The Short View: On sterling
By John Authers, Investment Editor
Published: July 17 2008 00:06 | Last updated: July 17 2008 00:06
Entering this year, one bet seemed clear-cut amid the fog of uncertainty: sterling was wildly overvalued, the dollar had been sold heavily for years and it was time for a reversal. Britons crowding New York department stores were the perfect “sell” indicator for the pound.
So of course, after a first half to the year that has seen the UK economy deteriorate rather faster than the more bearish scenarios had predicted, led by falls in home prices that seem likely only to accelerate, sterling has actually gained slightly on the dollar for the year. It is still oscillating around $2, a landmark that even two years ago seemed scarcely imaginable.
There is a good fundamental reason for this. As the year started, the Federal Reserve had already shaved a full percentage point from its main target interest rate, leaving it at 4.25 per cent. The Bank of England had cut once, and its base rate stood at 5.5 per cent. It was beyond obvious that this gap would narrow, or even invert, drawing more funds to the dollar.
In the event, the Fed was forced by the mounting crisis into slashing rates to 2 per cent, while the UK’s entrenched inflation expectations mean UK rates are still at 5 per cent.
This huge shift in sterling’s favour puts the minimal gain for the pound against the dollar into context and shows its vulnerability. Wednesday’s awful US inflation data, showing the second fastest rise in the headline rate in 26 years, at least had the effect of putting the lid on chances of US rate cuts in the near future.
Sterling overnight rates are now pricing a slight chance of a cut to 4.75 per cent over the next 12 months, having only weeks ago priced in the chance of significant rises. With the UK economy following the downward path blazed for it by the US, the risks seem skewed towards sharper cuts than this – and thus towards a lower value for the pound against the dollar.
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Sovereign funds cut exposure to weak dollar
By Henny Sender in New York
Published: July 16 2008 22:35 | Last updated: July 16 2008 23:24
Some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds are seeking to scale back their exposure to the US dollar in a sign of global concern about the currency.
One big sovereign fund in the Gulf has cut its dollar-denominated holdings from more than 80 per cent a year ago to less than 60 per cent, while China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has been looking to strike deals with private equity firms in Europe as a part of a strategy to reduce its dollar holdings.
Sovereign wealth funds have played a leading role in helping to recapitalise faltering US banks, but have lost money so far on such investments. Continuing market turbulence has further shaken their faith in US policy and policymakers.
Kenneth Shen, head of the strategic and private equity group at Qatar Investment Authority, another Middle Eastern fund looking to do more deals in Europe than the US, aired such concerns publicly at a conference in Hong Kong late last year. “The outlook for the US dollar is a significant issue for investors contemplating US-related investments,” Mr Shen said.
The shift at China’s SAFE is significant because it holds the majority of the country’s $1,600bn in foreign currency reserves in dollar instruments and has lagged behind other governments, such as Singapore, in diversifying its currency exposure. SAFE has been holding talks with Europe-based private equity firms about putting billions of dollars into their latest funds, precisely because these funds are not dollar-denominated, say people familiar with the matter.
By allocating money to Europe-based private equity firms, SAFE could diversify away from the dollar, at least at the margin, without spooking the currency markets and driving the dollar down in a disorderly manner.
In addition, SAFE is encouraging the private equity firms with which it has relationships to make investments in natural resources companies in markets outside the US – in part, to hedge its exposure to the dollar.
A spokesman for SAFE declined to comment.
Behind the scenes, fund officials are questioning the credibility of the Federal Reserve and US Treasury in defending the dollar and maintaining financial stability. Reacting to last year’s collapse of structured investment vehicles, the head of one Middle East fund said: “I thought the problem of off-balance sheet had gone away with Enron.”
Kuwait last year ended its currency link to the dollar, raising questions about whether other oil-rich Gulf states with similar arrangements would follow.
The largest of the sovereign wealth funds, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, is still committed to the dollar. ADIA’s subsidiaries make their investments without taking into account currency risks. A separate ADIA division then decides whether to hedge or not.
As long as the United Arab Emirates – which includes Abu Dhabi – pegs its currency to the dollar, a major departure from the current investment policy is unlikely. Moreover, ADIA staff say they worry that the euro may be at a peak against the dollar.
Still, dissatisfaction with the dollar peg is growing at the Abu Dhabi fund. “We are suffering. We are importing inflation for no reason,” says one ADIA staffer.
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US to open 3.9m acres in Alaska for drilling
By Sheila McNulty in Houston
Published: July 16 2008 22:57 | Last updated: July 16 2008 22:57
The US federal government on Wednesday said it would open 3.9m acres of land in a designated petroleum reserve in Alaska for drilling as a means to help curb rising petrol prices.
“This is welcome news at a time when Americans are paying record prices at the pump,” said C. Stephen Allred, assistant US Secretary for Land and Minerals. “Together with proposed new production from other offshore and onshore areas, these increased supplies will help to stabilise energy costs.’’
The Alaska decision follows one by President George W. Bush on Monday to lift a presidential ban on drilling on the US outer continental shelf, off Florida. That decision still requires Congress to lift a separate ban on the area before the area can be leased for development.
But the Bureau of Land Management, an agency within the US Department of the Interior, said the Alaskan land that will now be offered requires no other approvals and will be up for leasing in the autumn.
The site was set aside decades ago but development was blocked by lawsuits from environmentalists concerned about disrupting wildlife. The government has tackled these fears, making it a condition of the lease by oil and gas companies that polar bears, waterfowl and caribou are protected.
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London attracts record foreign investment
By Bob Sherwood, London and South-East Correspondent
Published: July 17 2008 03:50 | Last updated: July 17 2008 03:50
Foreign investment into London has soared to a record high in spite of the credit crunch, the capital’s inward investment agency will reveal on Thursday.
An unprecedented 178 international companies set up or expanded business in the capital in the year to March, contributing £710m ($1.42bn) to the capital’s economy. They hired 6,152 people, two-thirds more than in 2006-07.
Michael Charlton, chief executive of Think London, told the Financial Times that 2008-09 would be “challenging”, but insisted London was well placed to continue attracting new investment in the next couple of years.
The US remained the largest investor, creating 2,739 new jobs, 44 per cent of the total. India held on to second place with 825 jobs.
The world’s largest economy also contributed 30 per cent of the 178 new projects, up from 134 last year. India and China accounted for 9 per cent, with Australia at 8 per cent, France 7 per cent and Japan 6 per cent.
More than a quarter of the businesses that located or expanded in London were in technology.
LinkedIn, the US online network company, established a base and Finland’s Nokia opened a design centre. Financial and business services accounted for 23 per cent, and 10 per cent were in retail.
Mr Charlton said more Japanese businesses were again seeking to set up in the capital after years of decreasing investment. “Some of the Japanese companies are well funded and do not need to fund their investment through debt. They see the current climate as an opportunity for them.”
Some US regional banks with minimal exposure to the subprime market were also targeting London.
Mr Charlton added: “The emerging markets in particular will be a key focus for us and we are confident the strong leads coming out of Asia-Pacific will continue.” He also saw inward investment potential in the capital’s hosting of the Olympics in four years, saying: “The opportunities around London 2012 will also be significant and we have a strategy in place to leverage this by undertaking a number of initiatives during and after the games in Beijing.”
But there was “some concern” that Indian investment is likely to drop next year, as companies were expected to be tightening their belts.
He also predicted that the number of financial and business services investments would drop to about 18 per cent of total London foreign direct investment this year from 23 per cent in 2007-08.
Boris Johnson, London mayor, said: “Think London plays a crucial role in courting the interest of foreign companies and this is clearly evident, with 178 international investors establishing businesses in the capital.”
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Rolls-Royce plans civil nuclear expansion
By Rebecca Bream in London
Published: July 16 2008 23:16 | Last updated: July 16 2008 23:16
Rolls-Royce, the UK aircraft engine maker, plans to expand its nuclear business to take advantage of the building of more reactors around the world.
The company has been involved in the military nuclear industry in the UK for 50 years, making reactors to power Royal Navy submarines. Now, it sees great growth potential in the civil industry and will on Thursday launch a nuclear power division focused on winning orders for reactor components such as pumps and control systems.
Jonathan Hale, director of business development, said concerns about global warming, energy security and the high cost of fossil fuels meant that nuclear power was growing in popularity and could be worth £50bn ($100bn) in 15 years.
The group’s new civil nuclear division aims to take advantage of this and “in time” could grow to be as big as the group’s marine division, which makes power and propulsion systems for ships and submarines. Rolls-Royce has one business, Data Solutions & Systems, that makes control and instrumentation systems for nuclear reactors, which is worth £50m in annual sales.
The company was also involved in the construction of the Sizewell B nuclear power station in the early 1990s, the last reactor to be built in the UK. Mr Hale said his group’s experience gave it a head start over competitors, particularly at a time when nuclear skills were thin on the ground. “We have more nuclear capability than any UK company by far,” he said, pointing to the group’s supply chain of companies employing a total of 20,000 people.
George Lowe, head of the civil nuclear division, said the group would be able to supply components for several reactor designs and had been in talks with energy companies and reactor manufacturers “for a number of months”.
Mr Lowe said Rolls-Royce was working both for Areva of France and Westinghouse of the US, the two manufacturers that are expected to supply most of the reactors for the next wave of nuclear power plants in the UK. He believed the UK had the chance to be at the forefront of the nuclear renaissance and develop skills and businesses that could be exported worldwide.
“But it all depends on the pace with which the government selects the sites for new reactors and that the planning approvals process goes forward in accordance with recent changes,” he said. If the nuclear industry in the UK grew at a slower pace than hoped, “there are other opportunities for us on a global stage,” Mr Lowe said.
Four nuclear plants are being built in the US, with several more in the planning stages. About 20 reactors are being built in Asia, mostly in China. In Europe, reactors are under construction in Finland and France, with another set to start soon in Bulgaria.
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Funds risk heavy losses from binge investments
By Bernard Simon in Toronto and Henny Sender in New York
Published: July 17 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 17 2008 03:00
Private equity and hedge funds risk suffering massive losses from a binge of investments in the troubled North American automotive industry.
Many of the funds saw turnround opportunities in the sector in 2005 and 2006 when suppliers were squeezed between rising commodity prices, cutbacks by the three Detroit carmakers, and customers’ demands for lower prices.
“This is an industry that too many people have put too much debt into,” says Wilbur Ross, the veteran investor who has stitched together a number of suppliers making such components as instrument panels, headliners and carpets.
The latest casualty is Thomas H Lee & Partners of Boston, which has written off its $200m investment in Progressive Moulded Products of Toronto, a maker of plastic mouldings that is winding down its business.
The biggest potential loser is Cerberus Capital Management, which nominally paid $7.4bn last summer to buy Chrysler, sharing much more than half its commitment with its own investors and about 90 hedge funds. If Chrysler continues to bleed, Cerberus funds could lose $2bn, bankers calculate.
Hedge funds – with their short-term trading mentality and willingness to extend rescue financing – generally face heavier losses than private equity firms.
Moreover, many hedge funds which specialise in lending to ailing companies take big concentrated positions of up to 15 per cent of their funds. Most of the funds invested in the automobile sector when US car sales were more than 16m annually, interest rates were low and it was easy to buy cars with borrowed money.
“Hedge funds thought they were buying into these firms at depressed levels,” says Henry Miller, co-founder of restructuring firm Miller Buckfire, which has presided over restructurings of automobile parts companies. “They thought they could weather the storm.”
But with oil at around $140 a barrel, credit tight and unemployment rising, vehicle sales tumbled to an annual rate of just 13.6m in June, the lowest in 15 years. Suppliers are again having difficulty passing on higher plastics, steel and other raw material costs.
Another big investor in the sector is Pardus Capital Management, which began buying shares in Visteon, a former Ford Motor subsidiary, in spring 2006 when Visteon was trading at around $6 a share.
Pardus is now Visteon’s biggest shareholder with a 23 per cent stake. The shares touched $10 in May 2007, but are now at $2.30. According to Kirk Ludtke, analyst at CRT Capital, liquidity “could become a serious constraint on Visteon’s operations by the end of 2009”, increasing the likelihood of a forced restructuring.
Pardus is also a big investor in Valeo, a French parts maker, and involved in the messy situation at Michigan-based Delphi, which has operated under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection since October 2005. A group led by Appaloosa Management, and including Pardus, originally intended to backstop a rights issue for Delphi. It backed out of the deal in April, and it now looks as if General Motors, which had been expected to provide the bulk of the exit financing, may not fully do so.
The Appaloosa-led group now faces litigation, and may have to pay to get out of its commitments. Appaloosa claims the company did not comply with terms of the agreement. Meanwhile, Pardus recently imposed limits on investors' ability to withdraw money from its funds.
Not all investments that look troubled today may ultimately lead to losses. Centerbridge Partners led a big preferred stock investment in Dana, a chassis maker that emerged from bankruptcy protection five months ago.
Dana bondholders, including Silver Point, Avenue Capital and Davidson Kempner, received both preferred and common shares; the latter have subsequently lost two-thirds of their value.
But the company reduced its debt dramatically and has today's most precious commodity, cash.
“They took seriously the need to restructure, cut a landmark labour deal and their net debt is less than one times their ebitda,” Mr Miller says.
Mr Ross says that his International Automotive Components group, with annual revenues of $5.5bn, is insulated from the turmoil by having only 40 per cent of its business in the US. The group is expanding in China, Japan and India.
He takes the view that, although tougher times may lie ahead, the sector remains attractive in the long term. With carmakers increasingly moving towards global platforms, Mr Ross sees an opportunity for suppliers able to meet their needs around the world. “Being global will be an important competitive factor,” he says.
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Japanese rivals seek car engine of the future
By Jonathan Soble in Tokyo
Published: July 16 2008 23:13 | Last updated: July 16 2008 23:13
Japanese carmakers are lining up behind competing green technologies as they race to develop even lower emission successors to petrol-electric hybrid cars.
A string of recent launches and announcements has clarified the shape of the battle lines being drawn by Toyota – maker of the Prius hybrid and the reigning champion of environmentally friendly vehicles – and rivals such as Honda, Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors.
At stake is the chance to set standards for the next generation of green cars in the same way that Toyota has put its stamp on hybrids – an increasingly urgent goal as expensive oil and concerns about global warming stoke demand for alternatives to petrol.
Big carmakers are only just beginning to produce vehicles that do away with petrol altogether – mostly on an experimental basis, although some versions will be available for sale as early as next year.
At the centre of the technology battle is a debate over two competing power sources: plug-in rechargeable batteries and fuel cells that generate electric power using hydrogen.
Honda’s chief executive Takeo Fukui – a leading proponent of fuel cells – has dismissed batteries as an insufficiently brawny “golf cart” technology.
Honda last month became the first carmaker to offer a hydrogen-powered car to paying customers, leasing its FCX Clarity – whose only exhaust pipe emission is water – to a handful of customers in California.
The company is expanding its range of hybrids but Mr Fukui says that it will be limited to smaller cars and that Honda has no plans to build a battery-only electric vehicle.
Its engineers believe even the latest lithium-ion batteries are subject to fundamental limits that make them suitable only for small cars that make journeys of less than 100km.
According to Mr Fukui, to power a mid-size Accord sedan to its current refuelling range of about 600km, “two thirds of the car would have to be a battery”.
On the other side of the divide, Nissan and Mitsubishi believe the scope for battery improvements is far greater, so all-electric cars will be commercially viable in the near future. Nissan plans to launch an electric car powered by a lithium-ion battery in Japan and the US in 2010. Mitsubishi will be even quicker to market, offering its MiEV ultra-compact in Japan next year.
According to Nissan, the batteries it is developing with NEC, the Japanese electronics group, will give its car a range of 160km and be 80 per cent rechargeable in 20 minutes. “We think a range of 300km or so could be possible in a few years,” Nissan says.
For battery advocates, hydrogen looks like an unnecessarily complex and expensive answer to the industry’s carbon problem.
Honda’s FCX Clarity costs Y100m ($950,000) a vehicle to produce, boosting the case made by critics. Honda admits it will take a decade to bring the cost down to a still pricey Y10m.
Standing above the debate so far has been Toyota, which is busy enjoying the benefits of the hybrid boom. Unsurprisingly for a cautious and cash-rich incumbent, it is covering all the bases in new technology – pushing battery improvements through its joint venture with Panasonic while also developing fuel cell prototypes.
Yet there are signs Toyota is leaning more towards batteries than fuel cells. Its chief executive, Katsuaki Watanabe, has said fuel cells are at least a decade away from becoming a viable technology.
The company is working on a plug-in version of the Prius that will depend more on the electric side of its power sources and has promised hybrid versions of all its cars by the 2020s.
Still, according to Koji Endo of Credit Suisse, Toyota has not committed itself just yet and remains in a position to be kingmaker in the next technology round.
“Toyota has enough money to hedge its bets and move into whichever technology starts to emerge as the winner,” he says.
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A test of India’s confidence
By Joe Leahy
Published: July 16 2008 19:12 | Last updated: July 16 2008 19:12
When Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, decided to push through a nuclear deal with the US last week, the response from his erstwhile communist parliamentary allies was immediate and to the point. “That time has come,” said Prakash Karat, head of the Communist party of India (Marxist). The CPI (M) and its three leftist partners, which strongly opposed the nuclear deal on ideological grounds, withdrew their support in parliament for the ruling United Progressive Alliance coalition led by Mr Singh’s Congress party.
This set the stage for a parliamentary vote of confidence next Tuesday that will decide the fate of the government. If the UPA can survive the vote and emerge with new, more reform-minded partners, the exercise could be the best thing that has happened to the government since it was elected in 2004. For India, it might also finally be a chance to bid good riddance to the communists and their stranglehold over the country’s economic future.
The four main communist parties over the past four years have enjoyed that most privileged of positions: power without responsibility. The leftists have refrained from formally joining the governing coalition, instead using their 59 seats to provide the UPA with the majority it needs in the 543-member national parliament to stay in power. At the same time, they have used their position to exercise an effective veto over any UPA policy that did not fit with their ideology.
The result has been four years of policy stagnation that has left India flatfooted in the face of the economic downturn. On almost every front – infrastructure, reduction of expensive subsidies such as on fuel, or allowing foreign direct investment in retailing and education – the communists have advocated the status quo, even when this is woefully inadequate.
As one illustration, a paper on the CPI (M)’s website written in 2006 recommends stopping the privatisation of India’s airports and leaving their modernisation in the hands of the state-run Airport Authority of India. This was despite the fact that after decades of government management, many of India’s airports are among the shabbiest of any fast-growing economy in Asia. Without a substantial injection of private capital and expertise, they are unlikely to keep pace with soaring air traffic.
The same year, the leftists opposed an increase in retail fuel prices, recommending tax cuts instead. Yet if the government had started raising fuel prices more aggressively in 2006, it might have softened the impact of the present oil crisis. The surge in global crude prices has raised the cost of India’s fuel subsidies to an unsustainable $60bn (€37.8bn, £30bn) a year.
The communists also opposed foreign direct investment in retailing and some on the left have opposed corporate retailing altogether, arguing that it hurts small shopkeepers. This is despite the stimulus large chains could provide towards upgrading India’s neglected infrastructure, to allow the rapid movement of produce and goods around the country.
The left has also been protective of India’s arcane labour laws even though these have deterred many large-scale manufacturers from relocating to a country that offers one of the world’s largest pools of workers. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development last year cited the Industrial Disputes Act as one big problem. This does not allow companies with more than 100 employees to dismiss even one worker from a manufacturing plant without government permission.
As the analyst Mohan Guruswamy noted, the slow growth of manufacturing has resulted in an economy that has moved to a “post-industrial” services economic model without having industrialised. This favours the educated urban middle classes but has left hundreds of millions of semi- or unskilled rural workers stranded in poverty.
Other areas in which the left has dug in its heels include reforms to pensions, banking, insurance and education to allow greater private and foreign participation.
Last but not least, of course, is the nuclear deal, which would give India easy access to US nuclear technology and fuel. India imports more than 70 per cent of its oil and desperately needs access to new sources of energy. Yet the communist parties have opposed the deal on the grounds that it surrenders too much control over India’s foreign policy to that old imperialistic power, the US.
But it would be unfair to blame the left for all of the UPA’s policy inertia. Despite the prime minister’s reformist credentials, Congress has shown little determination to champion market-oriented initiatives, preferring populist measures, such as a $17bn waiver on bank loans for small farmers in this year’s budget. It was only on the nuclear deal that Mr Singh found the stomach to stand up to the left, with some local media even speculating he threatened to resign if Congress did not back him.
If the coalition survives next week’s confidence vote, it will have a small window before general elections due by May next year to show that it has the ability to take India forward and execute some of the reforms awaiting implementation.
But most analysts doubt that the coalition will focus on anything other than drumming up support at the polls. If such doubts prove true, the best Indians can hope for is a new government next year that will be better able to exercise power with responsibility, and deliver the reforms needed to bring prosperity to all of India’s 1.1bn people.
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Japan's Daiwa to tie up with Brazil's Banco Itau: report
AFP
AFP - 2 hours 59 minutes ago
TOKYO (AFP) - Japan's Daiwa Securities Group Inc. will tie up in brokerage operations with a leading Brazilian private bank, the Banco Itau group, a business daily reported on Thursday.
(Advertisement)
In the first full-scale tie-up between a Japanese brokerage and a major Brazilian financial group, the partnership will cover such areas as investment banking operations and the handling of buy and sell orders for stocks, Japan's Nikkei Shimbun daily reported.
The two banks are to announce later Thursday that they have reached a basic agreement, which may evolve into a capital tie-up in the future, the report said.
Brazil has emerged as an attractive market for individual investors in Japan for its rich natural resources such as iron ore.
Banco Itau's investment unit and Daiwa Asset Management Co. plan to create investment trusts covering Brazilian-real-denominated bonds and South American stocks, the paper said.
Daiwa and Banco Itau would also work together on mergers and acquisitions across Asia and South America, the report said.
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大和証券グループ、ブラジル大手銀イタウと提携
大和証券グループ本社はブラジルの民間最大手の総合金融グループであるイタウ銀行グループと証券業務で包括提携する。日本の個人投資家向けの投資信託や世界の未公開企業の株式に投資するファンドを共同で開発する。新興国の中でも高い成長を続けるブラジルの潜在力に着目し、海外事業を強化する。
両社は包括提携の基本合意を17日に発表する。提携内容は(1)資産運用業務(2)株式売買の取次業務(3)投資銀行業務(4)経済・企業調査などの相互提供(5)人材交流――の五項目が柱となる。業務提携の内容が広がれば、将来は資本業務提携に発展する可能性もある。
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厚生年金基金の積立金不足、穴埋めを1年間猶予 厚労省方針
厚生労働省は2007年度中の運用環境の悪化で積立金が目減りした厚生年金基金に対し、積立金の穴埋めを一時猶予する。穴埋めには通常、09年4月から掛け金を引き上げることが必要になるが、これを1年間猶予し企業の負担を緩和する。掛け金の引き上げ猶予は年金運用が悪化した02年度の決算以来、5年ぶり。
厚年基金は会社員の厚生年金に上乗せして企業が独自の年金を給付する制度。毎年度、積立金が年金給付に必要な水準に達しているかを点検し、積立金が一定水準を下回ると掛け金を引き上げる必要がある。格付投資情報センター(R&I)の推計によると、07年度の企業年金の運用利回りはマイナス9.74%と、 5年ぶりのマイナス。多くの厚年基金で09年度から掛け金引き上げが必要になる可能性があった。
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厚生年金改ざん、関係者記憶せず・社保庁が中間報告
厚生年金保険料の納付額の改ざんが17件あったと総務省などが指摘していた問題で、社会保険庁は30日、中間報告をまとめた。社保庁職員への調査では、改ざんに関与したのを認めた事例が1件あったほかは、指摘された事案が古いことなどから、ほとんどの関係者が詳しい状況を記憶していなかったという。
社保庁は調査対象を広げるなどして、引き続き事実の把握に努めるが、身内での調査のため徹底追究できるか不透明だ。
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厚生年金の保険料「脱退手当金」、未払いで訴えの99%が女性
在職中に積み立てた厚生年金の保険料を退職時に一時金として受け取る脱退手当金について、総務省の年金記録確認第三者委員会に「受け取っていない」と申し立てた人の99%が女性であることが28日、わかった。民主党の厚生労働・総務部門合同会議で同省が明らかにした。
申し立ては約1600件あった。主張の多くは結婚や出産で退職した時に一時金をもらっていないのに、社会保険庁には支給記録があるという内容。本人が受け取っていないことを証明するのは難しいのが実情だ。年金確認委は28日までに8件の記録訂正を認めている。
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米住宅債券、国内の民間保有10兆円超 3月末
国内の民間金融機関が保有する米住宅公社債券の残高が08年3月末で10兆円超に達することが分かった。信金中央金庫が7140億円抱え、積極的な海外運用で知られる農林中央金庫は数兆円規模で投資しているとみられる。
米財務省によると、日本全体で保有する米住宅公社債は07年6月末で総額2290億ドル(約24兆円)。直近は不明だが、民間の保有比率は高水準で推移しているもようだ。
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東証上場廃止、最多ペース 完全子会社化や経営破綻相次ぐ
東京証券取引所への上場を廃止する企業が増えている。年初から今月16日までに上場廃止が決まった企業は46社と過去最多だった2002年に匹敵するペース。親会社による完全子会社化に加え、最近は企業の経営破綻も相次ぐ。新規上場も低迷が続き、昨年に続いて上場企業数が減る42年ぶりの事態となる可能性もある。
東証に株式を上場している企業は現在、2412社。有価証券上場規定は企業が上場廃止となる基準を定めている。株式交換などで完全子会社となった場合や、経営破綻した場合、有価証券報告書の提出が遅れたり、虚偽の記載をしたりした場合などが代表例だ。公益や投資家の保護を理由に上場廃止を決めることもある。
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松下、大阪にリチウム電池工場 投資額1000億円、三洋追撃
松下電器産業は大阪市内にリチウムイオン電池の新工場を建設する方針を固めた。総投資額は1000億円を超え、2010年度中に稼働させる。既存3工場と合わせた完成後の生産能力は月産7500万個強で、現行の3倍に拡大する。リチウムイオン電池はノートパソコンや携帯電話向けなどに世界需要が拡大しており、松下は大型投資により首位の三洋電機を追撃する。
新工場は、子会社の松下電池工業が大阪市住之江区の関西電力火力発電所跡地に建設する。ノートパソコン向けの円筒形タイプや、携帯電話などに使う角形タイプの充電可能なリチウムイオン電池を生産する。生産能力は最大で月産5000万個とする。
現在は大阪府守口市、和歌山県紀の川市、中国・無錫にある3つの工場でリチウムイオン電池を生産しており、3工場合計の生産能力は2500万個強。新工場を加えた生産能力は一気に3倍に拡大する。松下は現在、同電池で世界5位だが、増産投資により、世界首位の三洋電機に次ぐ2番手に浮上するもようだ。
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製造業の税負担率が最低 海外利益を還流せず
日本の製造業が国内外で連結利益に対してどれだけ税金を払ったかを示す企業の税負担率が、2008年3月期に38.9%と前の期に比べて0.3ポイント低下し、過去最低になったことが分かった。経営のグローバル化が進み、税率の低い海外で利益を増やしていることが背景にある。法人税率が高い日本に海外利益が還流しにくい構図で、「税の空洞化」が進んでいる。高い税率は海外からの投資を呼び込みにくい一因にもなっており、今後の税制改正論議の焦点になりそうだ。
日本経済新聞社が1595社を対象に、連結税引き前利益に対する税金の負担額の割合を集計した。日本に比べて税率が低い海外で利益が増えると、企業全体の税負担率は法人税や法人事業税などを合わせた日本の実効税率(約40.7%)よりも低くなる。
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日軽金、ベトナムのアルミ原料工場計画から撤退
日本軽金属はベトナムで双日や現地化学メーカーと進めていたアルミニウム原料工場の建設計画から撤退する。約400億円を投じ2011年にも年55万トン規模で生産を始める計画だったが、資材高などで工場建設資金が膨らむ可能性が出てきたことや世界景気の不透明感から採算確保は難しいと判断した。日軽金は子会社の新日軽の再建を優先させる方針で、浮いた資金を活用してリストラを加速させる。
新工場で生産を予定していたのはアルミの中間原料になる水酸化アルミニウム。原料となるボーキサイトを精製して製造し、建材に混入する難燃剤や浄水施設で水のにごりを取り除く水処理剤などに用いる。
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非上場株の価格算定へ指針 中小企業庁、後継者の相続支援
中小企業庁は非上場株式の価格算定の指針を年内にもつくる。業種、資産内容などに応じた具体的な算定方法を「収益還元方式」など4方式を軸に明示する。中小・零細企業の経営者が死亡した際などに、親族に分散しがちな株式の金銭的な価値を示すことで、株式を後継者に集約しやすくする。非上場株の価格が明確になれば、中小企業のM&A(合併・買収)を後押しする可能性もありそうだ。
指針は日本税理士会連合会や日本公認会計士協会、日本弁護士連合会の代表らでつくる中小企業庁長官の私的研究会「非上場株式の評価のあり方に関する委員会」(委員長・岡村正日本商工会議所会頭)がまとめる。税務、法務の関係者が集まって審議し、将来的には国税庁の財産評価基本通達への反映も目指す。
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官房長官、基礎的財政収支の赤字悪化見通し示す
町村信孝官房長官は17日午前の記者会見で、2011年度の国と地方を合わせた基礎的財政収支の赤字額について、政府が1月に閣議決定した「進路と戦略」の中で楽観的なシナリオとして予測した7000億円よりも悪化するとの見通しを示した。
町村長官は「07年度の税収の土台が下がってきているし、08年度も税収を見込むのはなかなか難しい」と指摘。1月の予測について「そこは厳しさがあると思っている」と語った。
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みずほ頭取、不倫辞任?…テレ東巨乳記者と“路チュー”
記者クラブ内でも話題の美人と
メガバンクの一角、みずほコーポレート銀行の斎藤宏頭取(64)が辞任の危機に直面している。同行は2008年3月期に米サブプライム問題の影響をモロに受けて巨額損失を計上し、最終赤字に転落。経営責任を取ろうとしない斎藤氏に対し、行内外から批判が噴出するなか、17日発売の写真週刊誌に斎藤氏の女性スキャンダルが写真付きで掲載されたのだ。お相手は、斎藤氏が社外監査役を務めるテレビ東京の美人女性記者。敵が多いとされる斎藤氏だけに、辞任に向けた動きが一気に加速していく可能性もある。
スキャンダルを報じたのは、写真週刊誌「フライデー」。「みずほコーポレート銀行 斎藤宏頭取 テレビ東京美人記者と“愛欲”不倫」のタイトルで、5ページにわたり報じている。
それによると、斎藤氏は7月8日夕、社用車で銀行などを担当するテレビ東京の女性記者と東京・麻布の寿司屋に向かった。1時間後に店から出てきた2人は近くの路上で熱いキスを交わし、その瞬間の写真もバッチリ掲載されている。その後、2人はタクシーでとあるマンションに向かい、2時間半ほど密会していたという。
不倫報道についてみずほフィナンシャルグループは「プライベートなことなので答えようがない」と話している。
また、女性記者が勤めるテレ東は「プライベートなことですので、会社としてコメントすることはありません。ただし、記者という立場を考えれば、軽率とのそしりは免れないと思います」(広報・IR部)とのコメントを出し、女性記者の不倫を戒めた。
斎藤氏は1966年3月に東大経済学部を卒業後、旧日本興業銀行に入行。営業第6部長などを歴任後、02年4月から再編で誕生したみずほフィナンシャルグループ傘下のみずほコーポレート銀頭取を務めるエリートバンカーだ。もちろん妻子ある身。
その斎藤氏はテレ東の社外監査役でもあり、社外役員を務めている会社の社員と不倫関係に陥ったことになる。
気になるのはお相手の女性記者。「99年にテレ東に入社し、営業局などをへて今月から記者として日銀や兜町(東京証券取引所)などの記者クラブをカバーするようになった」(テレ東関係者)
また、別の同局関係者によると、「彼女が営業局にいたとき、みずほからスポンサー契約を取ってきたことがあった。そのころから面識があったのかもしれない」という。
同じ記者クラブに所属しているベテラン記者は「彼女は30代半ばくらいで、髪を明るめの色に染めています。細身でバストが大きいことが、記者クラブや銀行の広報担当の間で話題になっていました」と明かし、こう続ける。
「斎藤頭取は会社を出た後、対外的に自宅とされている場所には帰らず、夜はまったく取材ができない人物として有名です。ところが、テレ東だけは緊急時でも斎藤頭取とスムーズに連絡がつく。銀行担当記者の間でも、なぜなんだと不思議がられていた」
それにしても、報道機関の女性記者と、取材対象の大銀行のトップとの熱烈キスシーンが写真に撮られるのは前代未聞の事態。その背景について、みずほ関係者はこう指摘する。
「斎藤さんは刺されたんですよ。みずほコーポレート銀を赤字に転落させておいて、トップである斎藤さんは地位に恋々として責任を取ろうとしない。そのことに対する不満がみずほグループ内にうっ積していたところに今回の報道です。テレ東の女性記者と不倫関係にあることは、みずほ内でも一部幹部は知っていましたからね」
金融ジャーナリストの須田慎一郎氏も「みずほコーポレート銀を最終赤字に転落させておいて、責任を取らないのはおかしいという批判はみずほ内に根強くあった。その流れの延長線上に今回の不倫報道がある」との見立てだ。
みずほコーポレート銀の08年3月期決算(連結)は巨額の米サブプライム関連損失を計上したため、556億7100万円の最終赤字に転落した。07年3月期が3365億6900万円の最終黒字だったことを考えると雲泥の差で、斎藤氏の責任を問う声が出てくるのは仕方ないといえる。
3年ほど前の05年ごろ、斎藤氏の女性スキャンダルを示唆したような怪文書が出回ったことがあった。怪文書は斎藤氏の問わず語りのような形式で書かれており、次のような文章がつづられていた。
「あなたの語学力と美貌に魅了された。一回のはずが、二回に、そして…頭では理解していたが、体の下の方がいうことをきかなかった。(中略)赤坂のあの想い出の場所もわれてしまった。前の運転手が誰かに買収された。今の運転手は安心。でもまた車は替えようと思う」
かなり前から、みずほグループ内で「斎藤降ろし」の火がくすぶっていたようだ。今回の不倫報道で、そうした動きが一気に加速する可能性もある。
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放射性物質入りストラップ! 無届け販売の2人を逮捕
放射性物質のトリチウムを使った光る携帯電話ストラップを無届けで販売したとして、警視庁生活環境課は17日、放射線障害防止法違反の疑いで、いずれも広島市佐伯区の無職の男(40)と会社員の女(45)両容疑者を逮捕した。
トリチウムはベータ線を放出し、蛍光塗料と一緒に使うと長期間にわたり発光する。2人は「10年以上光るストラップ」として、「携帯マーカー」の商品名で販売。ストラップ1個当たり規定量の約26倍のトリチウムが使われていたが、すべてが飛散しても、直ちに人体に大きな影響は出ないレベルだという。
生活環境課は2人が今年3月までの3年半で、インターネットで全国の約2600人に約5500個販売し、約1700万円の売り上げがあったとみている。
調べでは、2人は今年2月、トリチウムが入ったガラス管をストラップに加工し、ネットを通じて無届けで千葉県と東京都の男性2人に1個5000―6500円で販売した疑い。
トリチウムは英国から輸入したという。
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丸紅元社員の稟議書偽造:詐取総額、1540億円に 元課長ら4人再逮捕
総合商社「丸紅」の偽造稟議(りんぎ)書を使った巨額詐欺事件で、警視庁捜査2課は16日、米証券大手のリーマン・ブラザーズから273億円を詐取したとして、医療コンサルティング会社「アスクレピオス」(破産手続き中)の前社長、斎藤栄功(しげのり)被告(46)=詐欺罪で起訴=ら4人を詐欺容疑で再逮捕した。架空の病院再生事業名目にだまし取った出資金は総額約1540億円に上り、うち約220億円はア社に渡っていたことが判明した。
他に再逮捕されたのは▽元丸紅ライフケアビジネス部担当課長、山中譲(35)▽元同部嘱託社員、山浦伸吾(35)▽建設コンサルタント会社「ジーフォルム」社長、高橋文洋(61)の3被告。
調べでは、斎藤容疑者らは07年11月、リーマン社に偽造した丸紅名義の稟議書などを示して病院再生事業への出資を持ちかけ、4回にわたり計273億円を詐取した疑い。いずれも容疑を認めているという。逮捕容疑は計371億円となった。
斎藤容疑者らは、詐取した約1540億円のうち約1100億円は出資者に償還金として支払っていた。残る約440億円のうち約220億円はア社に渡り、医療機器メーカーとの取引や社員報酬などに使われたという。丸紅との実際の取引も18億円が確認された。
さらに斎藤容疑者は、上場会社との株交換にも詐取金を充てていた。長野・軽井沢の別荘や交際女性に向けたマンション購入費のほか、山中容疑者と共に高級外車も購入していた。一方、出資金の受け皿となった匿名組合の口座などから約90億円が引き出されているが、使途は不明という。
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業務上横領:ホームレス父の財産を着服、容疑で息子を逮捕--東京・立川
ホームレスだった父親の財産を着服したとして、警視庁捜査2課は16日、東京都立川市錦町、大工、吉岡俊秋容疑者(41)を業務上横領容疑で逮捕した。弟の事故死に伴う示談金など約7000万円の受取人が父親だったことを悪用し、約6000万円を着服していた。「高級車の購入やキャバクラ遊びに使った」と供述している。
父親は85年ごろからホームレスになった。91年には母親が死亡し、95年10月には弟(当時25歳)が事故死した。父親が示談金など約7000万円の受取人だったため、吉岡容疑者は97年に裁判所から不在者財産管理人に選任されていた。不在者財産管理人が財産を処分する場合は家裁の許可が必要だが、吉岡容疑者は無視して弁護士費用1000万円を除く約6000万円を着服したという。
吉岡容疑者は調べに容疑を認めたが、「親だとは思っていない」と供述している。
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コメ消費量:小麦高騰で3年ぶり増加 6月までの1年間
農林水産省は16日、07年7月~08年6月のコメ消費量の速報値が前年同期比16万トン増の853万トンになったことを明らかにした。コメ消費はこれまで長期的な低落傾向を示しており、前年実績を上回るのは3年ぶり。小麦製品を中心とした食品の高騰で、コメに割安感が出ているためとみられる。自給率が94%(06年度)と高いコメの消費拡大は、39%に落ち込んだ日本の食料自給率回復に寄与する可能性もある。
07年7月~08年6月の見通しを昨年7月時点の833万トンから20万トン上方修正した。08年7月から1年間の見通しも12万トン増の831万トンに引き上げる。
総務省の家計調査では、2人以上の世帯のコメ購入数量は今年1~5月の5カ月連続で前年同月を上回った。大手スーパーのイトーヨーカ堂では3月以降、コメの売上高が前年同月比10~20%増で推移している。背景には、政府が半年ごとに見直す製粉業者への小麦売り渡し価格を、昨年4月以降3期連続で値上げし、パンなどの製品価格への転嫁が進んでいることがある。総務省は「食料品全般が値上がりする中、値動きが比較的安定しているコメに需要がシフトしている」と分析する。
一方、政府が昨年、備蓄米を買い増しした影響で、コメ卸業界の品薄感は強まり、6月に売却を再開した政府米の入札では高値傾向が鮮明になった。小売価格上昇の動きも出始めており、流通業界では「割安感が続かなければ、コメ人気は一過性で終わる」との見方が根強い。
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05:00 GMT, Thursday, 17 July 2008 06:00 UK
MoD to double troop compensation
By Caroline Wyatt
Defence correspondent, BBC News
British soldier
The Ministry of Defence is to double the level of compensation offered to the UK's most gravely wounded troops.
The maximum payment will increase to £570,000, on top of a guaranteed income payment for life.
There will also be a smaller rise in the awards to service personnel who have sustained less serious injuries.
The measures are part of a wider package aimed at ensuring personnel and their families are better looked after in areas such as education and housing.
Defence Secretary Des Browne is due to unveil the Command Paper setting out the new strategy to Parliament.
It comes after a Royal British Legion campaign demanded service personnel and their families receive fitting treatment and recognition from government and society.
The forces charity maintained the Military Covenant - which guarantees soldiers fair treatment in return for forgoing other rights - was not being upheld.
University education
Relatives of those severely injured in recent years such as Lance Bombardier Ben Parkinson and Private Jamie Cooper have campaigned for greater compensation.
Ben Parkinson
Until now, the highest lump sum payment to soldiers like Lance Bombardier Parkinson - who lost both legs and suffered brain damage in a landmine explosion in Afghanistan in 2006, was £285,000.
That is expected to be doubled as part of a move that should help at least 80 of the most seriously wounded troops. Another 80 or so men and women with less serious injuries should also see their payouts raised.
The most seriously wounded will continue to receive an annual income on top, meaning that their overall lifetime payout could be more than £1.5m.
The new strategy, co-ordinated across government departments, is aimed at delivering better access to public services and greater welfare support.
Other measures in the Command Paper are expected to include priority access to social housing for the injured, and moves to ensure service personnel and their families retain their place on NHS waiting lists even if they are posted to a new base.
It will also offer free university education for servicemen and women leaving after at least six years of service, as well as better access to school places for service children.
Housing complaints
With the Army struggling to retain key personnel, such as young captains and experienced senior officers, it has become clear that more needs to be done for personnel.
HAVE YOUR SAY
"Any soldier who has seen active service and been involved in a battle should have a lot more from the country than 'greater welfare support'"
Andy Walker, Mainz, Germany
Send us your comments
Britain's forces have been serving on two medium-sized operations for longer periods than anticipated in Iraq and Afghanistan.
A recent MoD survey of opinion across the Army, Navy, RAF and Royal Marines suggested that 47% of the Armed Forces had thought regularly about leaving.
Among the biggest complaints were accommodation and long periods spent away from friends and families.
Some 40% said they were not satisfied with military accommodation, while 55% said they were not satisfied with the maintenance of their accommodation.
The MoD has already said it was committed to high-quality military housing, with £8bn being spent in the next 10 years.
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年金記録8億5千万件、全件照合へ 社保庁方針(1/2ページ)
2008年7月17日21時57分
社会保険庁がコンピューターで管理する年金記録の一部が、入力ミスで原簿(紙台帳)と一致していない問題で、社保庁は17日、10年度から国民年金と厚生年金の紙台帳約8億5千万件すべてとコンピューター上の記録を照合する方針を明らかにした。これまでは、本人から申し出があった場合に照合する方針だったが、批判を受けて転換した。
同日あった自民党厚生労働部会などの合同会議で報告した。社保庁が行った厚生年金記録を約2万件抽出した調査では、紙台帳からコンピューターへの記録の入力ミスは1・4%あった。単純計算すると厚生年金全体で受給漏れの恐れのある記録は推計約560万件にのぼる。国民年金の抽出調査でも、0・13%の記録で年金受給額にかかわるミスが見つかっている。
社保庁はこれまで「時間と金がかかる」として10、11年度は申し出のある場合のみ照合、12年度以降は「受給者について計画的に照合する」としていた。
だが、自民党は、厚生年金のミスが想像以上に多かったことをふまえ、きめ細かい対応が必要と判断。「最後の1人まで正しい年金を支給する」という政府・与党の公約を達成するためにもすべての記録をきちんと照合するべきだ、との主張が相次ぎ、社保庁は方針を転換した。
09年度中にすべての紙台帳を画像ファイル化して、基礎年金番号で検索できるシステムを整備。10年度から申し出のある場合に加えて、受給者、加入者の順にすべての記録を照合する。作業期間は10年間、費用は1900億~2300億円かかると見込まれる。人員も年間約5800~7100人が新たに必要になる。このため、社保庁の後継組織「日本年金機構」の人員計画(正規・有期雇用職員で計1万4470人程度)は、大幅な見直しを迫られる可能性もある。
厚労部会などは作業を早めるため、08年度補正予算にシステム整備費として200億円程度を盛り込むよう求めている。
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三菱商事、豪州の石炭開発権益獲得へ 1300億円投資
2008年7月17日22時15分
三菱商事は17日、同社と鉱物資源最大手のBHPビリトン(英・豪)が折半出資する石炭子会社「BMA」が、豪州で新規の石炭開発権益を取得すると発表した。取得費用は24.5億豪ドル(約2520億円)で、半額を負担する三菱商事にとって石炭事業では過去最大の投資となる。
取得するのは、東豪州クインズランド州で現地の石炭会社が持つ「ニュー・サラジ」プロジェクトの権益。製鋼に用いる高品質原料炭が年約800万トン生産できると見込む。埋蔵量は推計約7億トン。
BMAは原料炭の貿易量で世界シェアの約4分の1を占める世界最大手。
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Russia to set new record with 8-billion-dollar arms sales in 2008
17.07.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/economics/105807-arms-sales-0
Russia already has several contracts ready to ship its military hardware to Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and several other countries. Alexander Fomin, the chairman of the Russian official delegation at Farnborough International Airshow, said that Russia was currently conducting defense cooperation talks with Saudi Arabia. The country is interested in buying Russian transport and battle choppers and air defense systems.
It was previously reported that Rosoboronexport, Russia’s major defense export corporation, was working on a four-billion-dollar contract with Saudi Arabia. The preliminary arrangement to purchase arms from Russia was achieved in November 2007 during Putin’s meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdel Aziz Al Saud in the Kremlin.
Russia also conducts active defense cooperation talks with Venezuela.
“We have several contracts with this country and we plan to sign more of them in the future,” Alexander Fomin said.
Russia also plans to deliver about 70 airborne radars Zhuk-ME for MiG-29 jet fighters of the Indian Air Force.
The Federal Defense Cooperation Service of the Russian Federation said that export shipments of Russian arms and military hardware in 2008 would set a new record for the country and bring the profit of over 8 billion dollars. Last year Russia sold arms in the sum of $7.4 billion. Aviation still takes the lead in the export shipments.
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Europe’s youngest billionaires live in Russia
17.07.2008 Source: URL: http://english.pravda.ru/business/finance/105808-youngest_billionaires_russia-0
Russia's young capitalists are shaking up the ranks of Europe's billionaires and injecting some youth into the elite club. Five years ago, the average age of Europe's billionaires was 62. Today, the age is 58, largely due to the 87 Russian billionaires whose average age is just 46. Without the Russians, the average age jumps back up to 60.
Among Europe's under-40 billionaire crowd, Russian dominance is even more remarkable. Indeed, 13 of the region's 14 under-40 hail from the former Soviet Union. They came of age around the time of communism's fall in 1991, or soon after. Quick to embrace capitalism, these billionaires--all self-made--have quickly become rich by pulling Russia's vast resources from the ground or building homes for the country's burgeoning middle class.
Here are top 5 Russian youngest billionaires
1. Sergei Popov
Net worth: $6.4 billion
Age: 36
The Yekaterinburg native spent the 1990s trading metals in the frosty environs of the Urals and Siberia. Later, as a client of MDM Bank, he became friendly with the company's young owner, Andrei Melnichenko, now a fellow billionaire. After the 1998 collapse of the ruble, Popov convinced Melnichenko to buy stakes in suddenly cheap industrial outfits; nearly a decade later, buyouts and appreciation have made him Europe's richest man under 40.
2. Andrey Melnichenko
Net worth: $6.2 billion
Age: 36
The son of a respected Soviet physicist, Melnichenko studied physics at the prestigious Moscow State University. He eventually dropped out and, in 1993, founded MDM Bank. He later teamed up with Sergei Popov and began accumulating an industrial empire. He is married to Aleksandra Nikolic, a fashion model who was also a member of the Yugoslavian band Models. He spent a reported $2 million last year for J.Lo to perform at his wife's 30th birthday. The couple's Web site says his interests include reading, travel and diving.
3. Kirill Pisarev
Net worth: $6.1 billion
Age: 39
Pisarev studied finance at the Russian Academy of Economics and worked at First Russian Bank in the early 1990s. In 1994, when he was just in his mid-20s, he co-founded construction outfit PIK Group with Yuri Zhukov. The company, known for building high-volume residential housing, went public in June 2007, immediately transforming Pisarev and Zhukov into billionaires. Its IPO was the largest real estate share-issue in European history.
4. Yuri Zhukov
Net worth: $6.1 billion
Age: 38
He founded real estate developer PIK Group with Kirill Pisarev in 1994; the company sold 15% in an initial offering in June 2007, raising $2 billion. PIK's high market valuation led to upward revisions of Russian real estate across the sector. Today PIK focuses on pricey residential and commercial real estate in Moscow and nine other regions. Early in 2008, it concluded a deal with a Singapore sovereign wealth fund to build a new micro-district northeast of Moscow that will include 50 high-rise apartment buildings, hospitals and schools.
5. Andrei Molchanov
Net worth: $4.0 billion
Age: 36
After studying economics at St. Petersburg State University, Molchanov started a residential construction business with a classmate in 1994. During post-Soviet privatization, he bought construction firm LSR and listed its shares in a 2007 offering. Today LSR builds affordable housing and high-end homes in St. Petersburg.
Source: Forbes
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July 17, 2008
Reports: U.S. To Establish Diplomatic Presence In Tehran
by RFE/RL
Newspaper reports this morning are full of speculation that Washington is ready to go ahead with plans to send a small group of diplomats to staff a U.S. interest section in Tehran.
The British daily "The Guardian," says its sources -- which it does not reveal -- say the announcement will come "within the next month." It also says that State Department officials queried about the prospect of opening an interest section refused to confirm or deny the reports.
The U.S. daily "The New York Times" confirms that the idea of posting U.S. diplomats to Iran has been discussed but quotes some administration officials -- again unidentified -- as saying no decision has yet been made.
The press reports add to a sense of momentum around the prospect of a U.S. interest section that has also grown with positive signals from Tehran.
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad told a reporter earlier this week that "we will receive favorably any action that will help to reinforce relations between the peoples."
He added, "We have not received any official request, but we think that the development of relations between the two peoples is something correct."
That mirrored a similar cautiously phrased feeler last month from U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who said: "We want more Iranians visiting the United States.... We are determined to reach out the Iranian people."
If a U.S. interest section were to open in Tehran, it would be the first return of diplomats since shortly after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. It would not, however, constitute a restoration of diplomatic relations.
The United States and the Islamic republic broke off diplomatic ties after U.S. diplomats were taken hostage in Tehran in an early showdown between the two states.
Relations have been hostile since, with Tehran and Washington currently at odds over issues ranging from Iraq, to U.S. charges of Iranian state support of terrorist organizations targeting Israel, to Iran's nuclear program.
News reports quote U.S. administration officials as saying any U.S. diplomats returning to Iran would operate out of the Swiss Embassy, which currently represents U.S. interests in Tehran.
Officials also say privately that any U.S. interests section would engage in activities including issuing visas, so that Iranians would no longer have to go to the U.S. Embassy in Dubai for this purpose.
The sense of movement over establishing a U.S. interest section comes as Washington and Tehran are showing signs of closer engagement over the Iran nuclear crisis.
On July 19, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns will join negotiations to be held in Geneva that include Iran, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China. The talks will be led by EU foreign-policy chief Javier Solana and Iranian nuclear negotiator Said Jalili and focus upon Iran's response to the EU's latest incentives package to end uranium enrichment.
White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters on July 16 that Burns' presence does not signal a change in the U.S. position on the crisis.
"We want to solve this issue diplomatically. We seek to do so. We are going to continue to work with our international partners, in unison, which is what we are going to do on Saturday," Perino said. "But the fundamental, underlying principle is that there will not be any negotiations unless Iran suspends its enrichment of uranium."
Still, Burns will be the highest-ranking U.S. diplomat to directly join the negotiations over the Iran nuclear crisis. Analysts say the missing link in those talks has always been Iranian demands that Washington provide security guarantees as part of any Western incentives to end uranium enrichment.
Solana's spokeswoman, Christina Gallach, said this week that "we are very pleased by the [U.S.] administration's decision. She added: "It is a clear signal to the Iranians of the engagement of the United States and its commitment to a negotiated solution. At the same time, it is a clear message to the Iranians of the seriousness of this exercise."
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