全日空、関空─グアム・中部─台北の２路線廃止を検討

全日空、関空─グアム・中部─台北の２路線廃止を検討

　全日本空輸が燃料高騰に伴う路線の見直しで、国内線に加えて、関西国際空港―グアム（１日１往復）、中部国際空港―台北（同）の２路線を廃止する方向で調整していることが１２日、明らかになった。

　いずれも観光客が中心で、搭乗率の変動が大きいなど運航効率が悪いことが要因だ。

　関空―グアム線が廃止になれば、全日空は関空発のリゾート路線から完全撤退することになる。

　国内線は、関空発着の札幌線など５～６路線を減便する方針だ。

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留学生を原発技術者に　東芝や三菱重など、東海大と育成事業

　東芝、三菱重工業、日立製作所など原子力発電関連企業は東海大学と共同で、アジアからの留学生を原発の技術者として育成する事業を始める。専門教育や企業でのインターンシップ（就業体験）を通じて人材を育て、各社が採用する。原油価格高騰などを受け、原発は世界で新設計画が相次いでおり、各社はグローバル展開の中核となる人材の確保を目指す。

　人材育成事業は今秋から始める。ベトナムやインドネシア、モンゴルなどで大卒者を募り、まず5人程度を日本に招く。留学生は約2年間、東海大大学院で原発の設計や安全管理などの専門講義を受け、企業の現場で就業体験する。

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Fate of dollar depends on swift solution

By Michael Mackenzie and Francesco Guerrera in New York

Published: July 13 2008 20:24 | Last updated: July 13 2008 20:24

Any sign that the US government does not back Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, pillars of the US mortgage market with debt widely held by foreign investors, could place the already weak dollar under further pressure.

The dollar slid last week as the euro rose to a three-month high of $1.5946 to sit less than a cent below its record peak of $1.6018, set in April. Analysts blamed some of the dollar’s fall on the drop in Fannie and Freddie’s share prices amid further distress in the US financial sector.

Non-US investors hold close to a record $1,000bn (€625bn, £505bn) of debt issued by US government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), according to data from the Federal Reserve.

Over the past decade, non-US investors, including central banks, have increasingly sought the higher yields offered on this so-called agency debt compared with Treasuries.

In the past year, China has bought $66bn in agencies and only $12bn of Treasuries, while Russia bought $34bn of agencies and sold $22bn of Treasuries, according to Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich.

They, like other investors, have long assumed that the debt issued by the GSEs is implicitly backed by the US government, valuing it closer to low-risk Treasuries than higher-risk corporate debt.

Investors will likely want to see a clear and uniform response from policymakers, and any sign of delay or vacillation could prompt further weakness in the dollar and the selling of agency debt.

“Some countries have made notable efforts to concentrate their buying in agencies,” said Mr Ruskin.

“The mix of large outstanding holdings and ongoing financing needs is one reason why a solution needs to be found fast, if the dollar is not to crack key levels, creating a wider problem.”

The idea that policymakers would prompt a run on the dollar and US debt markets as they try to shore up the GSEs is unthinkable, analysts warn.

Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of US fixed income strategy at Barclays Capital in New York, said: “I don’t see any circumstance where the senior agency debt would default. A default would call into question the full faith and credit of the US government.”

The next test for the agency debt market looms on Monday, when Freddie Mac sells $3bn of short-term debt.

A nagging worry for investors is that there is still no clear consensus about whether the GSEs can count on US government support.

Mr Ruskin said: “Even if confidence is restored by making the government backing of this paper more explicit, it is bound to lead to some re-evaluation of the scramble for agency yield in a low yielding, high risk and weak dollar universe.”

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Rescue plan for US mortgage giants

By James Politi and Krishna Guha in Washington and Francesco Guerrera in New York

Published: July 13 2008 19:14 | Last updated: July 14 2008 00:34

In a dramatic effort to quell the crisis surrounding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the US government on Sunday night announced that it will seek unlimited authority from Congress to lend money to the troubled mortgage groups and invest in their equity.

The Federal Reserve meanwhile said it would give Fannie and Freddie access to emergency funds on the same terms as banks, “should such lending prove necessary”.

The rescue plan, announced by Treasury secretary Hank Paulson, came after a weekend of crisis talks involving Mr Paulson, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, and New York Fed chief Tim Geithner.

It goes further than many market participants expected. In effect the government is seeking full discretion to inject both debt and equity into Fannie and Freddie, and take them over if necessary.

The Fed will act as a bridge by providing a backstop source of emergency finance in the interim while Congress passes the required legislation.

The extent of the move reflects Washington’s fears that failure to bolster Fannie and Freddie could deepen financial turmoil, undermining domestic and foreign investors’ fragile confidence in US capital markets and the dollar. “We need to stabilise the current situation,” a senior Treasury official said on Sunday night.

In a statement released on Sunday before the start of trading in Asia – where central banks are among the biggest holders of Fannie and Freddie debt – Mr Paulson said the two enterprises, which own or guarantee more than $5,300bn in US mortgages, “play a central role in our housing finance system and must continue to do so in their current form”.

Mr Paulson outlined a three-pronged strategy to resolve the crisis at Fannie and Freddie, whose shares have collapsed over concerns about their potential losses on mortgage holdings.

Under the plan, the Treasury will be authorised to increase its existing $2.25bn lines of credit to Fannie and Freddie. In addition, the Treasury will have temporary authority to purchase equity in either of the two entities if needed. Support will be at the discretion of the Treasury secretary. “Use of either the line of credit or the equity investment would carry terms and conditions necessary to protect the taxpayer,” Mr Paulson said.

The third part of the plan allows Fannie and Freddie to borrow from the Fed’s “discount window” through which it extends emergency finance in return for collateral. The Fed will also be granted a consultative role in shaping the future regulatory framework for Fannie and Freddie.

A senior Treasury official said Mr Paulson had spoken to all key figures in Congress and was confident that the authorising legislation would be inserted into the housing bill making its way through Congress and swiftly approved.

The market will get the chance to express its views on Paulson plan today when Freddie begins marketing $3bn in short-term debt. Wall Street bankers said Treasury officials had been in touch with big investment and commercial banks to ensure they were still considering placing bids for the bond sale.

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Breakthrough for Syria and Lebanon in Paris

By Tony Barber in Paris

Published: July 13 2008 15:11 | Last updated: July 13 2008 15:41

The European Union and its Mediterranean neighbours launched a new platform for their relationship on Sunday at a summit boosted by a promise from Lebanon and Syria to open embassies in each other’s capital.

Leaders of more than 40 countries attended the inaugural session of the Union for the Mediterranean, a project conceived by Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, as a way to bridge differences between the EU and the states of north Africa and the Middle East.

As the ceremonies got under way at the majestic Grand Palais in Paris, the spotlight fell on Ehud Olmert, Israel’s prime minister, and Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president, whose countries, bitter enemies since 1948, have held three rounds of indirect talks since March with Turkey as a mediator.

It was the first time that an Israeli and a Syrian leader had been seated in the same room, but the new union’s plenary session was carefully choreographed so that Mr Assad and Mr Olmert neither exchanged words nor shook hands.

Moreover, Mr Assad made it plain that he saw no prospect of direct peace talks with Israeli leaders at least until George W. Bush, the US president, left office next January.

For his part, Mr Olmert underlined that the US-supported negotiations Israel is conducting with Palestinian leaders were his immediate priority.

Iran vows action

A senior aide to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed at the weekend that Iran would hit at Israel and 32 US bases situated in the Middle East if it were attacked over its nuclear programme, writes Najmeh Bozorgmehr.

Mojtaba Zolnour said: “If America and Israel shoot any bullets and missiles against our country, Iranian armed forces will target the heart of Israel and 32 US bases in the region before the dust from this attack has settled.”

After meeting Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, on the sidelines of the Paris summit, Mr Olmert declared: “It seems to me that we have never been as close to the possibility of reaching an accord as we are today.”

In concrete terms, however, the most striking outcome of the weekend’s diplomatic activity appeared to be the announcement that Syria would open an embassy in Beirut and Lebanon an embassy in Damascus for the first time since Lebanese independence in 1943.

Such a step would imply Syrian acceptance of the sovereignty of Lebanon, a state where Damascus has always sought to exert influence and where Syrian troops were stationed for almost 30 years after 1976.

“We can say that Lebanon has moved from being a zone of turbulence, a war zone, to a more pacified zone where the Lebanese, and only the Lebanese, have the right to determine their own future,” Mr Assad said after talks on Saturday with Michel Suleiman, Lebanon’s president.

Since taking power in 2000, Mr Assad has on several occasions dangled the prospect of diplomatic recognition of Lebanon. If there is a difference this time, it may rest in Mr Sarkozy’s statement on Saturday that he intends to visit Syria in September – a gesture that the French leader could withdraw, if by then Mr Assad has not fulfilled his promise to open an embassy in Lebanon.

France froze relations with Syria after the 2005 assassination of Rafiq Hariri, the late Lebanese prime minister. Western governments suspected Syrian involvement in the killing, a charge Damascus denied.

Since a power-sharing deal in Lebanon was agreed in May, Mr Sarkozy has sought to build a better relationship with Mr Assad – an effort crowned by the Syrian leader’s attendance at Monday’s Bastille Day celebrations in Paris.

But the disagreements between Mr Assad and western leaders were underlined at the weekend when he asserted that he did not believe Iran, with which Syria has close relations, was seeking nuclear weapons.

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Mediterranean union is launched
France's President Nicolas Sarkozy (L) and Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert at the Grand Palais in Paris, 13 July 2008

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has launched a new international body with 43 member nations aimed at ending conflict in the Middle East.

The Union for the Mediterranean will tackle issues such as regional unrest, immigration to pollution.

At the summit's opening in Paris, Mr Sarkozy said its aim was to ensure the region's people could love each other instead of making war.

Israeli and Palestinian leaders earlier expressed optimism about peace talks.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel and the Palestinians have never been as close to a peace deal as they are now.

He was speaking after talks with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who said both sides were serious and wanted to achieve peace.

Transform the region

Mr Sarkozy urged Middle Eastern countries involved in long-running conflicts to end the deadly spiral of war and violence, as European nations had done by making peace which each other during the 20th Century.

He said the grouping "will build peace in the Mediterranean together, like yesterday we built peace in Europe".

Comprising 27 EU members with states from north Africa, the Balkans, Israel and the Arab world, the union's membership will include 756m people from Western Europe to the Jordanian desert.

Welcoming the presence of Arab states alongside Israel, Greece alongside Turkey and Morocco alongside Algeria, Mr Sarkozy said the group would not be "north against south, not Europe against the rest... but united".

He outlined the group's determination to focus on concrete projects focusing on the environment, immigration, security cooperation, transport and education.

The French president was clearly buoyed by the presence in Paris of so many Mediterranean rim leaders and said the union would be based on concrete projects, says BBC world affairs correspondent Nick Childs.

"Mr Sarkozy is one of those politicians who is full of surprises because he is always campaigning"

Mardell blog: Sea of Tranquillity?

Mideast optimism at French talks

Mark Mardell, BBC Europe Editor

But critics have dismissed the new union as lacking substance, and diplomats say there are continuing disagreements over key issues such as how to address the Middle East peace process and a possible role for the Arab League.

The only leader boycotting the Paris meeting was Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi, who has described the union as a new form of colonialism.

Mr Sarkozy played down the absence of Moroccan King Mohammed VI, saying he had sent his brother as a senior representative.

He also dismissed suggestions the Syrian president had snubbed Israel by walking out of a speech by Ehud Olmert.

Meanwhile, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas said both he and Mr Olmert were serious and wanted peace.

Israeli PM Ehud Olmert said his country had never been so close to reaching an agreement with the Palestinians as now.

He added that he would like direct talks with Syria, but warned they must not hinder talks with the Palestinians.

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Hot money poses risks to China’s stability

Michael Pettis and Logan Wright

Published: July 13 2008 18:56 | Last updated: July 13 2008 18:56

In 2006 China shocked the world by adding $247bn to what was already the largest hoard of foreign currency reserves. In 2007, if correctly counted, China took in more than twice that amount. So far this year it is on track to double yet again.

It is increasingly clear that this level of reserve accumulation is not sustainable. Besides the strains it places on the global balance of payments, the biggest problem it causes is within China itself. The People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, has to purchase these soaring reserves by issuing a combination of local currency and central bank bills. The ensuing monetary creation is fuelling rising inflation, systematic overinvestment and an overextended banking system.

But while vast and growing reserves have been an issue for China for several years, in the past few months something new and highly destabilising has been added to the process. The source of reserve accumulation has become much more volatile and perhaps intensely procyclical (exaggerating the swings of the economic cycle).

For many years China’s reserve accumulation was largely powered by its high and rising trade surplus and its status as the favourite destination for foreign direct investment. These are relatively stable sources of inflow and are even likely to be neutral or slightly countercyclical. But in recent months it has been no longer the trade surplus, in combination with FDI, that is powering the increase. The trade surplus is slightly down in 2008 compared with last year, as is the use of foreign-sourced funds for investment, even as the rate of Chinese reserve accumulation has doubled.

During the first halves of 2005 and 2006, the trade surplus, FDI and estimated interest on China’s reserves accounted for 80-90 per cent of the country’s reserve accumulation. In the first half of 2007, these components accounted for about 70 per cent. This year, however, their share has declined dramatically to 39 per cent from January to May (after we adjust China’s headline growth in reserves to account for a number of transactions that have in effect “outsourced” the job of reserve accumulation to other entities within China). Because there are likely to be speculative inflows buried in the trade and FDI accounts, their true share is probably even lower.

So what is powering China’s accelerating reserve accumulation? Probably hot money. As it becomes increasingly clear that China must revalue its currency sharply or else face surging inflation and the threat of financial instability, more and more investors, business people and ordinary households are bringing money into China to take advantage of profits associated with the expected appreciation or to protect themselves from the losses they will incur with the rising renminbi.

Consequently a flood of speculative money, amounting possibly to tens of billions of dollars every month, is pouring into China. There is no technical definition of hot money and of course, with much of it entering the country illegally, it is tough to measure, but it is possible to obtain rough proxies for speculative inflows and to track their change over time. In every case the proxy, however it has been derived, shows a startling increase over the past 12 months. The fact that in recent months the authorities have taken increasingly desperate measures to staunch the inflows confirms this interpretation of soaring hot money proxies.

If hot money is indeed increasing as quickly as the various proxies suggest, it indicates that not only is Chinese reserve accumulation going through a large quantitative change as it doubles yet again, it is going through an even more important qualitative change.

Hot money is notoriously unstable and even more notoriously procyclical. When the economy is growing, or even overheating, inflows are likely to increase net investment and add even more fuel to the economic engine. But when conditions change and the economy begins to slow or the country face financial risks, hot money is likely to flee the country, exacerbating the very conditions it is fleeing.

The Asian financial crisis steeled Chinese policymakers to create safeguards against capital flight, and China’s massive reserves and capital controls are likely to prevent a rapid speculative assault on the renminbi. However, just because China may be less vulnerable to an external financing crisis does not mean that authorities are out of the woods.

The increasing procyclicality of Chinese capital inflows could place the gradualist, consensus-driven Chinese leadership significantly behind the curve when the inflows reverse, when the government should be providing liquidity to the real economy rather than mopping it up. Under these conditions, the risks to the domestic banking system, rather than the currency, are likely to be more significant.

Michael Pettis is a professor of finance at Peking University. Logan Wright is an economic analyst at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Beijing

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EU to push on music copyright

By Nikki Tait and Sarah Laitner in Brussels and Ben Hall in Paris

Published: July 11 2008 20:21 | Last updated: July 11 2008 20:21

Brussels is expected to push ahead next week with reforms that would allow European singers and musicians to enjoy proceeds from their work for many more years.

Proposals to extend copyright protection for performing artists from 50 to 95 years were first outlined by internal market commissioner Charlie McCreevy in February and could be approved by the European Commission at Wednesday’s meeting.

If so, Europe would move into line with the US, and musicians – from ageing rock stars to session players – could enjoy a boost to their pensions.

The passage to date has not been entirely smooth. Two prominent commissioners – Italy’s Antonio Tajani and telecoms commissioner Viviane Reding – are thought to have opposed the move, on the grounds that it would mainly benefit top-selling artists and record companies. Additionally, it is claimed, there could be problems for cultural institutions that want to make archives available online.

Any legislation, meanwhile, will need the backing of a majority of member states and the European parliament, and could face further hurdles then. Britain, for example, has expressed reservations in the past.

But there are suggestions in Brussels that the go-ahead for copyright extension could be a trade-off for a separate, widely leaked decision by the Commission’s antitrust arm on the way “collecting societies” – whose job is to gather up and distribute music royalties – do business. Some officials say that the fact that both measures are likely to come up at the same meeting is “coincidence”. Others maintain that the two are connected.

Either way, under the draft antitrust decision, societies are likely to see their domestic monopolies over broadcast material broken down. Instead, they would be encouraged to compete – by offering better administration – for the right to handle an artist’s performing rights.

This decision stems from a complaint six years ago by broadcaster RTL, which argued that it should be able to get the rights to use a piece of music across Europe through a single collecting society.

But the prospect of it being finalised has prompted a rearguard action by some societies, and heavy lobbying of commissioners as well as Commission president José Manuel Barroso.

Societies themselves have kept a low public profile, but the European Composer & Songwriter Alliance – some of whose leading lights serve on societies’ boards – has been extremely vocal.

However, their claim that the decision could result in rights owners being obliged to license their repertoires for lower income is strenuously denied by EU competition commissioner Neelie Kroes. “There is no reason why the case should have any impact on the level of rights set at national level,” her spokesman says.

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Universal banking

Published: July 13 2008 19:45 | Last updated: July 13 2008 19:45

Call it the dark side of the universe. Citigroup’s retreat from Germany – selling its consumer unit there to France’s Crédit Mutuel for €4.9bn on Friday – is the latest phase in chief executive Vikram Pandit’s plan to shrink Citi’s balance sheet, dump unprofitable client relationships and preserve liquidity following huge credit-related losses.

Citi’s woes have caused much soul searching about the universal banking model, which runs the full gamut of retail and wholesale services across multiple regions. UBS, similarly tarnished, has been under pressure from various quarters to break itself up. By taking greater risks through their securities businesses, the argument goes, universal banks increase the likelihood of losses for their depositors, while complicating the task of central banks in their capacity as lenders of last resort. And their very size concentrates power and curbs competition.

CitigroupThere is some truth in all of that. But the universal model is not the real culprit. During the US banking crisis of the 1930s, for example, advocates of reform blamed losses on the reckless behaviour of securities affiliates of the commercial banks: hence the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 – repealed in 1999 – which enshrined the legal separation of commercial and investment banking.

Subsequent studies of the period, however, have shown that institutions without securities arms had a much greater tendency to fail than those that had them. The origins of the crisis were actually to be found in lax lending practices, sloppy internal controls and inadequate supervision of the banking industry in general. A similar picture is emerging from the current credit crunch where, so far, the casualties have been spread pretty evenly across brokers, mortgage houses, hedge funds and state-backed wholesale banks.

Like Sandy Weill and Chuck Prince before him, Mr Pandit is defiant in his defence of one-stop shopping. History is on his side. Big, global companies need big, global banks. The problem is in the management of the model, not the model itself.

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UK companies struggling to raise funds

By John Willman in London

Published: July 13 2008 20:16 | Last updated: July 13 2008 20:16

Companies are finding it harder to raise the funds they need as the impact of the credit crunch spreads into the corporate sector, a survey of finance directors at large UK companies has found.

More than three-quarters of the finance directors polled by Deloitte, most from FTSE 350 companies, said credit was hard to obtain, up from 63 per cent in March and 48 per cent in September.

Nine out of 10 said credit was costly, compared with 72 per cent in March and 59 per cent in September. Only 1 per cent thought credit was still cheap.

Two-thirds of the finance directors thought things would get worse before they got better – disagreeing with Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, who recently said the worst of the credit crunch was over.

“Credit conditions for corporates have deteriorated over the last three months at the fastest pace since the survey began in September,” Margaret Ewing, Deloitte vice-chairman, said.

Ms Ewing added that tighter credit conditions had triggered a big shift in the attitude of companies to debt. Enthusiasm for raising borrowing or gearing had fallen sharply since the autumn when it was seen as more attractive than either corporate debt or issuing shares. The waning enthusiasm for bank borrowing among finance directors is a result of the repricing of debt in recent months, as banks reduce maximum credit lines for companies and toughen covenant and collateral requirements.

The Bank of England’s latest credit conditions survey showed lenders had tightened corporate credit availability in the second quarter and expected a further reduction over the next three months.

The Deloitte survey found finance directors gloomy about corporate earnings, with most saying they will grow at less than the 5 per cent expected by City analysts.

Only 6 per cent said earnings would grow faster.

One reason for the pessimism was the impact of rising prices for energy and raw materials. On balance, the finance directors expected margins to be squeezed by inflationary pressures, with 45 per cent saying they were likely or very likely to fall.

More than half said they were likely to pass on higher input costs by raising prices, though 35 per cent said they were unlikely to.

“The big question is whether demand will be sufficiently resilient to accept such price rises,” Ian Stewart, Deloitte’s research director, said.

In spite of the gloom, however, more of the finance directors expected the FTSE 100 to be higher in 12 months than lower.

Half believed UK equities were undervalued, compared with 22 per cent who saw them as overvalued.

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Row over freight charges on fast rail line

By Robert Wright, Transport Correspondent

Published: July 14 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 14 2008 03:00

The start of a new rail freight service bringing more efficient mainland European wagons into the UK is being held up by unreasonable fee demands from the owner of the track, according to Britain's largest rail freight operator.

EWS, owned by Germany's Deutsche Bahn railway group, believes there is demand for Continental-sized freight wagons to run through the Channel tunnel and then along High Speed 1, the fast line to London.

Such wagons are barred from almost all the UK's railways because bridges and tunnels are too low.

But High Speed 1, whose last section opened in November, was built to accommodate Continental-sized freight trains. Nevertheless, no European or UK-style freight train has used it since the first section was opened five years ago. The line is owned by London & Continental Railways.

Graham Smith, EWS's planning director, said larger wagons would offer customers considerable efficiency advantages. They could carry pallet-loads of goods stacked three-high, rather than two-high on normal, British-sized wagons.

"It would be good for manufactured goods, vehicle components and fresh produce and would enhance the rail freight offering through the Channel tunnel."

Spain's Transfesa, also part of the DB Group, was interested in using the new service to take goods to Ford Motor Company's Dagenham plant on the edge of London, Mr Smith said. However, EWS fears the likely charges to use High Speed 1 could make the service uneconomic, and has appealed to the Office of Rail Regulation to force LCR to change how it calculates the fee.

Most UK goods trains are charged only for wear and tear on the track, energy consumption and other marginal costs of running the train. Mr Smith said LCR wanted to charge freight trains a marginal cost almost twice that on the normal network, an extra mark-up to produce a profit and a charge to cover some of the track's building costs. LCR declined to comment.

The ORR can handle appeals against decisions by LCR over issues such as pricing, but does not regulate it as tightly as Network Rail, owner of the rest of the mainline rail network.

The office has ruled that mark-ups can be charged only on traffic that can bear the extra cost, defined as coal going to power stations and trains carrying nuclear waste. The ORR has received an appeal from EWS.

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Tokyo throws its weight behind 'linkers'

By Lindsay Whipp in Tokyo

Published: July 14 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 14 2008 03:00

Japanese policymakers are pushing domestic financial institutions to invest in inflation-linked bonds in a bid to create a more stable market.

“The portion for linkers is still very limited, so our intention is to increase the portion against the total debt outstanding,” a ministry of finance official told the Financial Times. “The priority is getting a stable market before increasing supply.” A higher ratio of inflation-linked bonds as a total of debt would enable the government to further diversify its debt portfolio and bring the proportion of linkers closer in line with more established markets such as the US and UK.

Japan's market is still in its infancy. The country issued its first inflation-linked bond in 2004 and annual issuance now stands at Y3,000bn ($28bn).

That represents 1.3 per cent of Japan's total debt issuance, compared with the US, where such bonds account for 10.4 per cent and the UK where it represents 27.7 per cent.

Inflation-linked bonds have been popular in the US and UK for years. Soaring food and energy prices have encouraged investors to focus more on the risks of inflation across the globe.

But 10 years of deflation in Japan has left the country's investors unaccustomed to such risks. In spite of the fact that Japan's core consumer price index now stands at 1.5 per cent, many local investors remain reluctant to buy the debt.

This leaves liquidity extremely thin. Estimates are at about Y15bn a day, making it difficult for domestic institutions to make large transactions without moving the market.

The lack of liquidity has made it difficult for some investors to complete "sell" transactions, leading the government to raise the amount of buy-backs that it conducts of linkers from Y80bn to Y320bn in the fiscal first half.

A thin market has also played its role in the volatile break-even inflation rate – the spread between the yields of nominal and linker bonds – which average about 40 basis points compared with the 1.5 per cent CPI.

There are a number of factors that could provide upward pressure on the CPI.

Freddy Lim, a Morgan Stanley strategist, said there was a possibility that the government could lift wheat prices, which would have a knock-on effect on processed food, such as bread.

Others think that the Japanese government will raise consumption tax and there has been talk of an increase in tobacco taxes.

“The CPI is rising and even if this is because of energy and food prices, it’s very unlikely that we’ll have deflation after next year, given that the economy has been restructured,” said Stefan Liiceanu, a senior fixed income strategist at Barclays Capital.

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RusAl lobbies West in Norilsk board row

By David Litterick
Last Updated: 12:47am BST 14/07/2008

Russian aluminium giant RusAl has written to Western institutions urging them to back its attempts to call an extraordinary general meeting at mining group Norilsk Nickel after a boardroom coup that saw the company's chief executive dismissed.

RusAl, controlled by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, owns 25pc of Norilsk. Rival Vladimir Potanin owns a further 29pc and the two have been fighting for control since the beginning of this year.

At the annual meeting last month, Mr Potanin succeeded in installing many of his associates from his holding company Interros on to the board. He took the chair and sacked the chief executive Denis Morozov, appointing his ally, Sergey Batekhin, as chief executive.
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Now RusAl chief executive Alexander Bulygin has written to minority shareholders including JP Morgan, Fidelity, BlackRock and AllianceBernstein calling for them to support plans for an EGM that would boost the number of directors, and asking them to suggest independent nominees for Norilsk's board.

"We believe the new board, dominated by Interros and a new Interros-employed chief executive, is not going to function adequately and certainly not in the interests of all Norilsk shareholders," Mr Bulygin said.

He said that the Norilsk board only contained one truly independent director, with a number of supposed "independents" nominated by Interros holding close business ties to Mr Potanin.

The battle for control of Norilsk has implications for the whole of the Russian mining industry. RusAl has made no secret of its desire to take control of Norilsk, while Mr Potanin wants to create a mining giant to rival BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

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「髪長い」と市課長補佐、元部下をライターで焼く

　石川県珠洲市市民課の課長補佐（５４）が男性職員（２２）の髪にライターで火を付けていたことが１４日、分かった。課長補佐は以前から「髪が長い」と注意していたという。市は課長補佐を停職１カ月の懲戒処分とし、職員は県警珠洲署に被害届を出した。

　同市によると、課長補佐は７日午前９時半ごろ、市民課で調べものをしていた総務課の男性職員に近づき、職員の髪を束ね、ライターで火を付けた。職員の髪は少し焼けたが、やけどなどはしていない。

　２人は以前同じ部署に所属。課長補佐は当時から男性職員に髪が長いことを注意していたという。課長補佐は火を付けたことを認め、職員の家族に謝罪した。職員の髪の長さは「肩に付かない程度」だったという。

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大分教員採用汚職：県教委ＯＢの私大教授も口利き

　大分県の小学校教員採用汚職事件で、県教委ＯＢで県内の私立大学教授（６５）が、元小学校長、浅利幾美被告（５２）＝贈賄罪で起訴、懲戒免職＝の長男、長女の試験前の昨年７月ごろ、県教委義務教育課参事の江藤勝由容疑者（５２）＝収賄容疑で再逮捕＝に「受験するのでよろしく頼む」と伝えていたことが分かった。教授はその後、自分の病気への見舞名目で浅利被告から現金１０万円を受け取っていた。現金は紙袋に入れた魚の干物の下にあったという。

　この教授は毎日新聞の取材に「教え子の娘で、頑張っていたので『よろしく』と伝えてしまった。今でもお見舞いと思っているが、口利きの謝礼と言われれば、そう受け取られても仕方がない」と話している。

　江藤容疑者が勤務する義務教育課人事班には、県議など複数からの口利きが判明しているが、大学関係者の口利きが明らかになったのは初めて。

　教授によると、浅利被告は中学時代の教え子で、江藤容疑者は教育事務所長時代の部下。現在は大分県内の別の大学でも非常勤講師を務め、在学中だった浅利被告の長女に昨年、採用試験で課せられている「模擬授業」を指導した。

　浅利被告から「長男と長女が教員を目指している。長男は今回が３回目」という話を聞き、試験前の昨年７月ごろ、県教委を訪れた際、江藤容疑者に２人の名前を告げて「よろしく頼む」と伝えたという。

　その後、同年８月上旬に浅利被告と長女が自宅を訪ねて来て、自身の病気の見舞いとして手提げの紙袋に入った魚の干物を渡された。後で確認したところ、干物の下に現金１０万円入りの封筒があったという。教授は驚いて浅利被告に電話をしたが「お見舞いですので受け取って下さい」と言われ、受け取ったという。

　長男、長女の合格発表は同年１０月にあり、教授は発表の１～２日前に江藤容疑者から合格を知らされたという。

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疑惑の大分県教委、てんてこ舞い　試験準備・全国会議…（1/2ページ）

2008年7月14日12時56分

　幹部や小学校長、教頭らが贈収賄容疑で逮捕され、疑惑の渦中にある大分県教委が、事件への対応に加え、間近に迫る０９年度の教員採用試験の準備に大わらわだ。１７、１８両日には、全国の都道府県教育長らが集まる会議まである。職員らは休日返上で作業に追われた。（黒川真里会）

■採用試験の実務、県人事委に「丸投げ」

　事件を受け、大分県教委は教員採用試験を県人事委と共同で行うことにした。１９日から始まる１次試験の出願者は１８０５人。「ミスは許されない」と、双方の職員計１４人が日曜日の１３日午後、大分市の県総合庁舎６階会議室に集まって打ち合わせをした。

　今回の事件では、県教委義務教育課参事、江藤勝由容疑者（５２）＝収賄容疑で再逮捕＝が上司の指示を受け、受験者の得点を操作していた実態が明るみに出た。これまでは問題の作成から合否判定まで、すべての事務作業を県教委が行っていたことが不正を許したとして、県教委は採用試験の実務を人事委にほぼ「丸投げ」する。新方式では採点や集計、成績一覧表作成などの作業は人事委が行うことになった。

　打ち合わせでは、成績一覧表を双方で保管して改ざんを防ぐことを確認したほか、改ざん防止のため導入した指紋認証システムつきのパソコンも披露された。採用試験を主管する県教委の南雅量・高校教育課長は「急な見直しで準備は自転車操業だが、何重にもセキュリティーをかけ、不正が起こる確率はゼロに近くなった」と話している。

■追い込みの出願者「事件に無力感」

　教員採用試験の出願者たちも、最後の追い込みに入っている。大分市では１３日、教員志望者向けの予備校の模擬試験に多くの人が挑んだ。

　その一人、大分市内の高校臨時講師の女性は、過去６回、２次試験まで進んだが合格できずにいるという。「試験直前の事件発覚で、無力感から試験勉強が手につかなかった」とやりきれない心境を打ち明けた。しかし「今年こそ合格して、教育現場を変えていく一員になりたい」。何とか気持ちを切り替えて頑張りたいと話していた。

■総会に２００人「準備で眠れない」

　事件による混乱が収まらない中、大分県日出町のホテルで１７、１８の両日、全国都道府県教育委員会連合会の総会が開かれる。全国の教育長や教育委員長ら約２００人が一堂に会する予定だ。

　年に２回の総会はほとんど東京で開かれてきたが、大分県で今秋、国民体育大会が開かれることから、県教委は国体のＰＲも兼ねて総会の開催県に名乗り出ていた。

　ところが、６月１４日、江藤容疑者と小学校長、教頭ら４人が逮捕され、混乱が始まった。開催日が約１カ月後に迫っていたため、開催地の返上もかなわなかったという。

　さらに、県教委ナンバー２の教育審議監だった二宮政人容疑者（６１）が収賄容疑で４日深夜に逮捕された後は、苦情や抗議が殺到。「３０秒に１回は電話が鳴る」（県教委職員）ほどで、一時は準備もままならない状況に陥った。担当者の一人は「準備不足が露呈したらどうしようと考えると、ますます眠れない」とぼやく。

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布川事件：名張事件再審では開始決定取り消し　門野裁判長

　布川事件の再審開始決定を支持した東京高裁の門野博裁判長（６３）は７０年に任官し、函館地家裁所長や札幌地裁所長などを歴任した。名古屋高裁部総括判事だった０６年１２月には、三重県で女性５人が殺害された「名張毒ぶどう酒事件」の再審事件で、検察側の異議申し立てを認め、再審開始決定を取り消している。ロス銃撃事件の控訴審で、殺人罪などに問われた三浦和義元社長（６０）に逆転無罪を言い渡した東京高裁判決（９８年７月）では右陪席裁判官を務めた。

----------------------------
布川事件：「自白偏重」に警鐘　東京高裁判断

　布川事件の再審開始決定を支持した東京高裁の判断は、再審の「冬の時代」とも言える近年の厳しい司法判断の流れに雪解けをもたらした。今回の決定に対し、検察側は特別抗告できるが、再審事件で最高裁に認められたケースは過去になく、決定は極めて重要な意味を持つ。

　「疑わしきは被告の利益に」という刑事裁判の鉄則を再審事件にも適用すべきとした最高裁の「白鳥決定」（７５年）以降、８０年代までに日本弁護士連合会が支援した再審事件の無罪確定は１０件に上り、一時は再審の扉が広く開かれた。

　しかし、９０年代以降、再審で無罪になったのは「榎井（えない）村事件」（高松高裁、９４年）の１件のみ。その後、「日産サニー事件」（仙台高裁で９５年取消）、「大崎事件」（福岡高裁宮崎支部で０４年取消）、「名張毒ぶどう酒事件」（名古屋高裁で０６年取消）と一度は再審開始決定が出たにもかかわらず、検察の即時抗告や異議申し立てで覆るケースが相次いだ。

　多くのえん罪事件と同様に、布川事件も物的証拠がなく、自白偏重の捜査が行われた。取り調べの全面録音・録画（可視化）の議論も高まる中、警察や検察は不当に自白を強要することのない適正な捜査を肝に銘じなければならない。

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Passport scandal hits Argentina
By Daniel Schweimler
BBC News, Buenos Aires

Forged passport (file photo)

The authorities in Argentina say they have uncovered a multi-million dollar operation in forged Italian passports.

Many of those being investigated are professional footballers.

It is thought they use the false passports to overcome the limit on the number of non-European Union foreigners playing in the Italian league.

The scandal came to light when the Italian consul in Buenos Aires did not recognise the signatures on Italian passports issued there.

A judge, Norberto Oyarbide, launched an investigation which resulted in hundreds of police raids across Argentina.

It's not only footballers who are benefiting from the scandal, officials say - but in football-mad Argentina, which has hundreds of players playing abroad, they are the ones attracting the attention.

There is a limit on the number of non-European Union nationals who can play for each club - but claiming Italian nationality is one way around that rule.

Many Argentines, and therefore Argentine footballers, have Italian ancestry.

However, they can get an illegal passport in a few days for $30,000 (£15,000) - while the official one could take several months, or even years.

The spotlight is also shining on the small southern Italian village of Fagnano Castello, since several of the false documents named it as the birthplace of the great-grandparents of a number of the Argentine footballers being investigated.

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Iran, Russia's Gazprom sign energy cooperation deal
AFP
By Stuart Williams AFP - Sunday, July 13 06:53 pm

TEHRAN (AFP) - Iran and Gazprom Sunday signed an agreement for the Russian energy giant to help Tehran develop its oil and gas fields, days after Total dropped out of a multi-billion-dollar gas deal.
(Advertisement)

"The Iranian National Oil Company and Gazprom signed an agreement in which the two sides will cooperate in the development of Iran's oil and gas fields," the oil ministry's Shana news agency said.

No financial details were given but the agreement signals Iran's determination to secure Russian help for exploiting its energy resources as Western countries pull out due to political pressure.

The head of French energy giant Total last week said it was dropping out of a multi-billion-dollar gas investment to develop phase 11 of the South Pars gas field, saying it was currently too risky politically to invest in Iran.

Western governments have pressured firms to cut their ties with Iran over the country's controversial nuclear programme, which world powers fear could be aimed at seeking atomic weapons -- a charge vehemently denied by Tehran.

The United States, Iran's arch enemy, has also been urging global energy giants to cut their ties with Tehran, saying that doing business sends the wrong message at a time of growing tensions in the nuclear crisis.

"Gazprom will be a cooperative partner for the Islamic Republic of Iran," Iranian state television quoted Alexei Miller, CEO of the Russian state-controlled firm, as telling President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a meeting.

Other issues covered in the cooperation agreement include possible participation of Gazprom in the planned peace pipeline that would deliver Iranian gas to India and Pakistan, Shana said.

Improving recovery rates in Iran's ageing oil fields and Russian help in transferring Caspian Sea crude oil to the Gulf of Oman are also mentioned.

Cooperation in the development of Iran's North Azadegan oil field, part of the vast Azadegan filed in southwestern Iran, was also mooted in the agreement, Shana said.

It said that working groups would be formed to implement the cooperation and a joint company would be set up between the two countries for cooperation in oil and gas.

State television said Miller expressed willingness for Gazprom to participate "in big oil and gas projects; in South and North Pars, Azadegan and the Caspian Sea fields."

Ahmadinejad, for his part, said that Iran was "interested in expanding ties with Russia in oil and gas as far as possible," state television said.

The South Pars field in the Gulf has around 500 trillion cubic feet (14 trillion cubic metres) of gas, which represents about eight percent of world reserves.

But the lack of foreign investment has so far delayed the development of the giant offshore field and dented Iran's hopes of becoming a major gas exporter.

Azadegan is Iran's biggest onshore oil field with an estimated 42 billion barrels of crude oil in place and production started in February using only Iranian firms after the Japanese partner Inpex quit the project.

Iran sits on the world's second largest proven oil reserves worldwide and is the number four crude producer worldwide and the second in the oil cartel OPEC.

It also has the second biggest proven global gas reserves after Russia but so far has played only a minor role on the gas export market.

Russia, while approving three sets of UN sanctions against Tehran, has repeatedly argued the nuclear standoff should be solved through diplomacy and still has significant economic interests in Iran.

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Gazprom agrees with Iran's NIOC to set up oil, gas JV


MOSCOW, TEHRAN, Jul 14 (Prime-Tass) -- Russia's natural gas monopoly Gazprom has agreed with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to set up a joint venture for oil and gas projects in Iran, Russia and other countries, Gazprom said in a statement on July 13, following Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller's visit to Iran.

Miller had talks with Iran's Petroleum Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari and NIOC Managing Director Seifollah Jashnsaz.

They also discussed possible swap operations. Iran has raised the issue of possible gas imports from Russia to the northern parts of Iran on a long-term basis, Gazprom said.

Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding with NIOC after the talks.

Iran has offered Gazprom to take part in developing Iranian oil and gas fields, to build an oil refinery and to cooperate in transportation of oil via the Caspian Sea to the Gulf of Oman, Nozari told reporters July 13, ITAR-TASS said.

At present, Gazprom is developing the second and third phases of Iran's Southern Pars gas condensate field jointly with France's Total and Malaysia's Petronas.

Iran ranks second in the world in terms of proven gas reserves, which are estimated at 28.13 trillion cubic meters. In 2006, Iran produced 105 billion cubic meters of gas, exported 5.7 billion cubic meters to Turkey and imported 5.8 billion cubic meters from Turkmenistan. Domestic gas consumption in Iran amounted to 105.1 billion cubic meters in 2006. It grows at high rates of about 7% annually.

NIOC explores and develops oil and gas fields in Iran and abroad and holds exclusive rights for Iran's oil and gas resources.

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「毎日jp」が自社広告だらけに、ネット上に深いつめ跡残る

　毎日新聞社のニュースサイト「毎日.jp」で、先週末以降、広告スペースの大半が自社広告で埋め尽くされる事態が続いている（図1）。

　毎日新聞社は英文サイト「毎日デイリーニューズ」（Mainichi Daily News）上のコーナー「WaiWai」で、「日本の女子高生はファーストフードで性的狂乱状態」など低俗な記事を長年にわたって配信し、ネット上で批判の声が上がっていた。同社は6月23日、同コーナーを中止・削除し、監督責任者や担当者らを処分すると発表したが、25日の株主総会で、それまでの常務デジタルメディア担当が社長に、同デジタルメディア局長も取締役に昇格する人事を可決・承認（27日に役員報酬の一部返上を発表）。これがネット上の炎上に油を注ぐ格好となり、毎日新聞社のほか、毎日新聞および毎日jpに広告を載せている大口の広告主へも抗議、問い合わせが電話やメールで寄せられることとなった。

　毎日jpは、ヤフーのアド・ネットワークに加入して広告を配信している。アド・ネットワークとは、複数のメディアサイトをネットワークして広告受注を請け負い、広告を配信するサービスのこと。多数のアクセスを集めるメディアサイトをネットワーク化することで広告媒体としての価値を高めることができ、広告主にとっても、一つのアド・ネットワークに広告を発注するだけで多数のメディアサイトに広告を配信できるため、手続きがラクになるメリットがある。ヤフーのアド・ネットワークには、毎日.jpのほか、「YOMIURI ONLINE」（読売新聞社）、「ORICON STYLE」（オリコンDD）など、ニュース系、エンタテインメント系を中心に約50社のメディアが加入している。

　ヤフー広報は「個別のパートナー企業の広告配信状況について公にはコメントできない」と回答を避けたが、広告主企業がネットユーザーから抗議を受けていることをヤフーやメディアレップに伝えたことで、毎日jpへの広告配信を一時的に停止する判断を下したもようだ。

　影響はアド・ネットワーク経由の広告だけにとどまらない。これからピークを迎えるお中元商戦に向けて企画していた「お中元特集」ページは、出店企業が次々と撤収したことで、商戦本番前の7月4日に閉鎖に追い込まれた（図2）。

　また、ポータルサイト「goo」の子供向けポータル「キッズgoo」では「全国版の新聞」のディレクトリから、毎日jpが一時的に削除された。gooを運営するNTTレゾナントの広報は、「キッズgooは子供向けのページのため、（不適切な記事の配信元にリンクを張ることは）相応しくないと判断した」と説明する（図3）。

　こうした“騒ぎ”になった経緯や追加処分の可能性について毎日新聞社に尋ねたところ、「7月中旬に調査結果を公表する予定」（広報）との回答だった。

　だがネット上で既に流れた悪評のつめ跡は大きい。ヤフーで「毎日新聞」と検索すると、「毎日新聞」とともに頻繁に入力された同時検索語が表示される。そこには、「侮辱記事」「低俗」「悪行」など、ネガティブなキーワードが並ぶ（図4）。グーグルの同時検索語は反映されるまでやや時間がかかるため、ほとぼりが冷めるころになって同様のキーワードが並ぶ可能性がある。

　大半のユーザーが検索エンジン経由でWebサイトに訪れる中、ユーザーと企業ブランドの最初の接点となる検索結果ページに悪評が残ることは、ブランド力を低下させかねない。不祥事対応を誤ると、その傷は長くネット上に残る。ネットの影響力の大きさを改めて実感させる結果となった。

（小林 直樹＝日経ネットマーケティング）　[2008/07/08]

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Why we need not fear Iran
14.07.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/105771-iran-0

By Babu G. Ranganathan

We need to keep our calm with Iran. Our government has an impulsive tendency to squash mosquitoes with TNT. Ahamadinejad is more of a figurehead in Iran than anything else. The real power belongs in the hands of Iran's religious leaders and many of them, as well as Iran's population, are sympathetic to the U.S. and the West. We have an U.S. administration that doesn't understand geo-social complexities.

Others have argued well that Iran is not going to attack Israel with a nuclear weapon. This would not only hurt Israelis but the fallout would hurt Palestinians and surrounding Arab populations as well, not to mention retaliation towards Iran and total devastation of its economy which Iran deeply cares about.

It is not even necessary to make a first strike against Iran for the survival of the West or even Israel. If Iran strikes first there would be no world condemnation for Israel or the West to retaliate. But if we, out of foolish "cowboy" mentality, attack first there will be a huge price to pay.

Iran 's show of might is more for gaining pride in the Muslim world than anything else. Ahamadinejad is playing a psychological game with his words. Remember he is a figurehead!

If it had not been for Pakistan neither Iran nor North Korea would have had nuclear technology. We have been way too soft on Pakistan, the real culprit in the region.

The author, Babu G. Ranganathan, has his B.A. degree with concentrations in theology and biology, and has been recognized for his writings on religion and science in the 24th edition of Marquis Who's Who In The East. The author's website may be accessed at www.religionscience.com .

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Russia cuts oil shipments to Czech Republic against the background of its radar agreement with USA
14.07.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/europe/105772-czech_usa_radar-0

Russia cut the amount of exported crude to the Czech Republic twice last week, which made the country use its owns state crude reserves. Russia started the reduction of shipments immediately after the Czech authorities signed an agreement to deploy a US radar station in the country. Czech media assumed that the reduction of fuel shipments became Russia’s response to the decision.

Czech Industry and Trade Minister Martin Riman stated Friday night that it would be too childish of Russia to show such a reaction to the US-Czech radar agreement. Additionally, the part of the Czech population, which does not support the radar station in their country, will most likely be very unhappy about the reduction of oil shipments, the minister added.

Russia has not released any official statement in connection with the US-Czech agreement yet. Russian and Czech officials will meet to discuss the current state of affairs on July 14.

Spokespeople for Unipetrol, the largest oil-processing company of the Czech Republic, told Interfax that the problem had been caused with technical difficulties. Officials of the company described the reduction of crude shipments as a short-term failure in the work of Russian partners, which would not lead to either oil shortage or price growth on fuel.

Instead of 500,000 tons, stipulated by the contract, the republic will receive less than 300,000 tons in July. “We re in contact with Russia and other partners. There will be no problems for us and we have opportunities to receive oil from Western Europe,” the press secretary of the Czech Foreign Ministry, Zuzana Opletalova told reporters.

The state oil reserves of the republic – 916,000 tons - will be able to keep the nation’s economy running for 95 days.

Russian officials said that Russia would respond to Czech Republic’s decision to sign the radar agreement with the USA. Spokespeople for the Foreign Affairs Ministry of Russia pointed out that it would be a technical, not a diplomatic response. “Russia will have to take adequate measures to compensate the potential of dangers threatening its national security,” an official said.

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中国野菜：輸入量が回復基調に　ギョーザ事件影響薄らぐ？

　農林水産省が１４日発表した植物検疫統計（速報値）によると、６月の中国産野菜輸入量は、前年同期比１２％減の４８８９万トンとなり、中国製冷凍ギョーザによる中毒事件の発覚以降では最も減少幅が小さくなった。

　中国産野菜の輸入量は残留農薬規制を強化した「ポジティブリスト制度」導入などを受け、０６年ごろから減少傾向を示してきた。今年は１月末に発覚したギョーザ事件が響き、２月以降は３０～４０％減が続いていた。

　６月はニンジン、インゲンマメ、ニンニクが増加に転じたほか、最も輸入量の多いタマネギも９％減にとどまるなど回復基調が鮮明になった。農水省は「他の変動要因もあるが、ギョーザ事件の影響が薄らいだ可能性もある」と話している。

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中国製ギョーザ中毒：被害家族と和解　ＪＴ、生協連が慰謝料

　中国製冷凍ギョーザによる中毒事件で、被害者である千葉県在住の２家族と輸入した日本たばこ産業（ＪＴ）、販売した日本生活協同組合連合会（東京都渋谷区）との補償交渉で、それぞれ和解が成立していたことが１３日分かった。

　ＪＴと生協連側が両家族に対し、治療費や慰謝料などを支払う。市川市の母子５人の代理人の弁護士が１６日に記者会見して詳しい内容を説明する。千葉市稲毛区の母子２人は内容については公表しない予定。