Total says oil output is near its peak

Total says oil output is near its peak

By Carola Hoyos in London

Published: February 16 2009 02:00 | Last updated: February 16 2009 02:00

The world will never be able to produce more than 89m barrels a day of oil, the head of Europe's third-largest energy group has warned, citing high costs in areas such as Canada and political restrictions in countries such as Iran and Iraq.

Christophe de Margerie, chief executive of Total, the French oil and gas company, said he had revised his forecast for 2015 oil production downward by at least 4m barrels a day because of the current economic crisis and the collapse in oil prices.

He noted that national oil companies, which control the vast majority of the world's oil, and independent producers, which play a key role in finding new sources, were "substantially limited in their ability to fund investments in the current [financial] environment".

Oil prices have fallen from a record $147 a barrel in July to about $35 a barrel today, with the world consuming84m barrels of oil a day. This year is expected to be the first when oil consumption fails to rise.

Mr de Margerie warned that the glut of oil caused by the dramatic reduction in demand would be short-lived and that, in spite of the economic crisis, in the long term demand would remain constrained by supply. Three years ago, the International Energy Agency expected consumption and production to hit 130m b/d by 2025. It has since dropped its forecast to a little more than 100m b/d by 2030.

Delays and cancellations in projects to extract oil from Alberta's tar sands and Venezuela's Orinoco belt - both expensive and environmentally difficult operations in which Total is active - will cut 1.5m b/d of supply that would have come on stream had oil prices remained strong.

The rest of the revisions from Total's mid-2008 estimates came from the more pessimistic view of the political situation in Iran and Iraq, which hold the world's second and third-largest oil reserves.

Meanwhile, Mr de Margerie now expects a faster decline in production at older fields, such as those in the North Sea. At lower price levels, companies will find it harder to justify the greater cost of keeping such fields pumping.

Total's chief executive has long been an outspoken advocate of maintaining investment, rather than repeating the mistakes of previous cycles by cutting costs so much that the industry is unable to meetglobal demand when economies recover. But he is also in the midst of trying to renegotiate contracts in Canada and is considering further investments in Venezuela.

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Saudi king speeds reforms

By Abeer Allam in Riyadh and Andrew England in Abu Dhabi

Published: February 16 2009 02:00 | Last updated: February 16 2009 02:00

In his first reshuffle since acceding to the throne in 2005, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has dismissed two of the country's most influential religious figures and appointed the first woman to a senior government post.

King Abdullah has also replaced Hamad al-Sayyari, 68, the long-serving governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, the central bank, with Mohammed al-Jasser, his 54-year-old deputy. Mr Jasser, a former Saudi representative to the International Monetary Fund, has served as Sama deputy governor since 1995.

The newly appointed central bank governor yesterday signalled that the kingdom would abide by the conservative policies of his predecessor. Unlike other Gulf states, which have active sovereign wealth funds, the notoriously cautious kingdom is estimated to have invested about

85 per cent of its foreign reserves - currently more than $500bn (€388bn, £348bn) - in dollar-dominated fixed-income securities.

"While we were accused of lack of imagination, our basic strategy has been vindicated, and as such, our economy and monetary policy will continue," Mr Jasser told Al-Arabiya television.

Nour Fayez, a respected educationalist, became the first woman in a senior government job, assuming the post of deputy minister for girls' education, which until recently was under the supervision of religious authorities rather than the ministry of education.

"This is a huge step in a society that is very sensitive about including women in decision-making processes," Sabria Jawhar, an activist and columnist, told the Financial Times.

Saudi Arabia is one of the Group of 20 countries, the largest economy in the Arab world and the world's largest oil exporter. In December, the kingdom announced that it expected to run a budget deficit for the first time in seven years as it increased public spending to bolster the economy after the collapse in oil prices.

King Abdullah is widely viewed as a liberalising force in the ultra-conservative kingdom. However, critics have complained of the slow pace of reform that meets strong resistance from the powerful religious establishment, as well as members of the ruling family.

King Abdullah has overseen the establishment of a council to supervise succession within the Saud family and embarked on a policy of ecumenical diplomacy in what some see as an attempt to dilute the influence of religious extremists.

In Saturday's cabinet reshuffle, King Abdullah also dismissed Saleh alLohaidan, head of the supreme judicial council who has publicly opposed reforms and efforts to codify Islamic law, or sharia. Last September, Mr Lohaidan issued a fatwa sanctioning the killing of television owners who produce or broadcast "immoral content".

"The king had a vision of judicial and social reform, and the old guards were the main impediments," Adel al-Torafei, a Saudi political analyst, said. "His appointees reflect his vision and will speed up his agenda.''

Also replaced was Ibrahim al-Ghaith, head of the notorious religious police that enforce strict rules on gender segregation and monitor public places to ensure women remain covered.

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EU is losing its grip on Caspian gas corridor

By Borut Grgic

Published: February 15 2009 20:06 | Last updated: February 15 2009 20:06

The European Union faces two obstacles to its project to pipe gas via a southern corridor from the Caspian region and thus reduce western Europe’s dependence on Russian supplies: Turkey’s attitude and the Balkan activities of Gazprom, the state-controlled Russian oil monopoly.

After receiving less than a warm embrace by the EU, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration and the Turkish public are not eager to jump on the EU bandwagon when it comes to the southern gas corridor. Ankara’s objective is to turn Turkey into a regional energy hub. This means that Turkey would not be a transit state, but a buyer and reseller of Caspian gas to European customers. Of course, Mr Erdogan is playing hardball to get this status for Turkey. But it is a proposal the EU must refuse. There is no added value in buying Turkish gas when we can be buying Azeri and Turkmen gas directly from the producers.

European energy supply security has been suffering partly because of the problems that exist between the producing countries and transit states. The most recent example is the Russian-Ukrainian “gas war three”.

Turkey is dispensable as a transit state. To get to the Caspian gas, Europe can go across the Black Sea and connect Georgia and Romania. A connection between Azerbaijan and Georgia already exists. Romania has been subtly making a case for itself as a viable alternative to Turkey, but the Georgian option is not risk-free.

How can we forget the Georgia-Russia August war that has seen the birth of two new semi-states – Abkhazia and South Ossetia? A Moscow-controlled Abkhazia could pose a problem in building a secure gas connection from Azerbaijan through Georgia. But if Turkey keeps digging in its heels on the transit of Azerbaijan gas to Europe, even the Abkhazia problem will find a solution. The Turkish offer to the Azeris for gas is around $144 per 1,000 cubic metres – a price so low when compared with the $400-plus market price in Europe that the offer cannot be taken seriously in Baku. For the difference in the price Caspian producers can pay off the Abkhaz authorities to make sure they do not interfere with the gas terminals on Georgia’s Black Sea coast close to the Abkhazia border.

The bottom line is clear. The preferred way to get gas from Azerbaijan to Europe is via Turkey, but not under any condition. Mr Erdogan has to be flexible, and Europe, too. He is right to say the EU should open the energy chapter in membership negotiations with Turkey before talking to him about the transit issue. Part of the blame is on the shoulders of Cyprus and other EU states, such as France, who are blocking the energy chapter.

It is time to get serious about the southern corridor, lest Azerbaijani gas be sold to Russia and Iran. Both have expressed interest. If Baku sells its gas elsewhere, what will be the incentive for Turkmenistan to sell to Europe?

An attractive offer should be made to Turkey – something to the effect of the unlocking of the energy chapter in return for a transit agreement from Ankara. This is a deal the Czech EU presidency should bring when it next meets Mr Erdogan – hopefully soon.

On a separate note, Russia’s Gazprom has just concluded a deal with Serbia and bought NIS, the Serbian national oil and gas company. With NIS in its pocket, Gazprom now has access to all the downstream markets of the former Yugoslavia. Serbia was a gas hub in the past and the networks are still there, if a little rusty. By refilling them with cheaper-than-market-price Russian gas, Gazprom can establish control over the south-east European gas market in no time.

This will not necessarily derail the southern corridor option, but it can complicate developments further. With the south-east European gas market in the hands of Gazprom, what are the incentives for the Caspian producers to look for alternative options to the Russian one to deliver their gas to Europe? If they sell the gas into the Russian grid at market price minus transit, or straight to Gazprom at a competitive price, why bother with bogus alternatives? Their profits will be large and they will not have to worry about getting the gas to the market and all the complications along the way.

Europe is losing its grip on the southern gas corridor. If no quick fixes are pursued – which above all means signing a deal with Ankara on transit of Azerbaijani gas this year – it is best that we learn to deal with Russia as the only supplier of gas from the east.

The writer is director of the Institute for Strategic Studies, Brussels

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Nuclear submarines reportedly collide

LONDON, Feb 16 - Two nuclear-armed submarines, one British and one French, have collided while on separate exercises in the Atlantic Ocean, newspaper reports said on Monday.

The nuclear-powered submarines were badly damaged in the underwater collision earlier this month, the Daily Telegraph said. No one was injured in the accident and there was no damage to the vessels’ weapons, the Daily Mirror added.

The defence ministry in London said it did not comment on submarine operations and would not confirm the reports.

However, in a brief statement, it added: ”We can confirm that the UK’s deterrent capability has remained unaffected at all times and there has been no compromise to nuclear safety.”

A spokesman for France’s defence ministry declined to comment.

The Sun newspaper said modern anti-sonar technology is so good that it is possible that neither submarine detected the other in time.

After the accident in the mid-Atlantic, the Royal Navy’s HMS Vanguard returned to base in Faslane, western Scotland, with dents and scrapes visible on its hull, the Sun reported.

France’s Le Triomphant limped back to Brest, northwest France, with extensive damage to its sonar dome, which houses navigation and communication equipment, the report added.

Launched in 1992, Vanguard is one of four British submarines that carries the Trident nuclear missile, the country’s nuclear defence system. At least one of the submarines is on patrol at all times.

Le Triomphant, which entered service in 1997, carries 16 nuclear missiles and is one of four nuclear-armed submarines in the French fleet.

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Ukraine on the brink

Published: February 15 2009 19:07 | Last updated: February 15 2009 19:43

Ukraine’s name, by some accounts, means “at the edge” – which is where its economy finds itself today. Austria’s finance minister warned last week of the risk of an economic “catastrophe” in the 46m-strong country triggering a “domino effect” of problems further west. Ukraine’s finance minister, meanwhile, resigned amid differences over budgetary policy that delayed the second tranche of a $16.4bn International Monetary Fund loan, due this weekend. Fitch downgraded the country’s credit ratings to B. Some forecasters say the economy could contract by 10 per cent this year; the national currency has slid 40 per cent against the dollar. Spreads on Ukraine’s credit default swaps are over 3,000 basis points.

Orange squashedDemand and prices have plummeted for steel, previously 40 per cent of Ukraine’s exports, while industry faces higher prices for Russian gas. Cheap foreign financing has dried up. The woes are compounded by the fact that the president and prime minister, leaders of the 2004 Orange Revolution, spend more time mudslinging than working together on coherent anti-crisis policies.

The main sticking point over the IMF loan is a projected 3 per cent budget deficit this year, when the IMF’s conditions stipulated a balanced budget. But scope remains for a compromise to get the IMF programme back on track. If so, notes Dresdner Kleinwort, with public sector gross external financing needs of $3bn this year, the country should still be able to service its sovereign debt, which accounts for only about one-fifth of its total $105bn external government and corporate debt.

But with gross financing needs of about $45bn for the economy as a whole, mounting corporate and bank defaults are inevitable – as in Russia. Russia, however, has greater resources for selective corporate bail-outs. And its less dire economic position gives Moscow potential to reassert influence. Russia is one of several partners from whom Ukraine is seeking $5bn of loans to bridge its budget gap.

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Chavez wins vote to scrap term limits

By Benedict Mander in Caracas

Published: February 16 2009 06:02 | Last updated: February 16 2009 06:02

Venezuelans have given Hugo Chavez’s ”Bolivarian revolution” fresh impetus after voting in favour of a referendum that will allow the socialist leader to continue running for president indefinitely.

”The gates to the future have been opened wide,” said an emotional Mr Chavez from the balcony of the presidential palace, as a throng of ecstatic followers chanted in unison, ”Hey, ho, Chavez won’t go”.

With 54 per cent of Venezuelans voting in favour of abolishing term limits for elected officials – representing a wider margin of victory than expected – Mr Chavez announced he would stand for re-election when his current six-year term expires in January 2013.

”Today you have written my political destiny, which is the same as my life’s destiny,” said Mr Chavez, announcing a new phase in his revolution from 2009 to 2019, having completed the phase that began when he first assumed power in 1999.

The victory will re-ignite Mr Chavez’s resolve to bring ”21st century socialism” to Venezuela, less than three months after suffering a setback when a resurgent opposition won key urban centres in regional elections.

Indeed, the result represented a serious blow to Venezuela’s fragmented opposition, after little more than a year ago having succeeded in blocking Mr Chavez’s attempted overhaul of the constitution, which included scrapping presidential term limits.

”This was the campaign in which David stood up to Goliath, but Goliath won,” said Leopoldo Lopez, a leader of the opposition, which was fiercely critical of the government’s abuse of state resources in an aggressive propaganda campaign.

Cuba’s ex-president Fidel Castro, who Mr Chavez describes as his mentor, was quick to congratulate the result, saying ”its importance was impossible to measure”.

In what was the fifteenth nationwide vote since Mr Chavez was first elected a decade ago, an unusually high 67 per cent of Venezuela’s 16.8m registered voters went to the polls, according to results after 94 per cent of the vote had been counted.

With fireworks exploding into the late night sky, Mr Chavez pledged to elated supporters that the government would redouble its efforts to tackle persistent problems that have dented his popularity, such as violent crime, corruption, waste and bureaucracy.

But analysts also suggested that the comfortable victory will also embolden the government to confront serious economic challenges caused by a collapse in oil revenues.

Economists at Barclays suggest the government will soon implement a financial transaction tax, increase the value added tax rate, and cut expensive subsidies on domestic petrol prices, which are some of the cheapest in the world.

A devaluation of some 37 per cent could soon take place, argues Barclays, now that the currency has become heavily misaligned after almost four years at a fixed exchange rate at the same time as double digit inflation.

How soon economic adjustments come is uncertain, although analysts expect painful changes to be made well before legislative elections in December 2010.

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11:11 GMT, Monday, 16 February 2009
Anti-terror tactics 'weaken law'
By Frank Gardiner
Security correspondent, BBC News

Armed police in London

The UK and the US have "actively undermined" international law in the way they fight terrorism, a report by judges and lawyers has said.

The International Commission of Jurists carried out a three-year global study.

Gains made in the previous century to a shared consensus on human rights have been immensely damaged over the last seven years, it concluded.

The report will make uncomfortable reading for many in governments on both sides of the Atlantic.

After a painstaking study carried out over three years in several countries, the panel of eminent lawyers and judges have concluded that the framework of international law that existed before the 9/11 attacks was robust and effective.

Lack of safeguards

But now, it says, it is being actively undermined by many states and that liberal democracies like the US and the UK have led that undermining.

Many of the measures used to fight terrorism, says the report, are illegal and counter-productive.

The panellists express concern at the lack of adequate safeguards in the use of control orders, the weakness of diplomatic assurances in relation to deportations and at what the report calls "excessive detention without charge".

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20:29 GMT, Sunday, 15 February 2009
Ice oceans 'are not poles apart'
By Mark Kinver
Science and environment reporter, BBC News

At least 235 marine species are living in both polar regions, despite being 12,000km apart, a census has found.

Scientists were surprised to find the same species of "swimming snails" at both poles, raising questions about how they evolved and became so dispersed.

The census, involving 500 researchers from more than 25 nations, was carried out during International Polar Year.

The findings form part of the global Census of Marine Life (CoML) report, which will be published in 2010.

"Some of the more obvious species like birds and whales migrate between the poles on an annual basis," explained Ron O'Dor, CoML's co-senior scientist.

But he added the presence of smaller creatures, such as worms living in mud, sea cucumbers and "swimming snails", at both locations had particularly interested researchers on the project.

'Conveyor belt'

One of the swimming snails, or sea butterflies, found in the icy waters of both the Arctic and Antarctic was Cliona limacina.

The creature feeds on Limacina helicina, which is another swimming snail found in the waters of both poles.

Dr O'Dor said that although there was 12,000km separating the two habitats, it did not create a huge barrier for marine wildlife, as a mountain range does for terrestrial species.

"The oceans are a mixing ground," he told BBC News. "There are all kinds of currents that allow things to move around."

He also added that the temperature differences in the oceans did not vary enough to act as a thermal barrier.

"The deep ocean at the poles falls as low as -1C (30F), but the deep ocean at the equator might not get above 4C (39F).

"There is continuity in the ocean as a result of the major current systems, which we call the 'conveyor belt'; a lot of these animals have egg and larvae stages that can get transferred in this water."

'Barcode of life'

Dr O'Dor said that part of the CoML's work included examining organisms' genetic information, which would help the scientists to identify any differences between the seemingly identical species.

FROM THE BBC WORLD SERVICE
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"The traditional approach was to describe an organism's physical features, so if these organisms lived in very similar habitats, did very similar jobs and ate similar food, then they often looked very alike even if they came from different origins.

"So we are also working very closely with the Barcode of Life team at the University of Guelph (Canada), and we hope that by 2010 that we will have about 90% of marine species barcoded."

The project aims to develop DNA barcoding as a global standard for identifying species using key genetic markers - much like a shop barcode uniquely identifies a retail product.

"It's a new way to mark or classify things," Dr O'Dor observed.

"Even though organisms look exactly the same and have been identified as being the same type by traditional methods, genetic information can reveal them to be a sub-species or different populations."

COML, which began back in 2000, carried out 17 regional censuses involving more than 2,000 scientists from 82 nations.

Currently, the census teams are collating and examining the data collected by the various surveys, ahead of the publication in October 2010 of the first global Census of Marine Life.

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Portfolio of Rosoboronexport orders -- about $20 bln

16.02.2009, 13.38

MOSCOW, February 16 (Itar-Tass) -- The portfolio of orders of Rosoboronexport now amounts to about 20 billion dollars, Rosoboronexport director at large Nikolai Demidyuk told journalists on Monday.

“At present, the share of air equipment in the portfolio of orders of Rosoboronexport amounts to about 50 percent, another 50 percent account for equipment for Land forces, the Air Defense and the Navy,” Demidyuk said. “The portfolio of orders makes approximately 20 billion dollars.

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Madoff Key Aide Bongiorno Recruited Her Neighbors as Investors
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By David Voreacos and David Glovin

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Bernard Madoff’s longtime aide Annette Bongiorno recruited investors from the neighborhood in Queens, New York, where she grew up next door to Madoff’s future finance chief, a former co-worker said.

Bongiorno and her husband, Rudy, a retired electrician, recruited and stayed in touch with investors in the old neighborhood who held accounts called “RuAnn,” according to the employee, who requested anonymity. “RuAnn” is short for Rudy and Annette, the employee said. An account statement reviewed by Bloomberg News had the initials RU.

Bongiorno, 60, grew up in Howard Beach next to Frank DiPascali, a 33-year Madoff veteran who called himself chief financial officer. The families lived across from the Lindenwood Gardens co-ops, which bear the sign: “A Suburb in a City.”

“They were friends, like neighbors would be,” said Ann Casalotti, a resident of the red-brick, two-family house where Annette Bongiorno once lived next to DiPascali. Casalotti was one of thousands of Madoff customers whose name appeared on a list prepared for Irving Picard, the trustee liquidating the firm.

Madoff, 70, was arrested Dec. 11 and charged with securities fraud after allegedly confessing to running a $50 billion Ponzi scheme in which early investors were paid with money from later participants. Madoff, who is under house arrest in his New York apartment, hasn’t formally responded to the charge.

His lawyer, Ira Sorkin, declined to comment.

U.S. investigators are examining whether DiPascali, 52, played a role in the fraud, according to people familiar with the matter.

Early Employee

The ex-employee who described Bongiorno’s role in the 1980s joined Madoff when fewer than three dozen people worked at the firm, which was then based on Wall Street. Madoff and his wife attended the employee’s wedding and paid for airfare for the honeymoon.

Bongiorno, who worked as Madoff’s personal secretary in the 1980s, the former employee said, also had clerical duties at the firm. Clients who discovered that the wrong Social Security numbers on their statements were told to call Bongiorno, according to a copy of one such notice.

The Picard list, filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York, includes five Madoff investors who lived at the same addresses or within half a block of the former homes of Bongiorno and DiPascali. Bongiorno introduced DiPascali to the Madoff firm, according to the ex-employee.

In addition to Casalotti, Madoff investors include DiPascali’s brother-in-law Robert Cardile, a longtime Madoff worker. DiPascali and Cardile now live in Bridgewater, New Jersey. The list also includes the estate of John Argese; Bongiorno’s maiden name is Argese.

Former Investor

“I am” an investor, Casalotti said. “I mean, I was.”

Half a dozen other investors in Howard Beach live within a mile. One of them, an 84-year-old retired dressmaker, said she lost most of her life savings in a RuAnn account.

One Howard Beach investor who lost $9,000 and requested anonymity said he has relatives who lost money through RuAnn accounts. One was valued at more than $2 million, he said.

The investor said both DiPascali and Bongiorno told his family after Madoff’s arrest that they had nothing to do with any wrongdoing. DiPascali said his own mother lost money invested with Madoff, according to the investor.

DiPascali’s attorney Marc Mukasey declined to comment. Bongiorno, who hasn’t been charged in the case, didn’t immediately return calls to her homes in Manhasset, New York, and Boca Raton, Florida.

Clerical Assistants

Two assistants who did clerical work for Bongiorno at the Madoff firm have met with prosecutors recently, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing people familiar with the matter.

One investor who knew the Madoff family for decades said Bongiorno was a “very important person” at the firm who often rode home to Manhasset at night in a company-supplied car. She was bright and “a right-hand person” to Madoff, the investor said.

Bongiorno and DiPascali worked together on the 17th floor of the firm’s Midtown Manhattan building, where their boss ran an investment-adviser business that was off-limits to most employees, said a person familiar with the matter. Agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation have been working out of an office on the floor.

Bongiorno began recruiting small investors in the early 1980s, the employee said. While Madoff collected money from large investors, Bongiorno proposed that she gather money from smaller ones and feed it into Madoff’s fund, the employee said.

Tearful Call

The former employee said Annette Bongiorno telephoned after the collapse of Madoff’s firm, crying, to ask if the employee held Bongiorno responsible for the fraud.

The Bongiorno home in Manhasset, on Long Island, is valued at more than $2.6 million, according to property records. The Boca Raton home is assessed at $1.25 million, property records show.

The couple’s three cars include a 2007 Mercedes Benz E550 with a base price of $59,775 and a 2002 Mercedes Benz S55 AMG priced at $99,500, according to motor vehicle registration records.

Rudy Bongiorno worked as an electrician for the New York City Department of Transportation from 1975 to 1996, according to spokeswoman Nicole Garcia.

The case is U.S. v. Madoff, 08-mag-2735, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

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Madoff Scandal Ensnares Order of Patron Saint for Moralists
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By Vernon Silver and David Glovin

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bernard Madoff may be testing the faith of followers of the patron saint of moralists and confessors, who sank money into the investment funds of the alleged mastermind of the largest Ponzi scheme in history.

Roman Catholic priests and institutions linked to the Redemptorist society in the U.S. and Italy appear on a 162-page client list of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan on Feb. 4. The religious order follows the teachings of Saint Alphonsus Liguori who preached about ethical behavior.

“The world is very hard, particularly in the manner of money,” said Stan Wrobel, a priest and treasurer at the Redemptorist headquarters in Rome. “We can only pray for the people who have been damaged and for the family of Madoff because they may need spiritual help, too.”

The 70-year-old investment adviser was arrested Dec. 11, 2008, on charges of defrauding investors of $50 billion. Madoff’s firm also worked with Jewish charities, universities and nonprofit groups including the Boston-based Carl and Ruth Shapiro Family Foundation; Yeshiva University in Manhattan; and the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles

The Redemptorists, whose 5,400 priests and brothers work in 78 countries, haven’t disclosed how much they may have lost and are still tallying the sum, according to Treasurer Edmund Faliskie at the group’s Northeast U.S. office in Brooklyn, New York.

‘Significant’ Investment

A “significant” amount of money was invested starting in 1992, said Marion Lunt, a spokeswoman for the Redemptorist fathers in the U.S. The money was used to fund scholarships for inner-city children, care for elderly priests and other charitable causes, she said. Lunt declined to provide further financial details.

“We’re working with legal counsel and our accountant and trying to figure out how to go forward,” said Faliskie, a priest who became treasurer in August.

The Madoff scandal and its implications for business ethics would be fodder for the Redemptorists’ meditation, even if they hadn’t been a victim, said Martin McKeever, president of the Alphonsian Academy, an institute of moral theology in Rome.

Business ethics are “an important question for moral theology,” said McKeever, a Redemptorist priest who specializes in political theory. The topic has been studied for decades, “apart from this particular episode.”

The society’s headquarters invested with Madoff through the group’s U.S. members, according to a faxed statement from the Rome office. Returns on the investment helped fund tsunami relief in Asia in 2004, and hurricane aid to Haiti and Cuba in 2008, the statement said.

Saint Thomas Diocese

Other investors linked to the society include a pension fund at the Redemptorist Fathers’ regional headquarters in Brooklyn; the Saint Thomas diocese in the U.S. Virgin Islands and priests in Baltimore; New Smyrna Beach, Florida; and San Juan, Puerto Rico, according to the client list, which covered the year before Madoff’s arrest and was submitted by the trustee liquidating the investment adviser’s assets.

“It would appear that much of the savings of the diocese and the endowment funds of St. Mary and St. Patrick schools have apparently been lost,” Bishop Herbert Bevard, who leads the Saint Thomas diocese, told parishioners in a Dec. 19 letter.

Investments with Madoff date back “several decades” and began with the Caribbean diocese’s Saint Patrick Church on the island of Saint Croix, the bishop said. Redemptorist priests have served the diocese since 1856.

No ‘Warning Flags’

“The returns that Mr. Madoff’s firm provided were consistently good over the years -- but not so good that they raised warning flags,” Bevard wrote.

The Congregation of the Most Holy Redeemer, known as the Redemptorists, was founded by Alphonsus Liguori, who was born in 1696 to a noble family in Marianella, near Naples. He began his career as a lawyer. To his father’s disappointment, he abandoned his civil practice to become a priest at the age of 30, according to a biography published by the group.

In 1950, Pope Pius XII named Saint Alphonsus the patron saint of moralists and confessors.

Madoff was charged by federal prosecutors with securities fraud for an alleged ruse that paid off early investors with money from later participants. He hasn’t formally responded to the charge and faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted.

At our Lady of Perpetual Help, a Brooklyn, New York, church that dominates a block of two-family houses, Father Joseph Tizio, 59, says the Redemptorists, like all Catholic faiths, believe forgiveness is possible, even for Madoff.

Tizio says it’s not his place to grant it.

“Only God can forgive,” said Tizio in an interview inside a church that caters to Spanish, Chinese and Vietnamese immigrants. “I can’t forgive Bernie Madoff anything. I would never presume to read his heart.”

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ＧＤＰマイナス12.7％　10―12月実質年率、35年ぶりの減少率

　内閣府が16日発表した2008年10―12月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）速報値は物価変動の影響を除いた実質で前期比3.3％減、年率換算で12.7％減となった。3四半期連続のマイナス成長で、減少率は第1次石油危機時だった1974年1―3月期の年率13.1％減に続く約35年ぶりの大きさ。金融危機をきっかけにした世界不況の影響で輸出が過去最大の落ち込みとなり、個人消費、設備投資も大きく減った。日本経済は外需を中心に総崩れの状態で、深刻な景気後退に入った。

　3四半期連続のマイナス成長は、ＩＴ（情報技術）バブルの崩壊で景気が後退した01年4―6月期から10―12月期にかけて以来。10―12月期の実績は日経グループのＱＵＩＣＫが「コンセンサス・マクロ（経済予測）」で民間調査機関30社に聞いた直前の予測の平均値（前期比年率11.8％減）を下回った。(08:53)

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首都圏マンション発売、24％減　１月、16年ぶりの1000戸台

　不動産経済研究所（東京・新宿）が16日発表した1月の首都圏マンション発売戸数は前年同月比24.1％減の1760戸となった。17カ月連続のマイナスで、1月の発売戸数が1000戸台となるのは16年ぶり。近畿圏の発売戸数も5.4％減の1412戸と落ち込んだ。分譲各社が高水準の在庫処分を優先し、新規物件の発売が大幅に落ち込んだ。

　首都圏では東京23区と神奈川県の発売は前年同月を上回ったが、埼玉県や千葉県などの落ち込みが大きく、全体を押し下げた。(19:19)

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乳飲料など容量・価格を変更　明治乳業　生乳価格上昇などで

　明治乳業は16日、店頭販売用のヨーグルトや乳飲料など22品目について3月1日から順次、容量や希望小売価格の見直しを実施すると発表した。生産者団体との生乳取引価格が3月に上がる一方で景気悪化で販売が落ち込んでいるため、商品ごとに需要動向をみて実質的な値上げと値下げを混在させた。

　実質的な値上げとなるのは16品目で「明治プロビオヨーグルトＬＧ21」の内容量を120グラムから112グラムに減らすほか、「明治ヨーグルト」などは価格を下げるものの容量も減らす。

　一方、実質的な値下げとなるのは税別の希望小売価格を110円から105円に引き下げる「明治いちごオ・レ」や、内容量を162グラムから170グラムに増やす「明治ブルガリアヨーグルト　りんご低脂肪」など6品目。

　このほか宅配専用商品10品目では価格は据え置くが内容量を少なくして、乳価の引き上げに対応する。(18:28)

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１月の発受電電力量、６カ月連続減　産業用落ち込む

　電気事業連合会が16日まとめた1月の発受電電力量（速報、10社計）は、前年同月比6.4％減の846億4000万キロワット時だった。前年実績を下回るのは6カ月連続で、減少率も2008年12月の4.7％から拡大した。製造業で減産の動きが相次ぎ、産業用需要が落ち込んだ。

　沖縄電力を除く9社が前年実績を下回った。自動車関連の工場が多い中部は10.5％減と減少率が最も大きく、中国も9.9％減、東北は8.4％減った。

　発電の内訳は設備利用率が上がった原子力が11.9％増の237億6000万キロワット時となった。火力は13.9％減の434億3000万キロワット時、水力は2割減の31億8000万キロワット時だった。(18:14)

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東京製鉄、電炉初の車向け鋼板納入へ　品質基準満たす

　電炉最大手の東京製鉄は年内にも日産自動車など国内自動車メーカーに鋼板の納入を始める。各社にサンプル品を出荷、このほど電炉として初めて自動車メーカーの品質基準をクリアした。自動車向け鋼板は高級鋼に位置づけられる高炉メーカー品が独占しているが、自動車各社は急速な業績悪化を受け、コスト削減のために調達戦略を見直している。東京製鉄は割安な価格を武器に攻勢をかける。

　東京製鉄は日産自動車、ホンダなど自動車メーカーへ鋼板をサンプル出荷し、複数社から、安全、品質水準などの性能を満たす認定を得た。外板でなく、内部の一般部品や補強材への採用を見込んでおり、新型車発売などにあわせ、早ければ年内にも出荷を始める。(16:00)

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三菱重工、原子力関連事業の3子会社を統合

　三菱重工業は16日、原子力関連事業を手掛ける3子会社を統合すると発表した。原子炉の炉心からプラント全体までを一貫して設計し、安全解析もできる体制を整えることで開発速度や事業の効率性を高める。国内市場のほか、中型プラント開発の強化などで海外の開拓も進める。

　統合するのは原子炉関連設備の設計をするエンジニアリング開発（横浜市）、システム開発や安全性評価のコンピュータソフト開発（東京・港）、新型炉技術開発（同）の3社。存続会社はエンジニアリング開発で、4月1日付で社名を「ＭＨＩ原子力エンジニアリング」に改め、本社を東京都港区に移す。統合する3 社の従業員計250人は原則新会社に移る。新会社は2012年度に売上高を60億円とすることを目指す。

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硫化水素自殺：マンション退去相次ぎ不動産会社が損賠提訴

　札幌市内のマンションで昨年７月に起きた硫化水素による自殺をめぐり、マンションを賃貸していたさいたま市浦和区の不動産会社が、死亡した男性を同居させていた入居者の女性と連帯保証人の男性＝埼玉県新座市＝の２人を相手取り、３０００万円の損害賠償を求めてさいたま地裁に提訴したことが１６日分かった。不動産会社は「退去や入居取り消しが相次ぎ、収入が激減した」としている。

　訴状によると、このマンションは４階建て。１階がテナント、２階以上に１５室ある。昨年７月３１日、４階の一室にある浴室で、男性が硫化水素を発生させて自殺しているのが見つかった。

　同社は、▽自殺後に３～４階の計８部屋で退去や入居取り消しがあった▽多くの周辺住民が自殺を知っており、少なくとも今後４年間は８部屋の賃料を約２割下げないと入居者が見つからない▽女性は同居人が自殺しないよう部屋を管理する義務を怠った－－などとして、１億３０２２万円の損害のうち３０００万円を女性と保証人に支払うよう求めている。

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対中投資：３２％減　４カ月連続前年下回る…１月

　中国商務省は１６日、１月の海外からの対中直接投資実行額が前年同月比３２．７％減の７５億４１００万ドル（約６９００億円）にとどまったと発表した。世界的な金融危機の影響で昨年１０月以降、４カ月連続で前年を下回った。新華社が伝えた。

　対中投資は昨年、前年比２３．６％増の９２３億９５００万ドルと３年続けて過去最高を記録したが、世界経済の回復が遅れれば、今年は年間で４年ぶりに前年水準を下回る可能性があるとの指摘も出ている。

　１月の落ち込み幅は昨年１１月の３６．５％減に次ぐ水準。１月２５日から１週間続いた春節（旧正月）休暇も影響した。（共同）

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クリントン米国務長官：羽田空港に到着
日本に到着し手を振るクリントン米国務長官＝羽田空港で２００９年２月１６日午後７時５１分、内藤絵美撮影
日本に到着し手を振るクリントン米国務長官＝羽田空港で２００９年２月１６日午後７時５１分、内藤絵美撮影

　クリントン米国務長官は１６日夜、特別機で羽田空港に到着した。日米同盟を「アジア政策の礎石」と位置付けており、今回の訪日は、その重要性を再確認するのが目的となる。　長官は到着後「歴史的な日米同盟を強化する。太平洋地域との関係は２１世紀の課題に対処するため欠くことはできない」と述べた。

　ロイター通信によると長官は機中で記者団に対し、北朝鮮による日本人拉致問題について「日本だけの懸案ではない。６カ国協議（で取り上げる問題）の一部だ」と語ったうえで、「北朝鮮に（拉致に関する）情報を積極的に公開するよう強く求める」と述べた。

　長官は１７日に麻生太郎首相、中曽根弘文外相、浜田靖一防衛相、民主党の小沢一郎代表と会談。また日本人拉致被害者の家族との面会や、東京大学で市民との対話集会を行う。

　長官は１８日、次の訪問国のインドネシアに向け出発。その後、韓国、中国を歴訪して２２日に帰途に就く。

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鳥衝突：夜間に３分の１発生、羽田空港の発着増で懸念も
羽田空港の時間帯別鳥衝突発生割合
羽田空港の時間帯別鳥衝突発生割合

　米ＵＳエアウェイズ機が１月、ハドソン川に不時着水した事故を受け、国土交通省は、国内で起きた航空機への鳥衝突（バードストライク）の分析結果をまとめた。発生件数は日中が多いが、便数の少ない夜間も３分の１あった。有識者らで作る鳥衝突防止対策検討会は、夜間対策に積極的に乗り出すよう国交省に求める方針だ。

　国交省によると、過去５年間に全国で起きた鳥衝突の発生件数は▽０４年９７２件▽０５年１１０８件▽０６年１２３２件▽０７年１３２０件▽０８年１１５９件。

　０８年の衝突時間帯は、日中が６８４件（５９％）で、夜間（日没以降）は３９４件（３４％）、その他は夕暮れや夜明け時だった。また衝突場所の分析では、進入・着陸時が６６７件（５８％）、離陸・上昇時が３４２件（３０％）で、空港周辺での被害がほとんどだった。

　羽田空港では０４年以降、発生数は約１００～約１７０件だが、夜間の割合は増加傾向にある。だがその理由は分からないという。

　航空保安協会は日中にバードパトロールを行い、空砲、花火などを使って野鳥を追い払っているが、夜間は鳥の発見が困難なことや、銃器の使用規制があるため、事実上野放しの状態になっている。

　羽田空港は１０年に新Ｄ滑走路の供用を始め、１日当たりの発着が９５０機（０７年）から、最大で約１２００機に増える見込みだ。夜間の発着も増えるため、バードストライクの増加が懸念される。

　検討会は鳥の追い出しに効果が高いバードパトロールの夜間運用を求めていく。一方、国交省は、鳥の発見、衝突情報をデータベース化して共有するシステムの作成を始めており、今後は大音量を発生して鳥を追い払う装置や米国で試行されているレーダーを使った鳥検知システムなどの導入も検討する。

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仮処分の判断は来月以降…大相撲、元露鵬と元白露山

　尿検査で大麻に陽性反応を示し、昨年９月に日本相撲協会を解雇された元露鵬と元白露山のロシア出身兄弟が力士としての地位確認を求めた仮処分申し立ての審尋が１６日、東京地裁で開かれ、元露鵬らの代理人を務める塩谷安男弁護士によると、仮処分の判断は来月以降に下される見込みとなった。

　この日の審尋で、元力士側と相撲協会側の双方が主張を終えた。塩谷弁護士は「もし仮処分が認められなかった場合は、東京高裁に抗告するつもり」と、徹底抗戦の構えを見せた。