Goodbye Dubai
今年も約半分過ぎたので年初のエントリーを見直してみます。
僕の今年の誓いはタワー・クレーンの銘柄、マニトワーク（ティッカー：MTW)を空売りするというものです。マニトワークのクレーンは「クレーンのロールス・ロイス」という渾名があるくらい頑強な代物で、僕が２０代前半の頃、寝泊りした中東の工事現場で毎日一緒に仕事をした言わば「相棒」であり、ちょうど歩兵が戦車に愛着を持ったり、戦闘機のパイロットが零戦に愛着をもつのと同じノリで、僕もマニトワークには特別の愛着を持っています。だから道端でマニトワークのクレーンを見かけると、おもわず車を止めて近くに寄って、クレーンのオペさんと話し込んだりするのです。
それからマニトワークについてはもうひとつ思い出があります。それは僕の結婚式のときにベストマンを勤めてくれたディビッド君がマニトワーク（もともとはアメリカ中西部の町の名前です）の出身で、彼の結婚式に今度は僕が逆に招待されて、夏草の薫る農場に真っ白い巨大なテントを張って披露宴が開かれたわけです。その光景が今でも鮮明に僕のアタマに残っているのです。
そんなマニトワークですけど、銘柄に覚えがあるからこそ、今の同社株はショートだと思うんです。大体、いまの水準から軽く半値になると踏んでいます。その理由は中東のチャラチャラしたブームは今年で終わりになるだろうと読んでいるからです。
http://www.doblog.com/weblog/myblog/31550/2620813#2620813
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Gulf states urged to rethink dollar pegs
By James Drummond in Abu Dhabi
Published: July 6 2008 20:43 | Last updated: July 6 2008 20:43
Abu Dhabi has reignited speculation that the United Arab Emirates may break its fixed peg to the US dollar. The UAE is one of the world’s main holders of dollar-denominated assets.
In a report published at the weekend, the Abu Dhabi department of planning and economy floated the idea of tracking a basket of currencies in advance of formation of a currency union in the six-member Gulf Co-operation Council.
The department is answerable to the emirate of Abu Dhabi and is not a federal policymaking body. However, it reflects official thinking in the most wealthy of the seven statelets that comprise the UAE.
Inflation in the UAE runs at 11 per cent and is higher elsewhere in the Gulf. The dollar peg means Gulf central bankers have to match the interest rate moves of the US Federal Reserve and thus have only limited tools with which to curb inflation.
“Although the UAE has officially made it clear that it would not de-peg its currency from the flagging US dollar, international financial institutions as well as experts and analysts have maintained that the UAE would do well [to float] its currency as a means [of] curbing inflation,” the report said.
Qatar and the UAE are usually thought to be the most likely states to quit the dollar peg. Speculation mounted last year that the UAE was about to break with the dollar after ambiguous comments by Sultan Bin Nasser Al Suwaidi, central bank governor, but the authorities acted to deny it.
Of the GCC states, only Kuwait manages a currency basket dominated by the dollar but it can decide its own interest rate policy. Inflation in Kuwait is lower than in the other GCC states.
“GCC states need to peg against a basket of world currencies, taking into account the latest trading patterns, which tend to be bent toward the eurozone and Asia,” the Abu Dhabi department said.
“That the Gulf states continued to have fixed-dollar exchange rates, even as the dollar continues to decline, causes greater harm to the Gulf countries,” it said.
Analysts did not believe a change in the UAE’s currency administration was imminent, although the report clearly reflected a strand of thinking. Simon Williams, economist at HSBC in Dubai, said the report showed a preference for joint action over unilateral action.
“The case for reform of the GCC currency regimes is strong but we don’t anticipate change taking place in the near-term. The report may indicate that debate is ongoing but I don’t take it as a sign that change is nigh,” Mr Williams said.
The UAE yesterday said that it was forgiving up to $7bn (€4.5bn, £3.5bn) in principal and arrears of Iraqi debt to help Baghdad with reconstruction. The announcement coincided with a visit to Abu Dhabi by Nouri al-Maliki, Iraqi prime minister, and with confirmation that the UAE will send an ambassador to Baghdad two years after one of its diplomats was kidnapped there.
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Hopes rise for progress on Tehran talks
By James Blitz in London and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran
Published: July 6 2008 19:36 | Last updated: July 6 2008 19:36
Iran’s top security negotiator will this month meet Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, amid continuing hopes in western capitals that Tehran will soon begin formal negotiations over its nuclear programme.
As they studied Iran’s response to an international package of incentives offered to the regime if it suspends uranium enrichment, senior western diplomats said Tehran’s answer was confusing.
They said its written response to the international community’s offer, in the form of a letter from foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki, was negative in tone and contained no indication that Iran would suspend uranium enrichment as the west demands.
The diplomats insisted that a telephone conversation on Friday between Mr Solana and Saeed Jalili. Iran’s top security negotiator, had been positive. They said the call left open the possibility that the Iranians might soon enter into talks over their uranium enrichment programme.
According to two senior diplomats, Mr Jalili told Mr Solana on Friday that he was prepared to meet him in the third week of July. Mr Jalili was reported to have said that, at that meeting, Iran would explore the possibility of beginning negotiations over its nuclear programme.
“All told, what we have is a confusing response, which suggests that the Iranians are holding an internal debate over what line to take,” said a senior western diplomat.
A senior western diplomat in Tehran said the foreign minister’s letter did contain some positive elements. The letter, parts of which were read to the Financial Times by the diplomat, specified that Iran was “ready to start negotiations” to reach “a comprehensive co-operation agreement”.
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Top UK scientist pushes for GM crops
By Fiona Harvey and George Parker
Published: July 6 2008 23:33 | Last updated: July 6 2008 23:33
Genetically modified crops hold the key to solving the food price crisis, the government’s former chief scientific adviser has said.
The intervention by Sir David King, one of the UK’s most influential scientists and the government’s top science official until the end of last year, comes amid growing signs that GM, long viewed with suspicion by consumers and some governments, is being rehabilitated as affordability is weighed against ethical or safety considerations.
Speaking in the wake of Nestlé’s call for the European Union to review its opposition to GM, and hints from Phil Woolas, environment minister, that a rethink could be on the cards, Sir David told the Financial Times: “There is only one technology likely to deliver [the yield increases needed] and that is GM.”
However, Gordon Brown signalled a reluctance to make the case for genetic modification on Sunday. A Cabinet Office paper on food to be published on Monday calls for the removal of “productivity restrictions” but insiders damped down suggestions it presaged a big push for GM.
“He has always believed that the debate needs to be led by science, not by politicians,” said one of Mr Brown’s aides. “You can talk about it all you like, but it’s no good if people don’t want to eat it.”
Sir David said the need to produce more food was pressing. “If you take the pressure of burgeoning population ... we need a third green revolution,” referring to two waves of innovation in agriculture that helped to increase crop yields sharply in Asia in the past 50 years.
Factors such as changing diets, global warming and pressure on fresh water supplies meant even if the food price crisis eased, the long-term prospects for producing enough food without new biotechnology were poor, Sir David said. Ordinary plant breeding programmes could not produce varieties fast enough.
“We need more crop per drop [of water] because of the fresh water problem. Unless you move into plant technologies to develop these crops, food provision is not going to increase,” he said. “The future lies there [with GM]. And this is urgent.”
Only GM crops could be bred with enough tolerance of drought and salt to survive the problems caused by climate change and increasing pressure on the world’s scarce supplies of fresh water, he said. Any system for using GM crops should be “properly regulated” by governments.
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German cheer amid the economic gloom
By Bertrand Benoit in London
Published: July 6 2008 23:35 | Last updated: July 6 2008 23:35
On a visit to London late last week Peer Steinbrück could allow himself a moment of cheerfulness.
Fresh from having settled a tough budget round, Germany’s finance minister could take comfort in the fact that so far Europe’s biggest economy is weathering the global financial storm, rising oil prices and appreciating euro better than many of its neighbours. It makes a marked contrast from the data and headlines greeting Alistair Darling, his UK counterpart, whom Mr Steinbrück met last week during a trip that also saw the tennis-loving minister stop off at Wimbledon.
The market-friendly Social Democrat displays none of the impatience that has earned him the reputation as one of the more irascible members of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling team, offering instead a sober yet relaxed assessment of Germany’s economic outlook.
Asked about the impact of oil prices on future growth, he says: “Nobody can figure out what it means in the mid-term.”
At the start of this year the Christian Democrat-led grand coalition reckoned on a growth rate of 1.7 per cent. “Now the president of the Bundesbank told the cabinet it might be 2 per cent, to my surprise,” says Mr Steinbrück. “For my 2009 budget, I estimated growth at around 1.2 per cent, which accounts for all the downside risk ... Some people say it might be 1.4 or 1.5.”
He is adamant he will not panic, for instance by cutting fuel taxes. The downside risks of inflation and high commodity prices need to be compensated for by improving growth potential through investing in research, education and technology-based businesses.
Though unwelcome, the financial crisis, he says, vindicated Berlin’s calls for more financial market transparency during its chairmanship last year of both the European Union and G8. “I was disappointed that I could not get support from most of my colleagues. Five months later, when we were very much surprised by this financial crisis, the conditions changed.”
Mr Steinbrück books as a German success the “remarkable” decision by G7 finance ministers in April to endorse the Financial Stability Forum’s recommendations on market transparency.
“Whenever people tell you these risks should be overcome by restoring market mechanisms, I disagree. Because the market is obviously not so self-disciplining that such a deep financial crisis could be prevented. There is a market deficit,” he says.
A robust critic of German banking executives – whom he once described as “snooty” – he is now satisfied that his country’s banks are learning their lesson.
“The financial crisis is not over,” he warns. “Yet the German banking sector has understood that disclosure of all the risks is absolutely necessary to rebuild public confidence. As far as I can see they are pursuing this strategy and fulfilling their promises.”
The subprime storm, he insists, was no indictment of Germany’s three-pillar banking system with its commercial, co-operative and public-sector regional banks. But he admits the latter need radical restructuring.
“They have to talk about their business models and then they can start talking about consolidation. But consolidation is necessary,” he says, adding that some should open themselves to private investors. One weakness of the German economy has been consumers’ persistent refusal to spend. “I was very much hoping domestic demand would go up this year, but inflation prevented that,” he says.
This is one reason why he and cabinet colleagues applauded the decision of the European Central Bank to raise interest rates last week. But this concern does not equate to an admission that he made a mistake with his much-criticised decision to raise value-added tax.
One area where Mr Steinbrück is on the defensive is the weakness of his Social Democratic party, which, opinion polls suggest, is heading for a rout at next year’s election.
“The leadership has made mistakes. We are not talking about politics, we are talking about our own party.”
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Köhler warning to Germany’s business ‘elite’
By Hugh Williamson in Berlin
Published: June 18 2008 02:11 | Last updated: June 18 2008 02:11
Executive greed and scandals over corporate spying could trigger a “vicious circle” of popular distrust of Germany’s business elite, the country’s president has warned.
Horst Köhler, who last month said global financial markets had become a “monster” in need of control, on Tuesday stepped up his criticism of free-market excesses in an attack on over-inflated salaries, tax evasion and spying on staff.
Delivering his annual Berlin address, the president – a former head of the International Monetary Fund – said it would “take a long time to repair the damage done to public trust in the business elite by incorrect behaviour by leaders of some German companies”.
He did not name any companies but the country has this year seen a series of scandals that have shaken support for Germany’s social market economy. Telecommunications group Deutsche Telekom is facing an inquiry over allegations that it spied on its supervisory board and journalists. Several well-known supermarket discounters have admitted secretive staff monitoring via closed circuit cameras.
In addition, prosecutors are investigating evidence that hundreds of Germans hid tens of millions of euros in Liechtenstein, a tax haven. Klaus Zumwinkel, former chief executive of Deutsche Post, quit his job in February as a result.
“Business leaders must be an example to society” said Mr Köhler, whose role, while largely ceremonial, carries moral weight and influence in policy debates.
He complained about companies paying “salaries out of proportion to business performance”, but said a welcome “process of rethinking this issue” was entering company boardrooms.
He said such adjustments were needed to counter the popular view that social inequality was increasing and the gap between rich and poor widening. He said this view was “exaggerated” and not based on empirical evidence, but that cases of misconduct among the elite fuelled such thinking.
The Left party, Germany’s strongest opposition party, has this year gained support by highlighting an apparent rise in social inequality.
Mr Köhler also called for democratic renewal and electoral reform in Germany.
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Egypt joins French-led Med group
By Ben Hall in Paris
Published: July 7 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 7 2008 03:00
Egypt is to join France as co-president of a body to boost economic and security ties between Europe and the Mediterranean that will be launched in Paris on Sunday.
Cairo's role will add diplomatic weight to the French-inspired Union for the Mediterranean, which President Nicolas Sarkozy is to inaugurate with the support of nearly 40 government leaders. All 27 heads of EU governments are set to attend the opening, as are the leaders of most of the countries bordering the Mediterranean, including Algeria, which has been one of the most hesitant about the French-led scheme to reinvigorate existing ties, which dates from 1995. Libya plans to send an observer.
Henri Guaino, Mr Sarkozy's political adviser and architect of the Mediterranean initiative, said it had renewed the EU's interest in the region.
He brushed aside criticism of the way France had originally planned not to include all 27 EU countries in the scheme while using EU money, a proposal that triggered a crisis in relations between Paris and Berlin.
Germany was angered not only by the lack of prior consultation but because the original proposal appeared to undermine EU efforts to establish a common approach to neighbouring regions.
Mr Sarkozy later struck a deal with Angela Merkel, German chancellor, guaranteeing every EU member a right to be involved.
"There was a lively debate, a very intense, stormy discussion," Mr Guaino said. "And so what? Was this debate really pointless? Not as pointless as all that, because it led to a Franco-German agreement.
"It put the Mediterranean back at the heart of the European debate for the first time since 1995. It revealed an interest and enthusiasm for the south that was almost unthinkable. We in Europe suddenly took notice of the capital importance of the Mediterranean. So much so that everybody wanted to come on board."
Mr Guaino said that, by pushing forward with its idea, France had "produced a complete reform of a major EU policy in only one year".
In spite of the compromise with Germany, the revised initiative preserved the essential elements of France's original plan, he said. Decision-making would be shared among Europeans and Mediterranean partners, rather than imposed by Brussels.
"It is everything that is wrong with the current system," he said. "You undertake a project with the south and you say: 'It is me who is paying, so it is me who gives the orders'."
It was not the "goal" to have all 27 EU countries involved in every project, he added.
The initiative is expected to focus on practical projects, including solar power and civil nuclear energy, water supplies, civil protection and food security.
France never intended to take EU funds for the scheme without giving members a say, Mr Guaino added.
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German manufacturing sector suffers further drop
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt
Published: July 4 2008 18:28 | Last updated: July 4 2008 18:28
Germany’s economy appeared to be spluttering yesterday after Berlin reported the sixth consecutive monthly fall in industrial orders.
Europe’s largest economy has largely powered growth across the 15-country eurozone recently, boosted by the renaissance of its manufacturing sector. But the latest data showed Germany industrial orders fell unexpectedly by 0.9 per cent in May, extending a 1.7 per cent fall in April.
The Berlin economics ministry admitted orders had “cooled markedly” in the past six months albeit from a high level, in line with declining business confidence. Domestic orders fell sharply in May, offset by a small rise in foreign orders.
“If the manufacturing sector in Germany is showing signs of strain, and this is the strongest sector in the strongest major eurozone economy, it is clear that the rest of the eurozone is suffering far more significantly,” said Dominic Bryant at BNP Paribas.
The latest data were consistent with a significant slowdown in overall German growth in the second quarter, after a strong first three months of the year. Such a slowdown has already been factored in by policymakers, but the Bundesbank, or German central bank, has argued that economic momentum could rebound at the end of the year on the back of lower inflation and a more favourable international inflation environment.
The weakness of recent German industrial orders data has surprised economists. Other indicators – for instance, the Ifo business confidence index and purchasing managers’ indices – have pointed to still-robust economic growth. However, German manufacturers face a number of powerful headwinds including soaring oil prices, a strong euro, higher interest rates and a slowing US economy.
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Merrill may consider Bloomberg and BlackRock sales
Reuters
Reuters - 49 minutes ago
(Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co is moving closer to selling stakes in financial firm BlackRock Inc and information provider Bloomberg LP in an effort to raise cash to make up for $6 billion (3 billion pounds) in coming write-downs, the Wall Street Journal said Monday citing people familiar with the matter.
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Merrill is likely to seek about $5 billion for its 20 percent stake in Bloomberg, a price lower than it might fetch in the open market, the paper said.
Bloomberg's right of first refusal over the stake sale could make it difficult to attract rival buyers, according to the paper.
Merrill is also likely to sit down this week with top officials from BlackRock, believed to be worth $12 billion, in which it owns 49 percent, the paper said.
If Merrill proceeds with a sale, it is likely that it will sell only part of its interest and try to maintain a strategic alliance with the firm, the people told the paper.
Merrill cannot sell its BlackRock stake before 2009 without the agreement of BlackRock's board, a condition ironed out when Merrill bought the stake in 2006 for $9.8 billion, the paper said.
Merrill, BlackRock and Bloomberg could not be immediately reached for comment.
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Oil giant BP says it is suing Russian partners in TNK-BP
AFP
AFP - Sunday, July 6 10:18 pm
LONDON (AFP) - British oil giant BP is suing its Russian partners in TNK-BP, it confirmed Sunday, amid growing rifts in the joint venture.
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A company spokesman confirmed to AFP that the action against Russian shareholders AAR over an alleged debt worth around 370 million dollars (236 million euros) would be heard at the High Court in London.
He declined to comment further but in Moscow, AAR's chief executive Stan Polovets said in a statement: "We are very surprised that, instead of trying to resolve this matter through dialogue, BP has turned to the British courts with a claim that is grossly inflated."
Polovets also charged that BP was unwilling to treat AAR, which consists of Alfa Group, Access Industries and Renova, as an equal partner and accused it of mismanagement.
BP is battling AAR over control of the venture -- Russia's third-largest oil producer -- and relations between the two have hit serious problems in recent months.
Last week, Russian newspapers reported that foreign managers at BP could be forced to leave the country within days due to problems renewing their visas.
And in June, AAR said the election of a new board of nine directors -- four appointed by AAR and five by BP -- was "illegal".
The dispute is being closely watched as an indicator of how foreign investors will fare in President Dmitry Medvedev's Russia.
It is also playing out against a backdrop of cool relations between Britain and Russia over issues including the 2006 death by poisoning in London of ex-spy Alexander Litvinenko and Russia's refusal to extradite the man wanted by British authorities over the case.
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BP's rivals shift in Russian tussle
Reuters
By Michael Stott Reuters - Monday, July 7 01:24 am
MOSCOW (Reuters) - The fate of the second biggest foreign investment in Russia hangs in the balance amid signs of a shifting mood in the Kremlin which may have wrong-footed investors and one of the world's biggest oil companies.
(Advertisement)
Raided by security services, its board paralysed, key technical experts barred from working and deluged with court cases and labour inspections, TNK-BP is a struggling $38 billion (19 billion pound) oil company producing as much crude as Britain.
As investors scrutinise the saga to read the runes for future projects in Russia, signs are multiplying that the root of the dispute may not be in the Kremlin but rather the boardrooms of Russian billionaires. Even that is uncertain.
TNK-BP, a highly lucrative 50-50 joint venture between BP and four Russian-connected billionaires, began in 2003 amid much fanfare in a deal blessed by then-president Vladimir Putin. It produces a quarter of BP's global oil output and posted a net profit of $5.7 billion last year.
TNK-BP's first five years were a success story. Former BP managers working at the venture talk with pride of how they improved management of oilfields using the latest technology, cut back leaks, and boosted operating efficiency.
But its ownership structure, which gives management control to a foreign oil major, became an anachronism following a Kremlin-led drive from 2003 which took back under the state's wing control of all big Russian energy assets.
So when a campaign against TNK-BP suddenly started this year involving tax police, alleged labour code violations, security service sweeps and court cases, many assumed the Kremlin was pressuring the firm to accept a state partner.
A similar barrage of official harassment was unleashed in 2006 against Royal Dutch Shell to force it to sell a controlling stake in its giant Sakhalin gas venture to Russia's state-dominated energy champion Gazprom.
This looked like a replay, but there have been repeated statements from officials, including President Dmitry Medvedev, that the state does not want a stake.
"Something has changed in the past few months... The government has changed. Players have moved around. Power is more dispersed," said a source close to BP, speaking on condition of anonymity like most in this case because of its sensitivity.
Asked what the Kremlin wants out of the affair, one TNK-BP manager shrugged his shoulders: "Nobody knows."
CONTROL
Sources close to TNK-BP say there is strong evidence that German Khan, one of the billionaire co-owners and an executive director at TNK-BP, contributed to the official harassment as part of a campaign to weaken BP's control of the firm.
They point to three signals:
* an unauthorised letter from Khan in April to migration authorities asking for the number of permits for foreigners at the company to be cut dramatically. The note contradicted instructions from TNK-BP CEO Bob Dudley.
* when 140 BP specialist staff seconded from BP to TNK-BP tried to return to work after resolving visa problems, office security barred them from the building. Khan is responsible for TNK-BP security.
* a court case launched against TNK-BP over its use of BP secondees in a Siberian court. The suit was launched by Tetlis, a little-known brokerage, two of whose managers used to work in the 1990s at companies in Alfa Group, where Khan and fellow TNK co-owner Mikhail Fridman are partners.
"A lot of my colleagues believe this is about control," one senior BP source said. "They think the Russians want to grab TNK-BP to sell it later at a higher price with control."
Khan has declined to be interviewed but Fridman says the wave of official action against TNK-BP is normal law enforcement unconnected to the Russian shareholders, and that Khan has also been questioned by officials as part of their checks.
The aim of the Russian shareholders, he added, is simply to improve operating performance at TNK-BP and to remove what he calls a "parallel management structure" inside TNK-BP reporting to BP, which furthers BP interests at the expense of Russians.
"The performance of TNK-BP is just awful compared with its peers," Fridman said, citing the company's shrinking market capitalisation and its declining production.
Independent analysts disagree. "We believe TNK-BP Holding's results are strong, confirming its ranking as one of the most efficient oil companies in Russia," said local brokerage Renaissance Capital in a comment this week on 2007 results.
DID BP MISS THE MOOD?
BP, though, may have been wrong-footed by the shift in political mood in the Kremlin after Medvedev's inauguration in May, pledging to end the expansion of state control that characterised the era of his predecessor Vladimir Putin.
London-based top executives had discussed a possible asset swap with Gazprom involving the Russian partners exiting the venture -- but didn't spot the changing mood in Moscow or fully grasp the dangers faced by TNK-BP, industry sources said.
"It took them a long time to wake up in St James's Square to the problems on the ground," one source close to TNK-BP said, referring to BP's headquarters location. "I don't think they realised how serious the situation was."
Changes had also taken place at the top of BP. John Browne, the smooth international operator who built the company into its present size and masterminded the original TNK-BP deal, had left the company and been replaced by Hayward.
Fridman is very critical of what he terms BP's "arrogance", saying the problems at TNK-BP arose because the British firm was trying to cut a deal with Gazprom behind the Russian co-owners' backs because it thought Gazprom was a "sexier" partner.
"They misjudged if they thought that Gazprom would easily push us out of business," Fridman told Reuters in an interview. "I said many times to (BP CEO Tony) Hayward we are not selling and nobody will push us. It is not the intention of Putin or Medvedev, despite all these rumours."
Hayward has now recalled top trouble-shooter Lamar McKay from the United States to run a round of behind-the-scenes diplomacy ahead of a scheduled July 11 board meeting in Cyprus.
But BP faces a tough challenge to rescue the situation.
Illustrating this, Hayward in early June met the top Russian official controlling the oil industry, former Kremlin deputy chief of staff Igor Sechin, and complained about the Russian partners' tactics.
According to two senior executives with knowledge of the meeting, Sechin called in Khan and Fridman deputy Piotr Aven and gave them a public dressing-down in front of Hayward.
Satisfied, Hayward then flew to the St Petersburg Economic Forum, Russia's main annual event for foreign investors, and made some optimistic remarks about BP's future in Russia.
On leaving the Forum, he was presented with an ultimatum by Fridman demanding he agree to a sharp cut in the number of BP-related staff in TNK-BP and to an increase in representation for the Russian side on the company's boards.
And having previously asked Hayward to table a proposal for the Russian owners to convert their TNK-BP stakes into BP shares, Fridman then took the proposal and brandished it in front of the Russian press as proof of the British multinational's arrogance in dealing with Russian partners.
"What Fridman did to Tony really spoilt relations," one BP source said. "You can't get over that quickly." TNK-BP insiders, though, felt that Hayward had been too quick to take the Sechin meeting at face value.
BP chairman Peter Sutherland then publicly attacked the Russian partners, accusing them of corporate raider tactics and criticising the Kremlin for not stopping them.
But after Hayward pulled out of a big investment forum in Moscow earlier this month, criticism of him mounted locally.
"If you don't show up, you lose," said Igor Yurgens, First Vice-President at forum organiser Renaissance Capital. "When the time came for the showdown, BP were not ready for it. With all my frankness I can tell you, they should have been."
LIMITED OPTIONS
BP's options are now limited.
If the Kremlin sticks to its public pledges not to intervene and not to take a state share in TNK-BP, and the Russian partners refuse to back down, the British major faces potentially endless litigation and boardroom fighting -- unless it concedes to at least some of the Russian demands.
Fridman, whose personal fortune totals $20.5 billion, has a reputation as a shrewd, tough operator who gets what he wants.
BP, in the meantime, seems to be pinning its hopes on a campaign of international pressure to shame the Russian authorities into defending its interests.
"This is a struggle for the future of foreign investment in Russia," one senior manager at TNK-BP said. "The question is: Will Russia go the same way as Venezuela?"
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福田首相の本音ーー消費税アップ発言の本当の狙いは「たばこ税」アップで基礎年金国庫負担分徴収。１箱５００円が有力
執筆者: Yamaoka (1:11 am)
福田康夫首相が消費税アップをいい出したと思ったら、そこに１箱１０００円（現行３００円）のたばこ大増税論が出て来たのはご存じの通り（冒頭写真＝「毎日」７月５日）。
大手マスコミは、消費税アップに積極的な与謝野馨前官房長官等「財政再建派」ＶＳ景気回復＝税収アップで乗り切りたい中川秀直元幹事長等「上げ潮派」の勢力争いとの見方を取るが、「福田さんも自分の任期中に消費税導入をやれば、次期総選挙でさらに大負けするから先送りするつもり。それなのにあえて消費税を本格検討するとブチ上げたのは、最初から、来年４月から増える基礎年金の国庫負担２兆３０００億円をたばこ増税で補うつもりで、まず消費税アップといっておいて、たばこ増税をいいだせば、世論はそれを支持すると見てのこと」（永田町事情通）との見方がより本質であるようだ。
その証拠に、福田首相が消費税アップをブチ上げた直後、厚生労働省研究班（主任研究者・高橋裕子奈良女子大教授）はタバコ１箱１０００円にした場合、どれくらいの税収が見込めるかの試算を発表したが、その報告書（６月15日付）のなかに、「基礎年金の国庫負担率を引き上げに必要な２．３兆円の増税をまかなうことが可能となる」（横写真＝報告書の該当部分）とわざわざ記されているのだ。 ただし、たばこは１０００円ではなく、５００円に値上げする可能性がもっとも有力であるようだ。
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外貨準備高、１兆ドル台を回復
財務省が7日発表した6月末の外貨準備高は、前月に比べて45億7400万ドル増えて、1兆15億4900万ドルとなった。3カ月ぶりに前月比で増加に転じた。主な運用先である米国債の運用益に加え、ユーロ高でユーロ建て資産のドル換算額が増加したことなどから、2カ月ぶりに1兆ドルの大台に戻った。
財務省によると、2008年2月時点の外貨準備高の国別順位は1位が中国（香港を除く）の約1兆6504億ドルで、日本は2位だった。外貨準備高は 03―04年に実施した円売り・ドル買いの為替市場介入で急増。その後は介入していないものの、運用益が積み上がるなど増加傾向をたどり、2月に初めて1 兆ドルを超えていた。
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下水汚泥からリン回収 国交省、肥料原料
国土交通省は今年度から下水道の汚泥から肥料原料のリンを回収する事業を始める。リンは農作物の生産に必要な肥料だが輸入に頼る。主要生産国の中国がリン鉱石の輸出関税を引き上げたことで国際価格が高騰し、全国農業協同組合連合会（全農）が7月から化学肥料を大幅値上げした。廃棄物の汚泥からリンを取り出して提供しコスト増に悩む農家を支援する。
リンは下水道に流れ込むし尿などに含まれる。新技術は下水道の汚泥を焼却し、灰をアルカリ性溶液につけてリン酸を抽出。これに消石灰を加えてリン酸塩を取り出し肥料会社や農家に販売する。リン酸塩は肥料原料となるほか、そのまま肥料として使えるという。
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味の素冷食、家庭用冷食15品目を値上げ 11―35％
味の素冷凍食品は7日、総菜や冷凍野菜などの家庭用冷凍食品を8月21日から値上げすると発表した。対象は15品目で、価格改定や容量を減らす実質値上げを含め、上げ幅は11―35％。油脂や牛肉などの国際価格高騰に対応する。
代表商品では「Ｈｏｔ！１こんがりえびグラタン」（店頭想定価格は税抜き550円前後）が容量を15グラム減らしたうえで出荷価格を引き上げ、実質20％値上げする。「ミックスベジタブル」など冷凍野菜3品目は、出荷価格を約15％引き上げる。
同社は昨秋以降、主力のギョーザや鶏肉の空揚げなどの値上げを実施している。同社によると、油脂価格が昨年比で4割増え、野菜も同5割上がっているという。冷食大手の値上げで、同業他社が追随する可能性がありそうだ。
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クレハ、食品用包装資材を10％値上げ
クレハは7日、主に食品に使われる業務用包装資材を8月1日出荷分から10％値上げすると発表した。主にハムやソーセージに使う塩化ビニリデンフィルム「クレハロン」、調味料や香辛料に用いる「クレハブローエースボトル」など、包装資材の全製品が対象だ。原油由来の原料や燃料の調達コストが膨らんでいるのに対応する。
包装資材の値上げは、2007年7月に5―7％の幅で実施して以来、ほぼ1年ぶり。
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三井造、船舶エンジン２割増産 50億円で新工場
三井造船は舶用ディーゼルエンジンを増産する。50億円を投じて新工場棟を建設、年産能力を現状の2割増の600万馬力に高める。世界の海上輸送量の拡大で、鉱石や食糧などを運ぶばら積み船や、原油を運ぶタンカーなど船舶の需要は堅調。同社のエンジンも3年分の受注残を抱えている。三井造船は2011年ごろまでは需要が底堅いと見て、能力増強に踏み切る。
エンジンを生産する玉野事業所（岡山県玉野市）内に全長125メートル幅40メートル弱の工場棟を新設する。組み立てたエンジンを試運転するための設備を2基分整備、09年6月に稼働させる。新工場棟では、中型ばら積み船などに搭載するシリンダー径が50センチメートルの中型エンジンを集中生産する。
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サミット厳戒、経済に余波 交通規制で配送トラック増便など
主要国首脳会議（洞爺湖サミット）開催まであと2日。準備にともなって道内は交通規制など厳戒体制となり、道内企業の活動にも影響が出てきた。特に流通業や観光業などは物流業務の一部変更など、しわ寄せを最小限に食い止めようと対応に追われている。
コンビニエンスストア大手のセイコーマートは、サミット期間中の交通の混乱に対応するため、1日に稼働する物流トラック台数を5台増やし90台とする。すでに一部高速道路での渋滞で輸送に遅れが出ており、台数を増やして配送ルートを変更することで時間通りの到着をめざす。
季節要因で物流トラックを増減することはあるが、特定のイベントにあわせて台数を増やす例はほとんどないという。
スーパーでは、西胆振地区に3店舗を持つイオン北海道が、サミット期間中は北広島市の物流センターのトラック出発時間を早める。店によっては配送の遅れを見越して店頭在庫の積み増しも検討している。
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有明海、魚介類減少の原因究明へ 環境省、海底の泥を調査
環境省は魚介類が減少した有明海や八代海で、減少の原因とされる海底にたまった泥の調査に乗り出す。泥が積もる仕組みなどを突き止め、魚介類の再生につなげる考えだ。
有明海では1997年に潮受け堤防が閉めきられてから、貝柱がとれるタイラギなどの二枚貝が激減したといわれる。海底に有機物などを含んだ泥が積もったことが原因とされている。
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日本の要請で北方領土訪問を中止 豪旅行会社のクルーズ
北海道の釧路港から北方領土の国後、択捉両島を経由し、ロシア・カムチャツカ半島へ向かうクルーズを計画していたオーストラリアの旅行会社が、在シドニー日本総領事館からの航路変更の要請を受け、両島訪問を中止していたことが分かった。クルーズ船は6日、釧路港を出港した。
旅行会社はシドニーの「オーロラ・エクスペディションズ」で、同社はウェブ上で「領土に関する日ロ間の敏感な問題のため、旅程変更を決めた」と説明。船はサハリンを経由し、千島列島（クリール諸島）、カムチャツカ半島へ向かう。
外務省関係者は「北方領土の政治的な問題があるので約1カ月前に要請した」と認めている。
日本側の船舶代理店によると、参加者はオーストラリア人を中心に約100人で、日本人はいない。
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サムライ債、完売の？米シティが日本投資家向けに発行
米サブプライム住宅ローン問題で巨額損失を出し続けている米シティグループが日本の投資家向けに社債を発行したところ、わずか４営業日で完売し話題を呼んでいる。期間３年で利率２．６６％という条件について、「シティの経営状況を考えれば、もっと投資家に有利な条件を提示すべきでは」（金融筋）との声もある。それがあっという間に完売してしまうのは、なぜなのか－。
話題になっているのは、「シティグループ・インク 第２４回円貨社債」。日本円で購入できることから、「サムライ債」とも呼ばれている商品だ。購入は１００万円単位。募集期間は６月１３日から３０日までだったが、発売４営業日目の１８日には、発行総額１８６５億円分が完売となった。
販売窓口だった日興シティホールディングスは「ＡＡマイナスという高い格付けの社債であることや、円建てであるため為替リスクがないということもあり、ご好評のうちに完売となりました」（広報部）と説明している。
ちなみに、日本の金融機関の３年定期預金の金利は全国平均で０．４％台。もっとも高いものでも、日本振興銀行の夏のボーナスキャンペーンの金利１．５％とみられ、これらの金利と比べると、シティの社債の２．６６％は破格の高金利にみえる。
ただ、専門家の間には異論もある。シティが今年１月に一般公募した優先転換社債の利回りはドル建てで６．５％。今回の円建て社債の２．６６％を大きく上回る水準だったため、「今のシティの状況で２．６６％は低い。日本の投資家にも、もっと有利な条件を提示すべきでは」（金融筋）との不満も出ているのだ。
実際のところ、２．６６％という利回りをどうみればいいのか。
ある金融専門家に聞いてみると、「金融機関が他の金融機関から資金を調達する際に用いられる円金利スワップレートは現在、期間３年物で１．４％程度。シティの円建て社債の利率が３年で２．６６％ということは、シティの経営状況に対するリスクプレミアム（上乗せされた金利）が１．２％程度は乗っているということで、言われるほど悪いわけではないのでは」との答え。
シティが発行したドル建て優先転換社債の金利よりも大幅に低いことについては、「ドル建ての金利と円建ての金利は別物。比較するのには無理がある」との解説だった。
もちろんこの円建て社債は通常の債券と同様、満期前に売却する場合には市場金利の動向や発行体であるシティの経営状況に応じて販売価格が変動し、元本割れのリスクもある。
また、シティは完売翌日の６月１９日、ゲーリー・クリッテンデン最高財務責任者が「サブプライム問題による評価損を大幅に追加計上するため、４－６月期の業績が押し下げられる」と発言し、世界中の投資家にサブプライム問題の傷口の深さを印象づけた。
円建て社債はなかなかの投資商品のようだが、シティを取り巻く環境を考えると、購入者には釈然としない部分も出てきそうだ。
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埼玉の生食肉提供店、８３％が非生食肉を使用
レバ刺しやユッケなど肉の生食は根強い人気があるが、生食肉の料理を提供している埼玉県内の焼き肉店や居酒屋計１３７店舗のうち８３％にあたる１１４店舗が「生食用」の表示がない食肉を材料に使っていたことが同県の６月の調査で分かった。
肉の生食などが原因で発生するカンピロバクター食中毒は昨年、全国で４１６件（約２４００人）に上り、最も多い。少ない菌で発症するため、厚生労働省は食中毒への警戒を呼びかけている。
「生食用」の肉は鮮度を基準にしていると思われがちだが、厚労省の通知では（１）食肉処理場でほかの内臓と処理を分ける（２）作業員の手指を消毒する－など特別に管理した食肉を「生食用」と表示できる。
県は「生肉を提供する店は増えているが、鮮魚を扱う感覚で、当日、処理された新鮮な肉なら大丈夫と思ったようだ」とみている。
東京都健康安全研究センターの甲斐明美参事は「病原性大腸菌Ｏ－１５７や牛海綿状脳症（ＢＳＥ）が社会問題化したときと比べ、生肉を食べるのに抵抗感が薄れているのではないか。いくら新鮮でも『生食用』の表示がない肉は感染リスクがあるという認識を店側も持つべきだ」と警告する。
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無戸籍：認知調停で「前夫に連絡」も…戸惑う母たち
離婚後３００日規定による無戸籍児について「現夫の子」と戸籍に記載するため、母親らが各地の家庭裁判所に申し立てている認知調停。子が実父（母親の現夫）を相手に「自分の子」と認めてもらう手続きのため、前夫にかかわりなく進められるのがメリットとされていた。しかし実際には、家裁から「前夫に連絡を取らなければならないこともある」と説明されるケースが相次いでおり、母親らに戸惑いが広がっている。【工藤哲】
３００日規定に基づく「前夫の子」を「現夫の子」と戸籍に記載するには▽親子関係不存在確認▽嫡出否認の調停や裁判の手続きが一般的だが、いずれも前夫が手続きの直接の当事者となる。一方、認知調停は、前夫が直接の当事者にならないため、前夫から暴力を振るわれたりして連絡を取りたくない場合などに役立つとされる。
最高裁は先月、ホームページで「（前）夫が長期の海外出張、受刑、別居など、妻が（前）夫の子を妊娠する可能性がないことが客観的に明白である場合」との前提で、この手続きを紹介した。裁判所内部の研修でも認知調停の講義を取り入れるなど周知徹底に乗り出した。これを機に「無戸籍児家族の会」が無戸籍児の母親らに呼びかけ、今月から次々と家裁への申立が行われている。１１日までに全国で２５人が予定している。
しかし、１日に千葉家裁の支部に申し立てた千葉県内の女性（３８）によると、家裁の窓口の担当者から「前夫に連絡して確認させていただく可能性がある」と言われたという。昨年１２月に産んだ女児が無戸籍で、前夫は携帯電話にも応じない状態が続いている。女性は「もし、このまま連絡が取れなければ、調停はできないのでは」と心配する。
昨年３月に出産した女児を抱える埼玉県の女性（３６）は、３日にさいたま家裁の支部に申し立てたが、「裁判所から『親子関係不存在確認の方がいいかもしれない』と言われた。調停に期待していただけに不安」と話す。
こうした対応について、最高裁家庭局は「夫婦の別居状況や離婚の理由などは個々で異なる。調停では、それらの事情を元に判断することになる。必要があれば前夫から話を聞くこともある」と説明する。ただ、具体的な判断基準は示していない。
自身も認知調停で子供の無戸籍状態を解消した無戸籍児家族の会の井戸正枝事務局長は「私の場合は前夫とかかわらずに調停を成立させることができた。前夫とかかわれない、あるいはかかわりたくない事情がある母親らが認知調停に踏み切っている。裁判所は理解してほしい」と訴えている。
◇データの蓄積で条件見えてくる
離婚訴訟や家族法に詳しい榊原富士子弁護士の話 住民票など客観的資料で妊娠時に前夫と別居していたことを示せない場合、確認のため裁判所が前夫を呼ぶこともあり得る。申し立てが増え、前夫を巻き込まないケースに関するデータが蓄積されれば、呼ぶ、呼ばないの条件も見えてくるだろう。
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生活保護：ホームレス状態の男性、却下取り消し求め提訴
受給要件を満たしているのに生活保護申請を却下したのは違法だとして、ホームレス状態の横山正美さん（５７）が７日、東京都新宿区を相手取り、却下処分の取り消しを求め、東京地裁に提訴した。
訴状によると、横山さんは先月、生活保護とアパートに入るための一時金支給を２度にわたって区福祉事務所に申請したが、却下された。現在はＮＰＯの支援施設に入っている。区側は「重大な就労阻害要因はない」と却下理由を説明しているが、横山さんは「所持金が数百円程度で、健康で文化的な最低限度の生活が送れない。住所も連絡先もない状態が就労の道を閉ざしている」と訴えている。
弁護団は「ホームレス状態の人々は都内に数千人いると言われる。生活保護を拒む行政の姿勢を問いたい」としている。
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イネ：ジャポニカの起源は東南アジア…農業生物資源研解析
日本で広く栽培されているイネ「ジャポニカ」の起源は東南アジアの可能性が出てきた。農業生物資源研究所（茨城県つくば市）の研究チームが米粒の幅を決める遺伝子を発見し、アジアの約２００品種を遺伝子解析して突き止めた。従来は、約１万年前の稲作跡が見つかった中国の長江流域を起源とする説が有力で、今後論議を呼びそうだ。７日付の米科学誌ネイチャー・ジェネティクス（電子版）に発表した。
研究チームは、幅広のジャポニカと、細いインディカを比べ、米粒を細くする遺伝子「ｑＳＷ５」を発見。次に、アジア各地のコメで、ｑＳＷ５と「もみを穂から落とす遺伝子」「もちもち感を減らす遺伝子」の計３種類の特徴を調べた。
ジャポニカは、三つまたは二つの遺伝子が失われていたが、インドネシアとフィリピンの品種では、３種類の遺伝子が失われていなかった。また、タイ、ミャンマー、中国などへとほぼ北上するにつれ、遺伝子変異を起こした品種が目立った。
研究所の井沢毅主任研究員は「人類は好みのコメを得るために品種を選抜し、交配を繰り返してきた。栽培過程で遺伝子は変異していく。インドネシアなどで栽培されたイネが中国に伝わり、日本に来たのではないか」と話す。
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「タンス株」、３月末時点でなお130億株 業界団体調査
証券保管振替機構と日本証券業協会は7日、個人投資家が自宅や貸金庫で保管している「タンス株」が2008年3月末時点で約130億株に上るとの調査結果を発表した。07年9月末の前回調査に比べ10億株減少したものの、単純計算で約14兆円分の株券がなお個人投資家の手元に残っていることになる。
09年1月に上場企業の株券が一斉に電子化されると、タンス株は名義人の名前で「特別口座」に移る。他人名義で特別口座が設けられると、名義株主が勝手に売却してしまうリスクもあるため、証券業界は早期の対応を呼びかける。
上場企業の株式総数3802億株のうち、個人や金融機関が3月末までに振替機構に預け入れたのは3177億株。預託率は83.5％と昨年 9月末から1.3ポイント上昇した。今後企業や金融機関の対応が進むことを勘案すると、来年1月までに実質的な預託率は9割を超える見通しだ。
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気象衛星が消滅の危機、「ひまわり」後継機に予算集まらず
気象衛星ひまわり６号（気象庁提供）
気象庁が６～８年後に打ち上げを予定している気象衛星「ひまわり」後継機２基の調達の見通しが立たず、３０年以上も日本の空を宇宙から見守ってきた気象衛星が消えてしまうかもしれない事態に直面している。
現行２基の予算の７割を分担した国土交通省航空局が計画から外れることになったため、管理運用を含め１基４００億円とされる予算の確保が気象庁だけでは難しいためだ。
ひまわりを失えば、国内の天気予報の精度が落ちるだけでなく、観測網に空白が生じ、アジア・太平洋地域の台風や豪雨の監視に支障を来す恐れがある。
ひまわりは故障に備えて２基体制で、現行の６号と７号はともに２０１５年に寿命を迎える。衛星の製造は５年かかるため、８、９号の関連費用を来年度予算に盛り込む必要がある。
６、７号の時は、気象以外に航空管制機能を搭載することで旧運輸省航空局の予算を捻出(ねんしゅつ)した。だが、国交省は「次世代の管制通信方式が議論中」との理由で、後継機では航空管制機能の相乗りを見合わせた。同庁は民間との相乗りを模索したが、協力は得られなかった。
９９年に５号の後継機打ち上げが失敗した際、米国の衛星の軌道を変えて日本の観測を２年間代行させたが、米国からは「次に似た状況になっても１年限り」とくぎを刺されたという。
ひまわりは海面水温などの地球温暖化にかかわる情報も集めている。同庁は「観測が滞れば国際社会に迷惑がかかる。打開策を見つけたい」としている。
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