Opec pushes output to record level

Opec pushes output to record level

By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London

Published: August 12 2008 18:21 | Last updated: August 12 2008 18:21

Opec last month pushed its production to the highest level in its 48-year history even as demand was slipping in the US and Europe, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

The combination of surplus supply and weaker demand has pushed oil prices to $113.50 a barrel, down 24 per cent in the past month and the lowest level since late April.

The effort was led by Saudi Arabia, which had come under increasing pressure for doing too little to compensate for lower supplies from countries outside Opec, where growth has been lacklustre as fields have aged in countries such as the UK and Mexico.

In mid-June, as oil inventories were running low, King Abdullah called a high-level international meeting in Jeddah and pledged to help reduce record prices by increasing Saudi production from 9.4m barrels a day to 9.7m b/d, the highest level in 30 years.

The market brushed aside the pledge, sceptical of whether the kingdom would make good on its promise and instead worried about supply outages in Nigeria. The oil price steadily climbed from just below $140 a barrel on the day of the meeting to $147.27 in July.

Tuesday’s preliminary data of Saudi shipments proved sceptics were both right and wrong. According to the IEA, Saudi Arabia did increase its production but not to the degree promised. In July, despite Saudi officials worrying about the impact the slowing economy and high petrol prices were already having on US driving habits, Saudi Arabia increased its output to 9.55m b/d, up 100,000, Tuesday’s report said.

The Saudi increase, which could still prove to have been more generous as new shipping data are collected, coupled with higher volumes from Iran, helped push the 13-member group’s total output to 32.8m barrels a day and the oil price to $114 a barrel.

Opec’s output in July was about 1m b/d higher than in April and significantly higher than the 31.1m b/d in the same month of last year.

Whether Saudi Arabia and Opec will continue to work to reduce prices, or revert to keeping supplies off the market now that prices have fallen, will become clearer at the cartel’s next meeting on September 9 in Vienna.

Opec’s production increase was not the only reason oil prices fell; demand curtailed by economic slowdown and high oil prices had also played a critical role, the IEA said.

The IEA cut its global oil demand growth to 790,000 barrels a day, down from July’s estimate of 890,000 b/d. Some of the demand in rich countries will be lost for ever, it noted, saying: “Even if retail prices ease, it seems unlikely that motorists who have purchased smaller cars will revert to gas-guzzling vehicles.”

But demand growth in emerging countries remained strong, with Chinese consumption rising above 8m b/d for the first time in June, hitting 8.3m b/d.

The market is split about the direction of crude oil prices, but the previous general bullish sentiment is cracking.

The IEA called it “too early to cite definitively a sea change in the market”.

---------------------------
ECB official warns of ‘protracted weakness’

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

Published: August 13 2008 02:19 | Last updated: August 13 2008 02:19

Eurozone growth could hit a period of “protracted weakness,” a senior European Central Bank official warned on Tuesday in the latest sign that the bank has abandoned hopes of any significant rebound later this year.

The comments by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, ECB executive board member, in an Italian newspaper, came ahead of Thursday’s eurozone growth figures, which are widely expected to show that gross domestic product contracted in the second quarter.

Recent economic data have shown the 15-country region being hit badly by the effects of sharply higher oil prices on global growth, on top of the fall-out from the US subprime mortgage crisis. Germany’s prospects have appeared to deteriorate particularly rapidly.

After last week’s interest rate setting meeting, Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, warned that eurozone growth in the second and third quarters would prove “particularly weak”. Significantly, he did not repeat his earlier forecast of a subsequent “progressive return to on-going moderate growth”. In a clear hint that the ECB would revise significantly its outlook, Mr Trichet said he preferred to await fresh ECB forecasts, due for release next month.

But Mr Bini Smaghi told Il Messaggero newspaper that “many indicators point to a worsening in growth expectations. There are many risks, which we flagged in the past, and which are partly materialising. We could see a phase of protracted weakness in coming quarters.”

He cited the impact of energy costs on purchasing power as one factor causing growth to slow more rapidly than expected. The recovery would depend partly on external factors, such as oil prices and the US economy, he added.

His remarks amounted to “the strongest warning to date that the euro area faces a bleak outlook for activity in the months ahead,” said Julian Callow at Barclays Capital.

Still, the ECB seems a long way off contemplating cuts in interest rates. Eurozone inflation is at a record high of 4.1 per cent and Mr Bini Smaghi warned that with the first signs of a slowdown productivity fell and unit costs would rise. “This translates into more persistent inflation. This is the reason why one cannot lower one’s guard in fighting inflation.”

Separately, Axel Weber, Germany’s Bundesbank president, told a German newspaper that the ECB had to keep fighting to ensure current levels of inflation did not become entrenched. He was also relatively upbeat about German economic prospects.

-------------------------
Saakashvili’s grip on power in doubt

By Roman Olearchyk in Tbilisi and Isabel Gorst in Moscow

Published: August 12 2008 20:02 | Last updated: August 12 2008 20:02

Georgia’s pro-western president Mikheil Saakashvili is a gambling man of sorts, notorious for betting high in Tbilisi’s passionate and cut-throat politics – and usually winning. But by pitting his country’s tiny army against mighty Russia, he may have taken one gamble too far.

Thousands of Georgians flooded on to the streets of Tbilisi on Tuesday to demonstrate their support for the president, in the face of Russian calls for his resignation. They held posters saying “We love you Misha,” the diminutive of Mikheil by which Mr Saakashvili is universally known.

However, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, made no bones about Moscow’s attitude: “Our position is that Mr Saakashvili cannot be our partner, and the best thing would be if he left office. I don’t think Russia will be in a mood to conduct negotiations or even talk with Mikheil Saakashvili.”

The fact that Russia hates him so much is a big factor in Mr Saakashvili’s favour in Georgia, but the outcome of the conflict could severely weaken his five-year domination of Georgian politics. If he is blamed for precipitating the Russian onslaught, Georgians could turn against him. What is far less certain is whether any alternative leader would be more accommodating to Moscow.

“Maybe the Russians should, indeed, topple him,” said Bella, a middle-aged Georgian woman distraught at this week’s devastation.

An international lawyer educated in Ukraine and the US, Mr Saakashvili was swept to power in Georgia after the pro-democracy Rose Revolution in 2003. In a whirlwind of change, backed by a team of youthful and passionately pro-western supporters, he revived Georgia’s moribund economy with liberal reforms. But his pro-western policy infuriated Moscow, and his hard line against the secessionists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia aggravated those conflicts.

Many poorer citizens missed out on the new wealth, and many former bureaucrats lost their jobs. Last year a broad opposition coalition accused him of monopolising power and aggravating relations with Moscow. For them, the final blow came late last year, when the president turned riot police on demonstrators.

Vulnerable, Mr Saakashvili gambled, called snap presidential elections for January, and won a fresh mandate with 53 per cent of the vote. A key tranche of his platform was a vow to lead Georgia into Nato, and restore the territorial integrity of the country.

Even if he survives, his ratings could dive. While Mr Saakashvili has nearly five more years on his term, he could step down or be removed by a snap vote, or possibly by another revolution. Anything seems possible in today’s Georgia.

Two potential challengers for Mr Saakashvili’s job – Levan Gachechiladze and Nino Burjanadze – stressed that while at war, Georgians should remain united against Russia.

Mr Gachechiladze, a former presidential contender and fierce critic of Mr Saakashvili’s autocratic style, said: “What happened with Georgia, from the Georgian side, is 100 per cent the responsibility of Saakashvili. When you know Russia is ready to do such things, [you should] try everything to prevent it.” Ms Burjanadze, a former president of the parliament, who was Mr Saakashvili’s close confidant, although she quit his election list last January, is considered to be a more likely figure to succeed him.

She was very cautious in a brief interview, saying: “I may proceed in forming my own political party sooner than expected. We need new political ideas.”

While the Russians like to paint Mr Saakashvili as the western puppet responsible for the conflict, she said: “What Russia did was not against Mr Saakashvili, but against the Georgian nation. It was punishment for Georgia’s decision to adopt western values.”

If Moscow wants regime change, any alternative to Mr Saakashvili is likely to be just as pro-western and suspicious of Russia.

The leadership contenders

Nino Burjanadze 44, a veteran of Georgian politics, served in the administration of Eduard Shevardnadze, who became president of Georgia in 1995. Ms Burjanadze later turned against Mr Shevardnadze, joining Mikheil Saakashvili in the pro-democracy movement. She served as speaker of parliament for much of his presidency. She supports Tbilisi’s strong stance against Russia and is pro-Nato and EU integration.

Despite being an ally of Mr Saakashvili, Ms Burjanadze is seen as a future opponent who has her eyes on the presidency.

Levan Gachechiladze, 44, a businessman, was until recently a big player in Georgia’s wine business. He served as aide to Mr Saakashvili when he was mayor of Tbilisi, and supported his rise to power through the “Rose Revolution”.

But he later turned against him, accusing the president of straining relations with Russia.

Mr Gachechiladze stood in presidential elections in January aiming to oust Mr Saakashvili and turn Georgia’s government from presidential system to a parliamentary one. His hopes faded after Mr Saakashvili won a fresh mandate.

-----------------------
Egypt resolves project dispute

By Heba Saleh in Cairo

Published: August 13 2008 04:11 | Last updated: August 13 2008 04:11

Agrium, the Canadian fertiliser producer, has settled its dispute with Egypt over the cancellation of a $1.4bn project by the company to build a nitrogen plant on the country’s Mediterranean coast.

The project, named EAgrium, had been awarded all the relevant permits but was scrapped after local people protested fearing its impact on the environment.

The case, followed closely by foreign investors and international banks, has been seen as a test of Egypt’s resolve to maintain a business friendly atmosphere conducive to foreign investment.

Under the agreement, state-owned MISR Oil Processing Company will acquire the EAgrium project through a share swap. EAgrium shareholders will get a 26 per cent stake of the combined entity.

Agrium will not be required to contribute any fresh equity to the project beyond the $280m it had already committed to the cancelled venture. MOPCO will arrange a $1.1bn project financing facility to fund an expansion in production.

“The relatively quick resolution of the dispute should send a signal, from a regulatory and political risk standpoint, that foreign investment environment in Egypt is still favourable,” said EFG-Hermes, the Egypt-based private investment bank.

-------------------------
Georgia gets the jitters as Russia outlines its requirements
12.08.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/conflicts/106080-georgia_russia-0

Presidents of Russia and France, Dmitry Medvedev and Nicolas Sarkozy, have come to an agreement on the regulation of the conflict in South Ossetia. The agreement is based on six principles, Interfax reports.

Medvedev described the six principles during a joint press conference with his French counterpart.

“The first principle – not to use force. The second – to definitively stop all military actions. The third – to provide free access to humanitarian aid. The fourth – Georgia’s armed forces must return to the places of their permanent deployment. The fifth – Russia’s armed forces will be withdrawn to the positions preceding the beginning of the military actions. The sixth – the start of the international discussion of issues of the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by means of guaranteeing their solid security,” Medveded said.

When asked why Russia decided to halt military actions in S. Ossetia today, Medvedev said: “The operation, which the Russian forces were conducting, has brought its results. That is why we have ended it.”

“It was supposed to be done today, not yesterday or tomorrow. We herewith made a temporal decision to cease fire until the problem is entirely solved within the framework of the principles which we have just named,” the Russian president said.

Dmitry Medvedev strongly refuted statements from the Georgian administration which said that Georgia had ceased fire in the conflict zone two days ago.

“As for the affirmation of the Georgian president, who said that Georgia ceased fire in the conflict zone two days ago – these are lies.” Medvedev said. “The Georgian forces were shelling peacemakers. Unfortunately, there were victims yesterday. In other words, there was no cease fire with Georgia,” he added.

“This is what differs those hell-raisers from normal people: it is very hard to stop them when they smell blood,” Medvedev said.

Russia ’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, emphasized that the Georgian troops must return to their barracks.

“All the rest will have no point without this condition. South Ossetian residents will hardly understand that they can return and restore their homes without this condition. If Georgia does not accept this condition, we will be forced to take other measures not to let the current situation, which has been formed as a result of Georgia’s aggression, repeat itself. This is the absolute condition for everything else,” Lavrov said.

“The fact that the president of France has completely agreed with that is important. We hope that the president of France will inform the Georgian administration of these principles,” the Russian foreign minister said.

In the meantime, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili goes into a tail-spin as he senses Russia’s anger. He announced Tuesday that Georgia was going to pull out from the Commonwealth of Independent States, a post-Soviet organization which unites nearly all ex-Soviet republics. Saakashvili made the announcement on a meeting in front of the building of the Georgian parliament in the center of Tbilisi.

“We are bidding final farewell to the Soviet Union. The USSR will never come back here. We urge Ukraine and other members of the CIS to leave the organization which Russia administers,” ITAR-TASS quoted the Georgian president as saying.

In addition, Saakashvili stated that he declared the Russian troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia occupation troops.

---------------------------
Western media blatantly misinterpret conflict in South Ossetia
12.08.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/ussr/106079-western_media_ossetia-0

Western media have been paying a lot of attention to the situation with South Ossetia recently. Their opinion is especially important for Russia as a country directly involved in the conflict. The position of the Western media mirrors the public opinion in the West. US and British media outlets lay the entire blame for the conflict on Russia and Ossetian “separatists”, whereas German and Italian publications tend to take a more reasonable stance in their reports.

German experts see the reason of the current standoff in Mikhail Saakashvili’s stay at power. It is an open secret that Saakashvili’s prime goal in politics is to restore Georgia’s territorial integrity.

The majority of Western experts believe that if Saakashvili had agreed to return Georgia under Moscow’s guardianship, the Kremlin would have most likely declined its protectorate over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. However, Saakashvili intends to take Georgia to NATO and make it a country of oil and gas transit bypassing Russia.

The New York Times wrote that the reason of the conflict lies in provocations (bombardments) on the border. According to the logic of US analysts, it was the “separatists” who started the attacks first, whereas Saakashvili was innocent.

British observers from The Independent see the reason of the current bloodshed in Georgia’s wish to end tedious talks and start real actions instead.

Western journalists believe that Moscow simply used the fact of South Ossetian residents holding Russian passports as a pretext for the military interference. Some Russophobic publications even wrote that Russia considers the region the stronghold to reinstate its power on the territory of the former Soviet Union.

The New York Times wrote that Saakashvili stood up against Russia’s predominant role in the region.

The Times believes that the friction between Russia and Georgia intensified in April when Vladimir Putin decided to strengthen economic ties with South Ossetia and Abkhazia. US journalists were very concerned about the fact that Russia sent its fighter jets to patrol the S. Ossetian territory during Condoleezza Rice’s visit to Georgia.

The Wall Street Journal published slanderous information in an article shadowing Russian peacemakers in South Ossetia. The paper wrote that the Russian peacemakers were supposedly persecuting ethnic Georgians, making them vote at separatist elections. The newspaper also believes that Russia has chosen this way to take revenge on the West and to finally annex the two enclaves.

Foreign journalists have to acknowledge that Saakashvili has created an external enemy with his attack on S. Ossetia.

Unlike other Western publications, Italy’s La Repubblica does not declare South Ossetia a separatist state and tries to analyze arguments from both sides.

Latvia ’s Chas reminded that the conflict started after Georgia’s aggressive attack on Ossetian positions at night of August 2. The newspaper wrote that the conflict of 1989-1992 unfolded according to the same scenario. Latvian analysts believe that several Western countries and Ukraine destabilized the situation with their arms shipments to Georgia, which subsequently led to Saakashvili’s decision to attack Ossetia.

Many Western journalists think that the current conflict can also be described as a conflict between Russia and the West. German experts from Frankfurter Rundschau analyzed the roots of the Georgian-Ossetian standoff. They wrote that the conflict originally appeared during the Soviet times. When Georgia declared independence in 1991, Ossetia asked for its own authority. Georgia responded with an attack. Almost 2,000 people were killed in the war that lasted for 18 months. South Ossetia has been seeking Russia’s support since then, the newspaper wrote.

Die Welt wrote that many common Germans consider the events in South Ossetia a game that the USA launched on the threshold of the Beijing Olympics. German people refer to Saakashvili as an American servant. The majority of Germans support Russia’s actions in the standoff, the newspaper wrote.

German readers believe that George W. Bush can not cancel his plans to encircle Russia and to keep the USA’s status of the only superpower on the globe. The Germans urge the world to turn its back to the USA.

The Economist wrote that Saakashvili does not have the reputation of an immaculate politician in Europe. The defeat of the Georgian opposition in November 2007 struck a serious blow on the international image of Georgia.

The Wall Street Journal continues its journalistic insanity by claiming that it would be impossible to end the conflict without the interference of the West. The West has to do something to stop Russia’s aggression against the Western ally, the newspaper wrote.

The Washington Post wrote that the West can not maintain aloofness at this point because Georgia, as a staunch US ally, may eventually undermine USA’s prestige.

Sergei Balmasov
Pravda.ru

---------------------------
Indian Origin of Egyptian Civilization
12.08.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106074-Indian_Origin_Egyptian_Civiliza-0

By Babu G. Ranganathan

The ancient Egyptians in their writings described that they had come "from the south, from a land across the Great Sea", a land which they called "Punt". Some have said "Punt" refers to ancient Somalia but this cannot be for several reasons. Somalia is not separated from Africa by a great sea and the description of the animals and plants given by the ancient Egyptians concerning the land of Punt match exactly with that of the southwestern coast of India (known as Malabar).

There is, in fact, considerable archaeological and anthropological evidence that ancient India was the source of ancient Egyptian civilization. The ancient black Indians, known as "Dravidians", (who in ancient times were also known by the Greeks and Egyptians as "Ethiopians") built and laid out ancient Egyptian civilization and, no doubt, in the process also mixed with their black brethren in Africa. The ancient Egyptians, themselves, admitted in their writings that they received their civilization and culture from the Ethiopians, another black "race".

In ancient times there were known to be two types of Ethiopians, Western Ethiopians, in Africa, (who were black with wooly hair and fine features) and their brethren, the Eastern Ethiopians, of India, who also were black with fine features but possessed straight hair. Both Western and Eastern Ethiopians were descended from the biblical Cush, one of the sons of Ham. The Dravidians most likely emigrated from Africa to India and, later, many returned to Africa where they developed ancient Egyptian culture and civilization. An excellent website offering substantial scholarship and historical documentation and evidence that ancient India was the source of Egypt's ancient culture and civilization is "India and Egypt" (http://www.hinduwisdom.info/India_and_Egypt.htm).

Before the Aryans (a Caucasian race who were barbaric and illiterate) invaded India, India was composed mainly of various black "races" (the Dravidians, the Veddoids, also known as Australoids, and the Negrito proples) who built the ancient Indus Valley civilization, one of the world's four earliest cradles of civilization. Today, the majority of India's population is a mixture of both Indo-Aryan and Dravidian with pure Aryans mainly in the extreme North and pure Dravidians mainly in the extreme South. The Veddoids mainly live in the hill regions of India and the Negritos mainly live off coast in the Andaman and Nicobar islands.

India contributed tremendously to Western civilization. Many don't realize that Western mathematics originated in India. The so-called "Arabic" numerals were borrowed by the Arabs from the Indians. Because the Europeans borrowed their mathematics from the Arabs they became known as Arabic numerals, but they originated in India. Without the decimal system that India created and which was borrowed by the West, via the Arabs, Western science and technology would not have been possible. The ancient Roman numerals would not have sufficed. The Arabs borrowed much of their sciences and mathematics from India and transmitted them to the West. More and more textbooks on mathematics now are mentioning India as the original source of Western mathematics.

Today Egypt is referred to as an Arab nation, but this is only because the Arabs conquered Egypt centuries ago and imposed upon the original people their Arab language, culture and Moslem religion. Many modern Egyptians of today are really the descendants of Arab, Persian, Greek, and other non-African peoples that entered into Egypt over the many centuries. The ancient or original Egyptians, however, were of African or Black (Negroid) descent, and this is still mostly true of the bulk of Egypt's rural population, especially in the south. Long before the Arabs invaded and conquered Egypt the famous and ancient Greek historian Herodotus (who is known as the Father of History) visited Egypt and wrote concerning the Egyptians: "They have burnt skin, flat noses, thick lips, and wooly hair" (Herodotus, Book II, p. 100, translated by George Rawlinson, New York: Tudor, 1928). Readers may wish to obtain the book "Return To Glory" (http://truthcentric.com/). The book, written by white author and professional speaker Joel F. Freeman, discusses the historical and archaeological evidences for ancient black Egyptian civilization.

It is often asked how all the varieties of humans could have descended Adam and Eve and, particularly, from Noah's three sons Ham, Shem, and Japheth. Obviously, Noah and his three sons Ham, Shem, and Japeth each carried the genes for producing several races since ultimately all the races of mankind had descended from them. Genetically, it was possible for Noah and his three sons to carry the genes for producing different races just as it is genetically possible today, for example, for a person of European origin to carry genes for producing children with different color hair. The principle is the same. Although you and I today may not possess genes for producing different races of people, Noah and his three sons Ham, Shem, and Japeth did possess such genes.

Contrary to popular belief by some, black skin is not a curse. Ham (which means "black") was given that name by his father Noah before there was any curse pronounced by Noah. Furthermore, Noah had never cursed Ham himself but, rather, Ham's son Canaan. And even that curse wasn't eternal or perpetual because the Bible tells us that a curse lasts for only a few generations. A more comprehensive treatment of this subject may be found in my article "Negro Slavery and The Myth of Ham's Curse" at www.religionscience.com.

Black skin protects from the harmful effects of ultraviolet light. In fact, all human skin color is brown. The skin pigment that gives color to all skin is melanin which is brown. Whites have the least amount of melanin in their skin and that's why they appear "white". Only albinos (those born with no melanin because of genetic defect and mutation) are purely white and in most dander from harmful effects of the Sun's rays. Instead of black skin being a "curse" it is a healthful blessing for those living in year round hot climates.

We are all from the same parents, created equally in God's image, and in Christ equally His children and whatever we possess and whatever good and progress any in the human race have done or accomplished is by the Creator's undeserving free grace, for His rightful glory and for our benefit and the benefit of others.

The author, Babu G. Ranganathan, has his B.A. with concentrations in theology and biology and has been recognized for his writings on religion and science in the 24th edition of Marquis "Who's Who In The East". The author's website may be accessed at www.religionscience.com .

-------------------------
The message from Moscow: Resurgent Russia bids to establish a new status quo

By Charles Clover

Published: August 12 2008 20:04 | Last updated: August 12 2008 20:04

The stretch of highway on Tuesday between Georgia’s capital of Tbilisi and the city of Gori, close to the front lines, told the unhappy story of a once-proud army’s demise.

Dozens of vehicles lay stranded, seemingly abandoned as panic gripped the retreating Georgian soldiers during the night. Equipment, including machine guns, was left in the vehicles and strewn along the road. There were few signs of fighting. Only one vehicle had been hit by enemy fire: an armoured personnel carrier was twisted and blackened, its turret tossed into a nearby field.

The rest of the destruction – two heavy trucks that had crashed into each other head-on, several tanks run into ditches and abandoned, tens of trucks askew in the road, doors swinging – was caused by elemental fear. The soldiers riding in them evidently knew that any military vehicle on the road was fair game for the dreaded Russian aviatsia. Walking back to Tbilisi was preferable to death.

It was the humiliating end of a spectacularly ill-conceived military adventure by Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s president. He fed the panic on Tuesday by announcing on television – falsely, it turned out – that Russian troops were marching on the capital and ordered all his units to retreat.

When Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, announced the cessation of hostilities on Tuesday, Russia was in command of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, had destroyed the Georgian military’s ability to fight and seemed intent on ousting Mr Saakashvili, with a fair chance of success.

The week saw unprecedented risk-taking by both the Georgian and Russian governments, each seeking to rewrite the rules on what they could get away with. Mr Saakashvili gambled on an offensive against the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia but, instead of a quick and surgical strike, it turned into a botched and bloody mess on Thursday night as Georgian troops laid siege to the town of Tskhinvali, bombarding it and killing as many as 2,000 – though Georgia claims Russia was to blame for part of this carnage.

The Kremlin also took a gamble when it sent the 58th army across the border to attack an American-backed state. Even the USSR’s invasions of Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan, the only precedents for such a war, were launched against countries solidly within Moscow’s sphere of influence. Georgia is different: its pro-western government has close links to Washington, a Harvard-educated president and more than 100 US military advisers. In terms of brazen disregard for the global status quo, the operation has few parallels.

But while Georgia gambled and lost, Russia’s calculations seem, so far, to have succeeded.

In attacking an American ally that was being considered for Nato membership – and getting away with it – the Kremlin has demonstrated that Russia is the dominant power in its region. “Historically Russia was and will remain the guarantor of security for the peoples of the Caucasus,” said Mr Medvedev last week.

It appears that Russia suddenly belongs to the elite club of countries that can write their own rules. Just as the US was able to ignore widespread criticism of its invasion of Iraq on a false pretext – Saddam Hussein’s phantom weapons of mass destruction – Russia’s leaders have been able to ignore international pressure over a war that they themselves helped to provoke by arming and supporting the South Ossetian rebels.

“Russia is claiming a whole new role, and it will have repercussions everywhere,” says Dmitri Trenin, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center think-tank, identifying the recent decisions by Nato to begin membership discussions with Ukraine and Georgia, as well as US plans for an anti-missile system based in eastern Europe, as the key provocations. “Russia will start taking on the US around the world more actively. This attitude wasn’t there a month ago – we’re in a different environment now. Russia wants to assert regional hegemony.”

Few doubt that Georgia is the first in a series of moves to re-establish Moscow’s control over the former Soviet Union. Nato membership for Georgia or Ukraine, actively considered earlier this year, is now highly unlikely.

Having established the precedent of defending Russian citizens by the use of military force – South Ossetians have been issued with Russian passports for two years – the Kremlin could put the same divide-and-rule techniques to use in Crimea, the province of Ukraine that is dominated by ethnic Russians, in ethnically Russian northern Kazakhstan, or in Baltic states with large Russian minorities. It will almost certainly seek to remove Mr Saakashvili, viewed in Moscow as an American stooge, and replace him with a pro-Russian figure. Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-western president of Ukraine, will take note.

The Kremlin has recently sought to confront Washington elsewhere, building links with anti-US regimes such as Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela and Raúl Castro’s Cuba, while deepening its relationship with China as a counterweight to Nato. The two countries signed a milestone border demarcation agreement last month.

In the face of this, American pressure on Russia has been ineffective. Moscow seems to have gauged correctly that Washington would not react to its invasion of Georgia – tied down as it is by two ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is not clear that the “consequences” threatened by Dick Cheney, US vice-president, will ever come to pass.

Many believe the Georgian government is also at fault in the war for attacking South Ossetia first. “I think the US is embarrassed by Saakashvili going beyond what the US thought was wise policy. Saakashvili tried to put them in front of a fait accompli. But his operation was a disaster,” says Mr Trenin. The European response to the Georgia crisis has been nuanced and critical of Georgia as well as of Russia, showing a widening gap between American perceptions of Russia and those of Europeans, who oppose the confrontational US policies and prefer not to antagonise Moscow.

“A lot of people in Europe will be telling the Americans: ‘We have been saying you can’t trust this Georgian government, they are like kids playing in a sandbox with matches and they got burned very badly. There is no sense in going to war with Russia over this,’” says Mr Trenin.

Natalia Leshchenko of Global Insight, a think-tank, says: “The EU members are of two minds about what position the EU should take towards Russia in the situation. The new members, the Baltic states and Poland, were quick to issue a demand to impose harder visa regulations on Russia and also suspend talks on the Partnership and Co-operation Agreement [between Russia and the European Union], which is still not in place. The older members of the EU, in the meantime, see little point in the suspension of dialogue with Russia.”

In other words, Moscow has achieved a stunning military victory, at a surprisingly low cost to its international position. “The US is in a position of losing an ally and there is nothing they can do, unless the Russians commit some blunder like large-scale bombing of Tbilisi or sending ground troops against Gori,” says Mr Trenin, referring to the Georgian city south of South Ossetia. “Then the US would have a justification to act. But as it stands they do not.”

Such brazenness would have been unthinkable only a few years ago, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. But Russia has undergone a startling transformation over the past eight years under Vladimir Putin, who stepped down earlier this year as president to become prime minister. The pro-western liberalism of the 1990s has been discredited and the symbols the government uses to define itself are increasingly those of empire – the orthodox cross of Tsarist imperial Russia and the Red Star of the Soviet Union. “Patriotism” abounds as a loosely defined state ideology, nurtured in an increasingly state-controlled media.

In the 1990s, the Kremlin was far more vulnerable to international pressure, beholden to international creditors and eager to be included in “the west”, with all the moral obligations that such a commitment entails. Now, Russia is economically self-reliant, with the third-largest foreign currency reserves in the world and a huge trade surplus fuelled by oil and gas.

Meanwhile, the country’s relationship with the west has become more ambivalent, with many in Russia believing – like the 19th century Slavophile movement that flourished in the salons of imperial St Petersburg – that Russia has a special mission of its own and need not emulate the west.

There has also been a transformation in the Russian military under Mr Putin, who began his presidency at the nadir of Russia’s warmaking capabilities: the disastrous accidental sinking of the submarine, Kursk, in 2000 as a result of a malfunctioning torpedo. The Kursk catastrophe showed how severe the neglect of the military had become, and the Kremlin has since made the army a priority. A few years ago, an invasion of Georgia would simply have been a practical impossibility for an army crippled and demoralised by the agonising campaigns in Chechnya and lack of funds.

The true cost to Russia’s military of the Georgian campaign is not known, but it appeared to be a textbook example of modern warfare. “The Russians are clearly using the model of the US campaign in Yugoslavia in 1999,” says Mr Trenin. The Kremlin used high-altitude bombing to hammer the Georgian military into withdrawing, much as the US Air Force did to force the Serbs out of Kosovo.

Russia is clearly hoping that handing Mr Saakashvili a major military defeat will turn public opinion decisively against him and that the Georgian people will do the rest of the work in ousting him. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said on Tuesday that Russia was not actively trying to overthrow Mr Saakashvili, as the Georgian president alleged publicly in a recent television interview, but would like to see him resign. “It would be best if he left,” Mr Lavrov told a news conference, “We have no trust in the current Georgian leadership.”

Georgians, who initially rallied around Mr Saakashvili and are still united in their hatred for Moscow, are increasingly questioning their president’s judgment. Although 150,000 cheered the president outside Georgia’s parliament on Tuesday, grumbling can be heard everywhere. “Why did we go to war without weapons? Why did we go to war without anti-aircraft systems? Who needed this war?” said Timur Goldelashvili, a resident of the town of Gori, on Tuesday.

Only hours after the Russian ceasefire came into effect, there were widespread Georgian media reports that Nino Burjanadze, a former prime minister who recently fell out with Mr Saakashvili, was hinting that she intended to challenge him.

“This is not the time to make political attacks ... with Russian tanks only a few kilometres from our capital,” she said. “There will be time for determining responsibility and guilt later on.”

-----------------------------
Bank of England clears way for rate cuts

By Peter Garnham

Published: August 13 2008 11:20 | Last updated: August 13 2008 11:20

The pound plummeted to its lowest level in 21 months against the dollar on Wednesday after the Bank of England delivered a gloomy assessment of the UK economy and opened the way for interest rate cuts.

In its quarterly inflation report, the Bank said the outlook for UK growth was “noticeably weaker” and that second quarter GDP estimates were likely to be revised lower.

Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, warned the coming year was going to be difficult and that there was “bound to be a quarter or two” of economic contraction.

It was the Bank’s comments on inflation that really moved the currency markets, however.

The Bank said it expected consumer price inflation to remain elevated, rising to 5 per cent in the coming months, but said it believed it would fall below its 2 per-cent target level in two years’ time.

This prediction was well below forecasts, prompting futures markets to move aggressively to bring forward the timing of cuts in UK interest rates, which currently stand at 5 per cent, and currency traders to sell the pound.

Analysts said the Bank of England, which has been reluctant to cut interest rates due to rising inflationary pressure, had effectively signalled an an easing monetary policy bias.

David Bloom at HSBC said following policy shifts that have seen New Zealand and Australia move to an easing bias in recent weeks, the Bank of England had provided further evidence that global central bank’s focus was shifting away from worries about rising inflationary pressures to concerns over growth.

“Inflation is yesterday’s story and UK growth is falling to pieces,” he said. “The pound is going to get absolutely thrashed.”

James Knightley at ING Financial Markets said he remained very downbeat on the UK’s prospects, with the consumer sector hit by rising unemployment, negative real wage growth and falling asset values, while the credit crunch and slowing profit growth was also hurting the corporate sector.

He said he expected the UK to enter a technical recession, which coupled with a downturn in commodity prices should act as a major drag on inflation.

“With wage pressures remaining benign, we see inflation significantly undershooting the Bank’s target late next year, which could pave the way for very aggressive policy easing,” said Mr Knightley.

“Our base case remains for rates to be cut to 3.5 per cent by the third quarter next year.”

The pound, which broke down through $1.90 against the dollar for the first time since November 2006 on Tuesday, fell further, dropping 0.9 per cent to $1.8780.

The pound also lost 0.8 per cent to £0.7927 against the euro and fell 1.1 per cent to Y204.87 against the yen.

Meanwhile, the dollar was little changed after hitting a six-month high against the euro on Tuesday as investors paused for breath after its recent sharp rally.

The dollar has risen more than 4 per cent against the euro since the beginning of last week amid a growing realisation that the US economy was not deteriorating as quickly as others across the globe.

However, analysts said after such a strong move, some consolidation was to be expected.

The dollar was little changed at $1.4899 against the euro, eased 0.2 per cent to Y109.03 against the yen but advanced 0.1 per cent to SFr1.0887 against the Swiss franc.

-----------------------
八千代銀と東日本銀、初の四半期赤字に

　東京の地方銀行、八千代銀行と東日本銀行の2行は13日、2008年4―6月期連結決算が最終赤字に転落したと発表した。両行が四半期ベースの業績開示を始めた04年度以降、最終赤字は初めて。不動産や建設業などで取引先の経営悪化が相次ぎ、与信コストが大幅に増加した。両行は同日、9月中間期と09年 3月期決算の業績予想も下方修正した。

　八千代銀の最終赤字は6億円。9月中間期の最終損益予想は33億円の黒字から29億円の赤字に修正した。中間赤字は8年ぶり。同行の融資残高の約3分の 1を占める不動産業で経営悪化が相次ぎ、貸倒引当金を積み増した。09年3月期連結最終利益の予想も64億円から18億円に下方修正した。

　東日本銀の最終赤字は8億円。「7月以降に不動産業や建設業で取引先の経営悪化が続いた」（経営企画部）という。9月中間期と09年3月期の最終利益予想もそれぞれ11億円と53億円に下方修正した。

------------------------
海外への所得流出、年率換算で最大の28兆円に　4-6月ＧＤＰ

　4―6月期のＧＤＰ統計では、資源高などの影響で日本から海外への所得流出が続いていることも明らかになった。所得流出の規模を示す実質の「交易損失」は年率換算で約28兆円。1―3月期の約26兆円を上回り、現在のＧＤＰ統計を採用した1994年以降、過去最大の損失を記録した。

　製品の輸出価格が資源の輸入価格を相対的に上回れば、海外から日本への所得流入（交易利得）が発生する。交易損失はその逆で、日本は資源高や円高の影響で損失が拡大している。

　4―6月期は輸入価格が前年同期比9.9％上昇した一方、輸出価格が3.8％下落。交易条件が大幅に悪化し、所得流出の規模が拡大した。ＧＤＰに対する交易損失の比率は5％と過去最悪。先進国の中でも悪化の度合いが際立つ。

-------------------------
１―６月の経常黒字、３年ぶり減　輸出が減速

　財務省が13日発表した2008年上半期（1―6月）の国際収支速報によると、海外とのモノやサービス、投資などの取引を示す経常収支の黒字額は10兆 4558億円となり、前年同期に比べ15.9％減少した。輸出が減速する一方で、輸入額が原油高の影響で膨らみ、貿易収支の黒字額が過去最少となったのが主因だ。半期ベースで黒字額が減少に転じたのは05年上半期以来、6期ぶり。

　貿易黒字は4期ぶりに減少。原油価格が前年同期比65.9％上昇したことなどから、輸入額が11.6％増加。過去最大の36兆3182億円となった。一方、輸出は40兆824億円。13期連続で増加となったものの、このところ2ケタ台が続いていた伸び率は4.4％にとどまった。

　旅行や輸送などの動向を示すサービス収支は1兆1123億円の赤字で、赤字幅は前年同期に比べ0.2％減少した。一方、企業が海外投資から受け取る利子や配当などを示す所得収支の黒字額は8兆5371億円となり、過去最大を記録。貿易より投資で稼ぐ構図が浮き彫りになった。

--------------------------
4-6月実質ＧＤＰ、年率マイナス2.4％　１年ぶり減

　内閣府が13日発表した4―6月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）速報値は、物価変動の影響を除いた実質で前期比0.6％減、年率換算で2.4％減となり1年（4四半期）ぶりのマイナス成長に転じた。資源・食料価格の高騰や米経済の減速が響いた。個人消費を中心に内需が落ち込み、輸出の減少で外需も振るわなかった。日本経済は景気後退局面に入った公算が大きく、当面は厳しい状態が続きそうだ。

　日経グループのＱＵＩＣＫが民間調査機関に聞いた「コンセンサス・マクロ」（経済予測）によると、実質成長率の平均予測は年率でマイナス2.3％。実績は事前の予測とほぼ同じだった。景気後退局面にあった2001年7―9月期（マイナス1.1％）以来の大幅なマイナス成長となった。

-----------------------
邦銀、海外市場で存在感　協調融資でも大型案件

　大手邦銀は欧米金融機関への相次ぐ出資だけでなく、本業の融資でも世界的に存在感を高めている。欧米勢が貸し出しに慎重になった結果生じた信用収縮を、邦銀が一部「補完」しているといえる。

　調査会社のトムソン・ロイターによると、08年1―6月期の国際的な協調融資の組成額でメガ銀は6―8位に並び、10位以下だった前年から躍進した。米シティグループなどサブプライム問題で巨額損失を計上した欧米金融機関が軒並みシェアを落としたのとは対照的だ。

------------------------
三菱ＵＦＪ証券、印タタキャピタルと業務提携

　三菱ＵＦＪ証券はインドの大手金融会社、タタキャピタルと証券業務で提携する。三菱ＵＦＪ証券の顧客にタタ経由でインド株の売買を取り次ぐほか、Ｍ＆Ａ（合併・買収）など投資銀行業務でも協力する。人材交流も進める。タタはみずほ証券とすでに業務提携しており、幅広い日本の顧客開拓を狙い三菱ＵＦＪ証券とも提携する。

　三菱ＵＦＪ証券とタタキャピタルは13日に覚書を交わす予定。三菱ＵＦＪ証券はインド株業務に本格参入し、タタが出した銘柄分析リポートも活用する。共同でインド企業によるＭ＆Ａや資金調達を支援するほか、インド企業のＭ＆Ａを狙う日本企業にも助言をする。

--------------------------
アーバンコーポ、民事再生法を申請　負債2558億円で08年最大

　東証１部上場の不動産会社、アーバンコーポレイションは13日、東京地裁に民事再生法の適用を申請し、同日受理されたと発表した。負債総額は2558億 3200万円で上場企業では今年最大。主に外資系ファンドから資金を調達して分譲マンションやオフィスビルを開発、転売するビジネスモデルで急成長したが、不動産市況の低迷で経営環境が悪化。信用力が低下し資金繰りが行き詰まった。

　同社は1990年5月に不動産仲介業を目的に設立し、その後、分譲マンション「アーバンビュー」シリーズで業容を拡大。オフィスビルや店舗、宅地など低収益の不動産資産を取得し、改修・改装して転売する「不動産流動化事業」で業績を急成長させた。

　2008年3月期は連結売上高で2437億円、経常利益617億円、純利益で311億円を確保したものの日本格付研究所（ＪＣＲ）が、アーバンコーポレイションが過去に発行した公募普通社債の格付けを「トリプルＢマイナス」から「ダブルＢプラス」に1段階格下げ。信用不安が広がり、経営が行き詰まった。

-----------------------
７月の小規模企業の景況感、2000年以降で最悪に　商工会連合会

　全国商工会連合会が13日発表した7月の小規模企業景気動向調査によると、産業全体の業況ＤＩ（「好転」と回答した割合から「悪化」を引いた値）は前月より3.3ポイント悪化し、マイナス72.5となった。原材料高や米景気が減速しているためで、悪化は4カ月連続。米同時テロ発生後の景気後退などで 2001年12月に記録したマイナス70.8を下回り、さかのぼって比較できる2000年以降で最悪となった。

　業種別では、製造業など全4業種で悪化。小売業は1.4ポイント悪化のマイナス70.1。建設業も3.8ポイント悪化しマイナス92.4だった。

　調査は7月末に実施。全国約300の商工会の経営指導員にアンケート方式で聞いた。

--------------------------
ガソリン２週ぶり値下がり、１リットル184.4円　0.7円安

　石油情報センターが13日発表した11日時点のレギュラーガソリンの給油所店頭価格（全国平均）は、前週比1リットルあたり0.7円安い184.4円となった。消費者の節約志向が進み、給油所の価格競争が激化したため。

　価格の低下は2週間ぶり。前週は8月に入って元売り各社が卸売価格を引き上げ、1987年に調査を開始して以来最高となる185.1円を記録した。ただ、夏休み中にもかかわらずガソリン需要が低迷しており、値下げを余儀なくされている給油所が増えているようだ。

　ハイオクは0.7円安い195.3円だった。

------------------------
通販大手、カタログ費削減急ぐ

　通販大手が商品を掲載したカタログの製作費用削減に取り組んでいる。千趣会は今月発行の秋冬号からインターネット注文主体の顧客へのカタログ送付を中止した。ニッセンも注文履歴をもとに顧客ごとに無駄なページを省いたカタログ作りを進めている。両社ともカタログ経由の販売が主力だが、印刷用紙の価格は過去1年で10―15％上昇しているため、見直しを決めた。

　千趣会は直近2年間にネットだけで注文した顧客へのカタログ送付を取りやめた。該当する送付先は会員全体の約7％に当たる50万件。印刷部数は200万冊程度減る見通し。送料などを含めたコスト削減効果は12月までの半年間で約5億円を見込む。

-------------------------
三菱電機、発電機の生産能力２割増　新興国の電力需要に対応

　三菱電機は2008年度中に原子力や火力発電設備の中核機器である発電機の生産能力を約2割増強する。中国やロシアなどの新興国で電力需要が急増しているのに対応する。既存の設備を有効活用できる新たな生産方式を導入することで新規投資や人員増強を最小限に抑え、能力増強に要する期間を短縮する。

　現在、発電機を年間37台生産している電力システム製作所（神戸市）の能力を、今年度中に同45台に引き上げる。主にタービン発電機と呼ばれる大規模な原子力・火力発電所に使用する発電機を生産する予定だ。

-----------------------
ロシア人スパイを書類送検、警視庁　日本国内で情報収集

　アジア系ロシア人の男が失そうした日本人になりすまし、30年以上日本国内でスパイ活動をしていたとされる事件で、警視庁公安部は13日、不正に旅券を取得したとして、男を旅券法違反容疑などで書類送検した。

　同部は1997年7月に男の逮捕状を取り、国際手配していた。男は95年に出国し、昨年6月には不正取得した旅券が失効。再入国の見込みがないことなどから、書類送検した。事実上の捜査終結で、不起訴処分になる見通しとみられる。

　同部によると、男は65年に福島県で失そうした歯科技工士の男性（当時34）になりすまし、東京都内の貿易会社に勤務、30年以上にわたり軍事、政治関連の情報を収集したという。家宅捜索で自宅から無線機や乱数表が押収されており、同部はロシア対外情報庁（ＳＶＲ＝旧ＫＧＢ）のスパイだったとみている。

-----------------------
イリジウム窃盗、全面的に認める　千葉地裁で初公判

　千葉県市原市の検査会社から放射性同位元素イリジウム１９２が入った容器を盗んだとして、窃盗や放射線障害防止法違反などの罪に問われた、下請け会社元役員で無職磯智則被告（40）の初公判が13日、千葉地裁（樋上慎二裁判官）で開かれ、磯被告は罪状認否で起訴事実を全面的に認めた。

　起訴状によると、磯被告は4月5日未明、「非破壊検査株式会社」東京事業本部京葉事業部の保管庫からイリジウム入りの容器（130万円相当）を盗むなどした。

　磯被告は容器を2つに分解し、イリジウム１９２（長さ2ミリ、直径2ミリ）が入った内側の容器を横浜市内の川に、外側の容器を横浜港にそれぞれ捨てた。

------------------------
仏極右本部、財政難で売却…中国の大学へ、出直し図る

　財政難に苦しむフランスの極右政党、国民戦線（ＦＮ）はこのほどパリ郊外にある約５２００平方メートルの党本部を中国・上海の大学に売却する合意書に署名した。ルペン党首（８０）の話として週刊誌レクスプレス（電子版）などが１２日までに報じた。

　ＦＮは昨年の下院選で議席ゼロの惨敗を喫し、得票数に応じて額が決まる政党助成金や選挙資金への国庫補助が激減。負債は８００万ユーロ（約１３億円）を超え、銀行口座の凍結措置も受けていた。本部売却で借金を返済、出直しを図るが、党勢の衰えは著しく、前途は暗そうだ。

　ルペン氏は２００２年のフランス大統領選で決選投票に進み、国内外を驚かせたが、昨年の大統領選では右派色の強いサルコジ氏らに票を奪われ、第１回投票で敗れた。財政難に伴い、ルペン氏愛用の防弾仕様の乗用車が今春、インターネット競売で落札されたばかり。

漁業支援に７４５億円 政府・与党、燃料高騰を補填

漁業支援に７４５億円　政府・与党、燃料高騰を補填

2008年7月28日22時16分

　政府・与党は２８日、新たな原油高対策として、漁業用の燃料費の値上がり分の大半を事実上、直接補填（ほてん）する方針を決めた。補填を含む緊急対策の総額は７４５億円で、２９日に正式に発表する。政府は価格補助政策は市場原理に反するとの立場だったが、漁民の窮状に配慮して方針を変えた。

　自民、公明両党は、民主党が昨夏の参院選で打ち出した農家などへの戸別所得補償制度を「バラマキ」と批判してきた。しかし、原油高に苦しむ有権者の要望を受けて昨年暮れから政府に具体策を求め、直接補填まで踏み込むことを後押しした。

　「燃油高騰水産業緊急対策」の内訳は、水産物の買い取り４００億円▽省エネ目的の無利子融資２００億円▽省燃油実証事業８０億円▽休漁・減船などの支援６５億円。財源は既存の予算に盛り込まれた事業の活用などで捻出（ねんしゅつ）する。

　このうち、事実上の直接補填に当たるのは「省燃油実証事業」。燃油消費量を通常より１割以上削減する省エネ努力をした漁業者グループ（５人以上）を認定、昨年１２月からの燃油費の上昇分の９割を政府が負担する。８月中の開始を目指しており、今年度末まで続ける。原油高が続けばさらに２年延長する方向だ。

　政府は、原油高対策で他国の価格補助政策を批判してきた。今年６月、青森市で開かれた日米中など５カ国エネルギー相会合では、議長国としてまとめた共同声明に「エネルギーに対する価格補助金は段階的、漸進的な撤廃に向けて動くことが望ましい」と明記した。「高騰すれば需要が抑制され、需給バランスが安定し、省エネのインセンティブが働く」（資源エネルギー庁幹部）との理由からだ。

　今回の緊急対策でも「燃油消費量を１割以上削減」という条件を課しているが、与党内では「できれば全漁業者が対象になるようにしたい」（浜田靖一・自民党水産総合調査会長）との声が大勢で、支援基準がなし崩しになる可能性もある。

--------------------------
原油高対策、漁業者向け745億円に　与党、「9割補てん」を了承

　自民、公明両党は28日、政府がまとめた漁業者向けの原油高対策を了承した。省エネ事業に取り組む漁業者に、水揚げ高の増加や省エネでもカバーできなかった燃油費の増加分の9割を国が補てんするのが柱だ。対策全体の事業規模は745億円で、既存の燃油対策基金の取り崩しや今年度予算の活用で対応するが、政府・与党は補正予算での金額の積み増しも検討する。

　水産庁は31日、漁業関係者を対象に対策の説明会を開く。

　燃油費の補てんを受けるためには、漁業者5人以上がグループで省エネに取り組み、燃油使用量を10％以上削減しなければならない。水揚げ高が同じだとすれば、省エネ後の燃油費と、昨年12月を基準にした燃油費の差額の9割を補てんする。

-------------------------
America must not act rashly over inflation

By Mark Gertler

Published: July 28 2008 19:03 | Last updated: July 28 2008 19:03

The startling jump in US consumer price inflation over the past several months has sparked concern over whether the economy is entering an inflationary spiral similar to that of the 1970s.

Lost in most of the commentary about inflation has been a careful inspection of its underlying mechanics. Almost all the recent increase in headline consumer price index inflation is due to rocketing energy and food prices. Inflation excluding energy and food is significantly lower.

The increase in the core CPI over the past year was just 2.4 per cent, slightly above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone of 1 to 2 per cent. The feeding through of food and energy costs to core prices did produce an uptick this past month. Over the coming year, however, below-capacity output growth and softening oil and commodity prices are likely to push core inflation back towards the comfort zone.

Why care about headline inflation versus core inflation? Simply put, a sustained move of headline inflation to the levels of the 1970s is unlikely without an accompanying increase in the core component. The reason is simple: although they can be highly persistent, rapid increases in the relative prices of energy and food cannot go on indefinitely. Once this process dies down, as long as core inflation remains anchored, headline inflation must converge to it.

History bears this out. From the late 1960s to the late 1970s the Fed lost control of core inflation, which increased nearly in lockstep with overall inflation. By contrast, over this past decade the Fed has adjusted monetary policy to sustain the core measure at a steady, low rate. While there have been prolonged periods of departure of headline inflation from core, these gaps have typically been under 100 basis points annually. It is true that headline inflation has hovered uncomfortably long in the 3 to 4 per cent range recently. But this is still well below that of the stagflationary 1970s.

Indeed, there are signs that the forces that have pushed headline above core inflation are beginning to reverse course. Over the past several weeks, oil prices have declined more than 10 per cent and commodity prices have softened as well. The laws of supply and demand suggest that this may not be a transitory phenomenon. The root cause of the increase in energy and food prices was most probably rising global demand. Now that global economic activity is expected to slow down considerably, demand for oil and commodities is likely to weaken along with it, placing downwa rd pressure on the relative prices of these goods.

Could we do better by targeting headline inflation directly? Probably not. In an environment of gyrating energy and food price inflation, targeting headline inflation requires the central bank to engineer offsetting changes in the path of core inflation. Given how sluggishly the prices of most core items adjust, funnelling core inflation through a tight oscillating path even over the medium term stretches a central bank’s capability.

There is simply too much uncertainty over both the timing and the overall impact of its interest rate moves on core inflation to believe that a central bank could smoothly accomplish this task. Further, the sharp interest rate adjustments likely to accompany this attempted fine-tuning exercise could wreak havoc on the real economy.

Could it be that high headline inflation is unmooring inflation expectations, leading us back to the 1970s through this painful route? Some measures of inflation expectations are edging upwards. This needs to be taken seriously. However, where we should expect the impact of increasing expectations to show up is exactly in the behaviour of core prices and wages.

So far this is not happening. Not only has core inflation remained stable but the growth in nominal unit labour costs, on which most pricing of core items is based, also remains benign. It may very well be that the Fed’s reputation for keeping core inflation stable has kept the expectations relevant for price- and wage-setting in line. Also relevant is that, at least to date, wage- setters appear to understand that, however unfortunate, the relative increase in energy and food prices is something beyond the central bank’s control that they must live with.

While the non-core component has been the main driving force for headline inflation in the main industrialised economies, for many emerging market economies the picture is different: above-capacity output growth has pushed core inflation up along with headline.

Further, high output growth among these economies has been an important factor in the global commodity price boom. While we can debate the course of monetary policy for the advanced economies, the most obvious candidates for immediate tightening are the emerging market central banks.

Keeping inflation under control is a real concern and I do not mean to suggest otherwise.

What is required, however, is a policy response that recognises the complexities of the inflationary process, including its global nature, and not a simple knee-jerk reaction. From Japan in the 1990s we know that a fractured credit system can induce prolonged stagnation, even in an advanced economy. Given the uncertain condition of the US financial and real sectors, the goal should be to achieve price stability in a way that continues to keep low the possibility that this economy could suffer a similar fate.

The writer is Henry and Lucy Moses professor of economics at New York University

-------------------------
US credit crisis is hitting the wealthy

By Francesco Guerrera and Saskia Scholtes in New York

Published: July 28 2008 19:36 | Last updated: July 28 2008 19:36

The US financial crisis is spreading from subprime borrowers to wealthier consumers, with evidence mounting that more affluent people are failing to pay their mortgages and credit card balances.

Growing concerns over the financial health of richer borrowers are prompting banks and card issuers to tighten lending practices in moves that could futher dampen consumer confidence and spending more.

Banks such as JPMorgan Chase and credit card groups such as American Express have clamped down on lending to customers that have traditionally been regarded among the safest and most profitable borrowers.

“The crisis is just starting to spread beyond the middle class,” said Curtis Arnold, founder of CardRatings.com. “Even folks with good credit-ratings scores are no longer immune from adverse actions from their card issuers.”

Senior bankers say that after the subprime debacle, the worsening outlook of “prime” portfolios shows the crisis is far from over and could inflict substantial losses on financial institutions.

The spreading of the credit crunch to wealthier consumers could hit financial groups, such as JPMorgan and American Express, which have so far avoided the worst of the crisis because of their relatively low exposure to subprime customers. Second-quarter results from financial companies showed rising losses on mortgages and credit cards issued to prime customers as soaring gas prices, the slowing economy and depressed house values took their toll.

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s chairman and chief executive, recently told Wall Street analysts that the outlook for prime mortgages was “terrible” and the rate of delinquencies could double or treble from current levels of about 4 per cent.

JPMorgan suffered a $104m loss on its $47bn worth of prime mortgages in the second quarter, more than double its first-quarter loss, and warned that losses on prime mortgages could reach up to $300m a quarter next year.

JPMorgan has already tightened lending standards for prime borrowers – reducing the size and the volume of these mortgages – especially in areas, such as California, where home prices have been falling sharply.

At American Express, which has traditionally focused on high-spending consumers, second-quarter earnings were down 37 per cent year-over-year. Kenneth Chenault, chairman and chief executive, said the company’s most affluent card-holders were feeling the pinch.

“The scope of the economic fall-out was evident even among our longer-term, superprime card members,” he said.

American Express and other card issuers are responding to this deterioration by cutting back on credit lines, and scaling back on new card issuance in the most vulnerable areas.

---------------------------
Afghan drug lords hire foreign chemists

By Jon Boone in Kabul

Published: July 28 2008 18:44 | Last updated: July 28 2008 18:44

Drug lords in Afghanistan, where poppy growing has soared in spite of the billions that western powers have spent in trying to stamp it out, have started to recruit foreign chemists to help turn raw opium into highly refined heroin, the United Nations warned on Monday.

Most of the chemists come from Iran, Turkey and Pakistan, the UN says, and are going to some of Afghanistan’s most troubled areas to oversee the mixing of poppy resin with smuggled industrial chemicals to produce heroin of the highest quality.

Christina Orguz, Afghanistan country director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said Afghanistan’s drug lords were behaving like businessmen and recruiting the best talent available. Afghanistan now supplies more than 90 per cent of the world’s heroin.

Last year, an estimated 60 per cent of Afghanistan’s poppy harvest was processed into heroin inside the country, but until now it was not known foreign chemists were helping produce such high-grade forms of the drug.

Widespread lawlessness in the south and east of the war-wracked country allows illegal drugs laboratories to operate with virtual impunity. However, the process requires vast quantities of chemicals to be smuggled into the country. The UN estimates some 13,000 tons of chemicals were required last year.

The most important chemical, acetic anhydride, is used in many legal industries, including paints and pharmaceuticals, and much of the material that finds its way to Afghanistan is made by blue-chip companies in Europe, South Korea and Russia.

But an international control system designed to prevent the chemicals from being misused is unable to prevent it being obtained in Pakistan, where criminal gangs use front companies to get hold of the chemical.

Officials say they have had some success in disrupting the illegal smuggling of chemicals to Afghanistan, which has almost no requirement for them.

Recent seizures – including three tons in Kabul – have helped to disrupt supply, causing the price of chemicals to soar in some regions and prompting traffickers to experiment with acetyl chloride, a highly explosive alternative.

However, the battle against Afghanistan’s drug lords has been hindered by endemic corruption and government weakness.

“Afghanistan has not had a well-trained police force for many, many years,” Ms Orguz said. “They are taking baby steps now.”

-------------------------
Fed governor eyes inflation objective

By Krishna Guha in Washington

Published: July 28 2008 17:39 | Last updated: July 28 2008 17:39

The Federal Reserve should adopt a specific numerical inflation objective, outgoing governor Frederic Mishkin said on Monday, saying it would help the US central bank deal with financial crises and other economic shocks.

Mr Mishkin suggested an appropriate rate would be “about two per cent or perhaps a bit lower”. Fed policymakers should also reveal their estimates of the potential growth rate and the natural rate of unemployment.

He said a numerical objective would better anchor US inflation expectations, giving the Fed greater latitude to respond to shocks such as the credit crisis.

While Mr Mishkin will return to Columbia University at the end of August, he appears to hope that his speech will spur fresh debate inside the Fed as to whether it should adopt more of the features of an inflation-targeting approach to monetary policy, as practised by other central banks, such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

Mr Mishkin’s proposed inflation objective, which he called a “mandate-consistent inflation rate”, would be similar in many respects to an inflation target.

But the Fed would not commit to achieving the inflation goal by any specific time horizon. Policymakers rather than elected officials would define what the appropriate inflation rate should be.

Mr Mishkin suggested future Fed officials should respect this assessment, in the same way the Supreme Court respected its own precedents, and change the objective only for “technical” reasons.

He said an inflation objective would give the Fed “greater flexibility to respond decisively to adverse demand shocks” because people would be less likely to mark up their expectations of long-term inflation in response to short-term policy easing.

This would be “especially valuable in periods of financial market stress as we have been experiencing recently”.

Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, shares Mr Mishkin’s broad assessment of the desirability of a defined inflation objective, although he has not endorsed Mr Mishkin’s specific proposals. By raising the issue, Mr Mishkin may hope to create an opening for Mr Bernanke.

The Fed chairman announced a review of communications strategy soon after taking office. But traditionalists argued against adopting a specific inflation goal, fearing it might bring little gain, while reducing the central bank’s operational flexibility and inviting political interference.

Late last year the two camps compromised with a set of incremental changes that extended the frequency and length of Fed forecasts. These forecasts suggest the Fed as a whole is aiming for inflation of about 1.75 per cent, but it is impossible to be certain.

Mr Bernanke may indeed try to revisit the issue of an inflation objective once the credit crisis is over, not least because the US may emerge from it with inflation higher than policymakers feel is desirable.

Announcing a stated inflation objective might make it less costly to bring inflation back down again. However, reaching consensus on the desirability of an objective and on what this should be would not be easy.

-------------------------
Italy's Iron Lady attracts Gulf investors to Milan

By Richard Milne

Published: July 29 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 29 2008 03:00

Several Gulf sovereign wealth funds are in talks with Milan about funding billions of euros of infrastructure and property investments in the northern Italian city ahead of Expo 2015, the world fair that is scheduled to be held there, it has been revealed.

Letizia Moratti, mayor of Milan, is using the Expo 2015 to find new sources of international capital for the city. She says Qatar and other Gulf countries are interested in investing in the €14bn ($22bn, £11bn) of planned projects.

"We are talking about billions of euros in real estate and infrastructure - some for the Expo and some not. There is a lot of interest," she says.

Ms Moratti, a businesswoman and former government minister known as the Iron Lady of Italy, is hoping Expo will boost Milan's profile but also wants the whole country to benefit from better relationships abroad.

But the event has sparked some scepticism in the business and political communities, with the central government blocking a decree necessary to the start of Expo.

"For me there is still a question mark over the whole event," said the chief executive of a large Italian bank. "I don't want us to waste a lot of money. On the other hand, all infrastructure that could improve Milan and the local region is very important."

World fairs and other similar large events have had mixed financial results. Hanover's Expo in 2000 made a large loss after over-optimistic forecasts of visitor numbers and entry prices seen as too high.

Research by Milan's chamber of commerce says the event could bring in €44bn in increased revenues and benefit the whole region - if not the whole country.

"I believe that Expo 2015 will help Italy to announce new economic and cultural relations with many more countries," Ms Moratti says. She points to agreements between the Milan trade fair the UAE and South Korea, as well as two Japanese banks setting up in Milan to deal in infrastructure finance.

Infrastructure has long been one of the city's weak points. Business complains that poor connections in and around Milan hamper its ability to compete with better-connected neighbours in southern Germany.

Milan's Expo plans include the construction of three new metro lines and the extension of three others, improved road and rail networks and improvements to the international airport at Malpensa. The sovereign wealth funds could invest here or in the €4bn site planned for the Expo, Ms Moratti says.

Expos - or world fairs, as the international public exhibitions are also known - started in 1851 with the Great Exhibition in London's Hyde Park. They have since grown to become, on some estimates, the third-largest regular global event after the football World Cup and Olympic Games.

This year, an Expo is taking place in Zaragoza, Spain, on the theme of water. and other world fairs, which take place at irregular intervals, are planned for 2010 in Shanghai and 2012 in Yeosu, South Korea.

But as with the World Cup and Olympics, there is considerable debate over the economic worth and long-term benefits of holding an Expo. Critics argue that the events cost a lot and leave behind few vital amenities for cities. But supporters say they can often revitalise tired regions, even if the income from the event fails to cover all the costs.

Ms Moratti said the city would not have a big landmark such as London's Crystal Palace (which later burnt down), the Eiffel Tower or Brussels' Atomium, but will try to develop schools and healthcare throughout the world. "Our landmark will be disseminated in the entire world," she said.

--------------------------
Egypt to squeeze growth out of desert

By Heba Saleh in Cairo

Published: July 27 2008 22:57 | Last updated: July 27 2008 22:57

For about six weeks from mid-May every year, grapes from the Shorouk farm in the Egyptian desert fill a gap on the shelves of European supermarkets waiting for southern European growers to begin sending grapes their way.

Shorouk is one of many modern farms in the re-claimed lands of the West Delta desert region driving a boom in Egyptian agricultural exports that reached $1.5bn (€955m, £750m) in 2007, up some 55 per cent over the previous year.

A thirst for food

Multimedia feature: As increasing water scarcity threatens the ability of farmers to produce enough food for growing populations, how will governments ensure food security? Is virtual water trade the answer? View now

Behind the boom is the country’s cheap labour, proximity to Europe and its ability to grow high-value crops such as grapes, citrus fruit, vegetables and ornamental plants.

But for the desert farmers of Egypt the main challenge remains how to maximise the return on their water usage.

“The game here is how to get the maximum yield with the best quality... using the minimum amount of water,” Adel El Ghandour, one of the Shorouk farm’s owners, says.

At the moment the 500,000 cultivated acres in the West Delta are watered from an aquifer that is quickly becoming depleted.

A World Bank-funded project to supply piped water from the Nile is under way. But before it can be implemented Egypt had to obtain the agreement of the other nine Nile basin states.

Egypt’s share of the river is fixed by international agreements and Egyptian authorities are increasingly aware of the importance of using water judiciously if the needs of their expanding population are to continue to be met.

In the West Delta the farmers use modern methods such as drip irrigation which delivers exactly the right amount of water to each plant. Very little is lost.

But it is a very different picture in the ancient lands of the Delta and the Nile Valley.

Here the soil is fertile and the farmers use the age-old method of flood irrigation. It means water is used to cover the entire surface of the land to be irrigated. Almost half of it is wasted.

Experts say it is ironic that an acre in the old lands uses three times as much water as one in the reclaimed desert farms.

Another problem is the choice of crops. Rice and sugar cane, for instance, consume enormous amounts of water, but they are grown extensively.

There is consensus that agriculture in the old lands can be made more water-efficient but that conditions there cannot replicate those in the reclaimed desert farms.

Land holdings in the old areas are tiny and the farmers do not have the ability to keep abreast of international markets such as those of the West Delta.

In addition, small farmers are often too poor to make the necessary investments in modern irrigation systems.

Laws passed after the 1952 revolution broke up the big feudal estates into small holdings which were further divided up as the land was passed down through generations of children and grandchildren.

But the Egyptian government says it plans to embark on a project to overhaul irrigation in some 5m acres in the Delta in order to reduce lost water.

“I think with the prices of crops today and with the level of income from agricultural products where it is, this project is very feasible,” Rachid Mohamed Rachid, the minister of trade and industry, says.

“If we can economise on water usage this can give us the chance to increase our agricultural land by 2m-3m acres through desert reclamation.” Food security remains an important plank of the Egyptian government’s policy.

Crops that do not provide the maximum return on water are still grown because it is not certain they can be bought on the world market.

Egypt grows half the wheat it consumes, but it is still the world’s largest importer of the cereal.

With the recent increases in food prices internationally, many countries have slapped export bans on strategic crops such as wheat and rice to ensure that there are affordable supplies for local populations.

There is now a ban on the export of Egyptian rice.

“Food security is coming back as a main issue of concern of many countries because the ability to flow goods across borders is not guaranteed,” Mr Rachid says.

-------------------------
Japan ripe for generics, says Teva chief

By Andrew Jack in Tel Aviv

Published: July 28 2008 18:04 | Last updated: July 28 2008 18:10

The head of Teva, the world’s biggest generic drugs company, is seeking to forge a joint venture in Japan to increase its market share of one of the world’s largest medicines markets.

Shlomo Yanai, chief executive, told the Financial Times that capitalising on Japan’s small but fast-growing market for generic medicines was a top priority, even just after concluding the $7.5bn acquisition of Barr of the US this month.

“Right now Japan is more ripe for generics,” he said. “Japan is very important but difficult to break into. We see it as a very important market.

“We are exploring some options. A joint venture with a company with position in the market is definitely the preferred option.”

His comments reflect growing interest in Asia by Teva, which has 68 plants around the world but has until now tended to concentrate its manufacturing in Israel and Europe, with labour representing only a small proportion of total production costs.

They come shortly after Daiichi Sankyo, the Japan-based innovative pharmaceutical company, unveiled a planned takeover of Ranbaxy, the Indian generics business, in a move Mr Yanai interpreted as reflecting the Japanese group’s desire to draw in generic expertise for its own domestic market.

Japan has traditionally resisted low-cost generic drugs, which have had a reputation for low quality and have suffered because of the tight links between innovative drug companies and prescribers, leaving generics with a very small share compared with other markets.

Mr Yanai said Teva’s reputation for high-quality generics would help in that market, while working with a local partner would also give it an advantage.

He said that “China is on our radar screen”, but stressed that his interest was in building market share. The “colonial” trend of western companies shifting production into Asia had reached its peak, he said, now that the weak dollar had made US companies more competitive again.

Mr Yani added: “The advantage of going east is not about cheaper labour. Low production costs are temporary.”

He said that completing deals in India – a growing area of interest for generic drug manufacture – was a lower priority for Teva because “there are many good big Indian pharma companies already. I would have to have a very good rationale for why I would go there”.

He said that another area of strong interest for Teva’s future growth was eastern and central Europe, the focus of a number of take-overs of locally-based companies, including Zentiva in the Czech Republic, subject of a bid from Sanofi-Aventis of France.

Profitable drug faces new threats

Teva is best known as a generic drugmaker, but its most profitable product is largely protected from competition. Copaxone, a multiple sclerosis treatment, accounts for a third of total profits.

Originally developed by scientists at Israel’s Weizmann Institute, Dow Chemicals was close to agreeing to license it when insiders say the US company became nervous about the Arab boycott of Israel and pulled back. Teva took up the slack once the original product patent was all but expired.

Yet the drug’s complex manufacturing process, a mixture of amino acids described by one executive as a “goulash”, has until recently deterred rivals. The company has not hesitated to seek legal and regulatory protection for the drug.

However, the Copaxone franchise is now under threat. Elan’s Tysabri offers an alternative treatment and two rival generic companies, Natco of India and Momenta of the US, are preparing copies. And Teva’s clinical trials to test and grant exclusivity for a new dose of Copaxone have proved disappointing.

With Teva’s current strategic plan gearing up for the company to double in size, even ahead of the Barr acquisition, Mr Yanai nevertheless argues that innovative drugs will still represent about one-fifth of the net profit margin.

He points to promising results for another innovative drug developed by Teva: Azilect for Parkinson’s disease.

--------------------------
Beijing looks to more drastic pollution cuts

BEIJING, July 28 – Haze-shrouded Beijing could restrict more cars and shut more factories if air pollution persists during the Olympic Games, a report said on Monday, as an environmental group said endurance athletes could face problems.

Beijing has ordered many cars off roads and halted much construction and factory production in an effort to cut smog before the Games open on August 8.

But the city has still endured hazy skies over the past week, and again on Monday, raising fears that the sultry heat Beijing often experiences in August could make for a cocktail of haze, fumes and dust for tens of thousands of athletes and visitors.

An official newspaper indicated authorities may take more drastic steps to choke off pollution.

”More vehicles could go off the roads and all construction sites and some more factories in Beijing and its neighbouring areas could be closed temporarily if the capital’s air quality deteriorates during the Olympic Games,” the China Daily said.

An official with the Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau confirmed that plans for more cuts were being studied, but he declined to give details.

”The measures will be put into place if air quality turns out to be short of the standards we have promised,” the official, who would only give his surname Zhang, told Reuters by telephone.

Pollution has been one of the biggest worries for Games organisers who have said they may reschedule endurance events to prevent health risks to athletes.

The environmental group Greenpeace mixed praise for Beijing Olympic organisers’ energy- and water-saving efforts with warnings that air pollution, especially particulate matter, remains a long-term problem.

Beijing’s measures of PM10 – particulate matter 10 microns in diameter, about a seventh the thickness of a human hair – have consistently stayed above Chinese national standards and stricter World Health Organisation (WHO) standards, Greenpeace said in an assessment of the Beijing Games.

Lo Sze Ping, campaign director of Greenpeace China, told a news conference that Games organisers and ”sports teams from the various countries have reason to be concerned”.

”In the event PM10 conditions cannot meet with national standards and WHO standards, then there are reasons for different parties to suggest that certain events be delayed,” said Lo.

For four days now, Beijing had not experienced a ”blue sky day”, when the air pollution index stays below the national standard for ”good air quality.”

Cars are now banned on alternate days depending on their licence plate number – odd or even – and many government cars have been ordered off the roads. Taxis, buses and Olympic vehicles are exempt. Around Beijing, heavily polluting factories, such as steel plants, have also been closed.

A city environment official said last week that air was improving, with a 20 per cent cut in carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter since the same time last year.

But Greenpeace gave Beijing a mixed assessment. It noted energy-saving technology in Olympic venues, stricter vehicle emissions standards and expanded public transport.

But it said clean-up efforts were hampered by lack of policy transparency and independently verified data. Beijing did not even officially collect statistics on smaller particulate matter and ozone, pollutants that worry health experts, Greenpeace said.

”Beijing has also missed a golden opportunity in using the Games as a platform to implement more ambitious initiatives,” said Lo.

-------------------------
Rich look abroad for buy-to-let loans

By Sharlene Goff

Published: July 26 2008 02:20 | Last updated: July 26 2008 02:20

Wealthy buy-to-let property investors are bypassing mainstream UK lenders to take advantage of the more favourable terms provided by some foreign banks.

Mortgage brokers said property buyers were preparing to re-enter the housing market as they felt prices did not have too much further to fall. But investors looking for portfolios of properties or high-end houses were unable to obtain the large mortgages they needed from traditional lenders.

Mortgage Express, the buy-to-let arm of Bradford & Bingley, and Paragon, the specialist lender, have effectively priced themselves out of the market as they struggle with funding constraints. Lenders such as BM Solutions, The Mortgage Works and Woolwich are still in business but some have introduced tougher criteria.

Meanwhile, European banks, including Germany’s Kleinwort Benson, Sweden’s Handelsbanken and Switzerland’s EFG Bank, are willing to make multi-million-pound loans, and often at better rates with flexible terms.

“We are placing major deals on behalf of high-net-worth clients, but the big fees commission is going to overseas banks, which appear to be less nervous than our own,” said Gary Festa, mortgage specialist at HFM Columbus, a wealth manager.

Government urged to extend special liquidity

The government should kickstart the mortgage market through the extension of its special liquidity scheme, a consortium of housing organisations and interest groups has urged, Daniel Thomas reports.

The call comes in a letter to the FT ahead of a Treasury report into the mortgage market expected next week by James Crosby, which is expected to outline a series of proposals to stimulate the sector. The group, which includes mortgage lenders, intermediaries, landlords, housebuilders, surveyors and estate agents, will hope that this late pressure will influence its findings.

The government currently offers gilts in return for bonds backed by residential mortgages made before 2008, which can be cashed to generate liquidity for struggling lenders.

The consortium wants this facility to be extended to include new mortgages and investors in these bonds outside the lending market. This, they argue, will lead to the reopening of the funding markets.

The proposed scheme would only be available against bonds issued after its announcement, as it is designed to get the flow of new bonds started again.

The scheme is not without problems: there are fears it could lead to more reckless lending, and in effect to state-backed funding of some of the mortgage market.

The special liquidity scheme was also always intended as an emergency measure only, but since its launch conditions in the housing market have significantly deteriorated.

Some European lenders are offering lower arrangement fees, higher loan-to-values and less stringent rental requirements.

“It’s great news for UK borrowers that some foreign banks with strong balance sheets are aggressively competing for high-quality assets,” said Chris Fleming-Brown, managing partner at Egerton Partners, the mortgage broker. “They are taking advantage of the highest pricing levels and most conservative lending terms in the UK market for many years.”

A number of mainstream UK lenders have introduced maximum loans of £1m, limiting investors’ purchasing power. Even for smaller loans the terms can be unattractive. “The fees in particular are prohibitive,” said Melanie Bien, director of Savills Private Finance, “with many lenders charging around 2 or 2.5 per cent of the loan amount.”

Some private UK banks, such as Coutts and HSBC Private Bank, are providing some good deals for landlords, but brokers said that they were not competing as aggressively as the foreign banks.

Brokers have also seen more buying interest from property investors in the past few weeks. “We are on standby with an array of high-net-worth clients sitting on cash piles for investing in buy-to-let in the next 12 months,” said Mr Fleming-Brown.

Many are looking to buy a new property at a good price without selling – and taking a hit on – their own homes.

Paul Welch at Largemortgageloans.com, another broker, said a number of City clients were planning to switch their existing property to a buy-to-let mortgage and rent it out in order to buy something new.

Opportunities to pick up cheap property are limited to those with substantial cash reserves, however. Investors are commonly having to stump up deposits of 35 or 40 per cent to ensure their rental income is high enough to meet new restrictions from lenders.

“People with other assets and income, and lower loan-to-values, can still leverage good deals, particularly from foreign and private banks,” said Mr Welch.

--------------------------
Microfinance commercialisation warning

By Tom Burgis in Johannesburg

Published: July 29 2008 01:56 | Last updated: July 29 2008 01:56

The world’s biggest banks risk creating a subprime-style crisis for millions of the planet’s poorest people if they continue to plough money into the booming microfinance sector, Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate pioneer of microcredit, warned on Monday.

In a broadside against the increasing commercialisation of microfinance, Mr Yunus said overseas investors only served to introduce foreign exchange risks and should stay out of the sector.

“If you build it up that there’s a lot of money to make you can get a subprime kind of thing, but this time it’s the really poor people who will be in trouble,” Mr Yunus said in answer to a question from the Financial Times while speaking to reporters from a microfinance summit in Indonesia.

The gathering of microfinanciers announced a voluntary transparency drive under which willing institutions will submit details of the interest rates they charge on their loans. Mr Yunus’s Grameen Bank is the biggest of several lenders serving a total of 20m clients to commit to the scheme.

While comprehensive data are scarce, since its origins in Bangladesh 30 years ago, according to the most recent figures compiled by the Washington-based Microfinance Information Exchange (MIX) there were by 2006 at least 77m microfinance borrowers in 100 countries. JPMorgan calculated last year demand for financial services among poor people was worth as much as $300bn.

Loans are offered to groups who are unable to provide collateral, rendering them “unbankable” in the eyes of most traditional bankers.

Yet in recent years many of the world’s foremost financial institutions – among them Citigroup, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas – have entered the fray, either by opening credit lines to microfinance institutions, taking equity stakes in them or creating funds that allow investors to gain exposure to the fast-growing field.

Outstanding wholesale loans from 17 leading international commercial lenders to microfinance institutions more than doubled to between $1.1bn and $1.4bn in the year to the end of 2007, according to a recent report commissioned by ING, the Dutch lender which itself has a microfinance presence.

That compares with MIX’s estimate of a gross loan portfolio held by some 1,100 major microfinanciers of $24bn.

Other commercial banks, including several in Africa, are moving downmarket to cater directly to clients once the sole preserve of microfinance.

The growing commercialisation of the sector was underscored last year when Compartamos of Mexico became the first microfinance lender to go to the market, with a $467m initial public offering – a move it defended as the only way to meet the huge demand that still goes untapped.

But many in the industry fear that with the introduction of the profit motive to what was once a strictly not-for-profit endeavor is driving reckless lending at exorbitant interest rates of the kind that led to the meltdown of the US subprime mortgage market.

“When you are making profits you are moving into the mentality of the loan shark,” Mr Yunus said. “We are trying to get that loan shark out.”

---------------------------
Merrill stuns with new cash call and write-offs

Merrill Lynch underlined the depth of the credit crisis in a drastic move Monday night to bolster its depleted balance sheet, revealing an $8.5bn share offering and $5.7bn in writedowns linked to the sale of toxic mortgage securities. The move comes just 10 days after Merrill reported a $4.6bn Q2 loss, including a $9.4bn write-down, and announced asset sales aimed at raising $8bn in capital. Altogether, it has had to raise more than $26bn from outside investors, including the latest share offering. Among other investors, Singapore’s Temasek has agreed to buy $3.4bn worth of the public offering in a deal to avoid paper losses on the $5bn it invested in Merrill late last year. Lex says the new plan confirms the extent of Merrill’s problems. And “like most horror franchises, the sequels to Merrill’s original chiller appear never-ending”.

--------------------------------
OPEC chief says current oil prices 'abnormal'
AFP
AFP - 37 minutes ago

JAKARTA (AFP) - Crude oil prices above 120 dollars a barrel are "abnormal" and could fall to around 78 dollars under the right circumstances, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said here Tuesday.
(Advertisement)

"If the dollar continues to strengthen and the political situation (regarding Iran) improves, then the long-term prices will be about 78 dollars," Khelil told reporters in Jakarta, adding the market was well-supplied with oil.

Crude prices have doubled over the past two years but fallen from record highs of around 147 dollars a barrel reached earlier this month. They were trading at around 125 dollars on Tuesday.

"There's a balance in the market. I would say stocks are at a good level and there hasn't been any disruption in demand," Khelil said.

Asked whether any members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should cut production if oil prices continued to fall, he said: "No, I don't think so. Why should they cut production?"

"They always want to make sure there's good supply and demand and to satisfy the demand," he said.

Indonesia is the only Asian member of OPEC but has announced it will not renew its membership of the oil cartel at the end of the year as it has turned into a net importer in recent years.

--------------------------
BP To Post Mammoth £3.8bn Profits
SkyNews
By Sky News SkyNews - 1 hour 1 minute ago

BP is expected to post a mammoth £3.8bn in second-quarter profits, as the corporate giant is buoyed by surging oil prices.
(Advertisement)

The profits - 38% ahead of the same period last year and equivalent to more than £1.7m an hour - follow recent protests from hauliers over soaring costs.

The results are driven by the rocketing cost of crude oil over the period - finishing June at nearly $144 a barrel - but the bumper profits are unlikely to go down well.

Union leaders have called for a windfall tax on the profits of both BP and fellow major Royal Dutch Shell.

"Many will find it hard to accept the continued huge profits being made," Neil Greig, director of the Institute of Advanced Motorists Motoring Trust, said.

BP, however, says that it makes less than 1p in profit on every litre of petrol it sells at its 1,300 filling stations across the UK.

In response to calls for a windfall tax, the company adds that it paid £7.3bn in taxes worldwide last year - of which £1.17bn was in the UK.

The £3.8bn prediction for BP's underlying profits - stripping out exceptional gains and losses - is a consensus of City forecasts which range as high as £4.1bn.

Under chief executive Tony Hayward - who took over from "Sun King" Lord Browne last year - the group is also benefiting from the increasing efficiency of its refineries.

In February, BP announced plans to cull 5,000 of its 97,000 employees in a bid to streamline the company - with 1,500 of its 16,000 UK staff set to leave by the middle of next year.

Tony Woodley, joint leader of Unite, said: "While ordinary people struggle to make ends meet, BP's boardroom is wading through knee deep profits.

"It is high time our government moved to stop the fuel corporates picking the pockets of the poor and needy."

---------------------------
Bank of China buys 30 percent of Swiss hedge fund: report
AFP
AFP - 2 hours 22 minutes ago

BEIJING (AFP) - Bank of China, one of the country's big four state-owned commercial banks, has bought a 30 percent stake in Switzerland's Heritage Fund Management (HFM), state media reported Tuesday.
(Advertisement)

According to the agreement, the bank will eventually increase its stake to 70 percent, while Jacques Mechelany, a founder of the Swiss asset management firm, will hold the remaining 30 percent, the National Business Daily said.

No financial details were given. Bank of China declined to comment on the report.

HFM was established in 2006 as a partnership between Mechelany and Banque Heritage, a private bank based in Geneva. It serves pension funds and institutional investors, according to the Banque Heritage website.

It focuses on the Asian market and currently manages six funds with an asset value topping 300 million euros (472 million dollars), the Chinese report said.

Some of the funds suffered heavy losses in the first half of 2008 amid global financial market turmoil, but Bank of China sees this as a good opportunity to buy, it said.

Analysts said the Chinese bank hoped to gain risk management expertise and client resources and improve its wealth management skills from the deal, according to the report.

---------------------------
国交相、公共事業費の５％削減容認

　冬柴鉄三国土交通相は29日の閣議後の記者会見で、2009年度予算の概算要求基準で公共事業費の削減率を3％から5％に広げる政府方針について、「財政健全化へ取り組む必要があると理解している」と述べ、受け入れる考えを示した。その一方で、公共事業費の削減分を約3000億円の「重点枠」（重要課題推進枠）で取り戻すことに意欲を示した。

　国交相は神戸市灘区の都賀川の増水事故を例に挙げ、「国民の安心・安全を確保するために必要な公共事業は増えている」と語り、重点枠を公共事業費にも活用する必要性を強調した。

-----------------------------
６月家計調査、実質消費支出1.8％減　基調判断「おおむね横ばい」

　総務省が29日発表した6月の家計調査によると、2人以上の世帯の消費支出は1世帯当たり28万1951円と、物価変動の影響を除いた実質で前年同月比 1.8％減少した。4カ月連続のマイナス。ただ減少幅は3％前後だった4、5月より小さく、総務省は基調判断を「前月の減少傾向が止まり、おおむね横ばい」に上方修正した。

　支出の内訳をみると、幅広い品目で値上がりした食料品や、セール開催期が昨年より後ずれした衣服が減少。価格上昇が続くガソリンも実質6.3％減と2カ月連続で減った。一方、北京五輪向けの薄型テレビや、冷蔵庫などの家電は比較的好調だった。

　住居や自動車などを除く、国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の個人消費推計に使っているベースの消費支出は実質1.5％減。またサラリーマン世帯の消費支出は実質で前年同月比0.3％増、税金や社会保険料を除いた可処分所得は4.3％減だった。

----------------------------
外食・娯楽費、物価高で絞る　７―９月消費動向調査

　消費者が外食や娯楽への支出に財布のひもを締めている。内閣府の消費動向調査によると、7―9月に外食や娯楽への支出を「減らす」消費者が「増やす」を大幅に上回った。自己啓発の費用なども抑制傾向にあり、身近な商品の値上がりに悩む消費者はサービスへの支出削減に取り組み始めている。

　内閣府は約5000世帯を対象に、サービスへの支出について「今より増やす」と答えた世帯の割合から「減らす」の割合を引いてＤＩを算出している。

-------------------------
６月の完全失業率4.1％　前月比0.1ポイント悪化

　総務省が29日発表した６月の完全失業率（季節調整値）は4.1％となり、前月に比べ0.1ポイント上昇した。完全失業者数は前年同月比24万人増加の 265万人となり、３カ月連続で増加した。また就業者数は6451万人となり、前年同月より40万人減少、５カ月連続の減少となった。

　完全失業率を男女別にみると、男性が前月比横ばいの4.2％、女性が0.3ポイント上昇の4.0％だった。また完全失業者のうち、勤務先の人員整理や倒産などで失業した「勤め先都合」は59万人、「自己都合」は101万人だった。

---------------------------
07年度の国内宿泊旅行者数、0.9％増　リクルート調べ

　リクルートがまとめた「じゃらん宿泊旅行調査2008」によると、2007年度に宿泊を伴う国内旅行をした人数は推計で延べ1億7500万人となり、前の年度より0.9％増えた。旅行した人の割合が63.8％と0.9ポイント減った半面、同じ人が何度も旅行に行く傾向が強まっており、延べ人数は前回調査の2.8％減からプラスに転じた。航空運賃の上昇などで海外旅行を手控え、国内旅行に切り替えた人も多かったとみられる。

　誰と旅行したかという設問では「夫婦2人」が23.8％となり、前回と同様に最も多かった。「一人旅」（12.0％）が年々増加している半面、「小学生以下の子供を連れた旅行」（12.4％）は減少傾向にある。

　調査は出張や帰省、修学旅行を除いた「観光旅行」が対象。インターネットを通じて回収した2万件のアンケート結果などをもとに推計した。

---------------------------
ガソリン高騰：異変　駐車場埋まらず　事故減　高速道緩和

　ガソリンの平均価格が１リットル＝１８０円を超え、史上最高値を記録した影響で、レンタカーや駐車場の利用が落ち込んでいる。一方、ノロノロ運転が日常茶飯事の東京都内では、交通事故の減少や高速道路の渋滞緩和など思わぬ効果も出始めた。【町田徳丈、武内亮】

　「もっと燃費のいい車はないの？」。東京都江東区のレンタカー営業所にワゴン車を返却に来た中野区の男性（６８）は、従業員にぼやいた。男性は月に２～３回ワゴン車を借り、首都圏の得意先に絵画を運ぶ。「ガソリン代を浮かすために、走行距離や時間を考えて回らざるをえない」と嘆く。

　レンタカー大手の「ニッポンレンタカーサービス」（渋谷区）によると、燃費がよい軽自動車を選ぶ客が増えており、排気量の小さい１３００～１５００ＣＣの車種の利用も多い。２日前後だった平均使用日数も短くなってきていることから、６月の売り上げは１．２％減となった。

　台東区のＪＲ御徒町駅近くの立体駐車場では利用率が最も高い正午から夕方の時間帯でも４０台分のスペースが埋まることは少ない。管理業者は「売り上げは昨年より１割減。７月はさらに落ち込んだ」とため息をついた。

　駐車場業者約８００社が加盟する全日本駐車協会（千代田区）によると、ガソリンが一斉値上げされた６月以降、利用台数は１～２割減った。岡宏樹専務理事は「食料品の高騰で台所事情が苦しいなか、まず交通費を削減する家庭が増えたためではないか」と分析する。

　一方、都内の交通事故は減少し、高速道路の渋滞も大幅に緩和された。警視庁交通部によると、上半期（１～６月）の事故件数（物損除く）は３万７５件（前年同期比３９９０件減）。死者数も戦後最少の９６人（同３４人減）で、重軽傷者も３万４０３３人（同４２７３人減）だった。

　首都高速道路（千代田区）によると、東京線の１～５月の平日午前１１時の総渋滞距離は平均３９キロで、昨年同期比１２キロ短くなった。渋滞が特に激しい４号線（高井戸－三宅坂）は所要時間が約６分短縮された。

　警視庁交通部の園田清管理官は「マイカーの利用を控える人が増えて交通量が減少したのに伴い、事故も減ったとみられる」と話している。

------------------------------
大証、ロシアと南アの株価指数連動のＥＴＦ上場

　大阪証券取引所は29日、ロシアと南アフリカ共和国の株価指数に連動する上場投資信託（ＥＴＦ）を上場した。初値はそれぞれ238円、381円だった。両国の株価指数に連動するＥＴＦは国内で初めて。大証は昨秋に中国の株価指数に連動するＥＴＦを上場しており、品ぞろえを拡充する。

　ロシアと南アのＥＴＦは野村アセットマネジメントが設定。100口を1単位として売買し、投資家は数万円から取引できる。上場記念式典で大証の小島茂夫常務は「資源国として投資家の注目度が高い」と述べ、売買拡大に期待を示した。

--------------------------
郵便局がコンビニ経営　８月から

　日本郵政グループの郵便局会社は28日、今年2月に包括提携したローソンとフランチャイズチェーン契約を結び、郵便局内でコンビニエンスストアを経営すると発表した。「ＪＰローソン」の名称で、通常のコンビニの3分の1程度の小型店を展開する。8月から9月にかけ、首都圏で試験的に8店舗を開く。

　店舗面積は15―50平方メートル程度で、郵便局内の空きスペースを利用する。弁当やおにぎりなども扱い、品目は500―1500程度になる見込み。郵便局の営業時間に合わせるため、深夜の営業は行わない。

　これまでも郵便局併設のコンビニはあったが、コンビニ大手が直接運営を担っていた。郵便局会社は自ら運営に乗り出し、収益の底上げにつなげたい考えだ。郵便局会社はすでに不動産事業進出や生活サービスの取り次ぎなどの収益向上策を打ち出している。

-------------------------
都市ガス販売量、６月は3.5％増　２カ月ぶりプラス

　日本ガス協会が29日発表した６月の都市ガス販売量実績は、前年同月比3.5％増の26億7200万立方メートルだった。2カ月ぶりに前年実績を上回った。前年よりも低い気温が続いたため給湯需要が増加、家庭用は4.4％増の6億2600万立方メートルとなった。工業用は既存の供給先工場の稼働増などで 5.0％増の15億800万立方メートルだった。

------------------------
新日鉄八幡火災、車向け鋼材供給に影響も

　火災が発生した八幡製鉄所は新日本製鉄の粗鋼生産の約1割を担う。粗鋼生産を一時停止したことで、自動車向けなどの鋼材供給に影響が出る可能性もある。これまで好調な需要を背景にフル稼働を続けてきた。火災発生源のコークス炉の復旧に手間取れば生産活動への影響が長引くうえ、市場からスポットなどで高値のコークスを調達する必要に迫られかねず、同社の収益にも打撃を与えそうだ。

　近代製鉄発祥の地である八幡製鉄所の粗鋼生産量は年間389万トン。自動車のほか建築、家電向けの鋼材を生産しており、三交代勤務でフル稼働を続けていた。新日鉄によると、火災で燃料ガスの供給とコンピューターシステムが停止したため、高炉や転炉、圧延設備など各設備を一時的に停止した。「生産再開の見通しは今のところ不明」という。

　八幡製鉄所の主力生産品目は自動車用鋼板。トヨタ自動車や日産自動車などの九州の自動車生産拠点などに供給しており、鋼板生産が滞れば自動車の生産にも影響が出る見通し。

---------------------------
ＴＢＳ、旧ソニープラザを買収　放送外収入拡充

　ＴＢＳは旧ソニー系の雑貨販売店「ＰＬＡＺＡ（プラザ）」などを傘下に持つスタイリングライフ・ホールディングス（東京・渋谷）を買収する。日興プリンシパル・インベストメンツから発行済み株式の51％を約210億円で取得する。景気低迷やネット広告との競合でＣＭ収入が落ち込んでおり、放送外収入を伸ばし収益力を回復させる。

　スタイリング社は「プラザ」を全国で約80店運営するプラザスタイル（旧ソニープラザ）や、仏料理レストランのマキシム・ド・パリなど、もともとソニーが手掛けていた小売会社5社を傘下に持つ。2006年にソニーから分離され、日興プリンシパルが51％出資した。ソニー（23％）や三井物産（15％）なども株主になっている。08年3月期の連結売上高は約730億円。中核のプラザスタイルは売上高432億円、経常利益15億円。

----------------------------
ネット個人献金推進　来月、超党派で勉強会

　自民党の加藤紘一氏、民主党の菅直人代表代行らが8月1日、インターネットを通じた政治献金を推進する超党派の勉強会を立ち上げる。「日本の大半のクレジットカード会社が献金へのカード利用を認めていない」などの課題を克服して少額の個人献金の手段として普及を目指す。

　自民党の河村建夫、世耕弘成両氏や民主党の鈴木寛、社民党の辻元清美、国民新党の糸川正晃各氏も参加する見込みだ。ネット献金は米大統領選予備選で注目を集め、オバマ氏の勝因にもあげられている。

-----------------------------
フグ産地偽装で捜索、アンコウと計６トン？　山口県警

　山口県下関市の水産物加工卸売会社「エツヒロ」が中国産のフグを国産と偽り販売していたとして、山口県警は29日、不正競争防止法違反（虚偽表示）の疑いで、森敏一社長を任意で事情聴取、本社を兼ねた森社長の自宅や同県長門市の加工工場など計十数カ所を家宅捜索した。

　農林水産省によると、アンコウも含め計6トンを偽装し出荷したとみられ、県警は仕入れ伝票や帳簿を押収し、全容解明を進める。

　調べでは、エツヒロは7月上旬、中国産トラフグの刺し身数十パックを熊本県産と偽って表示し、スーパーに卸した疑い。

　農水省の調査では、エツヒロは今年3―6月、中国産のフグを熊本県産や山口県産と偽って刺し身や鍋用の切り身を販売。アンコウも山口県産と偽装し、空揚げ用に加工した約1.1トンのほか、切り身も売っていた。主にフグは関東と四国、アンコウは関東と九州の小売店に卸していた。

　同社によると、2005年ごろから中国産を数十トン輸入したという。

---------------------------
乳製品で脳卒中予防、発症リスク3割減　厚労省研究班が追跡調査

　乳製品をよく食べてカルシウムを摂取すると、脳卒中になるリスクが最大で31％少なくなる――。厚生労働省研究班（主任研究者・津金昌一郎国立がんセンター予防研究部長）は29日、こんな疫学調査結果を発表した。食生活で牛乳やチーズ、ヨーグルトなどを適度に採り入れるようにすると脳卒中の予防効果が期待できるという。

　研究班の磯博康・大阪大学教授は全国の40―59歳の男女約4万人について、アンケートをもとに乳製品からのカルシウム摂取量を調べ、脳卒中の発症リスクとの関連を調べた。13年間の追跡期間中に、1321人が脳卒中になった。

　乳製品からのカルシウム摂取量が多い順に5つにグループ分けすると、最も摂取量が多いグループ（1日あたり120―130ミリグラム）は、最も少ないグループ（同・ほぼゼロ）と比べて脳卒中にかかるリスクが31％低くなっていた。カルシウムは高血圧や血液が固まるのを防ぐ作用があり、これが脳卒中を予防していると考えられるという。

-----------------------------
脳卒中：乳製品からカルシウム摂取、発症３割減－－厚労省研究班

　牛乳やチーズなどの乳製品からカルシウムを多く取る人は、ほとんど取らない人に比べて脳卒中の発症率が約３割少ないことが、厚生労働省研究班の大規模調査で明らかになった。国際医学誌電子版に今月掲載された。日本人の死因３位の脳卒中予防につながる成果で、牛乳なら１日１３０ミリリットル前後、スライスチーズなら１～１・５枚で効果が期待できるという。

　研究班は、岩手、秋田、長野、沖縄の４県在住の４０～５９歳の男女約４万人を、９０年から１２年間追跡し、食事など生活習慣と発病の関係を分析した。

　０２年までに、１３２１人が脳卒中を発症。乳製品から取ったカルシウムの量で５グループに分けると、１日の摂取量が平均１１６ミリグラムと最も多いグループは、ほぼゼロのグループに比べて脳卒中の発症率が０・６９倍にとどまった。大豆製品や野菜、魚など、乳製品以外から摂取したカルシウムでは、効果はみられなかった。

　研究班の磯博康・大阪大教授（公衆衛生学）は「カルシウム摂取が多いと血圧が低くなるため、脳卒中予防につながったのではないか。乳製品は他の食品よりも腸での吸収率が数倍高く、効率良くカルシウムが取れたようだ」と説明する。

　一方、心筋梗塞（こうそく）など心疾患の発症率は、カルシウム摂取の有無と関連がなかった。乳製品に多く含まれる飽和脂肪酸によって心疾患の発症率が高まり、カルシウムの効果が打ち消された結果と考えられ、乳製品の食べすぎは逆効果になる可能性が高い。

-----------------------------
16:50 GMT, Monday, 28 July 2008 17:50 UK
GM crop trials 'should be secret'
By Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent, BBC News

Combine harvester gathers crop (PA)

Senior researchers have called for the location of small open-air trials of GM crops to be kept secret.

The researchers say that vandalism of GM crop trials is holding back research in the area.

Current legislation requires the exact location of GM crop trials to be publicly available.

But according to those engaged in active research, that information is invariably used by anti-GM protesters to disrupt experiments.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), which licenses open air trials commented: "EU legislation says that we must disclose GM trial locations to the public.

"We are awating a European Court of Justice ruling, likely later this year, on a French legal case that should clarify how the EU law in this area can be interpreted by Member States."

"We now have 24-hour security, we have fences around materials"
Wayne Powell, National Institute of Agricultural Botany

Professor Howard Atkinson began a trial of GM potatoes earlier this year which he hoped would be resistant to disease.

The crops were pulled up three weeks after they were planted. Professor Atkinson is due to meet with the environment minister Phil Woolas in early September and will ask him to consider making changes to the current legislation.

"We should follow the same approach as that followed in Canada for very small scale trials of say 400 plants or so - where the risks are looked at by a panel but the location of those sites is not revealed," Professor Atkinson explained.

"The other possibility is to identify some national testing centre or centres where such trials could be run securely without the risk of zealots destroying them".

Security issues

Professor Atkinson said that open air trials were necessary to develop crops that could not only help farmers in the UK - but also help increase food production in Africa.

The disruption of trials, he said, has already led to companies moving away from the UK and academic research in the area has begun to decline.

"Academically, there has been a reduction in the attempt to do work of this type - they've found other problems to look at - but these are not generating practical benefits immediately and certainly not facing up to the big issue of food security in Africa," he said.

"As far as companies are concerned, they can do this sort of work elsewhere"

Jim Dunwell of Reading University and a member of ACRE, the Advisory Committee on Releases to the Environment, said there had been a sharp drop in the number of GM crop trials in Britain over the last few years with just one application for this year, down from about 20 to 30 per year in the late 1990s.

Local communities

Wayne Powell, who is the director of the National Institute of Agricultural Botany in Cambridge, was engaged in a trial of a crop that had the potential to benefit banana growers in Uganda. It was disrupted by protesters last year.

As a result, he said: "We now have 24-hour security, we have fences around materials."

However, anti-GM campaigners, such as Claire Oxborough of Friends of the Earth, believe that the trials should be stopped altogether.

She commented: "Friends of the Earth would have deep concerns about making them secret because of the potential risks that they pose.

"They are at the very early stages of development - we don't know the impact they'll have on the environment and on health and very often these trials are not set up to look at that."

She added: "What you don't want to do is get into a situation where in rural communities you have an air of distrust - rumours, speculation going on because no one knows what their neighbours might be growing.

"We need transparency - we need to know where these field trials are taking place so that farmers and the public can be adequately protected."

-------------------------
松下電器産業　リチウムイオン電池新工場を建設へ　関電発電所跡地
2008.7.29 14:26

　松下電器産業は２９日、大阪市住之江区の関西電力大阪発電所跡地に、投資総額１０００億円規模でリチウムイオン電池の新工場を建設することを決定した。３０日にも発表する。ノートパソコンや携帯電話向けの需要増加により世界的に急成長する充電池市場で、シェア拡大の布石を打つのが狙いで、大阪湾岸の大規模工場の集積がまた新たに進む。

　新工場は松下の子会社の松下電池工業が建設主体となり、平成２２年度にも稼働する。現在、松下はリチウムイオン電池を、守口本社工場（大阪府守口市）と和歌山工場（和歌山県紀の川市）、中国・無錫工場で月に計２５００万個生産しており、新工場が完成すれば生産能力が３倍程度に増強される計画という。

　リチウムイオン電池生産は三洋電機、ソニー、松下の３社で世界市場の約７割を占めるとされる。世界首位の三洋の月産能力は７０００万個程度（１９年度）。今年度に大阪府貝塚市と兵庫県南あわじ市の工場に新棟を建設するのをはじめ、今後３年間で充電池事業全体で１２５０億円を投資する予定。月産能力を２１年春には２～３割引き上げて、９０００万個程度にする。

　ソニーは、１２０億円を投じてシンガポールに建設していた新工場が８月に生産開始。韓国のサムスンＳＤなど海外勢も加えた競争が激しさを増している。

------------------------
承子さま、ご入学先は早大国際教養学部
2008.7.29 16:57

　高円宮家の長女、承子さまが秋から入学する都内の大学が、早稲田大であることが２９日、分かった。皇族として生まれた方が学習院以外の国内の大学で学ばれるのは珍しい。承子さまは７月１日に留学先の英国からご帰国。国際的な教養をさらに深めるため、９月入学がある早稲田大国際教養学部で学ばれることになった。現在２２歳の承子さまは編入ではなく、１年生として入学されるという。

--------------------------
証券会社サイト利用時間がピーク比4割減、株式市場低迷に連動

主要オンライントレードサイトの総利用時間の推移
　ネットレイティングスは29日、2008年6月度の国内におけるインターネット利用動向調査の結果を発表した。それによると、低迷する株式市場を反映して、主要証券会社が運営するオンライントレードサイトの総利用時間が今年に入り低水準で推移し、ピーク比で4割減となったことがわかった。

　2008年6月におけるオンライントレードサイトの総利用時間は約6.2億分。株価の順調な推移を受けて過去最高を記録した2006年1月の約 10.6億分から約40％減少した。ネットレイティングスでは、「オンライントレードサイトの利用時間は株価指数との相関が高く、株価の上昇局面では増加、逆に下降局面では減少している傾向がみられる」と分析している。

　個別のサイト利用時間では、利用者数が唯一100万人を超えたSBI証券（旧SBIイー・トレード証券）が約2.1億分でトップ。2位の大和証券（約7942億分）を2倍以上引き離した。このほか、最近の外国為替証拠金（FX）取引の流行を反映して、FX専門会社の外為どっとコム（約6665億分）が3位、老舗のひまわり証券（約2007億分）が10位にランクインしている。

　ネットレイティングス代表取締役社長の萩原雅之氏は今回のインターネット利用動向調査について、「市場の動きとサイト利用量が連動し、インターネット利用状況が市場動向を反映した指標となっていることを示したわかりやすい事例。一方、金融商品取引とインターネットの親和性の高さは、昨今のFX取引の認知度向上によるFX専門サイトの数や訪問者数の増加としても表れている」と話している。