EU fears Russia will refuse to leave
By Tony Barber in Avignon
Published: September 5 2008 16:42 | Last updated: September 5 2008 23:40
There is growing concern among European Union governments that they will be unable to persuade Russia to withdraw its forces from a “buffer zone” in Georgia, which they occupied during their military victory last month.
The concern emerged on Friday at an informal two-day meeting of EU foreign ministers in the French city of Avignon. Leaders of the 27-nation EU last Monday urged Russia to withdraw its soldiers to positions held before August 7, when Georgia began a military operation to recapture the pro-Russian separatist enclave of South Ossetia.
The Russian forces crushed the Georgians and are at present stationed in what Moscow regards as a “security zone” outside South Ossetia, whose independence – along with that of Abkhazia, a similar enclave – Moscow recognised on August 26.
Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, and other EU leaders are due in Moscow on Monday for talks.
Although they stopped short of threatening economic or diplomatic sanctions against Moscow, they said they would postpone talks on a new partnership accord as long as the Kremlin failed to act
They also intend to seal a closer relationship with Ukraine at a summit next Tuesday, though without offering Kiev an explicit promise of eventual EU membership.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, told Karel de Gucht, his Belgian counterpart, in Moscow on Wednesday that Russia would keep its forces in the buffer zone as long as there were no “international mechanisms” to provide security.
Mr Lavrov also made clear the troops would not be removed as long as Georgia refused to sign an agreement on the non-use of military force in the future.
EU diplomats said Mr Lavrov’s stance, coupled with Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, underlined how difficult it would be to resume normal relations with Moscow in the near future.
“Security and stability must be ensured with Russian co-operation. But for that to happen, Russia must show that it will honour its commitments,” said Luis Amado, Portugal’s foreign minister.
In a deliberate display of unity in the face of Russia’s actions, all EU foreign ministers except Franco Frattini of Italy travelled together to Avignon on Friday in a special high-speed train from Paris.
But the unity appeared to have its limits.
Mr Frattini was in Moscow communicating the views of Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s prime minister, who regards himself as having an especially close friendship with Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister.
Meanwhile, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s foreign minister, raised the idea of convening an international inquiry into the causes of the Georgian war, with a view to basing the EU’s future relations with both Russia and Georgia on the outcome of the probe.
EU diplomats said Mr Steinmeier was undoubtedly aware that investigators might well conclude that Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s president, bore some responsibility for the outbreak of hostilities on August 7. However, they noted that there appeared to be little enthusiasm for an inquiry in either Moscow or Tbilisi.
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A confusion of 'peacekeepers'
By Quentin Peel
Published: September 3 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 3 2008 03:00
Exactly who is fooling whom in Georgia? Russia claims to have its troops there as "peacekeepers", although they were an important party to the conflict. Now the European Union intends to send 200 civilian peace "monitors", although they will not be allowed into the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where mass expulsions of ethnic Georgians have been taking place.
Monday's decision by EU leaders in Brussels demands Russian troops return to where they were on August 7, the day when hostilities broke out in South Ossetia. At that time, the vast majority were in Russia, many in the garrison town of Vladikavkaz.
At least, that is where they were supposed to be. If they were already inside South Ossetia on August 7, then the Georgian claim they attacked Tskhinvali that night in response to a Russian invasion will be proved true. Russia maintains its tanks only entered on August 8.
The trouble is, there is not a hope in hell Russia will pull its troops out of South Ossetia now. It has recognised the territory's independence and promised to reinforce its military security. The South Ossetians have officially requested the establishment of a full-scale Russian base there.
Nor will Russia pull out many of the estimated 9,000 troops it poured into Abkhazia, the other secessionist region that has now declared independence.
The EU leaders decided to "postpone" negotiations about a new partnership and co-operation agreement with Russia until the troops are back where they were on August 7. That is what the original ceasefire agreement, negotiated by Nicolas Sarkozy, French president, with Dmitry Medvedev, his Russian counterpart, clearly stated. Mr Sarkozy flies back to Moscow on August 8 to insist on the point.
If the EU is serious, it would mean the partnership talks would have to be postponed indefinitely, if the Russian troops do not go home. Or will the EU simply allow Russia to define the terms of its disengagement?
The best Mr Sarkozy can hope for is that they pull out of the so-called "buffer zone" they have set up around South Ossetia and Abkhazia, deep inside undisputed Georgian territory. That is the only area that 200 unarmed EU monitors will be allowed near. The same is likely to be true for another 100 military monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
Yet mass ethnic cleansing seems to have been taking place in the buffer zones and secessionist territories. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that some 138,000 people have fled south from the two territories. There is no reliable information from inside South Ossetia. The numbers suggest the vast majority of ethnic Georgians have been expelled.
OSCE monitors were told last week they could not enter even the Russian buffer zone as their safety from roaming bands of Ossetian militia could not be guaranteed. "Hard to understand why, if they are supposed to be in charge," an OSCE diplomat said.
Russian officials refer to their troops as "peacekeepers". Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Vladimir Putin, Russian prime minister, said yesterday there were no "Russian troops" left in the Georgian buffer zones, only "peacekeepers". Whatever they are, they have failed to stop the ethnic cleansing.
By sending in the troops and tanks, and recognising Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence, Russia has changed the reality on the ground. Moscow insists negotiations to put monitors on their territory must be conducted with the independent governments. No one else in the OSCE or EU recognises them as independent.
As for the ceasefire's final point - that international discussions will be held "on the arrangements for security and stability in Abkhazia and South Ossetia" - Russia has simply pre-empted them by its own "arrangements". Any international negotiations seem an exercise in futility.
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Long View: We are now looking at a truly global slowdown
By John Authers, Investment Editor
Published: September 5 2008 21:07 | Last updated: September 5 2008 21:07
Navigating the market is about reconciling a series of dichotomies. At the heart of the drama of the last week, the worst for British stocks in six years, is an apparent paradox.
Friday’s US jobs data were terrible. Joblessness is at its highest in the US in almost five years. Attempts to deny that the world’s largest economy is in trouble are now futile.
But this came as the US dollar was in the ascendant. Since hitting rock bottom this year, the greenback has rallied more than 10 per cent against a trade-weighted index of currencies.
The collapse of sterling has been particularly dramatic. Worth $2.10 less than a year ago, today it is worth less than $1.80.
Explaining how the US dollar can do so well while its economy is in eclipse is critical for predicting how the market may behave during the next year.
Market movements are dictated by flows of funds. If money is flowing into a sector, for whatever reason, its prices will rise.
The latest US data have unleashed a flow of international capital in a fresh direction. But it needs to be viewed in context.
Ever since the credit crisis took hold in the summer of last year, the fall of equities has been braked somewhat by the hope that other countries had a degree of insulation against problems in the US.
The rally in the dollar began to take hold a few weeks ago when it became clear that the European economy was contracting. It had not been able to withstand the US slowdown.
Friday’s jobless figures make it harder than ever to believe that the US has engineered a “soft landing”. This means we are looking at a “worst-case scenario” – a truly global slowdown.
This will increase risk aversion. Any given bet looks less likely to make money, so investors will rush to remove those bets.
In the jargon, this is often called “deleveraging”: paying off debts. Because many hedge funds had been using a “carry trade” strategy – borrowing in currencies such as the yen or dollar, with their low interest rates, and putting money where rates were higher – cutting back on risk will involve money flowing back into the dollar.
Moreover, the flow of funds in recent years has been overwhelmingly out of the US. According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research of Boston, $391bn flowed into non-US equity funds from 2003 to 2007 compared with only $7.3bn into US funds.
Starting with such a heavy bet on the world outside the US, the logical response to the latest news is to sell the non-US investments and repatriate into the US – either in equities that produce a lot of cash, such as consumer staples, or more likely into Treasury bonds.
Hence, terrible economic news for the US had the effect of sending money gushing towards the US, and pushing up the dollar.
There is no reason to expect this to stop any time soon. International investors still tend to be based in dollars, and the process of retreating from risk will probably be positive for the dollar for a while yet.
In a further paradox, this is bad news for investors in the US. The rising dollar will in due course damage US exporters; moreover, for the long years of the dollar’s decline, their equity investments had continued to profit from what Milton Friedman called “money illusion”. The performance of US stocks, denominated in dollars, did not seem bad, while international stocks’ returns looked great.
Investors who sent their money overseas probably did not realise that they were making a bet against the dollar. But that is becoming clear. Since world stocks peaked on Hallowe’en last year, dollar-based investors have suffered losses of 31.9 per cent in the emerging markets and 25.6 per cent in the developed world outside the US, according to MSCI indices. These are much worse than the return on the S&P, which is down 18.7 per cent. With the dollar gaining, it is almost impossible for them to make money in stocks.
The opposite is true for British sterling-based investors. An e-mail from a reader asked this week at what point the fall in sterling could be called a “crisis”. Sterling, on a trade-weighted basis, has tumbled more than it did in the autumn of 1992, when it was forced out of the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, so the question makes sense.
But the answer is that we are still nowhere near a crisis. A true foreign exchange “crisis” occurs when a government is trying to defend a fixed rate. It is not clear that a floating currency can suffer a crisis. That is particularly true if, as with sterling, it starts at a wildly overvalued level that must hamper the economy. Even at $1.78 to the pound, a quick comparison of prices in New York and London makes clear that the pound has not yet dropped to fair value.
And for British investors, the sudden devaluation has been a boon. In sterling terms, the S&P 500 is down only about 5 per cent since Hallowe’en. Americans who put their money into the FTSE 100 at that time are down 31 per cent.
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Rice buries enmity on historic step in Libya
By Heba Saleh in Cairo
Published: September 5 2008 22:52 | Last updated: September 5 2008 22:52
Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, arrived in the Libyan capital Tripoli on Friday on what she described as a “historic visit” that was proof Washington had no “permanent enemies”.
“This demonstrates that when countries are prepared to make strategic changes in direction, the United States is prepared to respond,” said Ms Rice.
The US secretary of state, who arrived in the early evening, met Colonel Muammer Gaddafi and shared an iftar, the traditional meal that Muslims eat at sunset when they break their fast during Ramadan.
The highest-ranking US official to go to Libya in more than 50 years, her visit was made possible by an agreement between Libya and the US last month on establishing a fund to raise about $1bn (£566m) to settle remaining claims by victims of attacks linked to Libya, such as the bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988. The fund would also make payments to victims of a 1986 US attack on Libya.
Ms Rice was expected to use her visit to press Libya to deposit money in the compensation fund and to smooth the ground for US business to return to the oil-producing north African country. She was also expected to discuss with Col Gaddafi ways to deepen anti-terrorism co-operation between their two countries.
Officials also said that regional issues such as the conflict in Sudan were on the agenda. But beyond these practical aims the visit has vast symbolic significance because it will be taken to mean the US had finally acknowledged Libya’s return to international respectability.
This was a process that was aided first by Col Gaddafi’s decision to co-operate on the Pan Am bombing and by his announcement in 2003 that he had decided to relinquish efforts to obtain weapons of mass destruction.
“For all the bad relations that once existed between Libya and the United States, Libyans from the man on the street all the way up into the elite want better relations with the United States and, in particular, greater access to US education,” said Dirk Wandervalle, an American expert on Libyan affairs.
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India and US battle to lift nuclear ban
By Daniel Dombey in Washington and James Blitz in London
Published: September 5 2008 18:38 | Last updated: September 5 2008 18:38
The US and India were struggling Friday night to get the international community to lift a ban on nuclear trade with New Delhi immediately, leaving the fate of a high profile US-Indian civil accord in doubt.
After two days of negotiations involving 45 countries over whether to lift the ban, western diplomats said the Vienna meeting was likely to wind up Friday night without any agreement being reached to give New Delhi the exemptions it needs.
Western diplomats said that if the 45 members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group – a body that regulates the international trade in nuclear material – failed to reach agreement, they would have to decide when to re-convene for further discussion. “The prospects for an agreement look incredibly distant,” said one diplomat from a state supporting the US stance on the deal. “We don’t see this as being the end of the process but there now will have to be reflection on when the NSG should meet again and what kind of deal can be agreed.”
Friday’s difficulty in reaching an agreement makes it unlikely that the accord will come into effect before President George W. Bush leaves office.
An agreement by the NSG is essential if the US Congress is to approve the deal. Friday night’s delay means the US Congress may now run out of time to ratify the deal before it adjourns at the end of September for elections, relegating the matter to an uncertain fate under a new president.
India and the US both argue that their deal would strengthen global non-proliferation efforts and reward what they say is India’s responsible record as a de facto nuclear weapons state. However, countries such as the Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Norway and New Zealand have held out for a clear commitment to cease co-operation with Delhi in the event of a nuclear test.
There are also signs that the countries with concerns have been backed by China, following the publication this week of an opinion piece critical of the deal in the People’s Daily, the leading newspaper of the Chinese Communist party.
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US ship docks in occupied Georgian port
By Isabel Gorst in Tbilisi
Published: September 5 2008 17:29 | Last updated: September 5 2008 17:29
A US navy vessel bearing humanitarian aid for Georgia anchored on Friday off Poti, a Georgian Black Sea port still partially occupied by Russian forces.
The entrance of the US warship into Georgian waters risked provoking a fresh outburst from Russia, which has complained that the increasing presence of Nato vessels and US warships in the Black Sea upsets the balance of power in the region.
However, Andrei Nesterenko, an official at the Russian foreign ministry, said, “There is no talk of military action” in the Black Sea.
Two US vessels delivering humanitarian aid to Georgia last month avoided Poti, docking instead at Batumi, a port further south, outside the zone controlled by Russia during the conflict.
At the time Russia accused the US of smuggling arms to the Georgian coast under the guise of humanitarian aid deliveries.
An official at the US embassy in Tbilisi said the USS Mount Whitney was unloading aid at Poti for “logistical” reasons. Poti is larger than Batumi and is connected to Georgia’s east-west highway.
Russian warplanes destroyed a military base near Poti and sank several Georgian vessels in nearby waters during the conflict with Georgia over the separatist republic of South Ossetia last month.
The US and the European Union have condemned Russia’s continuing occupation of Poti as a breach of the French-brokered ceasefire agreement signed by Russia and Georgia.
Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s permanent representative at Nato, warned this week that Russia would use military methods to track US vessel movements in the Black Sea.
However, Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian defence expert, said, “I am sure Russia will not take any military action. No one wants an escalation.”
Huge capital flight from Russia and plunging Russian stock prices in the aftermath of the Georgian conflict would, in any case, diminish Moscow’s appetite for confrontation, he said.
The Mount Whitney’s arrival at Poti coincided with a visit by Dick Cheney, the US vice-president, to Ukraine, which, like Georgia, has angered Moscow by striving to join Nato.
During talks with Viktor Yushchenko, the Ukrainian president, on Friday, Mr Cheney discounted Russian opposition to the eastward expansion of the alliance.
“No outside country gets to veto,” he said.
Yushchenko has challenged Moscow by proposing to change the terms of a lease agreement under which the Russia bases its Black Sea fleet at the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol.
Serge Bagapsh, president of Georgia’s breakaway enclave of Abkhazia, has invited Russia temporarily to base its Black Sea fleet at Sukhumi on the Abkhazian coast.
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Trichet sees investor role in oil shock
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt
Published: September 5 2008 18:06 | Last updated: September 5 2008 23:44
The oil price shock that has hit global growth could have been exaggerated by financial speculation, Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, suggested for the first time on Friday.
Going further than comments by other central bankers, Mr Trichet argued it was “reasonable conjecture” that financial investors had distorted commodity markets, leading to prices above those justified by fundamental supply and demand factors.
His remarks were significant because they indicated policymakers believe this year’s peaks in oil prices were unsustainable. Benchmark oil prices hit more than $147 a barrel in July but have since dropped by $40. Further falls would help to boost growth as well as assist central banks to fight inflation.
The ECB sees higher oil prices as a big factor in explaining the slowdown in eurozone growth, hitting consumer spending as well as demand for its exports.
Adding to the gloom, Germany on Friday reported a sharper-than-expected 1.8 per cent fall in industrial production in July. Data earlier this week had shown industrial orders fell for for the eighth month in a row.
Further falls in energy prices would strengthen ECB optimism that weak eurozone growth will be followed by a “progressive recovery” later this year.
Speaking at a Centre for Financial Studies “ECB watchers” conference in Frankfurt, Mr Trichet argued that, on one “benign” view, investors could have played a helpful role in commodity markets by expanding liquidity and making price-setting processes more efficient. The volatility created “might have been the price to pay to avoid even higher volatility in the future”, he said.
But the ECB president also said that financial investors had encouraged sellers to accumulate inventories or delay production, so as to take advantage of expected higher prices. This could have exaggerated changes in prices beyond what would have been expected by fundamental economic factors.
Mr Trichet added: “If this seems to me a reasonable conjecture, I admit, though, that existing evidence does not provide uncontroversial support to the notion.”
His comments echoed arguments by Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, who said in an interview with the Financial Times last month that speculation was “importantly responsible” for the rapid move in oil prices.
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Schools look to expansion in the Gulf
By David Turner, Education Correspondent
Published: September 5 2008 23:04 | Last updated: September 5 2008 23:04
English private schools are expanding into the Gulf, seeking to capitalise on burgeoning demand from wealthy expatriates and locals and keep fees down in the UK.
Oundle School is to open an offshoot in Dubai in September next year; Wellington College is in advanced talks to open a sister academy in Bahrain in 2010; and Brighton College is “in negotiations” over a planned school in Abu Dhabi.
They follow on the heels of Repton, which became the first traditional English independent school to open a branch in the Gulf a year ago. It is expanding this month, adding a senior college to its Dubai prep. “We have stolen a march on everyone else,” says Carl Bilson, bursar at Repton.
In recent years, English private schools have sought additional sources of income by opening private schools in the Far East. Until now, however, they had shied away from the Gulf, deterred by fears that Islamic culture would make it hard to create sister schools with any resemblance to the original home model.
The business opportunity arises from the attractions of an English private school education to the growing number of expats and Middle Eastern families. Fluency in English, internationally recognised qualifications and centuries-old brands are part of their appeal.
Tradition and Englishness are also a selling point. There are already several international schools in the region. But Charles Bush, head of Oundle, says traditional English private schools have “a tremendous amount of expertise to offer”. Above all, some enjoy a reputation that could give them a head start.
Most of the schools operating abroad have to offer education in co-operation with local partners, whose quality may vary. But institutions that have expanded overseas say this can be solved by picking partners carefully. Mr Bilson of Repton says Evolvence, a Dubai-based alternative investor, is “buying our name from us. They’re buying our brand.” To protect its reputation, Repton “has acted in an advisory capacity”.
But the potential for spoiling their brand also makes some English schools wary of expanding abroad. The headmaster of one famous school told the Financial Times he had rejected the idea because, “I don’t want to damage the brand”.
Both Repton and Oundle expect to make money from their ventures, with Repton’s Mr Bilson saying he wants to do “anything that we can do” to keep a lid on UK fees.
Analysts say British schools will face tough competition from international rivals based in the US, Dubai and other countries. French schools can be popular even with English-speaking parents in the Gulf, for example, because of the comforting uniformity of French education the world over.
Harriet Plyler, of Good Schools Guide International, describes the Middle Eastern market for schools as “like the wild west. Things are growing up before your very eyes”.
Commenting on Dubai specifically – the place with the highest density of western expats – she adds: “People are moving out there so fast, and when they get there, there are simply not enough [school] spaces.”
English private schools are also late to the field compared with educational charities and companies, which have been operating in the Middle East for some years.
Nord Anglia, the education company, has “school improvement and teaching” contracts with the Abu Dhabi government for “about 20 schools”, according to Andrew Fitzmaurice, chief executive. It also does work in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and will set up its own international school in Qatar “when we find the right site”.
Mr Fitzmaurice says the Gulf is a growth area for the company because “the Gulf states are using petrodollars to create human capital and sustainable economies. For that, they need their own people to be well educated.”
WCLS, the UK education company, already has a primary school in Qatar, Compass International, which teaches an English-style syllabus. The company also sees business opportunities elsewhere in the Gulf.
But Marcel van Miert, chief executive, warns that fees at Gulf private schools will “increasingly have to be big” because of high land prices and inflation. However, Repton Dubai fees, charged in the local dirham, are still slightly lower than the UK senior school’s at current exchange rates.
UK education charities are already in the Gulf too. One of the biggest UK operators is CfBT, which has 27 Abu Dhabi school contracts.
Wellington plans foreign invasion
Wellington College has revealed ambitious plans to expand into Bahrain and across Asia, but with a twist: Anthony Seldon, the headmaster, does not want to make any money from his overseas ventures, writes David Turner.
Other schools have talked of using sister schools abroad to subsidise bursaries or lower fees at their original British premises. But Mr Seldon says: “The plan is the project will cover its own costs.” He intends to establish a school in Bahrain in 2010, and is looking to set up one school each in India and the Far East in the next few years. “If one looks at most of Britain’s unique selling points in the 21st century, what do we have left? Manufacturing is outsourced, professional services are outsourced but education clearly is one of our strongest features. We ought to be supporting this move abroad. It’s taken a few hundred years to develop this expertise.”
Wellington’s overseas schools will follow an ultra-traditional model, adhering to the Berkshire school’s traditions. Local children will have to learn that Orange is not just a fruit or a colour but the name of a Dutch prince who served (incompetently) alongside the Duke of Wellington at Waterloo – and more importantly, the name of a house at all future Wellington schools abroad. Mr Seldon argues this is not parochialism, but a good way to teach international history.
His vision is “a family of schools” at home and abroad.
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States feel debt pinch
By David Oakley
Published: September 5 2008 23:32 | Last updated: September 5 2008 23:32
Bond yields of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain widened to record levels against Germany on Friday as fears rose that these economies could face increasing problems in a deteriorating financial climate.
Yields on benchmark 10-year Portuguese, Italian and Spanish bonds rose to their widest levels against Germany since the launch of the eurozone in January 1999, while those of Greece rose to highs not seen since it joined the single currency in April 2001.
Analysts warned that these countries could run into difficulties in funding their spending programmes as their economies slow and their debt costs rise, making them less competitive in relation to Germany, Europe’s biggest economy.
Yields have fallen to four-month lows this week, although in broader terms, they are still trading at about six-year highs.
The widening bond spreads come amid growing risk aversion after a big fall in global stock markets this week and increased concerns about the financial health of the banking system. Investors typically switch into German bonds in times of stress as they are the most liquid and are considered the safest.
The fourcountries all have high levels of debt with Greece running a current account deficit of 15 per cent of gross domestic product, Portugal 11 per cent and Spain 10 per cent. Italy has a low current account deficit but it has a debt to GDP ratio of 110 per cent.
Alessandro Tentori, chief European strategist at BNP Paribas, said: “Germany is in better shape in fiscal terms than the peripheral nations, which are likely to face greater difficulties in terms of funding.”
He added this may impact on growth, slowing their economies further. Spain and Italy are already in recession, according to some analysts, while the outlook is gloomy for Greece and Portugal. Other than the four Ireland and France could also come under pressure, although France has a low current account deficit and Ireland has low debt to GDP levels.
Giuseppe Marafino, a fixed income strategist at UniCredit, said: “In terms of growth Italy and other peripheral economies could start to lag behind Germany. In a climate of increasing risk aversion, Germany is in a better position to weather any difficulties. Its bonds are likely to do better than those of the peripheral eurozone economies.”
Meyrick Chapman, fixed income strategist at UBS, added: “Funding costs are almost bound to rise for borrowers. For peripheral government issuers, this will put pressure on their economies.”
Spreads between Germany and the peripheral nations have been gradually widening this week. But they rose to record levels on Friday as concerns grow over the global economy and the health of the financial sector.
In early evening trading in London, German 10-year bond yields stood at 4.0 per cent, leaving the yield spread between Spanish bonds and Germany at 41 basis points. Portuguese bond spreads rose to 52bp, Italian spreads rose to 67bp and Greek spreads to 73bp.
Although bond yields are slightly lower than at the height of the Bear Stearns crisis in the middle of March, they are near six-year highs with many analysts forecasting that they will rise further.
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The bountiful game
By Roger Blitz
Published: September 6 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 6 2008 03:00
Late on Monday, a Real Madrid official telephoned Robinho, its Brazilian star striker, to tell him he had been sold. "You're on your way to Manchester," Robinho was told.
But when the 24 year-old arrived at the airport to meet his new employers, he was said to be confused. The welcoming party were sporting the blue of Manchester City rather than the red of United.
It may be an apocryphal story, but then again much of the reality of what happened that day in football seemed a lot stranger than fiction. Manchester City, a middling Premier League club struggling for decades in the shadow of its illustrious and infinitely more successful rival , had just announced that it was being bought for £210m by Abu Dhabi United Group, a group of investors who, it turns out, are acting for a member of the emirate's ruling family.
In a stroke, City had been transformed into the richest-backed club in the biggest league of the biggest sport in the world. Like the kid sporting shiny new boots on his first day back at school, the club was also kicking lumps out of the big boys in the playground by announcing it had broken the British transfer record, paying £32.4m for the temperamentally suspect Brazilian and giving him a salary of £160,000 a week.
This was giddying, even by the exalted standards of the Premier League, whose television reach extends to 660m homes in more than 200 countries. "This has become a club for the trillionaires," says Jon Smith, one of the longest-serving football agents in the business. "If you are a serious brand player, it's the only thing on this planet that gives you a quarter of the world's population every week."
The power of the brand is such that the super-rich club owners are now jostling with the dynasties of petrodollar-filled kingdoms. Not for the first time, the question arises: is the Premier League's money bubble full to bursting point?
It certainly looks unreal. Armed with its new-found riches, City toyed with its fiercest rival on the way to securing Robinho, mounting an audacious £30mplus bid for Tottenham Hotspur's moody but talented Dimitar Berbatov, a striker Manchester United had been trying to buy for months. United got their man in the end but City was tweaking its rivals' noses. City had not just outbid Chelsea for Robinho. Sulaiman al-Fahim, the front man for Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan, brother of Abu Dhabi's ruler, casually listed the players City would bid for in the next transfer window. Among them was Cristiano Ronaldo, United's disenchanted Portuguese maestro, who Mr al-Fahim thought would be worth £135m.
Even allowing for the frenetic pace of modern-day football deals, this week's events were breathtaking. Robinho did not even have time for a medical (and it is understood only £3m of his transfer fee has actually changed hands because the City takeover is by no means complete). Two things are clear, though. First, football's ability to court big money, even in times of hardship, is undimmed. Kevin Keegan and Alan Curbishley resigned this week as respective managers of West Ham United and Newcastle United - clubs of similar stature to Manchester City - because their owners wanted to control spending. But while these clubs tighten belts, others loosen theirs. The transfer window that has just closed saw a record £500m in deals.
Second, investor interest in the Premier League has reached a level that threatens the established order of England's footballing elite. Until Monday, Roman Abramovich, Chelsea's Russian billionaire owner, ruled the footballing transfer merry-go-round. His personal wealth, derived from energy interests in Siberia and estimated by Forbes at £11.6bn, had for five years given the associate of Vladimir Putin, Russia's prime minister, first pick of world talent. Players such as Didier Drogba, Michael Ballack and Deco were lured to west London where they received huge salaries.
Manchester United, the most valuable club in the world, was happy to compete with Chelsea for trophies. Arsenal and Liverpool, the other powerhouses in English football, made up the "big four" that for three seasons running have taken up the four prized places in Europe's Champions League. But the arrival of "ultra-rich" investors such as Abu Dhabi signals that wealthy individuals including Mr Abramovich and families such as the Glazers, Manchester United's US-based owners, are about to face competition from rivals with far greater assets at their disposal.
All of them are bent on exploiting the formidable brand of the Premier League and its clubs. "They are like diamonds," says one person close to the Abu Dhabi takeover. Premier League clubs are cherished for a perceived immunity to economic squalls, according to Dan Jones from Deloitte, the consultancy: "It's not about making yield year-on-year or a regular dividend stream - it's about making a return on capital growth."
Against this background, profitability is relegated to second place. "It requires some suspension of your normal economic belief, but football is not unique," adds Mr Jones. "People buy wine, paintings, restaurants and hotels. They don't make them a lot of money but, should they want to sell them, they make their money back and more."
Under the current three-year contract, the Premier League commands domestic TV revenues of £1.7bn from the broadcasters Sky and Setanta and £625m for overseas rights. With 90,000 hours of coverage available across 380 matches, no sporting series can touch it for its penetration in so many markets over a timespan that stretches across 10 months of the year.
The Manchester City deal demonstrates how the Premier League is floating up and away from rival leagues. Nearly 20 years ago, England's top clubs saw they were struggling against more classy and appealing leagues such as Italy's Serie A and La Liga in Spain. The creation of the Premier League in 1992 and the collective sale of TV rights changed the landscape, to the extent thatsports such as American football and US basketball, which have reached maturity in their home market, look with envy at the Premier League's global reach.
The Americans themselves have made a land grab at the Premier League. Over the past few years, overseas investors have plucked the best clubs from the hands of family interests or local British entrepreneurs and US sports franchise owners have snapped up Liverpool and Aston Villa as well as Manchester United. They are not alone. A Russian entrepreneur owns Portsmouth, an Icelandic banking consortium bought West Ham United and Abu Dhabi's investors took Manchester City from Thaksin Shinawatra, former prime minister of Thailand, who paid £81m for the club last year.
Is there money to be made in football? The American investors still think so, believing that they can bring sophisticated marketing to clubs that have global name recognition but little idea how to profit from it. But some in the business note that interest from the US has stalled as the credit squeeze has taken hold. Sovereign wealth funds with different objectives are stepping in. Mr al-Fahim says one of the objectives of the Manchester City deal is to position Abu Dhabi as a "sports and cultural hub".
Abu Dhabi can expect to be joined at the Premier League's high table by Dubai, which wants to host global sports events. Dubai's ruling family nearly bought Liverpool two years ago and remain determined to prise it from its US owners. But these are by no means going to be the only new moguls in the Premier League. Rumours have in the last year linked Manchester United and Tottenham to interest from Asia. These and other clubs can safely assume that their values shot up this week.
Fifa and Uefa, football's world and European governing bodies, fret about such concentration in wealth and the imbalance between English and continental European clubs. But the signs are that some of the latter are ready to ape rather than -disparage their English counterparts, and put themselves up for sale.
None of this inflation worries the Premier League's gatekeepers. "People said we were a bubble going to burst," says Richard Scudamore, the league's chief executive. "They said it eight years ago, six years ago, four years ago. From all the indicators we've got, we don't think interest is lessening."
Willing sellers are still to be found. Bill Kenwright, longsuffering chairman of Everton, told supporters this week he wanted a foreign investor to enable the club to compete on the pitch and in the transfer market. He has hired Keith Harris, chairman of stockbroker Seymour Pierce, to find him a billionaire.
Mr Harris expects the knock-on effects of the Manchester City deal will keep him busy. "Some of it is going to be crazy spending, but there is a bandwagon beginning to roll again," he says.
------------------------------
U.S. may take control of mortgage giants
Reuters
By Glenn Somerville and Al Yoon Reuters - Saturday, September 6 06:09 am
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. government plans to put government sponsored mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under federal control, the New York Times and Washington Post newspapers reported late Friday, in what could be the largest financial bailout in the nation's history.
(Advertisement)
The two government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) own or guarantee almost half of the country's $12 trillion (6.8 trillion pounds) in outstanding home mortgage debt.
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier on Friday that the U.S. Treasury Department is close to finalizing a plan to restructure the two companies that includes changes to their senior management.
The plan could be announced as early as this weekend, the Journal said.
U.S. Treasury spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin declined to comment on the Journal report on Friday. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac spokesmen also declined to comment. The Federal Reserve, which earlier this year gave both companies the right to borrow from its discount window if necessary, declined comment also.
The two firms would be placed in "conservatorship", the Washington Post said, citing sources familiar with the discussions.
The value of the company's common stock would be diluted but not wiped out, while the holdings of other securities, including company debt and preferred shares, would be protected by the government, the Washington Post said.
Senior Bush administration and Federal Reserve officials called in top executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Friday and told them that the government was preparing to place the two companies under federal control, officials and company executives told the New York Times.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson were present at meetings with James Lockhart, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the regulator of the two companies, and with Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd and Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron on Friday, Reuters can confirm. There were separate meetings with the two CEOs.
The executives were told they and their boards would be replaced and shareholders value diluted, but the companies would be able to continue functioning with the government generally standing behind their debt, the New York Times said.
Daniel H. Mudd, chief executive of Fannie Mae, and Richard Syron, his counterpart at Freddie Mac, are expected to step down from their posts eventually, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Earlier, McLaughlin had told Reuters the department was "making progress on our work" with Morgan Stanley, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The U.S. Treasury had hired Morgan Stanley on August 5 to advise it on whether the companies were adequately capitalized and help it determine how it would use its new powers to support the GSEs.
An emergency plan approved by Congress in late July gave Treasury the authority to offer an undetermined amount of credit to the two companies, or take an equity stake in them if they ran into trouble. The housing legislation signed into law by President George W. Bush in July requires the companies agree to a Treasury backstop.
Shares of the two government sponsored enterprises (GSEs)have plunged about 80 percent since mid-May this year as the U.S. housing market slump resulted in the two companies reporting about $14 billion in losses in the past four quarters, eroding some of their capital.
"People have priced in an equity infusion that would wipe out shareholders," said Chuck Gabriel, managing director at Washington-based consultants Capital Alpha Partners. "On the other hand, they have come to understand you wouldn't have such an event without the GSEs agreeing to it."
Financial markets have come to expect that an investment by the U.S. Treasury would explicitly back the companies' $1.6 trillion in debt, but leave their shares nearly valueless.
The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, said the plan was expected to involve the creative use of authority the Treasury won from the U.S. Congress to pump capital into the two government-sponsored enterprises if it believed it was necessary.
Instead of giving each company a big capital infusion up front, the government plans to make quarterly infusions as the companies' losses warrant, sources told the Washington Post late Friday. This would be an attempt to minimize the initial cost of the rescue, the paper said.
Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which had rebounded since August 21 on speculation a government intervention might be averted, plunged in after-hours trading in New York on Friday.
Fannie Mae stock fell 16.9 percent to $5.85, while Freddie's shares declined 7 percent to $4.74.
Analysts at Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs since mid-August have issued reports saying the companies had plenty of capital to operate for the near term, and both companies have successfully rolled over debt on schedule in the meantime. Yield spread premiums on the companies' senior debt narrowed as traders bet government funding would cut their risks.
However, the major credit rating companies since August 22 all cut their ratings on preferred stock of the two GSEs on expectations that the share price declines had cut access to capital, increasing the need for emergency financial support.
The companies never lost their access to capital markets where they raise money to support the U.S. housing market, but the biggest buyers of the debt have grown more cautious.
Foreign central banks reduced their holdings of "federal agency" debt in custody at the Federal Reserve in the past week for the seventh week in a row.
Russia has continued reducing its holdings of agency debt, Alexei Ulyukayev, first deputy chairman of Russia's central bank, said on Friday.
The U.S. Congress created Fannie Mae as a government agency in 1938, during the Great Depression, to buy government-insured mortgages from lenders, providing them fresh money to make more loans.
Fannie continued to function as a government-run agency during the 1940s and 1950s, even as it took steps toward privatization. In 1968, President Lyndon Johnson decided to turn Fannie into a shareholder-owned company.
----------------------------
apan's Nomura eyes Lehman bid: report
AFP
AFP - Saturday, September 6 05:33 am
TOKYO (AFP) - The president of Japan's biggest brokerage house Nomura Holdings said the company was considering buying a stake in troubled US investment bank Lehman Brothers, a report said Saturday.
(Advertisement)
The move would be part of a plan to spend more than 200 billion yen (1.9 billion dollars) on investment in US and European financial institutions Kenichi Watanabe said in an interview in the Yomiuri Shimbun.
Lehman "is one of the candidates in which we plan to invest," Watanabe said without elaborating.
A number of overseas banks and securities firms are said to be considering bidding for a stake in Lehman, which suffered billions of dollars in writedowns and credit losses amid the meltdown in US subprime mortgages sector.
A news report from Seoul said the state-run Korea Development Bank (KDB) had offered to buy a 25 percent stake in Lehman for more than four billion dollars.
Japan's largest banking group, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, has denied a news report that it was considering bidding for a stake in Lehman, which will report third quarter results next week.
---------------------------
Japan-led consortium buys power firm: Temasek
AFP
AFP - Friday, September 5 05:31 pm
SINGAPORE (AFP) - A Japanese-led consortium has won the bid for Singapore's largest power generation company being sold by state-linked investment firm Temasek Holdings, Temasek said Friday.
(Advertisement)
The deal is worth 3.65 billion Singapore dollars (2.5 billion US) in cash, it said.
Temasek signed a share purchase agreement with Lion Power Holdings Pte Ltd, owned by a consortium comprised of Japan's Marubeni Corp and other firms, for 100 percent sale of Temasek's wholly-owned power firm Senoko Power, a news release said.
Marubeni operates in Japan and globally across a wide range of sectors from food to power.
Lion Power will also assume 323 million Singapore dollars worth of Senoko Power's net debt as of March 31, bringing the total value of the deal to about four billion dollars, Temasek said.
The transaction is expected to be completed by next Friday.
"The Lion Power consortium partners are all established industry players with strong track records in power investments globally," said Gwendel Tung, Temasek's director of investment.
Also part of the consortium are GDF SUEZ S.A, The Kansai Electric Power Co. Inc, Kyushu Electric Power Co. Inc. and Japan Bank for International Cooperation, Temasek said.
Senoko is the second of three local power generation firms Temasek is unloading as part of efforts to liberalise the domestic energy market.
Temasek said in March that it had signed a share purchase agreement with SinoSing Power Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of China Huaneng Group, to sell Tuas Power Ltd for 4.235 billion Singapore dollars (2.96 billion US).
Temasek's third power generator is Power Seraya.
Last month Temasek reported a record profit of 18.2 billion Singapore dollars for the year to March, and said its portfolio rose in value to 185 billion Singapore dollars.
Temasek has controlling stakes in major regional firms and has invested billions of dollars in troubled US investment bank Merrill Lynch since late last year.
It is one of two Singapore government investment vehicles, along with the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation.
----------------------------
Philippine minister says BHP to continue work at mine
Reuters
Reuters - Friday, September 5 12:14 pm
MANILA (Reuters) - BHP Billiton will continue development work at a Philippine nickel project despite a long-running dispute with its local partner, the minister in charge of the mining sector said on Friday.
(Advertisement)
BHP, the world's biggest miner, has been in disagreement with unlisted local firm Asiaticus Management Corp since late last year over when to start commercial production at the Pujada site in the southern region of Mindanao.
"They have no intention of withdrawing," Lito Atienza, the secretary for environment and natural resources, told Reuters after meeting with BHP officials including Chris Campbell, BHP's chief development official for stainless steel materials, and country manager Troy Charlton.
"At this point, we can graduate to specifics and (BHP) is willing to study Asiaticus' proposal," Atienza said, declining to go into specifics. "To me, this is a significant step."
The Philippine group has accused the Australian miner of moving too slowly in developing the nickel project and has been pushing for immediate commercial production. Pujada is estimated to have 200 million tonnes of nickel ore reserves with 1.3 percent nickel.
The government, which is hoping to attract $10 billion (5.68 billion pounds) in investments to the mining sector over the next three years and is banking on BHP being a key contributor, is trying to mediate between the industry giant and Asiaticus.
BHP has scaled back operations due to the dispute and is seeking to resolve it through international arbitration.
BHP has committed to invest up to $2 billion in the mine site including a nickel processing plant and has spent nearly $3 million so far for exploration, based on latest government data.
Only around $1.7 billion has flowed into the Philippine mining sector since 2004 when the Supreme Court allowed foreign companies 100 percent ownership of local mining projects.
Asiaticus had cancelled its joint venture agreement with BHP due to the disagreement, prompting BHP to halt exploration activities in Pujada since May.
--------------------------
Lloyd's of London chairman calls for tax cuts
Reuters
Reuters - Friday, September 5 10:22 am
LONDON (Reuters) - The tax regime for Lloyd's of London must be eased if the 320-year old insurance market is to retain its international competitiveness, its chairman Lord Levene said in a speech late on Thursday.
(Advertisement)
"The tax treatment of Lloyd's in the UK must be amended for us to stay on top," Levene said.
"It is under threat from other markets, notably in offshore centres whose tax regimes are very attractive."
Lloyd's of London faces a mounting competitive threat from emerging insurance industry hubs such as Bermuda and Dublin.
Last year, several Lloyd's insurers, including Hardy Underwriting and Kiln , moved to Bermuda to take advantage of the island's lighter tax and regulatory regime.
Hardy announced its move in Dec 2007, and analysts said at the time that moving to Bermuda could halve the company's tax rate.
"(The government) now tell us that they understand the force of our argument and hope to reach a decision soon. I fear though that 'soon' may become a moveable feast, and we need a favourable decision now," said Levene.
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