and Dutch positions, diplomats said.
Ukraine did its cause little good last week when the ruling coalition split in acrimony, enhancing the nation’s reputation for political instability.
For now, Ukraine will have to make do with an “association agreement” with the EU, a pact that for Balkan countries such as Albania, Macedonia and Serbia represents the first step on the path to membership, but for Ukraine carries no such implications.
The association agreement is expected to be ready in about a year, and President Viktor Yushchenko said on Tuesday that he looked forward to signing it. “We’ve made remarkable progress over the past 12 months,” he said, making it clear he had not abandoned hope Ukraine could eventually join the EU. But some Ukrainian officials said their government might be wary of signing the association accord, lest this be interpreted in certain EU capitals as Kiev’s formal acceptance of a status falling permanently short of membership.
EU officials put a positive gloss on Tuesday’s summit, stressing the communiqué did not explicitly exclude EU accession. But Ukraine fears pressure for stronger action in support of Kiev’s aspirations may fade if the crisis in Georgia calms down.
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Moscow facing lending crisis
By Catherine Belton in Moscow
Published: September 9 2008 20:56 | Last updated: September 9 2008 20:56
An exodus of foreign capital is forcing Russian banks to slash lending as the international reaction to the country’s military standoff with Georgia starts to affect the real economy.
Bankers say Russia is facing its worst crisis since the August 1998 default. The Russian stock market has plummeted more than 40 per cent since May. A flight of capital estimated by analysts at up to $20bn (€14bn, £11bn) since the start of the conflict is drying up liquidity. The Russian Trading System index fell another 7.5 per cent on Tuesday to its lowest level since June 2006.
Bankers and analysts said real estate and retail businesses were being hardest hit by a slowdown in lending. “There are real estate developers who can’t finish projects. They can’t get money from anyone, state banks included,” said one senior banker in Moscow speaking on condition of anonymity.
“No one was ready for the lack of cash to manifest itself so quickly,” he said.
“Nobody has any money. The country has got all this cash but the banking system and capital markets are not particularly good at allocating it. There is a flood of liquidity in the state’s fields and a drought in the private sector.”
Russia’s central bank says analysts’ estimates of capital flight are exaggerated and only $5bn left the country in August. But foreign investors have shunned the Russian rouble and stock market. The conflict with Georgia was the final straw in a summer punctuated by ill omens such as Vladimir Putin’s attack on Russian steelmaker Mechel that reminded them of the political risks of investing in Russia.
Domestic borrowing costs for Russian companies have soared because of greater refinancing risks.
Exacerbating Russia’s market fall is the fact that many of the country’s leading tycoons raised funds for expansion by pledging shares in some of the nation’s biggest companies. Now they are facing margin calls from the banks that lent money against the shares, bankers and traders say. That is making the market sell-off worse as businesses fail to find alternative sources of funds.
“All the oligarchs that are over-leveraged are being forced to sell off,” said Sergei Sidorov, head of capital markets at Unicredit in Moscow.
Hans-Jörg Rudloff, chairman of Barclays Capital, said the military standoff between Russia and Georgia had exacerbated fraught nerves in the global investment community and the steep decline in Russian stock prices could have a big impact on the ability of Russian private companies to fund further growth.
Calling on the west not to shun Russia, he said: “Geopolitical tensions always interfere with economic planning and could derail growth patterns around the world.”
Pyotr Aven, president of one of Russia’s biggest private banks, Alfa Bank, told a Reuters investment summit on Tuesday that the economy was showing “dangerous” signs of slowing amid accelerating inflation and a slowdown in real income growth.
Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Uralsib investment bank in Moscow, said investors were spooked by Russia’s slowing economy, question marks over Russian companies’ earnings potential after Mr Putin’s broadside at Mechel, increasing economic dependence on oil, and potential damage to Russia’s ability to attract foreign investment.
The Russian government has until now helped shore up liquidity despite the global credit squeeze by placing up to $12.75bn development funds in short-term deposits in the banking system and holding regular cash auctions.
In a sign of the growing squeeze however, Russian banks submitted bids for $3.5bn at a cash auction on Monday, while the Finance Ministry made only $2.4bn available.
Cash held by banks on deposits at the central bank has been falling day by day, reaching a low of 638.4bn roubles ($25bn, €18bn, £14bn) on Tuesday from 675.6bn the day before.
Even state banks such as Sberbank, the country’s state-controlled retail bank, could face difficulties raising capital abroad in the wake of the Georgian conflict, bankers and analysts said. Sberbank is currently seeking a $1bn-plus syndicated loan on international markets.
Alexei Kudrin, the Russian finance minister, attempted on Tuesday to limit the damage. Speaking at a Reuters investment forum, he said the conflict with Georgia had reduced Russia’s political risk by eliminating the potential for further military escalation, while the recent resolution of the dispute over the Anglo-Russian energy venture TNK-BP was a sign that Russia was trying to improve its investment climate.
But bankers are unconvinced. One banker, however, said: “Investors are . . . likely to ignore Russia. Companies are not going to be able to issue on international markets.”
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Gazprom under threat after regulator fine
By Catherine Belton in Moscow
Published: September 9 2008 19:10 | Last updated: September 9 2008 20:30
Gazprom’s hold on Russia’s gas industry appeared to be weakening on Tuesday after a Russian regulator said the state-controlled gas export monopoly would be fined for restricting access for an independent gas producer to its vast pipeline network.
Gazprom’s shares fell 7.9 per cent to their lowest level since they started trading on Russia’s Micex stock exchange in January 2006. Investors appeared worried that the fine – which could be anywhere between $6m and $250m – could be only the first in a series of broadsides against the gas giant. The sell-off, part of a broader slump in the Russian market, was also triggered by falling oil prices.
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Italy upsets US over Georgia
By Guy Dinmore in Rome
Published: September 9 2008 19:25 | Last updated: September 9 2008 19:25
Once a favoured ally rewarded for his support of the US invasion of Iraq, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s centre-right prime minister, has evolved into a serious irritant for the Bush administration in handling Russia’s invasion of Georgia.
Strains in the transatlantic relationship were on display in Rome on Tuesday as Dick Cheney, the US vice-president, and Mr Berlusconi read out statements.
Mr Cheney strongly condemned Russia’s “unilateral efforts to alter by force of arms Georgia’s internationally recognised boundaries”, and reiterated that Nato had agreed on eventual membership for Georgia and Ukraine.
The US delegation, in Italy for five days, had pushed for clear endorsement from Mr Berlusconi. Instead, he did not utter a word of criticism against Russia. The Italian premier said he had tried to explain to Mr Cheney his personal success in helping to defuse “what happened in Ossetia and then in Georgia”. He stressed the importance of sustaining the Nato-Russia council, the joint forum he inaugurated in 2002 with President George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin, then Russia’s president.
According to European diplomats, Bush administration hawks view with suspicion Mr Berlusconi’s close personal ties to the Russian leader and worry about Italy’s presidency of the G8 from January . Italy has already made clear it intends to invite Mr Putin to the summit in Sardinia.
An attempt by Italy to call a routine meeting of the Nato-Russia council after the invasion of Georgia was blocked by the US.
Concerns grew in Washington that Italy was undermining unity when Franco Frattini, Italy’s foreign minister, went to Moscow last Thursday – on the same day that Mr Cheney was in Georgia and Ukraine, and ahead of Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president leading EU peace efforts and now among Washington’s favourites.
US hawks are alarmed by Italy’s tight energy relationship with Russia, particularly the “strategic partnership” reached between Moscow’s Gazprom and Italy’s part state-owned Eni in 2006, and the South Stream pipeline planned to take Russian gas across the Black Sea.
“Italy is Russia’s Trojan horse in Europe,” said a diplomat from a former Soviet satellite state of the west’s reliance on Russian gas. Italian officials deny Mr Berlusconi has turned his back on the Bush administration.
One Italian statement that did win Mr Cheney’s approval was Mr Frattini’s assertion that Europe needed an energy strategy and should be united when negotiating with Russia, Libya and Algeria.
Privately, Italian officials argue that the US should be the last country to lecture Europe on the dangers of energy dependency, and that Mr Bush and Mr Cheney will soon move on, but Mr Putin and Russia’s gas will not.
● Competing pipeline projects that would connect Europe with new sources of gas in the Caucasus and central Asia have provided the Cheney delegation with maps showing a crazy paving of dotted lines.
Umberto Quadrino, chief executive of Edison, Italy’s second-largest energy group, is lobbying the Bush administration to put its full weight first behind Edison’s ITGI Corridor project and, later, the more ambitious but still somewhat hypothetical Nabucco pipeline. Both would bypass Russia but transit Georgia.
ITGI would take 8bn cubic metres of gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field in the Caspian all the way to Italy. Azeri gas is already reaching Georgia and Turkey and can be extended to Greece. The only “missing link” is an undersea pipeline across to Italy to be built by Edison and Greece’s Depa.
“We are ready to do it,” Mr Quadrino told the Financial Times after the Ambrosetti conference in northern Italy where he lobbied the Cheney delegation.
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Saudis mop up surplus capital
By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi
Published: September 9 2008 19:55 | Last updated: September 9 2008 19:55
Western central banks may be pumping billions into the money markets to shore up liquidity and prevent the failure of financial institutions, but Saudi Arabia is desperately mopping up any surplus capital in its own economy.
The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, the central bank, had issued $19.7bn (€13.8bn, £11.1bn) of treasury bills by the end of July – three times as much debt as for all of 2007 according to the National Commercial Bank – to drive up effective borrowing costs.
Saudi Arabia, like most Gulf states, has hitched its monetary policy to the US Federal Reserve, obliging it to follow the Fed’s rate cuts to 2 per cent.
However, the monetary policy appropriate for the faltering US economy is far from ideal in the Gulf, which has other concerns. Inflation and credit growth are soaring, but “we have monetary policies as if we were in a recession”, says the head of treasury at a top Gulf bank.
Saudi Arabia is trying indirectly to tighten monetary policy by extracting excess liquidity in the economy.
The authorities have also raised reserve requirements four times this year to curb lending, according to NCB.
Earlier this year, funding costs in the interbank market were subdued by international capital inflows.
Local currencies had slumped due to their peg to the dollar, and ambiguous comments from some central bankers around the turn of the year led international banks and hedge funds to bet on currency revaluations to help curb inflation.
This helped to subdue borrowing costs for regional financial institutions, but also led local banks to ignore the need to build deposits to match hyperactive lending.
The dollar’s rally this summer also increased the value of Gulf currencies such as Saudi’s riyal, cutting the cost of imports and easing pressure on authorities to revalue their dollar pegs.
International banks therefore started to reverse speculative revaluation bets, withdrawing local currency deposits and draining away capital that had helped keep spreads between the money market and benchmark rates low.
Subsequently, Gulf banks have had to turn to local money markets to finance lending, causing interbank rates to climb far above the central banks’ benchmark interest rates.
Rather than try to ease the liquidity squeeze, authorities have welcomed more expensive funding costs in the fight against inflation, even abetting it in the case of Saudi Arabia.
Coupled with the difficulties in international debt markets, some bankers have started wondering whether the Gulf’s ambitious spending plans can be maintained.
According to Meed Projects, a regional data provider, there are $2,400bn of planned and ongoing public and private sector projects in the six member Gulf Co-operation Council area, a loose free trade area.
Money may be becoming scarcer, but it is only affecting marginal projects, according to Jonathan Robinson, head of project finance at HSBC Saudi Arabia.
Of the $2,400bn projects planned or under way, some are “pie-in-the-sky, regardless of the liquidity situation”, he says.
Many experts question whether squeezing liquidity is enough to curb investments and damp economic growth enough to bring down inflation.
Funding costs are still low and due to inflation, real interest rates are negative, which should stimulate investment, not deter it, argues Marios Maratheftis, head of research at Standard Chartered bank in Dubai.
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Wed, Sep 10, 2008, 06:52 GMT
Investors give Iran funds cold shoulder
Financial Times
Tuesday, Sep 09, 2008
The head of an Iranian equities fund is abandoning attempts to set up operations in the Gulf, blaming the political tensions surrounding Tehran's nuclear programme.
The decision comes after Dubai officials blocked the company from receiving a financial services licence and Arab investors shunned investment opportunities.
The latest wave of Gulf petrodollars is seeking opportunities across the Middle East, as well as in international trophy assets, but there is reluctance to invest in the oil-rich Gulf's largest country, Iran, because of historical tensions, concerns about its nuclear programme and the hawkish stance of the US.
The First Persia Equity Fund had sought to gain a financial services licence last year at the Dubai International Financial Centre. But Stephen Austen, managing director of the fund, an affiliate of the Iranian Bank Melli's equity investment company, said he was told by both the DIFC authority and its regulator, the Dubai Financial Services Authority, that Iranian companies were not welcome. He plans to set up a permanent base in Europe by the end of the year.
Since his efforts to set up a regulated entity in Dubai in June 2007, Bank Melli has been placed on an European Union list of sanctioned entities, and the US has imposed unilateral sanctions on it and three of Iran's other commercial banks.
The DIFC said it followed United Nations guidance regarding Iranian financial institutions, while the DFSA said it had no specific policy on Iran. Bank Melli's international arm received a DIFC licence in November 2005 that allows it to carry out non-regulated activities.
Mr Austen, who closed his second round of fundraising at the end of August, said he had doubled the funds invested in the Tehran Stock Exchange to €70m ($100m, £56m), almost entirely from European institutions. Iran's bourse is up 30 per cent this year.
His efforts to raise capital in the oil-rich Gulf, however, have proved fruitless. On several occasions investors pulled out at the last minute, citing pressure their investment could generate.
"Arab investors have been placed under intense pressure by the Bush government to join its crusade against Iran," said Mr Austen. "If a less confrontational regime emerges in America, they will certainly want to take advantage of the Iranian privatisation programme."
Mr Austen's bid to open operations in Dubai's competing financial centre of Bahrain was similarly rebuffed, though he says he got a much more positive welcome from Qatar.
Savola Group, the Saudi food giant, is building an oils and distribution facility in Iran, while some Dubai-based family groups, such as Aqili and Ghurair, have also invested in its food and consumer businesses.
Nasser Hashempour of the Iranian Dubai Business Council says direct investments into Iran are increasing, but many observers still believe the magnitude of the money flows crossing the Gulf is dwarfed by cash flows from Iran to the Gulf.
By Simeon Kerr in Dubai
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Iran family law bill stirs controversy
By Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran
Published: September 9 2008 16:22 | Last updated: September 9 2008 16:22
Iran’s parliament approved the outlines of a marriage bill on Tuesday after taking out a controversial pro-polygamy amendment that had been endorsed by President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad’s government.
The “family support bill”, which will be the first comprehensive law to cover different marriage- and divorced-related issues, was drafted by Iran’s judiciary. But the government had made some changes, including effectively encouraging polygamy by removing curbs on the practice provided that the man had the financial means to support a new wife.
Although polygamy is permitted under certain conditions, including when the first wife gives her permission or has an acute illness, it is rare outside tribal and rural areas.
Opposition to the government’s changes had mobilised a variety of political forces, from religious fundamentalists to secular feminists, as well as the conservative clergy. As a result, parliament deleted the controversial clauses before approving the bill.
Parliament will now move to studying details of the bill and it may take several months before it is finally approved.
Analysts believe the debate was partly motivated by a fight for women’s votes and that government opponents seized on the bill as an opportunity to turn women against Mr Ahmadi-Nejad ahead of next June’s presidential election.
Ali Shahrokhi, head of parliament’s judicial committee, denied any political motivation, saying his committee had decided to remove the amendments to ease the concerns created for families, in particular for women.
The outlines approved yesterday do not represent a fundamental shift from the current laws, which are based on Iran’s civil code dating back to 1928 - itself based on the Sharia, or Islamic law. Since the 1979 Islamic revolution, clerics have stuck largely to this law, making only minor changes to improve women’s rights on marriage and divorce.
Mr Shahrokhi said the family bill was in conformity with the “framework of society” in which most women remain housewives with no source of income and tend not to pursue their right to divorce.
Maryam Behrouzi, a fundamentalist at Zeinab Society, an NGO, agreed that the bill did not reflect new realities in Iran where women have for several years constituted over 60 per cent of university graduates.
The bill, however, offers certain improvements for women, such as establishing family courts in which decisions will be taken by three judges, one of them female.
The reforms are far from meeting the demands of secular feminists, whose activities have been suppressed in recent years and some of whom have been imprisoned.
Shahla Forouzanfar, a social activist, said women’s rights on divorce and child custody were still being ignored and denounced temporary marriage, which is mentioned in the bill, as “legal prostitution” that leaves thousands of children without any legal identity.
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IFC seeks to reward reform
By Norma Cohen
Published: September 10 2008 01:59 | Last updated: September 10 2008 01:59
The International Finance Corporation plans to seek authority from its board to invest several hundred million dollars in emerging economies that have made the greatest business reforms, according to the organisation’s chief economist.
Michael Klein made his remarks as the IFC and World Bank released their annual Doing Business 2009 report, which ranks countries according to the ease with which domestic entrepreneurs can start and run businesses that increase economic activity.
Azerbaijan topped the rankings as the country undertaking the most business reforms in 2007-08. It created a one-stop shop for new business registrations in January, leading to a 40 per cent surge in these in the first six months of the year. It also made labour markets more flexible and cut the number of steps necessary to transfer property.
The report looks at reforms that aim to simplify business regulations, strengthen property rights, open access to credit, and enforce contracts – all measures that help aid the creation of enterprises that provide employment and economic growth.
The overall ranking for the ease of doing business was topped by Singapore and New Zealand. While most of the world’s largest economies rank highly – the US, UK and Germany are third, sixth and 25th on the list – some emerging economies also do well.
Thailand ranks 13th, Georgia 15th and Estonia 22nd.
For this ranking, the report looks at efforts to create business-friendly environments by examining measures such as the level of investor protection, dealing with construction permits and employing workers.
Mr Klein said the report was first launched in 2004 because the IFC and the World Bank believed data on micro-economic developments, such as the speed of new business formation and jobs growth, were sparse. Some factors cannot be quantified, such as the overall level of political risk.
He said the report did not look at what he termed “the commanding heights” issues such as whether foreign investors should be allowed access to national mineral rights.
But it did try to look at countries’ efforts to make it easy to set up and do business. “The evidence is accumulating that reform efforts translate into business opportunity.”
The IFC is the arm of the World Bank that both invests directly in private sector projects in emerging markets and encourages direct investment by others.
It has found that an investment in emerging markets weighted by the size of the economy and the pace and scale of its business reforms would have outperformed a basic emerging markets index by 30 per cent on a risk-adjusted basis.
It is for that reason the IFC would like to create a new fund.
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Equities suffer as Lehman falls 45%
By Francesco Guerrera in London and Michael Mackenzie and,Greg Farrell in New York
Published: September 10 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 10 2008 03:00
US stocks suffered their worst fall of the year as a 45 per cent drop in Lehman Brothers shares renewed fears about the health of the global financial system.
The S&P 500 fell 3.4 per cent, reversing the 2.1 per cent gain on Monday that greeted the US government's takeover of mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over the weekend.
US Treasuries rallied as investors sought the safety of government debt, reckoning that the weakening US housing market would slow economic growth.
Crude oil futures in New York fell $3.96 to $102.38 a barrel as investors bet that economic sluggishness would reduce the demand for energy.
Lehman said late yesterday that it would unveil "key strategic initiatives for the firm" today when it announces its third-quarter earnings. It originally had scheduled the earnings report for September 18, but moved it forward to calm investors.
Lehman led the market lower on worries it would be unable to raise capital to bolster its balance sheet before reporting third-quarter earnings. Its shares fell $6.36 to $7.79, giving it a market value of $5.4bn - a fraction of its book value.
Standard & Poor's warned it might downgrade Lehman's single-A credit rating, saying it was reviewing the bank's rating because of "heightened uncertainty about Lehman's ability to raise additional capital, based on the precipitous decline in its share price in recent days".
Lehman is expected to have suffered billions of dollars in credit-related writedowns in the third quarter. For months, it has been looking at ways to raise capital.
The options have included selling a stake to an investor, selling all or part of its well-regarded asset management unit and spinning off its commercial real estate assets into a "bad bank" structure that could be partly funded by outside investors.
Lehman's shares fell after a newswire report cited an unnamed Korean government official as saying that Korea Development Bank, a state-run lender, had decided not to invest in Lehman.
Korea's financial watchdog later denied the report, but bankers close to the situation said Lehman was unlikely to clinch a deal to sell a large stake to KDB before reporting third-quarter results. The two sides have been at loggerheads over the price to be paid for the stake, with KDB balking at the valuation demanded by Dick Fuld, Lehman's chief executive, according to people close to the talks.
Lehman declined to comment, but people close to the situation said that even if the KDB deal did not materialise, the bank had other options to raise capital.
Among other financial stocks, Washington Mutual fell 19.9 per cent, AIG 19.3 per cent and Wachovia 14.5 per cent.
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Britain needs a Chinese lesson
By Martin Sorrell
Published: September 9 2008 19:15 | Last updated: September 9 2008 19:15
If there were ever doubts about China’s ascendance, they evaporated at eight minutes past eight on August 8. The confidence, originality and scale of the opening Olympic ceremony all said: “We’re here. Get used to it.”
Indeed we must. But should Britain, feeling the autumnal chill of possible recession, resign itself to a slow decline as power shifts back to the east? I do not think so. Yet significant change is needed to retain our place in the premier league of global economic powers.
We must accept that in today’s world, advanced communications mean that companies are no longer bound by national boundaries. For some, there will always be political and public relations reasons to stay in London. Others, such as Regus, Charter and Henderson, feel fewer patriotic restraints and shift to countries with more favourable tax policies. More will do so.
WPP itself is reviewing its position in the face of proposed changes to the controlled foreign companies regime, which would give HM Revenue & Customs greater power to tax earnings abroad. The Treasury is playing a shrewd game, hinting it is going to revise its plans, but changing little. It should rethink the proposals. Plenty of countries have skilled workforces and cultured capitals, as welcoming as the UK. Take the Irish Republic, with a very welcoming 12.5 per cent corporation tax against 28 per cent in Britain. That comparatively high UK rate is a turn-off to business wishing to set up shop in Britain and to those already here – as is our grindingly slow implementation of new infrastructure.
As if to remind us of its ambitions, China has announced a new target for 2012. The date is surely no coincidence. Trains on its high-speed line from Beijing to Shanghai will run at 236 miles an hour – outstripping the current generation of bullet trains by 18 miles an hour. By contrast, Heathrow’s operators have admitted that only part of the new Heathrow East terminal will be ready for the London Olympics that same year. This after the embarrassment of the Terminal Five fiasco and continued delays in approving Heathrow’s third runway. That runway is needed now, yet planning and government inaction will probably delay its construction to 2020. China is painted as a country burdened by unmoving bureaucracy, yet it gets things done – and on time. Beijing airport’s Terminal Three took four years to complete, against 20 for Heathrow’s Terminal Five, and is larger than Heathrow’s five terminals put together.
The policy treacle that slows big infrastructure projects in Britain clogs other aspects of life essential to doing business here. Housing is overpriced because the planning process blocks new developments. Equally, ways have to be found to allow universal fibre-optic wiring, a technology as umbilical to modern business as the railway network was to the Victorians.
People think of red tape as a business issue, but it also demoralises our National Health Service – so much so that senior consultants find professorships in US institutions too attractive to refuse. There are now more managers, administrators and support staff in the NHS than there are hospital beds.
British television deregulation, too, moves at a glacial pace. Take the review of public service broadcasting by the regulator Ofcom. Among a range of issues, it looks at ITV’s public service broadcasting obligations, which the network wants to relax. I have sympathy for ITV’s need to reduce the amount of regional news, within sensible constraints, and redefine the requirement to spend half its production budget outside London. It is critical that the brand leader be allowed to compete in a digital world.
Media, creative services and especially financial services are important to Britain’s future, but they are not the whole story. China has the low labour costs required for mass manufacturing, but middle-sized, specialised engineering companies in Germany, northern Italy, Japan and South Korea are displaying expansionist zeal because pricing has moved in their favour.
There are similar opportunities in Britain for specialised manufacturing, but we need the right skills. A survey by the CBI employers’ group showed a quarter of employers were unhappy with graduates’ basic literacy and 16 per cent were dissatisfied with their numeracy. That means educational competition, the pursuit of higher academic standards and, yes, elitism. Oxford, Cambridge and other top universities are supposed to be elitist. Elitism is essential to maintaining our global reputation in education in the face of competition from the US.
The other great factor that attracts and retains business in Britain is liveability – security, atmosphere and quality of life. London’s diversity and street life are attractive to any creative business but its ruinous housing costs, high crime levels and creaking public transport are not.
Britain’s image abroad is crucial to attracting foreign investment, so such perceptions are important. This year Y&R, a WPP agency, found that Britain was seen by the rest of the world as trusted, open and tolerant, but perceptions tended towards the stereotypical: traditional, prestigious, arrogant, restrained, perhaps even stuffy. There is therefore room to improve how Britain projects itself.
Fortunately, the study also showed that Britain has a reputation for innovation and there are good reasons for that, as the Olympic ceremonies demonstrate. One of the chief designers was a Briton: Mark Fisher. But he worked on China’s show – not the feeble eight-minute “hand-over” provided by Britain. Proof that British creativity and know-how are prized around the world, if not always here.
Sir Martin is chief executive of WPP
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Lights out again for London traders
Published: September 9 2008 19:45 | Last updated: September 9 2008 19:45
This week’s outage at the London Stock Exchange was highly embarrassing. On what should have been the busiest day of the year, traders were left to do nothing – or to execute trades through one of LSE’s emerging competitors. But start-up trading platforms failed to pick up the slack: the market lacked a reference price, normally provided by the LSE. For the time being, reliance on the Stock Exchange secures its lead. It should not bank on this continuing forever.
Thanks to a directive by the European Union, the established European stock exchanges are facing increasing competition from newly set up trading platforms. Two have already launched pan-European operations, and three more will follow this year. With only a few employees, low costs put the entrants at an advantage over exchanges such as the LSE, and their trading systems typically offer faster execution.
The LSE cut its fees this month and will reduce the time it takes to trade. But the outage has reminded traders that reliability trumps price and speed. The Stock Exchange will have to work hard to convince customers that this second outage within a year will not be repeated. A back-up system might be a start to rebuild trust.
The new entrants will face equal scrutiny, however. Only the test of time will show whether they can compete on reliability as well as on price and speed. The LSE’s glitch lowered the bar, but has also raised awareness of the issue. Systems of such complexity are prone to crashes.
The failure of the start-ups to win business during the LSE’s shutdown suggests that traders are also not yet willing to put full trust in the entrants’ pricing. A chicken-and-egg problem: with not enough volume, prices on each alternative trading platform are unreliable, and they struggle to attract more business and achieve higher volume.
But the LSE’s outage has demonstrated the recklessness of relying on one provider. It is therefore likely that traders will diversify and shift business to other trading platforms while continuing to use the LSE’s price for reference. As the start-ups’ volumes grow, their pricing should become more reliable and the need for a particular reference price may fade.
The LSE is not going to disappear as a trading platform. But the outage could not have come at a worse time and should boost competition. While it exposed weaknesses in the Stock Exchange and its new competitors alike, it is likely to strengthen the start-ups long term – as long as they prove reliable.
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12:05 GMT, Tuesday, 9 September 2008 13:05 UK
Software blamed for LSE failure
London Stock Exchange sign
The London Stock Exchange (LSE) says a computer software glitch was the reason trading was paralysed on Monday.
Traders could not connect to the LSE's system for nearly seven hours, wiping out most of the day's trading.
Business resumed this morning and without incident, but the exchange missed out on what could have been one of its busiest days of the year.
It comes at a time when the LSE is facing increasing competition from new rival exchanges.
A spokeswoman for the LSE said the problem had now been fixed.
She denied that the problem had been related to the high volume of trading first thing in the morning.
Strong trading had been predicted for London and other European markets on Monday after the US government stepped in to rescue troubled mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over the weekend.
New rivals
Since new European Union rules came in last year, the LSE no longer has a monopoly on share trading and new rivals have sprung up.
One of their competitors, Chi-X, said the incident highlighted that the system needed a "root and branch change", with trading prices taken from a variety of sources.
Its chief executive Peter Randall said: "We've newer software and more modern technology and offer real time market data for free."
Another rival, Turquoise couldn't have hoped for a better publicity coup for its service in the first week of its operation.
"This emphasises the real need and opening for alternative platforms," a spokesman for Turquoise said.
He added that Turquoise had put a great deal of time, effort and investment into the resilience of its computer systems.
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Russia proposes closer ties with OPEC
AFP
By Adam Plowright AFP - Wednesday, September 10 04:39 am
VIENNA (AFP) - Russian Vice Premier Igor Sechin reached out to OPEC late Tuesday, calling for greater cooperation between the cartel and his country in a move linked by some analysts to the Georgia-Russia conflict.
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Sechin, who is chairman of Russia's biggest Russian oil group Rosneft, said a "draft memorandum of understanding" had been submitted to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries on closer cooperation between Russia and the group.
"Cooperation with OPEC is one of the priorities of Russia," he said, according to a statement read out at the opening of a meeting of OPEC's 13 members here.
He underscored that OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia and Russia were the largest oil producers in the world -- they are number one and two measured by output -- and referred to the "ambitious potential" of cooperation with the cartel.
The timing of the visit to OPEC by such a senior Russian official is likely to raise eyebrows in consumer nations as relations between Moscow and the West deteriorate in the aftermath of the Russia-Georgia conflict in August.
Any closer cooperation would vastly increase the market power of OPEC, which already pumps 40 percent of world oil, and would cause worries about the collective influence of the world's dominant oil producers.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown warned at the end of August that the West would not be held to ransom by hydrocarbon-rich Russia and urged Europe to find alternative sources of power to avoid "an energy stranglehold."
Independent analyst John Hall, who runs an energy consultancy in London, said the move by Russia could be seen as part of a strategy by Moscow to find political allies after its military action in Georgia.
"Russia is under pressure at from the US and European Union and is looking for allies around the world and it would strengthen its position to have an alignment with OPEC," he told AFP.
Russia already has close ties with OPEC members Iran and Venezuela, who are also at odds with the United States. It has also lent support to the idea of a "gas OPEC", causing alarm in the European Union.
David Kirsch, head of the market intelligence service at US-based energy consultancy PFC Energy, said Sechin's appearance was highly significant.
"Sending Sechin here sends a strong signal about cooperation between OPEC and Russia," he said. "The statement is clear that Russia has its legitimate interests and will pursue them in energy markets."
Sechin said part of the cooperation with OPEC would include providing for a "stable pricing environment" for producers and consumers.
An unnamed Russian official quoted by Dow Jones Newswires said the memorandum of understanding would be "a broad framework" for contacts between OPEC and Russia, "reviving" an agreement that existed until 2005.
He said it could take two months to sign, suggesting it could be finalised in October when OPEC representatives come to an international oil conference in Russia.
The official said the proposal came because of "a new team" at the Kremlin, citing the arrival of Sechin as vice premier.
Russia's relations with the West have hit their lowest point since the end of the Cold War, with both sides looking for leverage to influence over each other.
Stephen Shork from The Shork Report, an oil market analysis publication, said Russia's proposal would be looked at "with a great deal of consideration" and said it had to been seen in the context of the Georgia-Russia conflict.
Russia's resurgence under former president Vladimir Putin has been based in large part on the rise in the price of oil, gas and other commodities. Its energy resources are a vital element of its new geopolitical power.
On August 8, Russian tanks and troops surged into Georgia -- a strategic corridor for Caspian Sea oil and gas exports -- to rebuff an offensive by Georgia to regain control of its province of South Ossetia.
A shake-up under new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev moved Rosneft chairman Sechin from a Kremlin administration post to deputy prime minister in charge of energy and industry.
Sechin is seen as the key figure in Rosneft's controversial acquisition of the bulk of dismantled oil company Yukos, whose founder, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was imprisoned on fraud charges under then president Vladimir Putin.
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Norway oil fund exits Rio Tinto on ethical grounds
Reuters
By John Acher Reuters - Tuesday, September 9 11:34 am
OSLO (Reuters) - Norway on Tuesday excluded iron ore miner Rio Tinto from its $375 billion (212.5 billion pounds) sovereign wealth fund due to environmental concerns over its activities, as part of its drive for ethical investment.
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Norway's Government Pension Fund -- Global, familiarly known as the "oil fund", invests under ethical guidelines set by the government. In the past it has excluded companies producing nuclear arms or cluster munitions and groups deemed to have caused environmental damage or abused human or workers' rights.
Finance Minister Kristin Halvorsen said the problems with Rio Tinto, the world's second-largest iron ore miner, concerned a joint venture with Freeport McMoRan , a company excluded by the fund in 2006, at a mining operation in Indonesia.
"We do not want to contribute to serious environmental damage," she told a news conference.
"There are no indications to the effect that the company's practices will be changed in future, or that measures will be taken to significantly reduce damage to nature and the environment," the finance ministry said in a statement.
"Our immediate response is one of surprise and disappointment," said Rio Tinto spokesman Nick Cobban in London.
"We have an exemplary record in environmental matters, world leading in fact, and they are given the very highest priority in everything we do."
At the end of 2007, the oil fund held shares worth 4.42 billion crowns (443 million pounds) in Rio Tinto and 430 million in Rio Tinto Ltd, all of which have now been sold.
"The divestment of securities has been completed," the ministry said.
The finance ministry also said it had considered but rejected a recommendation from the fund's Council of Ethics to exclude biotech seed maker Monsanto .
The government chose to keep its Monsanto shares and had worked within the company to bring about a "significant reduction in the use of child labour" in cotton seed production in India.
"The ministry of finance has therefore decided not to exclude Monsanto Co from the portfolio," it said.
Halvorsen said the magnitude of the reduction in child labour was uncertain, but estimates put it at 90 percent in one Indian state and 70 percent in another.
"The Norwegian people's savings are making a difference for children," she said.
No one at Monsanto was immediately available for comment.
The Government Pension Fund -- Global invests most of Norway's oil and gas revenues in foreign stocks and bonds to save for the future when the hydrocarbons run out.
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7月の経常黒字、17.3％減 原油高で貿易黒字が大幅縮小
財務省が10日発表した7月の国際収支速報によると、モノやサービス、投資などを含めた海外との総合的な取引状況を示す経常収支は1兆5318億円の黒字となった。前年同月を17.3％下回り、5カ月連続で黒字幅が縮小した。投資による収益は拡大したものの、原油高で輸入額が増え、貿易黒字額が大幅に縮小したことが響いた。
貿易・サービス収支は292億円の黒字となり、前年同月比93.5％減と6月に引き続き大幅に減少した。原粗油価格が上昇したことで、差し引き項目である輸入額が18.9％増の7兆597億円と過去最高額を2カ月連続で更新したことが響いた。輸出額は欧州やアジア向け自動車が好調で8.7％増えたが、輸出額から輸入額を差し引いた貿易収支は前年同月に比べ69.8％減の2322億円の黒字と大きく落ち込んだ。サービス収支は海外貨物運賃の受取額が増えたことなどから、赤字幅は前年同月に比べ縮小した。(14:54)
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8月企業物価、7.2％上昇 原油高、川下へ転嫁進む
日銀が10日発表した8月の国内企業物価指数（2005年＝100、速報値）は112.1となり、前年同月に比べて7.2％上昇した。7月（7.3％）より伸び率は鈍ったが、第2次石油ショックの影響が色濃く残る1981年初め並みの高水準だ。原油などの市況は足元では調整色を強めているが、最終製品への価格転嫁までは時間がかかるため、物価上昇圧力がすぐに和らぐかは不透明だ。
国内企業物価指数は製品の出荷や卸売り段階で企業同士がやりとりする製品などの価格水準を示す。消費者物価指数などと並び物価を測る指標の1つ。
7月の上昇率が速報値の7.1％から確定値で7.3％に改定されたことで、8月は昨年9月以来、11カ月ぶりに前月と比べ伸び率を縮めた。前年同月比プラスは54カ月連続。(12:12)
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米シティ、円建て外債3150億円 個人向け最大規模
米シティグループは30日、国内の個人投資家向けに3150億円の円建て外債（サムライ債）を発行する。1つの社債で国内の個人投資家向けに募集する額としては過去最大規模になる。金融市場の混乱が続く欧米市場よりも、日本で債券を発行したほうが比較的有利な条件で資金を調達できると判断した。
サムライ債の年限は3年で、利回りは年3.22％。購入単位は100万円で、10日から29日まで募集する。日興コーディアル証券や東海東京証券などで販売する。(10:07)
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教育機関への公的支出、日本が主要国最低 ＧＤＰ比
【パリ＝野見山祐史】経済規模で比較した日本の教育機関への公的支出が主要国の中で最も低いことが経済協力開発機構（ＯＥＣＤ）が9日発表した報告で明らかになった。特に大学など高等教育機関での公的支出の比率が低くなっている。また男女別の大学進学率では、日本は男性（52％）が女性（38％）を大きく上回っている特徴が現れた。
調査はＯＥＣＤ加盟国を中心に教育関連のデータを比べた。各国の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）に対する教育機関への公的支出（2005年時点）の比率で日本は 3.4％。集計した28カ国の平均（5.0％）を下回り最低だった。比率が高いのはスウェーデン、フランスなどの欧州諸国。
日本の公的支出のＧＤＰ比を教育機関別にみると、小中高校が2.6％（平均は3.5％）、高等教育機関が0.5％（同1.1％）で、大学での比率の低さが目立つ。高等教育での総費用から、公的負担と奨学金など一部の私費負担を除いた純粋な家計の負担割合をみると、日本は53％と突出して高い。(03: 23)
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消費税引き上げ、2010年度10％に 経団連が要望案
日本経団連が今月末に発足する自民党の新しい政権に要望する税制改正の柱が明らかになった。消費税は2010年度に現在の5％から10％に引き上げ、社会保障制度や少子化対策などの財源に充てることを求める。消費税の引き上げと同時に所得税を減税する一体的な措置で消費者の負担を和らげることも盛りこむ。
経団連は自民党総裁選の終了後、新しい政権に対して税財政・社会保障の一体的な改革を要望する考えだ。最大の焦点となる消費税については一気に5％の引き上げを求め、時期は10年度と明示。遅くても11年度までに引き上げ、社会保障関連の財源にするほか、国と地方の基礎的財政収支（プライマリーバランス）の黒字化を確実に実現するよう訴える。(07:01)
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社保庁、年金記録目的外閲覧で懲戒の59人が健保協会へ移籍
社会保険庁は9日、10月1日に発足する全国健康保険協会に社保庁から移籍する過去の懲戒処分者71人のうち、59人が年金記録の業務目的外の閲覧をしていたことを明らかにした。民主党の厚生労働・総務合同部門会議に資料を提出した。
処分別にみると、年金記録の業務目的外の閲覧のほか、国民年金の不適正処理による処分が8人などとなっている。(07:01)
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自動車部品製造販売のトラストが再生法申請
自動車部品製造販売のトラスト（千葉県芝山町、大川光一・早川正満社長）は10日、東京地裁に民事再生法の適用を申請し、同日付で保全命令を受けた。負債総額は約65億円。同社は1977年に設立。「トラスト」のブランドで自動車のマフラーを製造していた。近年は若者の自動車離れなどの影響で売り上げが落ち込んでいた。(14:46)
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ビックカメラ、郵政と提携 店舗に宅配や郵便窓口
家電量販店5位のビックカメラは日本郵政グループと提携し、10月から店舗で宅配便「ゆうパック」の扱いを始める。まず有楽町店（東京・千代田）に郵便事業会社の拠点を設け、扱い店舗を増やし国際郵便などに業務を拡大する見通し。土日も営業し、切手やはがきの購入にビックカメラのポイントが使えるようにする。家電の通販カタログを郵便局に置いてもらうことも検討する。安売りで成長してきた家電量販店も消費不振を背景に、異業種と組み集客力強化に動く。
家電量販大手が郵便事業を手掛けるのは初めて。日本郵政はローソンと共同店舗の展開などを始めており、今回はこれに次ぐ小売り大手との提携となる。
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トヨタ、系列別販売を見直し 「プリウス」全店で
トヨタ自動車は国内販売をテコ入れするため、系列別の販売戦略を見直す。現在2系列で販売しているハイブリッド車「プリウス」を2009年春から全店で販売。地方では複数系列店による共同出店を進める。トヨタは国内自動車メーカーで唯一、系列別販売方式を維持してきた。人口減や若者の車離れという構造変化を受け、最大手のトヨタが販売体制にメスを入れることで、自動車業界は大きな転換点を迎える。
トヨタには「トヨタ」「トヨペット」「カローラ」「ネッツ」という4系列のトヨタブランド販売店がある。プリウスはトヨタ店とトヨペット店だけで販売してきたが、来春の全面改良と同時に、量販車中心のカローラ店とネッツ店でも販売する。トヨタが単一車種を全系列店で販売するのは1982年の製販統合以来初めて。(07:00)
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浅草寺本堂もチタン瓦に 09年からふき替え
50年ぶりに屋根をふき替える浅草寺（東京・台東）の本堂に金属屋根の製造・施工を手がけるカナメ（宇都宮市、渡部渉社長）のチタン製瓦が使われることになった。土瓦と比べて重さは13分の1で、地震にも強いという。来年2月に工事が始まり、2010年11月には身軽に生まれ変わった浅草寺がお目見えする。
同社は07年に浅草寺宝蔵門の屋根瓦の改修も手がけた。本堂の屋根面積は宝蔵門の3倍の約3000平方メートル。約9万枚の瓦が必要だ。費用は外装の工事を含めて17億円程度という。
木材で下地を整えて厚さ0.3ミリのチタン板を張り付けていく。価格は1平方メートルあたり6万5000円（施工費含む）で、土瓦の倍近いが、建物全体を大幅に軽量化できる。「瓦と瓦をかみ合わせて並べていく構造」（カナメ）になっており、強風や地震でも落下しにくい。チタン素材は金属としては耐久性が高く「酸性雨や潮風の影響がほとんどない」（同）利点もある。
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二階経産相、経団連に賃上げ要請
二階俊博経済産業相は10日朝、東京都内のホテルで日本経団連との懇談会を開いた。二階経産相は家計の購買力を上昇させるための賃上げを要請した。経団連の御手洗冨士夫会長は「重く受け止めている。経済界としても努力する必要がある」と述べた。経産相が経団連側に賃上げを直接要請するのは珍しい。
二階経産相は9日にまとめたばかりの「新経済成長戦略」について説明。成長戦略などにも盛り込まれた「大企業への賃上げ要求」について経団連側に理解を求めた。経団連側は国際租税制度など税制の改正を要望。賃上げについて、御手洗会長は「来年の春闘で対応できる努力はしていきたい」と応じた。(15: 04)
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三笠フーズ、全従業員に解雇通知
米粉加工会社「三笠フーズ」（大阪市）は9日、グループ会社を含む全従業員約100人に同日付けで解雇通知を出し、大阪府豊中市にある同社工場の操業をいったん停止したと明らかにした。解雇した社員の一部を10日付で再雇用し、事業は継続する方針。
同社財務担当者は解雇の理由について「取引が停止されるケースが相次いでおり、今後、従業員への退職金などが払えなくなる恐れがあるため」としている。社員には退職金を支払う準備ができたという。
同社によると、解雇されるのは社員約40人とパート従業員約60人。豊中市の工場では外食チェーン向けに炊飯や冷凍したコメを出荷していた。(07:00)
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教員採用、不正告発の情報28件寄せられる
文部科学省は9日、電子メールなどで「教員採用で不正があった」とする情報提供がこれまでに28件届いていることを明らかにした。具体的に名指しされた教育委員会に実態調査を求めているが、これまでに実際に不正があったとの報告はないという。
情報提供は同省あてが電子メールで19件、電話4件、投書2件。ほかに首相官邸に届いたメールが3件あった。具体的な教委名や学校名などを挙げて「大分県同様に裏金による採用が横行している」「一口30万から50万円を県会議員に払うのが相場」などと書かれていた。
文科省が教委に調査を求めたところ、21件については「不正はなかった」との回答があった。7件は調査中という。(07:00)
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東京裁判、全記録明らかに 国立公文書館が整理完了
日中戦争、太平洋戦争の政府、軍指導者を裁いた極東国際軍事裁判（東京裁判）判決から今年11月で60年を迎えるにあたり、国立公文書館（東京・千代田）は所蔵する裁判記録（和文）の整理とマイクロフィルム化を完了した。
同裁判全文書のマイクロ化は初めて。法廷に提出された被告尋問書や軍の機密文書などの書証の閲覧や検索、複写が可能になった。(07:00)
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東京都、シードに業務停止命令 コンタクトレンズ材料成分偽る
コンタクトレンズの材料成分を偽って販売していたとして、東京都は9日、コンタクトレンズ製造販売大手の「シード」（東京都文京区、井上忠社長）に対し、9月10日から30日までの21日間、薬事法に基づく製造販売の業務停止を命じた。
また、違法なコンタクトレンズを製造していた埼玉県桶川市の同社工場に埼玉県は同日、9月10―10月1日までの22日間、製造停止を命じた。
都によると、同社は1996年ごろから、7種類のコンタクトレンズの材料成分について、国からの承認当初とは異なる分量で、製造販売を続けた。同社は「レンズの装着感を高めるために、成分を勝手に変えていた。国から新たな承認を得るには2、3年かかるため、違法と知りつつやった」と説明する。(07: 00)
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事故米転売：三笠に配慮し契約時間調整 北海道農政事務所
三笠フーズ（大阪市北区）の汚染米転売問題で、農林水産省北海道農政事務所（札幌市）が昨年３月、カビ毒に汚染された事故米を同社に随意契約で売却した際、同社の意向に沿った形で契約時間を決めていたことが分かった。事故米の在庫削減を望む事務所側が、“お得意先”の三笠フーズに配慮した形。一方で、流通先の十分なチェックは怠っており、同省の対応が改めて問われそうだ。
農水省によると、同事務所は昨年初め、発がん性カビ毒「アフラトキシンＢ１」に汚染された中国産うるち精米を含む事故米２．８トンの売却を計画。事務所の担当者が、事故米の購入資格がある１７社のうち三笠フーズを含む６社に電話で打診したところ、三笠フーズだけが購入に応じた。
その際、三笠側は農政事務所に「契約時間を遅くしてくれたらありがたい」と要求。それまでの契約は午前中に行われていたが、事務所は要求を受け入れ、時間を午後３時に設定した。３月１日にあった契約の場には冬木三男社長が出席して見積書を提出し、「工業のり用」として１万４１６４円で売買する契約が成立した。
三笠フーズは、同事務所が０６年度に売却した事故米（５件、計３７．５トン）をすべて購入。うち３件は他に希望業者すらなかった。全国で事故米を買い集める同社はありがたい存在だったとみられ、同農政事務所は「売れ残れば倉庫費用がかさむ。担当者には売り切りたい思いがあった」と漏らす。
農水省は「業者の希望で契約時間が決まるのは問題。透明性のある契約をするように規則を決め、厳格に運営したい」としている。
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高齢者調査：「老老介護」が初の３割超 深刻な生活浮かぶ
家族間で介護する世帯のうち、高齢者が高齢者を世話する７０歳以上の「老老介護」世帯の割合が初めて３割を超えたことが、厚生労働省が９日公表した０７年国民生活基礎調査で分かった。夫婦両方またはどちらかが６５歳以上か、６５歳以上の単身で暮らしている世帯の数も１０００万を超え、高齢者世帯の過半数が「生活が苦しい」と感じるなど、超高齢化社会の深刻な生活実態が浮かんだ。
調査は８６年から毎年行われ、約２３万世帯の回答を集計した。今回は３年に１度の介護や健康に関する調査もした。
０７年６月現在の推計世帯数は４８０３万世帯で、６５歳以上がいるのは１９２６万世帯。８６年調査から、ほぼ倍増した。うち４３３万世帯は単身、５７３万世帯は夫婦のみで、いずれも過去最多を更新。合計で１００６万世帯と初めて１０００万世帯を超え、全世帯の約２１％を占めた。
高齢者世帯の平均年収（０６年）は３０６万円で、全世帯平均の６割以下。世帯１人当たりの収入も全世帯平均を約１２万円下回った。暮らしが「苦しい」と答えた割合は５２％に達した。
家族の介護では、主に事業者に任せている世帯が１２％と前回調査（０４年）より２ポイント下がり、６割が同居家族による介護だった。このうち介護する側が７０歳以上の割合は３４％と前回調査より６ポイント上がり、７０代を介護している４４％が同じ７０代だった。介護時間は「ほぼ終日」が２２％、「半日」が１０％で、６割以上の介護者が「悩みやストレスがある」と答えた。
厚労省統計情報部は「世帯の高齢化、小規模化が進み、高齢者を介護する若い世代の家族が減った。事業者の介護サービスも使われているが、家族の負担は依然大きい」と分析している。
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教員採用試験：不正情報は２８件－－文科省
文部科学省は９日、大分県の採用汚職の発覚後、「同様の不正がある」などとする情報が２８件寄せられていたことを明らかにした。文科省は内容を都道府県や政令市の教育委員会に伝え、調査を依頼した。これまでに２１件について回答があり、不正があったとの報告はないという。
情報はメール２２件、電話４件、投書２件。ほとんどが伝聞に基づく内容だが、口利きや現金授受など採用での不正、試験問題漏えい、昇任での不正などを指摘している。個人の具体名を挙げたものも多かった。対象の教委は全国にまたがる。
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小学館：月刊２誌休刊
小学館は９日、月刊誌「ラピタ」を１２月発売の０９年１月号で、月刊保育専門誌「Ｌａｔｔａ」を１月発売の０９年２、３月合併号で休刊すると発表した。
小学館によると、「ラピタ」は９５年に男性ライフスタイル誌として創刊。０２年１０、１１月に実売部数は約８万５０００部を記録したが、０７年３月～今年２月の平均実売は約１万９０００部まで落ち込んでいた。
一方、「Ｌａｔｔａ」は１９５５年創刊の月刊誌「幼児と保育」を０６年３月、新任保育者向け雑誌としてリニューアルして再出発したが、実売部数が低迷した。
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米リーマン：株価４５％下落 経営不安が深刻化
【ワシントン斉藤信宏】米証券大手リーマン・ブラザーズの経営不安が深刻化している。９日には、これまで出資を求めてきた韓国の政府系金融機関、韓国産業銀行との交渉が不調に終わったとの報道が伝わり、必要な資本調達ができないとの観測からニューヨーク株式市場で売りが殺到。終値は前日比６．３６ドル安の７．７９ドルまで下落、値下がり幅は４４．９５％に達した。事態を重く見たリーマンは急きょ、１８日に予定していた０８年６～８月期決算発表を１０日午前に前倒しした。
リーマンは６月に発表した０８年３～５月期決算で、低所得者向け高金利住宅ローン（サブプライムローン）問題に絡む評価損など７０億ドル（約７５００億円）を計上し、上場以来初の最終赤字に転落。６～８月期決算でも多額の損失を計上して２期連続の赤字になるとみられており、１月からの株価の下落幅は８８％に達している。このため、１０日の決算発表では、同時に経営再建策も公表して市場の不安を和らげたい考えだ。
ただ、９日には米格付け会社スタンダード・アンド・プアーズ（Ｓ＆Ｐ）が格付けを引き下げる方向で見直すと発表するなど、経営環境は厳しさを増している。立て直しに不可欠な増資も、８月下旬からの株価急落で「増資できるかどうか、見通しが極めて不透明になっている」（米エコノミスト）というのが実情。
増資の引受先については、８月下旬以降、日本の大手証券や大手行の名前も取りざたされているが、具体化には至っていない。米国では３月に証券大手ベア・スターンズが破綻（はたん）している。増資の道筋をつけられない状況が続けば、リーマンもさらに厳しい市場の批判を受ける可能性もある。
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大相撲：元若ノ鵬の復帰「受け入れない」－－武蔵川理事長
大麻所持容疑で逮捕され、８日に処分保留で釈放された大相撲、元幕内力士の若ノ鵬（２０＝本名ガグロエフ・ソスラン）＝２１日に解雇処分＝が９日、日本相撲協会を訪ね、武蔵川理事長（元横綱・三重ノ海）らに謝罪した。ガグロエフ元力士は角界に復帰したい意思を伝えたが、武蔵川理事長は「受け入れられない」と拒否した。
ガグロエフ元力士は紋付きの羽織袴（はかま）姿で、代理人の弁護士を伴って協会を訪れた。武蔵川理事長、伊勢ノ海事業部長（元関脇・藤ノ川）らの前で「世間や協会に迷惑をかけて反省している」と涙ながらに謝り、「戻してください」と訴えたが、武蔵川理事長は「将来有望だっただけに残念だが、すでに解雇処分を下しており、できない」と答えたという。
面会後に会見したガグロエフ元力士は「日本で大麻を吸うことは悪いと知っていたが、ロシアでは厳しくなかったので少年のころから経験があった」と明かし、「どうしても大相撲に戻りたい」と訴えた。
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大相撲：武蔵川理事長「厳しくやっていく」 朝青龍を呼び出しも
日本相撲協会の武蔵川・新理事長（元横綱・三重ノ海）が９日、協会刷新へ向けて始動し、会見を行った。
「うみを全部出して、巻き返していきたい。厳しくやっていく」と抱負を語った武蔵川理事長は、「協会員全員を招集しての研修会」「外国人力士を入門前に１年程度指導する」などの案を打ち出した。土俵内外の行動で批判の多い横綱・朝青龍については、「直接呼び出すこともある」と厳しい姿勢を見せた。
９日朝は、東京都荒川区の自身の部屋で、幕内の雅山、垣添ら弟子のけいこを見守った。指導熱心で知られるだけに「できるだけ（けいこは）見たいが、これから用事も多くなる」と語り、部屋付きの藤島親方（元大関・武双山）に「（不在の時は）代行としてピシッとやってくれ」と伝えたという。
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Australia, N.Z. Dollar Still Attractive, Rogers Says (Update1)
By Shamim Adam and Catherine Yang
Enlarge Image/Details
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Australia and New Zealand dollars, the worst performers this quarter among the world's major currencies, will likely recover after the unwinding of the carry trade ends, said investor Jim Rogers.
``I still own the Australian dollar,'' Rogers told Bloomberg Television. ``I'm not thinking of selling it because if I'm right, the reversal of the carry trade is not going to last forever, it will last for a while. The Australia, New Zealand currencies are still two of the better currencies in the world longer term.''
The two currencies, favorites of so-called carry trades where investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates, have dropped as slumping commodity and equity prices slashed demand for the countries' high-yielding assets.
Australia has a benchmark interest rate of 7 percent, while New Zealand's official cash rate is at 8 percent. In comparison, the Japan's key borrowing cost is 0.5 percent.
The Australian dollar has fallen 18 percent in eight weeks since reaching a 25-year high on July 16 and fell below 80 U.S. cents today for the first time since August 2007. New Zealand's dollar is trading near a two-year low.
Rogers, who correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, said he is buying ``main victims of the carry trade,'' such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. He also favors the Chinese yuan and the Singapore dollar, and expects the U.S. dollar to continue to strengthen.
Dollar's Rally
``I'm waiting for the dollar to continue to rally so I can sell dollars,'' Rogers said. ``The dollar recovery is certainly taking place and has ways to go -- a few weeks, a few months, maybe another year or so that the dollar could recover because it was beaten down so much.''
Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said he is still optimistic that commodities such as oil will rise over the longer term. Crude prices have dropped 29 percent since reaching a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11.
``It's not the end of the bull market because nobody's discovered any oil,'' he said. ``The global recession could have an effect on demand.''
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Oil Investors Pulled $39 Billion in Futures, Triggering Decline
By Daniel Whitten
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity index investors, blamed for record oil prices, sold $39 billion worth of oil futures between their July record and Sept. 2, causing crude to plunge, according to a report to be released today
The work by Michael Masters, president of the Masters Capital Management hedge fund, blames investors who buy and hold an index of commodities for driving prices to records, and for their subsequent drop. It comes a day before the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to discuss its own study of energy trading with a congressional committee.
Masters testified three times before Congress this year, arguing that limits on traders would cut oil prices to $65 to $70 a barrel. He has been cited by lawmakers who introduced at least 20 measures to curb speculation. Congressional pressure on the CFTC to step up enforcement and restrict anonymous trades has pushed index traders out of their positions, Masters said.
``I don't think it's just coincidence that the money came out after the pressure was put on these folks,'' Masters, who wants legislation that would set limits on index commodity holdings, said in an interview.
Crude oil futures surged to a record $147.27 on July 11, an increase of 53 percent for the year, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, then fell 26 percent to $109.71 on Sept. 2. Oil dropped $3.08 to $103.26 yesterday on the Nymex.
``The speculators that drove prices up basically deflated the bubble,'' said Fadel Gheit, director of oil and gas research at Oppenheimer Capital in New York. ``They said, `That's it, the game is over. We are going to bet on another horse.'''
CFTC Report
The commission is expected to release a report tomorrow that will lay out its findings on the impact of index investors and over-the-counter trading on commodities. Regulators may require Wall Street banks to regularly disclose their energy futures positions connected to the unregulated swaps market, according to people familiar with the discussions.
JPMorgan Chase and Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Barclays Plc and Morgan Stanley control 70 percent of the commodities swaps positions, and swaps dealers are the largest holders of Nymex crude oil futures contracts, Masters said.
Representatives for all four banks declined to comment. Banks enter into swaps with airlines and hedge funds to profit from moves in crude prices and then offset some of that risk in futures markets such as the Nymex.
``These large financial players have become the primary source of the recent dramatic and damaging price volatility,'' Masters said in the report.
The commission has put out special requests for information from traders and imposed limits on the number of U.S. oil futures contracts a trader can hold on Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s London-based ICE Futures Europe market.
Masters's Critics
Critics of Masters's earlier work said he lacks access to the data needed to draw his conclusions. His hedge fund is based in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Walter Lukken, the acting chairman of the commission, is among those who question the validity of Masters's data.
``Just as weather forecasters have no effect on the weather, energy speculators have no effect on the price of oil,'' said Scott Talbott, a lobbyist for the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents investors. ``His fallacy is that he ignores the laws of supply and demand, which determine the price of oil.''
Masters earlier this year reported that index speculators such as those that trade on Standard & Poor's GSCI accounted for $260 billion of assets, up from $13 billion in 2003. As of Sept. 2 that number was down to $223 billion, Masters said.
``For the supply and demand people, what I would like for them to explain is how from the supply-and-demand rationale you could have oil at $95 in January, at $150 in June and back to $100 in September,'' Masters said.
Hedge Fund Holdings
Masters's hedge fund held shares in the four major U.S. airlines, AMR Corp., Delta Air Lines Inc., US Airways Group Inc. and UAL Corp, according to a June 30 regulatory filing. Airlines hedge oil and have been hurt by commodity price fluctuations.
He said he extrapolates his numbers from agricultural data, which is publicly available, to arrive at overall numbers that include oil futures investments.
In arguing for legislation, lawmakers, primarily Democrats will point to the Masters report and a Massachusetts Institute of Technology report released in June alleging that speculation caused the rise in energy prices.
``Why did so much money come into these markets and why is it leaving,'' asked Senator Maria Cantwell, a Washington Democrat, in an interview. If Congress reduces scrutiny, ``do we see the run-ups happening again?''
CFTC data show that speculative net long positions in crude oil for non-commercial traders dropped from 115,145 for the week ended March 11, to a net short position, or a bet that prices would drop, for the week ended July 22, when prices started to plunge. For the week ended Sept. 2, net long speculative positions were 14,331.
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Royal Bank of Scotland Lifts Dollar Forecast Versus Pound, Euro
By Andrew MacAskill
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, the second-largest U.K. bank, raised its year-end prediction for the dollar, saying the U.S. currency will rise another 3.5 percent against Britain's pound.
The dollar will probably trade at $1.6970 per pound by the end of 2008, Adrian Schmidt, a senior foreign-exchange strategist in London at Royal Bank of Scotland, wrote in an e-mail today. Its previous year-end prediction for the pound was $1.88, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Against the euro, the dollar will probably strengthen to $1.40 by year-end, compared with an earlier forecast of $1.50 in a Bloomberg survey.
The pound fell to near the lowest level in 2 1/2 years against the dollar today, before rebounding and trading at $1.7584 as of 10 a.m. in London.
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Turkmenistan, Chine agree to enlarge capacity of prospective gas pipeline
07.09.2008, 21.32
ASHGABAT, September 7 (Itar-Tass) -- Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow and Chinese President Hu Jintao have agreed to enlarge the capacity of the unfinished Turkmenistan-China pipeline.
The Turkmen president said that the prospective pipeline would supply 40 billion cubic meters of gas to China each year instead of the previously planned 30 billion.
Jintao paid a visit to Turkmenistan in late August.
Turkmenistan and China agreed to form a joint cooperation commission, as well as signed a framework agreement between Turkmengas and CNPC on broader gas cooperation and an intergovernmental agreement on technical and economic cooperation.
The agreement to build the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline was reached in April 2006, when late Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov was still in office. The project was launched in August 2007, immediately after the official Chinese visit of Berdimuhamedow.
The total cost of the 1,818-kilometer pipeline will exceed $6.7 billion. Russia’s Stroitransgaz is building the Turkmen segment of the pipeline with the length of 188 kilometers.
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RF to sign decree on undiscriminatory access to gas supply system
09.09.2008, 13.34
MOSCOW, September 9 (Itar-Tass) - Russian federal antimonopoly service chief Igor Artemeyev said on Tuesday a draft decree on non-discriminatory access to Russia’s gas transport system has been submitted to the government for consideration.
“The issue will be resolved within the upcoming two weeks,” he said.
He admitted that Gazprom has certain objections to the document. The gas giant insists that not only its own load volumes, but also of its subsidiaries should be taken into account while defining free capacities.
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The conflict between the shareholders of the TNK-BP company is over
10.09.2008, 05.35
VIENNA, September 10 (Itar-Tass) - The conflict between the shareholders of the TNK-BP company is over, Russian Deputy Prime Minister told journalists. He is taking part in the 149th session of the Conference of Oil Ministers of member states of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna.
“I’m glad to tell you that the conflict is over,” said Sechin.
In the words of the vice prime minister, both sides have exerted efforts with a view to resolving this conflict that was caused first of all by the unregulated structure of the stockholder capital.
There have been many positive things in the interaction of the Russian and British sides. Thus, in particular, the “British side have brought new technologies to the management structure,” according to Sechin. The Russian side for its part ensured the reliable structure of reserves. So if at the moment of foundation the company’s market value had been 15 billion US dollars, then in 2007 its value reached 55 billion dollars, Sechin stressed.
TNK-BP is a leading Russian oil company and is among the top ten privately-owned oil companies in the world in terms of crude oil production. The company was formed in 2003 as a result of the merger of BP’ s Russian oil and gas assets and the oil and gas assets of Alfa, Access/Renova group (AAR). BP and AAR each own 50 percent of TNK-BP. The shareholders of TNK-BP also own close to 50 percent of Slavneft, a vertically integrated Russian oil company.
TNK-BP is a vertically integrated oil company with a diversified upstream and downstream portfolio in Russia and Ukraine. The company’s upstream operations are located primarily in West Siberia (Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Areas, Tyumen Region), East Siberia (Irkutsk Region), and Volga-Urals (Orenburg Region). In 2007 the company produced on average 1.6 mboed. Including its 50 percent share in Slavneft, average production was 1.8 mboed.
The independent audit conducted by DeGolyer and MacNaughton confirmed that as of 31 December 2007 TNK-BP’s Total Proved Reserves were 8.225 bn bbl of oil equivalent, applying SEC methodology on a life of field (LOF) basis. Proved Reserves constitutes a Total Proved SEC (LOF) reserve replacement ratio of 179 percent.
Under PRMS (formerly SPE) criteria, Total Proved Reserves were 9.982 bn bbl of oil equivalent. This represents a Total Proved PMRS reserves replacement ratio of 297 percent.
TNK-BP controls 675 thousand bbl/day in installed refining capacity, with principal refining assets located in Ryazan (near Moscow), Saratov (Volga-Urals), Nizhnevartovsk (West Siberia) and Lisichansk in Ukraine.
TNK-BP operates a retail network of approximately 1,600 filling stations Russia and Ukraine working under the BP and TNK brands. The company is one of the key suppliers to the Moscow retail market and is a market leader in Ukraine.
TNK-BP is headquartered in Moscow and is governed by a multinational management team with experience of working in over 50 different countries. A blend of the best international and Russian talent ensures accelerated introduction of world-class technology, project management, corporate governance and best Health, Safety and Environment practices.
TNK-BP employs approximately 65,000 people, mostly located in eight major areas of Russia and Ukraine.
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Russian Army's weaknesses exposed during war in Georgia
22:10 | 09/ 09/ 2008
MOSCOW. (Nikita Petrov, special for RIA Novosti) - On September 10, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov is scheduled to address the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, to inform the deputies about current military development and various problems.
(Russian troops return from Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone - Image gallery)
Serdyukov will probably have to explain why the Russian Army lacked modern weapons during the recent peace enforcement operation in Georgia.
The main elements of the North Caucasian Military District's 58th Army have already been re-deployed to Russia. The bravest officers and men have received government decorations. Those killed in action have been buried. And now it is high time to assess the operation's lessons.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has senior Defense Ministry officials to do this, also telling Serdyukov to submit proposals on amending the state rearmament program. The Russian Army primarily requires combat-support systems, rather than new weaponry, in order to become a genuinely modern and effective fighting force.
Those, who fought in the South Caucasus this August, know that Russian peace-keepers sustained the greatest casualties during the first hours of the Georgian aggression because Moscow and Vladikavkaz, where the 58th Army's headquarters is located, failed to promptly order troops to repel the attack and to send elements of the 58th Army to South Ossetia.
Бронетехника грузинских вооруженных сил на парадеMoreover, Russian forces did not know the firing positions of Georgia's Grad multiple-launch rocket systems, Gvozdika self-propelled guns and T-72 tank units.
Nor did the Russian Army have any dependable reconnaissance systems, including unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs).
Although Russian and foreign UCAVs are regularly displayed at the annual MAKS international aerospace show in Zhukovsky near Moscow, including at the MAKS-2007 show, the Russian Army still lacks them because the national Defense Ministry decided to stop buying them in 2006.
Consequently, the Russians had no choice but to send a Tupolev Tu-22M3 Backfire strategic bomber on a reconnaissance mission and to use Sukhoi Su-25 Frogfoot ground-attack jets to hit Georgian MLRS batteries.
The Georgians downed four Russian aircraft, which could have been saved if the Russians had the required UCAVs.
The destruction of three Su-25 attack planes, which had won a reputation for themselves during the 1979-1989 Afghan war, shows that they have not been overhauled since.
The Su-25s still lack radar sights, computers for calculating ground-target coordinates and long-range surface-to-air missiles that could be launched outside enemy air-defense areas.
Nor did they have any "smart" weapons for destroying Georgian artillery pieces and surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. This is quite surprising, because such weapons have been repeatedly displayed at various exhibitions.
Although some companies are ready to install interchangeable state-of-the-art radio and electronic equipment on the Su-35, the Defense Ministry prefers to deal with (and handsomely pay) its favorite contractors.
These companies were not up to the task, and are responsible for the loss of four aircraft and the capture of two pilots. Several more pilots were killed as a result of their incompetence.
A similar situation holds in the sphere of radio-electronic warfare. It turns out that Russian electronic counter-measures (ECM) systems are unable to jam and suppress enemy SAMs and reconnaissance systems, radars and UHV communications and troop-control networks.
This is rather disturbing, especially as the Georgian Army lacked modern systems. As a result the 58th Army sustained unnecessary casualties, and also lost more combat equipment than it should have.
ТАНК Т-90 СThe Russian tank force has been suffering from major problems for a long time. The North Caucasian Military District, for instance, still operates T-72 main battle tanks without night sights. But not even the more sophisticated T-80-U and T-90 have such sights, either.
Moreover, their explosive-reactive armor was not filled with explosives and could not therefore deflect high-explosive anti-tank (HEAT) weapons.
It is common knowledge that tanks are extremely vulnerable in mountainous and urban areas and during re-deployment because their crews lack all-round visibility, making it difficult to spot enemy soldiers with rocket launchers or shaped-charge hiding in caves and ravines and behind rocks and bushes.
The Dzerzhinsky Ural Railroad Car Works (Uralvagonzavod), which has developed all post-Soviet and Russian main battle tanks except the T-80, unveiled its Tank Support Combat Vehicle (TSCV) over 20 years ago.
The TSCV featured nine weapons systems, including guided anti-tank missiles, large-caliber machine-guns, SAMs and 30-mm and 40-mm automatic rocket launchers, and was intended to be used against Mujahedin forces in Afghanistan.
Most importantly, the TSCV had effective target-acquisition systems for detecting and killing enemy soldiers long before they could fire the first shot.
Although the TSCV has passed all state tests with flying colors and has also been displayed at numerous exhibitions, it has not served with the Russian Army to date.
Unlike most advanced foreign armies, including the Israeli Army, Russian tanks are not supported by attack helicopters. There is no regular radio communication between Russian tank, motorized-rifle, helicopter, attack-plane and tactical-bomber units either.
Although experts have been discussing the creation of an integrated combat-control system for many years, such a system remains on the drawing board.
The Russian Army and its commanders have not yet realized that all units and weapons accomplishing a joint objective must become part of an integrated combat-control system.
Russian officers and soldiers have to compensate for the current lag in combat-support systems with their selfless heroism and bravery. But this costs the country and its armed forces dearly.
It is high time we learned modern fighting skills. The system for awarding state defense contracts must also be modified accordingly.
Unfortunately, the Russian Army is unlikely to receive new weapons and combat-support systems after the South Ossetian conflict. Although Russia has once again paid a high price for victory, its generals and politicians often prefer empty talk to candid and sober-minded assessments.
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10:42 GMT, Tuesday, 9 September 2008 11:42 UK
Google to dump user data earlier
Google
Google is to halve the amount of time it stores users' personal search data in response to continued pressure from the EU over its privacy policy.
The search giant has said it will anonymise identifiable IP addresses on its server logs after nine months.
Google said respecting users' privacy is "fundamental to earning and keeping their trust".
In April, an EU advisory body recommended search engines should delete personal data within six months.
Google currently collects and stores information from each search query, holding information about the search query itself, the unique PC address (known as an IP number), and details about how a user makes their searches, such as the web browser that is being used.
The company says it needs this information to improve its various services and to help fight threats such as fraud, spam and malicious attacks, and to aid "valid legal orders" from law enforcement agencies.
It keeps this information for a set period before "anonymising" it - disconnecting the data from an individual.
In June last year, Google announced it was cutting the amount of time such data was stored from 24 to 18 months.
Back to top
The move is a response to the EU's Article 29 Working Body, a data protection advisory group that wrote to the firm questioning its privacy policies.
The group stated in a report published in April that Google had "insufficiently explained" why they were storing and processing personal data.
Peter Fleischer, Google's global privacy counsel, said in a reply to the group that the decision to further limit the amount of time to nine months was to "address regulatory concerns and to take another step to improve privacy for users".
"Finding the right balance between data retention and privacy is a tough issue for policymakers, Google and our industry." he said.
"There is great utility in data, but we also believe that limiting the amount and types of data we keep can improve privacy while continuing to provide a strong user experience."
He added that anonymising the data earlier will have costs, particularly in terms of future search quality improvements, but the company was working hard to minimise those losses.
The move by Google also follows a recent legal battle with Viacom, which had ordered the company to provide the personal details of millions of YouTube users.
Viacom has a $1bn (£497m) copyright infringement lawsuit against Google, owners of YouTube.
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佐ノ山親方、大麻で事情聴取
2008.9.10 05:01
大相撲九重部屋の佐ノ山親方（３４）＝元小結闘牙＝が、大麻使用に関して日本相撲協会から事情聴取を受けていたことを、９日発売の週刊朝日が報じた。
同誌によると、佐ノ山親方が昨年９月、東京・墨田区にオープンしたレゲイバーに大麻吸飲用パイプ数個が飾られており、７月の名古屋場所中に伊勢ノ海親方らから事情聴取を受けたという。佐ノ山親方は「『大麻を吸っているという話が協会に来ている』と言われました。『吸ったことはありません。調べていただいてもいい』と答えました。別に調べられはしなかったけど」と大麻の使用を否定している。
佐ノ山親方はサンケイスポーツの取材に対しても「レゲイバーなのでインテリアとして飾っていただけ。（パイプは）大阪の雑貨屋で買った」と説明した。同店は経営上の理由などで、すでに閉店した。
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大相撲：武蔵川理事長「厳しくやっていく」 朝青龍を呼び出しも
日本相撲協会の武蔵川・新理事長（元横綱・三重ノ海）が９日、協会刷新へ向けて始動し、会見を行った。
「うみを全部出して、巻き返していきたい。厳しくやっていく」と抱負を語った武蔵川理事長は、「協会員全員を招集しての研修会」「外国人力士を入門前に１年程度指導する」などの案を打ち出した。土俵内外の行動で批判の多い横綱・朝青龍については、「直接呼び出すこともある」と厳しい姿勢を見せた。
９日朝は、東京都荒川区の自身の部屋で、幕内の雅山、垣添ら弟子のけいこを見守った。指導熱心で知られるだけに「できるだけ（けいこは）見たいが、これから用事も多くなる」と語り、部屋付きの藤島親方（元大関・武双山）に「（不在の時は）代行としてピシッとやってくれ」と伝えたという。
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武蔵川新理事長「朝青問題再発ならクビ」
執務席に座る武蔵川新理事長（撮影・宇治久裕）
執務席に座る武蔵川新理事長（撮影・宇治久裕）
日本相撲協会のトップに立った武蔵川新理事長（６０＝元横綱三重ノ海）が９日、角界綱紀粛正の象徴として横綱朝青龍（２７＝高砂）の再教育を宣言した。場所や巡業で尊大な態度を取った場合などは、直接呼び出して警告、問題行動を起こした場合は、解雇処分とする方針を示した。北の湖前理事長（元横綱）は「土俵の充実」を強く唱えたが、新理事長は一連の不祥事の「再発防止」を最大のテーマに掲げた。
不祥事再発防止への第１歩が「朝青龍再教育」だ。武蔵川新理事長はこの日、理事長室に報道陣を招き入れ、相次ぐ事件、騒動で信頼を失った角界の再建方針を披露。これまで数々の問題を起こしてきた朝青龍について「ちゃんとやってもらわないと、やめさせるしかない」と明言した。
昨夏の「朝青龍仮病騒動」以来、角界は次々に不祥事に見舞われた。特に大麻問題は、規律の緩みから噴出したといえ、早期の綱紀粛正は必要不可欠。そこで新理事長が着目したのが、全力士の見本であるべき横綱、特に朝青龍の再教育だった。
朝青龍の態度には、以前から不満を感じていた。国内巡業で朝げいこをサボり、親方衆に横柄な態度を取ったことを耳にすると、師匠の高砂親方（元大関朝潮）に「ちゃんと指導しろ。そのうち、とんでもないことになるぞ」と警告したこともある。「毎場所、モンゴルに帰国するのはどうかと思う。写真集を出したと聞くが、昔の横綱では考えられないような内容だ」。今後、目に余る言動をとった場合は「直接呼び出して、注意、指導することもある」とした。
朝青龍はじめ、問題の多い立ち合いの整備もはかる。「審判部の指導も期待するが、しっかり手をつくように各師匠に伝えたい」。元若ノ鵬の逮捕、元露鵬、元白露山の大麻吸引で必要に迫られる「外国出身力士の徹底指導」についても「まずは日本語を覚えること。そのために新弟子検査を受けるまでに１年間ぐらいは研修を受けるべき」と話した。
立ち合いはもちろん、現在「６カ月間」の規定がある外国出身力士への指導期間も、北の湖体制下ではあいまいになっていた。ここにもメスを入れ、「のど元を過ぎれば」ですませてきた角界の体質自体を変えるつもりだ。「うみを全部出し切って、巻き返していきたい」。初登板となる秋場所初日恒例の「協会あいさつ」でも、大麻問題についての反省と謝罪を盛り込むことを明言していた。
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朝青龍を守りすぎた 北の湖体制の６年
2008年9月10日10時48分
力士の大麻問題で一時代に幕が下りた。辞任した日本相撲協会の北の湖前理事長（元横綱）は、０２年の就任以来６年間、角界のかじ取り役を務めてきた。口癖だった「土俵の充実」は功罪両面を残した。
不祥事への対応の遅れをはじめ、最近は「罪」の印象が強い。口べたで説明不足。だが、最大の失態は朝青龍を可愛がりすぎたことではないか。問題が起きるたびに師匠の高砂親方（元大関朝潮）をしかることもなく、横綱をかばった。そのことがさらに朝青龍の行動を横柄にした。
記憶に新しいのが５月の夏場所千秋楽の両横綱のにらみ合いだ。明らかに勝負が終わった後に朝青龍が白鵬に体をぶつけ、最後に両手でダメを押した。そこで白鵬が押し返したのに前理事長は「朝青龍のだめ押しは相撲の流れ。応戦した白鵬が悪い」と結論づけた。結局、横綱審議委員会から両成敗を促された。
サッカー騒動で処分を決める際にも、前理事長は「２場所出場停止は重すぎる」と主張。「憎らしいほど強い」と評された自らの現役時代とダブるのか、批判を浴びながらも土俵で結果を出し続ける朝青龍の数少ない理解者だった。
だが、それは結果的に、横綱を見て育つ若手や外国出身の力士らの緩みにつながったと見る向きが、関係者の間では多数派だ。
角界の足元を固めたことは「功」と言える。一時の不人気を抜け出し、協会の０７年度の決算は約１０億６千万円の単年度黒字。来期は繰越金が約７２億９千万円にのぼり、所管の文部科学省から「財団法人としてお金を持ち過ぎ」と指摘されたほどだ。
世話人を８人から１３人に増やしたことも功績だろう。元力士の経験を現役力士に数多く反映させることや、引退力士の就職先の拡充、０３年から復活した巡業の勧進元制度への対応までを考えた措置だった。
横綱としての取り口は豪快だったが、土俵外では慎重派。よくも悪くも個性がくっきり出た６年だった。
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大相撲大麻吸引疑惑：犯罪ではないのになぜ解雇されるのか
沢井まこと2008/09/10
大麻吸引疑惑でロシア人力士の露鵬と白露山が解雇処分された。疑惑はあるが全く証拠がないのにである。ワイドショーや芸能新聞に影響されてはいけない。今回の解雇を自分のこととして考えてみてほしい。
ロシア 犯罪 NA_テーマ２
大麻吸引疑惑で、ロシア人力士の露鵬、白露山が解雇処分されたことを報道で知った。その前に処分された若ノ鵬は、大麻の所持が認められたので解雇は仕方がないのかもしれない。にしても、露鵬と白露山の場合は疑惑はあるが全く証拠がない。なのに解雇である。
角界のイメージや社会に与える影響を考えると今回の処分は妥当という見方が大半のようであるが、筆者は若干疑問を抱いた。犯罪ならば処分されても仕方がない。しかし露鵬と白露山の場合は容疑も確定していないのに処分が決定されたということを考えてほしい。
私は今回、マスコミによって“角界悪人ショー”が演じられたというイージを抱いた。マスコミといっても、特にテレビのワイドショー（最近の民放のニュースはほとんどワイドショー化しているが）、スポーツ・芸能を扱ういわゆるスポーツ新聞の報道はひどい。まるで言葉の暴力だ。みんなこぞって外国人力士叩きである。
日本相撲協会が、露鵬と白露山の解雇を決めたのは、いわゆるトカゲのしっぽ切りで早く幕引きをしたかったとみえる。北の湖理事長も含めて「悪いのはこの人たちですからクビにします」というように、協会が問題を解決を焦ったように思う。マスコミがあまりにも騒ぐものだから、その勢いもあったのだろう。日本相撲協会はすっかりマスコミに操られているようだ。
ＪＡＮＪＡＮの読者の皆さんも大麻吸引の“疑惑”だけでこの処分が妥当なのか？考えてみてほしい。
大麻に対する認識は日本と欧米では違い、規制があまりない外国に比べて日本では“麻薬”と同じ扱いをされている。確かに悪いイメージがある。こんな言い方をすると語弊があるかもしれないが、大麻より酒のほうが体にはよくないという専門家も多いそうだ。
若ノ鵬の発言を聞いていても想像がつくとおり、ロシアで大麻吸引しても犯罪にならないようだ。（ロシアの法律を把握していないが）なので、若ノ鵬は日本では「犯罪になるけどたいした罪にならないだろう」との認識だったようである。日本人の常識からしたら考えが甘いということになるが、ロシアの若者からすれば、大麻はその程度のことなのだ。
さて、露鵬と白露山のことである。彼らが、大麻をすっていたかどうかはわからない。精密検査の結果もすっていた証拠にならない。たとえば今後、「大麻を吸っていたことがある」と告白したとしても、今の法律では罪に問えない。
つまり犯罪を犯していない人が、なぜ解雇という処分になるのだろう。普通の会社であれば不当解雇で訴えられてもおかしくない。
ＪＡＮＪＡＮ読者の皆さん。ワイドショーや芸能新聞に影響されてはいけない。今回の解雇を自分のこととして考えてみてほしい。あなたが犯罪を犯していないのに会社を解雇されたらどうするか？
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元若ノ鵬、謝罪のため元露鵬と元白露山のマンションを訪れるも中に入れず
大相撲間垣部屋を解雇された元若ノ鵬は10日午後、東京・日本橋にある元露鵬と元白露山のマンションを訪れたが、中に入ることはできなかった。
間垣部屋を解雇された元若ノ鵬は10日午後5時半ごろ、8日に相撲協会を解雇された大嶽部屋の元露鵬と、北の湖部屋の元白露山のマンションを訪れた。
元若ノ鵬は「(元露鵬と元白露山に会いに行く?)謝りたいです」と話した。
しかし、中に入ることはできなかった。
元若ノ鵬は「あ～あ...。」、「話す気持ちになれないです」と肩を落とし、現場をあとにした。
9日夜、マンション前で元白露山は、記者からの「お話ししていただけないでしょうか?」、「大麻はやっていない?」との質問に答えず、ラフな格好で同じ部屋の力士と出かけていた。
そして、その後、元露鵬も「今の気持ちは?」との質問に答えなかった。
大麻問題の黒い影は、今も3人の力士を覆っている。
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元若ノ鵬「まげ切るつもりない」
８月に大麻所持容疑で警視庁に逮捕された元前頭若ノ鵬（２０＝本名・ガグロエフ・ソスラン）が９日、解雇された日本相撲協会を訪れ「再雇用」を嘆願した。代理人の竹内栄弁護士とともに、両国国技館の理事長室で武蔵川理事長らに謝罪。長髪を後頭部で結び、黒の羽織はかま姿で「どうしても相撲を取りたいです。（まげを）切るつもりはない」と沈痛な表情で話した。
逮捕３日後の８月２１日、現役力士初の解雇処分を受けた。竹内弁護士は「過去の協会の不祥事と比べても処分が重すぎる」と、昨年の時津風部屋序ノ口力士死亡事件を例に出した。同事件で傷害致死罪で起訴された兄弟子３人は「有罪確定なら解雇」で出場停止中。元若ノ鵬は逮捕直後に解雇され「人が亡くなっていますけど、（時津風部屋の兄弟子は）現在も解雇処分されてません」と、展開次第で法的手続きに訴える考えを明かした。
だが、現在の規則では「復帰」は不可能だ。協会の行動規範を定めた「寄附行為」の第９６条には「協会所属員にして、引退・解雇・除名または脱走した者は、再び協会に帰属することができない」と明記してある。九重広報部長（元横綱千代の富士）は「涙ながらに反省していたが、処分を変えることはできない」と話した。
元若ノ鵬は８日夜に、在籍していた間垣部屋を訪れたが、間垣親方（元横綱２代目若乃花）は不在。「お弟子さんから『部屋にはもう来ないように』という親方の言葉を聞きました」と門前払いされたいう。法を犯した代償の大きさを、あらためて感じていた。
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朝来たら、もういなかった露鵬…
解雇処分から一夜明けた大相撲の元幕内・露鵬と元十両・白露山の兄弟は、それぞれの所属部屋を退去した。午後１時過ぎに白露山は髪を下ろした状態で帽子をかぶり、Ｔシャツにハーフパンツというラフな姿で北の湖部屋の玄関に現れ、部屋の車に乗車した。報道陣の問いかけには終始、無言で無表情を貫いた。露鵬が所属していた大嶽部屋の関係者は「朝来たら、もういなかった。荷物はまだ置いてある」とだけ話した。
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露鵬＆白露山 早くも格闘界が争奪戦！？
大麻で解雇された露鵬（２８）、白露山（２６）に早くも格闘界入り情報だ。兄弟でアマレス世界ジュニア選手権で優勝している実力の持ち主だから、プロレスや総合格闘技が放っておくわけがないのだ。あるプロデューサーは、「１０月１９日の格闘技イベントに露鵬と白露山の２人をリングサイドに招待するつもりだ」と言う。さらには「兄弟で“ピカレスクコンビ”を結成すれば、絶対人気が出る」と２人のキャラクターにまで言及だ。ひょっとしたら、ひょっとするかも知れない。
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露鵬＆白露山、部屋に別れ
私服姿で北の湖部屋を出る白露山
解雇処分を受けた元十両白露山は９日午後、Ｔシャツに短パンというラフな格好で北の湖部屋を出て、都内の自宅マンションに向かった。ロス巡業での大麻使用について聞かれても無言を貫いた。夜になり、同部屋の若い衆が白露山の荷物を同マンションに運びこんだ。一方、兄の元平幕露鵬は、８日未明に大嶽部屋から自宅マンションへ。部屋を出る際に別れのあいさつをし、大嶽親方から「いつでも遊びに来ていいんだぞ」と声を掛けられた。同部屋ではこの日のけいこ中に、一連の騒動を受け、若い衆に外出禁止令が言い渡された。また、けいこ場に掛けてある「露鵬」の番付板が外された。
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