Australian Wheat Exports Forecast to Jump 44%, Bureau Says

Australian Wheat Exports Forecast to Jump 44%, Bureau Says
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By Madelene Pearson

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat exports from Australia, the world’s fourth-largest shipper, may jump 44 percent in fiscal 2010 because of increased local supplies, the nation’s key commodity forecaster said.

Shipments may rise to 14.7 million metric tons in the 12 months ending June 30, 2010, the Canberra-based Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said today in a report. That compares with 10.2 million tons a year earlier. Production may gain 3.3 percent, it said.

The predicted jump in shipments comes as global prices are forecast to fall 5 percent, the bureau said. Australia last year ended its monopoly on wheat exports, giving 22 traders including Cargill Inc. and Glencore International AG, permission to sell the grain overseas.

“The outlook for global wheat prices is not that favorable at the moment,” Doug Whitehead, agricultural commodity strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said before the report was released. “We’ve got abundant stocks and exportable surpluses in a lot of regions and that should cap any increase in the global grain price.”

World inventories, already at six-year high, will rise for a second year in fiscal 2010, the bureau said. The world wheat indicator price may fall about 5 percent to average $248 a ton in the year ending June 30, 2010, it said.

Australia’s wheat production may rise to 22.1 million tons in 2009-2010, from 21.4 million tons a year earlier, the forecaster said, after drought cut production in the previous two harvests. Global output may fall to 632 million tons, down from a record 687 million tons a year earlier, it said.

Australia’s total farm export earnings are tipped to rise 4 percent to A$32.1 billion ($20 billion) in 2009-2010 aided by a gain in sales from wheat, the bureau said.

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Australia May Boost Gold Output 17% Over 4 Years, Bureau Says
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By Rebecca Keenan

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold output in Australia, the world’s third-largest producer, will increase 17 percent during the next four years as investors boost purchases amid the global recession.

Output is forecast at 264 metric tons in the year ending June 30, 2012, the Canberra-based Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said today. Output this fiscal year may 225 tons, the bureau said.

Gold, the best-performing metal in 2008, was one of only four commodities to rise when the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index fell 36 percent, the worst year in a half-century. Demand for gold bars, coins and other physical products this year has been strong, the bureau said, pushing the price up 8 percent.

Australian gold exports are forecast to rise 59 percent to A$17.3 billion ($11 billion) in the year ending June 30, after increases in output and prices, the bureau said. Gold for immediate deliveries may average $910 an ounce this year and $940 an ounce the following year, it said.

Global output of gold may increase 3 percent this year to 2,464 tons, the bureau said.

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German Real Estate Companies Owing EU4.2 Billion Face Deadlines
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By Claudia Rach

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s real estate companies are fighting for survival, with deadlines looming to refinance short-term debt that’s as much as 18 times their market capitalization while the recession erodes asset values.

Loans defined as short-term by the 10 largest publicly traded property companies total 4.2 billion euros ($5.3 billion), according to their most recent financial reports. Patrizia Immobilien AG, Vivacon AG and IVG Immobilien AG alone owe 3.1 billion euros, part of which expires as early as next month. That’s more than five times the trio’s combined market value, which has shrunk 83 percent in the past year.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if banks pull the plug for some real estate companies in the very near future,” said Matthias Schrade, an analyst at GSC Research in Dusseldorf, Germany.

Augsburg-based Patrizia and Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, the commercial property lender bailed out by Germany, are among stocks on Schrade’s “don’t touch” list. Since 2003, 11 of the 91 companies on that list have gone bankrupt and shares of 63 others slumped even as the equity market rose.

Toxic debt from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has forced banks around the world to seek bailouts. While Germany said this month that Hypo Real Estate is too important to go bankrupt, none of the top 10 listed property companies is bigger than 700 million euros in market value. The prospect of some of the companies failing is turning investors away, said Matthias Born, a fund manager at Allianz Global Investors in Frankfurt who has sold most real estate shares from his 1.2 billion-euro portfolio.

Bank Scrutiny

The ratio of debt to assets is one benchmark banks watch closely. A range of up to 60 percent to 65 percent is where “banks would still be willing to give credit,” according to Olaf Meisen, a partner who specializes in real estate finance at law firm Allen & Overy LLP in Frankfurt. Seven of the 10 companies have ratios that exceed 65 percent, with Patrizia topping the list with 80 percent, according to Frank Neumann, an analyst at Bankhaus Lampe AG in Dusseldorf.

General Growth Properties Inc., the U.S. owner of shopping malls that warned last week it may be forced into bankruptcy, is saddled with $1.18 billion in past-due debt.

While most of the bigger U.S. real estate firms have received debt ratings, none of the top 10 German property firms are rated by Moody’s Investors Service or Standard & Poor’s. That doesn’t make it easier for the companies to raise funds, said Torsten Klingner, an analyst at SES Research in Hamburg.

‘Real Problem’

Patrizia, which builds and manages residential property, has 1.3 billion euros in short-term debt, of which 530 million euros are due at the end of March. The debt level could be “a real problem” and banks could possibly force the company to sell shares or into insolvency, according to GSC’s Schrade.

Patrizia Chief Operating Officer Klaus Schmitt disputes that. “We’re in talks with our banks and there are no signs a prolongation won’t work,” he said in a Feb. 20 interview.

Munich-based Hypo Real Estate, which has received 102 billion euros in public guarantees and credit from the German government, is one of Patrizia’s largest lenders, according to Sal. Oppenheim Jr. & Cie.’s Frankfurt-based analyst Sven Janssen. Hypo Real Estate spokesman Oliver Gruss and Patrizia’s Andreas Menke won’t comment.

Germany’s commercial property market froze in the second half of 2008 as financing dried up, said Tobias Just, a real estate economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt. Prices will probably fall 30 percent this year from 2007, he predicts.

Defaults Expected

In a parliament report this month, Germany’s government singled out commercial real estate as an industry where “defaults must be expected” as the financial crisis deepens.

TAG Immobilien AG, the property firm founded in 1882 to build a railway in Bavaria, reported a 2008 net loss yesterday after writing down the value of its assets. More may follow.

Vivacon, which specializes in leaseholds of residential property, may have to write down about 140 million euros in asset value in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to SES Research’s Klingner. The company has 524.8 million euros in short-term debt and a market value of 39.3 million euros.

A Vivacon spokesman in Cologne said the company is in “promising” talks with banks to extend its short-term debt.

A spokesman at Bonn-based IVG, which owns offices, business parks and industrial property, declined to comment on how the company will refinance its 1.4 billion euros in short-term debt.

Vivacon has slumped 86 percent in the past year, leading a decline in German real estate shares. IVG fell 83 percent. Patrizia lost 65 percent, cutting the company’s market value to 74 million euros, compared with its 1.3 billion euros in short- term debt.

‘Against the Wall’

Still, lenders may prefer to extend loans and demand higher interest rates, Bankhaus Lampe’s Neumann said. Earlier this month, Eurocastle Investment Ltd., a property fund managed by Fortress Investment Group LLP that invests in Germany commercial real estate, extended a 236 million-euro loan after agreeing to increase interest payments by 75 basis points, or three quarters of a percent.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, the biggest government- controlled U.K. bank, last week reported a full-year loss of 24.1 billion pounds ($33.9 billion) and said it would shift 540 billion pounds of mortgage-backed securities and other assets to a new unit. RBS owns about 22 billion pounds of real estate loans secured by properties worth less than the amount loaned, analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove Ltd wrote in a Feb. 19 note.

“Banks can’t afford to drive real estate companies against the wall,” Neumann said. “They have other problems at the moment than to cash in real estate portfolios.”

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Russia Stock Gains Strengthen Putin as Ukraine Drops (Update2)
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By Emma O’Brien and Laura Cochrane

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Russia, the worst-performing major stock market in 2008, was Europe’s best last month as the ruble rose and reserves stabilized. Every neighboring market crumbled.

The Micex equity index climbed 6.6 percent in February as the world’s second-biggest oil producer stopped speculators from driving down the ruble and depleting its $382 billion of foreign exchange reserves. In Ukraine, the central bank’s holdings fell 24 percent since August and the benchmark PFTS Index lost 21 percent last month. Latvia’s OMX Riga Index dropped 8 percent.

While Russia’s government said the economy will contract for the first time in a decade and currency reserves are down 36 percent from August, the nation’s relative strength is raising Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s influence over former Soviet states. Ukraine discussed borrowing $5 billion. Kazakhstan wants Russia to buy ailing BTA Bank. Belarus is asking for $3 billion in loans, on top of $2 billion granted last year.

“Russia isn’t looking at a straight-line deterioration into oblivion,” said Kieran Curtis, who helps manage $800 million in emerging-market fixed-income assets in London at Aviva Investors Ltd. “It has enough liquid assets to take stakes in all kinds of things in the former Soviet states.”

Last year, international investors fled Russia after its war with Georgia, a 54 percent decline in the price of Urals crude, and the global credit crisis sent the Micex down 67 percent. Speculators targeted the ruble, driving it 20 percent lower against the dollar and 19 percent versus the euro. Bank Rossii spent $216 billion to keep the currency’s seven-month drop from turning into a rout.

Downgraded

Standard & Poor’s cut Russia’s credit rating in December by one level to BBB, the second-lowest investment-grade ranking. The government expects to run a budget deficit of about 8 percent of gross domestic product this year.

The central bank steadied the ruble, which gained 0.5 percent against the dollar last month, by pledging to raise interest rates and curtailing loans that banks were using to bet against the currency. Investors anticipate government plans to provide $200 billion in loans and reduce taxes will bolster the economy and push up the Micex, which is down 67 percent from its record high in May.

The Micex fell 1.6 percent today and the ruble dropped as much as 0.9 percent to its weakest level against the dollar in a week.

Russia is “still better off than others, mostly because of the reserves,” said Beat Siegenthaler, chief emerging-markets strategist in London for TD Securities Ltd.

Political Rivalry

Eighteen years after the collapse of the Soviet Union depleted Moscow’s power, Ukraine needs foreign funds to close its $12.3 billion current-account deficit after the global recession curbed demand for steel and international credit dried up. The currency, the hryvnia, dropped 44 percent against the dollar in the past six months. The country’s 22 percent inflation rate is the highest in continental Europe.

Ukraine estimates a budget deficit at 5 percent of GDP for 2009 and risks violating terms of a $16.4 billion International Monetary Fund loan agreement. Foreign-currency reserves fell 24 percent since August and are below the $30.2 billion the IMF required. The second portion of the credit, due in January, hasn’t been approved.

The country has also been weakened by the political rivalry between Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko, who led the so-called Orange Revolution in late 2004 when the country’s pro-Russian government was peacefully overthrown.

Gas Spat

Ukraine tried to increase ties with western Europe and the U.S., seeking membership to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization last year and the European Union. Russia shut off natural gas shipments through Ukraine over a price dispute in January.

Now, the sinking economy is giving Putin, 56, the advantage. Timoshenko requested aid from Russia, the U.S., the European Union, China and Japan this year and Russia gave a “positive response,” she said Feb. 9. Yushchenko shut down what he called “unauthorized” negotiations for a loan.

“This crisis is the best opportunity that Russia’s had to rein in Ukraine and make sure nobody else moves in on their backyard for a long time,” said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Moscow-based bank UralSib.

Moscow won’t discuss giving a loan to Ukraine until the political situation in Kiev stabilizes, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told a press conference in Moscow today.

Flexing Muscle

Russia may be willing to draw on its reserves to prop up neighboring economies, said Ivan Tchakarov, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in London. “Ukraine will require more than the $16 billion from the IMF, so they will need Russian money,” he said. “It’s the perfect time for Russia to flex its muscles.”

Russia’s foreign-currency debt is rated eight levels higher than Ukraine. S&P cut Ukraine’s credit rating by two levels last week to CCC+, seven below investment grade and the lowest in Europe. S&P also cut Latvia to below investment grade.

Investors demand a record 28.1 percentage points more in yield on Ukrainian government bonds than Russian, compared with a gap of 3 percentage points six months ago, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes. As recently as 2003, Ukraine’s bonds yielded 2 percentage points less than Russia’s.

Contracts to protect Ukraine government bonds against default imply a 69.6 percent chance Ukraine will fail to pay its debt in the next two years and 91.8 percent odds in the next five years, according to CMA Datavision prices for credit- default swaps last week.

Belarus, Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan is seeking to sell its 78 percent stake in Almaty-based BTA Bank, the country’s largest, to Russia’s government-controlled lender OAO Sberbank, Arman Dunayev, deputy chief of Kazakhstan’s state oil fund, said Feb. 2.

Armenia will receive $500 million from Russia, equivalent to about 2.5 percent of its gross domestic product, Putin said on Feb. 28. Belarus, which borders Russia and Poland, has a $2.46 billion credit line from the IMF in addition to loans from Russia.

Kyrgyzstan got a $2 billion loan from Russia and was promised a further $150 million in economic aid on Feb. 3. The same day, Kyrgyzstan’s government announced it would shutter the military base the U.S. Air Force has used for supplying troops in Afghanistan.

“I welcome Russia’s efforts to try and create stronger economic linkages because for investors it’s stabilizing,” said Jerome Booth, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management Ld. in London, which manages $36 billion of emerging-market assets. “It’s looking for relationships it wants to solidify in the region.”

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Iran, Russia discuss long-term interaction in NPP building

03.03.2009, 07.56





RABAT, March 3 (Itar-Tass) - Prospects for long-term interaction in the sphere of NPP construction were in the focus of discussion at a meeting of Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko and Iranian Vice President and head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) Gholam Reza Agazadeh in Tehran on Monday evening, Agazadeh said on the results of the talks, the Islamic Republic’s State Television reported on Tuesday.

Agazadeh said, in particular, that Shmatko occupies the post of the co-chairman of the Russian-Iranian intergovernmental commission on trade-economic cooperation. “We discussed prospects for log-term and comprehensive cooperation, especially in the sphere of the construction of nuclear power plants in the future, as well as other kinds of interaction that may be implemented in Iran,” the AEOI head said. Touching upon the Bushehr NPP he noted that “the necessary talks on this project were held last week.” “Not very much time is left before the moment when the first stage of the functioning of this plant that will be generating 500 megawatts of electricity will begin,” Agazadeh added.

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Russia to have new comprehensive encyclopedia by 2012-13
17:00 | 02/ 03/ 2009

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NOVO-OGARYOVO, March 2 (RIA Novosti) - The 30-volume Great Russian Encyclopedia will come out in full in 2012-2013, six years ahead of schedule, the president of Russia's Academy of Sciences said on Monday.

Yury Osipov, who also heads the encyclopedia's editorial board, said the Academy had published 12 regular volumes and an additional one called "Russia" since 2002, when it was ordered by then president and current prime minister Vladimir Putin.

Osipov said an online version of the encyclopedia was also planned.

The Great Soviet Encyclopedia was published in three editions of 65, 50 and 30 volumes between 1926 and 1981.

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Russian Proton-K rocket orbits military satellite
14:36 | 28/ 02/ 2009

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MOSCOW, February 28 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's Proton-K heavy carrier rocket launched from the Baikonur space center earlier Saturday has successfully orbited a Russian military satellite, a Space Forces spokesman said.

"The separation of the satellite from the upper stage took place in a normal mode," Lt.-Col. Alexei Zolotukhin said.

The Proton-K carrier rocket was developed on the basis of the UR-500 intercontinental ballistic missile by the Salyut design bureau making part of Russia's Khrunichev State Research and Production Center. The rocket was first launched in 1968.

There have been several thousand launches of the rocket since it was adopted. There are plans to use the rocket to deliver International Space Station modules to the near-earth orbit.

Russia currently uses two launch sites for space carrier rockets and ballistic missiles tests: the Baikonur space center in the Central Asian Republic of Kazakhstan, which it has leased since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the Plesetsk space center in northwest Russia.

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Sweden proposes end to ‘asylum lottery’

By Stanley Pignal in Brussels

Published: February 28 2009 04:06 | Last updated: February 28 2009 04:06

European national governments could lose the final say on which asylum seekers they let in under a proposal to be tabled by the European Union presidency in the second half of the year.

The EU’s top court would become the ultimate arbiter on asylum claims under a plan to be tabled by Tobias Billström, who as Swedish minister of migration will lead the 27-member bloc on the issue when the Swedes take over the rotating presidency in July.

“We have to end the ‘asylum lottery’, where an asylum seeker’s chances of [being approved] depend more on the country he makes the demand in, than the merits of the case,” he said on Friday.

“The European court of justice in Luxembourg must have the final say on asylum cases to avoid this.”

The proposal is likely to face fierce resistance from both the Commission in Brussels and national capitals, which so far have devolved very little power to the EU in matters relating to immigration and asylum seekers.

Even plans for a coordinating office to help with the administration of refugees at a European level have taken several years to finalise, with funding for the first year €5m.

Human rights groups, including the UNHCR, the United Nations’ refugee agency, have in the past criticised the EU for the wide differences in how asylum seekers are treated in different parts of the bloc.

An estimated one in four asylum demands are responded to positively in countries such as Sweden and Austria, compared with about one in 30 in Slovakia or Greece, according to official figures.

Under the Swedish plan, Mr Billström said, member states would be bound by the European court’s decision, potentially forcing them to accept certain categories of refugees.

Asylum seekers posing a security risk would be excluded from the joint approach.

Even though European rules stipulate that asylum seekers should be dealt with by the country in which they arrive, the lack of internal borders means newcomers looking for protection often travel to those countries most likely to grant them leave to remain – including Sweden.

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Sweden to end ban on new nuclear power

By Robert Anderson in Stockholm and Ed Crooks in London

Published: February 5 2009 19:17 | Last updated: February 5 2009 19:17

The Swedish government will allow the construction of nuclear power stations, ending a ban imposed after a 1980 referendum.

The decision demonstrates how even environmentally conscious countries are changing their attitude to nuclear power, and now regard it as a potential solution to concerns over carbon dioxide emissions, high fossil fuel prices and dependence on imported energy sources.

Neighbouring Finland is constructing the first nuclear power plant to be built in western Europe since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and is considering proposals for more plants.

Last week, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France chose EDF, the state-controlled electricity company, to lead the project to build a second new reactor at Penly in the north, with construction starting in 2012. The first of France’s new generation of European pressurised water reactors is being built at nearby Flamanville.

However, the most ambitious plans are in the UK, which has committed to building several nuclear plants, and has attracted interest from most of Europe’s leading energy companies.

Vattenfall, Sweden’s state-owned electricity company, is in talks about possibly joining a consortium to take part in the UK programme.

Other countries that have resisted nuclear power have shown signs of weakening opposition. In Italy, which scrapped its nuclear industry in the 1980s, Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister, hopes to build reactors.

Even in Germany, where nuclear power is notoriously controversial, the Christian Democratic Union party is expected to campaign in this year’s election with a commitment to save reactors from their planned closure.

Swedes voted against nuclear power in 1980, even before Chernobyl spread radiation fallout across the Nordic region, heightening fears about the safety of the technology.

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Chinese art trader declines to pay up

By Kathrin Hille in Beijing and Georgina Adam in London

Published: March 3 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 3 2009 02:00

A Chinese art trader who identified himself as the winning bidder for two Chinese bronzes auctioned by Christie's last week in Paris said yesterday he would not pay for the works.

Cai Mingchao, head of an auction house in the southern city of Xiamen, has opened a bizarre new chapter in the saga of the heads of a rabbit and a rat that were looted from the Old Summer Palace near Beijing in 1860 and came on the block as part of Yves Saint Laurent's estate.

Christie's had said a bidder who wished to remain anonymous had offered a total of €31.49m ($40m, £28m) for the bronzes that were offered on the last day of the record-breaking €373m Yves Saint Laurent sale.

China's government, a coalition of private citizens and lawyers had denounced the auction, called for the return of the bronzes and made an unsuccessful attempt in court to block their sale.

The campaign, peppered with nationalistic rhetoric from bloggers and media and stern statements from the government, was a departure from the pattern in which entrepreneurs bought such national treasures back for the motherland. In 2007, a horse's head from the same set of 12 zodiac figures came up for auction at Sotheby's Hong Kong. But Stanley Ho, the Macao billionaire, bought the piece for about $9m before the sale and donated it to Beijing's Special Fund for Rescuing Lost Cultural Relics.

In 2006, Mr Cai paid $13m to bring home a Ming dynasty Buddha bronze.

The art trader demonstrated his patriotism yesterday by proclaiming that nothing should be paid for the artefacts. "Every Chinese would have stood up in that moment. It was just that I was given the opportunity," he said. "But I want to emphasise that this money cannot be paid."

The lost artefacts fund, an organisation that finances itself from private donations and state subsidies, said Mr Cai had taken part in the auction on its behalf. Niu Xianfeng, deputy head of the fund, said Mr Cai entered the auction after bids had reached €11m but added that the intention was not to pay.

Christie's refused to comment on whether Mr Cai was the winning bidder, nor would it say what would happen next. The auction house just said that in cases where problems emerged, it would try to mediate between seller and buyer.

However, the complications surrounding the episode mean that the heads might now be shunned by other potential bidders, and the value-boosting circumstances of the sale are just not there any more. Art market experts said Mr Cai was likely to be banned from future auctions at Christie's.

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Chinese bidder ‘won’t pay’ for looted bronzes

BEIJING, March 2 – A Chinese art collector identified himself on Monday as the winning bidder in last week’s Paris auction for two sculptures looted from Beijing in the 1800s but said that, as a patriot, he had no intention of paying.

Christie’s, which had triggered Chinese anger by holding the sale, would not say what action it would take against the bidder, only that the bronze sculptures of the heads of a rat and a rabbit would not be released until it had been paid.

Cai Mingchao, a collector and adviser to a private foundation in China that seeks to retrieve looted treasures, said he successfully bid for the items which sold for 15 million euros ($20 million) each at an auction for the art collection of late designer Yves Saint Laurent.

But Cai said the relics should not have been put up for sale as they had been stolen from Beijing’s Summer Palace, which was razed in 1860 by French and British forces.

”I think any Chinese person would have stood up at that moment. It was just that the opportunity came to me. I was merely fulfilling my responsibilities,” said Cai, who in 2006 paid more than HK$100 million ($13 million) for a gold Buddha statue at an auction in Hong Kong.

The foundation, formally called the China Fund for Recovering Cultural Artefacts Lost Overseas, says on its website (www.relicsrecovery.org) that it was set up in 2002 in Beijing by a group of academics and ”prominent people”.

A spokesman for China’s State Administration of Cultural Heritage said the government body was unaware of the news conference and stressed that the foundation was not affiliated to the government.

Kate Malin, a spokeswoman for Christie’s in Hong Kong, would not comment as to what further action the auction house would take, but said: ”If someone doesn’t pay, we try to work through the process with the buyer and the seller.

”Any lot will not be released until the outstanding amount due to Christie’s has been received and the funds are cleared,” she added.

Before the auction, France was already the target of Chinese public ire because President Nicolas Sarkozy had met the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s exiled Buddhist leader. The contention over the looted bronzes added to that anger.

A spokesman for the French Embassy in Beijing said he had not heard of Monday’s news conference and could not comment.

Some online commentators had said China should not seek to buy the sculptures, as that would add to the insult.

”Everyone knows that the related objects were plundered by the joint Anglo-French forces during the Second Opium War and are precious artefacts which have been overseas for many years,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told a news briefing last month.

Five other bronze heads looted from the Summer Palace are still unaccounted for and it is unknown if they were destroyed or in private collections.

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US and China to hold defence talks

By Kathrin Hille in Beijing

Published: March 2 2009 03:04 | Last updated: March 2 2009 03:04

The United States and China have agreed to hold a series of defence talks as the Obama administration seeks a new start in the bilateral military-to-military dialogue which had been disrupted over the past half year.

“We agreed we are going to be having high-level exchanges very soon,” US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence David Sedney said on Sunday after two days of talks in Beijing.

The agreement appeared to mark the resumption of full dialogue after Beijing suspended some exchanges last October following Washington’s announcement of US$6.5bn in arms sales to Taiwan.

Mr Sedney called his exchanges with Major-General Qian Lihua, head of the Chinese Defence Ministry’s Foreign Affairs Office, and Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian, deputy chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army, the best he had ever experienced between defence establishments of the two sides, and said they happened “very much in the context of this being a new administration.”

“Nothing has been broken off under this administration,” he said, seeking to use the change of government in Washington as a chance to leave last year’s disagreements behind.

China had not given its official account of the results of the talks. On Friday, Maj Gen Qian had warned that US-China military ties would remain “difficult” as long as Washington had not taken concrete steps to address Beijing’s concerns over US arms sales to Taiwan, the de-facto independent island over which China claims sovereignty.

But observers said China was unlikely to let the issue bog down its security relationship with the US going forward. “China understands that the Obama administration has to secure continuity from the previous administration also in this area,” said Zhang Minqian from the University of International Relations.

Mr Sedney acknowledged that the issue of Taiwan could not be sidelined in future defence talks because it was a core issue for the Chinese side. However, he emphasized both sides’ determination to look forward and cooperate in new areas and said the US welcomed China’s rise to an important role globally.

The two sides had detailed exchanges on anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, an area the US views as a key example of China taking a new role in global security issues. The People’s Liberation Army sent two warships and a supply vessels into waters off Somalia in January to protect commercial ships from pirates in its first such out of area mission. Mr Sedney praised the operation as “highly professional and highly efficient” and said there had been close coordination with US forces.

The US and China also discussed the security situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan, a new topic in bilateral defence talks.

Chinese security experts said the country was becoming increasingly responsive to expectations that it act as a ‘major power’. “But this will be a gradual process, and there will remain a gap between the US’ expectations and what China can do,” said Mr Zhang.

Despite the warm words, however, Washington remains wary over China’s rapid military rise. The US delegation repeated long-standing concerns over what it perceives as a disconnect between the country’s claim that its military strategy is purely defensive and the PLA’s rapid buildup of advanced capabilities that have started reaching far beyond its own shores.

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Troops hit by 70% rise in insurance bill

By Nicholas Timmins, Public Policy Editor

Published: February 28 2009 02:00 | Last updated: February 28 2009 02:00

The rising toll of casualties in Afghanistan and the occupation of Iraq have seen a 70 per cent increase in two years in the premiums paid by soldiers for additional death and injury cover.

AIG, which underwrites PAX, the voluntary personal accident and life insurance scheme that covers 68,000 armed forces personnel, is raising premiums by 29 per cent from April, on top of a 30 per cent increase last year.

The insurance, which covers troops at home and in war zones and, where chosen, their families, pays out anything from £10,000 to £150,000 in the event of death and up to £750,000 for total paralysis. The money comes on top of payments under the armed forces compensation scheme.

Nicola Wilton, senior vice- president for AIG UK, said claims had doubled since 2004. "The scheme has been loss-making for the past five years," she said, and any insurance product, in the long run, "has to balance claims and premiums".

AIG is not the only underwriter to offer war zone cover to troops, but it has by far the largest share of the market. The recent increases in armed forces' premiums, Ms Wilton insisted, were "completely unrelated" to the travails of its parent company in the US.

The premium increase will add £93 to the current £247 individual cost of what AIG says is the "typical" cover that many troops take out - a six-month package that provides a lower level of cover at home and a higher one on operations.

"The number of troops on operations and the frequency of their deployment" had been a key factor in rising claims and hence the need to increase premiums, Ms Wilton said.

Casualties in Iraq, where 178 troops have died and 315 have been wounded in action, have been declining. But Ministry of Defence -figures show casualties rising sharply in Afghanistan where 143 have died, 51 of them last year, along with another 235 wounded in action in 2008.

Last year's premium increase fuelled a continuing row over the adequacy of the armed forces compensation scheme. Its lump sum payments have since doubled to £570,000, with significant increases in other benefits.

Liam Fox, the Conservative defence spokesman, said that clearly "the insurance market thinks our troops are at increased risk. The onus is on the government to reduce that risk, rather than our armed forces having to pay a financial penalty."

In spite of last year's 30 per cent premium increase, the number in the armed forces choosing to take the optional cover rose 8 per cent to 68,000, according to AIG.

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Contractors suffer as Dubai payments dry up

By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi and David Fickling in,London

Published: March 3 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 3 2009 02:00

In the latest sign of the slowdown enveloping the Gulf, contractors working in Dubai are facing severe cash flow problems as state-linked developers, hampered by blocked credit markets, -fleeing investors and a tumbling local property market, fail to meet their financial commitments.

Some contractors and consultants have not been paid for up to six months, and large Dubai-affiliated developers owe billions of dollars, according to contractors, lawyers and executives.

They say large government-controlled developers in the emirate, such as Nakheel and Emaar, are among those failing to pay.

Not so long ago Dubai was an Eldorado for construction and property companies. Attracted by some of the world's most ostentatious and expensive projects, contractors from around the world flooded in to help the ambitious emirate turn itself into a modern metropolis.

Now, according to economists at National Commercial Bank, Saudi Arabia's largest lender, $250bn (€199bn, £178bn) of projects have been cancelled or delayed in the seven-state United Arab Emirates - the majority in Dubai.

"The economy just stopped in the middle of November," said Chris Cole, chief executive of WSP, a British design consultant active in the country.

Spending on two of WSP's contracts, the Dubai World Trade Centre and Meraas Developments, has been reined in since last November and the company is estimated to have set aside more than £4m to cover bad debts in the emirate.

Justin Atkinson, chief executive of Keller, a UK-based foundations specialist, said the company was still waiting to be paid for sums outstanding on the Palm Deira, an artificial island development that was scaled back late last year.

"The official line from developers is that we will be paid, but probably not this year," said the regional head of a large European property consulting firm. "That is hard to explain to headquarters. We have our own bills to pay."

Neither of Dubai's largest developers would confirm any delays in payment, saying that they would continue to honour contracts. "Payments for contractors and consultants are based on a credit cycle and set deliverables agreed with them," said an Emaar spokesman. "All payments that meet the criteria have been honoured and will continue to be cleared, in line with our -contractual agreements."

A Nakheel spokesman said that all contracts would be honoured but the -company was seeking to renegotiate some in light of falling material and -construction costs.

Payments have become harder to predict because they frequently depended on advance off-plan sales which have dried up, say some developers. "These days cash inflows are a matter of guesswork," said Abid Junaid, a director of ETA Star Properties in Dubai.

Lawyers said the room to renegotiate signed contracts was limited. "The courts and arbitration centres are getting bogged down with cases," said Graham Lovett, managing partner at law firm Clifford Chance. "The volume is such that the entire system is in danger of being clogged up with these disputes."

Saud Masud, a UBS analyst, estimates that defaults by housebuyers and residential property investors in Dubai alone could cost developers as much as $25bn over the next two years.

The federal UAE government has said it will lend $10bn to Dubai to help its state-linked companies refinance debts. However, with Dubai groaning under $80bn of debt - about $15bn of which is due this year - most of the $10bn is likely to be used to meet quasi-sovereign bond commitments, not contracting bills.

Despite the cost and time involved, some contractors are readying lawsuits. "Politically and commercially it might make sense to just keep working, but after a while it starts hurting too much, and the gloves come off," said Paul Davies, head of DentonWildeSapte's regional property practice.

"There certainly seems to be a willingness to sue the Dubai government-related companies that wasn't there before," said a partner of an international law firm in the UAE. "The argument 'You will never work in this town again' isn't as persuasive when you're facing bankruptcy."

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Gypsy vaccination scheme starts

By Guy Dinmore

Published: March 2 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 2 2009 02:00

Italy's Red Cross yesterday began its biggest vaccination programme since the second world war to immunise thousands of gypsy children in 50 or so camps around Rome. The operation began at Casilino 900, which is believed to be one of the largest gypsy settlements in Europe.

Gianni Alemanno, Rome's mayor, plans to remove almost all the camps and replace them with "maxi-camps". Non-Italian gypsies without documents, face expulsion from Italy.

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Warning over insurance premiums

By Andrew Taylor

Published: March 3 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 3 2009 02:00

Customers will face higher insurance premiums if insurers are prevented from using people's age to help them assess risk, the industry warned yesterday, writes Andrew Taylor.

The Association of British Insurers said costs were likely to increase for all customers if the government pressed ahead with plans to widen age discrimination rules to include the provision of goods and services in the forthcoming Equalities Bill.

The cost of travel insurance, for example, could double if insurers were no longer able to take people's age into account, warned the ABI. It would be unfair on other consumers if insurers were not allowed to take people's age into account when setting premiums, it said.

The average motor claim made by someone over 80 was almost 50 per cent higher than one made by someone aged 60, while the average travel claim for someone over 65 was nearly three-and-a-half times higher than for those under 50, said the ABI.

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力士の大麻検査求める…文科相、有識者委員に

　大相撲の元若麒麟が大麻取締法違反（所持）の罪で起訴されるなど相次ぐ角界の不祥事を受け、塩谷立文部科学相は２日夜、漫画家のやくみつる氏ら、日本相撲協会の生活指導部特別委員会の外部有識者委員５人と文科省で懇談、全力士を対象に大麻使用の抜き打ち検査を早期に実施するよう求めた。

　委員側は、春場所前に検査体制を整えることは可能とした。相撲協会は薬物使用禁止規定を２月に新設し、検査の準備を進めている。委員の山本浩ＮＨＫ解説主幹は懇談後、会見し「大麻問題に厳密に対応していくことを確認した」と述べた。

　塩谷氏は記者団に「（角界の）改革は簡単でないと感じたが、現在の一番の焦点は大麻。検査をできるだけ早くやることが大事だ」と強調、協会の武蔵川理事長にも会い、検査の早期実施を求める考えを示した。

　特別委は２００７年の序ノ口力士暴行死事件の後「再発防止検討委員会」として発足、今年２月にさらに広範囲に力士らの行動を律するとして名称変更した。委員と文科相との懇談ではこのほか、これまでの活動や成果についても意見交換した。

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世界の観光地満足度ランキングで日本が初のトップに--英国の旅行雑誌にて

2009/03/02

神野恵美

イギリスの旅行雑誌『ワンダーラスト(Wanderlust)』が毎年実施している「トラベル・アワード2009(Travel Award)」で、国別部門の第1位に日本が選出された。

同アワードは、トップカントリー、トップシティをはじめとする全13部門で構成され、読者投票で選出された満足度の高い世界の観光地をランキングで示したもの。今回の投票は、2007年9月から2008年11月までの間、同誌の読者を対象に行われ、読者自らの旅行経験に基づき、4つの優秀候補とその評価が投票された。

その結果、2009年の国別部門のトップに輝いたのは日本。97.42%という高い満足度を獲得し、初のトップ10入りにして、堂々の1位に選ばれた。

同誌によると、日本が評価された理由について「近代と古代が共存したユニークな文化の意外性に観光客は魅了された」と説明。また「ミシュランガイドは東京が世界一の食通都市であると評価しているとおり、日本の食文化はバラエティに富んでいるのでどんな人をも満足させることができる」と述べている。

その他、都市別部門では、1位アンティグア(グアテマラ)に続いて、京都が2位にランクインした。

国別満足度トップ10
順位 国名 満足度
1 日本 97.42%
2 ナミビア 96.21%
3 ニュージーランド 95.75%
4 ブータン 95.71%
5 シリア 95.38%
6 ペルー 95.36%
7 エクアドル 95.11%
8 ベトナム 95%
9 インドネシア 94.12%
10 ラオス 94.05%

都市別満足度トップ10
順位 都市名(国名) 満足度
1 アンティグア(グアテマラ) 97.78%
2 京都(日本) 95.56%
3 ボストン(アメリカ) 95%
4 クラクフ(ポーランド) 94.67%
5 ハバナ(キューバ) 94.29%
6 ダマスカス(シリア) 93.33%
7 ルアンパバーン(ラオス) 93%
8 クスコ(ペルー) 92.73%
9 シドニー(オーストラリア) 92.06%
10 タリン(エストニア) 91.43%

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生活保護申請、前年の１６５％　東京２３区と１７政令都市 (1/2ページ)
2009.3.3 18:09

　全国１７の政令指定都市と東京２３区が今年１月に受け付けた生活保護申請数は前年同月に比べて約６５％増えたことが分かった。産経新聞が３日時点で、各自治体の速報値をとりまとめたところ、４０市区で前年同月比約４８００件増の計１万２０６８件にのぼった。非正規労働者らが働く自動車製造などが盛んな自治体や大都市での増加が目立っている。雇用情勢の悪化で失業給付が受けられない非正規労働者の失職や、再就職が困難で生活苦に陥っている労働者の増加が背景にあるとみられる。

　１月の申請数は、政令市では前年同月より約６０％増え８７４５件。すべての政令市で前年を上回った。２３区では前年比約７５％増の３３２３件で、港区を除く２２区で増えた。

　政令市で目立ったのは、前年比約２・５倍の１０７４件と急増した名古屋市。トヨタ自動車を中心に「派遣切り」などで多くの非正規労働者が仕事を失った影響があったとみられる。市は「市外からの失業者も多く、市内の一時保護施設などは満杯状態。今後も増える可能性は高い」と話している。

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「一目で観音像のとりこ」窃盗容疑者、果物や餅お供え

2009年3月3日10時1分

　京都市東山区の臨済宗建仁寺派大本山の建仁寺で十一面観音座像が盗まれた事件で、窃盗容疑で逮捕された三重県四日市市の自販機修理・加工会社経営、阿部逸男容疑者（５９）が事件当日、寺に約２時間半とどまっていたことが２日、京都府警への取材でわかった。防犯カメラの映像などから、府警は阿部容疑者が拝観客がとぎれる機会をうかがい、犯行に及んだとみている。

　府警は、阿部容疑者が「仏像や骨董（こっとう）品が好きで、京都の寺などで開かれる骨董市に数年前から来ていた。観音座像を一目見てとりこになった」などと供述している、と説明している。

　府警によると、阿部容疑者は１月３１日午後１時２５分ごろ、拝観料を払って建仁寺に入り、同３時５０分ごろ、同寺の主要なお堂である方丈に安置されていた木造十一面観音座像に衣類をかけて盗み出した疑いがある。防犯カメラの映像などから、長時間にわたって犯行に及ぶ機会を待っていたことがわかったという。

　府警は２日、阿部容疑者の自宅を捜索。和室から仏像２１体や掛け軸３本を押収した。仏像にはバナナやミカン、餅などが供えてあった。阿部容疑者は「毎日拝んでいた」と供述しているという。同容疑者の元妻は府警に対し、「夫は病気をきっかけに仏像が好きになった」と話しているという。

　一方、阿部容疑者が昨年１２月１９日午後１１時ごろ、京都市左京区の金戒光明寺の御影堂に侵入していたことも、府警への取材でわかった。寺から通報を受けた府警川端署員が御影堂の中で、阿部容疑者を発見。同容疑者が「会社からリストラされて寺を徘徊（はいかい）していた。日中に入って、たまたま寝てしまった」と説明したことなどから、逮捕はしなかったという。御影堂には数体の仏像があったが、無事だった。

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東京地検、小沢民主党代表の公設第1秘書ら2人を逮捕＝報道
2009年 03月 3日 18:02 JST

　［東京　３日　ロイター］　国内各メディアの報道によると、東京地検特捜部は３日、政治資金規正法違反容疑で小沢一郎・民主党代表の公設第１秘書で資金管理団体「陸山会」の会計責任者、大久保隆規容疑者ら２人を逮捕した。

　共同通信によると、西松建設前社長の国沢幹雄容疑者も、同特捜部がまもなく逮捕するという。