View of the day: Not so safe havens

View of the day: Not so safe havens

By Mansoor Mohi-uddin

Published: July 23 2008 15:16 | Last updated: July 23 2008 15:16

The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, despite traditionally being viewed as safe haven currencies, have failed to outperform during the year-long credit crunch, says Mansoor Mohi-uddin, currency strategist at UBS.

Instead, the Australian dollar has been the strongest major currency so far this year, he says, while gold has outshone above all. A range of other currencies, including the Polish zloty, Brazilian real and Swedish krona have also beaten the yen and the Swissie.

Mr Mohi-uddin points out that, in spite of rising risk aversion, Swiss and Japanese investors have kept allocating increasing shares of their portfolios to overseas markets.

“This matters as we estimate Japanese investors in total have $15,000bn of liquid financial assets and Swiss investors just under $5,000bn,” he says. “At the same time, the global slowdown hasn’t been widespread enough to force foreign investors to eschew all high-yielding currencies.”

For the traditional safe havens to shine again, Mr Mohi-uddin says the slowdown needs to spread beyond the countries currently experiencing housing busts – the US, UK, New Zealand, Ireland and Spain – to all the leading developed economies and core emerging markets such as Brazil and China.

“This would cause central bankers across the globe to switch from interest rate hikes to curb inflation, to interest rate cuts to support growth, leaving investors with little choice but to abandon carry trades.”

--------------------------
Arctic has 90bn barrels of crude

By Carola Hoyos in London

Published: July 23 2008 19:43 | Last updated: July 23 2008 19:43

The Arctic holds as much as 90bn barrels of undiscovered oil and has as much undiscovered gas as all the reserves known to exist in Russia, US government scientists have said in the first governmental assessment of the region’s resources.

The report is likely to add impetus to the race among polar nations, such as Russia, the US, Denmark, Norway and Canada, for control of the region.

The US Geological Survey believes the Arctic holds 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil, while 1,669,000bn cubic feet of natural gas is equivalent to 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered gas reserves.

“The extensive Arctic continental shelves may constitute the geographically largest unexplored prospective area for petroleum remaining on earth,” the USGS said.

Last August Russia planted its flag on the seabed 4km under the North Pole raising fears of a rush to grab the Arctic’s mineral resources, particularly its oil and gas deposits. Denmark in May called a summit of the five Arctic powers in Ilulissat, Greenland, to try to restrain competition and reiterate the countries’ joint commitment to the United Nation’s Law of the Sea Convention that governs territorial waters.

Commercial interest in exploiting the Arctic has also increased, with Royal Dutch Shell, the Anglo-Dutch energy group, pushing to help Russia develop gas from the Yamal region, and Total winning the right to do so at Russia’s giant Shtokman gas field.

In the US, companies are pushing ever further into the Arctic regions of Alaska, while Denmark has attracted a number of large companies interested in exploring for oil and gas off the coast of Greenland.

Consultants Wood Mackenzie in 2006 estimated the Arctic basins, including those already being developed, held 233bn barrels of discovered oil and gas with another 166bn yet to be found, the majority of it gas.

Alan Murray, who heads its exploration research and co-authored the report, noted that the USGS was often more optimistic about potential resources than other research organisations. “These are huge potential volumes, but they are not going to impact supplies or price any time soon. There are still a lot of undeveloped resources that are easier and closer.”

The USGS report used a probabilistic methodology and included only undiscovered resources that could be exploited using today’s technology.

-------------------------
Japan’s exports fall for first time in five years

TOKYO, July 24 – Japan’s exports unexpectedly fell in June for the first time in nearly five years as shipments to emerging markets sputtered after sustaining growth through the first year of the global credit crisis.

Exports to Asia expanded at their weakest pace in three years with demand in China, Japan’s biggest customer, growing at less than half the pace of May. Shipments to the United States fell for a tenth month and to Europe for a second month.

China and other emerging markets have largely escaped the initial impact of the global credit crisis triggered by US mortgage defaults. But with the world’s main export markets in Europe and North America reeling from bank failures and a lending squeeze, a global slump looks increasingly likely.

”Exports to many Asian countries fell from the previous year, which suggests intra-regional trade in Asia may be losing momentum,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities SBMC.

”If the slowdown in the United States and Europe continues, that will affect Asian economies. Demand from emerging economies alone will not be enough to lead export growth,” she said.

Financial markets showed a muted response to the data.

Japan’s exports fell 1.7 percent in June from a year earlier, marking the first fall in 55 months. Economists had forecast a 3.8 percent rise.

Exports to Asia rose 1.5 percent, the slowest pace since May 2005. China-bound shipments climbed 5.1 percent, compared with a 12.2 percent rise in May.

The fall in exports is a worrying sign, fanning the view that the world’s second-biggest economy contracted in the April-June quarter and raising the prospect that the expansion since 2002, Japan’s longest in the post-war period, could be coming to an end.

The government has already conceded that the expansion may be approaching a turning point. The economy relied heavily in the first quarter on overseas demand for Japanese products to record quarterly growth of 1 percent.

”The data suggests that the contribution of net exports to GDP in April-June will probably turn out as zero or negative,” said Junko Nishioka, an economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

”Given weakness in personal consumption and capital spending, the question now is not whether GDP has contracted in the second quarter, but how much it has contracted.”

Indeed, if demand from emerging markets continues to falter, the Bank of Japan may have to cut its growth forecast again, said Atsushi Mizuno, a hawkish member of the central bank’s policy board.

Just last week, the central bank cut its economic growth forecast for the year to March 2009 to 1.2 per cent, which would be the slowest pace in six years, and predicted the fastest inflation in a decade.

”The fog hanging over Japan’s economy is unlikely to clear any time soon,” Mizuno said in speech to business leaders in Aomori, northern Japan, pointing to the negative impact of rising costs for energy and raw materials.

He also told a news conference that he was more concerned about downside risks to the economy than inflation.

Mizuno said US economic growth may not return to its potential levels until 2010 and financial markets are far from normalising.

Economists said Mizuno’s comments and expectations that a recovery in the U.S. economy will be slow in coming put back any possibility of raising Japan’s interest rates, currently just 0.5 percent, despite quickening inflation.

”It is certain that Mizuno’s comments today suggest that the timing for a rate hike could be later than expected, given that he said a recovery in the U.S. economy may be delayed until 2010,” Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, said.

Swap contracts are pricing in about a 20 per cent chance of a rate hike by the end of this year

Mizuno said Japan’s annual core consumer price inflation could reach around 2.5 percent later this year, from a current decade high of 1.5 percent, but added that would not lead to a broad-based increase in prices and wages.

The central bank scrapped a tightening bias in April to adopt a neutral stance on policy.

--------------------------
６月の輸出額55カ月ぶり前年割れ　貿易統計、1―6月もマイナス

貿易統計の推移(グラフ)

　財務省が24日発表した6月の貿易統計速報（通関ベース）によると、輸出額は前年同月比1.7％減となり2003年11月以来、55カ月ぶりに前年割れとなった。貿易黒字も4カ月連続で縮小。自動車輸出の落ち込みで欧米向け輸出額が減ったほか、アジア向け輸出の伸びも小幅にとどまった。08年上半期（1―6月）の貿易黒字も4期ぶりに減少に転じた。

　景気回復のけん引役となってきた輸出も、世界経済の減速に伴い節目をむかえつつある。前年割れが今後も続けば、踊り場にある日本経済はさらに厳しい局面を迎える。

　6月の輸出額を大きく押し下げたのは米国向けで、前年同月に比べ15.4％減少した。金属加工機械は伸びたが、自動車や関連部品の輸出が落ち込んだ。米国向け貿易黒字は4444億円と、01年5月以来の低水準となった。

　前月からマイナスに転じた欧州連合（ＥＵ）向け輸出は6月も11.2％減。英・スペイン向け中型車が振るわなかったほか、船舶や電算機の部品の輸出が減少した。

　アジア向け輸出は1.5％増と76カ月連続で増え6月としては過去最高額を更新。ただ伸び率は1.5％増と小幅にとどまった。中国向け輸出額は5.1％増となり過去最高を更新した。

　輸出数量指数は1.4％減と07年2月以来のマイナス。為替や物価の影響を除いた輸出量そのものも減少した。原油高の影響から輸入額は前年比16.2％増と過去最高を更新。輸出額から輸入額を差し引いた貿易黒字額は88.9％減の1386億円となり、4カ月連続で減少した。

　上半期は、輸出額が前年同期比3.9％増と13期連続で増加したが、伸び率は6期ぶりに1ケタ台に鈍化した。輸入額は10.5％増と12期連続で増加し、原油など資源価格の高騰で過去最高となった。

-----------------------
US passes housing rescue bill

By James Politi in Washington

Published: July 23 2008 14:21 | Last updated: July 24 2008 08:16

The US House of Representatives on Wednesday approved a package of legislation designed to breathe fresh life into the ailing US housing market after the White House dropped its opposition to the bill as it sought to ensure quick passage of its rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through Congress.

“This is not the time for a prolonged veto fight, al-though we’re confident that the president would prevail in one,” said Dana Perino, the White House spokeswoman. “But with Congress scheduled to leave soon for yet another recess, the risk of not having a bill until the middle of September is not a risk worth taking in the current environment.”

The Bush administration had opposed several elements of the housing bill, which has been winding its way across Capitol Hill in recent months, such as $4bn (€2.5bn, £2bn) in grants for states and local authorities to buy foreclosed properties.

But the need rapidly to incorporate its request for the Treasury department to be given almost unlimited powers to invest in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, if necessary, had made the White House’s negotiating position increasingly difficult to sustain. The proposed bill also creates a new more powerful regulator for the government-sponsored mortgage companies – a long-time priority for the administration and many Republicans.

“We do believe that this GSE reform that is finally going to be included in the legislation is something that will help stabilise the market,” Ms Perino said, adding that it “not only helps homeowners but would help the economy overall.”

The bill now moves to the Senate and the White House for President George W. Bush’s signature early next week at the latest.

The rescue plan at first met some fierce resistance in Congress, particularly from conservative Republicans worried at the potential cost to taxpayers. But by late last week it was apparent a strong consensus was building in its favour.

As well as the provisions related to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bill will allow the government to guarantee up to $300bn in mortgages refinanced at more affordable rates through the Federal Housing Administration, the housing insurer for low-income Americans. This has been the cornerstone of Democratic efforts to intervene in the markets to set a floor to falling home prices.

-------------------------
Berlusconi wins immunity from prosecution

By Guy Dinmore, Rome Correspondent

Published: July 23 2008 08:36 | Last updated: July 23 2008 22:33

Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s centre-right prime minister, has won a significant victory in his long-running battle with the courts by using his large parliamentary majority to pass a law giving himself immunity from prosecution.

His lawyer and fellow member of parliament, Niccolò Ghedini, said on Wednesday they would next decide whether to use the law to suspend the corruption trial against Mr Berlusconi and David Mills, his former UK lawyer.

“Our intention was to halt the trial,” Mr Ghedini told the Financial Times. Mr Berlusconi had no immediate comment on his plans.

The Senate passed the bill by a wide margin late on Tuesday evening, giving immunity to Italy’s four top holders of political office. It enters into law once signed by the president and published in the official gazette.

Mr Berlusconi and his People of Freedom alliance argue that he needs to devote his attention to leading Italy out of its deep economic crisis rather than endure a time-wasting repeat of his last term in office fighting politically biased judges and prosecutors.

The 71-year-old premier recently described them as a “cancer” and suggested some were deranged. Italy would join the ranks of “normal” countries by adopting an immunity law, he said when introducing it.

“Those who have won the elections have a right to govern,” said Maurizio Gasparri, Senate leader of the ruling alliance. Many Italians would agree, and in a big swing to the right Mr Berlusconi decisively defeated the centre-left government in April’s elections.

Mr Berlusconi is accused of bribing Mr Mills, former husband of Tessa Jowell, the UK Olympics minister, with $600,000 (€380,000, £300,000) to give false testimony on his behalf in a case involving alleged secret accounts behind the prime minister’s media empire. Both men deny the charges.

Once the immunity bill becomes law, judges will have to decide whether to proceed with Mr Mills alone or suspend the whole trial until Mr Berlusconi is no longer prime minister. His term expires in 2013.

At least two other cases were pending against Mr Berlusconi in the Italian courts, one involving his television company, Mediaset, and a more recent investigation into whether he corrupted an editor with Rai, the state broadcaster.

Commentators say Giorgio Napolitano, the leftwing president, will reluctantly sign the immunity law. But it may be challenged by the Constitutional Court, which in 2004 threw out a similar law passed by the previous Berlusconi government.

With the centre-left opposition in parliament demoralised, the main challenge to Mr Berlusconi may rest with the trade unions and radical left parties, which are focused on resisting planned public sector spending cuts.

Angelino Alfano, the justice minister after whom the immunity law was named, said the government hoped to deal with an opposition “free of prejudice” to push through needed reforms of the judiciary.

Antonio Di Pietro, a former anti-corruption magistrate and leader of the opposition Italy of Values party, said he would launch a referendum campaign against the immunity law.

The Senate late on Wednesday approved the government’s “security package”, which includes measures allowing deployment of 3,000 troops on urban crime patrols.

---------------------------
Gaddafi arrest brings anti-Swiss backlash

By Heba Saleh in Cairo and Frances Williams in Geneva

Published: July 24 2008 01:53 | Last updated: July 24 2008 01:53

Switzerland accused Libya on Wednesday of taking “worrying retaliatory measures” against its citizens as relations between the countries deteriorated a week after the Swiss authorities had arrested the son of the Libyan leader, Muammer Gaddafi.

The Swiss foreign ministry said two of its nationals had been under arrest in the north African country since Saturday and that Swiss businesses, including the local offices of food group Nestlé and the engineering group ABB, had been ordered to close.

Hannibal Gaddafi and his wife were arrested last week and later released on bail after two of their staff accused them of assault during an incident at a luxury Geneva hotel. He spent two days in detention while his wife, who is pregnant, was taken to hospital.

Switzerland sent a delegation to Libya on Wednesday to “give explanations” to the Libyan authorities over the arrest and, it said, “prevent a crisis”. But dozens of Libyans demonstrated in front of the Swiss embassy in Tripoli calling for an apology. Mostly members of the Revolutionary Committees, which are close to the authorities, they handed a statement to the ambassador reportedly threatening that in the absence of an apology, they would demand that parliament take punitive steps against Switzerland.

These would include the withdrawal of Libyan money from Swiss banks, the barring of Swiss companies from competing for Libyan contracts and a halt in oil sales to the European country. According to US Department of Energy figures, Switzerland imports more than 20 per cent of its oil from Libya.

“One cannot completely exclude the risk of having Libyan oil deliveries to Switzerland suspended, but it doesn’t look very realistic, because Libya hasn’t mentioned this scenario,’’ said Jean-Marc Crevoisier, of the Swiss foreign ministry.

But the ministry has told its citizens not to travel to Libya, warning them that they are likely to face arrest at the “slightest irregularities” in their papers. Libya has also ordered a reduction in air links between the two countries. Swiss International Airlines says it was told it could fly to Libya only once a week, instead of three times.

Libya has also recalled some of its diplomats in Bern and it has stopped issuing visas to Swiss citizens.

Robin Tickell, a Nestlé spokesman, said the general manager and sole employee of its representative office in Tripoli, an Egyptian national, was questioned by police on Sunday and released shortly afterwards. But the office was subsequently sealed by the authorities and remains shut.

--------------------------
S Africa hit by strikes over rising living costs

By Tom Burgis in Johannesburg

Published: July 24 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 24 2008 03:00

Tens of thousands of strikers brought Johannesburg to a halt yesterday in protest at rising electricity prices and living costs, as trade unions vowed to bring the economy to a standstill next month unless their demands were met.

Workers stayed away in four of South Africa's nine provinces, closing mines, shops and factories, in response to a call from Cosatu, the powerful union federation, to protest against a 27.5 per cent increase in electricity tariffs for 2009.

In Johannesburg about 25,000 people marched on the head office of Eskom, the power utility. Underinvestment in Eskom by the government plunged the country into an electricity crisis earlier this year.

Zwelinzima Vavi, general secretary of Cosatu, said the demonstrators had gathered to "register their disgust at the spiralling cost of living". He demanded the government overturn most of the energy price rises agreed by the energy regulator and also address taxes on some basic food stuffs.

If it were not satisfied, the federation would hold a nationwide strike on August 6, Mr Vavi said.

But Keith Brebnor, chief executive of the Johannesburg Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said he feared "the international effect [of the strikes] on our reliability as a trading partner".

Eskom said it recognised that "price rises affect the poor", but in reality the state-owned utility has no room for manoeuvre.

Jacob Maroga, Eskom chief executive, told the Financial Times last week prices would have to rise still further to curb demand and to help fund its R300bn ($40bn, €25bn, £20bn) investment programme to restore generation capacity to adequate levels.

"If inflation and interest rates go up, everything goes up, from a glass of water," said Nombulelo Mehlomakhulu, a state attorney taking part in the protest. "The basic standard of living is unbearable."

Seeking to counter inflation that hit 10.9 per cent in May, the central bank has raised interest rates by 500 basis points over the past three years to 12 per cent.

Jeff Gable, head of research at Absa bank, predicted inflation could fall by as much as 6 percentage points next year from a peak of 13 per cent, allowing cuts to the cost of borrowing of 200-250 basis points and relieving animosity to the South Africa Reserve Bank's inflation-targeting mandate.

But Patrick Craven, Cosatu spokesman, said the union "strongly opposed" inflation targeting and would push the ruling African National Congress and the South African Communist party - its partner in the governing alliance - to review their monetary policy stance.

Cosatu's influence has increased with the rise of Jacob Zuma, its ally, to the leadership of the ANC and in all likelihood to the presidency next year.

-------------------------
Rush for natural gas drives rise in US output

By Sheila McNulty in Houston

Published: July 24 2008 00:51 | Last updated: July 24 2008 00:51

Natural gas production in the US grew faster than anywhere else in the world last year as a rush of companies eager to capitalise on rising prices moved quickly to adopt new techniques for tapping resources once believed to be off-limits.

A report by PFC Energy, a consultancy, said natural gas production in the US grew by “an astonishing 4.3 per cent” last year, following a 2.3 per cent increase in 2006. Production data to the end of April this year show a growth rate of more than 10 per cent compared with the same period in 2007.

“This growth can continue,” said Bob MacKnight, a PFC lead analyst. “The resource is there and the price is high enough so that the various technologies are commercial.”

Only a few years ago the industry believed that US natural gas production had peaked. But new technologies have opened up access to more resources from unconventional sources, such as shale gas, tight sands and coal-bed methane.

“Until recently, many of these unconventional sources were either uneconomic or marginally economic,” Mr MacKnight said. “Fuelled by an almost 100 per cent gas price increase, between 2003 and 2006 the US onshore drilling rig count almost doubled as the industry applied brute force to extract as much gas as it could.”

As fears have grown about peak supplies, the world’s large oil and gas companies have scrambled to develop technologies to gain access to resources once considered unreachable – such as in the deep-water Gulf of Mexico – or too expensive to pursue.

Typically, the development of new technologies has taken a long time. But in onshore US production, this has happened quickly over the past five years.

“Driving the speed of implementation of these new technologies is the large number of operators and service companies active in these unconventional gas basins, causing any successful new drilling or completion technology to be quickly adopted by most companies active within the play,” said Mr MacKnight.

Devon Energy, which has been a leader in extracting natural gas from shale rock – one of the fastest growing of the unconventional sources – has extensive natural gas production in the Barnett Shale of north Texas, widely considered the best gas field in the US.

“An increasing volume of our natural gas is going to come from North America’s rich shale and tight gas sands reserves,” said John Richels, president of Devon Energy. “The progress we have made in producing gas from shale over the past decade is encouraging as we inventory the energy sources we will have available to our economy in the years ahead.”

This good news for US natural gas production is bad news for developers of liquefied natural gas terminals, which invested billions of dollars in facilities to import natural gas a few years ago.

--------------------------
Visa threat for US diplomats visiting Europe

By Sarah Laitner in Brussels

Published: July 24 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 24 2008 03:00

US diplomats could be forced to apply for visas to visit the European Union, Brussels warned yesterday, as a long-running transatlantic clash over entry demands resurfaced.

In a report on international travel rules, the European Commission threatened the retaliation from January next year if Washington fails to extend permit-free entry to the US to citizens of all EU countries.

The move, designed to put pressure on the Bush administration, underlines divisions between Brussels and Washington over US visa policies. EU nations have also clashed on the matter.

Almost all "old" EU countries are part of the American visa-waiver programme. But citizens of 11 of the 12 mostly ex-communist countries that joined the Union from 2004 still require permits to enter the US.

Washington's failure to enlarge the scheme systematically to all the newcomers has rankled them, and they are eager to overcome domestic pressure to resolve the issue.

Irritated by the lack of progress, some of the former communist countries, including the Czech Republic, Estonia and Latvia, this year signed bilateral visa-waiver memoranda of understanding with the US.

The push for such deals - seen as a step towards permit-free entry to the US - sparked alarm in Brussels. EU officials and western diplomats feared that the agreements showed a lack of interest in pushing for a common European approach.

Washington has said that it intends to include more EU countries in its visa-waiver programme this year. But the Commission claimed yesterday that "no tangible progress" had been made in efforts with the US.

Jacques Barrot, the Frenchman who is EU security commissioner, said: "It is unacceptable that nationals from some third countries can benefit from visa-free travel to the EU while some of our fellow EU citizens can't travel visa-free to those countries."

EU countries would have to approve any move to impose visa demands on US diplomats.

While "old" member states supported equal treatment for all EU nations over US entry permits, it was too early to say how much backing retaliatory action would receive, European diplomats said.

Washington says countries can only join its visa-waiver programme once they have met specific security and migration requirements.

---------------------------
US bids farewell to era of Model T

By Bernard Simon in Richmond, Indiana

Published: July 24 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 24 2008 03:00

Peter and Sally Kable, a retired couple from Kiama, New South Wales, are taking a typical US road trip this summer. Starting in California, they have travelled halfway across the country since early June, arriving this week in the sleepy farming centre of Richmond, Indiana.

What makes the Kables unusual is that they are driving a 1915 Model T Ford, which Mr Kable has fitted with an exact replica of an outdoor camper - including two comfortable beds - made by the St Louis brewer Anheuser-Busch during Prohibition in the 1920s.

The Australian couple are in Richmond with about 900 other Model T owners to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the car that, by common consent, changed the world.

By a twist of fate, the festivities coincide with arguably the biggest upheaval in the motor industry since Henry Ford put longdistance transport within reach of the middle class.

"The Model T was the icebreaker for industrial America," says Billy McGuire, an environmental science teacher from Richmond, Virginia, who owns six of them. Now, he adds, "we're at the precipice of another change like that".

Soaring fuel prices and rising concern about climate change have swept up the automotive industry in a race to devise cheaper and cleaner alternatives to the internal combustion engine. Success could bring about the biggest changes in mass transport since the Model T.

The Tin Lizzie had an enormous impact on modern society. Douglas Brinkley, a history professor at Rice University in Houston and author of a book on Ford, says that "psychologically, the Model T turned people outwards from cities", spawning highways, suburbs and shopping malls.

Thanks to the world's first moving assembly line, Ford brought down the price of a Model T from $850 in 1908 to $260 in 1925.

Its genius extended to selling not only finished cars but also a basic chassis. Cabinet-makers across the country built vehicles to fit local residents' needs.

Those on display in Richmond this week include a fire engine, a tractor, a snowmobile and a "pop-up camper" that Mr Ford used to take his friends on camping trips.

What is more, says Mr Brinkley, "Ford put the American flag around the world". By 1920, four out of every 10 cars were produced outside the US.

Yet much of the Model T's legacy is being questioned. Mr McGuire notes that land and resources seemed limitless in the early days of the car, making energy shortages and global warming very distant concerns.

Now, he says, "America is addicted to gasoline like a crack addict to crack. We're reaching the boundaries of how open and infinite the system is."

A more immediate challenge for the industry is the dramatic slide in sales in the world's biggest car market as cash-strapped Americans turn their backs on gasguzzling pick-up trucks and sport utility vehicles.

Few are bleeding more red ink than Ford, still controlled by the founder's descendants. It was overtaken by Toyota last year as the number two carmaker in US sales.

Even as Model T owners in Richmond sing the praises of their vintage cars, several bemoan how Ford has strayed from the affordable cars that were its hallmark for most of the 20th century.

The carmaker is expected to announce today, in tandem with its second-quarter results, that it will convert several North American truck plants to producing cars.

The Model T was also no model for today in terms of fuel consumption. With a low-compression engine and many parts made from heavy cast steel, it achieved about 20 miles to the gallon, far thirstier than many vehicles now on the road. The four-cylinder version of Ford's current family sedan, the Fusion, averages 24 miles per gallon.

If research bears fruit, the car of the future will use little or no petrol, which could lead to other profound changes.

Rick Wagoner, General Motors chief executive, notes the shape of cars as we know them may change if there is no longer a need for a block of iron and aluminium under the bonnet. This is the first part in an FT series on how a century of mass-market automobiles has changed America. The second part, on why the structure of American cities makes any mass switch to public transport unlikely, appears next week.

--------------------------
De Beers loses its sheen in economic slowdown

By Rebecca Bream

Published: July 23 2008 19:22 | Last updated: July 23 2008 19:22

De Beers, the world’s largest miner of rough diamonds, warned that the US economic slowdown was affecting demand for gems but said there was still a shortage of good quality stones.

The private company, which is 45 per cent-owned by UK-listed mining group Anglo American, saw a slight drop in diamond production in the six months ending June 30 after the sale of two South African mines. But a 10 per cent rise in diamond prices boosted revenues to $3.74bn (£1.86bn), compared with $3.4bn in the same period of 2007.

About two-thirds of the group’s gems are mined in Botswana, and Gareth Penny, chief executive, said its operations there had not yet been significantly disrupted by the power shortages in southern Africa.

In South Africa, which accounts for just under 30 per cent of De Beers’ diamond production, the group had lost about a week’s production because of the country’s power cuts, forcing De Beers to invest in back-up generators for its mines.

About half of the world’s diamond jewellery is sold in the US and De Beers said the retail market would be “challenging” in the light of the US slowdown.

Mr Penny said demand for diamonds in Europe and North America was “flat”, especially at the cheaper end of the market.

However, he added that demand was “polarised between the larger, better-quality goods and the small- er stones”, with demand for the most expensive diamonds staying strong, especially in China, India, Russia and the Middle East.

“The high end has been very strong this year,” Mr Penny said. “The number of high-net worth individuals around the world is growing and they are increasingly attracted to our product.”

He added that there was a shortage of supply of larger gems, and although prices went up by 10 per cent on average in the first half, larger gems went up by “much more than that”.

FT Comment

De Beers is an iconic brand that is intricately linked to the history of the Anglo American group. However, its importance to its parent company has been overtaken by less glamorous products such as copper and iron ore. Diamonds were the smallest earner of Anglo’s six business divisions last year, contributing $239m of underlying earnings compared with $3.1bn from the base metals division and $605m from ferrous metals. But Anglo continues to see diamonds as a core business and will keep backing De Beers for the foreseeable future. De Beers is expecting its production volumes to pick up as new mines in Canada come on stream, and in spite of the gloom surrounding the impact of a US slowdown on jewellery demand, the group is optimistic about long-term diamond prices.

-------------------------
A global agency is needed for the energy crisis

By Mohamed ElBaradei

Published: July 24 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 24 2008 03:00

World leaders need to take action on the energy crisis that is taking shape before our eyes. Oil prices are soaring and it looks less and less likely that this is a bubble. The price of coal has doubled. Countries as far apart as South Africa and Tajikistan are plagued by power cuts and there have been riots in several nations because of disruptions to electricity. Rich states, no longer strangers to blackouts, are worried about security of energy supply. In the developing world, 1.6bn people - about a quarter of the human race - have no access to electricity.

Fundamental changes are under way in the energy field the significance of which we have not yet fully grasped. Global demand for energy is rising fast as the population increases and developing countries undergo dramatic economic growth. The International Energy Agency says the world's energy needs could be 50 per cent higher in 2030 than they are today. Yet the fossil fuels on which the world still depends are finite and far from environmentally friendly. Serious thought needs to be given now to creating viable alternatives. The need for co-ordinated political action on energy and related issues - climate change and poverty, to name but two - has never been more acute. Yet there is no global energy institution in which the countries of the world can agree on joint solutions to the potentially enormous problems we see emerging.

We have a World Health Organisation, two global food agencies, the Bretton Woods financial institutions and organisations to deal with everything from trade to civil aviation and maritime affairs. Energy, the motor of development and economic growth, is a glaring exception. Although it cries out for a holistic, global approach, it is actually dealt with in a fragmented, piecemeal way. A number of institutions focus on energy, but none with a mandate that is global and comprehensive and that encompasses all energy forms. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has just 13 members and deals exclusively with oil - from the producers' perspective. The IEA represents the 27 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries from the consumers' viewpoint. Only 51 countries, almost all in Europe and Asia, have signed the Energy Charter Treaty, whose focus is limited to issues such as trade, transit and dispute settlement. The United Nations co-ordinating mechanism, UN-Energy, is barely four years old. It has 20 member agencies, an indication of how fragmented the UN's energy activities are. UN-Energy has no budget or authority and serves as a modest forum for discussion and information-sharing.

So does the world really need yet another international organisation? Frankly, yes. A global energy organisation would complement, not replace, bodies already active in the energy field. It would bring a vital intergovernmental perspective to bear on issues that cannot be left to market forces alone, such as the development of new energy technology, the role of nuclear power and renewables, and innovative solutions for reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

A global energy organisation could provide authoritative assessments of global energy demand and supply and bring under one roof energy data that are now dispersed and incomplete. It could speed the transfer of appropriate energy technology to poor countries and give them objective advice on an optimal energy mix that is safe, secure and environmentally sound.

Such a body could develop a global mechanism to ensure energy supplies in crises and emergencies, and help countries run their energy services and even do it for them temporarily after a war or natural disaster. And it could co-ordinate and fund research and development, especially for energy-poor countries whose needs are often overlooked by commercial R&D.

The need for joint action to develop long-term solutions to the looming energy crisis is now undeniable. It is difficult to see how this can be done without an expert multinational body, underpinned perhaps by a global energy convention, with the authority to develop policies and practices to benefit rich and poor countries alike, equitably and fairly. We need to act before crisis turns into catastrophe.

Even the pessimists believe we still have at least a few decades before the oil on which the world's prosperity is built starts to run out. Let us use that time wisely to develop long-term solutions to the world's energy needs that will benefit all humankind.

The author is director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. This article represents his personal views

--------------------------
French parliament adopts law ending 35-hour week
AFP
AFP - Thursday, July 24 12:07 am

PARIS (AFP) - The French parliament adopted a major economic reform that effectively ends the country's mandatory 35-hour work week, in a Senate vote late on Wednesday.
(Advertisement)

The bill was supported by the upper house's right-wing majority of President Nicolas Sarkozy's party but opposed by the opposition Socialists.

Senators also adopted other key reforms which change rules on strikes, tighten criteria for unemployment payments, and free up the economy with plans aimed at bringing down the cost of living by boosting competition.

The measures were approved by the National Assembly lower house earlier this month and now become law with the backing of the Senate, where Sarkozy's right-wing UMP party has a majority.

The reform most contested by the opposition Socialists and by trades unions is the move to let companies ditch the 35-hour work week, a measure brought in by a Socialist government 10 years ago and denounced by conservatives as a drag on France's competitivity.

The new law maintains the working week at 35 hours but gives businesses the right to negotiate directly with employees to decide their working hours.

The 35-hour week was aimed at cutting unemployment and the French statistics institute INSEE said it created 350,000 new jobs between 1998 and 2002, but at the cost of billions of euros in state aid to companies.

Public opinion polls show the French still view the 35-hour work week as a progressive measure that they do not want to part with.

The bill concerning the unemployed which passed the Senate Wednesday night obliges jobseekers to accept the third "reasonable" job offer made to them, failing which their unemployment benefits would be stopped.

Another controversial measure approved by senators forces schools to look after children in school premises when teachers are on strike. It also obliges workers to hold "preliminary negotiations" with employers before launching strike action.

Critics say the law undermines the right to strike.

Sarkozy announced the proposed reform on May 15, the day of national education mobilisation to protest against cutting 11,200 positions at the start of the next school term.

An economic bill approved by the Senate is dubbed the Law on the Modernisation of the Economy (LME), which has a series of measures to boost economic growth and purchasing power while curbing inflation and keeping state costs to a minimum.

Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said the LME could help boost purchasing power by a possible "1,000 euros (1,500 dollars) per year and per household starting in 2009."

The government also hopes the reform will create 50,000 jobs by the end of next year and increase economic growth by 0.3 percentage points each year.

-----------------------
背後に上場企業創業者一族の愛憎劇ーー預金者のカネを引き出させないみずほ銀行

カテゴリ: 銀行犯罪関連 :
執筆者: Yamaoka (3:15 pm)

　ある日、自分の預金通帳のカネを引き出しに行ったら、それができない。驚いて、行員に問い合わせたら、「内容証明郵便が届きまして、真の預金者は自分だという方が現れたからです」と言われて納得できるだろうか。

　納得どころか、内容証明郵便一つで、預金を凍結されるなど、どう考えてあり得ない。
「預金者が亡くなって、正当な相続人が預金を下そうとしても、様々な手続きを経なければ不可能。下ろせるまでにはそれなりの日数がかかる。当然ながら、預金者の権利が最優先です。それが内容証明１通で凍結されるなど、あり得ないことです」（元銀行マン）

　こんなことが罷り通るなら、誰でもこの手口で預金者を困らせることができる。

　野村證券吉祥寺支店（東京都吉祥寺市）の同じ預金者の口座も、同様の内容証明の通知により一時、凍結された。だが、さすがにこんなことが罷り通るわけがなく、現在は預金者側の主張を聞き入れ、凍結は解除されている。

　現実にこんなことが起きていた銀行とは、みずほ銀行石神井支店（東京都練馬区）。

　昨年９月から、いまも凍結されており、この口座には毎月の給料を振り込まれていたため、預金者は日々の生活にも事欠く有様なのだ。

　なぜ、こんなことが起こり得たのか。

（冒頭左写真＝問題の口座の預金通帳。右写真＝みずほ銀行本店）
http://accessjournal.jp/modules/weblog/index.php?user_id=8

--------------------------
中国産ふぐ偽装会社は、安倍晋三元首相地元の官製談合疑惑企業

カテゴリ: 安部晋三 : 地元疑惑（下関市） : し尿処理談合疑惑 :
執筆者: Yamaoka (1:15 am)

　山口県下関市といえば、ふぐの産地として有名。そして安倍晋三元首相の地元でもある。

　その下関市に本社を置く水産物加工卸会社「エツヒロ」（森敏一社長＝写真）が、中国産の養殖とらふぐを国産と偽って販売していたとして、農水省は７月22日までに日本農林規格（ＪＡＳ）法違反の疑いで長門市の同社工場を立ち入り調査。23日には是正勧告を行った。

　これだけ見れば、いま流行（？）の食品偽装の一つに過ぎない。だが、このエツヒロが他の偽装会社と少々違うのは、森社長は卸会社、ふぐ料理店を営む一方、本紙既報のように、汚水処理装置の製造・販売会社も営み、しかも安倍氏の“国家老”と言われる江島潔氏（横写真）率いる下関市政にガッチリ食い込み、官製談合疑惑にまで関わっている事実。

----------------------------
地デジ専用チューナー、生活保護世帯に支給　総務省が総合対策

　地上デジタル放送への完全移行まであと3年となった24日、総務省は推進に向けた総合対策を公表した。生活保護世帯に専用チューナーを給付することが柱。相談を受ける支援センターをすべての都道府県に置く方針も盛り込んだ。2011年7月24日以降、現行のアナログ放送は終了する。

　生活保護を受けているのは06年度時点で約107万世帯。来年度から2年かけてチューナーを無償で支給するほか、必要に応じて地デジを受信するためのアンテナ改修費も援助する。必要経費は最大で400億円になると総務省は見込んでいる。

　公的な支援センターは今秋に全国10カ所程度に置き、来年度初頭には各都道府県に少なくとも1カ所設置する方針だ。

-------------------------
ドイツ証券会長に金成氏　三菱ＵＦＪ銀顧問から転身

　独銀最大手ドイツ銀行の日本拠点であるドイツ証券は23日、橋本徹会長（73）が退任し、後任に三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀行顧問の金成憲道氏（61）を10月1日付で迎える人事を固めた。24日にも発表する。

　金成氏は三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀の米子会社、ユニオンバンカル・コーポレーション（ＵＮＢＣ）の会長を近く退任する。

--------------------------
ドイツ証券、金成氏の会長就任を正式発表

　独銀最大手ドイツ銀行の日本拠点であるドイツ証券は24日、10月1日付で橋本徹会長（73）が退任し、後任に三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀行顧問の金成憲道氏（61）を迎える人事を正式発表した。

　三菱ＵＦＪフィナンシャル・グループ（ＦＧ）は金成氏が米子会社、ユニオン・バンク・オブ・カリフォルニア（ＵＢＯＣ）とユニオンバンカル・コーポレーション（ＵＮＢＣ）の会長を23日付で退任したと発表。後任には三菱ＵＦＪＦＧの大森京太副社長が就いた。

　金成氏は旧東京銀行出身で、今春まで三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀副頭取として国際部門を統括。橋本氏は旧富士銀行で頭取、会長を歴任。2003年からドイツ証券会長を務めている。

---------------------------
ウィーン証取と東証が協力協定　上場投信を中東欧から誘致

　東京証券取引所は月内にも、オーストリアのウィーン証券取引所と相互協力協定（ＭＯＵ）を結ぶ。経済発展が続く中東欧の株価指数連動型ＥＴＦ（上場投資信託）を東証に誘致するとともに、東証株価指数（ＴＯＰＩＸ）のＥＴＦを現地で上場させるなど、相互連携策を検討する。

　ウィーン証取はルーマニア、クロアチア、ブルガリアなど中東欧の証券取引所と関係が深い。東証は同証取と協力協定を結ぶことで、中東欧の株式市場に連動したＥＴＦを持ち込める機会が得られると判断。中東欧の株式市場が将来拡大すれば、日本の投資家の関心も高まると見ている。

--------------------------
東京海上、米損保を5000億円で買収　海外展開を加速

　東京海上ホールディングスは23日、年内をめどに米中堅損保のフィラデルフィア社を47億500万ドル（約5000億円）で買収すると発表した。中核子会社の東京海上日動火災保険を通じて全株を取得、完全子会社として、米市場に本格的な足がかりを築く。国内金融機関による海外企業の買収では過去最大。国内市場が伸び悩む中で海外展開を加速する。

　みずほコーポレート銀行が米メリルリンチに1300億円、三井住友銀行が英バークレイズに1000億円強を出資するなど、日本勢による海外金融機関への積極投資が目立っている。東京海上の買収額は1980年代後半からの旧第一勧業銀行（現みずほフィナンシャルグループ）による米総合金融ＣＩＴの買収（約 17億ドル）も上回り、これまでで最大の規模となる。

--------------------------
中央省庁の本省若手職員に手当　人事院が検討

　人事院は、中央省庁の本省に勤務する若手の国家公務員を対象に、来年4月から「本府省手当」を支給する方向で検討に入った。8月上旬をメドに示す 2008年度の人事院勧告へ盛り込む方針。本省職員は国会対応など激務が多いことから、人材確保などに配慮した手当の支給が課題となっていた。勧告の内容が実施されれば、課長補佐級以下の職員へ月額俸給（基本給）の2―8％程度を支給することになる。

　本府省手当は、国会答弁の作成や予算編成作業など本省職員特有の職務の「特殊性、困難性」（人事院）に配慮する措置。05年度の勧告で「10年度までに実施する」と方針を示していた。標準的なケースで、課長補佐級で月額俸給の8％程度、係長、係員でそれぞれ約4％、約2％を上乗せする。

-------------------------
羽田空港の国際化、３都県が了承

　羽田空港の国際化を検討する国と東京都、千葉県、神奈川県の協議会が23日開かれ、2010年に羽田空港が再拡張して以降、年間6万回の国際線の定期便の発着枠を設けるなど国土交通省の拡充計画を大筋で了承した。東京都や神奈川県は今後、羽田発着の国際線の便数の上積みを求める方針。国と3都県は今後も協議を続けることを確認した。

-----------------------
(7/23)４―６月期の中小業況ＤＩ、５期連続悪化　６年ぶりの低水準

　中小企業金融公庫総合研究所が23日発表した4―6月期の中小企業動向調査によると、中小企業の景況感を示す業況判断指数（ＤＩ）はマイナス23.6となった。5期連続の悪化で、6年ぶりの低水準。資源価格の高騰を背景に仕入れ価格が上昇していることが響いた。7―9月期の予測もマイナス28.8と一層悪化する見通しだ。

　業種別に見ると、製造業では資源価格の高騰を背景に紙業界や自動車部品業界で大きく悪化した。非製造業でも燃料価格の上昇で水運業や運送業でＤＩが大幅に低下した。集計した27業種のうち、情報通信業を除く26業種でマイナスとなった。

　地域別に見ると、すべての地域でＤＩが悪化した。特に北海道はサミット関連の建設業需要が一段落したことから大きく低下した。

　ＤＩは業況が「好転」と答えた企業から「悪化」と回答した企業の割合を引いた値。調査は中小公庫の取引先1万3448社を対象として6月に実施し、回答率は47.5％だった。

------------------------
脱税：秋山専務理事が防衛コンサル料６千万円、逮捕へ

　社団法人「日米平和・文化交流協会」の秋山直紀専務理事（５８）が０６年までの３年間に、防衛関連企業からコンサルタント料として受け取った約２億円を隠し、約６０００万円を脱税した疑いが強まり、東京地検特捜部は２４日午後にも、所得税法違反容疑で秋山氏を逮捕する方針を固めた模様だ。

　秋山氏は日米防衛関連企業や防衛族議員と密接な関係を持つパイプ役とされる。特捜部は、秋山氏が出資して設立した「アドバック・インターナショナル・コーポレーション」（米ロサンゼルス）などの米国法人にコンサルタント料を支払っていた複数の防衛関連企業から、一斉聴取するなどして資金の流れの解明を進めてきた。

　関係者によると、秋山氏は、山田洋行などの防衛関連企業から受け取った資金が自分の個人所得であることを隠すため、アドバック社など実態のない米国の３法人に入金する経理操作をしていたとみられる。秋山氏側には０４～０６年、協会に支払われた年会費も含めて約４億７０００万円が渡ったとされ、特捜部は経費などを差し引いた約２億円を秋山氏の個人所得と判断した模様だ。

　特捜部は昨年、前防衛事務次官の守屋武昌被告（６３）の汚職事件に絡んで協会を捜索するとともに、米国法人の実態についても調べていた。

　秋山氏は今年１月に参院の参考人招致を受け、山田洋行からの資金提供を否定。同５月には脱税疑惑について、毎日新聞の取材に「心当たりはない。あり得ない」と全面的に否定していた。

　秋山氏は２４日午前、東京都豊島区の自宅前で取材に応じ、脱税疑惑について「僕から言わせればナンセンスな話。国税の指摘も地検の聴取もない」と改めて否定した。

--------------------------
「きぼう」商業利用：宇宙飛行士作業料、１時間５００万円

　宇宙飛行士の作業料１時間当たり５００万円、宇宙への荷物の送料１キロ３００万円－－。宇宙航空研究開発機構（ＪＡＸＡ）は２３日、国際宇宙ステーション（ＩＳＳ）の日本実験棟「きぼう」を、企業の宣伝や研究開発などに商業利用する際の最低単価を明らかにした。これに基づいて、２回目となる来年度分の商業利用テーマの募集を週内にも始める。

　最低単価は同日の文部科学省宇宙開発委員会に報告された。ＪＡＸＡによると、宇宙で実験などを行いたい場合、機材の打ち上げは１キロ３００万円、成果を地球に持ち帰る場合は１キロ当たりさらに５００万円が必要となる。既にＩＳＳの商業利用を始めているロシアの例を推計して算定したという。作業は５分単位、荷物は１０グラム単位から依頼できる。これらの利用料はＪＡＸＡの収入となる。また、安全審査や他の参加国との調整などの実費が別途かかる。

　来年度分の利用は、荷物の打ち上げ総量が１５キロ以内、持ち帰り総量が７キロ以内。宇宙飛行士の作業時間は最大１７時間で、予定期間中にＩＳＳに滞在する野口聡一飛行士を指名することもできる。

　きぼうの有償利用は、科学実験以外の新たな宇宙利用の需要を掘り起こすため、今年度から始めた。菓子メーカーの宣伝や、植物の種を使ったベンチャー企業の教育事業など３件が選ばれた。これまでは「利用者側で価値を提示してほしい」として価格を示してこなかったが、「目安がほしい」という要望が多く、初めて最低単価を公表した。

　３件の利用料は非公表だが、いずれも最低単価を上回っているという。ＪＡＸＡの山浦雄一・事業推進本部長は「提示したのはあくまで最低単価。宇宙利用に、より大きな価値を見いだし、高い価格を示してもらった利用者を優先して選定する」と話した。応募の締め切りは９月３０日。

-----------------------
浅草・三社祭：「宮出し」来年は復活　東京

　毎年５月に開かれる東京・浅草の三社祭を、浅草神社と主催する浅草神社奉賛会は２３日、担ぎ手が神輿（みこし）に乗るトラブルで今年中止した「宮出し」を来年、復活することを決めた。宮出しは、祭り最終日に神社から本社神輿が出る最大の見せ場で、地元では復活を求める声が多く上がっていた。

-------------------------
都内の公立小中学校、耐震化完了まだ17自治体

　東京都内で公立小中学校の耐震化を完了している自治体が、今年4月時点で新宿区など17市区町村にとどまっていることが文部科学省の調査で分かった。あきる野市など7市村は半分以上の学校で強度が不十分だった。政府は改修工事への財政支援を強化しているが、耐震化が終わる見通しの立っていない自治体もある。公立学校は震災時の住民の避難場所になるだけに対応を急ぐ必要が出ている。

　都内全体の耐震化率は76.7％。神奈川県、愛知県などに次いで都道府県で7番目に高い。だが、財政の豊かな区部に比べて、多摩地区の遅れが目立つ。耐震化率が50％以下の7市村のうち多摩地区が6市を占め、区部にはなかった。

　都内で耐震化の割合が最も低かったのは、あきる野市の29.2％だった。同市では「財政が厳しく対応が遅れた。国の補助を活用して早期実施を検討している」（教育部）と説明する。区部の最低は中野区の58.8％。1981年の建築基準法改正で耐震基準が厳しくなる前に建てられた古い学校が9割を超すことが影響しているという。

------------------------
日本土地建物、オフィスビルに3000億円　３年で40棟開発

　日本土地建物は2010年度までの3年間で総額3000億円を投資し、約40棟のオフィスビルを再開発する。首都圏や近畿圏の中心街で延べ床面積1万平方メートル以上の大規模オフィスビルの開発を進める。市況が低迷し始めた賃貸マンションへの新規投資を事実上、見合わせる一方、安定収益が見込めるオフィスビルに積極投資して収益力の拡大を目指す。

　3年間で3000億円の投資は日本土地建物にとっては過去最大規模となる。米国の信用力の低い個人向け住宅融資（サブプライムローン）問題の影響で、欧米系ファンドを通じた日本の不動産市場への資金流入が一服し、オフィスビル価格が落ち着いてきたため積極投資に転じる。

-------------------------
東レ・日産など、「炭素繊維車」を共同開発　４割軽量化

　東レや日産自動車、ホンダ、東京大学などは自動車向けの炭素繊維材料を共同開発する。2010年代半ばをめどに量産技術を確立、車体重量の4分の3を占める鋼材のほとんどを新材料に置き換え現行車より最大4割軽い「炭素繊維カー」の実用化につなげる。ボディーや部品の生産コストを鋼材製並みに引き下げ、車体の軽量化で燃費を約3割改善する。最先端の素材開発で先行することで、環境対応車分野での日本勢の国際競争力をさらに高める狙いだ。

　炭素繊維は現在の自動車の主力素材である鉄に比べ重さは4分の1で強度は10倍。ただ鋼材が1キログラム100円強、アルミニウムが300―400円であるのに対し、炭素繊維は数千円に上り普及が遅れていた。鋼材は主原料の鉄鉱石で大手3社による寡占化が進み今後も価格上昇が予想される。量産余地の大きい炭素繊維との価格差が縮小し、自動車を巡る素材間競争が激しくなる見通しだ。

--------------------------
20代女性の海外旅行離れ顕著に　ＪＴＢ調べ

　ＪＴＢは2007年の海外旅行マーケットの実態をまとめた。それによると10年前に比べ海外旅行に行きたい20代の女性が激減しており、これまで日本人の海外旅行をけん引してきた層の海外旅行離れが顕著になっていることが分かった。

　07年に海外旅行に行った女性に「毎年最低1回は海外旅行をしないと気がすまない」か「海外旅行をしない年があっても気にならない」、どちらに考え方が近いか聞いたところ、「前者に近い」と「どちらかと言えば前者に近い」を合わせた割合が44.1％にとどまった。1997年の海外旅行経験者に対して実施した同様の調査よりも実に30.3ポイントも減少した。

　これに対して、60歳以上の女性の「前者に近い」と「どちらかと言えば前者に近い」と回答した比率は50.0％で、10年前よりも5.6ポイント増えた。

　ＪＴＢでは「若い女性は働く人が増えて海外旅行に行く自由な時間が減っている」と分析、「今後最も有望なのはシニアマーケット」としている。

--------------------------
豪独禁当局、キリンのデアリー社買収案を容認

　オーストラリアの独占禁止法担当当局、ＡＣＣＣは24日、キリンホールディングスによる豪乳業2位デアリーファーマーズの買収案に問題はないとの判断を下した。キリンは傘下の豪乳業最大手ナショナルフーズがデアリーファーマーズを買収する際に、シェアが高くなるとみられる地域では工場などを売却すると提案していた。

　入札の結果が判明するのは8月下旬になる見通しだが、キリンは買収案が当局の承認を得たことでデアリー社買収に一歩前進した。

------------------------
2015年度の建設投資、人口減で15％減に　野村総研予測

　野村総合研究所は24日、2015年度までの建設・不動産業界の予測をまとめた。人口減で住宅や学校などの建設が減ることから、2015年度の国内建設投資は44兆2000億―44兆9000億円と、国土交通省の07年度見通しよりも15％前後減少すると予測した。ピークだった1992年度の83兆 9708億円に比べると、ほぼ半減する計算。同研究所は「市場の縮小に伴い、建設業界では再編や本格的な海外展開が必要になる」とみている。

　国立社会保障・人口問題研究所の将来の人口推計などを用いて試算した。世帯数の増減などをもとに予測した新設住宅着工戸数は、2011―2015年には年平均約90万戸。07年は改正建築基準法施行の影響で前年比17％減の約106万戸と40年ぶりの低い水準となったが、これをさらに下回ると予測している。

-------------------------
Billionaire Schaeffler Fights German Customs in Continental Bid

By Jann Bettinga
Enlarge Image/Details

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Maria-Elisabeth Schaeffler, a former medical student and opera patron, inherited control of Schaeffler Group when her husband died 12 years ago. Today she is leading the battle against Germany's tradition of corporate cooperation.

On July 15, Schaeffler Group made an 11.3 billion-euro ($17.7 billion) bid for Continental AG, Europe's second-biggest tiremaker, after saying it controlled almost 36 percent of the company's voting rights. It is the second unsolicited bid made by Schaeffler, 66, since 2001. Continental yesterday rejected the offer as too low.

Nine years ago, Vodafone Plc's hostile bid for Dusseldorf, Germany-based Mannesmann AG was condemned by then-Finance Minister Hans Eichel, who said Germany's ``consensual model'' had to be protected from ``Anglo-American capitalism.'' Last week, the state premier of Lower Saxony backed Schaeffler's offer, saying it would secure jobs as car sales fall and fuel costs surge.

``Germany is lagging behind on hostile takeovers, companies are usually on friendly terms,'' said Kai Lucks, the Munich-based chairman of the German Federal M&A Association, which represents bankers and others who work on acquisitions. ``Germany is now catching up with what's already common practice in countries such as Great Britain and the U.S.''

The combined company would overtake Stuttgart, Germany-based Robert Bosch GmbH as the world's biggest car-parts supplier.

Schaeffler has entered swap transactions covering 28 percent of Continental's shares, the Herzogenaurach, Germany-based ball-bearing maker said July 15, without providing further details. The company also holds financial instruments that give it the right to buy an additional 4.95 percent and owns 2.97 percent.

Disclosure Investigated

Germany's financial regulator, BaFin, is investigating whether Schaeffler should have disclosed the transactions when it acquired the options. Schaeffler says it did nothing wrong.

Tim Albrecht, a fund manager at DWS Investment GmbH in Frankfurt, who has 500 million euros under management, including Continental shares, said the same rules should apply to options as shareholdings.

``We want fair and common practices here,'' he said. ``The law should be changed.''

Juergen Meyer, who helps oversee 1.4 billion euros at SEB Asset Management in Frankfurt, says investors should be happy Schaeffler stepped in after Continental's shares dropped 33 percent in the past 12 months. Germany's benchmark DAX Index dropped 18 percent in the same period.

``It was very easy for Schaeffler to buy this 36 percent stake in Continental because no one wanted to buy these shares anymore,'' said Meyer, who doesn't own Continental shares. ``All the lemmings were moving in the same direction. There was one smart investor who took the other direction.''

Widow Takes Over

Following the death of Georg Schaeffler in 1996, Maria- Elisabeth Schaeffler and her son, Georg F.W. Schaeffler, became the sole owners of the family auto-parts maker, then known as INA- Holding Schaeffler KG.

Instead of selling the firm after her son opted to focus on his law studies, Schaeffler took an active role in managing the company and helped transform it into the world's second-biggest ball-bearing maker.

In 1998, she hired Juergen Geissinger, a former senior vice president at ITT Automotive, to run the company. Together, they succeeded in buying ball-bearing maker FAG Kugelfischer for 734 million euros in 2001.

Schaeffler and her son have a fortune valued at $8.5 billion, according to Forbes magazine.

Last week, Schaeffler Group offered 70.12 euros a share for Continental, the lowest allowable bid under German law. The shares fell 42 cents to 72.57 euros yesterday in Frankfurt. The company said it wants to acquire a minority stake of more than 30 percent, sufficient to give it board seats and strategic control.

Porsche Bid

A majority holding would trigger a renegotiation clause in a 13.5 billion-euro loan that Continental arranged last year to finance its purchase of Siemens AG's VDO car-components division.

The Schaeffler bid mirrors Porsche SE's surprise announcement in September 2005 that it intended to acquire 20 percent of Volkswagen AG to protect the strategic partnership between the two carmakers. Porsche works with VW to build the Cayenne sport- utility vehicle.

Porsche owned less than 5 percent of VW when it made its offer. The plan set off a struggle for control of Wolfsburg, Germany-based VW between Porsche and the German state of Lower Saxony -- at the time the largest shareholder -- that continues to this day.

Porsche, which is controlled by the Piech-Porsche family, eventually increased its holding to 31 percent, triggering a legally mandatory takeover offer last year. Porsche made the lowest possible bid under German law, which almost all investors rejected.

Door Open

The move freed Porsche to increase its holding piecemeal without having to make the same offer to everyone. Porsche now says it intends to eventually take a majority stake in Volkswagen.

While Continental yesterday rejected Schaeffler's bid, the company said it was willing to talk. An agreement to sell all or part of the company to Schaeffler is ``desirable'' if the price is increased, Continental said in a statement released after a meeting of the company's management and supervisory boards.

``I wouldn't know of any industrial company that could make a counter-bid,'' said Stephan Thomas, a fund manager at Frankfurt Trust Investment GmbH in Frankfurt, who oversees about 2.1 billion euros, including Continental shares. ``Given the current credit- market turmoil, it's unlikely that private equity companies will do so.''

------------------------
朝毎読「部数激減」の非常事態
「毎日」が400万部の大台割れ。生き残るのは部数増の「日経」にブルームバーグと手を組む「産経」か。
2008年8月号 ［ああ火の車の新聞業界］

FACTAブックマークに保存

全国紙の優勝劣敗が一段と鮮明になってきた。「毎日」は今年4月の発行部数（日本ABC協会の調査、以下同）が前年同月より10万部減少、「朝日」も6万部の大幅減。「読売」も1万部近く減った。一方、「日経」は2万部増、「産経」も1万部増と逆風下で発行部数を伸ばした。

別表は、我が国11大紙（全国紙5紙、ブロック紙6紙）の今年4月の発行部数の一覧である。ほとんどの社で「前年比」の欄にマイナスが並ぶが、なかでも突出しているのが毎日。1年前に比べ10万部も減った。5月の部数も前年比で10万部減少している。

----------------------------
旧育英会奨学金、１０億円未回収　税金投入の恐れも

2008年7月24日21時26分

印刷

ソーシャルブックマーク このエントリをはてなブックマークに追加 Yahoo!ブックマークに登録 このエントリをdel.icio.usに登録 このエントリをlivedoorクリップに登録 このエントリをBuzzurlに登録

　財務省は２４日、独立行政法人日本学生支援機構（旧日本育英会）の奨学金について、回収努力が不十分で延滞額が膨らんでいるとして、運用の改善を求めたことを発表した。書類がそろわないなどの不手際で約１０億円が未回収になっており、国民の税金で穴埋めする可能性もある。

　機構の奨学金には無利子貸し付けと有利子貸し付けがある。貸付資金の原資には過去の貸し付けの回収金があてられている。また、無利子貸し付けには国の一般会計予算が、有利子には財政投融資資金がつぎ込まれている。

　延滞金の回収を巡っては０４年、奨学生からの保証料で運営される「日本国際教育支援協会」が代わって弁済する仕組みができた。しかし財務省の監査によると、０８年２月までに７９７件、計１０億２１００万円分について支援協会に弁済を請求できず、宙に浮いていることが分かった。協会に弁済を請求する条件である債務者の住所が分からなかったり、債務者が提出すべき「返還誓約書」が提出されていなかったりしたためだ。

　機構は「滞納者の住所を突き止めるなど努力を続ける」としているが、不可能な場合は一般会計から穴埋めすることになる。

　一方、２４日に財務省が発表した０７年度の財投計画の運用状況によると、年度内運用額は１２兆２５９１億円で、７６年度（約１１兆円）以来３１年ぶりの低水準となった。資金運用が当初計画を下回り、年度内に消化しきれなかった運用残高は２兆１７９３億円。財投計画全体の０７年度末の残高は２４５兆１４５２億円で、０６年度より約３０兆円減った。