Libya sets sights on majority stake in UniCredit

Libya sets sights on majority stake in UniCredit

By Vincent Boland in Milan

Published: February 10 2009 02:00 | Last updated: February 10 2009 02:00

Libya's central bank agreed to buy an extra €250m ($326m) of convertible bonds issued by UniCredit, potentially making it the biggest shareholder in the Italian bank.

The move makes the Libyan government agency a potentially crucial actor in a clash between management at UniCredit and its largest existing Italian shareholder.

UniCredit is looking to boost its balance sheet in the teeth of the global financial crisis. But it has lost the support of the Cariverona Foundation, which owns a 6 per cent stake and stunned investors last week by saying it would not subscribe to its €3bn bond issue.

Cariverona's move is seen in UniCredit as a snub to Alessandro Profumo, the bank's chief executive. The foundation is unhappy with the collapse in the shares, which fell 75 per cent in 2008, and the fact that UniCredit scrapped its dividend for 2008. It is said to be manoeuvring to replace Dieter Rampl, UniCredit chairman - and possibly Mr Profumo - at the bank's annual meeting in the spring.

Libya's central bank, seen as its sovereign wealth fund, owns 4.6 per cent of UniCredit. It agreed last October to invest €500m in the convertible issue.

Libya's ambassador in Rome told Reuters yesterday it had agreed to invest an additional €250m after an approach from the bank. The bonds can be converted at about €4.50 a share, about 300 per cent higher than UniCredit's share price yesterday. If the stake was converted, it would give the Libyan central bank a 7 per cent stake in UniCredit.

Shareholders in UniCredit are also restricted to 5 per cent voting rights, which gives all big shareholders the same voting weight. But analysts said Libya's move could increase its chances of a seat on UniCredit's board, an issue that could spur further tension between the existing shareholders and the management.

It could also create a headache for the Italian government, which has issued ambivalent messages about foreign government investment in Italian companies. Libya has suggested in recent months that it would consider greater investment in Italian companies.

The governance committee of UniCredit's board met yesterday and issued an endorsement of both Mr Profumo and Mr Rampl.

It is rare for Italian banking foundations to snub the banks they invest in, and they are regarded as the ultimate long-term shareholders. The move by Cariverona, founded in 1825 and based in Verona, puts that contention into question.

UniCredit has emerged as the biggest bank in central and eastern Europe. Its shares rose 5 per cent yesterday.

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Short View: Reading the bond tea leaves

By John Authers

Published: February 9 2009 21:27 | Last updated: February 9 2009 21:27

When politicians are about to take a position, traders try to avoid doing any such thing. With the shape and size of the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus package still in the balance, and with any number of contradictory leaks on the bank rescue package to come today from the Treasury, nobody wanted to take a strong position. The potential cost of getting the politicians wrong was just too high.

But there was one exception. The US Treasury bond sell-off continued, bringing the yield on the 10-year bond above 3 per cent for the first time since November, while the two-year yield climbed above 1 per cent. The 10-year was yielding less than 2.1 per cent at the turn of the year.

The sell-off is either, in keeping with the Obama zeitgeist, a sign of hope, that
the politicians will succeed in reflating the economy (meaning it is wise to sell bonds).

Or it shows that investors are exiting bonds, anxious about the huge extra issuance that will be needed from the US Treasury to finance the stimulus. If so, it is a sign of fear, rather than hope. Higher borrowing costs would make it harder to pay for the stimulus. It could signal that investors who pushed yields down to remarkable lows, are not prepared to lend more.

For now, there is not enough evidence to support either interpretation. Yields remain historically low; 10-year yields were 4 per cent as recently as last August. The market may simply be showing its impatience with the Federal Reserve, which is dangling the possibility of buying Treasuries. So far, then, this is only a correction from an extreme. Other relative riskier assets have recovered slightly in recent weeks, showing the market is tentatively betting on a successful reflation.

If bonds were truly in a bubble, however, history teaches it will be very hard to deflate it slowly, without a big pop.

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Congo pressed over China minerals accord

By Barney Jopson in Kinshasa

Published: February 10 2009 02:00 | Last updated: February 10 2009 02:00

China's biggest investment deal in Africa is faltering as western donors put pressure on the Democratic Republic of Congo to renegotiate a minerals-for-infrastructure contract valued at $9bn (€6.9bn, £6bn).

Under the deal, first announced in 2007 but signed last year, a consortium of state-owned Chinese companies agreed to build roads, railways, hospitals and universities in return for the right to develop a copper and cobalt mine.

The plan aimed to allow the country, still recovering from a civil war, to translate its mineral wealth into tangible development.

But pressure to alter the deal has come from western donors that will not offer relief on historic debt of $11bn to the cash-strapped government of President Joseph Kabila if it accepts Chinese financing on commercial terms. The global financial crisis has added to the pressure because reduced commodity prices raise questions over how far mining revenues will cover the infrastructure costs.

The Congo government wants to refine the deal, but does not want to drive China away, or admit to Congolese voters ahead of a 2011 election that the developmental centrepiece of Mr Kabila's current term is going awry. The IMF has "urged the [Congolese] authorities to take all actions to ensure that the final agreement [with China] is consistent with debt sustainability".

Both the IMF and World Bank have attempted to persuade the Chinese to consider changes to the deal.

"Changes will come," said Victor Kasongo, Congo's deputy minister of mines, adding that the government was awaiting the results of a feasibility study on the "robustness" of the project.

Mr Kasongo said Congo wanted to ensure the deal met the criteria for "fair commerce" and was willing to address donors' concerns. "Congo has chosen to carry on with the IMF and World Bank economic route and at the same time to pursue development with Chinese money," he said.

Most western donors have said they support the deal "in principle" as it gives Congo access to capital on a scale it could not attain otherwise. But, led by the Paris Club of creditors and the IMF, they have raised objections to specific provisions, such as that the deal would give the Chinese consortium state financial guarantees, including some that would earmark government revenues and make China a privileged creditor.

But Wu Zexian, China's ambassador to Congo, said that Beijing was reluctant to forego these. "They [western institutions] are wrong to ask Congo to remove the state guarantee. That is blackmail," he said. "This is a poor country that needs to develop. Why force the country to modify the clause?

"We cannot accept that. It's discriminatory."

When the deal was struck China's appetite for copper and cobalt was insatiable, but if it is scaled back or unravels, it would bea turning point in China's quest for African resources, which had threatened to marginalise western donors.

"Now everything depends on the feasibility of the Chinese mine, to ensure that the money we requested for infrastructure and for upgrading the mine won't bring too large a debt burden," said Mr Kasongo.

The $9bn financing is split into three tranches of $3bn; one for setting up the mining operation and two for nationwide infrastructure investments, including more than 3,500km of roads and nearly 3,000km of railways.

Asked what lessons the rest of Africa could draw from Congo's experience with China, Mr Kasongo said: "Nobody should go it alone. We are the first ones to leave the door open to both of them [China and western institutions] because they are both servicing us."

China was not concerned about "short-term" falls in commodity prices because it was making a long-term investment, he added.

But given the tensions surrounding the deal, one economist in Kinshasa said: "The Congolese government has bet on [both] China and the IMF and now they're in danger of losing both."

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Russian debt worries hit euro

By Peter Garnham

Published: February 10 2009 10:54 | Last updated: February 10 2009 10:54

The euro suffered on Tuesday as a report that Russia was looking to restructure $400bn of its outstanding corporate debt highlighted concerns over the eurozone’s exposure to problems in emerging Europe.

Analysts said the report triggered a knee-jerk bout of heavy euro selling, given the eurozone’s high exposure to the region through bank lending. According to the Bank for International Settlements, European banks’ foreign claims on Russia totalled just over $200bn, or around 1 per cent of GDP.

The report was denied by Anatoly Aksakov the head of the Russian Association of Regional Banks, but this did little to lift sentiment towards the euro.

“We are of the view that there is no smoke without fire, and subsequently remain alert to future developments,” said Lee Hardman at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

“The incident clearly highlights that concerns over the financial stability of Russia and other developing European countries will continue to weigh on the euro in the year ahead.”

The euro fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2911 against the dollar, lost 1.1 per cent to Y117.73 against the yen and dropped 0.7 per cent to SFr1.7220 against the Swiss franc.

Analysts said the report highlighted problems found not only found in Russia, but also in central and eastern Europe, namely that imported capital had often been mis-allocated into unproductive investments, failing to deliver the required returns to cover capital costs.

Indeed, the region has accumulated substantial current account deficits which have been mainly funded via selling bonds and equities to global investors.

Indeed, central and eastern European currencies performed worse than the euro.

The Hungarian forint dropped 0.8 per cent to Ft289.75 against the single currency, while the Polish zloty lost 1 per cent to 4.4735zlotys and the Czech koruna fell 1.5 per cent to Kc28.1350.

Hans Redeker at BNP Paribas said the lack of global liquidity combined with increasing doubt concerning local corporate default risks suggested central and eastern Europe would underperform for some time, a prospect that did not bode well for the euro in the long term.

“Bear in mind that most central and eastern European countries hold 100 per cent of their currency reserves in euros, suggesting further liquidation of local assets held in foreign accounts means currency reserves will shrink,” he said.

Meanwhile, concerns over Russia helped to increase risk aversion and boost safe haven demand for the yen and the dollar.

Analysts said worries over the effectiveness of the US administration’s new bail out plan for US banks, due to be unveiled Tim Geithner, US Treasury Secretary, later in the session, also helped support both currencies.

The yen rose 0.3 per cent to Y91.20 against the dollar, climbed 0.7 per cent to Y135.26 against the pound and gained 2 per cent to Y60.93 against the Australian dollar.

The dollar rose 0.7 per cent to $1.4804 against the pound, climbed 0.8 per cent to C$1.2264 against the Canadian dollar and gained 1.7 per cent to $0.6677 against the Australian dollar.

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「納得いくまで闘う」＝時津風部屋死亡力士の父

　大相撲時津風部屋の序ノ口力士斉藤俊さん＝当時（１７）＝の父正人さん（５２）は、元親方山本順一被告（５８）の初公判を前に「（俊さんが亡くなった）一昨年６月から気持ちはずっと止まった状態。納得のいく判決が出るまで闘いたい」と話した。

　昨年１１月、正人さん夫妻の元に１通の封書が届いた。差出人は山本被告。同封されていた２枚の便せんには、「おわび申し上げます」などと謝罪の言葉が繰り返し記されていたが、自分の責任について書かれていたのは「親方として至らなかったばかりに俊君の将来が失われることになってしまい…」というくだりだけだった。

　山本被告は、初公判で起訴事実を否認する見通しだ。共謀したとして同じ傷害致死罪に問われた兄弟子３人は昨年１２月、執行猶予付きの有罪判決を受け、そのまま確定した。正人さんは「（兄弟子３人には）１日でもいいから実刑を受け、反省してほしい」と話していたが、「３人の刑を軽くした分、元親方の量刑を重くしてくれればと思ったからこそ我慢した」と心の内を明かした。　

　肌身離さず持っているペンダントには、俊さんが亡くなる直前に何度もたたき付けられた愛知県犬山市の土俵の砂が入っている。「俊の無念さを忘れないため」と話す正人さんは「兄弟子の判決で共謀関係も認定されたのに、どうして認めないのか。聞いてみたい」とぎゅっと口元を引き締めた。（了）

斉藤俊（さいとう・たかし）、山本順一（やまもと・じゅんいち）、芦沢政治（あしざわ・まさはる）、正人（まさと）

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元時津風親方、１２日に初公判 暴行と死亡の因果関係争う

　大相撲時津風部屋の序ノ口力士、時太山＝当時（１７）、本名斉藤俊さん＝の暴行死事件で、傷害致死罪に問われた元親方山本順一被告（５８）の初公判が１２日、名古屋地裁（芦沢政治裁判長）で開かれる。

　公判前整理手続きで争点は暴行と斉藤さんの死亡との因果関係や、被告の違法性の認識などに絞られた。山本被告は全面的に争うとみられ、検察側は「被告の指示で暴行が行われた」と主張する。

　名古屋地裁は昨年１２月、山本被告の指示による暴行と認定して、傷害致死罪に問われた兄弟子３人に執行猶予付きの有罪判決を言い渡した。判決は確定し、３人は１３日以降の公判で証人として出廷する予定。

　起訴状によると、山本被告は兄弟子らと共謀。２００７年６月２５日、斉藤さんが愛知県犬山市の宿舎から逃げたことに腹を立てた山本被告が兄弟子らに指示、斉藤さんを木の棒で殴るなど暴行。翌２６日には、ぶつかりげいこと称して土俵にたたきつけ、金属バットで殴り、多発外傷性ショックで死亡させた。

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アイフルの08年４―12月期、純利益70％減

　アイフルが10日発表した2008年4―12月期の連結決算は、純利益が前年同期比70％減の92億円となった。利息制限法の上限を超える利息（過払い金）の返還が続き、利息返還費用が膨らんだことが響いた。

　営業収益は23％減の2429億円。改正貸金業法の全面施行に向け、融資基準を厳格化したほか、貸出金利の引き下げで営業貸付金利息が減少。与信の厳格化で貸倒費用は減ったが、利息返還費用の増加を補えず、経常利益は66％減の108億円だった。09年3月期通期の業績見通しは据え置いた。(21: 39)

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農業生産法人の所得、10年で３割増に　農水省

　農林水産省は10日、コメを中心に作っている農業生産法人などの利益にあたる農業所得が10年間で1法人当たり約3割増えたと発表した。2007年の統計で2131万円に増加。作付面積が約48ヘクタールと2割程度広がったことなどでコストを抑えられたという。統計は10年前と比較可能な22法人が対象。法人数は05年に約2万7000もあるため、農水省は今回の分析結果は全国の実態を表したものではないとしている。

　22法人のうち、15法人で所得が増えた。原油や肥料価格の高騰を規模拡大などで吸収した。一方、農業所得が減少した法人は規模を拡大できなかったため、米価下落の影響を受けた。(20:51)

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大証金、30億円の増資を正式発表

　大阪証券金融は10日、優先株による第三者割当増資を実施すると正式発表した。増資額は30億円。野村ホールディングスなど8社が引き受ける見通しで、払込期日は3月31日。リーマン・ブラザーズ証券との株券貸借取引に関連して発生した100億円超の損失などによる純資産減少を補う。

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関空連絡橋の利用税撤回　大阪府泉佐野市

　大阪府泉佐野市は10日、関西国際空港と対岸を結ぶ連絡橋の国有化に伴う固定資産税の減収を補う独自課税を撤回すると表明した。条例により通行車両から往復150円の利用税を徴収する予定だったが、国土交通省が空港2期島の護岸工事後に得られる固定資産税で減収分を補てんできると市側に提案したため。 (16:01)

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「スコッチ」ブランドの高級ハサミ　住友スリーエム

　住友スリーエムは事務用品の「スコッチ」ブランドで、高級ハサミ「プレミアムシザーズ」を発売した。スコッチは表面に鉛筆で字がかける粘着テープなどで知られるが、ハサミを商品化するのは初めて。切れ味を鋭くするため刃は最高級の特殊ステンレス鋼を採用した。柄の部分はポリプロピレン樹脂にガラス繊維を配合した素材を使い、その表面をオレフィン系ゴムで覆って手になじむようにした。ネジは特殊なリングを含めた4種類の部品を使い、がたつきを抑えたとしている。価格は刃渡り7センチのタイプが945円、8.5センチのタイプが1260円。(11:01)

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東京都と区、屋外広告撤去に助成　臨海部と庭園周辺

　東京都は2009年度、国内外の観光客の集まる庭園周辺や臨海部の景観の改善を目的に、これらの地域の屋外広告の撤去を助成する。都と区が合わせて撤去費用の3分の2を補助する。すでにこれらの地域では広告規制を始めているが、解体費用などがかさむこともあり撤去は進んでいない。助成制度の創設で、11 年度までに規制対象のすべての広告の撤去を目指す。

　助成の対象地域は、新宿御苑（新宿、渋谷区）や浜離宮恩賜庭園（中央区）など8カ所の文化財庭園周辺と、晴海や有明など臨海部。高さ20メートル以上の屋上に設置された屋外広告などを撤去する費用を助成する。都と地元の区がそれぞれ費用の3分の1を補助する。

　壁面広告を改装する場合は、都と区が合わせて費用の2分の1を補助する。電飾をなくしたり、派手な色を彩度の低い色に塗り替えたりする費用を助成する。

　都は09年度予算案に助成費用として2億6000万円を盛り込んだ。09年度中に約80件の撤去を目指す。

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三笠フーズ社長ら逮捕　「事故米」不正転売の疑い

　残留農薬で汚染された「事故米」の不正転売事件で、大阪、福岡、熊本3府県警合同捜査本部は10日、米粉加工会社「三笠フーズ」（大阪市北区、破産手続き中）社長の冬木三男容疑者（73）ら5人を不正競争防止法違反（虚偽表示）容疑で逮捕した。「食の安全」を揺るがせた不正転売は経営陣らの刑事責任が問われる事態に発展した。

　逮捕したのはほかに元顧問で米穀仲介業「サン商事」（福岡市）経営、宮崎一雄（77）、元社長秘書、古谷幸作（59）、グループ会社「辰之巳」（東京・中央、破産手続き中）の元営業課長、宮崎雄三（49）、米穀仲介業「マルモ商事」（佐賀県唐津市）社長、丸山茂夫（60）の4容疑者。

　いずれも容疑を認めているという。これまでの調べに冬木容疑者は「金もうけのためだった」と供述しているという。(11:12)

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汚染米転売：酒造各社「売り上げ回復せず」

　汚染米を麹（こうじ）に使用するなどで被害を受けた熊本、鹿児島の酒造会社は、三笠フーズトップらの逮捕（１０日）を冷静に見守った。

　熊本県城南町の美少年酒造（緒方直明社長）では、問題発覚直後の０８年９、１０月の売り上げが前年同月比で約１０分の１に激減。原料米は、ＪＡなどから仕入れるようにし、第三者機関に依頼して残留農薬など約３５０項目のチェックを始めた。精米会社に対しては月１回の抜き打ち検査をしている。１２月には汚染米被害対象品となった「美少女」の代替品として新商品「宵美人」を発売、３月１０日には「県産米」「熊本酵母」など地元にこだわった「美少年　四段仕込み本醸造」発売も予定する。

　１１～１月の売り上げは前年同期比約５０％にまで回復してきたが緒方伸太郎副社長は「思い通りの回復とは言えない。経営安定するには風評被害からの回復が不可欠だ」と話す。合同捜査本部が三笠トップらの逮捕に踏み切ったことに「来るべき時が来たという気持ち」と話した。

　鹿児島県日置市の焼酎メーカー「西酒造」（西陽一郎社長）は「平然とだましていた三笠フーズに責任を問いたい」と三笠フーズなどに対して約１９億円の損害賠償を求めた訴訟を東京地裁に起こしている。汚染米を麹として使用した芋焼酎「薩摩宝山」約１０６６キロリットルについて県などの検査で「安全性に問題はない」とされたが、自主回収し廃棄した。

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ロンドン撤退など戦線縮小…みずほ損失に“疑心暗鬼”

ＬＢＯに疑念

　４月１日付で３首脳が一斉に交代するみずほフィナンシャルグループ。そのトップ交代を控え、みずほグループはＬＢＯ（レバレッジド・バイ・アウト）で巨額損失を抱えているのではないか－との疑念を抱く金融関係者は多い。みずほフィナンシャルグループ広報室は「第３四半期決算を発表した際（１月３０日）にすべて公表しており、それ以外に海外のＬＢＯ案件に絡む損失はない」と完全否定しているが、市場の疑心暗鬼は晴れそうもない。

　金融庁関係者によると「みずほコーポレート銀行とみずほ証券が海外で手掛けたＬＢＯファイナンスで巨額の損失を抱えているのではないか－との疑念が、金融関係者の間で根強い」という。

　ＬＢＯとは、買収を計画している企業が、買収される企業の資産を担保に買収資金の調達を行うファイナンススキームのこと。自社の担保に余力がなくても買収に打って出られる利点があることから、最近のＭ＆Ａ（企業の合併・買収）の主流になっている。

　みずほグループが手掛けたＬＢＯファイナンスの案件について、資金の回収に懸念が生じているものがあるが、そのファイナンスは未引当の状態にあるというのだ。

　「ウワサになっている海外ＬＢＯファイナンス案件が未引当ということは、みずほではこのファイナンスを回収可能な正常債権と判断しているということかもしれない。いずれにしても、（金融庁が検査などを通して）今後チェックすることになるだろう」（先の金融庁関係者）

　債権の評価をめぐっては、金融機関が正常先と判断していても、金融庁から認められないケースもあるため、成り行きが注目される。

　金融関係者がみずほを不安視する背景には、最近の動向も大きくかかわっているようだ。

　市場では「みずほグループでは証券回りを中心に人材の流出が続いていることもあって、いろいろなウワサが飛び交いやすい環境にある」（証券筋）との指摘も。

　また、みずほコーポレート銀が米国などの取引先の業況が悪化していることを受け、海外での融資を抑える「総量規制」に乗り出した、とも一部で報じられている。

　同行は昨年１２月中旬、海外の２２の支店などに融資抑制を通達。内容は、０９年１～３月の間、ドルなど外貨の融資残高は０８年９月末と同じ規模に抑えるとともに、円での貸し出しも原則として同１１月末比で横ばいに抑えるというものだ。

　金融危機の影響で世界的な「ドル不足」が続くなか、危機の影響が軽微といわれる邦銀についても、市場からのドル調達に逼迫（ひっぱく）感が出ていることが背景にある。

【コーポレート銀の融資抑制は不可解】

　ただ、国内の優良な資金需要が落ち込むなか、アジアを中心に海外での融資は有望視される収益源であり、大手銀行がこぞって力を入れているのも事実だ。

　「主戦場ともいえる海外部門で、みずほコーポレート銀が融資の抑制に乗り出すのは、金融市場では不可解に映る。このことも、みずほは何らかの損失を抱えているのではないかとのウワサに信憑（しんぴょう）性を与えている」（金融庁関係者）という。

　また、ロンドンにある拠点を中心に展開する計画だった証券化関連ビジネスについても、当面、市場の混乱が収束する見込みがないことから、事実上の撤退を決めた。これに伴い、ロンドンの子会社を中心に３００人規模の人員削減に踏み切るとみられる。

　これら投資銀行業務における戦線縮小も、巨額の含み損が隠されているのではないかとの疑心暗鬼を、金融関係者の間に生じさせる土壌になっているようだ。

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キヤノン工事：大光社長ら脱税容疑で逮捕　東京地検特捜部

　キヤノンの工場建設を巡るコンサルタント会社「大光」（大分市）グループの脱税事件で、東京地検特捜部は１０日、一連の脱税工作を主導したとされる同社社長、大賀規久容疑者（６５）や元大分県議会議長、長田助勝容疑者（８０）ら７人を法人税法違反容疑で逮捕した。特捜部は今後、東京国税局と合同で関係先を捜索し、大型民間プロジェクトを舞台にした巨額脱税事件の全容解明を進める。

　大賀容疑者の兄はキヤノンの御手洗冨士夫会長と高校の同級生。大賀容疑者は御手洗会長との関係を背景に、キヤノン発注工事の業者選定などに影響力を行使していたとされる。

　逮捕容疑によると、大賀容疑者らは大光グループの建設関連会社「ライトブラック」（大分市）の売り上げの一部を除外するなどの方法で、０６年５月期までの２事業年度の法人所得約９億７６００万円を隠し、法人税約２億９２００万円を免れたとしている。大賀容疑者は同社の社長を兼務。０７年まで県議を７期務めた長田容疑者は同社の監査役や大光の取締役を務めていた。

　特捜部は９日、脱税工作に協力したとして大阪市のコンサルタント会社社長、難波英雄容疑者（６１）ら５人を逮捕しており、逮捕者は１２人になった。大賀容疑者は容疑を否認しているとみられる。

　捜査関係者によると、大賀容疑者が経営する大光、ライトブラック、匠（たくみ）（東京都千代田区）の３社は、「大分キヤノン」工場の造成・建設など４事業（受注総額約８２４億円）を受注した大手ゼネコン「鹿島」（東京都港区）や下請けの「九電工」（福岡市）などから受け取った資金を隠した疑いがもたれ、総額は逮捕容疑も含めて三十数億円に上るとされる。その内訳は正規のコンサルタント料が十数億円、裏金が約７億円で、ほかに難波容疑者のグループなど他企業側からも資金が提供されたとみられる。

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Russia’s MiG-35 fighter to win billion-dollar contract and leave US rivals behind
10.02.2009 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/107084-russia_mig_35-0

Russia is prepared to fight for the highly lucrative arms market of India. Delhi will assign $35 billion for the five-year program to completely rearm the national armed forces. A third of this amount falls for aviation. About $10.4 billion is to be spent on purchasing 126 up-to-date fighter jets. Several other billion dollars will be used to acquire 197 light helicopters.

India has become one of the largest arms importers during the recent years due to the nation’s complicated relations with Pakistan. A third Indo-Pakistan war may break out at any moment. Foreign companies get ready to fight for the Indian billions. France’s Rafale, Europe’s Eurofighter, Sweden’s Gripen and USA’s F-16 and F-18 will be a serious competition for Russia.

Russia’s Sukhoi already conducts cooperation with India : the nation launched the licensed production of Su-30MKI fighters in 2004. However, Russia has another trump card to win a possible contract – the MiG-35 fighter, which will be unveiled at Aero India 2009 air show.

MiG-35 is outfitted with aviation electronics of new generation, including a powerful radar. The aircraft also has optoelectronic systems to fight air and ground targets, a powerful defense complex and latest airborne weapons.

“MiG-35 is virtually a new modification of the old fighter, but it is quite competitive. Its low price and technical advantages leave Western rivals behind,” Konstantin Sivkov of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems told Pravda.ru. “It would also be better for India to buy this fighter for compatibility reasons. The political aspect and the foreign orientation of the political leadership play the most important role on the market of arms. The future tender will test the political orientation of India ,” the expert said.

Russia has all chances to sign the contract with India at this point. The two countries have been maintaining friendly relations with each other for many years. One should not forget the ties between Russia’s MiG Corporation and its Indian partners either. MiG fighters originally appeared in India in 1963, whereas MiG-21 used to be the basic aircraft of the Indian Air Force for years.

The cooperation continues today as well. India’s navy receives the MiG-29K/KUB carrier fighter on a regular basis. The personnel of the Indian Air Force undergoes the technical training in Russia . To crown it all, MiG modernizes India’s MiG fighters and supplies them with necessary spare parts.

However, it does not guarantee Russia’s success at the air show. Anatoly Tsyganok of the Institute for Military and Political Analysis told Pravda.ru that Russia would have to work hard to win the tender. “The USA and France will be Russia ’s major competitors at this point – Delhi has arms contracts with them too. I would also like to say that Barack Obama views India as one of the top priorities of the US foreign politics,” the expert added.

Russia has had troubles with the execution of its arms contracts with India. The recent scandal with the delivery of MiG-29 fighters to Algeria may come to surface here again. An additional point is that India (as well as China ) tries to acquire licenses to be able to launch its own arms production.

Other experts say that MiG-35 is just another modification of MiG-29 fighter, while India wants to receive the fifth-generation fighter jet.

The agreement for the production of the fifth-generation fighter jet was signed in October 2007. About 18 months were wasted on bureaucratic red-tape, and the contract for the mutual development and production of the new fighter jet was signed in December 2008.

Sergei Balmasov

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Euro may collapse to dollar’s laughter
09.02.2009 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/europe/107078-euro-0

The future of the European currency is challenged. The euro, which appeared as a result of the political decision, has only several years left to live. Many European officials believe that the continent needs to return to national currencies against the background of the ongoing economic crisis. However, the euro may collapse for economic reasons too, no matter how strange it may seem to sound nowadays.

Jim Rogers, the president of Rogers Holdings, stated two months ago that the euro would last for 15 or 20 years. He emphasized that no other currency similar to that of the European Union had ever had a significant life expectancy. The governments of many European countries, Rogers said, blame the euro for many financial problems that they have to face at the moment.

The governments of the EU member-countries will either decide to pull out from the euro zone or will ask for abatements from Brussels, he added. It is worthy of note that Rogers already predicted Russia’s collapse into several independent states.

Nobel Prize winner, a professor with the University of Chicago, Milton Friedman, sticks to the same opinion. He also believes that the joint European currency will become history in 5-15 years. Such large European countries as Germany, France and Italy will soon find that the creation of the euro zone was a mistake, Friedman believes. There are considerable political discrepancies inside this zone, which will eventually result in the collapse of the system. The only thing that can save the system is the creation of the unified state between the United States and Europe, the economist believes.

The establishment of the joint European state against the background of unsuccessful attempts to ratify the European Constitution seems to be absolutely unreal. Weak members of the euro zone will inevitably pull the leaders to the bottom.

The current economic crisis has weakened the European currency against its major rival, the US dollar, which has not died contrary to all forecasts. The dollar has gained 24 percent against the euro since the middle of 2008. Euro lost 4.4 percent of its value during 2008 and then became 8.4 percent cheaper in January 2009.

George Soros said during the recent forum in Davos that the euro may not survive the current crisis if the EU does not take adequate measures to relieve European banks of toxic assets. The EU does not even think about establishing a bad bank. Quite on the contrary, European banks continue to conceal the information about their problems, which may lead to unpredictable consequences in the future. The European Central Bank, which is responsible for the euro zone, is a supernational structure, which makes only recommendatory decisions.

Lyubov Lulko

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Russia to build most expensive gas project in history
09.02.2009 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/economics/107079-russia_gas_project-0

Russia’s natural gas giant Gazprom plans to launch its most expensive project ever against the background of the disastrous downfall of its profit. The South Stream pipeline will connect Russia with South Europe along the bottom of the Black Sea by 2015. Plunging oil prices will cut the profits of the state-run monopoly by $19-26 billion, whereas the cost of the new pipeline is evaluated at 24 billion euros. It would be possible to avoid this spending if Gazprom continued its gas transit via the territory of Ukraine. Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko already said that Russia has only one goal with its new project – to get under Ukraine’s skin. This does not seem to be likely for it is a highly expensive initiative for Russia.

Experts say that the construction of the new pipeline will cost Gazprom too much under the conditions of the current economic crisis. Gazprom may suffer losses already during the fourth quarter of the current year. The losses of the natural gas giant will cause a serious damage to Russia’s budget too.

Gazprom made the first official publication of its export reduction forecasts in 2009. The export earnings of the corporation may drop by $18-25 billion this year due to low oil prices. However, Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of Gazprom’s administration, said at a recent meeting with investors that the project was evaluated at 19-24 billion euros. Not less than four billion of the amount will be used for the construction of the underwater part of the pipeline. About 20 billion euros will be used for the surface part of the system stretching from Bulgaria to Austria (1,300 kilometers) and to the Adriatic coast of Greece (990 km).

The final cost and the extension of the pipeline will depend on the final route. The shortest one of them runs along the shelf of Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria. The second one passes Romania by. Other two variants stipulate the pipeline construction along the shelf of Russia, Turkey and Bulgaria.

Russia has already signed intergovernmental agreements with Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and Greece. Gazprom will only have to coordinate its documents with Slovenia and Austria.

Gazprom officials previously said that South Stream would be capable of transporting 31 billion cubic meters of gas a year. However, Alexander Medeved stated last week that it would be able to carry up to 47 billion cubic meters. South Stream and Nord Stream would thus transport 304 billion cubic meters of gas a year once the two systems are complete in or around 2015. At the same time, the export of the Russian gas to Europe will not exceed 220 billion cubic meters a year. In other words, South Stream will snatch Ukraine’s transit volumes.

Source: agencies

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新車販売で中国が初の世界一、米国不振で上回る

　【北京＝寺村暁人】中国国営の新華社電によると、中国汽車工業協会は１０日、１月の中国の新車販売台数が７３万５５００台となり、単月の販売台数で初めて米国を上回り世界一となったと発表した。

　１月の販売台数は、前年同月比では約１４％減と、昨年秋以来の減少傾向は続いている。ただ、米国が１月に３７・１％減の６５万台と大幅に落ち込んだため、中国が上回った。

　中国の業界関係者の間では「客足も戻りつつあり、通年でも米国を上回る可能性がある」（日系メーカー）という見方も出ている。