View of the Day: Axel Merk, Merk Investments
Published: March 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:00
The Norwegian krone might become the new Swiss franc as investors seek a haven from the turmoil engulfing the global economy, says Axel Merk of Merk Investments.
He says: "The world's a mess and in our eyes policymakers are inadvertently doing their best to worsen a bad situation. We are in a period where a depression, if not a long and drawn-out recession, is a very realistic probability. Where can investors hide?"
He believes recent actions by the Swiss National Bank have diluted the franc's status as a haven currency.
"Investors put their money in Switzerland because of its safe haven appeal," he says.
"Now, the SNB intervenes in the currency markets to erode trust in the franc. The SNB is also more vulnerable as it engages in unconventional policies, from swap lines for eastern Europe to the issuance of US dollar-denominated Swiss Treasury bills."
Mr Merk thinks that Norway may replace Switzerland as the place to take refuge in Europe.
"Norway is a surplus country - an enviable position to be in should we face an extended depression - and it can afford to get through this crisis.
"The krone is not particularly 'sexy'; if the markets recover, risk-friendly money may move towards other currencies again.
"However, in our assessment, the Norwegian krone may be the most appropriate depression trade."
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Foreign investors slash US holdings
By Michael Mackenzie in New York
Published: March 17 2009 02:59 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:59
Foreign investors cut their holdings of US long-term securities in January although China and Japan purchased more Treasury bonds, according to data released by the Treasury on Monday.
The latest Treasury International Capital report, known as Tic, revealed net sales of $43bn in long-term US securities in January, following purchases of $34.7bn in December.
US residents purchased a net $24.2bn of foreign securities, the first net buying since last June as repatriation flows halted.
Foreign net purchases of US Treasury notes and bonds totalled $10.7bn in January, down from net purchases of $15bn in December.
While private foreign investors bought a net $12.7bn in Treasury notes and bonds, official institutions sold a net $1.9bn as Treasury yields rose sharply in January from record lows.
China at $739.6bn, up from $727.4bn, and Japan at $643.8bn, up from $626bn, remained the largest foreign holders of Treasury debt in January.
“Countries far more important to the ultimate direction of interest rates were net buyers of Treasuries in January,” said Tony Crescenzi, strategist at Miller Tabak.
Selling was widespread across other fixed-income asset classes.
Foreign investors sold a net $22.5bn of agency debt, issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which was less than the $37.4bn in sales during December.
Net foreign sales of corporate bonds in January reached $8.4bn after the purchase of $41bn in December.
Net foreign purchases of US equities fell to $1.4bn, down from $3.9bn of purchases in December.
A key measure of net foreign capital outflow for the US, “monthly Tic flows” was a record negative $148.9bn in January after an inflow of $86.2bn in December.
The big reversal in January was not accompanied by a drop in the dollar. The dollar index rallied nearly 6 per cent in the month, marked by a notable decline in the euro.
Alan Ruskin, strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital, said: “Sizeable net long-term outflows, with very weak net short-term inflows would normally smack of dollar weakness.” One way to explain the dollar’s strength in January may be the role played by dollar swap lines set up by the Federal Reserve. In January, the Fed’s balance sheet showed a contraction of $115bn in dollar swap lines with other central banks.
Traders said this may explain how the drop in net dollar liabilities had not unsettled the dollar.
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Japan - Reliance on trade surpluses reveals risks
By Mure Dickie and Robin Harding in Tokyo
Published: March 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:00
Kaoru Yosano, Japan's finance minister, dismisses the suggestion that his country deserves criticism forstructural trade surpluses, which some economists blame for contributing to the global economic crisis.
"We exported meaningful goods. We exported capital which was required by the market," Mr Yosano said in an interview with the Financial Times last week.
Beyond issues of blame, however, there is no doubt that the international slump has exposed the risks to Japan of its long-standing dependence on surpluses for growth. Just as net exports drove the record long, though anaemic, period of growth that ended last year, collapsing demand has left the economy floundering.
Falling exports were the main cause of the 3.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter decline in Japan's gross domestic product at the end of last year. And exports fell 46 per cent year on year in January, helping to produce the first current account deficit since 1996.
For critics of Japan's longstanding role alongside Germany and China as exporter and creditor - seen as enabling or even forcing over-borrowing in financial crisis-hit countries - the deficit is at least a hint of the unwinding of past imbalances.
It has underscored the need for Japan to find sources of growth at home. "What we have to think about is how to stimulate . . . domestic demand," said Mr Yosano.
To do so, he said Taro Aso, Japan's prime minister, would unveil an important fiscal stimulus package.
With Japan's mature economy, impressive infrastructure and ageing population, promoting domestic demand is no easy matter, however.
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Australia to slash quota of skilled migrants
By Serena Tarling and David Fickling in London
Published: March 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:00
Australia is set to cut back on its quota of skilled migrants by 14 per cent in an effort to safeguard jobs for Australians - the first such move in 10 years.
The federal government plan will cut the quota for the year to the end of June from 133,500 to 115,000, following news that the unemployment rate increased to 5.2 per cent in February from 4.8 per cent in January.
"Clearly, the economic circumstances in Australia have changed as a result of the global financial crisis so it is prudent to reduce this year's migration intake," said Chris Evans, immigration minister.
The centre-left government of Kevin Rudd, the prime minister, expects unemployment to reach 7 per cent by mid-2010.
Record migration into a fast-shrinking job market have been a charged issue in recent years. The Labor government has increased the intake twice since it came to power in 2007.
Mr Evans later told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that the cut would be temporary and the intake would be increased once conditions improved.
Under the new quota, the permanent skilled migration programme will bar entry to bricklayers, plumbers, carpenters and electricians. "That's where we've seen a drop-off in demand [and] some major redundancies," Mr Evans said.
John Sutton, national secretary for Australia's Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union, backed the move. "The temporary migration programme is not adjusting properly, given the size of the downturn, and should be halted," he said.
Richard Gregan of Overseas Emigration Visas in London said applications for Australian visas had tripled at the start of January as UK workers, hit by the loss of 100,000 building jobs last year, considered options overseas. "They're not building here so there's more of these people wandering around looking for work and saying 'I wonder if Australia is going to be any better?' "
Skills that remain in demand will mainly be in the health, medical, engineering and information technology professions.
"The overwhelming message from business and industry is that Australia still needs to maintain a skilled migration programme but one that is more targeted,'' Mr Evans said.
The move comes after the economy contracted in February for the first time in eight years. The government said the economy shrank by 0.5 per cent from the third quarter. Year on year, the economy grew by 0.3 per cent, the slowest pace since 1991.
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US clears record $2.1bn arms sale to India
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama’s administration has cleared a $2.1 billion sale to India of eight Boeing Co P-8I maritime patrol aircraft, the largest U.S. arms transfer to India to date.
The State Department said in a March 12 notice to the U.S. Congress that it would license the direct commercial sale having factored in ”political, military, economic, human rights and arms control considerations.”
The Indian navy was the first international customer for the P-8, a long-range maritime reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft.
Boeing says it can operate effectively over land or water while performing anti-submarine warfare; search and rescue; maritime interdiction; and long-range intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance.
India chose it over several rivals, including EADS Airbus A319, according to Flightglobal.com, an online aviation-trade publication.
Boeing has said it would deliver the first P-8I within 48 months of a contract signing, and the remaining seven by 2015. Derived from Boeing’s commercial 737 airframe, it is similar to the P-8A Poseidon that Boeing is developing for the U.S. Navy.
In January 2008, Washington and New Delhi sealed India’s previous largest U.S. arms purchase -- six Lockheed Martin Corp C-130J Super Hercules military transport planes valued at about $1 billion, including related gear, training and spares.
Boeing’s P-8I contract is with the Indian Ministry of Defense. The sale includes associated support equipment, spares, training and logistical support through June 2019, the State Department said in its notice.
It said direct arms-trade ”offsets” were expected to include engineering service, manufacturing and integrated logistics-support projects totaling $641.3 million.
Lockheed and Boeing, respectively the Pentagon’s No. 1 and No. 2 suppliers by sales, are among warplane makers vying to sell India 126 new multi-role fighters in a deal that could be worth more than $10 billion.
Boeing is offering its F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet. Lockheed is pitching its F-16. They are competing with warplanes built in Russia, France, Sweden and by a European consortium.
One stumbling block for Boeing and Lockheed has been Indian qualms about standard ”end-user” pacts designed to prevent leakage of sensitive U.S. technology to third countries. Such agreements are a routine part of U.S. government-to-government arms sale.
A similar form, known as DSP-83, had to be signed by Indian authorities for Boeing to have submitted its license request for the P-8I deal.
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Family fingers burnt by move to risky assets
By Robin Wigglesworth
Published: March 16 2009 17:25 | Last updated: March 16 2009 17:25
They are secretive, opaque and often hugely wealthy. But unlike sovereign wealth funds, the Gulf’s family-owned businesses rarely make the headlines.
Their aversion to publicity is unsurprising. After half a decade of breakneck regional growth, the patriarchs of the large merchant families from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are among the richest individuals in the world.
Many family groups started out as pearl traders, shopkeepers or merchants, and most remain true to their roots, preferring tangible, traditional industries such as manufacturing, construction and retailing to financial services or technology sectors, according to bankers and experts.
The conservative nature of Gulf families has often acted as a bulwark against petroleum-driven boom and bust cycles, helping some families thrive over generations and across industries.
However, while many will prosper amid the credit crunch, some are likely to be facing severe stresses and may see their empires partially dissolve after borrowing money to invest heavily in financial assets.
Encouraged by sprawling but cash-generative business empires and a deluge of petrodollars, groups have often set up family offices to act as holding companies and in-house asset management teams.
Over the years, family offices have become increasingly sophisticated, morphing into institutions with clearly defined asset allocation policies akin to universities and other long-term investors, says Michael Samaha, managing director of business development at Morgan Stanley in Dubai.
“It’s more of a foundation model with a lot of money in alternative assets and local investments,” he says.
Jeffrey Culpepper, regional head of investment banking at Credit Suisse, says: “Every family office is like a small sovereign wealth fund, investing for future generations. Their investment behaviour is conservative and they don’t like risk. Most of their wealth is in manufacturing – not collateralised debt obligations.”
While manufacturing and other traditional industries may still dominate portfolios, much of the cash generated has been invested in real estate and private equity, experts say.
And, encouraged by regular visits from investment bankers and asset managers, families have also invested in riskier, more complex assets, such as hedge funds and derivatives, says Sultan Al Qassemi, chairman of Barjeel Securities.
“When the elders are still at the helm, family groups tend to be more conservative, but if the family is headed by a relatively younger man it can easily get seduced by the glamour of the international banks and sophisticated finance,” says Mr Qassemi.
Roberta Gamba, head of European, Middle Eastern and African portfolio construction at JPMorgan Private Bank, says family offices have now typically invested about half their capital in alternative assets such as hedge funds, private equity and real estate, with the bulk of it in hedge funds.
The potential of these alternative assets has been made more risky by the increased use of leverage, bankers say. While far from heavily geared compared with international norms, some families have become “great borrowers” and have typically financed half of their investments with debt, says a local private banker.
The plummeting value of investments in both international and local securities has revealed stresses at some conglomerates and groups in the Gulf. “There are a few families that have gotten into trouble due to their leveraged investment portfolio,” says Ms Gamba.
This will lead to distressed sales, according to an investment banker. “Some family groups are approaching private equity funds about business divestments now.”
While experts say immediate fire sales of assets are unlikely soon due to the patience of local banks – often family-controlled themselves – that have done most of the lending, the stresses could reshape the Gulf’s corporate structure.
Family groups “are using the credit crunch as an opportunity to take a hard look at the business they have inherited from their fathers. But, like in many families, there is often a lot of politics,” says a private banker.
Family groups will start to consolidate and restructure “once they realise that the recovery will take time, and [they] need to realise cash to support their core businesses,” says Mr Youssef. “I know many families in the Gulf are reappraising.”
Many businesses are cash-rich and still enjoy healthy revenue streams due to the solidity of previously staid businesses such as fast-food franchises or factories. Local banks in particular will continue to work with them and help them weather the storm, says Mr Youssef.
Even if some are faced with more serious problems, governments are likely to ensure surreptitiously that no family fails, says Mr Qassimi. “They employ thousands of people, and a collapse of a major family group would be a disaster.”
To do so would be wise, one senior regional banker argues. “The drivers of the Gulf economies are the families – not the governments. They are the bedrock that underpin the economies, particularly the private sector.”
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Good times end for Dubai's expats
By Simeon Kerr
Published: March 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:00
Dubai's Hot 100 party last month was a reminder of the city's high-rolling times before the credit crunch. The annual celebration, laid on by a magazine profiling the United Arab Emirates' smart set, drew a crowd of boldfaced names: Thaksin Shinawatra, former Thai prime minister, mingled with developer Sulaiman al-Fahim, who brokered the sale of Manchester City football club to an Abu Dhabi sheikh.
But among the employees of ITP, the magazine's publisher, the free drinks were going down with more than the usual gusto. That week ITP cut its staff by about 10 per cent. "People knew the sackings were coming, and sure enough it was rough," says one of those axed.
For thousands of expatriates lured to Dubai by the promise of year-round sunshine and a tax-free lifestyle, the party is over. Corporate restructurings have arrived hard on the heels of steep falls in property prices and plummeting consumer confidence; El Dorado is fading back into desert. As the cutbacks spread from finance and real estate to sectors such as tourism, media and retail, many are packing up and heading home.
Dubai's roads and restaurants are noticeably quieter and onceexorbitant rents are becoming more reasonable by the month. The government claims visa issuance is holding up and denies reports of mass cancellations. But a YouGov poll in the UAE found more than half of respondents knew a family member or close friend who had been made redundant, a figure that had risen sharply from the end of 2008.
At Dubai's highest-profile investment company, Dubai International Capital, for example, staff are in flux as its parent company, owned by the ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, merges back-office functions with another of his investment vehicles. "It's a nightmare," says one. "We go into the office unsure if we will have a job at the end of the day."
The end of this month is expected to accelerate the departures among two of the largest white-collar expat communities, Britons and Indians, as it signals the end of the Indian school year and British schools' spring term. Many employers have aided sacked staff, especially those with children, by extending visas so they do not have to leave quickly. Britons have also been wary of tax liabilities caused by returning before April 1, the new UK tax year.
In a labour market that remains underdeveloped by western standards, lawyers and recruiters are preparing for a rising volume of complaints as foreigners fight for severance pay while the government of the UAE reiterates its ban on private-sector employers making making locals redundant. The job losses already announced and others still to come are seen as a big test of employment laws in a territory that has never known widespread hardship.
One difficulty, according to a western lawyer at a large Dubai business, is that there is "no real legal concept of redundancy" and no obligation on companies beyond paying staff their notice and modest severance pay.
The expat rumour mill, which has gone into overdrive since the economic crisis struck in October, talks in dark tones about companies letting whole departments go at a stroke or shedding small groups of employees every week to minimise bad publicity.
A further complication is the pressure a slew of employment disputes could put on both the local courts and the special court for the Dubai International Financial Centre, where many multinationals are based. The centre's court - which has an international panel of top commercial judges - is embroiled in a number of time-consuming employment cases, some on appeal from a small claims tribunal.
In one such appeal in January, a former finance executive was fighting his ex-employer over just Dh25,209 (£4,825) of disputed severance pay. Mark Beer, DIFC court registrar, insists the court can handle the workload but admits he hopes the "vast majority" of disputes will be resolved before reaching that stage.
Many more disputes are expected, especially involving western expatriates who took high-paying jobs in Dubai when demand was high but now find their positions under threat.
As the Dubai International Finance Centre blossomed from 2005, hundreds of companies used it as a regional launch pad and went on a hiring spree, scooping up experienced and novice bankers alike. But regional equity markets have fallen with the oil price, corporate finance and debt are dormant, and restructuring work has proved more modest than bankers hoped. Now, at both international names such as Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse and local powerhouses such as Shuaa Capital and Mashreq, headcounts are dropping.
"During the speculative boom, a lot of people who were wholly unemployable in London found their way out here. And they have been found wanting," says one recruitment consultant.
At Dubai Properties, a large developer owned by the ruler Sheikh Mohammed, a handful of employees are in dispute with the company after they were asked to leave without severance pay late last year. The company, which is about to hand over another major residential complex in Business Bay, says those affected have been well looked after, and offered extended residence visas so they can seek other jobs and avoid disrupting their children's education.
The ex-employees, who want to remain anonymous as some have yet to settle with the company, say their legal advice is that any employee facing "arbitrary dismissal not linked to performance", such as redundancy, is entitled to between one and three months of severance pay, on top of any salary covering their notice periods. But they see little point in pursuing legal action over the relatively modest sums involved.
Not all those made redundant are heading home. According to Peter Henry, a Dubai-based partner for headhunters Whitehead Mann, opportunities remain elsewhere in the region, especially in the risk functions of banks and conglomerates.
"If you look beyond Dubai, it is more positive: Abu Dhabi, Doha and to a certain extent in Bahrain," he says. "Saudi is also a very active market, where they are expanding businesses and international joint ventures are going ahead and we see a need for senior talent." Nevertheless, Dubai's lifestyle continues to make it the most attractive Gulf posting.
Others are prepared to wait for things to improve. Last year, Dubai hired Richard Attias, husband of Nicholas Sarkozy's ex-wife Cecilia, to promote the city through an events company focusing on sports and culture. But corporate sponsorship evaporated, leaving the former Publicis executive an obvious target for the ongoing cost-cutting regime across Dubai Inc. His role was reduced from chief executive to adviser on a couple of low-key events. Nevertheless, Mr Attias says: "I reactivated my consultancy and put the headquarters in Dubai. I am very confident that the region and Dubai will soon be back on the front page,"
More fortunate still is Andy Blair, a construction project manager who achieved overnight fame when he scrawled his telephone number on his Porsche after being made redundant in January. Intense media interest - not to mention the wide dissemination of his contact details - allowed him to avoid the well-trodden path to Abu Dhabi or across the Gulf to Qatar. He has landed a job with a food and beverage consultancy. "People were talking about Doha or Bahrain but I'd rather poke my eyes out," says the 28-year-old Scot. Additional reporting by Michael Peel
'No taboos': emirate gets to work on boosting the labour market
The Dubai government is aiming for 3 per cent growth in the labour market this year, in spite of tough conditions, says Raed Safadi, chief economist at the city-state's department of economic development.
Previous labour force growth of more than 20 per cent will not happen this year, he says, but government reforms and the stimulus from a $10bn loan from the UAE will lead to a yearly net addition in the number of workers.
"If we manage that, we will have sheltered Dubai," he said at a conference yesterday. "So there are no taboos: we will look at every option available as we encourage the labour market."
In spite of assurances that as many as 1,000 new visas are being issued a day, the government is reviewing rules that force people to leave the country only 30 days after losing a residence visa and bans on some workers moving to competitors in the event of them losing their jobs.
The economic department is also considering support for the smaller businesses that Mr Safadi says employ up to 80 per cent of people in the private sector.
The government continues to target a real growth rate of 2.5 per cent this year, a fraction of the 15 per cent achieved during the six-year petrodollar boom.
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Abu Dhabi has not sought Dubai stakes
By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi
Published: March 16 2009 12:29 | Last updated: March 16 2009 12:29
Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, has not sought to take stakes in companies owned by neighbouring Dubai in return for providing financial help, the country’s ruler said.
Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed al Nahyan, the ruler of Abu Dhabi and the UAE, was quoted by the Abu Dhabi-based Alrroya newspaper on Monday as saying that there had been “misrepresentations of the relationship between emirates. We are members in one entity and parts in one strong, coherent body.”
The UAE central bank last month lent struggling Dubai $10bn to help with the emirate’s looming international debt repayments, as part of a $20bn bond programme launched by Dubai.
The loan, in effect a bail-out by wealthy and oil-rich Abu Dhabi, came after months of speculation that the capital wanted positions in some of Dubai’s flagship government companies such as Emirates Airways in return for a financial lifeline.
While Sheikh Khalifa acknowledged that the UAE was one of the “victims” of the financial crisis, he said that the country would be able to withstand the deteriorating economic circumstances due to the support of the federal government.
”Our national institutions will be able to counter any temporary burdens resulting from the global financial crisis, thanks to their accumulated experience, respect and credibility in the markets they operate in as well as to the keen interest of the government in providing support to them to counter such burdens,” Sheikh Khalifa said.
The UAE ruler added that the country was working with the five other main Gulf states – collectively known as the Gulf Cooperation Council countries – on “shaping a collective position on the crisis.”
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Syria suffers as economy dries up
By Ferry Biedermann
Published: March 16 2009 17:01 | Last updated: March 16 2009 17:01
It may have opened a stock market and its banking sector may have limited exposure to the international financial meltdown, but Syria is not having an easy time of it this year.
Mohammed Al-Hussein, Syria’s finance minister, said at the weekend that the country’s banks were secure but that the industrial, transport and tourism sectors would be affected. He warned last month that 2009 was likely to be a “difficult” year for the economy.
Oil exports, the main source of foreign currency, are declining rapidly. Samir Seifan, an independent economist in Damascus, says production is now about on a par with consumption and Syria is likely to become a net importer of oil at some point this year.
Lower oil prices will not have a significant effect on Syria or may even be helpful if they persist, says Mr Seifan. “The production coming down is a problem – the prices coming down is not.”
Syria, one of the Middle East’s few wheat-exporting countries, is also facing a second drought in two years.
Agriculture accounts for some 20 per cent of gross domestic product, although this has been declining steadily, and directly employs 19 per cent of the workforce, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation. Abdallah Bin Yehia, the FAO’s representative in Damascus, warns that the rains so far have been better than last year but are still far below average.
The drought has affected 150,000 farmers who depend on rain-fed agriculture in the north and east of the country. In the west, closer to the Mediterranean, where many use irrigation to water crops, rainfall has been sufficient.
“The requirements to support the people affected by the drought are beyond the country’s capacity,” says Mr Bin Yehia. He adds that the government last year did what it could but that an international emergency appeal launched by the United Nations fell short of what was needed.
The FAO was able to supply seed only for 10,000 people to plant this season.
“Even under the best-case scenario, the crops will be well below average, and the farmers in the rain-fed areas will need significant assistance because this is the third year that the crops are likely to be below average,” says Mr Bin Yehia.
The FAO will do a survey in the middle of next month, by which time the rainfall pattern will be clearer. In the meantime, it will concentrate on the effects on livestock herders. Herds are in danger of being destroyed because of the drought, which constricts feed supplies and forces herders to sell their flocks at low prices, Mr Bin Yahia says.
The agriculture crisis and falling oil revenues have hit Syria as President Bashar al-Assad’s regime is struggling to forge ahead with its transformation from a centrally planned, command economy to a “social market economy”. Syria opened its first stock exchange this month – albeit with only one stock listed.
The effects of the global economic crisis will be felt eventually, says Mr Seifan. Syria received only $700m in foreign direct investment last year but is unlikely to match that total in 2009.
Moreover, Syrian workers in the Gulf are likely to send less cash back to their families. And a possible return of some of the more than 500,000 workers who are employed there if jobs dry up could cause real problems for the economy. “We expect that some of them will come back. If it is 10 per cent, it’s big,” says Mr Seifan.
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West can gain from dialogue with Hizbollah
By Roula Khalaf
Published: March 16 2009 16:42 | Last updated: March 16 2009 16:42
To the delight of many in the Middle East, the Obama administration has stressed the importance of dialogue, indicating a major shift from the Bush White House years. But why then did the US signal its disapproval when Britain decided this month to engage in direct contact with Lebanon’s Hizbollah?
Soon after a UK foreign office minister announced the move, noting that the Shia group is a partner in the Beirut government of national unity and that Britain would press it to disband its armed wing, a senior US official made it clear there had been no consultation with Washington.
Britain had only told the “previous administration” of its decision, the official complained, and questioned London’s assertion that contacts would be held only with Hizbollah’s political wing.
The US, he said, saw no difference between the group’s political, military and social wings. The White House later spelt out that organisations such as Hizbollah and Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip, must renounce violence and recognise Israel before they become acceptable interlocutors.
The irony was that while it was reprimanding its closest ally, the US was sending two senior officials to Damascus, highlighting its intention to engage with its foes. Syria is one of the main backers of Hizbollah. Iran, with which the Obama administration is also hoping to engage, is another.
Hizbollah represents a particularly tricky problem for Washington: the US blames it for the 1983 bombings in Beirut that killed 241 US marines and considers it a leading terrorist group. But the US attitude raises a broader issue: should it promote dialogue with sponsors of radical groups while continuing to isolate the militants themselves?
True, there are arguments for continued isolation. Part of the US’s aim in talks with Syria (and with Iran) is to persuade them to stop supporting militants or at least put pressure on the groups to give up their weapons. Contact with the organisations themselves, however, could lend them international legitimacy and weaken their domestic pro-western rivals.
Timing is also important. Lebanon is set to hold elections in June, in which Hizbollah and its allies are hoping to win control of parliament from the current pro-western majority. The race is tight, and any move that bolsters Hizbollah could undermine pro-western forces running on a platform that calls for disarming the movement and ending its state within a state.
Similar considerations apply in the case of Hamas. There too, the US has been trying to strengthen the Palestinian Authority by encouraging international support and providing funding. The PA has few gains to point to when it goes to the polls, except that it can claim a host of international friends while Hamas has virtually none.
But the arguments in favour of dialogue are still more compelling. Whether we like it or not, Hizbollah and Hamas are part of the fabric of Lebanese and Palestinian society. They are political parties, even if they also have militant wings and are bent on fighting Israel. They have won support through the ballot box.
Surely, there is benefit in a dialogue that directly puts forward western concerns. Shunning the elected officials of Hizbollah and Hamas, moreover, does not undermine them – their authority is derived primarily from popular support. Isolation also leaves their supporters convinced that the US and its allies have no respect for democracy unless it produces results that please them.
Hizbollah may hold up the British willingness to engage with it as a victory of sorts. But this will not change the UK position, which favours Hizbollah’s disarmament. Engagement also undercuts Hizbollah’s loud claims that the parliamentary majority’s regular contacts with western embassies mean its politicians take instructions from abroad.
Perhaps the British decision on discussions with Hizbollah could have been better timed. But it should encourage, rather than irritate, Washington.
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Beijing to boost spending in Africa fund
By Tom Burgis in Johannesburg
Published: March 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:00
China is to pump a further $2bn into its African investment fund earlier than planned to snap up opportunities left by the hasty retreat of western investors from the continent.
Since its launch in late 2006, the China-African Development Fund has invested $400m (€309m, £286m). It expected to have spent most of its initial capital of $1bn by the end of the year, as much as two years ahead of schedule, said Chi Jianxin, fund chief executive.
Observers of China's flourishing relationship with Africa have noted that Beijing has been known to deliver less than its prodigious promises. Indeed, anecdotal evidence suggests that recent Chinese arrivals on the continent, particularly miners, have been heading home in their droves as commodity prices plunge.
However, speaking ahead of the opening of the fund's first representative office in Johannesburg, the commercial capital of South Africa, the continent's biggest economy, Mr Chi said: "We are moving faster. Because other [investors from] markets are not coming, [African companies] need more money from us."
The fund was created following the November 2006 Africa-China summit in Beijing, a landmark in China's burgeoning political and economic relationship with a continent that is replete with the minerals it has needed to fuel its growth.
It receives all its capital from the China Development Bank, which had 2,261bn renminbi in assets at the end of 2007 and which is directly controlled by the State Council, China's highest decision-making body.
A prospectus lists initial investments in agriculture ventures in Ethiopia, Malawi and Mozambique; a share of a $450m power station in Ghana; and Egyptian, Nigerian and Mauritian industrial zones, among other projects. Mr Chi added that the fund had also invested in Zimbabwe. The fund says the $400m it has spent so far "will drive Chinese enterprises to make investments of more than $2bn".
From next year it would embark on a second, $2bn phase of investments, accelerating towards its goal of $5bn, Mr Chi said.
Beijing's critics have attacked its willingness to invest heavily in countries with repressive regimes, citing close ties with Sudan and Zimbabwe. Its supporters accuse its western critics of hypocrisy, pointing to cosy relations between Washington and countries such as Equatorial Guinea, an oil producer with a poor human rights record.
The development fund's appetite for African assets contrasts starkly with western investors, many of whom have exited as recession struck at home. In South Africa alone, foreign investors withdrew a net R54bn ($5.4bn, €4.2bn, £3.9bn) from the stock market last year, compared with net purchases worth R63bn the previous year.
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Swiss warn lifting secrecy ‘will take time’
By Haig Simonian in Zurich
Published: March 16 2009 18:33 | Last updated: March 16 2009 18:33
Switzerland has warned countries against expecting swift results from its decision last week to water down bank secrecy laws, saying it could take years for the necessary legislation to come into action.
Hans-Rudolf Merz, Switzerland’s finance minister, said renegotiating the country’s more than 70 double taxation treaties “won’t be so fast” as each would have to be approved individually by the country’s parliament.
New treaties could be subject to referendums, he told the Financial Times in an interview, while putting in place the rules prescribed by of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development would also require negotiations and “will take time”.
The comments from Mr Merz, who is head of state under Switzerland’s rotating presidency, came as some of the countries that have pressed hard for greater international tax transparency greeted last week’s move with caution.
Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister, welcomed the move at the weekend but Peer Steinbrück, Germany’s finance minister, on Monday warned that any final judgment had to await action, not words, from Bern.
In a statement, the German finance ministry called for international pressure to be “kept high”.
Other politicians suggested Switzerland should consider legislation to allow much greater use of trusts
Mr Steinbrück’s confrontational tone prompted members of the ultraconservative Swiss People’s party (SVP) to call for retaliation against Germany. Hans Kaufmann, a member of parliament for the SVP, Switzerland’s largest political group, and a former private bank economist, called for a boycott of German cars. He also proposed German and French built jets be excluded from a big new order for the Swiss air force.
Other politicians suggested Switzerland should consider legislation to allow much greater use of trusts – a tax-efficient vehicle highly popular among wealthy taxpayers in the UK and some US states.
Trusts are restricted under Swiss law but critics of last week’s apparent “capitulation” to foreign governments said Bern should go on the offensive and propose trust legislation as a negotiating ploy in talks on new bilateral tax treaties.
Mr Merz conceded that some foreigners would now transfer funds out of Switzerland. However, he said the readiness of other offshore financial centres to make the same concessions as Switzerland meant the risk of heavy outflows for the nationally important banking sector was minimal.
While Switzerland had succumbed to pressure on easing bank secrecy, he said the full automatic exchange of tax information, as demanded by countries such as Germany, remained out of the question. Such procedures in Switzerland are widely considered an infringement of individual liberties.
Instead, Mr Merz argued that countries that had pressed so strongly for Swiss concessions on bank secrecy would have generated more income if they had accepted other changes Bern was ready to make.
He said Switzerland would have accepted extending the savings directive agreed with the European Union, under which income on certain types of assets held by non-residents is taxed at source.
Under the system, Switzerland transfers the bulk of the proceeds to the owners’ home countries, while their identities stay confidential.
Mr Merz said Switzerland would have responded favourably to proposals to close some of the biggest loopholes in the system, agreed after years of negotiations in Brussels.
“We always said we preferred savings taxation and were prepared to extend it. We were prepared to include companies, as well as individuals, and even extend the scheme to countries beyond the EU,” he said.
The mechanism has been attacked in some EU capitals as inadequate but Mr Merz stressed that it was still not fully operational.
“We knew some countries wanted to go further than the savings tax. But if they had agreed to extend it, they would have ended up receiving more money,” he said.
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Tests of maturity
Published: March 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:00
The homily on the social responsibility of business preached last Sunday by Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president, comes across as a little plaintive from a government that so recently sounded so cocksure.
He exhorted those who amassed great riches by retrieving, as it were, prize assets from the debris of communism to show their mettle and maturity, by keeping their factories humming and their payrolls full. The problem is real enough.
As job losses mount, so does the popular disgruntlement that Russia's masters are ill-equipped to absorb. Yet it is hard to know what the president's appeal - made in an interview with state-owned television - reveals about Kremlin thinking. If this is a veiled threat to overleveraged oligarchs it catches them in much reduced circumstances.
In the course of the present crisis and the sharp fall in the value of the rouble, Russia has mislaid 55 of the 87 billionaires it had a year ago, according to Forbes magazine - a massive destruction of wealth. If many keep what remains of their fortunes abroad, it is for a reason.
The politically charged cases against Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the jailed former chief of Yukos, the oil company since devoured by the state, and once Russia's richest man, or the long stand-off between BP and its local partners in TNK-BP have understandably fostered the conviction that Russian courts are tools of the Kremlin and (favoured) oligarchs. Now Russia's decade of explosive growth has fizzled, more-over, there are perfectly conventional reasons for investor caution.
The government's short-term handling of the macroeconomy has been good enough to earn Russia a breathing space. The problem has been its failure to use the oil and credit boom to diversify and lessen dependence on foreign loans, to upgrade its third-world infrastructure and mend its buckled institutions. But it has failed above all to strengthen property rights and embed the rule of law - the pledge Mr Medvedev gave to combat Russia's tradition of "legal nihilism".
Given the severity of the crisis, it seems unlikely the Kremlin power-brokers grouped around Vladimir Putin are angling to renationalise strategic chunks of the economy. They know they no longer have the resources or personnel to manage what would fall into their lap if things were to get a lot worse.
What the government can correct is the impression that there is no such thing as private property in Russia. Ultimately, that would do more for economic development than pipelines full of oil and credit. That would, to quote Mr Medvedev, be a real "test of maturity".
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Refinancing problems loom
By David Oakley
Published: March 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:00
Emerging markets need to refinance $1,440bn of debt this year in credit markets that remain difficult to access, highlighting the scale of the financing problems facing governments and companies.
The estimates by Deutsche Bank suggest emerging market companies face a testing few months rolling over loans and bonds as banks continue to restrict credit and investors buy only the best quality debt.
Dalinc Ariburnu, global head of emerging markets at Deutsche Bank, said: "We are witnessing a severe contraction in the extension of credit to emerging markets.
"We are in the midst of a significant stress test for the emerging market institutions. Those that survive the next 12 months, as I believe most will, will be in a much stronger position going forward."
Companies face the biggest difficulties because they have larger relative external debt payments in relation to the size of their balance sheets than sovereigns, which can also rely on multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund to help bail them out.
Analysts say Russian companies are some of the most exposed, with some predicting that many second-tier banks and corporates could fold in the coming months. Russian public and private institutions need to refinance $117.1bn in bank loans and bonds this year, says Deutsche.
Although the country and some of its state-supported institutions can fall back on the government's foreign currency reserves, which stand at $388.6bn, these have been depleted since summer as the price of oil has fallen and its currency has come under pressure. Russia has used $200bn since then. Central and eastern Europe also remain heavily exposed. The foreign exchange reserves of countries in these areas are smaller and provide less of a cushion than Russia's.
Ukraine's public and private institutions need to roll over $40bn in bank loans and bonds this year against foreign currency reserves of $28.8bn. Hungary has about $35bn to repay this year with foreign currency reserves of $31bn, says Deutsche.
Turkey's public and private institutions need to fund $100bn this year with reserves of only $70bn.
Asia has the highest external debt to roll over ($775bn) among EM regions, but its economies have stronger balance sheets.
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Producers forced into key asset sales
By Sheila McNulty in Houston
Published: March 16 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 16 2009 02:00
An increasing number of US natural gas producers are being forced into bankruptcy or asset sales by banks, which are using annual reviews of company debt to cut permittable levels below existing borrowings.
The credit squeeze has left producers with few choices in terms of raising new finance when confronted with repaying debt immediately, with many unwilling to tap equity markets, given the dilutive effect of issuing stock at today's low prices and the inability of finding buyers for new equity.
In addition, the severe drop in commodity prices has slashed the value of their assets. "This is forcing companies to sell assets they don't want to sell or to sell whole companies,'' said Raoul LeBlanc, senior director at PFC Energy, the consultancy.
"In some cases, the only sellable assets are vital to the company, so this effectively puts them into a death spiral.''
These forced sales will put a value on assets, which should spark consolidation, slowing drilling for new wells and leading to a production decline.
Ben Dell, senior analyst at Bernstein Research, said it was now materially cheaper to buy than to explore: "It appears the energy space is on the cusp of an M&A boom.''
In the past two weeks, there have been eight announcements of forced sales, bankruptcy filings and notices of possible filings, as banks have completed their annual reviews.
Pacific Energy Resources filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing a "drastic fall in the price of crude oil" near the end of last year.
Meanwhile, DayStar Oil & Gas is offering assets through Chapter 11 bankruptcy in south-eastern Texas.
The most recent warning came from Edge Petroleum, which told regulators on Wednesday it had a $114m borrowing base deficiency, due to a redetermination of the company's borrowing base, from $239m to $125m.
The company had agreed with Union Bank of California, as administrative agent and issuing lender, and other lenders to pay off the balance in instalments, starting March 10.
But the group was forced to obtain an extension to tomorrow and noted "there can be no assurance'' it would be able to make the payments.
Edge said there could be no assurance its efforts to find financial alternatives, such as selling some or all of the company's assets, would be successful: "If such efforts are not successful, the company may be required to seek protection under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code.''
PFC said that other producers forced into financial difficulties by bank redeterminations include Crusader, Berry Petroleum, Delta Petroleum, Hallwood Energy and Kodiak.
"The smallest players are most at risk here,'' Mr LeBlanc said. However, it is these groups that are crucial to US natural gas production - small, independent producers generate 82 per cent of natural gas with an average of 12 employees, according to the Independent Petroleum Association of Mountain States.
Mr LeBlanc sees US production falling to negative territory this year, after growing more than 6 per cent last year.
"In the short and medium term, you're wiping out a lot of activity, and acquisitions will distract companies from drilling," he said.
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Washington loses El Salvador ally as left clinches election win
By Adam Thomson in Mexico City
Published: March 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:00
A former Marxist guerrilla army turned mainstream political party has swept to power in elections in El Salvador, completing central America's leftward drift.
The result marks the first time the leftwing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front has won a presidential vote since a 1992 peace accord brought to an end 12 years of civil war that cost 75,000 lives.
The result removes central America's last openly rightwing government and Washington's most trusted ally in the region.
With 99.4 per cent of the vote counted, Mauricio Funes, FMLN candidate and a former television journalist, won the election with 51.3 per cent.
Rodrigo Avila, candidate from the incumbent conservative Arena party and Mr Funes's only rival, had 48.7 per cent.
Electoral authorities were expected to make an official announcement yesterday.
Late on Sunday night Mr Avila accepted the defeat, telling Salvadoreans: "We will be a constructive opposition, an opposition that ensures that our country does not lose its freedoms."
Throughout an aggressive campaign, Mr Avila had told Salvadoreans that a vote for Mr Funes would be a vote for Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's leftwing president - with devastating consequences for private enterprise.
In fact, most experts see Mr Funes as a moderate. "He is well-intentioned," says Michael Shifter at the Inter-American Dialogue, a think-tank in Washington.
While promising greater social spending to head off the effects of the global economic crisis and reduce terrifying levels of violence, Mr Funes has also tried to reassure private business. "There is nothing in my programme that goes against private property or business," he told foreign journalists last week.
Mr Funes has also gone to great lengths to keep the US onside, even using President Barack Obama's "yes we can" campaign slogan.
He travelled to Washington several months ago to hold meetings with Tom Shannon, at that time the US administration's highest-ranking official on Latin America.
Last week Mr Funes said he expected to maintain "a relation of understanding and mutual respect" with the US. He takes office without a legislative majority. Yet at the press conference last week, the 49-year-old dismissed the idea that it could prove difficult to form alliances.
"If we want to extract this country from crisis I understand that I have to govern closely with my own party but also with that of the other legislative groups."
Mr Funes said he would crack down on tax evasion by the rich and use the funds to create jobs for Salvadorean immigrants returning from the US. He has also promised to invest in farming to reduce dependence on imported food.
* The US government congratulated Mr Funes on his victory, saying that it wanted to work with the new government.
Robert Wood, a State Department spokesman, said the elections were "very free, fair and democratic".
"I want to specifically congratulate Mauricio Funes as the winner of the presidential election and also his opponent, Rodrigo Avila, for participating in the election and for respecting the election results," he said.
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More than 1m jobs to go in UK
By Brian Groom and Nicholas Timmins
Published: March 16 2009 23:37 | Last updated: March 16 2009 23:37
More than a million British workers will lose their jobs over the next two years as the recession takes an unexpected turn, hitting the north and Midlands as badly as the south, a leading economic forecaster has warned.
The West Midlands, Wales and the north of England could take more than a decade to recover from job losses that are forecast to rival those in London, according to Oxford Economics, the consultancy.
Click for full unemployment graphic
Fresh unemployment figures due to be published on Wednesday are expected to show a widespread rise in UK joblessness during the three months to January, taking the national total above 2m.
However, as industrial output has fallen, the rising toll of job losses has confounded forecasts that the south, where the financial services sector is concentrated, would bear the brunt of the economic downturn.
As recently as last autumn policymakers were claiming to spot two silver linings amid the gloom: a potential “rebalancing” of the economy, with more wealth generated from manufacturing and less from financial services; and a chance for lagging regions to close the gap with London and the south-east.
Industrial production, however, is falling faster than at any time since 1981, while financial services have so far escaped lightly. Unemployment has risen fastest in the West Midlands, north of England and Wales. London gained 33,000 jobs in last year’s final quarter.
The warnings come as James Purnell, the work and pensions secretary, insists in a Financial Times interview on Tuesday that people are still finding jobs.
Figures from his department show that in January this year 24,000 more people left Jobseeker’s Allowance, the main unemployment benefit, than in January last year.
The flow off the benefit – with the department convinced that the vast majority of the people found jobs – fell in only three of the Department for Work and Pensions’ 48 districts: Tees Valley; Lincolnshire and Rutland; and Birmingham and Solihull. In all other districts, the numbers leaving JSA rose.
Industrial production is falling faster than at any time since 1981, while financial services have so far escaped lightly
The pattern of job losses has forced Oxford Economics to tear up forecasts it made only a few months ago.
Last autumn it predicted a drop in output in 2009 only for London. Now it expects pain everywhere. London will still suffer the most, with a 3.4 per cent fall. But the West Midlands with a 3.3 per cent drop, Wales a 3.2 per cent decline and falls for the north-west and north-east of 3 per cent are not far behind.
The consultancy foresees 1.3m job losses from 2008 to 2010. While London and the south-east will regain pre-recession employment levels within five years, it warns that the West Midlands, north-east and Wales may not have recovered within a decade.
Experian, another forecaster, predicts declines in output this year of 4.3 per cent for London, 3.3 per cent for the north-east and 2.9 per cent for the West Midlands.
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Banks raise minimum deposits by thousands
By Elaine Moore
Published: March 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:00
Bank customers are being asked to deposit tens of thousands of pounds in order to open high street savings accounts that pay negligible rates of interest.
Banks and building societies are raising deposit requirements for savings accounts while simultaneously paying out some of the lowest interest rates in history.
Allied Irish Bank and Investec both offer accounts that pay 0.5 per cent on money held, but require a minimum deposit of £50,000 and £25,000 respectively. Chorley and District Building Society demands sums of £55,000 or more for its Silver Monthly Saver account, which pays an interest rate of 2 per cent.
Recently Abbey, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley, all providers within the Santander Group, launched a two-year bond paying out more than 4 per cent, available only to customers with £30,000.
The number of savings accounts that can be opened with just £1 has also fallen by a third, from 561 to 390, according to comparison service MoneyExpert.com.
"As interest rates have fallen banks have merged tiered accounts that paid out more to those with larger deposits," said David Black, banking consultant at Defaqto, the research firm. "As a result we see accounts that require large deposits but pay out small rates of interest."
Analysts believe banks may also be reacting to the decision by many savers to limit their savings in any one institution to the £50,000 Financial Services Compensation Scheme threshold.
As banks struggle to obtain sufficient funding from wholesale money markets, their desire to attract and retain retail deposits has grown. On average the minimum deposit required by instant access savings accounts has risen by nearly £60 to more than £1,450 in the past year.
But following successive cuts to base interest rates, returns on money deposited in cash accounts have plummeted. Over the same period interest paid on instant access accounts has fallen from 3.85 per cent to 0.82 per cent, according to Moneyfacts, the financial information site. One in five instant access accounts pays out 0.1 per cent or less to savers.
Some providers have been accused of failing savers by silently cutting rates on existing accounts while attempting to draw in new money with changeable bonus rates.
But low interest rates have not put off savers. According to Halifax, the UK's largest provider of savings, the average amount held in cash accounts continues to rise as investors swap riskier equity assets in favour of cash.
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Obama vows to fight AIG bonuses
By Andrew Ward in Washington and Greg Farrell in New York
Published: March 17 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 17 2009 02:00
Barack Obama vowed yesterday to pursue "every single legal avenue" to block $165m in bonus payments by AIG amid mounting anger over the stricken insurance group's use of federal bail-out funds.
The US president's remarks came as Andrew Cuomo, New York attorney-general, opened an investigation into the bonuses and threatened AIG with subpoenas to secure the names of employees who received the money. Mr Obama voiced "outrage" that a group dependent on federal funds for survival was topping up salaries at a time when ordinary Americans were struggling to make ends meet.
"This is a corporation that finds itself in financial distress due to recklessness and greed," he said. "Under these circumstances, it's hard to understand how derivative traders at AIG warranted any bonuses, much less $165m in extra pay."
Administration officials said the Treasury department planned to recoup the cash for taxpayers by modifying the terms of a fresh $30bn capital infusion granted to AIG earlier this month.
AIG revealed the bonuses over the weekend as part of disclosures into how it used the federal funds that saved it from collapse last year. Goldman Sachs and several European banks also faced scrutiny over billions of dollars in bail-out money that they received as counterparties to derivatives contracts and other deals with AIG.
Elijah Cummings, a Democratic congressman on the House oversight committee, yesterday threatened to open an investigation into the relationship bet-ween AIG and Goldman Sachs, which received nearly $13bn from the group. In September, Goldman confirmed AIG was a counterparty but the investment bank insisted that its exposures to AIG were almost completely hedged.
The company reiterated that stance yesterday, saying that if AIG had been allowed to fail, Goldman would have been covered by a combination of the cash collateral that it had forced AIG to post on some of the contracts, and the credit default swaps that it had entered into with other banks and insurers to guard against AIG's failure.
Barney Frank, chairman of the House financial services committee, told the Financial Times that questions would also be raised about the payments to foreign banks, including Germany's Deutsche Bank and France's Société Générale, at a hearing on AIG tomorrow. Anger at AIG's use of bail-out funds highlighted deepening hostility towards Wall Street in Washington and threatened to harden resistance against further aid for the financial sector.
Mr Obama said he had instructed Tim Geithner, Treasury secretary, to use the government's full "leverage" to halt the AIG bonuses.
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Half Of Charities 'Suffering' From Crunch
9 hours 10 mins ago
SkyNews Sky News
* Print Story
The recession is hitting charities so hard that more than half say their work is bound to suffer, a survey has found.
In a report by the Charity Commission, 52% of charities say the credit crunch has affected the work they do.
Almost two-thirds of charities with an annual income of ??1m or more also said they were concerned the downturn would have a significant impact on their work.
It is a problem that has worried charity bosses so much that a third say they've taken stepts to try to combat the impact of the ailing economy.
Around 14% of charities asked that they are reducing their costs, just over one in 10 have upped their fundraising efforts and 6% have taken to drawing on their financial reserves.
Dame Suzi Leather, chair of the Charity Commission, said: "Clearly the impact of the financial downturn on charities is widening and deepening.
"Some charities still face that double whammy of a drop in income as well as an increased demand for services.
"However, not all charities are putting measures in place to protect their work and their funds. It is very surprising that more charities are not considering collaboration with others, as this can help them share expertise and costs."
:: The survey was conducted for the Charities Commission by Carol Goldstone Associates, who questioned 1,003 charities in England and Wales during February.
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“神義”なき戦い！？ 世襲家ｖｓ神社本庁の深い対立
全国４万余りの八幡宮の総本社、宇佐神宮（大分県宇佐市）の宮司の座をめぐり、世襲してきた到津（いとうづ）家と神社本庁（東京）が対立を深めている。神社本庁が世襲家ではない大分県神社庁長の穴井伸久さん（６０）を宮司に任命した人事に、到津家側が反発、本庁に離脱届を出す騒動に発展した。
到津家は古くからの世襲家の１つで、戦後は２代にわたり宇佐神宮の宮司を継承。１９７３年から務めた到津公斉さんが体調を崩した後、２００６年には宇佐神宮と縁が深い薦（こも）神社（同県中津市）の池永公比古さんが宮司に就任した。神職になって間もない到津さんの長女、克子さん（４０）の“代役” だった。
昨年８月、池永さんが病死したため、宇佐神宮の氏子らでつくる責任役員会は、ナンバー２である権宮司の克子さんを後任として神社本庁に推薦。しかし本庁が「克子氏は神職としての経験が浅い」と認めず、宮司職はしばらく空席になった。
今年２月２６日、本庁が穴井さんを３年任期の特任宮司に任命したことに、到津家と一部の責任役員は「本庁による乗っ取りだ」と反発。同２８日、本庁に離脱届を提出した。
離脱するには代表役員（宮司）を含む責任役員会での議決が必要で、神社本庁は「代表役員からの届けではないので法的に意味がない」と一蹴。到津家側の責任役員、賀来昌義さん（７０）は「本庁の無法なやり方がまかり通ってはならない」と話し、離脱を求めて提訴も辞さない構えだ。
特任宮司に就任早々、騒動に巻き込まれた穴井さんは「皆さんが心安らかにお参りして祈りをささげる神宮で、争い事があってはならないのだが…」と困惑している。
ZAKZAK 2009/03/16
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宇佐神宮の宮司職 法廷闘争へ
[2009年03月05日 14:39]
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宮司職をめぐり、神社本庁や県神社庁側と、代々世襲してきた到津家や責任役員の一部が対立する事態となっている宇佐神宮
全国八幡宮の総本社・宇佐神宮（宇佐市南宇佐）の宮司職をめぐり、神社本庁（東京都）や県神社庁、同神宮の神職らと、代々宮司を世襲してきた到津（いとうづ）家や責任役員の一部が対立する状態になっている。昨年八月に死去した池永公比古前宮司の後任として、二月二十六日付で県神社庁長の穴井伸久氏（６０）＝玖珠町瀧神社宮司＝が就任。これに対し、到津家の長女克子（よしこ）権宮司（４０）の就任を求める到津家などの側が「本庁側に人事を支配する権限はなく認められない」と反発。本庁に脱退届を提出する事態に発展している。
穴井氏によると、神社本庁からの宮司職の辞令は、通例で任期が三年程度の「特任」。克子さんは異例のスピードで権宮司まで昇進したため、「勅祭社（ちょくさいしゃ）の宮司を継ぐには早すぎ、本庁から『経験が浅いのでもう少し待つように』と指摘があった。調整した結果、庁長のわたしが入るのが問題ないと判断した」と説明。「いずれ、しかるべき人に継いでもらうつもり」と話している。
一方、到津家側の同神宮責任役員賀来昌義さん（７０）は「本来なら宮司は氏子や責任役員が認めないとなれず、政教分離の原則に反する」と主張。さらに、「本庁が『（穴井氏の）任期は無期限と言っている』という話もあり、神宮を乗っ取ろうとしているのは明らか」と不信感を募らせる。新たに責任役員や氏子総代とした七人を含む九人で、本庁からの脱退を二月二十四日に決議し、二十七日に脱退届を提出。本庁からの離脱を求めて法廷闘争に入ろうとしている。
皇室第二の宗廟（びょう）で起きたお家騒動。地元住民の一人は「大変残念。イメージダウンにつながるので一刻も早く正常化してほしいのだが…」と気をもんでいる。
宇佐神宮の宮司 南北朝時代から到津、宮成両家が務め、戦後は到津家が単独で世襲。１９７３年から宮司の到津公斉氏（今年１月に死去）が体調を崩していたことから、２００５年４月に一人娘の克子さんが禰宜（ねぎ）に就任（０７年１０月から権宮司）。０６年５月に「克子さんが十分な経験を積むまでの間」として薦（こも）神社（中津市）宮司の池永氏が宮司を引き継ぎ、死去後は空席となっていた。
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宇佐神宮で後継争い 世襲家外した神社本庁に信者ら反発
2009年3月8日
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写真宮司人事をめぐり揺れる宇佐神宮＝大分県宇佐市南宇佐
大分県宇佐市の宇佐神宮が後継ぎ争いに揺れている。昨年８月に死去した前宮司の後任を、神社本庁（東京都）が別の神社の宮司から選んだことに地元信者らが反発。地元側は２月下旬、長く宮司を世襲してきた到津（いとうづ）家の長女を初の女性宮司に決め、神社本庁に脱退届を提出した。
宇佐神宮の宮司は長く到津家と宮成家が務めてきたが、戦後は到津家だけで世襲してきた。７３年から宮司を務めた到津公斉（きみなり）氏（今年１月死去）が体調を崩したため、０６年５月、宇佐神宮とかかわりの深い同県中津市の薦（こも）神社の宮司だった池永公比古（きみひこ）氏が後任についた。世襲家以外からの異例の人事だったが、公斉氏の長女でナンバー２の権宮司を務める克子（よしこ）氏（４０）が、十分な神職の経験を積むまでのピンチヒッター役と見られていた。
ところが、池永氏は昨年８月に病死した。宮司の選任は通常、信者らの責任役員会が人事案を決め、神社本庁の人事委員会で承認を得るのが慣例だ。責任役員会は克子氏を宇佐神宮で初の女性宮司に選ぶ考えだったが、神社本庁側は「克子氏ではまだ経験が浅い」と反対の意向だったため、宮司職は「空席」のままとなっている。
一方、克子氏以外の神職は、神社本庁に「後任宮司は、神社本庁や県神社庁からお願いしたい」とする嘆願書を提出。神社本庁は２月２６日、県神社庁長で同県玖珠町の瀧神社宮司を務める穴井伸久氏（６０）を後任宮司に決めた。
こうした動きに反発した克子氏と責任役員会は、穴井氏は責任役員会の承認を受けていないとして認めず、２月２４日に開いた氏子総代会と責任役員会で克子氏の宮司就任を決定。２８日には神社本庁に文書で脱退届を提出した。
克子氏は「宇佐神宮の宮司には一子相伝の就任秘儀があり、私だけが受け継いでいる。それを行えない者は宮司になれない」と強調。「都」での動きに「否」の“ご神託”を突き付けた。一方の穴井氏は「争いごとに似つかわしくない舞台でこんなことになるなんて。胃の痛い思いです」と話している。
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〈宇佐神宮〉 全国に約４万８千社ある八幡宮の総本社。皇室にとっては伊勢神宮に次ぎ格式が高いとされる。国指定史跡で、本殿は国宝。創立は７２５年。７６９年に称徳天皇の勅使として神宮を詣でた和気清麻呂が神託を受け、皇位を望んだ道鏡の野望を阻んだとされる。
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大分・宇佐神宮の世襲家、神社本庁に「乗っ取り」と反旗
宮司職を巡り揺れている宇佐神宮の本殿
全国八幡宮の総本社・宇佐神宮（大分県宇佐市）の宮司職を巡り、神社本庁（東京）と、世襲してきた到津(いとうづ)家が激しく対立している。
前宮司の死去に伴い、昨年８月から空席だった宮司に県神社庁長で瀧神社（同県玖珠町）宮司の穴井伸久さん（６０）が２月２６日付で就任したが、ナンバー２の権宮司を務める到津家の長女克子(よしこ)さん（４０）らが「乗っ取り行為だ」と反発。宮司の辞令を出した神社本庁に脱退届を提出した。
同神宮の宮司は南北朝時代から到津家か宮成家が務め、戦後は到津家だけで世襲してきた。２００６年５月、体調を崩した到津公齊(きみなり)宮司（今年１月死去）の後任に、同神宮と縁の深い同県中津市の薦(こも)神社の池永公比古(きみひこ)さんが、公齊氏の長女で神職の経験が浅い克子さんの“代役”として就任。だが、池永さんも体調を崩して職務が果たせなくなったため、昨年７月、同神宮責任役員会は克子さんを後任として神社本庁に申請した。
ところが、穴井さんによると、神社本庁は「克子さんは異例の早さで権宮司になった。もっと経験を積んだ方がいい」と判断。穴井さんを任期３年程度の「特任宮司」とする辞令を出した。
この人事に到津家側が反発。責任役員の賀来昌義さん（７０）らは２月２４日、克子さんを宮司とすることを新たに決議し、同２８日に神社本庁に脱退届を出した。賀来さんは「責任役員らの総意を無視するやり方」と憤慨、克子さんは訴訟も検討しているという。
宗教法人法では、神社本庁から脱退するには代表役員（宇佐神宮は宮司）を含む責任役員会の議決が必要と定めており、同庁秘書部は「（穴井）宮司からの脱退届ではないので、対処しようがない」としている。
◆宇佐神宮＝全国に４万余りある八幡宮の総本社。７２５年創立で、本殿は国宝。７６９年、称徳天皇の命を受け、和気清麻呂が同神宮から神託を持ち帰り、皇位を狙った道鏡の野望を阻止したことでも知られる。
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宇佐神宮：氏子ＶＳ神社本庁 宮司２人、就任騒動－－大分・八幡社総本宮
全国八幡社の総本宮・宇佐神宮（大分県宇佐市）の第８０代宮司に２人が“就任”する異例の事態が起きている。神社本庁は先日、大分県神社庁長の穴井伸久氏（６０）を選出したが、責任役員会と氏子総代会は代々宮司職を務める到津（いとうづ）家の長女、克子（よしこ）氏（４０）の就任を決め、神社本庁に離脱届を出した。訴訟も検討されており、泥沼化の恐れもある。
宇佐神宮の宮司職は代々到津家と宮成家が継いできたが、戦後は到津家が務めた。第７８代宮司で克子氏の父、公斉（きみなり）氏（今年１月死去）の後任には、世襲家以外の池永公比古（きみひこ）氏が就任。池永氏が０８年８月死去し、宮司職は空席となっていた。
同神宮を運営する責任役員会などは克子氏を宮司に推したが、克子氏以外の神職は「他の職員との信頼関係を構築していない」などとして神社本庁に克子氏以外から選ぶように嘆願。神社本庁は「克子氏はもう少し経験を積んでから」との理由で穴井氏を選んだ。しかし、これに反発した責任役員会と氏子総代会は２月２４日、同神宮の神社本庁からの離脱を決め、克子氏の宮司就任を決めた。
責任役員の一人、賀耒（かく）昌義さん（７０）は「責任役員会の承認を得ていない穴井宮司は認められない」と言う。一方、神社本庁は「穴井氏を適任と認め発令した」としている。【大漉実知朗】
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◇宇佐神宮
奈良時代の神亀２（７２５）年、聖武天皇が現在の地に応神天皇の御神霊である八幡神を祭祀（さいし）したとされる。全国約４万社の八幡社の総本宮として、伊勢神宮に次ぐ「宗廟（そうびょう）」として崇拝されてきた。
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宇佐神宮で後継騒動 神職と世襲家 宮司職めぐり対立 「経験浅い」「クーデターだ」
2009年3月15日 15:44 カテゴリー：九州・山口 > 大分 社会
大分県宇佐市の宇佐神宮が宮司の後継問題に揺れている。前宮司の死去で昨年８月から空席だった後任に、世襲の慣例を破ろうとした神職たちの嘆願書を受けた神社本庁（東京）が別の神社の宮司を任命。これに宮司職を世襲してきた先々代宮司の長女到津克子（よしこ）氏（４０）が反発、同庁に脱退届を提出したのだ。約６万人とされる氏子不在の騒動に、地元関係者は「１８日には春の例大祭も控えているのに、恥ずかしい限り」と憂えている。
対立しているのは到津氏と、そのほかの神職１１人。到津氏は４年前に同神宮で神職の仕事を始め、先々代の体調不良で代役を務めた前宮司が亡くなった際は、ナンバー２の権宮司だった。
騒動の発端は先々代宮司が他界した今年１月。葬儀翌日の１６日、１１人が連名で到津氏の言動が独善的であるとして「宮司就任を是としない」との嘆願書を同庁に出した。所属神社の宮司を選任する同庁は２月２６日、到津氏の経験不足などを理由に、大分県神社庁長で同県玖珠町の瀧（たき）神社宮司、穴井伸久氏（６０）を任期約３年の「特任」の新宮司に選んだ。
穴井氏の宮司就任に反発し、神社本庁からの脱退を試みた到津氏だが、宗教法人法では、脱退には信者の代表と宮司でつくる責任役員会の議決が必要。そこで新たに、従来の責任役員会とは別の役員会を設け、２月２８日、同庁に脱退を一方的に通知した。
同庁は「到津氏は権宮司にすぎない」として脱退届を却下。到津氏側は脱退を認めさせる訴訟も検討しているという。
新宮司の穴井氏は「神様への奉仕に争い事はふさわしくない」としながらも、騒動の原因については「１１人の神職もできる限り支えてきたが…」と語り、到津氏側に非があるとの認識だ。
一方、到津氏側の責任役員の男性（７０）は「嘆願書は神職によるクーデター」と批判。到津氏の宮司就任を支持する母の悦子氏は「喪に服する最中にこんな仕打ちとは。人間のすることではない」「娘は取材を断っている」と語った。
ある氏子は「双方が意思疎通を図ってこなかったつけが噴出した」と指摘する。宇佐神宮は全国４万余の八幡宮の総本社で、参拝していた横浜市の主婦（６２）は「どちらも神に仕えるという大義を忘れているのでは…」とため息をついた。
＝2009/03/15付 西日本新聞朝刊＝
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“官僚裁判官”は腐りきっている…非常識な低い量刑
裁判員制度“歓迎”の真意
豊富な裁判取材の経験から裁判員制度の“必要性”を説く門田氏
豊富な裁判取材の経験から裁判員制度の“必要性”を説く門田氏
山口県光市の母子殺人事件を取り上げた著書「なぜ君は絶望と闘えたのか－本村洋の３３００日」がベストセラーとなったフリージャーナリストの門田隆将氏が、５月から始まる裁判員制度を“歓迎”する新著を出した。裁判員制度については時期尚早など批判的な論調が多いが、門田氏は「新制度は官僚裁判官を“神様”の座から引きずり降ろす最後の手段」と語る。その真意を聞いた。
「裁判員制度が多くの問題を抱えているのは事実ですが、それでも導入するべき。それほど現行の“官僚裁判官”は腐りきっている。判決のほとんどは、自身の人事評価と前例主義、相場主義に支配されている。だからこそ、常識では考えられないほど低い量刑がまかり通ってしまうのです」
門田氏は１５日に発売した新刊「激突！裁判員制度」（ＷＡＣ出版）でも、裁判員制度に異議を唱える共著者の元裁判官、井上薫氏と激論。裁判員制度導入は不可避との持論を展開している。
週刊誌記者時代から裁判官のさまざまな問題を精力的に取材してきた門田氏は、１９９９年４月に起きた光市母子殺人事件の発生当初から被害者の本村氏に密着。本村氏が司法の厚い壁に挑み続けて死刑判決を勝ち取った日々を記録した「なぜ君は－」は１０万部を超えるベストセラーとなった。同書は４月発表の「大宅壮一ノンフィクション賞」の最終候補にも上がっているが、そうした取材の中から浮かび上がってきたのは、保身まみれの裁判官の姿だという。
「裁判における上訴の大半は被告人によるものですが、上訴は担当裁判官の人事評価にとってマイナスになる場合がある。“上訴率”を下げたい一心で被告に甘い判決を下したり、かりに上訴されて判決が覆されたとしても責任を問われないように前例などを重視する裁判官が多いのです」
裁判員制度に対しては、「法律の素人に正確な事実認定などできない」といった批判があるが、門田氏は「官僚裁判官のほうがもっとひどい。それを実証したのが高知であり、福岡であり、江東だ」と語る。
２００６年３月、高知県で白バイ隊員がスクールバスに激突して死亡した。原因は隊員の過失によるものだったが、高知県警がバス運転手を訴えた裁判では、原告に有利な同僚隊員の証言しか採用されず、バス運転手の業務上過失致死罪が確定した。同年８月、福岡で飲酒運転による追突で３人の乳幼児が死亡した事故でも、複数の証言があるにもかかわらず被告の「酩酊」を否認、危険運転過失致死罪を回避した。
「今年２月の東京・江東区の『神隠し殺人』に至っては、『殺害方法は冷酷だが、残虐極まりないとはいえない』という理解不可能な前例主義が復活した。本村氏が開けた風穴が再び閉ざされてしまったのです」
そのうえで門田氏は、「正しい量刑を得るためには、世間の常識から隔離された官僚裁判官の世界に、豊富な人生経験と社会常識を持つ民間人が切り込むしかない」と語るのだ。
ZAKZAK 2009/03/16
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高速道「逆走」、３年連続９００件超 ４割が６５歳以上
2009年3月16日3時2分
図： 拡大
高速道路上で進行方向とは逆に走行する「逆走」が３年連続で９００件を超え、毎年数十件が人身事故に至っていることが、高速道路６社や警察庁の集計で分かった。逆走したうえ事故を起こす運転者の４割前後が６５歳以上の高齢者。高速道路各社は防止策を模索しているが、決定打はまだない。
６社は０６年以降、逆走の統計をまとめている。目撃者の通報やカメラ映像などで確認できた分は、０６年が９４７件、０７年９４４件、０８年も９１４件に上った。一方、警察庁によると、逆走に伴う人身事故は０１年１月～今年２月末に２５８件あり、６９人が死亡、４３５人が重軽傷を負った。１カ月平均で２．６件の事故が起き、５．１人が死傷した計算だ。
運転者の年齢別では、高齢者が際立つ。西日本高速道路（大阪市）が０２～０６年の逆走車の事故を分析した結果、６５歳以上の運転が４４．７％を占めた。高速での事故全体に占める高齢者の割合（４．７％）の約９倍。警察庁のまとめでも、０１年以降の逆走人身事故の３８．８％は高齢者が引き起こしていたという。
西日本高速の調査では、インターチェンジ内が約３０％、本線内が約２５％、ＳＡ・ＰＡ内が約１５％だった。
対策は９０年代半ばから続けられている。最近では日本道路公団（当時）が０４年、プロジェクトチームを立ち上げ、起きやすい地点に看板を立てたり、啓発ビデオを自動車教習所に配布したりした。
０７年１１月には高速各社の協議会が防止装置の開発を公募。これを受け、民間７社が、逆走を感知すると「逆走禁止」「危険戻れ」と点滅する看板などを開発した。昨年７月以降、全国２４カ所のＳＡやＰＡで有効性を検証中だ。
西日本高速は日産自動車と共同で、カーナビを使い逆走を運転者に音声や文字で警告するシステムを開発。１１年中の実用化を目指している。
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大証の０８年デリバティブ、世界１５位に
前年２２位から躍進
２００８年の金融派生商品（デリバティブ）取引高で、大阪証券取引所が、比較可能な世界５２の取引所・グループの中で１５位となり、前年の２２位から順位を上げたことが、米国先物業協会のまとめでわかった。
大証の取引高は前年比５０・３％増の１億６３６８万単位で、伸び率は前年（７９・６％増）より鈍化したが、世界平均（１３・７％増）を上回った。株式相場の急落を受け、値動きがわかりやすい「日経２２５ｍｉｎｉ（ミニ）」の取引が膨らんだことなどが要因だ。
国内勢では、東京金融取引所が２６位（前年３３位）、東京証券取引所は３３位（同３６位）といずれも順位を上げたが、両取引所の取引高は前年を下回っており、大証の躍進ぶりが目立つ。
大証は１０年をめどにトップ１０入りを目指している。
（2009年3月13日 読売新聞）
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需給ギャップはマイナス4.1％ 内閣府、08年10―12月期
内閣府は17日、2008年10―12月期の経済全体の需要と供給の差を示す需給ギャップがマイナス4.1％になったと発表した。03年1―3月期以来、ほぼ6年ぶりの低水準に落ち込んだ。マイナスは3四半期連続となる。内閣府はおよそ20兆円の需要が不足しているとみている。政府・与党は不足分を補う追加経済対策のとりまとめを加速するよう迫られそうだ。
需給ギャップは需要に当たる実際の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）と、企業の持つ生産設備や労働力を平均的に使って生み出す潜在ＧＤＰ（供給）との差から算出する。マイナスになると供給が需要を上回り、物価が下がりやすい状況にあることを示す。デフレが加速する恐れもある。
今回は12日発表の実質ＧＤＰ成長率改定値が前期比年率12.1％減と速報値から上方修正されたのに伴い、需給ギャップも2月の公表値（マイナス4.3％）を見直した。20兆円の穴埋め策としては、財政出動のほか、雇用を生む新産業の育成が欠かせない。(20:01)
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野村、個人向けに初の南アランド建て社債 105億円
野村ホールディングスは17日、グループ子会社を通じて南アフリカランド建ての個人向け社債を発行すると発表した。野村がランド建て債を発行するのは初めて。金額は10億7000万ランド（約105億円）。期間は2年で、利率は年7％。高金利通貨建ての金融商品に個人投資家の人気が集まる中で品ぞろえを増やすとともに、資金調達の手段を多様化する。(20:01)
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ドメイン名紛争、２年連続で最多 08年、世界で８％増
世界知的所有権機関（ＷＩＰＯ）は16日、インターネット上の住所に当たるドメイン名を巡る紛争が2008年に前年比8％増の2329件となり、2年連続で過去最高を更新したと発表した。特定の企業や商品名を勝手に使ったドメイン名の登録が増え、企業が紛争処理制度を持つＷＩＰＯに相次いで訴えを起こしているためだ。
有名な企業や商品名を使ったドメイン名を勝手に登録し、勘違いしてアクセスしてきた人を全く別の商品販売サイトなどに誘導してしまう手口が多い。（ジュネーブ＝藤田剛）(07:00)
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損保ジャパン社長「３年後に海外事業の利益率15％に」
【広州＝阿部将樹】損害保険ジャパンの佐藤正敏社長は16日、中国広東省広州市で日本経済新聞記者と会い、今後の海外事業について「3年後には利益率 15％以上を確保できる体制を構築する」と述べた。2010年4月の経営統合を発表した日本興亜損害保険とは「海外では両社の顧客は重複が少ない。競争し合う中でも連携を強めていく」と強調した。
佐藤社長は同日、中国で3番目の支店となる広東支店の開業式典に出席し、取材に応じた。海外展開について「これまでは進出する日系企業の支援として展開してきたが、海外の顧客に向けて商品を販売する姿勢が足りなかった」と話した。(07:00)
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減産で「一時休業者」最多 １月153万人
工場の減産などに伴い仕事を一時的に休む休業者数が1月に153万人となり、総務省が1968年に調査を開始して以来最多となった。人件費を抑えながら雇用を確保したい企業が休業制度の利用を増やしているのが背景。政府・与党は休業者への手当の一部を助成する雇用調整助成金を利用しやすくして後押しする。休業者は月2―3割増える見通しで、失業率の上昇ペースがやわらぐ効果もありそうだ。
休業者とは病気やけが、会社都合などで仕事を離れていながら企業から賃金や手当を受け取っている労働者。昨年10月時点では106万人だったが、3カ月で47万人増えた。前年同月比で見ても増加幅は2カ月連続で20万人を超えた。(07:00)
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トヨタ、年間一時金186万円で妥結へ 08年実績３割近く下回る
今春の賃金交渉で、トヨタ自動車の労使は年間一時金186万円（組合員平均）で妥結する見通しになった。業績の急速な悪化を受けて労組が要求していた 198万円を下回り、10年ぶりに満額回答しない方針。このうち冬分の93万円については業績動向を見極めたうえで協議し確定する方向だ。トヨタを含む自動車、電機大手の経営側は18日、賃金改善の見送りと一時金の大幅減額を一斉回答する。
トヨタの一時金の回答額186万円は昨年実績の253万円を3割近く下回る水準。トヨタの2009年3月期は4500億円の連結営業赤字になる見通し。一時金は業績連動の要素が強く、労組も回答を受け入れるとみられる。(22:06)
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住友大阪セメント、新３カ年中計の設備投資額9.1％削減
住友大阪セメントは17日、2010年3月期から3カ年の中期経営計画を発表した。連結ベースの設備投資額を09年3月期までの3カ年に比べ9.1％削減し529億円とする。計画最終年度末の有利子負債は09年3月期末見込みから11.3％減の1046億円に抑制する。財務基盤を固めながら新しい収益源を確保する。
09年3月期までの3カ年では減価償却費を上回る積極的な設備投資を実施したが、新しい3カ年では設備投資を抑え、有利子負債の削減を優先する。
中国事業の強化、石灰石の販売強化、新材料事業への進出などで新たな収益源を確保し、国内のセメント市場の縮小に対応する。連結ベースで、2012年3 月期の売上高を09年3月期見通し比10.9％増の2430億円、最終利益を3.5倍の68億円に引き上げる考え。(22:01)
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曙ブレーキ、事務系正社員150人の希望退職募集
曙ブレーキ工業は17日、1100人いる国内の事務系正社員を対象に希望退職者を募ると発表した。募集人員は150人。4月初め時点で38歳以上、59 歳未満の社員が対象で、組合員50人を含む。国内生産拠点の集約も進めており、2550人いる製造現場の社員についても今後、希望退職者の募集を予定しているという。
また同日、東京都中央区にあるグループ本社（本店）ビルの一部を60億円で売却すると発表した。売却先は明らかにしていない。
事務系の希望退職は5月7日から6月3日まで募集。7月末で退職する。通常の退職金に加えて特別加算金を払うほか再就職も支援する。特別損失の計上額は算定中としている。
製造現場の社員については今後、条件や募集人数などを詰める。非正規従業員についてはすでに、昨年10月末時点で500人いた派遣社員を3月末でゼロにする方針を打ち出している。
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ユニクロ、ジル・サンダー氏と提携 商品監修や独自商品
ユニクロは17日、ドイツの有名ファッションデザイナーであるジル・サンダー氏と商品にかかわるデザインコンサルティング契約を結んだと発表した。世界のユニクロ店で販売する商品全体をサンダー氏が監修。商品の完成度を高め、おしゃれにこだわる女性層を中心に取り込む。
サンダー氏のデザインした独自商品も発売する。ジャケット、スカート、外衣などを10月をメドに女性用で50種、男性用で15―20種を開発する。高級素材を使い、現在のユニクロ製品より「若干価格が上がる場合がある」（勝田幸弘執行役員）という。
サンダー氏は高級ブランド「ジルサンダー」の創始者。無駄のないシンプルなデザインで知られる。1999年にイタリアの高級ブランドのプラダに売却後、同ブランドを離れた。コンサルティング会社を新設しユニクロと契約した。契約額、期間、事業規模などは非公表。(19:43)
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森精機、２―４割追加減産 ４月から
森精機製作所は4月から工作機械を追加減産する。主力の伊賀事業所（三重県伊賀市）など国内4工場合わせた生産台数を現在より2―4割引き下げ、月 200―250台にする。生産量は直近のピークだった2008年3月に比べ「3分の1以下」（森雅彦社長）に落ち込む。同社の今年1―3月の月間生産台数は昨年12月に比べて50―100台減っている。
追加減産の方針を決めたのに伴い、工場の稼働日を現在の週4日から週3日―3日半に短縮する。自動車産業向けの旋盤など特に需要減が大きい部門で月曜から水曜までの週3日操業とする。生産ラインが止まる木、金曜はベテラン社員が中堅・若手社員を対象にマシニングセンター（ＭＣ）の組み立てや据え付けといった作業ノウハウを伝える研修に充てる。(07:00)
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長谷工、マンション建設コストを最大２割削減
長谷工コーポレーションは建築コストを最大20％削減できる経済設計の新築分譲マンションを開発、販売を開始した。出窓や部屋の出っ張りを無くした施工しやすい間取りを採用、洗面化粧台の三面鏡を一枚鏡にまとめるなど基本性能だけに絞り込んだ。コスト削減分をそのまま発売価格に反映させると10％前後安くすることが可能。国が指定した住宅性能評価機関による「住宅性能評価」も付け、安全性も担保する。
第1弾として埼玉県川口市で「川口青木町公園計画」（総戸数は59戸）で商品化した。発売価格は80平方メートルタイプで2700万円台。初年度は10 棟程度を手掛け、順次拡大する計画。事業主として自社で開発、販売するほか、他のデベロッパーから発注があった場合は設計・施工に回る。(07:00)
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ＪＲ貨物、江東区の貨物駅跡を大型ＳＣ 24日着工、来春完成
日本貨物鉄道（ＪＲ貨物）は24日、江東区北砂の小名木川貨物駅跡に計画中の大型商業施設を着工する。約5万6000平方メートルの敷地に、ショッピングセンター棟（延べ床面積約8万6600平方メートル）や駐車場、フィットネスクラブ棟（同2万5700平方メートル）を整備する。2010年5月の完成予定で、施設はイトーヨーカ堂に一括貸しする。総事業費は非公開。
同駅跡地はＪＲ亀戸駅の南約1キロで、総面積は約10万平方メートル。明治通りに隣接し、交通の便が良い。大型商業施設は計2150台分の駐車場を備え、1118台分の駐輪場も整備する計画だ。
ＪＲ貨物は01年から地元協議や行政手続きを開始。当初は08年4月の完成予定だったが、施工者が決まらず、本体工事に先行して土壌汚染対策工事を進めていた。
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千葉銀、千住支店を開業 中計の出店計画、頭取「ほぼ達成」
千葉銀行は16日、ＪＲ常磐線やつくばエクスプレス（ＴＸ）などが乗り入れる北千住駅近くに千住支店（東京・足立）を開業した。2009年3月期までに県内外に10拠点程度を新設する計画で計8店舗を開設したことになり、佐久間英利頭取は「計画はほぼ達成できた」と話した。今後も隣接都県への新規出店を検討するほか、これらの成長地域に人員を重点配置する考えを明らかにした。
千住支店は、法人向け融資を行う拠点として06年6月に開設した北千住法人営業所を支店に昇格して新設した。同地区のランドマークである東京芸術センターの1階に入居。好立地を生かし個人向け住宅ローンの開拓や資産運用の相談業務にも力を入れる。
同センター内のホールを利用したコンサートの開催など地域貢献も果たしていく考えだ。
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第一三共、創薬を神戸に集約 10年秋ポーアイ移転
第一三共は16日、グループ会社を通じて神戸市の人工島、ポートアイランドに2010年10月に進出すると発表した。創薬にかかわる国内唯一の研究開発子会社の本社・研究所を同島に移転、集約する。グループ内の創薬ベンチャーとして事業を強化する。ポーアイでは民間企業で最大の研究施設となり、神戸市の医療産業都市構想に大きな弾みとなりそうだ。
この研究開発子会社は、循環器や中枢神経、免疫系の医薬品開発を手がけるアスビオファーマ（横山誠一社長）。現在は東京都港区に本社を置き、群馬県千代田町と大阪府島本町の2カ所に研究所を持つ。09年3月期の売上高は250億円の見通し。
アスビオ社は「ポーアイはバイオ関連の研究所や企業が集まっており、最先端の研究に適している」（経営企画部）として移転を決めた。
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社会保障費抑制策は転換を 西室財制審会長
財政制度等審議会（財務相の諮問機関）の西室泰三会長は17日の会合後の記者会見で、社会保障費の自然増分を毎年度2200億円抑制する政府方針について「しゃくし定規に削る考え方は、これからは難しい」と述べ、社会保障給付の充実へ政策転換すべきだとの認識を示した。6月ごろにまとめる2010年度予算編成に向けた建議（意見書）にこうした考えを反映するとみられる。
政府・与党が検討中の追加経済対策の財源については「財政投融資特別会計の積立金が足りない場合は、国債の増発をせざるを得ない」と指摘、赤字国債の追加発行を容認した。自民党内で浮上している相続税減免による無利子国債に関しては「研究の余地はある」と述べた。(22:01)
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要介護認定 「軽すぎる判定」少なく 厚労省が基準案修正方針
厚生労働省は4月に見直しを予定する介護保険制度の要介護認定の判定基準について、原案を一部修正する方針を固めた。利用者団体などから「基準見直しで介護が必要な度合いが実態よりも軽く判定されてしまう」という反発が強まったのに対応。寝たきりの人への介助の必要性など、実態に即して判定するよう基準を修正する。3月中に修正案をまとめて市町村に通知する。
要介護認定は介護が必要な度合いを市町村の調査員が7段階で判定する仕組み。判定した要介護度に応じて介護サービスの利用限度額が変わることになっている。
見直し案では、例えば寝たきりの人は「移動する機会がない」と考え、介助の必要度が「なし」と判定される方向だった。実際には寝たきりの人は体位変換などが必要なため、修正案ではほぼすべてのケースで全面的に介助が必要な「全介助」と判定する。認知症の利用者が1人で買い物をする場合も「介助なし」としていたが、代金を間違えるケースなどを想定して「一部介助」が必要と認定する。(14:34)
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陸幕長に火箱芳文氏
浜田靖一防衛相は17日の閣議で、斎藤隆統合幕僚長の勇退を認め、後任に折木良一陸上幕僚長を、折木氏の後任に火箱芳文中部方面総監をそれぞれ充てる人事を報告し、了承を得た。24日に発令する。(10:06)
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早大生の１割「周囲に薬物」 大麻事件で意識調査
早稲田大は17日、在学生の大麻事件などを受けて緊急に実施した学生の意識アンケート結果をまとめた。「周囲に違法薬物の所持・使用者はいるか」の問いに9.9％の学生が「いる」と答え、大学で薬物がまん延している可能性が改めて浮かんだ。
調査は昨年12月から今年1月にかけてネット経由で実施。4702人から回答を得た。(16:00)
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東京など広範囲で黄砂 気温は４月下旬並み
17日午前、東北から九州にかけて列島の広い範囲で黄砂を観測した。気象庁によると、東京では午前9時時点で8キロ先までしか見通せなくなった。中国大陸で巻き上がる砂ぼこりが減り、偏西風が弱まるため、18日午後にかけて次第に収まる見通し。この日朝の東京の最低気温は10.2度と4月中旬並み。平年よりも約5度高かった。
また網走地方気象台（北海道）は、オホーツク海沿岸の網走で、流氷が沿岸から遠ざかる「海明け」が、平年より21日早い今月3日だったと発表。春の訪れは駆け足だ。(13:46)
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プリンスホテル書類送検、旅館業法違反容疑 日教組宿泊拒否
グランドプリンスホテル新高輪（東京都港区）が日本教職員組合（日教組）の教育研究全国集会の参加者の宿泊を拒んだ問題で、警視庁保安課は17日、同ホテルを運営するプリンスホテル（豊島区）の渡辺幸弘社長（61）ら4人と、法人としての同社を旅館業法違反容疑で書類送検した。
同課によると、これまでの任意の調べに対し、渡辺社長らは「違法性は認識していたが、右翼団体の街宣活動の騒音で宿泊客らに迷惑をかけたくなかった」と供述しているという。
書類送検の容疑は2007年11月、同ホテルで昨年2月に開催予定だった教研集会の出席予定者190人について、特段の理由がないにもかかわらず、宿泊を拒んだ疑い。(11:02)
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羽賀研二被告の証人の元歯科医を偽証罪で在宅起訴
未公開株の売買をめぐり詐欺と恐喝未遂の罪に問われ、大阪地裁で無罪判決（求刑懲役８年）を受けたタレントの羽賀研二（本名・當真美喜男）被告（４７）の公判でうその証言をしたとして、大阪地検は１７日午後、偽証罪で千葉県浦安市在住の元歯科医（４７）を在宅起訴した。無罪判決後に地検は控訴しており、羽賀被告の有罪立証につなげるとともに、羽賀被告本人も偽証教唆の疑いで慎重に調べている。
羽賀被告は知人男性に対し、未公開株を１株４０万円で取得したことを隠し、１株１２０万円で入手したと誤信させて売りつけ３億７０００万円をだまし取ったなどとして平成１９年に起訴された。地検などによると、元歯科医は昨年８月に弁護側証人として出廷。知人男性と面識がないにもかかわらず、「知人男性が同席した場で羽賀被告から１株４０万円で取得したと聞いた」などとうその証言をしたとされる。
捜査関係者によると、元歯科医は羽賀被告と１０年以上前からの知り合い。歯の治療をしたことから関係が深まり、１８年にハワイで開かれた羽賀被告の結婚式にも出席するなど親密な関係にあったという。
ZAKZAK 2009/03/17
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力士暴行死：時津風前親方を保釈
大相撲時津風部屋の力士暴行死事件で、名古屋地裁から保釈が認められた前親方、山本順一被告（５９）は１７日、保釈保証金８００万円を即日納付し、保釈された。保釈は０８年２月の逮捕から１年１カ月ぶり。山本被告は午後３時２０分ごろ、弁護人とともに車に乗り込み、名古屋拘置所を出た。
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私立大：２法人が「教育に支障」 経済危機で資産運用悪化
経済危機により、私立大を運営する学校法人の資産運用状況が悪化し、２法人の教育研究活動に大きな支障が生じ、１１法人が今後約５年間で「大きな支障が生じる恐れがある」と考えていることが分かった。日本私立学校振興・共済事業団が今年１月、私立の大学・短大を運営する６６８法人を対象に初めてアンケート調査を実施。約８割の５３８法人から回答を得た。
１３法人からは「人件費などの削減が必要」「施設整備計画を見直す」などの回答があった。０８年度にデリバティブ取引を行っているのは６９法人。うち３１法人は「リスクヘッジ以外の目的で運用している」と回答。また「仕組み債」と呼ばれる複雑な金融商品（元本保証なし）を保有しているのは１１４法人で、うち３３法人は「満期保有以外の目的で運用している」と答えた。
デリバティブ取引では昨年、駒沢大が１５４億円の損失を出したほか、南山大などを運営する南山学園が３４億円、愛知大が２８億円の損失を確定させた。
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