Dollar swims against tide of volatility

Dollar swims against tide of volatility

By Peter Garnham

Published: September 1 2008 17:49 | Last updated: September 1 2008 17:49

After a volatile first eight months of the year, currency investors are expecting a smoother ride for the dollar into the year end.

The dollar sold off sharply against the euro in the first half of the year as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to head off an economic slowdown. It then hit a record low in July as the European Central Bank, unexpectedly, raised interest rates in a bid to tame inflationary pressures.

But the dollar has rallied strongly since then, and analysts now believe the dollar has carved out a bottom against the single currency.

Two developments have boosted the dollar.

First, in July, the US Treasury made it clear that it would stand behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the state-sponsored mortgage providers, easing concerns over the US financial system.

Second, economic data from the eurozone deteriorated, removing any lingering expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates again. Now, like the Federal Reserve, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates on hold into 2009.

However, the difference – and the factor underlying expectations for a continued strong performance in the dollar – is that while the Fed’s next move will probably be to raise interest rates, investors are expecting the ECB to cut them.

“We expect the dollar to continue its nascent recovery in the final third of the year,” says Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman.

The dollar is not just expected to continue its gains against the euro, however. It has risen against all other leading currencies over the past month amid increasing signs that the effects of the credit crisis were spreading more quickly across the globe than previously thought.

This has pushed markets to expect interest rate cuts from the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada.

Indeed, the only main central bank not expected to cut interest rates is the Bank of Japan, which, with rates currently at an ultra-low level of 0.5 per cent, has little room for manoeuvre anyway.

Some analysts are cautious about the dollar’s prospects, however. John Normand at JPMorgan says the rotation theme that has driven currencies this year is entering round three.

He says whereas the first two quarters of the year were focused on risks to US growth, and the third quarter on the slowdown outside the US, the focus for the rest of the year is likely to tilt back towards problems in the US again.

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End of an era for entrepreneurs

By Jonathan Guthrie, Enterprise Editor

Published: September 1 2008 18:10 | Last updated: September 1 2008 18:51

The stock of small businesses in England and Wales could drop by as much as 150,000 by early 2010, according to Barclays, blowing the froth off the UK’s enterprise culture. The ardour of would-be entrepreneurs has already been damped by tighter credit and tougher trading conditions, the bank reports.

“We will probably see the [business] stock fall by up to 150,000 in the course of the downswing,” said Richard Roberts, head of small and medium-sized enterprise analysis at Barclays. “Growth has already stopped – closures have been higher than start-ups for some time.”

His forecast covers ventures large enough to have business bank accounts. These have risen in number to about 2.85m in response to steady growth and low interest rates.

The prediction, which Barclays will make at an enterprise conference on Wednesday, is further bad news on business for Gordon Brown, a vocal champion of entrepreneurs. Ministers have used record growth in small enterprises of all kinds – to a total of 4.7m in the UK at the end of last year according to their own statistics – as a vindication of government policies.

The mood is now turning sour as conditions for start-ups deteriorate.

Kat Callo, who quit an executive career in 2002 to found Rosetta Consulting, a specialist property company, said: “Many young people and corporate employees who were thinking of establishing their own business are deciding not to. It is a sobering time.”

Rebecca Harding of Delta Economics, an enterprise economist, predicted the percentage of Britons either setting up in business or planning to do so would fall half a percentage point to just under 6 per cent. She forecast more start-ups would close ignominiously after two to three years, saying: “You see huge attrition at that stage – around one-third of the total – and that could be going up substantially.”

Entrepreneurship is losing some of its glamour as high-profile start-ups tumble into financial difficulties. An example is Pepita Diamand, a former fashion journalist selected by Management Today as one of 35 young businesswomen to watch in 2006. Her wedding presents company Wrapit recently went into administration, leaving couples without gifts and guests out of pocket.

Mr Roberts said there would, however, be fewer business failures than in the recession of the early 1990s. Company liquidations jumped by almost 15,000 to 24,000 between 1989 and 1992 as economic growth faltered. He said: “In the early nineties there was a larger number of new companies with heavy debts, which were often overdrafts repayable on demand.” These days, small businesses have total deposits equivalent to their total debts, having shared in the recent bonanza in corporate earnings.

Ms Harding said the ability of many entrepreneurs to raise funds had been hit by the fall in the value of the homes used as collateral. Owners of small businesses report that banks are increasingly zealous in pursuing interest payments. At the same time, big customers are squeezing small suppliers by honouring invoices ever later.

Has the “enterprise revolution”, as the CBI employers’ body dubbed the government-led popularisation of small business, run out of steam? Harry Rich, chief executive of Enterprise In-sight, which co-ordinates Enterprise Week, an annual national festival, thinks not.

“Enterprise is more important than ever in tough economic times,” he said. “All the external drivers, such as the need to move away from an old-style manufacturing-based economy, are still there.”

But among entrepreneurs, ambition is now strongly tempered with apprehension. The sense that an era is ending is unmistakeable.

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Gaddafi extols virtues of capitalist reforms

By Heba Saleh in Cairo

Published: September 1 2008 18:22 | Last updated: September 1 2008 18:22

Colonel Muammer Gaddafi, the Libyan leader, pledged to introduce free-market measures by the beginning of next year in an unprecedented speech extolling the virtues of capitalism.

“After four months, everything will be in your hands,” he told Libyans. “Do not be scared ... begin discussing this issue and prepare yourself ... because this is a crucial and inescapable matter.”

The leader, who on Monday celebrated the 39th anniversary of the coup which brought him to power, has presided for almost all these years over an economy controlled by the state, allowing only a small private sector which often came under pressure to limit its growth.

The state still exerts enormous control, although recent years have seen efforts to diversify the economy and encourage private sector participation.

“Laws have been amended to make it easier for Libyans to go into joint ventures with foreign investors,” said a Libyan businessman. “Also banking has improved and we now have branches of foreign banks.”

Libya’s oil and gas exports are the mainstay of the economy and this revenue remains firmly in the hands of the government.

But now Mr Gaddafi appears to be preparing his country’s people for a smaller state role in the provision of services such as health and education.

“The money that we put in the education budget, I say let the Libyan people take it,” he said. “Put it in your pockets and teach your kids as you wish, you take responsibility.”

He also said consumers would be able to demand better services from the private companies which will now provide telephone and electricity services.

This is all a far cry from Mr Gaddafi’s views in even the recent past.

The man who shaped Libyan society for four decades had for a long time abhorred private property. There were restrictions on the formation of private companies and Libyan families were only allowed one piece of property – and could not rent it out to anyone else.

At one point during his rule Mr Gaddafi ordered all retail outlets closed and replaced them with huge government-owned stores, which later closed and shops were allowed to reopen.

The Libyan leader has often been criticised for using Libya’s oil wealth to fund rebel movements and militant organisations like the Irish Republican Army and to buy influence in Africa, especially during the years when his country was constrained under United Nations sanctions.

Now, however, he has warned his people of the dangers of leaving control of their wealth to the state.

“As long as money is administered by a government body, there would be theft and corruption,” said Mr Gaddafi. “When we apply this system [capitalism], we will not worry about anything else. But if we do not establish it, it would be dangerous and would leave things in the hands of the ruler.”

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Italy vow paves way for Libya investment

By Guy Dinmore in Rome and Heba Saleh

Published: September 1 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 1 2008 03:00

Italy's pledge to pay Libya compensation for its colonial rule paves the way for further Italian investments, such as in energy and infrastructure, but raises uncomfortable issues for former colonial powers in Africa.

In a tent outside Benghazi on Saturday, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's centre-right prime minister, returned a headless statue of Venus carted away by Italians decades ago and signed a friendship pact with Muammer Gaddafi, the Libyan leader.

The agreement, in which Italy pledges to pay $5bn (€3.4bn, £2.75bn) over 25 years in reparations through various projects - including a highway across Libya from Egypt to Tunisia - follows a decade of difficult negotiations under a succession of Italian governments.

Mr Berlusconi, on his second visit to Libya since returning to office in May, apologised for the wrongs committed under Italian colonial rule, from 1911 to 1943. Historians say Italian forces were responsible for upto 100,000 Libyan deaths, many in desert prison camps.

"We have written a page in history. Now we will have fewer illegal immigrants leaving from the coast of Libya and coming to us, and more Libyan oil and gas," declared Mr Berlusconi, according to Italian reports.

Italy is Libya's biggest trading partner, importing gas via a pipeline to Sicily and developing oilfields. According to Italian officials, who did not wish to be named, Libya also "exports" large numbers of illegal immigrants to Italy by boat, facilitating the dangerous voyages in which many die.

Mr Berlusconi may have set an important precedent in negotiating energy-driven diplomatic deals. In June Eni, the oil and gas company part-owned by the Italian state, also set the tone for the rest of industry by accepting worse terms from Libya in return for 35 more years of access to one of the world's most important reserves. Russia is also seeking to expand in Libya and build another gas pipeline to Europe. Significantly, Mr Berlusconi was joined in Benghazi by Sergei Ivanov, Russia's deputy premier.

Condoleezza Rice is due to visit Libya, the first US secretary of state to do so

for 25 years, confirming Mr Gaddafi's rehabilitation since the payment of reparations for the 1988 bombing of a Pan Am flight over Scotland, and his renunciation of plans to develop weapons of mass destruction.

Reparations for colonial misrule are not new but are often couched differently, such as the billions of dollars Japan loaned to China in the 1980s.

However, Italy's apology to Libya and its agreement to a "compensation" package marks the first time in the Arab world that a former colonial power has agreed to pay for its occupation.

"The Libyans feel they were very badly treated and this is still an issue," said Oliver Miles, deputy chairman of the Libyan British Business Council. "But, having said that, I think one has to look at the $5bn figure with a sceptical eye."

He said both Libyan and Italian explanations of the figure "were vague" and referred to investments rather than payments. "I think there is an element of smoke and mirrors," said Mr Miles. "I see it as the two governments here seeking to thicken the commercial relationship between them."

Mr Gaddafi's insistence on reparations from Italy is a way of saving face at home, some analysts believe. Mr Berlusconi also faces an angry reaction from the estimated 20,000 Italians, most of them Jews, who were deported by Libya in 1970.

Algeria has repeatedly sought an apology from France for its 132 years of occupation that ended in 1962 after a fierce independence struggle, during which Algeria's official history says 1.5m Algerians were killed.

Last year Nicolas Sarkozy, president of France, said that an apology was unnecessary and both countries should look to the future rather than the past.

"What happened in Libya could spur the Algerians to renew their demand to an apology," said Abdennasser Jabi, an Algerian sociologist. "Here there is consensus on the popular level that an apology is needed, though not on the political level. French interests in Algeria are too huge and there are some in power and in the opposition who do not want to anger the French."

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Too much peace in the valley for Lebanon

By Ferry Biedermann in Bhamdoun

Published: September 1 2008 18:10 | Last updated: September 1 2008 18:10

The open-air restaurant offers a spectacular view of Lebanon’s La Martine valley and green hillsides sloping up to the Christian villages outside Beirut. Late afternoon is the time for families, mostly from Gulf countries, to sit in the cool mountain air, have a snack, smoke water pipes and survey the unfamiliar green distance.

“It is nice here but we will probably not come back,” says Manal al-Otaibi from Saudi Arabia, who is sipping tea with eight members of her family. It is their first time in Lebanon, after holidays in the US and Europe. “We are a bit disappointed. We thought everything would be more modern, more developed.”

Mrs Otaibi’s comments illustrate a dilemma for Lebanon’s famous mountain resorts. Tourists from the Gulf want to avoid the complicated visa process for the US and Europe, but expect a certain level of facilities and service.

Before Ramadan the big hotels in places such as Bhamdoun, Aley, Broumana and Beit Meri had been fully booked since early July. Many more people come and stay in furnished apartments and private houses.

Pierre Ashkar, mayor of Broumana, owns the five-star Printania in the town and other hotels in Beirut. After the instability of recent years, Lebanon faces “a couple of snags”, he says in his office in the hotel.

“A lot of the qualified staff have left, often for the Gulf. Now we have to replace them and train a lot of people. We were not ready.”

The only people who can do the job are local Lebanese recruits, he says. “They are the only ones able to give the kind of service that people have come to expect.”

What attracts people to the mountains are the crisp, cool mountain air, the views and the greenery. Many Lebanese abandon Beirut and coastal areas during the long, humid summer to come here.

People in the mountains recall how in the 1950s and 1960s many people from the Arab world spent summer in the grand old hotels. Then, most visitors came from Iraq, Egypt and Jordan, and they were less religious than people from the Gulf, which is sometimes an issue.

Broumana, a mostly Christian town, wants to maintain its character, Mr Ashkar says. Several years ago a group of people from the Gulf approached him about building a mosque in the town. He persuaded them that “now is not the time”.

The town is aiming not for the mass market but for “quality” tourists, Mr Ashkar says. He has enlisted a group of Gulf citizens who own houses in Broumana to vet requests. “They also like Broumana the way it is.”

Bhamdoun and Aley, where most inhabitants are from the Druze minority (see picture above), have several mosques, however. “It is important to make the people who visit us feel at home,” says Samir Kassis, secretary of the municipality of Aley.

He recalls the heyday of Arab tourism in Aley and the other mountain towns, before the 1975-90 civil war. Aley hosted Arab leaders, such as King Hussein of Jordan, Habib Bourguiba, former president of Tunisia, and the shah of Iran. The family of the emir of Kuwait still owns a house in the town, he says.

The Jubeili hotel, a grand pile in the centre of town, is derelict and scheduled to be demolished. Aley’s famous Tanios hotel was torn down to make room for a modern high-rise.

“Times were different back then and so were the guests. It was all more cosmopolitan,” Mr Kassis says. There was also more entertainment, something sorely lacking in Aley today. The casino was closed after the civil war. “Gambling is now illegal,” he says.

It is not as if modern-day visitors from the Gulf do not crave old-fashioned diversions. One restaurateur in Bhamdoun says most male Gulf diners order alcohol, even if they are with their families. “But they want it served in a teapot and in teacups,” he says.

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Overbanked and overcrowded

Published: September 1 2008 19:21 | Last updated: September 1 2008 19:21

After years of merger talk, Germany finally has a new heavy-weight bank: Commerzbank’s acquisition of Dresdner Bank from Allianz, the insurer, provides a rare example of consolidation in a sector still dominated by publicly owned small-scale banks. The deal, however, is unlikely to precipitate an overhaul of Germany’s banking sector soon. That is unfortunate.

Split three ways between commercial, public and co-operative banks, German retail banking is oversupplied and margins are slim. Costs need to be cut. However, consolidation is difficult because German states want to keep their stakes in local Landesbanken, which together with savings and co-operative banks dominate the retail sector.

Struggling to make money at home, Deutsche Bank redefined itself as a global investment bank. Smaller banks also diversified away from their core business, some unwisely into risky assets including mortgage-backed securities and credit derivatives. Too often, their managers have lacked insight and experience, leading to spectacular losses at IKB and Sachsen LB during the global credit squeeze.

These losses resulted in the take­overs of IKB and Sachsen LB by, respectively, Lone Star, a US private equity firm, and LB Baden-Württemberg. But at a cost to the German taxpayer: the state of Saxony guarantees some of Sachsen LB’s riskier assets, while IKB was bailed out with public money before being sold. Size does not automatically lead to better judgment but it should help profitability in the banks’ core markets, making them less susceptible to risky endeavours.

The new bank that rises from the merger between Commerzbank and Dresdner is expected to scale down Dresdner’s battered investment banking operations. It will focus on small and medium-sized companies. If synergies mean that the merged bank can offer better service at reduced cost while raising profitability, the Mittelstand companies that form the backbone of the German economy stand to benefit.

This may raise the pressure on smaller banks to a point where consolidation can be put off no longer. But the integration of Commerzbank and Dresdner will take time: only in 2012 will the closure of 300 of the combined 1,500 branches be completed, and job losses are scheduled to begin in 2011.

Small banks have chosen creativity over consolidation. The credit squeeze has now forced some to merge. But if the politicians do not allow reforms of the Landesbanken, that process will lose steam before Germany has the competitive banking system it deserves.

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Romania in island dispute with Ukraine

By Thomas Escritt in Bucharest

Published: September 2 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 2 2008 03:00

Legend may have it that the dead Achilles was brought to rest on Serpents' Island alongside his lover Patroclus, but in the intervening millennia this speck of rock in the Black Sea, dozens of kilometres from the nearest landfall, has rarely experienced the bustleseen today.

The island, which belongs to Ukraine, sits at the apex of a 12m sq km triangle of seabed that contains an estimated 10m tonnes of oil and 100bn cu m of gas reserves, and its presence as an outcrop of Ukrainian territory in international waters has direct bearing on the outcome of a case before the International Court of Justice in The Hague.

The dispute centres on mineral exploitation rights in the sea. But for the island, Romania would have exclusive access to much of those reserves.

Romania currently imports 5.25bn cu m of natural gas a year so the untapped reserves in the area could meet almost 20 years of import demand.

Deserted for many years, the island, which is less than a kilometre across, now has 100 inhabitants, including members of a scientific exhibition.

The status of the island may be decisive in the ruling, since according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, rocks that cannot sustain human habitation have no impact on a state's exclusive economic zones. Even the recent flurry of activity is irrelevant, the Romanian government argues.

"Development measures undertaken by the Ukrainian authorities on Serpents' Island have always been regarded by Romania as having no effect in the delimitation process," according to a Romanian government briefing. Ukraine disputes Romania's claims.

International maritime law ordinarily grants countries a 200km exclusive econ-omic zone beyond their shores. But this would be impossible in the case of the Black Sea, which is only 600km across at its widest.

The island itself belonged to Romania until 1948, when sovereignty was transferred to the Soviet Union. Romania renounced any claim to the island as part of a neighbourhood treaty signed with Ukraine in 1997. The same treaty brought to a halt explorations in the gas field that both countries had been carrying out since the late 1960s. Nonetheless, the island will play a decisive role in the dispute.

"What the court might examine is whether the presence of Serpents' Island influences the delineation line," said Bogdan Aurescu, Romania's advocate in the case before the ICJ.

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KDB in talks with Lehman

SEOUL, Sept 2 – State-owned Korea Development Bank (KDB) confirmed on Tuesday that it was in talks with Lehman Brothers for a possible investment in the troubled U.S. bank, but other reports said the price of the deal remained an issue.

”Our CEO said a deal is ongoing and cannot disclose the content of it,” KDB spokesman Cho Hyun-eek said.

Lehman, which has more than $60bn of mortgage and mortgage security exposure, is under pressure to raise capital ahead of its results announcement this month.

Yonhap news quoted KDB CEO Min Euoo-sung, who headed Lehman’s local operations until earlier this year, as saying that the bank was in discussions to form a consortium with private banks to jointly buy Lehman, but that a pricing gap with Lehman remained.

A senior executive of another top South Korean bank told Reuters on Tuesday that KDB had a substantial interest in Lehman, but that detailed terms of a possible agreement had yet to be determined.

He said his bank would delay any decision on whether to participate in a consortium to be formed by KDB, on concerns that the talks between Lehman and KDB could break down. The executive asked not to be named until an announcement was made.

”We need to wait until a deal is done. It would be in the form of buying new shares or existing shares. But this kind of deals still has a high possibility of falling through, because Lehman could be in talks with other banks in other parts of the world,” he said.

A spokesman for Woori Bank, a unit of Woori Finance Holdings, also said it needed to wait before it decided whether to team up with KDB to buy a stake in or acquire the Wall Street bank.

Britain’s Sunday Telegraph reported that Lehman had intensified talks with KDB to raise as much as $6bn in a share sale that could be concluded this week, without specifying sources.

The paper said KDB could buy up to 25 per cent of the beleaguered US investment house.

Buying a top bank could catapult South Korea’s financial services firms into the top ranks of global investment houses, which have been battered by heavy mortgage writedowns and seen their share prices tumble.

Lehman’s shares have fallen more than 70 per cent since the beginning of the year, valuing the bank at around $11bn.

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Google set to introduce its own Web browser
Reuters
By Eric Auchard Reuters - 1 hour 22 minutes ago

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Google is set to introduce on Tuesday a new Web browser designed to more quickly handle video-rich or other complex Web programs, posing a challenge to browsers designed originally to handle text and graphics.
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Google officials confirmed news of long-rumoured plans to offer its own Web browsing software, entitled Google Chrome, in a company blog post after it mistakenly mailed details of the plan to a Google-watching blog, called Blogoscoped.com.

The company statement calls the move "a fresh take on the browser" and said it will be introducing a public trial of the Web browser for Microsoft Windows users on Tuesday. Details can be found at http://tinyurl.com/gchrome/.

The Internet search leader is also working on versions for Apple Macintosh users and for Linux devices, it said.

The launch of Chrome coincides with the recent introduction by arch-rival Microsoft of its Internet Explorer 8 last month. Internet Explorer holds roughly three-quarters of the browser market, followed by Mozilla's Firefox and Apple's Safari browsers.

Google said its engineers have borrowed from a variety of other open-source projects, including Apple's WebKit and the Mozilla Firefox open-source browser. As a result, Google plans to make all of Chrome software code open to other developers to enhance and expand, the company said.

"We realized that the Web had evolved from mainly simple text pages to rich, interactive applications and that we needed to completely rethink the browser," Google Vice President of Product Management Sindar Pichai and Engineering Director Linus Upson said in a jointly authored blog post.

BUILT FOR SPEED

They said Google Chrome promises to load pages faster and more securely, but it also includes a new engine for loading interactive JavaScript code, dubbed V8, that is designed to run the next generation of not-yet-invented Web applications.

"What we really needed was not just a browser, but also a modern platform for web pages and applications, and that's what we set out to build," Pichai and Upson wrote.

A Google spokesman declined to comment beyond the blog post.

Microsoft said the recently upgraded version 8 of Internet Explorer offered many new privacy and user control features.

"The browser landscape is highly competitive," Dean Hachamovitch, general manager of Microsoft's Internet Explorer, said in a statement.

"People will choose Internet Explorer 8 for the way it puts the services they want right at their fingertips, respects their personal choices about how they want to browse and, more than any other browsing technology, (it) puts them in control of their personal data online," Hachamovitch said.

John Lilly, chief executive of Mozilla Corp, the organization behind the Firefox browser, said Google, which has been his non-profit organization's biggest financial backer for several years, had recently renewed its support through 2011.

Mozilla recently introduced its own upgraded browser, Firefox 3, and has collaborated with Google on a variety of technical issues, including a system for reporting software crashes and to make software browsers more secure.

He said in a blog post that Mozilla and Google would continue to collaborate where it made sense for both organizations, but that Mozilla would also focus on its main mission of keeping the Web open and participatory by fostering its own commmunity-developed browser and other projects.

"With IE, Firefox, Safari, Opera, etc -- there's been competition for a while now, and this increases that," Lilly wrote in commenting on news of Google Chrome.

GOING 'INCOGNITO'

Google confirmed that it had prematurely mailed a copy of a promotional comic book detailing plans for Chrome to a blogger. Blogoscope's writer, Philipp Lenssen, scanned and published the 38-page comic at http://blogoscoped.com/google-chrome/.

Chrome organizes information into tabbed pages. Web programs can be launched in their own dedicated windows. It also offers a variety of features to make the browser more stable and secure, according to the comic book guide.

Among Chrome's features is a special privacy mode that lets users create an "incognito" window where "nothing that occurs in that window is ever logged on your computer." This is a read-only feature with access to one's bookmarks of favorite sites.

Once available for testing on Tuesday, the browser can be downloaded at http://www.google.com/chrome/.

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Venezuela and South Africa to sign energy deal: official
AFP
AFP - Monday, September 1 08:48 pm

JOHANNESBURG (AFP) - South Africa will sign an energy agreement with oil-rich Venezuela on Tuesday that could provide alternative energy sources to Africa's powerhouse economy, the government said.
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"Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves in the world and developing commercial relations in this sector could provide alternative sources of energy to South Africa," Foreign Affairs spokesman Ronnie Mamoepa said in a statement Monday.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will arrive in South Africa later in the day on his first state visit to South Africa and is expected to discuss political, trade and economic relations with President Thabo Mbeki.

Also on the agenda is the strengthening of South-South relations - between the two continents - and the second Africa-South American Community of Nations Summit to be hosted by Venezuela in November.

A crisis in South Africa's coal-driven electricity supply brought the country's key mining industry to a halt earlier this year with massive blackouts blamed for poor first quarter growth.

Venezuela, a member of oil cartel OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), has one of the world's largest oil reserves.

The two countries will also discuss mining, armament, agriculture and public works as well as strengthening of South-South relations through cooperation in the Non-Aligned Movement and the G77 + China fora, the statement added.

Chavez is scheduled to leave on Wednesday.

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Brazil, Britain want more 'ambitious' bilateral trade: ministers
AFP
AFP - Monday, September 1 10:43 pm

SAO PAULO (AFP) - Brazil and Britain are determined to grow their bilateral trade, and are also committed to seeing failed world trade talks revived, ministers from both countries said in Sao Paulo on Monday.
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"Britain and Brazil can do more trade together than we currently do," British Secretary of State for Business John Hutton told a media conference after a meeting with Brazilian Trade Minister Miguel Jorge.

"I just launched a challenge ... that we double our trade over the next five years," from 5.2 billion dollars in 2007 to 10 billion dollars in 2012, Miguel said.

The two ministers met for the third Joint Economic and Trade Committee, which was first set up between their countries in 2006.

The forum's aim is to boost trade flows between Brazil, Latin America's biggest economy and a major commodities exporter, and Britain, the third-biggest economy in the European Union.

Currently, Britain ranks only as Brazil's 15th biggest trading partner in terms of exports, according to a Brazilian government table that puts the United States, China and Argentina in the top three. Brazil exports far more to Britain than it imports.

The ministers said they were looking to strengthen cooperation in financial services and science and technology, and to encourage cross-flows of business by looking at better investment protection and an agreement on double taxation.

The two also declared their countries' commitment to reviving the Doha Round of multilateral trade talks that ran aground at the World Trade Organization in July, mainly because of disagreement between the United States and India on cotton.

"We have no alternative but to apply ourselves to find a way forward" towards "a sensible WTO agreement," Hutton said.

He added that he believed only "technical and narrow" differences stood in the way of a global pact.

Brazil has been leading efforts to revive the talks. It led the G20 group of developing nations at the WTO, and has been left exposed by the lack of bilateral agreements with EU countries and other markets in the wake of the talks' collapse.

Hutton, responding to a question about Brazilians maybe soon needing visas to travel to Britain because of the high number of citizens overstaying their legal period in the country, said: "We hope to resolve this issue without visa restrictions."

The matter, which has raised hackles in Brazil and concern that Brazilian tourists and businessmen will face an added barrier to entry, was being discussed in a number of meeting, including ones later this month, he said.

"I hope they are successful," Hutton said.

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Russian army to be armed with new weapon
01.09.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/kremlin/106255-Russian_new_weapon-0

The Russian army will test the new automatic grenade-launching complex Balkan in 2008.

This weapon designed by the Moscow-based enterprise Federal Scientific Center Pribor is exhibited at the show of arms and military hardware MVSV-2008, which currently takes place in Moscow.

Six units of the new 40-mm grenade-launching complex Balkan and 20,000 cartridges to it have already been delivered to Russia’s ground troops this year, in accordance with the state defense order. The new launcher will replace its predecessor, AGS-30 Plamya, Life.Ru reports.

Balkan overcomes Plamya on the range (up to 2.5 instead of 1.7 kilometers), on its battling capacity (owing to a larger caliber) and on the capacity of the explosive substance.

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Gazprom Neft looks to send crude to China via Kazakhstan
21:18 | 01/ 09/ 2008

MONACO, September 1 (RIA Novosti) - Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of Russian energy giant Gazprom, plans to apply for permission to ship crude oil to China via Kazakhstan in the fourth quarter of this year and in 2009, the company CEO said on Monday.

"We are the only company that has a direct contract with China Oil," Alexander Dyukov said.

It was earlier reported that Gazprom Neft had not been included in the schedule for oil shipments to China via Kazakhstan along the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline.

The company said it had applied to the Energy and Fuel Ministry for permission to pump 1.08 mln tons of crude in April-December 2008, but ran into transit problems with the Kazakh state transport monopoly KazTransOil.

A transit agreement signed between Russia and Kazakhstan last November provides for the export of up to 5 mln tons of oil per year from Russia to China through Kazakhstan, along the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline.

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China's ICBC to buy Russian bank for reported $800 mln - paper

16:45 | 29/ 08/ 2008

MOSCOW, August 29 (RIA Novosti) - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the country's largest, plans to buy 100% of Russia's RosEuroBank for a reported $800-$850 million, a Russian business daily said Friday citing banking sources.

The deal could be the first major investment into Russia by an Asian country.

Kommersant said the acquisition was entering its final phase. "The parties to the deal have come to terms, the documents will be signed in the near future, and the payment could be effected late this or early next year," a source close to the Russian bank's shareholders told the daily.

Managing company RosEuroGroup denied comments on the deal Thursday, and the ICBC's Moscow office did not reply to the paper's written enquiry citing confidentiality of the talks, Kommersant said.

Russia's state anti-monopoly regulator, however, has admitted that ICBC representatives have enquired about "rules for filing an application to buy RosEuroBank," the paper said, adding that the service gave no further details of the deal.

Citing sources close to the deal, Kommersant said ICBC, the world's largest bank in terms of capitalization (over $225 billion), would pay some $800-$850 million for RosEuroBank, or four times the Russian bank's capital.

Established in 1994, RosEuroBank's net assets amount to 46.8 billion rubles (about $2 billion) and capital to 5.5 billion rubles (about $224 million). RosEuroBank has 12 branches in Moscow and 26 elsewhere in the country.

"The high price is due to the Chinese's big interest in our market and the Russian shareholders' unwillingness to sell their assets cheaply," an analyst with KIT Finance investment, Maria Kalvarskaya, told the paper.

Analysts also say investors are willing to overpay for lower risk, as the Russian market has been largely unaffected by the global financial crisis.

Experts quoted by the paper suggest that once the deal is finalized RosEuroGroup will focus on the real estate sector, a more lucrative business with a greater growth potential.

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国産小麦価格39％上昇　09年度産入札、うどんなど値上げへ

　2009年度産国産小麦の製粉会社調達価格が全面高となった。8月に実施した入札の結果を全国米麦改良協会（東京・千代田）が2日発表した。北海道産の指標銘柄ホクシンは08年度産に比べ39％高の1トン5万8230円と値幅制限いっぱいまで上昇。輸入小麦の価格上昇を受けて比較的安価な国産小麦への買い付け意欲が高まった。

　国産小麦価格は2000年度産から北海道など産地の生産者団体が売り手、製粉会社が買い手となる入札で決めている。上場数量は収穫見込み量の約3割。残りは入札結果を指標にして産地と製粉会社が直接契約する。

　入札結果は来春以降出荷される国産小麦に反映される。国産小麦を原料に使ううどんや菓子が転嫁値上げされる公算が大きい。

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特会剰余金42.6兆円　07年度、想定より15兆円多く

　国の特別会計の2007年度決算で、歳入から歳出を差し引いた剰余金が42.6兆円にのぼることが財務省の資料で明らかになった。当初予算の見積もりを 15兆円上回ったが、このうち一般会計に繰り入れられたのは1.8兆円。多額の剰余金が積立金や翌年度への繰り越しに回ったことになる。省庁ごとに管理する特会について「無駄な支出の温床」との指摘は根強く、見直しを求める声が強まりそうだ。

　全部で28ある特会の07年度の決算は、歳入総額が395.9兆円、歳出総額が353.2兆円だった。このうち08年度への繰越額は12.9兆円。さらに10.8兆円が歳出の不用額とされ、それぞれの特会の積立金などに回った。剰余金が多い順では、国債整理基金が28.3兆円、外国為替資金（外為特会）が3.9兆円、財政融資資金が2.5兆円――だった。

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直接取引原油が大幅安　8カ月ぶり

　新日本石油、出光興産など日本の石油各社が産油国から長期契約で輸入する直接取引原油（ＤＤ原油）の価格が8カ月ぶりに下落した。今回決まった8月積みの価格は各油種とも15％近い大幅な下げ。ＤＤ原油は日本が輸入する原油の8割を占め、ガソリン、軽油などの卸値の基準になる。10月上旬までの石油製品価格を下押ししそうだ。

　輸入量が最も多いサウジアラビア産エキストラライトは前月比14.4％安の1バレル118.219ドル。エキストラライトは高品質でガソリン、軽油などを多く精製できる。

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盤薬品工業　頭をすっきりさせる清涼飲料水

　ノエビア子会社の常盤薬品工業（東京・港）はブドウ糖やＤＮＡ（デオキシリボ核酸）を配合し頭をすっきりさせたいときに適するという清涼飲料水「集注力」を8日に発売する。仕事中や勉強中に飲むのを想定して開発した。

　脳のエネルギー源となるブドウ糖を5600ミリグラム配当したほか、サケの白子から抽出したＤＮＡも120ミリグラム採り入れることで「考える力」を支えるとしている。アミノ酸の一種のアルギニンや、カフェインも含み、ミントのすっきりした味にした。50ミリリットル入りで、315円。

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男性の下着、若者層ほどブリーフ着用率が低下　ワコール調べ

　ワコールホールディングスがまとめた男性の下着に関する意識調査によると、普段着用する下着の形状（複数回答）は「トランクス」が75.2％、「ブリーフ」が26.0％だった。「ブリーフ派」は年代別では60代が51.5％で最も多かったのに対し、20代は9.7％にとどまるなど、総じて若い層ほど少なくなる傾向となった。

　特に気に入ったパンツを着用する場面を複数回答で聞いたところ、「恋人や妻とデートするとき」が32.8％でトップで、「恋人や妻と旅行に行くとき」が 27.9％で続いた。年代別でみると、20代は「デートするとき」が43.7％と全ての世代のなかで最も多かった。60代は23.3％にとどまり、「健康診断などで病院に行くとき」が43.7％と多かった。

　調査は7月2―3日にインターネットで実施。首都圏に住む15―64歳の男性1030人が回答した。

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日野自、インド市場に参入　タイから完成車

　日野自動車は2009年初めにもインド市場に参入する。近く販売会社を設け、小型・中型トラックの需要を開拓する。インドと東南アジア諸国連合（ＡＳＥＡＮ）が自由貿易協定（ＦＴＡ）の締結で合意したことを受け、タイの生産拠点から完成車を輸出する。将来は現地組み立ても検討する。成長が見込める新興国市場に攻勢をかけ、日本を含む先進国市場の低迷を補完する。

　月内をメドにムンバイに販売会社を設ける。資本金は5億円弱になる見通し。まずは需要の大きい小型・中型トラックを販売。市場動向をみながら段階的に大型トラックやバスも投入する。初年度に3000台の販売を見込み、2―3年後に2万台の規模に引き上げる。

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ローソン、「内食」品ぞろえ拡充

　ローソンは2日から、電子レンジで調理する新タイプの商品シリーズを投入する。プライベートブランド（ＰＢ＝自主企画）品の一種で、生野菜などを使うため、調理済みを加熱するレトルトに比べ食感が良い。食品メーカーと共同開発し、総菜12品をまず関東の1500店で販売する。外食を減らし自宅で食べる消費者の「内食」志向に対応。コンビニエンスストアで内食向け品ぞろえ強化の動きが広がっている。

　発売するのは「デリたて食堂」。「ネギ塩豚カルビとキャベツの炒め（いため）」（380円）や「ホイコウロウ」（380円）、「五目野菜のシャキシャキ炒め」（380円）など。生野菜や肉、調味料が入った樹脂容器をレンジで加熱すると、内部が高温・高圧になり調理される。1―1.5人前で、単身や共働き世帯を狙う。

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ＨＯＹＡ、中国のデジカメレンズ部品生産をフィリピンに移管

　ＨＯＹＡは1日、中国・広州にあるコンパクト型デジタルカメラのレンズ部品生産子会社を2009年3月末に清算すると発表した。レンズ部品生産はフィリピン工場に移管する。コンパクトデジカメの競争が激しくなるなか、生産拠点を集約して生産効率を高める。

　中国の生産子会社、ペンタックスＢＡＳＯオプトメカトロニクスを清算する。工場の閉鎖時期は今後、詰める。年間売上高は約60億円、営業利益は約3億円。生産するレンズ部品は外部にも供給しており、フィリピン工場に移管後も生産能力は維持する見通し。

----------------------------
丸紅、ウクライナから排出枠を取得

　丸紅はウクライナから温暖化ガス排出枠を150万トン取得する。京都議定書で温暖化ガスの削減目標を課された国からの排出枠取得は国内企業で初めて。このたび国連が同国内の大型炭鉱での削減事業を承認した。ウクライナは議定書目標の達成が確実視されており、排出枠に余裕がある。丸紅は調達先を新興国だけでなく目標保有国にも広げ、国内で広がる排出枠の転売需要に備える。

　ウクライナの大型炭鉱から発生しているメタンを回収し、発電に使う。温暖化効果が大きいメタンを燃やして分解し、排出枠を作る。今回は事業が始まった2006年から07年までに事業で作った排出枠を移転する。

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地震対策に新技術続々　鹿島など大手ゼネコン、今秋から

　大手ゼネコン（総合建設会社）が今秋から相次いで地震対策の新技術を実用化する。鹿島は直下型地震を検知して工場の生産ラインを緊急停止できるシステムを、竹中工務店は強度を3割高めた超高強度コンクリートを開発した。清水建設は鋼管とコンクリートの複合材料を使った耐震ビルの建設に着手した。大手各社は新技術導入で建築物の付加価値を高め、競争優位を固める。

　鹿島が開発した地震警報システム「オンサイトウォーニング」は過去の直下型地震に関する観測記録を分析し、地震発生直後の初期微動（Ｐ波）を検知してから二秒以内に警報を発信する。Ｐ波直後の強い揺れ（Ｓ波）が起こる数秒前に工場の生産ラインや高層ビルのエレベーターなどを緊急停止できるよう、制御システムを作動できる。

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東和銀、為替予約商品の中長期型も追加　新生銀などに紹介

　東和銀行は1日から、中長期型の為替予約商品の紹介業務を始めた。個別の商品説明などはせず、関心のある顧客を新生銀行とあおぞら銀行の2行に紹介する。東和銀は1年以内の短期型の為替予約を扱っていたが、1年以上の中長期型の商品はまだだった。群馬県内には輸出入関連の企業が多いため需要は高いと判断し、商品構成を拡充した。

　紹介を始めたのは「クーポンスワップ」や「通貨オプション」と呼ばれる為替予約商品。一定期間安定した為替レートで円と外貨の交換予約ができるため、為替相場が急速に変動した場合のリスクに対応できる。

　通貨オプションでは決済金額に変動のない「フラット型」や相場により決済金額が変更になる「レバレッジ型」、一定の基準を満たすと取引が消滅する「ノックアウト型」などを用意した。

　東和銀は顧客企業へのサービスを強化するとともに、紹介料によって手数料収入の拡大につなげる。

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スケートリンクを樹脂製に　富山市、12月設置

　富山市は1日、同市中心市街地の広場「グランドプラザ」に樹脂パネルを敷き詰めたスケートリンクを12月に設置すると発表した。事業費を通常に比べ半分以下に抑えるのが特徴。市はイベント用としての樹脂製スケートリンクは国内で初めてとしている。

　スケートリンク名は「エコリンク」といい、縦約30メートルで横約10メートル。12月1日から同28日まで有料開放する。料金は今後詰める。表面にオイルワックスを噴霧した特殊プラスチックパネル（2.4メートル×1.3メートル）を80枚程度並べて作る。氷上のスケート靴で滑ることができる。第三セクター「まちづくりとやま」が運営する。

　一般的にスケートリンクの設営は4000万円強の事業費がかかる。市は樹脂製パネルを使うことで費用を1700万円程度に抑えた。パネルの表裏を使うことで10年程度、利用が可能という。天井には高さ15メートルのつり型ツリーを設ける。

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金融商品に「110番」　東京３弁護士会、無料で電話相談

　「ロコ・ロンドン金取引」やファンドなど金融商品をめぐるトラブルが相次いでいるとして、東京の3つの弁護士会（東京、第一東京、第二東京）は25日、弁護士が無料で電話相談に応じる「金融商品被害１１０番」を実施する。

　ロコ・ロンドン金取引と呼ばれる海外での金の保証金取引では、福岡県警などが今年5月、特定商取引法違反容疑で、取引仲介会社などを初めて強制捜査。国民生活センターなどにも被害相談が相次いでいる。

　弁護士会には、ファンドによる高配当をうたう商品などで、高齢者を中心に数百万円の被害を訴える相談が数多く寄せられているという。

　相談は無料で、午前10時から午後4時まで。必要な場合は後日面談もする。先物取引や未公開株の被害にも応じる。電話番号は０３（５５１２）４５９１。

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首にワイヤ、つるされ殺害　愛知・一宮

　1日午後9時5分ごろ、愛知県一宮市大赤見市場地下屋敷の金属加工業「仲孝工業所」で、経営者の仲島孝治さん（57）が、工場内の作業用クレーンから、つり下げられているのを長男（19）が発見した。仲島さんは約一時間後、搬送先の病院で死亡が確認された。頭部と顔面には鈍器のようなもので殴られた跡が数カ所あることから、県警は2日、一宮署に捜査本部を設置、殺人容疑で捜査を始めた。

　調べによると、クレーンは工場のほぼ中央部の天井に設置。Ｊ字型のフックに巻き付けられた金属ワイヤが仲島さんの首に二重に巻き付けられていた。紺の作業着姿で、体は地面から少し浮いた状態だった。顔は血だらけで、死因は窒息死とみられる。

　仲島さん、長男、男性従業員の3人は1日朝から、仕事を始めた。昼過ぎに従業員が帰り、午後4時過ぎ、仲島さんと長男が帰宅。長男は夕食後、友人とゲームセンターに行った。遺体発見の約10分前の午後9時前、長男の携帯電話が鳴り、「工場に来い」とだけ言って、切れたという。

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天皇陛下、主要8カ国の下院議長ら招き茶会

　天皇陛下は1日、広島市で2日に開催される主要8カ国（Ｇ８）下院議長会議に出席する各国議長ら9人を皇居・宮殿に招き、茶会を開かれた。茶会には皇太子さまも同席。陛下と皇太子さまは1人ひとりと握手を交わし、和やかに懇談された。

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「またか」列島あきれる　二代続けて投げ出し

　「なぜ今、辞めるのか」「またも、無責任だ」。1日夜、福田康夫首相の突然の辞任表明は列島に衝撃を与えた。「国民のことを第一に考えた結果」と強調したが、難題山積のなか、二代続けての「政権放棄」に国民はあきれかえった。人ごとのように淡々と辞任の弁を語る二世首相は「私は自分を客観視できる」と不可解な“捨てぜりふ”を残して退場した。

　仕事帰りの会社員らでにぎわう東京都港区のＪＲ新橋駅前。「え、辞めるんですか」と驚いたのは横浜市青葉区の女性会社員（60）。首相辞任の一報を聞き、次第に怒りがわいてきたといい、「だらだらとした政治を続けてきた。辞任は当然だとも思うが、やはり無責任」と吐き捨てた。

　文京区の女性会社員（30）は「またかと思ってしまう。本当にがっかり」と不満をあらわに。「辞めるにしても別のやり方があったのではないか」とあきれた後、「次の首相は一つでもいいので確実に結果を残してほしい」と注文を付けた。

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福田降ろしの“背景”…公明が引導を渡した

記者の「他人事」に逆ギレも

　福田康夫首相は１日、たった１年で政権を投げ出した。１２日召集の臨時国会を乗り切れないと判断した末の“敵前逃亡劇”だが、永田町では「公明党が引導を渡した」との説が有力だ。同党は年末年始の衆院解散に照準を合わせ、「福田首相は選挙の顔として失格」との評価を吹聴。自民党内の「福田降ろし」を誘発し、政策面でもさまざまな圧力を加えていった。

　「私は自分自身を客観的に見ることができるんです。あなたとは違うんです」

　福田首相は１日夜の辞任会見で、自らの政権運営の成果については淡々と述べていたが、「他人事のように聞こえるが」との質問には、突如逆ギレした。

　このインパクトが強烈だったが、自民党ベテラン議員は、首相の次の発言に強く反応した。「自公政権が順調にいけばいい。しかし、私の先を見通す、この目の中には決して順調ではない可能性がある。不測の事態に陥ってはいけないとも考えた」

　公明党への不信感をにじませた瞬間だ。実際、福田首相は事前に、辞任の意向を太田昭宏代表にすら伝えていない。８月２９日には、商店街を一緒に視察することを打ち合わせたという。

　その太田氏は同日夜、「大変突然のことで、正直言って驚いている」と語ったが、先のベテラン議員は「公明党にとっては、希望通りの展開だろう」と語る。

　公明党は、支持母体の創価学会とともに来年夏の東京都議選を重視している。その準備期間を確保するため、年末年始の衆院選を希望しているのだが、福田政権の長期支持率低迷が続き、自民党に半身の姿勢を見せ始めた。

　事前に「花道論」も出ていた北海道洞爺湖サミット後、支持率が上がらないと見るや、同党幹部から「福田首相の下では次期衆院選は戦えない」との声を打ち上げた。内閣改造に際しても当初、党首会談の呼びかけに応じようとしなかった。北側一雄幹事長とソリが合わない自民党の伊吹文明前幹事長の交代を求め、麻生太郎幹事長になると、露骨に喜んだ。

　臨時国会の焦点となる新テロ対策特別措置法改正案でも路線は対立した。

　前臨時国会で使った衆院３分の２の賛成による再可決に慎重姿勢を崩さず、福田首相は国会召集時期でも大幅譲歩を余儀なくされた。先週末にまとめた経済総合対策でも、首相が難色を示していた定額減税について公明党側に押し切られた。

　さらには最近、麻生氏に近い甘利明前経産相が「福田降ろし」の可能性に言及したり、中川昭一元政調会長が「何もしない首相」と批判するといった動きが出た。これも公明党の「福田離れ」に連動したとの見方が広がっていた。

　一方の自民党は、一連の小泉改革によって、かつて自民党選挙を支えた支持団体が崩壊し、各小選挙区に約２万票を持つという公明党はいまや「自民党の最大支持団体」とされ、意向は無視できない。太田誠一農水相の事務所費問題では、太田氏が領収証を公開したにもかかわらず、公明党幹部が「説明が不十分だ」と攻めたて、「福田降ろしをしろ、ということでは」（自民党関係者）との見方は強まっていた。

　１２日に臨時国会を召集するなら、今週は所信表明演説の詰めに入らないといけない。福田首相流にいえば、こうした「いろいろなことを総合的に判断した結果」、その前に区切りをつけようとしたとみられる。

　自民党ベテラン議員は「民主党が徹底的にいじめ、公明党が最終的に引導を渡したということだろう。進むも地獄、引くも地獄の判断だった」と、福田首相の心境を代弁した。

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福田ショック、困惑渦巻く経済界…政治空白許されない

　福田首相が辞任表明したことについて、経済界では「突然の辞任表明に驚いている」（御手洗冨士夫日本経団連会長）との困惑が渦巻いた。首相が２代続けて「政権投げ出し」ともみられかねない交代に追い込まれたことで、経済界の与野党に対する評価が変化しかねない情勢だ。

　経済界は昨年９月に辞任した安倍晋三首相に続く突然の退陣表明に「無責任極まりない」（経団連関係者）と虚脱感に襲われている。福田内閣に対し、先進国で最悪の財政立て直し、消費税率引き上げを含む税制改革、年金、医療、介護など社会保障制度の一体改革といった構造改革を期待したはずだった。

　福田首相は、総合経済対策を打ち出したばかり。国内景気の先行き懸念が強まる中、経済界では「今は一日たりとも政治空白が許されない」（岡村正日本商工会議所会頭）など政治の混乱が長引くことは許されないとの意見が大勢を占める。

---------------------------------
2008年09月02日
福田首相を追い詰めたのは創価学会と米国である

　私のような政治の素人でも新聞を毎日丹念に読んでいると、物事が見えてくる。

　今度の福田首相の辞任は創価学会・公明党と米国がもたらしたものである。

　もちろん、大連立から対決姿勢に舵を切った小沢民主党が福田首相を追い詰めた。

　福田首相の支持率の低さが、これ以上総理を続けられないと福田首相を決断させた。

　その事は、辞任の記者会見で、福田首相自身が認めている。

　しかし、福田首相の口からは決して発せられる事はないが、福田首相を追い込んだのは創価学会と米国なのである。

　言論弾圧、人権蹂躙を理由に矢野元公明党委員長が創価学会を訴えた時、池田大作創価学会名誉会長は、「矢野をたたき過ぎた」とうそぶいたと、メディアで報じられた。

　もし、それが事実であるとしたら、今頃池田会長はさぞかしこう言っているに違いない。

　「福田をいじめすぎた」と。

　　実際のところ創価学会、公明党の福田いじめは目にあまるものがあった。

　　解散・総選挙の時期からはじまって、国会会期幅の問題、新テロ特措法延長問題、暫定税率問題など、福田首相のやろうとすることをことごとく公明党は否定した。

　　福田では戦えないとまで言って福田首相の名誉を毀損した。

　　福田首相でなくてもこれでは怒る。

　　しかもその理由が自らの保身である。矢野元公明党委員長の国会喚問は何としてでも阻止しなければならない。米国のイラク戦争に加担して偽装「平和政党」であると身内から批判されては創価学会の存亡にかかわる。

　だから何があっても国会を短縮し、かつて賛成したテロ特措法も、今では反対せざるを得ないのだ。

　福田首相の突然の辞任は公明党に対する強烈な意趣返しである。

　福田首相の辞任に最も衝撃を受けているのは創価学会・公明党に違いない。

　　　それでは、なぜ米国が福田首相を追い込んだ事になるのか。

　　　これは、もちろん、ブッシュ大統領に約束した新テロ特措法を通せないからである。

　　　米国に嫌われては政権維持はできない、という思い込みである。

　　　それはそっくり、安倍首相が辞任した時の理由と酷似する。

　　　そしてこちらの方は安倍、福田首相サイドのまったくの一人相撲である。

　　　確かにシーファー駐日大使などが盛んに日本の協力を求めて圧力をかけている。

　　　しかしこれは米国の常套手段だ。

　　　米国にとって新テロ特措法が通らなかったからといって大した話ではない。

　　　日本の政府・外務省側が勝手に大騒ぎをしているのだ。

　　　すなわち日米同盟がすべてであると思い込んでいる日本の指導者や官僚が、米国の無理筋の要求までも、それに応じなければ日米関係にひびが入ると勝手に思い込み、自らを追い込んでいるのである。

　　それを知っている米国は、内心ほくそえみながら、駄目でもいいからどんどんと要求エスカレートさせる。

　　つまり日本の政府・官僚が日米同盟の重要性を強調すればするほど、米国の理不尽な要求を呑まざるをえなくなり、無理な要求を飲み続けるうちに、政権が行き詰まるのである。

　　よく観察すればわかる。米国という国は、無意識のうちに親米政権を結果的にすべて潰してきた国なのである。

　　さて今後の政局である。これはもう滅茶苦茶だ。国民にとってはこれほど面白い事はない。

　　株価が少しぐらい下がっても、景気が悪くなっても、外交が停滞しても、大した問題ではない。そんな事は政治が機能しても何もよくならなかった。

　　我々は政治に一切期待することなく自分の力で生きていかなくてはならない。

　　そう覚悟すれば今の政治の混迷を嘲笑して楽しむほかはない。

　　小泉元首相の声がまったく聞こえてこないところがおもしろい。出て来れないのだろう。
http://www.amakiblog.com/archives/2008/09/02/#001115

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世界に広がる驚きと失望…米政府は「短命政権」に落胆

　福田首相の突然の辞任発表に、各国は大きな驚きと失望を隠せないでいる。

　米政府は、前任の安倍晋三首相に続き「短命政権」となったことに落胆している。日本に安定政権が存在することは日米同盟、東アジアの安全保障両面で不可欠な要素とみなしているからだ。福田氏の後継首相には、インド洋での給油活動の延長など日米間の課題を着実に解決できる実力派の登場を望んでいる。

　中国政府は正式なコメントを発表していないが、首相交代後も日中友好の「政策の継続性」（中国の対日研究者）に注目している。

　福田首相は昨年９月の就任以来、対中関係を重視。日中関係も軌道に乗っているだけに、中国側には「残念」との思いがある。誰が次期首相になっても、再び首脳レベルの信頼関係構築が必要で、首相が１年程度で交代することに「長期的な信頼関係が築きにくい」との不満もありそうだ。

　韓国の李明博政権は２０％前後に低下した支持率がようやく上向き、米韓首脳会談や中韓首脳会談で外交もようやく軌道に乗りかけたところだけに、韓国政府関係者は「国内政治の問題なのだろうが、タイミングが悪い」と困惑している。

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初摘発：路上に無料風俗求人誌並べ　大阪

　大阪府警保安課と曽根崎署は１日、無料風俗求人誌を公共の場である路上のラック（置き棚）に並べたとして、大阪市北区の広告会社と男性社長（４４）ら８人を府迷惑防止条例違反容疑で書類送検した。これまで、店紹介の風俗情報誌での摘発例はあったが、風俗求人誌では全国初。

　調べでは、同社の従業員が８月１４日、同市北区曽根崎１のコンビニエンスストア前の路上ラックに、無料風俗求人誌を置くなどした疑い。

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全日空：最高４００万円航空券、過大景品の指摘受け変更

　最高４００万円分になる無料航空券プレゼントキャンペーンが景品表示法（過大景品）違反に当たる可能性があるとして、全日空は２日、プレゼントを１０万円の旅行券に変更すると発表した。

　問題となったのは「ＡＮＡ夏の旅行インターネット予約・購入キャンペーン」。応募対象は、７月１日～９月３０日に搭乗した全日空のマイレージ会員（約１４００万人）で、キャンペーンを開始した６月当初は、希望する国内・国際線の往復航空券を各５組１０人にプレゼントするはずだった。

　しかし、８月２４日に匿名の電子メールで違法ではないかと指摘があり、社内調査の結果、問題があることが分かったという。航空路線に制限を加えなかったため、最高額の成田－ロンドン（ファーストクラス、往復２人）で計約４００万円となり、景品表示法の適用上限（１０万円以下）をはるかに超える。代替の旅行券は１０万円分を１２０人に変更した。

　既に約３３万人の応募があり、応募者におわびと内容変更の案内を電子メールで知らせる。当選発表は１０月下旬。

　全日空は８月２５日、高級座席の新聞広告写真が実際と異なるのは景品表示法違反に当たるとして、公正取引委員会から再発防止を求める排除命令を出されたばかり。全日空広報室は「法令に関する社内の態勢に甘さがあった」と陳謝した。

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Georgia August Dollar Sales Surge Amid Russia Crisis (Update2)

By Emma O'Brien
More Photos/Details

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Georgia's central bank sold more dollars in August than in any other month in at least nine years as the former Soviet republic sought to support the lari amid its five-day war with neighboring Russia.

The $187.2 million that was sold amounted to almost 13 percent of Georgia's $1.5 billion reserves, according to central bank figures. The sales were the highest since the National Bank of Georgia started to compile data on foreign-exchange interventions on its Web site in January 1999.

Allegations that Georgia attacked Russian peacekeepers and citizens in the breakaway region of South Ossetia spurred Russia to send in forces on Aug. 8. The conflict, condemned by the U.S. and Europe, prompted the National Bank to cut its benchmark interest rate to 11 percent from 12 percent and Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings to lower Georgia's credit ratings.

``The ruble tanked during all this, so imagine what would have happened to the lari'' without the dollar sales, said Vladimir Osakovsky, an analyst in Moscow at Milan-based UniCredit SpA, the bank with the largest assets in eastern Europe. ``The stable currency provided an anchor of financial stability amid the crisis.''

The central bank's actions, which included the sale of $12.9 million on the day of Russia's incursion, helped limit the lari's loss against the dollar to 0.1 percent last month, Osakovsky said in an interview.

Stability `Important'

Georgia's stocks and bonds slumped during the conflict. The 7.5 percent 13-year government security slid, pushing the yield 147 basis points higher to 9.94 percent. The yield jumped to a record 10.75 percent on Aug. 11. Bank of Georgia, the only stock listed outside the country, tumbled 32 percent, the biggest monthly drop since it started trading in November 2006.

The dollar sales by the National Bank, led by Governor David Amaglobeli, 32, amounted to about 15 percent of all the currency in circulation in Georgia, according to Osakovsky.

``In Georgia, people look at the exchange rate as an indicator of the whole economy, so it was important to keep it stable,'' said Archil Mestvirishvili, head of the central bank's macroeconomics and statistics department in the capital Tbilisi. ``If the demand for currency was larger than supply we intervened.''

The lari, which is managed by the central bank to limit the impact of its fluctuations on the competitiveness of exports, was little changed at 1.4099 per dollar on Aug. 29.

Russia's ruble, which in August had its worst monthly decline against the dollar since March 1999, fell 0.1 percent to 24.6762 today. The nation's central bank lets the ruble trade freely within a band against a basket made up of dollars and euros. It lost 1.7 percent versus the basket last month.

Georgian economic growth will probably be 9 percent this year, down from 12.4 percent in 2007, Amaglobeli said Aug. 21, nine days after President Dmitry Medvedev called off Russia's military operation. Russian peacekeepers remain in the Georgian port city of Poti and in the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, whose independence Russia has recognized.

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Iraq Safer Than Ohio Banks Stung by Credit Crisis (Update1)

By Lester Pimentel

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Iraq's bonds are delivering the biggest returns in emerging markets as oil export revenue bolsters government finances and violence declines.

The country's $2.7 billion of 5.8 percent bonds due 2028 gained 45 percent since August 2007, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. Investors demand 4.84 percentage points more in yield to own the debt instead of Treasuries, down from 7.26 percentage points a year ago. The spread is narrower than for notes of Ohio banks National City Corp. and KeyCorp, suggesting Baghdad may be safer for bond investors than Cleveland.

Oil exports will climb as high as $86 billion this year, more than double the $30 billion annual average from 2005 to 2007, helping the country post a $52.3 billion budget surplus, according to the U.S. Government Accounting Office. A reduction in bloodshed has allowed the Bush administration to consider a ``general timeline horizon'' for troop reductions.

``The main driver'' of the rally is oil revenue, said Gunter Heiland, who manages $12 billion in emerging-market debt, including Iraqi bonds, at JPMorgan Asset Management in New York. ``The other is implied U.S. support. It's half a commodity story, half a political story.''

Yields on the bonds fell to 8.65 percent from a high of 11.81 percent in August 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the securities surged to 73 cents on the dollar from a low of 54 cents a year ago.

`More Upside'

``There's still more upside,'' said Edwin Gutierrez, who manages $5.5 billion in emerging-market debt, including Iraqi bonds, at Aberdeen Asset Management in London.

Iraq, which has the world's third-largest oil reserves, sold the debentures in January 2006 as part of a settlement with creditors who agreed to forgo claims on debt issued under the regime of Saddam Hussein.

The price of oil, Iraq's biggest export, rose to a record of $147.27 on July 11, and is up 61 percent from a year ago. The country's daily production in the second quarter reached its highest level since the March 2003 U.S. invasion, the U.S. Defense Department said July 30.

Roadside bomb attacks dropped to 14 in June from 76 in the same month last year as a result of the U.S. troop increase and support of local Sunni Muslims battling al-Qaeda fighters, Army Lt. Gen. Thomas F. Metz told reporters Aug. 6, according to the Pentagon's news service. American soldiers would withdraw from cities and towns to nearby bases by next summer under a proposed agreement announced on Aug. 21 between the U.S. and Iraq.

Oil Field Dispute

``The political situation has improved substantially,'' said Jonathan Binder, who began buying Iraqi bonds for the more than $2 billion of emerging-market assets he manages at INTL Consilium LLC in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Gains may be tempered should a dispute between Kurds and Arabs for control of oil fields in Kirkuk trigger a resurgence in violence, said Ward Brown, who manages more than $3 billion in emerging-market debt, including Iraqi bonds, at Massachusetts Financial Services in Boston. The disagreement has prevented the Iraqi parliament from reaching a consensus on a law that would provide for elections this year.

Iraq's bonds, which don't have a credit rating, rallied even as more than $500 billion of credit market losses and writedowns drove investors away from all but the safest government securities.

National City and KeyCorp, based in Cleveland, have debt ratings of A and spreads of 9.59 percentage points and 7.55 percentage points. The banks are two of the more than 70 firms worldwide that have recorded about $512 billion in losses and writedowns since the start of 2007 amid the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.

Emerging-market premiums widened 62 basis points, or 0.62 percentage point, from a year ago to an average of 3.03 percentage points, according to New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. Iraq's yield spread is smaller than Argentina, Ecuador, Ukraine and Venezuela, JPMorgan indexes show.

``Iraq provides some insulation from the market,'' Brown said. ``The risks are so idiosyncratic that it trades on its own drivers.''

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10:41 GMT, Monday, 1 September 2008 11:41 UK
Bolivia's president lands in Iran
Bolivian President Evo Morales holds a copy of his proposed new constitution, 28 August

Bolivian President Evo Morales has arrived in Iran to discuss trade and closer ties with his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

His visit follows a trip made by Mr Ahmadinejad to La Paz last year, during which he pledged a $1.1bn (£600m) investment in the Andean nation.

The trip will be closely watched by the US, which has tense relations with Tehran over its nuclear programme.

Mr Morales has also been in Libya, for talks with leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Bolivia and Libya recently established diplomatic relations and the two men were expected to sign energy agreements.

Little in common

Mr Morales and his trade delegation were met from the plane at Tehran airport by Iran's Industries Minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian.

He was due to meet Mr Ahmadinejad later in the day, Iranian press reported.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Bolivia had described the trip as an attempt to reach out to other nations "rejected by the international community".

Mr Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, described his country and Iran as "two friendly and revolutionary countries" that are strengthening ties.

In a recent speech, he had said Iran's efforts to provide economic and political backing would "support the peasant struggle in Latin America".

Iran's investment will be directed at boosting bilateral economic and agricultural ties, from milk processing plants, to TV and radio stations to funding hydrocarbon and hydroelectric exploration.

Reports also suggest Mr Ahmadinejad is interested in Bolivia's reserves of uranium and lithium for use in Iran's nuclear projects.

The growing relationship between the two governments has raised eyebrows amongst Bolivia's right-wing opposition and in the United States - which takes a dim view of Iranian influence in its backyard, the BBC's Andres Schipani in Bolivia says.

To some analysts, Iran is seeking to gain geopolitical control in Latin America with the aid of Venezuela's leftist President Hugo Chavez, an unconditional ally of Mr Morales.

Mr Morales has joked on several occasions that he is part of the "axis of evil".

But apart from the fact that both presidents are strong critics of the US, analysts say there is very little in common between Mr Morales and Mr Ahmadinejad.

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23:03 GMT, Monday, 1 September 2008 00:03 UK
Older fathers linked with bipolar
sperm

Older fathers are more likely to have children with bipolar disorder, research suggests.

The risk goes up when men are older than 29 before they start their family, and is highest if they are over 55.

Increasing paternal age has already been linked with schizophrenia and autism, but not bipolar disorder, formerly known as manic depression.

The Swedish study, in Archives of Psychiatry, suggests the risk may, in part, be explained by ageing sperm.

DNA errors

Unlike women who are born with all their eggs, men make new sperm throughout their adult life.

The process of making sperm involves copying DNA, and this is prone to error, particularly as men age, say the Karolinska Institute researchers.

Bipolar disorder

* People with bipolar disorder fluctuate between intense depression and mania, interspersed by periods of relative calm
* The exact causes of bipolar disorder aren't known, but it appears to run in families
* About 1 in every 100 people develop bipolar disorder in their lifetime


Lead researcher Emma Frans explained: "Women are born with their full supply of eggs. Therefore, DNA copy errors should not increase in number with maternal age."

Consistent with this notion, they found smaller effects of increased maternal age on the risk of bipolar disorder in the families they studied.

For the study, they identified 13,428 patients in Swedish registers with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder.

For each one they randomly selected from the registers five controls who were the same sex and age but did not have bipolar disorder.

Older dads

After controlling for other factors like age of the individual's mother, number of siblings and family history of mental health problems, they found a clear link between risk of bipolar disorder and father's age.

The older an individual's father, the more likely he or she was to have bipolar disorder.

The children of men 55 years and older were 1.37 times more likely to go on to be diagnosed with bipolar disorder than those of men aged 20 to 24.

Marjorie Wallace, chief executive of the mental health charity SANE, said: "Bipolar disorder is a cruel affliction carrying a high risk of suicide and SANE welcomes this contribution to our understanding of this condition.

"There are, however, a complex range of factors that make people more or less prone to illnesses such as this, so a great deal of work still needs to be done if we are to develop better treatments and raise hope for the future."

Neil Tinning, patron of MDF The Bi-Polar Organisation, said: "From the point of view of a bipolar sufferer, this study demonstrates we need more investment, more education and more representative research into this debilitating and life threatening illness."

Bipolar disorder affects half a million people in the UK. Other than a family history of psychotic disorders, few risk factors for the condition have been identified.

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柔道石井、首相辞任で「うすうす、こうなると」

2008年9月2日19時38分

　北京五輪の柔道男子１００キロ超級で金メダルを獲得した石井慧（国士大）が２日、学長らへの優勝報告会で、またまた周囲を笑いに包んだ。

　「腹黒くないから人気がない」と擁護した福田首相が１日に突然の辞任表明。「うすうす、こうなると思っていた。腹黒くないから政治家には向いてなかったのでは」

　今後の課題を問われると「もっと技の幅を広げることと、組み手へのこだわり。あとは打撃」と総合格闘技への転向を連想させる冗談で、また笑わせる。「絶口調」はとどまるところを知らない。

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サラリーマンの心の病、企業の５６％が増加傾向と回答　６割超が３０代
2008.9.2 17:06

　社会経済生産性本部のメンタル・ヘルス研究所（小田晋所長）がまとめた社員のメンタルヘルスに関するアンケートによると、約５６％の企業が「心の病は増加傾向」にあるとしているた。年齢別では、約６割の企業が３０代社員が最も多いとしており、バブル後入社世代の中堅層で、一層の心のケアが必要な状況が浮き彫りになった。

　心の病について、増加傾向と答えた企業の割合は５６・１％で、平成１８年の前回調査時から比べて５・４ポイント減少した。１４年の調査開始以来初めて減少したものの、６割弱と依然高い水準にある。従業員の規模別で見た場合、従業員３０００人以上の大手企業では６６・２％が増加と答えており、大企業ほど心の病が増加する傾向にあるという。

　生産性本部では、「納得感や信頼感、仕事の価値観などを共有するコミュニケーションの減少が増加傾向に大きくかかわっている」と分析している。同調査は２年ごとに行われており、今年４月に上場企業２３６８社を対象に実施、２６９社から回答を得た。

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落語協会が収支報告書提出怠る
2008.9.2 18:30

　社団法人の落語協会（鈴々舎馬風会長）が、公益法人として提出が義務づけられている収支報告書などを、平成１４年度から１９年度にわたって提出せず、昨年秋の検査で所管する文化庁から指導を受けていたことが２日、わかった。

　その後、同協会は書類を提出したが１９年度分については内容に不備があり、再提出を指示された。同協会は、寄席興行の円滑な維持のために同庁から１７～１８年度に年間約５０００万円の助成を受けていたが、必要書類が提出できないとして１９年度の助成については辞退、今年度も申請を取り下げた。