Big pay claim fuels German inflation fear
By Chris Bryant in Berlin and Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt
Published: September 8 2008 20:09 | Last updated: September 8 2008 20:09
Germany’s largest trade union demanded an inflation-busting pay rise for its 2.3m members on Monday, threatening higher labour costs as companies struggle with the slowing economy.
IG Metall, the engineering workers’ union, is calling for a 7 to 8 per cent increase, its biggest demand for 16 years, defying a warning from the European Central Bank that wage rises could add to inflationary pressure.
Berthold Huber, the president, said the bid “took into account the macroeconomic situation and the expectations of workers”. The union recognised the economy was slowing, but there was “no reason to doubt the vitality of the Germany economy”.
Employers struggling with high raw material costs and the strong euro reacted with dismay. German industrial orders fell in July for an eighth consecutive month, and production has dropped in recent months.
Gesamtmetall, the employers’ association for the metal and electrical industry, warned that such a big pay jump was misguided given the economic outlook. “To make the biggest demand in 16 years right now is unreasonable and puts the acceptance of our system of wage agreement in danger,” Martin Kannegiesser, president, said.
The IG Metall wage negotiation round has traditionally been a bellwether for European wage setting and workers are in no mood to share employers’ pain this year.
German unions have this year shaken off years of wage restraint to force above-inflation increases. They have been aided by a favourable political climate, which has seen the SPD track left to fend off the Left party, a newly formed alliance of former East German communists and western trade unionists.
In February, steelworkers won a 5.2 per cent pay increase, while the previous month train drivers secured an 11 per cent rise.
During the last wage round, IG Metall sought a 6.5 per cent increase for its members and reached a two-stage settlement of an initial 4.1 per cent rise, followed by another 1.7 per cent, spread over 19 months.
The final wage demand will be agreed later this month at a special meeting after further discussions at a regional level.
The ECB fears high inflation caused by oil prices is in greater danger of becoming entrenched in the eurozone than in the US, and has been alarmed by a recent sharp pick-up in eurozone unit labour costs.
Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, gave warning on Monday that the world faced “a very, very significant increase” in inflation. Speaking after a meeting of central bankers in Basel, Switzerland, he said: “We all agree that a solid anchoring of inflation expectations is of the essence for all of us in the present environment.”
Last week Mr Trichet shot a warning across the bows of IG Metall, expressing “very strong concern that the emergence of broad-based second-round effects in price and wage-setting behaviour could add significantly to inflationary pressures”.
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Black Sea coastline heads upmarket
By Kerin Hope and Theodor Troev in Sofia
Published: September 8 2008 17:54 | Last updated: September 8 2008 17:54
Bulgaria’s Black Sea shoreline once marked the country’s eastern border. Under communism, the coastal waters were effectively barred to all but licensed fishermen and small boats from officially approved clubs.
“Effectively the beach was the frontier and the sea was closely patrolled,” says Petar Kaloianov, a veteran yacht skipper. Twenty years on, the secluded coastline is acquiring a special allure for the global super-rich hoping to escape the sometimes unwelcome attention they attract elsewhere on Europe’s crowded beaches.
Kavarna, the northernmost town along Bulgaria’s 380km stretch of Black Sea coastline, is one place where they have found a welcome retreat, says Tsonko Tsonev, mayor.
“Some legendary rock groups play our summer festival, then stay on for a quiet holiday,” Mr Tsonev says. “The yacht business is at an early stage of development and we don’t get crowds of pleasure boats up here.”
Rock star Alice Cooper and members of Manowar, the heavy metal band, were seen in Kavarna recovering from marathon gigs at the Kaliakra rock festival in July.
Members of the Bulgarian ex-royal family, the Saxe-Coburgs and friends, are regular visitors and so is Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor of Moscow, who owns a seaside resort in Bulgaria.
Bulgaria is keen to encourage this trend and exploit the coastline’s potential for high-end tourism, overcoming the country’s image as a provider of cheap apartments for beach and ski holidays.
Only a handful of foreigners have berths in Bulgarian marinas so far, but several hundred foreign yachts called in at Black Sea ports this summer – though numbers fell in the wake of the Georgian crisis.
”We get people cruising in from the Aegean for a few days to take a look,” Mr Kaloianov said.
They are following in the wake of Bulgaria’s new rich, who are moving their sailing boats and motor-yachts out of the Aegean to cruise in home waters.
Boyko Aleksandrov, an interior designer from Sofia, says he used to keep his 13-metre sailing boat at Kavalla in northern Greece because of the lack of modern facilities in Bulgaria. But this summer he found a berth at a new luxury coastal resort.
“My business partner convinced me I should make the move,” Mr Aleksandrov says. “I was surprised to find a small but growing number of Bulgarians and foreigners chartering boats for a Black Sea cruise.”
After several years of economic growth – above 6 per cent yearly – a new class of entrepreneurs can afford a motor or sailing yacht, says Petko Bachiyski, co-founder of Yachting, a company that imports yachts and provides crews and maintenance for owners.
Bulgaria’s European Union accession in 2007 has also helped open the market. The value of new yachts sold in Bulgaria doubled last year to about €70m ($99m, £56m). Most were small power-boats built in Italy, Mr Bachiyski says. “People buy off the shelf because they don’t want to wait a year or more for a new boat to be built,” he says. “There was so much demand this year that we chartered a small commercial freighter, filled it with new boats and sold them direct from our warehouse.”
Bulgaria has only one private marina with capacity for about 350 yachts in a bay south of Varna, a large commercial port. But another half-dozen private marinas are set for construction, mostly near small fishing ports.
Meanwhile, summer anchorages are available in secluded bays or off traditional fishing ports such as Balchik, Nessebar and Sozopol. It takes about a day to sail south to Turkey and navigate the crowded Bosphorus to reach Istanbul.
Skilled sailors go north from Kavarna, past the Danube delta, rich in wildlife, to Odessa in Ukraine, beating against the prevailing northerly winds.
Yet the Black Sea is unlikely to attract a host of yachts in the near future.
“It’s a rougher sea and a shorter season than in the Mediterranean. But as the supply of yachts for chartering increases, we expect more people to try sailing here,” says Georgi Mihov of Venid Yachts, an importer and charterer.
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Bush to withdraw 4,000 Iraq troops
By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington
Published: September 9 2008 00:24 | Last updated: September 9 2008 00:24
George W. Bush plans to withdraw 4,000 troops from Iraq before the end of his presidency as the Pentagon starts to shift its focus to Afghanistan, the White House said on Monday.
The US will withdraw 3,400 combat support troops in addition to a battalion of marines over the next few months, according to an advance transcript of a speech Mr Bush gives on Tuesday to the National Defence University. Under the plan, the Pentagon will also not replace an army combat brigade – about 3,500 soldiers – that is expected to return from Iraq in February.
While he held out the possibility of further cuts next year, that decision will fall to his successor, who assumes office in January.
“If the progress in Iraq continues to hold, General Petraeus [the US commander in Iraq] and our military leaders believe additional reductions will be possible in the first half of 2009,” said Mr Bush.
In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Gen Petraeus said it was feasible that US combat troops could leave Baghdad by next July. That would coincide with a long-term security agreement being negotiated between Washington and Baghdad, which is expected to call for US combat forces to pull back from Iraqi cities by next summer.
The latest reduction in US forces comes as Iraq continues to see a significant decline in violence.
The number of US and Iraqi casualties has dropped dramatically since early 2007 when Mr Bush announced he was sending a “surge” of 30,000 additional forces to Iraq to help tackle the escalating sectarian violence.
“While the progress in Iraq is still fragile and reversible . . . there now appears to be a degree of durability to the gains we have made,” Mr Bush was expected to tell the National Defence University audience.
While announcing reductions in Iraq, Mr Bush said the Pentagon planned to send additional forces to Afghanistan.
The move would be part of a “quiet surge” to deal with the increased attacks from Taliban and al-Qaeda militants.
US commanders in Afghanistan have requested an additional 10,000 troops to help quell the insurgency, but sending additional forces has been contingent on pulling soldiers and marines out of Iraq.
The US is also launching an initiative to double the size of the Afghan national army over the next five years.
While Mr Bush made no mention of funding in his remarks, the US hopes Nato allies can help pay some of the cost of training and equipping these additional forces.
Mr Bush added that Pakistan also had a responsibility to clamp down on extremists operating inside its borders with Afghanistan.
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Russia agrees to Georgia pullback
By Charles Clover in Moscow and Tony Barber in Brussels
Published: September 8 2008 18:28 | Last updated: September 8 2008 22:04
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, agreed on Monday to dismantle Russian checkpoints in Georgia and replace its troops with 200 European Union monitors by October 1, a breakthrough in peace negotiations that had been at stalemate for the past several weeks.
On a visit to Moscow, Nicolas Sarkozy, the president of France, said: “Within a week the checkpoints will have been dismantled and, within a month, the Russian troops will have been withdrawn from Georgian territory with the exception of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.”
Mr Medvedev said Moscow had agreed to “complete withdrawal of Russian troops from areas adjacent to the line that preceded the beginning of military action”. This would be implemented within 10 days of the “deployment of international mechanisms”, including 200 EU observers, no later than October 1 2008.
Mr Sarkozy said that, if Russia kept the promises that Mr Medvedev made on Monday, the EU would resume talks next month on a long-term partnership agreement to replace a 10-year accord that had been signed in 1997.
The EU decided at an emergency summit last week to postpone the next round of talks, due to be held next Monday, unless Russia pulled back its forces to positions occupied before fighting erupted in Georgia.
Mr Medvedev said Russian troops would pull out of areas around the Black Sea port of Poti in the next seven days but only if the Georgians pledged not to use force against Abkhazia.
Mr Medvedev accused Tbilisi of not honouring its commitment to keep its forces in positions agreed in a ceasefire reached on August 12, and accused Washington of rearming Georgian forces. “Russia is completing it [the earlier ceasefire] to the full, but at the same time I could not claim the same about the Georgian party, which is trying to restore its military potential, and some of our partners, the United States, are actively helping them,” he said.
The US has denied it is supplying arms to Georgia.
Mr Medvedev and Mr Sarkozy have been embarrassed by Russia’s apparent failure to abide by the agreement signed on August 12. Russian forces continued to push forwards towards Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, several days after Mr Medvedev had ordered a ceasefire.
Analysts blamed poor communications with the military and even disagreement between Mr Medvedev and Vladimir Putin, the powerful prime minister and former president.
Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Institute said Mr Medvedev might not be in control. “We realise that we have a form of government that people refer to as a tandem,” he said. “Medvedev is part of that, but not the whole of that. . . . There does not seem to be much daylight between the two right now.”
Most of the EU’s 27 member states had no appetite for tougher measures against Russia, let alone economic sanctions, in view of the EU’s heavy reliance on oil and gas supplies from Russia.
Germany and Italy, in particular, stressed the need to communicate with Moscow and took the view that Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president, bore some responsibility for the outbreak of hostilities.
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Cheney warns on Russia’s energy grip
By Guy Dinmore in Rome
Published: September 8 2008 13:10 | Last updated: September 8 2008 13:10
Dick Cheney, the US vice president who is on a four-country mission to counter Russia’s projection of power following its invasion of Georgia, reiterated his warning to Italy on Monday that Moscow should not be allowed to dominate energy supplies to Europe.
Mr Cheney met Giorgio Napolitano, Italy’s left-wing and largely ceremonial president, at his Quirinale palace in Rome before some scheduled sight-seeing in the ancient Etruscan town of Orvieto. He was due to meet Silvio Berlusconi, centre-right prime minister, on Tuesday.
Visiting Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine and Italy, Mr Cheney’s message to Russia has been to withdraw its troops from Georgia and behave in line with international norms or risk derailing its economic development. In parallel, Mr Cheney is telling Europe to lessen its dependence on Russian gas.
A senior US official travelling with Mr Cheney told reporters: “Russia has worked hard to try to corner the (energy) market, so to speak, and is working to foreclose options to transit for those energy products across Russia.”
“They want everything to come out through Russia and a lot of us think it’s more important that there be diverse means of gaining access to those resources,” he said, quoted by Reuters and speaking on condition of anonymity. “No one country ought to be able to totally dominate those deliveries.”
Italy is in a particularly sensitive position, heavily reliant on energy imports and trying to diversify its sources. Eni, the part state-owned energy company, has entered into the South Stream project with Russia’s Gazprom to build a new pipeline that would take Russian gas under the Black Sea to eastern Europe and beyond to the Balkans and Italy.
Glen Howard, president of the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington security think-tank, believes Mr Cheney wants “to drive a stake through the heart of South Stream”.
The US is throwing its weight behind the Nabucco project which would take gas from Azerbaijan and possibly Turkmenistan to Europe, bypassing Russia. The Bush administration is concerned, however, that Azeri gas will be sold to Russia instead.
European energy executives argue that the two proposed pipelines should not be seen as rivals as projected demand for gas will easily absorb both. In meetings with Mr Cheney over the past week, they have also expressed concern that Russia’s invasion of Georgia last month risked interrupting oil supplies through the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline that transits Georgia, and might jeopardise Nabucco in future.
The Jamestown Foundation noted that Russia’s energy ministry has doubled the estimated cost of South Stream to $20bn, making the project less interesting for investors compared with Nabucco.
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The Short View: Fannie and Freddie
By John Authers, Investment Editor
Published: September 8 2008 18:23 | Last updated: September 8 2008 18:23
Hank Paulson is the financial world’s bicycle repairman-in-chief. The weekend’s news that the US was taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was the most drastic attempt yet by the US government to stem the leaks in the inner tubes of the world’s financial system.
Hold an inner tube under water and often new leaks appear in new places. Fix one and a leak starts elsewhere.
Stoppering up the risk of failure by Fannie and Freddie provoked a global investor rush to take more risk on Monday. Stocks rose while extra spreads on mortgages dropped, as did spreads on corporate credit. Equity volatility fell.
But after every other rescue in this crisis, bubbles soon appeared from leaks elsewhere in the system.
One candidate for a leak is the credit default swaps market. How will it handle default by such massive issuers?
Another is the holders of Fannie and Freddie’s preferred stock. These include many US regional banks.
Then there could be perverse trading effects. Many hedge funds have been betting on oil prices to rise while financial stocks fall. But since mid-July, when the US announced its first package to bolster Fannie and Freddie, the opposite bet, on bank stocks to beat energy prices, has doubled. Any hedge funds still betting against Uncle Sam will now be nursing big losses, particularly if they used borrowed money.
And there are risks to market infrastructure. The London Stock Exchange suffered a heavy outage on Monday; was this related to the surge in trading?
If none of these pressure points springs a leak, then markets must try to understand bigger macro effects. Has the dollar strengthened too fast? Is optimism overdone when the intervention was only necessary because of appalling problems for the US housing market? But first, we need to check for leaks.
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Manufacturing: a survival strategy
Published: September 8 2008 22:16 | Last updated: September 8 2008 22:16
Like Gordon Brown’s decision to hold his first cabinet meeting after parliament’s summer break in Birmingham, the prime minister’s strategy to revive British manufacturing is short on substance. The value of 64 pages of upbeat-sounding blurb from the Department for Business is questionable. Indeed, UK exporters will be more relieved by the steep fall in the pound and a correction in oil prices than the £150m the government has set aside to help their expansion. But what Monday’s blueprint does show is that ministers are listening to their concerns. That is a useful first step.
After a decade of restructuring and the loss of about 1m jobs, much of what is described as British manufacturing is no longer cars, traditional metal-bashing and mass production of low-margin, price sensitive components. High volume production has shifted to lower cost Asian centres. As a result, manufacturing’s share of overall economic output has fallen from 19 per cent in 1995 to 14 per cent today.
Yet the survivors of the UK’s once broad industrial base are in strong shape. Sustained cost-cutting has increased productivity, making exporters more resilient to swings in demand. Strongly branded producers focused on technology and overseas markets are succeeding. More companies are involved in high value-added research and development, design and marketing. A product may say “Made in China” on the box, but the chances are its high-tech components have been made elsewhere.
This shift has informed the government’s thinking. It plans a new technology centre in Coventry, 1,500 manufacturing apprenticeships, a supportive public procurement strategy and Whitehall offices to help companies cash in on probable investment in nuclear and renewable power. All this is welcome. A campaign to promote industry in schools should improve manufacturing’s image as a poor career choice.
The main problem with the strategy is that it promises more than it can deliver. Mr Brown’s forecast of up to 1m new “green” jobs in 20 years overstates the impact of spending on low-carbon technology.
His expectation that UK companies will play a big role in nuclear’s renaissance also invites scepticism. French firms – Electricité de France and Areva – have considerably more expertise and deeper pockets. One can question, too, the sense of pinning policy to statistical classifications. A profitable car designer provides a valued “service” if the car is made by someone else. Defining that as manufacturing may lead to the wrong set of policy conclusions.
For all the UK’s excellence in financial services, the consumer and banking-led downturn is a reminder that it cannot thrive as a “post-industrial” society powered by services alone. If competitive goods exports are to spur a recovery from the effects of the credit crunch, it will be essential to foster manufacturing’s new-found resilience.
A sustained fall in the exchange rate would help achieve that. So would a guarantee not to raise business tax rates. In the absence of the latter, Mr Brown is merely oiling the wheels.
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Computer breakdown disrupts LSE trading
Bloomberg
Published: September 08, 2008, 23:50
London: London Stock Exchange Group Plc, operator of the world's fourth-largest market, broke down on the biggest session for European equities in nine months, hurting clients who trade an average $17.5 billion a day.
Trading resumed at 4pm after an earlier computer failure left clients unable to buy or sell shares for about seven hours, according to the LSE's website.
About 352 million shares, worth about $2.5 billion, changed hands in the first hour of trading before the halt, more than twice the amount in the same period a week ago, sending the FTSE-100 index up as much as 3.8 per cent.
The breakdown left traders in Europe's financial capital in limbo as equities around the world rallied on the US government's takeover of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The LSE, Europe's oldest independent exchange, said attempts to fix its biggest computer failure in more than eight years was "taking longer than expected.''
"The LSE will come out of this very, very badly,'' said Omer Bhatti, head sales trader at WorldSpreads Group Plc in London. "People will begin to think seriously about having alternatives.''
LSE faces competition from as many as seven new competitors, among them Chi-X Europe and Turq-uoise, an electronic market backed by nine investment banks. Chi-X, which started in March last year and now accounts for about 18 per cent of trading in FTSE 100 shares across exchanges, said it handled trades all day. "Many traders will feel morally cheated that they have been unable to conduct their business in response to today's financial news,'' said David Buik, a London-based market analyst at BGC Partners. "The fact that it happened beggars belief.''
The LSE shut for almost eight hours on April 5, 2000, after a problem with the London Market Information Link, a computer system used to connect the exchange with data vendors.
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London and NY tie in finance ranking
By Francesco Guerrera
Published: September 8 2008 23:00 | Last updated: September 8 2008 23:00
London’s efforts to challenge New York as the leading financial centre will receive a boost on Tuesday with a new study by the World Economic Forum showing that the UK ranks alongside the US as the world’s most developed financial system.
The US and the UK come out as joint leaders of the WEF’s first “financial development index”, followed by Germany, Japan, Canada and France.
The index is an attempt to measure the health of the financial systems of 52 countries by looking at factors ranging from the stability of the banking sector to the soundness of the regulatory and political environment.
Venezuela is at the bottom of the index, just below Ukraine and Nigeria, according to the report.
WEF officials say they will present the report, which was led by Nouriel Roubini, a New York university professor, to regulators and bankers around the world over the coming months. They believe the study can help policymakers and industry leaders to improve national financial systems at a time of severe strain by highlighting their respective strengths and weaknesses.
Despite being virtually tied at the top of the index, however, neither the US nor the UK receives full marks from the WEF.
Weaker points for the US include the regulation of security exchanges, the protection of intellectual property rights and the relatively high risk of banking crises – an issue that has come to the fore since the onset of the credit crunch.
Corruption and the regulatory burden are also seen as areas of weakness for the US, the report says.
However, the US edges out the UK at the top of the rankings for financial markets – a finding that will bolster New York’s efforts to present itself as the world’s pre-eminent capital markets hub.
The UK also scores poorly on the regulatory front and is in the bottom half of the index when it comes to corporate taxation and the “cost of doing business” – the price of obtaining licenses and registering property.
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Shell in Iraqi gas deal worth up to $4bn
By Ed Crooks and Roula Khalaf in London
Published: September 8 2008 23:33 | Last updated: September 8 2008 23:33
Royal Dutch Shell is to become the first western oil company to sign a deal with the Iraqi government since the US-led invasion of 2003, agreeing a plan to capture and use gas in the Basra region that could be worth up to $4bn.
It also emerged on Monday that Iraq’s oil ministry had written to oil companies saying it had abandoned its controversial plan to award short-term technical support contracts to a small number of them to work on its oil fields.
Shell’s project is intended to make use of the gas flared off by the oil industry in the south of Iraq. In that region alone, an estimated 700m cubic feet of gas is burned off every day for safety reasons: roughly enough to meet the demand for power generation in the entire country.
The Iraqi government wants Shell to put in the infrastructure to capture that gas and make commercial use of it, both domestically and for export. Assem Jihad, oil ministry spokesman, told the Financial Times that following a green light from the cabinet, the ministry was inviting Shell to Baghdad next month to sign the deal.
“Europe is looking for supplies of gas from Iraq,” said Mr Jihad. “Security used to be a deterrent but now companies feel that security has improved and this will encourage others to come in.”
He added that the project would be run as a joint venture, with Shell taking 49 per cent and the oil ministry 51 per cent. The length and value of the contract have yet to be determined but reports in Iraq suggested it could be worth $3bn-$4bn.
Shell said: “We are delighted with the government’s decision and look forward to signing the agreement in the near future.”
The Shell deal follows news last month that Iraq had revived a big oil deal first negotiated between China and the government of Saddam Hussein, for China National Petroleum Corp to develop the al-Ahdab oilfield.
That deal represented the first important commitment to Iraq by a foreign company since its industry was nationalised in 1972.
However, Iraq has cooled on its plan to sign deals with a few western oil companies, including Shell, ExxonMobil and BP, to offer technical support and advice on its biggest fields.
Mr Assem said that after delays and differences with the companies over the length of contracts, the ministry was now inclined to bypass that stage and focus on longer-term development contracts.
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Western banks get approval to open in Vietnam
HANOI, September 9 - HSBC and Standard Chartered have won approval to be the first foreign banks to open wholly-owned units in Vietnam, as the communist-run state opens up further to foreign investment.
HSBC, Europe’s largest bank which first arrived in Vietnam in 1870, said on Tuesday that it would headquarter its Vietnam-based bank in Ho Chi Minh City, the country’s commercial centre.
“We aim to start operating through our new local entity as early as possible,” said Thomas Tobin, HSBC’s local chief executive, adding HSBC hoped to be the first foreign bank to operate a fully-owned local entity in the fast-growing Vietnamese banking sector.
Separately, the State Bank of Vietnam said it also licensed Standard Chartered to open a wholly-owned bank based in Hanoi and with a capital base of $61m.
“This is a clear sign to show Vietnam’s strong commitment toward WTO,” the central bank said. Vietnam is opening up more to foreign banks as part of its commitments to the World Trade Organisation, which it joined last year.
HSBC and Standard Chartered now have 12 months to start operations in Vietnam, where only 10 per cent of the 86.5m population have bank accounts. State-run Agribank, Vietnam’s biggest enterprise, runs half of the 4,000 bank branches nationwide.
HSBC and Standard Chartered, now operating branches in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, are among nearly 40 foreign banks in the country, all holding between them 14 per cent of market lending.
HSBC Bank Vietnam would have a registered capital of $182m, the State Bank of Vietnam said.
The central bank has said it aimed to keep the country’s credit growth this year at 30 per cent after a surge of 54 per cent in 2007 to control double-digit inflation.
HSBC and Standard Chartered would compete with four Vietnamese state-run banks, the country’s top lenders, while more than half of the 37 partly private banks now in operation are small entities, with total assets of less than $1bn each.
“Local incorporation will allow us to have a broader distribution network to reach existing and new customers,” Mr Tobin said.
Standard Chartered plans to open up to 30 new branches in Vietnam over the next three to four years, Ray Ferguson, Standard Chartered’s regional CEO for Southeast Asia, said in March after the bank won initial approval from the Vietnamese government.
Besides six joint venture banks, more than 20 financial leasing companies and nearly 1,000 small-sized people’s credit funds also operate in Vietnam.
More competition would come from foreign banks, ANZ among them, with a long presence in Vietnam which have been seeking permission to open wholly-owned banks.
Apart from banking activities, HSBC and Standard Chartered have bought stakes in local banks. Hanoi-based Techcombank, Vietnam’s seventh-largest lender by assets, finalised a share sale to HSBC last week for around $77m, increasing HSBC’s stake to 20 per cent, the ceiling for foreign investors in a domestic bank.
HSBC has also acquired 10 per cent of stake in Bao Viet Holdings, Vietnam’s largest insurer.
Standard Chartered owns 15 per cent of Asia Commercial Bank
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Lehman reorganises to refocus outside US
By Chris Hughes in London
Published: September 9 2008 01:20 | Last updated: September 9 2008 01:20
The management reorganisation at Lehman Brothers continued on Monday as the US investment bank appointed two bankers recently recruited from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to run its investment banking division in Europe and the Middle East.
Alexis de Rosnay, who joined Lehman from JPMorgan in 2004, and William Vereker, who arrived the following year from Morgan Stanley, will replace Christian Meissner, who was appointed as European co-chief executive of the bank this weekend.
The pair were among a host of senior bankers recruited from bulge-bracket firms earlier this decade, as Lehman sought to use the last investment banking downturn to take market share from rivals and build a meaningful franchise in Europe.
Mr de Rosnay previously jointly led the healthcare team in the investment bank, while Mr Vereker co-ran the energy team. They will report to Mr Meissner and the investment bank’s other newly appointed co-chief executive in Europe, Riccardo Banchetti.
The promotions came as Lehman staff adjusted to the weekend’s far-reaching management reshuffle at the bank, which saw Jeremy Isaacs stand down as the bank’s chief executive for its non-US businesses, a position he had held since 2000, having joined the firm in 1996.
Mr Meissner, 39, and Mr Banchetti, 42, have a curious inheritance from Mr Isaacs, a former Goldman Sachs executive who spearheaded Lehman’s expansion in Europe in recent years. Mr Isaacs cast Lehman as a nimble upstart keen to challenge the complacency of the larger bulge-bracket investment banks that dominate the region. The strategy was part of an attempt to diversify the business away from its core US fixed-income franchise by building up a counterbalancing business in equities, mergers and acquisitions.
Mr Isaacs’s achievements as chief executive include taking the bank to the leading position in equity trading on the London Stock Exchange, investing heavily in electronic trading systems that exploited the shift in the business to a high-volume, low-margin business as investors, in particular hedge funds, slice and dice trades. Under Mr Isaacs, Lehman also crept up the tables in investment banking, and had started to use its equity trading franchise as a platform on which to build a corporate broking business.
However, Lehman never gained sufficient scale and diversity to be able to weather the credit crisis without pain. Its shares have collapsed in recent months amid fears that it needs to raise fresh capital and doubts over the viability of its business model. Attempts to find partners willing to inject capital into the business have yet to produce results. Its shares fell nearly 13 per cent on Monday, even as the rest of the sector rallied on the US government’s intervention to support Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
That has overshadowed the achievements of Lehman’s European investment banking businesses unaffected by the subprime crisis – making them something of a sideshow to the bigger challenges facing the firm.
Colleagues on Monday welcomed the appointments of Mr Meissner, also a former Goldman Sachs banker, and Mr Banchetti, saying they thought the creation of a “double-act” was sensible. Mr Meissner, a quietly spoken and somewhat cool individual, has a strong reputation as a relationship banker, while Mr Banchetti’s background is in fixed income capital markets.
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Invasion’s ideologues: Ultra-nationalists join the Russian mainstream
By Charles Clover in Moscow
Published: September 8 2008 20:09 | Last updated: September 8 2008 20:09
A decade ago, many of the most influential thinkers in today’s Russia were in the intellectual wilderness. While some sat in pamphlet-littered basements churning out copies of underground ultra-rightwing newspapers with names such as Lightning and Russian Order, others were in jail following failed coups in 1991 and 1993 against the pro-western “occupation regimes” of Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin.
Russia’s intellectual journey since then has been dizzying, as the radical has become mainstream and the hardline position increasingly moderate-sounding, with what were the margins emerging as the political centre.
Below: Europe worries that Kremlin sights may be on Ukraine
Now, against the backdrop of conflict in Georgia and deteriorating relations with the west, Russia’s ultra-nationalist thinkers are starting to exert unprecedented influence. The wide acceptance of a group of ideas once dismissed as laughable signals a new era in Russia’s foreign relations, as Moscow seeks to protect what President Dmitry Medvedev calls a “region of privileged interest” in parts of the former Soviet Union.
Rising nationalist opinion could also mean bigger defence budgets and a race to modernise Russia’s military as well a presaging a yet more nationalist approach to economic policy. The government is coming under increasing pressure to invest the country’s oil wealth at home rather than abroad and could even respond to international criticism of the war in Georgia by pre-emptively imposing trade restrictions on the US.
The war not only boosted the prestige of the military, which enjoyed its first successful campaign in a generation. It has also enhanced the reputations of a narrow group of ultra-nationalist thinkers who prophesied the coming clash with the west. Today’s Russia, willing to press its national objectives with military force, unconcerned with the erosion of democracy and dismissive of world opinion, was foretold a decade ago in inky manifestos and in lecture halls full of bearded radicals straight out of Dostoevsky.
“I am convinced that now, following the war, there will be a huge shift in the balance of power within the Russian elite,” says Aleksander Dugin, leader of the Eurasian Movement, a prominent far-right group.
Aleksander Dugin: Author of the influential 1997 book The Foundations of Geopolitics, which he wrote in conjunction with a general from the Academy of the General Staff. In it, he theorised that Russia, the earth’s largest land power, was the natural antagonist to the “Atlantic world” of the US and Britain. He heads the Eurasian Movement, devoted to that philosophy, and has helped translate European “new right” authors into Russian. He has been a professor at Moscow State University and now has a weekly radio show.
Mr Dugin has seen a remarkable improvement in his fortunes since the days in the early 1990s when he worked out of a basement flat in a gritty central Moscow district penning works on the metaphysics of Christianity. He went on to become a television talk show host and a professor at Moscow State University. Now he has a radio show on the Kremlin-supported 107 FM.
“The people that formed the centre under [former president, now prime minister Vladimir] Putin will now become marginal. And another pole will appear that did not exist under Putin at all. That is the army, the military and patriotic movements. That is us. Under Putin we were the extremists: respectable, yes, but radicals. Now we are moving right into the centre,” he says.
Not everyone shares Mr Dugin’s view, but the newly ascendant nationalism is likely to bring new ideas into Russia’s mainstream. These form no less than the basis of a looming ideological clash between Russia and the west. “Political momentum has been shifting in [the ultra-nationalists’] direction for quite some time. One could argue that the incursion into Georgia was something new, but it was building on a momentum that we have been seeing,” says John Dunlop from Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.
Viktor Erofeev, a well-known author and one of a small and shrinking minority of Russians who question the reasons for the war against Georgia, attributes the wave of patriotism to a widespread “cult of power”. In a recent radio debate, Mr Erofeev described it as “the joy of victory, in sport, in politics, but also in war. It is an archaic form of self-consciousness ... [that] has remained with us, where it has disappeared in more civilised countries.”
Amid the bombast about reimposition of Tsarist rule, the reconstitution of the Soviet Union or Russian empire and banishing Washington’s influence from the region, the new right does have a philosophical bone to pick with the west, which proclaims the “universality” of democracy and human rights and makes the US ready to defend and promote these goals throughout the world – by military force if necessary.
Russia’s opposition to “unipolar domination” by Washington is tied to the view pushed by the thinkers of the new right that such universal truths are an illusion, that their nation and civilisation form a unique “whole” that has a right to existence. That this ideological approach has penetrated to the Kremlin can be seen in a now famous speech in Munich in February 2007 by Mr Putin, in which the then president said he considered the unipolar model “not only unacceptable but also impossible in today’s world”. The model was flawed, he argued, because “at its basis there is and can be no moral foundation for modern civilisation”. It was a speech that was labelled by some commentators as the start of a new “cold war” with the west.
Russia’s insistence on the right to “sovereign democracy”, a phrase of Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin’s top ideologist, can also be traced to this philosophical opposition to moral absolutes. Mr Surkov argues that each nation has the right to practise democracy in its own “sovereign” way, which rationalises in theoretical terms the fact that Russian democracy is not very democratic at all.
Dmitry Rogozin: Elected to Russia’s lower house of parliament in 1997, he co-headed the ultra-nationalist Rodina (Motherland) party from 2003. Rodina, a Kremlin-backed nationalist party, was designed to draw votes away from the powerful Communist party, which has been in constant opposition to the Kremlin. Mr Rogozin was removed as a leader of the party in 2006 after losing an internal power struggle. In January 2008 he was named Russia’s ambassador to Nato.
Many ultra-nationalists already walk the corridors of power: Dmitry Rogozin, former head of the Rodina (Motherland) party, is Russia’s ambassador to Nato. The Duma, or parliament, has also been a hive of activity of radical nationalists since the mid-1990s, regularly featuring the rantings of arch-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
While their liberal western-oriented counterparts spent the decade following the collapse of communism learning the economic theories of Milton Friedman or reading up on the Council of Europe, the venerable organisation dedicated to promoting human rights, Russia’s nationalists were studying the Orthodox church, mugging up on French postmodernism or simply “drinking beer, playing chess and lifting dumbbells”, as Valery Korovin, leader of the Eurasian Youth Movement, puts it.
Russia’s military and “special services” such as the former KGB, now FSB, have long had a mysterious connection to these ultra-rightwing groups. The rising stature of the siloviki, as the former uniformed men are known, has accompanied a rise in the prestige of rightwing philosophy. While serving officers tend to keep their political leanings to themselves, several retired officers took on a high profile in the media during the Georgian war and their prestige is only likely to increase with the success of the military campaign.
Aleksander Prokhanov, editor of the radical rightwing Tomorrow newspaper and known as the “nightingale of the general staff” for his close links to Russia’s top brass, predicts a political crisis between pro-western and nationalist political factions. After the military victory in the Caucasus, the nationalists will need to guard against political setbacks at home, he says. That requires “very fast changes – social, political, economic and ideological” in Russia, in which the main opponent will be the new pro-western elite “who are loath to give up their assets in the west”.
The event that gave the new right much of its popularity was Russia’s agonising decade of economic collapse following the end of communism: that destroyed the credibility of liberal democratic reformers. In addition, the US campaign against Russia’s ally Serbia in 1999 sparked a sea- change in public opinion.
Aleksander Prokhanov: One of the original nationalist writers to emerge in the Soviet Union in the 1970s, he is now editor of Tomorrow newspaper and a close friend of many of Russia’s top generals. Those include Field Marshal Dmitry Yazov, who planned the 1991 coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev, which ultimately failed. He is a successful fiction author and is often featured on television and radio programmes representing rightwing views.
Following the collapse of the USSR in 1991, opinion polls showed nationalism was a phenomenon associated primarily with lower-income groups, while the upper echelons of society saw imitation of the west in all things, from democracy to liberal economics, as desirable. But already in 2001, a study by the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow noticed a new “ideology” among the middle and upper class – previously the “agents of modernisation”. A majority had come to see Nato as a hostile force and the break-up of the Soviet Union as a mistake. Most viewed Russia as belonging to a unique civilisation separate from the west.
Under Mr Putin’s eight-year presidency, the popularity of rightwing ideas grew as he deployed belligerent rhetoric and used Kremlin resources to sponsor groups such as Nashi, the youth movement organised by Mr Surkov. Mr Putin, and Mr Medvedev after him, adorned the presidency with the trappings of empire – regularly featuring the orthodox cross of Tsarist Russia and the red star of Soviet might.
Today, Russia’s ideological transformation is complete, if contradictory. Just like in the 19th century, when Russia’s armies fought against Napoleon while its aristocracy spoke French, today’s Russian elite embraces a confusing agenda: Nato is considered a hostile force and they support the war in Georgia, but they still prefer holidaying in the west, owning property there and sending their children to British private schools.
However, analysts caution that public support for Kremlin policies is not unconditional. More than on patriotism and national pride, public approval for Mr Putin is based on his – and now Mr Medvedev’s – presidency delivering higher living standards. Dmitri Simes of the Washington based Nixon Center says there are limits to the sacrifices people will make: “They don’t want to be cut off from the west, they don’t want to be isolated or ostracised.” Russians do not want to increase military spending in a way that would compete with or threaten other national priorities, he says.
“Mr Putin was so hugely popular not just because of his national security credentials but because, under him, Russians began to live much better. But a new cold war, a new arms race, would threaten all that.”
EUROPE WORRIES THAT KREMLIN SIGHTS MAY BE ON UKRAINE
Russia’s invasion of Georgia and its attempt to partition the country by recognising the enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent have prompted concern across the European Union about what else might be in the Kremlin’s sights. Anxiety is mounting that it could ultimately be Ukraine.
With 46m people, of whom 18 per cent are ethnic Russians, and a territory almost the size of France, Ukraine is shaping up as the crucial geopolitical battleground between Moscow and the west. “Ukraine is Georgia multiplied by 10,” says Michael Emerson of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels think-tank.
There is particular concern about Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, where Russia’s Black Sea fleet is based, with a lease that expires in 2017. Ethnic Russians form a majority of Crimea’s population and pro-Russian politicians nostalgic for the Soviet era are a powerful force. Thousands of Crimeans hold Russian passports, offering an excuse for Moscow to intervene in the peninsula as it did in South Ossetia last month.
“All that provides Moscow with a leverage of influence over the peninsula and a pretext for taking an interest in Ukraine,” says Vsevolod Samokhvalov, a former visiting fellow at the EU’s Institute for Security Studies.
The need to put EU-Ukrainian relations on a firmer basis will dominate discussions this Tuesday in Paris between Viktor Yushchenko (right), Ukraine’s president, and EU leaders including Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, and José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission chief, both fresh from Moscow. “If the summit fails, it will send a negative message to Georgia, Belarus and Moldova. Everyone in our region is watching closely what will happen,” says Kostyantyn Yeliseyev, the Ukrainian deputy foreign minister responsible for EU relations.
But in the light of Russia’s disregard for Georgia’s territorial integrity, is the EU ready not just to express solidarity with Kiev but to offer a clear path to EU membership – something it has shrunk from in the 17 years since Ukraine won independence from the Soviet Union? In Paris, to bitter Ukrainian disappointment, no such offer will be made. The EU is divided, with Poland and Sweden among the most fervent supporters of Kiev’s aspirations but older EU members, notably Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany, more hesitant.
“We have lots to do to reinforce ties with Ukraine, without possible accession,” Mr Sarkozy said after an EU summit last week.
Central and eastern European countries that joined the EU between 2004 and 2007 fear that the longer Ukraine is kept in limbo, the more Russia will be tempted to wrench it closer into the Kremlin’s sphere of influence – an outcome that would have grave implications for their own region.
“Neither we in the EU nor the Ukrainians are ready for membership tomorrow, but we should offer them a membership perspective,” says one government minister of a former Soviet bloc country.
Since 2004, the EU has dealt with Ukraine through its European Neighbourhood Policy, of which officials in Kiev take a dim view: it groups Ukraine with non-European places such as Algeria, Libya and Syria. “The events in Georgia proved that the ENP has completely failed. We have been saying for years that the ENP is nothing,” Mr Yeliseyev says.
Last June, EU leaders endorsed a Polish-Swedish proposal for an “Eastern Partnership” project, under which relations with Ukraine – as well as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and, subject to domestic reforms, Belarus – were to be given special attention. The partnership plan is likely to be accorded higher priority after Russia’s assault on Georgia. This will mean faster action on a free trade accord and on easier travel for Ukrainians to the EU. The route to a trade deal was opened in May when Ukraine joined the World Trade Organisation – a status Russia still lacks.
Yet in commercial terms, Russia is a far more important partner than Ukraine for the EU – and Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas supplies makes it improbable that this will change. The EU accounts for 70 per cent of Ukraine’s foreign direct investment but this amounted to only €5.5bn ($7.8bn, £4.4bn) in 2006.
“The main obstacles faced by EU investors so far have been frequent changes in regulations, lack of transparency, failings in implementation and enforcement of laws, discriminatory regulation and corruption,” says a European Commission paper.
Such problems are not the only argument cited by certain EU countries as a reason to withhold an explicit offer of membership from Ukraine. Another is the country’s sheer size – it would be one of the EU’s five or six biggest by population, forcing a complete rethink of the bloc’s agricultural and regional aid policies.
A third issue is Ukraine’s seemingly endless political instability. Only last week, the ruling coalition split up in acrimony and Mr Yushchenko threatened to call a snap election. “The Ukrainians are their own worst enemy,” sighs one EU foreign minister.
On the other hand, Ukraine has made huge strides since the 2004 Orange Revolution, with a political culture founded on pluralism and free elections. For all their similarities in language, customs and history, Ukraine appears set on a path different from that of Russia with its more authoritarian habits.
This poses perhaps the greatest challenge to the Kremlin. As Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former US national security adviser, observed in 1997: “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.”
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`Overvalued' Pound to Fall 20% as Darling Despairs (Update4)
By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Bo Nielsen
Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Currency traders are starting to take the British government at its word, putting the tumbling pound on course for the worst year since 1992.
The pound is about 20 percent too strong against the dollar, even after falling more than 10 percent this year, according to New York-based International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the world's biggest currency hedge-fund company. Futures traders became more bearish on the U.K. currency than at any time in the past 16 years.
Britain's steepest housing slump in 18 years prompted Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling to tell the nation it faces the biggest slowdown since World War II. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth month last week to curb inflation that accelerated to 4.4 percent in July, more than twice the central bank's target. During the two previous times the economy cooled since 1997, the pound fell as much as 19 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The pound may be ``massively overvalued against the dollar,'' said John Taylor, who oversees $14.6 billion as chief executive officer of FX Concepts in New York. ``They're going to have to go for a cut. I don't know who they think they're kidding by holding out.''
Most Since Soros
Twelve percent weaker this year, the pound's slide has taken investors and strategists by surprise. The currency ended last week at $1.7661, below the year-end median forecast of $1.85 by 35 firms surveyed by Bloomberg. The last time it fell this much in a year was 16 years ago, when George Soros earned more than $1 billion speculating against the currency and the economy was emerging from its last recession. The pound fell to $1.7570 as of 3:49 p.m. in New York.
In the past two decades, the five major sell-offs in the pound averaged about 22 percent from peak to trough against the dollar, according to Bloomberg calculations. Since reaching a 26-year high of $2.1161 on Nov. 9, the currency depreciated 16 percent.
The pound's battering continued last week, after Darling, in an Aug. 30 interview with the Guardian newspaper, said Britain faces ``arguably the worst'' slump in more than 60 years. While Darling said the next day his comments had been misinterpreted, and that he had been referring to the global economy, Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA, took him at his word.
``There is no relief out there,'' said Redeker, whose firm was the most accurate forecaster in a 2007 Bloomberg survey. ``A part of the government is giving up hope of this economy doing better in the next couple of years. That tells us a lot.'' The pound will weaken another 2.6 percent by year-end to $1.72, according to BNP Paribas.
Stalling Growth
The U.K.'s longest expansion in more than a century stalled in the second quarter as the economy posted zero growth. House prices fell in August at the fastest annual pace in at least 25 years, HBOS Plc, the nation's biggest mortgage lender, said Sept. 4. The economy will grow 1.4 percent this year and 0.9 percent in 2009, down from 3 percent last year, according to the median of 29 economists' forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
Until June, the U.K. had clocked up 63 straight quarters of growth as soaring property values fueled consumer spending, propelling former Prime Minister Tony Blair's Labour Party to three election victories. That imploded as credit markets seized up amid the U.S. subprime-mortgage crisis, leading to the first run on a British bank in more than a century when Northern Rock Plc collapsed. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, formerly Chancellor under Blair, nationalized Northern Rock in February.
`Looks Expensive'
``The past weeks and months you have clearly seen the deterioration in growth in the U.K,'' said Andrew Balls, an executive vice president and member of the investment committee of Newport, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees almost $830 billion. ``The pound still looks expensive.''
Traders have amassed a net 47,285 futures contracts betting on a pound decline, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington showed on Sept. 5. That's the most since at least 1992 and compares with 1,460 wagers on a stronger pound at the end of July.
So quickly has the pound slumped, some technical indicators used to predict changes in direction are signaling a rebound is in the cards.
`Fallen Too Far'
Trading envelopes, which measure how far from the mean a price has strayed, show the pound's decline is more than double the typical changes versus the dollar in the past 20 days. The pound's 14-day relative strength index against the dollar averaged 13 last week, below the level of 30 that signals an imminent gain. The last time the index averaged below 20 was in the week ended March 8, 1985. The pound strengthened 21 percent versus the dollar in the following six weeks.
``For the moment sterling has arguably fallen too far compared to current rate expectation,'' said Michael Metcalfe, the London-based head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, which has $14 trillion under custody.
Traders have increased bets the Bank of England will cut interest rates. A Credit Suisse Group index of probability derived from overnight indexed swap rates showed 30 percent odds of a 25 basis-point reduction in the main U.K. lending rate at the Oct. 9 meeting. As recently as July 23, they showed 28 percent odds of an increase. The central bank left its key rate at 5 percent last week.
``Outside of the U.S., the U.K. is where you've seen the most acute impact of the credit crunch on the real economy,'' said Adam Boyton, a senior strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank AG, the biggest currency trader in 2007, according to Euromoney Institutional Investor Plc.
A decline in the U.K. currency to $1.50 by July 2009 is a ``fairly reasonable'' possibility, said Taylor at FX Concepts. Against the euro, the pound may be overvalued by between 5 percent and 10 percent, he said.
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